What's left to prove...

With Stephen Strasburg optioned to AA, Jason Heyward penciled into the Braves Opening Day lineup, and Phil Hughes confirmed as the Yankees fifth starter, it may feel like March is coming to an anticlimactic end.  Here are the best remaining storylines heading into the final week of Spring Training.

S-Rod

Every year there is an off-the-radar player who dominates the Grapefruit League and unexpectedly earns a spot on the major-league roster (remember Chris Shelton).  Usually, that player is an afterthought by the middle of May, but that may not be the case with Sean Rodriguez.  Rodriguez is hitting .413 and leading the league with six homers, while Pat Burrell (.171) and Gabe Kapler (.138) have been less than impressive.  Matt Joyce's elbow injury may limit him to DH duties or even force him to the DL to begin the season, which may clear space for S-Rod in right field or at second base (with Ben Zobrist moving to right).

Rodriguez is a serious prospect, the key piece in the Scott Kazmir trade with the Angels last August.  S-Rod has shown tremendous power throughout his minor-league career and in recent seasons has shown a steadily improving sense of the strike zone.  He's going to swing and miss plenty, but at least he'll whiff primarily on pitches in the zone and could be make a run at 30 HR even as a rookie if he's given everyday at-bats.  The Rays are "all-in" with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena headed to free agency at the end of 2010, so I think they'll give S-Rod a chance to prove his March numbers are no fluke.  If he produces during the time it takes Matt Joyce's elbow to heal, it could spell the end of the Pat the Bat experiment in Tampa Bay.

The Jeff Suppan Mercy Killing

The Brewers are facing an unfamiliar problem this spring: a dearth of starting pitching.  With Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, and Manny Parra pretty much guaranteed spots in the rotation, only one remains for either Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, or Chris Narveson.

Both Bush and Narveson have pitched extremely well this spring, while Suppan has not.  The fact that Bush, Narveson, and Parra are all out of minor-league options and would undoubtedly be claimed off waivers, makes it almost impossible for the traditionally pitching poor Brewers to leave any one of them off the active roster.

Suppan has gotten progressively worse since coming to Milwaukee and seems now like a serious candidate for release, even though that would mean the Brewers would have to eat the remaining $14 Million on his contract.  Better that, however, than lose a useful and relatively young pitcher like Narveson or Bush and get nothing in return.

No doubt Doug Melvin is beating the bushes trying to find a trading partner.  That may not be far-fetched considering how many teams have starting pitching shortages, but they will be able to drive a hard bargain with the knowledge that Milwaukee's roster math just doesn't work at this juncture.  It wouldn't surprise me terribly if the Brewers began the season with thirteen pitchers, or if Suppan came down with a convenient case of tendinitis that forced him to the 15-day DL.

Roll the Dice on Aroldis?

I've been saying it all spring and I still believe, assuming his back spasms aren't a recurring problem, Aroldis Chapman will be the Reds best option for the final spot in the rotation.  I don't think he's the second-coming of Dwight Gooden.  There will be some rough outings.  But if the Reds are serious about contending during the final year of Dusty Baker's contract (and potentially the final year in Cincinnati for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Ramon Hernandez), Chapman has the best chance of helping them to that goal straight out of the gate.

Peter Gammons argues eloquently for giving Chapman a Strasburg-style six-week minor-league training program and I understand his logic, but I think it's safe to say that if the Nationals thought they had a legitimate shot at the postseason, they probably would've made Strasburg their Opening Day starter.  Many in the Braves organization regret starting Tommy Hanson at AAA in '09, considering the Braves ended missing the playoffs by only six games and the men who kept Hanson's seat warm, primarily Jo-Jo Reyes and Kris Medlen, combined for only one win in April and May.  There is quite a bit riding on this season, for Baker, for the Reds veterans, and for the front office. Making their first postseason appearance since 1995 would more than make up for the money they might lose if Chapman gets one more year of arbitration.

The Comeback Train?

The Tigers are going to pay $35 Million this season to Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson, but at this juncture it looks like there's only room or two of them in the rotation.  Bonderman and Willis are clear favorites, both because they have more raw talent and because Robertson has a better chance of adapting to a relief role.  I think it's safe to say that everybody's rooting for the affable, spirited D-Train, but while his increasing velocity and 1.20 ERA in fifteen spring innings are damn good signs, his eight walks are a red flag, especially considering that control problems are what derailed him in '08 and '09.

