The Giants & The Beanstalk

Although I certainly would've preferred the World Series to run on a little longer with a little better showing from the Rangers, as I've probably made quite clear, I'm very satisfied with this result.  The Giants are a "fairytale" team.  And, every once in awhile, baseball needs a fairytale champion.  Sadly, the ratings were bad, as the casual fan was less likely to be familiar with the narratives of these players and the history of these teams, which was a large part of what made them interesting.  But by winning the World Series for the first time in half a century, during a season when few people picked them to finish better than second or third in their division, the Giants dignified that optimism which inspires fans every March and April: "With a few good breaks, with a few smart decisions, this could be our year."

This is a big part of why the Rangers/Giants matchup was "good for baseball," even if it wasn't good for Fox Corp (and, by the way, fuck what's good for Fox Corp).  Baseball thrives on the performance of the underdog.  Let's face it, it's only the first of November and we already know there are less than half a dozen teams with a chance of winning the NBA title next June.  March Madness consists of 64 teams, but we all know less than a quarter of those have even the slightest chance.  The NFL thrives on the rhetoric of competitive balance (and rhetoric whose main aim is to somehow dignify an inhumane labor policy), but nearly half the teams in their league have never won a Super Bowl.  Baseball has had nine champions in the last ten seasons.  Two of those champions were first-time winners (Angels & D-Backs) and three had waited more than a generation (ChiSox, BoSox, & Giants).  One could easily argue that, on that basis, there's more balance in baseball than in any other sport, even though it doesn't have a salary cap and hopefully never will.

So, there's the good, but, frankly, I've had enough optimism.  The fact is, although I thoroughly enjoyed this season and these playoffs, now it's all over, and that inevitably puts me in a sour mood.  Here are some reasons why this season sucks:

1.) Yankee Fans

From the meathead bigot who slapped Nelson Cruz's glove during the NLCS to the jackasses that spit on Cliff Lee's wife.  Yankee fandom has reached a new nadir.  Maybe it's the fact that Hank and Hal are sleazier and more entitled than their old man (who would've thought it possible).  Maybe it's the fact that the new stadium is an overpriced, simulacrum haven for Caucasians.  Maybe it's the fact that the pinstriped ethos has turned soulful players like C. C. Sabathia, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson into stilted shadows of their former selves.  Whatever the cause, the Yankees are more despicable than ever, and the widespread ignorance and arrogance of their supporters may be the main reason why.  Enjoy the rapid decline of A-Rod and the "Core Four."  You deserve it.

2.) Brian Sabean

I think my position on the likability of this team is pretty well documented, but the Giants GM was very fortunate that a strategy which looks a hell of a lot like a desperate shot in the dark actually paid off.  Sabean, baseball's longest tenured GM, has a few things to hang his hat on.  The Giants have drafted well.  They've developed young pitchers as well as any franchise in the sport.  They've got a great ballpark and a very supportive fanbase, despite a great deal of controversy and the number of crappy teams they've fielded during the last decade.  However, by winning the 2010 World Series, the Giants players basically got Sabean off the hook for what has been a pretty embarrassing stretch of acquisitions, dating back to the infamous Liriano, Nathan, and Bonser for one year of A. J. Pierzynski trade in 2003.  As I discussed in my previous post, this team is on the hook for some really bad contracts: Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Mark DeRosa top the list.  And those are just the ones that are still on the books.  Resigning Bengie Molina was patently absurd.  One can argue that Edgar Renteria justified his ridiculous contract with a World Series MVP, by remember how much money the Giants paid to other over-the-hill veterans like Randy Winn, Rich Aurilia, and Dave Roberts.  All are likable players, all were at one point productive, but not so much when Sabean was paying them.  Sabean's fiscal record is among the worst in the sport.  Will winning buy the Bay Area hundreds of millions more dollars in bad contracts?

3.) Seth Everett

I can't possibly do any better than to direct you to the recent "re-reunion" of Fire Joe Morgan, but at a time when research is getting easier, access is more abundant, and competition is fierce, mainstream media commentators are somehow growing more incompetent.  Peter Pascarelli isn't exactly a baseball genius, but they replaced him on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast with an asinine self-promotor named Seth Everett who made the show pretty much unlistenable.  By host Eric Karabell's own admission, his podcast is made specifically for rabid baseball fans, yet Everett frequently exposes an ignorance of the sport to the point of not knowing which player is on which team and babbles on incessantly about his personal life, which is about as interesting as the underside of the refrigerator and should be as inaccessible.  The Baseball Today situation may be a synechdoche for the problems which abound throughout the baseball media.  Pascarelli was fired because he made a relatively mild joke about the new statue of Bud Selig in Milwaukee.  The iron hand of MLB has made good journalists weary of being critical, objective, candid, witty, and spontaneous when it comes to coverage of their sport.  And thus we're left with the smug, insubstantial musings of half-wits like Everett and his ilk.

4.) Backlash Against Defensive Sabermetrics

One of the major stories of last offseason was the attempt, especially by forward-thinking GMs like Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, and Jack Zduriencik, to build their rosters around defensive efficiency, measured in part by things like UZR, the Fielding Bible, and no doubt many other in-house statistics.  Unfortunately, none of these teams made extraordinary leaps in the standings in the wake of this strategy.  In fact, quite the opposite.  The Red Sox, though still a solid team, dropped six wins from 2009 and finished out of the postseason for the first time since 2006.  The Mariners, following an optimism-inducing 85-win campaign in '09, dropped to 61 wins, one of the worst records in baseball.  And though the Athletics managed to get to .500 for the first time since '06, they remained well short of contention.  Anti-sabermetric pundits will use this opportunity to berate us for thinking that defense is measurable.  The truth is, Boston's season was derailed by injuries, Zduriencik couldn't possibly have predicted how bad his team would be offensively (historically bad), and a closer look at Oakland (forthcoming) suggest that Beane's approach has some legitimacy.  In all likelihood, however, that's not how the story will be treated during this offseason.

