Hippeaux's Mailbag

I finally posted a functional email address earlier this month (sorry about that).  Since then, there has been a trickle of questions, mostly fantasy related.  Here are some answers which I thought might be relevant for others:


"So, Hippeaux, do you still hate the Bradley/Silva trade?" - Eric


I definitely deserve this.  I reemed Jim Hendry for making this deal and ridiculed it again and again over the course of the offseason.  Silva didn't show the slightest sign of weakness until his last start.  He's been among the Cubs best starting pitchers so far (2-0, 2.90 ERA).  Meanwhile, Bradley has continued a descent into irrelevancy by beginning the year with a 684 OPS and then exiling himself from the team to deal with psychological issues.  So, yes, Hendry is probably feeling pretty satisfied with himself right now.  Silva's been a contributer.  Marlon Byrd has been outstanding (956 OPS).  Alfonso Soriano is hotter than he's been since the middle of 2008.  Even the Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen move has worked out pretty well so far (1.80 ERA in four appearances).  If the Cubs make the postseason, even if they stay in the hunt until August, I promise to write Jim Hendry an extended apology.  If they don't, expect more venom.


"I paid thirty-some dollars for Greinke in a mixed 5X5 league.  After a month, he's got zero wins.  Should I try to trade him?  I need pitching.  What can I expect to get?" - Steve

I ranked Zack Greinke outside of my top tier of pitchers this February for two reasons: 1.) It would be almost impossible to duplicate the season he had in 2009, so some regression was inevitable, and 2.) He still plays for the Royals, who still stink, perhaps even more than they did last year.  As a result, I don't own Greinke in any leagues.  That said, I certainly don't think Greinke's '09 was a fluke.  Even if he has several more rough outings than he did last year, he'll easily be a legitimate fantasy Ace.

After six starting in '09, these were Greinke's 5X5 numbers: 6-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 54 K, 45 IP.
This season, at the same juncture, they look like this: 0-3, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP.

His strikeout rate is down a little bit, but mainly, he's just been unlucky.  Only one team, the Red Sox, has gotten to him for more than two earned runs.  Three times he's left the game with a lead and wound up with a no decision.

Sure, it's quite possible that Greinke will suffer a season of disappointments, ala Matt Cain in '07 and '08, but even if that happens, he contributions to your rate stats will make him a worthy #2 starter.  And, if you trade him now, you risk "selling low" and missing out on the stretch where he wins six in a row or eight out of ten.  At this point, I actually covet Greinke a little more than I did in the preseason.  These are the only pitchers who I would trade him for straight-up: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, C. C. Sabathia, Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.

"I know you've seen the PECOTA projections already.  In the ESPN magazine Baseball Think Factory says that the Angels have only a 2.5% chance of winning the AL West.  How can that be?" - Tim

I received this message before the season began, so I'll begin with the response the sent Tim at that time:

"I'm continually surprised by how poorly the 2010 Angels are performing in preseason simulations, which consistently have them finishing behind the Rangers, Mariners, and even the Athletics.  I've said repeatedly that I think the rumors of the Angels demise have been greatly exaggerated.  I don't expect they will win the division by ten games, as they did in '09, but I think they'll be at least an 85 win team and as safe a bet as anybody to win the AL West.  My only explanation for the Angels poor performance in simulations is that they had several players who had career years in '09: Jered Weaver, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar, Juan Rivera, etc.  Even Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu had among their best seasons.  More often than not, regression is to be expected.  I certainly think the younger players are capable of continuing to build on what they did in '09, but it is true that at some point guys like Abreu and Matsui will hit the wall.  Will it be this year?  I don't know."

It's still very early, but the Halos performance so far suggests the boys at Baseball Think Factory and Baseball Prospectus get paid the "big bucks" for a reason.  The Angels are 12-17 and, more significantly, their -43 run differential is better than only Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore (and not by that much).  Still, it's a relatively small sample and they are only three games back, so one good week could be enough to get me right back on the Angels bandwagon.

