Not Quite "Done"

It happens almost every year: an American League team which seems left for dead in the season's opening months, surges forward during June to assert themselves, at least temporarily, among the contenders.  One reason for this phenomenon is that the month is laden with interleague play.  The AL has dominated interleague matchups for most of the last decade.  The interleague schedule is tremendously unbalanced, so solid AL franchises who get soft draws have an opportunity to gain ground on their less fortunate league rivals.

The result is that it is often difficult to judge whether an outstanding June is the result of a team truly coming together in a sustainable fashion, or merely taking advantage of the weak links on the senior circuit.  Last season, the Los Angeles Angels used June to assert their dominance.  Dogged by injuries and the tragic death of Nick Adenhart, the Angels struggled to achieve a .500 record during April and May, but a 17-9 month of June allowed them to surge to the front of the AL West, where they remained, finishing with 97 wins, second best in all of baseball, and eventually making it to the ALCS.  

On the other hand, in 2008, Detroit used a 19-8 run in June to get within striking distance of the AL Central-leading White Sox.  The remainder of the season was not nearly as kind, as the Tigers went 32-47 in the second half and finished in last place.

This season, no less than five AL franchises have caught fire in June.  Which of them will we still be talking about at the end of July?

Boston Red Sox (Sustainability Grade: A+)

Will we ever learn?  Every year one of the "Beasts of the East" has a rough time of it in the early going and we declare them finito.  And every year we are forced to bite our tongues.  This season, Boston was half a dozen games out a the end of April and many Red Sox fans were ready to throw in the towel.  Since that point, they've been the best team in the division and now find themselves comfortably positioned for an exciting pennant race: 2.5 back of the Yanks and only a half-game back of the Wild Card-leading Rays.  

There's no reason to doubt Boston.  Yes, they've gotten rich against the NL, going 10-4 in interleague play so far, but they've done it against the best the opposing league has to offer, playing six games against the Phillies, three against the Dodgers, and three against the Rockies.  They now possess the fourth-best record in all of baseball, despite the fact that they've gotten little contribution from Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, Mike Cameron, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, all of whom are expected to be available throughout the second half.  It's impossible to predict who from among the so-called "Beasts" will be left out of October, but the Red Sox are not going to make it easy on their rivals.  

Texas Rangers (Sustainability Factor: B+)

Texas has played fairly well throughout the season, so their situation is slightly different from other teams on this list, but they have gone absolutely bonkers this month, currently riding a ten-game winning streak.  They've also won thirteen of their last fourteen and have not lost a series this month. 

Their interleague schedule is one of the softest around.  Their streak has been compiled against the Brewers, Marlins, Astros, and Pirates, with three more home games against Houston still to come.  They didn't play a single NL team with a record above .500 and Florida is the only one who even comes close.

That said, Texas is clearly for real.  They have the third-best run differential in baseball, trailing only the Yankees and Rays.  They've won series against the Rays, Tigers, and Angels, and are currently sitting on a 13-5 record in their own division.

Los Angeles Angels (Sustainability Factor: B+)

The Angels were in last place early in May, but have made a familiar climb back into the divisional race, now standing just 3.5 games back of Texas.  The Angels did not benefit from the soft underbelly of the NL Central the way that their division rival did, as they played six against the Dodgers, three against the Cardinals, and have three to come against the Rockies, so their 9-5 interleague record is pretty impressive.

The Angels have once again dealt with some tough breaks.  Kendry Morales is out for the season.  Erick Aybar could also miss significant time.  However, there real problems are a disastrous bullpen and a stagnant offense, which has not been about to score at will the way it did in 2009.  There's a strong chance players like Hideki Matsui and Juan Rivera will be much more productive in the second half, which could be enough to keep the Angels in the race, but don't be surprised if they are one of the most active teams at the deadline.  They will have flexibility in a way the bankrupt Rangers don't.     

Chicago White Sox (Sustainability Grade: C+)

On the third of June, the ChiSox were eight games under .500 and 8.5 back in the Central.  Rumors swirled about possible trades and maybe a precipitous end to the Ozzie Guillen era.  Now, the White Sox are three games above .500 and only 2.5 back.  They've won nine in a row and fifteen out of their last nineteen, including eight of nine on the road.  

Although the White Sox did just complete a sweep of the first-place Braves, they really got rich this June off the Nationals, Pirates, and Cubs, compiling an insane 13-2 record in interleague play, with another series against the Cubs still to come.  So, it is understandably tempting to call "bullshit" on the White Sox recent hot streak.  They have won only one series all year against an AL contender (New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, and Los Angeles).  However, they will play 24 games against the Twins and Tigers in the second half, which should certainly be treated as "opportunity."  

Seattle Mariners (Sustainability Factor: D-)

The Mariners were a popular preseason choice to win the AL West.  They currently sit thirteen games back and, until recently, seemed on the verge of throwing in the towel.  A six-game winning streak could be enough to at least delay the Cliff Lee trade talks.  Seattle swept the Twins earlier this month and recently swept the Reds as well, both first-place teams.  In between, however, they lost series to St. Louis and San Diego.  

There are causes for optimism.  Chone Figgins has busted out of his season-long slump.  Ichiro has been dominant.  The rotation has been consistently fantastic.  However, their run differential this month is actually worst than it was in April and May, because basically everybody else stinks.  They have won only one series this season against a divisional opponent (Oakland), compiling a 3-16 record against the Rangers and Angels.  This team isn't going anywhere...not this year.

