My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...

NL East:

Thanks in large part to the foresight and creativity of a front office led by CEO David Montgomery, former GM and advisor Pat Gillick, and current GM Ruben Amaro, the Phillies have been to the playoffs in four straight years and, following an offseason which featured the surprise return of Cliff Lee, they are the prohibitive favorites in the National League once again.

However, they've had a rough spring.  First, they lost the services of their promising rookie outfielder, Dominic Brown, to a wrist injury which will probably cost him at least half the season.  Also, their brittle closer, Brad Lidge, has been sidelined for at least a few weeks.  And, most importantly, the team's best hitter and defensive whiz, Chase Utley, is beleaguered by an injury for which there is, at this point, neither a confident diagnosis or a timetable for return, fueling speculation that the five-time All-Star may be out for the season, if not longer.

With Jayson Werth, the Phillies most productive hitter in 2010, now playing for a division rival, there are now some gaping holes in Philadelphia's lineup, which not so long ago was the best in all of baseball.  They opened their season yesterday with Jimmy Rollins and his 737 OPS since 2007 hitting third, while the 38-year-old Raul Ibanez provided protection for Ryan Howard.

But, while the Phillies offense may be a shadow of its former glory, the rotation is being heralded as one of the greatest ever.  That may be presumptuous, but the Phillies do have a quartet of Aces and arguably the two best starting pitchers in the game, Lee and Roy Halladay.  Teams like San Francisco and San Diego proved only a year ago that a deep, dominating rotation can take you a long way, especially in the National League.  And, despite its growing flaws, nobody's comparing the Phillies lineup to the Padres.

The Braves, who eeked into the playoffs as a Wild Card last season, have been a somewhat popular pick this preseason to upset Philadelphia.  Their viability depends upon the progress of some very young players on whom they are depending heavily: Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor.  Although I'm willing to admit this is a frightening collection of talent, I'm not sure we can expect it to avoid the inconsistency which is generally expected from young cores.  If they are to do so, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Nate McClouth will need to be healthy and productive...

I would, in fact, observe that the Florida Marlins are a team composed very similarly to the Braves.  They've got tons of talent on both sides of the ball, but much of it is not yet established at the major-league level.  What the Marlins have that the Braves do not is a proven stud in his prime hitting in the middle of the lineup.  I think this gives them a minor advantage, although I could see either team winning anywhere from 75 to 95 games with a few good breaks.

Philadelphia Phillies 91 W
Florida Marlins 86 W
Atlanta Braves 85 W
Washington Nationals 66 W
New York Mets 62 W

MVP Candidate: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Cy Young Candidate: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
Comeback of the Year: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
Breakout Candidates: Logan Morrison, Marlins; Anibal Sanchez, Marlins; Ian Desmond, Nationals

NL Central:

The Brewers are a "wild card" team in every sense of the word.  They have an extremely high Narrative Likability Factor (for me, they are this year's version of the 2010 Rangers).

In last year's preview of the NL Central there were a few predictions on which I can hang my hat.  First, while everybody else was picking the Cardinals to run away with the title, I noted that they were "not as complete as some would have you believe," lacked "a whole lot of compensatory depth," and that "the Cardinals lineup looks a little tepid."  Correct on all counts.  Thank you.

I also noted that "the real Wild Card here is the Cincinnati Reds" and that "they could become an NL version of the '08 Rays."  Again, not terribly far off.

Unfortunately, the team I expected to outperform both the Cardinals and the Reds was the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished back of both, in third place.

The Brewers major problem was a familiar one: starting pitching.  They addressed it in a major way this offseason by trading for both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.  As I wrote a few months back, these trades signal Doug Melvin's intention to "go for it" after nearly a decade of patient building.  Melvin mortgaged the farm for two front-line starters to slot in between Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf.  Next offseason he faces the possibility of losing two of his offensive lynchpins, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, potentially pressing the reset button on all his work and progressively raised expectations.  To retain his job, I think Melvin needs a playoff appearance, at the very least.  

Surmounting Cincinnati is, however, no mean task.  The Reds were the NL's offensive powerhouse in 2010.  There's no obvious reason why that should change.  In addition, they seem to have an army of high-upside young pitchers.  This is a team built to win not only now, but for many years to come.  The Reds have pretty much their entire roster under control for at least the next two seasons, with several key players wrapped up into the middle of the decade.

Cincinnati Reds 97 W

Milwaukee Brewers 93 W

Chicago Cubs 82 W

St. Louis Cardinals 74 W

Pittsburgh Pirates 70 W

Houston Astros 63 W

MVP Candidate: Prince Fielder, Brewers & Ryan Braun, Brewers

Cy Young Candidate: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds

Comeback of the Year: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs

Breakout Candidates: Jay Bruce, Reds; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

NL West:

From my perspective, this is the toughest division to call in 2011.  It's hard to argue with the reigning World Series Champs, who have a dynamic young core and the potential to get better via the resurgence of Pablo Sandoval and the ascendence of Brandon Belt.

That said, we should remember that prior to 2010, this division was considered a two horse race between the Rockies and the Dodgers.  Each of those teams also possesses an impressive stable of young talent entering their primes.  As such, the NL West features three teams with established identities, but who still have plenty of upside and who are hungry to prove themselves.  The Giants will have a hard time shaking the label of "fluke," given their status as an extreme underdog going into the 2010 playoffs.  The Dodgers, after getting to the NLCS two years in a row with basically the same team, are eager to shake off the bad taste of 2010, only their second losing season in the last 11 years, during which the McCourt Divorce dominated the headlines.  And the Rockies, who always play with a chip on their shoulders, feel as though they have the makings of a dynasty, having locked up Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez through at least 2014.  

Whatever I choose, I feel I've got a strong chance of being wrong.

Colorado Rockies 93 W

Los Angeles Dodgers 90 W

San Francisco Giants 87 W

Arizona D-Backs 76 W

San Diego Padres 63 W

MVP Candidate: Justin Upton, D-Backs

Cy Young Candidate: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt, Giants

Comeback of the Year: Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Breakout Candidates: Ian Kennedy, D-Backs; Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, Rockies; Brandon Allen, D-Backs

GM Hot Seat: Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers

Clearly, Colletti's job is safe, so long as McCourt Divorcegate continues, which will likely be deep into the 2011 season, if not beyond.  But, at some point down the line, either Frank, Jamie, or a new owner is going to be looking to put this extremely unfortunate chapter in the Dodgers history in the rearview mirror and, at that point, everybody in the current administration will be put under the microscope.

Sure, Colletti's got a few things to hang his hat on.  The Dodgers have been to the playoffs three times in his five years as GM, and advanced all the way to the NLCS on two of those occasions.  He masterminded the acquisition of Manny Ramirez, which was wildly successful...until it wasn't, but he hardly could've foreseen Manny's suspension and rapid decline.  He brought in Joe Torre, who was the most popular Dodger manager since Tommy Lasorda.  And, he's proved himself an aggressive wheeler and dealer, trading for helpful players like Casey Blake, Ron Belliard, Jim Thome, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, etc. at times when they were needed to fill key roles and he never gave up a whole lot in return.

Of course, underlying the solid track record of success on the field is the open secret among the Dodger faithful; most of the talent responsible for the deep runs in 2008 and 2009 came from the tenures of Coletti's predecessors, Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta.  Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jonathan Broxton were all drafted (or signed) prior to Colletti's arrival in 2006.  It's probably too early to fairly evaluate Colletti's drafting and development record, but his only pick to pan out thusfar is Clayton Kershaw.

As for Colletti's record in free agency, that's very easy to address, and the results aren't good.  He's got four major busts - Manny, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones - who together cost the organization well over $150 Million.  And, while Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda, and Rafael Furcal have all earned their money, they haven't exactly been bargains.

Colletti isn't going to survive close scrutiny by the "new" administration, whomever that is, unless he can demonstrate that 2010 was just a blip on the radar.  He needs to get competitive again, right away.  The flurry of activity in Los Angeles early in the Hot Stove season suggests Colletti's well aware of that fact.  It took him less than a month to shore up his 2011 rotation behind young power arms Billingsley and Kershaw.

