Sunday Showdown Situation

It would have been easy for the Phillies to play complacently this weekend.  It has certainly been the habit of the other postseason-bound franchises.  Minnesota has been giving away games since the moment they clinched.  Even the Yankees and Rays, playing for home-field advantage and a division title, have seemed uninspired of late, as though it matters little to them where or whom they play in the ALDS.  Fair enough.  

Charlie Manuel and his Phillies, however, realized, facing a three-game finale with the division rival Braves, that if they didn't attempt to put the stake in Atlanta's heart, they might very well regret it.  They were, after all, just 8-7 against the Braves entering the weekend, and Atlanta has been near unbeatable in their home ballpark all season.  If the Braves managed to clinch the Wild Card they could very easily become a "team of destiny" playing in front of retiring manager Bobby Cox and be Philadelphia's opponent in the NLCS.

Though that scenario is still possible, big wins behind Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo made it significantly less likely, as the Phils send Cole Hamels and his 2.28 ERA in the second half to the mound on Sunday looking to send Atlanta home for good.  If the Braves lose and the Padres beat the Giants, Atlanta's season will be over, as both West Coast team will advance.  If the Padres and Braves both lose, they would be on track for a one-game Wild Card playoff.

Both Atlanta and San Francisco could've made the playoff picture a lot simpler by winning a single game this weekend, but their four losses combined have opened up the possibility of not only a Game 163, as we've had in each of the last three seasons, but possibly the first ever Game 164.  If the Braves and Padres both win tomorrow, than the Giants will have to remain in San Diego to play a fourth game to decide the NL West Champion on Monday.  The loser of that game would then have to travel to Atlanta for a one-game showdown on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card.

Obviously, as a baseball fan, I'm totally psyched about this, as these "win or go home" games have proved absolutely scintillating, but such a road would probably spell doom for the teams involved, as they would be unable to set their rotation for the NLDS, which begins on Wednesday.  The Giants, for instance, would probably throw Tim Lincecum on Monday, which would rule him out for the first two games of the NLDS and limit him to just one start in that series.  On Tuesday, the Braves would likely turn to Derek Lowe, who won every one of his September starts (5-0), thus making him similarly limited in the first round, were they to advance.

All three of these teams are built on pitching.  San Francisco and Atlanta are particularly dependent on their frontline starters.  If they are unable to take advantage of that strength, they are almost a synch to get rolled over by a superior, balanced team like the Phillies or Reds.

-----

As a brief aside, the correlation between wins and good fortune has been fervently debated lately, thanks to the truly ridiculous fact that Felix Hernandez has only 13 victories, despite being far and away the best pitcher in the AL this season.  We can add a little fuel to that fire by pointing to the year of Ubaldo Jimenez, which ended today with eight inning of three-hit ball against the Cardinals (he left the game tied at zero).  Because Jimenez had 15 victories at the All-Star Break, yet will finish with just 19, many will conclude he scuffled in the second half, perhaps even suggest his first three months were flukish.  A closer look however shows that Jimenez has made nine quality starts in his last thirteen outings, yet has only the four victories to show for it.  On three separate occasions he went 8 innings, yet took a loss or a no decision.  His strikeout rate has actually gone up in the second half, while his homerun rate has gone down.  Jimenez may have been a little lucky before the break, but he has more than made up for it with bad luck after the break.  Don't be fooled.      

A Guide To September Viewing (9/6-9/16)

For those of you utilizing MLB.tv or MLB Extra Innings, here are some series you might want to mark your calender for:

Monday, 9/6 - Thursday, 9/9: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

This four-game series began yesterday with a win for the Rockies, led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez.  That win was Colorado's fourth in a row and brought them within 4.5 games of the Padres and 5 of the Wild Card leading Phillies.  It doesn't take a tremendous memory to recall the Rockies tendency towards September momentum.  Meanwhile, the central-leading Reds need to fight off complacency and assure they don't allow the Cardinals to climb back into the race.

