Fonz Redux

It's been a busy month, but during a pre-holiday lull I wanted to offer a couple of opinions about the flurry of deals from the concluding week of 2010.  First up, the top two free agent hitters from this year's class, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, both signed seven-year, nine-figure deals earlier in December.  These were the two largest contracts handed to outfielders since Alfonso Soriano signed his $136 Million deal with the Cubs prior to the 2007 season.  That deal already looks like one of the worst albatrosses in baseball history, as Soriano's production has declined dramatically over the last four years.

There are some unfortunate correlations between Soriano and this years duo of high-priced outfielders.  For starters, both Crawford and Werth have made their reputations, at least to some extent, based upon their speed.  The same was true of Soriano.  When he signed his megadeal, he was coming off a 40/40 season. Werth has posted a pair of 20/20 seasons and in the last three years has a rather incredible 88% stolen base success rate since becoming a Phillie.  Crawford, considered one of the speediest men in all of baseball, has led the league in steals on four occasions, and has averaged 50 steals per season since 2003.  Though both are corner outfielders by preference, their speed also makes it possible for them to slide over to center when necessary and helps to make them Gold Glove candidates at their natural positions.  The problem with paying high premiums for speed is that too often it is the first of the five tools to dissipate.  Take Soriano, for instance.  After averaging 35 steals a year in his first six seasons, Soriano has managed only 13 per year in his four seasons with the Cubs, largely due to nagging hamstring injuries.  He became an absolute drain as Chicago's leadoff hitter and was finally moved down in the order last season.

Injuries have effected Soriano's game on the whole, of course.  In his first six seasons, Soriano never played in fewer than 145 games.  Since coming to Chicago, however, he's reached that mark only once.  Werth and Crawford have also been relative iron men.  Werth has missed only nine games in the past two seasons; Crawford only fourteen.  Will they be able to maintain that pace, especially as they move into their 30s?

This brings us to the biggest and most obvious problem with deals like these: aging.  Werth with be 32 during the 2011 season.  The Nationals will be on the hook for $84 Million after he turns 35.  In order to "earn" that money, Werth will probably need to manage at least four or five Wins Above Replacement per season.  The list of outfielders who have managed to do that in their late thirties is extraordinarily short: Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki.   Can Jayson Werth aspire to that class?

In this respect, Crawford's deal makes a lot more sense.  He will earn more money than Werth over the next seven years, but his contract expires only a few months after his 35th birthday.  Theo Epstein will take his fair share of flack in the coming years, as Boston's payroll escalates into pinstriped territory.  But Epstein, thusfar at least, has not been spending much of his money on players in decline (John Lackey aside).  For exactly that reason he passed on expensive long-term deals on Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, even though they were extremely productive in their limited runs with the BoSox, and turned his attentions instead to Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

While it's highly likely that Carl Crawford's best seasons are still in front of him, thus justifying his $20 Million per year salary, the same can not be said of Jayson Werth.  Werth's career arch is very worrisome and not just because of his advanced age.  Due in part to some unfortunate injuries and perhaps in part to some poor personnel decisions made by his first two franchises (the Dodgers and Jays), Werth did not become an everyday player until he joined the Phillies in 2007.  Even then he was limited to platoon at-bats for some time.  As a result, unlike Crawford, he doesn't have a long track record of sustained brilliance, which make me very uneasy.  Really, only in the last three seasons has he been a productive everyday player.

Many, many players have produced like Werth has over a three-year period only to fall into rapid decline.  Here's just a few outfielders from recent memory: Brad Hawpe, Ray Lankford, Andy Van Slyke, Brian Jordan, Cliff Floyd, and, of course, Alfonso Soriano.  Like most of these players, Werth has benefitted during his prime years from hitting in the midst of a very potent lineup and in a very friendly confines.  Never before has he been asked to carry a load on offense like the one he'll be expected to carry in Washington, where Ryan Zimmerman is the only other All-Star quality player in the lineup.

One thing I will say for Werth.  Unlike Soriano, he has excellent command of the strikezone.  He draws walks and is consistently among the league leaders in pitches per plate appearance.  This skill, unlike speed and power, is one that traditionally ages fairly well.  That aside, however, I fear Werth will be an albatross around the neck of the Nationals, a franchise that can ill afford to miss on a their nine-figure investments.

Crawford, on the other hand, though he is far more of a free-swinger, could be the first Hundred Million Dollar Outfielder since Manny Ramirez ('01-'08 edition) to earn every cent of his contract.  Even if his speed declines (which it almost certainly will, at least to some extent), his all-field approach, high averages, and stellar defense in left field should be enough to make him a productive top of the order hitter even in the waning years, and he's likely an MVP candidate for at least two or three seasons to come.