First, he resigned midseason acquisition Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33 Million deal that will take the junkballing control specialist into his late 30s.  Lilly's prolonged durability (he's averaged 30 starts a season over the last eight years) and his soft-tossing style suggest he can continue to have success at that late age, much like Jamie Moyer has, so the length of the deal is defensible.  In fact, considering how thin the pitching ranks are this winter, there's a strong likelihood Lilly could've gotten more had he tested the market.

Same goes for Hiroki Kuroda, who Colletti resigned for one year at $12 Million. Kuroda, coming of a season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, probably would've been viewed as the second or third best starter available, behind Cliff Lee, and certainly could've gotten a multiyear deal. However, Kuroda is comfortably in L.A. and seems to want to leave himself the option of returning to Japan in 2012, so he gave Colletti a hometown discount.

Finally, this past week Colletti finished an inexpensive deal for Jon Garland, coming off one of the best years of his career.  Again, it seems likely Garland could've gotten more money or more years had he waited for the pitching market to develop, but he wanted to stay near his home in SoCal, so he took a $5 Million deal with an $8 Million option.  The option kicks in automatically if Garland reaches 190 innings.  Dodgers fans should be warned, he's reached that target every season since 2002, so this should be presumed to be a two-year, $13 Million deal.

All things considered, assuming Billingsley and Kershaw continue to progress towards being tandem Aces, this is a solid corps of starters.  Garland and Lilly can definitely be termed "innings-eaters," as they've proved themselves extremely durable, which should help the Dodger bullpen, which has had a heavy workload the last couple seasons.

Colletti followed his rotational renovations with a somewhat controversial contract offer to veteran utilityman, Juan Uribe, who is coming off a resurgent tenure with the Dodgers archrival.  Uribe helped the Giants by playing solid defense at several infield positions and providing some power as well, but he's definitely a risky investment at three years, $21 Million, which more than doubles what he was making in 2010.  Uribe will probably start as the Dodgers everyday second-baseman, but could move to short or third in 2012, after Blake and Furcal are scheduled to become free agents.  Uribe has a little thunder in his bat.  He's a good bet for around 20 HR.  But his career .300 OBP could make him a bit of a liability, especially in a lineup that is already short on patient hitters.

Most recently, Colletti elected to non-tender longtime catcher, Russell Martin, and middle reliever, George Sherrill, rather than offer them arbitration that could've cost as much as $15 Million.  He replaced Sherrill with Blake Hawksworth, acquired in a trade with the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot.  And, rumor has it, will soon replace Martin with Rod Barajas, probably for something like $2 Million in 2011.  While Martin certainly has the talent to make the Dodgers regret this move, in the short-term it gives Colletti some flexibility.  Even after the signing outlined above and potentially expensive arbitration hearings with Billingsley, Loney, and Kuo, the Dodgers should still be $3-5 Million under their payroll from 2010.

As noted above, I believe Colletti is feeling the pressure to win in 2011, but, considering the Dodgers current investments (including around $20 Million still due to Ramirez, Jones, and Pierre next year) and the McCourt "situation" there is little chance they can get into the bidding on Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or even Paul Konerko.  This leaves Colletti with a difficult decision.  The 2010 roster that finished in fourth place in the NL West was not that different from the one that went to the NLCS in each of the previous seasons.  Unfortunately, much of the young talent regressed substantially last year, especially Kemp, Loney, and Broxton.  One could very easily speculate that they will return to form in 2011, which could be enough to get the Dodgers right back in the thick of it.  However, it also could be that Ethier, Kemp, and Loney are not ready to carry the offense by themselves and need a veteran slugger (like Manny) to take some of the pressure off.

Colletti could probably go get such a player via trade, but it might mean mortgaging the future.  Prince Fielder would certainly fit the bill, but would definitely cost the team Loney and a couple of top prospects and he would almost certainly be unsignable a year from now.  But if the Dodgers go to the playoffs, thereby protecting Colletti's job, wouldn't it be worth it?  To Colletti at least?

On the other hand, Colletti could look to some of the riskier trade candidates like Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham.  Such players could probably be had without decimating the farm system, but there is a much higher likelihood they could be busts, either due to injuries or ineffectiveness.

The fact is, time is running short for this incarnation of the Dodgers.  Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Loney, Billingsley, and Kuo will all be free agents by the end of the 2012 season.  Considering how much success this cast of players had very early in their careers, anything short of a World Series appearance would have to be considered a failure.  If they don't get within striking distance of that goal in 2011, I expect the blame game to begin.  First-year manager Don Mattingly will probably get a pass.  Colletti will not.  It's time for him to prove that he's not just another example of Frank McCourt's incompetence.

Trane Leaving L.A.?

My man-crush on Russell Martin is no secret.  Honestly, what's not to like?  Martin plays the game with a tenacity unrivaled by his contemporaries.  His father is a busking saxophonist (thus, the middle-name Coltrane).  His mother is a French-Canadian lounge singer.  Drafted as an infielder in the 17th round (2002), Martin converted to catcher in 2003 and raced through the Dodgers minor-league system.  A flurry of fortuitous injuries helped him become the Dodgers everyday catcher in 2006, at the age of 23.  He played so well the Dodgers were forced to trade top prospect, Dioner Navarro, who they'd long expected to fill that roll.  Martin rewarded them with back-to-back All-Star campaigns in '07 and '08.  He also won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and, by the age of 25, looked on track to be among the best players at his position for a very long time to come.  Two years ago we could've had a legitimate argument about who's future was brightest, his or Joe Mauer's?

Unfortunately, those days are long gone.  In '09 his production fell off the table, mainly due to a complete absence of power.  In his first three seasons, Martin had averaged 14 HR and a .433 SLG.  Not Mike Piazza, certainly, but enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest.  In '09 his slugging percentage dropped to an abysmal .329 and he hit just seven dingers.  His offensive woes prompted speculation that he was playing through an injury.  Perhaps Grady Little and Joe Torre had leaned too hard on their young backstop.  Martin led major-league catchers in innings from '07 to '09, by a relatively wide margin.  Had his heavy workload and Charlie Hustle disregard for endangering his body caught up to him?

Such rumors gained steam this past year, when Martin failed to rebound offensively and then had his season cut short by a hip injury.  At this point there are those who suggest that Martin may be a candidate to be traded or even non-tendered prior to the arbitration hearing in the spring.  The Dodgers are notably cash-strapped by the McCourt divorce and face potentially expensive negotiations with Chad Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo, and James Loney.  Martin made just over $5 Million in 2010 and would probably be due for a small raise as well.  If the Dodgers aren't confident he can return to some semblance of his previous self, it may be fiscally safer to part ways, even if it means getting nothing in return for a two-time All-Star.

I certainly don't believe that to be the case.  Martin is still young (he'll be 28 in February) and catchers of his caliber, on both sides of the ball, are a truly rare commodity.  Yes, the Dodgers would have to commit $6 or $7 Million to an uncertain proposition in 2011, but they could very well end up with a player worth more than twice that much, who would then have an abundance of value leading into his contract season in 2012.  Sure, if Martin repeats his '09 and '10 performances, he'll have zero market next winter.  But trading him now would still be a dramatic case of "selling low."  Even teams desperate for catching aren't going to give the Dodgers anything more than spare parts for a player coming off of major surgery.  Best-case scenario they might be able to trade disappointments with a team like the Red Sox or White Sox, but they don't have a natural replacement for Martin waiting in the wings and they have too many other holes to fill this offseason to be creating them at positions where there are extreme market limitations.

It is much easier to find a competent left-fielder or third baseman than a competent catcher.  And Martin is, at worst, competent.  His WARs in '09 and '10 were consistent, 2.2 and 2.1 respectively, which is actually middle of the pack for everyday catchers (16 of 23 in '10, 11 of 23 in '09).  His defensive contributions, as well as his decent OBP, make him a virtual lock to outperform free agents like A. J. Pierzynski, Bengie Molina, and Rob Barajas, who would be the Dodgers other alternatives.  Martin remains a popular player among the Dodger faithful, at a time when support for the franchise is being tested.  He also possesses many of the qualities which new manager, Don Mattingly, also represented when he was a player, and their relationship is reportedly a strong one.

I certainly can see the cause for skepticism, but I think it's too early to throw in the towel on Russell Martin.  I hope to see him back in blue in 2011.  