Thursday, 9/9 - Sunday, 9/12: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

The Padres finally put an end to their prolonged losing streak on Monday against the Dodgers, but now hold only a game advantage over the Giants, who have won five of their last six.  Regardless of what transpires on Tuesday and Wednesday, the division lead will be on the line when these two teams face off at PETCO this weekend.  With the Padres young rotation starting to show its fatigue, it's difficult to argue that they have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups.  The climactic battle is undoubtedly the highlight, as Tim Lincecum faces Mat Latos on Sunday afternoon.

Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Things don't get any easier for the Friars, as they begin a ten-game road trip by heading to Denver.  At 44-22, the Rockies boast the second-best home record in the NL (behind Atlanta).  To make matters worse (for San Diego, that is), the Rockies have won eleven of the first fifteen games in their season series, including a sweep in San Diego to begin the month, so they don't exactly head to the high altitude brimming with confidence.  It's not hard to imagine them leaving Colorado in third place.

Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

Both teams seem safely on course for postseason berths, but with seven games left against each other, the division, and home-field advantage, are still on the line.  The series kicks off with stellar pitching battle between two Cy Young contenders, C. C. Sabathia and David Price.

Tuesday, 9/14 - Thursday, 9/16: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

Assuming the Sox can maintain their winning ways, having strung together seven in a row going into tonight, this could be a battle for the last remaining AL playoff spot.  The Twins are saddled with injuries, but have still managed to win at an impressive clip, recently sweeping the Rangers.  They've dominated the season series up to this point, taking ten of fifteen, but far more will be riding on this series than any that came before it.

The State of The Hippeaux

As you've probably noted, the site has been on hiatus for most of the last two months, as I've been in the process of relocating to Long Beach, CA, as well as dealing with a particularly busy summer, personally and professionally.  This hiatus has no doubt resulted in the loss of a substantial portion of the loyal readership I've fostered over the last few years, and for that I'm certainly sorry.  However, this does give me an opportunity to perform a moderate redesign and refocus.  Although a continued hectic schedule will probably prevent me from maintaining the posting frequency which preceded this hiatus, I will be covering the pennant races and postseason in some detail, as well as the hot stove and fantasy preseason, as in the past.  Again, I apologize for the delay and thank all those who emailed me to voice their concern.  Now, a few observations on the time I missed...

I've been waiting all season for a freefall from the Braves and Padres, two teams who I doubted going into the season and saw cause for calling "flukish" throughout the first half.  As both are certainly headed for 85-90 win seasons, clearly I have cause to alter that estimation, however, we are finally seeing the chinks in their armor.

San Diego, clearly the most surprising franchise of the 2010 season, not long ago looked like the sure-fire NL West champs, but an eight-game losing streak has brought them back within three games of the Giants and they now face a particularly grueling schedule.  The Friars have only one series left against a losing franchise (four games against the Cubs at the end of September), while they have twelve games against the two teams closest on their heels (Giants & Rockies) and seven against other contenders (Reds & Cardinals).  Their vaunted young rotation, clearly the reason for their unexpected run this season, may also end up being the cause of their demise.  Clayton Richard and Mat Latos are already well beyond their career highs in innings and Wade LeBlanc will soon join them.  The wear and tear is starting to show.  The team's ERA has risen in every month to a high of 3.71 in August.  With a mediocre lineup, even after the infusion of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick, the Padres cannot afford to give up four runs a game, especially against teams like the Giants, Cardinals, and Rockies.  Unfortunately for San Diego's faithful, I think the selling of postseason tickets may have been a little premature.

In Atlanta, the issue is not so much that the Braves are diving (they still won eighteen games in August), as that the two-time NL champion Phillies are finally healthy and appear to be starting their annual September streak.  They've won seven of their last eight, now sit just one game back of Atlanta, and are looking forward to a fairly soft September, as their only remaining games against contenders two series against the Braves.  If the Braves do get caught (and I think they inevitably will), they are still very much alive in the Wild Card.  A serious cause for concern, however, is the Braves 29-38 record on the road, which is where they will be spending most of the next month.

