Fantastic Thoughts: "O-Dog would probably sign with your fantasy team, if you're willing to give him a three-year contract." (Second Base Preview)

I've been bemoaning it for months, but I'll be damned if it doesn't continue to infuriate me that Orlando Hudson doesn't have a job, in February, for the second year in a row.  He is, nonetheless, included on my list, along with fellow unsigned free agent, Felipe Lopez.

1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)

Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?"  The pickings were slim.  But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.

Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him.  He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI.  Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.

5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]

There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level.  What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency.  Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders."  Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.

Cano offers a slightly different quandary.  He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust.  I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ.  Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters.  Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities.  Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half.  In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.

8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)

These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others.  Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high.  I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010.  However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.

The other three are inversions of Roberts.  Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do.  Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running.  Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here.  He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis).  The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.

12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]

This tier is all about "upside."  Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential.  One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury.  In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years.  Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay.  Be cautious though.  It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.

McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell.  As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base.  I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it.  McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish.  He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors.  Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again.  The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash.  By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.

17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)

A couple of oldies, but goodies.  If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable.  Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh).  I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.

My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half.  Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).

Offseason Prospectus #17: The Colorado Rockies

In the fall of 2007, the Rockies used an eleven-game winning streak and an extraordinary extra-innings win against San Diego in game 163 to surge into the postseason and eventually to the World Series. They had five players with 90 or more RBI - Matt Holliday (137), Brad Hawpe (116), Garrett Atkins (111), Troy Tulowitzki (99), and Todd Helton (91) - and looked like a team built to win for several years to come.

Unfortunately for Colorado, like so many teams who make unexpected journeys deep into October, they had trouble duplicating that success, managing only 74 wins in '08 and beginning '09 by going 18-28, a performance bad enough to lead to the firing of long-time skipper, Clint Hurdle.

To everybody's surprise, soon after Hurdle was dismissed, the Rockies regained their swagger under Jim Tracy and '09 turned out to be the best regular season in the team's history (92 W, .568). They got manhandled by the Phillies in the NLDS, but there is once again optimism among the Coors Field faithful, as the team proved it could win without Matt Holliday.

In recent years, Colorado's front office, led by Dan O'Dowd, has made a consistent commitment to drafting, developing, and retaining their own players, and keeping themselves away from big free agents who haven't proven themselves in the distinctive environs of Colorado, like the ones that hamstrung the team earlier in the decade (Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, most famously). Of the dozen men who got 100 or more at-bats for the Rockies in 2009, only Carlos Gonzalez and Yorvit Torrealba have ever played for another organization (in Gonzalez's case, that tenure was very brief). The starting rotation is also led by two pitchers who are career Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook.

So far this offseason, O'Dowd has stuck to his guns. The Rockies offered arbitration to set-up man, Rafael Betancourt, but have otherwise been silent. In the early months of 2010, O'Dowd may look for a part-time catcher and minor bullpen or bench reinforcements, but the Rockies remain convinced that they already have the major pieces necessary to get them back to the promise land. And, with nobody in their division getting noticeably better so far this winter, they can make a pretty convincing case for being the preseason favorite in the NL West.

Free Agents:

Garrett Atkins (30) 3B/1B [Signed w/ Orioles]

Joe Beimel (33) LHRP

Jose Contreras (38) RHRP

Adam Eaton (32) RHSP

Alan Embree (40) LHRP

Josh Fogg (33) RHRP

Jason Giambi (39) PH

Matt Herges (40) RHRP

Jason Marquis (31) RHSP [Signed w/ Nationals]

Matt Murton (28) OF

Joel Peralta (34) RHRP [Signed w/ Nationals]

Juan Rincon (31) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Clint Barmes (31) 2B

Taylor Buchholz (28) RHRP

Jorge De La Rosa (29) LHSP

Jason Hammel (27) RHSP

Chris Iannetta (27) C

Ryan Spilborghs (30) OF

Huston Street (26) RHCL

ETA 2010?:

Jhoulys Chacin (22) RHSP

Samuel Deduno (26) RHSP

Edgmer Escalona (23) RHRP

Shane Lindsay (24) RHRP

Michael McKenry (25) C

Chaz Roe (23) RHSP

Esmil Rogers (24) RHSP

Eric Young (25) 2B/CF

While I think O'Dowd is an exceptionally competent GM, I see one area in which his conservative strategy might prove dangerous. While none of the free agent arms Colorado is losing were among the best pitchers in their bullpen, Alan Embree, Josh Fogg, Joel Peralta, Juan Rincon, Jose Contreras, and Joe Beimel did combine for over 150 innings. Down the stretch Contreras was among the Rockies most dependable relievers.

