My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...

NL East:

Thanks in large part to the foresight and creativity of a front office led by CEO David Montgomery, former GM and advisor Pat Gillick, and current GM Ruben Amaro, the Phillies have been to the playoffs in four straight years and, following an offseason which featured the surprise return of Cliff Lee, they are the prohibitive favorites in the National League once again.

However, they've had a rough spring.  First, they lost the services of their promising rookie outfielder, Dominic Brown, to a wrist injury which will probably cost him at least half the season.  Also, their brittle closer, Brad Lidge, has been sidelined for at least a few weeks.  And, most importantly, the team's best hitter and defensive whiz, Chase Utley, is beleaguered by an injury for which there is, at this point, neither a confident diagnosis or a timetable for return, fueling speculation that the five-time All-Star may be out for the season, if not longer.

With Jayson Werth, the Phillies most productive hitter in 2010, now playing for a division rival, there are now some gaping holes in Philadelphia's lineup, which not so long ago was the best in all of baseball.  They opened their season yesterday with Jimmy Rollins and his 737 OPS since 2007 hitting third, while the 38-year-old Raul Ibanez provided protection for Ryan Howard.

But, while the Phillies offense may be a shadow of its former glory, the rotation is being heralded as one of the greatest ever.  That may be presumptuous, but the Phillies do have a quartet of Aces and arguably the two best starting pitchers in the game, Lee and Roy Halladay.  Teams like San Francisco and San Diego proved only a year ago that a deep, dominating rotation can take you a long way, especially in the National League.  And, despite its growing flaws, nobody's comparing the Phillies lineup to the Padres.

The Braves, who eeked into the playoffs as a Wild Card last season, have been a somewhat popular pick this preseason to upset Philadelphia.  Their viability depends upon the progress of some very young players on whom they are depending heavily: Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor.  Although I'm willing to admit this is a frightening collection of talent, I'm not sure we can expect it to avoid the inconsistency which is generally expected from young cores.  If they are to do so, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Nate McClouth will need to be healthy and productive...

I would, in fact, observe that the Florida Marlins are a team composed very similarly to the Braves.  They've got tons of talent on both sides of the ball, but much of it is not yet established at the major-league level.  What the Marlins have that the Braves do not is a proven stud in his prime hitting in the middle of the lineup.  I think this gives them a minor advantage, although I could see either team winning anywhere from 75 to 95 games with a few good breaks.

Philadelphia Phillies 91 W
Florida Marlins 86 W
Atlanta Braves 85 W
Washington Nationals 66 W
New York Mets 62 W

MVP Candidate: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
Cy Young Candidate: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Braves
Comeback of the Year: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
Breakout Candidates: Logan Morrison, Marlins; Anibal Sanchez, Marlins; Ian Desmond, Nationals

NL Central:

The Brewers are a "wild card" team in every sense of the word.  They have an extremely high Narrative Likability Factor (for me, they are this year's version of the 2010 Rangers).

In last year's preview of the NL Central there were a few predictions on which I can hang my hat.  First, while everybody else was picking the Cardinals to run away with the title, I noted that they were "not as complete as some would have you believe," lacked "a whole lot of compensatory depth," and that "the Cardinals lineup looks a little tepid."  Correct on all counts.  Thank you.

I also noted that "the real Wild Card here is the Cincinnati Reds" and that "they could become an NL version of the '08 Rays."  Again, not terribly far off.

Unfortunately, the team I expected to outperform both the Cardinals and the Reds was the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished back of both, in third place.

The Brewers major problem was a familiar one: starting pitching.  They addressed it in a major way this offseason by trading for both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.  As I wrote a few months back, these trades signal Doug Melvin's intention to "go for it" after nearly a decade of patient building.  Melvin mortgaged the farm for two front-line starters to slot in between Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf.  Next offseason he faces the possibility of losing two of his offensive lynchpins, Prince Fielder and Corey Hart, potentially pressing the reset button on all his work and progressively raised expectations.  To retain his job, I think Melvin needs a playoff appearance, at the very least.  

Surmounting Cincinnati is, however, no mean task.  The Reds were the NL's offensive powerhouse in 2010.  There's no obvious reason why that should change.  In addition, they seem to have an army of high-upside young pitchers.  This is a team built to win not only now, but for many years to come.  The Reds have pretty much their entire roster under control for at least the next two seasons, with several key players wrapped up into the middle of the decade.

