The Sporting Hippeaux

BBA Awards Ballot

2011-10-09T12:50:00.000-07:00

AL Stan Musial Award:
1. Jose Bautista, TOR
2. Curtis Granderson, NYY
3. Miguel Cabrera, DET
4. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
5. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
6. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
7. Evan Longoria, TB
8. Adrian Beltre, TEX
9. Robinson Cano, NYY
10. Ian Kinsler, TEX

NL Stan Musial Award:
1. Ryan Braun, MIL
2. Justin Upton, ARZ
3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Matt Kemp, LAD
5. Troy Tulowitzki, COL
6. Albert Pujols, STL
7. Jose Reyes, NYM
8. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
9. Joey Votto, CIN
10. Lance Berkman, STL

AL Walter Johnson Award:
1. Justin Verlander, DET
2. C. C. Sabathia, NYY
3. Dan Haren, LAA

NL Walter Johnson Award:
1. Roy Halladay, PHI
2. Cliff Lee, PHI
3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD

AL Goose Gossage Award:
1. Mariano Rivera, NYY
2. David Robertson, NYY
3. Jose Valverde, DET

NL Goose Gossage Award:
1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL
2. Sergio Romo, SFG
3. Eric O'Flaherty, ATL

AL Willie Mays Award:
1. Alexi Ogando, TEX
2. Michael Pineda, SEA
3. Ivan Nova, NYY

NL Willie Mays Award:
1. Craig Kimbrel, ATL
2. Freddie Freeman, ATL
3. Brandon Beachy, ATL

AL Connie Mack Award:
1. Joe Maddon, TB
2. Ron Washington, TEX
3. Jim Leyland, DET

NL Connie Mack Award:
1. Kirk Gibson, ARZ
2. Ron Roenicke, MIL
3. Charlie Manuel, PHI

"Is WAR the new RBI?" Link Dump

2011-09-08T22:31:00.000-07:00

I've had some requests from friends, old and new, to link to all the various places where my "Is WAR the new RBI?" post at IIATMS was constructively critiqued, lambasted, debated, and/or lionized. Over at IIATMS, we are moving on and I won't be writing any more on the subject in the near future. After all, the postseason is nearly upon us. So, I'll post the link dump here. After all, considering SPH hasn't been updated for six months, if you're here, this is probably the reason (traffic shot up just a touch this week). Beware, I'm creating a timesuck. If you plan to read all the digital ink spilled on this subject, especially in the comments and message boards, you better make yourself comfortable. If you come across something else I should look at/add, let me know.

"Is WAR the new RBI"? - Hippeaux

"The Limits of WAR or Ben Zobrist Isn't Really a Superstar?" - Rob Neyer, SB Nation

"WAR is Not the New RBI (but It Has Its Own Flaws)" - William J., Yankee Analysts

"'WAR doesn't work'" - Tangotiger, Inside the Book

"What WAR is...what WAR is not" - Tangotiger

"In Defense of the Royal 'We'" - Hippeaux

"WAR is a good, imperfect, idea" - Brien, IIATMS

"Legitimacy" - Mark Smith, IIATMS

"UZR bias by FB%" - Tangotiger

"To Hippeaux" - Tangotiger

"A Critique of WAR" - Craig Calceterra, NBC Hardball Talk

"In Defense of WAR" - Bryan O'Connor, Replacement Level Baseball Blog

"Finally, a Stat Guy Challenges the Power of WAR" - The Big Lead

"Link: Is WAR the new RBI?" - ESPN SweetSpot Blog

"WAR Not All It's Cracked Up To Be?" - Rob Castellano, Amazin' Avenue

"Going to WAR over...assumptions vs. science" - jemanji, Seattle Sports Insider

"Should Defense by More Consistent than Offense?" - Sean Forman, Baseball Reference

"WAR Back in the News" - Bill Baer, Crashburn Alley

"WAR CRITIQUE" - Baseball Musings

Message Boards:

Baseball Think Factory

Pro Sports Daily

BBA All-Star Ballot

2011-06-26T15:14:00.000-07:00

American League:

C - Russell Martin, NYY
1B - Miguel Cabrera, DET
2B - Howie Kendrick, LAA
3B - Kevin Youkilis, BOS
SS - Alexei Ramirez, CWS
LF - Brett Gardner, NYY
CF - Curtis Granderson, NYY
RF - Jose Bautista, TOR
DH - David Ortiz, BOS

National League:

C - Miguel Montero, ARZ
1B - Prince Fielder, MIL
2B - Rickie Weeks, MIL
3B - Scott Rolen, CIN
SS - Jose Reyes, NYM
LF - Ryan Braun, MIL
CF - Matt Kemp, LAD
RF - Justin Upton, ARZ

Hippeaux is Taking His Talents to...the Yankees!?!

2011-04-19T10:24:00.000-07:00

After four seasons covering MLB with my own proprietary blend of sabermetrics, soul, and baseball humanism, I'm abandoning the neon and black. Generating traffic in the blogosphere is no easy feat and I'm proud of the extent to which the SPH has grown. I'm thankful to all those who have read, commented, and corresponded with me. My writing and analysis have improved by virtue of this outlet and your feedback. I look forward to our continued discussion of all things baseball. However, it will be aided by a new venue.

Jason Rosenberg and his staff at It's About The Money have been kind enough to welcome me onboard. Without the responsibility for single-handedly keeping a site functional and up-to-date, I hope my posts will be more consistently inventive...though they will also be considerably less frequent (right now I'm aiming for a weekly schedule).

Yes, IIATMS is a Yankee-centric blog, complete with a Yankee Stadium masthead and a pseudo-pinstriped design, so I understand that those readers fond of my spiteful rants about Jeter, A-Rod, and the rest of the Evil Empire may be disappointed by the new digs. Get over it. IIATMS is about much more than just the Yankees these days. In truth, as its title suggests, it always has been. In recent weeks, Larry Behrendt's multi-part series on the 2011 payroll numbers has provided a variety of insights into the game's constantly evolving fiscal structure. Josh Weinstock recently wrote an analysis of Phil Hughes' curveball which not only sets a high bar for sabermetric research, but also offers fascinating insight into the psychology of a young, struggling pitcher. Brien Jackson attacks the conventional wisdom of "pitching to contact" through the specific example of Francisco Liriano. Chip Buck expanded upon his observations by looking a contact rates. And, as my first contribution to IIATMS, I added my two cents. I love this stuff and I'm proud to be party to it.

The Sporting Hippeaux will remain up (if for no other reason, so I can access my own archives) and I may occasionally post a rant if I don't think it's appropriate to the tenor of my new home, but in all likelihood, this could be my final post. It's been a blast.

Tout Wars Mixed 2011, Part II: Going to the Well Early and Often

2011-04-13T18:34:00.000-07:00

The Tout Wars auctions were held this March in the beautiful New York headquarters of MLB Advanced Media, atop the Chelsea Market, overlooking the Hudson River. MLBAM is responsible for the maintenance of the wildly successful mlb.com and mlb.tv, as well as contributing to the MLB Network, now in its third season. Their offices are befittingly sleek and state-of-the-art, but not free of the tendency towards corny fanboyism which seems a requisite for the baseball-obsessed. The decor tends towards red, white, and blue. There's enough figurines and signed memorabilia to make an Applebee's manager envious. The central conference room forgoes the corporate chic of sharp lines, plate glass, steel, and leather for corrugated pine and aluminum. From the outside it looks a little like an inverted waffle cone.

Inside, on this particular morning, it was crowded. Fifteen participants in the Mixed League auction were joined by an auctioneer, several Baseball HQ employees, and a variety of interested observers, including fantasy baseball celebs like Ron Shandler and Lawr Michaels. As you might expect, there were nearly as many screens as people. In addition to a 50-inch flatscreen which adorned the front of the conference room, on which the official results were being entered, each participant had a laptop, as well as, in many cases, a Blackberry. The final minutes of draft preparation produced a clicking cacophony. Several owners put the finishing touches on customized draft software which, from what I could tell, as the draft unfolded, automatically updated their pricing structures to compensate for increasing positional scarcities and cycles of inflation and deflation. Fancy stuff.

Thirteen people were crowded around the table at the center of the room, amidst them a nest of adapters, ethernet cables, auxiliary mice, and power strips. Against the far wall, two apparent luddites rested their elbows on the small table they shared and looked on, seemingly bemused. Nando Di Fino of the Wall Street Journal and Gene McCaffrey of Wise Guy Baseball chose to manage their auctions using that classic technology, pen and paper. Coincidently, they both also went with a classic strategy, familiar to most as "studs and scrubs."

Nando, a stubbly, gregarious, and newlywed twenty-something treated McCaffrey, a grizzled fantasy veteran whose work is frequently spoken of in the hushed tones of acolytes, with the appropriate reverence. Afterwards he told me McCaffrey's presence was perhaps his favorite aspect of the day. As the auction proceeded, a copy of Wise Guy Baseball 2011 circulated the outer rim of the room and was perused with considerable interest. But, respect did not keep Nando from bidding aggressively on many of the same players as McCaffrey in the early going, as both were extremely active. By the time the first break came around, five rounds into a twenty-nine round auction, both McCaffrey and Di Fino had spent more than $200, far more than anybody using a computer. Here's what they had to show for it:

Nando Di Fino:

1B Mark Teixeira $37
3B Evan Longoria $36
OF Josh Hamilton $29
SP Felix Hernandez $28
2B Dan Uggla $27
SP Jered Weaver $18
SP Zack Greinke $18
2B Chase Utley $11

Gene McCaffrey:

1B Adrian Gonzalez $37
2B Robinson Cano $31
SP Cliff Lee $23
SP Josh Johnson $20
RP Brian Wilson $20
OF Colby Rasmus $16
SP Matt Cain $15
SP Chris Carpenter $14
C Matt Wieters $10

I'll touch on their specific choices a little later, but for now I'll merely observe that each netted at least two players who would likely be "first-rounders" if this were a standard snake draft. Also, in a year when the conventional wisdom was to "wait on pitching," because frontline pitchers are more plentiful following the so-called "year of the pitcher," both team have at least a trio of Aces.

Di Fino says, "I wasn't crazy about players in the middle rounds. I liked a lot of second/third round type players, than liked a lot of 14-20th round players. I just didn't care for the players in between. There were literally two sheets in the middle of my draft pack that had no highlighted names. Just a bunch at the start and a bunch at the end."

Obviously, at an auction, you can't predict when players will come off the board quite as effectively as you can at a draft, but it is still true that the best players usually go early. In Tout Wars Mixed, only one player went for $30 or more after the first break. Five rounds later, nobody was willing to spend as much as $20 on any one player, as pretty much all the premium talent was gone.

McCaffrey argues that mixed league auctions don't abide by a consistent, "rational" pricing structure, because there are so many more or less replacement level players available at the bottom of the player pool. The depth of the player pool doesn't mean, as many players believe, that you should save money because there will still be big-league regulars and mid-range talent available in the late rounds, but rather you should be willing to bid even higher on uncommon talent and consistent production, because several decent players will simply "fall to you" at the end of an auction.

As you can see, though the tenor of their explanations is different, their rationales are pretty similar. Both McCaffrey and Di Fino sat quietly through much of the middle of the auction. Though they had the fullest rosters after five rounds of nominations, both were still unfinished we the auction reached round 25. The players which "fell to them," costing $1 apiece, looked like this:

Di Fino:

C Jeff Mathis
C Chris Snyder
1B Matt LaPorta
1B Justin Smoak
OF Jonny Gomes
SP Brandon Webb
RP Joel Peralta

McCaffrey:

C Josh Thole
1B/OF Garrett Jones
2B Freddy Sanchez
OF Seth Smith
SP Brandon Beachy

While you may not get excited about any of the above, all of the position players begin the season with guaranteed playing time and several, especially Smoak, LaPorta, Beachy, and Smith have considerable upside. It's very hard to predict that Smith or Gomes, playing nearly everyday in good lineups and hitters parks, will be worth substantially less than Jason Kubel ($11), Bobby Abreu ($10), Raul Ibanez ($6), and Nate McClouth ($6).

Though their strategies were similar, the early returns are very different. Nando was willing to roll the dice on injury-risks with high upside. To be fair, it's way too early to judge any team accurately, but Nando's D.L. is damn full with Longoria, Hamilton, Greinke, Utley, Webb, and Manny Ramirez all shelved. McCaffrey on the other hand has had some good luck. His lynchpins, Cano and Gonzalez, have picked up right where they left off. Pablo Sandoval has started strong, as has Carlos Quentin, following down years. The routinely unexceptional Seth Smith has been on fire. Alexi Ogando and Brandon Beachy both made their teams' rotations, somewhat unexpectedly.

Is he lucky or good? I'd bet on the latter.

Coming Soon...Interview and Analysis with Scott Swanay, The Fantasy Sherpa.

The Payoff Part Deux (Milwaukee Brewers)

2011-04-08T11:31:00.000-07:00

In case it hasn't already become clear, you can expect to see a lot of Brewers coverage this season. The Crew, who have been among my favorite franchises ever since Doug Melvin took over as GM, have an especially high Narrative Likability Factor in 2011. As I discussed this offseason, with the free agency of Prince Fielder imminent, the Brewers are "going for it," as was clearly evidenced by the mortgaging of the farm system for the short-term services of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

One of the reasons to root for Milwaukee in 2011 is that, led by Melvin, the Brewers are among the franchises who have been "doing it right" according to the conventional wisdom regarding success in smaller markets. The core of the team is homegrown. With the exception of the ill-timed signing of Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee has avoided buying up free agents at a premium, instead extending young players from their own system at discount rates (Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, etc.) and handing out low-risk deals to veteran role players (Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Nyjer Morgan, etc.).

As a result, the Brewers not only have an impressive cast of talent, but they have an identity, as most of the core players have been together since they were minor-leaguers. That identity isn't only good for clubhouse camaraderie, but is also appealing to the fan base, which has quietly become one of the most supportive in the National League. Since Melvin took over in 2003, Brewers attendance has gone from 50% of capacity to over 80% of capacity, an increase of nearly 15,000 fans per game.

As was revealed by the Opening Day payroll numbers released earlier this week, Melvin's strategy for building a contender in Milwaukee has emphasized commitments from ownership, as well as deft drafting and player development, timely acquisitions, and improved marketing. The 2011 Brewers represent the largest percentage increase in payroll of any team in baseball since 2004, which happens to be Melvin's second year on the job. Unlike ownership in many other markets, the Brewers owners met improved support from the community with a deeper investment in the long term competitiveness in the team. Milwaukee's $85.5 Million Opening Day payroll puts them in the middle of the pack (#17) among all MLB franchises, but it represents a 211% increase since '04. Melvin grew this payroll gradually (in step with attendance) until he reached the plateau he's maintained pretty consistently since 2008.

Pundits like myself can commend Melvin all we want for his personnel decisions and his deft economizing, but the fact remains, he is nearing the point where he will be judged by his results. As fun as this collection of Brewers players are to watch, they've got only two winning seasons and one playoff appearance during Melvin's tenure. With the face of the franchise in his final season, it's imperative the Brewers improve upon that record. During the Opening Weekend against the reigning NL Central champs, the Cincinnati Reds, you could see that the pressure was on. The Brewers hit just .223 against the Reds, with an abysmal 26/5 K/BB ratio. Their bullpen got roughed up, including a painful three-run walkoff homer against closer John Axford on Opening Day.

But the Brewers bounced back in a major way this week, taking three in a row from Atlanta, another presumed NL powerhouse. Gallardo asserted his Ace status by stopping the losing streak with a dominant complete-game two-hitter and Axford netted saves in back-to-back appearances. The Brewers need to carry this momentum forward, as their performance in the season's first two months will say a lot about this team. They will have to face Atlanta and Cincinnati again, as well as Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Los Angeles before Greinke's anticipated return. If they can stay above .500 during this opening stretch, Greinke's comeback could provide them with a little confidence going into interleague play.

(Greinke is due back sometime around the middle of May. Considering his injury is similar to that which delayed the start of Cliff Lee's season in 2010, I don't worry too much about his ability to stay on the field and pitch well once he returns. Lee, after all, was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball last year, despite his late start.)

The biggest challenge for the Brewers comes in June, when they open a 15-game tussle with some of the best teams in the American League. The schedule-makers did not do Milwaukee any favors. They will face the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road, as well as the Rays at home, and their "interleague rival," the AL Central Champion Twins, home and away. Four AL teams, all of which won 85 or more games in 2010 and all of whom are expected to perform at close to that level, if not better, in 2011. Compare that to Cincinnati, who gets the Yankees at home, skips the Red Sox entirely, and gets to play their rivalry series against the lowly Indians. Or the Cardinals, who somehow manage to avoid both New York and Boston, plus get six games against arguably the worst team in all of baseball, the Royals. It would be a substantial accomplishment for the Brewers to get near .500 against their AL opponents, while their primary rivals will have a significantly easier time of it.

It's important to note that, even when the Brewers lose Fielder to free agency this coming offseason, they will not be going back to the drawing board. Somewhat ingeniously, Melvin has gotten Braun, Weeks, and Gallardo under team control through 2015. Greinke, Marcum, and Corey Hart remain under contract through at least 2012. As such, it would be a mistake to argue that if they miss the playoffs in 2011 their window will absolutely be closed. However, their is no reason to believe the Reds will be getting any worse, while 2012 will bring the Cubs some much-needed salary relief, they could be major players in the free agent market this coming winter. While the NL Central is already a rather deep, competitive division, it could get even tougher in coming years. Yet another reason Milwaukee's management clearly feels their time is now.

Opening Statements

2011-04-06T11:15:00.000-07:00

The season is but a week old. It's best not to overreact to half a dozen games. As things stand, the Royals, Orioles, and Mets are all division leaders. Something tells me that's not the way things are going to play out. However, we spend the Hot Stove season pouring over payrolls and depth charts, imagining how Carl Crawford will look fielding a line drive off the Green Monster. During Spring Training we watch odd melanges of half-assed veterans, anxious invitees, and youngsters playing out of position and hitting against pitchers who may or may not have permission to throw their curveballs. So, there really are instances when a team takes the field on Opening Day and you say, "Eureka!"

Nowhere was that response more pervasive than in Arlington this past weekend. Certainly, I expected the defending American League Champions to be contenders again, but watching the Rangers club their way past the prohibitive AL favorites (Red Sox) I was reminded that last year's team may have only scratched the surface of its potential. The Rangers have 30 extra-base hits in five games. A significant portion of that damage has been done by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler, two of the more injury-prone players in recent history, so there is a high likelihood that the Texas lineup will not be able to maintain its current depth for 162. Nevertheless, every reporter who overhyped the Michael Young fiasco, bemoaned the departure of Cliff Lee, criticized the Adrian Beltre contract, or in any way contributed to the general impression that the 2010 Rangers were a fluke did his own team a considerable disservice. Last season, the Rangers were dogged by controversy throughout the offseason and Ron Washington used it to spur them to an unprecedented performance. It might've been difficult for them to re-harness that energy were they treated as the AL's foremost powerhouse. But they weren't. And after another offseason filled with criticism and second-guessing the Rangers are again playing with a chip on their shoulders. They reminded us that even if they aren't the best team in the American League, they are at least in the conversation.

A similar situation has developed in Cincinnati. The Reds dominated their division in 2010. And, like the Rangers, their team has youth, depth, and payroll certainty, making it very likely that their best years are still ahead of them. For some reason, however, punditry has favored the Cardinals this preseason, despite the fact that they lost their Ace and did very little to improve the problems which caused them to fall back of the Reds last year. It pains me to say it, but the Cardinals just aren't a very well-constructed baseball team right now. The real threat to a Cincinnati repeat in the NL Central is the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Reds made the first statement in a season-long battle by sweeping the Brewers on Opening Weekend. Their underrated workhorse, Bronson Arroyo, the "Mark Buehrle of the National League," shrugged off his spring bout of mononucleosis to throw a seven-inning gem on Sunday afternoon, following two close games, one which the Reds won on a walk-off homer by Ramon Hernandez. The Reds drew first blood, which means very little in the long run, but it should act as a reminder that they feature premier performers on both sides of the ball, something which few NL teams can boast.

A strong finish to 2010, an acclaimed manager, an active offseason, a vaunted farm system, and now a 4-0 start have made the Orioles a favorite darkhorse in the American League. However, I'm more impressed by their AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays. One could argue that both teams are vying for, at best, third place, but the increased parity in the division makes it possible that a few breaks could make it possible for one of these teams to sneak into the Wild Card race. Ricky Romero's manhandling of the Twins furthered the impression that he could be the breakout pitcher of 2011. (You can see more on Romero in my "21st Century Cy" post from the preseason.) And, in the early going, the Jays have continued the power display of 2010, but with more balance (.304 AVG, .371 OBP, 17 BB, 19 K, 3 SB). Obviously, it's a small sample size and we should not underestimate the fact that Twins are 6-20 against the Blue Jays since 2008. It's clearly a good matchup for Toronto to open with, but I think the Jays will make everybody uncomfortable in 2011, especially when playing in the Skydome...er, Rogers Centre. They've got an imposing, circular lineup and an frightening young pitching staff. They could be erratic, but Romero, Kyle Drabek, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil are all guys with incredible "stuff." No lineup looks forward to facing a stretch of pitcher like this, any one of whom could show up and be completely unhittable. Whether they win 80 or 90, this is going to be a fun team to watch in 2011.

I think the fans of the D-Backs have a lot to look forward to. The team is building around Justin Upton, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, and Daniel Hudson. And everything about Kirk Gibson seems perfectly suited to this process. However, as the D-Backs opened their season in Colorado we witnessed the difference between a team with lots of a potential and a team who's realized that potential. Following the surprising runs by the Giants and Padres in 2010, it's ease to forget that the Rockies were the favorites for much of the season and have been to the playoffs twice in the last four years. They are an efficient, well-oiled ballclub. They take extra bases. They turn double plays. They limit baserunners and longballs. They've got a deep bullpen and an impressive bench. There are two other good teams in their division, the Giants and the Dodgers, both probably have deeper rotations than the Rockies, and in the NL West, the deepest rotation has, in recent years, usually been the key to victory. But unlike the Giants, who are defensively challenged and the Dodgers, who trot out players you thought were retired (and probably should be) at three or four positions everyday, the Rockies are above average in every aspect of the game. Is a well-rounded team better than one which absolutely dominates one aspect of the game? Not necessarily, especially when that aspect is starting pitching. But those that believe that NL West race is all about the L.A. v. S.F. rivalry are ignoring an elephant in the room.

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...

2011-04-02T10:57:00.000-07:00

NL East:

Thanks in large part to the foresight and creativity of a front office led by CEO David Montgomery, former GM and advisor Pat Gillick, and current GM Ruben Amaro, the Phillies have been to the playoffs in four straight years and, following an offseason which featured the surprise return of Cliff Lee, they are the prohibitive favorites in the National League once again.

However, they've had a rough spring. First, they lost the services of their promising rookie outfielder, Dominic Brown, to a wrist injury which will probably cost him at least half the season. Also, their brittle closer, Brad Lidge, has been sidelined for at least a few weeks. And, most importantly, the team's best hitter and defensive whiz, Chase Utley, is beleaguered by an injury for which there is, at this point, neither a confident diagnosis or a timetable for return, fueling speculation that the five-time All-Star may be out for the season, if not longer.

With Jayson Werth, the Phillies most productive hitter in 2010, now playing for a division rival, there are now some gaping holes in Philadelphia's lineup, which not so long ago was the best in all of baseball. They opened their season yesterday with Jimmy Rollins and his 737 OPS since 2007 hitting third, while the 38-year-old Raul Ibanez provided protection for Ryan Howard.

But, while the Phillies offense may be a shadow of its former glory, the rotation is being heralded as one of the greatest ever. That may be presumptuous, but the Phillies do have a quartet of Aces and arguably the two best starting pitchers in the game, Lee and Roy Halladay. Teams like San Francisco and San Diego proved only a year ago that a deep, dominating rotation can take you a long way, especially in the National League. And, despite its growing flaws, nobody's comparing the Phillies lineup to the Padres.

The Braves, who eeked into the playoffs as a Wild Card last season, have been a somewhat popular pick this preseason to upset Philadelphia. Their viability depends upon the progress of some very young players on whom they are depending heavily: Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor. Although I'm willing to admit this is a frightening collection of talent, I'm not sure we can expect it to avoid the inconsistency which is generally expected from young cores. If they are to do so, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Nate McClouth will need to be healthy and productive...

I would, in fact, observe that the Florida Marlins are a team composed very similarly to the Braves. They've got tons of talent on both sides of the ball, but much of it is not yet established at the major-league level. What the Marlins have that the Braves do not is a proven stud in his prime hitting in the middle of the lineup. I think this gives them a minor advantage, although I could see either team winning anywhere from 75 to 95 games with a few good breaks.

Philadelphia Phillies 91 W
Florida Marlins 86 W
Atlanta Braves 85 W
Washington Nationals 66 W
New York Mets 62 W

MVP Candidate: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Cy Young Candidate: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
Comeback of the Year: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
Breakout Candidates: Logan Morrison, Marlins; Anibal Sanchez, Marlins; Ian Desmond, Nationals

NL Central:

The Brewers are a "wild card" team in every sense of the word. They have an extremely high Narrative Likability Factor (for me, they are this year's version of the 2010 Rangers).

In last year's preview of the NL Central there were a few predictions on which I can hang my hat. First, while everybody else was picking the Cardinals to run away with the title, I noted that they were "not as complete as some would have you believe," lacked "a whole lot of compensatory depth," and that "the Cardinals lineup looks a little tepid." Correct on all counts. Thank you.

I also noted that "the real Wild Card here is the Cincinnati Reds" and that "they could become an NL version of the '08 Rays." Again, not terribly far off.

Unfortunately, the team I expected to outperform both the Cardinals and the Reds was the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished back of both, in third place.

The Brewers major problem was a familiar one: starting pitching. They addressed it in a major way this offseason by trading for both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. As I wrote a few months back, these trades signal Doug Melvin's intention to "go for it" after nearly a decade of patient building. Melvin mortgaged the farm for two front-line starters to slot in between Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf. Next offseason he faces the possibility of losing two of his offensive lynchpins, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, potentially pressing the reset button on all his work and progressively raised expectations. To retain his job, I think Melvin needs a playoff appearance, at the very least.

