A month ago, it was still appropriate to spout platitudes like "It's still early," "It's a long season," and "Let's not be hasty," but with more than a third of the season in the books, the draft completed, and the All-Star Break less than a month away, it is time for GMs to give serious consideration to the State of the Franchise.

The good news is, at the start of the second week of June, only four franchises have no option but to start looking toward next year: the Washington Nationals, the Kansas City Royals, the Colorado Rockies, and the Seattle Mariners. Of those four, only the Mariners and Rockies entered the season with any serious hope of contention, although, one could argue, the Royals are also underachieving.

It is also good news that two out of every three franchises in MLB are within two games of .500, meaning the vast majority of fans still have plenty of reasons for optimism. Even some of the significantly under .500 teams - Cincinnati, Detroit, Cleveland, and San Diego - have enough talent and have played well enough for prolonged stretches to keep hope alive. The Padres, for example, looked buried only a couple weeks ago, but a 10-4 stretch which included a four game sweep of the Mets has them 6 1/2 games back of the scuffling Diamondbacks, with Jake Peavy due back at the end of the week. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Khalil Greene, two Friar's biggest offensive disappointments thus far, both historically perform better in the second half. It remains to be seen whether San Diego will be buying or selling over the next two months.

On the other hand, some teams would be best served to start looking ahead sooner rather than later, even though they still appear to be within striking distance of contention. Texas (32-33, 7.5 GB), San Francisco (28-35, 5.5 GB), Houston (32-32, 8 GB), and Baltimore (32-32, 7 GB) have all given their fans reason to be more optimistic than they might have been a couple months ago, but each has holes so gaping there is no hope of fixing them with a mid-season makeover. The Rangers and Astros are both at least three quality pitchers short of a respectable starting rotation, while San Francisco and Baltimore are both near the bottom of their respective leagues in scoring because they both are stuck using minor-league quality players at multiple positions. I'm not recommending that any of these teams resort to wholesale house-cleaning, which may be necessary in Colorado and Seattle, but they could probably sell off spare parts like Randy Winn, Ty Wigginton, Marlon Byrd, and Kevin Millar for more than they are really worth.

Last year the eventual final four - Arizona, Boston, Cleveland, and Colorado - all stood pat at the deadline. Of the playoff teams, only the Cubs (Jason Kendall) and Yankees (Roger Clemens) made significant deadline acquisitions. This year promises to be quite different. A rash of Red Sox injuries and the annual Yankee pitching ineffectiveness makes both teams likely buyers. The Mets and the Tigers, both franchises scuffling badly, but designed to win now, are likely to be prone to rash decisions. Ozzie Guillen recently demanded some new faces for his first-place White Sox. Atlanta's got real pitching problems with Smoltz done for the season. The Cubs don't have any glaring holes, but Jim Hendry is known for making midseason trades and fans around Wrigley are finally smelling a legitimate championship contender.

The biggest question may be how this season's bevy of surprisingly strong clubs - the Marlins, Rays, Cardinals, and Athletics - will respond to the stretch drive. The Rays, especially, despite the strength of their division, seem to have enough pieces to stay in contention to the end. They have a deep farm system, which makes them one of the teams best suited to make a blockbuster. A front-of-the-rotation arm or middle-of-the-order bat could be enough to put them over the top. On the other hand, many predicted that Billy Beane would spend the whole season cutting ties with his most valuable assets. Being in second-place might not change that approach, as it likely only raises the value of Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Rich Harden, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, and Eric Chavez. The Cardinals biggest question mark, starting pitching, may be buoyed by the return of Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement in the coming month or so. If all come back strong, they Cards, currently positioned to be the NL Wild Card, might be buying.

Here are the most sought after commodities in the next six weeks and the teams which will be seeking them, broken into Suckers (franchises whose desperation will lead them to mortgage the farm), Sellers (teams likely to drop out of the race and start making deals), and Sleepers (teams whose performance in the next three weeks could lead them to make a surprise deal at the deadline).

1. Starting Pitching

Suckers: Yankees, Tigers, Mets, Phillies, Braves
Sellers: Athletics (Joe Blanton, Rich Harden), Padres (Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf), Mariners (Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista), Rockies (Aaron Cook), Rangers (Kevin Millwood)
Sleepers: Cubs, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals, Indians (C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee), Twins (Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez)

Like every year, the most common weakness is all the greatest necessity for postseason success, starting pitching. This year, however, there is more quality on the market than normal, especially if the Indians elect to deal Sabathia and/or Lee. Sabthia, Bedard, and Hardne are all top-tier Aces who could set a rotation up nicely for playoff dominance, but the price will be very steep and one has to question whether the Yankees can afford to give up Melky Cabrera or Robinson Cano, whether the Mets would be willing to deal Fernando Martinez, and whether the Tigers have anything left to auction off for such a big-name player.

In the end, the best move might be made by a team that already has a frontline starter or two, but secures depth in the form of Joe Blanton, Greg Maddux, or Aaron Cook. Also, like the Athletics, look for the Twins to consider making moves even if they are still hovering close to contention. Nothing gets the big boys salivating like young high-potential starting pitching. Minnesota has lots of it in the majors and high minors: Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Phillip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Anthony Swarzak. There isn't enough room in their rotation for all of these guys. Liriano is probably the only one that is untouchable.

2. Center Fielder

Suckers: Cubs, Braves, White Sox, Padres
Sellers: Royals (David DeJesus), Rockies (Willy Taveras), Athletics (Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Daivs), Red Sox (Coco Crisp), Reds (Corey Patterson, Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel)
Sleepers: Dodgers (Juan Pierre), Yankees (Melky Cabrera)

At the beginning of the season it looked like Coco Crisp would be the hottest commodity on the market come June. A premier defensive outfielder with great speed, flashes of power, and switch-hitting ability would surely yield a pretty strong return from a team like Cubs or Padres with no true center-fielder. And, he still might. However, the injury to Big Papi, combined with a nagging injury to Jacoby Ellsbury, and the always tender J. D. Drew and Manny Ramirez, makes it very difficult for the Red Sox to justify dealing Crisp. What they need is bats and gloves (what with the depth of the pitching corps) and Crisp isn't likely to return anything much better than what he himself possesses. So, if appears that David DeJesus and Willy Taveras will the cream of the center-field crop. DeJesus matches best with the Cubs, who would prefer a left-handed hitter and a guy who could hit lower in the order. Taveras is a pure leadoff hitter, while DeJesus has a little bit of power (.444 SLG) to go along with his OBP skills (.362). What the Cubs really want is a guy who could bat fifth, allowing Fukudome to move up in the order, but such a player doesn't appear likely to become available, unless perhaps Hendry could engineer a Melky Cabrera for Rich Hill swap.

The White Sox would really like to move Swisher to a corner spot, first base, or DH, but they are filled up around the horn (Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, or Jim Thome), which could mean that Swisher becomes available...

3. Corner Outfielders

Suckers: Mets, Tigers, Blue Jays, Indians, Padres
Sellers: Reds (Adam Dunn, Ken Griffy Jr.), Pirates (Jason Bay, Xavier Nady), White Sox (Nick Swisher), Mariners (Raul Ibanez)
Sleepers: Rays, Rockies (Matt Holliday), Dodgers (Andre Ethier), Cardinals (Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker)

This is only position at which there might be some potent bats available. The Reds and Pirates seem likely to drop out of contention soon. Cincinnati has been shopping Dunn and Griffey for years, and Pittsburgh will need to make room for Andrew McCutcheon and Steven Pearce in the near future. The Cardinals will eventually hand center field to Colby Rasmus and move Rick Ankiel to right. One has to wonder whether the value for Ludwick or Schumaker will ever be higher. If the Rockies make Holliday available, many more big-market teams will get into the mix, but that seems unlikely. With that exception, if a team give up two quality prospects for any one of these guys, they're getting ripped off.

4. Relief Pitching

Suckers: Yankees, Tigers, Braves, Brewers, Indians
Sellers: Athletics (Huston Street, Keith Foulke, Alan Embree), Rockies (Brian Fuentes, Taylor Buchholz), Pirates (Damaso Marte, John Grabow), Giants (Tyler Walker, Jack Taschner, Brad Hennessey)
Sleepers: Mets (Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenweis)

If the season were to end today, of the eight teams qualifying for the postseason, five would be in the top ten in MLB in bullpen ERA, and three in the top five. The other three - the Red Sox, Angels, and Cardinals - are likely to climb upward, especially the Red Sox and Angels which each feature a trio of reputable relievers at the back end of games. Papelbon, Okajim, and Delcarmen in Boston. K-Rod, Shield, and Speier in Anaheim. Cleveland and Detroit rank 28th and 29th in bullpen ERA, which is the biggest explanation for their disappointing seasons so far. The return of Borowski, Rodney, and Zumaya to those pens could spark a second-half resurgence.

Good teams are very unlikely to deal away any of their depth, but bad teams may sell off their entire relief corps. It's a good way to acquire value (i.e. Eric Gagne for Kason Gabbard and David Murphy last season).