I've watched Los Angeles quite a bit and I'll admit they've got some serious holes.  The Brandon Wood experiment has been a complete bust and, unless something dramatic happens, I think will be put to rest before the end of May.  Erick Aybar has not adapted to hitting leadoff and the Angels don't have anybody else who appears better suited to that role. 

The starting pitching, which I expected to be the Angels strength, despite the departure of John Lackey, has been the team's most serious issue (5.00 ERA, 12th in A.L.).  The hired guns, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro, have each shown improvement in recent starts after tough Aprils.  I expect both will be at least serviceable behind the clear Ace, Jered Weaver.  But Joe Saunders has been especially abysmal (1-5, 7.04 ERA).  The Angels top prospect, Trevor Bell, continues to dominate at AAA, so don't be surprised if Saunders loses his spot.

Mike Scioscia has never been afraid of shaking things up.  Don't be surprised if Saunders, Wood, and Brian Fuentes soon find the end of their leashes.  The Angels depth of options, combined with the fact that no team in the AL West appears ready to run away from the rest, are cause for continued optimism.

Let it be. Let it be.

Milton Bradley is a Seattle Mariner.  His primary focus this spring is getting fit, staying healthy, and proving he can be the middle of the order presence the Mariners desperately need if they intend to compete in the tight AL West.  His former team, the Chicago Cubs, training right down the road in Mesa, Arizona, should be dedicated to erasing the memory of last season's disappointing performance.  And yet, the story of the disastrous relationship between Bradley and his former employers refuses to die.

Hopefully this is merely a result of the inevitable Spring Training microscope.  Reporters don't have much to ask about, with few developments on the field, so they reopen the scars of the previous year.  For the most parts, the Cubs players have said all the right things: Bradley wasn't a bad guy, they wish him well with his new club, they're focused on the task ahead instead of last year's failures.  After all, Bradley was bad in 2009, but frankly, so was everybody else in the Cubs lineup (with the exception of Derrek Lee).

One wonders where the Cubs players learned to be so politic, considering their general manager, the man who should be setting the tone for the whole organization, refuse to leave Bradley alone.  Sure, Bradley isn't pulling any punches either, as he's also being bombarded by questions he'd probably rather not answer, but Jim Hendry has every reason to take the high road and he defiantly hasn't, choosing instead to fling his own set of barbs and accusations (primarily that Bradley had a bad attitude, is a narcissist, and is lying about the racist treatment he got from Chicago fans).

Hendry has dramatically misevaluated the situation.  As long as it was just Bradley trying to drag his old team through the mud, he just looked embittered.  His reputation for drawing controversy throughout his journeyman career gave his statements even less credence, even though some former Cubs (like LaTroy Hawkins and Jacque Jones) have made similar accusations.  However, compared with Jim Hendry's defensive and blustering statements this morning, Milton Bradley's appears downright poised in his ESPN interview.

Hendry's need to bring Derrek Lee and Marlon Byrd into a conversation where they frankly don't belong serves to dignify Bradley's statements.  Doth the lady protest too much?

As a Cubs fan this bothers me on two levels.  Obviously, I hate to have my team and their fans accused of any sort of racial prejudice.  I hate even more that it appears increasingly evident that there is at least an element of truth...still.  Yes, I've been to my fair share of Cubs games over the last decade and though I've never actually heard a racial epithet hurled from the bleachers, it wouldn't surprise me if it happened occasionally (as it probably does anywhere too many white people are filled with too much Old Style).  However, if this did become a routine occurrence, accompanied by un-postmarked hatemail and threats to his family, as Bradley reports, it was the Cubs duty to take action.  It only takes a few fans getting tossed from their $100 seats to solve at least one part of the problem.