Surmounting Cincinnati is, however, no mean task. The Reds were the NL's offensive powerhouse in 2010. There's no obvious reason why that should change. In addition, they seem to have an army of high-upside young pitchers. This is a team built to win not only now, but for many years to come. The Reds have pretty much their entire roster under control for at least the next two seasons, with several key players wrapped up into the middle of the decade.

Cincinnati Reds 97 W

Milwaukee Brewers 93 W

Chicago Cubs 82 W

St. Louis Cardinals 74 W

Pittsburgh Pirates 70 W

Houston Astros 63 W

MVP Candidate: Prince Fielder, Brewers & Ryan Braun, Brewers

Cy Young Candidate: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds

Comeback of the Year: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs

Breakout Candidates: Jay Bruce, Reds; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

NL West:

From my perspective, this is the toughest division to call in 2011. It's hard to argue with the reigning World Series Champs, who have a dynamic young core and the potential to get better via the resurgence of Pablo Sandoval and the ascendence of Brandon Belt.

That said, we should remember that prior to 2010, this division was considered a two horse race between the Rockies and the Dodgers. Each of those teams also possesses an impressive stable of young talent entering their primes. As such, the NL West features three teams with established identities, but who still have plenty of upside and who are hungry to prove themselves. The Giants will have a hard time shaking the label of "fluke," given their status as an extreme underdog going into the 2010 playoffs. The Dodgers, after getting to the NLCS two years in a row with basically the same team, are eager to shake off the bad taste of 2010, only their second losing season in the last 11 years, during which the McCourt Divorce dominated the headlines. And the Rockies, who always play with a chip on their shoulders, feel as though they have the makings of a dynasty, having locked up Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez through at least 2014.

Whatever I choose, I feel I've got a strong chance of being wrong.

Colorado Rockies 93 W

Los Angeles Dodgers 90 W

San Francisco Giants 87 W

Arizona D-Backs 76 W

San Diego Padres 63 W

MVP Candidate: Justin Upton, D-Backs

Cy Young Candidate: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt, Giants

Comeback of the Year: Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Breakout Candidates: Ian Kennedy, D-Backs; Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, Rockies; Brandon Allen, D-Backs

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Don't Bet On A Darkhorse In The American League

2011-04-01T15:13:00.000-07:00

AL East:

For a decade, the AL East was an annul two-horse race between the Yankees and Red Sox. In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays force there way into playoff picture. Now, with the Blue Jays and Orioles both fielding impressive young rosters for whom winning records are very realistic, nobody looks forward to visiting any of these cities. The vaunted East is not far from being a wide-open competition.

But not this year...

I think the Jays and Rays will both be better than .500 teams, and I expect Buck Showalter's "Baby Birds" to have their best season since 2004, but when all is said and done, the Yankees and Red Sox will again be headed for the postseason.

Following an active offseason, in which Theo Epstein brought in a pair of premier hitters, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, to add to a lineup which already promised to be buoyed by the returns of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury, the BoSox are the odds-on favorite not only to win the East, but also the AL Pennant, and the World Series. They've got a loaded lineup, a deep rotation, and a dynamic bullpen.

The Yankees are far less complete. They have only once truly dependable starting pitcher. They have a very uncertain catching situation. And they depend upon an aging core, several of whom are coming off down seasons. Still, they've got an abundance of talent, especially on offense, and while it would hardly surprise me if they caught a few bad breaks and fell back of the Rays and/or Jays, I'm having a hard time talking myself into making that prediction.

Boston Red Sox 97 W
New York Yankees 91 W
Toronto Blue Jays 89 W
Tampa Bay Rays 87 W
Baltimore Orioles 78 W

MVP Candidate: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
Cy Young Candidate: C. C. Sabathia, Yankees
Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays
Comeback of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
Breakout Candidates: Ricky Romero, Blue Jays; Adam Jones, Orioles; Brian Matusz, Orioles; Brett Cecil, Blue Jays; Matt Joyce, Rays; Sean Rodriguez, Rays; Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

AL Central:

Many will bet the chalk in the AL Central. The Twins had an impressive 2010 campaign and none of their divisional opponents made big splashes this offseason. The Twins do have a few things to hang their hats on. They've got a plethora of power-hitters. They've got a three-time batting champ. They've got arguably the best pitcher in the division. They've also got some serious uncertainty at the back of the rotation. They've got unproven players at three infield positions. And their cleanup hitter is still recovering from a concussion he suffered nine months ago.

Chicago relatively quietly improved themselves this offseason. Their big move was the addition of free agent, Adam Dunn, who give them a consistent power source to slide into the lineup between Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin. They bolstered their bullpen with the addition of veteran relievers, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman. They added an inexpensive high-upside outfielder in Lastings Milledge. And they brought back clubhouse leaders Konerko, A. J. Pierzynski, and Omar Vizquel.

More importantly, however, the Sox have plenty of depth in their rotation and a handful of young players who could make much bigger contributions in 2011. Foremost among these is Gordon Beckham, the 24-year-old second-baseman who struggled mightily in the first half of his sophomore season, but made adjustments and hit .310 in the second half. The White Sox could also get substantial contributions from rookies Chris Sale and Brent Morel, and sophomores Sergio Santos and Dayan Viciedo.

I often preach the importance of depth in the marathon season. The White Sox have it. The Twins don't.

Chicago White Sox 92 W
Minnesota Twins 86 W
Detroit Tigers 77 W
Cleveland Indians 70 W
Kansas City Royals 62 W

MVP Candidate: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Cy Young Candidate: Francisco Liriano, Twins
Rookie of the Year: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins
Comeback of the Year: Jake Peavy, White Sox
Breakout Candidates: Max Scherzer, Tigers; Gordon Beckham, White Sox; Kila Ka'aihue, Royals; Asdrubel Cabrera, Indians

AL West:

Sure, they'll miss Cliff Lee. But the rumors of the Rangers demise have been greatly exaggerated. Remember, Texas was five games up in the West and playing at a .581 clip before Lee ever threw a pitch for them in 2010.

The ever-optimistic Angels fans will rally behind their solid rotation and their improved bullpen depth, but the Angels ability to score runs remains in doubt, especially with Kendrys Morales remaining on the D.L. to begin the season and still no long-term solution at third base.

The major threat to a Texas repeat is actually the Oakland Athletics. Billy Beane helped move his offense towards respectability by adding David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui, but the A's still don't possess a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter. However, teams like the Giants and Padres have proven that mediocre offense can be overcome by superlative pitching. The A's have potentially superlative pitching. If the rotation keeps Oakland in the race into July, expect Beane to chase impending free agent rentals.

Texas Rangers 91 W
Oakland Athletics 87 W
Los Angeles Angels 75 W
Seattle Mariners 68 W

MVP Candidate: Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Cy Young Candidate: Jered Weaver, Angels
Rookie of the Year: Chris Carter, Athletics
Comeback of the Year: Chone Figgins, Mariners
Breakout Candidates: Brett Anderson, Athletics; Julio Borbon, Rangers; Jason Vargas, Mariners

Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team

2011-03-30T18:24:00.000-07:00

As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux. I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job. Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars. I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati. In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011. I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.

Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees

What's new, right? Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true. For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked. After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world. Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues). The argument for Martin goes like this:

1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with. So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.

2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline. He's going to get on base. Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).

3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).

4.) He's still just 28.

(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price. I recommend this course of action in deep leagues. If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals

I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008. The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors. This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer). Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring. Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory. Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010. Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck. Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning. It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age. He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field. Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem? Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia. You want a bastion of health at this thin position? Get in line.

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do. Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke." It just doesn't happen. His belly has disappeared. His skills haven't.

Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals

Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado. Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign. Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues. Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection. Buy with confidence.

Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers

There are different breeds of "sleepers." Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species. That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far. Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton. This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder. A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield. When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case. If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else. This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS. Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.

Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins

For some reason, people hate Delmon Young. I don't know exactly why it is. Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into. Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton. To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid. I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old. Remember what you were doing when you were 24? Who's the bigger "bust"? Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs. Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances. I wouldn't expect him to match that total. But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline. I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!" Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom. Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons. Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox. Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach. And, really, that's about all he can't hit. Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS. Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.

The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.

Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.

Here are the underrated veterans:

Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs

No more Lou Pinella. No more Derrek Lee. No more Carlos Silva. No more Milton Bradley. Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP. I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011. As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues. Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong. Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt). Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP. Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010. This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.

Tout Wars Mixed 2011 Pt. 1: Backstops & The Bruce

2011-03-27T19:32:00.000-07:00

The 2011 Tout Wars Mixed League Auction began with the nomination of Jay Bruce. Every year a few players generate an abundance of buzz during the fantasy baseball prep season. This year, nobody has been more buzzworthy than Bruce. Not yet 24, the Reds rightfielder is now three seasons into his major-league career and in 2010 he managed to both stay off the disabled list and show enough patience to manage a respectable average (.281). A torrential second half (.306 AVG, 15 HR, 951 OPS) adds to the perception that Bruce is on the verge of superstardom, as many have been expecting every since he broke into the bigs.

So, perhaps, Andy Behrens of Yahoo!, Tout Wars Mixed defending champion, believed Bruce was the perfect player to generate active, maybe even excessive, bidding from the 15 fantasy baseball "experts" who were itching to start spending. Indeed, more than half the assembled players got a bid in before Dave Feldman of MLB.com rostered Bruce for $19. Although by no means an obscene number (the experts do occasionally practice restraint!), it did turn out to be more than was paid for more established outfielders like Curtis Granderson ($18), Shane Victorino ($17), and Corey Hart ($14). It was the first of several cases of Touts going to the mat for popular young "breakthrough" candidates. Clayton Kershaw, for instance, cost Fred Zinkie of FantasyBaseball.com $19, more than former Cy Young candidates like Zack Greinke ($18), Dan Haren ($18), Ubaldo Jimenez ($17), and David Price ($17), none of whom are exactly "over the hill" themselves.

Following a year in which many of the best fantasy producers - guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Jered Weaver, and Jimenez - had been relatively unheralded in the preseason, the temptation to pay for "upside" was even greater. Minor bidding wars developed at some surprising places. The 21-year-old Florida outfielder, Mike Stanton, who, in both his impressive power and his 34.3 K%, is very reminiscent of Jay Bruce circa 2008, somehow managed to cost more than Bruce, and more than Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, or B. J. Upton. Another sophomore uberprospect, Carlos Santana, whose rookie season was cut short by an unfortunate and catastrophic collision at home plate, though he possesses all of 46 games of major-league experience, was Tout Wars second most expensive backstop, topping steady producers like Victor Martinez and Brian McCann, as well as the NL Rookie of the Year and postseason hero, Buster Posey.

Catchers, in general, were nominated early and often. Before the first break, Joe Mauer ($27), Posey ($23), McCann ($21), Geovany Soto ($17), Yadier Molina ($11), Matt Wieters ($10), John Jaso ($7), A. J. Pierzynski ($5), Russell Martin ($4), Nick Hundley ($3), Jesus Montero ($2), and Yorbit Torrealba ($2) had all been rostered. Certainly, this explains to some extent the furious bidding on Santana ($24), Mike Napoli ($20), and others, later in the day, when the backstop pool was getting thin. The Touts took very diverse approaches to the run on catching. Zinkie and Seth Trachtman saw an opportunity to create a large marginal advantage at the position by nabbing two premium players. Trachtman spent nearly 20% of his budget on V-Mart and Mauer. Others, like Scott Swanay, The Fantasy Sherpa, and Nando Di Fino of WSJ.com, more or less punted the position.

But from my perspective, it was Behrens who most stealthily handled the problem. Seven rounds into the nominations, when most of the participants had showed their hands, either by netting backstops or moving into the "scrubs" portion of their strategy, Behrens brought home Miguel Montero for exactly half the price of Santana. Montero is a 27-year-old D-Back, who, when healthy, has shown considerably power and respectable average for the position. And, of course, he falls into that "post-hype" prime, possessing both upside and experience. Near the auction's conclusion, Behrens nominated and won Carlos Ruiz ($3). Nobody gets goosebumps watching Carlos Ruiz, but Chooch has all the advantage of ballpark, lineup protection, and playing time certainty that one looks for in a #2 catcher, and, his excellent bat control (193/188 K/BB for his career) give him a high likelihood of providing a respectable average (for the position). In 2010, he did even more than that, hitting .302. From Montero and Ruiz, Behrens won't get Mauer and V-Mart level production, certainly, but he will get considerably more than 30% of their output, which is the price he paid for his tandem.

Next up...Tout Wars reveals that "Stubs & Scrubs" is still alive and well, and with good reason.

Fantastic Thoughts On Tout Wars

2011-03-18T06:36:00.000-07:00

The Sporting Hippeaux is on the road. I'll be live-blogging from the Tout Wars Mixed-League Auction tomorrow afternoon at the official Tout Wars website.

Next week you can look for a couple posts about the auction, the results, and commentary from some of the participants.

The 2011 season is near.

21st Century Cys (2011 Edition)

2011-03-17T11:57:00.000-07:00

Last season about this time, in response to "out of nowhere" Cy Young award-winners like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee, I offered a method for identifying the next set of pitchers who could climb suddenly to the elite Ace status. You can read the original for more on my rationale, but the basic premise is to identify pitchers who haven't garnered Cy Young attention in previous seasons, but are in their mid-twenties, have at one time or another been considered blue-chip prospects, and are coming off respectable, but not dominant, seasons. This was the 2010 class:

Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers (25-years-old in '10, 1st-Rnd. Pick in '03)
12-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 171 K, 192 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.4), '10 All-Star

John Danks - Chicago White Sox (25, 1st-Rnd. '03)
15-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 K, 213 IP, 4.3 WAR (+1.4)

Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers (24, Baseball America #16 Prospect in '07)
14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 200 K, 185 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.9)

Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox (26, BA #4 '04)
10-12, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 181 K, 209 IP, 3.8 WAR (+0.3), No-Hitter

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (25, Entered League at 22)
19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP, 6.3 WAR (+0.6), '10 All-Star Starter, #3 NL Cy Young Voting, #23 NL MVP Voting, No-Hitter

John Lannan, Washington Nationals (25, Entered League at 22)
8-8, 4.65 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 71 K, 143 IP, 1.2 WAR (-0.3)

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (27, Entered League at 23)
14-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 147 K, 158 IP, 2.5 WAR (-1.8)

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (27, 1st-Rnd. '04)
13-12, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 233 K, 224 IP, 5.9 WAR (+2.0)

As you can see, although none won the Cy Young award (both leagues chose a player who was a perennial favorite), two pitchers, Jimenez and Weaver, were legitimate contenders, six of our eight pitchers improved upon their '09 campaigns (according to WAR), and five of the eight set career highs in WAR. In total, the "21st Century Cy" class of 2010 combined for a 5.5 win improvement. The only two backtrackers, Lannan and Nolasco, were derailed mainly by early season slumps. After a month-long demotion, Lannan actually bounced back to go 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in the second half. Nolasco had his season ended early, but not before he put together a solid sixteen start stretch in which he went 10-5 with a 4.05 ERA and 9.7 K/9.

I used the "21st Century Cy" designation as part of my BLOGZKRIEG! draft stategy, landing Jimenez, Weaver, Gallardo, Danks, Jackson, and Lannan, and they were a big part of my eventual championship. Was this merely good fortune? Well, there's only one way to find out. Using the same formula as last season, I've identified a new class of "21st Century Cys." It's signficantly larger than the 2010 class, indicating the dearth of good young pitching in the major leagues right now. Three players from last season's class - Billingsley, Danks, and Gallardo - still qualify based upon all my criteria, but I won't bother profiling them again. Here are the other candidates:

Dallas Braden - Oakland Atletics - 27

Braden is the John Lannan of this year's class. He was a low-round draft pick. His "stuff" is underwhelming (5.3 K/9). But the fact is, the A's saw fit to promote him to the majors when he was just 23. He's a tenacious workhorse. And his numbers have steadily improved every year to the point that, in 2010, he posted a solid 3.50 ERA, pitched 193 innings, and had an extremely impressive 1.16 WHIP, as well as a 2.63 K/BB rate. His exceptional control makes up somewhat for his low strikeout rate. The cynical will point to his low BABIP in 2010 (.270) and I admit that's cause for concern, but I think Braden is a rare breed, perhaps never capable of Cy Young level dominance, but destined to be, much like Mark Buehrle or Bronson Arroyo, a consistent and valuable innings-eating anchor on any staff.

Johnny Cueto - Cincinnati Reds - 25

Cueto is entering the extremely dangerous "post-hype" period of his young career. When the Reds brought him north (amidst much ado) at the beginning of 2008, he had just turned 22 and had made only 14 starts above A-ball. Somewhat predictably, he struggled during his first two seasons, especially with flights of wildness and a propensity for giving up gopher-balls. Some continue to question his "make-up." However, last season Cueto's "upside" started translating into wins for the Reds. During a particularly dominant 18-start stretch in the middle of the season, Cueto went 11-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He finished the year at a respectable 12-7 with a 3.64 ERA, so you can see that his 2010 performance was uneven. Overall, however, he posted career bests in wins, ERA, innings, WHIP, HR/9, BB/9, and K/BB. Perhaps most importantly, he seemed calmer on the mound, less concerned with overpowering hitters, and more willing to rely upon the nasty movement of his off-speed pitches. If he can maintain that attitude and build up his endurance, he could be the best pitcher on the Reds, even though he will enter the season overshadowed by more popular sleepers like Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, and Aroldis Chapman.

Matt Garza - Chicago Cubs - 27

I'm already on the record doubting Garza's ability to mature beyond what he is currently, a reliable innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation starter. And, there's certainly nothing wrong with that. But, my metric suggests that, if there is a year in which Garza will prove that he's the kind of superlative talent who justifies Minnesota's first-round pick in 2005 as well as his inclusion as the lynchpin in two blockbuster trades, this is probably it. If that happens, as a Cubs fan, obviously, I'll be thrilled. Sadly, however, as a Cubs fan in the waning years of the Jim Hendry era, I'm having a hard time believing. Setting aside record, here are some key stats from Garza's last two seasons:

'09: 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 2.39 K/BB, 203 IP
'10: 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9, 2.38 K/BB, 205 IP

You've got to marvel at his consistency. Certainly, a move to the NL should help him improve in several of those categories, but I'm tempted to say that this is the pitcher he is, which is far from elite.

Gio Gonzalez - Oakland Athletics - 25

On a staff filled with impressive talents, Gonzalez may end up being the most dominant of all. His second half was pretty phenomenal. From June 21st on he went 9-4 with a 2.53 ERA. He ended up leading his team in innings and strikeouts. The major knock against him is that, even though he's brought it down significantly from his first two years, his walk rate is still among the highest in baseball. That's the same thing we were saying about Ubaldo Jimenez a couple years back and if Gonzalez can make the same sort of strides (he's already begun to show signs of improvement), he's could potentially be starting an All-Star game sometime in the near future.

(ASIDE: One of the impediments to the Cy Young for Gonzalez is the fact that his rotation is replete with potential candidates. Braden is on this list. But Trevor Cahill isn't, because he's already shown his legitimacy by getting a number of votes following his breakout 2010. And Brett Anderson isn't because his season was shortened by injury in '10 and he's actually still too young to fit my stated criteria. But that doesn't mean I don't believe he's capable. In fact, if I was handicapping the Cy Young potential of Oakland's starters, it's probably go like this: 1.) Anderson, 2.) Gonzalez, 3.) Cahill, 4.) Harden, 5.) Braden.)

Tommy Hanson - Atlanta Braves - 24

Well duh, right? Unlike many of the players on this list, Hanson isn't really flying under anybody's radar. He arrived in the majors with considerable hoopla in 2009 and basically justified all of it by going 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 21 starts. He had a somewhat predictable sophomore slump at the outset of 2010, but responded with a ridiculous second half (2.40 ERA) that helped carry the Braves into the postseason. So, by calling Hanson a potential Cy Young contender, I don't think anybody would say I'm going out on a limb. Still, he fits the criteria.

Ian Kennedy - Arizona D-Backs - 26

Some of you may be sick of me touting Ian Kennedy in these pages, but if you took my fantasy advice last season you ended up with an excellent contributor in innings (194), WHIP (1.20), and strikeouts (168), who didn't hurt your ERA (3.80), threw in a handful of wins (9), and cost you next to nothing. He won't fly as far under the radar in 2011, but he'll still be fairly cheap and many will be scared off by his home ballpark, which drove up his home-run rate, and his extremely low BABIP (.256). I don't deny the relevancy of such numbers, but what I see is that his pre-injury track record suggests he's got room for improvement in terms of strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate. And, as many pitchers have shown us, the second full season removed from surgery is usually when you see the most drastic rebound.

Francisco Liriano - Minnesota Twins - 27

As with Tommy Hanson, maybe he shouldn't count. In fact, based on my own criteria, Liriano's one lonely Cy Young vote from 2010 should probably disqualify him. But, Liriano is my preseason prediction for AL Cy Young in 2011. Not Felix Hernandez. Not skinny C. C. Not David Price or Brett Anderson. I think this is the year we get a glimpse of the pre-Tommy John pitcher who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 K in 121 innings, at the age of 22, way back in 2006. I don't know why this is what I believe, it just is (well, there is also the fact that his 2010 numbers were inflated by an unusually high BABIP and a late season slump when the Twins weren't really playing for anything). Sometimes you just have a feeling.

Mike Pelfrey - New York Mets - 27

I actually didn't believe it when this name popped up. Somehow, the impressiveness of Pelfrey's 2010 season had more or less eluded me. But as I delved deeper I had a kind of hard time poking holes in his case. There's no evidence that Pelfrey was particularly lucky in 2010. Rather, in almost every way, his 2010 numbers look the same as those he posted in 2008, before he went in the tank in 2009 and many of his supporters abandoned him. I've never been a Pelfrey fan. His strikeout rate and K/BB ratio are abysmal, always have been and probably always will be. His ballpark probably unfairly suppresses his home-run rate. But he does eat up innings and he's probably still young enough to make another step forward. I, personally, just wouldn't bet on it.

Ricky Romero - Toronto Blue Jays - 26

Many people, including myself, though Romero's rookie season (2009) was a little flukish. He just hadn't been very good as a minor-leaguer, and he wasn't young enough to justify expectations of rapid improvement at the major leagues. After his 2010 season, however, I'm changing my tune. Not only did Romero evade the sophomore slump many were expecting, but he made significant improvements in ERA (from 4.30 to 3.73), innings (from 178 to 210), WHIP (from 1.52 to 1.29), HR/9 (from 0.9 to 0.6), BB/9 (from 4.0 to 3.5), and K/BB (from 1.78 to 2.12). That kind of across-the-board growth is hard to argue against.

Anibal Sanchez - Florida Marlins - 27

In his rookie year, he threw a no-hitter, but that was quit a long time ago (2006). In the three years which followed, Sanchez managed just an 8-14 record and a 4.56 ERA at the major-league level. He struggled with injuries and with wildness, and spend a significant amount of time rehabbing in the minors. Last year, he managed to get his career back on track, making as many starts in one season as he had in the previous three. He also set career highs in wins HR/9 (0.5), BB/9 (3.2), and K/BB (2.24), all indications that some of his previous problems have been solved. Sanchez has the luxury of playing in a pitchers park, is supported by a decent lineup (though a suspect defense), and will probably line up behind Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Javier Vazquez. It could be a good recipe for a breakout season at that magical age of 27.

Max Scherzer - Detroit Tigers - 26

Scherzer is very much made in the Cliff Lee/Zack Greinke mold. He arrived at a young age amongst considerable acclaim, but questions quickly mounted about his "make-up" and his durability. After some moderate early success, things got so bad early in last season that he had to be briefly shipped back to the minors, just as Lee was in 2007 and Greinke in 2006. When he came back, he looked like a different pitcher, and in his remaining 23 starts went 11-7 with a 2.46 ERA and 158 K in 154 innings. If he can duplicate such sucess over an entire season, he would obviously be a frontrunner for the Cy Young. But that is, of course, a pretty big "if."

Jason Vargas - Seattle Mariners - 28

This is probably the most surprising name on the list and, to be honest, I had to fudge a little bit to get him on here. Usually I limit it to pitchers who are 27 or younger for at least some part of the upcoming season. Vargas just recently turned 28. But I wanted to draw some attention to his 2010 campaign. He was pitching in a friendly ballpark, undoubtedly, with an excellent defense behind him. Nevertheless, his success (3.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 193 IP) kind of came out of nowhere, as he had been more or less a fringe major leaguer for most of the previous five seasons. He wore down over the course of the season, which is perhaps to be expected from a pitcher throwing 50+ more innings than he had in any other year of his professional career. Maybe that means he'll be better prepared for the workload in 2011, maybe it means he'll suffer from dead arm. Only time will tell. But one thing's for certain, he's flying well under the radar.

And, finally, a few guys that, for one reason or another, just missed my list, but are nonetheless worth paying attention to in the coming year:

Brett Anderson - Oakland Athletics - 23
Homer Bailey - Cincinnati Reds - 25
Brett Cecil - Toronto Blue Jays - 24
Phil Hughes - New York Yankees - 25
Clayton Kershaw - Los Angeles Dodgers - 23
Ricky Nolasco - Florida Marlins - 28
Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox - 28
Shaun Marcum - Milwaukee Brewers - 29
Brandon Morrow - Toronto Blue Jays - 26
Clayton Richard - San Diego Padres - 27
Kevin Slowey - Minnesota Twins - 27

Get Well Wishes To Former Fan Favorite

2011-03-16T09:03:00.000-07:00

When I was a kid during the 80s and early 90s the Cubs were, for the most part, thoroughly mediocre. This was when Sammy Sosa was still a spindly young fourth outfielder, long before Wood and Prior, before Bartman, before a nine-figure annual payroll helped make the Cubs consistent contenders, for which I'm thankful, but also before Wrigleyville, always a popular summer destination, became unaffordable for anything more than the rarest special occasion. My family, grandparents and all, would routinely pile in our gas-guzzling American-made boat of a car and drive three hours to take in a game (hell, gas was less than a dollar a gallon, right?).

