Motown Ready For Rebound?

I've run hot and cold on the tenure of Dave Dombrowski.  I believe that the contract he gave Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs./$152 Mil.) may turn out to be one of the best and most value-driven nine-figure contracts in the game's history.  But that value has been more than offset by excessive contracts handed to Carlos Guillen, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis, among others.

I railed against the trading of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson last winter, but Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer gave Tigers fans lots to be optimistic about this season.  They're both young and inexpensive, and both showed flashes of brilliance.  Meanwhile, both Granderson and E-Jax had down years.  For now, it looks like Dombrowski bested both the Yankees and the D-Backs.  However, he turned around and made a predictably disastrous play for Johnny Damon.  Again, bad decisions offset good decisions.

Now, with Magglio Ordonez, Robertson, and Willis finally coming off the books, Dombrowski has more payroll space than he's had since the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006.  Dombrowski is one of the most active GMs every offseason, but this year he's taking it to a new level.  The Giants had barely finished their parade before the Tigers had announced half a dozen offseason moves.  Most notably, Dombrowski quickly resigned shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, and third baseman, Brandon Inge.  Then he snapped up free agent reliever, Joaquin Benoit.  And, most recently, he tabbed switch-hitting backstop, Victor Martinez.

V-Mart is easy to love.  He's one of the top five hitters at his position, possibly higher (only Joe Mauer is clearly better).  He's beloved by his teammates.  He's utterly consistent (OPS+ between 122 and 130 in every season except injury-plagued '08).  He's got a strong reputation as a game-caller and field general.  However, his age and his inability to control the running game in recent seasons suggest he is probably destined to be a first-baseman or DH by the end of this contract, at which point his production will merely be league-average for his position.

Benoit was arguably the best reliever in the American League last year.  However, $16.5 Million is a lot of money for a 33-year-old reliever who's coming off his best season, is only a year removed from a major injury, and isn't even your closer.  Dombrowski wasn't willing to go to $15 Million for Brandon Lyon last year, even though Lyon was significantly younger, had a better track record, and more closing experience.

In general, there seems to be an inconsistency of philosophy in Detroit's front office.  In '07 and '08 they spent wildly on offensive-minded players like Cabrera, Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Gary Sheffield.  Then they reversed course and went with slick fielders like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.  Now they've once again hired Iron Gloves at key defensive positions.  In every case, they've overpaid slightly for what they're prioritizing.  It's a hard pattern to get behind.

All this activity will promote speculation that the Tigers have moved within striking distance of the White Sox and Twins, both of whom have been utterly quiet thus far.  The division-leading Twins lost nearly their entire bullpen to free agency, as well as their winningest pitcher, their second baseman, and their beloved DH.  The Sox also lost a couple of key relievers, as well as their most productive hitter and their longtime catcher.  Plus Chicago still has question marks at third, in right, and at DH.  Until the offseason shakes out, we won't really know how much of the gap Dombrowski has closed.

That said, if he plans on making a serious run, not only at the AL Central title, but at a pennant, there is still a lot of work to be done.  The pitcher staff is very promising.  Justin Verlander, Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Armando Galarraga comprise a youthful, high-upside rotation.  An additional innings-eater would certainly be nice, but shouldn't be Detroit's top priority.  The bullpen, led by Benoit and Jose Valverde, and supported by young power arms like Daniel Schlereth, Ryan Perry, and Joel "Cross Your Fingers" Zumaya, should also be a strength.  And V-Mart, combined with perennial MVP candidate, Cabrera, make for a legit middle-of-the-order tandem.