Cincinnati Reds 97 W

Milwaukee Brewers 93 W

Chicago Cubs 82 W

St. Louis Cardinals 74 W

Pittsburgh Pirates 70 W

Houston Astros 63 W

MVP Candidate: Prince Fielder, Brewers & Ryan Braun, Brewers

Cy Young Candidate: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

Rookie of the Year: Aroldis Chapman, Reds

Comeback of the Year: Carlos Zambrano, Cubs

Breakout Candidates: Jay Bruce, Reds; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Colby Rasmus, Cardinals

NL West:

From my perspective, this is the toughest division to call in 2011.  It's hard to argue with the reigning World Series Champs, who have a dynamic young core and the potential to get better via the resurgence of Pablo Sandoval and the ascendence of Brandon Belt.

That said, we should remember that prior to 2010, this division was considered a two horse race between the Rockies and the Dodgers.  Each of those teams also possesses an impressive stable of young talent entering their primes.  As such, the NL West features three teams with established identities, but who still have plenty of upside and who are hungry to prove themselves.  The Giants will have a hard time shaking the label of "fluke," given their status as an extreme underdog going into the 2010 playoffs.  The Dodgers, after getting to the NLCS two years in a row with basically the same team, are eager to shake off the bad taste of 2010, only their second losing season in the last 11 years, during which the McCourt Divorce dominated the headlines.  And the Rockies, who always play with a chip on their shoulders, feel as though they have the makings of a dynasty, having locked up Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jimenez through at least 2014.  

Whatever I choose, I feel I've got a strong chance of being wrong.

Colorado Rockies 93 W

Los Angeles Dodgers 90 W

San Francisco Giants 87 W

Arizona D-Backs 76 W

San Diego Padres 63 W

MVP Candidate: Justin Upton, D-Backs

Cy Young Candidate: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt, Giants

Comeback of the Year: Pablo Sandoval, Giants

Breakout Candidates: Ian Kennedy, D-Backs; Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, Rockies; Brandon Allen, D-Backs

Ugh La La...

The trading season got kick-started this week when the Florida Marlins, baseball's current leader in unabashed greed, sent Dan Uggla to their NL East rival, the Atlanta Braves, for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn.  Uggla's name has been circling the rumor mill for well over a year, so nobody should've been surprised that the Marlins eventually pulled the trigger.  Bu, many were critical of what they got in return: a utility infielder coming off a career year and a rookie reliever who probably profiles as a LOOGY.

Uggla, I grant, is a likable, somewhat under-the-radar run producer.  In five seasons he's been utterly consistent - 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank.  And he plays a position, second base, that isn't replete with power-hitters.  Since integration (1947), only two second-basemen have had more homers than him at his age: Alfonso Soriano and Ryne Sandberg.

That said, like Soriano, he doesn't play the middle infield very well and is likely headed for a position switch.  His UZR in 2010 was -7.4.  Only Skip Schumaker, the converted outfielder, was worse among National Leaguers.  Uggla has been consistently near the bottom of the league in every defensive metric ever since his rookie year.  It seems fairly certain that sooner or later, perhaps as soon as next season, Uggla will be moved to a corner position, where his offensive numbers, while still solid, will no longer dramatically separate him from his peers.

Uggla is potentially a pretty one-dimensional hitter.  His .287 average in 2010 was a career high, as was his .369 OBP.  He doesn't steal bases.  He strikes out a ton.  What he does well, however, is hit homers and he sees lots of pitches.  Both things the Braves desperately need.  Uggla's 4.20 PPA was good for eleventh in baseball in 2010.  That, as much as his power, may explain the Braves interest.  Among their regulars, only Derrek Lee and Jason Heyward were particularly patient hitters in 2010, and Lee is headed into free agency.  Paired with Heyward, Brian McCann, and possibly a healthy Chipper Jones, Uggla might help force opposing pitchers to work a little harder than they did this year.

It is quite possible that Uggla's recent campaign represents the furthest extent of his talents.  He'll be 31 before next season begins.  He got a relatively late start, as a 26-year-old rookie.  So, he's got one more year of arbitration, which will probably cost the Braves somewhere in the vicinity of $10 Million.  And he will probably be looking for $10-$15 Million per season for his next contract, which will take him into his late 30s.  Considering his defensive limitations and his age, it will be risky to sign him to a long-term deal, especially if he has another relatively big season in 2011.