Naturally, the Cubs teams of this era will always have a special place in my heart. Not just Dawson, Sandberg, and Maddux, our contributions to Cooperstown, and longtime regulars like Mark Grace, Shawon Dunston, and Joe Girardi, but also the cast of shapely misfit utilitymen, including Hector Villanueva, Doug Dascenzo, Lloyd McClendon, Vance Law, and one Luis Salazar.

Like all of the players listed above, each of whom brought one basic skill in abundance, but were severely lacking in all the rest, Salazar was absolutely beloved by the Wrigley Field faithful. One of the most raucous moments in any game was when Don Zimmer, as part of some desperate double switch, elected to replace one of his revolving door of borderline major-leaguers with another. Villanueva would pinch-hit and remain at catcher as Gary Varsho shifted to center, Salazar took his place in left, and Dascenzo trotted in from the outfield and took the mound (this happened far more often than it should have).

Salazar, a journeyman infielder, finished his career with four years on the north side. He was, perhaps too frequently, our starting third baseman, but also spent time at four other positions and was a fairly sharp defender (by my memory, at least) everywhere. He couldn't hit a lick, but he was a hustler, and, despite being in his mid-thirties by the time he landed in Chicago, had incredibly quick reflexes, perfect for the hot corner. Which only makes his recent injury, struck by a foul liner while he stood in the dugout, even sadder. After the initial shock, Salazar fell upon his head and neck, sustaining even further injuries. After three surgeries, he is apparently stable and ready to return home. Though doctors had to remove an eye, they feel fortunate that he has escaped death, paralysis, or severe brain damage. Best wishes to Salazar, his family, and Braves teammates.

BBA BLOGZKRIEG! Auction: Watch Out For Falling Prices

2011-03-13T19:30:00.000-07:00

In the wake of the "Year of the Pitcher," the conventional wisdom avers that top-flight Aces are not worth what they once were. This was exactly what played out during the first week of auctioning for BBA BLOGZKRIEG! 2011. Even last year's NL Cy Young winner, who was the most expensive pitcher of the 2010 class, fell $4 in 2011. Other high profile starters like Tim Lincecum ($28), Yovani Gallardo ($22), and Chris Carpenter ($17) also saw their prices drop considerably, despite excellent 2010 performances. King Felix ($34) was the most expensive pitcher of this year's auction. Doc Halladay was the only other pitcher to top $30.

However, the pitching market was the only thing suffering from deflation. Last season, half a dozen hitters went for upwards of $40, with both Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez clearing the $50 mark. This year, even Albert dropped modestly (to $49), and HanRam ($43) was the only player who came within $10 of the undisputed king of fantasy. Other perennial studs, like Ryan Braun ($38), Matt Kemp ($33), and Mark Teixeira ($33) came down substantially from where they were a year ago, while BLOGZKRIEG! participants remained somewhat conservative towards 2010 MVPs Joey Votto ($35) and Josh Hamilton ($31), as well as breakout MVP candidates Carlos Gonzalez ($34) and Jose Bautista ($27).

With most of the premium players rostered, there is still quite a bit of money on the table, so the next week of bidding for mid-level and high-upside talents should be pretty furious. Expect to see some popular "sleepers" become the object of bidding wars.

The most controversial strategy of the week came from Fantasy Baseball Dugout's Jonathan Bentz, who, like Phil Hellmuth, arrived late to the table, laying down no bids and offering no nominations during the first three days. However, he got to work in a hurry, landing Ryan Howard ($33) as his cornerstone and then chasing a variety of mid-level pitchers and high-upside hitters over the next 48 hours, so that by the end of the week, he had rostered as many players as all but two league-members. With $168 still in his pocket, he can be a force in the middle rounds.

Scott Swanay, the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa, and Ryan Lester of Lester's Legends were busy early, filling half their rosters. Coming off an extreme version of "studs and scrubs" in 2010, which earned him a third-place finish, Ryan went for a much more even distribution of wealth in 2011. Adrian Gonzalez ($36) is his highest-paid player, but he took five more guys at $20 or more. Running contrary to the conventional wisdom, Ryan grabbed three top-notch Aces - Justin Verlander ($26), Ubaldo Jimenez ($23), and David Price ($19) - as well as the league's two most expensive closers, Brian Wilson ($20) and Heath Bell ($17).

Scott, meanwhile, nabbed Pujols ($49) and Halladay ($32), giving him arguably the best individual producers on each side of the ball, then surrounded these bastions of consistency with semi-risky bounceback candidates like Kendry Morales ($23), Ian Kinsler ($20), Derek Jeter ($17), and Bobby Abreu ($9). It says a great deal about the popular opinion regarding Jayson Werth's move to the Nationals, that Scott landed him for only $18, $4 less than he cost in 2010, even though Werth is coming off the best season of his career.

On the other side of things, Adam Dunn, who is leaving Washington for what many believe will be friendlier confines, spiked all the way to $30, even though his stats have been utterly consistent for nearly a decade. Daniel Aubain, the Colorado Springs Fantasy Baseball Addict, won the bidding war for the newest White Sock, who he hopes will benefit from the power-friendly park and his new role as a primary DH. Aubain spent big in the early rounds, also nabbing CarGo, Troy Tulowitzki ($39), Paul Konerko ($20), and two of the league's three most expensive backstops, Joe Mauer ($24) and Buster Posey ($20), duplicating the strategy endorsed last season by Jon Gangi of Roto Rebel.

But probably the most aggressive bidding of the opening week came from the Fake Teams tandem of Ray Guilfoyle and Jeremy Miedzinski. They spent 60% of their bankroll on six players - Miguel Cabrera ($38), David Wright ($36), Carl Crawford ($36), Matt Kemp ($33), Jose Bautista ($27), and Jon Lester ($26). It's a pretty intimidating front line, but they will need to be creative in filling out their remaining 18 rosters spots in the next week, for which they have set aside $43.

Only a third of the league is filled, so there's still fireworks to look forward to. You can follow the auction and learn more about the participants here.

Most Expensive By Position:

C:
1. Joe Mauer, MIN $24 (COSFBA)
2. Brian McCann, ATL $21 (Fake Teams)
3t. Victor Martinez, DET $20 (Lester)
3t. Buster Posey, SFG $20 (COSFBA)

1B:
1. Albert Pujols, STL $49 (Sherpa)
2t. Miguel Cabrera, DET $38 (Fake Teams)
2t. Prince Fielder, MIL $38 (AFB)

2B:
1. Robinson Cano, NYY $34 (Squawkers)
2. Dan Uggla, ATL $26 (Nando)
3. Dustin Pedroia, BOS $25 (Sherpa)

3B:
1. David Wright, NYM $36 (Fake Teams)
2. Evan Longoria, TBR $35 (BleacherGM1)
3. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS $32 (RotoProfessor)

SS:
1. Hanley Ramirez, FLA $43 (BleacherGM2)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, COL $39 (COSFBA)
3. Jose Reyes, NYM $26 (FBHS)

LF:
1. Ryan Braun, MIL $37 (Hippeaux)
2. Carl Crawford, BOS $36 (Fake Teams)
3. Matt Holliday, STL $33 (BleacherGM2)

CF:
1. Matt Kemp, LAD $33 (Fake Teams)
2. Josh Hamilton, TEX $31 (AFB)
3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT $30 (BleacherGM2)

RF:
1. Carlos Gonzalez, COL $34 (COSFBA)
2. Nelson Cruz, TEX $28 (BleacherGM2)
3. Justin Upton, ARZ $26 (Hippeaux)

SP:
1. Felix Hernandez, SEA $34 (AFB)
2. Roy Halladay, PHI $32 (Sherpa)
3. Tim Lincecum, SFG $28 (RotoProf)
4t. Jon Lester, BOS $26 (Fake Teams)
4t. Justin Verlander, DET $26 (Lester)
6t. Clayton Kershaw, LAD $25 (Squawkers)
6t. C. C. Sabathia, NYY $25 (Hippeaux)
8. Cliff Lee, PHI $24 (RotoProf)
9. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL $23 (Lester)
10t. Yovani Gallardo, MIL $22 (BleacherGM2)
10t. Zack Greinke, MIL $22 (Nando)
10t. Cole Hamels, PHI $22 (BleacherGM)
10t. Josh Johnson, FLA $22 (Sherpa)

RP:
1. Brian Wilson, SFG $20 (Lester)
2. Heath Bell, SDP $17 (Lester)
3t. Carlos Marmol, CHC $16 (COSFBA)
3t. Mariano Rivera, NYY $16 (Nando)
3t. Joakim Soria, KCR $16 (RotoProf)

Biggest Risers From 2010:
Carlos Gonzalez, COL + $22 ($34)
Buster Posey, SFG + $19 ($20)
Paul Konerko, CWS + $18 ($20)
Andrew McCutchen, PIT +$17 ($30)
Jason Heyward, ATL + $17 ($24)
Colby Rasmus, STL + $16 ($18)
Robinson Cano, NYY + $15 ($34)
Dan Uggla, ATL + $15 ($26)
Martin Prado, ATL + $15 ($19)
Adam Dunn, CWS + $14 ($30)
Neftali Feliz, TEX + $14 ($16)

Biggest Fallers From 2010:
Alex Rodriguez, NYY - $17 ($26)
Chase Utley, PHI - $14 ($23)
Mark Reynolds, BAL - $13 ($8)
Bobby Abreu, LAA - $10 ($9)
Carlos Lee, HOU - $10 ($9)
Jose Reyes, NYM - $9 ($26)
Joe Mauer, MIN - $9 ($24)
Ian Kinsler, TEX - $9 ($20)
Pablo Sandoval, SFG - $9 ($19)
Derek Jeter, NYY - $9 ($17)
Nick Markakis, BAL - $9 ($11)
Jason Bay, NYM - $9 ($11)

Reading Dan Rosenheck (and vice versa): The Continuing Search For Pujols Comparables

2011-02-28T16:11:00.000-08:00

To make sense of what follows, it's probably sensible to read Dan's original column and my unnecessarily condescending response.

Upfront I'm going to admit that there were some aspects of my argument which were ill-conceived and underdeveloped. Some of this has to do with my own limitations when if comes to advanced sabermetrics, more has to do with my haste in posting. The following points I concede without hesitation. I'll let Dan take it from here:

1.) "If you don't 'timeline' - that is to say, credit today's players for a higher quality of play relative to the past - then absolutely anyone with access to a calculator would rank Gehrig as the top first baseman in MLB history."

2.) "Pujol's baseball-reference WAR is inflated...Ultimate Zone Rating, which needless to say is a far superior statistic, puts him at a much more reasonable 62 runs above average for his career, which is consistent with 'outstanding defensive first baseman' rather than 'God with a mitt.' So Let's knock off those nonexistent 45 runs/4.5 wins, and drop Pujols down to 79.3 WAR."

3.) "Cherry-picking a few players who had decent seasons at age 40 is no more convincing than if I randomly named three players who were cooked by 40."

4.) "PECOTA was designed to project on season ahead, not ten...I would gladly bet my life savings that Pujols underperforms the career WAR total implicit in that projection - it's downright crazy."

5.) "Hmm, why did Greenberg and Mize only have 44 WAR each by age 30? What possibly might have prevented them from playing in the major leagues for some of those years? Here's a hint...what does WAR spell?" (Very tasteful snark.)

5.) "My last name is Rosenheck, not Rosencheck." (Though I got it right 9 out of 10 times, as somebody with a somewhat uncommon Eastern European last name, I should be more conscientious.)

After those concessions, we are left with a few substantive disputes. I'm going to address these in order of what I'll call "intensity of dissent":

1.) Is is fair to compare? Or, as Mr. Rosenheck puts it, to "timeline"...

"First off, the size-of-the-player-pool argument is pretty overblown. The US population was about 130 million in the 1930s, versus 300 million today, an increase of 130%, while the number of major league teams has risen from 16 to 30, an increase of 87.5%. After counting segregation and Latin America, there were probably 6.5 million people per team in the 1930s, and 11 million today. That's a significant difference, but I don't think it's so vast as to support a claim that older comparables are completely irrelevant.

"Second, as for better training and nutrition and equipment, etc., of course that's true, but if you put Hank Greenberg in a time machine to 2011, he would presumably benefit from the same advantages as well.

"Third, I wasn't willfully ignoring more recent or non-white players in my analysis - there just weren't any first baseman in Pujols's league from about 1950 to 1990 (and I have no idea why not). If you want to expand your consideration set to all position players from more recent time, then leaving aside Bonds (who I discount due to chemical enhancement), their track record is no better - none of Schmidt, Rickey, Morgan, Boggs, Brett, Carew, Griffey, etc. did much at age 39+.

"Finally, the whole thing is irrelevant if you ask me, because even if you concede that the quality of play is higher than it's ever been and therefore Pujols is the greatest player ever because he's the greatest active player, the same is true of his opponents. If he is likely to age better than his predecessors because he is a modern player, then so will all the pitchers he has to face, and the hitters he will compete against for batting an HR titles, etc. In figuring how much a team can afford to pay a player, all that matters is his value relative to his cohort - in which case players from the 1930s or even the 1890s are every bit as useful as those from more recent times in projecting his future. Indeed, the single best-case scenario for the second half of Pujols's career is probably Cap Anson, is it not?"

Obviously the meat of our disagreement lies in this idea of "timelining." I've got strong feelings about this, as I've expressed previously in these pages, but I haven't really gotten into it for years, so this seems as good a time as any to attempt to lay out the argument in detail.

I'm pretty certain that upon further reflection, Dan would agree that, even if his figures are dead-on accurate (which is a near impossibility), an increase of 69.2% in terms of potential players per franchise represents a radical alteration in the level of play. (5-10% shifts in potential employment pools are frequently more than enough to effect massive upgrades in the proficiency of labor markets.) Baseball considers itself a pure meritocracy. Whether it is or not is certainly up for debate, but the politics and economics of the game are definitely build upon this assumption. Meritocracies are designed upon the express idea that increasing the size of the employment pool is the most effective way of making the system more productive and/or efficient. For this very reason, since the days of integration, franchises have been highly motivated to increase their allocation of resources to scouting in Latin America, Japan, Korea, Europe, and, most recently, China and India.

I won't argue that baseball is fully globalized, but the search for talent definitely extends beyond the Americas. Which is just one reason I think Dan's "people per franchise" figures are conservative. In fact, I think statistics are inherently misleading in this situation. Those statistics have to be based, after all, on census data. In America, especially prior to the revolutionizing of sampling protocols in the 1940s, census data was a long way from accurate. And, as historians like Margo Anderson have shown, the census frequently inflated white populations and deflated minority populations, by as much as 30% in some regions, for obvious reasons (let's just start with the fact that census data effected political districting). Dan, as a former bureau chief covering Mexico, Central America, and the Carribean for The Economist, will know better than I, but I suspect that population statistics for many of the baseball-rich countries of that region are still less than stellar. [Dan adds, "I've never heard any suspicion or doubt about Latin American population statistics (as opposed to economic statistics, which are indeed sometimes poorly compiled or willfully doctored).]

Moreover, and specific to the baseball argument, we must remember a few significant cultural differences between the pre-WWII game and that of today, which no doubt influenced franchises' ability to fully exploit what player pool was at their disposal. For starters, scouting was in its infancy. Dodgers GM, Larry MacPhail, and manager, Leo Durocher, were frequently responsible for fleshing out new talent, in addition to, obviously, their management of the major-league club. The absence of commercial airlines and the infancy of highway travel meant that even parts of continental U.S. were inaccessible to baseball scouts in any meaningful way. Obviously, great players did frequently find there way to the majors by way of barnstorming and semi-pro ball, but one could hardly argue that the system for finding and developing talent was anywhere near as efficient as it was today.

Not only that, but the dramatically different labor structure under the "reserve clause" meant that professional baseball was not "a gentleman's game." To be a baseball player meant almost certainly being without an income, without a profession, and without any meaningful job training by the age of 35. For this reason, as Ken Burns so often points out, the teams were comprised mainly of farmboys and street urchins, men with little education and few other prospects. One of Dan's examples, Hank Greenberg, was, of course, famous for being among the few college-educated men in the major leagues and, as Dan pointed out, for leaving the game at something of an early age, in part because he wanted to get into the business side of things. Again, a competitive meritocracy which does not pay a competitive wage in relation to other fields is going to be extremely inefficient at acquiring the greatest talents.

Moving on, I want to reiterate something Dan says - there just weren't any first baseman in Pujols's league from about 1950 to 1990 (when we get Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell, more on them later). Dan and I actually agree about more than we disagree (more on that later), in part because we're both fully prepared to acknowledge that there are few precedents for Pujols. From Dan's perspective, that means you have to go all the way back to the Depression. From my perspective, that means you have to stop looking and start considering that we may be dealing with a true outlier, at least as far as first base is concerned. I will point out that I am not alone in seeing the Cardinals current offer as underwhelming reasonable projections. See Rob Neyer and Dave Cameron.

I know I've been using the word efficiency a lot in this rebuttal, but it is exactly why I don't agree when Dan says "value relative to cohort" is inherently relevant, regardless of era. Inefficient systems are bound to yield a different pattern of results from efficient systems. The contemporary game is, I believe without doubt, far more efficient at identifying, developing, and retaining the highest level of talent.

Hopefully, the meritocracy is still moving towards more efficiency (by way of scouting new populations, increasing longevity, etc.), however, I doubt we will ever see the rate of efficiency increase as drastically as it did in the first boom decades of professional baseball. Think about how many paradigm shifts altered the game during the careers Gehrig, Foxx, Greenberg, Williams, et al. You've got the ascendency of the power-hitter, you've got the popularization of baseball via mass media, you've got the interruption of the war, and, last but not least, integration. All the while, the model for running a franchise is improving, technology is improving, etc., etc. Although it would be difficult for me to display this in meaningful statistical terms, I think you can see why this era was operating under wildly different constraints from those with which we're now familiar. This alone could explain why players of the '30s and '40s had shorter careers. If the game keeps getting better by leaps and bounds, most veteran players are likely to have a hard time keeping up. Unless we discover a large baseball-playing community in the remote regions of China or Argentina, I sincerely doubt Pujols is going to face a radical change in the level of competition over the next ten seasons.

If one were not in favor of "timelining," Cap Anson wouldn't be a horrible analogue for Pujols's upside. From 31 to 40, Anson accumulated 60-65 WAR, which would make him worth about $220 Million, which is more than the Cardinals have offered, but not quit "A-Rod money." I'm going to assert instead that, since I don't "discount," Barry Bonds is closer to my ideal of Pujols's upside. Certainly, I don't expect him to peak in this later thirties. But Bonds, even pre-allegation Bonds, was roughly the same player from 31 to 35 (8.3 WAR/YR), as he was from 26-30 (8.5 WAR/YR). [Bonds in his 20s lost some games to the strike, but Bonds in his 30s lost roughly the same number of games to injuries.] I think Pujols could easily have 3-5 more years where he is as good, if not even a little better, than he has been so far, followed by a gradual decline into his early 40s.

2.) Is there a more recent precedent?

"Lining up Thomas's raw offensive stats with Pujols's is silly, since the first half of Thomas's peak was in a significantly lower run environment. Thomas was a slightly better hitter, as OPS+ will tell you. Furthermore, I don't know what you're talking about in terms of durability--Thomas averaged 154 games a season during his peak. But of course there's a significant gap in defensive and baserunning value, making Pujols's best seasons around 0.8 wins per year better than Thomas's. And obviously Thomas's body type suggested the early decline he eventually suffered.

"WAR through age 30 is a pretty poor metric to assess Bagwell, since he debuted at 23 and didn't develop his power stroke until 26. Bagwell averaged 8 WAR a year from ages 26-30 (remember to adjust for the strike), which is a perfect match for Pujols's production in those years. Bagwell had his last star-caliber year at 34, and was out of baseball by 37. In my article I say Pujols is probably a good risk up through age 37."

I'll admit, I'm jumping to conclusions about Pujols durability in comparison to Thomas in large part because of "body type" and quickness. Thomas was incredibly durable early in his career and quite to opposite from 2001 on. The "triceps tear" which ended his '01 season may have had something to do with that. That said, Thomas was still far more than a "fringe" player even at the age of 39, at least when he was on the field.

The reason I was attentive to "WAR through age 30" stats is that I do think Pujols early ascension and success at the major-league level is relevant to his contract negotiations. Maybe if Bagwell had been promoted earlier he could've had a comparable career to Pujols, but he wasn't, and the evidence suggests the Astros were right in delaying his arrival. After all, his first three seasons (averaging 4.3 offensive WAR) were excellent, but not Pujols-esque (7.4 oWAR), even though he was several years older.

While I do think that Thomas and Bagwell played under similar enough circumstances to make the comparison justifiable, I don't think either lives up to that comparison. Pujols was better earlier that either of them, has sustained that pace for longer than either of them, and has a wider diversity of talents than either of them. Now, could Pujols's elbow be his Achilles heel, like Bagwell's back or Thomas's foot. Sure, it could. But if the Cardinals bring that to the negotiating table, they've hardly got a leg to stand on, because the elbow is reportedly fixed and even when it was bothering Pujols it barely effected his production. The possibility of catastrophic injury exists with all players and cannot be accurately accounted for.

3.) Why do terms matter?

Dan says, "Why does it matter how they structure the contract? The only thing we care about is net present value." But, actually, as I'm reading this from the perspective of labor negotiations, there are other things I care about. Several writers, as well as Tony LaRussa, have speculated that the major roadblock in the negotiations is that Pujols, his agent, and the MLBPA are looking to set a new bar. It's a completely rational strategy when you're dealing with a player who is arguably amongst the best ever and is pretty much universally regarded as the best right now. Moreover, unlike Alex Rodriguez, Bonds, or many of the other groundbreaking players of the free agency era, Pujols comes free of PR problems. He's hard-working and charitable, has a highlight reel smile when he's signing autographs and a demon scowl when he's sizing up his opponents. Prior to these negotiations there's been pretty much zero indication that Pujols does anything wrong...ever. If a player like Pujols can't get a groundbreaking deal, the union is in trouble, and the agent should look for a new job.

(Sidebar: Why is it that we keep hearing about how Pujols is disloyally handcuffing his franchise, but we never hear about how by not paying Pujols what he's worth, the Cardinals are stealing from the Pujols Family Foundation, the down syndrome charity to which Albert is so avidly committed. How about this headline: Billionaire Owners Withholding Millions From Retarded Kids. Just because Pujols doesn't need $300 Million for himself, doesn't mean he should give it to Bill DeWitt.)

The reason creatively structuring the contract matters is that it could provide an avenue for both sides to save face. For instance, the Cardinals could offer Pujols $200 Million over seven years. That way, the contract would have the highest average annual value in history, but the Cardinals wouldn't be on the hook much past the point when, as Dan suggests, the risk might outweigh the reward. There is also the option of building in incentives, vesting options, opt-outs, etc. on the backend, thus protecting the Cardinals from the catastrophe scenario, while giving Pujols the assurance that he will continue to get paid according to his market value in the waning years of his career.

4.) What's the riskiest risk?

"Yup, marquee/brand value is indeed the great unknown. I'm skeptical anyone can contribute $80 million above and beyond their on-field playing value--that's a significant chunk of the purchase price of an entire team. What did I write to suggest I was 'tickled' by a 'discovery' that three solid players were worth the same as Pujols? I just used them to illustrate the comparison to a combination of players with the same on-field value but no marquee value. And I don't see why there's significant extra value in concentrating your WAR in fewer roster spots for a mid-market team like the Cardinals. Sure, it frees up more room to buy more valuable players, but you'd also have to pay those players more money. (I do think it matters for teams like the Yankees with no real payroll ceiling, who just want the best team money can buy). Moreover, I can't understand your risk analysis for the life of me. Surely you have less risk (and less potential reward) with three two-WAR players than you do with one six-WAR player! Just from an injury standpoint, assuming the players have an equal risk of going down, if one of the two-WAR players get hurt, you still have four left, whereas if the six-WAR guy goes down, you're out the whole package. The converse of this is that it's much less likely that you'll have three players all outperform their projections and give you a combined MVP-type year than it is that you'll have one star put together some magical season. Finally, of course I wouldn't recommend signing any of Harang, Matsui, or Johnson to an 8-year deal. But unless you expect the free agent market to be more overpriced in the future than it is in the present--and I don't see why that would be the case--then there's no compelling reason why signing a series of short-term free agent deals is a worse idea than signing one big one is."

First off, in snide terms, I was merely observing that Aaron Harang, Kelly Johnson, and Hideki Matsui seemed particularly likely to appear to NYT readers as "fungible" players and therefore make Pujols demands seem more ludicrous.

Now, assuming all players have the same risk of injury, would you rather have three relatively inexpensive two-WAR players or one ridiculously-expensive six-WAR player? There are logical arguments on both sides, which, as Dan suggests, have a lot to do with the franchise's market, budget, player development system, and the make-up of the rest of their roster. A couple weeks ago Jason Rosenberg made a pretty compelling argument, based upon the A-Rod/Rangers debacle, that no team should use more than 25% of their payroll on a single player. The Cardinals have yet to top the $100 Million mark as a franchise, so giving Pujols $25+ Million a year would be breaking Jason's rule.

The reason I prefer the "Pujols risk" to the "Johnson/Harang/Matsui risk" is that my team gets not only his WAR, which we're presuming is roughly equal to that of the other three players combined, but WAR from additional positions (preferably occupied by cost-efficient homegrown or at least cheaply-acquired talent). Assuming the health of all parties, in the Johnson/Harang/Matsui equation we are topping out at 2-3 wins per roster spot, while in the Pujols equation that's the bottom line. Yes, Johnson/Harang/Matsui will come cheaper and are almost certain not to decline to 0 WAR over the short term, but they are more likely to fall short of 6 WAR.

Obviously, as Johnson/Harang/Matsui would cost substantially less than Pujols, you could spread the money around even further and, in many situation and many offseasons, that may be the most sensible way to build a team. However, it is misleading to treat Johnson, Harang, and Matsui as fungible commodities. The Rockies recently brought the term "cost certainty" into the common parlance of baseball media by wrapping up Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki in long-term contracts. The "Johnson/Harang/Matsui risk" is part of the reason why. There is little certainty that you can consistently identify and sign even two-WAR players on the free agent market. In Pujols, presumably, the Cardinals have a player in whom they are confident, who has done nothing but flourish in St. Louis, and about whom they know pretty much as much as any franchise can know about a player. When you're constantly buying free agents, not only are you subjected to the whims of the market, you are also constantly being "sold" on players. Nobody can sell the Cardinal the "Pujols factor." They know not only how he contributes to production on-the-field, but his box office draw, his public relations value, his clubhouse chemistry assets, his relation to other players, coaches, etc.