UPDATE:  Apparently Ned Colletti didn't see it this way.  The Dodger did not offer Martin a contract for the 2011 season and he is now free to negotiate with other teams.  Colletti stated that L.A. "is pretty far down the road" in negotiations with a replacement.  The potential upgrade over Martin in the remaining free agent pool is Miguel Olivo.

I expect most GMs will view Martin neck and neck with Olivo.  With several teams still unsettled at catcher, he should generate plenty of interest.  Those who missed out on Victor Martinez will no doubt see some consolation in a younger, defensively superior backstop who has significant offensive upside.  Thus, Boston is a natural suitor, as are the Mariners, Mets, Astros, Padres, and even the Yankees, if they choose to delay the arrival of Jesus Montero.

Where have all the sluggers gone? (Hot Stove Preview)

I'm going to assume that early reports that Hiroki Kuroda has signed a one-year, $12 Million contract to stay with the Dodgers are true.  If so, I think it's safe to say he gave them a home-town discount.  Kuroda was arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the market this winter.  With the exception of missing some time in 2009, Koruda has been extremely steady in the Dodger rotation over the last three seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.  FanGraphs estimated his worth this past season at around $17 Million.  Even though he is 35, he probably could've sought at least two or three years at $8-$10 Million per, considering his recent performance and the relative sparsity of free agent pitchers this offseason.  Consider, as a comparable, that Randy Wolf got three years, $30 Million last season from Milwaukee.  

Wrapping up Koruda for less money than he made the last two seasons represents a minor coup for Ned Colletti, who will likely be cash-strapped again this winter, as the McCourt divorce doesn't seem anywhere near resolution.  The Dodgers are coming off a very disappointing season, but at least they have some stability in the rotation with Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw.  Colletti can concentrate solely on finding a middle-of-the-order presence to pair with Andre Ethier.  Considering his financial limitations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he looks long and hard at potential trade targets like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Dan Uggla.  Los Angeles possesses a notoriously deep farm system, though Colletti is unlikely to mortgage his top talents unless he believes it will bring the kind of bat (like Fielder) who makes the Dodgers immediate favorites in the NL West.

Here's my first look at some of the other names you're likely to hear a lot in the next month...

Premium Free Agents:

1. Cliff Lee (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers

In the last fifteen months, Cliff Lee has sure made up for all those years he spent being underrated in Cleveland.  Some went so far as to call him the best postseason pitcher in history after two straight impressive Octobers with the Phillies and Rangers.  Now he's primed to chase his friend and former teammate's mark for the largest average annual value in a multiyear contract for a starting pitcher.  Since he's already in his thirties, teams may be reluctant to give Lee more than five years, but they may very well offer close to $25 Million per season.  Also, although Lee is a talent any team would be interested in, several of the deepest pocketbooks this winter - Boston, Seattle, Detroit, etc. - aren't likely to chase pitching, which means it could come down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: New York Yankees (6 Yrs./$140 Million)

2. Carl Crawford (Left Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox 

Crawford is in the pleasant position of being clearly the best hitter among a relatively thin class in the offseason following a severe league-wide offensive backslide.  Crawford is the perfect player for team preparing to compete in a "pitcher's era."  Not only is he a .300 hitter with decent power, but he is also an excellent baserunner and basestealer who is probably the best defender in the sport at his position.  He's not yet thirty, but Crawford has already played nine full seasons, and only once did he fail to top 140 games.  And, as if that weren't enough, he's reputed for his intangibles as well: a clubhouse leader in Tampa with a tireless work ethic and the charisma to illicit the same from his teammates.  The bidding will be steep.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Boston Red Sox (7 Yrs./$130 Million)

3. Jayson Werth (Right Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals

Crawford may be "The Perfect Storm," but Werth is hardly short on tools.  He's got power, speed, discipline, range, and an excellent throwing arm.  He's also coming off easily the best year of his career and will be 32 in May of next year.  There is reason to be cautious.  We may have just witnessed his peak.  That isn't to say that he won't be fairly productive for several more years, but the team that chooses to give him a nine-figure contract could soon find themselves with an Soriano-sized albatross.  And who, besides the Cubs, has a penchant for such signings?

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (6 Yrs./$100 Million)

4. Adrian Beltre (Third Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians

Beltre has his best season since 2004 and was a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP, which made Theo Epstein look like a bit a genius for signing him to a one-year, $9 Million deal.  However, it may have served to make him even more of an enigma.  Was his relatively modest production during his five years in Seattle really just a product of the ballpark?  Is it possible he's one of those players who only steps it up during contract years?  Was he inspired by playing for a contender (just as he did in '04)?  There's no easy answer to these questions, which makes it hard to ante up for the 2010 Beltre (worth over $28 Million according to FanGraphs), when you may end up with the 2009 Beltre (worth less than $12 Million).  Somebody will gamble, but not for more than three years.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$45 Million)

5. Adam Dunn (First Base/DH)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals

Never has a player with five consecutive forty-homer season garnered so little interest as Adam Dunn did in 2009.  His pathetic outfield defense and his massive strikeout totals scared all the contenders away, forcing Dunn to accept a two-year, $20 Million deal with the Nationals, even though he was a 29-year-old slugger.  I would say, the hate was too great.  Dunn has since moved to first base and, in all likelihood, is headed to DH at some point in the near future.  All the while he's continued to hit moonshots.  76 of them during his two years in Washington.  Only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had more.  With power numbers falling around in the league, teams might have a little more patience for Dunn's limitations this offseason.  The Big Donkey is not without his charms.  He's basically unbreakable, having never missed more than ten games, since 2003.  And he has a career OBP of .381, which is better than Mark Teixeira ($181 Million) or Ryan Howard ($125 Million), among others.

As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame.  Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation.  However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%).  He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002).  He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware.  And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice).  For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game.  But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member).  That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Texas Rangers (3 Yrs./$36 Million)

6. Victor Martinez (Catcher/First Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets

Matt Klaasen of Beyond the Box Score (among other things) recently released his Catcher Defense Rankings for the 2010 season.  To nobody's great surprise, V-Mart ranked near the bottom (#114 of 120, to be exact).  Being "better than Jorge Posada" may not be enough for Martinez's next employer, but V-Mart's value on the free agent market is much higher when tied to his ability to produce well above the standards for backstops.  To be fair, there are some things that Klassen's rankings cannot account for.  By all reports, V-Mart is a great field general, clubhouse leader, and game-caller.  Those things were certainly enough to keep marquee hitters like Posada, Jason Varitek, and Gary Carter behind the plate long after they stopped excelling at blocking balls and controlling the running game.  That said, I think it's in the best interests of V-Mart's next team to have a contingency plan, so I expect he won't be headed anywhere that has a long-range commitment at 1B and/or DH.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Detroit Tigers (4 Yrs./$50 Million)

7. Aubrey Huff (First Base/Outfield)

Top Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves

I'm a serious Huff fan.  I even went so far as to make his case for NL MVP this year.  But even I have to be a little wary of a 34-year-old with a history of back and knee injuries coming off a career year.  Huff looked fantastic in 2010.  He came to camp in great shape and showed no ill effects following his derailed '09 campaign.  He even played better than average defense at multiple positions and stole seven bases, the second highest total of his career.  Huff, who, to be honest, has been perennially underpaid, will cite these accomplishments and his playoff heroics while lobbying for the biggest contract of his career.  (His 3 Yr./$20 Million contract with Baltimore wasn't exactly a megadeal.)  So long as the buyer doesn't go much beyond that, I can't fault them.  The potential reward well outweighs the risk.

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

8. Paul Konerko (First Base)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals

Um...ditto?

Like Huff, Konerko is coming off the best year in his long, very solid career, the last dozen seasons of which have been spent in Chicago.  He's a year older than Huff and has made about $50 Million more over the course of his career so far.  I see little reason for him to look for a change of scenery and the White Sox don't exactly have a stable of young sluggers waiting in the wings.  Konerko may even give the ChiSox a moderate hometown discount, especially if they're willing to work in some incentives and/or mutual option years.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$30 Million + mutual option)

9. Carl Pavano (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position.  I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call.  All have substantial risk with moderate upside.  Four things are working against all these guys.  1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters.  2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.).  3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations.  4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.

Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

10. Jorge de la Rosa (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners

Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter.  It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him.  His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady.  Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field.  One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.