Fantasy Notes

• Don't Pay For Steals: A couple of early round options, Ryan Braun and Russell Martin, have both gotten hot at the plate after slow starts, but they are still falling short in the category that provoked many roto owners to take them in the top two or three rounds.  Martin has stolen only four bases, putting him on pace for ten on the year, still great for a catcher, but half as many as he nabbed in 2007.  Braun has stolen only two, after grabbing fifteen in two-thirds of a season last year.  Many owners went into 2008 thinking he would have a legitimate shot at 30/30.  Granted, both of these players are massively valuable, regardless of whether they are stealing bases, but both were selected higher because of their high five-category expectations.
• The Worst Offense of the Modern Era: Many pundits, including myself, predicted that the San Francisco Giants lineup would be among the worst we could remember.  Let me be clear, they haven't been good (14th in the NL and 27th in MLB in runs scored), but they have had some very pleasant surprises.  First off, Aaron Rowand, who appeared to be grossly overpaid, moving from the cozy confines of Philadelphia to the wide-open spaces of PNC Park, where you need superhuman Barry Bonds-like strength to hit the ball out from gap to gap.  The home-runs have not exactly been easy to come by (he's got 8), but he is tied for 4th in the league (with teammate Ben Molina) in hitting, at .328.  He's driven in 36 runs and has a 924 OPS.  Molina's numbers (.328-6-38) are also very strong for a player expected to be a low-round option.  However, both of these guys were probably selected in your draft, or picked up shortly thereafter.  The Giant who is still available in many leagues is hitting .279 with 37 runs scored.  He's been getting on base at an impressive .363 clip, has decent power (12 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR), and has stolen eleven bases, that's good for eighth in the National League.  Those steals make him extremely valuable in just about any format.  The player: Fred Lewis.  Keeper league owners especially need to start paying attention.  Lewis is in his second season and is 27, moving into his baseball prime.  It seem likely that, if the Giants are wise (big IF), Lewis will stabilize left field and the leadoff spot, allowing them to focus their off-season free agent search on right-fielders and corner infielders.
• Triple Crown in Texas?: There's been much discussion of the season Josh Hamilton is having, as their should be.  What nobody's mentioning is that while he was first in the AL in average, homers, and RBI, he's second in the AL and on his own team in OPS.  He has had the great benefit of hitting in front of the Toymaker, Milton Bradley, who is batting .328 with a dozen dingers, 38 RBIs, and a league-leading 1050 OPS.  Bradley's talent is beyond dispute and now, with the opportunity to DH at least part of the time, the Rangers can protect his injury-prone body.  Hamilton and Bradley both represent the beauty of recovering from adversity.  Ron Washington has appeared to be a calming presence on both of them.  If the Rangers approach .500, they both could be legitimate MVP contenders.   

The Sweet Lou Bullpen Program

This week I'd like to highlight a relatively new strategical development in Major League Baseball.  Manager and general managers have realized that the "closer mentality" doesn't have to be limited to the 9th inning.  More and more teams have, especially competitive teams, have added a set-up man who is as dominant, if not more dominant, than their stopper.  

At one point, of course, every pitcher who put on a uniform considered himself a starter.  He only reconciled himself to a life of bullpen work once it had been proven that he was ineffective when overexposed.  And even then, he longed for the opportunity to get himself back in the rotation.  Then, along came Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, and Dennis Eckersley, and closing down games appeared to be a more unlikely, but still a potential path to baseball immortality, especially for players with only one or two quality pitches, instead of three or four.  Still, however, there was only room in the bullpen for one star.  The other guys, they were just mop-up men, the unfortunate, but necessary risks which must be taken when the starter fails to turn the ball over directly to the closer. 

In recent years, the logic of relievers is changing yet again.  Partially, of course, because pitch-count limitations and improved patience from hitters is making it more difficult for even the best starters to consistently get past six or seven innings.  It took some time, but managers and general managers have reacted by finding ways to "shorten the game" with two or three outstanding relievers.  Lou Pinella has been at the forefront of this development.  In 1990, he won a World Series largely on the backs of the "Nasty Boys," a closer-by-committee trio composed of Norm Charlton (50 IP, 3.02 ERA, 2 SV, 57 K), Rob Dibble (98 IP, 1.74 ERA, 11 SV, 136 K), and Randy Myers (87 IP, 2.08 ERA, 31 SV, 98 K).  Two lefties and one right-handed who could be employed in any late inning and in any order.  In 2001, when Seattle tied an MLB record for wins, Pinella adapted to more defined bullpen roles, but again depended on a combination of strong relievers, two left-handed and two right-handed: Norm Charlton (48 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1 SV, 48 K), Jeff Nelson (65 IP, 2.76 ERA, 4 SV, 88 K), Arthur Rhodes (68 IP, 1.72 ERA, 3 SV, 83 K), and Kaz Sasaki (67 IP, 3.24 ERA, 45 SV, 62 K).  

This year, Pinella again has the ingredients for his favorite recipe, with Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Howry, Scott Eyre, and Michael Wuertz in the Cubs bullpen.  And, so far, the Cubs have the best record in baseball.  Most of the best managers - Tony LaRussa, Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, etc. - have adopted Lou's program, and to great success.  LaRussa, arguably the inventor of the hydra-headed bullpen monster depended upon Eckersley and Rick Honeycutt to lead many of his late-'80s, early-'90s Athletics contenders.  Torre moved from Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland to Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton, and Mariano Rivera as part of the '90s Yankee Dynasty.  The Angels World Series run in 2002 was dependent upon Troy Percival, Francisco Rodriguez, Scot Shields, Ben Weber, and Brendan Donnelly.  

The success of the these teams has increased the notoriety of the dominant set-up man.  In 2001, Torre put Paul Quantrill, at the time posting a 2.13 ERA and 7 relief wins on the AL All-Star Team.  Bob Brenly followed suit the following season for the NL, adding Atlanta's Mike Remlinger (50 IP, 2.88, 68 K) among much criticism.  In all but one season since, at least one set-up man has been an All-Star.  Considering that arguably the best closer in history, Lee Smith, is still awaiting induction, it may be a very long time before middle relievers get any consideration for the Hall of Fame.  But, baseball theorist would do well to consider the particular challenges the set-up man faces.  Unlike the starter, for whom the quality start is six innings pitched, three earned runs, and the closer, who is successful so long as he holds onto a lead, the only successful outcome for a middle reliever is to come into the game (often with men on base) and get through the inning, or partial inning, without allowing any runs.  A run is a failure.  The heavy pressure of these situations may explain why managers like Pinella, Eric Wedge, and Jim Leyland have elected to put their most dominant pitchers - Rafael Perez, Joel Zumaya, Carlos Marmol, etc. - in middle relief roles, while handing the closer duties to guys like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones, whose stuff is not nearly as electric.  The closer usually has the advantage of entering the game with nobody on.

It is often observed that very few pitchers are successful in the closer's role over a considerable duration of time.  Only three pitchers have ever registered 30 saves ten times: Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, and Mariano Rivera.  However, even fewer middle reliever succeed over the long haul.  Let's talk about those All-Stars.  Paul Quantrill had a solid seven-year run, of which his All-Star year was arguably the highlight (11-2, 3.04, 83 IP).  During this stretch his was 32-29, with 18 SV and a 2.82 ERA.  However, in 2004 he turned in a sub-par year with Torre's Yankees and was out of baseball by 2006.  Mike Remlinger was a bullpen staple in Atlanta and Chicago for six seasons from '99 to '04, during which he failed to make 70 appearances only once and never had an ERA above 3.65.  His record was an impressive 32-17.  But, like Quantrill, one sub-par season was the end of him.  He retired after '06.  In 2003, Mike Scioscia rewarded Brendan Donnelly with a trip to the All-Star Game.  Donnelly did not make the majors until the age of 30, but was a key part of the Angels bullpen from 2002 to 2006, although his effectiveness continued to dwindle for his final three seasons in Anaheim before he was eventually traded to Boston.  He was effective in the early months of 2007, but had to undergo Tommy John and is now trying to make his way back to the majors in the Indians organization.  Set-up man, Justin Duchscherer, represented Oakland in 2005.  He had three solid seasons as a middle reliever before suffering from nagging injuries last year.  The A's recently converted him to a starter.  As you can see, it is rare for a middle reliever to be effective for an extended period of time.  Often, at least in the past, the best set-up men have not found the right role until late in their careers or, if they do find it early, teams have attempted to convert them either to closers or starters.  However, as managers and GMs become more aware of the necessity of the 7th and 8th inning All-Stars, they will be in less of a hurry to make such alterations, as can be witnessed by Joe Giradi's reluctance to give in to the pressure to make Joba Chamberlain a starter.  Here are half-a-dozen of the best middle-men who we can likely look forward to seeing in that role for several years to come.

6. Tom Gordon - Philadelphia Phillies

This is the twentieth season for forty-year-old Flash Gordon, his twelfth as a reliever.  In his illustrious career he's netted 137 wins, 157 saves, and 117 holds.  Nobody in major league history has accumulated that combination of stats.  And, disregarding the Hold, a stat which didn't come into existence until the 1980s, Gordon joins Eckersley, Lindy McDaniel, Hoyt Wilhelm, and John Smoltz as the only players with 130 wins and 150 saves.  Very impressive company!  And, at 40, Gordon has proved that he's still quite a dominant set-up man.  Since giving up fiver earned runs in a third of an inning in his first appearance, Gordon has recorded one save and nine holds, striking out eighteen hitters in twenty innings, and compiling a 2.21 ERA.  

5. Tony Pena - Arizona Diamondbacks

Pena's future is closely intertwined with that of Brandon Lyon, the D-Backs current closer.  Lyon will be a free agent at the end of this season, while Pena will be under their control for four more seasons.  Lyon will make more than $3,000,000 in 2008 and ask for more if he continues to be successful (12 SV, 1.64 ERA so far!).  Pena will make $405,000 this year and then face arbitration.  If Arizona resigns Lyon, Pena can stay in the role which he has dominated thus far in his career.  He's been in the top ten in the MLB in Holds each of the past two seasons.  Doug Melvin is confident bringing him in any situation.  Leaving aside one bad outing in a game that was already out of reaching, Pena has ten holds and a save this season, to go along with a 2.28 ERA.  

4. Carlos Marmol - Chicago Cubs

In Marmol, Lou Pinella has found the reincarnation of Rob Dibble.  Like Pena, Marmol could eventually find himself closing games, but Pinella prefers the freedom to use him in whichevery late-inning situation requires strikeouts, whether it means bringing him in with men on base or matching him up with the opposition's middle-of-the-order.  Since Chicago turned him into a reliever after a dozen unsuccessful starts in 2006, Marmol has a 1.90 ERA with 161 K in 113 innings.  This year he already has 16 holds and 3 saves, as well as a 1.54 ERA.  Marmol is arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball, regardless of role.  

3. Rafeal Perez - Cleveland Indians

Because he is left-handed and because they have Rafael Betancourt, Masa Kobayashi, Jensen Lewis, and Joe Borowski the Indians will be reluctant to turn him into a closer, so Perez could be among the league-leaders in holds for years and years to come.  Last season he posted a 1.78 ERA and 62 K in 60 innings.  He has held left-handers to a .142 career average (and righties only hit .222).  

