When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work. You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon. As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues. Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:
Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB
However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.
ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting. It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.
However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math. There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October. Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned. Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain. Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base. Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked. John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.
The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson. That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season. The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.
If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings. Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball. It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.
I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players. Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.
This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings. Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.
I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:
Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH
Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).
Toronto Blue Jays:
Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco. Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced. Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs. But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.
The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities. Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs. And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.
The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that. Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career). Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly). The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B. Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.
None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos. He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll. One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).
Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.
Minnesota Twins:
The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round. The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder." Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:
Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)
Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.
Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders. Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Fantastic Thoughts: Rafael Soriano The Latest Premier Reliever To Settle For "Holds"
Rafael Soriano disappointed his fantasy owners yesterday when he signed the largest set-up man contract in the history of the game. If you owned Soriano last year, you probably got him for a song and he proceeded to be the most productive closer in the game. In many keeper leagues it would be possible to redouble that value in 2011...if Soriano had signed on to be somebody's closer. Soriano chose instead to be Mariano Rivera's opening act. There's nothing wrong with that. He'll get to pitch for a competitive team. He'll be in line, potentially, to be Mo's replacement (if he ever retires). And, in the interim, he'll be content to take home around $12 Million a year. Not too shabby.
In most fantasy formats, however, Soriano is now all but irrelevant, joining a cast which includes Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps: all established closers who will spend 2011 as set-up men. From a baseball perspective, this is a very encouraging trend. More and more GMs have realized that it's just as rational (if not more rational) to pay for a dominant reliever who pitches whenever the game is on the line in the 7th and 8th, as it is to pay seven figures to a guy who only takes the ball in save situations. From a fantasy perspective, this sucks.
There were already few enough guys who were consistent candidates for 30+ saves. Now several of them are chasing "holds" instead. When the 2011 season begins, at least a third of the 30 MLB teams will be featuring a pitcher for whom this is their first Opening Day with the closer label. Several may elect to go with that infamous strategy which is fantasy kryptonite: closer-by-committee.
Some will be apt to tell you that this widespread uncertainty is reason to invest heavily in one of the few truly established closing options, guys like Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Jose Valverde. I disagree. I hate paying for saves. With so many bullpens in flux, more cheap saves are coming into the league than ever before. Besides Soriano (48 SV), here are some guys you could've had for next to nothing in 2010:
Matt Capps (42 SV), Kevin Gregg (37 SV), Leo Nunez (30 SV), John Axford (24 SV), Matt Lindstrom (23 SV), Chris Perez (23 SV), Octavio Dotel (22 SV), Jon Rauch (21 SV), Brandon Lyon (20 SV), Alfredo Simon (17 SV), Juan Gutierrez (15 SV), Fernando Rodney (14 SV), Koji Uehara (13 SV), Hong-Chih Kuo (12 SV), Manny Corpas (10 SV)
Just counting guys who went either undrafted or in the very final rounds of standard drafts, that's fifteen players with double-digit saves. I'd be willing to bet there will be even more in 2011. Let's take a look at the few of the franchises with the most uncertainty and discuss some of the candidates for closing duties.
Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays have probably the best bullpen in baseball last season. However, this offseason, they lost their four best releivers: Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler. They also lost a couple innings-eaters in Randy Choate and Chad Qualls. The additions Tampa Bay has made - Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta - are not exactly guys who've had late-inning success, so the new closer is almost certainly coming from within the organization.
J. P. Howell will get a crack at it, if he's healthy. Howell was very good during a limited tenure as Tampa Bay's closer during the second half of 2009 (16 SV, 3.02 ERA). However, he missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury. He may not be ready to pitch again at all until May or June, and even then nobody can predict how his surgically-repaired rotator cuff will respond.
The Padres converted Mike Ekstrom into a reliever during the 2008 season. In two full seasons at AAA, Ekstrom posted a 2.24 ERA. Promoted in the final month of 2010, Ekstrom looked fine doing mop-up work for the Rays (3.31 ERA in 16 IP). However, Ekstrom has never been a closer at any level and doesn't have prototypical closer stuff (6.8 K/9 at AAA).
With Joe Maddon, anything is possible. Maddon is notorious for going against the conventional wisdom, especially in his bullpen management. In the past, for brief periods, he featured top-flight starters like David Price and Matt Garza at closer. Maddon could consider rehashing that trick with Jake McGee. McGee is one of the Rays top pitching prospects and, after a solid run at AA in 2010, he's probably not far from being major-league ready. However, there's currently no room in the rotation. The Rays gave McGee a quick audition in relief at the end of last year. He posted a 0.52 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 innings at AAA and a 1.80 ERA with 6 K in five innings in the bigs. Obviously, that's an extremely small sample, but he's got the kind of power stuff (10.4 K/9 in his professional career) that one likes to see in a closer.
Finally, don't sleep on Matt Gorgen. Gorgen was the closer of the Montgomery Biscuits (AA) last year, piling up 22 saves and a 1.65 ERA in 45 innings. If Gorgen can continue to build momentum at AAA and the closer carousel doesn't go well in the early months of the season, Maddon could be very interested in a guy who has spend his entire pro career closing games, has a solid minor-league track record, and a power arm (10.1 K/9 in minors).
Atlanta Braves:
Some, including myself, aren't fully convinced that Billy Wagner is really retiring, just two saves away from becoming all-time leader for left-handed relievers and fourth overall, behind just Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith.
If Wagner really doesn't come back for a 16th season, the Braves may be forced to turn to one of their other flame-throwing southpaws, either Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty. Both Venters and O'Flaherty were excellent last seasons. Venters (1.95 ERA, 93 K, 83 IP) even garnered a little Rookie of the Year consideration, which is a hard thing to do as a middle reliever. Both will be 26-years-old in 2011. O'Flaherty has more experience, but Venters would probably get the first crack at the job.
The closer of the future in Atlanta is Craig Kimbrel. Many are assuming that future is now. Kimbrel throws fire (14.4 K/9 in minors). He moved quickly through the minors as a closer and posted solid numbers in his late-season audition (0.44 ERA, 40 K, 21 IP). Fredi Gonzalez may indeed be comfortable handing him the job straightaway. However, I expect Atlanta will be a little cautious following Kimbrel's NLDS. When Wagner was sidelined, they asked Kimbrel to take over the ninth and in a critical Game 3 appearance he got a little ruffled and ended up taking the loss. Bobby Cox was alwasy reluctant to use young pitchers in the 9th. Don't be surprised if Gonzalez follows that pattern as well.