The Best in the West

At the beginning of the year, I had a very hard time deciding who to pick to win the AL West.  At this point, not quite six weeks in, not only am I happy with my choice, I'm wondering how I ever could've considered anybody else.  It's not that the Rangers have been dominant, so much as every other team in their division looks tremendously short-handed.

The preseason darling, the renovated Mariners, recently lost eight straight against the Rangers, Rays, and Angels.  Ken Griffey Jr. and Milton Bradley have been in the news frequently this season; unfortunately, not for anything they've done on the field.  The Mariners haven't gotten a smidgeon of offensive production from anybody except Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez.  And now, even King Felix is struggling.  The Mariners pitching depth makes is reasonable to imagine them putting together an extended hot streak and perhaps climbing back towards .500, but contention is seeming pretty far-fetched.

The Angels have the opposite problem.  They've scored a reasonable number of runs, but their pitching, with the exception of Jered Weaver, has been just dreadful.  The back four have gone 6-16, with only Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro even showing flashes of effectiveness.  As bad as the rotation has been, the bullpen is even worse.  Only one reliever, Fernando Rodney, has an ERA under 4.00, while four have ERAs over 7.00.  There are talented arms on the Anaheim staff, but it won't be long before the hole is too deep to dig out of, even if Mike Scioscia does make his annual adjustments.

And then there is Oakland: a team that was tied with the Rangers for first place until this evening.  It seems like Oakland is doing it with smoke and mirrors.  They have only one player with more than three homers, Kurt Suzuki.  He's their best hitter and he's on the D.L.  There best starting pitcher, Brett Anderson, is also disabled (although Dallas Braden has been doing a damn fine job in his stead).  They're 12th in the AL in OPS and 13th in SLG.  The Ben Sheets experiment has been disastrous.  Without several more infusions of talent (which isn't wholly impossible considering their farm system), I don't see the Athletics keeping pace beyond midseason.

Which leaves Texas.  They are leading the division and have the fourth best run differential in the A.L., despite the fact that Josh Hamilton started slow, Rich Harden started wild, and Ian Kinsler started hurt.  There two best relievers both had ERAs above 5.40 in April and their two highly-touted rookies were hitting below the Mendoza line.

Now, those problems seem to be solving themselves.  Neftali Feliz saved five games last week and has a 1.59 ERA so far in May.  Hamilton has homered in two straight games and his OPS is quietly climbing toward 900.  Harden has allowed only two runs and, more importantly, only two walks in his last two starts, his ERA dipping into a very respectable range (3.53).  Kinsler has been on fire since returning to the lineup, with five multi-hit games already in May.  Justin Smoak put together a seven-game hit streak to begin the month and, although he's still only hitting .194, he's shown some power (4 HR) and a great eye (12 BB/11 K), as advertised.  Julio Borbon has six hits in his last four games.

What's frightening about the Rangers is their depth.  There recent hot streak, 11-4 since April 27, has come without Nelson Cruz, who was far and away there best hitter in April.  He re-enters the lineup on Friday.  Matt Harrison hit the D.L. this week, so the Rangers recalled Derek Holland and got six shutout innings from him in his debut.  Feliz and Frank Francisco have been inconsistent, but Darren O'Day, Chris Ray, and Darren Oliver have provided 35 innings and have allowed just nine earned runs (2.29 ERA).

Despite the comings and goings, the Rangers have hardly showed all their cards, especially in terms of pitching.  Brandon McCarthy is dominating AAA (2.51 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 18 K/5 BB).  Tommy Hunter hasn't allowed a run in two starts for Oklahoma City since returning from the D.L.  Texas' first-round pick from 2010, Tanner Scheppers, has already reached AAA and 45 strikeouts in 34 professional innings.  And 19-year-old Martin Perez has a 2.45 ERA at AA.

The Rangers aren't without issues.  They've tried four different catchers this year who have combined to post a 506 OPS.  They've leaned heavily thusfar on the pitching of Colby Lewis and C. J. Wilson, both of whom are benefitting somewhat from the fact that this is practically their first time through the league. Wilson had previously worked only as a reliever and Lewis spent the last two seasons in Japan.  They will likely both be tested during the summer, as the Ballpark at Arlington becomes even more of a launching pad and the league adjusts to them.  Wilson has never thrown more than 136 innings at any level and hasn't thrown more than 75 innings since 2005, so his durability is definitely in question.

Durability is also an issue for the lineup.  Hamilton has managed only one full major-league season (2008).  Kinsler and Cruz have never been able to avoid the D.L.  Vladimir Guerrero, who has recaptured the magic that made him an eight-time All-Star, is nevertheless coming off the worst and the shortest season of his career.

The Rangers depth and the fact that their divisional competition may be limited makes it possible for them to overcome the speedbumps that will inevitably arise over the six-month grind.  However, if they are to be anything more than a nice underdog story in October, they are going to need everybody healthy and effective.  The Rays, Yankees, and Twins all look like juggernauts, and all are constructed to win big and win now.  

Hippeaux's Mailbag

I finally posted a functional email address earlier this month (sorry about that).  Since then, there has been a trickle of questions, mostly fantasy related.  Here are some answers which I thought might be relevant for others:


"So, Hippeaux, do you still hate the Bradley/Silva trade?" - Eric


I definitely deserve this.  I reemed Jim Hendry for making this deal and ridiculed it again and again over the course of the offseason.  Silva didn't show the slightest sign of weakness until his last start.  He's been among the Cubs best starting pitchers so far (2-0, 2.90 ERA).  Meanwhile, Bradley has continued a descent into irrelevancy by beginning the year with a 684 OPS and then exiling himself from the team to deal with psychological issues.  So, yes, Hendry is probably feeling pretty satisfied with himself right now.  Silva's been a contributer.  Marlon Byrd has been outstanding (956 OPS).  Alfonso Soriano is hotter than he's been since the middle of 2008.  Even the Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen move has worked out pretty well so far (1.80 ERA in four appearances).  If the Cubs make the postseason, even if they stay in the hunt until August, I promise to write Jim Hendry an extended apology.  If they don't, expect more venom.


