South Afri...er...America (World Cup Quarterfinals Primer)

What is it that they say about "best laid plans"?  The FIFA selection committee put together a bracket which was designed to the benefit of underdogs, particularly African underdogs, but as we enter the quarterfinals, five of the top seven teams in the world are still kicking, with #3 Portugal and #8 England only knocked out by virtue of second round matchups with #2 Spain and #6 Germany.  

There is good news for FIFA, however, at the expense of Americans.  Even though only one African team got through, Ghana has managed to advance to the final eight.  They were the second-lowest ranked African side at #32 and they are the lowest ranked team among the remaining participants, but they have looked much better than that ranking indicates.  They beat a highly regarded Serbian side during the group stage, a Serbian side who went on to upset the Germans.  Then they played an outstanding game against Germany themselves.  Even though it ended in defeat, Ghana threatened to take the group outright, as they held the imposing German team to one goal, midway through the second half, and actually exceeded them in shots and were nearly their equals in time of possession.

In retrospect, based on the level of competition they'd faced and how they fared against that competition, Ghana was probably the favorite entering their first knockout game against the U.S.  It was an exciting affair, and Ghana's tremendous fitness and their "home"-field advantage were probably the deciding factors, as they brought significantly more energy and hunger to the extra time.  

They will again wear the underdog label against Uruguay, but again, it might be misleading.  Uruguay has dominated their competition thusfar, but they've had, undeniably, the easiest path to the quarterfinals, as the top rated team in their group, France, essentially boycotted this World Cup, playing half-speed at best, and the South Koreans, though gutsy, were pretty clearly among the weakest teams to advance to the knockout stage.  

Ghana will need to contain the impressive Uruguayan tandem of Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez.  The Ghanese backline, particularly Hans Sarpei and John Pantsil, have looked very strong.  They will be the most tenacious and athletic tacklers that Forlan and Suerez have seen.  The key, to me, is that Kevin-Prince Boateng, who has been among the most impressive players in this World Cup, continues to create opportunities for himself and others.  If Ghana maintains a sizable share of possession and scoring chances, it will be because of his ability to draw a crowd of Uruguayan defenders.  If Ghana makes the semi-finals, which I think is a strong possibility, this World Cup should be considered a massive success for African soccer, despite the unfortunate early bow-outs by Cameroon, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast.

The most interesting quarterfinal match promises to be Germany and Argentina.  Look for it to be an aggressive, even dirty game, as both teams have that propensity, and many of these players remember the tumultuous showdown from 2006, which ended in penalty kicks.

Finally, here a few relatively unheralded players to watch:

Sergio Ramos - Right Back - Spain

Ramos, who plays his club soccer with Real Madrid, is pretty close to a household name.  Along with Maicon (Brazil) and Dani Alves (Brazil), he is generally considered among the best outside backs in the world.  However, as he did during Spain's 2008 Euro Cup championship, Ramos has raised his already high standard of play to yet another level.  He arguably did more to trouble the vaunted Portugese defense than even David Villa did.  His fleet and fancy runs down the side and into the corner often force two and even three opposing players to move from in front of goal, opening space for the likes of Villa, Iniesta, and Xavi.  That, and he usually eliminates the viability of one of the opposing forwards (see Ronaldo, Cristiano).

Martin Demichelis & Jonas Gutierrez - Defenders - Argentina

As it turns out, Diego Maradona, for all his eccentricity, knows a hell of a lot about soccer.  He took loads of flak for choosing these two backs over players of greater international renown, but thusfar Argentina has conceded only two goals, and both came when the games were already well in hand.  The truth is, they will be tested by Germany, among the most lethal scoring sides in the Cup, but these two impressive physical specimens will likely set the tone for the match.  They are extremely big and extremely fast.  Don't be surprised, also, if Germany's slender forwards, Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski, to have the "fear of God" put in them in the form of exploratory fouls in the early going.  Argentina has a deep bench.  If they suffer a yellow card, they can easily replace that player to prevent the going down a man.  Don't think Maradona is above such tactics.

Lucas Barrios - Left Forward - Paraguay

This Argentinean turned Paraguayan is clearly the straw that stirs the drink for his team and will undoubtedly be moving to a more notable club in the very near future.  He's got a vicious right foot, tremendous aerial game, and a "nose for goal," which essentially means he seems to be in the right place at the right time and never gives up on a play.  His major disadvantage is that in the upcoming matchup with Spain he can expect to become very familiar with the 6'4", 200 lb. tandem of Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique.  Um...sorry, Lucas.  It will be a handsome sandwich.

World Cup Bracketology

In my World Cup primer a couple weeks ago, I predicted that the peculiarities of the draw could favor the African squads and result in a situation where many of the top Europeans squads were lined up on one side of the bracket.  It appears I will only be half-right.

