My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Don't Bet On A Darkhorse In The American League

AL East:

For a decade, the AL East was an annul two-horse race between the Yankees and Red Sox.  In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays force there way into playoff picture.  Now, with the Blue Jays and Orioles both fielding impressive young rosters for whom winning records are very realistic, nobody looks forward to visiting any of these cities.  The vaunted East is not far from being a wide-open competition.

But not this year...

I think the Jays and Rays will both be better than .500 teams, and I expect Buck Showalter's "Baby Birds" to have their best season since 2004, but when all is said and done, the Yankees and Red Sox will again be headed for the postseason.

Following an active offseason, in which Theo Epstein brought in a pair of premier hitters, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, to add to a lineup which already promised to be buoyed by the returns of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury, the BoSox are the odds-on favorite not only to win the East, but also the AL Pennant, and the World Series.  They've got a loaded lineup, a deep rotation, and a dynamic bullpen.

The Yankees are far less complete.  They have only once truly dependable starting pitcher.  They have a very uncertain catching situation.  And they depend upon an aging core, several of whom are coming off down seasons.  Still, they've got an abundance of talent, especially on offense, and while it would hardly surprise me if they caught a few bad breaks and fell back of the Rays and/or Jays, I'm having a hard time talking myself into making that prediction.

Boston Red Sox 97 W
New York Yankees 91 W
Toronto Blue Jays 89 W
Tampa Bay Rays 87 W
Baltimore Orioles 78 W

MVP Candidate: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
Cy Young Candidate: C. C. Sabathia, Yankees
Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays
Comeback of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
Breakout Candidates: Ricky Romero, Blue Jays; Adam Jones, Orioles; Brian Matusz, Orioles; Brett Cecil, Blue Jays; Matt Joyce, Rays; Sean Rodriguez, Rays; Jed Lowrie, Red Sox

AL Central:

Many will bet the chalk in the AL Central.  The Twins had an impressive 2010 campaign and none of their divisional opponents made big splashes this offseason.  The Twins do have a few things to hang their hats on.  They've got a plethora of power-hitters.  They've got a three-time batting champ.  They've got arguably the best pitcher in the division.  They've also got some serious uncertainty at the back of the rotation.  They've got unproven players at three infield positions.  And their cleanup hitter is still recovering from a concussion he suffered nine months ago.

Chicago relatively quietly improved themselves this offseason.  Their big move was the addition of free agent, Adam Dunn, who give them a consistent power source to slide into the lineup between Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin.  They bolstered their bullpen with the addition of veteran relievers, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman.  They added an inexpensive high-upside outfielder in Lastings Milledge.  And they brought back clubhouse leaders Konerko, A. J. Pierzynski, and Omar Vizquel.

More importantly, however, the Sox have plenty of depth in their rotation and a handful of young players who could make much bigger contributions in 2011.  Foremost among these is Gordon Beckham, the 24-year-old second-baseman who struggled mightily in the first half of his sophomore season, but made adjustments and hit .310 in the second half.  The White Sox could also get substantial contributions from rookies Chris Sale and Brent Morel, and sophomores Sergio Santos and Dayan Viciedo.

I often preach the importance of depth in the marathon season.  The White Sox have it.  The Twins don't.

Chicago White Sox 92 W
Minnesota Twins 86 W
Detroit Tigers 77 W
Cleveland Indians 70 W
Kansas City Royals 62 W

MVP Candidate: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Cy Young Candidate: Francisco Liriano, Twins
Rookie of the Year: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins
Comeback of the Year: Jake Peavy, White Sox
Breakout Candidates: Max Scherzer, Tigers; Gordon Beckham, White Sox; Kila Ka'aihue, Royals; Asdrubel Cabrera, Indians

AL West:

Sure, they'll miss Cliff Lee.  But the rumors of the Rangers demise have been greatly exaggerated.  Remember, Texas was five games up in the West and playing at a .581 clip before Lee ever threw a pitch for them in 2010.

The ever-optimistic Angels fans will rally behind their solid rotation and their improved bullpen depth, but the Angels ability to score runs remains in doubt, especially with Kendrys Morales remaining on the D.L. to begin the season and still no long-term solution at third base.

The major threat to a Texas repeat is actually the Oakland Athletics.  Billy Beane helped move his offense towards respectability by adding David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui, but the A's still don't possess a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter.  However, teams like the Giants and Padres have proven that mediocre offense can be overcome by superlative pitching.  The A's have potentially superlative pitching.  If the rotation keeps Oakland in the race into July, expect Beane to chase impending free agent rentals.

Texas Rangers 91 W
Oakland Athletics 87 W
Los Angeles Angels 75 W
Seattle Mariners 68 W

MVP Candidate: Josh Hamilton, Rangers
Cy Young Candidate: Jered Weaver, Angels
Rookie of the Year: Chris Carter, Athletics
Comeback of the Year: Chone Figgins, Mariners
Breakout Candidates: Brett Anderson, Athletics; Julio Borbon, Rangers; Jason Vargas, Mariners

Fantastic Thoughts: Rafael Soriano The Latest Premier Reliever To Settle For "Holds"

Rafael Soriano disappointed his fantasy owners yesterday when he signed the largest set-up man contract in the history of the game.  If you owned Soriano last year, you probably got him for a song and he proceeded to be the most productive closer in the game.  In many keeper leagues it would be possible to redouble that value in 2011...if Soriano had signed on to be somebody's closer.  Soriano chose instead to be Mariano Rivera's opening act.  There's nothing wrong with that.  He'll get to pitch for a competitive team.  He'll be in line, potentially, to be Mo's replacement (if he ever retires).  And, in the interim, he'll be content to take home around $12 Million a year.  Not too shabby.

In most fantasy formats, however, Soriano is now all but irrelevant, joining a cast which includes Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps: all established closers who will spend 2011 as set-up men.  From a baseball perspective, this is a very encouraging trend.  More and more GMs have realized that it's just as rational (if not more rational) to pay for a dominant reliever who pitches whenever the game is on the line in the 7th and 8th, as it is to pay seven figures to a guy who only takes the ball in save situations.  From a fantasy perspective, this sucks.

There were already few enough guys who were consistent candidates for 30+ saves.  Now several of them are chasing "holds" instead.  When the 2011 season begins, at least a third of the 30 MLB teams will be featuring a pitcher for whom this is their first Opening Day with the closer label.  Several may elect to go with that infamous strategy which is fantasy kryptonite: closer-by-committee.