"I paid thirty-some dollars for Greinke in a mixed 5X5 league.  After a month, he's got zero wins.  Should I try to trade him?  I need pitching.  What can I expect to get?" - Steve

I ranked Zack Greinke outside of my top tier of pitchers this February for two reasons: 1.) It would be almost impossible to duplicate the season he had in 2009, so some regression was inevitable, and 2.) He still plays for the Royals, who still stink, perhaps even more than they did last year.  As a result, I don't own Greinke in any leagues.  That said, I certainly don't think Greinke's '09 was a fluke.  Even if he has several more rough outings than he did last year, he'll easily be a legitimate fantasy Ace.

After six starting in '09, these were Greinke's 5X5 numbers: 6-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 54 K, 45 IP.
This season, at the same juncture, they look like this: 0-3, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP.

His strikeout rate is down a little bit, but mainly, he's just been unlucky.  Only one team, the Red Sox, has gotten to him for more than two earned runs.  Three times he's left the game with a lead and wound up with a no decision.

Sure, it's quite possible that Greinke will suffer a season of disappointments, ala Matt Cain in '07 and '08, but even if that happens, he contributions to your rate stats will make him a worthy #2 starter.  And, if you trade him now, you risk "selling low" and missing out on the stretch where he wins six in a row or eight out of ten.  At this point, I actually covet Greinke a little more than I did in the preseason.  These are the only pitchers who I would trade him for straight-up: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, C. C. Sabathia, Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.

"I know you've seen the PECOTA projections already.  In the ESPN magazine Baseball Think Factory says that the Angels have only a 2.5% chance of winning the AL West.  How can that be?" - Tim

I received this message before the season began, so I'll begin with the response the sent Tim at that time:

"I'm continually surprised by how poorly the 2010 Angels are performing in preseason simulations, which consistently have them finishing behind the Rangers, Mariners, and even the Athletics.  I've said repeatedly that I think the rumors of the Angels demise have been greatly exaggerated.  I don't expect they will win the division by ten games, as they did in '09, but I think they'll be at least an 85 win team and as safe a bet as anybody to win the AL West.  My only explanation for the Angels poor performance in simulations is that they had several players who had career years in '09: Jered Weaver, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar, Juan Rivera, etc.  Even Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu had among their best seasons.  More often than not, regression is to be expected.  I certainly think the younger players are capable of continuing to build on what they did in '09, but it is true that at some point guys like Abreu and Matsui will hit the wall.  Will it be this year?  I don't know."

It's still very early, but the Halos performance so far suggests the boys at Baseball Think Factory and Baseball Prospectus get paid the "big bucks" for a reason.  The Angels are 12-17 and, more significantly, their -43 run differential is better than only Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore (and not by that much).  Still, it's a relatively small sample and they are only three games back, so one good week could be enough to get me right back on the Angels bandwagon.

I've watched Los Angeles quite a bit and I'll admit they've got some serious holes.  The Brandon Wood experiment has been a complete bust and, unless something dramatic happens, I think will be put to rest before the end of May.  Erick Aybar has not adapted to hitting leadoff and the Angels don't have anybody else who appears better suited to that role. 

The starting pitching, which I expected to be the Angels strength, despite the departure of John Lackey, has been the team's most serious issue (5.00 ERA, 12th in A.L.).  The hired guns, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro, have each shown improvement in recent starts after tough Aprils.  I expect both will be at least serviceable behind the clear Ace, Jered Weaver.  But Joe Saunders has been especially abysmal (1-5, 7.04 ERA).  The Angels top prospect, Trevor Bell, continues to dominate at AAA, so don't be surprised if Saunders loses his spot.

Mike Scioscia has never been afraid of shaking things up.  Don't be surprised if Saunders, Wood, and Brian Fuentes soon find the end of their leashes.  The Angels depth of options, combined with the fact that no team in the AL West appears ready to run away from the rest, are cause for continued optimism.

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...I've Got No Frickin' Clue Who's Gonna Win the AL West

It's damn sure going to be fun to watch.

You've got the Scioscia-constructed juggernaut, the Los Angeles Angels, who are coming off three consecutive division titles (and five of the last six), but look oddly unfamiliar without Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, and Chone Figgins.

There's the offseason darling, the Seattle Mariners, whose GM seems to be every sportswriter's new man-crush (myself included), even though his highest finish thusfar is third place.  The Mariners have a pair of Aces (King Felix & Cliff Lee), a pair of exceptional leadoff hitters (Ichiro & Chone Figgins), and a pair of designated hitters (Ken Griffey Jr. & Milton Bradley), but it isn't quite clear whether all the pieces will fit nicely together.

There's a redemption song being written in Texas, as Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton try to overcome offseason drug scandals (not the performance-enhancing kind), Vladimir Guerrero tries to prove his career is far from over, and Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux try to figure out how to get 200 innings out of Rich Harden.

And, finally, there are the sneaky-good Oakland Athletics.  Billy Beane has shunned household names following the Holliday-Giambi-Garciaparra debacle in 2009, but he's got tons of young talent on both side of the ball, and won't hesitate to give anybody and everybody an opportunity.  The players in the mix for the rotation, especially, could make their divisional rivals very, very uncomfortable.