5.) Chicago Cubs Still Chicago Cubs

This one hurts.  The Cubs got back to losing in 2010 and not only that, they got back to losing in sensational and humiliating fashion.  They had the largest payroll in the National League, yet they managed to finish fifth in their division, behind even the Houston Astros, who started the season by going 16-33 and then traded away two of their best players.  The Cubs best (and most expensive) pitcher got demoted to the bullpen, than suspended from the team, and now his future may no longer be in Chicago.  The three best (and most expensive) hitters were all busts, looking old, slow, and brittle.  The $136 Million prize, Alfonso Soriano, had the same WAR (2.9) as Denard Span.  He has four years left on his contract, at $18 Million per annum (in other words, for the same price we could probably have Carl Crawford).  Lou Pinella "retired," but the new ownership, for some unknown reason, still hasn't gotten around to firing Jim Hendry, who has presided over the creation of this mess, apparently in perpetuity.  Now they've got a rookie manager, very little payroll flexibility, and a stacked division.  The decade just began, but it already looks like this might not be the one in which we'll finally break the curse.  Congrats to San Francisco, Boston, and the White Sox.  It's getting very lonely in Loserville.

Do the Giants need this more?

Let me first emphasize that I don't believe this series is over.  Cliff Lee will take the mound against Tim Lincecum tonight in a rematch of a much-anticipated Game One which turned out to be anything but a pitcher's duel.  Something tells me less than 18 runs will be scored this time around.  Are the Rangers capable of winning three in a row?  Of course they are.  But, at least at this point, they've been absolutely dominated.  The Giants look like they want it more.  And, although I usually abhor observations like that, here's why it might be true.

The Expendables are not going to be around next year.  They are, by nature, expendable.  While the Rangers core, with the notable exception of Cliff Lee, is wrapped up for years to come, the wily veterans on the Giants know their time together is coming to an end.  Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria, Jose Guillen, and nearly all of the productive middle relievers in the Giants bullpen will be free agents this offseason.  Huff, Burrell, and Uribe will all be far more enticing than they were a year ago.  As a result, they will all, presumably, be looking for multiyear deals for significantly more money than they earned from the Giants this season.  In other words, they won't all be back...and perhaps none of them will.

And while Brian Sabean clearly has a lot to be proud of right now, he must know that the offseason, even if it begins with some long-awaited celebrating, is going to be a tough one financially.  The Giants have committed more than $38 Million in 2011 to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Mark DeRosa.  Zito will be, at best, their fifth starter next season, and wasn't considered good enough by Bruce Bochy to even gain a spot on the playoff roster.  Rowand has become a very expensive fourth outfielder.  And, DeRosa, though a productive player as recently as 2009, is a 36-year-old coming off of major wrist surgery (wrist injuries have a notoriously long rehab process, sometimes years).

So, basically, that's well over a third of San Francisco's payroll that's sunk before the season even begins.  Add to it that they face potentially expensive arbitration hearings for Jonathan Sanchez, Andres Torres, and Cody Ross, as well as the significant and well-deserved raises coming to Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson, and what we have is a franchise that will by nearing their current payroll limit (~$100 Million) before they even attempt to deal with the free agent market.

The Giants do have a few things to hang their hats on.  There's no reason to believe that Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez won't continue to be one of the most dominant trios of starting pitchers in the game.  Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner had exceptional rookie campaigns and should be under the franchises control for many years to come.  Pablo Sandoval, widely regarded as the Giants best position player when the year began, suffered a season-long slump, but could well be due for a rebound in 2011.  But that observation also begs the question: Can Posey and Bumgarner avoid a similar sophomore slump?  Can Andres Torres prove that he's not a fluke after having a breakout season at the age of 30?  Are Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez the dominant setup men they were in 2010, or was there due cause for their previous teams to give up on them?

The Rangers have Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Elvis Andrus.  They've got Colby Lewis, C. J. Wilson, and Neftali Feliz.  They've got one of the deepest and most promising pools of young pitching in the game, with guys like Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Tommy Hunter, Dustin Nippert, and Tanner Scheppers.  And they've still got high-end hitting prospects like Chris Davis and Max Ramirez.  They've got new ownership with deeper pockets and lots of payroll flexibility because they've got no bad contracts currently on the books.  There is really no reason to believe that Texas cannot be right back in the postseason next year and for several years to come, with or without Cliff Lee.

The Giant, on the other hand, are, for better or worse, a patchwork team.  They've got a solid foundation of starting pitching, but all season long Sabean has been getting by with what amounts to duct tape and putty.  If that structure holds together for just a few more days, they Giants will win their first World Series in half a century.  But, this house has not been built to survive the winter, and everybody in the San Francisco clubhouse knows it.  

