Offseason Prospectus #5: The Oakland Athletics

Last season, Billy Beane, Moneyball icon and godfather of the modern GM, uncharacteristically chased a straight. He attempted to make a run at the postseason by virtue of a strategy completely contrary to that which made him famous. He traded a blue-chip prospect (Carlos Gonzalez) for one season from an impending free agent slugger (Matt Holliday). He signed a quartet of aging injury-prone veterans - Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, Nomar Garciaparra, and Adam Kennedy. He planted his top four pitching prospects - Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, and Gio Gonzalez - in the starting rotation, even though it meant jump-starting their progress towards arbitration. He handed outfield spots to two players with low on-base percentages - Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney. Basically, he was the exact opposite of what Michael Lewis advertised way back in 2003.

Except, really he wasn't. This was Moneyball at it's core. The approach was different, but the strategy's essence was the same. Beane was playing against the market. With the economy plummeting, most GMs were reluctant to be aggressive, especially with veterans, so Cabrera, Giambi, and Garciaparra were available for relatively cheap, one-year deals. There was significant statistical evidence that the "Juiced Ball Era" was over, so speed and defense were reaching a new premium. Enter Davis, Kennedy, and Sweeney.

Other teams were becoming more and more reluctant to rush big-ticket prospects to the majors, especially pitchers, because of the cost of arbitration, but that also meant they didn't always field a team of the best possible players, and left them susceptible to AA and AAA injuries. (Nothing is worse than sending a bonus baby to have Tommy John before he's ever pitched an inning for the big-league club.) In the wake of the "Joba rules," the "Liriano rules," the Zumaya project, and the arrival of Tim Lincecum, dominant from the moment he stepped on the mound right across the Bay, Beane had to be wondering if maybe a bunch of 21 and 22-year-olds could own the AL West, especially pitching in a spacious park like the Coliseum.

He decided, while his competitors (except for the Yankees), were acting cautiously, he would go for the gold. The rationale was sound. The results were abominable. Holliday had the worst start of his career. Same for Cabrera. Giambi was even worse, to the point of being released around midseason. Garciaparra, predictably, spent most of the season on the DL, as did Oakland's two best incumbent players, Eric Chavez and Justin Duchscherer. The A's scuffled to their third consecutive losing season with the second worst winning percentage of the Beane era, despite having the second highest payroll of any team he's ever fielded.

As I said, although the chips didn't fall the way he would've liked, it's hard to fault him for trying, but I think it's safe to say, he won't play his hand that way again in 2010.

Free Agents:

Bobby Crosby (30) SS/3B
Justin Duchscherer (32) RHSP
Nomar Garciaparra (36) DL
Adam Kennedy (34) 2B

Arbitration Eligible:

Santiago Casilla (30) RHRP
Jack Cust (31) OF/DH
Rajai Davis (29) CF
Joey Devine (26) RHRP
Scott Hairston (30) OF
Michael Wuertz (31) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Chris Carter (23) 1B
Adrian Cardenas (22) 2B/SS
Tommy Everidge (27) 1B/3B
Clayton Mortensoen (25) RHSP
Eric Patterson (27) 2B/OF
Landon Powell (28) C
Brett Wallace (23) 3B

The good news is that last winter's spending spree certainly wasn't a complete waste. Beane dealt Holliday at the deadline and got back at least two quality prospects from the Cardinals, Brett Wallace and Clayton Mortenson, both of whom are likely to join the big-league club at some point next season. He sent Cabrera to the Twins for their 2nd round pick from 2008, Tyler Ladendorf, who's probably at least a couple years away from contributing.

The silver lining for the A's was that seven pitchers made nine or more starts for them in '09, none of them older than 25, and they still finished third in the league in ERA (helped a great deal by their bullpen, which finished #1). Brett Anderson made a serious case for Rookie of the Year (which was won by his teammate, closer Andrew Bailey) when he went 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA in the season's second half. Trevor Cahill threw 179 innings and finished with ten wins and a league-average ERA (4.63), despite being only 21-years-old. Gio Gonzalez struggled with control, but struck out 109 batters in 99 innings. Josh Outman, who was part of the Joe Blanton trade in '08, joined the rotation late in the year and went 4-1 with a 3.58 ERA in a dozen starts. Dallas Braden was solid (8-9, 3.89) and Vin Mazzaro showed flashes of brilliance (2.95 ERA in six June starts). It is not unreasonable to expect all of these pitchers to improve in 2010 and Beane still has Mortensen, Dana Eveland, and Edgar Gonzalez waiting for opportunities. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic when I predict that two or three years from now Anderson, Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez will have made Oakland fans forget about Hudson, Mulder, and Zito.

The real question for the Athletics is offense. Beane has had a lot of success in the past filling out his roster with useful role players. Guys who possessed one particular excellent skill set. He's still doing that. Rajai Davis is a solid center-field, leadoff type, who could easily lead the league in steals with a full season. Jack Cust is the classic low-average, high-strikeout slugger, who will belt 30 bombs and draw a ton of walks. Kurt Suzuki is a very good defensive backstop, who isn't an automatic out on offense. However, all of the really successful A's teams had at least one or two superlative hitters in the middle of the lineup, guys like Chavez, Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, and Frank Thomas. The current A's do not possess such a player, and haven't since they let Thomas walk after his last great season in 2006. Carlos Gonzalez had the tools to become such a player, but was traded to Colorado for Holliday.

Perhaps Beane is convinced that Chris Carter and Brett Wallace have that kind of high-end potential. If so, they will probably get a chance to show flickers of it this coming year. The clock is now ticking on Beane's young arms. If he wants to have a run with them like the one he put together early in this decade with the first "Big Three," he will need to bring all the pieces together in time for 2011. Even though Oakland has very little money committed going into 2010, I expect Beane will be inactive this offseason. He will give many at-bats next year to Wallace, Carter, Daric Barton, Eric Patterson, Landon Powell, and whoever else he believes could develop into an everyday player. It wouldn't surprise me if he uses valuable pieces like Cust and Mark Ellis to increase his stockpile of young talent at midseason, so that next year he will have both the money and tradable resources to acquire whatever he still needs to become a competitor for the next three or four seasons.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

RF Rajai Davis (R)

2B Mark Ellis (R)

3B Eric Chavez (L)

DH Jake Fox (R)

1B Daric Barton (L)

C Kurt Suzuki (R)

LF Eric Patterson (L)

CF Coco Crisp (S)

SS Cliff Pennington (S)

SP Justin Duchscherer (R)

SP Brett Anderson (L)

SP Trevor Cahill (R)

SP Dallas Braden (L)

SP Vin Mazzaro (R)

CL Andrew Bailey (R)

SU Brad Ziegler (R)

SU Michael Wuertz (R)

LOOGY Dana Eveland (L)

MR Joey Devine (R)

SWING Gio Gonzalez (L)

SWING Josh Outman (L)

C Landon Powell (S)

1B Chris Carter (R)

IF Aaron Miles (S)

OF Ryan Sweeney (L)

Problems with Baseball Writers

Jerry Crasnick 11/18/09

"This year the Mets' Daniel Murphy, a converted outfielder, tied for first among big league first basemen with a "plus-minus" ranking of +14. The Yankees' Mark Teixeira, who appears to set the standard for the position, ranked 17th in the same system."

Right in the middle of a column on the comparable advantages of statistics and scouting when it comes to defensive evaluations, Crasnick betrays a seeming ignorance of both sides of the argument. The metric he's referring to is John Dewan's "Fielding Bible" rankings, from Baseball Info Solutions. Crasnick misunderstands something which Dewan never fails to acknowledge in his own writing (as do other sabermetricians like James, Neyer, etc.), that there are always going to be outliers in any quantitative system, but in the interest of objective analysis, you have to report them. Those who utilize the date have to be capable to recognizing the outliers and choose either to ignore them or give them credence.

In the case of Murphy, there is of course the problem which most commonly creates statistical outliers; that is, small sample size. Murphy played only 849 innings of first base in '09, approximately 500 innings less than a full-time first-baseman like Texeira. Even the most obstinate statistician, like Dewan, would be the first to admit that anything less than a full season's worth of stats is likely to be unreliable. Which is why most of Dewan's qualitative analysis relies on three seasons worth of data. I would expect those who are comparing Jason Bay and Matt Holliday as defenders, a comparison which Crasnick features in his article, are also relying on several seasons worth of statistics, thus alleviating to some extent things like park factors, the centerfielder's range, etc.

Crasnick's statement makes the assumption that a player moving to a new position must therefore be bad at that position, at least at first. That's a generality, but not a universality. Moreover, he ignores completely the fact that although Murphy has played mostly outfield with the Mets, he was drafted as a third baseman and played several infield positions in the minor leagues. In light of that fact, he's probably more comfortable on the infield than in the outfield, which he didn't play with any regularity until he got to the big leagues. I will be the first to admit I didn't watch a lot of Mets games this season, but based on his history and the fact that he's younger and quicker than a fair number of full-time first baseman, I'm not surprised that he was above average at least at some aspects of the position.