At some point during the last month I've imagined every team in this division as worthy of my support.

PECOTA P'SMOTA

ESPN Insider is currently running a series in tandem with Baseball Prospectus on the PECOTA Projections for each of the divisional races.  PECOTA is a player projection system invented by Nate Silver, who recently became America's most famous statistician, after his wildly popular 2008 election projections at FiveThirtyEight.com.  For the last couple seasons, Baseball Prospectus has co-opted the PECOTA player projections to produce team projections as well, with full acknowledgement that there are a variety of factors which cannot be accounted for in this way.

Last season, PECOTA did a fairly good job in the AL, predicting three of the four playoff representatives and coming darn close on a number of win-loss records.  They were a bit too high on the Indians (projecting a first place finish) and the Athletics (second place), but otherwise their projections look an awful lot like what actually happened.

PECOTA wasn't nearly as accurate on the NL, netting just one of the four postseason teams (Dodgers).  BP was hardly alone in predicting the Cubs to win the Central and the Mets to win the East, though both picks ended up looking silly, as the team finished third and fourth, respectively.  Perhaps their most surprisingly call was predicting the D-Backs to take the Wild Card with the Rockies (the eventual Wild Card winner) finishing last in the West.

For 2010, PECOTA has once again yielded some pretty interesting results.  The biggest surprise comes from the AL West, where BP is not only predicting a more tightly packed race (which probably goes without saying since all four teams have been very active this offseason), but have the three-time reigning champion Angels finishing dead last.  If would be their first such finish of Mike Scioscia's career.  PECOTA projects that all three of the other franchises in the AL West will finish above .500, with the Rangers coming out on top by a four games.

Obviously, as I'm sure even BP would readily admit, the margin of error for PECOTA is relatively large.  Anytime teams are separated by five games or less, it can probably be considered a tie, which makes the AL Central results even more fascinating.  PECOTA has three teams - the White Sox, Twins, and Tigers - in a dead heat for first place, with nobody managing even a .500 record.  PECOTA has all three at 80 wins, with the Indians just three games back.  I would agree with what this projection implies, that all of these franchises have considerable limitations, and that the division will probably be decided largely by injuries and in-season maneuvering by its exceptional class of managers and general managers (Kenny Williams & Ozzie Guillen, Dave Dombrowski & Jim Leyland, Bill Smith & Ron Gardenhire, Mark Shapiro & Manny Acta).  

In the NL, PECOTA lines up pretty closely with the conventional wisdom, with both the Phillies and Cardinals expected to win their divisions by a fairly substantial margin.  In the West, BP has gotten on the Colorado bandwagon, perhaps embarrassed by their naysaying in '09 (PECOTA is, of course, a computer program, so, presumably, it doesn't experience embarrassment).  They have the Rockies winning the division, with the D-Backs finishing second, in position for the Wild Card.  Most surprising, perhaps, is that they've got the Dodgers and Giants, who many expect to battle for first, finishing at only .500, in a tie for third place.

Most people who check in on the PECOTA projections are probably interested foremost by one question, "Yankees or Red Sox?"  Last year PECOTA accurately predicted that New York would win the NL East, with Boston taking the Wild Card, and the Rays finishing third with a winning record (PECOTA actually thought Tampa Bay would be slightly better than they were).  This year they again see all three teams posting 90+ wins, but with Boston coming out on top, followed by the Yankees and then the Rays.  The caveat, of course, is that the trio is separated by only a three-game margin, so clearly, it's anybody's division.

If we re-interpret the PECOTA projections as Power Rankings, they expect the top five teams to be the 1.) Red Sox (94 W), 2.) Yankees (92), 3.) Rays (91), 4t.) Phillies/Cardinals/Rockies (88) and the bottom five teams to be 30.) Blue Jays (71), 29t.) Padres/Pirates (72), 27.) Royals (74), 26t.) Angels/Nationals (76).

Offseason Prospectus #2: The Los Angeles Angels

Angels fanatic, True Grich, made some early predictions regarding Anaheim's free agents. Well, so far he's one-for-one. Within 24 hours of the official end of the season, the Angels resigned Bobby Abreu for two years and $19 Million. Not quite the bargain basement price they got last spring ($5 Mil.) before Abreu drove in over a hundred runs for his seventh consecutive season and became a clubhouse leader and de facto batting instructor, helping several of his teammates in the pursuit of career highs.

During the ALDS against the Red Sox, Torii Hunter described Bobby Abreu as "my favorite player." Over the course of a single season, Abreu became so popular among fans and teammates that the Angels appear to have prioritized his contract over those of long time Halos like John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins. And, it's hard to fault them.

According to FanGraphs, Abreu was worth over $11 Million in 2009, for just his on-the-field production during the regular season, and has been worth at least that much in ten of his last eleven seasons, so when you factor in potential playoff production and intangibles like leadership, Abreu will likely well exceed the approximately $9 Million he'll get in each of the next two seasons (Abreu's contract also includes a $9 Mil. option for 2012, with a $1 Mil. buyout). The bad news for the Angels is that they still have a lot of work to do this offseason.