The Second Coming of R. Ortiz

Coming into Spring Training the Dodgers probably expected that the competition for fifth starter would come down to youngsters like James McDonald and Charlie Haeger.  That has not been the case.  There is still a rookie in the running, 24-year-old Carlos Monasterios, but frontrunners are a pair of guys named Ortiz, both of whom came into camp facing very long odds.

Ramon Ortiz, the former Angels workhorse who will turn 37 in May, hasn't pitched in a major-league game since 2007, but he has struck out nineteen batters in fourteen innings, posting a 1.29 ERA.

Russ Ortiz, the former Giants Ace, is a year younger, and got thirteen starts for the Astros in 2009, but he hasn't had even a mediocre season since 2004.  Over the last five years he is 10-28 with a 6.56 ERA. However, this spring he's been dominant, allowing on two earned runs in thirteen innings (2.08 ERA).

Many were surprised yesterday when Joe Torre announced that Vicente Padilla would be his Opening Day starter.  They're going to be even more surprised when he announces who gets the call on April 11th.

Offseason Prospectus #4: The Milwaukee Brewers

Not too long ago I posted about the "I-94 swap" of J. J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. At the time I presumed that Gomez would have another year prior to arbitration, but as it turned out, he squeaked into that magical "super two" class by the hair on his chinny-chin-chin. Of the 210 players up for arbitration this winter, only Mike Fontenot and Dustin Nippert have less service time than Gomez. The center-fielder won't get a massive award, but his salary will at least double, to somewhere in the vicinity of a million dollars, which makes him slightly less of a steal. Hardy, of course, will likely make at least five or six times that, so Milwaukee is still getting the "payroll flexibility" they claim to be coveting.

Free Agents:

Mike Cameron (37) CF

Craig Counsell (39) INF

Jason Kendall (36) C

Braden Looper (35) RHSP

Felipe Lopez (30) 2B

Claudio Vargas (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Dave Bush (30) RHSP

Todd Coffey (29) RHRP

Jody Gerut (32) OF

Carlos Gomez (24) CF

Corey Hart (28) RF

Seth McClung (29) RHRP

Mike Rivera (33) C

Carlos Villanueva (26) RHSP

Rickie Weeks (27) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Chris Cody (26) LHSP

Tim Dillard (26) RHP

Alcides Escobar (23) SS

Matt Gamel (24) 3B

Jonathan Lucroy (23) C

Chris Narveson (28) LHSP

Angel Salome (23) C

In the last five years, Milwaukee has become quite possibly the finest small-market franchise in the country. So far, they only have one playoff appearance to show for it, in 2008, largely because they face stiff divisional competition from the Cubs (#3 payroll in '09), Cardinals (#13), and Astros (#9), but the Brewers continually draft well, develop well, and make wise, low-risk acquisitions (Jeff Suppan aside). They have exactly one player signed beyond 2010 and his name is Ryan Braun, one of the safest long term investments in all of baseball, who they've wrapped up all the way to 2015.

GM Doug Melvin made a point of resigning legendary closer Trevor Hoffman before he had a chance to test the free agent market. $8 Million is a significant investment for Milwaukee (who had a total payroll of about $80 Million in '09), but Hoffman was excellent at the back-end of games in his first season with the Brewers and provides veteran leadership in the very young clubhouse (which is likely to lose other popular veterans Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron) and a stabilizing presence in the volatile bullpen.

The Brewers lineup is loaded. The Brewers pitching staff is not. Yovani Gallardo proved himself ready to be an Ace after the departure of C. C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but absolutely nobody stepped up to fill out the rest of the rotation. Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva still possess promising arms, but none of them posted an ERA below 6.00 as starters in '09. Not an encouraging sign. Suppan continued his precipitous early 30s decline. In each of his three years since joining the Brewers, his ERA, WHIP, and BB have gone up, while his wins, innings, and strikeouts have gone down. I defy even the most obstinate sabermetrician to find a positive indicator among his peripherals.

