Where have all the sluggers gone? (Hot Stove Preview)

I'm going to assume that early reports that Hiroki Kuroda has signed a one-year, $12 Million contract to stay with the Dodgers are true.  If so, I think it's safe to say he gave them a home-town discount.  Kuroda was arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the market this winter.  With the exception of missing some time in 2009, Koruda has been extremely steady in the Dodger rotation over the last three seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.  FanGraphs estimated his worth this past season at around $17 Million.  Even though he is 35, he probably could've sought at least two or three years at $8-$10 Million per, considering his recent performance and the relative sparsity of free agent pitchers this offseason.  Consider, as a comparable, that Randy Wolf got three years, $30 Million last season from Milwaukee.  

Wrapping up Koruda for less money than he made the last two seasons represents a minor coup for Ned Colletti, who will likely be cash-strapped again this winter, as the McCourt divorce doesn't seem anywhere near resolution.  The Dodgers are coming off a very disappointing season, but at least they have some stability in the rotation with Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw.  Colletti can concentrate solely on finding a middle-of-the-order presence to pair with Andre Ethier.  Considering his financial limitations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he looks long and hard at potential trade targets like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Dan Uggla.  Los Angeles possesses a notoriously deep farm system, though Colletti is unlikely to mortgage his top talents unless he believes it will bring the kind of bat (like Fielder) who makes the Dodgers immediate favorites in the NL West.

Here's my first look at some of the other names you're likely to hear a lot in the next month...

Premium Free Agents:

1. Cliff Lee (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers

In the last fifteen months, Cliff Lee has sure made up for all those years he spent being underrated in Cleveland.  Some went so far as to call him the best postseason pitcher in history after two straight impressive Octobers with the Phillies and Rangers.  Now he's primed to chase his friend and former teammate's mark for the largest average annual value in a multiyear contract for a starting pitcher.  Since he's already in his thirties, teams may be reluctant to give Lee more than five years, but they may very well offer close to $25 Million per season.  Also, although Lee is a talent any team would be interested in, several of the deepest pocketbooks this winter - Boston, Seattle, Detroit, etc. - aren't likely to chase pitching, which means it could come down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: New York Yankees (6 Yrs./$140 Million)

2. Carl Crawford (Left Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox 

Crawford is in the pleasant position of being clearly the best hitter among a relatively thin class in the offseason following a severe league-wide offensive backslide.  Crawford is the perfect player for team preparing to compete in a "pitcher's era."  Not only is he a .300 hitter with decent power, but he is also an excellent baserunner and basestealer who is probably the best defender in the sport at his position.  He's not yet thirty, but Crawford has already played nine full seasons, and only once did he fail to top 140 games.  And, as if that weren't enough, he's reputed for his intangibles as well: a clubhouse leader in Tampa with a tireless work ethic and the charisma to illicit the same from his teammates.  The bidding will be steep.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Boston Red Sox (7 Yrs./$130 Million)

3. Jayson Werth (Right Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals

Crawford may be "The Perfect Storm," but Werth is hardly short on tools.  He's got power, speed, discipline, range, and an excellent throwing arm.  He's also coming off easily the best year of his career and will be 32 in May of next year.  There is reason to be cautious.  We may have just witnessed his peak.  That isn't to say that he won't be fairly productive for several more years, but the team that chooses to give him a nine-figure contract could soon find themselves with an Soriano-sized albatross.  And who, besides the Cubs, has a penchant for such signings?

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (6 Yrs./$100 Million)

4. Adrian Beltre (Third Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians

Beltre has his best season since 2004 and was a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP, which made Theo Epstein look like a bit a genius for signing him to a one-year, $9 Million deal.  However, it may have served to make him even more of an enigma.  Was his relatively modest production during his five years in Seattle really just a product of the ballpark?  Is it possible he's one of those players who only steps it up during contract years?  Was he inspired by playing for a contender (just as he did in '04)?  There's no easy answer to these questions, which makes it hard to ante up for the 2010 Beltre (worth over $28 Million according to FanGraphs), when you may end up with the 2009 Beltre (worth less than $12 Million).  Somebody will gamble, but not for more than three years.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$45 Million)

5. Adam Dunn (First Base/DH)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals

Never has a player with five consecutive forty-homer season garnered so little interest as Adam Dunn did in 2009.  His pathetic outfield defense and his massive strikeout totals scared all the contenders away, forcing Dunn to accept a two-year, $20 Million deal with the Nationals, even though he was a 29-year-old slugger.  I would say, the hate was too great.  Dunn has since moved to first base and, in all likelihood, is headed to DH at some point in the near future.  All the while he's continued to hit moonshots.  76 of them during his two years in Washington.  Only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had more.  With power numbers falling around in the league, teams might have a little more patience for Dunn's limitations this offseason.  The Big Donkey is not without his charms.  He's basically unbreakable, having never missed more than ten games, since 2003.  And he has a career OBP of .381, which is better than Mark Teixeira ($181 Million) or Ryan Howard ($125 Million), among others.