Jim Hendry (like Bud Selig) is feigning ignorance.  This is hardly the first time somebody has questioned the sportsmanship of the Wrigley Field faithful.  In the '60s, the original "Bleacher Bums," who, to be fair, pestered most opposing players, were particularly cruel to Lou Brock and Curt Flood, African-American outfielders on the rival Cardinals, to the point of drenching them with beer and pelting them with tennis balls (this story is recounted in several places, including Flood's exceptional autobiography).  As late as the 1980s, conventional wisdom held that black fans went to the South Side, to see the White Sox, while the Cubs catered to Caucasians.

Calling Milton Bradley's accusations "ridiculous" does not necessarily make them so.  This is merely the latest of Jim Hendry's desperate attempts to prove that everything is business as usual for the organization, when that is apparently not the case.

The Definition of Insanity

Einstein famously mused that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Fans of the Chicago Cubs can't help but ask, based on this justification, if the men in charge of their favored franchises haven't fallen clear off their rockers.

On the final day of 2009, Jim Hendry of the Cubs announced the signing of Marlon Byrd to a three-year, $15 Million contract. First off, I grant that figure is well shy of the $36 Million he gave Milton Bradley almost exactly a year ago, but it is nonetheless a sizable amount to pay an outfielder in his early thirties with an extensive injury history who is coming off a career year...playing at the Ballpark in Arlington, a stadium famous for offensive inflation.

Consider a few precedents...

Gary Matthews Jr.:

In 2006, at the age of 30, Matthews Jr. scored 102 runs, hit 19 HR, and posted a 866 OPS while playing for the Rangers. He had 164 more plate appearances (690) than in any other season of his career. His 2006 performance, combined with his consistent defensive prowess, led the Angels to sign him to an enormous contract (5 yr./$50 Mil). Over the first three seasons of that contract he has averaged 59 R, 10 HR, and 56 RBI, with an OPS of 708. His plate appearances have declined in every season, to just 360 in '09 and he is now considered nothing more than a very expensive fourth outfielder.

David Dellucci:

In 2005, at the age of 31, Delluci slammed 29 HR for the Rangers, 12 more than in any other season of his career. That season he also posted career highs in plate appearances (518), runs (97), hits (109), RBI (65), and walks (76), as well as an 879 OPS, prompting the Indians to sign him to a three-year, $11.5 Million deal. In two full seasons with the Tribe, he managed only 514 at-bats and a 700 OPS, 15 HR, and 66 runs scored.

Kevin Mench:

Mench posted two straight seasons of 25 HR and 70 RBI with the Rangers in '04 and '05, prompting the Brewers to demand that he be a key component in the trade that netted the Rangers Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. With the Rangers, Mench had been good for a long ball about once every 23 at-bats. With the Brewers that rate doubled, and he managed just nine more homers in '07 and '08, before dropping out of baseball entirely.

Milton Bradley:

And then, of course, there is Milton Bradley. Sure, Bradley showed a lot more promise throughout his career before his stop in Texas than most of these jokers, but 2008 was nonetheless a serious anomaly. Bradly, at the age of 30, posted career highs in runs (78), HR (22), RBI (77), walks (80), batting average (.321), on-base percentage (.436), and slugging percentage (.563). Hopefully, Jim Hendry can remember what happened next. Upon arriving in Chicago, despite making almost exactly as many trips to the plate (473 compared to 509 in Texas), his OPS dropped by more than 200 points, from 999 to 775.

Perhaps the Cubs front office is really convinced that the reason for the drastic drop in production demonstrated by these examples is not the exit from the friendly confines of Arlington, but rather the separation from Rudy Jaramillo, the former Ranger hitting coach they recently acquired. Don't drink that Kool-Aid. Here is the rank of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington for Home Run and Run Production the last two seasons:

2008 - #1 in R, #5 in HR

2009 - #7 in R, #3 in HR

Now Wrigley Field isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise, but...

The thing that angers me most about this signing is that the Cubs are pretending that this solves the "centerfield problem" which has been plaguing the club for at least the last decade (some would probably argue that the Cubs have had a centerfield problem ever since they traded Rick Monday to the Dodgers prior to the '77 season). Marlon Byrd ain't no goddamn centerfielder. Yes, over the course of his career, Marlon Byrd has played more innings in center than anywhere else, but his teams have been constantly trying to change that. The Rangers put him out there last year in desperation, because Josh Hamilton was injured and Byrd was the next best option (at least until Julio Borbon came along). Marlon Byrd has never posted a range factor anywhere near the league average. In 2009, out of the twenty centerfielders who played as many innings as he did, Byrd finished 12th in range and 15th in UZR at -6.0. FanGraphs rated his arm as the worst among AL centerfielders.

While the rest of baseball is prioritizing defense, the Cubs have a left-fielder in center, a second-baseman at shortstop, and the adventurous Alfonso Soriano in left. Hendry has added another lengthy contract which simultaneously makes the team older, slower, and more right-handed. What a mess.

Jim Hendry Discovers Existence of Contract Worse Than Milton Bradley's, Trades For It

A few months ago I read an article about a UFC fighter who was renowned for getting pummeled by some of the best fighters in the history of the sport before they were rich and famous. He had been fighting for an insanely long time (and pretty much any amount of time in the UFC is insane), but had compiled, at best, a .500 record. He said (obviously, I'm paraphrasing here), "If you can't beat me, you haven't got a future in this sport."

And that, my friends, is exactly how major league general managers should view Jim Hendry. Today, another young, ambitious GM on the rise, Jack Zduriencik of the Seattle Mariners, cut his teeth in the industry by fleecing Hendry and left Cubs fans like myself wondering yet again whether gross incompetence can really be considered a "curse." Over at MLB Notebook, Zach Sanders is calling it reason enough to label Zduriencik "the best GM in baseball." I'm as big a Zduriencik fan as anybody, but he'll need to accomplish a little more before I'll consider him the equal of Epstein, Williams, Beane, and Jocketty. In this case, he's just one in a long line of crafty execs who have stolen Hendry's lunch money and wedgied him in the process. Let's recount:

Shortly after taking over the Cubs prior to the 2003 season, Hendry traded Dontrelle Willis and Julian Tavarez to Larry Beinfest's Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Willis would go on to win the 2003 Rookie of the Year and pitch 3 2/3 scoreless innings in the World Series. He averaged fourteen wins a season for Florida over the next five years. Matt Clement won fourteen games once. He and Alfonseca combined to go 40-42 for the Cubs over the next three seasons. In the cruelest of ironies, the Marlins ousted in the Cubs in dramatic fashion in the NLCS, on their way to their second championship in seven years. The Cubs have won two championships in the last 102 years.

The following season Hendry made a big splash in July when he landed Nomar Garciaparra for next to nothing from a fresh-faced GM named Theo Epstein. Garciaparra, hobbled by a lingering back injury which would dog him for the rest of his career, played in only 105 games over the next two seasons, but he collected almost $17 Million from the Cubs, not including the World Series share his ex-teammates voted him when the Red Sox won it all that season.

After two consecutive years of helping other franchises win championships, Jim Hendry took a couple years off, dedicating himself instead to the free agent market, where he picked up players like Jacque Jones, Jeremy Burnitz, Todd Walker, and Neifi Perez. Remember them?

Obviously, I'm being hard on Hendry. It's easy to say he's an idiot for trading away guys like Willis, Ricky Nolasco, Mark DeRosa, and, most recently, Jake Fox, but one also has to recognize acquisitions like Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Rich Harden, and Kenny Lofton, all of whom came over in trades and made immediate (in some cases lasting) impacts, and for whom Hendry gave up very little.

However, this offseason his actions have an unmistakable hint of desperation. He is a man who, having succeeded in keeping a highly demanding job for a fairly long duration, knows his tenure is coming to an end. He had, no doubt, convinced himself he would be the one to finally bring a championship to Wrigleyville, which would give him the "do no wrong" reputation with the fan base currently enjoyed by Theo in Boston and Kenny on the South Side. But, unless the Cubs have a miracle season, I see very little chance Hendry makes it to the end of his current contract (which expires after the 2012 season).

