Wandy Rodriguez Is This Year's Cliff Lee?!?

This found its way into by inbox yesterday:

"Last year Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt helped to carry teams into the postseason after being traded at midseason.  Which potential aces could be on the market at this year's deadline?" - Jerry

Thanks, Jerry.  It's an interesting question.

Yes, last year Roy Oswalt was traded from Houston to Philadelphia and his dominance during a stretch of a dozen starts (7-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was a significant factor in the Phillies late-season push.

Ruben Amaro made a very similar move for Cliff Lee in 2009 and Lee famously went 11-4 for his new franchise, including four wins in the postseason.  Last year, however, Lee's story was slightly different.  He actually struggled (by his standards) in his fifteen regular season starts for the Rangers (4-6, 3.98 ERA), but did manage to make Jon Daniels look pretty good in October.

In 2008, it was C. C. Sabathia who was the mercenary former Indian.  He absolutely carried his new team, the Brewers, into the playoffs with a 17 start run in which he was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7(!) complete games.

In the very same year, Rich Harden moved from Oakland to Chicago and went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts, helping to guide the Cubs to their best season since the Roosevelt administration.

The upshot of all this is that, like Jerry, we've come to treat the trading of a "mercenary Ace" as a necessary part of the baseball narrative, when, in fact, history shows that the examples cited above are very much outliers.  Could it be that this is a new trend in the 21st-century game that will continue indefinitely?  Perhaps.  But it's also very possible that we see little or no movement of premier starters at the 2011 deadline.

One thing that leads me to this conclusion is that the class of free agent starting pitchers next offseason doesn't feature a marquis name like Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia.  Mark Buehrle is probably the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent to 2012.

Buehrle is certainly capable of having an Oswalt-esque stretch of dominance.  However, the other factor that makes this question hard to answer is that the availability of a Buehrle or a Chris Carpenter is largely dependent on whether their current franchises are still in the playoff mix.  Kenny Williams has certainly managed his offseason like a man who expects to be playing for the AL Central crown in August and September.  If that's the case, the face of the franchise, Mark Buehrle, ain't goin' nowhere.

If there's going to be a "mercenary Ace" in 2011, Carpenter is probably the odds-on favorite.  Carp's current contract features a $15 Million option for 2012.  As good as Carpenter is when he's on the mound, that's a big number for what will be a 37-year-old pitcher with a long injury history.  St. Louis, as you may have heard, has some other very expensive priorities, so it may be sensible for John Mozeliak to leave the tough decision about Carpenter's option to somebody else.

On the other hand, Carpenter is very, very popular in St. Louis.  He's owes a great deal to Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa.  And he has "no-trade" protection.  If he believes St. Louis has a chance of getting themselves back in the playoff picture in the next couple years, he may simple decline to move.

It's not always impending free agents who are involved in these deals.  Lee (in '09) and Oswalt both had additional years when they were traded.  There are certainly scenarios in which one could see Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, or Tim Hudson being shopped, but all of their teams are entering the season with sincere playoff aspirations.  Even if they were to go on the market, each would command a relatively massive package in return and could end up, like Roy Halladay in 2009, being beyond the reach of interested clubs.

The other possibility is that their is a "once and future Ace" who is on the verge of having a Renaissance season.  Candidates for that mantle would include Jake Peavy, James Shields, and Scott Kazmir.  If they were to return to their former levels of production AND their current franchise fell out of the playoff picture by midseason, you could definitely see them being traded at a price which wasn't wholly insurmountable.

Finally, this gives me opportunity to tout one of the favorite sleeper candidates for 2011.  Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros will be a free agent in 2012.  Certainly, at this moment, nobody thinks of him as analogous to Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia, but just two years ago Wandy put up Ace numbers (14-12, 3.02 ERA, 206 IP, 193 K).  His overall performance in 2010 was disappointing (11-12, 3.60 ERA), but don't make the mistake of overlooking his second half.  From June 24th on, a stretch of 18 starts, Way-Rod went 8-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 126 K in 120 IP.  One can imagine how much more press he would've gotten had he been pitching like that for a contender.  The Astros are in rebuilding mode, and at 32, Wandy isn't exactly the kind of guy you build around.  He'll be in motion by the deadline and if he begins 2011 in the fashion he ended 2012, there could be a bidding war.

BBA Ballot: Walter Johnson Award

It was "The Year of the Pitcher" after all, so it should come as no surprise that this was easily the most difficult ballot to construct.  Not so much at the top, since each league featured a pitcher who was at least a notch or two above the rest of the competition, but the rest of the ballot was a real struggle.  In both leagues, there were at least a dozen players who I thought well worthy of consideration, but eventually, this is what I came up with.

American League:

Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)

5. Jered Weaver (Angels)

For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar.  He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate.  He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop.  Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."

4. David Price (Rays)

By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot.  And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified.  The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one.  What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9).  Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).

3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)

Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers.  Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates.  However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1).  He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws.  At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.

2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)

This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run.  Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay.  I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record.  For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering).  Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay.  Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."

1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)

You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August.  Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award.  But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game.  He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver.  It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.

National League:

Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)

5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)

Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)

We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide.  However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August.  That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1).  Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.

3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)

This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot.  The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP

Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there."  I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)

Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc.  If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently.  For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them.  No easy feat.

Hey, New York, Who's Your Daddy?