The rest of the regulars, however, provide cause for concern, both offensively and defensively. The Tigers outfield situation is very uncertain.  Both Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch had nice rookie campaigns, but their underlying stats suggest they are prime candidates for sophomore slumps.  Jackson's .293 average was boosted by a frankly unsustainable .396 average on balls in play.  His defense should keep him on the field, but he may struggle to be a competent tablesetter.  Boesch's production fell off the table in the second half of 2010, to an extent which suggests his hold on a starting position in 2011 is hardly guaranteed.  The other options currently at Dombrowski's disposal are no more encouraging.  Utilityman, Ryan Raburn, and September call-up, Casper Wells, both played well in limited exposure, but neither profiles as anything more than replacement level at a corner-outfield spot.

The infield defense, especially up the middle, where lead-footed veterans Carlos Guillen and Jhonny Peralta are expected to play, could be among the worst in the AL.  Inefficiency at converting outs could be dangerous for young arms like Scherzer and Porcello, not to mention frustrating for all involved.  As such, Dombrowski may be interested in a slick-fielding second-baseman like Orlando Hudson, which would allow Guillen to be the primary DH, which might help him stay healthy.  Other options could be resigning Magglio Ordonez or another, similar outfield/DH option who could come at a reasonable price.  Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, and Hideki Matsui are some free agents who might fit the profile.  Earlier in the week I also suggest Josh Willingham could be a trade target on the Tigers radar.

As busy as Dombrowski has been early in the Hot Stove season, I think he's still two or three moves away from contending with teams like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays.

The Auspicious Future of Brennan Boesch

On a Friday evening in April, following a barbecue, I sat down to watch a matchup between the Tigers and Rangers in a state of inebriation.  I found myself enamored of a hulking rookie who was making his debut as Detroit's designated hitter.  The 6' 4" lefty had an imposing presence at the plate, somewhat reminiscent of the once-great Pronk (a.k.a. Travis Hafner).  Not possessing the energy at the particular moment to look deeper into the prospects of young Brennan Boesch, who began his career by going 2-for-4, I unceremoniously added him to a number of my deeper fantasy squads in an act of drunken romanticism.  As far as the results of lowered inhibitions go, this was relatively harmless, but I will admit, two days later, when I got around to soberly browsing through Boesch's minor-league stats, I experienced a fleeting but nonetheless tangible flutter of regret in the pit of my stomach.

In at least two leagues I had spent a valuable transaction to procure Boesch, who hadn't posted a OBP above .320 since his first season in low-A Oneonta.  He had developing power, as his hulking body suggested, having hit 28 HR at AA in '09, but we have seen many, many players with Boesch's apparent lack of plate discipline struggle mightily upon reaching the majors.  I guessed, given playing time, that Boesch might be capable of 20-30 HR, but I also imagined, a la Chris Davis, he would be lucky to hit his weight (conservatively listed at 235 lbs.) and could be headed back to AAA in a matter of weeks.

To my considerable amazement (as with everybody else) Boesch is currently the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year in the American League.  He's hitting .337 with 10 HR, 36 RBI, and an astounding 1001 OPS.  That final number is enough to rank fifth in the American League among hitters with at least 175 plate appearances, trailing boppers like Miggy Cabrera, Justin Morneau, and Kevin Youkilis.  Even if a sharp decline is imminent, Boesch has already paid tremendous dividends for all who have owned him through the last couple of months, as only once has he gone as many as four contests without a multi-hit game.  His presence as protection for Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez has much to do with the Tigers hanging around in the AL Central, only a game and a half back of the Twins.

However, before you go judging this as an endorsement of instinctual scouting, I warn that such occasions are exceedingly rare.   A similar state of impaired judgment once convinced me of the imminent greatness of Kyle Lohse.  Almost certainly, Brennan Boesch cannot sustain his current pace of production, but the more serious question is whether he can continue to be a relatively cheap and functional run-producer, akin to Ryan Ludwick or Josh Willingham.  To answer this question, I call your attention to a pair of 2009 Rookie of the Year candidates who also came out of nowhere

Chris Coghlan began 2009 playing second base for the Marlins AAA affiliate in New Orleans.  He was a late first-round draft pick in '06, but at 24, he was becoming "old" for a prospect, and Baseball Prospectus, for one, projected him as a "utility infielder."  Much like Boesch, he began the season by setting fire to the Pacific Coast League, hitting .344 in his first 25 games with speed (9/10 SB) and power (.552 SLG).  Necessity prompted the Marlins to promote him in early May, turning him into an outfielder, and he went bonkers in the second-half, hitting at a .372 clip and becoming a favorite of the Baseball Tonight staff.  In retrospect, this performance was apparently unsustainable.  He had a .406 BABIP after the All-Star Break and slugged more than 100 points higher than he had in the minors.