The Marlins, to nobody's great surprise, prioritized cheapness.  Omar Infante, like Uggla, is under contract for only one more season, but at about 25% of the cost ($2.5 Million).  He's also two years younger than Uggla.  Mike Dunn is still two full seasons away from being eligible for arbitration and will be 26 when the 2011 season begins.  So, all told, depending upon who Dunn replaces in the Marlins bullpen, they'll be getting somewhere around $7-$10 Million in salary relief.

In terms of overall production, they may not be giving up as much as it initially appears.  Infante's 2010 breakout, which got him elected to the All-Star team, surprised pretty much everybody. But, maybe it shouldn't have.  Between '08 and '09 he hit .298 with a 753 OPS, 69 R, and 67 RBI in roughly a season's worth of at-bats (520).  From that level, it isn't a ridiculous jump for a 28-year-old to hit .321 with a 775 OPS, 65 runs, and 47 RBI in 471 AB.

Even if Infante can maintain his high average (which I doubt, .300 is probably a reasonable expectation), he's still no match for Uggla offensively.  However, Uggla's offensive advantage is balanced to some extent by Infante's advantage on defense, where he is relatively effective and very flexible.  Infante logged innings at five different positions in 2010 and was, at least according to UZR, average or better at four of them.  Such "utility" allowed Infante to log a WAR of 2.7 in 2010.  Uggla has only beat that number twice in his five seasons (including 2010).

Finally, Michael Dunn, I think, is actually the key to this deal.  Since being converted into a reliever, Dunn has raced through the minors, dominating at every step of the way.  And it didn't stop when he was promoted to big leagues during the second half of 2010.  In 19 innings, he posted a 1.89 ERA and 12.8 K/9.  It's a small sample size, but combined with his minor league stats it suggests that he will be an effective lefty middleman immediately and certainly has the stuff to pitch in the late innings eventually, especially if he cuts down on his walks.  Dominant left-handed relievers are a rare breed, which is why guys like Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes are still getting relatively big paycheck in their forties.  Every team needs one and the Marlins may have found theirs on the cheap.

While some have suggested that the Uggla trade is an obviously one-sided payroll dump that potentially upsets the balance in the NL East, I actually think both teams got better with this trade.  The Braves got a middle-of-the-order presence to bolster their mediocre lineup.  It may be exactly what they need to make them a more serious contender next October.  The Marlins got better defensively, as they will be able to slide Chris Coghlan in at second base and use Infante all over the diamond.  They also filled a key role in their bullpen and gave themselves some payroll flexibility.  One could suggest that John Buck got signed with the money the Marlins saved on Dan Uggla.

It bothers me as much as anybody that the Marlins have less than $30 Million in commitments for 2011, even though we're well aware they have at least that much money just from revenue-sharing, but we shouldn't let that prejudice effect our ability to analyze this trade.  The Marlins are parting ways with a player who is getting more expensive, but is likely to be less productive.  They are getting younger, undervalued players in return.  We generally applaud teams like the Rays and Twins for making these types of decisions.

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Roy Halladay Is Gonna Love the National League (NL East Preview)

It's almost too obvious predicting that Roy Halladay will become the fourth pitcher in baseball history to win a Cy Young in both leagues (following in the footsteps of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Roger Clemens).  Last year he had a 0.90 ERA in interleague play.  For his career he's 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA against NL teams, 8-4 against clubs in the NL East.  As good as he was against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in '09 (6-7, 2.97 ERA), he was even better against everybody else (11-3, 2.62 ERA).  He's a pitcher perfectly primed for a career year.  He's at the tail end of his prime (33), widely considered among the smartest pitchers in the game, facing a league that's unfamiliar with him, pitching in front of a very good defense for a team that scores a ton of runs, and is determined to go to his first postseason ever.  It would seem, certainly, that the stars are aligned.

Halladay's run at history aside, the Phillies look to me like the only truly easy pick in baseball.  This can certainly be a jinx.  Last year the Cubs looked like runaway favorites in the NL Central.  A couple years ago pretty much everybody thought the Tigers would storm their way through a weak AL Central.  The Phillies will half to fight off complacency following two straight pennants, and Halladay's determination to pitch in October should help a great deal.

