March 1-3: The Cheap Cheat Sheet
My general approach to fantasy auctions is to target about a dozen guys and fill my remaining roster with players who I think are being undervalued by my competitors. My usual "targets" won't surprise any of my regular readers: Roy Halladay, Prince Fielder, Justin Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Russell Martin, etc. None of these guys ended up on my BLOGZKRIEG! team, which is by design.
For BLOGZKRIEG! I decided not to target any "studs," but rather contented myself with whatever elite players "fell to me." I was hoping this would leave me with a few extra dollars to apply towards the middle-tier players about whom I was most optimistic. There are no "sleepers" in an expert league, so I was doubtful that I would be able to sneak guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce through the auction for less than $20-$25. I wanted to be budgeted nonetheless to make a real run at several of the young five-tool hitters. In general, I wanted to load up on what I considered $15-$25 values, rather than have a trio of consistent producers eating up 40% of my budget.
The template I had laid out prior to the draft suggested that the top players would probably go for about $45, with another dozen or so falling into the $30-$40 range. I assumed, if I wasn't picky, I'd find a couple high-profile producers for around $35. It became clear, however, after about a day of bidding that almost all of the traditional "first-rounders" were going to top $35, while Pujols and Hanley went for $50! My calculations (at least regarding the elite players) were about $5 too low, and if I wanted at least two of the top 25 players on my board, I was likely going to need to spend slightly more than the $70 I had allocated for premium talent. (To this point, at the end of Day Five, 21 players have gone above $30 and $13 above $35.)
This is as good a place as any to explain how I came up with the market values on my "board" to begin with. Obviously, there are products available to help you accomplish this. Several of my competitors, including the Roto Professor and the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa have such products for sale on their sites. However, if you aren't willing to pay for a magic formula, here's where you start. Take your favorite fantasy magazine (I'm partial to the one published by Beckett and Rotoworld, which costs $6.99 at your local supermarket) and see what kind of league they publish auction cheat sheets for. In the vast majority of cases, it will be for a 12-team league with 5 X 5 roto scoring, 23-man rosters, and $260 budget. The average player in such a league, assuming everybody uses all their money at the auction, will go for about $11.30. So, if you use the same rules, you can just use their stated values as a guide. However, if you are in a league like BLOGZKRIEG!, which feature 13 teams, 30-man rosters, and a $330 budget, you need to alter their projections to fit your format. The average player in our league will go for exactly $11.00. That $0.30 is equivalent to a dollar or two at the upper end of the player scale, which is neither here nor there, because I'm not quite finished.
In a standard league, there are usually only two bench spots. In our league, there are seven. Nobody is likely to use more than one or two dollars apiece on their bench guys, so in actuality our auction will function more like 13 teams, 23-man rosters, and a $323 budget (whereas a standard league functions more like 12 teams, 21-man rosters, $258 budget). When I alter my calculations to fit these criteria we see a major difference, the average active standard league player costs $12.28 and the average active BLOGZKRIEG! player costs $14.04. So, that's roughly a 14% increase.
For the cheapest player, 14% is essentially meaningless. $3 in a standard league is still $3 in BLOGZKRIEG!, and though $6 is more like $7, that's essentially no change when you consider the implicit error margins (every player on your draft board should be considered +/- $1-$2, so you're not looking to buy a Paul Konerko for exactly $13, but rather to get him somewhere in the $11-$15 range). However, for the most expensive players, 14% makes a sizable difference. Albert Pujols, who is usually rated at $40-$45 in most magazines, is worth between $45-$51 in BLOGZKRIEG!. Based on this predication, maybe I shouldn't have been surprised when Pujols and Hanley both when for $50. I was, only because I expected my fellow "experts" to error on the side of caution with the elite talent, and thus not overreach the low end of that price range.
So, if I were sticking rigidly to Rotoworld's projections as my guide, how did I do with my first two acquisitions, which are likely to be two of the most expensive selections of my draft. According to Rotoworld's $34 rating, I had Miguel Cabrera valued at $38.76, meaning I bought him at exactly market price. However, I had Yovani Gallardo rated at $18.24. Even taking into account the margins, I went $8-$10 over market price! This is why Jonathan Gangi called my Gallardo bid "the biggest reach of the auction to this point" at the end of Day Three.
Of course, as you'll discover below, on my personal board I was willing to spend as much as $30 on Gallardo, so according to my rankings, the selection was well within market value. You see, once you've altered the figures to fit the parameters of your auction, you still need to seriously consider how you feel about the rankings of the guide you've chose. Keep in mind, when the experts at Rotoworld put that cheat sheet together, it was probably mid-December at the latest. Many big free agents hadn't even signed yet and there was little to know prognosis on guys coming off of injuries. No doubt, they would alter many of their projections come March (which is why many magazines also make it possible for you to access updated cheat sheets on the web).
Presumably, since I chose to use Rotoworld as my guide, I was going to agree with them in the majority of cases. However, many of my target players, I felt, were worth more than what they suggested (and, contrarily, there were several players they displayed a fondness for that I wanted nothing to do with). For instance, Rotoworld ranks Gallardo in their "forth tier" among starting pitchers, alongside players like Brett Anderson, Wandy Rodriguez, and Rick Porcello, while my starting pitching preview put him in my second tier, alongside guys like Josh Beckett and Josh Johnson.
Rotoworld projects Josh Johnson to post these numbers: 15 W, 174 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 199 IP.
They project Josh Beckett to post these numbers: 16 W, 180 K, 3.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 196 IP. I concur that those are reasonable projections.
In 2009 Gallardo managed 13 W, 204 K, a 3.73 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and 186 IP. A very minimal improvement in ERA and WHIP would have him right in line with what they're projecting for Beckett and Johnson. As I actually believe Gallardo could be a borderline Cy Young contender this season, I'm fully willing to bet on at the very least a slight improvement.
Rotoworld prices the Joshes at $21 and $25, which makes their BLOGZKRIEG! range something like $24-$29. Although I certainly paid full price for Gallardo, it wasn't really a reach according to my board. And, to be fair, Rotoworld seemed to have undervalued Gallardo even according to their own projections, which were 14 W, 175 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 197 IP.
It's always nice to remind one's self, whenever one wonders whether one has paid too much, that somebody else in your league must have valued that player for your price minus $1, which is essentially negligible. There's no Scott Boras at your fantasy auction, so you'll never get caught bidding against yourself.