Like many fantasy pundits, I shied away from Coghlan this spring, and as a result didn't have to to deal with five weeks in which Coghlan's OPS (422) was less than half of what it was in '09 (850) and he appeared dangerously close to demotion.  Since the middle of May, however, Coghlan has again caught fire (935 OPS).

Coghlan and Boesch are not similar hitters.  Coghlan has always been a top-of-the-order type, with good discipline, decent speed, and a high average, but very modest power.  Boesch was quite the opposite, until recently he was a pure swing-from-the-heels masher.  Their similarity lies in the fact that they both show evidence of being from that rare species of "late-bloomers."  Most prospects show a pattern of growth over the course of their professional careers.  It may be two steps forward followed by one step back, but given three or four seasons, you can see obviously incremental improvements in areas like power, discipline, and defense.  Coghlan and Boesch, on the other hand, stayed in a holding pattern until their mid-twenties, than made massive improvements over the course of a single calendar year.  Because of the inherently small sample size created by this phenomenon, it's difficult to tell whether or not they can sustain such production, but both are still young enough (25) that it seems feasible.  It will be important to watch how Boesch responds to his first slump.

Which brings us to Casey McGehee.  McGehee differs from Coghlan and Boesch in that he is older and never showed any signs of being a capable everyday player during his tenure in the minors.  The Brewers brought McGehee to the majors at the beginning of '09 as a utility infielder.  They never envisioned, at that point, that the rookie would be capable of hitting in the middle of their loaded lineup.  And at this particular moment, that judgment seems founded.  McGehee has hit just .177 with a 536 OPS in his last twenty games.  However, during the time when Coghlan was struggling, McGehee was tearing through the NL, racking up 41 RBI in his first 45 games.  His major-league production has been superior to his minor-league production in every single category, by in a long shot in most cases.  At no point did he bat .300 in the minors, yet hit well above .300 in his first 160+ major-league games.

When the league "adjusts," developing a book on the unexpectedly productive rookie, it is usually curtains (see Francouer, Jeff).  For players who are dependent on power, this is even more the case, as an already all-or-nothing approach swings further to the "nothing" side.  Since his recall, Boesch has shown a surprising willingness to use all fields and hit situationally.  When he encounters his first slump, however, he may trend backwards into a Rob Deer disposition.    

Fantastic Thoughts: Super Twos, Super To Use?

It would seem fairly certain at this point that the Pirates will delay Pedro Alvarez's arrival until around midseason, rather than risk his getting "Super Two" status and being eligible for arbitration prior to the 2013 season.  The incumbent third-baseman, Andy LaRoche, has been one of Pittsburgh's best hitters (933 OPS) and Alvarez appears to be suffering through some growing pains in his first month at AAA, managing just a 695 OPS (although with four homers).

The same goes for Jason Castro of the Astros, Brett Wallace of the Blue Jays, and Carlos Santana of the Indians.  With their teams not likely to be headed anywhere this October, it behooves the franchise to delay their development slightly in order to get an additional full-season of cheap production in the future.

Teams which do appear to have legit playoff aspirations, however, now face a very tough decision.  Do they promote a rookie who could help the ballclub immediately, perhaps providing those extra one or two victories necessary to prolong the season, or do they hold off a month or two in order to protect their future payroll?  Here a look at some of the top minor-league hitters: