BBWAA Drinks Michele Bachmann's Bathwater (or, Cooperstown, Arizona)

As Ken Burns' Tenth Inning documentary so subtly points out, if we weren't so inclined to call the last two decades of baseball history "The Steroid Era," they would most certainly be defined by the influx of immigrant ballplayers - from Europe, from Asia, and especially from Latin America.  If you demarcate the Steroid Era from the introduction of the "Bash Brothers" (1987) to the retirement of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds (2007), you see a heretofore unparalleled degree of Hispanic talent.  The Nineties and Naughties were for Latino players and fans what the '50s and '60s had been for African-Americans.

When the "Puerto Rican Jackie Robinson," Roberto Clemente, died bringing supplies to Nicaraguan earthquake victims in the winter of 1973, the BBWAA rightly held a special election, the first and still the only of its kind.  They enshrined Clemente without the usual five-year waiting period.  However, since that time the BBWAA's recognition of Hispanic players has been relatively sparing.  When Roberto Alomar takes the stage in Cooperstown this summer, he will be only the fifth Latino voted in by the BBWAA.  That's right, in nearly forty years the BBWAA has found only five Hispanics worthy of induction: Juan Marichal ('83), Luis Aparicio ('84), Rod Carew ('91), Tony Perez ('00), and Alomar ('11).  A handful of other deserving Hispanic stars, most notably Orlando Cepeda, had to find their way into the Hall through the back door (a.k.a. The Veterans Committee), which only further highlights the BBWAA's distressingly prejudicial track record.

But that's about to change, right?  Alomar is but the first of the floodtide of Puerto Rican, Domincan, Venezuelan, and Cuban megastars who came to dominate the game during the Clinton-Bush decades and will eventually wash up on the Elysium shores of Cooperstown.  Their entrance into the Hall cannot be denied, right?

Not so fast.

You see, one of the dirty little secrets about the tacit ban of PED-abusers being enforced by the BBWAA voters is that it cuts broadly swatches in the Latin-American baseball legacy.  I'm not saying that's it's overt aim, but it is what's happening.  And, when it comes to prejudicial treatment, rationales generally don't carry much water.  Yes, Bonds and Clemens grab more headlines and have been the subject of more legal prosecution (or persecution, depending on how you look at it), but their notoriety, coupled with that of Mark McGwire, may mislead us into seeing this as a black and white issue (pardon the horrible pun).

It always feels a little dirty breaking things down along racial lines, but I think it's necessary to see what I'm taking about.  In the wake of Jeff Bagwell's poor showing, it seems clear the BBWAA intends to stigmatize not only convicted and/or admitted abusers, but also those who have been indicted by widespread rumor.  Here's a rough list of Hall of Fame candidates (let me emphasize, some of these guys would be borderline cases, even without the PED issue) who have been branded with the Scarlet S:

African-American:

Barry Bonds*
Gary Sheffield*

Caucasian:

Roger Clemens*
Mark McGwire*
Jeff Bagwell
Jason Giambi
Andy Pettitte
Kevin Brown

Hispanic:

Alex Rodriguez*
Sammy Sosa*
Manny Ramirez*
Rafael Palmeiro*
Ivan Rodriguez*
David Ortiz
Juan Gonzalez
Jose Canseco
Miguel Tejada
Luis Gonzalez

*Denotes lock for enshrinement if it weren't for PED allegations.

No doubt there will be additions to this list in the intervening years.  Every voter who sees himself as a "moral policeman" has probably already passed judgement on a few players who the general public may not even suspect.  What I want to draw your attention to is the "stars."

Were it not for the stigma of PEDs, we would, over the next decade, be seeing the Hispanic "wing" of the Hall of Fame adding as many members as it did in the entirety of the previous century.  In fact, with guys like Pedro Martinez, Vladimir Guerrero, Omar Vizquel, and Mariano Rivera also gaining eligibility sometime in the relatively near future (none, so far as I know, has yet been linked to PEDs), we could've seen the total Latino contingent as much as tripling in size during the early part of the 21st century.

No place was more associated with the revolution of Latino baseball than the Dominican Republic.  Most now regard the island as the greatest concentration of baseball talent in the world.  As yet, however, there is only one Dominican Hall of Famer, Juan Marichal.  No Dominican position players have been inducted.  Sammy Sosa, who self-consciously took the mantle of "Dominican Clemente," was supposed to change that.  In terms of power-hitting, his five season stretch from '98 to '02 is unparalleled in history.  He leads all Dominican-born players in homers.  But, unless something changes, he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

Nor will Manny Ramirez, possibly the greatest hitter of the Dominican Immigration Era (I'd argue Albert Pujols, but Manny did get a seven-year headstart, making him more of a groundbreaker).  By the end of this season, Manny will lead all Dominican players in hits, runs, doubles, walks, and RBI.  Yet we may have to wait until five years after Pujols retires (2025? 2030?) to see the induction of a Dominican hitter.    