Free Agents:

Kelvim Escobar (33) RHSP

Chone Figgins (31) 3B

Vladimir Guerrero (35) DH/RF

John Lackey (31) RHSP

Darren Oliver (38) LHRP

Robb Quinlan (32) 3B/1B

Arbitration Eligible:

Erick Aybar (25) SS

Maicer Izturis (28) 2B/SS

Howie Kendrick (25) 2B

Jeff Mathis (26) C

Mike Napoli (27) C

Joe Saunders (28) LHSP

Jered Weaver (26) RHSP

Reggie Willits (28) OF

ETA 2010?:

Trevor Bell (23) RHSP

Hank Conger (22) C

Freddy Sandoval (27) 3B

Brandon Wood (24) 3B/SS

Unfortunately for the Angels, because it is a rather thin free agent class in 2010, Lackey and Figgins will both be among the five most-coveted players on the market, driving up the price of their services. And, as you can see, the Angels not only face potentially expensive free agent decisions, but also have a number of very good young players who are due for sizable raises in arbitration. It may be the winter for them to consider multi-year deals for guys like Weaver, Saunders, and Aybar.

The Angels are not a team that is reluctant to spend money, but they usually budget for one or two major free agents, not three or four. To make matters worse, for the first time in years they face some serious competition in their own division. Both the Rangers and Mariners were among 2009's most pleasant surprises, finishing with 87 and 85 wins respectively, and there is no reason to expect either will be any worse in 2010. There is no room for stepping backward if the Angels want to return to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year and the sixth time in seven seasons.

The good news for Angels fans is that they won't have to wait long to get a sense of their team's intentions. The Abreu signing is one in a long line of Angels moves made very early in the "hot stove" season. In the next couple weeks, I expect the Angels will also make reasonable offers to Lackey and Figgins, maybe others as well, and if those are rejected, will start looking elsewhere very quickly.

Vladimir Guerrero is one of the most popular (and best) players in Angels history, but his marked decline over the last two seasons, due in part to injuries, combined with the bevy of corner-outfield and DH-type players in the Angels system, may signal the end of Vladdy era. If he wants to stay in southern California, it will almost certainly require a dramatic paycut, perhaps as part of an incentive and option laden contract. Guerrero is a very proud player and he may, instead, choose to auction his services to the highest bidder, and their will be interested parties. The Angels worst nightmare is seeing the 35-year-old have a resurgent season as the DH for the Mariners (1089 career OPS @ Safeco) or Rangers (1175 career OPS @ Arlington).

Figgins is also a popular player, a career Angel with ties to the community. He is also among the best leadoff hitters in the game, in a year that several big-market teams (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, etc.) could be looking for a top-of-the-order hitter. Figgins has settled at third base over his last couple seasons in Anaheim, but if he were willing to consider the super-utility role he excelled at earlier in his career, his flexibility would probably be worth millions of dollars to some franchises.

The likelihood of a Figgins exodus is increased by the fact that the Angels have several potential replacements already in-house. Brandon Wood has been waiting awhile for the chance at an everyday job. He has slugged 20+ HR in the minors for five straight seasons (homering approximately once in every eighteen plate appearances), so it's clear there's not much left for him to prove at AAA. The Angels also have Freddy Sandoval, who was injured for much of '09, but hit .335 at Salt Lake in '08. And, they could probably work Maicer Izturis into the third base rotation, if they decide to give Howie Kendrick more at-bats against right-handed pitching.

John Lackey represents the most difficult quandary for the Angels brass. He is their undeniable Ace, yet he hasn't made thirty starts since '07 and (surprisingly) he's won more than fourteen games only once in his career. He's only 31-years-old, so his best years could still be in front of him (ala Jon Lieber), although his struggles with "fitness" could make him more like Bartolo Colon, who had his last good season at the age of 32. Because he is clearly the best free agent pitcher on the market, somebody is going to give Lackey a long-term, big-money deal, regardless of the risk. If it isn't the Angels, they will probably choose to sign a back-end innings-eater (perhaps a Jarrod Washburn renaissance?) and hope that an true Ace emerges from the trio of Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Scott Kazmir, each of whom have the talent to rise to the occasion.

Rumors that the Angels have been exploring a Milton Bradley for Gary Matthews Jr. swap, though probably unfounded (remember how well Mike Scioscia got along with Jose Guillen?), do suggest that the Angels front office will be willing to explore creative solutions this winter. They have always valued their prospects very highly, and have been rewarded for their patience with players like Santana, Juan Rivera, and Kendry Morales, but the Abreu signing and the Kazmir trade, combined with the fact that they don't have a single player signed beyond 2012, may suggest that Los Angeles is embracing a "win now" mentality.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

SS Erick Aybar (S)

RF Bobby Abreu (L)

CF Torii Hunter (R)

1B Kendry Morales (S)

DH Hideki Matsui (L)

RF Juan Rivera (R)

2B Howie Kendrick (R)

C Mike Napoli (R)

3B Maicer Izturis (S)

SP Scott Kazmir (L)

SP Jared Weaver (R)

SP Joe Saunders (L)

SP Ervin Santana (R)

SP Trevor Bell (R)

CL Brian Fuentes (L)

SU Kevin Jepsen (R)

SU Fernando Rodney (R)

MR Scot Shields (R)

MR Jason Bulger (R)

LOOGY Brian Shouse (L) FA

SWING Matt Palmer (R)

C Jeff Mathis (R)

IF Brandon Wood (R)

IF Freddy Sandoval (S)

OF Gary Matthews Jr. (S)

The Angel Ethic

Regardless of how the series turns out (and with a so-far utterly untouchable C. C. Sabathia looming, it is hard to get too optimistic), I'm glad it didn't come down to a "Grady Little." Obviously, Angels management and their fan base have far more loyalty to Mike Scioscia than the Red Sox ever had (or should have had) to Little. But one couldn't help thinking, as the Yankees rallied for six runs with two outs in the 7th inning of Game 5, we're seeing a train wreck which won't soon be forgotten and the blame for which will fall on the manager. Scioscia made two somewhat surprising decisions in the inning. First, he pulled John Lackey. Lackey had, certainly, worked his way into trouble. After getting two quick outs he got rattled by what he thought was a strikeout of Jorge Posada and proceeded to walk the bases loaded. Nonetheless, it was clear this was not a result of fatigue, but merely a little mental blip and an eroding strike zone (I will add, the pitch that upset Lackey, although clearly over the inside corner and above the knees according to FOX's Pitch Trax, continued to be called a ball for both teams for the remainder of the game).

I was certainly on the edge of my seat, but I saw no reason why Lackey couldn't get Texeira out. Moreover, whether you were going to stay with Lackey or not, the situation dictated a right-handed pitcher. Over the course of the season, Texeira demonstrated very little difference in his platoon splits, but during the last two weeks he has clearly been more comfortable as a right-handed hitter. His only postseason extra-base hits have come as a righty, as have half of his total hits, despite significantly few at-bats against lefties. Plus, A-Rod loomed in the on-deck circle, so a right-handed pitcher would be appropriate in the event the inning was extended.

Darren Oliver has been great this postseason and all year, but he got beat by Texeira. C'est la vie. Giving A-Rod the free pass was clearly the right move. Hideki Matsui, professional hitter that he is, put a good swing on a decent pitch down in the zone and drove home another run. And, thus, Scioscia made another suspect decision. He took out his left-handed specialist, the guy who he had deemed best suited to handle a bases-loaded situation in a must-win game only minutes earlier, despite the fact that another left-handed hitter, Robinson Cano, was coming to the plate, and he was to be followed by a switch-hitter, Nick Swisher, who, again, had no significant variance in his platoon splits. Scioscia elected to bring in Kevin Jepsen, Cano smoked a triple to right-center, and the Yankees took a two-run lead.

Thankfully, the Angels once again demonstrated their incredible resilience, immediately striking back for three runs in the bottom of the 7th and, narrowly, holding on for the remaining frames, thus Mike Scioscia's unconventional pitching changes have evaded intense media scrutiny. The fact is...they were utterly defensible moves. Mark Texeira has torched John Lackey over the course of his career (19-for-49, 2 HR, 11 RBI). Scioscia knew it. Texeira knew it. I'm certain Lackey knew it (he doth protest too much). Robinson Cano - little known fact - actually hits lefties just as well as righties, and he especially likes Mr. Oliver (to the tune of 6-for-8 lifetime).

So the only real question was why he went with Darren Oliver in the first place, instead of going directly to Jepsen. I can only surmise that Scioscia decided to ride the hot hand. Oliver hadn't given up a run in his last nine innings, six of them in the postseason, and had a 1.80 ERA dating back to the beginning of September. Not only that, but Oliver, at the age of 39 is clearly the Angels most experienced reliever. He's pitched in each of the last four postseasons and had a 3.09 postseason ERA before last night's drubbing.

My point is, Scioscia is not, like Grady Little, a pure "gut" manager. He would never rationalize a critical decision with baseball superstition or his sixth sense. He, like Girardi, in fact, utilizes all the data he has at his disposal, makes an informed interpretation, and is willing to live with the consequences. Good on 'im.

Anxiety in the Outfield

After a prolonged hiatus, I'm returning to the blogosphere to begin my discussion of the 2008 season. In the coming weeks and months, I will likely weigh in on the popular topics of the moment - the Mitchell Report, the Roger Clemens hearings, the Barry Bonds indictment, the Johan Santana trade, etc. - but I'd like to begin our broadcast season by looking at some of the more intriguing on-field situations to watch when spring training begins in just over a week. Today, in particular, I'll be addressing a few outfields which seem inevitably in flux. Obviously, there are implications for those fantasy-oriented members in the audience, but this is also of interest for the more casual baseball fan because, unlike in most offseasons, the dealing is not yet done. Look for teams to unload excess and fill holes using free agency and trades well into the spring training schedule.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

No matter how you look at it, the Angels are dealing from a position of strength. Sure, they dealt one of their most popular players, Orlando "Orange County" Cabrera, to secure Jon Garland from the White Sox, but they have three high-profile yougsters, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis, and Brandon Wood, ready to fill his shoes. They've also got depth in the rotation with Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Nick Adenhart competing for the final slot. And, they've got a bullpen featuring one of baseball's most consistent, dominating closers, K-Rod, and two top set-up men, Scot Shields and Justin Speier. But today, as I was saying, we're focused on the outfield. The Angels surprised everybody when the signed one of this offseason's prime free agents, Torii Hunter, to a long, loaded contract. It wasn't that anybody doubted the Angels willingness to spend money in the free agent market. In recent years they've doled out hundreds of millions to high-profile players like Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon; however, their last major acquisition was Gary Matthews Jr., a moderately speedy, moderately powerful, superb defender, who might accurately be described as "Torii Hunter-lite." What do the Angels plan on doing with two gold-glove caliber centerfielders?

Well, we can safely assumed that $90 Million Dollar Man, Torii Hunter, with his seven consecutive gold gloves will be getting most of the starts in center. We can also safely assume that $50 Million Dollar Man, Gary Matthews Jr., will not be riding the pine. Although Matthews was dogged last season by nagging injuries and accustions that HGH was a major factor in his breakout season in 2006, he quietly put up another solid, though not outstanding, campaign. He hit 18 HR, scored 79 runs and drove in 72, stole 18 bases, and, of course, played highlight reel defense, despite the fact that he hit only .211 in the second-half. If he had kept up his first-half pace and not be dogged by problems with his knee, he numbers would've looked very similar to those he posted in Texas in 2006.

