A quick run-through of the difficult decision facing each playoff-bound team over the next 48 hours:
Boston Red Sox
Terry Francona has already announced his intention to start Clay Buchholz in Game Three and, since he has also elected to leave the ultimate swingman, Tim Wakefield, off his ALDS roster, presumably Daisuke Matsuzaka will follow in the eventuality of a Game Four. Francona has before him then three major decisions. Foremost, he faces a real quandry at shortstop. Alex Gonzalez and Nick Green, who have played the most innings at the position for the Red Sox this season are both battling injuries. Although it was only his 19th start of the season, also due to a string of injuries, Jed Lowrie made a strong case for his inclusion by hitting a grand slam on Sunday afternoon. The switch-hitting Lowrie has the highest upside of the trio offensively and defensively, but there are still limitations in his swing from the right side. I expect Francona will choose to carry him and Gonzalez, a sad turn of event for the 31-year-old journeyman, Green, who was a nice underdog story this season, but undoubtedly the best-case scenario for Red Sox fans. If Lowrie is fully healthy, he could add even more depth to the potent lineup.
Francona will also have to decide what he wants out of his fifth outfielder. Obviously, since the brittle Rocco Baldelli is his #4, he will be looking for defense and the ability to play centerfield, something he can get from any of the three candidates - Brian Anderson, Joey Gathright, and Josh Reddick - although Anderson probably offers the best (and most experienced) glove. Anderson is also the only of the three with previous playoff experience, having gotten five at-bats with the White Sox last year. Unfortunately, he struck out four times. Reddick has by far the most upside and the most power. At only 21, last year he hit 23 HR in the minors and followed with 13 in less than 300 AB this year, before being promoted to a bench role on the big club (where he hit 2 HR in 59 AB). But as the BoSox are already carrying more experienced hitters in the form of Baldelli, Casey Kotchman, Lowrie, etc., I expect Francona might settle on Gathright, whose speed (21 SB in 25 AT in '08) makes him a solid candidate to fulfill the "Dave Roberts role" as designated pinch-runner.
Finally, their is still one bullpen spot up for grabs. Francona has to decide whether to stick with Manny Delcarmen, a great arm and a stalwart in the bullpen for the four years, or turn to a converted starter, somebody like Paul Byrd or Michael Bowden, as a long reliever who could throw multiple innings in a mop-up situation. The reason it has even come to this is that Delcarmen has a 7.27 ERA since the All-Star Break (after registering a 2.41 ERA in the first half) and allowed 11 ER in 7 IP in September. Delcarmen has also been roughed up in his postseason career (11 ER in 8 2/3 IP), so there isn't much reason to believe he's going to suddenly turn it around in October. However, neither Byrd nor Bowden was particularly good in their late-season bullpen auditions either.
Colorado Rockies
The most pressing issue for Jim Tracy is the health of Jorge De La Rosa, who left his last start with a groin injury and is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Tuesday. De La Rosa went 16-3 with a 3.94 ERA in the last four months of the season, arguably the Rockies second-best starter. If he won't be ready in time for Game Three, the Rockies will have to use both Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel in their Division Series rotation. Marquis was a 15-game winner, but in his typical fashion, he suffered down the stretch, going 3-7 with a 4.89 ERA in his last 14 starts. Jason Hammel, on the other hand, did his best pitching after the All-Star Break, going 5-2 with a 3.87 ERA in his last dozen efforts. If De La Rosa proves himself healthy, Marquis could do something rather spectacular. This could be the third franchise for which he made 30+ starts and won 12+ games, but was left off the postseason roster.
In all probability, however, Marquis will at least get sent to the bullpen as a long reliever. Let's face it, the Rockies don't have many better choices, which brings us to what might be Tracy's most grueling decision. The Rockies outfield is loaded. Due to a variety of injuries, six players have gotten 300 plate appearances as Colorado outfielders. All of them have played pretty well, but while five of them have an OPS above 878, Ryan Spilborghs, a popular veteran and fan favorite, is sitting at 705, clearly the odd man out. In order to keep Spilborghs, the Rockies would have to decide whether they are willing to go with only seven relievers (leaving behind Matt Herges and Matt Belisle probably) or risk being caught without a natural backup middle-infielder in the form of Omar Quintanilla (480 OPS) or Eric Young Jr. (611 OPS). Remember, prior to the season Ian Stewart was working out at second base (he got 20 starts there this year and made "only" three errors), so maybe Tracy will take the gamble. After all, if something were to happen to Tulowitzki, the Rockies season is pretty much over anyway.
As for that final reliever...or two. Herges was very good (2.89 ERA in 9 1/3 IP) after coming over from Cleveland, as was Jose Contreras (1.59 ERA in 17 IP) after being let go by the White Sox. Belisle's overall numbers aren't good (5.52 ERA), but he was much better in his second stint with the club, posting a 1.42 ERA in September. Contreras seems like a safe bet to me, as he has a solid postseason history and the ability to pitch multiple innings. There is not easy way to separate Herges and Belisle, but the veteran, Herges, who has pitched 11 career playoff innings without allowing a run will probably get the call.