Hippeaux's Nominations (My High Bid/Sale Price):
3/1:
C Russell Martin ($17/$18)
SP Roy Halladay ($35/$36)
3B David Wright ($20/$31)
3/2:
SS Jimmy Rollins ($25/$27)
CF/RF Josh Hamilton ($15/$21)
SP Yovani Gallardo ($28)
3/3:
1B/3B Pablo Sandoval ($25/$28)
1B Justin Morneau ($22)
1B Adrian Gonzalez ($15/$27)
2B Brandon Phillips ($21/$22)
SS Alexei Ramirez ($15/$16)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/3:
1B Miguel Cabrera ($38)
SP Yovani Gallardo ($28)
March 4: "How many first-baseman can I cram onto my roster? You might be surprised."
The nice thing about a slow draft like this one, which takes place over a matter of weeks, rather than hours, is that it leaves you plenty of opportunity to alter your strategy "on the fly." When Pujols, Fielder, Texeira, and Howard all moved toward $40 on the second day of bidding, I started contemplating a familiar strategy, one which I call the "Trio Triumvirate," because it implies looking for "three threes" (3 is the scoring number for first base).
First off, I wanted to make sure I got one of the remaining premium first-base thumpers, from a group including Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, and Kevin Youkilis, preferably for $35-$40 (I ended up with Cabrera for $38). I also intended to spend another $25-$30 on an additional first-baseman to fill my corner-infielder slot, either another player from that elite group, if the prices fell far enough, or somebody from my second tier, like Derrek Lee, Joey Votto, or Lance Berkman (I ended up with Morneau for $22). In all likelihood, two of my three most expensive players (and my two most expensive hitters) would both be first-basemen. After which I aimed at making that duo into a trio by filling my utility slot with a middle tier first-baseman (or DH), probably somebody in the $12-$18 range (I ended up with David Ortiz for $17).
The logic behind this is simple and I've discussed in greater depth elsewhere: not only are first-baseman notorious stat-hounds, because the position is largely reserved for mashers, they also don't get hurt nearly as often as outfielders and other infielders. Sure, nobody's completely safe on the diamond, but if you go back over the last few seasons you'll see that premier first-basemen consistently make more starts year after year than the elite talent at other positions. If I'm going to pay top dollar for a player, I want him in the lineup.
All told, I was willing to commit $80 (~25% of my budget) to three players at a single position.
On Day Three, by which point Cabrera, Youkilis, and Votto were already in play, I used my nominations to further flood the market (with Kung Fu Panda, Gonzo, & Morneau), so that I could see which remaining first-baseman drew the most interest. Youkilis spiked to nearly $30 in just a few minutes (thanks largely to his 3B eligibility, no doubt), while Morneau and Votto drew considerably less interest.
As a result of this strategy, the first three hitters I procured were Cabrera, Morneau, and Ortiz. I knew that by taking these three early, I was robbing myself of the ability to "steal" an undervalued first-baseman like James Loney or Billy Butler later in the auction. However, I liked the fact that by buying these three players for almost exactly the amount I had budgeted, I gave my team an identity, thus making it easier to predict what I needed and who I could afford at other positions during the critical days in the middle of the auction.
I felt safe predicting that Miggy, Papi, and Morneau would all bring a boatload of homers and RBI, and they wouldn't hurt me in terms of average (Cabrera's ability to hit .330 compensating for Ortiz's potential to hit .250). So, for the next several days I could concentrate primarily on pitching and speed.
ADDENDUM: I had thoughts about pursuing this strategy to previously unprecedented heights by pursuing guys like Adam Dunn and Troy Glaus, who have position eligibility at LF and 3B respectively, even though they will likely spend most of this season playing first. However, both are valuable primarily because of their power and by the time they were nominated I felt my resources were better spent elsewhere.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/4
CF B. J. Upton ($15/20)
RP Joakim Soria ($15/$18)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/4
1B Justin Morneau ($22)
DH David Ortiz ($17)
LF/CF Carlos Gonzalez ($12)
March 4: "How many first-baseman can I cram onto my roster? You might be surprised."
The nice thing about a slow draft like this one, which takes place over a matter of weeks, rather than hours, is that it leaves you plenty of opportunity to alter your strategy "on the fly." When Pujols, Fielder, Texeira, and Howard all moved toward $40 on the second day of bidding, I started contemplating a familiar strategy, one which I call the "Trio Triumvirate," because it implies looking for "three threes" (3 is the scoring number for first base).
First off, I wanted to make sure I got one of the remaining premium first-base thumpers, from a group including Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, and Kevin Youkilis, preferably for $35-$40 (I ended up with Cabrera for $38). I also intended to spend another $25-$30 on an additional first-baseman to fill my corner-infielder slot, either another player from that elite group, if the prices fell far enough, or somebody from my second tier, like Derrek Lee, Joey Votto, or Lance Berkman (I ended up with Morneau for $22). In all likelihood, two of my three most expensive players (and my two most expensive hitters) would both be first-basemen. After which I aimed at making that duo into a trio by filling my utility slot with a middle tier first-baseman (or DH), probably somebody in the $12-$18 range (I ended up with David Ortiz for $17).
The logic behind this is simple and I've discussed in greater depth elsewhere: not only are first-baseman notorious stat-hounds, because the position is largely reserved for mashers, they also don't get hurt nearly as often as outfielders and other infielders. Sure, nobody's completely safe on the diamond, but if you go back over the last few seasons you'll see that premier first-basemen consistently make more starts year after year than the elite talent at other positions. If I'm going to pay top dollar for a player, I want him in the lineup.
All told, I was willing to commit $80 (~25% of my budget) to three players at a single position.
On Day Three, by which point Cabrera, Youkilis, and Votto were already in play, I used my nominations to further flood the market (with Kung Fu Panda, Gonzo, & Morneau), so that I could see which remaining first-baseman drew the most interest. Youkilis spiked to nearly $30 in just a few minutes (thanks largely to his 3B eligibility, no doubt), while Morneau and Votto drew considerably less interest.
As a result of this strategy, the first three hitters I procured were Cabrera, Morneau, and Ortiz. I knew that by taking these three early, I was robbing myself of the ability to "steal" an undervalued first-baseman like James Loney or Billy Butler later in the auction. However, I liked the fact that by buying these three players for almost exactly the amount I had budgeted, I gave my team an identity, thus making it easier to predict what I needed and who I could afford at other positions during the critical days in the middle of the auction.
I felt safe predicting that Miggy, Papi, and Morneau would all bring a boatload of homers and RBI, and they wouldn't hurt me in terms of average (Cabrera's ability to hit .330 compensating for Ortiz's potential to hit .250). So, for the next several days I could concentrate primarily on pitching and speed.