With that in mind, one probably shouldn't ignore the presence of George Sherrill. Sherrill quietly joined the Braves bullpen this offseason. He is the only pitcher in Atlanta with substantial closing experience (52 SV between '08 and '09). He had a tough year in L.A. in 2010, but he's one of those unflappable reliever that managers generally love to use in the 9th.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Most are assuming that 37-year-old Octavio Dotel has been signed to be the Blue Jays closer. I, personally, think that's an unwise assumption. Dotel hasn't spent a full season closing games since 2004. His last temporary stint as a closer (during the first half of 2010 with Pittsburgh) was sufficiently underwhelming (4.28 ERA).
The Jays have other options. Their best reliever from last season was Shawn Camp (2.99 ERA in 72 IP). Camp's numbers have gotten substantially better every years since 2007. He may be due for a shot.
Jason Frasor, who began the season as Toronto's closer, after posting great numbers in 2009, should also be on your radar. Frasor lost the job to Kevin Gregg after blowing two of his first five opportunities, but he really found his rhythm again in the second half. He had a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP after the All-Star Break.
Also, watch for Alan Farina, who the Jays recently added to their 40-man roster. Farina, drafted in '07, could move quickly in '11. He compiled a 1.29 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9 between two levels in 2010.
Chicago White Sox:
Bobby Jenks will be pitching for a different color of Sox in 2011, for the first time in his career, so, for the first time since 2005, the ChiSox are auditioning closers.
The Vegas money would probably be on Matt Thornton, who, in three seasons as Jenks primary set-up man, posted a 2.70 ERA and 245 K in 200 IP. The only thing working against Thornton is the fact that he's far more valuable doing exactly what he's been doing for the last three years. His rubber arm, his ability shut down the league's top lefties, and work out of james with inherited runners are all talents that would be slightly compromised by reserving him exclusively for save situations.
Instead, the Sox could hand the job over to Chris Sale, their 2010 draft pick who went almost directly to the major leagues. After being drafted in June, Sale sailed through the minors and still managed to get 21 appearances in Chicago, where he posted a 1.93 ERA with 32 K. Ozzie Guillen handed Jenks the closer job when he was just a rookie, so don't assume he'll be hesitant to put that pressure on Sale.
In most fantasy formats, however, Soriano is now all but irrelevant, joining a cast which includes Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps: all established closers who will spend 2011 as set-up men. From a baseball perspective, this is a very encouraging trend. More and more GMs have realized that it's just as rational (if not more rational) to pay for a dominant reliever who pitches whenever the game is on the line in the 7th and 8th, as it is to pay seven figures to a guy who only takes the ball in save situations. From a fantasy perspective, this sucks.
There were already few enough guys who were consistent candidates for 30+ saves. Now several of them are chasing "holds" instead. When the 2011 season begins, at least a third of the 30 MLB teams will be featuring a pitcher for whom this is their first Opening Day with the closer label. Several may elect to go with that infamous strategy which is fantasy kryptonite: closer-by-committee.
Some will be apt to tell you that this widespread uncertainty is reason to invest heavily in one of the few truly established closing options, guys like Rivera, Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, and Jose Valverde. I disagree. I hate paying for saves. With so many bullpens in flux, more cheap saves are coming into the league than ever before. Besides Soriano (48 SV), here are some guys you could've had for next to nothing in 2010:
Matt Capps (42 SV), Kevin Gregg (37 SV), Leo Nunez (30 SV), John Axford (24 SV), Matt Lindstrom (23 SV), Chris Perez (23 SV), Octavio Dotel (22 SV), Jon Rauch (21 SV), Brandon Lyon (20 SV), Alfredo Simon (17 SV), Juan Gutierrez (15 SV), Fernando Rodney (14 SV), Koji Uehara (13 SV), Hong-Chih Kuo (12 SV), Manny Corpas (10 SV)
Just counting guys who went either undrafted or in the very final rounds of standard drafts, that's fifteen players with double-digit saves. I'd be willing to bet there will be even more in 2011. Let's take a look at the few of the franchises with the most uncertainty and discuss some of the candidates for closing duties.
Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays have probably the best bullpen in baseball last season. However, this offseason, they lost their four best releivers: Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler. They also lost a couple innings-eaters in Randy Choate and Chad Qualls. The additions Tampa Bay has made - Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta - are not exactly guys who've had late-inning success, so the new closer is almost certainly coming from within the organization.
J. P. Howell will get a crack at it, if he's healthy. Howell was very good during a limited tenure as Tampa Bay's closer during the second half of 2009 (16 SV, 3.02 ERA). However, he missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury. He may not be ready to pitch again at all until May or June, and even then nobody can predict how his surgically-repaired rotator cuff will respond.
The Padres converted Mike Ekstrom into a reliever during the 2008 season. In two full seasons at AAA, Ekstrom posted a 2.24 ERA. Promoted in the final month of 2010, Ekstrom looked fine doing mop-up work for the Rays (3.31 ERA in 16 IP). However, Ekstrom has never been a closer at any level and doesn't have prototypical closer stuff (6.8 K/9 at AAA).
With Joe Maddon, anything is possible. Maddon is notorious for going against the conventional wisdom, especially in his bullpen management. In the past, for brief periods, he featured top-flight starters like David Price and Matt Garza at closer. Maddon could consider rehashing that trick with Jake McGee. McGee is one of the Rays top pitching prospects and, after a solid run at AA in 2010, he's probably not far from being major-league ready. However, there's currently no room in the rotation. The Rays gave McGee a quick audition in relief at the end of last year. He posted a 0.52 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 17 innings at AAA and a 1.80 ERA with 6 K in five innings in the bigs. Obviously, that's an extremely small sample, but he's got the kind of power stuff (10.4 K/9 in his professional career) that one likes to see in a closer.
Finally, don't sleep on Matt Gorgen. Gorgen was the closer of the Montgomery Biscuits (AA) last year, piling up 22 saves and a 1.65 ERA in 45 innings. If Gorgen can continue to build momentum at AAA and the closer carousel doesn't go well in the early months of the season, Maddon could be very interested in a guy who has spend his entire pro career closing games, has a solid minor-league track record, and a power arm (10.1 K/9 in minors).
Atlanta Braves:
Some, including myself, aren't fully convinced that Billy Wagner is really retiring, just two saves away from becoming all-time leader for left-handed relievers and fourth overall, behind just Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and Lee Smith.
If Wagner really doesn't come back for a 16th season, the Braves may be forced to turn to one of their other flame-throwing southpaws, either Jonny Venters or Eric O'Flaherty. Both Venters and O'Flaherty were excellent last seasons. Venters (1.95 ERA, 93 K, 83 IP) even garnered a little Rookie of the Year consideration, which is a hard thing to do as a middle reliever. Both will be 26-years-old in 2011. O'Flaherty has more experience, but Venters would probably get the first crack at the job.