In the American League we may be seeing one of the most anticlimactic pennant races in recent memory, as Boston, despite being on pace for 92 wins, is now seven games back of Tampa Bay in the Wild Card, and Texas long ago wrapped up the AL West.  Our only hope for late-season drama comes in the Central, where the Manny-infused White Sox are four games back of the Twins.  With Justin Morneau still out indefinitely with concussion issues and Kevin Slowey also shelves, Minnesota does have some chinks in its armor.  Since the All-Star Break, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Denard Span all of OPSs well under 800.  J. J. Hardy has been in and out of the lineup.  On the other hand, Minnesota's front four - Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and Scott Baker - have combined to go 21-6 since the break, so modest run-scoring has usually been more than enough.  The three-game set in Chicago in the middle of September could prove crucial.

Here are my postseason seeding predictions:

AL:

Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers

NL:

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The Myth of "Timely Hitting"

As the Padres were getting manhandled by Ubaldo last night, their broadcast team regaled us with how San Diego "is using the classic recipe for success, good pitching and timely hitting."  They pointed out that while the Padres are batting only .249, which is below the NL average (.258), they are hitting .295 with runners in scoring position.  The splits are even more spectacular when you look at OPS:

Padres Overall: 715
Padres RISP: 928
(+29.8%)

The Padres broadcasters were clearly indicating that their team had the ability to step up their game in the clutch, but unknowingly they were providing me with the evidence that San Diego's unexpectedly strong start is patently unsustainable.

This material has been covered by better men than me, but basically, there is no such thing as a team which is better in clutch situations.  Over the long haul, the Padres performance in critical situations will look much like their overall performance, which isn't very good.  We can demonstrate this by looking at last year's playoff teams.  If "timely hitting" is really a key ingredient in the "recipe for success," presumably the best teams will have splits something like the Padres, as they dramatically rise to the occasion in run-scoring situations.  Here's the data:

Offseason Prospectus #21: The San Diego Padres

At the All-Star Break last season, I preemptively declared the Padres the worst team in baseball.  At the time the Padres were in the midst of a seven game losing streak and a particularly rough stretch in which they went 13-37.  However, San Diego really turned things around down in the final two months, going 37-25, despite the fact that they shipped away Jake Peavy, Scott Hairston, Chad Gaudin, and Jody Gerut and got zero production out of injured veterans Brian Giles, Cliff Floyd, and Chris Young.

The secret of San Diego's success, besides a monster season from Adrian Gonzalez, was the emergence of a quartet of young hitters.  A 22-year-old first-baseman turned outfielder named Kyle Blanks posted a .514 slugging percentage in a third of a season.  Right around the time I was making my ill-fated prediction, the Padres installed Wil Venable in right field full time, after which hit a dozen homers and managed a respectable 814 OPS.  They also installed a 22-year-old Rule 5 pick at shortstop, Everth Cabrera, and although he was clearly in a bit over his head at first, he also had his share of hot streaks, playing well enough to become the Padres full-time starter going into 2010.  And, they gave Tony Gwynn Jr. his first shot at a starting job (after three years riding the pine in Milwaukee).  Gwynn also ran a little hot and cold, but he's disciplined (48 BB/65 K), speedy, and plays great defense in the spacious centerfield of Petco Park.

Things went so well down the stretch in 2009 that San Diego fans have every reason to be optimistic this spring.  However, I'm going to stick to my guns.  Although I like some of the Padres talent, Blanks and Cabrera particularly, I still don't think there's enough of it, and the youngsters are going to suffer the usual growing pains in their first full season as regulars.  Moreover, the Padres ownership appears to be in desperate financial straits, eager to unload anybody who's making more than the minimum.  First it was Peavy.  Most recently it was Kevin Kouzmanoff, who was due for a somewhat sizable arbitration award and got shipped to Oakland last week.  And rumors continue to circle that A-Gonz and Heath Bell may soon follow.  If that happens (and maybe even if it doesn't), San Diego's payroll will sink below the level that the Marlins recently got chastised for.  It's hard to compete that way (although Florida does a decent job of it) and the NL West is pretty tough.  Although Petco will alway be a great place to see a ballgame, I expect it to be a very long season for the Padres faithful.