Some will be apt to tell you that this widespread uncertainty is reason to invest heavily in one of the few truly established closing options, guys like Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Jose Valverde.  I disagree.  I hate paying for saves.  With so many bullpens in flux, more cheap saves are coming into the league than ever before.  Besides Soriano (48 SV), here are some guys you could've had for next to nothing in 2010:

Matt Capps (42 SV), Kevin Gregg (37 SV), Leo Nunez (30 SV), John Axford (24 SV), Matt Lindstrom (23 SV), Chris Perez (23 SV), Octavio Dotel (22 SV), Jon Rauch (21 SV), Brandon Lyon (20 SV), Alfredo Simon (17 SV), Juan Gutierrez (15 SV), Fernando Rodney (14 SV), Koji Uehara (13 SV), Hong-Chih Kuo (12 SV), Manny Corpas (10 SV)

Just counting guys who went either undrafted or in the very final rounds of standard drafts, that's fifteen players with double-digit saves.  I'd be willing to bet there will be even more in 2011.  Let's take a look at the few of the franchises with the most uncertainty and discuss some of the candidates for closing duties.

Tampa Bay Rays:

The Rays have probably the best bullpen in baseball last season.  However, this offseason, they lost their four best releivers: Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler.  They also lost a couple innings-eaters in Randy Choate and Chad Qualls.  The additions Tampa Bay has made - Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta - are not exactly guys who've had late-inning success, so the new closer is almost certainly coming from within the organization.

J. P. Howell will get a crack at it, if he's healthy.  Howell was very good during a limited tenure as Tampa Bay's closer during the second half of 2009 (16 SV, 3.02 ERA).  However, he missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury.  He may not be ready to pitch again at all until May or June, and even then nobody can predict how his surgically-repaired rotator cuff will respond.

The Padres converted Mike Ekstrom into a reliever during the 2008 season.  In two full seasons at AAA, Ekstrom posted a 2.24 ERA.  Promoted in the final month of 2010, Ekstrom looked fine doing mop-up work for the Rays (3.31 ERA in 16 IP).  However, Ekstrom has never been a closer at any level and doesn't have prototypical closer stuff (6.8 K/9 at AAA).

With Joe Maddon, anything is possible.  Maddon is notorious for going against the conventional wisdom, especially in his bullpen management.  In the past, for brief periods, he featured top-flight starters like David Price and Matt Garza at closer.  Maddon could consider rehashing that trick with Jake McGee.  McGee is one of the Rays top pitching prospects and, after a solid run at AA in 2010, he's probably not far from being major-league ready.  However, there's currently no room in the rotation.  The Rays gave McGee a quick audition in relief at the end of last year.  He posted a 0.52 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 innings at AAA and a 1.80 ERA with 6 K in five innings in the bigs.  Obviously, that's an extremely small sample, but he's got the kind of power stuff (10.4 K/9 in his professional career) that one likes to see in a closer.

Finally, don't sleep on Matt Gorgen.  Gorgen was the closer of the Montgomery Biscuits (AA) last year, piling up 22 saves and a 1.65 ERA in 45 innings.  If Gorgen can continue to build momentum at AAA and the closer carousel doesn't go well in the early months of the season, Maddon could be very interested in a guy who has spend his entire pro career closing games, has a solid minor-league track record, and a power arm (10.1 K/9 in minors).

Atlanta Braves:

Some, including myself, aren't fully convinced that Billy Wagner is really retiring, just two saves away from becoming all-time leader for left-handed relievers and fourth overall, behind just Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith.

If Wagner really doesn't come back for a 16th season, the Braves may be forced to turn to one of their other flame-throwing southpaws, either Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty.  Both Venters and O'Flaherty were excellent last seasons.  Venters (1.95 ERA, 93 K, 83 IP) even garnered a little Rookie of the Year consideration, which is a hard thing to do as a middle reliever.  Both will be 26-years-old in 2011.  O'Flaherty has more experience, but Venters would probably get the first crack at the job.

The closer of the future in Atlanta is Craig Kimbrel.  Many are assuming that future is now.  Kimbrel throws fire (14.4 K/9 in minors).  He moved quickly through the minors as a closer and posted solid numbers in his late-season audition (0.44 ERA, 40 K, 21 IP).  Fredi Gonzalez may indeed be comfortable handing him the job straightaway.  However, I expect Atlanta will be a little cautious following Kimbrel's NLDS.  When Wagner was sidelined, they asked Kimbrel to take over the ninth and in a critical Game 3 appearance he got a little ruffled and ended up taking the loss.  Bobby Cox was alwasy reluctant to use young pitchers in the 9th.  Don't be surprised if Gonzalez follows that pattern as well.

With that in mind, one probably shouldn't ignore the presence of George Sherrill.  Sherrill quietly joined the Braves bullpen this offseason.  He is the only pitcher in Atlanta with substantial closing experience (52 SV between '08 and '09).  He had a tough year in L.A. in 2010, but he's one of those unflappable reliever that managers generally love to use in the 9th.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Most are assuming that 37-year-old  Octavio Dotel has been signed to be the Blue Jays closer.  I, personally, think that's an unwise assumption.  Dotel hasn't spent a full season closing games since 2004.  His last temporary stint as a closer (during the first half of 2010 with Pittsburgh) was sufficiently underwhelming (4.28 ERA).

The Jays have other options.  Their best reliever from last season was Shawn Camp (2.99 ERA in 72 IP).  Camp's numbers have gotten substantially better every years since 2007.  He may be due for a shot.

Jason Frasor, who began the season as Toronto's closer, after posting great numbers in 2009, should also be on your radar.  Frasor lost the job to Kevin Gregg after blowing two of his first five opportunities, but he really found his rhythm again in the second half.  He had a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP after the All-Star Break.

Also, watch for Alan Farina, who the Jays recently added to their 40-man roster.  Farina, drafted in '07, could move quickly in '11.  He compiled a 1.29 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9 between two levels in 2010.

Chicago White Sox:

Bobby Jenks will be pitching for a different color of Sox in 2011, for the first time in his career, so, for the first time since 2005, the ChiSox are auditioning closers.

The Vegas money would probably be on Matt Thornton, who, in three seasons as Jenks primary set-up man, posted a 2.70 ERA and 245 K in 200 IP.  The only thing working against Thornton is the fact that he's far more valuable doing exactly what he's been doing for the last three years.  His rubber arm, his ability shut down the league's top lefties, and work out of james with inherited runners are all talents that would be slightly compromised by reserving him exclusively for save situations.

Instead, the Sox could hand the job over to Chris Sale, their 2010 draft pick who went almost directly to the major leagues.  After being drafted in June, Sale sailed through the minors and still managed to get 21 appearances in Chicago, where he posted a 1.93 ERA with 32 K.  Ozzie Guillen handed Jenks the closer job when he was just a rookie, so don't assume he'll be hesitant to put that pressure on Sale.