Are the Nationals fooling anybody?

In the wake of Stephen Strasburg's latest round of dominance - he's allowed one lonely single in twelve innings at AAA - it may be time for the Nationals to reevaluate their course of action.  When Washington send him down at the beginning of the season, they insisted it has nothing to do with his arbitration clock.  They wanted him to develop his arm strength in low-pressure situations.  They wanted him to work on a third pitch, his changeup, which had been utterly irrelevant during his college career.  And they wanted him to increase the speed of his delivery in the stretch and work on holding runners.

At this point, however, one has to wonder whether there is any utility for Strasburg pitching in the minors.  Assuming he's throwing his changeup consistently - and the scouts say that he is - it must be working pretty well, because he's got 40 strikeouts in 34 innings.  Presumably, they aren't too worried about developing his arm strength any further, considering they're pulling him after six innings, even when he has a no-hitter going.  And it's damned hard for him to work on holding runners when he's only allowing about three per start.

Strasburg's given up only one extra-base hit (a double) and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4-to-1.  I'm certainly not ready to argue that he'll immediately dominate the National League the way he's dominated the Eastern and International Leagues, but I just don't see how we can call what he's doing at AAA "development."  Pitchers "develop" by working out of jams, by responding to adversity, by facing hitters who are capable of beating them when they make even the slightest mistake, perhaps even when they don't.  None of those things are happening in Syracuse.

So, at this point, the only logical reason for Strasburg remaining in the minors is fiscal.  Don't get me wrong: that's a good reason!  The Nationals are not a probably not a contending team this season, despite their respectable record thusfar, and, learning from the Rays, Rangers, and Rockies, they are no doubt aware that team with their budget cannot make fly-by-night promotional decisions.  As soon as the Nationals are comfortable that Strasburg won't be making Super Two status, he'll be in the big leagues.  But for fans, both in Washington and across the country, that's really not soon enough.

What I see here is a problem that's going to need to be addressed at the next round of collective bargaining.  The Super Two rule was clearly put into effect in order to get more players to the arbitration earlier in their careers.  But one has to question at this point whether it is having that effect.  More and more teams delay the arrival of top prospects in order to get an extra four months of cheap labor.  Sure, the Cubs, who constantly throw money at their problems, can afford to promote Starlin Castro in May.  And the Rangers, seeing a division title very much in their grasps, are willing to bring Justin Smoak to the majors in April, future costs be damned.  In recent memory, however, there are a number of instances when a late promotion damaged a team's shot at contention.

For instance...

Stephen Strasburg v. Aroldis Chapman

Whether fairly or not, these phenoms are going to be inextricably linked, at least for the next couple years, if not for the entirety of their careers.  For starters, both were born in 1988.  Both rose to notoriety more than a year before they signed major-league contracts: Chapman as an enigma in Cuba's bullpen during the '09 WBC and Strasburg as an absolutely unhittable Ace during his final two seasons playing for Tony Gwynn's team at San Diego State.

They ascended into the public consciousness for much the same reason.  They both are capable of not only touching triple digits on the radar gun, an ability that sends tingles down the spine of the most jaded baseball men, but appear to be able to live there for innings at a time on their best days.  Justin Verlander and Ubaldo Jimenez are the only starting pitchers currently in the major leagues who climb into that range even occasionally, and the ability to do it consistently was the exclusive territory of Joel Zumaya in 2009.

This ability to light up the radar gun, combined with the impression that both have excellent pitches with which to balance the dominating fastball, led both to enter unprecedented contractual territory.  The Nationals took Strasburg with the #1 pick in '09 and will pay him $15 Million over the next four seasons.  The biggest contract ever extended to an American amateur player.  A few months later Chapman set a new precedent for amateur internationals by signing a six-year, $30 Million deal with the Reds.

Naturally, as both have joined franchises who have almost nothing to show for the last decade, fans of the Reds and Nats are clamoring to see these wunderkinds pitch.  And so far this spring, neither has disappointed.  Chapman has yet to allow a run in two outings.  He's thrown four innings, struck out five, and allowed three hits and a walk.  He has, as promised, had several 100 MPH deliveries.  Strasburg, also, has not yet allowed a run, striking out four and walking one in five innings of work.

The immediate future, however, seems set in stone for Stephen Strasburg.  He will make one or two more starts before being optioned to the minor-leagues, where, depending on how he fairs, he will remain until at least June, so that the Nationals can set his arbitration clock back a year.  Although it's may be a disappointment to Washington fans, and baseball fans generally, it's a savvy move.

