My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Somebody In the AL Central Will Attain the Glory of 85 Wins

For two straight seasons it has taken 163 games to decide the winner in the AL Central.  And, or two years running, the Central has been the only division in the American League to send a team to the postseason with less than 90 wins.  While the 163rd game is one of the rarest and most beautiful things in baseball, it wouldn't totally surprise me if we had the pleasure of another this October.  Every division except the NL East boasts at least three teams with a reasonable shot at the title.  Of these, the AL Central may be the toughest to call, a supposition supported by the fact that Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections predicted a three-way tie between the White Sox, Tigers, and Twins, each with 80 wins apiece.

While I'd be mighty surprised if nobody in the division managed a .500 record, I think it's safe to say that 90 wins won't be necessary.  All three of the "contenders" have abundant and apparent shortcomings.

The reigning champs, the Twins, finished 12th in the AL in rotational ERA in 2009.  While they went a long way towards fixing their lineup depth problems (which became so apparent in the ALDS) by adding Orlando Hudson and J. J. Hardy, there is still an obvious hole at 3B and they are only an injury away from again deploying the likes of Brendan Harris (672 OPS), Matt Tolbert (611 OPS), and Alexi Casilla (538 OPS).  

The Tigers, following their schizophrenic offseason, don't look a whole lot different from the team that it took 162 games plus twelve innings to eliminate in '09.  Like Minnesota, they've got severe lineup depth problems, with automatic outs like Gerald Laird and Adam Everett, as well as unknown commodities like Scott Sizemore and Austin Jackson.  The bullpen is also a big question mark.  Jose Valverde is an improvement at closer, but it remains to be seen how Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, and Phil Coke will adjust to late-inning roles.

In Chicago, one of the big issues is age, particularly on offense.  The White Sox have four regulars who are 33 or older.  They are asking Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones to step into more prominent roles than they have held the past couple seasons in Los Angeles and Texas, and will need at least one more strong campaign from Paul Konerko and A. J. Pierzynski.  Carlos Quentin and Gordon Beckham be critical top-of-the-order hitters.  They certainly have the talent to perform in that capacity, but not yet the track record.

When looking at three equally flawed franchises I am tempted to say that this division will be determined largely by luck (which is why the Joe Nathan injury looms so large in Minnesota).  None of these teams have tremendous depth on their roster, so even minor injuries can expose significant holes.  It's impossible to guess where those injuries will surface, so instead, for the purposes of my predictions, I looked at management.

Offseason Prospectus #16: The Cleveland Indians

The Indians are one of the most enjoyable franchises to follow and one of the most challenging to evaluate. Mark Shapiro is among the more creative and unpredictable GMs in baseball and the teams he puts together often possess the same characteristics, which isn't always a good thing. During the Noughties, Cleveland won 90+ games four times, and lost 90+ twice. They spent over $90 Million (in 2001) and under $35 Million (in 2004), and pretty much everything between. Players like Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner experienced both ends of the performance spectrum, as candidates (and even winners) of MVPs and Cy Youngs, but also falling dramatically short of expectations in intervening years.

As recently as 2007 the Indians made it as far as Game 7 of the ALCS. They looked like a franchise poised to compete for years to come. However, their winning percentage dropped by nearly 100 points in each of the next two seasons and now, having dealt C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, Franklin Gutierrez, Mark DeRosa, Carl Pavano, Rafael Betancourt, Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Garko, and Ben Francisco in the span of fourteen months, they appear to be franchise firmly in a rebuilding mode. Only ten players from the 2007 ALCS roster remain in the Cleveland organization.

This isn't unfamiliar territory. In 2005, when they had one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball, the Indians surprised everybody by winning 93 games and making a serious run on the AL Wild Card, going 38-16 (.704) in the seasons final two months. The next year, with a team of much the same composition, seemingly poised for contention, they again fell beneath .500. When it comes to Shapiro's Indians, looks can be deceiving.

Free Agents:

Jamey Carroll (36) IF [Signed w/ Dodgers]

Masa Kobayashi (36) RHRP [Signed w/ Yomiuri Giants]

Tomo Ohka (34) RHP

Jose Veras (29) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Rafael Perez (28) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

Michael Brantley (23) OF

Jordan Brown (26) OF

Carlos Carrasco (23) RHSP

Jeanmar Gomez (22) RHSP

Matt LaPorta (25) 1B/OF

Lou Marson (24) C

Vinnie Pestano (25) RHRP

Johan Pino (26) RHSP

Carlos Santana (24) C

Jess Todd (24) RHRP

Nick Weglarz (22) LF

The Indians organization has been for the last two decades one of the best in baseball at drafting and developing talent. Although financial restraints prevent them from retaining all of that talent, they firmly believe in replenishing the system via trades. Their success this season will be based mainly upon the production of those players who were acquired when Cleveland traded the veterans listed above.