Generally, it's safer to bet on the devil you know, as it were.

5.) Whose side are we on?

"When did I ever say how much money I though Pujols 'should' be paid? I don't have any opinion on what the morally correct outcome is. My column was about how much money the Cardinals could offer him and still make a profit on the contract."

The problem here is that Dan's column fell under two different headlines on the NYT website, which were "Albert Pujols May Be Asking Too Much of Cardinals" and "Asking For a Lot, Perhaps Too Much, from St. Louis." Dan did not choose these headlines, but they inflect our reading of his research with a "morally correct" overtone. Such headlines fit right into the evolving narrative (at its most ridiculous extremes in the commentary of Seth Everett and the similarly simple-minded), which accuses Pujols of "disloyalty" and "greed."

I think, on these counts, actually, Dan and I are in full agreement. 1.) Pujols has every right to negotiate according to recent market precedents like Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard, and Mark Teixeira. In comparison to those precedents, there's no denying that the Cardinals offer is short. 2.) The Cardinals would be completely within reason if they decided that they could not afford pay any player, even the best player, $300 Million, considering the constraints of their market. 3.) If the Cardinals don't make Pujols an offer approaching at least $25 Million/yr., somebody else will.

You can assume "asking too much" is an allegation of unreasonable greed on Pujols part. Or, you can read it as an acknowledgement of the Cardinals limitations. For some reason I assume the general public read it in the former fashion. But I could be wrong.

Finally, thanks so much to Dan Rosenheck for reading and responding in such great detail and with such a generous and perhaps undeserved level of collegiality.

Cubs Optimism Is In The Air; Infecting Even Jaded Sabremetricians

2011-02-28T15:51:00.000-08:00

On his podcast earlier this week, Jonah Keri asked Rob Neyer what was going to be the biggest surprise of the 2011 season and his answer was...the Chicago Cubs.

I'll allow a moment for the shock to subside.

His rationale is interesting. Simply put, he expects the Cubs to get better production out of at least five or six positions. And, he believes the addition of Matt Garza and the return of Carlos Zambrano will make up for the loss of Ted Lilly and the general uncertainty at the backend of the rotation.

Not bad points. Here's what Rob is talking about in more detailed terms:

Cubs C '10: .257 AVG, 70 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 774 OPS (#4 in NL)
Cubs 1B '10: .254 AVG, 91 R, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 722 OPS (#14)
Cubs 2B '10: .257 AVG, 69 R, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 644 OPS (#13)
Cubs 3B '10: .262 AVG, 85 R, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 771 OPS (#7)
Cubs SS '10: .303 AVG, 78 R, 3 HR, 56 RBI, 744 OPS (#5)
Cubs LF '10: .261 AVG, 83 R, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 795 OPS (#6)
Cubs CF '10: .286 AVG, 93 R, 14 HR, 75 RBI, 770 OPS (#7)
Cubs RF '10: .250 AVG, 82 R, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 789 OPS (#8)

That's truly abysmal production. Conventional stats aren't the greatest indicators, obviously, but it's never good when no position produces either 100 R or 100 RBI and only two positions manage an average above .265. No position provided 30 HR. No position managed an OPS above 800 (32 NL players had 800+ OPS in 2010, two per team).

I'm willing to take for granted that a full year of Aramis Ramirez, who was plenty productive when he got back from the DL, will give the Cubs at least one sizable upgrade.

I'm also excited to see more of Geovany Soto. Soto was great in 2010 (890 OPS), but Lou Pinella severely limited his ABs against right-handed pitchers and his splits show why (796 OPS v. RHP, 1072 OPS v. LHP). Still, he's a hell of a lot better than Koyie Hill, no matter which way the ball is coming from, though his '10 rates might be slightly misleading.

Beyond that, there is a lot of uncertainty. One hopes that Starlin Castro will be even better in his first full season, but sophomore slumps are hardly unusual, especially when we're talking about a 21-year-old who played a grand total of 57 games at AA and zero at AAA. The Cubs actually got decent production from shortstop last year, because Castro was very good in the second half and Ryan Theriot was pretty good early in the season, prior to Castro's promotion. I certainly wouldn't guarantee an improvement in 2011.

One expects that free-agent acquisition Carlos Pena will give the Cubs some pop at first base, something they were sorely lacking in 2010. But, Pena actually posted a 732 OPS last year, worse than Derrek Lee, to go along with his sub-Mendoza batting average. He was reportedly nursing injuries, so I'm willing to embrace an optimistic position towards his 2011, but he's hardly a sure thing.

Alfonso Soriano is actually coming off one of his best seasons since he joined the Cubs. He got more plate appearances than he has since 2007 and seemed more comfortable after finally being moved down in the order. However, now 35, Soriano's 30/30 potential has all but vanished and the Cubs should probably be thankful if he merely repeats his 2010 line for a couple more years.

For Marlon Byrd, it was a tale of two seasons. He made the All-Star team based on a first half in which he hit .317 with an 845 OPS. After the break he hit .261 with a 682 OPS. Is Marlon Byrd really better than a league-average hitter, which is more or less what his overall production made him in 2010? I don't believe so.

In 2010, four replacement-level players shared second base: Theriot, Blake DeWitt, Mike Fontenot, and Jeff Baker. This spring the Cubs are working out DeWitt, Baker, Darwin Barney (708 career OPS in the minor leagues), and a smattering of non-roster invitees, the most recognizable of which is Augie Ojeda, a 36-year-old journeyman who most recently posted a 486 OPS (not a misprint) with the D-Backs. Seeing potential for improvement here is like betting on a coin flip.

The biggest wild card for the Cubs in 2011 has to be in right field, where Chicago is presumably prepared to go with Tyler Colvin full-time, after the rookie earned his way into the starting lineup over the course of last season. The scouting reports are extremely mixed on Colvin. Like Castro, he spent very little time in the high minors. He showed great power right off the bat in the majors (20 HR, .500 SLG), but his plate discipline is very suspect (100 K in 358 AB, .316 OBP). If Colvin matures quickly he could be Adam LaRoche or even Adam Lind, but he could also be a forgotten flash-in-the-pan by this time next year.

Of the rotation, I'm cautiously optimistic. I'd say Garza has a really strong chance of becoming Ted Lilly upon his transition to the NL. In three-and-a-half seasons with the Cubs, Lilly went 47-34 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He averaged 31 starts and 196 innings per season, providing stability, but not brilliance. As I've said before, Garza is young enough that he may still prove himself to be more than that, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Assuming Garza makes up for the loss of Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells hold steady, and everybody stays healthy, a full year from the revitalized Zambrano, who went 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA after returning to the rotation down the stretch, should make the rotation substantially better in 2011. And it wasn't that bad last year.

Our problem was the bullpen. Even with a truly outstanding seasons from Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall, the Cubs bullpen ERA was the second worst in the National League. Jim Hendry addressed this problem this offseason by rehiring Kerry Wood. Undoubtedly, he's expecting greater contributions from youngsters like Esmalin Caridad, Andrew Cashner, and Casey Coleman as well. Again, the best I can muster is "perhaps."

Keep in mind, Neyer did not say he expected the Cubs to win the NL Central, merely that they were capable of making a 10-12 win improvement on last season's 75-87 record. That's not beyond the realm of possibility. The Cubs had some seriously bad luck in 2010. Ramirez missed time. Zambrano melted down. Lee fell off the table. Byrd disappeared in the second half. Had they been spared a few of these misfires, one could easily see them as a .500 team.

The Cardinals, a team who's lack of depth cost them dearly in 2010, failed to competently address their glaring holes this offseason, then lost their Ace in the opening week of Spring Training. So, the perennial NL Central juggernaut is plenty vulnerable. However, both the Brewer and the Reds are balanced, stacked franchises. I just can't see the Cubs making a run at either of them. Would a .500 record really be surprising? For a team boasting a $135 Million payroll? For some reason, I can't even summon my usual springtime sanguineness.

A Call To Fantastic Followers

2011-02-25T16:53:00.000-08:00

I've got at least one and maybe more openings in the SPH 640, a highly-competitive, ridiculously deep (16 teams, 40-man rosters) keeper league now entering its fourth season. If you're interested in playing against Hippeaux and numerous other obsessive baseball fans, drop me a line at thesportinghippeaux@gmail.com. You would be taking over a team, so you would have to deal with a previous owners management/mismanagement, but since the league only allows 6 keepers from year to year, there is plenty of opportunity to buoy your franchise with a good draft.

The Search For Pujols Comparables or "What's Ted Williams got to do with it?"

2011-02-21T10:25:00.000-08:00

I'm going to take on this column by Dan Rosenheck in the style of Fire Joe Morgan. Don't expect the same level of hilarity, but it seems the best way to approach the multi-layered ignorance imbedded within.

Ever since Albert Pujols’s self-imposed deadline for a new contract with the St. Louis Cardinals passed Wednesday without a deal, speculation has been rampant about whether he will re-sign, how much he could command as a free agent and whether he will be worth it. He is reportedly seeking $300 million over 10 years, and his employers are believed to have offered less than $200 million — a gap that is bigger than the entire value of all but a handful of contracts in history.

Honestly, I don't know where Rosenheck's getting his information. Maybe he has an inside source or maybe he's just suffering from the general lack of credible information on the size of the Cardinals offer. I've seen everything from 7 yrs./$200 Million to 10 yrs./$240 Million, but I have yet to see anybody (except Rosenheck) reporting under $200 Million. If he's correct, I think it actually makes his argument weaker.

That paragraph-ending addendum is one of those rhetorical perversions which mainstream journalists are supposed to be immune to. How many contracts can you fit in your hand? Apparently, Rosenheck can fit about 26, because that's how many $100+ Million contracts have been handed out in "baseball history." By the way, that's also the number of $100+ Million contracts that have been handed out in the last 12 years. That doesn't sound quite so damning, does it? Inflation's a bitch, I know, but Pujols is only asking for 9.1% more money than A-Rod got two years ago. He's the best player in the game right now and he's younger than A-Rod was in '08, so everybody knew this was coming. You can table your pretended horror.

Pujols, 31, is baseball’s undisputed top player. He is far and away the best hitter in the game, he is an elite defensive first baseman; and he runs the bases well. Moreover, he is extremely durable, averaging 156 games a season. Over his first decade in the majors, St. Louis won around 80 more games than they would have with a typical scrap-heap first baseman (say, Mike Jacobs), an average of eight wins a year. Eight wins is a typical mark for the winner of a Most Valuable Player award.

So promising! He doesn't exactly say it, perhaps for fear that Murray Chass might stalk him into the men's room at the NYT's next holiday party, but Rosenheck is using WAR to estimate Pujols value. Not batting average. Not World Series rings. An actual legitimate baseball metric. Wow.

The first question for the Cardinals is how Pujols will age. The standard approach is to examine the careers of similar players. Few players, however, have been as great as Pujols, and even fewer were first basemen.

The only one who could outhit Pujols was Lou Gehrig, the greatest first baseman ever. Jimmie Foxx is a fairly close match for Pujols, particularly because they both started as third basemen, and Johnny Mize and Hank Greenberg were not far behind. But none of them had Pujols’s defensive value.

Oh for fuck's sake. We really shouldn't need to do this anymore. I'll ignore the "greatest first baseman ever" bullshit, because it's a New York paper, but one of these things is not like the others. Anybody?

When looking for players who resemble a Dominican-born slugger who's played his entire career in the 21st-century, the natural comparisons are always Caucasian guys whose careers ended during the Truman administration.

None of them have Pujols defensive value!?! That's the difference between Jimmie Foxx and Albert Pujols?!? Can we start with the fact that if Albert had been Jimmie's contemporary, he would have been ineligible to play in the major leagues. Pujols plays in an era when not only are all Americans eligible for the amateur draft, but baseball is pulling from an increasingly global player pool. Comparing 1940s stats to 2000s stats is like comparing Liechtensteinian politics to American politics. Not only is there a difference in kind, there's a difference in scale.

That said, Pujols still eats all these whitebread sluggers for lunch:

WAR Through Age 30 (from Baseball-Reference):

Pujols (83.8)
Foxx (78.2)
Gehrig (76.2)
Mize (44.4)
Greenberg (44.2)

Continuing...

More recently, Frank Thomas may have been an even better hitter than Pujols during his peak, but he was brittle and immobile. Jeff Bagwell, another minor league third baseman, had a similar all-around game to Pujols’s but was a clear cut below him offensively.

Okay, well, at least these guys played the same damn game. Yes, Thomas was downright lethal during his peak, a stretch from '91 to '97, between the age of 23 and 29. I wonder how Pujols compared in that same age range:

Thomas: .330 AVG, 1056 OPS, 250 HR, 823 RBI, 1016 G, 46.0 WAR
Pujols: .337 AVG, 1075 OPS, 295 HR, 855 RBI, 1081 G, 63.9 WAR

As hitters they were relatively similar, although Thomas played in a somewhat friendlier home ballpark, had the luxury of some "off-days" at DH, and still missed substantially more time than Pujols. Besides having a better track record for durability, athleticism, and defense than the Big Hurt, Pujols entered the league earlier and has been forced to face some especially pitching-rich competition in his most recent seasons.

Bagwell? I'll set aside the fact that Pujols WAR is more than 30 games better than Bagwell's through age 30 and just point out that this comparison could actually work to Pujols' benefit. Several of Bagwell's best seasons came after the age of 30 and setting aside his back (a problem Pujols doesn't share), Bagwell was still producing at a pretty impressive rate by age 36.

Still, I think the point of Pujols $300 Million demand is that there is no precedent.

At first glance, that group does not bode well for Pujols’s future: not one of them had a superstar-caliber season after age 35. But three had their careers cut short by unusual circumstances. Gehrig contracted the disease that now bears his name. Foxx had sinus and vision problems after a beaning and was a heavy drinker. Greenberg simply decided he preferred a front-office job. Of the remaining three, Thomas’s physique makes him a poor match for Pujols.

Expanding the list to include corner outfielders provides some more hopeful cases. Stan Musial, whose first 10 years (adjusting for World War II) were almost identical to Pujols’s, remained a star through age 37, and even batted .330 when he was 41. Hank Aaron also dominated until 37, and hit very well at 38 and 39, as did Frank Robinson. Ted Williams was the best hitter in baseball when he retired at 41. But even Pujols is not Ted Williams.

What seems clear is that expecting star-caliber play after 37 is folly. The only position players who played well enough after 38 to justify three or more years under contract at top dollar were Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, Willie Mays, Williams and (oddly) Luke Appling. The first four all have an argument as the best player ever.

You're right, Dan. Pujols isn't Ted Williams. You see, if Ted Williams were playing today, he'd be Matt Holliday. You see what I'm saying? He'd be Pujols' sidekick. I know it stings, but there's a strong chance there isn't a single white man among the top ten hitters in the history of the game. Riddle me this, if the white hitters of the "golden age" were so damn good, how come the best white hitter of the last twenty years is Chipper Jones? Who's the greatest white hitter since Mickey Mantle? Is he one of the top five hitters of his generation?

Again, Williams best seasons came prior to integration and even the latter half of his career was hardly played against the kind of competition Pujols has seen constantly since he entered the league. Certainly, Williams was by far the best player of that generation. And he probably would still be outstanding (as is Matt Holliday). But Pujols has, thusfar, been as good as any player in the history of the game. That includes Williams, Mays, Bonds, Musial, Robinson, you name it. Why should we be judging him against anybody else? Rosenheck seems to be taking for granted that Pujols doesn't "have an argument for best player ever." Certainly, he'll need a few more years to cement himself in the discussion, but ten years is a lot of data, and all that date suggests he very much belongs in that conversation.

As Dan points out, many of the guys in that conversation were very productive into their late 30s and even early 40s. That's one reason why Pujols can rationalize his enormous contract demands. He can also point to the fact that he lives in an era of vast improved medical technology, conditioning technique, etc. Players routinely have career years in their mid-thirties.

Over all, the historical evidence suggests that over the next seven years, Pujols will play about 30 percent worse than he has until now, which would make him worth some 42 wins — still the best first baseman in the game, but not necessarily a perennial M.V.P. contender. After that, he is likely to be merely above average at 38, average at 39 and a fringe player at 40.

My, we throw around the term "evidence" with abandon these days? Where exactly did this case get made? Did I miss a few paragraphs? "Fringe player at 40," really?

How many HOF caliber players are actually reduced to "fringe" status by 40? Especially in this era. (I'll leave aside the Bonds-Clemens contingent.) Is Jim Thome a fringe player? He's coming off a year in which he posted a 1039 OPS. By age 40 Omar Vizquel was clearly in decline at the plate (but he was never a superlative hitter), but his defense still allowed him to post a 1.4 WAR, which is better than "fringe." Kenny Lofton stole 23 bases and hit .296 at age 40.

Also, as many writers have pointed out, the Cardinals don't have to pay Pujols the same money when he's 40 as they do when he's 35. They could frontload the contract. They could make it an eight-year deal. What they do have to acknowledge, however, is that in order to retain the best player in the game, they're going to have to give him an average annual salary substantially larger than what the Red Sox just gave Carl Crawford or what the Yankees gave Mark Teixeira. Obviously, Crawford's a great player, but Pujols is substantially more valuable, even though he's two years older. And, frankly, Teixeira, who's the same age as Pujols, isn't even in the same ballpark (career WAR of 36.7).

You probably don't have much use for statistical models like Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA, seeing as they use massive amounts of data, give precedence to relevant recent information, and have a really high rate of accuracy. But, just for kicks, you might take a look at the projections for Pujols. You see, although PECOTA certainly forecasts a decline, particularly in Pujols homerun-hitting ability, it expects him to post a 900+ OPS well into his 40s. Will he be baseball's Steve Nash? Only time will tell.

The second question for the Cardinals is how to translate Pujols’s on-field performance into dollars and cents. The common statistical approach is simply to use the average amount general managers pay in the free-agent market to improve their teams by one win, and multiply that by the number of wins a player is expected to contribute. But most free agents wind up being bad values because they are systematically overpaid, as a result of younger players’ being bound to their clubs.

At the current market rate, building a 95-win team with free agents alone would cost $230 million — even more than the Yankees’ payroll. Clearly, a midmarket team like the Cardinals has to be very cautious in the free-agent market, particularly since they have signed Matt Holliday to a bloated $120 million contract.

The proper way for a cost-conscious team to evaluate free agents is by their effect on the club’s bottom line. In 2011, the Cardinals’ revenue will probably increase by $3.5 million for each additional game they win. Assuming they remain a contender, that figure should increase in line with the sport’s overall growth over the next decade, which lately has been a shade under 8 percent a year. That suggests Pujols’s playing value from 2011 to 2017 would be around $180 million.

Of course, this isn't how teams are built. Not by a long shot. What sportswriters so often overlook is that free agents, arbitration-eligible players, and team-controlled players are three very different, but related commodities. You pay more for free agent production for several reasons, not the least of which is that it's very hard to build a contender exclusively with homegrown talent. A 7-8 WAR/YR. player on the open market should not be subjected to the same value models as players who remain under team control.

Franchises are, in the vast majority of cases, paying the latter player substantially less than their market value. Considering how few players, in the grand scheme of things, have careers much beyond their first six years, the whole nature of baseball's labor situation demands that premier players, like Pujols, get the opportunity to balance the scales in free agency. I'll admit, it's not a perfect system, but that's what we've got.

Rosenheck's mistake here is a common one. He wants the Cardinals to pay Albert "what he's worth," according to WAR, for the next ten years. I think $180 Million is probably a very conservative projection, but $300 is probably fairly liberal. What Rosenheck doesn't acknowledge, not even fleetingly, is that, according to those same methods by which he's guessing Pujols future worth, Pujols has already been worth upwards of $150 Million more than he's actually been paid. It was his first contract. He gave the team a discount in exchange for stability. Fine. But, why should a free agent settle for a low-end estimate of his future worth, when he's been underpaid at every step of his career up to that point. We don't like to admit it, but free agency is about what you've done not what you're going to do, because that's the standard against which your market is created. That's how baseball's CBA is built. If you don't like it, than you're going to have to start paying young players more and giving out guaranteed contracts earlier. If the Cardinals want to keep Pujols, they're going to need to reimburse him for some of the time he's already given them. Why is the responsibility for loyalty only on the players side?

If he is set on a 10-year deal, the three twilight seasons would be worth only $40 million more. That still suggests he is asking for $80 million more than he is worth.

The final factor is the hardest to evaluate: Pujols’s off-the-field “marquee value” to the franchise. Do the Cardinals sell more tickets or jerseys — or, more important, would a potential buyer pay a higher price for them — if they get seven wins a year from Pujols rather than from, say, a combination of Kelly Johnson, Aaron Harang and Hideki Matsui? It’s reasonable to give Pujols some credit for his iconic status. But $80 million is a lot of warm fuzzies.

Because the public has no access to the baseball's books (thanks Oliver Wendall Holmes), nobody actually knows how much the Pujols brand has been worth to the Cardinals, so much of this latter paragraph is just pure masturbation on Rosenheck's part. $80 Million may not actually be very many warm fuzzies. Since we don't have the opportunity to analyze the profits of MLB franchises, we actually can't make very accurate judgments about how much history-making players are worth.

Rosenheck is so very tickled by his discovery that three players as mediocre (in his eyes) as Johnson, Harang, and Matsui were worth about 7 WAR in 2010. But, obviously, as cute as this supposition is, seven wins from Pujols is not the same a seven wins from this trio, if for no other reason than it takes three roster spots instead of one. That's two roster spots from which you can't be earning additional production. Moreover, and most obviously, Johnson, Harang, and Matsui represent three different "risks," each of which potentially keep you from getting to your goal. Assuming all players are created equal in terms of the likelihood of injury, you are essentially tripling your risk of falling short of your WAR goal every season. Of course, all players aren't created equal, and Pujols has proven himself as close to risk-free as any player in the major leagues.

In addition, since I assume Rosenheck would not endorse signing Matsui, Johnson, and Harang to 8 year contracts, if they followed his advice, the Cardinals would have to go out and replace each of them at least once or twice over that span. That means submitting yourself on an annual basis to the whims of free agency, probably overpaying (since, as we've shown, free agents are inherently less cost-effective) for half a dozen players instead of just one, and being completely without consistency in the roster (fans like it) or cost certainty (owners like it).

As I said last week, if the Cardinals decide that spending 25-30% of their payroll on Pujols is untenable, I completely respect that. It's a very rational argument. However, arguing that Pujols is overstating his own value is entirely different. As I pointed out above, he's essentially saying he's 10% better than A-Rod. And, from that perspective, he's probably being generous.

Arguing that Pujols is asking for too much based on the precedence of Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig, that's just asinine.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Bill Hall is Jose Oquendo with power." (Fantasy Baseball Second Base Preview)

2011-02-19T18:51:00.000-08:00

Although the depth at second has improved dramatically in the last few years, it is still a relatively sparse fantasy position. Shortstop is shallower. Catcher is by a slim margin. And third base is close to neck-and-neck. The sparsity of the infield "skills" positions leads fantasy owners to overpay for the guys at or near the top of the pile. We'll routinely treat Hanley Ramirez as fantasy royalty, even though he has only one season of 30+ HR, only one season of 100+ RBI, and only two seasons batting above .301.

I, personally, rarely pay premiums at scarce positions. So, in the middle infield I generally look for "sleepers" and value plays...as well as flexibility.

Especially in deeper leagues, when you take a moderate risk by making Aaron Hill or Neil Walker your primary second-baseman, with similar players at SS and/or 3B, you want to back them up with some low-risk options off the bench, preferably guys who play several positions. Here's a quick look at some interesting "eligibility" guys for this coming season

Bill Hall - Houston Astros - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Depending on what your league regulations are, Hall may have as many as four position eligibilities. He actually played seven different positions for the Red Sox last season, including one appearance at pitcher. More importantly, he currently looks like an everyday player for his new team. While he's not going to do your team average any good, he should be good for 20+ homers and double-digit steals over a full season and shouldn't cost much more than $1 bid or a late round flyer.

Sean Rodriguez - Tampa Bay Rays - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Again, you league's eligibility requirements will determine what he gets (5+ games at all the positions listed above), but he'll definitely qualify at 2B and OF. Rodriguez is only 25-years-old, slated for pretty much full-time at-bats in a loaded lineup, and had a AAA slugging percentage of .620 in 750 plate appearances. He's got premium power, decent speed (13 SB in '10), and shouldn't decimate your average (.298 at AAA). Unlike Hall, he won't come free, especially in deep leagues, but might be worth chasing nonetheless.

Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - 1B, 2B, SS

It wasn't that long ago that the Red Sox considered Lowrie their top prospect, ahead of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and even Jon Lester. In 2010, he finally showed a flicker of that promise at the major-league level. From July 26 to the end of the season he got relatively regular playing time and hit .294 with a 936 OPS. He closed off the year by hitting a pair of homers against the Yankees, pushing them into second place (and the Wild Card) behind the Rays. It was a small victory, but one that surely didn't go unnoticed in Red Sox nation. There's no clear place for Lowrie in Boston, but Marco Scutaro may be on a short leash and, of course, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia don't haven't the greatest track records for staying healthy (nor does Lowrie). He's worth stashing in deep leagues and worth following in shallower ones. I expect him to be a starter by August.

Now, on to the rankings...

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Chase Utley, PHI
3. Rickie Weeks, MIL
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Dan Uggla, ATL
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN
7. Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It's actually a pretty crowded field at the top of the second-base rankings. Following an MVP-caliber 2010 season, which coincided with injury-plagued campaigns from Utley and Pedroia, Cano is the clear #1 option at the position, but don't fret if you miss out. Utley had a excellent stretch run at the end of last year and should be primed to bounce back in 2011, at a slightly reduced price. There's also little reason to believe Pedroia and Kinsler aren't capable of returning to form, but be aware, in terms of 5X5 fantasy production, Brandon Phillips is very nearly their equal and comes without the injury risk, having played 140+ games in each of the last five seasons.

8. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
9. Ben Zobrist, TBR
10. Aaron Hill, TOR
11. Martin Prado, ATL
12. Neil Walker, PIT

This group can be summarized by the phrase "one good year." For Johnson, Prado, and Walker it was 2010. For Zobrist and Hill, 2009. All of the players from this group have surprisingly power potential, especially for the middle-infield, but otherwise their strengths vary. Zobrist and Johnson can get you stolen bases. Prado hits for a high average. Walker is young enough that there may still be room for development. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of safety here and it will probably be at least another year before we can confidently say which of them was a fluke.

13. Brian Roberts, BAL
14. Chone Figgins, SEA

Speedsters a renowned for their expeditious declines. Roberts and Figgins, both 33-years-old, are coming off disappointing seasons which could signal that descent has begun. On the other hand, in limited opportunity following his return from the D.L., Roberts still showed good speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts), though absent his usual power (.405 SLG). Figgins managed to pile up the steals (42), even though his season was in nearly every other capacity the worst of his career. Advantage goes to Roberts primarily because he'll be hitting atop a revitalized lineup, whereas Figgins plays in the offensive wasteland of Seattle. Both are heavy in the risk department, but they should come much cheaper than they have in the past and therefore might be worth the gamble.

15. Gordon Beckham, CWS
16. Howie Kendrick, LAA
17. Mike Aviles, KCR
18. Sean Rodriguez, TBR
19. Eric Young Jr., COL
20. Danny Espinosa, WAS
21. Ryan Raburn, DET

The next class of potential breakout second-baseman is led by two highly-touted prospects who, as yet, haven't put it all together at the major-league level. Beckham got off to a horrid start in 2010, but had two strong months in July and August (.332 AVG, 941 OPS) before his season was cut short by injury. Rodriguez and Young won't get as much attention, because they don't offer a divers toolset, but Young has premium speed and Rodriguez premium power, so you could do worse in deep leagues. The diamond in the rough here is Mike Aviles, who could be this year's version of Martin Prado. In most leagues he'll be eligible at three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) and has the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 HR and 20+ steals, if he can hold down an everyday job. Wilson Betemit and Mike Moustakas are waiting in the wings, so Aviles needs to get off to a hot start.

22. Orlando Hudson, SDP
23. Freddy Sanchez, SFG
24. Omar Infante, FLA
25. Juan Uribe, LAD
26. Ty Wigginton, COL
27. Bill Hall, HOU
28. Mark Ellis, OAK
29. Carlos Guillen, DET

In most league you won't want anything to do with these guys, but in deep leagues, one has to plow the depths of the middle-infield ranks. Infante had a "breakout" season in 2010 which prompted his selection to the All-Star game, but his excellent average (.321) didn't bring much along with it (65 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB) and I have serious doubts there is any upside at age 29. Wigginton, who has legit power, could benefit from his move to Colorado, except that there is no clear place for him to play. If a Colorado infielder suffers an injury, he could jump up the list.

30. Dustin Ackley, SEA
31. Daniel Murphy, NYM
32. Luis Valbuena, CLE
33. Alexi Casilla, MIN
34. Jeff Baker, CHC

This is the deep sleeper contingent. Seattle seems prepared to hand a full-time gig to their top prospect following his dynamite Arizona Fall League performance, but his full season totals from AA and AAA were less than thrilling (775 OPS). I'm not convinced he's ready, but if you can get him on the cheap there is obviously tons of upside. The Mets Daniel Murphy experiment is probably destined for failure. It is the Mets after all. But if Murphy does prove himself able to handle the position switch, he has the offensive talent to be a top 15 fantasy second-baseman.

Fantastic Thoughts: "First base is deep, but not that deep." (Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings)

2011-02-16T16:36:00.000-08:00

I've discussed the "three threes" strategy before, most recently in my 2010 BLOGZKRIEG! Auction Diary, but heres a quick refresher.

My theory is that first-baseman, besides consistently filling up the stat sheet, are less frequently injured than players who play more strenuous positions. So, I aim to get as many 1B/DH types on my roster as possible, three at minimum: at first, corner infield, and utility. If you have an instance, as we did in 2010, where a former third-baseman or outfielder is being moved to first (i.e. Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, etc.), but still has eligibility at their old position, than that opens up the possibility of getting even more.

Here are the numbers, by position, of players who got at least 600 plate appearances in 2010:

C: 0
1B: 21
2B: 9
3B: 11
SS: 10
LF: 10
CF: 14
RF: 11
DH: 4

This was actually an even more pronounced distribution than I've seen in years past, but 1B is almost always the runaway leader. Keeping your players on the field is one of the most important and least predictable aspects of playing fantasy baseball and this is one way I seek to exert a little bit of control.

This season, however, the class of first baseman is not as deep as it has been in the recent past. There are a few reasons for this. No fewer than ten teams are currently planning to go with young first-baseman, either rookies or sophomores. Some of them are quite promising, but there is always risk involved with young players. Furthermore, we have a couple of premier hitters - Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales - who are coming back from injuries and whose production, especially in the early months of the season, could be effected. Several players who were formerly considered safe producers - Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, etc. - are coming off bad years. It's hard to feel comfortable predicting a rebound. And, on the other side, guys like Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff just posted career highs. What can we expect from them?

It's a tough crop to gauge, which is one reason why the elite first-baggers, always among the most expensive players on the board, may be even more sought-after.

1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET

Not only are they the clear leaders at the position, they are, in my mind at least, the two most valuable players in fantasy baseball. If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably hear a lot more about the historical precedence of Miggy's seven-year stretching of averaging .317 - 100 - 34 - 117 - 4. But, of course, Prince Albert's stretch runs to ten years at .331 - 119 - 41 - 123 - 8. Sick. Just sick.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
6. Ryan Howard, PHI

Many would scoff at putting Fielder ahead of the 2010 NL MVP, but remember we're not paying for last year's stats. History has suggested, that short of legends like Pujols and Bonds, it's really hard to maintain MVP-type numbers from one year to the next. I'm not saying Votto won't continue to be productive, but I expect a modest decline from a player who, to be honest, set career highs is basically everything in 2010. Fielder is the same age as Votto, but with a much longer and more impressive overall track record and, coming off a slightly down season (.261-94-32-83-1), in a contract year, and playing for a serious contender, he's got everything to prove.

7. Mark Teixeira, NYY
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
10. Kendry Morales, LAA
11. Adam Dunn, CWS

Note that, absent from this group is Kevin Youkilis. If he were here, I would probably rank him ahead of Teixeira, but as he will be spending most of the season at the hot corner, following the Adrian Gonzalez trade, that's where I'm going to rank him. Again, it has to do with wanting to focus on the guys that have the luxury of playing baseball's least taxing position. This is a class of players who are all clearly superb hitters and could very well end up out-producing several players in the tier above them, but all give us reason for pause. Morales is coming off a broken leg that cost him almost all of 2010. Morneau looked like he was heading for his second MVP award, but concussions cut he season short at the halfway point. Teixeira dealt with minor injuries and still produced at a high level, except in terms of batting average, which fell to a career low (.256, is probably just a fluke, based on his .268 BABIP). Batting average is also the concern for Dunn, who actually was above his career norms in his two years in Washington. The move to Chicago could be good for his power totals, but changing leagues might cause him to backtrack in terms of average and strikeouts. Again, it's possible any one of these guys could give you a top-five caliber performance, but there's some minor uncertainties.

12. Billy Butler, KC
13. Paul Konerko, CWS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Adam Lind, TOR

This is where the first substantial dropoff happens. All of these guys have certainly proved themselves capable of putting up big numbers, but their ability to do it consistently in the question. After mediocre showings in '08 and '09 it looked like Konerko was entering his decline. Then, just before his contract expired, he posted the best season of his career, at age 34. Though a year younger, Huff's situation is similar. 2010 was, in many respects, his best showing since 2003 (although he also had a very respectable year in 2008). Lind was an MVP candidate in '09, but fell apart last year. In 2011 he'll be 27-years-old and playing a new position. Could it spark a comeback? With all these players, the issue is not whether you want them so much as what you have to pay for them. In the early middle rounds of your draft or for around $20-$25, they're reasonable investment, but don't reach. On the other hands, if one of them slips or can be had for under $20, get after him.

16. Matt LaPorta, CLE
17. Kila Ka'aihue, KCR
18. Justin Smoak, SEA
19. Daric Barton, OAK
20. James Loney, LAD

These players are defined by what I'd call "unrealized potential." Matt LaPorta was the cornerstone in the C. C. Sabathia trade a few years back. At the time he was presumed a future All-Star, but his performance thusfar has been frankly pathetic (596 OPS in 162 games). He's still young. Ka'aihue has hit at every minor-league level, but for some reason the Royals were reluctant to promote him. Now, at age 27, he'll finally get a shot to prove himself, but the Eric Hosmer era is just on the horizon, so there's little room for error. A year ago, everybody thought Smoak was "a sure thing," then he hit .218 in half a season with Texas and Seattle. Still, he's a tailor-made post-hype sleeper. Barton finally got a firm hold on the A's first base job last year, as many had long been expecting, but he still hasn't shown much power, and much of his "real" value comes from his OBP and his defense, neither of which shows up on most fantasy stat sheets. Many predicted Loney to be a future batting champion after he hit .321 with a 915 OPS in his first two seasons (446 AB). In the past three he's hit .279 with a 751 OPS (1759 AB) and patience is wearing thin in L.A.

As you can tell, this is why I have some skepticism about the depth of this year's first-base class. There's plenty of talent in this tier and those that follow, but it is very, very unproven.

21. Brandon Allen, ARZ
22. Gaby Sanchez, FLA
23. Freddie Freeman, ATL
24. Ike Davis, NYM

Some will go a little gaga over Sanchez and Davis because they were considered Rookie of the Year candidates in 2010. But, let's be honest, as far as fantasy first baseman go, their numbers sucked.

Sanchez: .273 AVG, 72 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Davis: .264 AVG, 73 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB

Base on their minor-league records, I'm not convinced either is going to rapidly improve. If you're paying only a dollar or two, as you probably were last year, that's fine. But for the $15+ you might need to pay this season, I'd rather wait and take a cheap flyer on one of this year's rookies. Allen and Freeman are probably the best of the 2011 class.

26. Derrek Lee, BAL
27. Carlos Pena, CHC
28. Adam LaRoche, WAS
29. Lyle Overbay, TOR
30. Todd Helton, COL

Boring, boring, and more boring. That said, each of these guys will end up outperforming several of the young players I've listed ahead of them. They're basically 75 R, 20 HR, and 75 RBI in the bank (presuming health), but with potentially low averages. That ain't great for a starting first-baseman, but then again, only 11 players did substantially better in 2010. In a year light on "sure things," it might not be a bad idea to go boring with one of your low-end selections.

29. Mitch Moreland, TEX
30. Brett Wallace, HOU
31. Leslie Anderson, TBR
32. Brandon Belt, SFG
33. Chris Carter, OAK
34. Chris Davis, TEX
35. Yonder Alonso, CIN

The young player grab bag. You know the deal. Lots of upside. No certainty. No guaranteed playing time. Moreland and Wallace get the upper hand only because they appear destined make Opening Day lineups. Will they survive April? That's harder to tell.

Cardinals Offer To Pujols Is Borderline Insulting

2011-02-16T09:26:00.000-08:00

ESPN is reporting that Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals will not reach an agreement to extend Pujol's contract before the self-imposed deadline this afternoon. Assuming these reports are accurate and that Pujols remains firm in his stated refusal to negotiate during the season, this makes it a near certainty that the best player in the game will become a free agent.

ESPN does not report what exact offers the Cardinals made, but does speculate that they met Pujols demands for length (presumably between 8 and 10 years), but not for annual value. A "source close to the negotiations" claims, "The Cardinal's offer would place Pujols in baseball's top 10 in salary, but not in the top five in average annual value." For the record, assuming this "top 10" only includes active players, that means the Cardinals offer had an average annual value of somewhere between $19.5 Milllion and $24.9 Million (based on salary stats at Cot's Contracts).

Pujols and his agent are perfectly justified in turning down such an offer, would even be justified in characterizing it as something of an insult. According to FanGraphs calculations, Pujols has been worth more than $25 Million in each of his last six seasons and seven out of his last eight. In most cases, worth significantly more, peaking at $41.7 Million in 2008. But you don't need any such metric to recognize that Pujols is worth substantially more than Ryan Howard ($25 Mil./yr.), Mark Teixeira ($22.5 Mil./yr.), and even Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 Mil./yr.).

The Cardinals are pressuring Pujols to give them a "hometown discount," which is fine, except that he gave them a massive hometown discount with his last contract. I'm not quite clear on why St. Louis believes that it is their right to pay arguably the best player in the history of the game less than his market value for the entirety of his career. Tony LaRussa thinks Pujols is being pressured by the MLBPA. Tony LaRussa should definitely keep his mouth shut. But he may be right. The Union will look weak if the best player in their fold fails to bring home a contract worth at least $250 Million.

The Cardinals need to wake up. The offer they have on the table is clearly unreasonable in an open market. Certainly, they can justify deciding that for a team with their budget, $250 Million just isn't an option. Maybe they are worried about the fact that Pujols would almost certainly have entered into a moderate decline by the end of the deal. Fine. End the negotions. Start bracing yourself for the fact that the Red Sox, Angels, Giants, and Cubs could drive the bidding into the $300 Million range next winter. But don't pretend like you're negotiating in good faith and paint your franchise icon as greedy just because you're unwilling to pay a competitive price.

The Unintentional Martyring of Barry Bonds

2011-02-11T19:26:00.000-08:00

Thanks to loyal reader, Tim, for drawing my attention to this impassioned argument from Crashburn Alley and SweetSpot contributer, Bill Baer. And, thanks to Jason Rosenberg of It's All About The Money for promoting this very thoughful response from Bill of The Platoon Advantage. Ok...acknowledgements complete.

Caveat preemptor: Barry Bonds was, is, and always will be my favorite player. Though my vision is not so rose-tinted as to give me the ability to deny that he is, as are we all, quite fallible and undoubtedly has several causes for regret following his controversial career, I continue to believe that he has been more foully treated by the press and the baseball establishment than is warranted by his own admittedly foul treatment of others. He was, I grant, on many an occasion, a mean-spirited motherfucker, but he is certainly not alone in that habit among sublimely talented athletes.

Consider my bias acknowledged.

Now, Bill of The Platoon Advantage (as distinguished from Mr. Baer, also Bill) wisely begins his argument against Bonds collusion case by citing the definition of collusion in MLB's collective bargaining agreement. The moneyshot sentence is, "Players shall not act in concert with other players and clubs shall not act in concert with other clubs." Bill accurately observes that a strong legal case would probably require some documentation - a letter, a recorded conversation, maybe an email - in which somebody from a front office or from MLB was expressly telling a competitor not to negotiate with Bonds or his agent. For such a document to exist (especially some three years later) would bely an extraordinary act of incompetence and lack of foresight.

It should be noted, however, that in the previous instance of proven ownership collusion there was no such document, but the cased hinged largely on the deathbed admission of an owner who was in the room when commissioner Peter Ueberroth instructed an assembly of owners to stop offering long-term contracts to free agents. In this day and age it is almost impossible to keep a secret of this sort buried permanently, so, if there was in fact widespread and systematic collusion against Bonds, I think it's safe to predict that somebody's tongue will be loosened at some point down the road, though it will obviously be of little consequence to Bonds and maybe even to the MLBPA when it happens.

Not to resort to pedantry, but let's highlight that tidbit atop the last paragraph: the previous instance of ownership collusion. In the words of Mrs. Broflovski, "What-What-What?!?!" Yes, in the mid-eighties, an ownership contingent who still remembered the tremendous profitability of the indentured servitude which existed prior to free agency decided they'd bring back the glory days by agreeing that each owner would only offer contracts to his own players. They succeeded in this transparent fraud for three full seasons before getting caught and forced to pay a fine of some $280 Million (that's in 1980s dollars, by the by). Commissioner Peter Ueberroth is long gone. And surely none of the men who spearheaded this deeply anti-American scheme which gave The Pastime an additional black eye are still in positions of power. Right? Um...well, besides Ueberroth, two men were generally regarded as the ringleaders. In the AL it was Jerry Reinsdorf. Yes, he's still the owner of the Chicago White Sox. And in the NL it was Bud Selig. Yes, that Bud Selig.
(For more on the '80s collusion situation read Andrew Zimbalist, among others.)

If you can collude against an entire Union for three years and only get caught due to the guilty conscience of a cancerous whistle-blower, how hard would it be to collude against a single controversial player?

Bill frames his argument in terms of six questions to which I'd like to play devil's advocate (perhaps a poor choice of phrase when defending Bonds).

1.) How good was Bonds in 2008?

Bill doesn't have much of a leg to stand on here and he basically admits as much, so I won't dwell too long on the facts. Yes, Bonds was turning 43. Yes, he wasn't much of an outfielder any longer. Sure, his league-leading .480 OBP may have been inflated a touch by the intentional walks earned in part by reputation and in part by a paucity of lineup protection. But the simple fact is Bonds posted a 1045 OPS in 2007 and had a 1025 OPS over his previous three seasons. If Osama Bin Laden posted a four-digit OPS, some AL GM would almost certainly take a chance on him at Designated Hitter, dialysis machine and all.

Was Bonds still the best hitter in all of baseball in 2007? Probably not. Was he still part of that conversation? Most definitely.

2.) How much did he want to play, really?

A part of me, the part of me who watched Bonds religiously for two decades, wants to paint this question as ridiculous. Bonds was (and is?) an obsessive competitor who, though he had broken Hank Aaron's home run record, still had lots of personal milestones to shoot for. He needed 65 hits to get to 3,000. He needed four RBI to get to 2,000. It was not out of the question that he could be the first ever to make a run at 800 HR given a couple more years of good health. But, more importantly, the only thing tarnishing his baseball resume was the fact that he hadn't won a World Series. I think it's safe to say he would've paid an organization for another shot at the postseason, if the CBA allowed for such a thing.

But Bill does make some interesting points. The statements made be Jeff Borris, Bonds' agent, were perhaps hyperbolic (a sports agent exaggerates, what is the world coming to). Maybe Joe Posnanski is correct. Maybe Borris did not write a letter to Kansas City GM, Dayton Moore, specifically offering Bonds services for the league minimum. The question then is, did Dayton Moore, upon hearing that offer in the press, consider calling Borris and taking him up on it? Why not? The hoopla would've been good for the Royals. Just the people coming to boo and throw syringes and hold up asterisk signs could've doubled K.C.'s attendance.

But I jest.

Where Bill runs a little astray is when he says that after the regular season started "you might forgive baseball's front offices for being a little reticent to go out and hire a guy entering his mid-forties who, as far as they know, hadn't played baseball for nearly a year." Seriously? For the league minimum, you don't think anybody had a cause, maybe even a responsibility, to kick the tires on a seven-time MVP whose last homer was less than a year old? These are the same front offices who didn't hesitate to bring back midseason versions of Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez, who jumped on the opportunity to employ a 40-year-old Jim Edmonds following an layoff of nearly two years, who continue to find reasons to pay Mark Prior, who hasn't pitched at the major-league level in five years, who brought Rickey Henderson back for the independent leagues at age 44. I do not forgive their reticence, Bill, nor to I believe that thirty men, at least half of whom are either 1.) very bright or 2.) very risk-averse, and a few of whom may be both, actually made such a decision without intervention.

3.) Was there anything to all those off-the-field concerns?

Were there ever to be a real collusion investigation, this is where Bud Selig and his league of blundering gentlemen would hang their hats (Seriously, do all the incompetent rich guys end up owning baseball teams? I'm looking at you Fred Wilpon...and Tom Hicks...and Frank McCourt...). There is, of course, genuine reason to be skeptical of a player with a federal indictment hanging over his head. And, at the time, it wasn't entirely obvious that the indictment was drummed-up by overzealous publicity-hungry thrillseekers from the DEA and DA's office who wouldn't hesitate to throw millions of taxpayer dollars at an unwinnable case. Go, go gadget government. But that's another story.

Still, it was pretty clear that even if the case were absolutely rock-solid, it wasn't going to go to court during the '08 season. You didn't have to be a legal expert to see this, though I'm sure that every franchise does have a few legal experts in their rolodex, just in case they want that type of confirmation.

I don't have time to list all the players who've faced prosecution, sometime even on violent felony charges, at some time or another during their playing careers. I'm going to assume that even the most casual sports fan can bring three examples to mind in under a minute's reflection. Do you think if K-Rod had been a free agent this offseason, nobody would've made him a cheap addition to the back of their bullpen? Has anybody fired Milton Bradley yet? Seriously, anybody? In the wake of the Moneyball revolution, there wasn't a single GM who saw a promising risk-to-reward ratio in adding Barry Bonds for the same price as, say, Alex Cora?

One of the circumstantial pieces of evidence that was so troubling during the 2008 offseason was that in an era where anonymously-sourced rumors get floated more or less constantly (Haven't you heard, Carmelo Anthony's going to the Lakers.), there were curiously few speculative reports about teams even talking to Bonds agent. Borris, who is, granted, a somewhat unreliable source, confirmed after the fact that what few discussions he did have about Bonds were always begun by him. That's just weird.

4.) Who should have wanted him?

Short answer, of course, is EVERYBODY. Remember that four-digit OPS. Yeah? 193 players got 450+ plate appearances in 2007. Nine of them had a 1000+ OPS and only two of them, A-Rod and Big Papi, had a higher OPS than Bonds. If you don't want a hitter like that on your team, you obviously don't belong in a baseball front office. Bill points out that many teams already had players slotted into left field and/or DH and, sure, if you were one of those teams, like the Red Sox, for instance, who had studs at both positions, you could be forgiven for passing on Barry, but have you noticed how many teams employ multiple DH types these days? How many players are in the Rangers LF/DH rotation right now? How about the Orioles? Twins? Frankly, most GMs would seem to be of the opinion, when you have a shot at a premium hitter, you take it and figure out how the pieces fit together later.

5.) Why hasn't a grievance been filed?

Bill believes that because the MLBPA has not recently released any statement regarding the collusion allegations, which they last claimed to be investigating in the winter of 2008, they must not have found anything. Of course, Bill's own point, about the difficulty of legally proving collusion, is one explanation for the delay. It could easily take more than two and a half years for usable evidence to surface. As mentioned above, it took longer than that the last time this happened, and one would expect that Selig & Co. might have learned something from getting caught.

There are other factors here as well. In case you haven't noticed, the MLBPA has had some other things on its plate recently. There's that whole Scarlet S thing and then there's a regime change and there's some fishy stuff going on down in South America and the league is trying to get leverage to change the amateur draft and there's been some tension within the union and Selig is generally regarded as one of the most powerful commissioners in the history of the game (but he can't stay in office forever right) and there's those other two leagues which are about to go on strike/get locked out and it might be really nice for everybody involved in baseball to be on the side of the one major American team sport (hockey doesn't count) not embroiled in ugly labor strife for once. You get the picture.

Be mindful, there is no statute of limitations as to when the MLBPA can come back to the collusion argument.

6.) Would collusion have made any sense to anybody?

I really like Bill's point here:

"Here's the thing, though: it only takes one chiseler. One Andrew Friedman or Billy Beane to decide that no, he doesn't believe that, and that he's going to sign Bonds anyway, the cartel be damned. If that single GM doesn't believe the central premise upon which the collusive agreement is based, there's absolutely no motivation for him to join in the agreement. Likewise, because the other teams have no way of keeping that one team in check, there's no motivation for them to collude in the first place; if the 30 teams agree, they'll simply act accordingly without actually colluding about it (tacit collusion, remember?), and if one of them doesn't, then there was nothing to be done for that at any rate.

The only scenario under which this does make some sense to me, then, is one in which it's not really the thirty teams driving the illicit behavior, but rather some central authority -- we'll call him Spud Cheelig, just because -- who exercises some power over the teams in order to coerce back into line those that might otherwise not obey."

Bill's right, this is territory where one has to tread carefully. There are sharks in the water, which is why, at this point, I want to make a critical distinction. When Bill takes up the question of collusion, the assumption he makes from the start is that we are discussing the potential of legal repercussions; that, to be called "collusion," it must fall clearly within the definition outlined by the CBA. Basically, it's not collusion if no court could reasonably be expected to call it that. And on these grounds I think Bill has a strong case. It will take more evidence than is currently available to the general public for Bonds to make his case stick with a judge or an arbitrator and by the point that evidence surfaces (if it ever does) he may be so sick of courtrooms he wouldn't even want to bother with it.

But, let's go back to Mr. Baer's original article which concludes as such:

"Whether MLB and the owners care to admit it or not, they colluded against Bonds to keep him from playing baseball after the '07 season. That, not the rampant steroid use during the 1990s and early 2000s, will be what ultimately leaves a black eye on baseball's history."

Mr. Baer's casual use of "collusion" was, by my reading, not a legal argument, but rather a historical one. And, though MLB may never be formally charged with collusion, the court of history gives circumstantial evidence much greater credence.

The "black eye on baseball's history" will not necessarily be founded upon unsealed documents, courtroom transcripts, payrolls, statistics, and deathbed confessions, it may, like many episodes in history, bear only a passing resemblance to truth, but it may go something like this:

Cue Yo-Yo Ma performing a sombre B-minor version of 'Take Me Out To The Ballgame'; Samuel L. Jackson narrates over footage from Bonds record-breaking '07 season.

Barry Bonds, one of the most controversial, most popular, and most talented players in the history of the game, was forced into retirement following a season in which he broke the most hallowed record in professional sports, a record formerly held by his Commissioner's hometown hero. Bud Selig, who ceaselessly voiced his admiration for former home run king, Hank Aaron, was reluctantly on hand to see the record broken and stood somberly, hands in his pockets, as Bonds celebrated #756 with his teammates, his young son, and the ecstatic fans of his longtime team, the San Francisco Giants.

As Jackson and Ma continue, Ken Burns pans and scans across pictures from the Congressional hearings, Bonds' trial, and Selig's press conferences.