On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time.  He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09.  He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season.  Maybe he never will.  If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September.  If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011.  In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.

Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...

What happens in April stays in April? (Part Deux)

On Opening Day I introduced you to ten "borderline contenders," teams with moderately realistic postseason ambitions, for whom I believed April baseball really did matter.  Their record wasn't really the issue, so much as unproven aspects of their roster, the performance of which might provide insight into the team's long-term prospects.  These are the teams I've been following most closely this month and though May is still a week away, I'm prepared to offer some modestly confident analysis.

Arizona Diamondbacks: B

They are at the bottom of the their division at 7-9, but the D-Backs remain a very intriguing team.  They are fifth in the NL in scoring, despite the fact that their best player, Justin Upton, has gotten off to a terrible start (640 OPS).  Stephen Drew (902 OPS) and Kelly Johnson (1088 OPS) have been great, and Chris Young has shown improvement.  Arizona has power throughout the lineup, as well as a depth of talent in players like Gerardo Parra, Brandon Allen, Chris Snyder, and Cole Gillespie, which has already proved important following injuries to Miguel Montero and Conor Jacksion.

If the offense continues to rake, they D-Backs will be sneaky good, because Dan Haren isn't going to have a 5.19 ERA for very long and Edwin Jackson is looking sharp, despite modest results (1-1, 3.81 ERA).  He went eight innings against St. Louis on Wednesday and only threw 106 pitches.  His WHIP has remained low (1.23) and he's throwing in the high 90s, which makes for a pretty potent combination.  The progress of Brandon Webb and the development of Ian Kennedy weight heavily on this team.  If the rotation gets just a little deeper, the D-Backs could make the Dodgers and Rockies very uncomfortable.

What happens in April, stays in April? (Opening Day Primer)

Every year, around the middle of May, when the Yankees are sitting around or even well under .500 a few members of the New York media freak out.  They call for benchings, trades, and firings and for the obvious necessity of moving Joba Chamberlain to or from the bullpen.  Inevitably, however, Yankees management ignore the panicked Chicken Littles and by the All-Star Break they are right where the need to be, neck-and-neck with the Red Sox.

The Yankees, the Phillies, and the Rockies are all notoriously slow starters, perhaps because they deal with some cold weather in the spring, or maybe because they employ some key players - Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, etc. - who are known for having a rough time of it in April.  But these teams will not judge their seasons based on what happens in the first eight weeks.  Come August, I have no doubt they will all be in the midst of the pennant race.

New York (AL), Boston, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Minnesota, and Los Angeles (AL), all of whom, coincidently, made the playoffs last season, can afford early inconsistencies with the knowledge that, barring catastrophic bad luck, they have all the pieces in place to be competitive over the long haul.   Many of the other  dozen or so franchises with postseason aspirations, however, will sink or swim based on what they can prove in April and May, not only in terms of wins and losses, but in terms of players stepping up to fill crucial roles.

So, while the casual fan finds April baseball games less than enthralling because they seem inconsequential in comparison with the high stakes of the NBA and NHL playoffs, I'll be closely watching these teams in the early weeks to distinguish the difference between contender and pretender...

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Rockies Hang Their First NL West Flag

The Rockies have an NL Pennant (from 2007) and have been to the postseason three time ('95, '07, '09), but they are the embodiment of the Wild Card era, having come into existence only two year prior to its invention, and utilizing it for every one of their playoff bids.  This is the year that Colorado finally surges to the front of the NL West.

I've been putting off making my western division predictions for both leagues, as I there are a number of reasonable contenders in each of west coast division.  In fact, while participating in the Inside Pulse Sports "30 Teams in 30 Days" roundtables, I think I ended up predicting that four teams in the NL West would finish in third place in order to prevent myself from having to make a strong case for any one of them.

Since those roundtables, there have been a few significant developments.  First, Russell Martin went down with a groin pull.  It isn't expected to cost 'Trane more than a couple weeks of regular season play, but knowing Martin's intensity, you have to wonder whether he will be patient with the rehabilitation process.  Groin injuries can dog a player for much longer than they should if not allowed to fully heal.  A bounceback season from Martin is absolutely key for the Dodgers if they hope to make Joe Torre three-for-three in NL West title attempts.

Also, after early progress, Brandon Webb's rehabilitation has stalled.  It now appears certain that he will begin the season on the DL, with no clear timetable for this return.  With Webb and Dan Haren as co-Aces, followed by Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, the D-Backs had a formidable rotation.  It looks much, much different with two gaping holes at the backend.

Most recently, the Rockies closer, Huston Street, has been diagnosed with a shoulder injury, which will almost certainly cost him a couple months, if not the whole season.  Franklin Morales is the early favorite to take over the closer role, but the Rockies also have two other pitchers with considerable closing experience, Rafael Betancourt and Manny Corpas.  There are also reports that the Rockies have been considering re-signing Joe Beimel or trading for Juan Cruz, although neither is likely to enter the competition for saves.

Giants camp hasn't been completely free of setbacks either.  Freddy Sanchez is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day and Mark DeRosa remains somewhat questionable.  Madison Bumgarner, the early favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation, showed a significant decline in velocity in his first couple outings, provoking worry.

All of this suggests, what probably should be assumed from the start, that with four very competitive teams, the NL West will be determined largely by health and depth.

Offseason Prospectus #14: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The conventional wisdom this offseason has been that L.A. has not and will not be a major player in the free agent market because of the messy divorce proceedings between owner, Frank McCourt, and his wife and former Dodger CED, Jamie McCourt. I don't care to speculate too much regarding this subject, except to say, it is probably in the best interests of the franchise if Jamie is awarded the team when all is said and done. She is clearly more familiar with the daily operations of the franchise and perhaps more dedicated to the teams success (as she has made it her sole priority since 2004). Since the McCourts took over, the Dodgers have had only one losing season and, under the leadership of Paul DePodesta (GM '04-'05) and Ned Colletti (GM '06-Present), as well as Jim Tracy (Manager '04-'05), Grady Little ('06-'07), and Joe Torre ('08-Present) they have made four playoff appearances and assembled perhaps the best collection of homegrown stars in all of baseball.

Ponder this list for a few moments:

RHSP Chad Billingsley (25) Drafted in 2003 (1st Round)

RF Andre Ethier (28) Drafted in 2003 (2nd Round)

OF Xavier Paul (25) Drafted in 2003 (4th Round)

CF Matt Kemp (25) Drafted in 2003 (6th Round)

SS Chin-Lung Hu (26) Signed in 2003 as Amateur Free Agent

1B James Loney (26) Drafted in 2002 (1st Round)

RHRP Jonathan Broxton (26) Drafted in 2002 (2nd Round)

LHSP James McDonald (25) Drafted in 2002 (11th Round)

C Russell Martin (27) Drafted in 2002 (17th Round)

IF Tony Abreu (25) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ramon Troncoso (27) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ronaldo Belisario (27) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

LHRP Hong-Chih Kuo (28) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

I think it's safe to say the Dodgers would not have gone to the NLCS the last two years without this collection of talent. Nobody on this list is older than 28, and yet there are four All-Stars, two Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers. They make up a significant portion of the everyday lineup (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), provide arguably the Ace of the pitching staff (Billingsley), and almost the entirety of the bullpen, which was, in '09, the best in baseball.

So, the McCourts and Ned Colletti deserve some commendations right? Well, yes, they did have a significant hand in developing these players, but all of them were acquired prior to the McCourts purchasing the Dodgers, by the man they fired as GM, Dan Evans. Evans, who now heads up West Coast Sports Management, deserves a great deal of the credit for the Dodgers recent success and may be one of the more underrated general managers of the Moneyball era. In addition to the guys on this list, he was also responsible for drafting Edwin Jackson (who Colletti later traded to Tampa Bay for Lance Carter and Danys Baez) and for engineering several trades which gave the Dodgers a great deal on long-term financial flexibility (sending away Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion, Devon White, etc.). Obviously, trading away veterans (or letting them walk, as he did with Chan Ho Park) didn't make Evans particularly popular with the Dodgers fan base, but it is hard to cite a case (except maybe Sheffield's) where he unloaded somebody who proved toe be worth what they were being paid over the next several seasons. And in the process, Evan stocked the farm system to the incredible degree which is paying dividends for his successors.