The closer of the future in Atlanta is Craig Kimbrel. Many are assuming that future is now. Kimbrel throws fire (14.4 K/9 in minors). He moved quickly through the minors as a closer and posted solid numbers in his late-season audition (0.44 ERA, 40 K, 21 IP). Fredi Gonzalez may indeed be comfortable handing him the job straightaway. However, I expect Atlanta will be a little cautious following Kimbrel's NLDS. When Wagner was sidelined, they asked Kimbrel to take over the ninth and in a critical Game 3 appearance he got a little ruffled and ended up taking the loss. Bobby Cox was alwasy reluctant to use young pitchers in the 9th. Don't be surprised if Gonzalez follows that pattern as well.
With that in mind, one probably shouldn't ignore the presence of George Sherrill. Sherrill quietly joined the Braves bullpen this offseason. He is the only pitcher in Atlanta with substantial closing experience (52 SV between '08 and '09). He had a tough year in L.A. in 2010, but he's one of those unflappable reliever that managers generally love to use in the 9th.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Most are assuming that 37-year-old Octavio Dotel has been signed to be the Blue Jays closer. I, personally, think that's an unwise assumption. Dotel hasn't spent a full season closing games since 2004. His last temporary stint as a closer (during the first half of 2010 with Pittsburgh) was sufficiently underwhelming (4.28 ERA).
The Jays have other options. Their best reliever from last season was Shawn Camp (2.99 ERA in 72 IP). Camp's numbers have gotten substantially better every years since 2007. He may be due for a shot.
Jason Frasor, who began the season as Toronto's closer, after posting great numbers in 2009, should also be on your radar. Frasor lost the job to Kevin Gregg after blowing two of his first five opportunities, but he really found his rhythm again in the second half. He had a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP after the All-Star Break.
Also, watch for Alan Farina, who the Jays recently added to their 40-man roster. Farina, drafted in '07, could move quickly in '11. He compiled a 1.29 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9 between two levels in 2010.
Chicago White Sox:
Bobby Jenks will be pitching for a different color of Sox in 2011, for the first time in his career, so, for the first time since 2005, the ChiSox are auditioning closers.
The Vegas money would probably be on Matt Thornton, who, in three seasons as Jenks primary set-up man, posted a 2.70 ERA and 245 K in 200 IP. The only thing working against Thornton is the fact that he's far more valuable doing exactly what he's been doing for the last three years. His rubber arm, his ability shut down the league's top lefties, and work out of james with inherited runners are all talents that would be slightly compromised by reserving him exclusively for save situations.
Instead, the Sox could hand the job over to Chris Sale, their 2010 draft pick who went almost directly to the major leagues. After being drafted in June, Sale sailed through the minors and still managed to get 21 appearances in Chicago, where he posted a 1.93 ERA with 32 K. Ozzie Guillen handed Jenks the closer job when he was just a rookie, so don't assume he'll be hesitant to put that pressure on Sale.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Matt Garza is Not Your Savior, Cubs Fans. Sorry.
The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays. Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib thinks this is a move that makes the Cubs serious contenders again in the NL Central. I caution all Cubs fans against such enthusiasm.
Here's the good news. Garza is a pitcher in his prime. He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players. Garza is a premium talent. He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches. In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP. He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons. He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007. Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental. And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central. That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board. Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.
It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty. A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage. And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come. However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011. Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke. And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.
Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story. From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA. Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September. Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League. More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss. My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace. That could be true. Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern. His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9). He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12). According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average). There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.
Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term. In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza. He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation. Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average. Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall. Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood. Is that really a solution? Maybe, maybe not. On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage. Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings. In fact, it probably exacerbates them.
Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09. Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward. Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth. The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman. The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.
I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.
UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels. MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.
Here's the good news. Garza is a pitcher in his prime. He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players. Garza is a premium talent. He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches. In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP. He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons. He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007. Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental. And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central. That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board. Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.
It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty. A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage. And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come. However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011. Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke. And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.
Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story. From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA. Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September. Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League. More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss. My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace. That could be true. Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern. His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9). He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12). According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average). There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.
Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term. In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza. He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation. Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average. Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall. Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood. Is that really a solution? Maybe, maybe not. On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage. Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings. In fact, it probably exacerbates them.
Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09. Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward. Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth. The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman. The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.
I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.
UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels. MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.
Monday, October 04, 2010
My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Rangers v. Rays Is Better Than You Think ('10 Division Series Preview)
On the one hand, I will miss the drama of the play-in game. Such games have provided arguably the finest competition of the season in each of the past two Octobers. However, wins from the Braves and Giants on Sunday eliminated the cinderella Padres, and in so doing, assured the best possible matchups in the NLDS.
Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team. With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in. So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...
I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen. Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...
ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League. As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.
Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge. For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:
As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best. Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half. Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night. What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework. Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October. If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.
On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring. However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road. Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.
Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B. All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start. However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7. As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL. This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control. Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.
The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.
I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games. Both teams possess balanced attacks. They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power. In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.
Texas in 5.
ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means. Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.
This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October. The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter). They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York. And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.
Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009. They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346). They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen. They have an atrocious infield defense. They have struggled to hit southpaws. In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad. Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.
An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs. The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.
In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory. Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time. Last year they went 4-for-4. In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces. If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.
Twins in 4.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL. They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year). There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September. The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby. And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October. They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.
With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath. That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00. I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite. They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park. It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday. Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.
Phillies in 3.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants
On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams. They've got nearly identical records. They both clinched on the last day of the season. They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs. Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups. They both played significantly better at home.
Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched. These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions. The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs. Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season. In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record. Their pitching also faltered. While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.
The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September. Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell. And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.
By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts. The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings. Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings. Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.
Giants in 4.
Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team. With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in. So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...
I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen. Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...
ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League. As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.
Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge. For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:
| Texas: | Tampa: | ||
| Cliff Lee | 7.0 | David Price | 4.3 |
| C. J. Wilson | 4.4 | Matt Garza | 2.0 |
| Colby Lewis | 4.4 | Wade Davis | 0.9 |
| Tommy Hunter | 0.7 | James Shields | 2.2 |
As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best. Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half. Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night. What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework. Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October. If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.
On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring. However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road. Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.
Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B. All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start. However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7. As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL. This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control. Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.
The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.
I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games. Both teams possess balanced attacks. They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power. In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.
Texas in 5.
ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means. Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.
This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October. The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter). They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York. And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.
Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009. They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346). They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen. They have an atrocious infield defense. They have struggled to hit southpaws. In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad. Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.
An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs. The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.
In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory. Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time. Last year they went 4-for-4. In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces. If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.
Twins in 4.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL. They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year). There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September. The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby. And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October. They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.
With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath. That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00. I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite. They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park. It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday. Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.