As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame.  Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation.  However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%).  He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002).  He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware.  And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice).  For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game.  But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member).  That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Texas Rangers (3 Yrs./$36 Million)

6. Victor Martinez (Catcher/First Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets

Matt Klaasen of Beyond the Box Score (among other things) recently released his Catcher Defense Rankings for the 2010 season.  To nobody's great surprise, V-Mart ranked near the bottom (#114 of 120, to be exact).  Being "better than Jorge Posada" may not be enough for Martinez's next employer, but V-Mart's value on the free agent market is much higher when tied to his ability to produce well above the standards for backstops.  To be fair, there are some things that Klassen's rankings cannot account for.  By all reports, V-Mart is a great field general, clubhouse leader, and game-caller.  Those things were certainly enough to keep marquee hitters like Posada, Jason Varitek, and Gary Carter behind the plate long after they stopped excelling at blocking balls and controlling the running game.  That said, I think it's in the best interests of V-Mart's next team to have a contingency plan, so I expect he won't be headed anywhere that has a long-range commitment at 1B and/or DH.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Detroit Tigers (4 Yrs./$50 Million)

7. Aubrey Huff (First Base/Outfield)

Top Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves

I'm a serious Huff fan.  I even went so far as to make his case for NL MVP this year.  But even I have to be a little wary of a 34-year-old with a history of back and knee injuries coming off a career year.  Huff looked fantastic in 2010.  He came to camp in great shape and showed no ill effects following his derailed '09 campaign.  He even played better than average defense at multiple positions and stole seven bases, the second highest total of his career.  Huff, who, to be honest, has been perennially underpaid, will cite these accomplishments and his playoff heroics while lobbying for the biggest contract of his career.  (His 3 Yr./$20 Million contract with Baltimore wasn't exactly a megadeal.)  So long as the buyer doesn't go much beyond that, I can't fault them.  The potential reward well outweighs the risk.

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

8. Paul Konerko (First Base)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals

Um...ditto?

Like Huff, Konerko is coming off the best year in his long, very solid career, the last dozen seasons of which have been spent in Chicago.  He's a year older than Huff and has made about $50 Million more over the course of his career so far.  I see little reason for him to look for a change of scenery and the White Sox don't exactly have a stable of young sluggers waiting in the wings.  Konerko may even give the ChiSox a moderate hometown discount, especially if they're willing to work in some incentives and/or mutual option years.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$30 Million + mutual option)

9. Carl Pavano (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position.  I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call.  All have substantial risk with moderate upside.  Four things are working against all these guys.  1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters.  2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.).  3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations.  4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.

Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

10. Jorge de la Rosa (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners

Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter.  It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him.  His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady.  Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field.  One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.

On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time.  He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09.  He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season.  Maybe he never will.  If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September.  If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011.  In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.

Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...

"Narrative Likability Factor: A Metric For Humanities Majors" & The Minnesota Twins

Any of you who have read this blog before are well aware that I have no problem being conversive in sabermetrics.  This is not a intended as an anti-SABR diatribe or parody.  All I intend to suggest is that at times, and especially in the romantic seasons (i. e. spring and fall), it is easy to become immersed in baseball humanism.  Baseball humanism is the perception that the game possesses a metanarrative, something akin to a parable, or a synechdoche of American history, which makes it more than just a mechanism for enabling gamblers.

Certainly, at its worst, baseball humanism inspires crass nostalgia, old-fogeyism, and self-righteousness.  It is the undercurrent of belligerent steroid conspiracy theories, short-sighted assertions that baseball's "Golden Age" happened prior to integration, basically the entire body of Murray Chass' forgettable canon, and the abundant moralizing of other half-wit sportswriters.  Being a good baseball humanist does not, as Chass believes, mean you hate statistics and stubbornly believe that the abject coincidences of your own experience are necessarily equivalent to "truth."  Bill James and Rob Neyer, two of the most notorious voices of sabermetrics, are both apparent baseball humanists.  The power of baseball humanism (like all humanisms, for that matter) is in our hope that the game, governed by a fairly knowable system of laws, conventions, and politics, is analogous to everything else, that broiling, festering knot of opaque inconsistency and unfathomable immensity we call life.