On several occasions I've dealt with the fact that despite the euphoric laudations of many observers, who somehow had managed to miss Texeira's excellent glovework for the Angels, Braves, and Rangers, Texeira had an off-year defensively in 2009. In particular, he range declined, as did the quality of his throwing. This can be explained in a few ways. Perhaps it was sample size; maybe fewer balls were hit his way, or hit his way in throwing situations, than would be normal over the course of a season. More likely it seems to me, based on my observations, he was playing closer to the line and was more reluctant to throw than he had been in the past. This could be a result of the Yankees defensive strategy or it could be because Texeira had a minor physical problem which effected him more on defense than on offense. Regardless, he continued to be quite good at footwork around the bag, reaching for errant throws, and consistently turned the balls he did field into outs.

The problem I have with the Texeira portion of Crasnick's quote is the phrase "appears to set the standard for the position." In the midst of a column which is supposedly about various forms of evidence, Crasnick makes a declaration of superiority completely unfounded by evidence: statistical, scouting, anecdotal, or otherwise. There is a great deal of multi-year evidence to support the fact that Texeira is a very good fielder, but not a lot which would support his being head and shoulders above the rest of the field.

While I am willing to believe that many (not all, but many) organizations are finding a balance between statistics and scouting, usually probably by getting the two measures to correlate, that does not lead me to give any more credence to the unsubstantiated opinions of sportswriters (nor does it give any more distinction to the Gold Gloves, voted on by managers and coaches). Though I happen to agree with his conclusion, that evidence gained exclusively be stats or exclusively by scouting is more error-prone than the combination of the two, Crasnick's article is fraught with presumptions, logical fallacies, and evasions which do a disservice to his argument.

Offseason Prospectus #4: The Milwaukee Brewers

Not too long ago I posted about the "I-94 swap" of J. J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. At the time I presumed that Gomez would have another year prior to arbitration, but as it turned out, he squeaked into that magical "super two" class by the hair on his chinny-chin-chin. Of the 210 players up for arbitration this winter, only Mike Fontenot and Dustin Nippert have less service time than Gomez. The center-fielder won't get a massive award, but his salary will at least double, to somewhere in the vicinity of a million dollars, which makes him slightly less of a steal. Hardy, of course, will likely make at least five or six times that, so Milwaukee is still getting the "payroll flexibility" they claim to be coveting.

Free Agents:

Mike Cameron (37) CF

Craig Counsell (39) INF

Jason Kendall (36) C

Braden Looper (35) RHSP

Felipe Lopez (30) 2B

Claudio Vargas (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Dave Bush (30) RHSP

Todd Coffey (29) RHRP

Jody Gerut (32) OF

Carlos Gomez (24) CF

Corey Hart (28) RF

Seth McClung (29) RHRP

Mike Rivera (33) C

Carlos Villanueva (26) RHSP

Rickie Weeks (27) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Chris Cody (26) LHSP

Tim Dillard (26) RHP

Alcides Escobar (23) SS

Matt Gamel (24) 3B

Jonathan Lucroy (23) C

Chris Narveson (28) LHSP

Angel Salome (23) C

In the last five years, Milwaukee has become quite possibly the finest small-market franchise in the country. So far, they only have one playoff appearance to show for it, in 2008, largely because they face stiff divisional competition from the Cubs (#3 payroll in '09), Cardinals (#13), and Astros (#9), but the Brewers continually draft well, develop well, and make wise, low-risk acquisitions (Jeff Suppan aside). They have exactly one player signed beyond 2010 and his name is Ryan Braun, one of the safest long term investments in all of baseball, who they've wrapped up all the way to 2015.

GM Doug Melvin made a point of resigning legendary closer Trevor Hoffman before he had a chance to test the free agent market. $8 Million is a significant investment for Milwaukee (who had a total payroll of about $80 Million in '09), but Hoffman was excellent at the back-end of games in his first season with the Brewers and provides veteran leadership in the very young clubhouse (which is likely to lose other popular veterans Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron) and a stabilizing presence in the volatile bullpen.

The Brewers lineup is loaded. The Brewers pitching staff is not. Yovani Gallardo proved himself ready to be an Ace after the departure of C. C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but absolutely nobody stepped up to fill out the rest of the rotation. Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva still possess promising arms, but none of them posted an ERA below 6.00 as starters in '09. Not an encouraging sign. Suppan continued his precipitous early 30s decline. In each of his three years since joining the Brewers, his ERA, WHIP, and BB have gone up, while his wins, innings, and strikeouts have gone down. I defy even the most obstinate sabermetrician to find a positive indicator among his peripherals.

While the Brewers remain stocked with talented hitters in the high levels of the minor leagues, they are not replete with quality arms. Jeremy Jeffress is at least a year or two away. Tim Dillard and Chris Cody regressed at AAA, although there is still time for them to develop into fair back-end starters. Chris Capuano is still recovering from his Tommy John and, Chris Narveson, who pitched very well both at AAA and in a big-league cup of coffee in 2009 is nonetheless a 28-year-old rookie with a minor-league record of 52-66.

If the Brewers could find one top-flight starter to pair with Gallardo, they might be able to cobble together at least an average rotation, which would make them very dangerous, considering their loaded offense. John Lackey is not a good fit. He is too risky and too expensive for a club with significant financial constraints, although he might display Sabathia/Cliff Lee type dominance over the short term with a move to the National League. The Brewers might explore a Ben Sheets renaissance, if he were willing to take an incentive-laden one-year deal to re-establish his value after missing all of '09. It could be a good thing for both parties. Sheets gets to pitch in a stadium, division, and league that he is familiar with while he tries to shake off the rust, and he has a lethal Brewers lineup to take a little pressure off.

In a perfect world, the Brewers would make a run on Roy Halladay. They are among the few teams who have enough prospects to tempt the Blue Jays without completely decimating their team for many years to come. Certainly, it is nice to have a wave of fresh talent every season, as Milwaukee has had in each of the last half dozen years, but at some point they are going to have to be willing to mortgage a bit of the future in order to go for a World Series. That is, unfortunately, a fact of life for teams in the middle and lower payroll tiers. Halladay, paired with Gallardo, Braun, and Fielder, would make the Brewers one of the most feared teams in all of baseball, but he would probably cost Milwaukee at least three of their top five prospects.

Few teams have the excess of talent which makes relatively inexpensive and quality hitters like Hardy, Cameron, and Felipe Lopez expendable, but Milwaukee does. Even after a minor house-cleaning, Ken Macha will be challenged to find regular big-league at-bats for Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Mat Gamel. The Brewers will also have to decide whether they can afford to hand over full-time catching chores to Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy, both rookies. They may decided it is necessary to bring back Kendall in a more limited role. Or, they may look for a cheaper option, somebody who has more experience as a back-up, like Jose Molina, Gregg Zaun, or Ramon Castro.

Braun and Fielder have replaced Manny and Papi as the most consistent and dangerous tandem in baseball, but if the Brewers are going to make a run, the rest of the lineup will need step up. Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks both have tons of talent, but were limited by injuries in '09. They need to step up and become the Brewer's versions of Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Escobar and Gomez will give Milwaukee superior defense up the middle, with the potential to become solid bottom-of-the-lineup producers. Escobar hit over .300 in his 38 game audition in '09, but with no power (.368 SLG). He's still just 23, so there is lots of room for development. The real depth of the Brewers attack may ride on the question of whether Casey McGehee can duplicate his rookie performance. His '09 OPS was significantly higher than any he posted in the minors. If he regresses, then Mat Gamel will need to live up to his hype. His 2008 production was one of the reasons Milwaukee was comfortable parting ways with Matt LaPorta. He took a small step back at AAA, but still showed excellent power and fair plate discipline. If he becomes a legitimate five or six hole slugger, the Brewers lineup may supplant Philadelphia as the best in the NL.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

2B Rickie Weeks (R)

3B Casey McGehee (R)

LF Ryan Braun (R)

1B Prince Fielder (L)

RF Corey Hart (R)

SS Alcides Escobar (R)

CF Carlos Gomez (R)

C Angel Salome (R)

SP Yovani Gallardo (R)

SP Randy Wolf (L)

SP Manny Parra (L)

SP Dave Bush (R)

SP Jeff Suppan (R)

CL Trevor Hoffman (R)

SU LaTroy Hawkins (R)

SU Todd Coffey (R)

LOOGY Mitch Stetter (L)

MR David Riske (R)

SWING Carlos Villanueva (R)

MOP Claudio Vargas (R)

MOP Chris Narveson (L)

C Gregg Zaun (S)

IF Mat Gamel (L)

IF Craig Counsell (L)

OF Jody Gerut (L)

Offseason Prospectus #3: The Chicago White Sox

Kenny Williams, as usual, wasted no time getting his offseason started. Within a week of the end of the World Series he had already made a trade (netting Mark Teahen from Kansas City for Josh Fields and Chris Getz), resigned a veteran (Mark Kotsay), and declined the team option on another (Jermaine Dye). The trade, which surprised a few people, since it included a guy (Fields) who hit 23 HR for the White Sox at the age of 24 in 2007, seems designed to give the White Sox flexibility (Teahen can play 3B, 1B, OF, and even a little 2B) and unload a couple fading prospects who will be promised many more "developmental" at-bats with the Royals than they would've gotten with the Sox. Getz and Fields proved in '09 that they weren't really ready to be everyday players, at least not on a contending team, and the White Sox are, most definitely, one of the dozen or so franchises who enters every season with the intention to win it all.