R.I.P. 2010 White Sox

Way back in March, I very tentatively predicted the White Sox to win a tight AL Central race.  As it turned out, I wasn't terribly far off, but in early June I was feeling pretty silly.  At the start of play on June 9th, the Sox were 9.5 games back, trailing both the Twins and Tigers and 9 games under .500.  They looked a lot like their crosstown rivals - old legs, slow bats, and tired arms - and Ozzie's preseason promise, that they would return to the style that led to their championship in 2005, seemed like mere posturing.  But Ozzie kept telling the naysayers, "There's a lot of season left."

From the middle of June all the way to the All-Star Break, the White Sox became, to everybody's great surprise, the best team in baseball.  First they had a modest four-game winning streak, their first of the year. Than they reeled off eleven in a row.  Than, only a week later, nine more.  All told, from the 9th of June to the 15th of July they went 25-5 and they took over first place, where they remained for more than a month.

However, with the exception of a seven-game winning streak earlier in the month, the wheels have completely come off down the stretch.  The Sox have played pretty much .500 ball for the last six weeks and you can't make up ground on a good team like the Twins playing .500 ball.  And you especially can't keep losing to that team, as the Sox have done all year long, capped off by a three-game sweep at the Cell this week.  All told, Chicago went 5-14 this season against their division rival, easily their lowest winning percentage against any team.

Although they aren't heading back to the postseason, I think Ozzie, Ken Williams, and the rest of the franchise can be very pleased with their performance in 2010.  They will certainly finish with a winning record, and may approach 90 wins.  "Ozzie-ball," loosely characterized as the emphasis on durable starting pitching, aggressive baserunning, and swinging for the fences, has had the predicted Renaissance.  Juan Pierre currently leads the major leagues with 55 steals, Alex Rios is 10th with 33, and   Omar Vizquel, Alexei Ramirez, and Andruw Jones will all finish in the double digits.  Paul Konerko has had a resurgent, MVP-caliber season, hitting .322 with 36 HR and 104 RBI.  Rios, Ramirez, Jones, and Carlos Quentin have also chipped in considerably in the power department.  The Sox accomplished a relatively rare feat, finished in the top five in the AL in both homers (4th) and steals (3rd).

Perhaps more important than anything they do on offense, however, is the fact that the ChiSox staff consistently pitches deep into games.  The front three of Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, though not among the league leaders in wins or ERA, having all been solid workhorses.  None have missed starts and all are on pace for 200+ innings.  The ability of this rotation to keep their team in games is evidenced by the fact they are fourth in the AL in relief wins, even though they twelfth in the league in relief innings.

Ken Williams once again proved himself to be one of the most creative, competitive, and effective GMs in the game.  Last season he gambled on Alex Rios, taking the outfielder's massive contract off waivers from Toronto.  Rios played horribly for the Sox down the stretch during '09, but this year he has been among their biggest contributors and, at 29, he future once again looks pretty bright.  Pierre, Vizquel, and Jones were added for a combined salary under $5 Million and all have played key roles.  The White Sox would not have hung around the race for this long without them.  A similar claim could be made for the cheap veteran pitchers Williams brought onboard last season, but who really paid off this year, J. J. Putz and Freddy Garcia.  As the pennant race neared, Williams was aggressive, as usual, netting Edwin Jackson, who has been outstanding since his arrival (3-1, 2.94 ERA) and Manny Ramirez, who hasn't been able to rekindle the September magic his brought with him to L.A. in 2008.

Sure, Williams wasn't perfect.  Mark Teahen and Mark Kotsay were marked busts.  As was Jake Peavy. But, as is common with Williams, he hedges his bets well enough that the franchise will not be sabotaged heading forward, even though the current roster is fairly expensive and fairly old.  The Sox have almost a $105 Million payroll this season, but only $75 Million committed next year.

As such, it will be a busy offseason for Kenny.  The Sox have a solid core to build around.  The rotation is set (Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy [hopefully]).  Rios, Quentin, Ramirez, and Gordon Beckham give the lineup a solid young foundation.  Bobby Jenks, Chris Sale, and Matt Thornton will continue to pitch the late innings.  There are, however, three big decisions:

1.)  Paul Konerko will be a free agent.  The White Sox longest tenured player will probably finish in the top five in MVP voting this season, for the first time in his career.  Such production was a steal at $12 Million for 2010.  Konerko is, however, 35-years-old.  He's never been particularly good in the field and the footraces between him and Jim Thome are the stuff of South Side legends.  How much can the White Sox commit to the "face of the franchise" when he is coming off what will almost surely be the best year of his career.  Maybe the Yankee's can pay Jeter for "what he's meant to the franchise," as many are predicting they will, but with less than half as much payroll, the Sox don't have such a luxury.

2.)  J. J. Putz will also be going on the free agent market.  After a disastrous year with the Mets, Putz regained his form in Chicago.  In all likelihood, he will be looking to get another opportunity to close, as he did with great success for the Mariners from '06-'08.  He is the only player in the Sox bullpen with closing experience, beside Bobby Jenks, the current closer, whose performance has declined dramatically over the last three seasons.  The rotund fireballer, Jenks, was once a fan-favorite in Chicago, as he got the last out in the 2005 World Series and had a record-setting streak of perfect innings a couple years later.  He needs only 28 more saves to become the franchise leader, passing Bobby Thigpen.  Don't be surprised, however, if Kenny Williams makes the unsentimental decision of trading (or even releasing) Jenks this offseason, rather than paying an expensive arbitration award for a relief pitcher whose ERA is 4.44.  That could free him up to negotiate with Putz.

3.)  Konerko and Jenks are obviously more talented, but no single player encompasses the soul of White Sox baseball during the Ozzie Guillen era quite like A. J. Pierzynski.  Pierzynski clearly gets off a little on being "the most hated player in the game" and his energy and doggedness are clearly contagious.  And, he is the picture of consistency: good defense, decent power, decent average, and, most importantly, utterly dependable, never making a trip to the D.L.  When the season began, it looked all but certain that it would be Pierzynki's last as a White Sox.  Chicago's top prospect, Tyler Flowers, was coming off a monstrous season at AA.  However, Flowers progress slowed dramatically at AAA, as his OPS dropped more than 200 points, and now one has to question whether he's ready to fill A. J.'s shoes in 2011.  

A Guide To September Viewing (9/6-9/16)

For those of you utilizing MLB.tv or MLB Extra Innings, here are some series you might want to mark your calender for:

Monday, 9/6 - Thursday, 9/9: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

This four-game series began yesterday with a win for the Rockies, led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez.  That win was Colorado's fourth in a row and brought them within 4.5 games of the Padres and 5 of the Wild Card leading Phillies.  It doesn't take a tremendous memory to recall the Rockies tendency towards September momentum.  Meanwhile, the central-leading Reds need to fight off complacency and assure they don't allow the Cardinals to climb back into the race.