Some of the heroes of baseball humanism are obvious: Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Curt Flood.  The powerful social implications of their careers are inestimable.  Likewise, there are antiheroes - Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, Jose Canseco - whose stories, though not to be emulated, are equally compelling.  One of the reasons we adore sport is that the lives of such athletes unfold in front of us as though they were the protagonists of a serialized fiction.  And we have great patience for every variation within the genre.  We are equally amused by the heroic ascensions of Horatio Alger (i.e. Hank Greenberg) and the absurdist tragedies of Franz Kafka (i.e. Milton Bradley).  Omniscience is limited, obviously, but not as much as proponents of privacy would expect.  Thus, we are guided along by an anonymous author whose incredible skill is his ability to write as eloquently as Michael Lewis and Buzz Bissinger, when the occasion demands, but also as amateurishly as Gene Wojciechowski and Mark Fainura-Wada, when his aims are satirical.  It's a dexterity not even John Dos Passos could equal.

One of the great joys of the postseason is joining narratives in media res.  For those players who advance deep into October, especially, a major episode is being written, one which, when we reflect on their "story," will likely help to guide our interpretation. (Clemente's story is soulful, regardless, but is made so much sweeter by his performance in the 1971 postseason.  Similar claims can be made for Bob Gibson, Reggie Jackson, Brooks Robinson, etc.)  In this season's postseason primer, I preview each team based not on their talent, but on their dramatic potential.  What narratological traits have guided them so far, what kind of stories could be yielded by a deep run in October.  Let's begin with a look at the narrative potential of the first team to officially punch their postseason ticket, the Minnesota Twins.

• Retribution Songs (Verse 1): In order to reach the World Series, the Twins will need to upset at least one and likely both of the AL East juggernauts.  New York upended Minnesota with relative ease in the ALDS a year ago, so that sting is relatively fresh for several Twinks, but the personal scars run deeper for Carl Pavano.  Pavano spent four years in the Bronx as part of the largest contract of his career ($40 Million).  During that time he managed to make only 26 starts and compiled a 5.00 ERA.  Through a combination of flukish injuries, off-the-field antics, and clubhouse scuffles, he became one of the most ridiculed figures in New York sports and a major scapegoat for the Yankees inability to get past the Division Series from '05-'08.  Last year, Pavano pitched an outstanding game (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K) against his former team in Minnesota, but the Yankees still won, finishing off their sweep.  This year, Pavano will likely get the chance to pitch in Yankee Stadium, in front of fans who unmercifully booed him for most of his tenure in New York.  Beating the Yankees is always sweet, but for Carl Pavano it would be even sweeter.
• Retribution Songs (Verse 2): If the Twins matchup with Tampa Bay in either the ALDS or the ALCS, their lead singer will be Delmon Young.  The Devil Rays made Young the #1 draft pick in 2003 and in 2007, at the age of 21, he played all 162 games and finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year balloting.  As reward, he was traded to the cold Northwest for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.  The following season, the team exorcized the "Devil" from their name and went to the World Series.  The underlying narrative was quite simple.  The entitled, bat-tossing Young had been the bad egg amongst a group of outstanding prospects, including Josh Hamilton, B. J. Upton, and Elijah Dukes.  For two seasons Young floundered for the Twins, struggling to even hold onto a starting role, while Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were key players for the Rays.  This year, however, in the parlance of our times, the "script has been flipped."  Young was on the Final Vote ballot for the All-Star game.  He leads his team in doubles (42) and RBI (105), and he just turned 25 last week, while Bartlett is in danger of losing his starting position to Reid Brignac and Garza has posted the worst ERA of his career (4.01, not that bad).  If Young can help the Twins eliminate the Rays, it would be a cold, raw plate of revenge.  This is the window of opportunity for the Rays team as it is currently constructed, featuring many of Young's longtime compadres.  Next year, Tampa will lose many key players, slash their payroll, and begin the rebuilding process.  They'd like to do so on the back of their first championship.  Standing in their way is their former top prospect.
• Overcoming Adversity: If Justin Morneau cannot recover from his concussion in time for the playoffs, the Twins will take the field without two of their three highest-paid and most popular players.  Minnesota lost long-time closer, Joe Nathan, before the season even began and Morneau, who was an MVP candidate in the first half, hasn't played since the All-Star Break.  Nevertheless, the Twins are in the running for the best record in baseball, fueling Ron Gardenhire's candidacy for Manager of the Year.  
• Dome Sweet Dome?:  This is the Twins first year in a new waterfront stadium, Target Field, which is, by all reports I've gathered, a lovely place to see a ballgame.  Moreover, its opening inspired Twins management to raise their payroll by $30 Million and resign the face of the franchise, Joe Mauer.  Nevertheless, there is still a small but vocal minority who believe the Twins sacrificed a franchise icon and one of the keys to their prolonged success by leaving the florescent glare of the Metrodome, and they can back their arguments up with a pretty potent home-field advantage demonstrated over many seasons.  Bringing home the first Twins championship since 1991 would be the most effective way of putting a sock in the naysayers.  
• Sweet Ole' Jim:  The Twins DH, Jim Thome, is high on the list of greatest players who have never won a World Series.  He hasn't even been to a World Series since 1997, and, at 40, he's not got a lot of chances left.  By all accounts, Thome is an all-around nice guy and a superb teammate.  He's also put the team on his Paul Bunyan shoulders for much of the second-half, following Justin Morneau's concussion, so he's more than just a familiar face.  In terms of "win one for the gipper"-type sentimentality, Thome is pretty easy to get behind.  