Under Constructions Indefinitely (World Series Preview)

How much can a general manager really do during the season?  Sure, the trade deadline provides an exciting midseason sideshow which sometimes leads to stars changing uniforms, but only on rare occasions (say, C. C. Sabathia in 2008) do those moves really create contenders.  Remember when the Braves acquired Mark Teixeira from the Rangers for a package that included two key players on their World Series roster (Elvis Andrus & Neftali Feliz), as well as two more players who made minor contributions during the 2010 season (Matt Harrison & Jarrod Saltalamacchia).  (You think the Braves might've been a better team this year with Andrus at short and Feliz in the bullpen?)  Teixeira played great down the stretch, but it wasn't enough to push a flawed Atlanta team past the Phillies and the Mets.

Although a GM can certainly contribute by building organizational depth and knowing who to promote and when to promote them, most of their job is done during the offseason.  Look at the Yankees and Phillies for instance.  When the Yankees took the field in the ALCS, they had exactly the lineup New York fans enjoyed on Opening Day, with the exception of Lance Berkman/Marcus Thames being substituted for the injured Nick Swisher.  Ditto for the Phillies.  On their pitching staffs you had a couple notable additions, Roy Oswalt and Kerry Wood, but otherwise they looked much as they had six months ago.  You could make the same observations about the Rays, Reds, Twins, and Braves.

One of the most interesting things about our two World Series contestants is their exceptional roster turnover.  When the managers set their 25-man rosters on Wednesday, both sides will likely feature at least a dozen guys who didn't break camp with the team in April.

For Texas, the top two thirds of the lineup, though they've struggled through injuries to Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, have been crucial to their success.  Thats the core you think about when you think about the Rangers.  The bottom third, however, composed generally of catchers, first basemen, and right-fielders, has been a constant source of stress for Ron Washington.  The Rangers began the season with a bunch of promising young players, many of the former first-round draft picks fighting for these positions - guys like Justin Smoak, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Julio Borbon, Max Ramirez, and Chris Davis.  They ended up giving an unfortunate number of at-bats to also-rans like Matt Treanor, Jorge Cantu, Jeff Francoeur, and Ryan Garko, because several of the kids had trouble finding the Mendoza line.

However, Texas's most drastic renovations came in the rotation.  The Rangers year began with starts by Scott Feldman and Rich Harden, a few days later they turned to Matt Harrison.  If those names aren't familiar to you, that's because none of them made the playoff roster.  Ten pitchers got the chance to start games for Texas in 2010 and only Colby Lewis and C. J. Wilson were constants.  That's not generally a recipe for postseason success, but the Rangers eventually found a rhythm, mainly through the acquisition of Cliff Lee and the promotions of Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland.

The bullpen was a similar work in progress, as Frank Francisco was expected to return as the closer and Chris Ray was going to be one of his key set-up men.  Francisco went on the D.L. after a week and when he returned, Neftali Feliz had taken his spot.  Ray eventually got shipped to San Francisco following the discovery of Alexi Ogando.  All told, though the Texas bullpen was one of the best in the American League, they used fourteen different pitchers for at least ten innings.

The Giants tell basically the opposite story.  Four pitchers made 33 starts, a picture of rotational consistency which is the envy of nearly the entire league.  Only one change was made all year, when 20-year-old rookie Madison Bumgarner replaced Todd Wellemeyer at the end of June.  The bullpen, conceived around closer Brian Wilson and set-up men Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt did have some turnover, as all bullpens do, but the central pieces were always in place and five pitchers threw at least 50 innings.

The lineup, however, was something of a marvel of musical chairs.  Assuming that Bruce Bochy starts the World Series with the defensive alignment he's used through most of the playoffs, it will feature exactly one player, Aubrey Huff, who was in the lineup on Opening Day.  (Freddy Sanchez would've been in there had it not been for a lingering injury.)  Four of the Giants eight starting position players weren't even with the team until June or later.  Here's a comparison of Opening Day and the likely Game One lineup:

Aaron Rowand, CF		Andres Torres, CF
Edgar Renteria, SS		Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Pablo Sandoval, 3B		Aubrey Huff, 1B
Aubrey Huff, 1B		Buster Posey, C
Mark DeRosa, 2B		Pat Burrell, LF
Bengie Molina, C		Cody Ross, RF
John Bowker, RF		Juan Uribe, SS
Nate Schierholtz, LF		Mike Fontenot, 3B
Tim Lincecum, P		Tim Lincecum, P

Bet you didn't recall that the Giants "big" offseason signing was Mark DeRosa.  Ten players got double-digit starts in the Giants outfield in 2010.  The infield provided significant amounts of work for Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Emmanuel Buriss.  Remember them?

Honestly, I haven't yet found one team, let alone two, that did these kind of renovations over the course of their season, yet found their way to the World Series nonetheless.  It helps, of course, that each has a abundant strength - the top of the lineup for Texas, the rotation for San Francisco - but even so, we all know that dominating one aspect of the game isn't enough to make it to the mountaintop.  You've got to give a great deal of credit for these team's opportunities to the in-season creativity of Brian Sabean and Jon Daniels.

Narrative Likability Factor & The San Francisco Giants

The Giants began this season looking much like they have for the entirety of Bruce Bochy's tenure, which began in 2007.  They had pitching, in abundance, led by the youthful trio of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, but they had a lineup composed primarily of overpaid, over-the-hill veterans who hit very little and fielded less.  After two months, Giants fans must've had an eery feeling of deja vu.  They were still in the thick of the NL West hunt, but the team seemed content wasting at-bats on Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina.  It seemed only a matter of time before the Rockies and the Dodgers simply hit their way past San Francisco, just as they had done in each of the last three years.