Colorado does have a nice selection of quality arms coming up through the system, but they will need to depend heavily on Manny Corpas, Franklin Morales, Randy Flores, and Taylor Buchholz, all of whom struggled with either injuries or ineffectiveness in '09. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Dowd finds one more "insurance plan" among the remaining crop of free agents, perhaps an inexpensive veteran like Guillermo Mota or David Weathers, or an return engagement for Contreras or Fogg.

By not offering arbitration to Garrett Atkins, a player who was once at the center of Colorado's offensive plans, the Rockies have committed full force to Ian Stewart as their everyday third baseman. Stewart was very impressive against right-handed pitching in his first full season (20 HR, 823 OPS), but struggled mightily against southpaws (5 HR, 664 OPS). The Rockies may see this as an avenue to free up at-bats for Eric Young, who is currently without an everyday role. Or, they may still be in the market for a right-handed cornerman who can also pinch-hit, somebody like Mark Loretta or Nomar Garciaparra.

It's truly odd to say it, but going into 2010, one of Colorado's strengths is the depth of their rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't yet reached the notoriety of a Lincecum, a Greinke, or a King Felix, but he belongs among that class of pitchers, a truly dominant Ace still in his mid-twenties. Ubaldo went 15-12 in '09 with a 3.47 ERA and 198 K in 218 IP. Most importantly, he seems to have harnessed his incredibly nasty stuff, dropping his walk rate from 4.7 to 3.5 every nine innings.

Lining up behind Jimenez the Rockies have the reliable veteran, Aaron Cook, who over the last four seasons has averaged 29 starts, 11 wins, and a 4.11 ERA, and the 2009 breakout lefty, Jorge de la Rosa, who went 16-3 for Colorado from June 1st until the end of the season.

The Rockies are also anticipating the return of Jeff Francis, who was considered their ace before injuries cost him much of 2008 and all of 2009. If Francis shows anything resembling his former talent, the Rockies will possess a front four which is among the best in the National League.

The final spot will go to Jason Hammel, at least to begin the year. Hammel was very solid in '09 (10-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 177 IP), good enough to get first dibs, but he will be pressed to perform by the advancement of young guns like Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, and Chaz Roe, all of whom look ready for major-league action. O'Dowd may choose to convert one or more of them into relievers, at least temporarily, as he did with Franklin Morales.

The star of the show in Denver will always be the offense. Even as production has decreased in recent seasons, thanks to the humidifier, Coors Field still consistently ranks among the top three parks for run production. What O'Dowd has improved at over the last few years, however, is putting together lineups which are dangerous in any climate and every stadium. He's still got the hard-swinging flyball specialists like Stewart and Chris Iannetta, but they are combined with speedy slap-hitters like Dexter Fowler and Eric Young, all-fields RBI men like Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe, and, most importantly, five-tool talents like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Especially if Iannetta bounces back from a sub-par '09 campaign that saw him eventually lose the starting role to Torrealba, the Rockies will have a lineup that rivals the depth of those in Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Milwaukee (no lineup in the NL is as complete as Philadelphia's at the moment). And, like each of those teams, they won't be satisfied by anything less than October baseball. No reason why they should be.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Dexter Fowler (S)

LF Carlos Gonzalez (L)

1B Todd Helton (L)

SS Troy Tulowitzki (R)

RF Brad Hawpe (L)

3B Ian Stewart (L)

C Chris Iannetta (R)

2B Clint Barmes (R)

SP Ubaldo Jimenez (R)

SP Jorge de la Rosa (L)

SP Aaron Cook (R)

SP Jeff Francis (L)

SP Jason Hammel (R)

CL Huston Street (R)

SU Rafael Betancourt (R)

SU Taylor Buchholz (R)

MR Manny Corpas (R)

MR Franklin Morales (L)

LOOGY Randy Flores (L)

SWING Jhoulys Chacin (R)

C Michael McKenry (R)

IF Mark Loretta (R) FA

IF/OF Eric Young (S)

OF Seth Smith (L)

OF Ryan Spilborghs (R)