ADDENDUM: I had thoughts about pursuing this strategy to previously unprecedented heights by pursuing guys like Adam Dunn and Troy Glaus, who have position eligibility at LF and 3B respectively, even though they will likely spend most of this season playing first. However, both are valuable primarily because of their power and by the time they were nominated I felt my resources were better spent elsewhere.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/4
CF B. J. Upton ($15/20)
RP Joakim Soria ($15/$18)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/4
1B Justin Morneau ($22)
DH David Ortiz ($17)
LF/CF Carlos Gonzalez ($12)
March 5: Going Gonzo
In case I haven't made it clear elsewhere, I'm pretty excited about Carlos Gonzalez. My track record for projecting young, breakout outfielders has been pretty solid recently. Last year I loaded up on Justin Upton. Two years ago I loaded up on Matt Kemp. Three years ago it was Nick Markakis. And, while I also like Jay Bruce and a couple others this season, Gonzalez is my primary man-crush. He raked all through the second half of '09. The Rockies handed him an everyday job in the middle of July, after which he hit .320 with 12 HR, 11 SB, and a 992 OPS, then absolutely torched Dodger pitching in the NLDS (1514 OPS), a performance which I expected to dramatically drive up his price this spring.
I am by no means the only one loving C-Gonz. Most of the magazines I looked at projected Gonzalez's value in the $18-$22 range (which is $21-$25 in BLOGZKRIEG! bucks), so I was worried that the $25 I had budgeted might even by conservative if I ran up against another owner who was gaga for Gonzo.
As it turned out, five outfielders went for $30+, but only one (Ellsbury) went for $25-$30, so clearly BLOGZKRIEG! owners were only willing to break the bank for the premier talent (Braun, Kemp, Upton, Crawford, Holliday). Several of what I would call solid second-tier guys went for more than $10 under the first tier: Markakis ($20), Bay ($20), Lind ($20), Sizemore ($21), and Ichiro ($20).
Nonetheless, if felt like my coup de grace when I was able to bring in Gonzalez for less than half the price I'd budgeted. I woke up on Day Five to an unexpected boon: the opportunity to chase another premier player (~$25) either in the outfield, at third base, second base, or pitcher.
Gonzalez still looks to me like a steal, but outfielders in general are going relatively cheap. Andrew McCutchen, who shares many of Gonzalez's likeable traits, was only $13 and Torii Hunter, a proven combination of power and speed, also went at that price. That indicated to me that the $30-$40 I had budgeted for the rest of my outfield would probably be sufficient. The real question was whether to take the $13 I'd saved on Gonzalez and dedicate it to my pitching pursuits, perhaps making it possible for me to take home three studs, or to go after another premier infielder.
By the time I was making this decision, there weren't a lot of great infield options left. I was already chalk filled with first-basemen and Pablo Sandoval ($28), Jose Reyes ($35), and Troy Tulowitzki ($35) were well outside my price range. My potential pursuits were Robinson Cano (2B), Brian McCann (C), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Mark Reynolds (3B), and Aramis Ramirez (3B), each of whom I expected to close somewhere in the $20-$25 range. Although I liked all of these players to a degree, only Reynolds represented any help in the category I most desperately needed: stolen bases. I made a $20 bid on Reynolds, but doubted very much that my fellow owners, even if they didn't expect him to repeat last season's performance, would allow me to have a legit 30/30 threat at that price. The problem with bidding up further on Reynolds, in addition to my impression that I might be paying for last year's stats, was that he had the potential to drive me into a surplus in HR and RBI, while bringing down my batting average. When Mark Schruender bid $21, I didn't pursue it further (as it turned out, Schruender got him for that price).
Instead of dedicating my newfound funds to a single hitter, I decided I would spread them evenly among the infield, outfield, and pitching staff. An extra $3-$5 might be enough to net me Chone Figgins, whose speed I desperately needed, at 3B. I would also allow me to get involved in the bidding on some of the better stolen-base threats in the outfield (B. J. Upton, Shane Victorino, etc.) and chase an additional Ace (by this point it had become pretty clear, there were going to be some bargain-basement starting pitchers).
At the very end of Day Five I picked up a couple of players who would contribute heartily to my batting average, run, and stolen base totals: Asdrubal Cabrera and Ichiro Suzuki. I purchased both at essentially their market price (at least in term of this league). Ichiro went neck-and-neck with the second-tier of outfielders (listed above) and Cabrera was comparable to guys like Elvis Andrus ($13) and Jason Bartlett ($14). I probably would've been willing to pay a couple more dollars for Asdrubal just for his position eligibility. Since I can slot him into either second or short, I now have more flexibility in my other middle infield pursuits (it seem like shortstops are going at a higher premium than second-baseman so far) and during the season it allows me some wiggle room in the event of injuries.
ADDENDUM: The effect of Gonzalez's signing had a major bearing on my Day Six aquistions, when I acquired Figgins for $13 and Cliff Lee for $20. Both, I felt, came at a slightly reduced rate, but I would not have had the money budgeted to take advantage if I'd had gone $20+ for Gonzalez.
Figgins' discount - compared to Adrian Beltre ($18), Miguel Tejada ($16), and Gordon Beckham ($16) -has a lot to do with the fact that he is a speed guy at a position traditionally reserved for power. With several power bats already in the fold, I felt I could afford to go this route, especially considering I had him valued at $19 in BLOGZKRIEG! bucks.
Lee was just one of several elite starting pitchers who came at a significantly reduced price. Going into the auction I had a dozen pitchers valued between $25-$35. Here's how the auction has actually played out thusfar (Actual Price/My Projected Price):
Roy Halladay $36 / $35
Tim Lincecum $36 / $35
Zack Greinke $30 / $27
Felix Hernandez $28 / $30
Yovani Gallardo $28 / $26
Dan Haren $27 / $25
Johan Santana $26 / $25
C. C. Sabathia $25 / $32
Justin Verlander $24 / $29
Jon Lester $24 / $25
Adam Wainwright $21 / $27
Jake Peavy $20 / $15
Cliff Lee $20 / $30
Chris Carpenter $19 / $28
In the context of this list my Gallardo selection on Day Three is looking more and more like a reach, although when I drafted him, I had no idea there was going to be an $11 dropoff between the #1 starting pitcher on my board (Halladay) and the #3 starting pitcher on my board (Sabathia). However, what I overpaid for Gallardo, I made up for by underpaying for Lee. Verlander, Sabathia, and Carpenter were also incredible deals. I entered into the bidding on all of them, but eventually decided that with the price of pitching falling to this degree, I'd be better off waiting and chasing a pair of $10-$15 guys.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/5
C Yadier Molina ($8)
C Brian McCann ($15/$18)
SP Josh Johnson ($12/$16)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/5
2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera ($13)
RF Ichiro Suzuki ($20)
March 6: The Case For Yadier Molina
The vast majority of competitive leagues require you to carry a pair of active catchers. When you consider that in 2009 only 17 catchers got as many as 400 plate appearances and several of those were deadweight in terms of fantasy production, you begin to see how critical this position becomes, especially if your league consists of twelve or more teams.