The first step in Brian Sabean's plan to thwart this inevitability was so obvious, one might call it shameful that he hadn't resorted to it sooner.  He recalled top prospect, Buster Posey, who had done nothing but hit ever since the Giants drafted him.  The fresh-faced Posey was almost immediately inserted in the center of the lineup.  He has been the Giants most productive hitter ever since.  But the remainder of his strategy was neither particularly obvious, nor particularly advisable.  Basically, Sabean decided he was going to the scrap heap, looking for the players other teams were giving up on.  Such players, many of them with some modicum of former glory, would be carrying a chip on their collective shoulders which might further inspire their performance, at least over the short term.  Somehow this motley crew of overweight infielders, former designated hitters, and minor-league journeymen, replete with aching backs, bad knees, and tendonitis, were able to inch the Giants into the postseason, where, suddenly, sporting one of the game's best rotations, they become a serious threat.  As part of my ongoing dissertation on Narrative Likability Factor in the 2010 playoffs, here's a look at the cast of San Francisco's EXPENDABLES:

• Andres Torres, CF:  The face of the Expendables is definitely Andres Torres, who Sabean signed to a minor-league contract prior to the 2009 season.  At the time, Torres was 30-years-old and had been through six different organizations without being granted more than 168 at-bats at the major-league level.  His most recent cup of coffee had come with the Rangers in 2005 and had lasted all of eight games.  Torres had long ago been reckoned "organizational depth."  The Giants were unenthusiastic, even following Torres's excellent performance at AAA in '08.  They gave younger, mid-level prospects like John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz, and Travis Ishikawa every opportunity to win the job that fell, finally and reluctantly, to him.  Torres responded to his first ever shot at regular playing time by becoming the most valuable center-fielder in the National League.  His 6.0 WAR trails only Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez among NL outfielders and his 21.5 UZR was best in the league.  Meanwhile, he'll take home the league minimum and won't be eligible for free agency until 2014, by which point he'll be 36.  If the Giants win the pennant, Andres Torres becomes the future subject of a Disney biopic.  You heard it here first.
• Juan Uribe, SS:  The long-time White Sox shortstop also joined the Giants prior to the '09 season.  Sabean gave him a minor-league contract and the opportunity to win a utilityman job for just 20% of the salary he'd made the previous season. Clearly, there wasn't a bidding war following a year in which Uribe missed substantial time, posted a 682 OPS, and quarreled with Ozzie Guillen.  Uribe played 300 innings at three different positions in '09 and hit well enough that the Giants resigned him this past offseason.  In May he became their everyday shortstop, potentially the fattest everyday shortstop in the history of major-league baseball, and responded my posting career highs in homers (24) and RBI (85).
• Aubrey Huff, 1B:  Huff has had a helluva ride the last few years.  After an extended tenure with the Devil Rays, Huff signed a sizable deal with the Orioles and rewarded them with a big year in 2008, when he won a Silver Slugger and even got some MVP votes.  The following year, however, he was so bad that the Orioles traded him to Detroit at the deadline for a bucket of balls and a minor-league reliever.  This offseason, as he recovered from a back injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the stretch run, nobody wanted anything to do with him and he ended up signing a one-year deal with the Giants for less than half of what he'd become accustomed to making.  Following a slow start, he has once again turned himself into an MVP candidate, leading the Giants in runs, homers, RBI, and OPS.  Of this cast of Expendables, he looks the most like a washed-up Hollywood action hero.
• Santiago Casilla, RP:  The 30-year-old reliever spent three years doing mop-up duty in Oakland before being unceremoniously released by Billy Beane during the offseason.  Across the Bay, Sabean saw something he liked.  Casilla has blossomed in San Francisco proper, becoming one of the Giants top set-up men and posting a miniscule 1.95 ERA in 55 innings of work.  A big-bodied flame-thrower without a second pitch, Casilla is basically the Latino Bobby Jenks.
• Pat Burrell, LF:  Pat the Bat also fell from grace in a hurry.  The longtime Phillie signed a sizable deal with the Rays prior to '09.  He was awful as their DH and ran amok with teammates and management to such a degree that the cash-starved Rays released him, eating about $7 Million in salary.  Sabean swooped in with a minor-league deal and Burrell eventually became the team's everyday left-fielder, swatting 18 HR and driving in 51 in half a season.  This man clearly should've never again played the outfield, but he's still good for the occasional 440 ft. moonshot.
• Ramon Ramirez, RP: Ramirez joined his sixth organization prior to his 29th birthday.  It was the fourth time he'd been traded, most notably on the other end of deals for Jorge De La Rosa and Coco Crisp.  Ramirez had been a very valuable, durable middle reliever for two seasons in Boston, accumulating a 2.74 ERA in 141 innings between '08 and '09.  But when he started slow, the Boston brass looked to unload him for a 23-year-old with a 4.09 ERA at AA.  As the Boston bullpen imploded down the stretch, it might've been nice to have the guy who has given up only two earned runs since joining the Giants (0.67 ERA).
• Jose Guillen, RF:  Perhaps feeling invincible by this point, Sabean netted Guillen in a waiver trade with the Royals in August.  Guillen is most famous for being such an unbelievable pain in the ass that the Angels asked him to leave during a season in which he had driven in over a hundred runs.  He also has one of the ten best throwing arms in major-league history (according to MLB Network).  The Giants are Guillen's tenth major-league team.  Always a tantalizing talent, Guillen never managed to make an All-Star team and had just that one lonely season of 100+ RBI.  This one has had only modest returns thusfar, as Guillen has been merely replacement level since joining San Francisco.  However, he's a notoriously streaky hitter, if he got hot in October it could be exactly the thing to spur the Giants to an unlikely pennant.
• Cody Ross, OF:  Ross was unexpectedly DFA'd by his former team, the Marlins, after two solid seasons as their centerfielder.  For the Giants, he plays against southpaws, pinch-hits, and comes in as a defensive replacement.  He's performed admirably in that capacity. 