The first World Cup in Africa has actually been a showcase for the western hemisphere.  Teams from the Americas are likely going six for six in terms of advancement (Chile currently leads group H, but could still in danger).  Brazil and Argentina lived up to, perhaps even exceeded, high expectations, while Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay surged unexpectedly to the top of their groups.

Europe, on the other hand, has seen two of its top teams sent packing, as the '06 finalists, France and Italy, both failed to make it past the group stage.  England and Germany needed wins in their finals games in order to avoid joining them, as does #2 ranked Spain, who faces off with a very tough Chilean side on Friday.

Though I would still contend FIFA had the best of intentions, it was to no avail, as it appears only one African side, Ghana, will advance past the group stage.  Nigerian striker Yakubu Aiyegbeni can look forward to a lifetime of nightmares after missing an wide open net from two yards out against South Korea (in one of the best matches of the tournament thusfar).  A simple straight-forward strike could have assured Nigeria a spot in the knockout round.  The host nation also played admirably, but trailed Mexico slightly on goal differential.  Cameroon, Africa's top-ranked side, was the first team eliminated, a massive disappointment, only overshadowed by the pathetic performance of the French.  Ivory Coast has not yet been officially eliminated, but they will need a huge win over North Korea and some help from Brazil to catch the Portugese.

Africa now pins all their hopes on Ghana, who will face the U.S. in the first game of the second-round.  The knockout draw, now more than half set, is looking quite uneven.  The winner of U.S. v. Ghana faces the winner of Uruguay v. South Korea, assuring that at least one "underdog" will make it to the semi-finals.  The United States are the top-rated team in their quadrant (#14 according to FIFA).  They have not made the semi-finals since 1930, and have never advanced to the finals.  Ghana has never won a knockout game, having passed the group stage for the first time in 2006.  South Korea made the semis in '02 on their home turf, but this is only their second trip to the knockout round.  Uruguay are former champions, but they haven't made a semi-final since 1970.

By contrast, England's quadrant features three teams ranked in FIFA's top ten, two of which must be considered among the overall favorites.  So far, Diego Maradona has made his critics look rather silly.  His controversial selections, including 35-year-old Juan Veron and converted defender Jonas Gutierrez, have played extraordinarily well.  Argentina is currently the only team with three wins (Brazil and Chile could join them tomorrow) and are the tournament's leading scorers.  Both Germany and England were given wake-up calls in the group stage, as Germany dropped a game to the Serbs and England tallied draws against both the Americans and Algerians.  The chalk certainly favors a showdown of Argentina and Germany, countries with a long history of World Cup rivalry, most recently a quarterfinal showdown in 2006 that was decided on penalty kicks.

Tomorrow's games could easily result in an even more spectacularly lethal "quadrant of death."  Based on the current standings, Brazil (#1), Spain (#2), and the Netherlands (#4) would join Slovakia (#34).  The two incoming favorites, Brazil and Spain, would be forced to face each other in the first knockout round.  Spain's best chance of preventing this outcome is handily beating Chile.  Even then, if Portugal (#3) were to upset Brazil, they could still be set up for a showdown.

I, personally, enjoy seeing the powerhouses clash as early as possible.  And, to that extent, this draw has worked out excellently.  The second round will likely feature at two matchups of top-ten teams (Germany v. England and Spain v. Brazil/Portugal).  Although some of the favored darkhorses (Serbia, Ivory Coast, etc.) did not survive, the draw is still set up for a historically deep run by one or more low-seeded teams.  The outcome of the USA/Ghana game will yield one such team, while Paraguay and Chile have favorable positions on the opposite side of the bracket.

Hippeaux's World Cup Primer

My baseball updates may be slightly less frequent in the coming month, in part because much of my attention will be turned to the World Cup.  I don't possess the same encyclopedic knowledge of soccer that I do of baseball, but during the long winter months, my sporting spectatorship is dominated by watching La Liga, the EPL, and Champions League.  So, based on what I do know, here are my power rankings and some general observations about this historic tournament.