Offseason Prospectus #20: The Florida Marlins

It was an interesting week for the Fish.  First, they got a symbolic tongue-lashing from MLB and the Player's Union for failing to fulfill obligation laid out in the Basic Agreement.  Whether or not the Florida franchise is being thrown under the bus in order to dissuade further and more wide-reaching accusations of collusion remains to be seen, but the Marlins took little time announcing their first concession, signing Josh Johnson to a $39 Million deal, which will take him through his arbitration years and beyond, in 2013.

What's interesting about this revelation is that although Florida's ownership, led by Jeffrey Loria, is certainly guilty of stinginess (in 2006 they fielded a team that made less than $15 Million), they are hardly the only franchise for whom that's the case, and they are among the few that have fielded consistently competitive teams, even with a miniscule payroll.  The Pirates spent only about $6 Million more than the Marlins in '09 and at least ten teams cut there overall expenditures, citing the tough economy, despite no evidence that their specific industry was suffering.  Tampa Bay, Washington, Oakland, Minnesota, and Kansas City are all among the teams which are consistently among baseball's most thrifty franchises.

In a practice typical of the antitrust-exempted MLB, the league has withheld revenue-sharing figures since 2005, perhaps to dissuade widespread rumors that some teams weren't even spending all of the money they took in as their share of the profits from MLB.com, DirecTV, and the new MLB Network.  Bud Selig, of course, would point out that such accusations are without basis, which is convenient, since he's the only one with access to the data, which he refuses to share.  Florida is probably being scapegoated here in order to ameliorate the Union, which is showing the first signs of life since Donald Fehr stepped down last June.  Hopefully they won't be the only ones.

The Gaping Holes

This week I'm taking a look at positions which are, as yet, conspicuously unfilled. This is different from positional battles, in which several players with potential are vying for one slot, such as Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury in Boston or Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson for the Nationals, but spots which are completely lacking viable options. For instance...

Baltimore Orioles - Shortstop

Miguel Tejada, coming off the worst season of his career, his first plagued by injuries, was dealt to the Astros, officially ending the steroid dynasty in Baltimore and starting what promises to be a prolonged rebuilding phase. The problem is that the position in the Orioles' infield occupied by Cal Ripken for a decade and a half (and by Tejada for the past four seasons) has no heir apparent on the horizon. The O's have begun spring training with Luis Hernandez as the frontrunner to man the space on Opening Day, but while Hernandez shows moderate defensive promise, his career OPS in the minors is only 621 and has fallen steadily as he moved up through the system. He would be, undoubtedly, the worst player with a starting position in the major leagues, possibly the worst hitter to make a 25-man roster. However, Baltimore's other options, Brandon Fahey and Freddie Bynum, also have very limited offensive potential and have no business playing shortstop.

So, the question is, will Baltimore essentially concede defeat at a critical position or will they sign or trade for a semi-respectable replacement. Even if they choose the latter, which I assume they will, the options remain limited. The only unsigned free agent middle infielders are Neifi Perez and Tony Graffanino. Perez is in the midst of serving an 80 game suspension for amphetamines and Graffanino is a 36-year-old journeyman who hasn't played more than 22 games at short in any of his twelve big-league seasons. Clearly, neither is a superior option to Hernandez.

The trade market is also bleak, but not as much so. The White Sox, having traded for Orlando Cabrera and signed Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez, would probably part with Juan Uribe for a lukewarm body (preferably one that clocks above 90 MPH). Uribe is certainly no Ripken, as his .235 average over the last two seasons demonstrates, but he has been a starting shortstop for half-a-dozen years, is still in his twenties, hits for power, and plays slightly better than league-average defense. In an infield that includes Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora, Uribe would not stand out as the glaring weakness.

If they want to be more ambitious they could attempt a trade within their division for Boston's Julio Lugo. Lugo was a major disappointment last year after signing a big contract. Boston might be willing to eat a significant portion in order to make room for top prospect Jed Lowrie, the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2007 (this in an organization that boast prospects like Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz). Lugo is 32, only an average defender, and hasn't been any better at the plate than Uribe since he left Tampa Bay at the 2006 trade deadline, but he costs twice as much. Uribe's contract only goes to the end of 2008, but Lugo is signed through 2010. Boston isn't likely to eat enough of that money to make is a wise move for the Orioles.

If Baltimore is willing to deal some of their stockpile of young pitching, they might be able to procure a promising young big-league ready shortstop like the Dodger's Chin-Lung Hu or the Angel's Maicer Izturis, both of whom are blocked with their current organizations, but the asking prices would be very high. Desperation measure might include Clint Barmes, Jack Wilson, or Ronny Cedeno (possibly piece of the rumored trade with the Cubs for Brian Roberts). Whatever the case, I sincerly doubt that the Orioles will take the field April 1 with a shortstop who couldn't hit .250 at AA.