2. Hideki Okajima - Boston Red Sox

Okajima shoots toward the top of the list partially because he is buried behind a young closer who is among the most dominant in history, Jonathan Papelbon.  The Red Sox are unlikely to trade him, both because Hideki has been ridiculously effective thus far, and because his presence brings comfort to his very expensive countryman, Dice-K.  Okajima, however, has himself been a key piece of Boston's success the past two seasons.  He went to the All-Star Game in 2007 and finished the year with a 2.22 ERA, 5 SV, 27 HLD, and 63 K in 69 innings.  This year he has again started off on fire.  He's allowed only two earned runs in 24 innings (0.75 ERA).  Boston has a club option for 2009, an option which is, strangely, less expensive than the contracts for his first two seasons.  They'll pick that up in a hurry, one would bet.  At that point, Okajima will be 34-years-old.  If he hasn't shown any signs to slowing down, he could demand one of the largest contracts ever awarded a middle reliever.

1. Scot Shields - Los Angeles Angels

Shields signed a three-year, $15 Million contract before this season which pretty much assured that the 32-year-old would never make his mark as a closer.  He will be among the first players to make a very lucrative career almost entirely out of pitching the eighth inning.  He has racked up 30 or more holds in each of the past three seasons and is easily on pace to do it again this year.  He's got a 2.97 career ERA and 128 holds.  Unless K-Rod goes down with a serious injury, Shields will never have an opportunity to close regularly in Anaheim, even though he undoubtedly has the stuff to do so.  The Angels invested in the hydra-headed bullpen strategy when they signed Shields and Justin Speier to long, lucrative deals, investing nearly $30 Million in their services for the next three seasons.   

Hall of Fame Questions

Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza have officially announced their retirements.  Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds have been forced into exile.  John Smoltz, Ken Griffey Jr., Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux have expiring contracts and have been dropping occasional hints.  The heroes of my early teens will soon become managers, pitching coaches, bad broadcasters, and semi-anonymous multi-millionaires, so it seems like a good time to discuss the inevitable questions of Hall of Fame credentials.  

First of all, in my opinion, it is a given that all of the players mentioned above are shoo-in first ballot players.  As should be Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro.  It may be "The Steroid Era," and some of these guys may have benefitted for performance-enhancing drugs, but most, if not all, of them would've been enshrined regardless and I don't think there is anything more shameful about this "era" than "The Segregation Era," "The Anti-Semetism Era," "The Spitball Era," and "The Collusion Era" (has it ended?).  Unlike Bud Selig and the MLB marketing department, I am not attracted to baseball history by any illusion of Disney World purity.  Any good historian knows, accuracy is almost always more entertaining than myth.  

I would like to consider the cases of a few borderline players who are entering the twilight of their careers.

Derek Jeter - SS - New York Yankees

I am a board-certified Jeter-hater, as most of you know, but I am not so prejudiced as to be incapable of looking at him rationally.  If he gets to 3,000 hits, which seems a foregone conclusion, he deserves to get into the Hall.  Jeter is great contact hitter, I have never disputed that.  He is a postseason God, there can be no doubt.  What makes me think that he's dramatically overrated is his putrid defense and the fact that the infamous captain doesn't seem to have all that much positive sway in a clubhouse which is constantly in turmoil.  I also think that the fawning of commentators over his potential run at 4,000 hits is ridiculous.  Jeter is 34.  He would need more than 7 seasons of 200+ hits to get to 4,000.  He has only gotten to 200 hits in six of his first twelve full seasons.  Jeter's power is dramatically declining (fewer homers in each of the last four seasons), as is his speed (only 16 for 24 in stolen bases the last two years).  He will, naturally, be less of an iron-man as he ages, as demonstrated by a trip to the D.L. already this season (the first since 2003).  Jeter's future is uncertain in many ways.  His massive contract will expire after 2010.  One would expect he will remain a Yankee, though at a significant discount, but his role will have to be determined.  I think even Yankee fans and management are near to the realization that he won't be a shortstop for much longer.  His range and fielding percentage have declined every season since 2005.  He was arguably the worst in the AL in 2007 (last in Range Factor, last in Zone Rating, 6th in Fielding Percentage).  However, he doesn't profile as the kind of hitter the Yankees expect for their corner outfield positions.  They just signed a pretty good player to be their third baseman for the next decade.  So, are the Yankees going to let excellent young players like Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera become free agents so that they can free up space for a declining singles-hitting captain who may not be particularly good at second or in center.  We'll have to wait and see.

Chipper Jones - 3B - Atlanta Braves

The long-time face of the evil Braves isn't exactly my favorite player, but I have to agree with Rob Neyer's article arguing for Jones' inevitable enshrinement.  Like Jeter, Jones has led many of his teams to postseason appearances and performed well when there (13 HR and 870 OPS in 92 games).  Unlike Jeter, he hasn't exactly been indestructible.  He hasn't played upwards of 140 games since 2003.  However, when he's been in the lineup, there's been no sign of decline.  He doesn't steal bases anymore, but he hasn't since he turned 30 (he's 36 now), and he actually seems to be getting better as a hitter.  His OPS has improved every year since 2004.  So, it seems safe to say he will improve on numbers which are already pretty noteworthy.  Among third baseman, only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews have hit more home runs, and if he hits 25+ for four more years (not impossible), he might catch Matthews.  His career OPS is the best ever (for 3B).  He'll certainly reach 1500 RBI (moving him into the top 50 all-time) and has an outside shot at 3,000 hits.  Chipper won't get any assistance from his defense, but he shouldn't need it.  And, it goes without saying, this discussion isn't even necessary if he hits .400 this season.

Jason Varitek - C - Boston Red Sox

Varitek is a great example of the kind of player who might be overlooked in an era of offensive production.  However, he is the first Red Sox catcher to capture two World Championships since Pinch Thomas (1915 & 1916) and his newsworthy record of being behind the plate for four no-hitters might help him garner some voter attention.  Varitek's talent behind the plate has been underestimated because he's played most of his career in the shadow of Pudge Rodriguez.  His only Gold Glove came in 2005.  His offensive numbers are nothing to be ashamed of.  Among players who have spent 90% of their careers behind the plate, Varitek is 8th in OPS.  Of the seven players in front of him, only Chris Hoiles has no shot at the Hall (4 are already in, Rodriguez is a shoo-in, and, speaking of catchers with handfuls of rings, Jorge Posada is another borderline selection).  If he were eligible tomorrow, I don't think I'd vote for him, but that doesn't mean a couple more BoSox championships wouldn't persuade me otherwise.

Mike Mussina - SP - New York Yankees

Moose hasn't been very good for the last few years, I know.  He's never won 20 games in a season or a Cy Young and a run at 300 wins isn't looking likely.  But he's got more strikeouts than Tom Glavine and only two players (Mickey Lolich & Frank Tanana) with as many strikeouts as the Moose are not in the Hall (or headed there).  He's got more wins than Curt Schilling and a better winning percentage than Schilling, Glavine, Smoltz, and Greg Maddux (!), all players from the same era who played for good teams and seem certainly headed for Cooperstown.  However, only one player (Red Ruffing) with an ERA as high as Mussina on his career (3.71) is in the Hall.  Mussina could be in the position to change the standards.  Baseball pundits seem confident that the 300 win plateau is going to be unrealistic for this generation's pitchers.  The 3.50 career ERA might be a similarly high expectation, considering the AL average in the last decade has been well above 4.50.  I'd say no to Mussina, but I bet a significant number of baseball writers will feel otherwise.

Trevor Hoffman - RP - San Diego Padres

I know, the game's all-time leader in saves should be a sure thing, right?  Well, it didn't work out that way for Lee Smith and he had more wins, more strikeouts, more innings pitched, and more All-Star appearances than Hoffman, with a similarly good career ERA (3.03 compared to 2.76) and several downright dominating seasons.  Like Smith, Hoffman never won a World Series and he only got there once.  More importantly, when Smith became eligible in 2002, he was still the reigning saves king, which would've seemed to help his case.  By the time Hoffman's name gets on the ballot, he probably will have been surpassed by Mariano Rivera, whose credentials are, frankly, much, much more impressive.  He already leads Hoffman in wins, ERA, innings, and All-Star appearances, not to mention that ridiculous postseason line: 8-1, 34 SV, 0.77 ERA, 91 K, 16 BB, 117 IP.  There are only four full-time relievers in the Hall, none of them with upwards of 400 saves.  They will be setting a new precedent when they enshrine a career closer.  Something tells me that Mo Rivera is destined to be that precedent (though Hoffman may follow him).   

The New Nightmare

This weekend two of the best sluggers in baseball will be in Boston, taking aim at the Green Monster.  It's a 3-4 combo featuring a lanky, defensively-challenged, somewhat surly right-handed left-fielder and an intimidatingly large, but ever-smiling, defensively-challenged left-handed first baseman.  It might be one of the best hitting pairs in baseball history.  I know, you may be asking yourself, "Don't these guys play in Boston, like, every weekend?"

Well, no, because I'm talking about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Since Braun arrived in the majors just less than a year ago, he and Fielder have combined for 84 HR and 232 RBI, significantly more than Manny and Big Papi over the same span (55 HR, 196 RBI).  More than any 3-4 combo in baseball, for that matter, combos like A-Rod/Abreu (58 HR, 227 RBI), Berkman/El Cabayo (74 HR, 225 RBI), and D-Lee/Ramirez (50 HR, 176 RBI).  Moreover, while each of those pairs features two mature players, every one of them over the age of 30, Fielder and Braun have a combined age of 48 years, 6 months, and 3 days.

In other words, together they are younger than recently retired Julio Franco.  

Like Manny and Papi, they have a very strong supporting cast, especially on offense, most of whom are also quite young.  What the Brew Crew doesn't have, is pitching depth, which is why they are likely to get pummeled this weekend by the superior Red Sox team, who will send Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield to the mound to face Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva.  Despite a dramatically overhauled mercenary bullpen (Gagne, Riske, Torres, and Mota all signed this past offseason), the Brewers are among the league's worst in blown saves and bullpen ERA (8 BS, 4.37 ERA).  Strangely, despite the continued dominance of Papelbon (2.41, 11 SV) and Okajima (0.93, 9 HLD, 1 SV), Boston's relief corps have been pretty putrid as well (8 BS, 4.56 ERA).  If starting pitching fails to contain these two potent offenses, we could see some real slugfests.  