As I sat, familiarly flabbergasted, amidst a bar full of equally frustrated strangers, and watched the Yankees deliver a barrage of singles, piling up runs at a tortuously slow pace, as Ron Washington tried pitcher after pitcher in an effort to tourniquet the ridiculous trickle of scoring, I recognized that, despite the fact that C. J. Wilson had absolutely stymied the most infamous lineup in baseball for seven innings and the Rangers had chased New York's only dominant pitcher in four innings, the series might well be over by the end of Game One.  Even if you attempt to adhere to that Curt Schilling credo, that Mystique and Aura are just dancers at a nightclub, you cannot deny that the Yankees have a habit of getting in their opponents heads.  For ages, of course, it was that way with the Red Sox (if you haven't already, hurry over to iTunes and watch ESPN's Four Days In October documentary).  More recently, it's been that way with the Twins.  And, now, I feared, they had the Rangers on their heels, ever waiting for New York to again assert their superiority by doing something truly improbable (like scoring five runs in an inning, off one of the best bullpens in baseball, without hitting an homer, indeed, with the help of only one extra-base hit).  If the Yankees had successfully quelled the Rangers aggressive, can-do spirit, this series would be over in five.

But that didn't happen.

Instead, Texas walked away from the game with the kind of impression which would make any sabermetrician proud: "They got lucky."  In baseball, no matter how good you are, the stringing together of seven consecutive baserunners is, to a significant degree, a matter of luck.  Brett Gardner reached on a grounder which would be an out, even with his speed, at least 80% of the time.  Jeter and A-Rod both hit the ball hard, but again, on the ground, and found that narrow, dangerous gap just inside the third base line.  Thames hit was a broken-bat dying quail.  If that bat stays whole, it's probably a line drive right at the left-fielder.  Certainly, there's nothing wrong with these kinds of hits and the Yankees made their luck possible by working counts and, in most cases, making fairly solid contact, but even they would tell you, they got some fortuitous breaks.  That night, when their inclination must've been to throw in the towel and, in the words of Pedro Martinez, call the Yankees their Daddy, Ron Washington and the Rangers instead observed that if they played hundred more games in which they entered the eighth with a five run lead, they'd probably win 95 of them.

On the bright side, they had hammered the Yankees only top-flight starting pitcher, C. C. Sabathia, and the Yankees had struggled against their second-best southpaw, C. J. Wilson.  When Colby Lewis went to work on the Yankees the next afternoon and his teammates again battered the New York starter, this time Phil Hughes, you could see several Rangers (most noticeably, Elvis Andrus) smirking in the seventh and eighth innings, as if to say, "If you're so good, why don't do it again?"  Facing several of the same pitchers they had chased less than 24 hours earlier, New York managed just one hit off the Rangers bullpen Sunday.  On Monday night, they got another taste of Rangers best southpaw, Cliff Lee, who, in the last two postseasons, has thusfar struck out 26 Yankees while allowing only 19 baserunners, making it clear that the only solution New York has for former Cleveland Indians lefties is to pay them $150 Million.

Certainly, the ALCS is far from over, but thankfully, the Rangers were immune to the massive momentum shift that could've followed their heartbreaking loss in Game One.  At this point, based on the pitching performances of the first three games and the fact that, setting aside that incredible eighth, the Yankees have scored only three runs to the Rangers twenty, one cannot see how the Yankees are favored in any of the next four games.  Tommy Hunter v. A. J. Burnett has the potential to be the first slugfest of the 2010 playoffs, which could go either way.  Sabathia will likely bounce back in Game Five, on normal rest, but there's no reason to believe New York's lineup will have any better answer for C. J. Wilson.  Same can be said for Colby Lewis in Game Six.  Most importantly, perhaps, Texas needs only one of the next three to assure that Cliff Lee gets back to the mound for Game Seven.

If anybody has gotten inside anybody else's head this postseason, it's Cliff Lee.  In fact, he's been inside the Yankees heads since last October.  In the clubhouse and on New York talk radio, Cliff Lee is discussed in hushed tones, like a marauding gunslinger.  That's why Brian Cashman pursued him with such fervor at the trade deadline, as much to keep him off another playoff team as to put him on theirs.  As he hung golden sombreros on Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames Monday night (and added a pair apiece for Posada, Granderson, and Teixeira), you could see by their expressions that this was a recurring nightmare come true.

If the ALCS goes to Game Seven, Rangers fans have every right to chant "Who's Your Daddy?" throughout the top half of every inning.  

A-Roid Bankrupted The Rangers, Now Is The Time For Vengeance (ALCS Preview)

Expanding upon the superlative "Narrative Likability" grade I gave the Rangers prior to the ALDS, let's look at three reasons why the Rangers deserve to beat the Yankees:

3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+."  He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays.  The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.

2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers.  New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams.  In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season.  The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million.  A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.

1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year.  That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004!  You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar.  We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.

Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:

3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason.  In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team.  They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average.  The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR).  I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS.  The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average.  In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks.  If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.

2.)  In the post-PED era, speed kills.  In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season.  The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%).  You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.

1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts.  For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games.  If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape.  Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA.  And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff.  C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia.  Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:

Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP

Was Sabathia really a better pitcher?  If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series.  So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.

Don't Anoint The "King" Too Quickly (A Derailed Postulate)

The SABR community gained a new posterboy for their assault on conventional stats this season in the form of Felix Hernandez.  Rob Neyer, Jason Rosenberg, and Jack Moore all took up the argument this week, following a start in which Hernandez threw eight shutout innings, but took another no-decision.  They argue that Hernandez is, literally, "King of the AL."  He leads the AL in innings, strikeouts, and QS%.  He's second in ERA and third in WHIP.  He's also third in Defensive Independent ERA, a new hot-button stat.  But somehow, despite indisputably being one of the top pitchers in the league, he's managed only 11 wins.

The reason for this is simple enough.  The Mariners are the lowest-scoring team in baseball, by a long shot (they've scored 32 fewer runs than the Pirates, 76 fewer runs than the next lowest AL franchise, the Orioles).  So, even though in 90% of his 30 starts Felix has allowed three or fewer runs and gone six or more innings, he's got ten losses and nine no-decisions.