Free Agents:

Ramon Castro (34) C

Bartolo Colon (37) RHSP

Octavio Dotel (36) RHRP

Jermaine Dye (36) RF

Scott Podsednik (34) OF

Arbitration-Eligible:

D. J. Carrasco (33) RHRP

John Danks (25) RHSP

Bobby Jenks (29) RHRP

Tony Pena (28) RHRP

Carlos Quentin (27) LF/DH

Mark Teahen (28) 3B/UT

ETA 2010?:

Tyler Flowers (24) C

Lucas Harrell (25) RHSP

Dan Hudson (23) RHSP

Brent Lillibridge (26) INF

Jhonny Nunez (24) RHRP

Clevelan Santeliz (23) RHRP

Dayan Viciedo (21) 3B

In 2009 the White Sox finished below .500 (just barely, .488) for only the second time in the last decade. Thanks mostly to their long-awaited World Series victory in 2005, the popular tandem of manager, Ozzie Guillen, and GM, Kenny Williams, will likely be steering the Pale Stockings for the foreseeable future. And, despite Ozzie's quirky, occasionally offensive personality, there is a lot to like about this South Side administration. Williams is not risk-adverse. He is willing to gamble. Sometimes those gambles pay off, as in his acquisition of Carlos Quentin prior to the 2008 season. Other times, as in the waiver claim on Sixty Million Dollar Man, Alex Rios, and the trade for Jake Peavy this fall, they don't...at least not immediately.

What Williams and Guillen clearly recognized this past season, however, was that the core which won the '05 championship and took them back to the playoffs in '08, has aged considerably, past the point of viability in many cases. The 2010 team will be considerably younger. Gone are Jim Thome (39), Jermaine Dye (36), Jose Contreras (38), and, probably, free agents Octavio Dotel (36) and Scott Podsednik (34). The new White Sox will be built around Gordon Beckham (23), Alexei Ramirez (28), Quentin (27), Rios (29), Peavy (29), John Danks (25), and Gavin Floyd (27); and led, of course, by the longtime "faces of the franchise," Mark Buehrle (31) and Paul Konerko (34). Clearly, this is a team which can easily compete in the tightly-packed AL Central. With rebounds from Peavy, Quentin, and Rios, and a couple smart moves this winter, they could match-up pretty well with the big boys of the American League.

Williams still has a few questions to answer. Center-field has been a black hole since Aaron Rowand was traded prior to the 2006 season. The good defenders (Brian Anderson, Dewayne Wise, etc.) were automatic outs, and the decent hitters (Scott Podsednik, Nick Swisher, etc.) left serious gaps in the alleys, which is a major problem when your top three starting pitchers (Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd) are all in the top 25 in the AL in fly-ball rate.

Alex Rios was brought in to help solidify the defense, while, hopefully, providing significantly better than the 530 OPS he posted after joining the team in '09. The departures of Thome and Dye give Williams flexibility. He could move the oft-injured and defensively mediocre Quentin to DH or continue to play him in left. He could go after a true centerfielder like Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp, who combined with Rios in right would dramatically help Chicago's rotation. If the brass are willing to spend, the White Sox could even make an offer on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Or, they could go back to a relatively inexpensive Thome-esque veteran, somebody like Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, or Gary Sheffield. Chicago definitely needs two OF/DH additions before the season begins, because with Fields in KC, they have no potential replacements within the system. That shouldn't necessarily be poor reflection on the White Sox system. OF/DH types are the most readily available players on the free agent market most years.

The Sox have used prospects as trade bait in recent years to an extent most teams in this era are reluctant to do, which is how they've been able to acquire major-league talent like Peavy, Thome, and Tony Pena. Somewhat surprisingly, there are still some very useful players coming up the pipeline. Teahen will hold down the third base job only until Dayan Viciedo proves himself ready. Even at the outset of 2010, he could get some competition from Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix. Williams likely sees Teahen as Mark DeRosa-lite, a guy who is a fair starter at several positions, but most useful as insurance against injuries and fatigue, a guy who's best served getting three or four starts a week.

The White Sox catcher of the future is Tyler Flowers. He could start sharing time with A. J. Pierzynski this coming season, depending largely on how the volatile Pierzynski responds. A. J. probably knows his memorable tenure in Chicago will be over when his contract expires next winter. A. J., know affectionately on the South Side as "Ass, Jack" could respond in one of two ways, either by treating Flowers as promising protege or potential saboteur. Want to make a bet?

The White Sox best youngsters are pitchers. They can safely part ways with Dotel and perhaps even consider trading Bobby Jenks (who is getting a bit expensive) knowing that D. J. Carrasco, Matt Thorton, and Tony Pena all have closer potential, and prospects Jhonny Nunez, Clevelan Santeliz, and Jon Link are ready to step into the middle innings. The White Sox Opening Day rotation is set, barring injury - Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Freddy Garcia - a very formidable staff, but if somebody struggles or falls ill, as almost inevitably happens, they have not only Clayton Richard, who posted a very admirable 9-5 record and 4.42 ERA as a starter in '09, but also Lucas Harrell and Dan Hudson. The Old Dominion alum, Hudson, drafted in '08, surged through the minors, seemingly getting better as he went, then made two decent starts (11 IP, 3 ER) with the big club in September. He will probably get the first crack at a rotation spot.

Finally, Williams and Guillen will have to figure out what to do at the top of the order. Assuming Quentin and Rios return to form, they will offer a lot of pop, alongside Konerko and Ramirez, in the middle of the lineup, but Chicago will need to put people on base in front of them. Gordon Beckham will likely hit second. He sees a fair number of pitches and doesn't strike out a lot, but he doesn't offer incredible speed or OBP. As such, the White Sox could help shape the market for this year's premier leadoff men, namely Chone Figgins and Johnny Damon, or they may got the cheap route and take a chance by trading for Juan Pierre or Wily Taveras.

Despite a somewhat disappointing finish in '09, it's not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Juan Pierre (L)

2B Gordon Beckham (R)

LF Carlos Quentin (R)

1B Paul Konerko (R)

DH Vladimir Guerrero (R) FA

RF Alex Rios (R)

C A. J. Pierzynski (L)

3B Mark Teahen (L)

SS Alexei Ramirez (R)

SP Mark Buehrle (L)

SP Jake Peavy (R)

SP John Danks (L)

SP Gavin Floyd (R)

SP Freddy Garcia (R)

CL Bobby Jenks (R)

SU J. J. Putz (R)

SU Tony Pena Jr. (R)

SU Scott Linebrink (R)

LOOGY Matt Thorton (L)

SWING Dan Hudson (R)

MOP Jhonny Nunez (R)

C Tyler Flowers (R)

IF Omar Vizquel (S)

IF/OF Mark Kotsay (L)

OF Andruw Jones (R)

Top 2010 Free Agents, by Position

I've bolded half a dozen players who will probably dictate the market. Until they've signed, most of the rest will have to wait. There will be many teams hoping to learn from the what happened in '08-'09, as players like Bobby Abreu, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, and Adam Dunn signed short, small contracts and then produced well above their pay-grade. The owners may have a more difficult time selling the "economic downturn" argument this time around.

Catcher:

1. Bengie Molina (A) 35 yrs.-old
2. Rod Barajas (B) 34
3. Ramon Hernandez (B) 34
4. Brian Schneider 33
5. Jason Kendall (B) 36

There is a strong possibility that none of the five men listed above will be resigned by their current franchises, because each team (Giants, Blue Jays, Reds, Mets, & Brewers) has a young (and inexpensive) prospect on the verge of promotion. It is possible that Kendall, considering his age and the fact that he's already pulled down over $70 Million in his career, might be willing to resign with Milwaukee at a discount and share time with Angel Salome, but I think it is unlikely that Molina or Barajas would be open to similar situations with Buster Posey and J. P. Arencibia. They will hope to be wooed by teams without either a stable veteran or a particularly promising youngster; San Diego, Houston, and Kansas City fit the bill. As do the Mets, who in all likelihood are done with the Brian Schneider experiment (680 OPS in 169 games over the last two seasons), but may not be convinced that Omir Santos (688 OPS in 96 games in '09) is the answer either. Ramon Hernandez had his worst season since 2002, suppressing his value, but at 34 he could still prove to be a cheap source of power for a team willing to use him in a utility role.