Bold Predictions: Employment Edition

• Two veteran closers lost their jobs yesterday, Jason Isringhausen of the Cardinals and Eric Gagne of the Brewers.  Both manager, Tony LaRussa and Ned Yost (the teams were playing each other, ironically), promised a closer-by-committee situation.  But, we should take heed of who they turned to for their first opportunities.  On Saturday afternoon LaRussa handed the ball to Ryan Franklin in the 9th.  Franklin has a 1.89 ERA with 12 holds, so it's hard for me to imagine a situation in which he would not be a good choice.  It took him 14 pitches to dispense with the top of the Brewers order.  Today, Ned Yost turned the ball over to Salomon Torres.  Torres, a former closer for the Pirates, has gone 3-0 with a save, two holds, and a 2.74 ERA since arriving in Milwaukee.  He has a history of success and durability, pitching 90+ innings for Pittsburgh three seasons in a row from '04-'06 with an ERA below 3.00, 15 saves, and 58 holds.  While it is possible that LaRussa and Yost might opt for Russ Springer or Brian Shouse when they see an all left-handed lineup, those situations will be rare.  Fantasy owners should set their sights on Franklin and Torres.
• For those playing in leagues that require two or more catchers, might I suggest taking a look at Miguel Olivo of the Royals. Olivo has made 15 starts already this season, either in favor of John Buck or as the DH.  He's got 4 HR and 10 RBI. Only seven backstops can match those numbers. Granted, it's a small sample, but this is a tough position to fill and sometimes you've got to take some risks. Olivo does have a history of decent power, hitting 16 HR in each of the last two seasons. So if you're currently carrying Buck, Josh Bard, Brian Schneider, or Chris Coste, you'd probably be better served by picking up Olivo.
• The Tigers cut ties with Jacque Jones this week as part of their ongoing efforts to shake up the offense.  Detroit is second in the AL in scoring, so one must question whether they should really be punishing position players.  I might have considered sending a message through Nate Robertson (1-4, 6.64).  There are two points to be made here.  First, Jacque Jones is going to land elsewhere, probably as a starter.  Last year, after a slow start, Jones hit .332 with 46 RBI after the All-Star break.  He proved he could play respectably well at any outfield position, so there are plenty of potential suitors, including the Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Twins.  He could be a very productive fourth or fifth outfielder in a deep fantasy league.  Additionally, Jones' release has resulted in more playing time for Marcus Thames and Matt Joyce, while Sheffield gets more playing time in left field.  However, Matt Joyce isn't going to be the Tiger's long-term solution.  Obviously, there has been a frenzy of media speculation about Barry Bonds.  It would be a logical match, undoubtedly, and one must wonder whether Detroit could do any better (certainly not for the price).  However, Tigers management has already angered some of their fellow Robber Barons by handing out several monster contracts in the last couple seasons, will they risk the additional spite from the commissioner's office by breaking the collusion agreement regarding Bonds?  It seems doubtful.  On the other hand, they ransacked their farm system in order to get Cabrera and Willis, so they probably don't have the right set of pieces for acquiring an left-handed impact guy like Andre Ethier (unless they deal Inge and eat much of his contract).  They may be forced to consider Bonds or Kenny Lofton (who might actually be the better fit).
• One has to wonder how much longer John Gibbons will be managing the Toronto Blue Jays.  He has quite possibly the best pitching staff in all of baseball, but hasn't been able to climb out of the AL East cellar.  Sure, you can't blame Gibbons for injuries to Vernon Wells, David Eckstein, Jeremy Accardo, and John McDonald.  However, what you can blame Gibbons for is being too patient with his starting pitchers and not patient enough with his hitters.  Twice in the series with Cleveland he sent an Ace back out to the mound after he had thrown well over a hundred pitches (Halladay in the 7th on Friday, Burnett in the 8th today), only to be forced to remove him after he'd allowed several baserunners.  What I don't understand, especially, is that we're talking about a team that has a solid bullpen and starters who have already worked deep into the game.  If he was trying to push his horses to give him quality starts, it might be one thing, but these guys were clearly exhausted, having already done their jobs!  Hand the ball to Jesse Carlson, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, and B. J. Ryan, all of whom have pitched excellently so far and had plenty of rest, because the Toronto rotation consistently pitches deep into games, even when Gibbons isn't forcing it on them.  They also has Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp (and Accardo, until recently) out there who haven't started the season very strong, but have histories of success.  There is plenty of depth, but Gibbons only seems to trust his Aces.  I don't think anybody's mismanaged a quality pitching staff this badly since Grady Little got booted out of Boston.  Additionally, Gibbons' has also had a much-publicized confrontation with Frank Thomas, which resulted in the Big Hurt heading to Oakland where he has a .391 OBP and 10 RBI in 17 games.  The only guys with 10 RBI for Toronto during that span is, you guessed it, Vernon Wells, who won't be taking the field again for two months.  Without Thomas or Wells, Alex Rios will have to move to center field, and the corner outfield spots and DH with presumably be shared by some combination of Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, and Matt Stairs.  Stairs has played quite well, but Stewart, Wilkerson, and Mench have combined for 7 runs, 0 HR, and 11 RBI in close to 200 ABs so far.  Meanwhile, Adam Lind, a bonafide top prospect toils at AAA, where he is hitting .329 with a 903 OPS.  But, since he didn't produce in the first three games after they released Thomas, Gibbons benched him and eventually he had to be sent back so he could get regular playing time.  The Jays had very high expectation going into the season and they still aren't that far back in the crowed AL East.  Any team with this much pitching can get hot and make a run, as the Padres prove almost every year, but I think Toronto is going to need to spur it by firing their hot-headed manager and bringing in a fresh perspective.  Hey, I think Jack McKeon is available.   

Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High

It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team.  As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long.  However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible.  Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.

Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI).  What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries.  Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP).  Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time.  Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power.  Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego).  If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.

A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start.  After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs).  If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y

ear.  Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far.  Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.

Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half.  Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467.  Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters.  But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic.  In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB).  Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers.  It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.

Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs

This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues.  Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio.  He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion.  Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems.  The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA).  I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him.  However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season.  If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.

Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11.  Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.

Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels

It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers.  Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade.  Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.  

Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four.  He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support.  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.

The Shrinking Strike Zone

In 2001 Bud Selig and Sandy Alderson encouraged MLB umpires to "hunt for strikes," enforcing the "letters to knees" strike zone as it is defined by baseball's century-old rulebook.  The Commissioner's office argued that the modest strike zone was partially responsible for longer game times, depleted pitching staffs, and the well-documented offensive explosion.  In the seasons which followed, they implemented the QuesTec pitch-tracking system, amidst considerable upheaval from the umpire's  and player's unions.  Some players, like Chipper Jones, argued that QuesTec actually helped hitters, discouraging umpires from employing the expanding "Greg Maddux" strike zone, since these subtle changes would be caught by the machine, and complained that the system was not used consistently in every game and every park, so certain teams (namely, the Mets) were gaining an unfair offensive advantage.  Umpire representatives argued that the technology was inconsistent, forced them into uncomfortable situations with players, and was prompted not by a genuine desire to improve the efficiency of the game, but because Selig was doing a favor for one of his corporate cronies who owned the QuesTec manufacturer.  It has been effectively proven, by Rob Neyer and others, that the QuesTec system and the "hunt for strikes" in general did very little to effect scoring.  However, game times and pitch counts did go down, partially because there was a dramatic decrease in walks.  Here is a chart of the average walks per major league franchise between 1998 and 2007:

1998: 548

1999: 596

2000: 608

2001: 527

2002: 542

2003: 530

2004: 541

2005: 507

2006: 528

2007: 536

This significant drop-off, more than 100 BB per team from 2000 to 2005, came despite the fact that teams are preaching patience more than ever, in the wake of "Moneyball," and players like Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Adam Dunn, and Jack Cust made their livings largely by moseying slowly to first.  Hitters adjusted to the new zone, still took their walks when appropriate, but were forced to swing at chest-high pitches, which no doubt quickened the pace of games and relieved the pressure on pitchers, even if it didn't cost the league any run production.  There is evidence to suggest that the trend is heading back in the wrong direction, since the low-point in base-on-balls in 2005.  The modest increases the past two seasons may foreshadow a significant upswing on the horizon.  I, personally, feel like pitchers have been getting squeezed more often in games which I've been watching and the early numbers this season suggest that it isn't merely coincidence.  In April of 2007, the average major league franchise took 87 free passes.  This April that number jumped to 97.  That's a total of 300 walks more across the league than a year ago (This number is somewhat exaggerated by the fact that there were more games in March this season).  Nonetheless, taking into account March and the first few days of May, the current pace would result in an MLB average for the season of around 563, more than 20 more walks per team than any season since 2000.  

I, personally, think Selig or Alderson would do well to issue a reminder to the umpires, in order to protect the fragile arms of major league pitchers.   

April Showers bring NEW Bold Predictions

LaRussa's Mad Science:

I should really know better by now. I lived in St. Louis for six years, during which Tony LaRussa took the Cardinals to the playoffs four times, including an 105 win season and an NL Championship in 2004, when nobody (even St. Louis fans) expected the Cards would finish higher than 3rd place in the NL Central. Last year the Cardinals stayed in contention until the final two weeks of the season, even though nobody other than Pujols drove in more than 70 runs or scored more than 58. By comparison, the two teams they were chasing, the Cubs and Brewers, each had at least four players who eclipsed those numbers in both categories. What's more perplexing? St. Louis also had by far the worst team ERA of any of the three franchises. Yet somehow the Cardinals finished only seven games back, even after they lost 14 of 16 in mid-September.

Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan are the only managerial team in baseball (sorry Bobby Cox) with seemingly magical abilities. Let me just list a few players that they've transformed in the last decade:

Chris Carpenter - SP - Had a .500 record, an ERA over 4.50, and had just missed a full season before arriving in St. Louis. Since then he has gone 51-18 and won a Cy Young.

Woody Williams - SP - He went 45-22 with the Cardinals, 87-94 everywhere else.

Matt Morris - SP - Hasn't had a winning record or an ERA under 4.90 since leaving St. Louis, where he once posted five straight winning seasons, averaging 16 wins a year during that span.

Sure they've had some tough cases as well (Anthony Reyes, Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, etc.), but in general they patch together pitching staffs and lineups from players that other teams have castaway (besides Carpenter and Williams, they've gotten significant contributions in recent years from Joel Pineiro, Jeff Weaver, Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, and Todd Wellemeyer).

