Ugh La La...

The trading season got kick-started this week when the Florida Marlins, baseball's current leader in unabashed greed, sent Dan Uggla to their NL East rival, the Atlanta Braves, for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn.  Uggla's name has been circling the rumor mill for well over a year, so nobody should've been surprised that the Marlins eventually pulled the trigger.  Bu, many were critical of what they got in return: a utility infielder coming off a career year and a rookie reliever who probably profiles as a LOOGY.

Uggla, I grant, is a likable, somewhat under-the-radar run producer.  In five seasons he's been utterly consistent - 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank.  And he plays a position, second base, that isn't replete with power-hitters.  Since integration (1947), only two second-basemen have had more homers than him at his age: Alfonso Soriano and Ryne Sandberg.

That said, like Soriano, he doesn't play the middle infield very well and is likely headed for a position switch.  His UZR in 2010 was -7.4.  Only Skip Schumaker, the converted outfielder, was worse among National Leaguers.  Uggla has been consistently near the bottom of the league in every defensive metric ever since his rookie year.  It seems fairly certain that sooner or later, perhaps as soon as next season, Uggla will be moved to a corner position, where his offensive numbers, while still solid, will no longer dramatically separate him from his peers.

Uggla is potentially a pretty one-dimensional hitter.  His .287 average in 2010 was a career high, as was his .369 OBP.  He doesn't steal bases.  He strikes out a ton.  What he does well, however, is hit homers and he sees lots of pitches.  Both things the Braves desperately need.  Uggla's 4.20 PPA was good for eleventh in baseball in 2010.  That, as much as his power, may explain the Braves interest.  Among their regulars, only Derrek Lee and Jason Heyward were particularly patient hitters in 2010, and Lee is headed into free agency.  Paired with Heyward, Brian McCann, and possibly a healthy Chipper Jones, Uggla might help force opposing pitchers to work a little harder than they did this year.

It is quite possible that Uggla's recent campaign represents the furthest extent of his talents.  He'll be 31 before next season begins.  He got a relatively late start, as a 26-year-old rookie.  So, he's got one more year of arbitration, which will probably cost the Braves somewhere in the vicinity of $10 Million.  And he will probably be looking for $10-$15 Million per season for his next contract, which will take him into his late 30s.  Considering his defensive limitations and his age, it will be risky to sign him to a long-term deal, especially if he has another relatively big season in 2011.

The Marlins, to nobody's great surprise, prioritized cheapness.  Omar Infante, like Uggla, is under contract for only one more season, but at about 25% of the cost ($2.5 Million).  He's also two years younger than Uggla.  Mike Dunn is still two full seasons away from being eligible for arbitration and will be 26 when the 2011 season begins.  So, all told, depending upon who Dunn replaces in the Marlins bullpen, they'll be getting somewhere around $7-$10 Million in salary relief.

In terms of overall production, they may not be giving up as much as it initially appears.  Infante's 2010 breakout, which got him elected to the All-Star team, surprised pretty much everybody. But, maybe it shouldn't have.  Between '08 and '09 he hit .298 with a 753 OPS, 69 R, and 67 RBI in roughly a season's worth of at-bats (520).  From that level, it isn't a ridiculous jump for a 28-year-old to hit .321 with a 775 OPS, 65 runs, and 47 RBI in 471 AB.

Even if Infante can maintain his high average (which I doubt, .300 is probably a reasonable expectation), he's still no match for Uggla offensively.  However, Uggla's offensive advantage is balanced to some extent by Infante's advantage on defense, where he is relatively effective and very flexible.  Infante logged innings at five different positions in 2010 and was, at least according to UZR, average or better at four of them.  Such "utility" allowed Infante to log a WAR of 2.7 in 2010.  Uggla has only beat that number twice in his five seasons (including 2010).

Finally, Michael Dunn, I think, is actually the key to this deal.  Since being converted into a reliever, Dunn has raced through the minors, dominating at every step of the way.  And it didn't stop when he was promoted to big leagues during the second half of 2010.  In 19 innings, he posted a 1.89 ERA and 12.8 K/9.  It's a small sample size, but combined with his minor league stats it suggests that he will be an effective lefty middleman immediately and certainly has the stuff to pitch in the late innings eventually, especially if he cuts down on his walks.  Dominant left-handed relievers are a rare breed, which is why guys like Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes are still getting relatively big paycheck in their forties.  Every team needs one and the Marlins may have found theirs on the cheap.

While some have suggested that the Uggla trade is an obviously one-sided payroll dump that potentially upsets the balance in the NL East, I actually think both teams got better with this trade.  The Braves got a middle-of-the-order presence to bolster their mediocre lineup.  It may be exactly what they need to make them a more serious contender next October.  The Marlins got better defensively, as they will be able to slide Chris Coghlan in at second base and use Infante all over the diamond.  They also filled a key role in their bullpen and gave themselves some payroll flexibility.  One could suggest that John Buck got signed with the money the Marlins saved on Dan Uggla.