The Nats aren't going anywhere in 2010.  They play in a division which includes their league's reigning behemoth, the Phillies, as well as three other teams with aspirations of contending (whether realistic or not).  Two of Washington's most promising young pitchers, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler, are out for at least the first half of the season, as is their promising young backstop, Jesus Flores.  The Nats know that Strasburg, so long as he stays healthy, will be part of their rotation for many years to come.  They aren't so sure about guys like Scott Olsen, Craig Stammen, J. D. Martin, and Garrett Mock.  Now is good time to see what those fellows can do.

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds have reason to believe that their time is now.  They went 27-13 down the stretch in 2009.  On paper at least, they match up fairly well with all three of the teams the finished ahead of them in 2009.  Their manager, Dusty Baker, is in the final year of his contract, at the beginning of which he promised to end Cincinnati's playoff drought, dating back to 1995.  If he wants to be rehired in 2011, he'll need to at least deliver the club's first winning season since 2000.

There is no tangential benefit to leaving Chapman behind at the start of the season, if he seems ready.  The other options for the rotation, Justin Lehr and Micah Owings, are veteran players who have had several seasons in the major-leagues already.  There is almost no chance they will be anything better than replacement-level starters.  Also, because of how Chapman's contract is structured, the Reds have already bought out most of his arbitration years, so their isn't any financial incentive to keeping him in the minor leagues for an extra couple months.  If they believe he's ready (and indications so far are that he is), he should be their fifth starter.    

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Roy Halladay Is Gonna Love the National League (NL East Preview)

It's almost too obvious predicting that Roy Halladay will become the fourth pitcher in baseball history to win a Cy Young in both leagues (following in the footsteps of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Roger Clemens).  Last year he had a 0.90 ERA in interleague play.  For his career he's 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA against NL teams, 8-4 against clubs in the NL East.  As good as he was against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in '09 (6-7, 2.97 ERA), he was even better against everybody else (11-3, 2.62 ERA).  He's a pitcher perfectly primed for a career year.  He's at the tail end of his prime (33), widely considered among the smartest pitchers in the game, facing a league that's unfamiliar with him, pitching in front of a very good defense for a team that scores a ton of runs, and is determined to go to his first postseason ever.  It would seem, certainly, that the stars are aligned.

Halladay's run at history aside, the Phillies look to me like the only truly easy pick in baseball.  This can certainly be a jinx.  Last year the Cubs looked like runaway favorites in the NL Central.  A couple years ago pretty much everybody thought the Tigers would storm their way through a weak AL Central.  The Phillies will half to fight off complacency following two straight pennants, and Halladay's determination to pitch in October should help a great deal.

Offseason Prospectus #15: The Washington Nationals

Bud Selig was so sure about moving the Expos out of Montreal. He was so sure that he forcefully promoted the relocation and even contraction for years, despite protests from fans and the players union, dissent from other teams and MLB executives, and even massive lawsuits, some which charged him with racketeering. In an unprecedented and ethically dubious arrangement, MLB actually owned and operated the Expos for three seasons from 2002 until 2004, after which they became the Washington Nationals. In Washington, where there would soon be a new stadium (opened in 2008), Selig assured us that the franchise would become popular, competitive, and profitable.

2009, the fifth full season of Washington Nationals baseball, was the worst yet. Not only did the Nats post their worst winning percentage (.364) since moving to D.C., it was the franchises worst performance since 1976. And the putrid on-field performance paled in comparison to the shenanigans of the front office. Before the season even began a scandal with there South American scouting led to a host of firings and the resignation of the General Manager. At midseason, the Nats also fired their field manager, Manny Acta, who has since signed on to manage the Cleveland Indians. Frustration with the direction of the team caused an alarming rate of fan attrition, as attendance dropped to its lowest rate ever. Only 1.8 million fans paid for Nats tickets in 2009, that's over a million less than in their first season of existence. On one particularly sad day in early June, Randy Johnson picked up his 300th win in front of a crowd so small that the Nationals refused to release the attendance figures. This, my friends, is not a franchise headed in the right direction.