Then again, Evans also signed Darren Dreifort to five years and $55 Million.

Free Agents:

C Brad Ausmus (40)

2B Ron Belliard (34)

IF Juan Castro (37)

RHSP Jon Garland (30)

2B Orlando Hudson (32)

IF Mark Loretta (38)

RHRP Guillermo Mota (36)

LHRP Will Ohman (32)

RHSP Vicente Padilla (32)

RHSP Jason Schmidt (36)

DH Jim Thome (39)

RHSP Jeff Weaver (33)

LHSP Randy Wolf (33) [Signed w/ Brewers]

Arbitration Eligible:

Chad Billingsley (25) RHSP

Jonathan Broxton (26) RHCL

Andre Ethier (28) RF

Matt Kemp (25) CF

Hong-Chih Kuo (28) LHRP

James Loney (26) 1B

Russell Martin (27) C

Jason Repko (29) OF

George Sherrill (33) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

IF Ivan DeJesus Jr. (23)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (26)

RHRP Josh Lindblom (23)

RHRP Jon Link (26)

RHSP Ethan Martin (21)

C Lucas May (25)

OF Xavier Paul (25)

Although the Dodgers have a great core of players in place, one can see by the length of their free agency list that this isn't the best offseason to be standing pat. However, they may have no other choice. If that's the case, the continued success of the team will be dependent on the advancement of the prospects drafted by DePodesta and Colletti. So far, only Clayton Kershaw and Blake DeWitt have made any impression at the major-league level.

The primary source of anxiety for Dodgers fans is the rotation. Although the pitching staff was among the best in the league for the bulk of 2009, the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw faded down the stretch and especially in the postseason. The most durable and consistent pitcher from the '09 rotation, Randy Wolf, is gone, having signed with Milwaukee, so the Dodgers need a fully healthy Hiroki Kuroda and more consistency from the young guns. At the back end, Joe Torre may be holding open auditions. Scott Elbert, James McDonald, and the knuckleballer, Charlie Haeger, were all starters throughout their minor-league careers, but adapted well to bullpen roles in '09. All are still in their mid-twenties, capable of making big strides. They will probably get long looks as starters during Spring Training. As will Ethan Martin. The 15th pick in the '08 draft hasn't pitched above A ball, but the Georgia alum should move relatively rapidly through the system, both due to maturity and the franchise's desperation.

The starting lineup is set at every position but second base, as both Orlando Hudson and Ron Belliard became free agents. Joe Torre seems comfortable handing a starting job to Blake DeWitt, a converted third baseman, who served the franchise well as a utility man in '08 and '09. If that experiment goes poorly, the Dodgers will turn to middle-infield prospects like Chin-Lung Hu and Ivan DeJesus Jr.

The Dodgers success in '09 depends most upon Billinsley and Kershaw, but they also need bounceback efforts from Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin. Manny's lack of production might be explained by his suspension, as he still managed an admirable 949 OPS for the season, but the Dodgers will no doubt be concerned by the fact that his OPS numbers declined in every month, from 1154 in April to 792 in the postseason. Russell Martin's precipitous decline is utterly without explanation. After being one of the best catchers in baseball from '06 to '08, Martin went into the tank in '09, managing only a 680 OPS, over a hundred points below his previous career low. Perhaps he was hiding an injury. Perhaps it was just a fluke. Whatever the reason, the Dodgers desperately need the All-Star to be back behind the plate in 2010.

Joe Torre has defied all his doubters since coming to L.A., taking the team to the brink of the World Series in each of his first two seasons. 2010 may be his greatest challenge yet.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

SS Rafael Furcal (S)

CF Matt Kemp (R)

LF Manny Ramirez (R)

RF Andre Ethier (L)

1B James Loney (L)

3B Casey Blake (R)

C Russell Martin (R)

2B Blake DeWitt (L)

SP Clayton Kershaw (L)

SP Chad Billingsley (R)

SP Hiroki Kuroda (R)

SP James McDonald (R)

SP Charlie Haeger (R)

CL Jonathan Broxton (R)

SU George Sherrill (L)

SU Ronaldo Belisario (R)

MR Ramon Troncoso (R)

MR Hong-Chih Kuo (L)

LOOGY Scott Elbert (L)

MOP Cory Wade (R)

C A. J. Ellis (R)

IF Jamey Carroll (R)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (R)

OF Xavier Paul (L)

OF Jason Repko (R)

At least 7 teams with regrets...

Toronto's General Manager, J. P. Riccardi, has already come under fire, at home and in the national media, for his Roy Halladay publicity tour. Halladay "rumors" dominated the headlines for most of July, but the Blue Jays failed to find a trading partner in the end. It remains to be seen whether Riccardi will wish he had accepted the reported offer from the Phillies which included either J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor. If Toronto ends up trading Halladay this offseason for a package that doesn't include two players the equal of what Philadelphia had on the table, Riccardi will look like a bit of a schmuck, overplaying his hand just as the Twins did a couple years ago with Johan Santana.

However, regardless of where Halladay is pitching next spring, there will be at least seven general managers spending the winter asking themselves "What if...?" One team will take home a World Series trophy and that lucky GM will tell his fan base, "See, we really didn't need Roy Halladay?" But whether he admits it or not, even he will have images of the Doc's gravity-defying repertoire flitting through his mind's eye right up to the final out of the season. And the seven playoff competitors who fall short...well, they'll be having trade deadline nightmares for years to come, particularly when several of the vaunted prospects who they refused to consider parting with never reach their potential, as is inevitably the case with the majority of top prospects.

I'm going to assume that Riccardi was especially reluctant to turn Doc over to another American League team (particularly the Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees), where he could make a triumphant return to Toronto half-a-dozen times in the coming two seasons, so I'll focus my comments on National League contenders.

If the reigning champions, the Phillies, don't win the World Series again this year or next, they will probably be the team kicking themselves the hardest, because if they had been willing to part with any three of their top four prospects, they probably could've guaranteed themselves a dynasty. However, by adding Cliff Lee, they may have found a way have their dynasty and their "future stars" too. Lee is somewhere between 80% and 90% of the pitcher Halladay is, but he cost not a single of Philadelphia prized prospects. The distressing question for Phillies fans is whether having a rotation full of left-handers (Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Moyer) could haunt them in the playoffs when they come up against righty-heavy lineups like Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Chicago. Joe Blanton is the only right-handed pitcher in the Phillies rotation, although they do have some kid named Pedro rehabbing for an August return.

The Dodgers put away the AL West sometime in May, so they weren't pressed to make a splash at the deadline. But one has to wonder whether this team can succeed in October when their top two starters are 21- and 25-years-old. Both Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are on pace to pitch WAY more innings than they ever have before. Billingsley is already showing some wear and tear, having allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts. The Dodgers do have a veteran in Randy Wolf, who has pitched much better than his record indicates (5-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 99 K, 134 IP) and they have Hiroki Kuroda recently returned from the D.L. Kuroda hasn't been great so far, but he did have a 1.46 ERA in two postseason starts in 2008. Roy Halladay would've looked really good in Dodger Blue, but the fact is, the Dodgers don't have the prospects to make an offer equal to that which Philly put on the table, so they would've had to part with productive pieces of their current major-league roster - probably Kershaw, Billingsley, or Matt Kemp - which may have created as many problems as Halladay solved.

St. Louis may be the most improved team this trade season. The additions of Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo (as well as the resurgence of Ryan Ludwick) filled out the lineup around King Albert and gave Tony LaRussa the depth off the bench which he so covets. The rotation for St. Louis has been very good (3.60 ERA, 2nd to San Francisco in the NL), so the Cardinals certainly addressed their more pressing problem. They also made it readily apparent that they planned to "go for it" this season. They unloaded their top two pitching prospects (Chris Perez and Jess Todd) to get DeRosa and their top hitting prospect to get Holliday, essentially decimating the farm system. Nonetheless, they probably could've cobbled together a package including Colby Rasmus and Daryl Jones which might've been enough the nab Halladay as well. If you're going to "go for it," then sell the whole damn store! The 1-2 combo of Doc and Chris Carpenter would've given them the formula for playoff domination.