Thursday, 9/9 - Sunday, 9/12: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

The Padres finally put an end to their prolonged losing streak on Monday against the Dodgers, but now hold only a game advantage over the Giants, who have won five of their last six.  Regardless of what transpires on Tuesday and Wednesday, the division lead will be on the line when these two teams face off at PETCO this weekend.  With the Padres young rotation starting to show its fatigue, it's difficult to argue that they have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups.  The climactic battle is undoubtedly the highlight, as Tim Lincecum faces Mat Latos on Sunday afternoon.

Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Things don't get any easier for the Friars, as they begin a ten-game road trip by heading to Denver.  At 44-22, the Rockies boast the second-best home record in the NL (behind Atlanta).  To make matters worse (for San Diego, that is), the Rockies have won eleven of the first fifteen games in their season series, including a sweep in San Diego to begin the month, so they don't exactly head to the high altitude brimming with confidence.  It's not hard to imagine them leaving Colorado in third place.

Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

Both teams seem safely on course for postseason berths, but with seven games left against each other, the division, and home-field advantage, are still on the line.  The series kicks off with stellar pitching battle between two Cy Young contenders, C. C. Sabathia and David Price.

Tuesday, 9/14 - Thursday, 9/16: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Assuming the Sox can maintain their winning ways, having strung together seven in a row going into tonight, this could be a battle for the last remaining AL playoff spot.  The Twins are saddled with injuries, but have still managed to win at an impressive clip, recently sweeping the Rangers.  They've dominated the season series up to this point, taking ten of fifteen, but far more will be riding on this series than any that came before it.

The State of The Hippeaux

As you've probably noted, the site has been on hiatus for most of the last two months, as I've been in the process of relocating to Long Beach, CA, as well as dealing with a particularly busy summer, personally and professionally.  This hiatus has no doubt resulted in the loss of a substantial portion of the loyal readership I've fostered over the last few years, and for that I'm certainly sorry.  However, this does give me an opportunity to perform a moderate redesign and refocus.  Although a continued hectic schedule will probably prevent me from maintaining the posting frequency which preceded this hiatus, I will be covering the pennant races and postseason in some detail, as well as the hot stove and fantasy preseason, as in the past.  Again, I apologize for the delay and thank all those who emailed me to voice their concern.  Now, a few observations on the time I missed...

I've been waiting all season for a freefall from the Braves and Padres, two teams who I doubted going into the season and saw cause for calling "flukish" throughout the first half.  As both are certainly headed for 85-90 win seasons, clearly I have cause to alter that estimation, however, we are finally seeing the chinks in their armor.

San Diego, clearly the most surprising franchise of the 2010 season, not long ago looked like the sure-fire NL West champs, but an eight-game losing streak has brought them back within three games of the Giants and they now face a particularly grueling schedule.  The Friars have only one series left against a losing franchise (four games against the Cubs at the end of September), while they have twelve games against the two teams closest on their heels (Giants & Rockies) and seven against other contenders (Reds & Cardinals).  Their vaunted young rotation, clearly the reason for their unexpected run this season, may also end up being the cause of their demise.  Clayton Richard and Mat Latos are already well beyond their career highs in innings and Wade LeBlanc will soon join them.  The wear and tear is starting to show.  The team's ERA has risen in every month to a high of 3.71 in August.  With a mediocre lineup, even after the infusion of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick, the Padres cannot afford to give up four runs a game, especially against teams like the Giants, Cardinals, and Rockies.  Unfortunately for San Diego's faithful, I think the selling of postseason tickets may have been a little premature.

In Atlanta, the issue is not so much that the Braves are diving (they still won eighteen games in August), as that the two-time NL champion Phillies are finally healthy and appear to be starting their annual September streak.  They've won seven of their last eight, now sit just one game back of Atlanta, and are looking forward to a fairly soft September, as their only remaining games against contenders two series against the Braves.  If the Braves do get caught (and I think they inevitably will), they are still very much alive in the Wild Card.  A serious cause for concern, however, is the Braves 29-38 record on the road, which is where they will be spending most of the next month.

In the American League we may be seeing one of the most anticlimactic pennant races in recent memory, as Boston, despite being on pace for 92 wins, is now seven games back of Tampa Bay in the Wild Card, and Texas long ago wrapped up the AL West.  Our only hope for late-season drama comes in the Central, where the Manny-infused White Sox are four games back of the Twins.  With Justin Morneau still out indefinitely with concussion issues and Kevin Slowey also shelves, Minnesota does have some chinks in its armor.  Since the All-Star Break, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Denard Span all of OPSs well under 800.  J. J. Hardy has been in and out of the lineup.  On the other hand, Minnesota's front four - Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and Scott Baker - have combined to go 21-6 since the break, so modest run-scoring has usually been more than enough.  The three-game set in Chicago in the middle of September could prove crucial.

Here are my postseason seeding predictions:

AL:

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers

NL:

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Not Quite "Done"

It happens almost every year: an American League team which seems left for dead in the season's opening months, surges forward during June to assert themselves, at least temporarily, among the contenders.  One reason for this phenomenon is that the month is laden with interleague play.  The AL has dominated interleague matchups for most of the last decade.  The interleague schedule is tremendously unbalanced, so solid AL franchises who get soft draws have an opportunity to gain ground on their less fortunate league rivals.

The result is that it is often difficult to judge whether an outstanding June is the result of a team truly coming together in a sustainable fashion, or merely taking advantage of the weak links on the senior circuit.  Last season, the Los Angeles Angels used June to assert their dominance.  Dogged by injuries and the tragic death of Nick Adenhart, the Angels struggled to achieve a .500 record during April and May, but a 17-9 month of June allowed them to surge to the front of the AL West, where they remained, finishing with 97 wins, second best in all of baseball, and eventually making it to the ALCS.  

On the other hand, in 2008, Detroit used a 19-8 run in June to get within striking distance of the AL Central-leading White Sox.  The remainder of the season was not nearly as kind, as the Tigers went 32-47 in the second half and finished in last place.

This season, no less than five AL franchises have caught fire in June.  Which of them will we still be talking about at the end of July?

Boston Red Sox (Sustainability Grade: A+)

Will we ever learn?  Every year one of the "Beasts of the East" has a rough time of it in the early going and we declare them finito.  And every year we are forced to bite our tongues.  This season, Boston was half a dozen games out a the end of April and many Red Sox fans were ready to throw in the towel.  Since that point, they've been the best team in the division and now find themselves comfortably positioned for an exciting pennant race: 2.5 back of the Yanks and only a half-game back of the Wild Card-leading Rays.  