If St. Louis remains in contention all year, this will be, undoubtedly, their most impressive performance yet. They are already making me regret picking them to finish last in the division. Right now, LaRussa has a quartet of outfielders batting better than .311. Their names? No, not Walker, Edmonds, Sanders, and Encarnacion. Not even Ankiel. Their names are Schumaker, Ludwick, Duncan, and Barton. Add in Ankiel, Glaus, and Prince Albert and you've got a lineup that is 5th in the NL in scoring. It's early and I highly doubt these guys can continue this pace, but St. Louis had Colby Rasmus waiting at AAA, so if even one or two of these guys proves to be for real, they could have a very respectable outfield by the end of the season.

More surprisingly, perhaps, the Cardinals are 4th in the NL in ERA, despite having a patchwork staff which includes seven pitchers who have made multiple appearances as both relievers and starters during the last two seasons. Versatility may be nice from one or two guys, but it generally doesn't suggest an impressive corps, since going back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation usually means a player hasn't been particularly good at either. Yet, somehow, LaRussa and Duncan, have quietly made Ryan Franklin, who pitched 190+ innings as a starter for three season sin Seattle, into one of the league's best set-up men (32 Holds and an ERA under 3.00 in 90 innings over the last two seasons). They've converted Braden Looper, who hadn't made a start in eight full major league seasons, into a solid inning-eater at the backend of the rotation (15-13 with 190 IP in 34 starts). And they're looking to Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Anthony Reyes to make similar transformations (so far the trio is 4-1 with 3 QS, 1 SV, 2 HLD, and an ERA around 3.50).

I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will outlast the surgin, power-packed Cubs or the young, talented Brewers, but if St. Louis finishes over .500 in third place with this group of players, LaRussa will deserve another Manager of the Year award.

The Baby Backs:

Matthew Berry, ESPN's Talented Mr. Roto, whose self-deprecating fantasy advice I usually enjoy and often agree with, recently predicted that Justin Upton, despite his hot start will only finish with about 25 HR and a .275 average (he's currently hitting .368 with 5 HR). While I understand his justification. The league will adjust and the 20-year-old Upton will suffer some slumps as the season progresses, I think you need to moderate this assumption with a player of Upton's caliber. Remember, Upton struggled under prolonged exposure to the league at the end of last season, but made successful adjustments in the postseason (1097 OPS) which he's carried over into this year. The Diamondbacks made a wise decision in sticking with him last year and they're reaping the benefits now. The proper comparison for Upton is not to guys like Jeff Francoeur, Rick Ankiel, and Troy Tulowitski, who are susceptible to sophomore slumps, but to Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, and Miguel Cabrera, who were not. Cabrera hit 33 HR with 112 RBI in his first full year. In Arizona's lineup, where Upton is currently batting 6th and is not expected to be the dominant force, such numbers are not unreasonable. Remember, one of the things (there are many) which separates Upton from his teammate, Mark Reynolds, and guys like Ankiel and Francoeur, is his control of the strike zone. Don't get me wrong, he's going to strikeout, but it isn't going to be consistently on pitches way out of the zone. No matter how NL hurlers approach him, they will have to throw him strikes.

Reynolds, also off to a very hot start, is something of a different story. He's looking great right now, but last year his K to BB ratio was almost 4:1. At one point, he struck out in ten consecutive at-bats. He's averaging more than one strikeout a game even during his hot streak. Reynolds is going to go cold much more often than Upton and his position is not nearly as secure since the D-Backs will have Chad Tracy coming back soon. Sure, there are plenty of studs like Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn to strike out as much as Reynold does, but even when they are slumping, as Dunn has been recently, they get on base via the walk. Reynold hasn't shown his ability to do that yet and until he does, he's risky business.

Finally, I'll conclude my discussion of the Baby Backs with Chris Young. Superficially, one would say he looks pretty consistent. Last year he hit .237 with 32 HR, 27 SB, 147 K. This year he is on pace for .227 with 40 HR , 24 SB, and 168 K. Great numbers, but the average and strikeouts aren't what you'd look for from a leadoff man. There is a difference though, Young has raised his OBP to a very respectable .348, more than fifty points higher than last season, by drawing more walks. Young is probably never going to hit .300, but a .350 OBP with 40/40 potential and top-tier centerfield defense is damn admirable.

A Tribute to Doc

It's may be hard to believe that a former Cy Young winner, who has averaged 15.5 wins a season for the past six seasons could be the most underrated player in baseball, but I believe that is the case. When pundits and prognosticators discuss the best starting pitchers they inevitable, and appropriately, point to Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, C. C. Sabathia, and Josh Beckett. Here on the west coast, the name John Lackey might be thrown into the mix. In the midwest, you might get arguments for Chris Carpenter, Aaron Harang, and Carlos Zambrano. But, the name you never hear is Roy "Doc" Halladay, Toronto's soft-speaking, soft-throwing Ace, who has quietly accumulated a record of 112-56. That's right, exactly a 2-1 ratio of wins to losses. Among active pitchers with 100 or more decision, only Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez post better winning percentages. More impressively, however, among ALL pitchers in baseball history, Roy Halladay ranks 13th, ahead of legends like Sandy Koufax, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson. And, as he is only an inning away from shutting out the Rangers as I'm writing this, it appears that number will be edging up.

At age 31, this is Doc's 10th major league season. He is a pitcher who relies on control, movement, an impenetrable calm on the mound, and an absurd ability to roll a ground ball almost every time the situation dictates. Much like Greg Maddux, he actually urges the opposition to put the ball in play by working quickly and throwing strikes. One of the reasons he goes unnoticed is that he hasn't struck out more than 140 hitters since his Cy Young season in 2003. It is also one of the reasons he has more complete games than any other pitcher in baseball over that span, and has pitched 220+ innings in four of the last six season. His ambivalence towards velocity suggests an ability to pitch effectively for at least another decade, quite possible deep into his forties (again, like Maddux). That would give him an outside shot at 300 wins and a ticket to the hall of fame.

Halladay, quietly, as always, signed a $40 Million extension in 2006 (more than a season before his contract expired) which keeps him in Toronto through 2010. Doc's presence is a big reason why Toronto had one of the best rotations in baseball last season and is likely to be even better in 2008, as Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan mature (and, hopefully, A. J. Burnett stays healthy). If Toronto does make a run at the postseason this year, it will be because the backend of the Blue Jay rotation takes cues from the Doctor.

When do you worry?

Although the optimism regarding the Tigers may have been a bit extreme, considering their obvious bullpen concerns and additional question marks in the rotation, nobody could have predicted they would start the season 1-8 and be the lowest scoring team in the American League. Detroit was repeatedly booed during the final games of their winless homestand to open the season, which is, in my opinion, inexcusable. The fans of the Tigers and Cubs (who were also booed on occasion at Wrigley Field last season) would do well to remember the decades of mediocrity which preceded a renewed dedication to winning on the part of their franchises. Such vulgar fairweather displays will make Detroit's return to the postseason this October much less sweet. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN has a good piece about teams which have recovered from similar (or worse) situations that Detroit, many of them within the last few years.

This week, however, I'm taking a look at some of the individuals who are getting booed or, at least, having April slumps which are getting noticed.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

Big Papi's average has dropped to .077 and he has only three hits and one homer in his first 40 at-bats. There has been a lot of speculation about the lingering effect of his off-season knee surgery. This is definitely a good opportunity to preach patience. April has generally been a problem month for Papi. In 2003, Ortiz hit only .212 with a single dinger. Along with several of the Red Sox, he may be suffering from prolonged jet lag after the opening road trip that would've made Jule Verne proud. Big Papi, like Albert Pujols, is a professional hitter who is more-or-less slump-proof. He will start punishing pitchers shortly.

Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

One thing I'm sure of, Prince Fielder's April power outage is not, as widely hypothesized, a result of his decision this offseason to become a vegetarian. If you see Fielder with sallow cheeks, twiggish forearms, and no gut, you can begin blaming his diet, but I watched him drive a ball into the gap against the Mets this evening and nothing about him looked malnourished. This is simply the case of a young, supremely-talented hitter coming off a breakout MVP-caliber campaign and trying to do too much in the early going, much as Ryan Howard did last year. You, remember, right? Ryan Howard hit only three homers in April last year. Oh, you don't? That might be because he had 44 HR and 123 RBI during the next five months. Maybe he should give Prince a call, tell him what he started eating for dinner.

Russell Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' sparkplug is batting .156 and has already struck out ten times in the young season.  He struck out less than 90 times in more than 600 plate appearances in 2007.  I would love to say that this is not cause for concern, but Martin's heavy workload for last season might be catching up to him.  Very few catchers have been able to play 145 games a season and maintain their offensive performance.  Jason Kendall did for a few years, but suffered a dramatic drop-off in both power and speed before he had even turned 30.  Joe Mauer struggled with injuries a year after posting his first 140-game campaign.  Even that mighty I-Rod has suffered four years of declining SLG%.  Martin has on his side that he is only 25, is a tremendous athlete, and didn't start catching full-time until 2004, so he doesn't have an entire lifetime of wear-and-tear on those knees.  Hopefully, he will respect Joe Torre's desire to rest him more consistently.

Andruw Jones - CF - Los Angeles Dodgers

What was supposed to be a strength for L.A., has turned out to be a major weakness in the early going.  Outfielders Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Juan Pierre have combined for a single home run, six runs, and twelve RBIs.  None of them have an average above .278 or an OPS above 750.  Just for comparison: right down the road in Anaheim, the Angels outfield foursome has combined for 11 HR, 25 run, and 26 RBIs.  None of them has a OPS below 800.  

Andruw has been the biggest disappointment.  Coming off the worst year of his career, he has begun 2008 batting .114 with one extra-base hit and 1 RBI.  He looks lost at the plate, going 1-for-17 with 8 Ks in the last five games.  For me it is hard to believe that a player of Andruw's caliber could be declining at age 30, but unless he turns this season around pronto, that's what we will have to conclude.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Cleveland Indians

C. C. has started the season going 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in three starts.  I hate to say it, but this is what the Indians get for making him throw 255 inning last season.  Pitchers, even pitchers as good as Sabathia, break down after throwing that much.  The good news for the Indians is that the presence of Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller means they can give Sabathia a bit of an in-season vacation and still be very competitive.  They will be best served by getting him on the D.L. shortly, if things don't improve dramatically in his next couple starts, and bringing him back renewed and refreshed a month or so down the line.