It bothers me as much as anybody that the Marlins have less than $30 Million in commitments for 2011, even though we're well aware they have at least that much money just from revenue-sharing, but we shouldn't let that prejudice effect our ability to analyze this trade.  The Marlins are parting ways with a player who is getting more expensive, but is likely to be less productive.  They are getting younger, undervalued players in return.  We generally applaud teams like the Rays and Twins for making these types of decisions.

Ancient Spirits of Evil Trade Mumm-Ra to Decepticons for Skywarp & Dreadwind; Rumors that Former ThunderCat May Sign Blood-Pact With Boston Red Sox

I'm always thrilled when my least favorite NL team makes a trade with my least favorite AL team which has the potential to make both teams better. It's not hard for me to hate the Yankees or the Braves, the two most dominant franchises of my lifetime, but it's hard to find fault with a trade like this. Brian Cashman and Frank Wren both deserve the gratitude of their fans - their evil, evil fans - this holiday seasons.

To Braves: CF Melky Cabrera (25), LHRP Michael Dunn (25), RHSP Arodys Vizcaino (19)

To Yankees: RHSP Javier Vazquez (33), LHRP Boone Logan (25)

In the words of Mr. Rosenberg at It's About The Money, well, it's all about the money. Javier Vazquez was a Cy Young contender in 2009 (he finished 4th), but he also possessed the Braves third largest salary (behind Chipper Jones and Derek Lowe). Considering Javy's age and extensive track record, it's pretty unlikely that he'll ever be more valuable than he is right now, so it made great sense for Wren to deal him this offseason, gaining the Braves both greater financial flexibility and some solid young players in return. As added incentive, Atlanta has the rare good fortune of sitting on a stockpile of quality starting pitchers, with Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens all under contract through at least 2012.

To nobody's great surprise, the New York media has been a bit nonplused by the re-acquisition of Vazquez, who pitched for the Yankees in 2004, going 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 198 innings. Personally, I don't see a whole lot to complain about, even though the ERA was a little high. The real story, however, was Vazquez's fluky late-season slide, perhaps the result of an unreported injury. In his first 18 starts he went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 7.2 K/9. But in his last fourteen he was 4-5 with a 6.92 ERA and 6.2 K/9. This was completely uncharacteristic of Vazquez, who over the course of his career has actually been a slightly better pitcher after the All-Star Break (Pre: 4.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.0 K/9; Post: 4.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.3 K/9). One cannot expect Javy to post anything resembling his '09 line (2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.8 K/9) pitching in the AL East and making half his starts at homer-happy Yankee Stadium, but with the New York lineup behind him, he's as safe a bet as anybody to again notch 15+ wins.

Clearly, the player most likely to have an immediate impact is Vazquez, but Melky Cabrera is an often overlooked and underrated player who at only 25 years of age has already played in nearly 600 major league games, including three postseasons and a World Series. He's a switch-hitter with modest power (13 HR in '09) and modest speed (10 SB in '09), who plays excellent defense, handles the bat well (only 59 K in 540 PA in '09), and still has plenty of room for development. In '09 he posted career highs in 2B, HR, SLG, and OPS, suggesting that his power, at the very least, is still trending upward. Melky's addition allows Atlanta to move Nate McLouth to left field, improving the outfield defense at two positions, and Matt Diaz to the bench, where he 921 career OPS against left-handers makes him an excellent pinch-hitter and platoon man (McLouth posted a measly 688 OPS against southpaws in '09).

At first glance, the exchange of Boone Logan and Michael Dunn seems a bit strange. They are both 25-year-old left-handed relief pitchers. Both have great strikeout rates, but problematic walk rates. Most scouts would probably tell you that their abilities are almost indistinguishable. But once again, it's all about the money. Boone Logan already has three full seasons and 164 major-league appearances under his belt with the Braves and White Sox. He'll become a millionaire through arbitration this spring. Mike Dunn, on the other hand, having been buried in an organization that rarely rushes young relievers, has logged only four innings at the major-league level, all this past September, so he won't be eligible for arbitration until 2013. Thus, the Braves are getting a pitcher who has essentially the same skills and upside as Logan, but for a much better price. The Yankees get a pitcher who has more professional experience and thus may be slightly better prepared for the pressure of pitching in the Bronx.

Finally, a full analysis of this trade won't be possible for many years to come, because the most talented player in the deal may be 19-year-old Dominican starting pitcher, Arodys Vizcaino. In the New York-Pennsylvania League last summer Vizcaino made a serious impression in ten starts. At just 18, he posted a 2.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9 rate. Clearly, Vizcaino won't be ready to join the Braves rotation until at least 2012, but he could turn into a frontline starter. Or...like so many young stud pitchers, he may fizzle out as innings wear him down. We'll just have to wait and see.