As with just about any team, you can point to several other soulful players - Orlando Hudson, Francisco Liriano, J. J. Hardy, Matt Capps - who have something to prove in the bright lights of the postseason.  The likely pairing of the Twins with the Yankees makes them feel like a natural underdog.  However, we should point out that they will have the third highest payroll of any team in this year's playoffs (regardless of how it all plays out in the NL).  And, frankly, does MLB need anymore fuel for their "if you build it, they will come" mantra?  Especially since, by "they," MLB means "the affluent."  New York and St. Louis both won championships in the opening season at their gaudy new stadiums, each within the last five years.  It's kind of a tired premise.  Still, of all the teams battling for a playoff bid, only the Reds (1990) and Rangers (19-never) have gone longer without representing their league in the World Series.

Narrative Likability Factor: B+

Who should be the Twins starter in ALDS Game 1?

With another White Sox loss (7 in a row, geesh) and another Twins victory last night, Minnesota's magic number is 2, meaning they will almost certainly be the first team to clinch, perhaps as soon as tonight. The question will then be, how eagerly will Gardenhire pursue home-field advantage?  The Twins are neck-and-neck with the Yankees and Rays at this point, so they'll have to play dominant ball over the next two weeks in order to come out with the top record, especially since following the New York series, Tampa will be getting rich on Seattle, Baltimore, and Kansas City.  

Gardy's already announced that he's going with a six-man rotation for the next couple turns, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Twins can't win a lot of those games, facing teams like Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City.  It would, however, probably require him to continue to lean heavily on relievers like Jesse Crain and Matt Capps, while playing Joe Mauer and Jime Thome almost everyday, and my inclination is that all those guys could use some rest.

I know Gardy isn't exactly a stats guys, but when it comes to setting a playoff rotation, it's hard to ignore these:

Scott Baker - Home: 8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, Away: 4-6, 5.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Nick Blackburn - Home: 6-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, Away: 3-7, 6.99 ERA, 1.70 WHIP

Brian Duensing - Home: 6-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, Away: 4-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Francisco Liriano - Home: 7-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Away: 7-4, 4.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Carl Pavano - Home: 8-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, Away: 9-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Kevin Slowey - Home: 8-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, Away: 5-2, 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

What this suggests to me is that home-field advantage makes a big difference to the Twins, not necessarily in whether or not they can win a five-game series, but in terms of which pitchers give them the best opportunity for doing so.  Frankly, there's no way I give Blackburn a start away from Target Field, regardless of his recent hot streak.  I also make sure that Pavano is starting at least one of my road games, two if that's possible.  If all other factors are moot, here's how I think you'd set it up:

w/ Home Field:

Liriano (H), Duensing (H), Pavano (R), Slowey (R), Liriano (H)

w/o Home Field:

Pavano (R), Liriano (R), Duensing (H), Blackburn (H), Pavano (R)

The other thing Gardy should take into account is the fact that Yankee Stadium is tailored to left-handed hitters, so left-handed pitchers usually fair better there, thus perhaps tempting him to go against Liriano and Duensing's home/road splits.  Undoubtedly, he's waiting to see who his opponent is before setting the rotation.  The Yankees have a .625 W% against RHP this year, compared to .574 against LHP. Tampa is the exact opposite: .561 v. RHP, .667 v. LHP.  So, basically, the argument for Pavano over Liriano to get two starts makes much more sense if the Twins are starting the series in Tampa Bay, rather than in New York or in Minnesota.  