There are a number of strategies. Jonathan Gangi of Roto Rebel highly suggests you spend whatever it takes to get a pair of premium backstops. In BLOGZKRIEG! he held true to this philosophy and spent $42 to acquire Russell Martin and Victor Martinez, who are, I think it's safe to say, easily two of the top five catching options (at least prior to the news of Martin's injury, which came several days after he'd been rostered).
Others, however, see quite a bit of risk in carrying a pair of expensive backstops. For one thing, only a few catchers get a full season worth of at-bats. Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer were the only catchers who got as many as 600 plate appearances in '09, and they only reached that tally because they were able to spend some of their "off days" at DH or 1B. In the National League, Brian McCann, for instance, may be as good a hitter as many of your premier cornermen, but he's never gotten more than 509 at-bats and for that reason alone has never had a shot at 30 HR and 100 RBI.
The other reason it's risky to spend big money for your catchers is that it is, other than pitcher, easily the most demanding position on the field. Most of the best catchers in recent memory - Mauer, Martinez, Posada, Piazza, etc. - have missed the bulk of at least one or two seasons due to back or knee injuries. Even the most durable gamers, like Russell Martin, Ivan Rodriguez, and Bengie Molina get ground down by the six-month season, so that their second-half production is consistently weaker that you would like it to be.
It may be boring, but when I target catchers, I'm mainly looking to inexpensively tread water. I'm not expecting any contributions in terms of speed or power. All I want is a couple of guys who will provide a steady, modest stream of production in the counting categories and won't be a complete drag on my batting average, and I'd like to get them both for a total of $15-$20.
You'd be surprised, even such low expectations aren't easy to fulfill. For most roto leagues, the mean batting average is going to end up somewhere in the .285-.290 range. In 2009, of the 29 catcher who got even as many as 300 plate appearances, only eight hit .280 or higher, while cool dozen hit below .250. As you might expect, V-Mart and Mauer were at the top, and will be priced as such in 2010. McCann and Matt Wieters are also likely to cost you a pretty penny. Jorge Posada and A. J. Pierzynski are more reasonably-priced and I'd endorse both of them if you can get them in the $8-$12 range. However, Posada's age and health are quite worrisome and Pierzynski (who isn't exactly spry anymore) is going to lose some starts this season to Tyler Flowers.
Which brings my to Miguel Montero and Yadier Molina. These were my primary targets in BLOGZKRIEG! and if you play in a two-catcher roto league, they might be good for you as well. Montero quietly had a breakout season in '09, surging ahead of Chris Snyder on Arizona's depth chart. Montero hit .294 in his first season as starter (he'd been Snyder's back-up in the previous two years) and, as an added bonus, contributed 16 HR and a nice tidy package of runs and RBI (61, 59). Montero's power is his main selling point, but he also is fairly disciplined and, at 26, could still have a little upside.
Upside is also an attractive aspect of Molina, who, although he's entering his sixth season as the Cardinals primary backstop, is still only 27. Molina has posted modest increases in OPS in each of the last three seasons and for the past two years he's been one of the most consistent hitters at his position, batting .304 in '08 and .293 in '09. Molina can chip in six or seven homeruns and even a handful of steals (9 SB in '09), but what I like most is his playing time.
Molina, as you probably know, is widely considered the best defensive catcher in baseball. For that reason alone, Tony LaRussa keeps him in the lineup, getting him 140 starts in '09, second most in the NL (behind Martin). Given that many at-bats, Molina's high average can actually be a serious boon in fantasy leagues, plus he has more opportunities to accumulate runs and RBI. He'll bat sixth or seventh in the St. Louis lineup, which means he'll often be hitting with Pujols and Holliday on base in front of him. Molina is one of the rare catchers who actually got better as the year went on in 2009. He hit .312 in the second half and .326 in August and September, after the acquistion of Holliday. It's a small sample size, but evidence that getting back to a .300 average in 2008 is by no means an unreasonable expectation.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/6
SP Ubaldo Jimenez ($17)
Hippeaux's Acquistions:
3/6
3B Chone Figgins ($13)
SP Cliff Lee ($20)
C Yadier Molina ($8)
At the end of the auction my team looks like this:
C Yadier Molina ($8), Cardinals 27
C John Baker ($4), Marlins 29
1B Miguel Cabrera ($38), Tigers 26
2B Howie Kendrick ($10), Angels 26
3B Chone Figgins ($14), Mariners 32
SS Asdrubal Cabrera ($13), Indians 24
MI Rafael Furcal ($5), Dodgers 32
CI Justin Morneau ($22), Twins 28
LF Alfonso Soriano ($8), Cubs 34
CF Carlos Gonzalez ($12), Rockies 24
RF Ichiro Suzuki ($20), Mariners 36
OF Jay Bruce ($17), Reds 22
OF Chris Young ($2), D-Backs 26
UT David Ortiz ($17), Red Sox 34
SP Cliff Lee ($20), Mariners 31
SP Yovani Gallardo ($28), Brewers 24
SP Ubaldo Jimenez ($17), Rockies 26
SP Jered Weaver ($12), Angels 27
SP Edwin Jackson ($6), D-Backs 26
SP John Danks ($6), White Sox 24
RP Carlos Marmol ($14), Cubs 27
RP Jose Valverde ($12), Astros 31
RP Jason Frasor ($1), Blue Jays 32
C/1B Jeff Clement ($2), Pirates 26
1B Aubrey Huff ($1), Giants 33
2B/3B Placido Polanco ($3), Phillies 34
CF/RF Elijah Dukes ($1), Nationals 25
SP Ian Kennedy ($7), D-Backs 25
SP Aroldis Chapman ($4), Reds 22
SP John Lannan ($1), Nationals 25
I'm very pleased with this roster, but recognize that I've taken some risks, particularly by relying very heavily on youth. If you consider that baseball players prime years are generally between the ages of 27 and 32, I am far more endangered by guys who haven't gotten there yet (15) than by guys who are on the downward slope (5). The paid a relatively high price form Yovani Gallardo, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, etc., but the likelihood that they will all have breakout seasons simultaneously is relatively slim. That said, I like betting on youth more than some of the other high-risk/high-reward strategies employed by my leaguemates. It will be great fun to watch these kids play.