Phillies in 3.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants
On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams. They've got nearly identical records. They both clinched on the last day of the season. They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs. Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups. They both played significantly better at home.
Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched. These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions. The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs. Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season. In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record. Their pitching also faltered. While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.
The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September. Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell. And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.
By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts. The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings. Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings. Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.
Giants in 4.
Friday, October 01, 2010
"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Tampa Bay Rays
- Baseball City?: It was fortunate I held off a few days before addressing the Rays, because a new component was introduced to their NLF formula just this week, when, following their postseason-clinching win over the Orioles, Evan Longoria and David Price sparked a minor controversy by complaining about the lack of support they were getting from Tampa fans, as crowds have been very light in the waning weeks, even though the Rays are chasing the top record in the AL. This isn't really a "new" story, as Tampa's attendance problem, alternately blamed on an apathetic fanbase, an unattractive and inconvenient ballpark, and a miserly owner, has fueled relocation speculation for a decade, essentially from the moment the Rays entered the league. The Rays went to the World Series in '08 and have now put together competitive teams for three consecutive years, so their quality of play is no longer to blame, yet attendance is essentially unchanged. Many are speculating that the Rays TV ratings have improved significantly enough to offset mediocre attendance, but owner, Stuart Sternberg, has already cited it as one reason why he will be scaling back the payroll in 2011. The outcome of this postseason may, to some extent, decide the future of baseball in Tampa. Not only do the Rays need the revenue which playing baseball in October generates, but they may need a championship in order to promote support for a new stadium. Without that stadium, Sternberg may elect either to scale back salaries to an extent that competing in the AL East would be even more far-fetched, or could seek to relocate the team to someplace like Charlotte.
- Good For Bloggers: Sabermetrician and baseball blogger extraordinaire, John Keri, has written a book about the Rays front office philosophy, called The Extra 2%, scheduled for publication in March. Not only would a win probably increase interest in the book, which I expect could potentially be as interesting and influential and Michael Lewis's Moneyball, though likely not a popular, but it would certainly strengthen his argument about Andrew Friedman's well-executed plan if the Rays also had a championship trophy to hang their hats on.
- The Break-Up: To that effect, there is little doubt, win or no, that the very special collection of talented players, almost all of which came up through Tampa's minor league system, will start going their separate ways come November. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are free agents. Many have speculated that B. J. Upton, following two disappointing seasons, may need a change of scenery. Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and others may also go on the trading block as Friedman commits to the rebuilding process. If and when the Rays make it back to the postseason, they will likely be have a dramatically different composition. This set of players will go down in history as their first quality Rays team, one that captured our imaginations with their improbable surge to the front of the AL East, a place generally reserved only for the monolithic franchises of New England. When Tampa's best are all playing for one of those monoliths, it would be nice if they had a Rays ring to annoy the other millionaires with.
What with those eight last-place finishes in their first nine seasons, it's easy to see how the Rays could still be viewed as an underdog. They are not, clearly, following three seasons in which they averaged 92+ wins. They have one of the cagiest GMs in the league and are loaded, both at the major and minor league level. The Rays have been built to perform like a well-oiled machine. Unfortunately, they sometimes play the game that way. They are professional and business-like in almost every way, but not always animated and full of moxy, the way we generally presume our underdogs to be. And, at an individual level at least, there is very little sense of urgency. Almost every playoff team has an icon or token player - Roy Halladay, Jim Thome, etc. - whose legacy fuels the entire roster's desire to win. In Tampa, there is no player on the roster older than 35 (Randy Choate) and the average age is 28. These guys certainly don't feel like this could be their "last chance".
Narrative Likability Factor: B
Saturday, September 11, 2010
"Do Yankees Prefer Yankees?" or "Is purebreeding consensual?"
Completely baseless pronouncements are the lifeblood of ESPN commentary. At times, I think ESPN purposely hires the most ignorant and asinine broadcasters and "journalists" in the industry explicitly because they realize that we love their network most in the moments when their "experts" reveal themselves as so vulgarly stupid and incompetent that it becomes impossible to suffer them in silence. While watching television, seemingly unmolested, you suddenly scream invectives so blue they surprise even your wife. Or, while taking a leisurely stroll along the beach, innocently listening to a podcast on your headphones, you're inspired to bark incomprehensible half-syllables like a Tourette's sufferer, frightening bikini-clad passers-by.
The brazen ineptitude of the ESPN's "talent" begat one of the best sports blogs to yet grace the internet, Fire Joe Morgan, which is now being reborn as part of Deadspin. However, ESPN's greatest contribution has definitely been making sport fans more self-aware. One is less likely to blurt out an over-ambitious and/or under-developed assumption after seeing a buddy ruin his flatscreen trying to hit John Kruk with his beer.
A pervasive and irrational fondness for the Yankees and Red Sox at ESPN is, of course, nothing new, but in recent weeks they've gone googoo-gaga all over again for the Bronx Bombers. If you're a baseball junkie like me, you won't need any proof of this, but perhaps the most egregious example was Eric Karabell and Mark Simon pronouncing on Baseball Today their assurance that the Yankees would end up winning the AL East by six or more games. I've come to expect such things from their self-aggrandizing doofus of a co-host, Seth Everett, but Karabell and especially Simon are usually more tactful and deliberate in their reasoning. In this case, however, they offered nothing in the way of evidence to support this prediction. So, I have to assume that it's based on "pedigree" alone.
Ah, yes, the Yankee pedigree. I've always found the fondness for this phrase fascinating, considering the term quite literally implies a high incidence of incest.
So, let's test their hypothesis...
First of all, at no point this season have the Yankees led the Rays by more than four games. That certainly doesn't mean it can't happen, but the landscape of the first 90% of the season would have to be radically altered.
As things stand, entering tonight's contest against Texas, the Yankees have a one-game lead over the Rays in the AL East. Both the Yankees and the Rays have 21 games remaining. We should point out, there was only one instance this season when the Yankees gained as many as five games on the Rays in so short a period of time, that was in late May and early June, during a stretch when the Rays went 7-10 while the Yanks went 12-5.
At no point this season have the Rays played 21 games and done any worse than 8-13. Assuming they won't do any worse than that down the stretch (I'll explain the safeness of this assumption momentarily), for the Yankees to gain five or more games over the Rays, they will need to win, at the very least, 12 more games.
The remaining schedule makes both sides of this postulate seem far-fetched.
New York has eighteen games left against winning teams, including seven against the Rays and six against the archrival Red Sox. So far, on the season, the Yanks have gone 5-6 against Tampa and 7-5 against Boston. They also have to travel to Toronto to play a Jays team who is actually leading them in their season series (7-8). This is hardly an easy schedule. In fact, even factoring in the lowly Orioles, who the Yankees have owned (11-4), New York has just a .566 winning percentage against these teams, barely enough to get to 12 wins in 21 games.