Although there was nothing to suggest that Bonds' considerable powers as a hitter had been dramatically reduced, he was unable to find another job following the season. Impeding his search was an ill-timed federal indictment (the case was eventually thrown out of court) and the Selig-sponsored Mitchell Report, released in the winter of 2007. The Mitchell Report, which was not comprehensive or legally binding, named Bonds alongside 80-some other players who allegedly used steroids during the 1990s and 2000s. In the wake of the report, designed to be the last word in the PED scandal (it wasn't, not by a long shot), Selig and much of the baseball establishment were eager to put the so-called Steroid Era behind them. Although no allegations against Bonds ever lived up to the courts' burden of evidence, he became, along with Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, and Andy Pettitte, one of the faces of the "Steroid Era." It seemed incompatible with Selig's eagerness to move past the scandal for Bonds to remain on the field, adding to record-setting totals which many, including the Commissioner, believed to be of dubious origins.

The narrative jumps forward to footage of Alex Rodriguez in pinstripes, generally looking pleased with himself.

A decade later, a player whose career overlapped with Bonds and who admitted using steroids, though he was never named in the Mitchell Report, managed to break Bonds career home run record in the final year of his career, though he was but a glimmer of his former self. Bonds and Selig were both on hand to honor A-Rod's fete, though neither could disguise their ambivalence. Rodriguez, PEDs or not, never put together a season on par with Bonds at the peak of his powers and many baseball fans are forced to wonder what Bonds career would've been like had he been allowed to end it on his own terms.

The camera retreats from the number 25 affixed to the outfield wall in at San Francisco's PacBell Park.

End scene.

Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

2011-02-09T16:43:00.000-08:00

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:

"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher. Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work. Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them. There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI). The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."

That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010. Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer). Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki). And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck). Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing. Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.

The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.

1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL

Nothing's changed. These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers. I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.

4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE

I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump. Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star. I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth. The reason? Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season? It wasn't Posey. It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann. It was Geovany Soto. He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI. Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.

7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX

Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise. I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).

11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA

These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates. Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him. If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter. The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas. The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues. Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.

14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS

You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable. All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories. You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.

19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL

This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates. They're all fairly young. They've all got some upside. And they all seem in line for full-time jobs. That could certainly change. Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before. They've always bombed. But this could be the year, right?

23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB

When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it. Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG. If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop. Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone? I bet you could. Will you?

The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter. He's still just 26. The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.

30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS

These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects. Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011. Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim. The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010. Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada. However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity. Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.

34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS

Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

Bargain Basement

2011-02-07T19:18:00.000-08:00

There were some interesting late-Hot Stove signings this past week. Most notably, Vlad Guerrero finally landed in Baltimore, as many had been anticipating. As I discussed last week, I'm not completely sold on this move for the Orioles because I don't think it gets them into playoff picture, but a one-year, $8 Million contract for a 35-year-old coming off a pretty impressive resurgence is totally reasonable. I'm certainly rooting for Vlad to have enough good years in him to pile up a few HOF milestones (he currently sits at 2427 hits, 436 HR, 1433 RBI).

A much sneakier deal got done in Chicago, as Kenny Williams showed his caginess in the acquisition of Lastings Milledge. Once considered a top prospect, Milledge, now entering his sixth season (but still only 25-years-old) has gotten pegged with the "bad attitude" label. Certainly, his performance has been pretty putrid in New York, Washington, and Pittsburgh, but he was clearly rushed through the minors and a breakout year is well within the realm of possibility (see Delmon Young in 2010). Milledge could steal some at-bats from Juan Pierre and provide insurance for the oft-injured Carlos Quentin. The White Sox needed somebody to fill that role. At $500,000, Milledge could be a steal.

There's not much left of the 2011 free agent class, but here's a couple of players who your team could still find a use for...

Jeremy Bonderman - SP

Bonderman's overall numbers in 2010 were pretty abyssmal (8-10, 5.53 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). But the most important number was this one: 171 IP. For a guy who missed most of the previous two season recovering from shoulder surgeries, that's a pretty impressive workload. After such a long layoff, one can certainly see how it might take Bonderman a full year to get anywhere near full strength. However, if he does regain at least a modicum of his former talent, he would be a downright steal. Before his shoulder problems, he looked destined to be a solid #2 or #3 in any rotation. He's still just 28. The only team who's reported any interest in Bonderman thusfar is the Indians, which seems a fairly logical fit. The Yankees seem to be collecting pitching projects and Bonderman is certainly no more of a long shot than some of those they've already brought on board. Other reasonable suitors include the Mariners, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates.

Cristian Guzman - 2B/SS

Guzman didn't help his case by faring poorly as a super-utility player in Texas after a midseason trade, but he's a very underrated middle infielder who hits for a decent average, consistently puts the ball in play, and is at least an average defender at two difficult positions. And let's face it, there's not a ton of shortstop talent around these days. The Astros, Brewers, Pirates, and Mariners are all currently limited to guys with far worse track records than Guzman.

BBWAA Drinks Michele Bachmann's Bathwater (or, Cooperstown, Arizona)

2011-02-02T17:01:00.000-08:00

As Ken Burns' Tenth Inning documentary so subtly points out, if we weren't so inclined to call the last two decades of baseball history "The Steroid Era," they would most certainly be defined by the influx of immigrant ballplayers - from Europe, from Asia, and especially from Latin America. If you demarcate the Steroid Era from the introduction of the "Bash Brothers" (1987) to the retirement of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds (2007), you see a heretofore unparalleled degree of Hispanic talent. The Nineties and Naughties were for Latino players and fans what the '50s and '60s had been for African-Americans.

When the "Puerto Rican Jackie Robinson," Roberto Clemente, died bringing supplies to Nicaraguan earthquake victims in the winter of 1973, the BBWAA rightly held a special election, the first and still the only of its kind. They enshrined Clemente without the usual five-year waiting period. However, since that time the BBWAA's recognition of Hispanic players has been relatively sparing. When Roberto Alomar takes the stage in Cooperstown this summer, he will be only the fifth Latino voted in by the BBWAA. That's right, in nearly forty years the BBWAA has found only five Hispanics worthy of induction: Juan Marichal ('83), Luis Aparicio ('84), Rod Carew ('91), Tony Perez ('00), and Alomar ('11). A handful of other deserving Hispanic stars, most notably Orlando Cepeda, had to find their way into the Hall through the back door (a.k.a. The Veterans Committee), which only further highlights the BBWAA's distressingly prejudicial track record.

But that's about to change, right? Alomar is but the first of the floodtide of Puerto Rican, Domincan, Venezuelan, and Cuban megastars who came to dominate the game during the Clinton-Bush decades and will eventually wash up on the Elysium shores of Cooperstown. Their entrance into the Hall cannot be denied, right?

Not so fast.

You see, one of the dirty little secrets about the tacit ban of PED-abusers being enforced by the BBWAA voters is that it cuts broadly swatches in the Latin-American baseball legacy. I'm not saying that's it's overt aim, but it is what's happening. And, when it comes to prejudicial treatment, rationales generally don't carry much water. Yes, Bonds and Clemens grab more headlines and have been the subject of more legal prosecution (or persecution, depending on how you look at it), but their notoriety, coupled with that of Mark McGwire, may mislead us into seeing this as a black and white issue (pardon the horrible pun).

It always feels a little dirty breaking things down along racial lines, but I think it's necessary to see what I'm taking about. In the wake of Jeff Bagwell's poor showing, it seems clear the BBWAA intends to stigmatize not only convicted and/or admitted abusers, but also those who have been indicted by widespread rumor. Here's a rough list of Hall of Fame candidates (let me emphasize, some of these guys would be borderline cases, even without the PED issue) who have been branded with the Scarlet S:

African-American:

Barry Bonds*
Gary Sheffield*

Caucasian:

Roger Clemens*
Mark McGwire*
Jeff Bagwell
Jason Giambi
Andy Pettitte
Kevin Brown

Hispanic:

Alex Rodriguez*
Sammy Sosa*
Manny Ramirez*
Rafael Palmeiro*
Ivan Rodriguez*
David Ortiz
Juan Gonzalez
Jose Canseco
Miguel Tejada
Luis Gonzalez

*Denotes lock for enshrinement if it weren't for PED allegations.

No doubt there will be additions to this list in the intervening years. Every voter who sees himself as a "moral policeman" has probably already passed judgement on a few players who the general public may not even suspect. What I want to draw your attention to is the "stars."

Were it not for the stigma of PEDs, we would, over the next decade, be seeing the Hispanic "wing" of the Hall of Fame adding as many members as it did in the entirety of the previous century. In fact, with guys like Pedro Martinez, Vladimir Guerrero, Omar Vizquel, and Mariano Rivera also gaining eligibility sometime in the relatively near future (none, so far as I know, has yet been linked to PEDs), we could've seen the total Latino contingent as much as tripling in size during the early part of the 21st century.

No place was more associated with the revolution of Latino baseball than the Dominican Republic. Most now regard the island as the greatest concentration of baseball talent in the world. As yet, however, there is only one Dominican Hall of Famer, Juan Marichal. No Dominican position players have been inducted. Sammy Sosa, who self-consciously took the mantle of "Dominican Clemente," was supposed to change that. In terms of power-hitting, his five season stretch from '98 to '02 is unparalleled in history. He leads all Dominican-born players in homers. But, unless something changes, he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

Nor will Manny Ramirez, possibly the greatest hitter of the Dominican Immigration Era (I'd argue Albert Pujols, but Manny did get a seven-year headstart, making him more of a groundbreaker). By the end of this season, Manny will lead all Dominican players in hits, runs, doubles, walks, and RBI. Yet we may have to wait until five years after Pujols retires (2025? 2030?) to see the induction of a Dominican hitter.

Pudge Rodriguez will likely be the first catcher to 3000 hits. He was the best of a generation of Latino backstops who revolutionized the position, including Benito Santiago (Puerto Rico), Tony Pena (Dominican Republic), Sandy Alomar Jr. (P.R.), and the Molina brothers (P.R.). Prior to late '80s, it was totally normal to give Gold Gloves to fat white catchers who didn't throw anybody out. Then stuff like this started happening routinely. It's not exaggeration to say Puerto Rican catchers changed the game; however, the BBWAA probably won't find room for a Puerto Rican catcher in Cooperstown.

Rafael Palmeiro was born in Havana, Cuba in 1964. It wasn't the most important thing that happened in Cuba that year. But he became, far and away, the most successful Cuban hitter in Major League Baseball history, only the fourth player (of any nationality) to get 3000 hits and 500 homers. But there's no room for this defector in Cooperstown.

Over the next decade Alex Rodriguez will take aim at several major records. When he retires, he will be included in the "greatest ever" discussion, alongside Ruth, Bonds, and Mays. He'll be the first player of Hispanic descent to enter into that conversation. But, unless something changes, he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

For a long time now, baseball has been a global game. Hell, MLB has been actively touting itself as such for at least a decade. Yet, for some odd reason, from 2001 to 2010, during a decade defined by globalization, the BBWAA voted in eight white guys and eight black guys, all born in the United States. That ratio has got to change, but a contingent of patronizing writers within the BBWAA have found a way to assure that it won't, at least not as drastically as it should.

In 21st-Century America, we are sensitive to accusations of racism, which is, perhaps, a good place to start. But it doesn't mean we aren't racist. When we want to drum up racist or nativist sentiments, we rail against illegal immigrants, welfare mothers, the uneducated and unemployed, drug abusers, and terrorists. It isn't our fault that most of the people who make up these criticized constituencies happen to be minorities. If they happen to observe that their minority status may be the precursor to lack of opportunity, education, etc. which is the stated grounds for their persecution, we call it "perceived racism." There is no such thing.

The BBWAA has to ask themselves, when history looks back at their moral crusade, what will the Scarlet S really stand for.

Orioles Brass Abandons Baby Birds?

2011-01-28T19:02:00.000-08:00

For the first time since 1997, Baltimore baseball fans have something to get excited about. Yes, 2010 was their 13th consecutive losing season, but they capped it off by going 34-23 (.596) under midseason managerial hire, Buck Showalter. The excitement surrounding Buck's Baby Birds prompted Eric Karabell to predict that every team in the AL East had a legitimate shot at a .500 record in 2011. And he's not wrong.

What odd about this offseason, however, is that after four seasons strongly committed to the youth movement - drafting, player development, and money-saving measures - Andy MacPhail, the Orioles GM, seems to be moving in a different direction, loading his roster with questionable veterans.

It began innocently enough, as MacPhail traded David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio to the D-Backs for slugging cornerman, Mark Reynolds. Hernandez and Mickolio were both fairly promising pitchers, still in their mid-twenties. It was testament to the Orioles farm system that they had both fallen so far back on the depth chart as to be truly expendable. And it's not as though Reynolds is past his prime. Though coming off a down year, he's only 27 and signed to very favorable terms through the 2012 season. He immediately becomes Baltimore's most substantial power threat.

What the Reynolds trade does do is block the progress of top prospect Josh Bell. Although the two-month audition at the tail end of 2010 suggested Bell isn't quite ready for "the Show," he just turned 24 and possesses a decent power profile himself...and without Reynolds propensity for leading the league in strikeouts, flirting with the Mendoza line, and flashing a iron glove.

Three days after acquiring Reynolds, MacPhail picked up another pair of infielders from the Minnesota Twins, slick-fielding shortstop, J. J. Hardy, and utilityman, Brendan Harris. For them, he surrendered a pair of young relievers, Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobsen. Again, both pitchers were well down the Orioles depth chart and Hardy represented a major upgrade at shortstop. With only one year left on his contract, he won't impede the ascent of 18-year-old phenom, Manny Machado.

Shortly after New Year's Day, Baltimore added another veteran rental, 35-year-old first-baseman, Derrek Lee, looking to rebuild his market coming off his worst season since 1999. MacPhail also signed mediocre reliever cum closer, Kevin Gregg, coming off a career year, and reclamation project, Jeremy Accardo. He resigned 30-year-old shortstop, Cesar Izturis, after a year in which he posted the lowest OPS of any batting title eligible player in over a decade (you're welcome, Neifi Perez). Now there are widespread reports they are nearing a deal with 35-year-old DH, Vladimir Guerrero.

What gives? Does MacPhail really believe the O's are ready to compete in 2011? If so, I'd have to question his sanity. The Orioles would need to leapfrog at least two of the three AL East powerhouses - New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay - just to get into the playoff conversation. As much as I admire the talent they've assembled, they don't have a proven frontline starter, a premier closer, or a perennial MVP candidate. The Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees can all boast of at least two of those three things.

If MacPhail isn't delusional about his chance to contend, these moves are even more difficult to parse. Baltimore will have it's highest payroll since 2007 (MacPhail's first year) by a rather wide margin. They've sacrificed a pair of first-round draft picks (Vlad and Lee were both Class A free agent), as well as four pitching prospects who all have at least modest major-league careers in front of them. And they've created some troublesome roster math.

Reynolds, Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, Izturis, Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Luke Scott, are all assured roster spots. Somebody, probably Jake Fox, will need to be the back-up catcher. Robert Andino is out of minor-league options, which means Baltimore must either keep him in the majors or lose him. No matter how it shakes out, Bell, as well as Nolan Reimold and/or Felix Pie, will spend far too much of 2011 either in AAA or riding major-league pine, instead of having their abilities tested and their development furthered.

Moreover, the Orioles are now committing themselves to below average defensive players at third and in at least one of the outfield spots. The Orioles struggled on defense in 2010 (105 E, -22.9 UZR) and it could be worse in 2011. That's never a good thing, but could be especially frustrating for a young rotation which has to face in inordinate number of very patient lineups (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox) and could/should be limited by pitching counts and innings caps.

Perhaps there is method to this madness. Perhaps MacPhail has something else up his sleeve (trading Luke Scott, for instance). But, so far as I can tell, the Orioles haven't made themselves enough better in the short term to compensate for the damage they may be doing to their long term prospects.

Fantastic Thoughts: Perception v. Deception in the Outfield

2011-01-28T16:53:00.000-08:00

The first round of fantasy mags has hit the stands and mainstream sources like ESPN, CBS, etc. have started publishing their preseason rankings. Obviously, much will change between now and Opening Day, but I'd like to highlight some relative injustices I'm seeing in my early perusal of these resources. You can also check out my preseason rankings.

Brett Gardner, LF (Yankees) v. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (Red Sox)

After posting a WAR of 5.4 in his first full season - that's good for 5th among AL outfielders, by the way - I don't think anybody would deny that Brett Gardner is a better all-around player than Jacoby Ellsbury. I'll acknowledge, however, that in fantasy there are occasions when it doesn't pay to take the better player and those occasions usually do involve guys like Ellsbury who have the potential to pile up stolen bases at a league-leading clip. This isn't one of those occasions.

Ellsbury is nearly unanimously ranked as a top twenty outfielder (top five in the AL) while Gardner barely breaks the top 50. The Sporting News has Ellsbury valued at double the price of Gardner ($30 v. $15) in AL-only auctions. Here's a few reason why that's ludicrous, starting with the stats for each of their best seasons:

Jacoby Ellsbury '09: .301/.355/.415 - 94 R - 8 HR - 60 RBI - 70 SB - 624 AB
Brett Gardner '10: .277/.383/.379 - 97 R - 5 HR - 47 RBI - 47 SB - 477 AB

As you can see, Gardner's OBP skills aid him in piling up runs at a significantly higher rate than Ellbury, while his HR, RBI, and SB rates are comparable (if Gardner had gotten 624 AB he was on pace for 7 HR, 62 RBI, 62 SB).

600+ ABs are not assured for either of these players, but if I had to bet on one of them reaching that mark, I'd actually take Gardner. Coming off a year in which Ellsbury was riddled with injuries and immersed in clubhouse controversies, there is no guarantee he remains an everyday player. Mike Cameron is still hanging around. Darnell McDonald will be looking to steal at-bats. And Ryan Kalish is a superior offensive talent who proved in the second-half of 2010 that he's on the verge of being major-league ready. While many assume Gardner will again be submitted to a platoon (presumably with Andruw Jones), he actually fared okay against lefties in 2010 (725 OPS). In all likelihood, Jones will frequently spell Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada, or Nick Swisher instead.

What you're looking at is a pair of speedy 27-year-old outfielders, both of whom hit in loaded lineups and have the permanent green light. I can certainly imagine Ellsbury having a solid season and returning to his '09 production, but I think Gardner is, at the very least, comparable and could be available for as little as half the price.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Gardner #29, Ellsbury #30

Curtis Granderson, CF (Yankees) v. Austin Jackson, CF (Tigers)

Remember last winter's blockbuster. Here's how that worked out, based on 2010 WAR:

Yankees: Curtis Granderson (3.6)
Tigers: Austin Jackson (3.8), Max Scherzer (3.7), Daniel Schlereth (0.1)
D-Backs: Ian Kennedy (2.4), Daniel Hudson (2.0), Edwin Jackson (1.8)

Yes, the early returns have been much better for Arizona and Detroit, especially when you consider that the combined salaries of Scherzer, Kennedy, Hudson, and Schlereth are less than what Granderson will make in 2011.

That aside, however, it does not make any sense to rank Austin Jackson ahead of Curtis Granderson on your fantasy draft board. Let's take a look at their second-half splits for 2010, after Grandy got healthy and the league adjusted to the Detroit rookies:

Granderson: .253/.338/.523 - 44 R - 17 HR - 43 RBI - 5 SB - 241 AB
Jackson: .285/.336/.397 - 51 R - 3 HR - 21 RBI - 13 SB - 305 AB

Jackson posted the highest BABIP in the majors (.396) and the 5th highest strikeout rate in the AL (27.5%), both of which suggest he's a prime candidate for the dreaded sophomore slump. Meanwhile, Granderson will hit in the midst of a thunderous lineup in a ballpark tailored for left-handed power. Given a fully healthy 2011 campaign, he's 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank, with the potential for more.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Granderson #19, Jackson #52

Garrett Jones, 1B/OF (Pirates) v. Basically Anybody (Anywhere)

He's consistently making the top 60 among outfielders (the Sporting News has him as high as #40) even though he was hardly a replacement level player in 2010 (0.1 WAR). His power (21 HR) makes him fantasy relevant, but only if he's in the lineup...and Pittsburgh seems to have realized his limitations. They signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz during the offseason and they'll bring younger, more versatile players like John Bowker, Steve Pearce, Jeff Clement, and Alex Presley to camp. The only way Garrett Jones gets 500 AB this year is if he gets traded to the Mariners.

Meanwhile, guys like Josh Willingham, Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Brad Hawpe, and Cody Ross are cheap sources of power with similar skill sets and substantially more upside.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Willingham #45, Gomes #67, Joyce #72, Ross #74, Burrell #76, Jones #90

Chris Young, CF (D-Backs) v. Drew Stubbs, CF (Reds)

Nobody knows what to do with these guys, both of whom are coming off 20/20 seasons and have real 30/30 potential, but are also batting average drains. I've seen them both ranked as high as 12-15 and as low as 40-45.

Finally in the "post-hype" stage of his career, Young was very quietly a top 15 fantasy outfielder in 2010. Entering his fifth full season, Young is that magical age: 27. The age alone is certainly not enough to assure his ascendence among the elite fantasy outfielders. However, there are other positive indicators. He posted a career low strikeout rate in 2010, while keeping his walk rate at a decent level (11.1%), which led to a substantial improvement in OBP (.341). Young will probably always be a free swinger and may never hit .280, but his other talents can shine so long as he maintains this level of patience.

Stubbs started the 2010 season slow and nearly lost his job, but he came on very strong after the break and was on fire for most of the last two months. Over a 47 game stretch he hit .305 with 9 HR, 11 steals, and a 944 OPS. I see more streakiness in Stubbs future. It's a fairly common problem for young power hitters. Like the young Young, Stubbs has not figured out the strikezone. Only Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds struck out at a greater rate (32.7%) among NL hitters and they, of course, hit more homers and drew a lot more walks.

Stubbs played college ball and then spent several seasons in the minors, so he's only about a year younger than Young and shouldn't suffer as drastic growing pains (Young's development included a short return to AAA in 2009), but there will be some.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Young #14, Stubbs #28

Plowing The Depths of the Designated Hitting Market

2011-01-22T19:54:00.000-08:00

When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work. You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon. As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues. Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:

Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB

However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.

ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting. It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.

However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math. There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October. Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned. Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain. Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base. Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked. John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.

The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson. That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season. The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.

If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings. Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball. It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.

I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players. Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.

This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings. Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.

I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:

Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH

Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).

Toronto Blue Jays:

Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco. Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced. Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs. But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.

The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities. Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs. And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.

The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that. Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career). Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly). The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B. Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.

None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos. He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll. One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).

Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.

Minnesota Twins:

The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round. The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder." Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:

Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)

Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.

Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders. Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Fantastic Thoughts: Everybody's Underrated in Canada

2011-01-19T12:19:00.000-08:00

Since the mid-nineties, few save diehards like myself, have felt it necessary to follow that friendly fourth-place team from north of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays. Canadian baseball fans have dwindled, robbed of one franchise and forced to watch another languish in baseball's toughest division. You probably don't realize that over the last six seasons the Jays are actually twenty games over .500, having never won fewer than 75 games. If they were in any other division, they would routinely be playing meaningful games in August and September and would likely have brought home at least one or two division titles during that span.

In fantasy baseball, as the 2010 season proved once again, it doesn't pay to ignore the Jays. Toronto hit 46 more homers than any other team in baseball last year. That's right. Even if they hadn't had the MLB leader in homers, Jose Bautista, they would've been second in the majors in long balls. (Note: On the other side of things, the Jays finished dead last in the AL in steals, with 58. That's right, the entire team managed fewer steals than Juan Pierre.)

As such a dramatic team-wide power surge suggests, some of the year's best deals came out of Toronto. Most notably, Bautista, generally ignored in all by the deepest leagues, compiled the biggest home run total by any player since 2007 and was also among the league leaders in runs, RBI, walks, and OPS. Vernon Wells, the once-promising centerfielder who many had left for dead after a string of rather dismal campaigns, had his first 30+ HR season since 2006 (and didn't kill your batting average either). You probably could've had him for $1 add the tail end of your mixed-league auction.

John Buck, a infinitely forgettable 30-year-old catcher who wasn't even guaranteed a starting job when the season began, posted career highs in nearly every relevant offensive category (I kid you not: runs, hits, doubles, homers, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG). Alex Gonzalez, a veteran shortstop generally favored only for his defense, who hadn't hit more than 16 homers in a season since 2004, hit 17 in half a season in Toronto, before being traded to the Braves. He also finished the season with career highs in 2B, HR, and RBI.

One might assume, with balls flying out of the Skydome at such an alarming rate and from such unexpected sources, that Blue Jays pitchers were not quite as promising investments. But that wasn't exactly the case. When Spring Training began, many fantasy analysts didn't have a clue who was going to be in the Toronto rotation. Doc Halladay was gone and the only other pitchers with significant track records - Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Dustin McGowan - were all coming off major injuries with uncertain timetables for recovery. There was a three-headed competition for the closer's job, with no clear favorite. Basically, you could've had any Blue Jays pitcher for a song. And several were worth well more than that.

It took him until a week or so into the season, but Kevin Gregg eventually won the closer's job and compiled a nice total of saves (37), though with somewhat suspect rate numbers (3.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum became the team's co-Aces, and though their numbers were unspectacular, they were a solid addition to the backend of any fantasy staff. Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow emerged as good in-season pickups. Cecil didn't start the season in the majors, but ended up leading the team in wins, with 15. His second-half was particularly strong (for a 24-year-old), as he went 8-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Morrow spend the whole year in the rotation (save a brief stint on the DL), but he wasn't exactly drawing many suitors when his ERA sat a 6.80 on May 25th. Thereafter, the converted reliever became one of the best strikeout artists in the American League, going 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 119 K in 101 innings.

But all that was last year, right?

Buck, Gonzalez, Gregg, and Marcum have all moved on to other teams, most of which don't offer quite as promising environs (Marcum is the exception). Nobody's going to be sleeping on Bautista coming off his breakout year. Wells is a notoriously risky investment who had tricked people before. Do the 2011 Jays promise to have any sleepers?

Well, I think Morrow, Cecil, and Romero will all remain under value. All are in their mid-twenties. An additional step forward in the development process would be enough to make them borderline elite pitchers. There's no guarantee that happens this year, but it could. And you certainly won't have to pay for it. In many leagues, because they play in Toronto, these pitchers will go completely unrecognized, even though their numbers are just as promising (if not moreso) than youngsters like Phil Hughes, Wade Davis, and Brian Matusz who will get much more attention.