Also, although I certainly didn't set out to do it intentionally, I love that fact that 20 of the 30 franchises are represented on my team. If you've read this far, clearly you know how much a premium I put on watching every team in the league several times each season. This will give me further impetus to do so.
No horrible Spring Training news, but there are a few anxiety-provoking tidbits:
-Big Papi is off to a slow start, as usual.
-I got a bit of scare when Placido Polanco left the game after an apparent knee injury, but he expects to play within a week.
-Unfortunately, Elijah Dukes has been released by the Nationals. I really thought he would be neck-and-neck with Chris Young for my fifth outfielder spot, but now it looks like I'll be replacing him after the first round of waivers. I can't imagine where he would latch on where he could immediately grab a starting outfield spot (as he was rumored to have in Washington).
-Jeff Clement has been given every opportunity to win the first base job in Pittsburgh. If he's a starter, his catcher eligibility could be a real boon to me, but thusfar he's definitely making the Pirates consider other alternatives.
-Jason Frasor hasn't looked great in limited action so far as he competes for the closer role in Toronto with Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg. I certainly didn't draft him counting on a whole lot of saves, but it would be nice for him to win the role.
On the other hand, there are some really positive developments as well:
-Miguel Cabrera came into camp looking svelte and promising to give up boozing and philandering. Considering he homered the day after his embarrassing arrest last October, I'm not sure whether I should be happy about this or not.
-Aroldis Chapman has looked very good in his first three Cactus League outings, and must be favored to make the Opening Day rotation. I don't think I'll trust him enough during the first month to put him on my active roster, but you know I'll be watching those starts with baited breath.
-Chone Figgins has played a lot of second base this spring. It would be great if the Mariners used him there at least long enough to give him eligibility and provide me with some additional roster flexibility. I've already got Asdrubal Cabrera and Placido Polanco available at multiple infield positions.
-I don't place a whole lot of faith in Spring stats, but Chris Young, Jay Bruce, and Aubrey Huff are all killing the ball thusfar. As three of my riskier selections, I'd certainly rather see this than the alternative.
March 7: "The greatest danger to my slow auction strategy is my tendency to be inebriated at least once a week."
At the end of Day Six, my team looked like this:
$38 Miguel Cabrera (1B)
$28 Yovani Gallardo (SP)
$22 Justin Morneau (1B)
$20 Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
$20 Cliff Lee (SP)
$17 David Ortiz (DH)
$13 Chone Figgins (3B)
$13 Asdrubal Cabrera (3B)
$12 Carlos Gonzalez (LF/CF)
$8 Yadier Molina (C)
I had drafted exactly 33% of my team and had spent 58% of my budget. Considering that there were only a handful of players remaining who were likely to require a bid of more than $20, I felt like I was in a good place. I warned myself, "At this juncture, it is critical to resist the temptation to jump on another player in the $15-$20 range just because he's going for $2-$3 less than I think he should." And so, I let go of B. J. Upton ($20). I let go of Curtis Granderson ($19). I let go of Shin-Soo Choo ($16). I let go of Adam Dunn ($16).
Then, on Saturday afternoon, I came home filled with Budweiser, Clamato, and an inexplicable passion for Jay Bruce, for whom I proceeded to bid $17.
Jay Bruce, like Yovani Gallardo, was one of the dozen or so players I came into the draft targeting. I had marked $20 as my limit, but that was before outfielders who I thought were worth $25+ started going for $19-$21. In this market, Jay Bruce and his unfilled potential should not have commanded more than a $15 bid.
I didn't regret my bid on Gallardo, because at the time I couldn't have predicted that I would've been able to get Sabathia for the same price. This is merely the danger of bidding on players before their market has been established. Sometimes you end up overpaying, but if you ignore the first several rounds of auctioning, than you risk fielding a team with no studs or (the cardinal sin in my opinion) leaving money on the table at the end of the auction.
When I woke up the sober owner of Jay Bruce on Sunday, I had regrets. Actually, I woke up long before my bid became official, which was especially cruel. I kept checking the auction board every twenty minutes, hoping that somebody else had a Jay Bruce boner even bigger than mine. Unfortunately, Mike Kuchera's must have been approximately 12% short.
I love Bruce. I think this is likely to be his breakout season, but let's face it, at his age, it is just as likely that 2011 or 2012 is actually his breakout season. As such, I don't think he's as smart a play in this price range as Dunn or Choo. More importantly, I don't think he's worth $10 more than the five-tool, high-upside outfielders I know full well will be available at a significantly reducted rate in the coming week: Chris Young, Alex Rios, Corey Hart, Colby Rasmus, Julio Borbon, etc. Better to have two of them, than one Jay Bruce.
But, alas, the deed was done. If going slightly too high on Jay Bruce only costs me one player I covet during the incredible deal portion of the auction, that's no big deal. I'll hang my hat on his exceptional potential. But in the event Borbon and Rios both go for under $10, or I can't reach an extra couple dollars on Chad Billingsley and David Price (or whoever I'm chasing at the time). Well, it could be enough to make me swear off weekend afternoon boozing. More realistically, maybe I should swear off using the internet in the wake of weekend afternoon boozing.
At the rate most owners were spending, there was a good chance there would be many likable players available $5-$10 in just a few days. I wanted to be able to afford several of them.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/7
1B Carlos Pena ($1/$8)
1B James Loney ($1/$5)
3B Michael Young ($1/$10)
OF Denard Span ($1/$14)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/7
RP Carlos Marmol ($14)
SP Ubaldo Jimenez ($17)
RF Jay Bruce ($17)
SP Jered Weaver ($12)
LF Alfonso Soriano ($8)
March 8-9: "Categories aren't usually won during the draft (or auction)...with one exception."
When I play standard roto leagues (and I usually only have one or two each year), my primary drafting weaknesses are batting average and saves. I'll address the latter first.
I'm only ever intending to finish the season in the middle of the pack in the saves category. I attempt to grab two or three mediocre closers during the draft or auction with the assumption that I'll be able to find at least twenty saves on the waiver wire. In most leagues, that's more than realistic. In an "experts" league, I expected several owners might share this strategy, so it might prove more difficult.
I shouldn't have been surprised then, when none of the BLOGZKRIEG! owners were willing to "pay for saves." On Day Five Mariano Rivera, who was the #1 closer on my board and must have been in the top five for everybody, went for $18, which was exactly half the price of the #1 starting pitchers (Halladay & Lincecum). For $40 you were going to be able to round up a very decent bullpen. In the end, the category will end up being decided in the same way it always is, with a little luck and diligent attention to your FAAB.