The worst team in baseball? My answer might surprise you.

Almost from the moment they came into existence five seasons ago, the Washington Nationals have been a baseball punchline. And, again this season, they possess, predictably, the worst record in baseball. There isn't a lot for the Nats management to hang their hats on. After all, they began the season with a South American scouting scandal which eventually led to the resignation of their general manager and have since seen the demotion and/or trading of three of the "budding stars" they had designed their 2009 advertising around: Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Joel Hanrahan. However, it hasn't been all bad. The Washington offense, led by Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, and Christian Guzman, is 9th in the NL in runs scored (it would be their highest finish ever) and 5th in OPS. For the most part their pitching has been atrocious, but "Ace" John Lannan has proven himself to be more than a fluke, going 6-5 with an excellent 3.49 ERA. And rookie Jordan Zimmerman is looking like a solid major-league pitcher as well. Since the beginning of June he is 1-1, but with a 2.41 ERA and 31 K in 33 IP. They will presumably soon be joined by the #1 pick, maybe the most-touted pitching prospect ever, Stephen Strasburg, as well as some combination of other recent top prospects Sharon Martis, Scott Olsen, and Ross Detwiler, each of whom has shown flashes of brilliance (and a considerable amount of mediocrity) during their limited stints so far in 2009. In other words, the Nats might accurately be conceived of as a franchise on the rise...headed in the right direction.

The San Diego Padres, however, are in quite the opposite position. In the middle of May, with Jake Peavy still healthy and Adrian Gonzalez streaking, the Padres put together a highly unexpected 10-game winning streak, climbing back to .500 in the process, since then they have been the worst team in the sport, going 12-27 (.307). Peavy was lost, probably for the season. And, the league having realized the Padres hadn't a single other hitter worth being afraid of, stopped pitching to Gonzalez. On May 16 he was hitting .302 with 15 HR and 29 RBI, since then he is hitting .214 with 9 HR and 23 RBI.

The Padres don't have a single regular (200+ AB) with a batting average above .267 (David Eckstein). Their .236 team average, if it persists (and there's no reason to think it won't, since their best months are probably already behind them), would be the worst registered by a major league franchise since the 1992 New York Mets (.235). The just traded their second-best hitter, Scott Hairston, to the Athletics for some mediocre pitching prospects and rumors swirl around that veterans who have any value at all, guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff and David Eckstein may soon follow. Gonzalez, who is signed through 2011 at a reasonable price and is a fan favorite due in part to his Mexican heritage (San Diego, of course, has a sizable Mexican-American community), is probably the only player who is off-limits...and maybe not even him.

San Diego's management realizes that as poor as the product they are putting on the field currently is, it may get even worse. The Padres' farm system was ranked 29th (out of 30) prior to the season by Baseball America and their #1 pick (#3 overall) was a "toolsy" teenage outfielder, who can't be project to join the big-league roster for at least three or four seasons. The Padres had hoped to re-stock by dealing Peavy at the deadline, but he's all but worthless now until he proves himself fully healthy. It's going to be a rough few seasons for San Diego fans, who may see more than they would like of Everth Cabrera, Will Venable, and Jody Gerut.

The New Yankee Stadium (Ad Nauseum?)