Free Agents:

Livan Hernandez (35) RHSP

Mike MacDougal (33) RHRP

Austin Kearns (30) RF

Saul Rivera (32) RHRP

Ron Villone (40) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jason Bergmann (28) RHSP

Sean Burnett (27) RHRP

Jesus Flores (25) C

Wil Nieves (32) C

Scott Olsen (26) LHSP

Josh Willingham (31) LF

ETA 2010?:

Ian Desmond (24) SS

Justin Maxwell (26) OF

Stephen Strasburg (21) RHSP

Drew Storen (22) RHRP

Aaron Thompson (23) LHSP

Despite having one of the worst overall seasons in the franchise's history, there was one bright spot in 2009. Washington had earned the #1 pick in the June draft. With it, they selected what many believe to be the best pitching prospect of all time, the triple-digit phenom from San Diego State, Stephen Strasburg. Most scouts believe Strasburg is ready to pitch in the majors immediately. The fan base could use the thrill of seeing a massive talent every fifth game, but the Nats may choose to be cautious and slow his movement towards free agency by keeping him in the minors for a least a couple months (as the Rays did with Evan Longoria in '08 and Orioles did with Matt Wieters last season).

For much of the Nationals existence they have had to field a rotation of cast-offs and also-rans, relying heavily on guys like Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, and Tim Redding, pitchers who epitomize the AAAA player. Thankfully, after a number of high draft picks, the Nationals are ready to field a rotation with a lot of talent, though not a lot of experience. Strasburg (21) heads a group of freshman and sophomores which also includes Jordan Zimmerman (24), Ross Detwiler (24), Shairon Martis (23), Craig Stammen (25), and Aaron Thompson (23). All of these pitchers have the talent to become quality starters. It may not happen in 2010, but at least the potential is there and Nats fans can indulge a little hope every time out.

The veteran leadership will be provided by John Lannan (only 25), Scott Olsen (only 26), and recent, somewhat inexplicable free agent signing, Jason Marquis (31). What Marquis possesses is a rubber arm. He hardly every misses a start and he'll keep his team within striking distance for six innings a start. When the rest of the staff, including the bullpen, is young, such durability and consistency is valuable, even if the quality is, at best, league average. Lannan, on the other hand, is among the most unsung pitchers in the game. In two full seasons he has made 64 starts and posted a 3.89 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, very quality production for a player who just turned 25 and plays for a decrepit franchise. His upside is Mark Buehrle-esque.

The Nationals bullpen became a running joke during the first half of 2009, and it was one of the main reasons Manny Acta got himself fired. The Nats converted only 57% of their save opportunities in 'o9 (worst in MLB), and that number was even lower before they acquired Mike MacDougal, who went 20 for 21 from June 17 to the end of the season. They were also last in the majors in bullpen ERA (5.09). So, it makes sense that they performed a full overhaul, trading, releasing, or not re-signing eight players who pitched 25 or more relief innings in '09, including MacDougal. The question now is, who's going to eat those innings.

The Nats signed Matt Capps, presumably to close, but though he is younger and has more upside than MacDougal, he is also more expensive and was among the least efficient closers in all of baseball for Pittsburgh last year. Washington also added Doug Slaten and Brian Bruney to fill out the bullpen corps (and will have a look a Eddie Guardado during Spring Training), but will probably rely most heavily on the development of Tyler Clippard (2.69 ERA, 67 K in 60 IP in '09), Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, and their "other" 2009 first-rounder, Drew Storen.

Washington actually outscored traditional powerhouses like the Mets, Cubs, and Astros in '09, finishing in the middle of the pack in the NL. Adam Dunn did what he was paid to do, crushing 38 HR and driving in 105 runs. Ryan Zimmerman benefitted greatly from the improved protection, and at 24 posted his biggest season to date (.292, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 110 R, 888 OPS). Additionally, the Nats had to be pleasantly surprised by the production of Josh Willingham (24 HR, 863 OPS) and Nyjer Morgan (.369 OBP, 42 SB). If the Nats are to take a step forward offensively in '10, they will need those four to hold steady, and they will need improved production from Elijah Dukes and whoever is playing second base. It is unclear whether Washington has any more money to spend, but if they do, they could be bidders on the remaining middle-infielders, guys like Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, and Kelly Johnson. Or, more likely, they could go after a utilityman, perhaps Chad Tracy, Jerry Hairston, or Adam Kennedy.

The signing of Marquis and Capps surprised pundits this winter, but the biggest surprise was the signing of 38-year-old legendary backstop, Pudge Rodriguez, to a two-year, $6 Million contract. Pudge's numbers have been in consistent decline since 2006, which isn't surprising, considering his age and the toll of his position. In '09 he managed just a 663 OPS, but he still manages the running game (35% CS in '09) and handles the pitching staff. The logic of this signing will come down to how the Nats use him. If he is primarily Jesus Flores' backup, tutoring a youngster who is, at 25, one of the better young catching prospects in the game (he posted an 877 OPS in limited action in '09), than the signing makes a lot of sense. If Pudge cuts into Flores' development by demanding the bulk of the playing time, than his presence is counterproductive.