Most teams, mine included, went the conservative route, paying for a couple of decent closers with good job security (in my case, Carlos Marmol and Jose Valverde). Jonathan Gangi paid $10 or more for four different closers, including Rivera, giving him a good headstart on winning the category. However, they were the only pitchers he selected during the first week of auctioning. No doubt there is plenty inexpensive pitching left, much of it with great upside, but I wonder whether he can finish respectably in wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP without anything resembling a bonafide Ace.
On the other extreme, Scott Swanay ignored saves entirely for the first week. He can take this strategy one of two ways. In all likelihood he will be able to get a couple low-end closers for around $5 apiece, guys like Matt Capps, Jason Frasor, and Octavio Dotel. He can hope to strike lightning in a bottle, while actively coveting set-up men who could come into the position (he recently took home Jason Motte and Michael Wuertz for $1 each). Or, he can choose to punt saves entirely, filling his pitching staff with starters. If he goes this route, he should easily lead the way in the strikeouts and wins, but he'll have to make excellent selections in order have a respectable finish in ERA and WHIP. When you punt a category you have very little room for error in the other nine, so I sincerely doubt he'll go that route.
While saves come into the league constantly, batting average does not. There are very few surprising .300 hitters each season. Even those that become available aren't always great additions to your team, because by the time you identify them you've already missed out on a significant portion of their at-bats. Plus, there's no guarantee that a guy who hits .320 in April and May is going to maintain that pace for the rest of the season.
Identifying and selecting a few high-average hitters, preferably for a reasonable price, is the most important aspect of the draft/auction. Not only is it the category least likely to be won by crafty waiver work, having leverage in that department is essential to your flexibility during the auction itself. For instance, Ryan Lester surprised everybody when he paid $100 for Pujols and Hanley Ramirez in the early days of the auction. He then added Dustin Pedroia, meaning that the first three hitters on his roster were all likely to hit well above .300, perhaps even contend for batting titles.
Now, since Mr. Lester had spent 38% of his budget on 10% of his roster, he was going to need to identify cheap talent from that point forward. He immediately began targeting guys who would be discounted in part because of their propensity to post low averages. He grabbed Ian Stewart, who has big-time power and valuable position eligibility (2B/3B) for $10, then nabbed Jayson Werth and his consecutive 20/20 seasons for $22. Werth is a career .265 hitter. Stewart hit .228 in his first full season. On most teams, even if they combined to hit .260 that would be a terrible drag on the team average, but as Hanley, Pujols, and Pedroia may combine to hit .330, Ryan had some wiggle room, and thus acquired about 60 HR.
I didn't feature the same extremes, but my approach was similar. Miguel Cabrera, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Ichiro Suzuki made it possible for me to grab the boatload of power represented by Jay Bruce, Alfonso Soriano, and David Ortiz. Nonetheless, I'm hoping the latter trio can combine to hit at least .275. In the final days, I will be prioritizing getting one or two of the remaining .300 hitters, guys like Howie Kendrick, Juan Pierre, and Martin Prado. If that average comes with a little speed as well, that would be a bonus.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/9
C/1B Jeff Clement ($2)
CF Chris Young ($2)
C Carlos Santana ($1/$2)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/8
RP Jose Valverde ($12)
3/9
SP John Danks ($6)
March 10-12: "Young, dumb, and..."
I decided early on I was going to forego chasing one of the elite Aces, as both Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum went early in the auction for $36 apiece. My top pitcher, instead, would be somebody I could get for $25-$30. I wasn't sure how many guys would fall into that range, but I accepted the fact that I might be building my staff around a couple of relatively "unproven" guys like Ubaldo Jimenez or Yovani Gallardo (two pitchers I like very, very much in all formats for 2010). I was willing to except the moderate increase in risk associated with young Aces in exchange for the $8-$10 I would be able to apply elsewhere on my roster.
With that caveat, I was still planning as late as Day Four to build my pitching staff according to the formula I laid out in my starting pitching preview a couple weeks ago, with an eye towards mixing high-strikeout youngsters (Jimenez, Gallardo, David Price, Jonathan Sanchez, etc.) with innings-eating veterans (Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, Bronson Arroyo, etc.). That plan was about to change...
On March 4th I started doing the research for this article. At that time I had already purchased Gallardo with the expectation that he would be my co-Ace with Jimenez, who hadn't been nominated yet, but I expected to get for $20-$25 (I actually landed him for $17). I began seriously reevaluating my pitching philosophy and considered going exclusively for upside.
On Day Four, there were a whole host of premium starting pitchers up for auction (Sabathia, King Felix, Johan, Verlander, Carpenter, Lee, etc.) who were were slowly creeping into the twenties. I was willing to take any one of these guys if I could have him for less than $25, but I doubted such a discount would be given. After all, the difference between Sabathia and Halladay is certainly less than $10. As it turned out a quartet of elite pitchers came in under $25: Verlander, Wainwright, Carpenter, and Cliff Lee. I ended up will Lee, as discussed in the adendum to my 3/5 entry.
Expert drafts require risky strategies. This is definitely the make or break moment in my auction. With Lee acting as my dependable Ace, and Gallardo and Jimenez already in the fold, I decided I would dedicate myself with getting as many as five or six of the "21st-Century Cys" I had recently written about. They were,
Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
Chad Billingsley (Dodgers)
Jered Weaver (Angels)
John Danks (White Sox)
Edwin Jackson (Diamondbacks)
David Price (Rays)
John Lannan (Nationals)
Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks)
Ervin Santana (Angels)
Francisco Liriano (Twins)
Gavin Floyd (White Sox)
Manny Parra (Brewers)
All of the other strategies outlined above and below I have utter confidence in, having used them with success on multiple occasions and in a variety of league formats, but I have never before bet the farm on a bunch of 25-year-old pitchers. Very few things are as enjoyable in baseball as watching young pitchers with exceptional stuff learn how to succeed at the big-league level. Worst case scenario it gives me an additional excuse to do what I would be doing anyway.
You will note, however, that my new strategy was really just a variation on my old strategy. Lee was my "bonafide Ace." Gallardo and Jimenez came from the list of quasi-risky borderline Aces. Guys like Jered Weaver, Edwin Jackson, and John Danks qualified as "rubber arms." John Lannan, Chad Billingsley, and David Price were on my "upside" list. Ian Kennedy and Aroldis Chapman are "rookies." Ervin Santana and Gavin Floyd were among my "once and future Aces."