Of all the contending teams who were relatively quiet at the deadline, the Cubs are somehow the most perplexing and it probably has more to do with their impending sale than any apathy on Jim Hendry's part. The Cubs have no other reason to be conservative. They are a veteran team trying to redeeem themselves after two straight early exits from the postseason. Much of their core is either declining or on the verge of free agency, and they don't look like they have much future beyond Lou Pinella's contract (which runs through 2010). They probably could've made a run at Halladay by giving up some combination of Jake Fox, Randy Wells, Josh Vitters, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ceda, and Micah Hoffpauir. However, Chicago was one of the few contending teams that didn't even get mentioned in the daily Halladay updates, suggesting that Hendry's hands were truly tied.

He looks good in blue!

It won't go down as the worst trade in their history (there was that fat bitch that built a house in the Bronx), but when you give up a future hall-of-famer who hit .348 last October and has an OPS over 1000 against that Arch-rival AND a pair of major-league ready prospects for a second-tier outfielder who's never played on team that finished above .500...and did I mention you paid for all of it, then you've been had.  Manny's going to sweep the floor with the paltry NL West, while the BoSox scratch for the Wild Card with an injured Papi and a beleaguered bunch of white boys who have no business batting anywhere but fifth.

But let's focus on the positive.  Life is beginning to look real good for the Dodgers.  What's been missing from their lineup for the last two seasons, that intimidating presence, arrived in a big way on Friday night (even though he grounded into a double play in the 9th).  That's not all.  They also got the second consecutive very quality start from the teen phenom, Clayton Kershaw.  The Dodgers already had a lot to be thankful for.  In Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, they have the best trio of 25-and-under hitters outside of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  They've got the best team ERA in the NL and the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball. They've got Joe Torre and his history of late-season surges.  They've got Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones riding the pine, as the most expensive pinch-hitting/defensive-replacement combo in the history of baseball.  They've got Brad Penny, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, and Takashi Saito due back from the disabled list by the end of the month; a re-infusion of talent unlike anything that's going be passing through the waiver wires.  Most importantly, perhaps, they're playing in a division which can be had for 85 wins.

This is a team which, despite its massive market, has flown under the radar all season, thanks largely to their frankly mediocre play.  Still, they are a mere two games out with two games still to go in a series against division-leading Arizona, whose big deadline acquisition was Tony Clark.  Kemp and Loney are both showing signs of equaling the extraordinary post-break production they put up in 2007, when they combined for a .325 average, 19 HR, and 80 RBI.  Joe Torre's habit of resting Russell Martin by playing him at third base has not only kept his bat in the lineup, but should have him fresher for the stretch drive.  All will benefit from having a cleanup hitter who isn't Jeff Kent.  One would assume, Jeff Kent might also benefit from a little less pressure.

Getting to the postseason, of course, is little more than half the battle.  In Manny, they've got themselves a playoff monster.  But, more importantly, they already had a deep rotation.  Even though they don't possess the 1-2 punch of Milwaukee, Arizona, or Chicago, this team could be a force in October

Anxiety in the Outfield

After a prolonged hiatus, I'm returning to the blogosphere to begin my discussion of the 2008 season. In the coming weeks and months, I will likely weigh in on the popular topics of the moment - the Mitchell Report, the Roger Clemens hearings, the Barry Bonds indictment, the Johan Santana trade, etc. - but I'd like to begin our broadcast season by looking at some of the more intriguing on-field situations to watch when spring training begins in just over a week. Today, in particular, I'll be addressing a few outfields which seem inevitably in flux. Obviously, there are implications for those fantasy-oriented members in the audience, but this is also of interest for the more casual baseball fan because, unlike in most offseasons, the dealing is not yet done. Look for teams to unload excess and fill holes using free agency and trades well into the spring training schedule.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

No matter how you look at it, the Angels are dealing from a position of strength. Sure, they dealt one of their most popular players, Orlando "Orange County" Cabrera, to secure Jon Garland from the White Sox, but they have three high-profile yougsters, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis, and Brandon Wood, ready to fill his shoes. They've also got depth in the rotation with Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Nick Adenhart competing for the final slot. And, they've got a bullpen featuring one of baseball's most consistent, dominating closers, K-Rod, and two top set-up men, Scot Shields and Justin Speier. But today, as I was saying, we're focused on the outfield. The Angels surprised everybody when the signed one of this offseason's prime free agents, Torii Hunter, to a long, loaded contract. It wasn't that anybody doubted the Angels willingness to spend money in the free agent market. In recent years they've doled out hundreds of millions to high-profile players like Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon; however, their last major acquisition was Gary Matthews Jr., a moderately speedy, moderately powerful, superb defender, who might accurately be described as "Torii Hunter-lite." What do the Angels plan on doing with two gold-glove caliber centerfielders?

Well, we can safely assumed that $90 Million Dollar Man, Torii Hunter, with his seven consecutive gold gloves will be getting most of the starts in center. We can also safely assume that $50 Million Dollar Man, Gary Matthews Jr., will not be riding the pine. Although Matthews was dogged last season by nagging injuries and accustions that HGH was a major factor in his breakout season in 2006, he quietly put up another solid, though not outstanding, campaign. He hit 18 HR, scored 79 runs and drove in 72, stole 18 bases, and, of course, played highlight reel defense, despite the fact that he hit only .211 in the second-half. If he had kept up his first-half pace and not be dogged by problems with his knee, he numbers would've looked very similar to those he posted in Texas in 2006.

The Angels see know reason to move Matthews since, as I was saying, they are dealing from a position of strength throughout their roster. If injuries befall key players or the abundant youth in the system fail to develop as expected, Matthews could be traded during the season, but I expect him to be a sort of utility outfielder who plays everyday. Most of his starts will come in left, as Garret Anderson becomes the regular DH, but rightfielder Vladimir Guerrero , who's also suffered from knee injuries, will also see some time there (he was a DH for 41 games in '07), as will Hunter, who has spent all his career on the rock-hard surface in Minnesota, the same type of surface that is responsible for the hardships of guys like Vlad, Andre Dawson, and Larry Walker.

What further complicates the outfield situation in Anaheim is the presence of Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera. Willits is another speedy young Angel. He finished fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting last season, after hitting .293 and stealing 27 bases while filling in for Anderson, Matthews, and Guerrero. Willits could be a useful leadoff hitter or fourth outfielder for many teams. His value is raised further by the amount of time left before he reaches free agency. If he isn't getting any playing time, look for him to be dealt for assistance at catcher or in the bullpen. Rivera is even further below the radar, but has more upside offensively than either Willits or Matthews. He is best suited for right field or DH, but he hit 23 HR, drove in 85 RBI, and batted .310 in 2006, before missing all of last season to a broken leg. He is still only 29 and may represent better protection for Vlad than either Anderson or Hunter, considered the leading candidates for the cleanup slot. If he is given the opportunity, beware!

Los Angeles Dodgers

The question for Dodgers fans is this: Which of these lineups would you rather see on the field?

C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Jeff Kent
3B Nomar Garciaparra
SS Rafeal Furcal
LF Juan Pierre
CF Andruw Jones
RF Matt Kemp

or

C Martin
1B Loney
2B Tony Abreu
3B Andy LaRoche
SS Chin-Ling Hu
LF Andre Ethier
CF Delwyn Young
RF Kemp

I'm guessing most Dodger fans will still pick lineup A, and it may be the better choice for '08. I, however, would not want to bet on that. And, I can say with certainty that, come 2010, it is going to be lineup B (or something closely resembling it) taking the field at Chavez Ravine nightly. Each of the members of lineup B are in their early-to-mid twenties, have two years or less experience, and represent, along with pitchers like Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, and Clayton Kershaw, quite possibly the best conglomeration of young talent in the major leagues. Unfortunately, right now more than half of them don't have a chance of starting or even making the major league roster and there is noth to be gained from another year at AAA for guys like Ethier, Young, LaRoche, and Hu. Garciaparra, Kent, and Pierre will be on short leashes if they
again have slow starts or nagging injuries.