The good news (for seamheads at least) is that the prevalence of homers at the new Yankee Stadium has promoted the discussion of "park factors" in the mainstream sports media and even, in some cases, outside of sports.  NPR's Talk of the Nation: Science Friday hosted a roundtable discussion this past week (check it out).  While we must continue to temper our discussion until more data has been accumulated, as Jonah Keri wisely points out, what is not being properly discussed (at least in the numerous reports I've read) is why a home-run friendly ballpark is not a good thing for the Bronx Bombers.  I've heard consistent speculation that perhaps the Steinbrenners slightly altered the dimensions and constructed the park in order to promote offense and sell tickets.  But, of course, as we've all heard way, way too many times, what sells tickets in New York is winning.  And home-run hitting parks are not particularly conducive.

Since Oriole Park at Camden Yards (generally considered the first of the "retro parks" which not predominate) was opened in 1992, baseball has introduced 20 new ballparks (18 brand-new stadiums, and 2 expansion sites) which are currently in use.  From that group, I looked at the teams that played at the most friendly hitter's park and pitcher's parks.  I left out the preponderance of parks which were either more or less neutral or haven't been open long enough to show a consistent advantage.

Hitter-Friendly: 

Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) - 16 seasons,  4 winning seasons, 1 Div., 1 Wild Card, 0 Pennant, 0 World Series 

Cincinnati Reds (Great America Ball Park) - 6, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) - 14, 5, 0, 2, 1, 0

Detroit Tigers (Comerica Park) - 9, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0

Houston Astros (Minute Maid Park) - 9, 7, 1, 2, 1, 0

Philadelphia Phillies (Citizen's Bank Park) - 5, 5, 2, 0, 1, 1

Texas Rangers (Ballpark at Arlington) - 14, 5, 3, 0, 0, 0

73 seasons, 28 winning (38.4%), 7 Division Titles (9.6%), 6 Wild Cards (8.2%), 13 Playoff Appearances (17.8%), 4 Pennants (5.5%), 1 Championship (1.4%)

Pitcher-Friendly:

Cleveland Indians (Progressive Field) - 14, 9, 7, 0, 2, 0

Florida Marlins (Dolphin Stadium) - 15, 5, 0, 2, 2, 2

Los Angeles Angels (Angel Stadium) - 12, 9, 4, 1, 1, 1

San Diego Padres (Petco Park) - 5, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0

San Francisco Giants (AT&T Park) - 12, 8, 3, 1, 1, 0

Seattle Mariners (Safeco Field) - 9, 5, 1, 1, 0, 0

67 seasons, 40 winning (59.7%), 17 Division Titles (25.4%), 5 Wild Cards (7.5%), 22 Playoff Appearances (32.9%), 6 Pennants (9.0%), 3 Championships (4.5%)

Obviously, many other things factor into a team's success, but when you look at this relatively large cross-section of data you can see why the Yankees and their fans would prefer that their stadium not be "Coors Field east" as some have been calling it.  Teams that play in pitcher's parks are 20% more likely to have winning records, almost twice as likely to make the playoffs, and three times as likely to win World Series.  

There may be several reasons for this.  There is the cliche, "good pitching beats good hitting," a motto emphasized by teams like the Giants and Padres who have stayed competitive in many recent seasons despite have very mediocre offenses.  

There is also the pragmatic conclusions voiced general managers in Texas and Colorado, that the top free agent pitchers don't like to go places which are inherently dangerous to their ERAs.  So, teams with hitter's parks end up overpaying for guys like Mike Hampton, Kevin Millwood, and Eric Milton.  Meanwhile, teams with pitcher's park get deals on pitchers trying prolong or rebuild their careers, guys like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Carl Pavano, and Randy Wolf.  And young pitchers can have their confidence ruined by fly balls turning into tape-measure blasts.  Just ask David Nied, Jeremy Bonderman, or Brandon McCarthy.

Chicks dig the long ball, right?  Inflated offensive numbers also means inflated salaries for hitters.  Not only does a team like Colorado have to overpay to lure pitchers, but they have to hand out obscene contracts to keep players like Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, or Larry Walker.  Great hitters all, don't get me wrong, but playing in say, San Francisco, for the bulk of their careers would've cost each of these guys millions of dollars.