Also, if you were paying attention at the beginning of last year, you'll recall that nobody was expecting Bautista and Wells to be the workhorses in the middle of the Jays lineup. That duty was supposed to fall to Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. These were guys who had even gotten some MVP consideration in 2009. Both were coming off seasons of 35+ HR and 100+ RBI. Both sputtered big time in 2010. Although they still hit some homers (23 for Lind, 26 for Hill), neither managed to get his OBP above .300 or his average above .240, and all their other numbers suffered accordingly. While it's probably true that neither should be expected to return to their '09 levels, both also suffered from some tremendously bad luck. Steep dropoffs in BABIP (Hill had by far the lowest BABIP of any player in the majors) suggest they have a strong chance of getting back to somewhere between their '09 and '10 production. If that means 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI with averages in the .270 range, you should be getting good value.

Toronto is a good place for players with power. Last week, I included J. P. Arencibia among my top five fantasy rookies for exactly that reason. Travis Snider and Edwin Encarnacion, though not rookies, are also potential beneficiaries. Encarnacion hit five homers in the last four games of 2010. Obviously, that's a small sample size, but he's a former top prospect who had been struggling with injuries. Fully healthy and limited primarily to DH duties, the 28-year-old could be primed for a breakout year. The Jays rushed Snider to the bigs (he played his first MLB game at age 20). As a result, even though he's now just 23, many fantasy players will have forgotten about him. Remember last winter how everybody had decided that 24-year-old Delmon Young was a flop? Snider could follow that pattern.

Finally, one word about Jose Bautista. There will be no shortage of leagues in which Jose Bautista, coming off his 54 HR season, will actually be underrated. How could this be? Well, of course, many cagey skeptics will conclude that he can't possible repeat that production. Beware taking that rational too far. The baseball season is long. It's hard to stay consistent throughout, especially if you're a player who's playing above his abilities. Evidence of "flukishness" will show up over the course of a season. Weaknesses will be found and exploited. Here's the thing though, Bautista's BABIP was actually substantially lower than his career average, so it's hard to argue he was getting lucky. And here are his monthly totals:

April: 4 HR, 741 OPS
May: 12 HR, 1188 OPS
June: 4 HR, 692 OPS
July: 11 HR, 1183 OPS
August: 12 HR, 1173 OPS
September: 11 HR, 935 OPS

To me, this doesn't look like a guy who's suffering from overexposure as the season progresses. As yet, there's no indication that the league has figured him out. Could it happen in 2011? Sure. But I think it is equally likely that Bautista is once again at 45+ HR and 110+ RBI hitter who has multiple position eligibility. Bautista's power surge was accompanied by sizable increases in his walk rate and a sizable decrease in his strikeout rate. Those are talents which, once learned, generally don't just disappear.

ADDENDUM: The Jays recently made official deals with Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel. So it would appear, just like last year, Spring Training will probably feature a three-way competition for closing duties between Rauch, Dotel, and Jason Frasor. Frasor actually won that competition last year, but was replaced in early April by Kevin Gregg, who held down the spot for most of the remaining season. I don't think one of these guys is dramatically better than the others, but all have previous closing experience (with some modicum of success) and because of the uncertainty, they will all come on the cheap. As somebody who always endorses prospecting for saves as late in your draft or auction as possible, you could do a lot worse than any (or all) of these guys, especially in deep leagues.

Wandy Rodriguez Is This Year's Cliff Lee?!?

2011-01-15T10:32:00.000-08:00

This found its way into by inbox yesterday:

"Last year Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt helped to carry teams into the postseason after being traded at midseason. Which potential aces could be on the market at this year's deadline?" - Jerry

Thanks, Jerry. It's an interesting question.

Yes, last year Roy Oswalt was traded from Houston to Philadelphia and his dominance during a stretch of a dozen starts (7-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was a significant factor in the Phillies late-season push.

Ruben Amaro made a very similar move for Cliff Lee in 2009 and Lee famously went 11-4 for his new franchise, including four wins in the postseason. Last year, however, Lee's story was slightly different. He actually struggled (by his standards) in his fifteen regular season starts for the Rangers (4-6, 3.98 ERA), but did manage to make Jon Daniels look pretty good in October.

In 2008, it was C. C. Sabathia who was the mercenary former Indian. He absolutely carried his new team, the Brewers, into the playoffs with a 17 start run in which he was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7(!) complete games.

In the very same year, Rich Harden moved from Oakland to Chicago and went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts, helping to guide the Cubs to their best season since the Roosevelt administration.

The upshot of all this is that, like Jerry, we've come to treat the trading of a "mercenary Ace" as a necessary part of the baseball narrative, when, in fact, history shows that the examples cited above are very much outliers. Could it be that this is a new trend in the 21st-century game that will continue indefinitely? Perhaps. But it's also very possible that we see little or no movement of premier starters at the 2011 deadline.

One thing that leads me to this conclusion is that the class of free agent starting pitchers next offseason doesn't feature a marquis name like Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia. Mark Buehrle is probably the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent to 2012.

Buehrle is certainly capable of having an Oswalt-esque stretch of dominance. However, the other factor that makes this question hard to answer is that the availability of a Buehrle or a Chris Carpenter is largely dependent on whether their current franchises are still in the playoff mix. Kenny Williams has certainly managed his offseason like a man who expects to be playing for the AL Central crown in August and September. If that's the case, the face of the franchise, Mark Buehrle, ain't goin' nowhere.

If there's going to be a "mercenary Ace" in 2011, Carpenter is probably the odds-on favorite. Carp's current contract features a $15 Million option for 2012. As good as Carpenter is when he's on the mound, that's a big number for what will be a 37-year-old pitcher with a long injury history. St. Louis, as you may have heard, has some other very expensive priorities, so it may be sensible for John Mozeliak to leave the tough decision about Carpenter's option to somebody else.

On the other hand, Carpenter is very, very popular in St. Louis. He's owes a great deal to Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa. And he has "no-trade" protection. If he believes St. Louis has a chance of getting themselves back in the playoff picture in the next couple years, he may simple decline to move.

It's not always impending free agents who are involved in these deals. Lee (in '09) and Oswalt both had additional years when they were traded. There are certainly scenarios in which one could see Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, or Tim Hudson being shopped, but all of their teams are entering the season with sincere playoff aspirations. Even if they were to go on the market, each would command a relatively massive package in return and could end up, like Roy Halladay in 2009, being beyond the reach of interested clubs.

The other possibility is that their is a "once and future Ace" who is on the verge of having a Renaissance season. Candidates for that mantle would include Jake Peavy, James Shields, and Scott Kazmir. If they were to return to their former levels of production AND their current franchise fell out of the playoff picture by midseason, you could definitely see them being traded at a price which wasn't wholly insurmountable.

Finally, this gives me opportunity to tout one of the favorite sleeper candidates for 2011. Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros will be a free agent in 2012. Certainly, at this moment, nobody thinks of him as analogous to Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia, but just two years ago Wandy put up Ace numbers (14-12, 3.02 ERA, 206 IP, 193 K). His overall performance in 2010 was disappointing (11-12, 3.60 ERA), but don't make the mistake of overlooking his second half. From June 24th on, a stretch of 18 starts, Way-Rod went 8-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 126 K in 120 IP. One can imagine how much more press he would've gotten had he been pitching like that for a contender. The Astros are in rebuilding mode, and at 32, Wandy isn't exactly the kind of guy you build around. He'll be in motion by the deadline and if he begins 2011 in the fashion he ended 2012, there could be a bidding war.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rookies

2011-01-14T19:27:00.000-08:00

The following list anticipates actual production of rookies in standard 5X5 fantasy formats. This is not a "top prospects" list, which is why you won't see Bryce Harper or Mike Trout anywhere one it. Under consideration is not only talent, but also age, opportunity, franchise, ballpark, and positional eligibility.

1. Domonic Brown - RF - Philadelphia Phillies

Brown managed an OPS above 920 and a batting average above .300 at each of the three highest minor-league levels. He's a five-tool talent. He's got a decent eye and a low strikeout rate. Best of all, for fantasy owners, he'll open the season with a starting position, hitting amidst a thunderous lineup, in a power-friendly ballpark. If there is a 2011 version of Jason Heyward, he's it.

2. Jeremy Hellickson - SP - Tampa Bay Rays

One of the biggest upshots of the Matt Garza deal was that it made room in Tampa's rotation for Hellickson. He will be the most expensive rookie in most fantasy auctions because he had a very impressive and well-publicized debut in August of last year, when he won three consecutive starts while filling in for Jeff Niemann. Be forewarned, however, even premier starting pitching prospects like David Price and Tommy Hanson, have experienced growing pains in their first full seasons. Hellickson's maturation process is further complicated by the fact that he has to pitch in the loaded AL East. I like Hellickson as much as anybody, but I probably won't own him in many leagues this year, because the price is too high.

3. Brandon Allen - 1B - Arizona D-Backs

I don't know if he's technically a rookie, since he's gotten an extended cup of coffee in each of the last two seasons, but this will be Allen's first full year in the big leagues. Coming out of the D-Backs system, he's something of an under-the-radar talent, but he's got everything one looks for in a fantasy first-baseman: awesome power (.541 SLG @ AAA), very good eye (83 BB/95 K in 2010), and even a little bit of speed (14 SB in '10). His average probably won't be great (although he did hit .298 in '09), but Arizona's park certainly plays to his strengths and he's got to be the odds-on favorite to replace Mark Reynolds as Justin Upton's protection.

4. J. P. Arencibia - C - Toronto Blue Jays

While your fellow owners are scrambling for Jesus Montero, who could very well spend the entirety of 2011 at AAA, do yourself a favor and grab Arencibia instead. Montero is probably the better prospect long-term, but Arencibia had much better numbers at AAA last season (986 OPS, 32 HR, .301 AVG) and, most importantly, he'll open the season as the Blue Jays primary backstop. Arencibia's can hit homers (averaged 27 HR per season in the minors), and, as Jose Bautista & Co. proved in 2010, Toronto is a very good place to be a power-hitter.

5. Tsuyoshi Nishioka - 2B/SS - Minnesota Twins

It's extremely hard to predict how Japanese players will perform in the MLB. For every Ichiro, Dice-K, or Godzilla, there is a Kaz Matsui, Kosuke Fukudome, or Hideki Irabu. What we do know about Nishioka is that the Twins, by trading away J. J. Hardy and allowing Orlando Hudson to walk, have committed to playing him in their middle infield. There's also a fair chance he'll start the season hitting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. That's a favorable situation. In Japan, he showed good discipline, decent speed, and power...for his position. And that's the key. Middle infield talent doesn't come into the league very often, so it's worth grabbing a 26-year-old with significant upside, even if his overall numbers won't necessarily compare to some of the guys I rank below him.

6. Freddie Freeman - 1B - Atlanta Braves

Freeman probably doesn't have as much long-term upside as many of the prospects ranked below him, but what he does have in 2011 is a starting job, as the Braves elected not to pursue any free agent first-basemen. Freeman's '10 numbers at AAA - .319 AVG, 898 OPS, 18 HR, 87 RBI - justify that decision, but don't necessarily scream "Rookie of the Year." He plays a position with many preferable veteran options, so don't overpay, but 2010 Gaby Sanchez is probably a reasonable comparison. His big advantage, like Sanchez, is that he doesn't have the name recognition of Hellickson, Brown, or Jennings, so he'll probably still be available in the final rounds of your draft, at which point he's got a very commendable risk-to-reward ratio.

7. Desmond Jennings - LF - Tampa Bay Rays

Jennings has a hard act to follow, as he replaces arguably the best outfielder in all of baseball. He's also not completely absent of competition, as there a plenty of good young players trying to earn roster spots in Tampa. Don't be surprised if the Rays elect to give Jennings a couple more "Super Two" months in AAA. He didn't exactly light it up in 2010 (.278 AVG, 756 OPS). That said, I think Jennings has a great future and with a career .384 OBP and 84% success rate, he promises to be an excellent source of runs and steals as soon as he enters the league. Don't mistake him for a five-tool player, however. He's got great speed, a great batter's eye, and plays good defense, but as yet he hasn't developed much power (.415 SLG @ AAA) and has been prone to occasional slumps, especially when starting new levels.

8. Lorenzo Cain - CF - Kansas City Royals

With guys like Melky Cabrera and Mitch Maier hanging around, there's no guarantee Cain will be Kansas City's Opening Day centerfielder. However, it's a pretty safe bet he'll be holding down that position be midseason. Cain looked very good in a brief stint with the Brewers at the end of 2010 and was made one of the key pieces in the Zack Greinke deal. He's got the tools to be an excellent leadoff hitter (.317 AVG, .402 OBP, 9 3B, 26 SB in 84 games between AA and AAA in '10).

9. Mike Moustakas - 3B - Kansas City Royals

Like Cain, the only thing stopping Moustakas from breaking camp with the Royals is the "Super Two" rule. He'll be one of the first players promoted in June and will likely hit in the middle of the Royals order soon thereafter. He could very well be a Rookie of the Year candidate, even with the late start, just as Buster Posey was last year. Is he the next Ryan Braun? Maybe...but probably not.

10. Chris Sale - RP - Chicago White Sox

Sale sailed through the minors (that's the second time I've made that joke this week, tee hee). He'll be fighting for the closer role in Chicago during Spring Training. I think he gets it. High-upside rookie closers win fantasy leagues (see Feliz, Neftali).

11. Dayan Viciedo - 3B - Chicago White Sox

Nobody seemed to notice that 21-year-old Dayan Viciedo bashed 20 HR in half a season at AAA than joined the major-league club for about six weeks and hit .308 with an 840 OPS. Like his close friend, Alexei Ramirez, Viciedo is going to struggle with his plate discipline (.313 OBP in the minors), but he's a power stud at a very young age, and at this moment looks like the probable starter at third base in Chicago (he'll have competition from another rookie, Brent Morel). I don't imagine he'll contend for Rookie of the Year, but he could play well enough to stick in the majors. Third base is currently one of the shallowest positions in fantasy baseball, so you could do worse than snagging a kid who'll get you 20+ HR at the very end of your deep-league draft.

12. Dustin Ackley - 2B - Seattle Mariners

At this point, it appears the Mariners are heading into 2011 expecting the #2 pick in the '09 draft to be their Opening Day second-baseman. There is nothing about his 2010 campaign that suggests he will be a productive player immediately. He showed no power (7 HR, .410 SLG), only moderate speed (10 SB), and hit a modest .267. He did show excellent discipline (75 BB/79 K, .368 OBP) which bodes well for his long-term prospects, but with Seattle's poorly offense and tough ballpark, I just can't see Ackley having a stellar rookie campaign. That said, as I pointed out earlier, high-upside middle-infielders are a rare breed indeed, so Ackley should be owned in keeper leagues and deep leagues, and everybody should pay careful attention to how he does this spring.

13. Leslie Anderson - 1B - Tampa Bay Rays

As a 28-year-old Cuban defector, Anderson has snuck in under-the-radar of most prospect analysts. Sure, he's old for a rookie, but that's not exactly his fault. He moved quickly through the Rays system in 2010, accumulating solid numbers at each level. He doesn't have prototypical first-base power, but he'll hit for a high average. Most importantly, at this point it looks like he has the inside track to replace Carlos Pena. The Rays will probably bill it as an open competition between him and Dan Johnson this spring, but after failing to top the Mendoza line when the Rays handed him a starting job at the end of last season, Johnson's got to be running out of chances.

14. Craig Kimbrel - RP - Atlanta Braves

I think Jonny Venters will get the first crack at the closer's job in Atlanta, but many people think it will go to Kimbrel and there's no denying he's got the talent for it. In deep leagues, even if he isn't pitching in the ninth, he'll be well worth owning just for his ability to rack up strikeouts at an alarming rate and make solid contributions to your ERA and WHIP.

15. Mike Minor - SP - Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the place to go for rookie strikeout artists. Mike Minor will probably struggle a bit with his control, but he's got an outstanding strikeout rate for a starting pitcher (10.9 K/9 in 2010). Right now he's the odds-on favorite to slot in the back of Atlanta's strong rotation. He got some experience down the stretch last year, so the majors won't be a total shock. Could be a decent sleeper candidate for NL Rookie of the Year.

16. Jenrry Mejia - SP - New York Mets

Mejia looked pretty good as a reliever early in 2010, so the Mets sent him back to the minors to convert him into a starter. The 21-year-old responded by posting a 1.28 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with 45 K in 42 innings across three different levels. He'll be back in New York to begin 2011, slotted into the back end of the Mets rotation. It's a notoriously good place to pitch, so even if there are some growing pains, Mejia could end up with solid fantasy numbers.

17. Mark Rogers - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

The #5 pick in the '04 draft, Rogers moved slower through the system than the Brewers might have liked, due to a surgery that cost him more than two full seasons. But in the last two years, Rogers has made significant strides. He'll enter the spring with an opportunity to battle Manny Parra and Chris Narveson for the last spot in the rotation. The Brewers are "going for it" in 2011, so service time consideration should be ignored if Rogers proves himself ready to contribute to that goal.

18. Jake McGee - SP - Tampa Bay Rays

He may have to wait until midseason, but at some point this year McGee will get his opportunity to contribute at the major league level, either as a starter or possibly as the Rays closer. Watch carefully how he performs in Spring Training. He's a sleeper candidate to start the year at the back of the bullpen.

19. Aroldis Chapman - RP - Cincinnati Reds

I'd like to rank him much, much higher, because there's no denying his talent warrants it, but with a dearth of solid starting pitching on the Reds and a top-flight closer in their bullpen, there's little reason to predict Chapman will evolve beyond his set-up man role in 2011. Even so, I'd expect he'll scavenge his share of wins and saves, as well as pile up a whole bunch of strikeouts, so you could do a lot worse in this rookie crop.

20. Jesus Montero - C - New York Yankees

Unfortunately, Montero's fantasy impact is entirely dictated by the fate's of Russell Martin and Jorge Posada. If the veterans stay healthy and play even moderately well, Montero will probably linger in the minors for another season. However, if he does get an opportunity, there's a strong chance he'll hit the ground running and catchers with his kind of impact bat are, as Buster Posey proved this past year, game-changers, both for their real and their fantasy franchises.

21. Kyle Drabek - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

When the Jays tell you that Drabek is in competition to make the rotation straight out of Spring Training, don't listen to them. Drabek's ETA is June 15th, at best, because there is no reason for the Jays to start his service clock any earlier than that. They've got a stable of other interesting starting pitchers and they will want to get the most they possibly can out of the major fruit of the Doc Halladay trade. Drabek did do everything he was supposed to in 2010. He pitched lights out at AA (14-9, 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). He'll be in Toronto soon enough, but the AL East can be cruel to rookie pitchers, no matter how talented they are.

22. Martin Perez - SP - Texas Rangers

Perez is probably the most anticipated pitching prospect in baseball. However, like Montero, he is not assured a spot on the major-league roster in 2011. Even without Cliff Lee, the Rangers have a nice stable of arms, many of whom are much further along in the development process than Perez, who is just 19-years-old and didn't exactly light up AA (5.96 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). There's still a strong likelihood he'll be in Arlington by October, but the Rangers have a history of introducing their young arms as relievers (Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Kirkman, etc.), so Perez's immediate future could be in middle relief, where he has little fantasy value.

23. Tim Collins - RP - Kansas City Royals

Collins is definitely the best thing to come out of the Rick Ankiel experiment for Kansas City. He won't make many lists of the top 25 prospects in the country, because he's a reliever, but maybe he should. His minor-league stats are a little obscene. Last season, between AA and AAA, he struck out 108 batters in 71 innings. His overall ERA was 2.02. A 21-year-old who already has 223 innings of professional relief under his belt, he's got a career 2.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9. Collins won't start the season in Kansas City, but I bet he ends it as the Royals closer. The Zack Greinke trade confirmed that Kansas City has committed to at least two and probably three more years of rebuilding. One would presume that means Joakim Soria will be available at the trade deadline, if not before, as K.C. attempts to further its stockpile of prospects. Collins is Soria's heir apparent and could be good for double-digit saves given a couple months in the role.

24. Michael Pineda - SP - Seattle Mariners

After a very busy offseason in 2010, the Mariners have been more or less silent in 2011. Unless they make a flurry of moves between now and Opening Day, it seems likely that Pineda, like Dustin Ackley, will make the major-league roster, probably even the rotation. I'm not sure he's "ready," given his 4.76 ERA in a dozen starts at AAA, but opportunity is as important to fantasy relevance as talent. His ballpark works to his advantage, as does his division, so Pineda could manage respectable stats even as a work in progress.

25. Yunesky Maya - SP - Washington Nationals

The Cuban defector's numbers were not great in five starts at the tail end of last year, but Maya's got the inside track to be in the Nats rotation and there's no denying he's got stuff.

Other Rookies/Prospects Worth Following:

Yonder Alonso - 1B - Cincinnati Reds
Chris Carter - 1B - Oakland Athletics
Brandon Belt - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants
Fernando Martinez - OF - New York Mets
Jason Kipnis - 2B - Cleveland Indians

Fantastic Thoughts: Rafael Soriano The Latest Premier Reliever To Settle For "Holds"

2011-01-14T15:35:00.000-08:00

Rafael Soriano disappointed his fantasy owners yesterday when he signed the largest set-up man contract in the history of the game. If you owned Soriano last year, you probably got him for a song and he proceeded to be the most productive closer in the game. In many keeper leagues it would be possible to redouble that value in 2011...if Soriano had signed on to be somebody's closer. Soriano chose instead to be Mariano Rivera's opening act. There's nothing wrong with that. He'll get to pitch for a competitive team. He'll be in line, potentially, to be Mo's replacement (if he ever retires). And, in the interim, he'll be content to take home around $12 Million a year. Not too shabby.

In most fantasy formats, however, Soriano is now all but irrelevant, joining a cast which includes Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps: all established closers who will spend 2011 as set-up men. From a baseball perspective, this is a very encouraging trend. More and more GMs have realized that it's just as rational (if not more rational) to pay for a dominant reliever who pitches whenever the game is on the line in the 7th and 8th, as it is to pay seven figures to a guy who only takes the ball in save situations. From a fantasy perspective, this sucks.

There were already few enough guys who were consistent candidates for 30+ saves. Now several of them are chasing "holds" instead. When the 2011 season begins, at least a third of the 30 MLB teams will be featuring a pitcher for whom this is their first Opening Day with the closer label. Several may elect to go with that infamous strategy which is fantasy kryptonite: closer-by-committee.

Some will be apt to tell you that this widespread uncertainty is reason to invest heavily in one of the few truly established closing options, guys like Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Jose Valverde. I disagree. I hate paying for saves. With so many bullpens in flux, more cheap saves are coming into the league than ever before. Besides Soriano (48 SV), here are some guys you could've had for next to nothing in 2010:

Matt Capps (42 SV), Kevin Gregg (37 SV), Leo Nunez (30 SV), John Axford (24 SV), Matt Lindstrom (23 SV), Chris Perez (23 SV), Octavio Dotel (22 SV), Jon Rauch (21 SV), Brandon Lyon (20 SV), Alfredo Simon (17 SV), Juan Gutierrez (15 SV), Fernando Rodney (14 SV), Koji Uehara (13 SV), Hong-Chih Kuo (12 SV), Manny Corpas (10 SV)

Just counting guys who went either undrafted or in the very final rounds of standard drafts, that's fifteen players with double-digit saves. I'd be willing to bet there will be even more in 2011. Let's take a look at the few of the franchises with the most uncertainty and discuss some of the candidates for closing duties.

Tampa Bay Rays:

The Rays have probably the best bullpen in baseball last season. However, this offseason, they lost their four best releivers: Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler. They also lost a couple innings-eaters in Randy Choate and Chad Qualls. The additions Tampa Bay has made - Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta - are not exactly guys who've had late-inning success, so the new closer is almost certainly coming from within the organization.

J. P. Howell will get a crack at it, if he's healthy. Howell was very good during a limited tenure as Tampa Bay's closer during the second half of 2009 (16 SV, 3.02 ERA). However, he missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury. He may not be ready to pitch again at all until May or June, and even then nobody can predict how his surgically-repaired rotator cuff will respond.

The Padres converted Mike Ekstrom into a reliever during the 2008 season. In two full seasons at AAA, Ekstrom posted a 2.24 ERA. Promoted in the final month of 2010, Ekstrom looked fine doing mop-up work for the Rays (3.31 ERA in 16 IP). However, Ekstrom has never been a closer at any level and doesn't have prototypical closer stuff (6.8 K/9 at AAA).

With Joe Maddon, anything is possible. Maddon is notorious for going against the conventional wisdom, especially in his bullpen management. In the past, for brief periods, he featured top-flight starters like David Price and Matt Garza at closer. Maddon could consider rehashing that trick with Jake McGee. McGee is one of the Rays top pitching prospects and, after a solid run at AA in 2010, he's probably not far from being major-league ready. However, there's currently no room in the rotation. The Rays gave McGee a quick audition in relief at the end of last year. He posted a 0.52 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 innings at AAA and a 1.80 ERA with 6 K in five innings in the bigs. Obviously, that's an extremely small sample, but he's got the kind of power stuff (10.4 K/9 in his professional career) that one likes to see in a closer.

Finally, don't sleep on Matt Gorgen. Gorgen was the closer of the Montgomery Biscuits (AA) last year, piling up 22 saves and a 1.65 ERA in 45 innings. If Gorgen can continue to build momentum at AAA and the closer carousel doesn't go well in the early months of the season, Maddon could be very interested in a guy who has spend his entire pro career closing games, has a solid minor-league track record, and a power arm (10.1 K/9 in minors).

Atlanta Braves:

Some, including myself, aren't fully convinced that Billy Wagner is really retiring, just two saves away from becoming all-time leader for left-handed relievers and fourth overall, behind just Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith.

If Wagner really doesn't come back for a 16th season, the Braves may be forced to turn to one of their other flame-throwing southpaws, either Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty. Both Venters and O'Flaherty were excellent last seasons. Venters (1.95 ERA, 93 K, 83 IP) even garnered a little Rookie of the Year consideration, which is a hard thing to do as a middle reliever. Both will be 26-years-old in 2011. O'Flaherty has more experience, but Venters would probably get the first crack at the job.