And, to make matters worst, they will spend most of the remaining schedule on the road, playing 14 of their remaining 21 away from the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium (for the season, New York has a .567 W% on the road, .662 at home).
The Rays, on the other hand, have 13 of their remaining contests in Tampa (.623 at home, .592 on road). More importantly, the only winning team they play the rest of the way is the Yankees (as well as one remaining game in their current series with the Jays). Even when the Rays had their worst 21-game stretch of the season, if featured opponents like Boston, Chicago, San Diego, Atlanta, and Texas. Against the teams they will actually be playing down the stretch, the Rays are 27-15 (.643).
Looking at these schedules, not only does it seem highly unlikely that the Yankees will gain significant ground over the Rays, it actually looks like it would be an impressive feat if they were able to hold off the Rays and maintain their loose hold on the division. While the Yankees last ten games come against Boston (7) and Toronto (3), the Rays will be getting rich on three worst franchises in the American League: Seattle (3), Baltimore (3), and Kansas City (4).
The brazen ineptitude of the ESPN's "talent" begat one of the best sports blogs to yet grace the internet, Fire Joe Morgan, which is now being reborn as part of Deadspin. However, ESPN's greatest contribution has definitely been making sport fans more self-aware. One is less likely to blurt out an over-ambitious and/or under-developed assumption after seeing a buddy ruin his flatscreen trying to hit John Kruk with his beer.
A pervasive and irrational fondness for the Yankees and Red Sox at ESPN is, of course, nothing new, but in recent weeks they've gone googoo-gaga all over again for the Bronx Bombers. If you're a baseball junkie like me, you won't need any proof of this, but perhaps the most egregious example was Eric Karabell and Mark Simon pronouncing on Baseball Today their assurance that the Yankees would end up winning the AL East by six or more games. I've come to expect such things from their self-aggrandizing doofus of a co-host, Seth Everett, but Karabell and especially Simon are usually more tactful and deliberate in their reasoning. In this case, however, they offered nothing in the way of evidence to support this prediction. So, I have to assume that it's based on "pedigree" alone.
Ah, yes, the Yankee pedigree. I've always found the fondness for this phrase fascinating, considering the term quite literally implies a high incidence of incest.
So, let's test their hypothesis...
First of all, at no point this season have the Yankees led the Rays by more than four games. That certainly doesn't mean it can't happen, but the landscape of the first 90% of the season would have to be radically altered.
As things stand, entering tonight's contest against Texas, the Yankees have a one-game lead over the Rays in the AL East. Both the Yankees and the Rays have 21 games remaining. We should point out, there was only one instance this season when the Yankees gained as many as five games on the Rays in so short a period of time, that was in late May and early June, during a stretch when the Rays went 7-10 while the Yanks went 12-5.
At no point this season have the Rays played 21 games and done any worse than 8-13. Assuming they won't do any worse than that down the stretch (I'll explain the safeness of this assumption momentarily), for the Yankees to gain five or more games over the Rays, they will need to win, at the very least, 12 more games.
The remaining schedule makes both sides of this postulate seem far-fetched.
New York has eighteen games left against winning teams, including seven against the Rays and six against the archrival Red Sox. So far, on the season, the Yanks have gone 5-6 against Tampa and 7-5 against Boston. They also have to travel to Toronto to play a Jays team who is actually leading them in their season series (7-8). This is hardly an easy schedule. In fact, even factoring in the lowly Orioles, who the Yankees have owned (11-4), New York has just a .566 winning percentage against these teams, barely enough to get to 12 wins in 21 games.
And, to make matters worst, they will spend most of the remaining schedule on the road, playing 14 of their remaining 21 away from the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium (for the season, New York has a .567 W% on the road, .662 at home).
The Rays, on the other hand, have 13 of their remaining contests in Tampa (.623 at home, .592 on road). More importantly, the only winning team they play the rest of the way is the Yankees (as well as one remaining game in their current series with the Jays). Even when the Rays had their worst 21-game stretch of the season, if featured opponents like Boston, Chicago, San Diego, Atlanta, and Texas. Against the teams they will actually be playing down the stretch, the Rays are 27-15 (.643).
Looking at these schedules, not only does it seem highly unlikely that the Yankees will gain significant ground over the Rays, it actually looks like it would be an impressive feat if they were able to hold off the Rays and maintain their loose hold on the division. While the Yankees last ten games come against Boston (7) and Toronto (3), the Rays will be getting rich on three worst franchises in the American League: Seattle (3), Baltimore (3), and Kansas City (4).
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
A Guide To September Viewing (9/6-9/16)
For those of you utilizing MLB.tv or MLB Extra Innings, here are some series you might want to mark your calender for:
Monday, 9/6 - Thursday, 9/9: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
This four-game series began yesterday with a win for the Rockies, led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez. That win was Colorado's fourth in a row and brought them within 4.5 games of the Padres and 5 of the Wild Card leading Phillies. It doesn't take a tremendous memory to recall the Rockies tendency towards September momentum. Meanwhile, the central-leading Reds need to fight off complacency and assure they don't allow the Cardinals to climb back into the race.
Thursday, 9/9 - Sunday, 9/12: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
The Padres finally put an end to their prolonged losing streak on Monday against the Dodgers, but now hold only a game advantage over the Giants, who have won five of their last six. Regardless of what transpires on Tuesday and Wednesday, the division lead will be on the line when these two teams face off at PETCO this weekend. With the Padres young rotation starting to show its fatigue, it's difficult to argue that they have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups. The climactic battle is undoubtedly the highlight, as Tim Lincecum faces Mat Latos on Sunday afternoon.
Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Things don't get any easier for the Friars, as they begin a ten-game road trip by heading to Denver. At 44-22, the Rockies boast the second-best home record in the NL (behind Atlanta). To make matters worse (for San Diego, that is), the Rockies have won eleven of the first fifteen games in their season series, including a sweep in San Diego to begin the month, so they don't exactly head to the high altitude brimming with confidence. It's not hard to imagine them leaving Colorado in third place.
Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Both teams seem safely on course for postseason berths, but with seven games left against each other, the division, and home-field advantage, are still on the line. The series kicks off with stellar pitching battle between two Cy Young contenders, C. C. Sabathia and David Price.
Tuesday, 9/14 - Thursday, 9/16: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Assuming the Sox can maintain their winning ways, having strung together seven in a row going into tonight, this could be a battle for the last remaining AL playoff spot. The Twins are saddled with injuries, but have still managed to win at an impressive clip, recently sweeping the Rangers. They've dominated the season series up to this point, taking ten of fifteen, but far more will be riding on this series than any that came before it.