Several pitchers have suffered from their lineup's futility in recent years.  Matt Cain and Zack Greinke come quickly to mind.  But if Hernandez concludes the season with more than 250 innings and an ERA under 2.50 (he's currently on pace to achieve both marks with ease), yet somehow finishes with fewer than 15 wins, it will be only the fifth time that has happened since integration in 1947 and the first time since 1993, when Jose Rijo went 14-9 with a 2.48 ERA and 257 IP for the Reds.  If Felix's ERA stays below 2.40, he will join Dave Roberts of the 1971 Padres in infamy.  Roberts posted a 2.10 ERA and 170 IP, but somehow managed a record of just 14-17.

Clearly what is happening to Hernandez is deeply unjust and he should obviously be considered among the premier pitchers in the AL, regardless of his record.  However, the tendency has been, in these diatribes on Felix's behalf, to diminish the statistics of C. C. Sabathia, the current MLB leader in wins, in an effort to elevate King Felix.  Here are their respective lines for 2010:

Felix Hernandez (Seattle): 11-10, 2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 209 K, 60 BB, 219 IP, 3.25 xFIP, 5.9 WAR
C. C. Sabathia (New York): 19-5, 3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 165 K, 65 BB, 203 IP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.9 WAR

As you can see, in every major statistical metric, excepting record, Hernandez is better than Sabathia, sometime by a long-shot.

What's absolutely certain is that their situations couldn't be more different.  Sabathia's team has the best record in baseball.  Hernandez's has the second-worst.  The Yankees have scored the most runs.  The Mariners have scored the least.  However, not everything works in Sabathia's favor.

Let's start with defense.  Both Hernandez and Sabathia rank in the top ten in the AL in inducing groundballs.  Felix at 52.9% and C. C. at 51.0%.  Yet, here's how their respective infielders rate in terms of getting to those grounders and converting them into outs (rankings based on players with 800+ innings):

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Yankees Eat It!

Wishful thinking, right?  The Yankees, of course, when they're clicking, are the best team in the game, as they proved by posting the best record in baseball during the 2009 regular season, then winning the World Series.  The thing about the '09 Yanks though...they were really, really lucky.  I know, I know, there's no such thing as a "lucky" two-hundred-million-dollar team.  The Steinbrenners paid handsomely for every one of those 114 wins and every one of those pretty rings which now adorn the private showrooms of their exclusive cast of aspiring billionaires.  Fair enough.

What I'd like to point out, however, is that of none of the Yankees starting nine in '09 missed a significant stretch of time.  Sure, A-Rod had the whole flexible hip thing (remember that?) which cost him April, but he still got 535 plate appearances and his annual 30 HR and 100 RBI.  Jorge Posada missed a couple weeks midsummer, but he still got into more than twice as many games as he did in 2008.  And the remainder of the starting seven all played at least 142 games.  Even more importantly, four Yankee pitchers made 30+ starts.  So, I'd like you to guess, how many franchises had eight players get 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers make 30+ starts in '09?

That's right, one and only one: the New York Yankees.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, got basically nothing from Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz, both of whom were supposed to be big contributors to their rotation, and Tim Wakefield missed most of the second half.  The lost their starting shortstop, Jed Lowrie, for basically the whole season and got a significantly reduced effort from their starting third-baseman, Mike Lowell, whose hip injury limited him to a hobbled 434 at-bats.  J.D. Drew, predictably, and Kevin Youkilis, unpredictably, also missed a few weeks apiece.  And the Red Sox still managed to win 95 games.

So, imagine for a moment that New York had some similarly bad luck.  Say, they lost A. J. Burnett for the season and Joba Chamberlain for half the season, as well as Melky Cabrera, and A-Rod didn't make it back until June, and even at that point, he was only half-strength.  Would they have managed 95 wins?  90?

Are you willing to bet that they can repeat their clean bill of health?

How much rest does a 37-year-old need?

This World Series has become, among other things, Exhibit A in the argument about pitcher's rest. There are several vocal proponents (most notably, Nolan Ryan) of the four-man rotation, a conception founded on the assumption pitchers only need three days between starts. While that is certainly the case for some pitchers (C. C. Sabathia for one, probably Ryan himself), A. J. Burnett reminded us last night that it isn't universal.

This November Charlie Manuel and Joe Girardi have elected to take opposite paths with their rotations. Manuel went with a conventional four-man rotation, meaning that his obvious Ace, Cliff Lee, will get the ball only twice (both of the game the Phillies have won) and the pivotal Game 7, if it comes to that, will fall into the hands of either Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, or J. A. Happ, none of whom inspired a great deal of confidence in October. Girardi, on the other hand, asks his three horses - Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettitte - to each go on short rest for their final start of the long season, with Sabathia slated to do it twice in a row, assuming we see a Game 7.

The Yankees are certainly still in the driver's seat with a three games to two advantage, but there was a significant momentum swing in yesterday's game when Burnett couldn't get through three innings in his second start, while a fully-rested Lee worked his way into the eighth. Now Yankee fans are faced with the recognition that Andy Pettitte didn't exactly dominate on full rest in Game 3, allowing two homers and four earned runs in six innings. And this time out, instead of getting a slumping, spiteful Cole Hamels, they get a fully rested Pedro Martinez, who pitched well enough at Yankee Stadium in Game 2 to quiet the "Who's your daddy?" douchebags (at least as much as any douchebag can be quieted). Somewhat surprisingly, the two 37-year-old potential Hall of Famers, who spent much of their careers pitching for American League rivals, have never matched up against each other in a postseason start. They've matched up six times during the regular season, with each picking up a win on three occasions. This will be a hell of a tiebreaker.