While the general managers in pitcher-friendly environments can compensate to some extent by building around speed, defense, and gap-hitters and have consistent success, a similar formula has not yet been found for the hitter's park.  Perhaps last year's Phillies will be the model.  However, the struggles of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Brad Lidge to begin this season may be another sign of how difficult it is to win consistently in a launching pad.  If Yankee Stadium maintains its current homer-happy pace, I expect their will be serious renovations in the offseason.  That may be the easiest and more inexpensive way to prevent themselves from becoming a power-laden .500 team.  

The Gaping Holes

This week I'm taking a look at positions which are, as yet, conspicuously unfilled. This is different from positional battles, in which several players with potential are vying for one slot, such as Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury in Boston or Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson for the Nationals, but spots which are completely lacking viable options. For instance...

Baltimore Orioles - Shortstop

Miguel Tejada, coming off the worst season of his career, his first plagued by injuries, was dealt to the Astros, officially ending the steroid dynasty in Baltimore and starting what promises to be a prolonged rebuilding phase. The problem is that the position in the Orioles' infield occupied by Cal Ripken for a decade and a half (and by Tejada for the past four seasons) has no heir apparent on the horizon. The O's have begun spring training with Luis Hernandez as the frontrunner to man the space on Opening Day, but while Hernandez shows moderate defensive promise, his career OPS in the minors is only 621 and has fallen steadily as he moved up through the system. He would be, undoubtedly, the worst player with a starting position in the major leagues, possibly the worst hitter to make a 25-man roster. However, Baltimore's other options, Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum, also have very limited offensive potential and have no business playing shortstop.

So, the question is, will Baltimore essentially concede defeat at a critical position or will they sign or trade for a semi-respectable replacement. Even if they choose the latter, which I assume they will, the options remain limited. The only unsigned free agent middle infielders are Neifi Perez and Tony Graffanino. Perez is in the midst of serving an 80 game suspension for amphetamines and Graffanino is a 36-year-old journeyman who hasn't played more than 22 games at short in any of his twelve big-league seasons. Clearly, neither is a superior option to Hernandez.

The trade market is also bleak, but not as much so. The White Sox, having traded for Orlando Cabrera and signed Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez, would probably part with Juan Uribe for a lukewarm body (preferably one that clocks above 90 MPH). Uribe is certainly no Ripken, as his .235 average over the last two seasons demonstrates, but he has been a starting shortstop for half-a-dozen years, is still in his twenties, hits for power, and plays slightly better than league-average defense. In an infield that includes Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora, Uribe would not stand out as the glaring weakness.

If they want to be more ambitious they could attempt a trade within their division for Boston's Julio Lugo. Lugo was a major disappointment last year after signing a big contract. Boston might be willing to eat a significant portion in order to make room for top prospect Jed Lowrie, the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2007 (this in an organization that boast prospects like Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz). Lugo is 32, only an average defender, and hasn't been any better at the plate than Uribe since he left Tampa Bay at the 2006 trade deadline, but he costs twice as much. Uribe's contract only goes to the end of 2008, but Lugo is signed through 2010. Boston isn't likely to eat enough of that money to make is a wise move for the Orioles.

If Baltimore is willing to deal some of their stockpile of young pitching, they might be able to procure a promising young big-league ready shortstop like the Dodger's Chin-Lung Hu or the Angel's Maicer Izturis, both of whom are blocked with their current organizations, but the asking prices would be very high. Desperation measure might include Clint Barmes, Jack Wilson, or Ronny Cedeno (possibly piece of the rumored trade with the Cubs for Brian Roberts). Whatever the case, I sincerly doubt that the Orioles will take the field April 1 with a shortstop who couldn't hit .250 at AA.