1. Spain: The Spanish squad, winners of the Euro Cup in 2008, looks a great deal like an All-Star team, almost entirely composed of starters from the top clubs in Europe.  In a tune-up with Poland recently, they showed that despite the fact that they haven't been playing together consistently for the past six months, these players are capable of incredibly creative and unselfish play.  There is no apparent weakness on the Spanish squad, as they feature incredibly tough, physical defenders (Puyol, Sergio Ramos); tireless, ball-controlling midfielders (Iniesta, Xavi, Cesc Fabregas); and two premiers strikers, Fernando Torres (18 goals for Liverpool in '09-'10) and David Villa (21 goals for Valencia).
2. Brazil:  The fact that Brazil's manager, Dunga, left the legendary Ronaldinho off the 2010 roster, despite a solid campaign for AC Milan, give you a sense of the depth and quality of the Brazil side.  Similarly, there is a good chance that Barca defender, Dani Alves, considered by many to be one of the best defenders in the world, may be played out of position or used as a substitute, because Brazil is also home to Maicon, likewise considered.  Because of his controversial selections and lineups, and Brazil's uncharacteristically early exit in 2006, this tournament puts a great deal of pressure on Dunga.  Although they are natural favorites, Brazil's draw was not an easy one.  The "group of death" features Portugal and Ivory Coast.  
3. Argentina:  They have many doubters, due mainly to the eccentricity of their manager, Diego Maradona, but they also have the world's best player, Lionel Messi, and the deepest selection of proven scorers of any team in the World Cup.  Messi (Barcelona), Carlos Tevez (Manchester City), Gonzalo Hiquain (Real Madrid), and Diego Milito (Inter Milan) combined for 143 goals during this past club season.  They will find the back of the net frequently.  Maradona will be challenged to get all of them into the lineup and will face continued questions about whether his team can control the ball enough after he made some very surprising selections in the midfield and defense.
4. Germany:  They don't have as much star-caliber as some of the other contenders, but they have the pedigree and their conservative, physical style is well-suited to international competition.  The major question is where they will get their goals from.  Miroslav Klose is no longer the dominant force he was in '06, and Bastian Schweinsteiger, the hero of Euro 2008, had a disappointed club season.  Captain Michael Ballack was left off the final roster due to injuries.  The team's championship hopes rely heavily on the shoulders of talented, but inconsistent striker, Lukas Podolski.
5. Netherlands:  The Dutch team is as exciting as any in the tournament, featuring a dynamic offensive system which helped them crush stiff competition like France and Italy in the early rounds of the Euro Cup in 2008.  Then they dominated the qualifying campaign and absolutely massacred the friendlies.  This is not a team to be taken lightly.
6. England:  The British will have to overcome adversity, as an ugly story of jealousy and betrayal dominated the headlines for much of the lead-up to the tournament.  They've still got Wayne Rooney, arguably the second-best player in the tournament, and plenty of other talent, but they also have the weight of a curse.  They've made it past the quarterfinals only once since winning the World Cup in 1966.
7. Italy:  The '06 champs have not really been the same since then, having perhaps aged themselves out of top tier of teams.  However, this ruthlessly and brutally competitive side, has a soft draw and something to prove, which could make them dangerous in the knockout round, not necessarily as somebody who could advance to the finals, but as somebody who could upset one of the favorites.
8. Ivory Coast:  The most popular darkhorse through much of the build-up to the tournament was dealt a major blow when the face of African soccer, Didier Drogba, broke his arm in a friendly.  He is still participating, but we won't know until his first match how effective he can be.  If the EPL's leading scorer is up to the challenge, this is a very interesting squad, as they've got speed, athleticism, and several experienced top-flight players.
9. Portugal:  They will play without Nani, the Manchester United winger who provided an experienced compliment to Cristiano Ronaldo, and Pepe's fitness, following a serious knee injury that cost him much of the club season, is still in doubt.  Portugal's misfortune also includes a seat in the "group of death," where they will have to pass either Ivorty Coast or Brazil to even play in the knockout stage.  However, they have one of the world's most talented strikers and a number of excellent defenders, so no single match is beyond their grasp.  That said, much like Italy, this is probably a potential dragon-slayer, but not a true contender.
10. Nigeria: Sometimes success in this tournament is all about the draw.  Generally, squads from the host continent do well, and Nigeria is one of those with "home"-field advantage.  Also, possessing lots of quality players, but no true star, they haven't gotten the same attention as Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Ghana, and thus perhaps have less pressure and more Cinderella charm.  Most importantly, however, they have a relatively soft draw.  If the tournament were to play out according to the Vegas chalk, Nigeria would finish second to Argentina in Group B and their path to the semi-finals would likely be through Serbia, Mexico, and the USA.  None of these teams are patsies, certainly, but none of them are powerhouses either.   

The draw is, in fact, one of the most interesting parts of World Cup prediction.  Let's imagine that the "group of death" turns out some interesting results.  Perhaps Brazil gets upset by either Ivory Coast or Portugal, or manages only to tie with both of them.  If that were to happen (well within the realm of possibility), they might finish second in the group, which would result (probably) in a second round match-up with co-favorite Spain.  

In fact, there is a fairly strong chance that all of the dominant European and South American teams could end up on one side of the bracket.  The only upsets necessary for this outcome are to Brazil and England.  Assuming those two teams finished second in their groups, one side of the bracket would feature Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, England, Italy, and France (or, perhaps, Urugauy), while the other side would feature the likes of Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Cameroon, Mexico, Serbia, Chile, and USA, assuring that a darkhorse (quite possibly one from the host continent) would make it to the finals.  

From my perspective, this possibility makes the USA v. England game on Saturday all the more interesting.  Were the United States to win, it helps to set up this contingency.