At the end of the day, however, while I think these stats should be taken into account when deciding whether to go with Blackburn over Slowey or Baker, I want my best pitcher taking the hill for two starts in a short series, no matter what the splits say.  And the best pitcher on the Twins is Liriano, and it's not really close:

Liriano - 14-8, 3.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.38 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 0.25 HR/9, 2.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), 6.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

Pavano - 17-11, 3.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.80 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 3.2 WAR

Let me break this down a little.  The Yankees and Rays rank 3rd and 5th in the AL in homers this season.  Both teams, but especially the Yankees, score a high percentage of their runs off the long ball.  Pavano is three times more likely to give up homers.  Pavano has also been a little lucky this season in terms of batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  Generally, when hitters manage to put the ball in play, it drops for a hit around 30% of the time.  Pavano has been are 28%, while Liriano has been around 34%.  Neither is an incredible outlier, but this explains to some extent why the FIP statistic theorizes that over a prolonged period of time, if Pavano and Liriano pitched under the same exact circumstance, Pavano's ERA would be a little higher than it is (3.92), while Liriano's would be a full run lower than it is.

But what really strikes me here is the Wins Above Replacement gap, with Liriano being three wins more valuable than Pavano.  WAR takes into account things like the quality of competition, the places the pitcher made his specific starts, etc.  Basically, what WAR is telling us is that although Liriano has been a bit unlucky in terms of wins and ERA, he's about twice as valuable a pitcher as Pavano.  This, I think you'll agree, is backed up by watching them pitch.  While Liriano has suffered from injury and inconsistency over the course of his career, he has frequently shown the ability to be a dominant "Ace," as he has been doing throughout this year.  Pavano, despite an excellent performance in 2010, has never really been that kind of pitcher.  Maybe he was in 2004 with the Marlins (18-8, 3.00 ERA), but the 34-year-old version is considerably changed with long intervening track record of mediocrity.

Obviously, it would be great to see Pavano dominate the Yankees in New York, wreaking vengeance for years of ridicule and abuse.  However, this story is all the more powerful if it unfolds in game two or game three, especially if the Twins already have a series lead.  

Offseason Prospectus #8: The Minnesota Twins

I didn't watch many Twins games until late in the season, but in September and October I discovered that Minnesota had fielded a very compelling, likable team, albeit one that was obviously flawed. That the Twinkies were able to make it as far as they did, despite carrying one of baseball's worst rotations and several automatic outs at the back-end of their lineup, is a testament to Ron Gardenhire's leadership and also to the superior quality of the Twins bullpen and the top half of their lineup. It became clear, especially in the ALDS, that if you looked at only the best half dozen or so players on each team, the Twins were as good as the Yankees, or any other team in league for that matter. It was their lack of depth which proved to be their undoing. Minnesota's front office will be looking to improve at several positions before they open Target Field in 2010, but the Twins, never exactly a free-spending franchise, may be even more cash-strapped this winter as they protect the reserves necessary to sign Joe Mauer to the nine-figure deal which seems an inevitability.

During the last seven seasons the Twins have consistently maintained a payroll between $55 and $65 Million. Mauer's next contract will almost certainly earn him nearly $20 Million a season, as much as a third of Minnesota's limited resources. Add to that the $14 Million a year that Justin Morneau will be making through the 2013 season and it's utterly apparent that unless Minnesota commits to a considerable budget increase, they are going to have no financial flexibility. The signing of Mauer completely eliminates any possibility of retaining guys like Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan, and J. J. Hardy, all of whom will be eligible for free agency in the next two years, and it precludes Minnesota's ability to compete for the top tiers of free agents for the next four or five seasons at least. Can Minnesota bring home division titles, much less championships, when two players eat up 60% of the payroll?

On the other hand, letting Mauer walk is publicity suicide. He is the definition of a franchise player, a guy who not only dominates on the field, but has cultivated a personal connection with the community. Albert Pujols is probably the only analogous baseball player in today's game. In all honesty, probably the best place to look for a situation which resembles Mauer's is Cleveland, where the impending free agency of Lebron James is also haunting a city. Players like these are worth almost any amount of money. You not only build teams around them, but stadiums and brands, the material benefits of which will last even beyond the player's career. Ask the Chicago Bulls, or the Baltimore Orioles.