I knew I wasn't going to be able to get everybody on this list because I was hardly the only person in the league capable of identifying them as breakout candidates. However, with Gallardo and Jimenez already in the fold, I thought if I budgeted wisely I could get as many as three or four more. Billingsley, Weaver, Liriano, and Price were likely to be the most expensive, while I reserved hope that Lannan, Danks, and E-Jax might be had for less than $10, perhaps even less than $5.
Especially after I acquired Weaver for only $12, I didn't want to rush the process. I let Billingsley go partially because his price was rising into a range than might limit my ability to bid for some of the others later on and also because his tendency towards somewhat high WHIPs, even when pitching well. I didn't think Billingsley was a good fit since I already had a couple of young pitchers with moderate control issues and both of my closers (Marmol & Valverde) also tended in that direction. I didn't think my team WHIP was in danger yet, but I figured that Billingsley could put me over the top, while simultaneously giving me a surplus of strikeouts. Jimenez and Gallardo have terrific strikeout rates, as does Marmol. Lee and Weaver aren't bad either. John Danks made more sense than Billingsley because although he had a more modest strikeout rate, he's posted a very solid WHIP (1.26) the last two seasons and came at half the cost.
In the end, although I like Billingsley and David Price quite a bit, I like Danks, E-Jax, and Kennedy even more, and I figured that opinion put me in the minority, and would make them even cheaper. At this point I still need two middle infielders, a second catcher, a fifth outfielder, and a number of bench players, so I didn't want to chase another pitcher into the teens if I didn't have to.
My instinct was correct, for the most part. Billingsley ($13) and Liriano ($16) were expensive, at least in comparison with other pitchers nominated in the second week of the auction. Danks ($6) and Jackson ($6) came in for considerably less.
Kennedy, however, who I must admit, I was fully planning on taking home for a single Washington, got me stuck in a bidding war with Nando Di Fino, who, at this point in the auction especially, was the last person I wanted to be grappling with. Nando had essentially sat out for a couple days in the middle of the draft...purposefully. It was his way of protecting himself from overpaying for guys in the middle tier. As a result, as the second week began, he was sitting on a pile of cash. Whomever he targeted, unless he came up against the two other people who still had sizable stacks (Jon Williams and Max Gallner), he was going to be able to win.
His position only got better as the week went on. You were only delaying the inevitable by bidding against him, so most people just left the players he got involved with alone. By the time Kennedy went on the market, I had $45 and he had $102. He eventually allowed me to have Kennedy for $7, but the expense made me incapable of entering the bidding on Price ($7), Dice-K ($6), and Bronson Arroyo ($1), and forced me to stop short on Dexter Fowler, Milton Bradley, and Brad Lidge as well. Despite my gigantic Kennedy crush, I must admit, there's a strong chance everybody on that list is his equal or better in 2010.
In bidding $4 for Aroldis Chapman I was definitely guilty of spontaneously falling victim to the hype following he first Spring Training outing. I wouldn't have pursued it any further, but I'm willing to carry one high-upside prospect on my bench, even if he doesn't break camp with the big club. (Strasburg went for the same price, by the way.) I think the Reds may be tempted to hand Chapman the fifth spot in the rotation if he continues to dominate. It's Dusty Baker's final season at the helm and Jocketty has clearly given him a roster designed to make a bid at the playoffs. Chapman, even if he isn't polished, has more to offer than a retread like Micah Owings or Justin Lehr.
Hippeaux's Nominations:
3/10
SP Ian Kennedy ($7)
CF/RF Alex Rios ($8/$14)
3/11
2B/3B Placido Polanco ($3)
C/1B Ramon Hernandez ($1/$3)
RP Leo Nunez ($4/$5)
Hippeaux's Acquisitions:
3/10
SP Edwin Jackson ($6)
C/1B Jeff Clement ($2)
SP Aroldis Chapman ($4)
CF Chris Young ($2)
3/11
SS Rafael Furcal ($5)
2B Howie Kendrick ($10)
3/12
SP Ian Kennedy ($7)
2B/3B Placido Polanco ($3)
March 13-15: Targets Acquired
I entered the draft with about a dozen "targets". Below I outline who they were when the auction began, along with the maximum amount I was willing to spend on each. The "max" is a necessary aspect of your auction strategy, because it allows you to give yourself a sensible version of what you'll have available after you've acquired your targets. I hoped that some of these guys would actually come at a slightly lower rate. Early in the auction I felt it was critical that I didn't go above the liberal amounts I had set aside for most of these players, because I knew if I did, I would be kicking myself when I didn't have that extra dollar or two to bid up Curtis Granderson or David Price (or some other player I'm fond of) later in the auction. While, as I've pointed out before, losing with players you love is as much fun as winning, you still want to be flexible, because it's better to have three lovable players than just one.
SP Yovani Gallardo ($30) [$28 on Day Three]
LF/CF Carlos Gonzalez ($25) [$12 on Day Four]
SP Ubaldo Jimenez ($25) [$17 on Day Seven]
RF Jay Bruce ($20) [$17 on Day Seven]
SP Edwin Jackson ($15) [$6 on Day Ten]
OF J. Hamilton, C. Beltran, or M. Ramirez ($15) [X, X, X]
2B/3B Placido Polanco and/or Martin Prado ($10) [$3 on Day Twelve, X]
C Yadier Molina ($10) [$8 on Day Five]
CF Chris Young ($10) [$2 on Day Ten]
OF Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes, and/or Milton Bradley ($5) [X, $1 on Day Fourteen, X]
SP John Lannan ($5) [$1 on Day Fourteen]
SP Ian Kennedy ($5) [$7 on Day Twelve]
You'll note that I was targeting Hamilton, Beltran, and Ramirez as though they were a single player. My thought was that these were three veterans who were proven producers, but who were very risky plays this season, for one reason or another (mainly injuries), and I thought I'd take the discount on one of them, if it were offered. It wasn't. Clearly, several other owners were thinking the same thing, and Manny, Hamilton, and Beltran were all nominated in the first 48 hours of bidding. Nando Di Fino, especially, seemed committed to the same philosophy I was employing, only moreso. He won the bidding on Hamilton for $21, and participated in driving up the price on Beltran and Ramirez.
Although I had to pay slightly more, I did feel like netting David Ortiz for $17 was in keeping with the spirit of my original plan, if not the letter. The price for high-upside, risky veterans stayed pretty consistent throughout the draft: Manny Ramirez ($16), Miguel Tejada ($16), Carlos Beltran ($16), Brandon Webb ($16), etc.