Monday, 9/6 - Thursday, 9/9: Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
This four-game series began yesterday with a win for the Rockies, led by Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez. That win was Colorado's fourth in a row and brought them within 4.5 games of the Padres and 5 of the Wild Card leading Phillies. It doesn't take a tremendous memory to recall the Rockies tendency towards September momentum. Meanwhile, the central-leading Reds need to fight off complacency and assure they don't allow the Cardinals to climb back into the race.
Thursday, 9/9 - Sunday, 9/12: San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
The Padres finally put an end to their prolonged losing streak on Monday against the Dodgers, but now hold only a game advantage over the Giants, who have won five of their last six. Regardless of what transpires on Tuesday and Wednesday, the division lead will be on the line when these two teams face off at PETCO this weekend. With the Padres young rotation starting to show its fatigue, it's difficult to argue that they have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups. The climactic battle is undoubtedly the highlight, as Tim Lincecum faces Mat Latos on Sunday afternoon.
Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Things don't get any easier for the Friars, as they begin a ten-game road trip by heading to Denver. At 44-22, the Rockies boast the second-best home record in the NL (behind Atlanta). To make matters worse (for San Diego, that is), the Rockies have won eleven of the first fifteen games in their season series, including a sweep in San Diego to begin the month, so they don't exactly head to the high altitude brimming with confidence. It's not hard to imagine them leaving Colorado in third place.
Monday, 9/13 - Wednesday, 9/15: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Both teams seem safely on course for postseason berths, but with seven games left against each other, the division, and home-field advantage, are still on the line. The series kicks off with stellar pitching battle between two Cy Young contenders, C. C. Sabathia and David Price.
Tuesday, 9/14 - Thursday, 9/16: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Assuming the Sox can maintain their winning ways, having strung together seven in a row going into tonight, this could be a battle for the last remaining AL playoff spot. The Twins are saddled with injuries, but have still managed to win at an impressive clip, recently sweeping the Rangers. They've dominated the season series up to this point, taking ten of fifteen, but far more will be riding on this series than any that came before it.
Friday, May 21, 2010
HippeauxNotes: Rays on the verge of burying Red Sox?
We're smack in the middle of a great week of baseball. With every team playing every day this week, we've got access to 105 games in seven days. It's also an odd week because each team will face three different competitors, thanks to the two-game sets featured from Monday through Thursday. I can understand why the players wouldn't be thrilled by the proposition of so much travel on so little rest, but for the fans, it's a kind of baseball heaven.
This afternoon we begin the first interleague series of the season; the most interesting matchups being Boston at Philadelphia, the Yankees at the Mets, the Angels in St. Louis, and two of the hottest teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Tigers, squaring off in L.A. It's seems as good a time as any to register some thoughts about the season so far, beginning with best team in the league.
The Tampa Bay Rays looked primed to make a major statement this week. They pulled off a two-game sweep of the Yankees in New York and have won six straight and eight of their last nine, giving them a five-game lead heading into their weekend series in Houston. That's the largest lead of any first-place team in baseball. And, while the Rays are taking on the lowly Astros, the Red Sox will have to face the powerful Phillies on the road and the Yankees will "travel" to Citi Field to face the Mets, who have a 14-8 record at home this season. The real opportunity for the Rays comes early next week, when the Red Sox come to Tampa for a three-game set. Depending on what happens this weekend, it's very possible that a sweep could raise the Red Sox deficit to double digits, perhaps putting even the Wild Card out of reach. ESPN2 will broadcast the series opener, which pits Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35 ERA) against Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) in a battle of promising young righthanders. The Aces take the hill in game two, as James Shields (5-1, 3.08 ERA) matches up with Jon Lester (4-2, 3.47 ERA). And on Wednesday the quiet Cy Young candidate, Matt Garza (5-1, 2.38 ERA), looks to prolong the misery of the Red Sox big free agent acquisition, John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA), who has surrendered eleven earned runs in his last thirteen innings.
This afternoon we begin the first interleague series of the season; the most interesting matchups being Boston at Philadelphia, the Yankees at the Mets, the Angels in St. Louis, and two of the hottest teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Tigers, squaring off in L.A. It's seems as good a time as any to register some thoughts about the season so far, beginning with best team in the league.
The Tampa Bay Rays looked primed to make a major statement this week. They pulled off a two-game sweep of the Yankees in New York and have won six straight and eight of their last nine, giving them a five-game lead heading into their weekend series in Houston. That's the largest lead of any first-place team in baseball. And, while the Rays are taking on the lowly Astros, the Red Sox will have to face the powerful Phillies on the road and the Yankees will "travel" to Citi Field to face the Mets, who have a 14-8 record at home this season. The real opportunity for the Rays comes early next week, when the Red Sox come to Tampa for a three-game set. Depending on what happens this weekend, it's very possible that a sweep could raise the Red Sox deficit to double digits, perhaps putting even the Wild Card out of reach. ESPN2 will broadcast the series opener, which pits Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35 ERA) against Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) in a battle of promising young righthanders. The Aces take the hill in game two, as James Shields (5-1, 3.08 ERA) matches up with Jon Lester (4-2, 3.47 ERA). And on Wednesday the quiet Cy Young candidate, Matt Garza (5-1, 2.38 ERA), looks to prolong the misery of the Red Sox big free agent acquisition, John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA), who has surrendered eleven earned runs in his last thirteen innings.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
The Baby Rays...er...Jays
The anchors at ESPN and sportswriters around the league have been quick to highlight the exploits of this season's most surprising franchises, namely the Padres, Reds, and Athletics. But one team, which has been more or less the equal to all of them, has gone largely unappreciated: the Toronto Blue Jays.
As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League. They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring. Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum. Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).
For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay. I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.
So far, that hasn't been the case. Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop. In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity. Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin). Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind. Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.
As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent. Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.
On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs. Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.
There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable. Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace. And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also. But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold. They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks. The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.
The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play). They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate. All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.
I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto. Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team. They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.
Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied. Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457). Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536). That pretty much tells the story. If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade. As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.
Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year. Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model. The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future. Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).
The fairy-tale ending is this. In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract. He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency. If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.
There are still some familiar faces. Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16). But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development. Wallace provides legit power from first base. The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field. J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop. The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.
If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture. Is is realistic? Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago. During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs. The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon. They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost. They'll need the Yankees to show some age. They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected. And they'll need a little luck. But, hey, don't we all.
As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League. They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring. Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum. Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).
For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay. I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.
So far, that hasn't been the case. Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop. In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity. Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin). Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind. Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.
As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent. Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.
On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs. Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.