Free Agents:

Orlando Cabrera (35) SS

Joe Crede (32) 3B

Ron Mahay (39) RHRP

Carl Pavano (34) RHSP

Mike Redmond (39) C

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser (28) RHSP

Jesse Crain (28) RHRP

Matt Guerrier (31) RHRP

J. J. Hardy (27) SS

Brendan Harris (29) SS/3B

Francisco Liriano (26) LHRP

Pat Neshek (29) RHRP

Delmon Young (24) LF

ETA 2010?:

Justin Huber (27) 1B/DH

Jeff Manship (25) RHSP

Jason Pridie (26) CF

Anthony Swarzak (24) RHSP

The Twins ability to duplicate their 2009 success will be predicated primarily upon the health and effectiveness of their starting rotation. Three of Minnesota's best young pitchers - Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, and Pat Neshek - missed all or most of 2009 with injuries. Two others, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, struggled to regain the command and control they had displayed in previous seasons. If you had told Ron Gardenhire in April that Brian Duensing would be a key member of his September rotation, he probably would've assumed the Twins had long since lost any hope of contention. If at least a couple of their young guns can rebound, taking the pressure off Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, than the Twins will have a formidable rotation. Also, prospects Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship have both showed enough promise to offer Twins fans some solace in the event of another rash of injuries.

In addition to Mauer, who doesn't actually qualify for free agency until next year, the Twins have three major contractual decisions this winter. The most pressing is clearly Orlando Cabrera. OC was the sparkplug during the stretch run last fall, after being acquired from the A's, and provided some postseason heroics to boot. Gardenhire publicly applauded his veteran presence. The acquistion of J. J. Hardy, however, leaves Cabrera without a position. The Twins have suggested they would be willing to negotiate with him if he would consider moving to second base, but the former Gold Glove winner has understandable reservations. Cabrera and his agent gained considerable leverage this week when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration, which means negotiations with other teams will not be hampered by his A designation and dramatically reduces the chances of his resigning with Minnesota.

The Twins may pursue alternatives like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, but more likely will choose to either role the dice again on Alexi Casilla, who had a tough year in '09 but is still very young, or hand the position to the defensively spectacular, but offensively-challenged Nick Punto.

One could argue that Minnesota's needs at third base are even more pressing. In 2009, the Twins got next to nothing from the hot corner. Joe Crede's back kept him out of the lineup most of the year and hampered him when he was in it. His replacements - Punto, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris - were considerably worse, none of them achieving an OPS above 675 (league average = 763). There are an abundance of affordable third basemen available. The Twins could gamble on a power bat coming off an injury, like Crede, Aubrey Huff, or Troy Glaus. They could go a more defensively-minded direction with Pedro Feliz. Or for a little more money they could woo a more well-rounded veteran like Adrian Beltre or Miguel Tejada. My guess is that they'll go cheap and risky.

The final and probably least critical decision for Twins management is whether or not to retain Carl Pavano. Pavano made a dozen starts for the Twinks after arriving via a trade with the Indians last summer. He was hardly dominant (4.64 ERA), but he looked like a prototypical innings-eater, going six or more in ten of his twelve starts. On a staff that has tons of talent, but no pitcher older than 28, Pavano could be an inexpensive stabilizing presence.

Recent history has been pretty good to teams opening new ballparks. In 2006 the Cardinal christened the new Busch Stadium with a championship and last year the Yankees did the same in inauguration of their latest launching pad. Twins fans must hope that Target Field resembles these precedents rather than those of Citi Field (2009) and Nationals Park (2008).

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Denard Span (L)

SS J. J. Hardy (R)

C Joe Mauer (L)

1B Justin Morneau (L)

RF Michael Cuddyer (R)

DH Jason Kubel (L)

3B Troy Glaus (R) FA

LF Delmon Young (R)

2B Nick Punto (S)

SP Scott Baker (R)

SP Kevin Slowey (R)

SP Carl Pavano (R)

SP Nick Blackburn (R)

SP Francisco Liriano (L)

CL Joe Nathan (R)

SU Jon Rauch (R)

SU Matt Guerrier (R)

LOOGY Jose Mijares (L)

MR Pat Neshek (R)

MR Jesse Crain (R)

SWING Brian Duensing (L)

C Jose Morales (S)

IF Brendan Harris (R)

IF Matt Tolbert (S)

OF Jason Pridie (L)