The Angels see know reason to move Matthews since, as I was saying, they are dealing from a position of strength throughout their roster. If injuries befall key players or the abundant youth in the system fail to develop as expected, Matthews could be traded during the season, but I expect him to be a sort of utility outfielder who plays everyday. Most of his starts will come in left, as Garret Anderson becomes the regular DH, but rightfielder Vladimir Guerrero , who's also suffered from knee injuries, will also see some time there (he was a DH for 41 games in '07), as will Hunter, who has spent all his career on the rock-hard surface in Minnesota, the same type of surface that is responsible for the hardships of guys like Vlad, Andre Dawson, and Larry Walker.

What further complicates the outfield situation in Anaheim is the presence of Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera. Willits is another speedy young Angel. He finished fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting last season, after hitting .293 and stealing 27 bases while filling in for Anderson, Matthews, and Guerrero. Willits could be a useful leadoff hitter or fourth outfielder for many teams. His value is raised further by the amount of time left before he reaches free agency. If he isn't getting any playing time, look for him to be dealt for assistance at catcher or in the bullpen. Rivera is even further below the radar, but has more upside offensively than either Willits or Matthews. He is best suited for right field or DH, but he hit 23 HR, drove in 85 RBI, and batted .310 in 2006, before missing all of last season to a broken leg. He is still only 29 and may represent better protection for Vlad than either Anderson or Hunter, considered the leading candidates for the cleanup slot. If he is given the opportunity, beware!

Los Angeles Dodgers

The question for Dodgers fans is this: Which of these lineups would you rather see on the field?

C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Jeff Kent
3B Nomar Garciaparra
SS Rafeal Furcal
LF Juan Pierre
CF Andruw Jones
RF Matt Kemp

or

C Martin
1B Loney
2B Tony Abreu
3B Andy LaRoche
SS Chin-Ling Hu
LF Andre Ethier
CF Delwyn Young
RF Kemp

I'm guessing most Dodger fans will still pick lineup A, and it may be the better choice for '08. I, however, would not want to bet on that. And, I can say with certainty that, come 2010, it is going to be lineup B (or something closely resembling it) taking the field at Chavez Ravine nightly. Each of the members of lineup B are in their early-to-mid twenties, have two years or less experience, and represent, along with pitchers like Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, and Clayton Kershaw, quite possibly the best conglomeration of young talent in the major leagues. Unfortunately, right now more than half of them don't have a chance of starting or even making the major league roster and there is noth to be gained from another year at AAA for guys like Ethier, Young, LaRoche, and Hu. Garciaparra, Kent, and Pierre will be on short leashes if they
again have slow starts or nagging injuries.

In the outfield, specifically, we can assumed that Matt Kemp's position is etched in stone. He arrived on the scene in a big way in 2006, when, as a 21-year-old rookie he hit 7 HRs and drove in 14 over an eleven game stretch. Then the league figured out that he was a free swinger and he was demoted for more seasoning. Last June he came to stay, batting .338 with 10 HR, 10 SB, and 39 RBI in less than 300 ABs. He is likely to benefit from the added presence of Andruw Jones protecting him in the lineup and roaming centerfield, as a mentor, but is also likely to outperform him offensively. Although he will go behind Jones and Juan Pierre in most fantasy drafts, his combination of batting average, speed, and power makes him more valuable than either of them and a great mid-round steal.

Jones is looking to rebound from a much-publicized year-long slump in 2007, which may have cost him a considerable amount of money on the free agent market, much to the chagrin of agent Scott Boras. Although there may be some truth to the pervasive rumors of declining speed, due largely to weight issues, it is hard to believe that Jones' offensive numbers are going to take a dramatic and permanent downward turn at the age of 30. He stopped stealing bases long ago, and it wasn't his foot-speed that allowed him to average 35+ homers a season from 2000-2006. The last time Jones had a slightly "down" year, in 2004 (29 HR, 91 RBI), he rebounded with the two best seasons of career (41/51 HR, 128/129 RBI). If he comes to spring training looking fit, don't necessarily expect an MVP-caliber season, but 35 HR and 110 RBI isn't at all unreasonable hitting in a lineup stacked with high-average, high-OBP guys like Martin, Loney, Kemp, Furcal, and Kent.

Juan Pierre is coming off three consecutive "down" years. After posting OBPs of .361 and .374 in his first two seasons with the Marlins ('03 and '04), he hasn't gotten above .331 in three seasons with Florida, Chicago (NL), and Los Angeles. As a pure lead-off hitter with no power, no arm, and only moderate range in the outfield due to his often strange jumps, Pierre's value to tied exclusively to his ability to get on base and steal bases. The second half of the equation is still no problem (he's averaged 60 steals a year for the past three seasons), but he can't nab second if he doesn't get to first and recently he hasn't gotten to first as often as 25-year-old Andre Ethier (.357 OBP in two seasons), who doesn't steal bases, but does have decent power and plate discipline. More dangerous perhaps is Delwyn Young, also 25. Young isn't a base-stealer either, but he hit .382 in a limited stint last September and he raked AAA to the tune of a .337 average, 955 OPS, 17 HR, 54 2B, and 97 RBI in 121 games.

Five outfielders this talented is probably at least one too many. If the Dodgers are willing to swallow some of his remaining salary, Pierre makes the most sense to deal, but the youngsters might also be valuable commodities in a trade to a rebuilding franchise like Oakland (Joe Blanton).