There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable. Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace. And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also. But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold. They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks. The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.
The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play). They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate. All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.
I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto. Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team. They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.
Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied. Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457). Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536). That pretty much tells the story. If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade. As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.
Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year. Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model. The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future. Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).
The fairy-tale ending is this. In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract. He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency. If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.
There are still some familiar faces. Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16). But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development. Wallace provides legit power from first base. The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field. J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop. The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.
If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture. Is is realistic? Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago. During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs. The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon. They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost. They'll need the Yankees to show some age. They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected. And they'll need a little luck. But, hey, don't we all.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Fantastic Questions: "Pay for Rays?"
We've survived the Ides of March and, although your draft and auction season is probably just beginning, mine is already wrapping up. Most blogger and fantasy analyst leagues and mocks happen well in advance of the season, so that there is a chance for commentary. As such, I've already done 8 drafts/auction in a variety of different formats and I'm beginning to feel like I've got a pretty good sense of the trends this March and some of the questions you need to ask yourself during your draft prep, like...
What can you expect from Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist?
Last season the Rays finished fifth in the American League in scoring. All the teams who finished ahead of them went to the playoffs. They had been the top scoring franchise at the All-Star Break. And yet, the Rays got very little from B. J. Upton, Dioner Navarro, and Pat Burrell. They lost Akinori Iwamura for the year. They lost Carlos Pena for all of the September. Where was all this production coming from? The obvious answers are Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, but the big surprise in 2009 was how much the Rays depended on Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist...on both sides of the ball.
Until last year, Bartlett was viewed primarily as a defender. In both '07 and '08 he finished third among AL shortstops in UZR, but it both seasons his OPS was under 700. He was the classic "slick-field, no-hit" shortstop. But in 2009, his batting average jumped to .320, 44 points above his career average up to that point. His OPS jumped almost 200 points, to 879, as he hit more home runs in one season (14) than he had in 1700 previous major-league plate appearances (11). Thanks to a spike in OBP he was able to cash in more often on his speed and swiped 30 bases for the first time in his career and scored 90 runs. By the end of '09 Bartlett had set career highs in every statistical category and had gone to his first All-Star Game.
As 2010 begins, he is among the most coveted shortstops in fantasy baseball, especially in AL-only leagues. In many drafts he is the second player taken at his position, behind Derek Jeter. If you want Bartlett in an auction league, you'd better be prepared to pay $18-$20.
Unfortunately, there is almost no way that Bartlett will live up to that price. His BABIP in 2009 was almost 40 points above his career norm, which accounts entirely for his tremendously high average. Every projection I've seen has him settling back into the .280-.290 range. This, of course, is likely to effect his run, RBI, and stolen base totals. However, Bartlett did hit for a high average in the minor leagues, so I could see him once again breaking .300, though not by much.
There is even less reason to believe that the power is legit. Bartlett hit a grand total of nine homers in three seasons at AAA. His '09 slugging percentage was 20 points higher than his previous career high...at any level.
I isn't reasonable expect more from Bartlett in 2010 than .295 AVG, 80 R, 8 HR, 55 RBI, and 25 SB. Even those numbers might be slightly optimistic. Clearly, he's still worth owning, especially in AL-only play, where good shortstops are particularly scarce, but I'd let Bartlett fall behind Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada on my draft board and in an auction league I would prefer to $5-$8 on the potential of J. J. Hardy or Erick Aybar, than $15-$20 on Jason Bartlett.
Zobrist's case is very different. Although his 27 HR and 91 RBI seemed to come from out of nowhere, Zobrist has always been a very good hitter. His problem has been getting enough at-bats to put his talents on display. Whether because he was dogged by minor injuries or because he drew the short stick on the Rays depth chart, Zobrist hadn't gotten a full season worth of plate appearances at any level since 2006. The Rays brass bounced him all over the organization and the diamond the last three years, as he logged innings at every position besides pitcher and catcher. Nevertheless, he always posted solid averages (.316 in 364 minor-league games) and exceptional OBP (.429) and BB/K (1.29). There was evidence of developing power as well, although his .543 SLG in '09 may be a bit on the high side.
Settled into second base and getting everyday at-bats, I expect Zobrist could actually build on his '09 campaign, at least in three categories. I don't expect more than 25 HR and 15 SB (Zobrist has never run at a particularly high rate of success), but 100+ R and 100+ RBI are very realistic if the Rays continue to bat him fifth and I think his average will climb above .300. On my board he ranks just below the top tier of second baseman (Utley, Pedroia, Phillips, Cano, Kinsler) and I'd be willing to pursue him up to and perhaps slightly above $20, depending on the league.
What can you expect from Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist?
Last season the Rays finished fifth in the American League in scoring. All the teams who finished ahead of them went to the playoffs. They had been the top scoring franchise at the All-Star Break. And yet, the Rays got very little from B. J. Upton, Dioner Navarro, and Pat Burrell. They lost Akinori Iwamura for the year. They lost Carlos Pena for all of the September. Where was all this production coming from? The obvious answers are Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, but the big surprise in 2009 was how much the Rays depended on Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist...on both sides of the ball.
Until last year, Bartlett was viewed primarily as a defender. In both '07 and '08 he finished third among AL shortstops in UZR, but it both seasons his OPS was under 700. He was the classic "slick-field, no-hit" shortstop. But in 2009, his batting average jumped to .320, 44 points above his career average up to that point. His OPS jumped almost 200 points, to 879, as he hit more home runs in one season (14) than he had in 1700 previous major-league plate appearances (11). Thanks to a spike in OBP he was able to cash in more often on his speed and swiped 30 bases for the first time in his career and scored 90 runs. By the end of '09 Bartlett had set career highs in every statistical category and had gone to his first All-Star Game.
As 2010 begins, he is among the most coveted shortstops in fantasy baseball, especially in AL-only leagues. In many drafts he is the second player taken at his position, behind Derek Jeter. If you want Bartlett in an auction league, you'd better be prepared to pay $18-$20.
Unfortunately, there is almost no way that Bartlett will live up to that price. His BABIP in 2009 was almost 40 points above his career norm, which accounts entirely for his tremendously high average. Every projection I've seen has him settling back into the .280-.290 range. This, of course, is likely to effect his run, RBI, and stolen base totals. However, Bartlett did hit for a high average in the minor leagues, so I could see him once again breaking .300, though not by much.
There is even less reason to believe that the power is legit. Bartlett hit a grand total of nine homers in three seasons at AAA. His '09 slugging percentage was 20 points higher than his previous career high...at any level.