Andy Pettitte, of course, has an excellent reputation as a playoff pitcher, but his legend is as much about quantity as quality (17-9, 3.88 ERA, 161 K, 243 IP). Pettitte has started four playoff games on three days rest. Two went very well (8+ IP, 0 ER), one went very badly (3 IP, 5 ER), and one was modest, but inconclusive (6 IP, 4 ER). In the regularly season, on three days rest, he is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA, significantly worse than his career averages. Perhaps most important, however, is that fact that he hasn't started a single game on three days rest since 2006 (with the Astros) and hasn't started a playoff game on three days rest since 2003. I think we would all concur that he's put a lot of mileage on his arm since then.

The same is true of Pedro, who, like Pettitte, is 37-years-old. But he has the benefit of his regular rest going into Game 6 and also hasn't put as much stress on his body over the course of 2009, since he didn't make his first start until August. His postseason record is about quality, not quantity (6-3, 3.22 ERA, 91 K, 92 IP). He has never gone less than six innings in a postseason start. Sure, he may still have some demons from Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, but he has never been the losing pitcher in the deciding game of a postseason series and the meltdown in the eighth inning of that game (which prompted the firing the Grady Little) overshadows the fact that Pedro owned the Yankees for the first seven innings.

Manuel's rotation would appear to have the advantage in Game 6, but one certainly has to give Sabathia the advantage in Game 7, right?

Yes, I do think that's right, but I am concerned about the build-up of innings C. C. is facing. Girardi did a great job of keeping The Big Sleep fresh in August and September, since the Yankees ran away with their division, but with a long postseason (in which he's pitched exceptionally well) he's now up to 267 innings on the season, a massive total no matter how durable the pitcher. When Sabathia melted down in the 2008 NLDS, it was after 253 innings (and four straight starts on three days rest). In the 2007 ALCS, his meltdown came after 248 innings. Anybody who has watched him over the years knows that when he doesn't have it, he profoundly doesn't have it (see 13.50 ERA in his first four starts of 2008 or 10.45 ERA in 2007 ALCS). I hate to root for an implosion from one of my very favorite pitchers, but if it gets to a Game 7 that's exactly what I'll be doing.

Bronx Tales

I'd like to admit from the very start that the Yankees are quite clearly the best team in baseball right now. They're playing confident, consistent baseball at home and on the road. They've got great depth in the lineup, decent depth on the pitching staff, and a solid defense (currently, they're 5th in the AL in fielding percentage). However, as is almost always the case when the Yankees are running hot, there are some audacious claims being made by the Yankee faithful which I'd like to address here.

1.) Derek Jeter is once again the best shortstop in the AL, both offensively and defensively.

There is no doubt that Jeter has made strides to improve his defense since declarations regarding his weakness in that facet of the game became something of a fad among sabermetricians. However, rumors of his resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. Jeter does have a positive Ultimate Zone Rating for the first time since the stat began being recorded in 2001 (quite possible for the first time in his career). However, he is still dead last among AL shortstop in range. His improvement is also assisted by the fact that his double-play partner, Robinson Cano, is also having a career year defensively. Jeter is still clearly inferior to Elvis Andrus and Marco Scutaro, and while his numbers are comparable, I would be reluctant to choose him over younger, quicker, better armed guys like Alexei Ramirez and Erick Aybar.

At the plate, Jeter is on pace for 20 HR for the first time since 2004. He's got his best OPS since he challenged for the MVP in 2006 and he's already got 20 SB, also his most since 2006. Again, notions of his resurgence should be tempered. Like most Yankees, he has been assisted dramatically by the friendly confines of their new ballpark. Jeter's OPS on the road (797) is only 20 points higher than his OPS for 2008. Only 3 of his 14 HR and 18 of his 50 RBI have come away from Yankee Stadium. Jeter remains, as he has been for the last couple years, an excellent contact hitter (.318 at home and on the road) with decent plate discipline and above average baserunning ability. Partially because the AL does not boast anybody on par with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jimmy Rollins, Jeter is among the cream of the crop. However, Jeter fans should note that he trails Jason Bartlett of the Rays in almost ever offensive category (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, SB, SB%, 2B, 3B). His numbers are almost identical to Marco Scutaro's, who doesn't benefit from his home ballpark.

Jeter dedication to improving his defense may mean that he will be able to remain a reasonable starter at shortstop for a couple more seasons, which will save the Yankees from a tough decision, but Jeter is still clearly in the twilight of his career and no longer among the elite at his or really any position.

2.) Mark Texeira is obviously the AL MVP.

Tex is having a great season, especially considering how poor it started and the general pressure of joining the Yankees as a mega-free agent and "future of the franchise" type player. However, let's diffuse the hyperbolic nature of this claim quickly by comparing his numbers to fellow AL first-baseman, Justin Morneau.

Texeira: .288/.385/.565, 71 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, -0.4 UZR
Morneau: .300/.388/.562, 79 R, 28 HR, 94 RBI, -0.9 UZR

I think it's apparent from these lines that Texeira is not running away from the field, and that's not even considering the fact that Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera belong in the conversation as well. When one looks closer at the comparison with Morneau, Texeira picks up another disadvantage. While Morneau has very comparable numbers home and away (988 OPS/13 HR @ Home, 905 OPS/15 HR on Road), Texeira is an entirely different player away from the infamous right-field pavilion at Yankee Stadium (1031 OPS/19 HR @ Home, 867 OPS/11 HR on Road). There's nothing wrong with an 867 OPS. However, if you're going to win an MVP with that number, you better be a Gold Glove winning middle infielder (a.k.a. Pedroia in '08, Tejada in '02).

Tex is an impressive MVP candidate, but it isn't quite time to start clearing room on the shelf.

3.) The starting rotation is the best in baseball.