I think that the Washington faithful can look forward to small step in the right direction in 2010, but the Nats are a long way from flowering the way that Tampa Bay has in recent years. They have accumulated a nice selection of pitching prospects, but they need to promote their offense as well. Next offseason will be critical, as Adam Dunn and Christian Guzman will enter free agency, freeing up a lot of cash. What the front office does with it may determine whether the Nats head towards becoming the Rays or the Royals.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Nyjer Morgan (L)

SS Christian Guzman (S)

3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

1B Adam Dunn (L)

LF Josh Willingham (R)

RF Elijah Dukes (R)

C Jesus Flores (R)

2B Willie Harris (R)

SP John Lannan (L)

SP Scott Olsen (L)

SP Jason Marquis (R)

SP Stephen Strasburg (R)

SP Jordan Zimmerman (R)

CL Matt Capps (R)

SU Tyler Clippard (R)

SU Drew Storen (R)

MR Brian Bruney (R)

MR Sean Burnett (L)

LOOGY Doug Slaten (L)

MOP Jason Bergmann (R)

C Ivan Rodriguez (R)

2B/SS Alberto Gonzalez (R)

2B/3B Adam Kennedy (L) FA

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

OF Justin Maxwell (R)

The worst team in baseball? My answer might surprise you.

Almost from the moment they came into existence five seasons ago, the Washington Nationals have been a baseball punchline. And, again this season, they possess, predictably, the worst record in baseball. There isn't a lot for the Nats management to hang their hats on. After all, they began the season with a South American scouting scandal which eventually led to the resignation of their general manager and have since seen the demotion and/or trading of three of the "budding stars" they had designed their 2009 advertising around: Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Joel Hanrahan. However, it hasn't been all bad. The Washington offense, led by Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, and Christian Guzman, is 9th in the NL in runs scored (it would be their highest finish ever) and 5th in OPS. For the most part their pitching has been atrocious, but "Ace" John Lannan has proven himself to be more than a fluke, going 6-5 with an excellent 3.49 ERA. And rookie Jordan Zimmerman is looking like a solid major-league pitcher as well. Since the beginning of June he is 1-1, but with a 2.41 ERA and 31 K in 33 IP. They will presumably soon be joined by the #1 pick, maybe the most-touted pitching prospect ever, Stephen Strasburg, as well as some combination of other recent top prospects Sharon Martis, Scott Olsen, and Ross Detwiler, each of whom has shown flashes of brilliance (and a considerable amount of mediocrity) during their limited stints so far in 2009. In other words, the Nats might accurately be conceived of as a franchise on the rise...headed in the right direction.

The San Diego Padres, however, are in quite the opposite position. In the middle of May, with Jake Peavy still healthy and Adrian Gonzalez streaking, the Padres put together a highly unexpected 10-game winning streak, climbing back to .500 in the process, since then they have been the worst team in the sport, going 12-27 (.307). Peavy was lost, probably for the season. And, the league having realized the Padres hadn't a single other hitter worth being afraid of, stopped pitching to Gonzalez. On May 16 he was hitting .302 with 15 HR and 29 RBI, since then he is hitting .214 with 9 HR and 23 RBI.

The Padres don't have a single regular (200+ AB) with a batting average above .267 (David Eckstein). Their .236 team average, if it persists (and there's no reason to think it won't, since their best months are probably already behind them), would be the worst registered by a major league franchise since the 1992 New York Mets (.235). The just traded their second-best hitter, Scott Hairston, to the Athletics for some mediocre pitching prospects and rumors swirl around that veterans who have any value at all, guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff and David Eckstein may soon follow. Gonzalez, who is signed through 2011 at a reasonable price and is a fan favorite due in part to his Mexican heritage (San Diego, of course, has a sizable Mexican-American community), is probably the only player who is off-limits...and maybe not even him.

San Diego's management realizes that as poor as the product they are putting on the field currently is, it may get even worse. The Padres' farm system was ranked 29th (out of 30) prior to the season by Baseball America and their #1 pick (#3 overall) was a "toolsy" teenage outfielder, who can't be project to join the big-league roster for at least three or four seasons. The Padres had hoped to re-stock by dealing Peavy at the deadline, but he's all but worthless now until he proves himself fully healthy. It's going to be a rough few seasons for San Diego fans, who may see more than they would like of Everth Cabrera, Will Venable, and Jody Gerut.