Matt LaPorta was the centerpiece of the Sabathia deal with Milwaukee in 2008. The Indians weren't sure going into the year whether LaPorta was a left-fielder or a first-baseman. During his first promotion, playing primarily left field, LaPorta struggled, managing only a 571 OPS over the course of an eleven-game stretch in May. The Indians sent him back to AAA, and when he returned, he posted an admirable 805 OPS through forty games in August and September. After trading Ryan Garko and Michael Aubrey, it appears that Cleveland will enter 2010 withe LaPorta as their everyday first-baseman. LaPorta's minor-league stats (941 OPS, for instance) suggest he has the power to hold down that position. If he can provide protection for Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, Cleveland could produce runs in bunches. It is a balanced attack, with

power and speed from both sides of the plate, as well as solid defense up the middle.

The Indians rotation, on the other hand, is filled with once-promising prospects for whom this is probably the last chance. Fausto Carmona epitomizes the group. After being among the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2007, winning 19 games and posting a 3.06 ERA, Carmona has taken huge steps backward in each of the past two seasons. In 2009 he went 5-12 with an abyssmal 6.32 ERA. However, Carmona is still only 26 years old, perfectly capable of becoming a quality starter, if not the Ace he looked like a couple years ago.

Similarly, Anthony Reyes was once considered among the top pitching prospects. He threw eight strong innings in the first game of the 2006 World Series, at the age of 24. However, it has been mostly downhill from there. He went just 2-14 for the Cardinals in '07. He was traded to the Tribe midway through '08 and looked great down the stretch, posting a 1.80 ERA in his first six starts with his new team. But in '09 he was plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness. At the age of 28, he doesn't have many chances left.

The same can be said of Jeremy Sowers, the promising Vanderbilt Ace who's now made 71 major-league starts, but won only 17 of them. Aaron Laffey, another left-hander who breezed through the minor leagues, has also struggled to perform at the major-league level, posting a 4.42 ERA in 44 starts.

All of these pitchers are young enough that Cleveland is willing to give them at least another year of opportunities, but if Shapiro doesn't see significant maturation, 2011 may mark the end of his patience. The Indians next crop of hurlers is coming up the pipeline, buoyed by the additions of Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, and Johan Pino via Shapiro's flurry of trades last summer. Nobody in the Opening Day rotation will have a particularly long leash.

The Indians have a lot to work out going into Spring Training. Not only is the rotation pretty much a free-for-all, the Tribe will be looking at multiple candidates for left field, second base, catcher, and in the bullpen, where Kerry Wood, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith are probably the only pitchers who have locked up spots in advance.

The battle for backstop is particularly interesting as it features two 24-year-olds who are both among the top prospects at their position. Lou Marson, who came to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal, got a couple cups of coffee in 2009 and posted a 708 OPS between Cleveland and Philadelphia. Marson doesn't possess much power, but he is a quality defender who gets on base at a very high rate (.433 OBP at AA in '08, .382 at AAA prior to the trade in '09). Carlos Santana hasn't advanced past AA yet, but he is one of the top hitting prospects around. In 132 AA games, he's hit 24 HR, driven in 99 runs, and posted a 939 OPS. If he can prove himself defensively, he is probably the Indians catcher of the future. If not, he is probably their DH of the future.

There are currently only three men on the Indians 40-man roster over the age of thirty: Kerry Wood, Jake Westbrook, and Travis Hafner. Each of them possesses an ungainly contract, so they probably won't be featured on next season's trading block unless they have an unexpected renaissance. Rather, they will be asked, along with Cleveland's new manager, Manny Acta, to guide a clubhouse full of exciting young talents. Although it is probably a truly long shot for Cleveland to surge to the front of their division (which is, to be fair, a division without an obvious powerhouse), by August of 2010, I expect none of the contenders will be looking forward to playing meaningful games against the Indians and in 2011 they may be favorites in the AL Central. Which, based on the contrarian perspective outlined above, may not be a position of strength.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Grady Sizemore (L)

SS Asdrubel Cabrera (S)