There's no reason to doubt Boston.  Yes, they've gotten rich against the NL, going 10-4 in interleague play so far, but they've done it against the best the opposing league has to offer, playing six games against the Phillies, three against the Dodgers, and three against the Rockies.  They now possess the fourth-best record in all of baseball, despite the fact that they've gotten little contribution from Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, Mike Cameron, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, all of whom are expected to be available throughout the second half.  It's impossible to predict who from among the so-called "Beasts" will be left out of October, but the Red Sox are not going to make it easy on their rivals.  

Texas Rangers (Sustainability Factor: B+)

Texas has played fairly well throughout the season, so their situation is slightly different from other teams on this list, but they have gone absolutely bonkers this month, currently riding a ten-game winning streak.  They've also won thirteen of their last fourteen and have not lost a series this month. 

Their interleague schedule is one of the softest around.  Their streak has been compiled against the Brewers, Marlins, Astros, and Pirates, with three more home games against Houston still to come.  They didn't play a single NL team with a record above .500 and Florida is the only one who even comes close.

That said, Texas is clearly for real.  They have the third-best run differential in baseball, trailing only the Yankees and Rays.  They've won series against the Rays, Tigers, and Angels, and are currently sitting on a 13-5 record in their own division.

Los Angeles Angels (Sustainability Factor: B+)

The Angels were in last place early in May, but have made a familiar climb back into the divisional race, now standing just 3.5 games back of Texas.  The Angels did not benefit from the soft underbelly of the NL Central the way that their division rival did, as they played six against the Dodgers, three against the Cardinals, and have three to come against the Rockies, so their 9-5 interleague record is pretty impressive.

The Angels have once again dealt with some tough breaks.  Kendry Morales is out for the season.  Erick Aybar could also miss significant time.  However, there real problems are a disastrous bullpen and a stagnant offense, which has not been about to score at will the way it did in 2009.  There's a strong chance players like Hideki Matsui and Juan Rivera will be much more productive in the second half, which could be enough to keep the Angels in the race, but don't be surprised if they are one of the most active teams at the deadline.  They will have flexibility in a way the bankrupt Rangers don't.     

Chicago White Sox (Sustainability Grade: C+)

On the third of June, the ChiSox were eight games under .500 and 8.5 back in the Central.  Rumors swirled about possible trades and maybe a precipitous end to the Ozzie Guillen era.  Now, the White Sox are three games above .500 and only 2.5 back.  They've won nine in a row and fifteen out of their last nineteen, including eight of nine on the road.  

Although the White Sox did just complete a sweep of the first-place Braves, they really got rich this June off the Nationals, Pirates, and Cubs, compiling an insane 13-2 record in interleague play, with another series against the Cubs still to come.  So, it is understandably tempting to call "bullshit" on the White Sox recent hot streak.  They have won only one series all year against an AL contender (New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, and Los Angeles).  However, they will play 24 games against the Twins and Tigers in the second half, which should certainly be treated as "opportunity."  

Seattle Mariners (Sustainability Factor: D-)

The Mariners were a popular preseason choice to win the AL West.  They currently sit thirteen games back and, until recently, seemed on the verge of throwing in the towel.  A six-game winning streak could be enough to at least delay the Cliff Lee trade talks.  Seattle swept the Twins earlier this month and recently swept the Reds as well, both first-place teams.  In between, however, they lost series to St. Louis and San Diego.  

There are causes for optimism.  Chone Figgins has busted out of his season-long slump.  Ichiro has been dominant.  The rotation has been consistently fantastic.  However, their run differential this month is actually worst than it was in April and May, because basically everybody else stinks.  They have won only one series this season against a divisional opponent (Oakland), compiling a 3-16 record against the Rangers and Angels.  This team isn't going anywhere...not this year.

What happens in April stays in April? (Part Deux)

On Opening Day I introduced you to ten "borderline contenders," teams with moderately realistic postseason ambitions, for whom I believed April baseball really did matter.  Their record wasn't really the issue, so much as unproven aspects of their roster, the performance of which might provide insight into the team's long-term prospects.  These are the teams I've been following most closely this month and though May is still a week away, I'm prepared to offer some modestly confident analysis.

Arizona Diamondbacks: B

They are at the bottom of the their division at 7-9, but the D-Backs remain a very intriguing team.  They are fifth in the NL in scoring, despite the fact that their best player, Justin Upton, has gotten off to a terrible start (640 OPS).  Stephen Drew (902 OPS) and Kelly Johnson (1088 OPS) have been great, and Chris Young has shown improvement.  Arizona has power throughout the lineup, as well as a depth of talent in players like Gerardo Parra, Brandon Allen, Chris Snyder, and Cole Gillespie, which has already proved important following injuries to Miguel Montero and Conor Jacksion.

If the offense continues to rake, they D-Backs will be sneaky good, because Dan Haren isn't going to have a 5.19 ERA for very long and Edwin Jackson is looking sharp, despite modest results (1-1, 3.81 ERA).  He went eight innings against St. Louis on Wednesday and only threw 106 pitches.  His WHIP has remained low (1.23) and he's throwing in the high 90s, which makes for a pretty potent combination.  The progress of Brandon Webb and the development of Ian Kennedy weight heavily on this team.  If the rotation gets just a little deeper, the D-Backs could make the Dodgers and Rockies very uncomfortable.

What happens in April, stays in April? (Opening Day Primer)

Every year, around the middle of May, when the Yankees are sitting around or even well under .500 a few members of the New York media freak out.  They call for benchings, trades, and firings and for the obvious necessity of moving Joba Chamberlain to or from the bullpen.  Inevitably, however, Yankees management ignore the panicked Chicken Littles and by the All-Star Break they are right where the need to be, neck-and-neck with the Red Sox.

The Yankees, the Phillies, and the Rockies are all notoriously slow starters, perhaps because they deal with some cold weather in the spring, or maybe because they employ some key players - Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, etc. - who are known for having a rough time of it in April.  But these teams will not judge their seasons based on what happens in the first eight weeks.  Come August, I have no doubt they will all be in the midst of the pennant race.

New York (AL), Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Minnesota, and Los Angeles (AL), all of whom, coincidently, made the playoffs last season, can afford early inconsistencies with the knowledge that, barring catastrophic bad luck, they have all the pieces in place to be competitive over the long haul.   Many of the other  dozen or so franchises with postseason aspirations, however, will sink or swim based on what they can prove in April and May, not only in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of players stepping up to fill crucial roles.