First Base:

1. Nick Johnson (B) 31
2. Adam LaRoche (B) 30
3. Aubrey Huff (B) 33
4. Hank Blalock 29
5. Russell Branyan 34

There isn't a true slugger on the market at first base this offseason, which might lead teams to make desperate bids for guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder, who names have circulated on the rumor mill on and off for the past couple seasons. There are several franchises in desperate need of output from first base - Mets, Giants, Mariners, and Orioles, for starters - who may be seduced into paying too much for one of these thoroughly mediocre options. For value, I would probably suggest the high-risk/high-reward options: Nick Johnson and Hank Blalock. Both are young-ish and have shown flickers of brilliance at times, but have been dogged by injuries. Some good luck and the right environment could catch lightening in a bottle. However, it would be downright asinine to sign any of these guys to more than a one or two-year contract.

Second Base:

1. Orlando Hudson (A) 32
2. Placido Polanco (A) 34
3. Felipe Lopez (B) 30
4. Adam Kennedy 34
5. Jerry Hairston Jr. (B) 34

Joe Torre's somewhat flabbergasting decision to go with Ron Belliard over Orlando Hudson in the playoffs may suppress O-Dog's price, again, after what was a pretty strong season overall. Hudson got off to a blistering start (he was hitting .332 on June 1) and made his second All-Star team. The general impression will be that he fell off drastically in the second-half, but that's simply not true. His power (which he has never exactly been known for) did decline, but he still hit .284 after the All-Star Break and actually raised his OBP (.363). Add in the fact that he plays a position where offensive production is scarce and remains a solid, if not spectacular, defender (he does own four Gold Gloves), and I can't see how this guy isn't valued just below the top tier of free agents this winter.

Much the same is true of Polanco, who also flashes serious leather and is still a solid contact hitter. Teams should be wary, however, that his splits have declined consistently since 2007, when he hit .341. If he suffers an equivalent decline next year, we'll suddenly be looking at a replacement-level player. In both cases, their status as A-level free agents, meaning that the team that signs them would have to give up a high draft pick, makes them more risky investments and, in Polanco's case especially, suggests that re-upping for another year with the current franchise may be the smart play for both sides.

Third Base:

1. Chone Figgins (B) 32
2. Adrian Beltre (B) 31
3. Mark DeRosa (B) 35
4. Melvin Mora (B) 38 [Assuming Orioles Buyout His Option]
5. Troy Glaus (B) 33/Joe Crede 32

Somebody really needs to explain to me how Latroy Hawkins and Marco Scutaro get A designations, while Chone Figgins, a guy who was an All-Star and has garnered MVP consideration in four different seasons (including this one, I can safely speculate), is given a B. For Figgins, it is certainly an incredible boon. As an excellent, versatile defender and one of the sport's top leadoff hitters, he was going to be one of the premier targets this offseason regardless. But the B designation could exacerbate the bidding war, as teams will be willing to pay more with the knowledge they won't have to sacrifice a top pick, as they would for anybody on their list of alternative acquisitions, like, potentially, Hudson, DeRosa, Polanco, Cabrera, Tejada, or Scutaro, all inferior players at this stage in their careers.

DeRosa and Beltre will also be pretty hot commodities. Beltre can't hope to duplicate the $64 Million contract he signed in 2005, but inserted in a quality lineup in a better hitter's park, his production would almost certainly improve and he is a premier defensive cornermen. He could easily be worth $25 Million over the next three seasons. DeRosa was a productive, popular player on both the Cardinals and the Cubs. He could fit in at second, third, or as a utilityman, versatility which is worth something. He is, on the other hand, a 35-year-old with a history of back and leg ailments who has never played 150 games in a season.

Shortstop:

1. Orlando Cabrera (A) 35
2. Miguel Tejada (A) 36
3. Marco Scutaro (A) 34
4. Alex Gonzalez 32
5. Adam Everett 33

As mentioned above, the A designation isn't doing anything to help the top three shortstops on this list, even though each is coming off of a highly productive campaign. Cabrera, who was a real spark for the Twins after coming over in a deadline deal, was a good bet to resign, until Minnesota traded for J. J. Hardy. Scutaro, who had a career year, which few people would be willing to bet on him duplicating, may be a good candidate to re-up with the Jays. Houston, on the other hand, is probably done with Miguel Tejada. His defense was atrocious in 2009 and he no longer hits for enough power to make up for it, and, of course, there were some distracting matters this past spring that the Astros probably want to put behind them. Tejada's negotiating position with other teams may be predicated on his willingness to consider a position change. Even if he doesn't, however, he's still productive enough with the bat to find employment somewhere, perhaps with the Pirates or the Royals. The latter two guys on this list, Gonzalez and Everett, may be among the few free agents whose negotiating position has improved in the last couple years. The increasing emphasis on defense from front offices will certainly help them (as it did Everett last offseason), as will the fact that they will still be cheaper (and younger) than any of the top trio of options and won't require compensation picks.

Left Field:

1. Matt Holliday (A) 30
2. Jason Bay (A) 31
3. Johnny Damon (A) 36
4. Rocco Baldelli 28
5. Garret Anderson (B) 38

The top two free agents this offseason are both power-hitting left-fielders. Both are relatively young, both have postseason experience, both have reputations as good clubhouse presences, and neither is a complete butcher on defense, driving up demand for them even further. Teams should be wary, however, since neither Jason Bay nor Matt Holliday have demonstrated the consistency of a Mark Texeira or a Miguel Cabrera, although both will be attempting to lobby for similar contracts. There is a strong chance that some franchise desperate to prove something to its fans - perhaps the Mets, Cubs, or Giants - will dramatically overpay for the cream of this watered-down crop. Indeed, some may not have a choice. Holliday and Bay look all the better because their are few good second-tier options among free agent outfielders. Johnny Damon proved himself still a very productive top-of-the-order hitter, but his defense is atrocious and he is edging toward 40.

Center Field:

1. Mike Cameron (B) 37
2. Marlon Byrd (B) 32

3. Coco Crisp 30
4. Rick Ankiel 30
5. Endy Chavez 32

As the league trends toward defense, teams are more and more likely to recognize center-fielders who aren't 30 HR threats. Franklin Gutierrez and Carlos Gomez were both targeted despite their apparent offensive limitations. That's great news for Mike Cameron, Coco Crisp, Rick Ankiel, and Endy Chavez. Expect both Chicago teams to covet these rangy glovemen. Byrd, on the other hand, hit well enough last season to be a corner outfielder, at least in the friendly confines of Arlington. Teams looking at his progressing power over the last couple seasons should be very wary of his home/road splits.

Right Field:

1. Vladimir Guerrero (A) 34
2. Hideki Matsui (B) 36
3. Jermaine Dye (A) 36
4. Xavier Nady (B) 31
5. Randy Winn (B) 36

Designated Hitter:

1. Carlos Delgado (B) 38
2. Jim Thome 39
3. Andruw Jones 33

4. Jason Giambi 39
5. Gary Sheffield 41

I'm lumping the right-fielders and designated hitters together, because with the exception of Randy Winn, it would probably be in the best interest of all these fellows never to pick up a glove in 2010, either because they are prone to injury themselves or they've got the range of a tugboat. The fact that Guerrero, Dye, Nady, Jones, and Delgado could occasionally play the field with increase their value, but they still aren't reasonable options for National League teams, as they will need regular opportunities to rest at the DH. All of these guys are capable of giving their teams good at-bats and most of them will be excellent dugout presences as well, but I expect all, with the possible exceptions of Guerrero and Matsui, all will have to wait until spring for suitors to present themselves.

Right-Handed Starting Pitchers:

1. John Lackey (A) 31
2. Rich Harden (B) 28
3. Ben Sheets 31
4. Joel Pineiro (B) 31

5. Brett Myers 29
6. Vicente Padilla (B) 32
7. Jon Garland (B) 30
8. Jason Marquis (B) 31
9. Kelvim Escobar 33
10. Carl Pavano (B) 34
11. Brad Penny 32
12. John Smoltz 43

Left-Handed Starting Pitchers:

1. Aroldis Chapman 22
2. Erik Bedard (B) 31
3. Randy Wolf (A) 33

4. Jarrod Washburn 35
5. Andy Pettitte (B) 38
6. Randy Johnson (B) 46

What was already a shallow group of starting pitchers has been made even moreso by the quick resigning of Tim Hudson in Atlanta and the D-Back's decision to pick up Brandon Webb's option. Aroldis Chapman and John Lackey are going to get very big deals, despite the fact that Chapman is a complete enigma and Lackey has won more than fourteen games only once. Starting pitching is alway in demand, so the super injury-prone (Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, and Erik Bedard), the headcases (Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, and Jason Marquis), and the geezers (Andy Pettitte, John Smoltz, and Randy Johnson) will probably all get paid. There aren't many bargains, but Kelvim Escobar, Brad Penny, and Carl Pavano probably offer the best combination of low risk and potentially high reward.