Similarly, as I've discussed here previously, I assumed the "angry black men" would be dramatically undervalued, so as homage to my infamous "Soul Brothers" strategy, I was hoping to make a couple of high-risk/high-reward plays for guys like Dukes and Bradley late in the auction. Delmon Young, like Jay Bruce, I feel might be destined for a breakout year, since he's still in his mid-twenties and now has several years in the league. His second half splits in '09 were strong, so I was willing to ignore the potential playing time problems represented by the acquisition of Jim Thome. Hopefully, that uncertainty would only further depress Young's price. By the end of the auction, as it turned out, I was not only short on funds, but deep in outfielders, so I didn't think it was wise to pursue Bradley ($3) and Young ($4) for an extra few dollars. I grabbed Dukes for a buck.
Regular readers will also be unsurprised by my interested in Martin Prado and Placido Polanco. I'm a big fan of players who offer multiple position eligibilities, because it gives you some flexibility when you get hit by injuries. Prado (1B/2B/3B) and Polanco (2B/3B), I expected, would both be reasonably priced, and be quite helpful in the AVG category (the category which, as a sabermetrics guy, I often find myself overlooking in standard roto leagues). Other multiple eligibility players who were at least on my watchlist included Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/SS), Ben Zobrist (2B/RF), Ian Stewart (2B/3B), Jhonny Peralta (3B/SS), Matt LaPorta (1B/OF), and Miguel Tejada (3B/SS), most of whom I expected would probably come at a slightly higher price.
I ended up owning eleven players on my original target list, which speaks to the realistic attainability of the guys I targeted more than to any especially clever strategy during the draft.
It seemed pretty clear early on that middle infielders, particularly shortstops, could be had on the cheap. There is always a lot of risk at these positions, so it's nice when you don't have break the bank. After seeing Jimmy Rollins ($27), Miguel Tejada ($16), Evereth Cabrera ($7), and Yunel Escobar ($8) go for about $5 less than what I'd expected, I decided to again flood the market with my next couple nominations, with my eyes on grabbing either Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubel Cabrera, or Alcides Escobar on the cheap. None of the triple-A's can guarantee a ton of production, but each is young, possesses considerable upside, and they are at least a pretty safe bet to help you in a couple categories - Ramirez (HR, SB), Cabrera (AVG, R, SB), Escobar (R, SB) - with potential to be valuable at four or five. If I could get any one of them for $10-$15, I'd be contented with him as my primary shortstop option.
Hippeaux's Nominations/Acquisitions:
3/13
C John Baker ($4)
RP Jason Frasor ($1)
CF Dexter Fowler ($3/$5)
SP John Lannan ($1)
CF/RF Elijah Dukes ($1)
3/15
1B Aubrey Huff ($1)At the end of the auction my team looks like this:
C Yadier Molina ($8), Cardinals 27
C John Baker ($4), Marlins 29
1B Miguel Cabrera ($38), Tigers 26
2B Howie Kendrick ($10), Angels 26
3B Chone Figgins ($14), Mariners 32
SS Asdrubal Cabrera ($13), Indians 24
MI Rafael Furcal ($5), Dodgers 32
CI Justin Morneau ($22), Twins 28
LF Alfonso Soriano ($8), Cubs 34
CF Carlos Gonzalez ($12), Rockies 24
RF Ichiro Suzuki ($20), Mariners 36
OF Jay Bruce ($17), Reds 22
OF Chris Young ($2), D-Backs 26
UT David Ortiz ($17), Red Sox 34
SP Cliff Lee ($20), Mariners 31
SP Yovani Gallardo ($28), Brewers 24
SP Ubaldo Jimenez ($17), Rockies 26
SP Jered Weaver ($12), Angels 27
SP Edwin Jackson ($6), D-Backs 26
SP John Danks ($6), White Sox 24
RP Carlos Marmol ($14), Cubs 27
RP Jose Valverde ($12), Astros 31
RP Jason Frasor ($1), Blue Jays 32
C/1B Jeff Clement ($2), Pirates 26
1B Aubrey Huff ($1), Giants 33
2B/3B Placido Polanco ($3), Phillies 34
CF/RF Elijah Dukes ($1), Nationals 25
SP Ian Kennedy ($7), D-Backs 25
SP Aroldis Chapman ($4), Reds 22
SP John Lannan ($1), Nationals 25
I'm very pleased with this roster, but recognize that I've taken some risks, particularly by relying very heavily on youth. If you consider that baseball players prime years are generally between the ages of 27 and 32, I am far more endangered by guys who haven't gotten there yet (15) than by guys who are on the downward slope (5). The paid a relatively high price form Yovani Gallardo, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, etc., but the likelihood that they will all have breakout seasons simultaneously is relatively slim. That said, I like betting on youth more than some of the other high-risk/high-reward strategies employed by my leaguemates. It will be great fun to watch these kids play.
Also, although I certainly didn't set out to do it intentionally, I love that fact that 20 of the 30 franchises are represented on my team. If you've read this far, clearly you know how much a premium I put on watching every team in the league several times each season. This will give me further impetus to do so.
No horrible Spring Training news, but there are a few anxiety-provoking tidbits:
-Big Papi is off to a slow start, as usual.
-I got a bit of scare when Placido Polanco left the game after an apparent knee injury, but he expects to play within a week.
-Unfortunately, Elijah Dukes has been released by the Nationals. I really thought he would be neck-and-neck with Chris Young for my fifth outfielder spot, but now it looks like I'll be replacing him after the first round of waivers. I can't imagine where he would latch on where he could immediately grab a starting outfield spot (as he was rumored to have in Washington).
-Jeff Clement has been given every opportunity to win the first base job in Pittsburgh. If he's a starter, his catcher eligibility could be a real boon to me, but thusfar he's definitely making the Pirates consider other alternatives.
-Jason Frasor hasn't looked great in limited action so far as he competes for the closer role in Toronto with Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg. I certainly didn't draft him counting on a whole lot of saves, but it would be nice for him to win the role.
On the other hand, there are some really positive developments as well:
-Miguel Cabrera came into camp looking svelte and promising to give up boozing and philandering. Considering he homered the day after his embarrassing arrest last October, I'm not sure whether I should be happy about this or not.
-Aroldis Chapman has looked very good in his first three Cactus League outings, and must be favored to make the Opening Day rotation. I don't think I'll trust him enough during the first month to put him on my active roster, but you know I'll be watching those starts with baited breath.
-Chone Figgins has played a lot of second base this spring. It would be great if the Mariners used him there at least long enough to give him eligibility and provide me with some additional roster flexibility. I've already got Asdrubal Cabrera and Placido Polanco available at multiple infield positions.
-I don't place a whole lot of faith in Spring stats, but Chris Young, Jay Bruce, and Aubrey Huff are all killing the ball thusfar. As three of my riskier selections, I'd certainly rather see this than the alternative.
