GM Hot Seat: Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers

Clearly, Colletti's job is safe, so long as McCourt Divorcegate continues, which will likely be deep into the 2011 season, if not beyond.  But, at some point down the line, either Frank, Jamie, or a new owner is going to be looking to put this extremely unfortunate chapter in the Dodgers history in the rearview mirror and, at that point, everybody in the current administration will be put under the microscope.

Sure, Colletti's got a few things to hang his hat on.  The Dodgers have been to the playoffs three times in his five years as GM, and advanced all the way to the NLCS on two of those occasions.  He masterminded the acquisition of Manny Ramirez, which was wildly successful...until it wasn't, but he hardly could've foreseen Manny's suspension and rapid decline.  He brought in Joe Torre, who was the most popular Dodger manager since Tommy Lasorda.  And, he's proved himself an aggressive wheeler and dealer, trading for helpful players like Casey Blake, Ron Belliard, Jim Thome, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, etc. at times when they were needed to fill key roles and he never gave up a whole lot in return.

Of course, underlying the solid track record of success on the field is the open secret among the Dodger faithful; most of the talent responsible for the deep runs in 2008 and 2009 came from the tenures of Coletti's predecessors, Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta.  Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jonathan Broxton were all drafted (or signed) prior to Colletti's arrival in 2006.  It's probably too early to fairly evaluate Colletti's drafting and development record, but his only pick to pan out thusfar is Clayton Kershaw.

As for Colletti's record in free agency, that's very easy to address, and the results aren't good.  He's got four major busts - Manny, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones - who together cost the organization well over $150 Million.  And, while Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda, and Rafael Furcal have all earned their money, they haven't exactly been bargains.

Colletti isn't going to survive close scrutiny by the "new" administration, whomever that is, unless he can demonstrate that 2010 was just a blip on the radar.  He needs to get competitive again, right away.  The flurry of activity in Los Angeles early in the Hot Stove season suggests Colletti's well aware of that fact.  It took him less than a month to shore up his 2011 rotation behind young power arms Billingsley and Kershaw.

First, he resigned midseason acquisition Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33 Million deal that will take the junkballing control specialist into his late 30s.  Lilly's prolonged durability (he's averaged 30 starts a season over the last eight years) and his soft-tossing style suggest he can continue to have success at that late age, much like Jamie Moyer has, so the length of the deal is defensible.  In fact, considering how thin the pitching ranks are this winter, there's a strong likelihood Lilly could've gotten more had he tested the market.

Same goes for Hiroki Kuroda, who Colletti resigned for one year at $12 Million. Kuroda, coming of a season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, probably would've been viewed as the second or third best starter available, behind Cliff Lee, and certainly could've gotten a multiyear deal. However, Kuroda is comfortably in L.A. and seems to want to leave himself the option of returning to Japan in 2012, so he gave Colletti a hometown discount.

Finally, this past week Colletti finished an inexpensive deal for Jon Garland, coming off one of the best years of his career.  Again, it seems likely Garland could've gotten more money or more years had he waited for the pitching market to develop, but he wanted to stay near his home in SoCal, so he took a $5 Million deal with an $8 Million option.  The option kicks in automatically if Garland reaches 190 innings.  Dodgers fans should be warned, he's reached that target every season since 2002, so this should be presumed to be a two-year, $13 Million deal.

All things considered, assuming Billingsley and Kershaw continue to progress towards being tandem Aces, this is a solid corps of starters.  Garland and Lilly can definitely be termed "innings-eaters," as they've proved themselves extremely durable, which should help the Dodger bullpen, which has had a heavy workload the last couple seasons.

Colletti followed his rotational renovations with a somewhat controversial contract offer to veteran utilityman, Juan Uribe, who is coming off a resurgent tenure with the Dodgers archrival.  Uribe helped the Giants by playing solid defense at several infield positions and providing some power as well, but he's definitely a risky investment at three years, $21 Million, which more than doubles what he was making in 2010.  Uribe will probably start as the Dodgers everyday second-baseman, but could move to short or third in 2012, after Blake and Furcal are scheduled to become free agents.  Uribe has a little thunder in his bat.  He's a good bet for around 20 HR.  But his career .300 OBP could make him a bit of a liability, especially in a lineup that is already short on patient hitters.

Most recently, Colletti elected to non-tender longtime catcher, Russell Martin, and middle reliever, George Sherrill, rather than offer them arbitration that could've cost as much as $15 Million.  He replaced Sherrill with Blake Hawksworth, acquired in a trade with the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot.  And, rumor has it, will soon replace Martin with Rod Barajas, probably for something like $2 Million in 2011.  While Martin certainly has the talent to make the Dodgers regret this move, in the short-term it gives Colletti some flexibility.  Even after the signing outlined above and potentially expensive arbitration hearings with Billingsley, Loney, and Kuo, the Dodgers should still be $3-5 Million under their payroll from 2010.