Closers:

1. Jose Valverde (A) 32
2. Rafael Soriano (A) 30
3. J. J. Putz 33
4. Fernando Rodney (B) 33
5. Billy Wagner (A) 38

Right-Handed Relievers:

1. Tony Pena Jr. 29
2. Brandon Lyon (B) 30
3. Kiko Calero (B) 35
4. Rafael Betancourt (A) 35 [Assuming Rockies Don't Pickup His Option]

5. Takashi Saito 40
6. Octavio Dotel (A) 36
7. Latroy Hawkins (A) 37
8. Bobby Howry (B) 36
9. Brendan Donnelly 38

Left-Handed Relievers:

1. John Grabow (A) 31
2. Joe Beimel (B) 32
3. Scott Eyre (B) 38
4. Darren Oliver (A) 39
5. Ron Mahay 39
6. Eddie Guardado 39

The A designation is going to crush the value of free agent relievers like Billy Wagner, Rafael Soriano, John Grabow, and Octavio Dotel. It also makes it a near certainty that veterans like Darren Oliver, Latroy Hawkins, and Rafael Betancourt will resign with their current teams. J. J. Putz is coming off two straight injury-plagued seasons, but not that long ago he was considered among the premier closers in all of baseball. He could be the best bullpen value on the market. Jose Valverde will come at a high price, but few people have noticed that he has been among the best closers in baseball over the last three seasons and currently sits at #9 in total saves among active players (167).

The Gold Gloves are Meaningless, Laughable (Part 2)

As I discussed yesterday, it is often very difficult to distinguish between the top tier of defenders. That's why I'm not going to bicker with a choice like Jimmy Rollins or Michael Bourn, because while I might prefer Mike Cameron or Rafael Furcal, there is no denying that Bourn and Rollins are in the upper echelon of NL defenders at their respective positions. In other cases, unfortunately, bickering is not only possible, but relatively easy. Here are the five most unfortunate aspects of this week's Gold Glove announcements:

5. The Gold Gloves are not without material consequences.

Yesterday I argued that the Gold Glove voters are uniquely unqualified to make the evaluations the award asks of them. Sad as this may be, one could easily argue that the individual awards presented every November should be regarded generally as meaningless, as players should be focused on team achievements anyway. Before making that argument, however, consider that many of the veterans who routinely win Gold Gloves, despite mediocre production, cost their teams money in the process. Torii Hunter will make an extra $100,000 for each Gold Glove he earns as an Angel. If he brings one home in every year of his contract, and the voters seem prone to making his award routine, than the Angels will pay out half a million dollars, more than the league minimum for rookie players, to subsidize Hunter's trophy case, despite the fact that one could easily argue that they are actually paying for the defense the Hunter played during his years in Minnesota (Hunter hasn't posted a positive UZR since 2005 and hasn't been among the league leaders at his position since 2003).

4. Do we really need to exaggerate the quality of Derek Jeter?

For years, Derek Jeter has been at the center of controversies regarding fielding statistics. Baseball Prospectus led the way in demonstrating that not only was Jeter not worthy of his Gold Gloves, but was, in fact, from 2004 until 2007 (during which time he won three Gold Gloves), the worst everyday shortstop in all of baseball. Eventually, this incredible discovery made its way into the mainstream media and even to the proud ears of Jeter himself. Many started speculating that a position change would be demanded, and soon. Even the Gold Glove voters denied him the award in '07 and '08, although at least one of their choices, Michael Young in '08, was arguably even worse.

The Yankee captain should be commended, however, because instead of becoming angry and belittling the evidence, as players are prone to do, he set about making himself better. He hired personal trainers and dedicated his offseason to improving his agility, quickness, and range. In 2008 he was an average AL shortstop defensively, which, of course, combined with his superior offensive talents, made him a very valuable commodity. And in 2009, he was even better. His 6.6 UZR* was the best of his career, as was his .986 fielding percentage. We should all note this as persuasive evidence that Derek Jeter is, in fact, deserving of his "Captain Intangibles" legacy. What it doesn't make him, however, is the best defensive shortstop in the AL. As the answer to that question, I would have accepted Elvis Andrus (10.7 UZR, .968 F%), Cesar Izturis (10.8 UZR, .985 F%), Adam Everett (8.9 UZR, .969 F%), or Erick Aybar (7.8 UZR, .983 F%). Unlike Jeter, each of these guys gets paid primarily for his glovework. It would be nice to see their dedication to that facet of the game get acknowledgement. After all, Derek Jeter takes home plenty of other hardware (see, in 2009 alone, Roberto Clemente Award, Hank Aaron Award, World Series ring, and probable Silver Slugger).

3. If you thought Mark Texeira was good this year, wait until you see what he's actually capable of.

Remember when Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove at first base even though he'd spent the entire season at Designated Hitter. It wasn't quite that egregious, but it was a little odd that Texeira's fielding reputation grew to new proportions in the spotlight of New York, even though it appeared to anybody that had been paying attention to his career throughout his tenure with Texas, Atlanta, and Anaheim that Texeira was struggling (I guess this is what happens when you follow Jason Giambi). He posted career lows in assists, range factor, and UZR. Perhaps nursing some nagging injuries, he was reluctant to throw the ball or move away from the bag. His numbers actually and embarrassingly resembled those of well-known stick-in-the-muds and DH-types, Billy Butler and Russell Branyan. He recorded less assists as a first baseman (49) than Kevin Youkilis (52), despite the fact that Youk played less than half as many innings at the position. Albert Pujols played a similar number of innings and recorded 185 assists.

Texeira will probably get better and likely will earn some Gold Gloves over the course of his career. Too bad he stole one this season from Miguel Cabrera, Kendry Morales, or Lyle Overbay.

2. Why do NL managers hate Albert Pujols and Chase Utley?

One of the grand ironies of this year's Gold Gloves is that while Jeter, Texeira, Joe Mauer, and Shane Victorino earned Gold Gloves largely based on their offensive contributions, two MVP-caliber sluggers who were actually dominant on both sides of the ball missed out, yet again. Chase Utley has now led NL 2B in UZR (by a significant margin) for five consecutive seasons. Here are his stats compared with 2009 winner Orlando Hudson and 2008 winner Brandon Phillips (who also has a case for being gypped this season):

Utley - 1357 INN, .985 F%, 408 A, 86 DP, 10.8 UZR

Phillips - 1332 INN, .988 F%, 409 A, 95 DP, 6.9 UZR

Hudson - 1272 INN, .988 F%, 359 A, 68 DP, -3.3 UZR

Hudson, certainly not a bad defender, was probably at best the fifth or sixth best second-baseman in the NL this season. Utley was the best and Phillips has been his only near competition for a long time now. For anybody else to win is frankly atrocious.

The Pujols case isn't quite as bad. Adrian Gonzalez is a very solid defender, but Pujols has in some ways changed how first base is played. He has led the league in range by a long shot in each of the last two seasons, mainly because he continues to play deeper and further from the bag than anybody else, without giving up a greater number of hits down the line. He changes the whole infield dynamic by giving converted outfielder Skip Schumaker some leeway to protect up the middle. He also gives himself the opportunity to range deep into foul territory to catch pop-ups, thus allowing Ryan Ludwick to play deeper and further off the line. Pujols dominance shows up in range factor (10.4 when the next best guy is at 9.7), assists (185 when the next best guy is at 136), double plays (140 when the next best guy is at 135), and putouts (1473 when the next best guy is 1387), as well as the more substantial and complicated metrics. It's a wonder the NL voters haven't noticed.

1. There was no acknowledgement for the single most valuable defender in all of baseball, Franklin Gutierrez.

This is a true tragedy. My qualm is not some much with the fact the AL voters recognized Torii Hunter, Ichiro, and Adam Jones, all of whom are fine defenders, but that they failed to noticed Gutierrez is an absolute travesty. In his first year as a full-time centerfielder, Gutierrez posted a ridiculous 29.1 UZR, the best by any player since Andruw Jones posted a 30.0 in 2005. Like Jones, Gutierrez has deceptive speed, gliding effortlessly to balls which many, seemingly faster players have to dive for, and via extraordinary route choices expands his range to cover almost two thirds of the outfield. Unlike Jones, he will never hit 50 HR, and therefore may never catch the eye of Gold Glove voters.