On cannot deny that he has overseen one of the more successful decades in the franchise's troubled history. In seven years at the helm, he led the Cubs to five winning seasons and three playoff appearances. Not since the early 1970s had the Cubs won with such frequency. And the last time the Cubs made three playoff appearances in a decade, FDR was the president.

However, twice now Hendry has built expensive teams which came close, teased fans with their potential, but could not give the North Side what they've been craving for the last century. Dusty Baker was supposed to be the savior and he looked like it during 2003, but he was run out of town after dreadful performances in '05 and '06. Then Lou Pinella was supposed to be the savior and he looked like it when he took the Cubs to the playoffs two years in a row in '07 and '08, but a heavily favored '09 club fell flat and now looks frighteningly familiar: old, overpaid, and without an identity.

Pressured by the Chicago media and perhaps by Pinella, Hendry was made to feel this winter like he had to trade Milton Bradley, who was, undeniably, a failure in his first season as a Cub. However, while Bradley was a disappointment because he didn't equal the rate of production he had displayed for the Rangers, Athletics, and Dodgers, Carlos Silva, who is signed for as much money and as many years as Bradley, is a failure of a whole different kind. Silva isn't only not worthy of the mega-contract he's signed to, he is no longer worthy of a major-league roster spot, something the Mariners realized when they axed him from their starting rotation after only six appearances in 2009. Yes, they later sent him to the disabled list with a "right shoulder impingement," but he never had any surgery, because the real reason the Mariners no longer wanted him on the active roster was his ungainly 8.48 ERA.

And lest you believe Jim Hendry's suggestion that perhaps Silva has rediscovered himself in the Caribbean League this winter, I will point out to you that just last week Carlos made his one and only start for Caribes de Anzoategui. He pitched less than three innings, yet managed to allow six hits, three homers, and four earned runs. All told, he has now pitched nine full innings in Venezuela, allowing eight earned runs. His opponents, who are primarily prospects and fringe major leaguers, are hitting a cool .410 against him.

The fact is, there was never a whole lot in Silva's arsenal to rediscover. How he managed to convince Bill Bavasi to give him a four-year/$48 Million contract will remain one of the great baseball mysteries of the 21st century. In the two years directly preceding Silva's signing, he went 24-29 for Minnesota, with a 5.01 ERA. He was marketed as an innings-eater, having pitched 180+ in four consecutive seasons, but even if he were to regain his best form, Silva has no business moving in front of Sean Marshall or Tom Gorzelanny on the Cubs depth chart. Let them eat the innings, because they might develop into something worthwhile.

Milton Bradley, at his best, has proven he can be one of the very best hitters in all of baseball. This is a player who made an All-Star team and led the AL in OBP and OPS as recently as 2008. THE ONLY THING CARLOS SILVA HAS EVER LED HIS LEAGUE IN IS HOME RUNS ALLOWED. Perhaps Milton Bradley, reunited with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, could've regained some semblance of his 2008 production. But I guarantee you, regardless, his production, even at his absolute worst, would've well surpassed what the Cubs will get from Silva, who I doubt...rather, I hope never makes a single pitch for Chicago.

Offseason Prospectus #6: The Chicago Cubs

When the 2009 season began, it seemed like almost a forgone conclusion that the Cubs were going to win another NL Central crown. They had retained every significant player, other than Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood, from their 2008 squad, which paced the NL. They had added Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg, which seemed like more than enough to maintain the status quo. Moreover, the 2008 runner-up, Milwaukee, had lost their top two starting pitchers and the Cubs other top rivals, the Cardinals and Astros, hadn't made a peep all offseason, much to the dismay of their fans. It looked, during last winter, like the NL Central GMs, via inactivity and apathy, had conspired to hand another title to the Cubs. Maybe they recognized, as every Cubs fan should've recognized, that put in the position of overwhelming favorites, the Cubs would do what they have always done in such situations: choke.

In 2008, three Cubs starters - Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster - won fourteen or more games. In 2009, none of them got more than 12 wins. In 2008, the Cubs had five hitters with 20+ HR and 75+ RBI. Only Derrek Lee reached those numbers in 2009. Milton Bradley's OPS dropped by over 200 points. Alfonso Soriano had a batting average (.241) which was the worst in the NL among qualifying hitters, 25 points lower than his previous worst season. Over the previous two seasons, Kevin Gregg had posted a 3.48 ERA for the Marlins. For the Cubs, his ERA climbed all the way to 4.72. Aramis Ramirez played quite well, but missed half the season. Geovany Soto, Rich Harden, and Carlos Zambrano also missed significant time. Only Ryan Dempster made 30+ starts.

Nonetheless, despite disappointments and misfortune, somehow, at the trade deadline, the Cubs were half a game up on the Cardinals. But, while the Cardinals GM, John Mozeliak, acquired Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo, and John Smoltz, to bolster his team for the stretch run, the Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, decided (or was instructed) to stand pat, perhaps assuming that the ship was about to right itself. Quite the opposite turned out to be the case, as August was Chicago's worst month (and St. Louis's best), and by the end of it, the Cubs were 10 games back.

Over the course of this summer, what had been perhaps somewhat unfounded optimism this spring turned into profound, even excessive cynicism. Several Cubs fans and commentators called for the complete explosion of the current team. Fire Jim Hendry. Fire Lou Pinella. Release Bradley. Trade Zambrano. Bench Soriano. Play Jake Fox at second base. We heard it all. Nobody seemed to notice, however, that despite falling painfully short of their third consecutive division title, the Cubs still had a winning season. It was the first time the Cubs put together three straight winning seasons since 1972. So, it's not like we're talking about the Royals here.

Assuming most of the team comes back healthy in 2010 and returns at least to their career norms, the Cubs will once again have one of the more loaded teams in the NL. There is work to be done, certainly, but with the sale of the team finally nearing completion and Pinella entering the last year of his contract (and perhaps the last year of his managing career) the front office has extra incentive to make waves. If the Cubs don't make the 2010 playoffs, Hendry will undoubtedly fall on the axe.

Free Agents:

Kevin Gregg (32) RHRP

Rich Harden (28) RHSP

Reed Johnson (33) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Jeff Baker (29) 2B/3B

Neal Cotts (30) LHRP

Mike Fontenot (30) 2B

Tom Gorzelanny (27) LHSP

Angel Guzman (28) RHRP

Koyie Hill (31) C

Carlos Marmol (27) RHRP

Sean Marshall (27) LHRP

Ryan Theriot (30) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Esmailin Caridad (26) RHSP

Andrew Cashner (23) RHSP

Tyler Colvin (24) OF

Scott Maine (25) LHRP

The Cubs have begun the Hot Stove season with a little housecleaning. Hendry fired their hitting coach and hired Rudy Jaramillo, who is rumored to have had a big part in invigorating many careers in Texas, including Milton Bradley's in 2008. He also quickly resigned left-handed reliever, John Grabow, and dealt right-handed reliever, Aaron Heilman, to Arizona for a couple of middling prospects. At least one of the pieces in the Heilman deal, Scott Maine, is likely to spend a little time in the Cubs bullpen next season.

Next up for Hendry are decisions about Bradley and Rich Harden. Bradley was not only unproductive this past season, but also became something of a sideshow at Wrigley and in the clubhouse, resulting in his suspension for the season's final weeks. Many believe he will be traded for next to nothing this offseason, with the Cubs eating a big portion of his salary. However, the signing of Jaramillo suggests the Cubs might be resistant to the idea of dealing a high-upside player at the absolute nadir of his rocky career. There is nothing about Bradley's history that suggests he can't bounce back and be a valuable commodity in 2010. As a Cubs fan, I'm also sick of Hendry paying big money to corner outfielders who underperform for one season and are then given up on (i.e. Jeremy Burnitz, Jacque Jones, & Kosuke Fukudome). Better to have Bradley fail again in '10 than to pay him to play for another team while the Cubs make an additional $30,000,000 mistake (i. e. Johnny Damon).