If there has every been a gaggle of baseball grinders with something to prove, this is it.  And that makes the Giants a lovable underdog.  They are old, they are slow, occasionally to the point of provoking laughter.  They swing for the fences with great frequency and miss with greater ferocity.  They are, like Sylvester Stallone, often aggravating and painful to watch.  If the Giants advance, it will be primarily because of their stable of flamethrowing 25-year-olds.  But in order for that to happen, the 35-year-olds are going to have a grind out at least a couple runs a game and when it happens, it's cause for the kind of elation usually reserved for middle-aged men who hit homers at fantasy camp.

Narrative Likability Factor: A

Bailing Out Brian Sabean

The Giants front office needed some good news this morning, after Buster Olney reported in his survey of general managers that Sabean was roundly considered the most difficult to deal with.  One GM even told Olney he had difficulty getting Sabean to return his calls.  This can't possibly go over well with Giants fans, who have, for essentially half a decade, been waiting for Sabean to pull the trigger and bring in a legit middle-of-the-order hitter.  That he has not been able to pull off this task is indictment enough, but that he hasn't even been putting forth every effort to get it done is frankly unforgivable.  Shame on you, Brian Sabean.  Shame on you.

However, though it's hardly a blockbuster, the Giants did respond to this morning's report by announcing a trade.  Apparently Sabean returns Jon Daniels calls, because the two agreed to a deal which sent Bengie Molina and cash to the Rangers for Chris Ray and a player to be named later.  Unless you count the Mariners reacquisition of Russell Branyan, this is the first trade of the season involving a team (in this case both) which is gearing up for the pennant race.

As far as the Giants are concerned, this has to be considered a win.  They surprised everybody this offseason by resigning Molina and thus delaying the arrival of Buster Posey.  Molina made Sabean look good for about six weeks, but since the middle of May, a stretch of thirty games, his performance has fallen off dramatically, much as it did in the latter stages of 2009.  Over that span he's hitting .182 with a 436 OPS, 7 RBI, and two (that's right, 2) runs scored.  In doing so, he is essentially stealing at-bats from guys like Posey, Pat Burrell, Travis Ishikawa, and Nate Schierholtz, all of whom have been significantly superior hitters, in a lineup starved for runs.  This is definitely an improvement by subtraction, as it allows Posey (C) and Aubrey Huff (1B) to move back to their natural positions, thus opening up more at-bats in the outfield.

As an added bonus, the Giants receive a respectable veteran reliever in Chris Ray.  Ray has been having a minor renaissance this season in Texas, with a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 35 appearances.  One would expect his numbers could even improve as he moves from a bandbox to a pitcher's haven and from the AL to the NL.  Unfortunately, this helps the Giants very little, as their bullpen was already amongst the best and deepest in the league and Ray is unlikely to see much more than mop-up duty, but with many other would-be contenders (Phillies, Reds, Angels, Red Sox) in need of relief reinforcements, Sabean might be able to convert Ray into a valuable utilityman, a sixth starter, or a B-level prospect.

For the Rangers, who remain among the hottest teams in baseball following a Vladimir Guerrero driven win in Anaheim last night, this may seem a bit desperate.  Granted, Ray was also a bit extraneous in their bullpen, which is also excellent, and catcher has been an accursed position in Arlington for the last couple seasons.  However, in June, Matt Treanor and Max Ramirez combined to hit .253 with a .377 OBP, .421 SLG, 13 R, and 17 RBI.  Those aren't stellar numbers, certainly, but they are respectable for the position and easily superior to Molina's.  He has 17 RBI as well, but for the whole year!  Perhaps the move to Texas will awaken Molina's bat, but I suppose what Jon Daniels sees, regardless, is a player with a long track record success working with young pitchers, definitely a valuable skill to bring to the Rangers, who enter the second half depending heavily on unproven arms like Colby Lewis, C. J. Wilson, and Tommy Hunter.

It's possible this trade could be win-win.  However, I think the major outcome here is that Sabean will be saved from evisceration in the San Francisco press-box every time Molina grounds into a double play while Posey and/or Burrell are sitting on the bench.  When the major upside of a trade is covering the GMs ass, that's probably not a good thing for the franchise.  

Offseason Prospectus #7: The San Francisco Giants

The Giants had not achieved more than 75 wins since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time Barry Bonds won the MVP. So, despite a third-place finish, notching 88 wins has to be considered a major step forward for the franchise, and, whether you like it or not, it probably means both Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy will be around at least until their contracts expire at the end of the 2011 season. I've voiced me skepticism about Sabean in the past (here and here, most notably) and there is no denying he handed out three of the worst contracts in the game (to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria), but San Francisco's drafting and development have improved by leaps and bounds in the last couple seasons, so there is reason to be positive about his administration as well.