As noted above, I believe Colletti is feeling the pressure to win in 2011, but, considering the Dodgers current investments (including around $20 Million still due to Ramirez, Jones, and Pierre next year) and the McCourt "situation" there is little chance they can get into the bidding on Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or even Paul Konerko.  This leaves Colletti with a difficult decision.  The 2010 roster that finished in fourth place in the NL West was not that different from the one that went to the NLCS in each of the previous seasons.  Unfortunately, much of the young talent regressed substantially last year, especially Kemp, Loney, and Broxton.  One could very easily speculate that they will return to form in 2011, which could be enough to get the Dodgers right back in the thick of it.  However, it also could be that Ethier, Kemp, and Loney are not ready to carry the offense by themselves and need a veteran slugger (like Manny) to take some of the pressure off.

Colletti could probably go get such a player via trade, but it might mean mortgaging the future.  Prince Fielder would certainly fit the bill, but would definitely cost the team Loney and a couple of top prospects and he would almost certainly be unsignable a year from now.  But if the Dodgers go to the playoffs, thereby protecting Colletti's job, wouldn't it be worth it?  To Colletti at least?

On the other hand, Colletti could look to some of the riskier trade candidates like Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham.  Such players could probably be had without decimating the farm system, but there is a much higher likelihood they could be busts, either due to injuries or ineffectiveness.

The fact is, time is running short for this incarnation of the Dodgers.  Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Loney, Billingsley, and Kuo will all be free agents by the end of the 2012 season.  Considering how much success this cast of players had very early in their careers, anything short of a World Series appearance would have to be considered a failure.  If they don't get within striking distance of that goal in 2011, I expect the blame game to begin.  First-year manager Don Mattingly will probably get a pass.  Colletti will not.  It's time for him to prove that he's not just another example of Frank McCourt's incompetence.

Offseason Prospectus #14: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The conventional wisdom this offseason has been that L.A. has not and will not be a major player in the free agent market because of the messy divorce proceedings between owner, Frank McCourt, and his wife and former Dodger CED, Jamie McCourt. I don't care to speculate too much regarding this subject, except to say, it is probably in the best interests of the franchise if Jamie is awarded the team when all is said and done. She is clearly more familiar with the daily operations of the franchise and perhaps more dedicated to the teams success (as she has made it her sole priority since 2004). Since the McCourts took over, the Dodgers have had only one losing season and, under the leadership of Paul DePodesta (GM '04-'05) and Ned Colletti (GM '06-Present), as well as Jim Tracy (Manager '04-'05), Grady Little ('06-'07), and Joe Torre ('08-Present) they have made four playoff appearances and assembled perhaps the best collection of homegrown stars in all of baseball.

Ponder this list for a few moments:

RHSP Chad Billingsley (25) Drafted in 2003 (1st Round)

RF Andre Ethier (28) Drafted in 2003 (2nd Round)

OF Xavier Paul (25) Drafted in 2003 (4th Round)

CF Matt Kemp (25) Drafted in 2003 (6th Round)

SS Chin-Lung Hu (26) Signed in 2003 as Amateur Free Agent

1B James Loney (26) Drafted in 2002 (1st Round)

RHRP Jonathan Broxton (26) Drafted in 2002 (2nd Round)

LHSP James McDonald (25) Drafted in 2002 (11th Round)

C Russell Martin (27) Drafted in 2002 (17th Round)

IF Tony Abreu (25) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ramon Troncoso (27) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ronaldo Belisario (27) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

LHRP Hong-Chih Kuo (28) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

I think it's safe to say the Dodgers would not have gone to the NLCS the last two years without this collection of talent. Nobody on this list is older than 28, and yet there are four All-Stars, two Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers. They make up a significant portion of the everyday lineup (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), provide arguably the Ace of the pitching staff (Billingsley), and almost the entirety of the bullpen, which was, in '09, the best in baseball.

So, the McCourts and Ned Colletti deserve some commendations right? Well, yes, they did have a significant hand in developing these players, but all of them were acquired prior to the McCourts purchasing the Dodgers, by the man they fired as GM, Dan Evans. Evans, who now heads up West Coast Sports Management, deserves a great deal of the credit for the Dodgers recent success and may be one of the more underrated general managers of the Moneyball era. In addition to the guys on this list, he was also responsible for drafting Edwin Jackson (who Colletti later traded to Tampa Bay for Lance Carter and Danys Baez) and for engineering several trades which gave the Dodgers a great deal on long-term financial flexibility (sending away Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion, Devon White, etc.). Obviously, trading away veterans (or letting them walk, as he did with Chan Ho Park) didn't make Evans particularly popular with the Dodgers fan base, but it is hard to cite a case (except maybe Sheffield's) where he unloaded somebody who proved toe be worth what they were being paid over the next several seasons. And in the process, Evan stocked the farm system to the incredible degree which is paying dividends for his successors.