In the outfield, specifically, we can assumed that Matt Kemp's position is etched in stone. He arrived on the scene in a big way in 2006, when, as a 21-year-old rookie he hit 7 HRs and drove in 14 over an eleven game stretch. Then the league figured out that he was a free swinger and he was demoted for more seasoning. Last June he came to stay, batting .338 with 10 HR, 10 SB, and 39 RBI in less than 300 ABs. He is likely to benefit from the added presence of Andruw Jones protecting him in the lineup and roaming centerfield, as a mentor, but is also likely to outperform him offensively. Although he will go behind Jones and Juan Pierre in most fantasy drafts, his combination of batting average, speed, and power makes him more valuable than either of them and a great mid-round steal.

Jones is looking to rebound from a much-publicized year-long slump in 2007, which may have cost him a considerable amount of money on the free agent market, much to the chagrin of agent Scott Boras. Although there may be some truth to the pervasive rumors of declining speed, due largely to weight issues, it is hard to believe that Jones' offensive numbers are going to take a dramatic and permanent downward turn at the age of 30. He stopped stealing bases long ago, and it wasn't his foot-speed that allowed him to average 35+ homers a season from 2000-2006. The last time Jones had a slightly "down" year, in 2004 (29 HR, 91 RBI), he rebounded with the two best seasons of career (41/51 HR, 128/129 RBI). If he comes to spring training looking fit, don't necessarily expect an MVP-caliber season, but 35 HR and 110 RBI isn't at all unreasonable hitting in a lineup stacked with high-average, high-OBP guys like Martin, Loney, Kemp, Furcal, and Kent.

Juan Pierre is coming off three consecutive "down" years. After posting OBPs of .361 and .374 in his first two seasons with the Marlins ('03 and '04), he hasn't gotten above .331 in three seasons with Florida, Chicago (NL), and Los Angeles. As a pure lead-off hitter with no power, no arm, and only moderate range in the outfield due to his often strange jumps, Pierre's value to tied exclusively to his ability to get on base and steal bases. The second half of the equation is still no problem (he's averaged 60 steals a year for the past three seasons), but he can't nab second if he doesn't get to first and recently he hasn't gotten to first as often as 25-year-old Andre Ethier (.357 OBP in two seasons), who doesn't steal bases, but does have decent power and plate discipline. More dangerous perhaps is Delwyn Young, also 25. Young isn't a base-stealer either, but he hit .382 in a limited stint last September and he raked AAA to the tune of a .337 average, 955 OPS, 17 HR, 54 2B, and 97 RBI in 121 games.

Five outfielders this talented is probably at least one too many. If the Dodgers are willing to swallow some of his remaining salary, Pierre makes the most sense to deal, but the youngsters might also be valuable commodities in a trade to a rebuilding franchise like Oakland (Joe Blanton).

Washington Nationals

Last year, the Nationals had one of the weakest outfields in baseball and, as a result, one of the weakest offenses in baseball. Center field was particularly a problem. The combination of Nook Logan and Ryan Langerhans combined for six homers, 63 runs, and 43 RBI. Neither had an OPS above 700. Meanwhile, Ryan Church (28) and Austin Kearns (27), both high-potential hitters coming into the prime of their careers, turned in mediocre performances, not the "break-up" campaigns the Nationals were expecting. It was clear, even before the season ended, that this was the primary concern for GM Jim Bowden going into 2008. He traded for Wily Mo Pena in mid-August and Pena rewarded him with 8 HR and an 856 OPS in 37 games. Then, early in the offseason, he dealt Church and veteran catcher Brian Schneider to the Mets for top prospect Lastings Milledge and, soon thereafter, acquired Elijah Dukes from Tampa Bay.

All three come with abundant baggage. Pena has been a full-time major-leaguer for four seasons, even though he's only 26. But, unlike most players of his age with his talent, he has never been given the opportunity to play everyday, largely due to his inconsistency against right-handed pitching. He is one of those players who has been labeled as "difficult" in the clubhouse, but without much justification as to why.

In the cases of Milledge and Dukes, there is plenty of justification for the label. Milledge made a number of inappropriate public statements and gestures during his short tenure with the Mets which led to them letting him go, despite the fact that many look at the trade as highway robbery based on the pure talent of the players. Milledge is a prototypical tools player. There isn't anything amazing in his minor-league (or major-league) stats, largely because there aren't that many of them. He is only 22 and has spent much of the past two seasons on the Mets bench. Given a chance to play center every day, he is likely good for a .290 average, 10-15 HR, 80+ runs, and 25+ SB. All of those numbers, especially the power, as likely to escalate as he moves into his mid-twenties. He could eventually be something between Eric Byrnes and Carlos Beltran.

Dukes' ceiling is probably even higher, but the "difficulties" are greater, too. He was sent home last season after multiple "domestic disturbances," despite the fact that he hit 10 HR with the big club in only 200 plate appearances. Dukes has spectacular power and, more importantly, tremendous plate discipline, walking almost as often as he strikes out, a rare feat for a power-hitter. He also plays the outfield well and has base-stealing speed. If he can harness his temper, he will eventually supplant somebody in the Nationals outfield, and is the only player in this group with the chance to become a bonafide superstar. Although there has been even more publicity given to Dukes' extracurricular struggles, it would do us well to remember that Gary Sheffield was not exactly well-behaved (at least, according to the media) when he arrived in the majors, but, despite the fact that he remains out-spoken and controversial, he has become among the most respected clubhouse personalities in the league.

The comparison of young Sheffield with young Dukes seems warranted both on the field as well. Milwaukee brought Sheffield to the big club at the age of 19, after he absolutely torched minor-league pitching in 1987 and 1988 (222 RBI between AA and AAA, in only 263 games! When he was in his teens!). However, he tenure in Milwaukee was marred by injuries, "behavioral problems," and slumps. Sheffield didn't become the intimidating monster that we've come to know and love until he was moved to San Diego in 1992, the first season he played in more than 125 games. Nonetheless, despite all his struggles, from '88 to '91, Sheffield drew 97 walks while fanning only 96 times. Sheffield break-out 1992 season, in which he batted .330, hit 33 HR, and drove in 100 RBI, came at the age of 23. Elijah Dukes turned 23 on June 26, 2007, but the last time he suited up for a major league game was June 19.

The Other 27

In brief, here are a few other outfield battles to watch this spring:

Chicago Cubs: Soriano and Fukudome are solidified in the corner slots, but the Cubs need a center-fielder (what's new?). Felix Pie and Sam Fuld are the front-runners. The Cubs also still have Matt Murton, a seemingly forgotten prospect, who remains glued to the bench despite signs of being a productive regular. Look for him to be used as trade bait.

Chicago White Sox: Nick Swisher and Jermaine Dye are the stalwarts, while Jerry Owens, Carlos Quentin, Josh Fields, and Alexei Ramirez must compete for at-bats, along with third-baseman Joe Crede, who will probably get traded to free up a place for Fields in the infield. Quentin is the best offensive option of the group, but that leaves Swisher in center, which is not the ideal position for him.

Oakland Athletics: The rebuilding season in Oakland promises to be a revolving door at many position, including the outfield, where nobody is a safe bet to start consistently. The crop of probable candidates include Jack Cust (who will also DH), Carlos Gonzalez, Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, Emil Brown, and Jeff Fiorentino. Assuming some of these options don't pan out, don't be surprised if Billy Beane is willing to try guys like Dan Johnson, a first baseman by trade, and top catching prospect, Landon Powell, in left.

Seattle Mariners: Ichiro and Raul Ibanez will lock down left and center, and Adam Jones is no longer in the picture, so right is up for grabs. Brad Wilkerson and Wladimir Balentin will both see time there, with Balentin being the better choice in terms of long-term potential. However, don't forget that not so long ago Wilkerson was a disciplined hitter with good power. He just finished two dreadful seasons in Texas. Perhaps a new batting coach can get him back on track.

Texas Rangers: Speaking of Texas, where hitting seems to be a feast or famine enterprise (see Wilkerson, Texeira, Blalock, Matthews Jr., etc.), they have locked down Josh Hamilton in center and, on can assume, Milton Bradley will play right or DH when he is healthy. The remaining at-bats (quite plentiful, if precedent prevails) will be shared by Marlon Byrd, Frank Catalanatto, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, and Jason Botts. All of who have enough power (save Murphy, probably) to feast at Arlington.

Hu's on first? Second? Third?

The Dodger's second-half collapse does include a few sources of optimism. Most obviously one can look to the performances of outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and first baseman James Loney, all of whom should probably have been given starting assignments earlier in the season.