Pudge Rodriguez will likely be the first catcher to 3000 hits.  He was the best of a generation of Latino backstops who revolutionized the position, including Benito Santiago (Puerto Rico), Tony Pena (Dominican Republic), Sandy Alomar Jr. (P.R.), and the Molina brothers (P.R.).  Prior to late '80s, it was totally normal to give Gold Gloves to fat white catchers who didn't throw anybody out.  Then stuff like this started happening routinely.  It's not exaggeration to say Puerto Rican catchers changed the game; however, the BBWAA probably won't find room for a Puerto Rican catcher in Cooperstown.

Rafael Palmeiro was born in Havana, Cuba in 1964.  It wasn't the most important thing that happened in Cuba that year.  But he became, far and away, the most successful Cuban hitter in Major League Baseball history, only the fourth player (of any nationality) to get 3000 hits and 500 homers.  But there's no room for this defector in Cooperstown.

Over the next decade Alex Rodriguez will take aim at several major records.  When he retires, he will be included in the "greatest ever" discussion, alongside Ruth, Bonds, and Mays.  He'll be the first player of Hispanic descent to enter into that conversation.  But, unless something changes, he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

For a long time now, baseball has been a global game.  Hell, MLB has been actively touting itself as such for at least a decade.  Yet, for some odd reason, from 2001 to 2010, during a decade defined by globalization, the BBWAA voted in eight white guys and eight black guys, all born in the United States. That ratio has got to change, but a contingent of patronizing writers within the BBWAA have found a way to assure that it won't, at least not as drastically as it should.

In 21st-Century America, we are sensitive to accusations of racism, which is, perhaps, a good place to start.  But it doesn't mean we aren't racist.  When we want to drum up racist or nativist sentiments, we rail against illegal immigrants, welfare mothers, the uneducated and unemployed, drug abusers, and terrorists.  It isn't our fault that most of the people who make up these criticized constituencies happen to be minorities.  If they happen to observe that their minority status may be the precursor to lack of opportunity, education, etc. which is the stated grounds for their persecution, we call it "perceived racism."  There is no such thing.

The BBWAA has to ask themselves, when history looks back at their moral crusade, what will the Scarlet S really stand for.

Offseason Prospectus #15: The Washington Nationals

Bud Selig was so sure about moving the Expos out of Montreal. He was so sure that he forcefully promoted the relocation and even contraction for years, despite protests from fans and the players union, dissent from other teams and MLB executives, and even massive lawsuits, some which charged him with racketeering. In an unprecedented and ethically dubious arrangement, MLB actually owned and operated the Expos for three seasons from 2002 until 2004, after which they became the Washington Nationals. In Washington, where there would soon be a new stadium (opened in 2008), Selig assured us that the franchise would become popular, competitive, and profitable.

2009, the fifth full season of Washington Nationals baseball, was the worst yet. Not only did the Nats post their worst winning percentage (.364) since moving to D.C., it was the franchises worst performance since 1976. And the putrid on-field performance paled in comparison to the shenanigans of the front office. Before the season even began a scandal with there South American scouting led to a host of firings and the resignation of the General Manager. At midseason, the Nats also fired their field manager, Manny Acta, who has since signed on to manage the Cleveland Indians. Frustration with the direction of the team caused an alarming rate of fan attrition, as attendance dropped to its lowest rate ever. Only 1.8 million fans paid for Nats tickets in 2009, that's over a million less than in their first season of existence. On one particularly sad day in early June, Randy Johnson picked up his 300th win in front of a crowd so small that the Nationals refused to release the attendance figures. This, my friends, is not a franchise headed in the right direction.

Free Agents:

Livan Hernandez (35) RHSP

Mike MacDougal (33) RHRP

Austin Kearns (30) RF

Saul Rivera (32) RHRP

Ron Villone (40) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jason Bergmann (28) RHSP

Sean Burnett (27) RHRP

Jesus Flores (25) C

Wil Nieves (32) C

Scott Olsen (26) LHSP

Josh Willingham (31) LF

ETA 2010?:

Ian Desmond (24) SS

Justin Maxwell (26) OF

Stephen Strasburg (21) RHSP

Drew Storen (22) RHRP

Aaron Thompson (23) LHSP

Despite having one of the worst overall seasons in the franchise's history, there was one bright spot in 2009. Washington had earned the #1 pick in the June draft. With it, they selected what many believe to be the best pitching prospect of all time, the triple-digit phenom from San Diego State, Stephen Strasburg. Most scouts believe Strasburg is ready to pitch in the majors immediately. The fan base could use the thrill of seeing a massive talent every fifth game, but the Nats may choose to be cautious and slow his movement towards free agency by keeping him in the minors for a least a couple months (as the Rays did with Evan Longoria in '08 and Orioles did with Matt Wieters last season).