Bold Predictions (American League)

Detroit has fallen to 0-5, being man-handled by the Royals and White Sox. The Yankees are in danger of being swept by their arch-rival...the Tampa Bay Rays. Are these flukes or omens? Here's my preview of the American League.

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. New York Yankees
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

I've been forecasting the end of the Yankees run of postseason appearances for several years, never to any avail, obviously, but I look at New York and again see a team that, despite massive offensive potential, failed to address the issues that very nearly kept them out of the playoffs in 2007. They've got a shaky rotation and a shakier bullpen. Yankee fans will cite the arrival of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain as indicators of inevitable improvements in the pitching staff, but beware this heavy reliances on very young, very inexperienced arms. While Joba was truly dominant late last season and probably will be again as Mo Rivera's set-up man, the Yankees pitching was actually worse in the second half of 2007 (during the vaunted arrival of the Baby Yanks) than it was before the All-Star Break. Unlike the Red Sox and Blue Jays, the Yankees do not have strong candidates to step into the rotation in case of injuries or ineffectiveness, nor do they have a bevy of strong bullpen arms. Once again, all three of these teams will be very difficult opponents (as will the Rays, with their renovated rotation), but I surmise that pitching will make the difference, and Toronto and Boston hold the advantage in that department.

Division MVP: David Ortiz (Red Sox)
Division Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Blue Jays)
Division Rookie of the Year: Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
Sleepers: A. J. Burnett, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin McGowan, Cliff Floyd, Jon Lester, Coco Crisp

AL Central:

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians (Wild Card)
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

There are no patsies in the AL Central. Each of these teams is full of talent, with lots of potential on both sides of the baseball. The Royal and Twins will probably suffer some rough stretches with their young rotations (especially since they have to face incredibly deep lineups), but pitchers like Zach Greinke, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Bannister aren't far away from being dependable, quality starters.

Detroit's shaky relief corps could keep them from living up to expectations (some analysts are already talking about scoring records). If Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya cannot return and be at full strength by June and Zach Miner and Denny Bautista don't mature into competent middle-inning guys, the Tigers will need to mortgage more of their deep farm system to patch up the 'pen. The Indians team may not be as sexy, since they don't have big-ticket free agents like Sheffield, Cabrera, and Willis, but they do have a deeper pitching staff and a lineup that is remarkable in its own right.

Chicago could be the darkhorse in this race. Nearly every member of the White Sox underachieved in 2007, so even without the additions of Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Octavio Dotel, and Scott Linebrink the Sox would be good bets to be among the most improved teams in the league. Chicago is going to hit and they have an impressive collection of power arms in the bullpen. The starting rotation will end up dictating whether or not they are serious contenders. With the exception of Mark Buehrle, it is a staff full of underachievers. Veterans like Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras who have not lived up to perennial Ace status and top prospects like Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks who are short on options and have yet to produce in the big leagues. Even Buehrle, only 29, who posted five consecutive seasons of at least 14 wins and 220 innings to go with an ERA well under 4.00 from '01 to '05 has shown signs of premature decline the last two seasons (22-22, 4.31 ERA). In 2005 the White Sox came out of nowhere to be the best team in baseball. The division is much better now, so I don't think they can do the same thing again, but they aren't going to get rolled over by good teams the way they did last season (18-33 against playoff-bound teams).

Division MVP: Gary Sheffield (Tigers)
Division Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Tigers)
Division Rookie of the Year: Billy Butler (Royals)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Cliff Lee (Indians)
Sleepers: Javier Vazquez, Franklin Gutierrez, Gil Meche, Alexei Ramirez, Jensen Lewis

AL West:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

This is probably the easiest division to forecast. Seattle made it more interesting when they went out and got Erik Bedard. They now possess a formidable pitching staff to go with a respectable lineup. However, L.A. (of Anaheim) still has to be the clear favorite. Even with Kelvim Escobar out until at least mid-season and John Lackey missing a few starts to begin the year, the Angels have plenty of pitching. Jered Weaver is on the cusp of excellency and before last season Ervin Santana was considered equally promising. The addition of Torii Hunter and improvements from Gary Matthews, Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Mike Napoli with easily give the Angels the best lineup in their division. Plus, the Angels always strong farm system can buoy the major-league club with promising rookies like Nick Adenhart, Brandon Wood, and Hank Conger as the season unfolds.

Division MVP: Vladimir Guerrero (Angels)
Division Cy Young: Jered Weaver (Angels)
Division Rookie of the Year: Wladimir Belentien (Mariners)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Ervin Santana (Angels)
Sleeper: Adrian Beltre, Rich Harden, Howie Kendrick, Milton Bradley, Jose Lopez, Emil Brown

Bold Predictions (NL)

We're five days into the regular season and it appears that the Kansas City Royals and the Washington Nationals are the best teams in baseball, Blake DeWitt is on pace to win a batting title, and Rich Harden is headed for that long-awaited Cy Young season. Perhaps it is unfair for to have waited this long to make my "preseason" predictions. Nonetheless, I hope you'll forgive me this small advantage and I'll promise not to pick Xavier Nady as MVP.

NL East:

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

Pedro Martinez's hamstring has many experts and at least as many Mets fans declaring a state of emergency in New York, as the Mets will have to rely on pitchers like Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey. While I understand that El Duque is not the pitcher he once was and that Pelfrey has yet to live up to his top-prospect billing, but the Mets primary competition, Philadelphia and Atlanta, aren't exactly famous for their rotation depth. The Phillies are relying on Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton, and Jamie Moyer at the back-end, while the Braves feature Jair Jurrjens and 42-year-old Tom Glavine, that is, after the return of Chuck James, Mike Hampton, and John Smoltz, who are all beginning the season on the D. L. as well. Atlanta has been getting a lot of love from Peter Gammons and the ESPN crew, but I see a team without a single establish bullpen arm, relying heavily on Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar in their sophomore seasons, and with only one legitimate offensive threat in the outfield (Jeff Francoeur). While the Phillies have a ton of offense, they also have serious bullpen issues (to go along with the shakiest rotation of any NL contender). Meanwhile, the Mets have Jorge Sosa, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, and Billy Wagner, half-a-dozen arms, any of which would be regularly pitching in the eighth or ninth in Philadelphia or Atlanta. And, lest we forget, it isn't like the Mets are short on offense.

While Washington's hot start isn't likely to last (Do you see Tim Redding and Odalis Perez winning 15 games apiece?), they may be ready to make a serious run at .500. They won 73 games last year, without Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Nick Johnson, Elijah Dukes, Christian Guzman, Paul Lo Duca, and Perez, all of whom represent at least modest upgrades over their predecessors. Young pitchers like Shawn Hill, Jason Bergmann, and Matt Chico have a full year of big-league experience, while cast-offs from other franchises (Perez, Dukes, Pena, Milledge, etc.) all have something to prove. The increased competitiveness of Washington will make it more difficult for their NL East foes making runs at the Wild Card.

Division MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
Division Cy Young: Johan Santana (Mets)
Division Rookie of the Year: Brandon Jones (Braves)
Division Comback Player of the Year: Nick Johnson (Nationals)
Sleepers: Jeremy Hermida, Jeff Francoeur, Nick Johnson, Pedro Feliz, Angel Pagan

NL Central:

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers (Wild Card)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Houston Astros
6. St. Louis Cardinals

I previewed this division a few weeks ago and I don't see any reason to change my choices. I will admit that I am a bit worried about choosing the Cardinals to finish in the cellar. They haven't finished last during the Tony LaRussa era (1996-Present) and LaRussa and Duncan have a history of making something out of nothing, especially with pitchers like Matt Clement, Joel Pineiro, Braden Looper, and Kyle Lohse. And, when management comes to its senses and hands centerfield over to Colby Rasmus, the outfield of Rasmus, Rick Ankiel, and Chris Duncan/Brian Barton could develop into an offensive and defensive strength.

The Cubs and Brewers will benefit from beating up on the weak rotations in Houston, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, which is why I think they might squeak past strong teams in the East and West (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Arizona, Colorado, etc.) which will spend a lot more time beating up on each other.

Division MVP: Derrek Lee (Cubs)
Division Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
Division Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Miguel Tejada (Astros)
Sleepers: Geo Soto, Manny Parra, Yadier Molian, Zach Duke, Steven Pearce, Colby Rasmus

NL West:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Colorado Rockies
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

I've preached the importance of depth, particularly pitching depth, repeatedly over the last year, and depth is the primary reason I predict the Dodgers to surpass the three teams that finished (slightly) ahead of them in the West last season. They've got consistent and underrated top-of-the-rotation studs, Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, a probable future Ace, Chad Billingsley, and a bevy of talented arms fighting to be part of the back end of the rotation (Hiroki Koruda, Estaban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Chan Ho Park, Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald, and Hong-Chih Kuo). Whereas Colorado, Arizona, and San Diego can ill afford injuries to their starting pitchers, the Dodgers will never struggle to find somebody to fill-in. Similarly, as has already been demonstrated by Blake DeWitt's strong performance at third base and Andre Ethier's assumption of the starting job in left field, the Dodgers are sitting on several young players who, while not future stars, perhaps, are solid major-league regulars. Andy LaRoche, Chin-Long Hu, Tony Abreu, and Delwyn Young are all rookies who will give L.A. productive at-bats when needed sometime this season.

While both Arizona and Colorado will give L.A. good competition this year, I don't expect either of them to repeat their 90-win performances of a year ago. Colorado, especially, will have trouble filling out their starting rotation. And, while Troy "the Toolbox" Tulowitski is worthy of the future-star status being heaped upon him, expect some drop-off in his offense. Sophomores forced into leadership roles often suffer slight setbacks and Tulowitski (unlike, say, Ryan Braun) is not so supremely talented that he will make adjustments swiftly and almost unconsciously at the major-league level. If their pitching (including Randy Johnson) remains healthy throughout the season, the D-Backs have the best chance to upset the Dodgers. Arisona's offense really struggled last year, yet thanks to great pitching (especially from the back-end of the bullpen bullpen), they managed to win anyway. I wonder whether the won't feel the loss of Jose Valverde in the 9th. Arizona had the best save percentage in the NL last season. Will Brandon Lyon or Tony Pena handle the pressure as well without Big V finishing game out? The good news is it seems hard to believe that the D-Backs won't be better at scoring runs. Only Eric Byrnes seems likely to suffer and offensive set-back, while Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Chris Snyder, Chris Young, and Chad Tracy all seem primed for breakout years. If Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton also develop quickly at the major-league level, Arizona could suddenly have a lineup which rivals L.A. and Colorado for depth.