Yankees starters are 13th in ML in ERA, 12th in innings pitched, and tied for 7th in wins, so clearly this isn't the best rotation statistically. However, clearly what Yankees fans are excited about is the potential postseason rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and (occasionally) Chamberlain. Sabathia is very quietly turning in another excellent season. His ERA (3.64) is higher than it's been since 2005, but he's on pace for 18 wins and 186 K, which are damn fine numbers. He's also currently on pace for nearly 240 IP. He's gone seven innings or more in 16 of his 25 starts. That's great news during the regular season. However, Sabathia also threw 240+ innings in '07 and '08. His heavy load may be one explanation why his postseason ERA is 7.92. New York would be well served to rest their Ace as much as possible down the stretch, a luxury it looks like they will have, so that Sabathia can enter the playoffs refreshed.

It should also be noted that their #2, A. J. Burnett, has never thrown a postseason pitch, which makes him a bit of a wild card. The Yankees top three is solid, but it isn't noticably better than the trios in San Francisco, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.

New York, New York

Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com this morning feature a discussion of the early returns from Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. Granted, we shouldn't be quick to judge a park on two weeks in April, but 17 HR and 49 R in three games is enough to make even the most disciplined statistician whistle through his gap teeth. It's even more remarkable when you consider that one of those games started as a pitcher's duel between C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee that was locked in a 1-1 tie through six innings.

Sure part of the Indians 22-run explosion on Saturday can be attributed to the struggles of Chien-Ming Wang (6 IP, 34.50 ERA), who's looked like a batting practice pitcher in each of his last three starts. He got equally pummeled in Tampa Bay, which isn't exactly a hitter's haven, and Baltimore last week.

In the long run, if Yankee Stadium continues to play like Coor's Field (or worse!?!), it will have major fantasy repercussions. The stock of Yankee's hitters - already pretty high - goes up, while the stock of Yankee's pitchers goes down. Besides Wang, who shouldn't be starting in any leagues until he proves himself capable of getting past the second inning, I am particularly worried about A. J. Burnett. While Sabathia's flyball rate has been consistently declining in recent years, from 41.0% in 2004 to 31.7% last season, Burnett's is headed in the other direction, from an exceptional 22.3% in 2005 to 32.0% in '08, which may be why he averaged 21 HR allowed in his last two seasons with the Blue Jays. The good news for the Yankees is that both Sabathia and Burnett, as well as Joba Chamberlain, have exceptional strikeout rates, something which should be immune to park factors.

The immediate impact for fantasy owners is that you should consider benching mid-tier starters when they visit the Yankees, something you might have been tempted to do regardless. And while most of the Yankee regulars are already owned in most leagues, you may consider picking up a guy like Melky Cabrera, or trading for guys like Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and Derek Jeter, all of whom may be on the verge of an unexpected power spike. Also, visiting players could be good waiver wire acquisitions. For instance, Asdrubel Cabrera, probably unowned in most shallow leagues, went 5-for-8 in two games in New York this week, with a homer, four runs, and five RBI.

Across town, the early observers of Citi Field are predicting it to be considerably advantageous to pitchers. Things may change as the weather warms up, but that could be great news for Oliver Perez. Perez has surrendered 20+ HR in every season since 2003, which is part of the reason we remain skeptical about him in spite of his obvious talent. A subtle decrease in his homer rate could make a big difference in his ERA and win totals. To a lesser extent, the same may be said of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine.

While the dimensions of their ballpark will have little to no impact on the value of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, none of whom rely heavily on the homer, it may be the right time to unload Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church. They are both off to hot starts, but Citi may be particularly hard on left-handed power hitters both offer other risks as well. Delgado is, of course, aging, though showing no major indications of decline yet, at 37. Church is an injury risk and in danger of losing at-bats to Gary Sheffield, who is determined to make the Tigers pay for releasing him and is, more importantly, a right-handed power threat, something that the Mets are missing (outside of David Wright). Sheff will almost certainly start against lefties so long as he is healthy and effective, and if he proves he's still the same player he was two years ago, it is only a matter of time before he "demands" full-time player status. In deep leagues, I recommend picking him up RIGHT NOW.

As I said earlier, we should be cautious in making too much of a week's worth of games. However, fantasy leagues are won by being aware of factors that others may not pay attention to.

Quartet One

First of all, welcome a brand-new incarnation of the Hippeaux blog, updated to incorporate a wider variety of Americana. Baseball fans, however, can rest assured that my allegiance to that sport above all others remains undeterred. So, I will bare my 'seauxl' for the first time on the topic of the 2009 free agent class. Here are, in my opinion, the top twelve available players this offseason and a subjective view of which teams might make the best fit.

1. C. C. Sabathia - SP

Although he didn't win another Cy Young, Sabathia was even more dominant this time around then he was in Cleveland a year ago. He became to first pitcher to record 10 complete games and 5 shutouts since Randy Johnson did it ten years ago (interestingly, '98 was the season the Big Unit was traded from the AL to the NL midseason). At only 28, Sabathia has already played in eight full big-league seasons and has never pitched less than 180 innings or tallied less than eleven wins. While I would find it hard to argue that he is a more valuable pitcher than Johan Santana, I think it is now safe to say that they are the only two pitchers in the discussion. The extremes ends of the Sabathia contract have already been delineated. The Brewers offering 5 yrs./$100 Million and the Yankees countering with 6 yrs./$140 Million. However, if money were the only issue, I think it is safe to say we'd already have picture of the big guy holding up pinstripes. Sabathia has thrived the past two seasons as the recognized leader of young, successful teams. Besides the much-discussed factors of wanting to remain in the NL and wanting to be closer to his home on the west coast, I think C. C. is reluctant to play third or fourth or fifth or sixth fiddle to long-time Yankees like Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte. It is clear that he thrives as the workhorse and clubhouse chairperson of an underdog franchise. I'm not saying that Sabathia is a egomaniac who needs to be constantly in the limelight - if her were, obviously, New York would be the place for him - merely that he might prefer a franchise where he has more opportunity to lead.