So, while the casual fan finds April baseball games less than enthralling because they seem inconsequential in comparison with the high stakes of the NBA and NHL playoffs, I'll be closely watching these teams in the early weeks to distinguish the difference between contender and pretender...

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Somebody In the AL Central Will Attain the Glory of 85 Wins

For two straight seasons it has taken 163 games to decide the winner in the AL Central.  And, or two years running, the Central has been the only division in the American League to send a team to the postseason with less than 90 wins.  While the 163rd game is one of the rarest and most beautiful things in baseball, it wouldn't totally surprise me if we had the pleasure of another this October.  Every division except the NL East boasts at least three teams with a reasonable shot at the title.  Of these, the AL Central may be the toughest to call, a supposition supported by the fact that Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections predicted a three-way tie between the White Sox, Tigers, and Twins, each with 80 wins apiece.

While I'd be mighty surprised if nobody in the division managed a .500 record, I think it's safe to say that 90 wins won't be necessary.  All three of the "contenders" have abundant and apparent shortcomings.

The reigning champs, the Twins, finished 12th in the AL in rotational ERA in 2009.  While they went a long way towards fixing their lineup depth problems (which became so apparent in the ALDS) by adding Orlando Hudson and J. J. Hardy, there is still an obvious hole at 3B and they are only an injury away from again deploying the likes of Brendan Harris (672 OPS), Matt Tolbert (611 OPS), and Alexi Casilla (538 OPS).  

The Tigers, following their schizophrenic offseason, don't look a whole lot different from the team that it took 162 games plus twelve innings to eliminate in '09.  Like Minnesota, they've got severe lineup depth problems, with automatic outs like Gerald Laird and Adam Everett, as well as unknown commodities like Scott Sizemore and Austin Jackson.  The bullpen is also a big question mark.  Jose Valverde is an improvement at closer, but it remains to be seen how Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, and Phil Coke will adjust to late-inning roles.

In Chicago, one of the big issues is age, particularly on offense.  The White Sox have four regulars who are 33 or older.  They are asking Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones to step into more prominent roles than they have held the past couple seasons in Los Angeles and Texas, and will need at least one more strong campaign from Paul Konerko and A. J. Pierzynski.  Carlos Quentin and Gordon Beckham be critical top-of-the-order hitters.  They certainly have the talent to perform in that capacity, but not yet the track record.

When looking at three equally flawed franchises I am tempted to say that this division will be determined largely by luck (which is why the Joe Nathan injury looms so large in Minnesota).  None of these teams have tremendous depth on their roster, so even minor injuries can expose significant holes.  It's impossible to guess where those injuries will surface, so instead, for the purposes of my predictions, I looked at management.

What are you up to, Kenny Williams?

The Hot Stove seasons has barely gotten off the ground for the vast majority of teams, but White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, has quietly renovated his franchise this November, with a trade and three veteran free agent signings. Based on the content of these acquisitions, however, White Sox fans have to be wondering: what is he up to?

This past week, in the span of 48 hours, Williams signed two players who have combined for 21 Gold Gloves, easily the most of any active duo. However, both Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel are in the twilight of their careers, as demonstrated by the fact that both spent to majority of 2009 on the Rangers bench. They weren't exactly massively productive in their limited capacity, either. Vizquel managed just a 660 OPS in his 195 plate appearances. Jones had a strong showing during the season's first four months (891 OPS, 17 HR), but he really struggled down the stretch (488 OPS, 0 HR in August and September).

The fact which should not be ignored it that the Rangers had a resurgent season in 2009. Vizquel and Jones were a major part of an improved culture in Texas as apparently popular clubhouse presences. Like Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Ken Griffey Jr., they proved that future Hall of Famers (or borderline Hall of Famers, depending on your perspective) bring more to a franchise than just what they do on the field. Omar not only contributed over 400 innings of errorless defense at shortstop, second, and third base, but served as mentor for Elvis Andrus and, to a lesser extent, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler, helping to solidify a previously porous infield. The White Sox, in Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham, have a pair of middle infielders who, like Andrus and Kinsler, have incredible defensive tools, but are still a little rough around the edges. Vizquel will be asked to pass along his considerable wisdom.

Similarly, although Jones acted primarily as a DH in '09, and will probably spend much of his time in that role again in '10, he is one of the greatest defensive outfielders of all time. The White Sox outfield defense has been atrocious the past couple years. Any influence he exerts on Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and whomever the White Sox bring in complete their outfield, could only bring improvement.

It would have appeared, based on the decision to part ways with Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Dewayne Wise, and Jose Contreras, that Williams was committed to making the White Sox younger in 2010. The acquisition of Vizquel (43) and Jones (33), along with the retention of Mark Kotsay (34) and the trading of Chris Getz (26) and Josh Fields (27), pushes defiantly in the other direction. So, what is the upside?

First of all, cost. Even if Jones reaches all the incentives in his contract, he, Kotsay, and Vizquel will not cost Chicago any more than $4.5 Million in 2010. According to FanGraphs, the trio posted about $6.6 Million worth of production in 2009, so this is likely a pretty safe investment. Even safer when you consider that none is signed past next season.

The White Sox have every incentive to go for it in 2010. They have an aging core and 2011 will bring with it a series of free agent decisions which will likely lead to a complete and total overhaul of the club. After next season Paul Konerko, A. J. Pierzynski, Freddy Garcia, and Mark Teahen will become free agents. The following year they will be joined on the open market by Mark Buehrle, Bobby Jenks, and Alexei Ramirez. While in 2009, Chicago still retained eight players who had won rings with them in 2005, by 2012, the White Sox may bear zero resemblance to that hyper-popular team.

By solidifying his bench early in the offseason, Williams allows himself to concentrate exclusively on the White Sox major needs for the remainder of the winter, namely outfield and designated hitter. He knows exactly what kind of flexibility he has on the remainder of the roster and the payroll and won't have to do any desperate maneuvering late in the spring.

By the time the arbitration period ends, the White Sox will probably have about $85 Million committed to 21 or 22 players on their major-league roster. Over the last four seasons they have maintained a payroll of $100-110 Million. They have plenty of options moving up through the system to provide depth on the pitching staff, so if the White Sox ownership, led by Jerry Reinsdorf, is willing to back him, Williams may be able to commit as much as $25 Million to improving the lineup. If that's the case, then the White Sox could still make a serious run at the cream of the free agent crop (Jason Bay makes some sense for them, as would Chone Figgins) or could continue to covet other team's albatrosses, as they did with Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. Williams has plenty of flexibility, because Konerko, Teahen, or Quentin could easily be moved to DH if the White Sox added a better defensive option at first, third, or in left. Williams also has the luxury of considering whether to go after one BIG fish (Bay, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, etc.) or two smaller ones, as Jones and Kotsay could act as a decent DH/1B/OF platoon if they were hitting low in the lineup.