Harden is, likewise, a high-risk/high-reward commodity. There isn't a single pitcher on the free agent market this winter (John Lackey included) with the potential for dominance of the type that Harden displayed in the latter stages of 2008 (5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 89 K in 71 IP after joining the Cubs for a dozen starts) and the middle portion of 2009 (3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 60 K in 50 IP during an eight start stretch in July and August). At only 28, it is still very likely that he will put together a healthy campaign at some point which earns him serious Cy Young consideration. His high-end potential drives up his price, but his injury history (only once has he made 30+ starts) means that few teams will be willing to offer him a long-term deal. The Cubs may simply have to outbid everybody else for a one or two year extension.

I am hoping that Hendry chooses to keep both Harden and Bradley, if for no other reason than it will then be easier for him to address the remaining holes on the Cubs roster. If he has to spend time and money looking for another starter and corner outfielder, than the best-case scenario for the offseason is merely piecing together a team which looks as good as the one that managed just 83 wins this season. However, if Hendry retains Harden and Bradley, he should still have opportunity and funds to address at least one of the following positions: centerfield, second base, bullpen.

My personal preference would be for the Cubs to pursue a top-flight defensive centerfielder, either Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp. This would give Chicago a four-man outfield rotation. Kosuke Fukudome would become primarily a platoon player, given his 667 OPS against lefties over the last two seasons, and defensive replacement. Soriano could get days off against especially tough right-handers. Bradley would get frequent opportunities to fight off his nagging leg injuries. Most importantly, Crisp or Cameron would help close the outfield gaps considerably (particularly when Fukodome was also in right), providing a great deal more comfort for the Cubs pitchers.

Mike Fontenot struggled mightily as an everyday player in 2009, so Hendry may be tempted to pursue a free agent second-baseman like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, perhaps even Chone Figgins. Personally, I would be willing to give the Fontenot/Jeff Baker platoon another chance, if it meant applying that free agent money to more pressing needs (i.e. Harden, Crisp). Both Fontenot and Baker are scrappy players, who have shown the capability for giving good at-bats and playing solid, though not spectacular, defense. Perhaps one could step up and take the job permanently. Bounce-back performances from the rest of the lineup would do a great deal to take the pressure off them and I think we could expect at least a 725 OPS out of the #8 spot. That would be acceptable.

Many will argue that the bullpen needs work. It was conspicuously bad for key stretches of the '09 season, especially during Gregg's meltdown right around the All-Star Break, but their overall ERA (4.11) was almost exactly what it was in '08 (4.10) and things stabilized considerably after Marmol took over closing and Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, and John Grabow assumed the primary set-up roles. Relievers are, by nature, risky. I would rather take my chances with the relatively inexpensive ones the Cubs have in the system than attempt to bring in somebody like Brandon Lyon, who would cost around $5 Million and could easily turn into the second-coming Kevin Gregg (as recently as 2008, Lyon posted a 4.70 ERA as the closer for Arizona).

Finally, as I said, Hendry has every reason to play for this season and this season only. Pinella in entering his swan song. New ownership will be breathing down everybody's neck. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez (player option), and Ted Lilly could all be free agents a year from now. I expect Chicago to be aggressive this offseason, both on free agency and trades. Hendry has some expendable pieces from which to construct a major deal. In Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir, he possesses players with major-league power, but they are 1B/DH types, for whom there is no room in the Cubs lineup. There are also a number of pitchers and position players in the minor leagues which other teams would covet (Starlin Castro is the only one who's off-limits, I'm guessing). The Cubs probably don't have enough to acquire Roy Halladay or Adrian Gonzalez, but that's not what they need either. They could go after somebody like Curtis Granderson or Dan Uggla. Hendry has never been reluctant to barter for big-name players. His trades for Kenny Lofton, Ramirez, and Harden keyed pennant runs. But, he also gambled less successfully on Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre. The worst thing Hendry could do, for himself and for the franchise, is become trigger-shy now. The Cubs remain positioned to make that long-awaited run deep into the playoffs. The same probably won't be true a year from now. Roll the dice. Mortgage the farm. (Insert your favorite non risk-adverse cliche here)