While the Brewers remain stocked with talented hitters in the high levels of the minor leagues, they are not replete with quality arms. Jeremy Jeffress is at least a year or two away. Tim Dillard and Chris Cody regressed at AAA, although there is still time for them to develop into fair back-end starters. Chris Capuano is still recovering from his Tommy John and, Chris Narveson, who pitched very well both at AAA and in a big-league cup of coffee in 2009 is nonetheless a 28-year-old rookie with a minor-league record of 52-66.

If the Brewers could find one top-flight starter to pair with Gallardo, they might be able to cobble together at least an average rotation, which would make them very dangerous, considering their loaded offense. John Lackey is not a good fit. He is too risky and too expensive for a club with significant financial constraints, although he might display Sabathia/Cliff Lee type dominance over the short term with a move to the National League. The Brewers might explore a Ben Sheets renaissance, if he were willing to take an incentive-laden one-year deal to re-establish his value after missing all of '09. It could be a good thing for both parties. Sheets gets to pitch in a stadium, division, and league that he is familiar with while he tries to shake off the rust, and he has a lethal Brewers lineup to take a little pressure off.

In a perfect world, the Brewers would make a run on Roy Halladay. They are among the few teams who have enough prospects to tempt the Blue Jays without completely decimating their team for many years to come. Certainly, it is nice to have a wave of fresh talent every season, as Milwaukee has had in each of the last half dozen years, but at some point they are going to have to be willing to mortgage a bit of the future in order to go for a World Series. That is, unfortunately, a fact of life for teams in the middle and lower payroll tiers. Halladay, paired with Gallardo, Braun, and Fielder, would make the Brewers one of the most feared teams in all of baseball, but he would probably cost Milwaukee at least three of their top five prospects.

Few teams have the excess of talent which makes relatively inexpensive and quality hitters like Hardy, Cameron, and Felipe Lopez expendable, but Milwaukee does. Even after a minor house-cleaning, Ken Macha will be challenged to find regular big-league at-bats for Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Mat Gamel. The Brewers will also have to decide whether they can afford to hand over full-time catching chores to Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy, both rookies. They may decided it is necessary to bring back Kendall in a more limited role. Or, they may look for a cheaper option, somebody who has more experience as a back-up, like Jose Molina, Gregg Zaun, or Ramon Castro.

Braun and Fielder have replaced Manny and Papi as the most consistent and dangerous tandem in baseball, but if the Brewers are going to make a run, the rest of the lineup will need step up. Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks both have tons of talent, but were limited by injuries in '09. They need to step up and become the Brewer's versions of Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Escobar and Gomez will give Milwaukee superior defense up the middle, with the potential to become solid bottom-of-the-lineup producers. Escobar hit over .300 in his 38 game audition in '09, but with no power (.368 SLG). He's still just 23, so there is lots of room for development. The real depth of the Brewers attack may ride on the question of whether Casey McGehee can duplicate his rookie performance. His '09 OPS was significantly higher than any he posted in the minors. If he regresses, then Mat Gamel will need to live up to his hype. His 2008 production was one of the reasons Milwaukee was comfortable parting ways with Matt LaPorta. He took a small step back at AAA, but still showed excellent power and fair plate discipline. If he becomes a legitimate five or six hole slugger, the Brewers lineup may supplant Philadelphia as the best in the NL.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

2B Rickie Weeks (R)

3B Casey McGehee (R)

LF Ryan Braun (R)

1B Prince Fielder (L)

RF Corey Hart (R)

SS Alcides Escobar (R)

CF Carlos Gomez (R)

C Angel Salome (R)

SP Yovani Gallardo (R)

SP Randy Wolf (L)

SP Manny Parra (L)

SP Dave Bush (R)

SP Jeff Suppan (R)

CL Trevor Hoffman (R)

SU LaTroy Hawkins (R)

SU Todd Coffey (R)

LOOGY Mitch Stetter (L)

MR David Riske (R)

SWING Carlos Villanueva (R)

MOP Claudio Vargas (R)

MOP Chris Narveson (L)

C Gregg Zaun (S)

IF Mat Gamel (L)

IF Craig Counsell (L)

OF Jody Gerut (L)