Although Willaims approach thusfar certainly betrays a considerably amount of risk, it also suggests that he has a concerted plan and aims to put a very competitive team on the field in the AL Central. Minnesota is struggling to re-sign Joe Mauer and patchwork its decimated rotation. The Tigers are considering blowing up the expensive, underperforming squad which has broken Detroit's heart in each of the past two seasons. The Indians are probably at least a year away from seeing the fruits of the rebuilding campaign which shipped away C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez. And, Kansas City, well...the Royals are acting like the most mismanaged franchise in baseball, as usual. Which means the White Sox look to me like the team with the best laid plans for taking their division in 2010.

Offseason Prospectus #3: The Chicago White Sox

Kenny Williams, as usual, wasted no time getting his offseason started. Within a week of the end of the World Series he had already made a trade (netting Mark Teahen from Kansas City for Josh Fields and Chris Getz), resigned a veteran (Mark Kotsay), and declined the team option on another (Jermaine Dye). The trade, which surprised a few people, since it included a guy (Fields) who hit 23 HR for the White Sox at the age of 24 in 2007, seems designed to give the White Sox flexibility (Teahen can play 3B, 1B, OF, and even a little 2B) and unload a couple fading prospects who will be promised many more "developmental" at-bats with the Royals than they would've gotten with the Sox. Getz and Fields proved in '09 that they weren't really ready to be everyday players, at least not on a contending team, and the White Sox are, most definitely, one of the dozen or so franchises who enters every season with the intention to win it all.

Free Agents:

Ramon Castro (34) C

Bartolo Colon (37) RHSP

Octavio Dotel (36) RHRP

Jermaine Dye (36) RF

Scott Podsednik (34) OF

Arbitration-Eligible:

D. J. Carrasco (33) RHRP

John Danks (25) RHSP

Bobby Jenks (29) RHRP

Tony Pena (28) RHRP

Carlos Quentin (27) LF/DH

Mark Teahen (28) 3B/UT

ETA 2010?:

Tyler Flowers (24) C

Lucas Harrell (25) RHSP

Dan Hudson (23) RHSP

Brent Lillibridge (26) INF

Jhonny Nunez (24) RHRP

Clevelan Santeliz (23) RHRP

Dayan Viciedo (21) 3B

In 2009 the White Sox finished below .500 (just barely, .488) for only the second time in the last decade. Thanks mostly to their long-awaited World Series victory in 2005, the popular tandem of manager, Ozzie Guillen, and GM, Kenny Williams, will likely be steering the Pale Stockings for the foreseeable future. And, despite Ozzie's quirky, occasionally offensive personality, there is a lot to like about this South Side administration. Williams is not risk-adverse. He is willing to gamble. Sometimes those gambles pay off, as in his acquisition of Carlos Quentin prior to the 2008 season. Other times, as in the waiver claim on Sixty Million Dollar Man, Alex Rios, and the trade for Jake Peavy this fall, they don't...at least not immediately.

What Williams and Guillen clearly recognized this past season, however, was that the core which won the '05 championship and took them back to the playoffs in '08, has aged considerably, past the point of viability in many cases. The 2010 team will be considerably younger. Gone are Jim Thome (39), Jermaine Dye (36), Jose Contreras (38), and, probably, free agents Octavio Dotel (36) and Scott Podsednik (34). The new White Sox will be built around Gordon Beckham (23), Alexei Ramirez (28), Quentin (27), Rios (29), Peavy (29), John Danks (25), and Gavin Floyd (27); and led, of course, by the longtime "faces of the franchise," Mark Buehrle (31) and Paul Konerko (34). Clearly, this is a team which can easily compete in the tightly-packed AL Central. With rebounds from Peavy, Quentin, and Rios, and a couple smart moves this winter, they could match-up pretty well with the big boys of the American League.

Williams still has a few questions to answer. Center-field has been a black hole since Aaron Rowand was traded prior to the 2006 season. The good defenders (Brian Anderson, Dewayne Wise, etc.) were automatic outs, and the decent hitters (Scott Podsednik, Nick Swisher, etc.) left serious gaps in the alleys, which is a major problem when your top three starting pitchers (Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd) are all in the top 25 in the AL in fly-ball rate.

Alex Rios was brought in to help solidify the defense, while, hopefully, providing significantly better than the 530 OPS he posted after joining the team in '09. The departures of Thome and Dye give Williams flexibility. He could move the oft-injured and defensively mediocre Quentin to DH or continue to play him in left. He could go after a true centerfielder like Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp, who combined with Rios in right would dramatically help Chicago's rotation. If the brass are willing to spend, the White Sox could even make an offer on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Or, they could go back to a relatively inexpensive Thome-esque veteran, somebody like Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, or Gary Sheffield. Chicago definitely needs two OF/DH additions before the season begins, because with Fields in KC, they have no potential replacements within the system. That shouldn't necessarily be poor reflection on the White Sox system. OF/DH types are the most readily available players on the free agent market most years.

The Sox have used prospects as trade bait in recent years to an extent most teams in this era are reluctant to do, which is how they've been able to acquire major-league talent like Peavy, Thome, and Tony Pena. Somewhat surprisingly, there are still some very useful players coming up the pipeline. Teahen will hold down the third base job only until Dayan Viciedo proves himself ready. Even at the outset of 2010, he could get some competition from Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix. Williams likely sees Teahen as Mark DeRosa-lite, a guy who is a fair starter at several positions, but most useful as insurance against injuries and fatigue, a guy who's best served getting three or four starts a week.

The White Sox catcher of the future is Tyler Flowers. He could start sharing time with A. J. Pierzynski this coming season, depending largely on how the volatile Pierzynski responds. A. J. probably knows his memorable tenure in Chicago will be over when his contract expires next winter. A. J., know affectionately on the South Side as "Ass, Jack" could respond in one of two ways, either by treating Flowers as promising protege or potential saboteur. Want to make a bet?

The White Sox best youngsters are pitchers. They can safely part ways with Dotel and perhaps even consider trading Bobby Jenks (who is getting a bit expensive) knowing that D. J. Carrasco, Matt Thorton, and Tony Pena all have closer potential, and prospects Jhonny Nunez, Clevelan Santeliz, and Jon Link are ready to step into the middle innings. The White Sox Opening Day rotation is set, barring injury - Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Freddy Garcia - a very formidable staff, but if somebody struggles or falls ill, as almost inevitably happens, they have not only Clayton Richard, who posted a very admirable 9-5 record and 4.42 ERA as a starter in '09, but also Lucas Harrell and Dan Hudson. The Old Dominion alum, Hudson, drafted in '08, surged through the minors, seemingly getting better as he went, then made two decent starts (11 IP, 3 ER) with the big club in September. He will probably get the first crack at a rotation spot.