With that in mind, recent rumors that the Giants are preparing an offer somewhere between what is on the table from Milwaukee and New York seem compelling. On the one hand, the Giants already possess a formidable rotation and would seem best served by committing their free agent dollars to the pursuit of more offense. But, you can never have too much quality starting pitching and Sabathia would be the likable, long-term replacement for Barry Bonds in a way which Barry Zito clearly failed to be and big-ticket bats like Manny Ramirez and Mark Texeira might have trouble duplicating. With Sabathia in the fold, the Giants would also have the option of trading Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for that middle of the order thunder. Or, they could try to be the San Diego Padres - a hyperbolic emphasis on pitching and defense at the expense of offense - a formula which had a considerable history of success prior to this season.

2. Manny Ramirez - LF/DH

There may be only one place in the country where it is safe to say that Manny won't end up. Obviously, low-budget bottom-feeders like Pittsburgh and Kansas City would be unwise to pursue one player at the expense of filling a multitude of holes, but I could see a wide variety of GMs convincing themselves and their ownership that Manny Ramirez represents the quickest avenue to contention. They need look no further than their recent memories. He carried the Dodgers to the NLCS by batting nearly .400 with a Bonds-like OPS (1232) during the last 2+ months of the regular season, then hit over .500 in October. Only a year prior to that he carried the Red Sox to the World Series by driving in 16 runs during the ALDS and ALCS. Postseason runs are scarce, yet during his 43 playoff games with the Red Sox, Manny accumulated 38 RBI. There is really no case against such a hitter. There are logical openings for him in Seattle, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Texas, Washington, and Baltimore, where he could provide a boost for the fan base and make playoff aspirations seem legitimate. In places like Detroit, Tampa Bay, and all teams in New York, Chicago, and L.A., Manny could be the piece that turns perennial contention into championship fulfillment.

I think it will be a team from the latter group which finally pulls the trigger, becomes willing to offer four years rather than three. And, although I will not rule out of possibility of seeing Manny heading home to NYC, the best fit seem to be the Dodgers, where his eccentric personality was immediately embraced by the franchise and the community, and especially the young, talented players, many of whom probably owned a Ramirez jersey in high school. The front office will defer to Torre, who has plenty of experience dealing with prima donnas.

3. Mark Texeira - 1B

The last two seasons, Texeira has been like a freelance bodyguard. While he put up great numbers of his own after joining Atlanta in '07 and the Angels this season, he was brought on to provide protection for a superstar, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, respectively. I expect this pattern to continue. The Angels, obviously, would like to retain his services, as Torii Hunter is the closest thing they have to a cleanup hitter. Boston would like to fill that gaping hole behind Big Papi, because, although Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, and Drew are all great hitters, none of them profiles with Texeira's (or Ramirez') power. The Yankees will be parting ways with Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, while the health of Posada and Matsui remains in question, so they appear to have gaping holes on either side of A-Rod in the lineup. I expect this to devolve into a New York vs. Boston bidding war, such that Texeira may get the biggest payday this offseason even though he might not be the most valuable player. If Boston wins, New York will redouble their pursuit of Ramirez or, perhaps, try to sign Adam Dunn to play first base. If New York wins, I expect Theo Epstein to look for creative trade possibilities. With Jon Lest, Dice-K, and Beckett ingrained in the rotation, he may be willing to move Clay Buchholz and/or Justin Masterson.

4. Rafael Furcal - SS

Others may disagree, but it is my contention that an excellent defensive shortstop, who can hit near .300 batting leadoff, steal bases, and walk as often as he strikes out is more valuable than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher like A. J. Burnett or Derek Lowe. I need look no further than Billy Beane's aggressive pursuit of Furcal to know there's some truth to this. Beane is not known for his interest in expensive free agents.

Sure, we can't expect Furcal to hit like he did in April and May (before he got injured) over the course of a full season, but even while shaking off the rust during the playoffs he looked like a solid igniter. Oakland won't be the only team interested and as the price goes up, I expect Beane's eagerness to subside. Joe Torre repeatedly applauded Furcal, even while he was going through his prolonged rehabilitation, so I think it's reasonable to think he might resign with L.A.

See C.C.'s Crew

As a Cubs fan, I must say this through clenched teeth, but the Brewers may be the most soulful team in baseball, and their great team chemistry, bolstered by the additions of C. C. Sabathia and Ray Durham, combined with enormous talent, has made them into the most dangerous team in the National League the second half of the season.  Since acquiring the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner, the Brew Crew has gone 9-4 (and they're leading the Cardinals in the third game of a four-game set as I write this).  Sabathia has been no mere confidence booster.  He is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 24 K in 24 innings coming into tonight, and has yet to allow a hit in five innings this evening.  However, his "confidence-boosting" may be even more critical.  Since he arrived in Milwaukee on July 6th, these are the numbers for some of the critical Brewers, not all of whom were running hot throughout the second half.  

Bill Hall (3B): .361, 9 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 1117 OPS

Ryan Braun (LF): .339, 9 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1087 OPS

Prince Fielder (1B): .327, 6 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1054 OPS

J. J. Hardy (SS): .321, 11 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 956 OPS  

Rickie Weeks (2B): .295, 14 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, 881 OPS

I would like to draw special attention to Bill Hall, who lost his starting role to Russell Branyan in June, but is now back to playing every day and hit game-winning homers in each of the first two days of the critical Cardinals series, putting the Brewers alone in second place in the NL Central.  Hall, apparently a close friend of Sabathia, is looking like this year's version of Jacque Jones (whose huge second-half improvement bolstered the Cubs into last year's playoffs).  