The closer of the future in Atlanta is Craig Kimbrel. Many are assuming that future is now. Kimbrel throws fire (14.4 K/9 in minors). He moved quickly through the minors as a closer and posted solid numbers in his late-season audition (0.44 ERA, 40 K, 21 IP). Fredi Gonzalez may indeed be comfortable handing him the job straightaway. However, I expect Atlanta will be a little cautious following Kimbrel's NLDS. When Wagner was sidelined, they asked Kimbrel to take over the ninth and in a critical Game 3 appearance he got a little ruffled and ended up taking the loss. Bobby Cox was alwasy reluctant to use young pitchers in the 9th. Don't be surprised if Gonzalez follows that pattern as well.

With that in mind, one probably shouldn't ignore the presence of George Sherrill. Sherrill quietly joined the Braves bullpen this offseason. He is the only pitcher in Atlanta with substantial closing experience (52 SV between '08 and '09). He had a tough year in L.A. in 2010, but he's one of those unflappable reliever that managers generally love to use in the 9th.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Most are assuming that 37-year-old Octavio Dotel has been signed to be the Blue Jays closer. I, personally, think that's an unwise assumption. Dotel hasn't spent a full season closing games since 2004. His last temporary stint as a closer (during the first half of 2010 with Pittsburgh) was sufficiently underwhelming (4.28 ERA).

The Jays have other options. Their best reliever from last season was Shawn Camp (2.99 ERA in 72 IP). Camp's numbers have gotten substantially better every years since 2007. He may be due for a shot.

Jason Frasor, who began the season as Toronto's closer, after posting great numbers in 2009, should also be on your radar. Frasor lost the job to Kevin Gregg after blowing two of his first five opportunities, but he really found his rhythm again in the second half. He had a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP after the All-Star Break.

Also, watch for Alan Farina, who the Jays recently added to their 40-man roster. Farina, drafted in '07, could move quickly in '11. He compiled a 1.29 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9 between two levels in 2010.

Chicago White Sox:

Bobby Jenks will be pitching for a different color of Sox in 2011, for the first time in his career, so, for the first time since 2005, the ChiSox are auditioning closers.

The Vegas money would probably be on Matt Thornton, who, in three seasons as Jenks primary set-up man, posted a 2.70 ERA and 245 K in 200 IP. The only thing working against Thornton is the fact that he's far more valuable doing exactly what he's been doing for the last three years. His rubber arm, his ability shut down the league's top lefties, and work out of james with inherited runners are all talents that would be slightly compromised by reserving him exclusively for save situations.

Instead, the Sox could hand the job over to Chris Sale, their 2010 draft pick who went almost directly to the major leagues. After being drafted in June, Sale sailed through the minors and still managed to get 21 appearances in Chicago, where he posted a 1.93 ERA with 32 K. Ozzie Guillen handed Jenks the closer job when he was just a rookie, so don't assume he'll be hesitant to put that pressure on Sale.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher

2011-01-12T13:19:00.000-08:00

It's almost upon us. The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week. In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason. There are still a few outstanding free agents. Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs. Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons. Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts. If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues. For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes. Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:

Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.

Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins

Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.

Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals

Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.

Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.

Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs

I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.

Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres

It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.

J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.

Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:

Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals

Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010. He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward. Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland. Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels. Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation. All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.

Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies

Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.

Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.

Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox

From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.

Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.

Much Ado About Nothing? (The Juiced Hall Era)

2011-01-08T13:19:00.000-08:00

Almost exactly a year ago I posted my concerns about the increasing irrelevance of the Hall of Fame. I didn't expect there would be much to add this time around. As predicted, Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven did gain entry on the 2011 ballot, and no accused, confessed, or even merely suspected steroids users got even as high as 50% (with 75% needed for admission). Several players who I, personally, think very relevant to the history of the sport - especially Dave Parker, Harold Baines, Kevin Brown, and John Franco - got little enough support that they will be dropped from all future ballots, until they are eligible for consideration by the Veterans Committee.

As I stated last year, I am in favor of inclusivity to the highest degree, because I believe that the Hall of Fame is only interesting as a museum of baseball history (it serves this purpose less and less every year). I think arguments about "diluting" the player pool are frankly silly and condescending, and voting based on issues of ethics and morality utterly ridiculous. There isn't a single member of the BBWAA that who I'd trust within a hundred yards of a podium or pulpit. That some of them actually literally think of themselves as "morality police" is beyond laughable. That they think moral policing is synonymous with acting as "custodians of the game's history" is evidence of actual psychotic delusion. I would urge all who believe that the narrative of history should be tailored to a specific ideology to take a long look at the definition of propaganda, as well as the careers of Goebbels, Stalin, Joe McCarthy, and David Duke.

The selection process reached a whole new level of absurdity this year. Foremost and most frighteningly there was the outrageous treatment of Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell is something of a borderline candidate, based upon the strange numbers game that has historically dictated entry, and bordrline candidates generally don't get in during their first few years on the ballot. So, Bagwell, who with 41.7% of the vote had the best performance of any player gaining eligibility in 2011, shouldn't despair. However, that several righteous pundits took this opportunity to smear him with the scarlet S, despite the fact that he never showed up in A.) The Mitchell Report, B.) The BALCO Investigation, or C.) Conseco's sordid memoirs, is simply ugly. I certainly don't believe that the sources listed above are utterly reliable (and U.S. law has thusfar agreed with me), but for Bagwell to have his candidacy jeopardized by merely circumstantial evidence (and that's a relatively kind description of Jeff Pearlman's justification) is the very heart of slander. Shame. Shame. Shame.

Revelations which followed the BBWAA's announcement of the voting results compounded the absurdity. Most glaring was one member's ballot which consisted of votes for Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, and (I kid you not) B. J. Surhoff. With the exception of Surhoff, I actually don't oppose the induction of any of these guys, but the fact that one can vote for up to ten players and this guy chose to leave off his ballot Tim Raines, Barry Larkin, Bagwell, Blyleven, and Alomar is obviously indefensible. One can really only read this ballot as a satirical statement about the selection process itself.

There has been an abundance of commentary in the last few days, much of which is mere retread of disputes which have raged since Mark McGwire became the first presumed PED abuser to gain HOF eligibility. The most interesting and original addition to this conversation comes from Rob Neyer, who, like his mentor, Bill James, actually cares a great deal about the Hall's existence, its standards, and the induction process. I think he's probably wasting his energy, but I admire his resolve. What Neyer observes is that the morality police contingent are actually endangering the tradition they have so pedantically sworn to uphold. And, they are threatening the continued viability of the HOF as an economic institution.

Neyer points to the very real possibility, first off, that in the very near future there will be years in which way more than ten candidates who seriously deserve HOF consideration, may even be "sure things" in many voters minds, will be on the ballot all at once. Such a glut of options could lead to many more instances of really good, even HOF worthy players falling off the ballot after gaining less than 5% of the vote. It could also, as Neyer warns, result in years in which nobody gets 75% of the vote and therefore nobody comes to the midsummer induction ceremony which is actually what keeps Cooperstown economically viable.

Believe me, unless the people running the Hall of Fame are as "infantile, ahistorical, and asinine" as Neyer accuses many of the members of the BBWAA of being, he is not the only one worried by this potential. The induction ceremonies bring tourist dollars to the institution and the surrounding community at a rate unequaled throughout the rest of the year. However, the long-term sustainability of the Hall is also being jeopardized by the "morality police," even if we never end up with a year in which there are no inductions. A contingent of indignant, short-sighted, and, frankly, bigoted baseball writers are blackballing a generation of baseball players and, therefore, a generation of baseball fans. Think about it. If you, like me, became a fan during the 1990s, what cause do you have to take your sons and daughters to an institution that minimizes (or, in some cases, even denies) the relevance of many of the most memorable players of your youth.

It isn't as though Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez, et al are going to be forgotten by baseball history. The Hall of Fame will stop being the custodian of that history long before that happens. Which could be a great thing! After all, Cooperstown is in the middle of nowhere, inaccessible even by major freeways, and, frankly, the selection process has been flawed from the start. Maybe this is MLB's opportunity to start fresh with a serious baseball history museum in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh or Atlanta.

More likely, however, the BBWAA are writing their own death warrant. They have been the middle man in this process all along. What they are doing right now is kind of like SYSCO refusing to bring Coke products to McDonald's. When the smoke clears, McDonald's isn't going to stop selling Coke products. They're going to find another distributor. And the BBWAA, by compounding stubbornness with ineptitude and increasing irrelevance on all fronts, isn't exactly urging MLB and the Hall of Fame to keep them in the loop. If I'm a curator in Cooperstown, I'm enraged by the fact that somebody with power over my institution has suggested that B. J. Surhoff is more important to baseball history than Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa. I'm foreseeing the possibility of a Hall of Fame which does not include baseball's all-time hits leader, the all-time home run leaders, etc., etc. And is also, thanks to the apparent political biases of the Veterans Committe, without Marvin Miller, Curt Flood, and several other icons who help to establish the relevance of baseball to American history at large.

Let's face it, we are on the verge of a situation which pits the BBWAA against MLB, the MLBPA, New York State, and the museum itself. One of these things is not like the others.

Good riddance.

Matt Garza is Not Your Savior, Cubs Fans. Sorry.

2011-01-05T10:11:00.000-08:00

The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays. Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib thinks this is a move that makes the Cubs serious contenders again in the NL Central. I caution all Cubs fans against such enthusiasm.

Here's the good news. Garza is a pitcher in his prime. He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players. Garza is a premium talent. He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches. In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP. He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons. He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007. Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental. And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central. That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board. Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.

It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty. A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage. And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come. However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011. Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke. And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.

Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story. From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA. Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September. Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League. More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss. My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace. That could be true. Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern. His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9). He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12). According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average). There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.

Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term. In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza. He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.

More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation. Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average. Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall. Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood. Is that really a solution? Maybe, maybe not. On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage. Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings. In fact, it probably exacerbates them.

Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09. Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward. Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth. The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman. The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.

I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.

UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels. MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.

The Face of Deja Vu

2011-01-04T12:15:00.000-08:00

ESPN, among others, is reporting that the Rangers are close to signing a $90 Million deal with third baseman, Adrian Beltre. On one level, this makes plenty of sense. Beltre was an MVP candidate for the Red Sox last season. He is a substantial defensive upgrade over Michael Young and an offensive upgrade over Vladimir Guerrero, and he's younger than either of them. Nevertheless, I can't help feeling like we've been here before, and the ensuing results were mighty unkind.

In the winter of 2005, Beltre was a 25-year-old coming off a season in which he finished second in the MVP balloting (behind Barry Bonds), led the league in homers (48), and led all of baseball in Ultimate Zone Rating (24.8). It was the kind of season the Dodgers had been anticipating since they promoted him to the majors at the tender age of 19. Unfortunately, six years later, it remains the zenith of his career.

In an understandably intense bidding war, the Dodgers (and the rest of the league) lost out to the Seattle Mariners, who signed the young Beltre to a five-year, $61 Million contract, at that time the largest annual salary ever awarded to a third baseman. To put it mildly, things did not work out. It took Beltre four full seasons to achieve as many Wins Above Replacement as he had in 2004 alone (10.1). He never got within 20 HR of his '04 totals or within 200 points of his '04 OPS. During his tenure in Seattle, from '05 to '09, he ranked just 7th among major-league third baseman in WAR (13.8), his performance bettered or equaled by much cheaper players like Brandon Inge (14.4), Troy Glaus (13.3), and Mike Lowell (13.3). Moreover, most of Beltre's value came from his continually superior defense and he did little to aid the Mariners in the way they had expected, as an anchor in their otherwise power-starved lineup. Rumors swirled around him. He was, of course, suspected of using PEDs, based solely on the extent to which his '04 season now seemed like a massive outlier. He was accused of being surly, of being out of shape, of playing disinterestedly following his big payday.

The extent to which Beltre disappointed everybody's expectations and was almost universally maligned allowed Theo Epstein to swoop in last offseason and make one of the finest value signing of his impressive career. Though Beltre was nothing like the player he had been in '04, he still had a more than serviceable track record and Epstein's one-year, $10 Million offer represented an absolute high-jacking. This would have been the case even if Beltre had merely maintained the numbers he averaged during his five years in Seattle. Instead, freed from the pressure of being a franchise lynchpin and playing in the unfriendly confines of Safeco Field, Beltre turned in his best performance since '04...by a long shot. He finished second in the AL in WAR (7.1), led the Red Sox in nearly every offensive category, and was, as usual, among the best defenders at his position.

Texas is, clearly, banking on the fact that the 2004 and 2010 version of Adrian Beltre are the real ones, that threaded into their already potent lineup, playing in their power-friendly ballpark, and inspired by the potential to contend for several years to come, Beltre will continue to show both superior talent and motivation. This is, of course, a dangerous assumption. This will represent the second time Beltre has turned one really good season into half a decade or more of really big paychecks. By the time this contract is finished, Beltre will have been paid more over the course of his career than substantially superior players (at least in terms of average annual production to this point) like Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, and Aramis Ramirez. Even David Wright, whose WAR since 2005 is 50% higher than Beltre's (29.7 v. 19.9) may have a hard time equally Beltre's total earning power over the course of his career.

Although I want Jon Daniels instincts to be correct, and I can certainly imagine a scenario in which Beltre earns every cent of this contract, I can't help worrying that the Rangers panicked a bit when they failed to land Cliff Lee and threw more money at a Scott Boras client than was truly necessary (doesn't this happen every year). Beltre will be 32-years-old when the '11 season begins. Even if his 2010 production was not an anomaly, can we expect him to produce at that level for more than two or three years to come? The incredible quickness and dexterity which is the key to his success as both a hitter and fielder will begin to fade by the time he reaches his mid-thirties. Chipper Jones numbers fell off the table after he turned 36. Rolen, Glaus, Derrek Lee, and Ron Santo (all players with notable similarities to Beltre) began to rapidly decline well before that. Beltre's contract will pay him through at least his 37th birthday.

Jon Daniel one ace in the hole, however, is that, unlike all the players mentioned above, Beltre has almost zero injury history. He's made 600+ plate appearances in eight of the last nine seasons. Last year, he came out of a pair of rather gruesome collisions completely unfazed (the same could not be said of Jacoby Ellsbury, unfortunately). If Beltre stays on the field, keeps most of his defensive chops, and is able to produce at least on the level he did in Seattle through the next four or five seasons, the Rangers won't live to regret this signing all that much. If...

The Payoff (2011 Milwaukee Brewers)

2011-01-02T22:03:00.000-08:00

A couples weeks back, Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, stunned the mainstream sportswriting world by landing the top pitcher in this year's trade market, Zack Greinke (I can't help but point out that I predicted this move a month ago, because it just made so much sense). The Greinke acquisition, combined with an underrated trade for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, represents what Melvin hopes will be among the crowning moves of a Championship strategy eight years in the making.

When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history. That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot). The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending. Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.

Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05. Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons. Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender. Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.

At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience. Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years. Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self. He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll. Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05. He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto. Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.

While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come. In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card. It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.

The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies. Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch. Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.

In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar. While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond. Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency. What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it. Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit. With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match. Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.

Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew. Foremost, their division. In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup. There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011. The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter. To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise. The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins. Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable. Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East). The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.

What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength. The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson. However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons. The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock. We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.

More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure. The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005. I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system. 40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt. Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera. Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base. This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010. He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months. As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7. That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.

Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee. 25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate. He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed. The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason. Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.

Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher. Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628. Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge. If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.

On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order. If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing. As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend. At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are. Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline. I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.

Fonz Redux

2010-12-22T17:21:00.000-08:00

It's been a busy month, but during a pre-holiday lull I wanted to offer a couple of opinions about the flurry of deals from the concluding week of 2010. First up, the top two free agent hitters from this year's class, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, both signed seven-year, nine-figure deals earlier in December. These were the two largest contracts handed to outfielders since Alfonso Soriano signed his $136 Million deal with the Cubs prior to the 2007 season. That deal already looks like one of the worst albatrosses in baseball history, as Soriano's production has declined dramatically over the last four years.

There are some unfortunate correlations between Soriano and this years duo of high-priced outfielders. For starters, both Crawford and Werth have made their reputations, at least to some extent, based upon their speed. The same was true of Soriano. When he signed his megadeal, he was coming off a 40/40 season. Werth has posted a pair of 20/20 seasons and in the last three years has a rather incredible 88% stolen base success rate since becoming a Phillie. Crawford, considered one of the speediest men in all of baseball, has led the league in steals on four occasions, and has averaged 50 steals per season since 2003. Though both are corner outfielders by preference, their speed also makes it possible for them to slide over to center when necessary and helps to make them Gold Glove candidates at their natural positions. The problem with paying high premiums for speed is that too often it is the first of the five tools to dissipate. Take Soriano, for instance. After averaging 35 steals a year in his first six seasons, Soriano has managed only 13 per year in his four seasons with the Cubs, largely due to nagging hamstring injuries. He became an absolute drain as Chicago's leadoff hitter and was finally moved down in the order last season.

Injuries have effected Soriano's game on the whole, of course. In his first six seasons, Soriano never played in fewer than 145 games. Since coming to Chicago, however, he's reached that mark only once. Werth and Crawford have also been relative iron men. Werth has missed only nine games in the past two seasons; Crawford only fourteen. Will they be able to maintain that pace, especially as they move into their 30s?

This brings us to the biggest and most obvious problem with deals like these: aging. Werth with be 32 during the 2011 season. The Nationals will be on the hook for $84 Million after he turns 35. In order to "earn" that money, Werth will probably need to manage at least four or five Wins Above Replacement per season. The list of outfielders who have managed to do that in their late thirties is extraordinarily short: Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki. Can Jayson Werth aspire to that class?

In this respect, Crawford's deal makes a lot more sense. He will earn more money than Werth over the next seven years, but his contract expires only a few months after his 35th birthday. Theo Epstein will take his fair share of flack in the coming years, as Boston's payroll escalates into pinstriped territory. But Epstein, thusfar at least, has not been spending much of his money on players in decline (John Lackey aside). For exactly that reason he passed on expensive long-term deals on Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, even though they were extremely productive in their limited runs with the BoSox, and turned his attentions instead to Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

While it's highly likely that Carl Crawford's best seasons are still in front of him, thus justifying his $20 Million per year salary, the same can not be said of Jayson Werth. Werth's career arch is very worrisome and not just because of his advanced age. Due in part to some unfortunate injuries and perhaps in part to some poor personnel decisions made by his first two franchises (the Dodgers and Jays), Werth did not become an everyday player until he joined the Phillies in 2007. Even then he was limited to platoon at-bats for some time. As a result, unlike Crawford, he doesn't have a long track record of sustained brilliance, which make me very uneasy. Really, only in the last three seasons has he been a productive everyday player.

Many, many players have produced like Werth has over a three-year period only to fall into rapid decline. Here's just a few outfielders from recent memory: Brad Hawpe, Ray Lankford, Andy Van Slyke, Brian Jordan, Cliff Floyd, and, of course, Alfonso Soriano. Like most of these players, Werth has benefitted during his prime years from hitting in the midst of a very potent lineup and in a very friendly confines. Never before has he been asked to carry a load on offense like the one he'll be expected to carry in Washington, where Ryan Zimmerman is the only other All-Star quality player in the lineup.

One thing I will say for Werth. Unlike Soriano, he has excellent command of the strikezone. He draws walks and is consistently among the league leaders in pitches per plate appearance. This skill, unlike speed and power, is one that traditionally ages fairly well. That aside, however, I fear Werth will be an albatross around the neck of the Nationals, a franchise that can ill afford to miss on a their nine-figure investments.

Crawford, on the other hand, though he is far more of a free-swinger, could be the first Hundred Million Dollar Outfielder since Manny Ramirez ('01-'08 edition) to earn every cent of his contract. Even if his speed declines (which it almost certainly will, at least to some extent), his all-field approach, high averages, and stellar defense in left field should be enough to make him a productive top of the order hitter even in the waning years, and he's likely an MVP candidate for at least two or three seasons to come.

GM Hot Seat: Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers

2010-12-03T13:08:00.000-08:00

Clearly, Colletti's job is safe, so long as McCourt Divorcegate continues, which will likely be deep into the 2011 season, if not beyond. But, at some point down the line, either Frank, Jamie, or a new owner is going to be looking to put this extremely unfortunate chapter in the Dodgers history in the rearview mirror and, at that point, everybody in the current administration will be put under the microscope.

Sure, Colletti's got a few things to hang his hat on. The Dodgers have been to the playoffs three times in his five years as GM, and advanced all the way to the NLCS on two of those occasions. He masterminded the acquisition of Manny Ramirez, which was wildly successful...until it wasn't, but he hardly could've foreseen Manny's suspension and rapid decline. He brought in Joe Torre, who was the most popular Dodger manager since Tommy Lasorda. And, he's proved himself an aggressive wheeler and dealer, trading for helpful players like Casey Blake, Ron Belliard, Jim Thome, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, etc. at times when they were needed to fill key roles and he never gave up a whole lot in return.

Of course, underlying the solid track record of success on the field is the open secret among the Dodger faithful; most of the talent responsible for the deep runs in 2008 and 2009 came from the tenures of Coletti's predecessors, Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jonathan Broxton were all drafted (or signed) prior to Colletti's arrival in 2006. It's probably too early to fairly evaluate Colletti's drafting and development record, but his only pick to pan out thusfar is Clayton Kershaw.

As for Colletti's record in free agency, that's very easy to address, and the results aren't good. He's got four major busts - Manny, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones - who together cost the organization well over $150 Million. And, while Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda, and Rafael Furcal have all earned their money, they haven't exactly been bargains.

Colletti isn't going to survive close scrutiny by the "new" administration, whomever that is, unless he can demonstrate that 2010 was just a blip on the radar. He needs to get competitive again, right away. The flurry of activity in Los Angeles early in the Hot Stove season suggests Colletti's well aware of that fact. It took him less than a month to shore up his 2011 rotation behind young power arms Billingsley and Kershaw.

First, he resigned midseason acquisition Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33 Million deal that will take the junkballing control specialist into his late 30s. Lilly's prolonged durability (he's averaged 30 starts a season over the last eight years) and his soft-tossing style suggest he can continue to have success at that late age, much like Jamie Moyer has, so the length of the deal is defensible. In fact, considering how thin the pitching ranks are this winter, there's a strong likelihood Lilly could've gotten more had he tested the market.

Same goes for Hiroki Kuroda, who Colletti resigned for one year at $12 Million. Kuroda, coming of a season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, probably would've been viewed as the second or third best starter available, behind Cliff Lee, and certainly could've gotten a multiyear deal. However, Kuroda is comfortably in L.A. and seems to want to leave himself the option of returning to Japan in 2012, so he gave Colletti a hometown discount.

Finally, this past week Colletti finished an inexpensive deal for Jon Garland, coming off one of the best years of his career. Again, it seems likely Garland could've gotten more money or more years had he waited for the pitching market to develop, but he wanted to stay near his home in SoCal, so he took a $5 Million deal with an $8 Million option. The option kicks in automatically if Garland reaches 190 innings. Dodgers fans should be warned, he's reached that target every season since 2002, so this should be presumed to be a two-year, $13 Million deal.

All things considered, assuming Billingsley and Kershaw continue to progress towards being tandem Aces, this is a solid corps of starters. Garland and Lilly can definitely be termed "innings-eaters," as they've proved themselves extremely durable, which should help the Dodger bullpen, which has had a heavy workload the last couple seasons.

Colletti followed his rotational renovations with a somewhat controversial contract offer to veteran utilityman, Juan Uribe, who is coming off a resurgent tenure with the Dodgers archrival. Uribe helped the Giants by playing solid defense at several infield positions and providing some power as well, but he's definitely a risky investment at three years, $21 Million, which more than doubles what he was making in 2010. Uribe will probably start as the Dodgers everyday second-baseman, but could move to short or third in 2012, after Blake and Furcal are scheduled to become free agents. Uribe has a little thunder in his bat. He's a good bet for around 20 HR. But his career .300 OBP could make him a bit of a liability, especially in a lineup that is already short on patient hitters.

Most recently, Colletti elected to non-tender longtime catcher, Russell Martin, and middle reliever, George Sherrill, rather than offer them arbitration that could've cost as much as $15 Million. He replaced Sherrill with Blake Hawksworth, acquired in a trade with the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot. And, rumor has it, will soon replace Martin with Rod Barajas, probably for something like $2 Million in 2011. While Martin certainly has the talent to make the Dodgers regret this move, in the short-term it gives Colletti some flexibility. Even after the signing outlined above and potentially expensive arbitration hearings with Billingsley, Loney, and Kuo, the Dodgers should still be $3-5 Million under their payroll from 2010.

As noted above, I believe Colletti is feeling the pressure to win in 2011, but, considering the Dodgers current investments (including around $20 Million still due to Ramirez, Jones, and Pierre next year) and the McCourt "situation" there is little chance they can get into the bidding on Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or even Paul Konerko. This leaves Colletti with a difficult decision. The 2010 roster that finished in fourth place in the NL West was not that different from the one that went to the NLCS in each of the previous seasons. Unfortunately, much of the young talent regressed substantially last year, especially Kemp, Loney, and Broxton. One could very easily speculate that they will return to form in 2011, which could be enough to get the Dodgers right back in the thick of it. However, it also could be that Ethier, Kemp, and Loney are not ready to carry the offense by themselves and need a veteran slugger (like Manny) to take some of the pressure off.

Colletti could probably go get such a player via trade, but it might mean mortgaging the future. Prince Fielder would certainly fit the bill, but would definitely cost the team Loney and a couple of top prospects and he would almost certainly be unsignable a year from now. But if the Dodgers go to the playoffs, thereby protecting Colletti's job, wouldn't it be worth it? To Colletti at least?

On the other hand, Colletti could look to some of the riskier trade candidates like Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham. Such players could probably be had without decimating the farm system, but there is a much higher likelihood they could be busts, either due to injuries or ineffectiveness.

The fact is, time is running short for this incarnation of the Dodgers. Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Loney, Billingsley, and Kuo will all be free agents by the end of the 2012 season. Considering how much success this cast of players had very early in their careers, anything short of a World Series appearance would have to be considered a failure. If they don't get within striking distance of that goal in 2011, I expect the blame game to begin. First-year manager Don Mattingly will probably get a pass. Colletti will not. It's time for him to prove that he's not just another example of Frank McCourt's incompetence.