At the bottom of the division, San Diego and San Francisco boast perhaps the two worst lineups in all of baseball (with S.F. taking the field with quite possible the worst starting lineup of my lifetime). However, neither will be an absolute patsy, because they have two the the league's best rotations. Jake Peavy, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Chris Young, and Greg Maddux are all safe bets for around 15 wins. And, Barry Zito, Randy Wolf, Jonathan Sanchez, Noah Lowry, and Mark Prior are capable of dominating with some regularity as well. What that means is that San Diego and San Francisco will be taking a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games from the division's top teams, making it more difficult for them down the stretch. Perhaps, like Colorado last year, somebody will get hot and leave all other wild card competitors in the dust, but such seasons are very rare. Much like the 2005 Indians and the 2006 Tigers, I think Arizona and Colorado are going to need another year to improve upon their breakout seasons.

Division MVP: Matt Holliday (Rockies)
Division Cy Young: Brad Penny (Dodgers)
Division Rookie of the Year: Chase Headley (Padres)
Division Comeback Player of the Year: Andruw Jones (Dodgers)
Sleepers: Matt Kemp, Chris B. Young, Stephen Drew, Andre Ethier, Jason Schmidt, Chad Tracy

Bold Predictions (Preseason Fantasy Sleepers)

We've all read about Jay Bruce, Geovany Soto, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Phil Hughes. I try to give you some background on players (not necessarily rookies) who seem to be getting overlooked in drafts and in the preseason coverage. Most of these guys are good bets even for 10-team 5 X 5 mixed leagues, but some of them should probably be reserved for those deep keeper league afficianados, of which there are plenty.

Matt Kemp (RF/Dodgers), Chris Young (CF/Diamondbacks), Jeremy Hermida (RF/Marlins), Jeff Francouer (RF/Braves), Jered Weaver (SP/Angels), & Ian Snell (SP/Pirates)

I know these guys aren't exactly "sleepers" in the traditional sense. Kemp, Francouer, and Young are going in the first ten rounds in most drafts, with Hermida, Weaver, and Snell following five or so rounds later. But, remember, many of us won leagues last year on the backs of guys like Prince Fielder, Nick Markakis, Alex Rios, Russell Martin, and Dan Haren. None of them were "unknown" commodities either, but they all fell into the middle rounds, then provided early-round numbers. Now they're all considered Top 50 commodities. All six of these players are 25 or younger, so even though they've logged as many as three full seasons, they've still got plenty of time to mature. In keeper leagues, several of these guys may be left on the board. I'm telling you this much: they won't be there next year. Get while the gettin's good. I think Kemp is your best bet for a Prince Fielder-style breakout year (of course, such things don't happen every season).

Colby Rasmus (CF/Cardinals), Manny Parra (SP/Brewers), & Steven Pearce (OF/Pirates)

Did you know that half of the Rookie of the Year winners from this decade started the season in the minor leagues, including guys like Ryan Howard, Ryan Braun, and Dontrelle Willis? Before you spend a mid-round pick on early favorites like Evan Longoria (3B/Rays) and Joba Chamberlain (P/Yankees), consider waiting and snagging one of these fellows at the end of the draft. They have both already been optioned to AAA, but they'll both find their way into a starting role sometime this season. With a little luck (trades, slumps, injuries...Yippee!) it could be sooner rather than later and they both have the potential to start hitting the moment the put on the uniform. Pearce hit 31 HR and had a 1016 OPS between three minor league levels in 2007 and finished the season by hitting .294 during a brief trial in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are converting him to the outfield because Adam LaRoche is entrenched at first base. Pearce is athletic enough to be decent in left, but he is going to need a month or so of seasoning. Once he's ready, I don't think Xavier "Always on the Block" Nady will be too big an obstacle. Rasmus is only 20, but seems to be mature beyond his years. He's disciplined (380 OBP, 80% SB%) and extraordinarily powerful (29 HR at AA in 128 G). The Cardinals have decided to start the season with Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Brian Barton, and Ryan Ludwick in their outfield rotation (perhaps so that they don't start the arbitration clock too early on Rasmus), but this isn't exactly a veteran corps. Rasmus could probably outplay any of them tomorrow. Parra has a chance to stay with the Brewers thanks largely to the injury suffered by Yovani Gallardo and his 0.64 ERA with 15 K in 14 IP this spring. He should probably be regarded as highly as guys like Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, and Clayton Kershaw, but he doesn't get the press. Even if you've already had your draft, he's probably still on the waiver wire. Again, this is one of those get while the gettin's good situations.

Melky Cabrera (CF/Yankees), Coco Crisp (CF/Red Sox), Jon Lester (SP/Red Sox), & Jason Giambi (1B/Yankees)

It's harder to find sleepers on the "Baseball Tonight" teams. Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, and Ian Kennedy (They're all rookies, remember!) are getting drafted way too early in most leagues because of their notoriety. These are the guys that are falling through the cracks. In ESPN fantasy leagues, four of the five rookies listed above (all but Kennedy) are going ahead of all four of the guys I'm recommending. Melky is only 23, but he's logged 1000 MLB at-bats and during a 64-game stretch last season he batted .335 with 38 RBI and an 859 OPS. Now he's being handed a everyday job in one of the most potent lineups in history. Don't you think he's got a better chance of making a contribution to your fantasy team than Ellsbury, who is older, but hasn't adjusted to the big leagues yet and hasn't any more impressive minor league stats than Cabrera? Moreover, don't you think a guy who suffered from injuries last season, but hit 30+ HR in seven of the previous eight years might be worth more than a late-round flier? Sure, Giambi is 37, but given 500 AB, he can still produce like a premier slugger. Finally, I include Coco Crisp because he's likely to find a new home sometime early this season (Chicago? San Diego? Cleveland?) and he'll have something to prove if he does. He stole 28 bases in 34 attempts last year, so he's an inexpensive source of speed and before moving to Boston he seemed to be developing some power (15+ HR in '04 and '05). He's only 28, so don't give up on him quite yet.

Yadier Molina (C/St. Louis) & Chris Snyder (C/St. Louis)

Especially for deep leagues that require two catchers, these are some guys to keep your eye on. Yadi has been pegged as a defensive specialist, ala his mentor, Mike Matheny, but he's only 24 and his brother, Bengie, didn't start developing his power stroke until his late twenties. This is Yadi's fifth season in the major leagues and he's already a gold glove caliber defender, so he's going to get his plate appearances. During August last season, after he recovered from his injury, he batted .341 with 4 HR and 15 RBI. One month does not a hitter make...but Molina is worth considering in your deeper leagues. Snyder is entering that magical 27-year-old season and last year he had twice as many homers as any other season in his career. He'll battle another very deep sleeper, Miguel Montero, for playing time in Arizona, but, again, if you have to draft a second catcher, you're better off with him than a worn-down veteran like Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, or Brian Schneider.

Elijah Dukes (LF/Nationals)

I've been a fan of Dukes for a couple years now. Maybe I am just a sucker for brothers who are down on their luck and have something to prove, but nobody can deny Dukes talent. He may be a loose canon off the field, but he is disciplined at the plate (nearly as many walks as strikeouts in '06 and '07). And although he was below the Mendoza line during his brief stint with Tampa Bay last year, he hit 10 dinger in less than 200 AB, which gives you insight into his raw power. With Wily Mo Pena (another sleeper slugger) on the DL to start the season, it looks like Dukes will get an opportunity to show the Nationals what he can do.

Tony Pena (RP/Diamondbacks) & Matt Lindstrom (RP/Marlins)

If you're like me, than you are always on the look out for ways to scavenge saves. Pena and Lindstrom are both hard-throwing young relievers who dominated in set-up roles and are working in front of closers (Brandon Lyon & Kevin Gregg) who don't exactly have a Masterlock on their positions. Pena and Lindstrom are necessarily more talented than Scot Shields, Brian Fuentes, or Manny Delcarmen, who are great relief choices for leagues that value Holds, but they are more likely to get a shot a saves sometime this year.

Bold Predictions (NL Central)

Branded baseball's worst division in 2007, the pride(s) of the midwest suggested they had something to prove this offseason. Houston, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Chicago were all among the most active teams, both via trades and free agency. Meanwhile, it is also a division which is stockpiling young talent. Cincinnati's Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Homer Bailey, Pittsburgh's Steven Pearce, St. Louis' Colby Rasmus, and Milwaukee's Manny Parra are all among the most highly anticipated rookies of 2008. On paper at least, every team in the division except St. Louis looks better this spring than they did last fall, so let the prognostications begin!

6. St. Louis Cardinals

This offseason, though the Cardinals resigned Tony LaRussa, they lost GM Walt Jocketty and many of the remaining familiar faces from the 2006 World Champions. David Eckstein, the World Series MVP, signed with Toronto. Scott Rolen followed him in a trade for Troy Glaus, due to a much publicized falling out with LaRussa. Jim Edmonds returned to his native California in a trade for a mediocre prospect (David Freese). So Taguch, the fourth outfielder who gave the Cardinals 300+ good at-bats in each of the last three seasons, signed with the Phillies and Troy Percival, who came out of retirement and posted a 1.80 ERA in forty innings last year, signed with the Rays. To make matters worse, the Cardinals best remaining pitcher and best remaining hitter are both facing serious injuries. A reconstructive elbow surgery will keep 2005 Cy Young, Chris Carpenter, out until at least July and likely won't be fully rehabilitated until 2009. Albert Pujols, the 2005 MVP, is also suffering from an elbow injury which effects his throwing but not his hitting. He plans on remaining in the lineup to begin the season, but if the injury worsens or the Cardinals fall out of contention, he will probably shut it down early.