Then again, Evans also signed Darren Dreifort to five years and $55 Million.

Free Agents:

C Brad Ausmus (40)

2B Ron Belliard (34)

IF Juan Castro (37)

RHSP Jon Garland (30)

2B Orlando Hudson (32)

IF Mark Loretta (38)

RHRP Guillermo Mota (36)

LHRP Will Ohman (32)

RHSP Vicente Padilla (32)

RHSP Jason Schmidt (36)

DH Jim Thome (39)

RHSP Jeff Weaver (33)

LHSP Randy Wolf (33) [Signed w/ Brewers]

Arbitration Eligible:

Chad Billingsley (25) RHSP

Jonathan Broxton (26) RHCL

Andre Ethier (28) RF

Matt Kemp (25) CF

Hong-Chih Kuo (28) LHRP

James Loney (26) 1B

Russell Martin (27) C

Jason Repko (29) OF

George Sherrill (33) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

IF Ivan DeJesus Jr. (23)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (26)

RHRP Josh Lindblom (23)

RHRP Jon Link (26)

RHSP Ethan Martin (21)

C Lucas May (25)

OF Xavier Paul (25)

Although the Dodgers have a great core of players in place, one can see by the length of their free agency list that this isn't the best offseason to be standing pat. However, they may have no other choice. If that's the case, the continued success of the team will be dependent on the advancement of the prospects drafted by DePodesta and Colletti. So far, only Clayton Kershaw and Blake DeWitt have made any impression at the major-league level.

The primary source of anxiety for Dodgers fans is the rotation. Although the pitching staff was among the best in the league for the bulk of 2009, the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw faded down the stretch and especially in the postseason. The most durable and consistent pitcher from the '09 rotation, Randy Wolf, is gone, having signed with Milwaukee, so the Dodgers need a fully healthy Hiroki Kuroda and more consistency from the young guns. At the back end, Joe Torre may be holding open auditions. Scott Elbert, James McDonald, and the knuckleballer, Charlie Haeger, were all starters throughout their minor-league careers, but adapted well to bullpen roles in '09. All are still in their mid-twenties, capable of making big strides. They will probably get long looks as starters during Spring Training. As will Ethan Martin. The 15th pick in the '08 draft hasn't pitched above A ball, but the Georgia alum should move relatively rapidly through the system, both due to maturity and the franchise's desperation.

The starting lineup is set at every position but second base, as both Orlando Hudson and Ron Belliard became free agents. Joe Torre seems comfortable handing a starting job to Blake DeWitt, a converted third baseman, who served the franchise well as a utility man in '08 and '09. If that experiment goes poorly, the Dodgers will turn to middle-infield prospects like Chin-Lung Hu and Ivan DeJesus Jr.

The Dodgers success in '09 depends most upon Billinsley and Kershaw, but they also need bounceback efforts from Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin. Manny's lack of production might be explained by his suspension, as he still managed an admirable 949 OPS for the season, but the Dodgers will no doubt be concerned by the fact that his OPS numbers declined in every month, from 1154 in April to 792 in the postseason. Russell Martin's precipitous decline is utterly without explanation. After being one of the best catchers in baseball from '06 to '08, Martin went into the tank in '09, managing only a 680 OPS, over a hundred points below his previous career low. Perhaps he was hiding an injury. Perhaps it was just a fluke. Whatever the reason, the Dodgers desperately need the All-Star to be back behind the plate in 2010.

Joe Torre has defied all his doubters since coming to L.A., taking the team to the brink of the World Series in each of his first two seasons. 2010 may be his greatest challenge yet.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

SS Rafael Furcal (S)

CF Matt Kemp (R)

LF Manny Ramirez (R)

RF Andre Ethier (L)

1B James Loney (L)

3B Casey Blake (R)

C Russell Martin (R)

2B Blake DeWitt (L)

SP Clayton Kershaw (L)

SP Chad Billingsley (R)

SP Hiroki Kuroda (R)

SP James McDonald (R)

SP Charlie Haeger (R)

CL Jonathan Broxton (R)

SU George Sherrill (L)

SU Ronaldo Belisario (R)

MR Ramon Troncoso (R)

MR Hong-Chih Kuo (L)

LOOGY Scott Elbert (L)

MOP Cory Wade (R)

C A. J. Ellis (R)

IF Jamey Carroll (R)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (R)

OF Xavier Paul (L)

OF Jason Repko (R)