I isn't reasonable expect more from Bartlett in 2010 than .295 AVG, 80 R, 8 HR, 55 RBI, and 25 SB. Even those numbers might be slightly optimistic. Clearly, he's still worth owning, especially in AL-only play, where good shortstops are particularly scarce, but I'd let Bartlett fall behind Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada on my draft board and in an auction league I would prefer to $5-$8 on the potential of J. J. Hardy or Erick Aybar, than $15-$20 on Jason Bartlett.
Zobrist's case is very different. Although his 27 HR and 91 RBI seemed to come from out of nowhere, Zobrist has always been a very good hitter. His problem has been getting enough at-bats to put his talents on display. Whether because he was dogged by minor injuries or because he drew the short stick on the Rays depth chart, Zobrist hadn't gotten a full season worth of plate appearances at any level since 2006. The Rays brass bounced him all over the organization and the diamond the last three years, as he logged innings at every position besides pitcher and catcher. Nevertheless, he always posted solid averages (.316 in 364 minor-league games) and exceptional OBP (.429) and BB/K (1.29). There was evidence of developing power as well, although his .543 SLG in '09 may be a bit on the high side.
Settled into second base and getting everyday at-bats, I expect Zobrist could actually build on his '09 campaign, at least in three categories. I don't expect more than 25 HR and 15 SB (Zobrist has never run at a particularly high rate of success), but 100+ R and 100+ RBI are very realistic if the Rays continue to bat him fifth and I think his average will climb above .300. On my board he ranks just below the top tier of second baseman (Utley, Pedroia, Phillips, Cano, Kinsler) and I'd be willing to pursue him up to and perhaps slightly above $20, depending on the league.
Friday, March 05, 2010
My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Yankees Eat It!
Wishful thinking, right? The Yankees, of course, when they're clicking, are the best team in the game, as they proved by posting the best record in baseball during the 2009 regular season, then winning the World Series. The thing about the '09 Yanks though...they were really, really lucky. I know, I know, there's no such thing as a "lucky" two-hundred-million-dollar team. The Steinbrenners paid handsomely for every one of those 114 wins and every one of those pretty rings which now adorn the private showrooms of their exclusive cast of aspiring billionaires. Fair enough.
What I'd like to point out, however, is that of none of the Yankees starting nine in '09 missed a significant stretch of time. Sure, A-Rod had the whole flexible hip thing (remember that?) which cost him April, but he still got 535 plate appearances and his annual 30 HR and 100 RBI. Jorge Posada missed a couple weeks midsummer, but he still got into more than twice as many games as he did in 2008. And the remainder of the starting seven all played at least 142 games. Even more importantly, four Yankee pitchers made 30+ starts. So, I'd like you to guess, how many franchises had eight players get 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers make 30+ starts in '09?
That's right, one and only one: the New York Yankees.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, got basically nothing from Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz, both of whom were supposed to be big contributors to their rotation, and Tim Wakefield missed most of the second half. The lost their starting shortstop, Jed Lowrie, for basically the whole season and got a significantly reduced effort from their starting third-baseman, Mike Lowell, whose hip injury limited him to a hobbled 434 at-bats. J.D. Drew, predictably, and Kevin Youkilis, unpredictably, also missed a few weeks apiece. And the Red Sox still managed to win 95 games.
So, imagine for a moment that New York had some similarly bad luck. Say, they lost A. J. Burnett for the season and Joba Chamberlain for half the season, as well as Melky Cabrera, and A-Rod didn't make it back until June, and even at that point, he was only half-strength. Would they have managed 95 wins? 90?
Are you willing to bet that they can repeat their clean bill of health?
What I'd like to point out, however, is that of none of the Yankees starting nine in '09 missed a significant stretch of time. Sure, A-Rod had the whole flexible hip thing (remember that?) which cost him April, but he still got 535 plate appearances and his annual 30 HR and 100 RBI. Jorge Posada missed a couple weeks midsummer, but he still got into more than twice as many games as he did in 2008. And the remainder of the starting seven all played at least 142 games. Even more importantly, four Yankee pitchers made 30+ starts. So, I'd like you to guess, how many franchises had eight players get 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers make 30+ starts in '09?
That's right, one and only one: the New York Yankees.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, got basically nothing from Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz, both of whom were supposed to be big contributors to their rotation, and Tim Wakefield missed most of the second half. The lost their starting shortstop, Jed Lowrie, for basically the whole season and got a significantly reduced effort from their starting third-baseman, Mike Lowell, whose hip injury limited him to a hobbled 434 at-bats. J.D. Drew, predictably, and Kevin Youkilis, unpredictably, also missed a few weeks apiece. And the Red Sox still managed to win 95 games.
So, imagine for a moment that New York had some similarly bad luck. Say, they lost A. J. Burnett for the season and Joba Chamberlain for half the season, as well as Melky Cabrera, and A-Rod didn't make it back until June, and even at that point, he was only half-strength. Would they have managed 95 wins? 90?
Are you willing to bet that they can repeat their clean bill of health?
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #22: The Tampa Bay Rays
Underdogs are exceedingly rare in baseball. That is, teams that come as if from out of nowhere and make a serious run at the playoffs. Even rarer are underdogs who get to the very brink of being champions, as the Rays did in 2008. And rarest of all is an underdog who can duplicate such a performance from one season to the next.
It was almost inevitable that the 2009 Rays would backtrack, at least nominally. But let me remind you that finishing in third place, with a winning record, in the AL East is no small accomplishment. The 2009 Rays were fifth in the AL in runs scored and starter's ERA. With 84 wins and a +49 run differential in the toughest division in baseball, one could make a strong case that the 2009 Rays were one of the top four teams in the American League (trailing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels).
Prognosticators have already resumed business as usual, treating the AL East as the two-horse race it has been for most of the last decade (since 1997, only once has a team other than Boston or New York won the division, and only one other time did a team other than Boston or New York finish second). Rest assured, however, neither Terry Francona nor Joe Girardi view the Rays as underdogs any longer, and Tampa Bay is only a few good breaks away from being right back in the race for the AL pennant.
It was almost inevitable that the 2009 Rays would backtrack, at least nominally. But let me remind you that finishing in third place, with a winning record, in the AL East is no small accomplishment. The 2009 Rays were fifth in the AL in runs scored and starter's ERA. With 84 wins and a +49 run differential in the toughest division in baseball, one could make a strong case that the 2009 Rays were one of the top four teams in the American League (trailing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels).
Prognosticators have already resumed business as usual, treating the AL East as the two-horse race it has been for most of the last decade (since 1997, only once has a team other than Boston or New York won the division, and only one other time did a team other than Boston or New York finish second). Rest assured, however, neither Terry Francona nor Joe Girardi view the Rays as underdogs any longer, and Tampa Bay is only a few good breaks away from being right back in the race for the AL pennant.
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