The question about the 2010 Giants is whether they can make the small step forward which would probably result in a playoff bid, or whether they will suffer the backslide which so often follows a surprising sixteen-win swing like this one (see '07 Tigers, '08 Rockies, '09 Rays, etc., etc.). Although it would undoubtedly stick in the craw of Giants fans to see their team stand pat again this offseason, when there offensive liabilities are so evident, I will argue that is exactly the right course of action for the long term viability of the franchise. They cannot afford to be saddled by another contractual albatross, and the impact free agents this offseason (Holliday, Bay, Lackey, etc.) have the potential to become exactly that. If Sabean and Peter Magowan are preparing to make another nine-figure investment, it would be better to wait until next winter and commit that money to Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, or Roy Halladay. Or, they could try to get Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval under contract for many years to come. Or, they might consider testing the availability of guys like Crawford, Halladay, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder come June or July. The fact of the matter is, the Giants have several decisions to make before they can even accurately assess their most dire needs.

Free Agents:

Bobby Howry (36) RHRP

Randy Johnson (46) LHSP

Bengie Molina (35) C

Brad Penny (32) RHSP

Juan Uribe (30) IF

Randy Winn (36) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Ryan Garko (29) 1B

Tim Lincecum (26) RHSP

Brandon Medders (30) RHRP

Jonathan Sanchez (27) LHSP

Brian Wilson (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Madison Bumgarner (20) LHSP

Matt Downs (26) 2B/3B/OF

Jesus Guzman (26) 1B/3B

Waldis Joaquin (23) RHRP

Brett Pill (25) 1B

Buster Posey (23) C

Kevin Pucetas (25) RHSP

Ryan Rohlinger (26) 3B

Dan Runzler (25) LHRP

Henry Sosa (24) RHSP

Obviously, the Giants will again lean heavily on their pitching staff, led by Lincecum and Cain. Atlanta and St. Louis also had excellent rotations in 2009, but San Francisco led the NL in strikeouts, WHIP, complete games, opponent's average and OPS. There is no reason to believe the Giants will be any worse in 2010. Barry Zito (32) is the only member of the rotation older than 27 and Jeremy Affeldt (31) is the only pitcher in bullpen over thirty. Moreover, and this is where Sabean deserves a great deal of commendation, there is more homegrown talent on the way. Madison Bumgarner, though only twenty, will almost certainly join the rotation this spring. He has very little to prove in the minors after his most recent campaign:

Bumgarner (A/AA) 12-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 92/34 K/BB, 131 IP

Kevin Pucetas took a step backward at AAA in '09, but he and Henry Sosa are also top prospects who could join the rotation later this season, if necessary. Their presence make Randy Johnson and Brad Penny expendable, although Sabean may disagree. Similarly, the Giants should be able to quickly compensate for the loss of Bobby Howry by promoting Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler, and giving more innings to Sergio Romo and Joe Martinez. Both in the rotation and the bullpen, the Giants staff is not only dominant, but deep as well.

Unfortunately, quite the opposite is true of the everyday lineup. If we took San Francisco's current starting eight down Highway 1 and gave them to Joe Torre and the Dodgers, Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez would be the only guys with starting positions. And, again, unlike the pitching staff, there aren't many reinforcements on the way. The Giants best positions prospects, guys like Angel Villalona, Conor Gillaspie, and Darren Ford, won't be ready for the big leagues until 2012 at the earliest. What they have an abundance of in the high minors are players who look destined for AAAA or limited major-league roles; outfielders like Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, Joe Borchard, Andres Torres, and Fred Lewis; and infielders like Emmanuel Burriss, Kevin Frandsen, Ryan Garko, and Travis Ishikawa.

The same may also be true of Brett Pill, Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Jesus Guzman, rookies who will all fight for at-bats at third, first, and probably in the outfield as well, during Spring Training and the early months of 2010. This is one of the reasons I urge the Giants to be cautious on the free agent market this offseason. While none of these players appear to possess the talent to provide serious protection for Sandoval, a couple of them (the best bets are probably Guzman, Downs, and Eugenio Velez) could develop into legitimate starters. Bochy is going to have a major challenge finding enough opportunities for all his youngsters to show what they are capable of, but until he does so, it will be difficult for the Giants front office to identify their most pressing need. Certainly, they need a power-hitter to plug in behind Sandoval in the middle of lineup, but whether it would be better for that slugger to play first base, third base, or outfield, remains to be seen.

To that effect, San Francisco needs to decide relatively soon whether they are going to continue to use Kung Fu Panda at the hot corner, or give in to the fact that his weight makes him more logically suited for first base. I can understand their reluctance. Sandoval has been passable on defense thusfar (-2.3 UZR) and it is easier to find a free agent slugger at first than at third, but in '09 he hit .320 with a 921 OPS when playing third and .385 with a 1071 OPS in his more limited appearances at first, suggesting that the Panda's production might benefit slightly from an alleviation of defensive anxiety. Clearly, fans pay to see Sandoval hit, so maybe it's best to let him concentrate on that. I expect he will continue to bounce back and forth in '10 as Bochy finds at-bats opposite him for Guzman, Downs, Ishikawa, Frandsen, Garko, etc., but by '11 he should be settled at a permanent position, to which he can give his full attention (as an analogy, Albert Pujols benefitted both offensively and defensively when the Cardinals finally settled him at first base after several seasons of bouncing between first, third, and left field).