These significant losses, combined with the fact that the Cardinals didn't look to make any splashy free agent signings, suggest that Tony LaRussa and the redbirds are due to spend a very abnormal year in the NL Central cellar. There are a few reasons for optimism. Yadier Molina, only 25 and entering his fourth full year in the big leagues, showed signs last year that his offense is catching up with his immense defensive skills. Despite an injury, he matched his career numbers across the board and posted new highs in Average, OBP, and SLG. He was especially strong in August, when he hit .341 with 4 HR and 15 RBI. Cardinal fans can also get excited about young outfielders Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Brian Barton, and Colby Rasmus. Rasmus is among the best prospects in baseball and potential Rookie of the Year candidate as he will presumable take over for Edmonds in center field on Opening Day.

LaRussa and Dave Duncan will again be looking to assemble a rotation from spare parts. But the quality of the scrap is better than it was in 2007. From the group of Mark Mulder, Joel Pineiro, Anthony Reyes, Braden Looper, and Matt Clement they will try to find three quality starters who will eventually slot in behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The success of this search will be essential to making the rebuilding process in St. Louis short and sweet.

MVP: Albert Pujols (will outperform all his teammates even if shut down in early August)
Cy Young: Adam Wainwright (2.71 ERA after the All-Star Break)
Rookie: Colby Rasmus (932 OPS at AA, at age 20!)
Sleepers: Anthony Reyes, Brian Barton, Yadier Molina

5. Houston Astros

The 'Stros had one of the most remarkable offseasons in recent memory. All told, they added eleven players who will likely start the season on the 25-man roster, while giving up thirteen players who will probably find homes with other big-league clubs. Now that it's all said and done, however, it's hard to see how Houston is significantly better. Sure, they upgraded at short with the addition of Miguel Tejada (who replaces Adam Everett). But that is the only obvious improvement. At third base, they gave up Mike Lamb for Ty Wigginton. Their career OPSs are almost identical (766 v. 776) in almost the exact same number of at-bats. Wigginton provides a bit more power, while Lamb is a more consistent hitter with better plate discipline. They both give you mediocre defense at a couple different positions. At second base, Houston replaced Astros' legend Craig Biggio with Kaz Matsui. Kaz should be a little better than Biggio has been for the past two seasons, but he is still a slap-hitting leadoff man with no power who plays decent defense. In the outfield, they gave up Luke Scott (.255-18-64) and brought in Micheal Bourn. Bourn had only 119 AB in his rookie campaign, but stole 18 bases in 19 attempts and he wasn't afraid to take a walk. He could be a remarkable leadoff hitter and allows Hunter Pence to move to right field, but he's very unproven and certainly won't replace Scott's power production. In the bullpen, Houston traded for Jose Valverde and Geoff Geary, signed Doug Brocail and Oscar Villareal, while they unloaded Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, and Dennis Sarfate. It's a different looking bullpen, but I don't see how the results will be drastically better. Valverde is coming off a remarkable season (similar to the one Brad Lidge had in 2005), but, like Lidge, he has a history of inconsistency, wildness, and a susceptability to the long ball. None of the new middlemen are equal to the combination of Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler (traded to the Rays late last season), so the bridge to Valverde won't be any less rickety than it was before.

It is a team which looks remarkably like the one which went 73-89 in 2007. Sure, the core of the lineup - Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman - is pretty intimidating, but Bourn, Pence, and rookie catcher, J. R. Towles remain unproven. More importantly, Houston did nothing to improve on their biggest weakness, the starting rotation. The four pitchers who are predicted to follow Roy Oswalt went a combined 27-37 last season, as Astros starters were 10th in the NL in ERA. On paper, it is among the worst rotations in the league, challenged only by the Nationals and the Marlins. If Houston thought they were building a contender for this season, that's a major oversight.

MVP: Carlos Lee (a perennial sure thing for 30 HR and 100 RBI)
Cy Young: Roy Oswalt (only Pedro and Johan have better W% among active pitchers)
Rookie: J. R. Towles (not much to get excited about, yet)
Sleepers: Micheal Bourn, Miguel Tejada, Wandy Rodriguez

4. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are a popular "sleeper" team this spring, and for good reason. They have a new manager (Dusty Baker), two front-of-the-rotation horses (Aaron Harang & Brandon Arroyo), a marquee free agent closer (Francisco Cordero), a legendary veteran (Ken Griffy Jr.), a bonafide slugger (Adam Dunn), the newest member of the 30/30 club (Brandon Phillips), and half a dozen top prospects (Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez). With Baker at the helm, the Reds will have something to prove and could make an assault on .500. However, they are still one shortstop and a couple of bullpen arms away from real contention. Great American Smallpark is an unforgiving place. Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Matt Belisle, and even Arroyo will be subjected to some short outings. The young starters will have their meddle tested and the bullpen will get a lot of work. Cubs fans will remember, this is not necessarily an area of strength for Baker. The Reds will score a ton of runs in '08, maybe the most in the division, but they'll give up just as many.

MVP: Brandon Phillips (for what he does with the glove as well as the bat)
Cy Young: Aaron Harang
Rookie: Jay Bruce
Sleepers: Edwin Encarnacion, Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates also have something to prove, although they haven't been getting nearly as much attention. The need to fend off the "Curse of Barry Bonds," in the form of their record-breaking 16th straight losing season. It'll be tight, but I think they have the tools to do it. Most importantly, an unappreciated starting rotation. The quartet of Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Paul Maholm are entering their third season in the big leagues, no longer as prone to the growing pains that will plague Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez (not to mention, the Pirates have a more forgiving ballpark). In their first two seasons they went 70-86 with a combined ERA around the league average. This year they will all be 25 or 26 with 300+ innings of major league experience. Both Gorzelanny and Snell showed the potential to dominate during stretches last season. Snell had a 1.64 ERA in his final five starts, while Gorzelanny started the season by going 6-3 with a 2.53 ERA in his first dozen starts. Snell finished 7th in the NL in strikeouts, tied with Carlos Zambrano and Cole Hamels (pretty good company!). As they find their rhythm more consistently over the course of a full season, the two could be among the better 1-2 combos in the National League. Duke, who made a great first impression by going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his rookie year, regressed in '07, largely due to injury, but when he returned from the DL in September he showed positive signs, posting a 3.86 ERA over 14 IP. Paul Maholm also showed his potential during the summer when he went 6-6 with a 3.50 ERA over a run of twelve starts. If this quartet, tutored by the crafty innings-eating veteran , Matt Morris, can take it to the next level in 2008, the Pirates will narrowly avoid a embarrassing entry in the history books. They will have enough assistance from the promising young offensive catalysts Jose Bautista, Nyjer Morgan, and Steven Pearce and the proven commodities like Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, and Jason Bay. Pittsburgh, not Cincinnati, will prove to be the "sleeper" team that dramatically breaks the .500 barrier, much as Milwaukee did in 2007.

MVP: Adam LaRoche (raised his average from .239 before the break to .312 after)
Cy Young: Ian Snell (more strikeouts in '07 than Felix Hernandez or Matt Cain)
Rookie: Steven Pearce (.333-31 HR-113 RBI at A, AA, AAA in 2007)
Sleepers: Zach Duke, Jose Bautista, Andrew McCutcheon

2. Milwaukee Brewers

A unheralded team, loaded with power, featuring 11 regulars under the age of 30, surprises everybody and nearly catches a Chicago powerhouse in the season's final weeks. Sound familiar? Of course I'm talking about the 2005 Cleveland Indians. The following season, 2006, the Indians were heavily favored to win the AL Central, or at least make the playoffs. Instead, the young team, feeling the pressure, got off to a dreadful start and finished six games short of .500. The Brewers' management have tried to prevent a similar backslide by bringing in veterans like Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall, as well as retooling the bullpen which was a source of anxiety for Ned Yost in 2007. However, Milwaukee is still relying on the oft-injured Ben Sheets to anchor a starting rotation which is still in the making. If youngsters Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra live up to their potential and some combination of Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, and Jeff Suppan give the Brewers 25 wins and 400+ innings, they'll give the Cubs a run for their money. But too much has to go perfectly for the Brewers to be a good bet to win the division. The upshot of the Cleveland analogy, however, is that there's a lot of promise on the horizon. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, J. J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Gallardo, Parra, and Bush are all under contract until at least 2010 and the Brewers have more big-league ready prospects - namely Tony Gwynn Jr. and Matt LaPorta - waiting for their opportunity.

MVP: Prince Fielder (He doesn't turn 24 until May!)
Cy Young: Yovani Gallardo (2.20 ERA in last 8 starts, injury will limit innings not effectivity)
Rookie: Manny Parra (some consider him Gallardo's equal)
Sleepers: Eric Gagne, Bill Hall, Matt LaPorta

1. Chicago Cubs

It would seem, they are division winners by process of elimination. Not so much based on what they have as what their competitors don't. The Cubs proved this theory last season when they rallied to win the Central largely because Milwaukee and St. Louis collapsed. The Cubs had a prolonged power outage in the first half, lost Soriano for a month, had dugout fist fights, were booed repeatedly by their own faithful, didn't settle on an everyday centerfielder until July, didn't settle on an everyday catcher until the postseason, and used about a hundred different starting lineups, but still had enough talent to scratch out an NL Central title. They made themselves better with the addition of Kosuke Fukudome during the offseason and can realistically expect better production from Soriano, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, Geovany Soto, and Rich Hill than they got last year. The key will be the health and effectiveness of a bullpen which was outstanding in 2007. Thanks largely to Carlos Marmol and Bobby Howry, the Cubs were 2nd in the NL in reliever's ERA. Ryan Dempster may be moving from closer to the rotation, which will put more pressure on those two, as well as Kerry Wood, Micheal Wuertz, and Scott Eyre. Pinella leaned heavily on the 'pen during his first year as Cubs manager, particularly Howry and Marmol. If they are going to be rolling on all cylinders come October, he will have to be comfortable calling on several other arms as well.

MVP: Derrek Lee (16 HR, 40 RBI, 941 OPS after the All-Star Break)
Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano (allowed 1 earned run in 12 innings with Soto behind the plate)
Rookie: Kosuke Fukudome (an on-base maching who'll hit between Soriano and Lee/Ramirez)
Sleepers: Sam Fuld, Kevin Hart, Jon Lieber