Here are my Gold Glove choices:

NL:

C - Yadier Molina

1B - Albert Pujols

2B - Chase Utley

3B - Ryan Zimmerman

SS - Rafael Furcal

LF - Matt Kemp

CF - Mike Cameron

RF - Randy Winn

P - Adam Wainwright

AL:

C - Gerald Laird

1B - Miguel Cabrera

2B - Placido Polanco

3B - Evan Longoria

SS - Elvis Andrus

LF - Carl Crawford

CF - Franklin Gutierrez

RF - David DeJesus

P - Mark Buehrle

*Ultimate Zone Rating is a defensive metric from FanGraphs which combines for infielders analytical metrics for range, double play efficiency, and general efficiency (errors, etc.) and for outfielders arm strength, range, and general efficiency.

Gold Gloves are Meaningless, Laughable (Part 1)

It isn't the managers' fault. In order to make a truly informed decisions regarding the defensive awards, one would need to watch many, many games. And one would have to watch every team with equal interest and enthusiasm. Even then, one would still have to rely on a wide variety of statistical metrics to clarify and support one's observations. And, at the end of hundreds of hours of game tape and many more studying charts and graphs, it still might be impossible to substantially differentiate between the defensive acumen of Torii Hunter and Curtis Granderson.

At many positions there are distinct tiers, but distinguishing between players in those tiers is largely impossible. A perusal of the Dewan Fielding Bible gives us a few reasons why. Some infielders (like Derek Jeter) may be very good at getting to ball to their right, but very poor at getting to balls on their left. Some outfielders (like B. J. Upton) may be great at tracking down deep fly balls, but merely adequate on balls hit in front of them. Some first-baseman (like Mark Texeira) are great at footwork around the bag and corralling errant throws, but aren't great at throwing themselves or ranging away from the line.

Frankly, evaluating players on other teams (which is essentially what the Gold Glove ballot demands) isn't a manager's job. He worries about his team and, to a limited degree, his current opponent. The range of the guy playing third base for Kansas City should not be among his considerations (unless he manages Kansas City). As a result, at the end of the season, when he is called upon to vote on the Gold Gloves, the manager's choices are going to be skewed heavily by two factors: 1.) reputations and 2.) the small sample size of games played against his team. If Torii Hunter made a game-saving catch against his team in July, you can be damn sure that's going to weigh heavily on a manager's mind when he's filling out his ballot in October. But, let's face it, almost every centerfielder in baseball is going to make a few spectacular plays over the course of a season. These are all great athletes after all. The highlight reels aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of exceptional defense. There are balls that Franklin Gutierrez catches with ease that land Jacoby Ellsbury on Baseball Tonight. When Jeter makes that patented jump throw deep in the hole, Rafael Furcal has his feet planted and is uncorking his rifle.

Managers are, undoubtedly, going to be prejudiced towards players who they've seen a lot of, either because they play in their division or because they are veteran stars who have been around for a long time. In the last nine seasons Ichiro has made an impression on everybody with his consistency, speed, and powerful, accurate throwing. One could easily surmise that the manager for, say, the White Sox, who only see Seattle six times a year, might just assume that Ichiro did this season what he's been known to do in each of his previous years (remember when Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove at first base even though he'd spend the entire season at DH). Rob Neyer argues, similarly, that Gold Gloves are impacted as much by a player's offensive contribution as their defensive one. Again, it is human nature to exaggerate the perfection of those that we admire. Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer are great hitters and (in many opinions, at least) likable men also, so it follows that they must be exemplary glovemen as well, right?

When I take umbrage with the Gold Gloves, it isn't so much with the voters as with the voting system. In a perfect world, who should determine the Gold Gloves? The BBWAA? The sabermetricians? Me? No, I think it would be in the best interest of the award if it was voted on by the General Managers. Think about it. In the contemporary era, front offices are increasingly concerned with a wide variety of player evaluations. They are expected to identify and objectively evaluate players from the whole league, so as to be prepared for trades and free agency, and so that they have a sense of the changing "market" of baseball (for instance, if the league is full of slick-fielding second-basemen, one doesn't want to overpay for one). If a GM were to spend several hours (or even several days) filling out his Gold Glove ballot; if he demanded some opinions from his staff of scouts and statisticians; if he watched a few reels of film, etc., etc., he could say with great confidence that knowing who the best defenders in baseball were was a significant and productive piece of his offseason preparations.

Broadcasting Bumbles (2009)

A few weeks ago I ranked my top broadcasting teams for the '09 season. Here is the opposite end of the spectrum, featuring, sadly, three teams with national syndication:

3. WGN/CSN Chicago - Len Kasper & Bob Brenly

Would somebody please, pretty, pretty please, hire Bob Brenly as your manager? Look at his record. It's pretty good. He's never had a losing season (he was fired before he got to the end of his worst year, in '04). In only four seasons in Arizona he brought home a pair of division titles and a championship. Players loved him. Fans loved him. He's affable, good-natured, and unflinchingly optimistic. He's got that "good ol' boy" charm.

Whatever you do, don't watch him broadcast a game! You're liable to get the impression he hasn't got the strategic capability to play Connect Four, let alone manage a ballclub. But I'm sure that's misleading. He's probably just playing possum.

2. ESPN - Jon Miller, Joe Morgan, & Steve Phillips

I have a lot of fond memories of watching Sunday Night Baseball over the last two decades. My dad and I made a habit of it all summer long through most of the nineties. He loved Joe Morgan, both as a player and a broadcaster, and thus, so did I. For several years I've been trying to figure out whether my affection for him was merely nostalgic, or whether it had been based on some element of charisma or perceptiveness which Joe has since lost. Whatever the case, Jon and Joe have not been on top of their game for several years now, something which ESPN clearly recognizes, which is why they introduced Steve Phillips to that sanctified space this season.

It did not go over well.

Every time Joe peaked at him out of the corner of his eye, Steve must have understood a little what it felt like to be Aaron Rodgers in '07. Joe clearly saw Phillips only as a whippersnapper with eyes on his job. And he's not ready to retire. Morgan was already prone to the occasional inscrutable rant, in '09 it became a weekly staple, brought on usually by a relatively obsequious comment from Phillips which Joe felt the need to virulently discredit, no matter the cost. Sometimes this dynamic was good for a laugh. Usually, it wasn't.

Well, thanks to Phillips undiscriminating libido and a young ESPN intern who spells sports with a capital CRAZY, Morgan got his wish. Will ESPN send somebody knew into the lion's den in 2010?

1. TBS - Chip Caray, Buck Martinez, Ron Darling, & Craig Sager

Chip Caray is no Skip Carary, and he damn sure ain't no Harry Caray. I never thought I'd say this, but after two seasons of TBS Postseason coverage, I'm longing for Joe Buck and Tim McCarver by the time the ALCS rolls around. Yes, there is the incessant advertising; this year George Lopez scooted across the screen every fifteen minutes, which isn't half as bad as Frank Caliendo (I hated his show before it even came on the air). Caray hawks the wares of TBS advertisers even during play-by-play: "There's a deep fly ball to center. Victorino tracked that ball down just as quickly as a Sprint 3G phone, now with GPS."

And, yes, there is an egregious East Coast bias amongst the commentators and a fair amount of preachiness. Guess what? Chip, Buck, and Ron all agree that Derek Jeter is not just good....he's grrrreat. He's got so much moral fiber, he's got to take Imodium before every game just to keep from crapping all over the diamond. But Manny Ramirez? Well, they aren't so sure about him.

Offseason Prospectus #2: The Los Angeles Angels

Angels fanatic, True Grich, made some early predictions regarding Anaheim's free agents. Well, so far he's one-for-one. Within 24 hours of the official end of the season, the Angels resigned Bobby Abreu for two years and $19 Million. Not quite the bargain basement price they got last spring ($5 Mil.) before Abreu drove in over a hundred runs for his seventh consecutive season and became a clubhouse leader and de facto batting instructor, helping several of his teammates in the pursuit of career highs.

During the ALDS against the Red Sox, Torii Hunter described Bobby Abreu as "my favorite player." Over the course of a single season, Abreu became so popular among fans and teammates that the Angels appear to have prioritized his contract over those of long time Halos like John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins. And, it's hard to fault them.

According to FanGraphs, Abreu was worth over $11 Million in 2009, for just his on-the-field production during the regular season, and has been worth at least that much in ten of his last eleven seasons, so when you factor in potential playoff production and intangibles like leadership, Abreu will likely well exceed the approximately $9 Million he'll get in each of the next two seasons (Abreu's contract also includes a $9 Mil. option for 2012, with a $1 Mil. buyout). The bad news for the Angels is that they still have a lot of work to do this offseason.