This is also a good time to salute Doug Melvin, Ned Yost, and the Milwaukee Brewers organization, who now have six African-American players on their active roster.  Sadly, that's the most of any team in baseball.  Undoubtedly you will be reading in the coming months that the Brewers rely on "natural athletes," get by purely "on talent," won't be able to "handle the pressure," and are "disrespecting the game" by untucking their shirts when they shake hands after a win, the aphorisms which expose the not-so-subtle racism which is still very much a part of the baseball sportswriting and broadcasting establishment.  Don't be misled!  The Brewers "untucked" tradition is a testament to Mike Cameron's father, symbolic of a hard day's work and a job well done.  Cameron, Hall, and Ray Durham are grizzled veterans who have made long big league careers thanks in large part to their work ethic, diligence, studiousness, and willingness to do whatever necessary to help their team.  None of them was drafted higher than the 5th round.  Hall has play four different positions (2B, 3B, SS, CF) in the last three seasons, all of them demanding.  Cameron is a three-time gold-glover winner, esteemed around the league both for his personality and contributions on and off the field.  His Cam4Kids foundation, established in 2001 is dedicated to helping inner-city kids.  He is active is several other charity organizations as well.  Many though Durham's career was over after he hit .218 with the Giants in 2007, but he has brought is average back above .290 and his OBP above .380 in '08, right in line with his career numbers.  Despite spending his entire career as a starter, he immediately accepted his role as utility infielder and pinch hitter for the Brewers, embracing the opportunity to mentor Rickie Weeks and get long sought-after opportunity to go deep into the playoffs.  Since Durham arrived, Weeks is batting .400 with 6 runs, 2 extra-base hits, and 4 RBI, in four games.  

I've sung the praises of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun for almost two years now, so you already know I consider them the most talented duo in all of baseball.  But there are now many more reasons to Beware the Brewers!

So Far, So Good

In a somewhat unusual feat of good judgment, the sportswriters have made three excellent selections for the major 2007 awards thusfar. Only Dustin Pedroia was an easy choice, as AL Rookie of the Year. Pedroia led all qualifying AL Rookies in Average, Slugging, OPS, Doubles, and Runs Scored. He was second in Hits and OBP, and fifth in RBI. Pedroia's case is certainly somewhat aided by his postseason performance and his position in one of the league's best lineups, but there are glaring holes in the campaigns of all the other logical candidates. Delmon Young led AL Rookies in RBI with 93 and Josh Field led in Home Runs with 23, but both struggled with the strikezone, accumulating over 125 strikeouts apiece and OBPs under .320. That said, I bet Boston would trade Pedroia straight up for either one of them, in a heartbeat.

It seemed likely, when Colorado advanced to the postseason and then to the World Series, especially, that their lauded shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, was inevitably boosting his Rookie of the Year chances. Thankfully, Ryan Braun's gaudy regular season numbers were too much to overlook. Here's how the two broke down:

Tulowitski: .291/.359/.479 104R 177H 24HR 99RBI 7SB

Braun: .324/.370/.634 91R 146H 34HR 97RBI 15SB

Tulowitzki hangs with Braun in the counting stats because he had two more months in the majors. If we extrapolate Braun's stats to match Tulowitski's plate appearances, he would have approximately 120 R, 45 HR, 130 RBI, and 20 SB. In other words, he'd be running a step ahead of Holliday, Fielder, and Rollins in the MVP race.

While I'm sympathetic to the opinion that Tulowitski's excellent defense at a critical position (compared to Braun's sub-par defense at third base) helps his cause, I think Braun's counterargument is that he hit third in Milwaukee's lineup from the moment he reached the bigs. While Tulowitski's slumps were chastened by the fact that he hit in front or behind that quartet of Holliday, Helton, Atkins, and Hawpe, it was Braun who was the picture of consistency in Milwaukee. Along with Prince Fielder he compensated for the up-and-down performances of J. J. Hardy, Corey Hart, Bill Hall, and Rickie Weeks, by churning out an OPS above 900 in every full month after he arrived.

It was also a tough choice between C. C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett. Sabathia would surely be willing to trade his hardware for Beckett's World Series ring. Unfortunately, that is sort of what it came down to. Sabathia made four more starts and pitched forty more innings than Beckett during the regular season, perhaps his fatigue contributed to his lackluster playoff performances against Boston. However, he carried his team down the stretch, going 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in August and September. Beckett didn't exactly coast, going 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA, but he did take one less turn in the final two months, pitch twelve fewer innings, and delivered 59 fewer pitches. He also was allotted five days rest before each of his last three regular season starts. Very likely two more quality starts could have made the difference for Beckett as a Cy Young candidate, but it also may have prevented him from racking up four wins and 35 Ks in 30 innings in October.

Soulful Second Season

Hard to believe that the Cubs were the first National League team to secure a spot in the National League Division Series. Harder still to believe that neither San Diego nor New York will be there. I'm past predictions.

Prince Fielder has rocket-launched his final moonshot of 2007. Curtis Granderson has chased down his final scorching line drive. Russell Martin is finally, hopefully, going to give his weary knees a rest. Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and Barry Bonds are all headed home. Don't fret, this is an opportunity. Get to know best of the rest. Here's your guide to the most soulful players still in contention.

Mike Lowell - 3B - Boston Red Sox

Two years ago, after a season which has proved to be an utter aberration, the Marlins made Mike Lowell a throw-in, alongside Josh Beckett, in the trade that brought them Hanley Ramirez. One cannot fault them for this move, however, I doubt anybody in Florida (or Boston, for that matter) would have predicted that Lowell would finish any season with more RBIs (124) and a higher batting average (.324) than Miguel Cabrera. His RBIs set a Red Sox record. He made Manny Ramirez' late-season DL stint largely inconsequential.