RF Shin-Soo Choo (L)

DH Travis Hafner (L)

1B Matt LaPorta (R)

3B Jhonny Peralta (R)

C Carlos Santana (S)

LF Michael Brantley (L)

2B Luis Valbuena (L)

SP Jake Westbrook (R)

SP Fausto Carmona (R)

SP Aaron Laffey (L)

SP Anthony Reyes (R)

SP Jeremy Sowers (L)

CL Kerry Wood (R)

SU Joe Smith (R)

SU Tony Sipp (L)

MR Jensen Lewis (R)

MR Chris Perez (R)

LOOGY Rafael Perez (L)

SWING Justin Masterson (R)

C Lou Marson (R)

1B/3B Andy Marte (R)

2B/SS Jason Donald (R)

OF Trevor Crowe (S)

The Keys to the Toolshed

ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that former Washington National's manager, Manny Acta, has been offered a managerial job by both the Indians and the Astros. He has elected, according to ESPN, to take over the reigns in Cleveland (good choice).

Why, one might be inclined to ask, is a 40-year-old who never advanced past A-ball as a player and has a lifetime winning percentage of .385 suddenly in such high demand? There must be something underlying Acta's tenure with the Nationals which impressed the Indians and Astros front offices, because he damn sure isn't getting this job based on his results.

I'm guessing it had something to do with his familiarity with adversity. Acta's Nationals were not only plagued by mediocrity on the field, but were subject to a constant stream of distractions off it. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Wily Mo Pena, and Dmitri Young, unfortunately, made headlines for a variety of extracurricular activities, and the front office was plagued by scandal as well, culminating in a rash of firings and the resignation of GM Jim Bowden last March.

From my perspective, Acta appeared composed throughout, striving always to make the best of a bad situation. Faced with a stream of questions designed to extract criticism, Acta always took the high road. When he had to, on separate occasions, demote Milledge and Dukes, talented players who were supposed to be at the core of the Nats' rebuilding process, he always expressed a great deal of respect for their talent and work ethic, and assurance that they would be back in the bigs very soon. When his already piecework bullpen absolutely imploded early in 2009, due to injuries and generally shoddy construction, Acta did not pass the buck, laying blame on players or the front office, which would've been easy to do. He juggled the remaining pieces, admitted that he had not found successful roles for all his pitchers yet, but urged the remaining corps to rise above expectations. Although he wasn't around to see it, that is exactly what happened. After going 12-for-30 in save opportunities during the first half, the Nats were 21-for-28 the rest of the way, despite the fact that they never added a bonafide lockdown reliever (Mike MacDougal definitely does not count).

In Cleveland, Acta will again be handed a team in disarray. Many of the franchises most popular and longest tenured players - C. C. Sabathia, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, Cliff Lee, Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco, and Rafael Betancourt - have been unloaded in an effort to slice payroll and rebuild the farm system after disappointing finishes in the last two campaigns. But the Indians are still carrying some bloated contracts (Travis Hafner, Jack Westbrook, Kerry Wood), so huge free agent acquisitions, never a big part of the Indians' philosophy, are probably not in the offing. The teams core of promising young talent, represented most clearly by Grady Sizemore, Fausto Carmona, and Asdrubel Cabrera, has not lived up to the potential demonstrated during the team's 2007 run to the ALCS. The front office will be looking especially for somebody who will motivate them, both to perform and to lead.

The good news for Acta and, perhaps, one of the reasons he appealed to GM Mark Shapiro, is that the Indians, like the Nationals, are very young, with lots of room for maturation. Hafner, Wood, and Westbrook are the elder-statesman on this team. Each is only 32. With the exception of Hafner, nobody projected to be in next year's Opening Day lineup is older than 27. The vast majority of the roster will be under control for several years to come, so Acta has a promise of stability he certainly never experienced in Washington, where the turnover rate was almost humorously high.