Loney's 32 RBIs in September is best in all of baseball, and his overall numbers (.337 - 15 - 67) would have undoubtedly garnered him some MVP consideration if he weren't barely ineligible (102 AB in 2006). The 6' 3" Loney is an athletic first baseman who has always hit for average, increasingly for power, works the count, and plays excellent defense. He is very reminiscent of Derrek Lee, and could be even better than D-Lee, who developed rather slowly at the big league level, seeing as Loney is only 23.

Kemp (.333 - 10 - 40) matured dramatically over the course of the last season. He will probably never be a particularly patient hitter, but his plate coverage means he doesn't have to be, and he is no longer chasing everything from his nose to his toes, as he did during his up-and-down tenure with the Dodger in 2006. Kemp is also just 23-years-old, so it is not unfair to expect another dramatic improvement given a full season at the major league level.

Ethier spent the entirety of the 2007 season with the Dodgers, unlike Kemp and Loney, but for some reason Grady Little has been reluctant to make Andre an everyday player. His modest numbers (.288 - 13 - 64) look better when considering that he got only 441 ABs, posted a strong .352 OBP, and had an identical average against righties and lefties. Next year he will have the first shot as the starting left-fielder, with Gonzo undoubtedly moving on, but he will still have to prove himself, as Delwyn Young has looked pretty good during his August/September cup-'0-coffee.

The Dodgers primary problem has been the rotation. No Jason Schmidt. No Randy Wolf. No Hong-Chih Kuo. The staff ERA since the All-Star Break is 4.61. Surprisingly, of their emergency acquisitions, it has been David Wells who has been stronger (4-1) than Esteban Loaiza (1-4). Nonetheless, a healthy Loaiza could comprise the back-end of an excellent rotation in 2008. Hopefully Schmidt and Kuo will return. Brad Penny has turned himself into a perennial Cy Young candidate. Derek Lowe is the prototype workhorse, registering 32 starts and at least 12 wins for six consecutive years. And there will be high expectations for the young Chad Billingsley who has gone 8-5 with a 2.71 ERA since the beginning of July.

The biggest question this offseason could be whether or not the Dodgers should pick up Jeff Kent's $9,000,000 option. Kent is still a productive player when he's in the lineup. In 2007 he has 20 HR, 78 R, and 79 RBI, with a .302 AVG and 875 OPS. Only Chase Utley, Brandon Phillips, and Robinson Cano are obviously better offensive option at second base, while Kent falls squarely in a class with Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson, and Dan Uggla. If he want to, Kent will play somewhere in 2008. Will it be Los Angeles?

They don't have any obvious replacements. However, they do have the 2007 Futures Game MVP, Chin-Lung Hu, an excellent defensive shortstop, who hit .364 in 127 minor league games this season between AA and AAA. Will he have to wait for Rafael Furcal's contract to expire at the end of next year? Or will he perhaps share time with Wilson Valdez at 2B and Andy LaRoche at 3B in 2008?

One thing is certain, the Dodgers need a power boost.

Bold Predictions - September 1

Seven out eight of my preseason playoff selections are very much alive, with only my darkhorse Giants long gone from contention. However, my World Series picks, the Tigers and Dodgers, have shown signs of fading recently. Both are still well within the range, but must have excellent final months. The Tigers made a move on the Yankees over the weekend, taking 3 out of 4 from the Yankees, including a 16-0 drubbing on Monday, but the undid much of their progress by losing the first two games against Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Indians have run off a five game winning streak, going 4.5 games up, the biggest separation they've enjoyed since June 1. The Tribe has invigorated itself with the additions of Kenny Lofton, Aaron Laffey, and Asdrubal Cabrera in recent weeks. The Tigers countered with the returns of Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya, and Andrew Miller, but unfortunately lost Gary Sheffield and Kenny Rogers simultaneously. At the beginning of the year, I argued Detroit's eventual championship on the grounds of their depth and ability to compensate for injury. That theory is being tested. Ryan Raburn (900 OPS in 96 AB), Marcus Thames (15 HR, 779 OPS in 219 AB), Bobby Seay (2.49 ERA, 9 Holds in 49 G), and Zach Miner (3.65 ERA, 8 Holds in 25 G) have stepped up as Zumaya, Rodney, Miller, Rogers, and Sheffield have all spent time on the DL. Jim Leyland is hoping the Cameron Maybin experiment will also reap fruit. They could use some production from left field while Sheffield is on the DL, Thames is at DH, and Craig Monroe is playing for Chicago.

The good news for the Tigers is that the schedule works to their advantage. Detroit has only six games left with teams who are in contention, 3 with Seattle and 3 with Cleveland. That means throughout September they will face many teams who are testing young players and thinking about 2008. Not that teams like the White Sox (6), Twins (6), and Royals (4) wouldn't love to play spoilers. Detroit has a ten game homestand in the middle of the month, during which they need to improve upon their 34-31 home record in 2007.

The other AL contenders, on the other hand, are not quite so lucky. The Yankees have four games left against rival Boston and three against Seattle. Cleveland has 12 games left against Detroit (3), Seattle (5), and Los Angeles (4). The Mariners have 15 meetings with the Indians (5), Detroit (3), Los Angeles (4), and New York (3).

Largely because of the scheduling advantage, I think Detroit can catch the current Wild-Card leaders, even if that can't catch the Indians. Cleveland, despite their schedule seems to be in pretty good shape because, along with their potent lineup, which the Mariners and Yankees can match, they have great depth in starting pitching, with Cliff Lee, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller among those awaiting September call-ups, while Seattle and New York (with the recent promotion of Ian Kennedy) have already raided the farm. Although New York certainly scares me and Seattle has impressed me, I'm going to stick with the AL pennant contenders I foresaw in March, except that Detroit is now my Wild Card prediction. It'll look like this:

Detroit (WC) v. Boston
Los Angeles v. Cleveland

In the National League, the playoff picture is a lot more complex. Ten teams are still in legitimate competition, with none of the divisions decided with any certainty. With all the races this close, very few games will be meaningless, for either team involved, which is what Bud had in mind when he started talking about "parity" a few years back.

Here's a breakdown of the schedule strengths:

Atlanta
16/28 @ Home
16/28 v. Contenders

New York
16/30
11/30

Philadelphia
13/30
17/30

Chicago
15/31
10/31

Milwaukee
16/30
12/30

St. Louis
19/33
15/33

Arizona
15/28
19/28

Colorado
16/30
23/30

Los Angeles
12/29
23/29

San Diego
16/30
20/30

How do you make any sense of these numbers? Well, only a few things stand out. Most teams have about half home and half road games left, with a few exceptions. The Phillies and Dodgers are going to be spending much of September in hotel rooms. Los Angeles has been pretty consistent; that is, not too great at home or on the road. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is only 32-33 away from their personalized launching pad. They've come on strong of late, making up 4 games in...well...4 games. They need to ride that momentum on the road.

Los Angeles is also the team with the most games left against contending teams. That, along with their busy travel schedule would suggest that they are a long shot, with 3.5 games to make up in both the NL West and the Wild Card race. The optimistic view is that they will have ample opportunities to make up ground and they are getting hot at the right time, winning 5 in a row and 11 of their last 15.

Arizona is a young team, likely playing over their heads. They've been outscored by almost forty runs over the course of the season. The Phillies are scary, but only if Cole Hamels comes back as their bonafide Ace. Jamie Moyer, Kyle Lohse, and Kyle Kendrick are believable at the back end of the rotation on a team that scores a lot of runs, but none of them are going to intimidate anybody. If Hamels makes five starts in September, the Phillies take the Wild Card. If not, it's gotta be the Dodgers.

St. Louis will have ample opportunities to catch their NL Central rivals, with three games left against Milwaukee, and five!, including four in three days at home, left versus the division-leading Cubs. But bad news continues to plague the reigning champs, as they lost two middle of the order hitters, Juan Encarnacion and Scott Rolen, to season-ending injuries this week. Encarnacion may be replaceable if Ankiel continues to play well, but the Redbirds are going to be stuck with some combination of Brendan Ryan, Russell Branyan, and anonymous September call-ups from here on out (as if Brendan Ryan weren't anonymous enough).

Here's how I see things heading into the postseason,

Chicago v. San Diego
Los Angeles v. New York