Free Agents:

Kelvim Escobar (33) RHSP

Chone Figgins (31) 3B

Vladimir Guerrero (35) DH/RF

John Lackey (31) RHSP

Darren Oliver (38) LHRP

Robb Quinlan (32) 3B/1B

Arbitration Eligible:

Erick Aybar (25) SS

Maicer Izturis (28) 2B/SS

Howie Kendrick (25) 2B

Jeff Mathis (26) C

Mike Napoli (27) C

Joe Saunders (28) LHSP

Jered Weaver (26) RHSP

Reggie Willits (28) OF

ETA 2010?:

Trevor Bell (23) RHSP

Hank Conger (22) C

Freddy Sandoval (27) 3B

Brandon Wood (24) 3B/SS

Unfortunately for the Angels, because it is a rather thin free agent class in 2010, Lackey and Figgins will both be among the five most-coveted players on the market, driving up the price of their services. And, as you can see, the Angels not only face potentially expensive free agent decisions, but also have a number of very good young players who are due for sizable raises in arbitration. It may be the winter for them to consider multi-year deals for guys like Weaver, Saunders, and Aybar.

The Angels are not a team that is reluctant to spend money, but they usually budget for one or two major free agents, not three or four. To make matters worse, for the first time in years they face some serious competition in their own division. Both the Rangers and Mariners were among 2009's most pleasant surprises, finishing with 87 and 85 wins respectively, and there is no reason to expect either will be any worse in 2010. There is no room for stepping backward if the Angels want to return to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year and the sixth time in seven seasons.

The good news for Angels fans is that they won't have to wait long to get a sense of their team's intentions. The Abreu signing is one in a long line of Angels moves made very early in the "hot stove" season. In the next couple weeks, I expect the Angels will also make reasonable offers to Lackey and Figgins, maybe others as well, and if those are rejected, will start looking elsewhere very quickly.

Vladimir Guerrero is one of the most popular (and best) players in Angels history, but his marked decline over the last two seasons, due in part to injuries, combined with the bevy of corner-outfield and DH-type players in the Angels system, may signal the end of Vladdy era. If he wants to stay in southern California, it will almost certainly require a dramatic paycut, perhaps as part of an incentive and option laden contract. Guerrero is a very proud player and he may, instead, choose to auction his services to the highest bidder, and their will be interested parties. The Angels worst nightmare is seeing the 35-year-old have a resurgent season as the DH for the Mariners (1089 career OPS @ Safeco) or Rangers (1175 career OPS @ Arlington).

Figgins is also a popular player, a career Angel with ties to the community. He is also among the best leadoff hitters in the game, in a year that several big-market teams (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, etc.) could be looking for a top-of-the-order hitter. Figgins has settled at third base over his last couple seasons in Anaheim, but if he were willing to consider the super-utility role he excelled at earlier in his career, his flexibility would probably be worth millions of dollars to some franchises.

The likelihood of a Figgins exodus is increased by the fact that the Angels have several potential replacements already in-house. Brandon Wood has been waiting awhile for the chance at an everyday job. He has slugged 20+ HR in the minors for five straight seasons (homering approximately once in every eighteen plate appearances), so it's clear there's not much left for him to prove at AAA. The Angels also have Freddy Sandoval, who was injured for much of '09, but hit .335 at Salt Lake in '08. And, they could probably work Maicer Izturis into the third base rotation, if they decide to give Howie Kendrick more at-bats against right-handed pitching.

John Lackey represents the most difficult quandary for the Angels brass. He is their undeniable Ace, yet he hasn't made thirty starts since '07 and (surprisingly) he's won more than fourteen games only once in his career. He's only 31-years-old, so his best years could still be in front of him (ala Jon Lieber), although his struggles with "fitness" could make him more like Bartolo Colon, who had his last good season at the age of 32. Because he is clearly the best free agent pitcher on the market, somebody is going to give Lackey a long-term, big-money deal, regardless of the risk. If it isn't the Angels, they will probably choose to sign a back-end innings-eater (perhaps a Jarrod Washburn renaissance?) and hope that an true Ace emerges from the trio of Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Scott Kazmir, each of whom have the talent to rise to the occasion.

Rumors that the Angels have been exploring a Milton Bradley for Gary Matthews Jr. swap, though probably unfounded (remember how well Mike Scioscia got along with Jose Guillen?), do suggest that the Angels front office will be willing to explore creative solutions this winter. They have always valued their prospects very highly, and have been rewarded for their patience with players like Santana, Juan Rivera, and Kendry Morales, but the Abreu signing and the Kazmir trade, combined with the fact that they don't have a single player signed beyond 2012, may suggest that Los Angeles is embracing a "win now" mentality.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

SS Erick Aybar (S)

RF Bobby Abreu (L)

CF Torii Hunter (R)

1B Kendry Morales (S)

DH Hideki Matsui (L)

RF Juan Rivera (R)

2B Howie Kendrick (R)

C Mike Napoli (R)

3B Maicer Izturis (S)

SP Scott Kazmir (L)

SP Jared Weaver (R)

SP Joe Saunders (L)

SP Ervin Santana (R)

SP Trevor Bell (R)

CL Brian Fuentes (L)

SU Kevin Jepsen (R)

SU Fernando Rodney (R)

MR Scot Shields (R)

MR Jason Bulger (R)

LOOGY Brian Shouse (L) FA

SWING Matt Palmer (R)

C Jeff Mathis (R)

IF Brandon Wood (R)

IF Freddy Sandoval (S)

OF Gary Matthews Jr. (S)

Trading Goats

I was just reading about the Carlos Gomez for J. J. Hardy trade. It is an interesting deal, reminiscent of the Delmon Young for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett trade Minnesota was involved in a couple years back, as it is essentially an exchange of underperforming young players who are still very capable of blossoming into solid contributers (although Gomez and Hardy probably don't have quite the "superstar" ceiling of Young and Garza). Much like that trade, it will be hard to evaluate for at least a couple of years. It could turn out that one player blooms and the other doesn't, that both do, or both do not.

Also, the trade fills similar needs for both sides. The Twins can now rest easy that Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Young will all be able to play everyday. Hardy, no matter how he hits, is an A+ defender, combined with Nick Punto, the Twins may have one of the best double-play combos in the league. Similarly, for the Brewers, Hardy's departure means they can hand Alcides Escobar a starting role. Gomez's centerfield defense is clearly what Milwaukee is after, any improvements he makes at the plate will just be a bonus in a lineup which is already loaded with offensive talent. Also, for both teams, this precludes the signing of good, but potentially risky and/or overpriced veterans (Orlando Cabrera and Mike Cameron).

Although I would classify this a win-win scenario, I like the trade slightly better from Milwaukee's angle, only because Gomez will be under their control for longer and isn't eligible for arbitration yet. Hardy will make upwards of $5 Million in each of the next two years and qualify for free agency at the end of 2011, whereas Gomez has another year at the minimum and won't hit the market until 2013. Money is everything for small-market teams, both of which are anticipating contract negotiations with their franchise players (Joe Mauer and Prince Fielder).

However, the Twins may like the impact Hardy can make immediately. Despite a down year in '09, he has already proven he can be an offensive force, having had two excellent seasons, including an All-Star appearance, in '07 and '08. We can't underestimate the fact that this may be a "prequel" move for the Twins. By symbolically casting aside a postseason "goat," they offer a testament to their intention to be active this offseason and again field a competitive team in 2010. Such a move might be valuable for two reasons: a.) they are trying to sell season tickets in their new stadium and b.) they are trying to sign Joe Mauer to a long-term contract. Both the fans and the fan-favorite catcher will be enthusiastic about the fact that the franchise is "hitting the ground running," "has a plan," "is committed to winning," etc., etc.

Offseason Prospectus #1: New York Yankees

Congrats, Yankee fans! Your team now considers its ticket-gouging practices not only justified, but inspired! Expect another price hike for 2010!

Congrats, Yankee fans! Enjoy a winter of typical smugness and self-satisfaction as you root for your other favorite franchises: Dow Jones, Exxon Mobil, Citibank, the LAPD, and the national debt clock (yay, it's up again!!!).

Little known fact, when Yankees fans watch poker, they root for the house: "Look at the rake on that hand! Damn, Harrah's stock is on the rise! Go dealer!"

To everybody else, take solace in the fact that if the Yankees don't win a couple times every decade, our spite would be unjustified. The New York Yankees are an institution, like corporate greed, political graft, abuse of power, and hate crime, which defines our sense of "evil" in the world. Without them, we might be in danger of becoming confused, apathetic, and superficial creatures, absent the ethical or moral center which guides not only our beliefs and actions, but allows us to experience the full range of human emotions, from pride and joy to fear and grief. Our entire existence would be a desperate affectation of behaviors associated with actual feeling only via observation. Our only true connection to "the real" would be the overwhelming anxiety brought about by considering the potential revelation of our monstrous inhumanity. Imagine the horror...