Sabean faces another difficult decision this offseason with his backstops. Bengie Molina became one of the most popular players in San Francisco during the last three seasons, and one can argue that he has been a significant part of the pitching staff's success. However, he has also become a serious offensive liability, netting an atrocious .285 OBP (!) in '09. One could argue that he might improve if he were able to hit lower in the order, in less pressure situations, but regardless of batting position, he doesn't have nearly the upside of Buster Posey, the 2008 first-rounder who pounded his way through the minor leagues in just over a year. So, there are, in fact, two catching questions:

1.) Can a 23-year-old, regardless of his reported maturity, handle catching the nastiest pitching staff in the game on a nightly basis?

2.) Can Bengie Molina handle a backup role, or even a 50/50 timeshare, after three seasons of starting 120+ games?

If the Giants decide the answer to the first question is yes, but the answer to the second question is no (and those, I believe, are the right answers), than they will be in the market for a veteran backstop who had adjusted to limited playing time, but who has wisdom to impart to the rookie. Jose Molina would be the obvious choice, but he will likely return to the Bronx and may be reluctant to follow in his brother's footsteps. Other decent options could be Jason Kendall, Miguel Olivo, Gregg Zaun, Brad Ausmus, or Ivan Rodriguez.

Finally, the Giants need to decide what they expect out of Aaron Rowand. He got off to a solid start last season, but faded fast, from July 5th forward he managed only a 594 OPS. The Giants again bounced him around the order, even experimenting, relatively successfully, with using him as a leadoff hitter. Rowand's offensive woes aren't the only problem. His range in center appears to be declining as well. For a team which depends heavily on its outfield defense in the spacious confines of AT&T Park, it may be wise to consider moving Rowand to right field, although as a corner outfielder, his poor hitting becomes even more auspicious.

The Giants should again exhibit many reasons for optimism in 2010, but San Francisco may need to be patient for yet another year before they can anticipate a serious contender.

Here is my projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Aaron Rowand (R)

2B Freddy Sanchez (R)

1B Pablo Sandoval (S)

3B Mark DeRosa (R)

LF Eugenio Velez (S)

C Buster Posey (R)

RF Andres Torres (S)

SS Edgar Renteria (R)

P Tim Lincecum (R)

SP Matt Cain (R)

SP Barry Zito (L)

SP Jonathan Sanchez (L)

SP Madison Bumgarner (L)

CL Brian Wilson (R)

SU Brandon Medders (R)

SU Jeremy Affeldt (L)

MI Sergio Romo (R)

MI Waldis Joaquin (R)

MI Dan Runzler (L)

MU Joe Martinez (R)

C Miguel Olivo (R) FA

IF Matt Downs (R)

IF Juan Uribe (R)

IF Kevin Frandsen (R)

OF Fred Lewis (L)

Trade Waiver Fantasy #1 (Giants Edition)

The deadline has past, rumors and speculations have waned, and we assume that the dozen or so remaining postseason contenders are resigned to winning or losing with what they already have. There are only two options for change. One I posted on earlier today. You can bring up a young stud like Justin Upton and hope that he has a couple of games like the one he had last night (3-4, 2B, 3B, HR). Or, you can attempt to sneak somebody through trade waivers, as Oakland did with Mike Piazza. Deals made after the waiver deadline rarely have significant impact. Although, last year guys like Phil Nevin, David Wells, Javy Lopez, Jeff Conine, and Matt Stairs all were involved in deals after July 31. As this group suggests, waiver deals are usually reserved for overpaid veterans who fill minor bench rolls, or act as the replacement for an injured regular. Teams that offer a player on waivers see three alternatives. They can get the player through waivers and negotiate a deal for him on the open market. Presumably, if the player is put on waivers, the GM thinks he has at least two or three bidders in mind. Or, if the player is claimed, the GM can then negotiate with that team or withdraw the player from waivers. A player who has been withdrawn cannot be offered up again by the same team.

When, for instance, your team loses a player like Alfonso Soriano after the trade deadline, it is easy to find yourself exploring waiver fantasies. As I said before, big names rarely pass through waivers, but there are occasions which inspire such fantasies. Like 2004, when the Cardinals claimed Larry Walker on August 6th from the Rockies. Walker gave the Cardinals one of the most lethal orders in recent memory hitting in front of Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Sanders, and Renteria. He hit 11 HR in the season's remaining 44 games and 6 in the playoffs before the Redbirds lost to the Red Sox in the World Series. He also stayed around for a relatively productive, though injury-shortened, season in 2005, when St. Louis again returned to the postseason.

I'm stringing together waiver fantasies on a daily basis as I see infernal teams like the Yankees and Braves gaining ground. Many of these would never happen due to issues like publicity and ticket sales, but I think each scenario, when considered closely, has potential benefits for both teams involved.

Barry Bonds - LF - San Francisco Giants

The media frenzy is over. ESPN has stopped covering the lowly last-place Giants on an everyday basis just because of Barry's quest (although the topic is still consuming the network 24 hours a day). Bonds will continue to draw people to the ballpark as he sets a new record each time he parks it, but even in San Francisco fans will settle into the recognition that now there team isn't playing for anything. And, perhaps more importantly, Bonds will face that recognition. Despite all his accomplishments, he still lacks that thing which ballplayers crave most: the Ring. Brian Sabean has said repeatedly, on national broadcasts, that this offseason he will push to make the team younger. He has a good rotation already, with several quality arms still on the horizon. But he needs young position players, and he needs the young position players he already has - guys like Fred Lewis, Kevin Frandsen, Rajaj Davis, and Todd Linden - to play everyday. The more Bruce Bochy learns about these guys in the next two months, the better chance he has of putting a contending team back on the field within the next two years. Doesn't it seem then, that it would be best for everybody involved if Barry did now what he will almost surely do at season's end. That is, join the American League. Bonds is earning $15.5 Million this season. Who would be willing to take on a third of that?