San Diego Padres - Left Field

Unfortunately, I can imagine the Padres beginning the season with some combination of Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon in the lineup everyday, even though neither has ever had more than 339 at-bats in a season. In a platoon situation, switch-hitting DaVanon would get the lion's share of starts and Hairston would face lefties, against whom he has a very respectable 812 career OPS (compared to 704 against right-handers). However you look at it, neither player is a legitimate regular, especially on a notoriously low-scoring team which claims to have playoff aspirations coming out of a deep division. To a certain extent it is hard for me to take San Diego seriously, regardless of their left-fielder, with Jim Edmonds and Tadahito Iguchi representing their only offensive upgrades. There was a time when Edmonds and Brian Giles (combined with the underrated Adrian Gonzalez) would've comprised an intimidating middle of the order. But that time has past. If the Padres are going to have any hope of contending, they will have to upgrade in left field and upgrade in a major way. Remaining free agents like Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders are not likely to put them over the top.

What the Padres do have is Chase Headley. The 24-year-old third baseman owned AA last season with an OPS of 1017. There would undoubtedly be some growing pains, but he would be a defensive upgrade over reigning three-bagger Kevin Kouzmanoff. The Kouz, raking at a .317 clip with 13 HR in the second half of 2007, could potentially move to left where he would be slightly less of a butcher on defense...perhaps. In the hard-fought NL West, however, the Padres likely will not have the luxury of allowing a promising youngster to mature at the big-league level, as Kouzmanoff and Alex Gordon did in 2007.

The Padres have been rumored in trades for Jason Bay and Coco Crisp, both of which appear to have petered out. Andre Ethier, Xavier Nady, Marlon Byrd, and Jay Payton would all be "Plan B" options that still represent a sizable upgrade over the DaVanon/Hairston platoon. Ethier, who is blocked by Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp in L.A., has the most potential of the bunch, but also comes at the highest price. Ethier really struggled in big ballparks last season, hitting below .200 (in limited at-bats) at Petco, RFK, and Shea Stadium.

Florida Marlins - Catcher

The Marlins let Miguel Olivo sign a contract in Kansas City, which might not appear to be a considerable loss, but Olivo has hit 16 HR in each of the last two seasons and he threw out 33% of runners in 2007 (4th best among MLB regulars). Olivo got high marks from Joe Giradi when he was managing in Florida, and Giradi knows a thing or two about catching. The Marlins have a very young pitching staff with tons of potential, but now are without an established backstop.

The incumbent is Matt Treanor, who was Olivo's primary back-up last season. At 32, he has never appeared in more than 67 games or had more than 171 at-bats. Last season he showed good patience with a .357 OBP in limited time, but as an everyday player he will be among the easiest outs in the league. Moreover, he doesn't exactly dominate the running game. He threw out only 19% of basestealers in 2007 (after throwing out an impressive 47% in '06). Presumably, however, he knows the pitching staff and has their trust, so he'll probably get at least a couple of starts a week.

The new blood is Mike Rabelo, who spent 2007 as a rookie under the tutelage of Ivan Rodriguez in Detroit. Rabelo, 27, showed decent offensive potential in the minors, hitting around .275 for four consecutive seasons and showing a little power (9 HR in 100 G in 2006) as he developed. Rabelo gunned down a respectable 28% of basestealers last year. He will be given the opportunity to assert himself as a starter, but doesn't exactly project as a valuable asset offensively or defensively.

Florida isn't likely going anywhere this season in the stacked NL East, so they won't sacrifice money or prospects to bring in a veteran. But the Marlin program, as outlined by their World Series runs in '97 and '03, should have them back in contention sometime in '09 or '10. That program has always included a top-flight catcher (I-Rod in '03 and Charles Johnson in '97), so expect the Marlins to start thinking about an upgrade by midseason. They have a deep farm system and a stacked bullpen, plenty of arms which contenders (and non-contenders) are likely to covet. Texas (Gerald Laird, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez), Arizona (Miguel Montero), Anaheim (Jeff Mathis, Hank Conger), and Baltimore (Guillermo Quiroz) might be viable trade partners.