Finally, Williams and Guillen will have to figure out what to do at the top of the order. Assuming Quentin and Rios return to form, they will offer a lot of pop, alongside Konerko and Ramirez, in the middle of the lineup, but Chicago will need to put people on base in front of them. Gordon Beckham will likely hit second. He sees a fair number of pitches and doesn't strike out a lot, but he doesn't offer incredible speed or OBP. As such, the White Sox could help shape the market for this year's premier leadoff men, namely Chone Figgins and Johnny Damon, or they may got the cheap route and take a chance by trading for Juan Pierre or Wily Taveras.

Despite a somewhat disappointing finish in '09, it's not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Juan Pierre (L)

2B Gordon Beckham (R)

LF Carlos Quentin (R)

1B Paul Konerko (R)

DH Vladimir Guerrero (R) FA

RF Alex Rios (R)

C A. J. Pierzynski (L)

3B Mark Teahen (L)

SS Alexei Ramirez (R)

SP Mark Buehrle (L)

SP Jake Peavy (R)

SP John Danks (L)

SP Gavin Floyd (R)

SP Freddy Garcia (R)

CL Bobby Jenks (R)

SU J. J. Putz (R)

SU Tony Pena Jr. (R)

SU Scott Linebrink (R)

LOOGY Matt Thorton (L)

SWING Dan Hudson (R)

MOP Jhonny Nunez (R)

C Tyler Flowers (R)

IF Omar Vizquel (S)

IF/OF Mark Kotsay (L)

OF Andruw Jones (R)

Why is my team spending $5,000,000 on a middle reliever? (Part 1)

Regardless of your loyalties, if you're even a moderate baseball fan, at least once this year you've scratched your head while looking at the abysmal line of the Chicago White Sox in the morning's box scores. Last year the White Sox had the sixth best record in baseball, with 90 wins, even though they finished third in the AL Central and missed the playoffs. And, of course, the year before that they won the World Series. This year they are worse than the Royals...and the Rangers. Must've been a fire sale along the way somewhere, right? A Marlin-style, post-World Championship roster deconstruction? No, actually. They replaced Carl Everett with Jim Thome. They replaced Orlando Hernandez with Javier Vazquez. Both would seem to be upgrades. They did trade Freddy Garcia and Aaron Rowand to the Phillies without finding adequate replacements. John Danks has been O.K., better than Garcia in 2007. Center field has essentially been a black hole - the space where Chris Young should've been. But plenty of competitive lineups have holes (Detroit: Left Field, Cleveland: Third Base, etc.).

The real difference between 2005 and 2007 for the White Sox, besides improved competition from the rest of their division, is in the bullpen. Bobby Jenks remains, as dominant as ever at the back end, but between him and the very adequate starting rotation: nothing. In 2005 the White Sox had Dustin Hermanson, who began the season as a setup man for Shingo Takatsu, and converted 34 saves in 39 chances with a 2.04 ERA before losing his job to Shrek just before the playoffs. Neal Cotts (1.94), Cliff Politte (2.00), Damso Marte (3.73), and Luis Vizcaino (3.77) all made between 65 and 70 appearances. The Sox had half-a-dozen significant contributors out of the bullpen in their championship season - not including Takatsu, who logged 8 saves and 3 holds before being demoted and eventually let go. In 2006, the palehose 'pen was not nearly so dominant, but they still had some favorable performances. Politte (8.70) and Cotts (5.17) saw their ERAs sky-rocket, but still combined for 100 appearances. Their positions as reliable lefty-righty setup men were taken over by Mike MacDougal (1.80) and Matt Thorton (3.33). David Riske (3.93) gave them some quality innings and Brandon MacCarthy (4.68) was a workhorse with a team high in relief innings, as well as a couple of spot starts. In 2006, seven White Sox appeared 25 or more times. In 2007, the same thing can bet said, but none of those seven White Sox relievers (besides Jenks) with twenty or more games has an ERA under 4.35, and only two have kept themselves below 5.00. Nobody (again, besides Jenks) has logged fifty innings yet. The argument I appear to be making, circumspectly, is that more than their vaunted five-man rotation and Ozzie-ball offense, it was the bullpen that got the White Sox to the postseason in '05.

I will continue to argue that depth is the single most important factor in surviving the 162 game grind. Part of that depth should be in relief pitching. When you look at teams who are drastically underachieving or overachieving you'll usually find a correlation in the bullpen. Take, for instance, those pesky Kansas City Royals who recently moved in front of the Sox in the AL Central. Kansas City doesn't have a hitter with more than 16 HR or 52 RBI. No regular has an OPS over 800. Although Gil Meche (3.85) and Brian Bannister (3.27) have been a pretty good 1-2 punch in the rotation, Bannister is the only piece of the starting core with a winning record. The Royals are getting better, undoubtedly, but they still don't have whole lot to work with in the everyday lineup. What Kansas City does have is four relievers who have made more than fifty appearances already in 2007, none of which have an ERA higher than 3.87. That doesn't even include Octavio Dotel, who logged 11 saves for the Royals before getting traded to the Braves, or Zach Greinke, who between starting assignments pitched 53 relief innings, recording 55 strikeouts, and a 3.54 ERA. Even journeyman Brandon Duckworth has found his Kansas City swing, grabbing two wins, a save, and a 2.94 ERA in thirtysome innings between the bullpen and the rotation. All told, the Royals have nine pitchers with primarily relief innings who have ERAs lower than any of the members (non-Jenks) of the White Sox bullpen. Kansas City's starters aren't going to scare anybody, but when they hand the ball over with a lead, their teammates get it done. That's how Jorge de la Rosa and Odalis Perez each have 8 wins despite their 5.50+ ERAs.

So reliable bullpen arms are valuable, the trouble is identifying them. After all, keeping with the White Sox analysis, Cliff Politte, Neal Cotts, Shingo Takatsu, and Mike MacDougal all saw their ERAs rise by more than three runs from one year to the next. There have been some disastrous or near disastrous contracts given to middle relievers in recent years: Latroy Hawkins (3 years/$12 M), Danys Baez (3 years/$19 M), Steve Karsay (4 years/$21 M). But there have also been some guys probably worth well more than they get paid: Bobby Howry (3 years/$12 M), David Riske (1 year/$2 M), Mike Timlin (1 year/$3 M). How do you know which is which? I've got some ideas.