For much of the Nationals existence they have had to field a rotation of cast-offs and also-rans, relying heavily on guys like Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, and Tim Redding, pitchers who epitomize the AAAA player. Thankfully, after a number of high draft picks, the Nationals are ready to field a rotation with a lot of talent, though not a lot of experience. Strasburg (21) heads a group of freshman and sophomores which also includes Jordan Zimmerman (24), Ross Detwiler (24), Shairon Martis (23), Craig Stammen (25), and Aaron Thompson (23). All of these pitchers have the talent to become quality starters. It may not happen in 2010, but at least the potential is there and Nats fans can indulge a little hope every time out.

The veteran leadership will be provided by John Lannan (only 25), Scott Olsen (only 26), and recent, somewhat inexplicable free agent signing, Jason Marquis (31). What Marquis possesses is a rubber arm. He hardly every misses a start and he'll keep his team within striking distance for six innings a start. When the rest of the staff, including the bullpen, is young, such durability and consistency is valuable, even if the quality is, at best, league average. Lannan, on the other hand, is among the most unsung pitchers in the game. In two full seasons he has made 64 starts and posted a 3.89 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, very quality production for a player who just turned 25 and plays for a decrepit franchise. His upside is Mark Buehrle-esque.

The Nationals bullpen became a running joke during the first half of 2009, and it was one of the main reasons Manny Acta got himself fired. The Nats converted only 57% of their save opportunities in 'o9 (worst in MLB), and that number was even lower before they acquired Mike MacDougal, who went 20 for 21 from June 17 to the end of the season. They were also last in the majors in bullpen ERA (5.09). So, it makes sense that they performed a full overhaul, trading, releasing, or not re-signing eight players who pitched 25 or more relief innings in '09, including MacDougal. The question now is, who's going to eat those innings.

The Nats signed Matt Capps, presumably to close, but though he is younger and has more upside than MacDougal, he is also more expensive and was among the least efficient closers in all of baseball for Pittsburgh last year. Washington also added Doug Slaten and Brian Bruney to fill out the bullpen corps (and will have a look a Eddie Guardado during Spring Training), but will probably rely most heavily on the development of Tyler Clippard (2.69 ERA, 67 K in 60 IP in '09), Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, and their "other" 2009 first-rounder, Drew Storen.

Washington actually outscored traditional powerhouses like the Mets, Cubs, and Astros in '09, finishing in the middle of the pack in the NL. Adam Dunn did what he was paid to do, crushing 38 HR and driving in 105 runs. Ryan Zimmerman benefitted greatly from the improved protection, and at 24 posted his biggest season to date (.292, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 110 R, 888 OPS). Additionally, the Nats had to be pleasantly surprised by the production of Josh Willingham (24 HR, 863 OPS) and Nyjer Morgan (.369 OBP, 42 SB). If the Nats are to take a step forward offensively in '10, they will need those four to hold steady, and they will need improved production from Elijah Dukes and whoever is playing second base. It is unclear whether Washington has any more money to spend, but if they do, they could be bidders on the remaining middle-infielders, guys like Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, and Kelly Johnson. Or, more likely, they could go after a utilityman, perhaps Chad Tracy, Jerry Hairston, or Adam Kennedy.

The signing of Marquis and Capps surprised pundits this winter, but the biggest surprise was the signing of 38-year-old legendary backstop, Pudge Rodriguez, to a two-year, $6 Million contract. Pudge's numbers have been in consistent decline since 2006, which isn't surprising, considering his age and the toll of his position. In '09 he managed just a 663 OPS, but he still manages the running game (35% CS in '09) and handles the pitching staff. The logic of this signing will come down to how the Nats use him. If he is primarily Jesus Flores' backup, tutoring a youngster who is, at 25, one of the better young catching prospects in the game (he posted an 877 OPS in limited action in '09), than the signing makes a lot of sense. If Pudge cuts into Flores' development by demanding the bulk of the playing time, than his presence is counterproductive.

I think that the Washington faithful can look forward to small step in the right direction in 2010, but the Nats are a long way from flowering the way that Tampa Bay has in recent years. They have accumulated a nice selection of pitching prospects, but they need to promote their offense as well. Next offseason will be critical, as Adam Dunn and Christian Guzman will enter free agency, freeing up a lot of cash. What the front office does with it may determine whether the Nats head towards becoming the Rays or the Royals.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Nyjer Morgan (L)

SS Christian Guzman (S)

3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

1B Adam Dunn (L)

LF Josh Willingham (R)

RF Elijah Dukes (R)

C Jesus Flores (R)

2B Willie Harris (R)

SP John Lannan (L)

SP Scott Olsen (L)

SP Jason Marquis (R)

SP Stephen Strasburg (R)

SP Jordan Zimmerman (R)

CL Matt Capps (R)

SU Tyler Clippard (R)

SU Drew Storen (R)

MR Brian Bruney (R)

MR Sean Burnett (L)

LOOGY Doug Slaten (L)

MOP Jason Bergmann (R)

C Ivan Rodriguez (R)

2B/SS Alberto Gonzalez (R)

2B/3B Adam Kennedy (L) FA

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

OF Justin Maxwell (R)