Cleveland's Probable 2010 Roster:

CF Grady Sizemore (27)
SS Asdrubel Cabrera (23)
RF Shin-Soo Choo (27)
DH Travis Hafner (32)
1B Matt LaPorta (24)
3B Jhonny Peralta (27)
LF Michael Brantley (22)
C Carlos Santana (23)
2B Luis Valbuena (23)

RHSP Fausto Carmona (25)
RHSP Justin Masterson (24)
RHSP Anthony Reyes (28)
RHSP Jake Westbrook (32)
LHSP David Huff (25)
LHSP Aaron Laffey (24)

C Lou Marson (23)
1B/3B Andy Marte (26)
OF Trevor Crowe (25)

CL Kerry Wood (32)
RHRP Chris Perez (24)
RHRP Jensen Lewis (25)
RHRP Joe Smith (25)
LHRP Rafael Perez (27)
LHRP Tony Sipp (26)
LHRP Jeremy Sowers (26)

In addition to the litany of fresh-faced players listed above, the Indians have several prospects on the verge, including RHSP Carlos Carrasco (25), SS Jason Donald (25), and OF Nick Weglarz (21). Shapiro will probably attempt to add some depth and take a little pressure off his youngsters by signing a couple of inexpensive, cagey veterans this offseason. Don't look for him to make a splash with Matt Holliday or John Lackey. He will be looking for role players with good "intangibles." Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, or Doug Davis might be a good fit.

Clearly, many teams looked at Washington as a team destined to fail and not as a reflection on Manny Acta. The same will not be true of Cleveland, where there is stability in the front office and many strong pieces already in place. He will have a season, maybe two, to work out the growing pains, but it will not be an extremely long leash. If the Indians aren't headed back to the playoffs by 2012, expect Acta to be once again looking for a job, at which time he probably won't be an any position to be choosy.

What September means for April...

There are two teams in the AL this September that nobody wants to face.  No, not the Red Sox, nor the Angels.  These two teams don't have any chance at making the postseason.  The New York Yankees are not one of them, nor the Detroit Tigers, despite the powerful lineups they boast.  The hottest teams in baseball at the moment are the Cleveland Indians and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Sure, the extended winning streaks they've put up in recent weeks are a bit fluky, but serious fantasy baseball players should be taking note of the performances which might fly a bit under the radar, but have serious implications for 2009.

Everybody knows about Toronto's pitching staff.  You aren't going to sneak Roy Halladay through your auction or draft, nor A. J. Burnett, nor probably Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, or even Jesse Litsch.  What made the Blue Jays highly beatable in the first half of the season was their paltry offense.  Vernon Wells was injured, as was Scott Rolen.  Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay slumped.  John Gibbons chose to go with mediocre veterans like Brad Wilkerson and Shannon Stewart instead of trust young players like Adam Lind.  Cito Gaston has not had the same problem.  And the Blue Jays are showing that scoring runs may not be a big an issue for them come 2009.  As a team, the Jays scored 20 more runs in August than in any previous month (that's almost a 20% spike) and they are batting .311 so far in September.   Alex Rios is batting .312 with 9 HR during the All-Star Break, much to the delight of those who "wasted" an early round pick on him.  One of Gaston's first acts as manager was inserting Lind into the lineup everyday.  Lind has rewarded him by hitting .317 with 9 HR, 39 RBI, and an 868 OPS in 64 games since, suggesting that he is definitely a candidate for a breakout season when he turns 25 in 2009.  Vernon Wells has only played about half a season's worth of games, but has managed 16 HR and 66 RBI in that half, proving that his disappointing 2007 was merely a fluke.  Joe Inglett and Travis Snider have also been impressive in limited action.  Expect them to take on larger roles in 2009.  

After trading David Eckstein and Matt Stairs late in the season, Toronto will definitely be in the market for a shortstop and a 1B/OF/DH-type during the offseason, but it is a team with great depth in pitching and very few obvious holes.  Toronto, of course, has the misfortune of playing in the AL East, but I expect them to carry their late-season momentum into next year and make a serious run at contention.

Cleveland also plays in a deep division.  They have been alternating good and bad years since '05.  If the pattern holds, they'll be due for upwards of 90 wins in 2009.  Despite the loss of Sabathia and Byrd, the Indians still have two Aces atop their rotation in Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, plus a stockpile of high-potential young arms.  They can focus their free agent dollars on solving their bullpen issues and improving the offense, an offense which hasn't been that bad.  They are eighth in the AL in scoring, but that's without Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.  No team can be expected to be at their best without two middle-of-the-order caliber hitters.  Ben Francisco has had a fairly successful rookie campaign, hitting 14 HR with 51 RBI in only 400 AB.  Asdrubel Cabrera and Franklin Guttierrez took modest steps backward, but still look like promising players.  Sizemore is a legit MVP candidate and Jhonny Peralta is among the most underrated players in baseball.  All of these guys should be on your radar next spring, as should Matt LaPorta and Michael Aubrey, prospects that might earn starting roles early next year.