Washington Nationals

Last year, the Nationals had one of the weakest outfields in baseball and, as a result, one of the weakest offenses in baseball. Center field was particularly a problem. The combination of Nook Logan and Ryan Langerhans combined for six homers, 63 runs, and 43 RBI. Neither had an OPS above 700. Meanwhile, Ryan Church (28) and Austin Kearns (27), both high-potential hitters coming into the prime of their careers, turned in mediocre performances, not the "break-up" campaigns the Nationals were expecting. It was clear, even before the season ended, that this was the primary concern for GM Jim Bowden going into 2008. He traded for Wily Mo Pena in mid-August and Pena rewarded him with 8 HR and an 856 OPS in 37 games. Then, early in the offseason, he dealt Church and veteran catcher Brian Schneider to the Mets for top prospect Lastings Milledge and, soon thereafter, acquired Elijah Dukes from Tampa Bay.

All three come with abundant baggage. Pena has been a full-time major-leaguer for four seasons, even though he's only 26. But, unlike most players of his age with his talent, he has never been given the opportunity to play everyday, largely due to his inconsistency against right-handed pitching. He is one of those players who has been labeled as "difficult" in the clubhouse, but without much justification as to why.

In the cases of Milledge and Dukes, there is plenty of justification for the label. Milledge made a number of inappropriate public statements and gestures during his short tenure with the Mets which led to them letting him go, despite the fact that many look at the trade as highway robbery based on the pure talent of the players. Milledge is a prototypical tools player. There isn't anything amazing in his minor-league (or major-league) stats, largely because there aren't that many of them. He is only 22 and has spent much of the past two seasons on the Mets bench. Given a chance to play center every day, he is likely good for a .290 average, 10-15 HR, 80+ runs, and 25+ SB. All of those numbers, especially the power, as likely to escalate as he moves into his mid-twenties. He could eventually be something between Eric Byrnes and Carlos Beltran.

Dukes' ceiling is probably even higher, but the "difficulties" are greater, too. He was sent home last season after multiple "domestic disturbances," despite the fact that he hit 10 HR with the big club in only 200 plate appearances. Dukes has spectacular power and, more importantly, tremendous plate discipline, walking almost as often as he strikes out, a rare feat for a power-hitter. He also plays the outfield well and has base-stealing speed. If he can harness his temper, he will eventually supplant somebody in the Nationals outfield, and is the only player in this group with the chance to become a bonafide superstar. Although there has been even more publicity given to Dukes' extracurricular struggles, it would do us well to remember that Gary Sheffield was not exactly well-behaved (at least, according to the media) when he arrived in the majors, but, despite the fact that he remains out-spoken and controversial, he has become among the most respected clubhouse personalities in the league.

The comparison of young Sheffield with young Dukes seems warranted both on the field as well. Milwaukee brought Sheffield to the big club at the age of 19, after he absolutely torched minor-league pitching in 1987 and 1988 (222 RBI between AA and AAA, in only 263 games! When he was in his teens!). However, he tenure in Milwaukee was marred by injuries, "behavioral problems," and slumps. Sheffield didn't become the intimidating monster that we've come to know and love until he was moved to San Diego in 1992, the first season he played in more than 125 games. Nonetheless, despite all his struggles, from '88 to '91, Sheffield drew 97 walks while fanning only 96 times. Sheffield break-out 1992 season, in which he batted .330, hit 33 HR, and drove in 100 RBI, came at the age of 23. Elijah Dukes turned 23 on June 26, 2007, but the last time he suited up for a major league game was June 19.

The Other 27

In brief, here are a few other outfield battles to watch this spring:

Chicago Cubs: Soriano and Fukudome are solidified in the corner slots, but the Cubs need a center-fielder (what's new?). Felix Pie and Sam Fuld are the front-runners. The Cubs also still have Matt Murton, a seemingly forgotten prospect, who remains glued to the bench despite signs of being a productive regular. Look for him to be used as trade bait.

Chicago White Sox: Nick Swisher and Jermaine Dye are the stalwarts, while Jerry Owens, Carlos Quentin, Josh Fields, and Alexei Ramirez must compete for at-bats, along with third-baseman Joe Crede, who will probably get traded to free up a place for Fields in the infield. Quentin is the best offensive option of the group, but that leaves Swisher in center, which is not the ideal position for him.

Oakland Athletics: The rebuilding season in Oakland promises to be a revolving door at many position, including the outfield, where nobody is a safe bet to start consistently. The crop of probable candidates include Jack Cust (who will also DH), Carlos Gonzalez, Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney, Emil Brown, and Jeff Fiorentino. Assuming some of these options don't pan out, don't be surprised if Billy Beane is willing to try guys like Dan Johnson, a first baseman by trade, and top catching prospect, Landon Powell, in left.

Seattle Mariners: Ichiro and Raul Ibanez will lock down left and center, and Adam Jones is no longer in the picture, so right is up for grabs. Brad Wilkerson and Wladimir Balentin will both see time there, with Balentin being the better choice in terms of long-term potential. However, don't forget that not so long ago Wilkerson was a disciplined hitter with good power. He just finished two dreadful seasons in Texas. Perhaps a new batting coach can get him back on track.

Texas Rangers: Speaking of Texas, where hitting seems to be a feast or famine enterprise (see Wilkerson, Texeira, Blalock, Matthews Jr., etc.), they have locked down Josh Hamilton in center and, on can assume, Milton Bradley will play right or DH when he is healthy. The remaining at-bats (quite plentiful, if precedent prevails) will be shared by Marlon Byrd, Frank Catalanatto, Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, and Jason Botts. All of who have enough power (save Murphy, probably) to feast at Arlington.