Detroit : Sheffield, who deserves more credit for what he has done on the field this season, is hurting and missing games. His patience and power have been essential to the productivity of Detroit's lineup, which is second in the MLB in scoring. He leads the team in Runs, HR, SB, and OBP, and is 3rd in RBI and SLG. Sheffield's game is almost identical to Bond's, except that he still has his speed. They have perhaps the two most intimidating swings in the game and they don't swing at anything they can't murder. Manager Jim Leyland would find himself with the most lethal platoon in the game's history. He would be able to rest both aging sluggers, giving himself a dangerous late-inning pinch-hitter, or, when he wanted them both in the lineup, they both can still play a moderately plausible left field, conveniently one of the few positions where the Tigers are struggling to get consistent production.

The Tigers are in the position to win now. As such, they should be going for it as best they possibly can. However, they also have one of the most productive farm systems in the majors. They would almost certainly be willing to part with a top-tier offensive prospect (they have several of them) if it might push them ahead of the Yankees, Indians, and Mariners down the stretch, and help them in the playoffs. The Giants need that kind of prospect (they have none).

New York : This is an obvious combination. The Yankees will not bark at the pricetag. They are looking for a DH. They have a famously short left-field porch. Bonds fits perfectly into their program: seeing a lot of pitches and driving them into the seats. He is close friends with A-Rod. The only problem is, he can't pitch.

On the other side of the coin, this is not as perfect a match. Most of the Yankees top prospects are pitchers, which New York is (and should be) reluctant to part with. And which, though everybody needs them, the Giants need less than most. However, San Francisco is in no position to be picky. They need prospects in bunches. The Yankees Alberto Gonzalez (SS), Juan Miranda (1B), or Bronson Sardinha (OF) might make good matches.

Anaheim : The Angels desperately need another thumper besides Vlad. Batting in front of Guerrero, Bonds would see more pitches (as he would with any of these teams) and Vlad would get more RBI opportunities. The Angels are rumored to be in the running for Piazza. This would be a step better. The presence of Garrett Anderson would allow Mike Sciossia some flexibility. In all honesty, the Angels could probably use both Piazza and Bonds in their lineup if they are going to be serious about holding off the Mariners and being a contender in October.

The Angels system is the single most replete with young talent in all of baseball. They don't have enough room in Anaheim for all the players that are major league ready: Aybar and Wood Kendrick and Izturis and Willits and Haynes. Because of the abundance, the Angels would probably part with an excellent player, like Kendry Morales, or some decent players, like Tommy Murphy and Nick Guernhalt, because their progress is blocked and they haven't been exceptional in brief MLB stints.

Omar Vizquel - SS - San Francisco Giants

Like Bonds, Vizquel has left a mark on Giants fans. If he does intend to retire after the season, it would perhaps be insensitive to let him go elsewhere. However, also like Bonds, Vizquel has never won a World Series. He hasn't been to one in a decade. Giving him one more shot at the postseason would be the best thing the Giants could do for him. Now, nobody is going to give up a top-tier prospect for a shortstop hitting .256. But, despite his age and mediocre numbers this season, Vizquel is still a wizard with the glove who doesn't go a week without a web gem nomination.

Boston : This is the only situation where the argument could be made on offensive grounds. Vizquel has a 25-point advantage in AVG and OBP to Julio Lugo, who has been downright awful with the Red Sox. Lugo has also be below average with the glove, while Vizquel is among the league leaders in every defensive category, including 1st in Errors (only 6), Fielding Percentage, and Zone Rating. Vizquel would mean a great deal to this pitching staff, which induces a fair amount of groundballs and allows too many baserunners via walk. Perhaps the Giants would be interested in Wily Mo Pena?

Detroit : With Neifi Perez' career likely ended by his most recent stimulant suspension (80 games), the Tigers need a back-up infielder and late-inning defensive replacement for Carlos Guillen. It would seem likely that in certain situations Leyland would opt for Guillen at 1B, rather than Sean Casey, and Vizquel at SS to benefit the groundball-inducing pitchers like Bonderman and Robertson. As I said earlier, the Tigers have a lot to offer as far as prospects, particularly in the outfield, where Cameron Maybin, Curtis Granderson, and Magglio Ordonez are likely to be slated for several years to come.

Dave Roberts - CF - San Francisco Giants

There's not a huge market for a 35-year-old speedster coming off an injury who has a career .268 AVG., but Roberts proved in his career's defining moment that speed off the bench is a necessity in a short series. He is 22 for 25 in stolen base attempts this season, despite his injury, including 15 for 17 since returning, and he is hitting .279 in that span. He is a solid defender who plays all three outfield positions and has been to the postseason each of the last three years. And, unlike Bonds and Vizquel, he has no symbolic or sentimental tie to San Francisco.

Chicago : With no true centerfielder, a manager who likes to run and juggle his outfield, and a leadoff hitter on the DL, Chicago seems a likely destination for Roberts. Chicago doesn't have a whole lot to offer, but San Francisco shouldn't demand much in return, since they need that space in center to test Rajaj Davis and Fred Lewis.