And thus, unfortunately, I begin my discussion of baseball's "hot stove" season...

Free Agents:

Johnny Damon (36) LF/DH

Chad Gaudin (27) RHSP

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33) IF/OF

Eric Hinske (32) PH

Hideki Matsui (35) DH/OF

Jose Molina (34) C

Xavier Nady (31) RF

Andy Pettitte (37) LHSP

Arbitration Eligible:

Brian Bruney (28) RHRP

Melky Cabrera (25) CF

Joba Chamberlain (24) RHSP

Phil Hughes (23) RHRP

Chien-Ming Wang (30) RHSP

ETA 2010?:

Francisco Cervelli (24) C

Kei Igawa (30) LHSP

Austin Jackson (23) CF

The Yankees will, of course, be considered among the favorites to win another championship going into 2010. They will also, once again, be a very active participant in the free agent market. Seven guys from their World Series roster are eligible for free agency and three of them - Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Andy Pettitte - were World Series heroes, perhaps elevating their bargaining position this offseason.

Outside their popularity with the fans and in the clubhouse, resigning Damon and Matsui doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Both have edged into their upper 30s, are basically worthless on defense, and a touch injury-prone. The Yankees have several players - Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, and even Derek Jeter - who could probably stand to get a few extra games at DH to help keep them fresh throughout the season. That option will not exist if Matsui stays, as his knees made it impossible for him to play the outfield at all this season. The Yankees will likely pursue the top tier of free-agent outfielders, specifically Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Their success in procuring either of them might spell the end for Damon and/or Matsui.

New York also has a corps of major-league ready outfielders within the system, although none who profile as power-hitting corner outfielders like Matsui or Xavier Nady. Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Austin Jackson are all probably capable of holding down a starting center-fielder job this coming season, but, obviously, they can't all do it in New York. I expect at least one from this trio will be part of a package for a starting pitcher, a corner outfielder, or for role players in the vein of the departing benchwarmers, Hinske and Hairston.

The other major offseason questions in New York will revolve around the back-end of the rotation. Andy Pettitte clearly pitched well enough to be given another year at $5,000,000 to act as the third or fourth starter, but the tears in his eyes and the tip of cap as he walked off the field last night suggested, to me at least, a man consumed with the idea that this was the conclusion of his encore performance. You can't end on a much higher note than winning the deciding game of a World Series. He is, currently, at best, a borderline Hall of Famer, but hanging on too long could do more harm than good to his legacy.

Girardi will again endure a variety of second-guessing regarding the so-called "Joba rules." I expect Chamberlain will be much better next year, in his second full season as a starting pitcher, but New York fans would clearly prefer than he be under as little pressure as possible, so finding a #3 to slot in front of him will probably be among Brian Cashman's priorities. The Yankees deep pockets make them real candidates to overpay for a high-risk/high-reward guys like Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Joel Pineiro.

Of relatively minor interest to the casual fan will be negotiations with Jose Molina. Francisco Cervelli looked pretty good in his limited audition in '09 and would seem a competent back up. However, because of Posada's age, the Yankees use their backup more than most teams, both as a late-inning defensive replacement, the personal catcher for A.J. Burnett, and for stretches when Posada is only capable of DH-ing. Girardi clearly highly valued Molina in that role this season (perhaps seeing a little of himself) and he remains one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.

A final note: the fact that Girardi turned to Chad Gaudin for only one inning during the entire postseason suggests that he has very little faith. However, Gaudin, despite his throughly average overall numbers (6-10, 4.64 ERA), had some flashes of brilliance this year as a starter (8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 9K v. Texas in June, for instance). He has already spent six seasons in the big leagues (mainly as a reliever), but will be just 27-years-old (that magic 27) on Opening Day 2010. The team who takes an inexpensive roll of the dice on him as their fourth or fifth starter could be looking at one of the year's best bargains.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/24):

SS Derek Jeter (R)

LF Johnny Damon (L) FA

1B Mark Texeira (S)

3B Alex Rodriguez (R)

CF Curtis Granderson (L)

2B Robinson Cano (L)

RF Nick Swisher (S)

C Jorge Posada (S)

DH Nick Johnson (L)

SP C. C. Sabathia (L)

SP Javier Vazquez (R)

SP A. J. Burnett (R)

SP Andy Pettitte (L)

SP Joba Chamberlain (R)

CL Mariano Rivera (R)

SU Phil Hughes (R)

SU Damaso Marte (L)

MR David Robertson (R)

MR Alfredo Aceves (R)

LOOGY Boone Logan (L)

SWING Chad Gaudin (R)

C Francisco Cervelli (R)
1B Juan Miranda (L)

IF Ramiro Pena (S)

OF Brett Gardner (L)

How much rest does a 37-year-old need?

This World Series has become, among other things, Exhibit A in the argument about pitcher's rest. There are several vocal proponents (most notably, Nolan Ryan) of the four-man rotation, a conception founded on the assumption pitchers only need three days between starts. While that is certainly the case for some pitchers (C. C. Sabathia for one, probably Ryan himself), A. J. Burnett reminded us last night that it isn't universal.

This November Charlie Manuel and Joe Girardi have elected to take opposite paths with their rotations. Manuel went with a conventional four-man rotation, meaning that his obvious Ace, Cliff Lee, will get the ball only twice (both of the game the Phillies have won) and the pivotal Game 7, if it comes to that, will fall into the hands of either Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, or J. A. Happ, none of whom inspired a great deal of confidence in October. Girardi, on the other hand, asks his three horses - Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettitte - to each go on short rest for their final start of the long season, with Sabathia slated to do it twice in a row, assuming we see a Game 7.

The Yankees are certainly still in the driver's seat with a three games to two advantage, but there was a significant momentum swing in yesterday's game when Burnett couldn't get through three innings in his second start, while a fully-rested Lee worked his way into the eighth. Now Yankee fans are faced with the recognition that Andy Pettitte didn't exactly dominate on full rest in Game 3, allowing two homers and four earned runs in six innings. And this time out, instead of getting a slumping, spiteful Cole Hamels, they get a fully rested Pedro Martinez, who pitched well enough at Yankee Stadium in Game 2 to quiet the "Who's your daddy?" douchebags (at least as much as any douchebag can be quieted). Somewhat surprisingly, the two 37-year-old potential Hall of Famers, who spent much of their careers pitching for American League rivals, have never matched up against each other in a postseason start. They've matched up six times during the regular season, with each picking up a win on three occasions. This will be a hell of a tiebreaker.

Andy Pettitte, of course, has an excellent reputation as a playoff pitcher, but his legend is as much about quantity as quality (17-9, 3.88 ERA, 161 K, 243 IP). Pettitte has started four playoff games on three days rest. Two went very well (8+ IP, 0 ER), one went very badly (3 IP, 5 ER), and one was modest, but inconclusive (6 IP, 4 ER). In the regularly season, on three days rest, he is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA, significantly worse than his career averages. Perhaps most important, however, is that fact that he hasn't started a single game on three days rest since 2006 (with the Astros) and hasn't started a playoff game on three days rest since 2003. I think we would all concur that he's put a lot of mileage on his arm since then.

The same is true of Pedro, who, like Pettitte, is 37-years-old. But he has the benefit of his regular rest going into Game 6 and also hasn't put as much stress on his body over the course of 2009, since he didn't make his first start until August. His postseason record is about quality, not quantity (6-3, 3.22 ERA, 91 K, 92 IP). He has never gone less than six innings in a postseason start. Sure, he may still have some demons from Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, but he has never been the losing pitcher in the deciding game of a postseason series and the meltdown in the eighth inning of that game (which prompted the firing the Grady Little) overshadows the fact that Pedro owned the Yankees for the first seven innings.

Manuel's rotation would appear to have the advantage in Game 6, but one certainly has to give Sabathia the advantage in Game 7, right?

Yes, I do think that's right, but I am concerned about the build-up of innings C. C. is facing. Girardi did a great job of keeping The Big Sleep fresh in August and September, since the Yankees ran away with their division, but with a long postseason (in which he's pitched exceptionally well) he's now up to 267 innings on the season, a massive total no matter how durable the pitcher. When Sabathia melted down in the 2008 NLDS, it was after 253 innings (and four straight starts on three days rest). In the 2007 ALCS, his meltdown came after 248 innings. Anybody who has watched him over the years knows that when he doesn't have it, he profoundly doesn't have it (see 13.50 ERA in his first four starts of 2008 or 10.45 ERA in 2007 ALCS). I hate to root for an implosion from one of my very favorite pitchers, but if it gets to a Game 7 that's exactly what I'll be doing.