San Diego Padres - Left Field

Unfortunately, I can imagine the Padres beginning the season with some combination of Scott Hairston and Jeff DaVanon in the lineup everyday, even though neither has ever had more than 339 at-bats in a season. In a platoon situation, switch-hitting DaVanon would get the lion's share of starts and Hairston would face lefties, against whom he has a very respectable 812 career OPS (compared to 704 against right-handers). However you look at it, neither player is a legitimate regular, especially on a notoriously low-scoring team which claims to have playoff aspirations coming out of a deep division. To a certain extent it is hard for me to take San Diego seriously, regardless of their left-fielder, with Jim Edmonds and Tadahito Iguchi representing their only offensive upgrades. There was a time when Edmonds and Brian Giles (combined with the underrated Adrian Gonzalez) would've comprised an intimidating middle of the order. But that time has past. If the Padres are going to have any hope of contending, they will have to upgrade in left field and upgrade in a major way. Remaining free agents like Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders are not likely to put them over the top.

What the Padres do have is Chase Headley. The 24-year-old third baseman owned AA last season with an OPS of 1017. There would undoubtedly be some growing pains, but he would be a defensive upgrade over reigning three-bagger Kevin Kouzmanoff. The Kouz, raking at a .317 clip with 13 HR in the second half of 2007, could potentially move to left where he would be slightly less of a butcher on defense...perhaps. In the hard-fought NL West, however, the Padres likely will not have the luxury of allowing a promising youngster to mature at the big-league level, as Kouzmanoff and Alex Gordon did in 2007.

The Padres have been rumored in trades for Jason Bay and Coco Crisp, both of which appear to have petered out. Andre Ethier, Xavier Nady, Marlon Byrd, and Jay Payton would all be "Plan B" options that still represent a sizable upgrade over the DaVanon/Hairston platoon. Ethier, who is blocked by Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp in L.A., has the most potential of the bunch, but also comes at the highest price. Ethier really struggled in big ballparks last season, hitting below .200 (in limited at-bats) at Petco, RFK, and Shea Stadium.

Florida Marlins - Catcher

The Marlins let Miguel Olivo sign a contract in Kansas City, which might not appear to be a considerable loss, but Olivo has hit 16 HR in each of the last two seasons and he threw out 33% of runners in 2007 (4th best among MLB regulars). Olivo got high marks from Joe Giradi when he was managing in Florida, and Giradi knows a thing or two about catching. The Marlins have a very young pitching staff with tons of potential, but now are without an established backstop.

The incumbent is Matt Treanor, who was Olivo's primary back-up last season. At 32, he has never appeared in more than 67 games or had more than 171 at-bats. Last season he showed good patience with a .357 OBP in limited time, but as an everyday player he will be among the easiest outs in the league. Moreover, he doesn't exactly dominate the running game. He threw out only 19% of basestealers in 2007 (after throwing out an impressive 47% in '06). Presumably, however, he knows the pitching staff and has their trust, so he'll probably get at least a couple of starts a week.

The new blood is Mike Rabelo, who spent 2007 as a rookie under the tutelage of Ivan Rodriguez in Detroit. Rabelo, 27, showed decent offensive potential in the minors, hitting around .275 for four consecutive seasons and showing a little power (9 HR in 100 G in 2006) as he developed. Rabelo gunned down a respectable 28% of basestealers last year. He will be given the opportunity to assert himself as a starter, but doesn't exactly project as a valuable asset offensively or defensively.

Florida isn't likely going anywhere this season in the stacked NL East, so they won't sacrifice money or prospects to bring in a veteran. But the Marlin program, as outlined by their World Series runs in '97 and '03, should have them back in contention sometime in '09 or '10. That program has always included a top-flight catcher (I-Rod in '03 and Charles Johnson in '97), so expect the Marlins to start thinking about an upgrade by midseason. They have a deep farm system and a stacked bullpen, plenty of arms which contenders (and non-contenders) are likely to covet. Texas (Gerald Laird, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez), Arizona (Miguel Montero), Anaheim (Jeff Mathis, Hank Conger), and Baltimore (Guillermo Quiroz) might be viable trade partners.