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/31):

SS Ryan Theriot (R)

RF Kosuke Fukudome (L)

1B Derrek Lee (R)

3B Aramis Ramirez (R)

LF Alfonso Soriano (R)

CF Marlon Byrd (R)

C Geovany Soto (R)

2B Mike Fontenot (L)

SP Carlos Zambrano (R)

SP Ted Lilly (L)

SP Ryan Dempster (R)

SP Randy Wells (R)

SP Tom Gorzelanny (L)

CL Carlos Marmol (R)

SU Angel Guzman (R)

SU Sean Marshall (L)

LOOGY John Grabow (L)

MR Jeff Samardzija (R)

MR Jeff Gray (R)

MOP Neal Cotts (L)

C Koyie Hill (S)

1B/3B Chad Tracy (L)
IF/OF Jeff Baker (R)
1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir (L)

OF Xavier Nady (R)

Fantasy Notes

• Don't Pay For Steals: A couple of early round options, Ryan Braun and Russell Martin, have both gotten hot at the plate after slow starts, but they are still falling short in the category that provoked many roto owners to take them in the top two or three rounds.  Martin has stolen only four bases, putting him on pace for ten on the year, still great for a catcher, but half as many as he nabbed in 2007.  Braun has stolen only two, after grabbing fifteen in two-thirds of a season last year.  Many owners went into 2008 thinking he would have a legitimate shot at 30/30.  Granted, both of these players are massively valuable, regardless of whether they are stealing bases, but both were selected higher because of their high five-category expectations.
• The Worst Offense of the Modern Era: Many pundits, including myself, predicted that the San Francisco Giants lineup would be among the worst we could remember.  Let me be clear, they haven't been good (14th in the NL and 27th in MLB in runs scored), but they have had some very pleasant surprises.  First off, Aaron Rowand, who appeared to be grossly overpaid, moving from the cozy confines of Philadelphia to the wide-open spaces of PNC Park, where you need superhuman Barry Bonds-like strength to hit the ball out from gap to gap.  The home-runs have not exactly been easy to come by (he's got 8), but he is tied for 4th in the league (with teammate Ben Molina) in hitting, at .328.  He's driven in 36 runs and has a 924 OPS.  Molina's numbers (.328-6-38) are also very strong for a player expected to be a low-round option.  However, both of these guys were probably selected in your draft, or picked up shortly thereafter.  The Giant who is still available in many leagues is hitting .279 with 37 runs scored.  He's been getting on base at an impressive .363 clip, has decent power (12 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR), and has stolen eleven bases, that's good for eighth in the National League.  Those steals make him extremely valuable in just about any format.  The player: Fred Lewis.  Keeper league owners especially need to start paying attention.  Lewis is in his second season and is 27, moving into his baseball prime.  It seem likely that, if the Giants are wise (big IF), Lewis will stabilize left field and the leadoff spot, allowing them to focus their off-season free agent search on right-fielders and corner infielders.
• Triple Crown in Texas?: There's been much discussion of the season Josh Hamilton is having, as their should be.  What nobody's mentioning is that while he was first in the AL in average, homers, and RBI, he's second in the AL and on his own team in OPS.  He has had the great benefit of hitting in front of the Toymaker, Milton Bradley, who is batting .328 with a dozen dingers, 38 RBIs, and a league-leading 1050 OPS.  Bradley's talent is beyond dispute and now, with the opportunity to DH at least part of the time, the Rangers can protect his injury-prone body.  Hamilton and Bradley both represent the beauty of recovering from adversity.  Ron Washington has appeared to be a calming presence on both of them.  If the Rangers approach .500, they both could be legitimate MVP contenders.