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

He finished only three stolen bases short of becoming the first rookie to ever join the 30/30 club. Even if he had made it, he probably wouldn't have won the Rookie of the Year because of Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun. He had five multi-homer games. He is the best bet to have a Prince Fielder-like sophomore season. He might start as early as Wednesday. Every facet of his game improved as the season progressed.

Livan Hernandez - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

He's easily forgotten these days. Casual fans will be surprised to see him when he trots out to the mound in Game 3 of the NLDS between Chicago and Arizona. He's been "reduced" to nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter on what was supposed to be a middle-of-the-division team, a team that failed to score as many runs as their opponents, but somehow won more games than anybody in the National League. But he's a middle-of-the-rotation starter who's logged 200 innings in ten consecutive seasons, and 11 or more wins for eight in a row. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter who has a 4-0 record and a 1.99 ERA in the NLDS and NLCS, a NLCS MVP, and a World Series MVP. He was undefeated in the postseason (6-0) until the World Series in 2002. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a career 2.96 ERA in 9 starts at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Livan has quietly become one of the most reliable pitchers of his generation. He never tires, and somehow he always seems to be able to reach back for something extra when it matters most.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP - Boston Red Sox

Nobody east of McCovey Cove has had more attention directed his way during the 2007 season than Dice-K. In addition to the media frenzy, Dice-K was introduced to a different theory of pitching, a different size of ball, and, let us not forget, a different level of hitter in the world's best baseball division, the AL East. His performance was very uneven during his rookie year, but he did achieve 15 wins, 200 Ks, and 200 innings (only six other pitchers managed as much), marks that would have been more than sufficient for any other rookie. During one six-start stretch in June and July, Dice-K had a 1.29 ERA with 51 K in 42 IP. When Dice-K stays in the strikezone, away from the big inning, he can be as dominant as any pitcher in the postseason. One thing is for certain, he is just as exciting as advertised.

Alfonso Soriano - LF - Chicago Cubs

Fonzi began the season in much the same way as fellow Hundred Million Dollar Men, Barry Zito and Vernon Wells. Unlike BZ and VW, Soriano followed his .270/0 HR April by batting .303 with 33 HR the rest of the way, including a historic September which carried the Cubbies into the postseason. If his quad injury hadn't cost him his speed and much of August, Soriano would be on pace to match most of the gaudy numbers from 2006 that gained him his massive contract.

Chone Figgins - Anywhere & Everywhere - Los Angeles Angels

On the morning of May 31, Chone was batting .133. His manager had been forced to sit him for two important games against Seattle in favor of a power-hitting utilityman, Robb Quinlan, and promising rookie infielder, Erick Aybar. The Angels won both games. If Chone wanted to start on a contending team, he was going to have to step it up. He had three hits on May 31 and three more on June 1. From that point until September 22, a span of 83 games, he hit .405, scored 69 runs, and stole 37 bases. He also started at four different positions. Despite playing only 115 games, he finished with some of the best overall numbers of his career. His play-anywhere, do-anything, take-whatever-they'll-give-you-and-more style epitomizes Scioscia's Angels.

Kenny Lofton - LF - Cleveland Indians

The active triples and stolen base leader, K-Lo, has played for nine different teams in the past six years, a stretch which inspired a DHL commercial and makes Reggie Sanders' career seem like the picture of stability. Like Sanders, Lofton's transience is inexplicable. During those six seasons he's batted .293, averaged 80 runs and 24 stolen bases per year, and made four trips to the postseason, all while playing solid defense and being an unmistakably positive veteran presence in the clubhouse. Now, he's finally back where he belongs, in Cleveland, where he was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner between '93 and '99. No Indian will be more eager to break Cleveland's 59-year World Series drought. Lofton has 349 postseason at-bats. The rest of the Indians have combined for 61. Since acquiring Lofton, the Indians are 54-35. Kenny probably won't be making starts against tough lefties this October, but against righthanders this season Lofton is batting .313 with an 838 OPS, so you can bet he'll be the left-fielder against the likes of Clemens, Wang, and Mussina in the Division Series.

Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs

Like Alfonso, D-Lee got hot at the right time. He followed his first-half power outage (6 HR) by hitting as many homers (17 HR) after the All-Star Break as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, or Miguel Cabrera. He hit .365 in September, which bodes well for October. D-Lee is the face of the Cubs, the "new look" Cubs. Ironically, as a Marlin, he was a big part of destroying the Cubs chances the last time they made it this far, in 2003. Hopefully he can impart that never-say-die attitude upon his new teammates, many of whom have little or no postseason experience.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Cleveland Indians

Just don't miss his start on Thursday afternoon. Baseball's best pitcher facing baseball's best lineup in a playoff situation. This is when the soul rises.

Jimmy Rollins - SS - Philadelphia Phillies

On July 8th, at a time when neither team could really imagine themselves facing off in the postseason, the Phillies were playing the Rockies. In the third inning, with the Rockies leading 4-2, driving rain and gusty wind forced a delay. The Colorado grounds crew had trouble with the tarp, one member being tossed around and dragged by sudden bursts of powerful high-altitude winds. Jimmy Rollins led his entire team out onto the field and, rainsoaked, they helped the opposing grounds crew secure the tarp. At the end of the delay the Phillies mounted a comeback, led by Rollins going 3-for-3 with 2 RBI. Not enough can possible be said about Rollins' historic MVP season, in which, among other things, he will play upwards of 165 games at the sports' most demanding position. He has led the Phillies wire-to-wire and into the playoffs, just as he predicted. Don't expect this to be the last of his heroics.