Detroit Tigers
If the Tigers do manage to get past the Twins tomorrow, they may benefit from the fact that they have been playing games which feel like the whole season rides on every pitch for over a week now. Leyland's roster sets up fairly easily, with a relatively deep bench and a strong rotation, especially with a first-round schedule that will only require three starters (Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello). Where the Tigers are lacking is in the bullpen. Leyland will probably attempt to convert either Nate Robertson or Jarrod Washburn into a left-handed longman, with Robertson having the clear advantage, having pitched much better down the stretch and apparently not suffering from any lingering injuries. Jeremy Bonderman hasn't been great in his return as a reliever (5.68 ERA), but the fact that the other choice is Eddie Bonine probably works to his advantage.
Los Angeles Angels
Mike Scioscia, typically compulsive, publicly set his roster before any of his fellow managers. There were a couple of surprises. Scioscia chose to keep a third catcher, Bobby Wilson, instead of Brandon Wood (who he clearly has never trusted) or an extra reliever like Jose Arrendondo. Although the Angels will only be carrying six relievers, two of them are converted starters, Ervin Santana and Matt Palmer, who could presumably eat a lot of innings in a blowout situation. Less surprisingly, Scioscia also elected to keep a fifth outfielder, Reggie Willits, who will fill the "Dave Roberts role" as pinch-runner and defensive replacement.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Although the Dodgers have clearly taken a step backward in the second half and don't matchup well in a short series against the Cardinals, I'm not ready to rule out any team coached by Joe Torre. The old codger has a stacked, circular lineup and a very deep bench (Thome, Pierre, Belliard, Loretta, etc.), as well as a loaded bullpen. All these things are typical of his past postseason success. His rotation, however, has some serious holes. He has already announced Randy Wolf as the Game One starter and Clayton Kershaw in Game Two. I would guess that Chad Billingsley, despite how bad he has been in the second half (3-7, 5.20 ERA), will start either Game Three or Four. Torre won't completely bypass a guy with the potential to dominate as Billingsley can. So the real question is, Jon Garland or Vincente Padilla? Not a question many Dodgers fans are eager to answer. Both were castoffs from other teams and both are likely replaced by Hiroki Kuroda if the Dodgers advance to the NLCS, but both pitched surprisingly well for their new team. Garland went 3-2 in six starts, with a 2.72 ERA, while Padilla went 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven starts, striking out 36 in 37 IP. Garland's advantage is that he was brilliant in his previous postseason effort with the champion White Sox in 2005, but Padilla has more overpowering stuff and the potential to dominate any time out, as evidenced by his 10 K in 5 IP his last time out.
After Torre makes that decision, he will have to decide whether to keep eleven or twelve relievers. As mentioned, Torre's bullpen corps are very deep. But somebody from the group of Padilla/Garland, James McDonald (2.72 ERA in 50 IP), and Guillermo Mota (3.44 in 65 IP) will have to be left out, unless Torre chooses to drop his backup shortstop, Juan Castro. Castro offer very little except defensive insurance, but if Rafael Furcal's back injury were to suddenly flare up, the infield would have to be captained by Ron Belliard or Casey Blake, neither of whom is particularly "rangy."
Minnesota Twins
The job that Ron Gardenhire has done bringing the Twins to within a win of the playoffs is especially impressive when you consider the lack of production he gets from the lower third of his lineup and his bench. Brendan Harris, with 6 HR and a .363 SLG, is what passes for thunder off the bench. Jose Morales, who has a higher OBP (.386) than SLG (.363), is the primary DH since Justin Morneau went down. All told, the Twins bottom third and their four-man bench have combined for 14 HR. In other words, as many as thudersticks like Yunel Escobar, Jason Bartlett, and Jason Varitek all by themselves. With Morneau and Joe Crede out of action, Gardenhire has no choice but to carry Brian Buscher and Alexi Cassilla.
Gardenhire's bullpen has also set itself, although in this case it isn't a bad thing. The Twins has six relievers with ERAs under 3.00 in September...and Joe Nathan wasn't one of them.
New York Yankees
The opportunity to choose the long road (extra off days) means Girardi won't have to decide who his fourth starter is (Joba Chamberlain or Chad Gaudin) until the ALCS...if they make it. Both Joba and Gaudin are headed to the bullpen, which shouldn't be too big a problem since they both have considerable experience as relievers. The Yankees bullpen is DEEP, getting deeper. So is their bench. Good luck Twins/Tigers.
Philadelphia Phillies
Much publicized has been the dearth of solid starting pitcher options available to Charlie Manuel this October. He has already announced that lefties Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will start the first two games of the NLDS, but it remains to be seen who among the group of J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and Pedro Martinez will be dropped from the rotation. Happ would be the obvious choice. He is the youngest and has the most bullpen experience, having begun the season there, potentially filling a much-needed gap left by the injury to J.C. Romero. However, don't be surprised if Happ makes the rotation in the first round, perhaps even as the #3 starter. The Phillies are a tough matchup for the Rockies largely because of their bevy of tough left-handed pitchers. The Rockies were 65-44 against right-handers this season, 27-26 against southpaws. Colorado has six regulars left-handed regulars. By utilizing Happ (as well as Lee and Hamels), Manuel can perhaps force guys like Ian Stewart (664 OPS v. LHP) and even Brad Hawpe (775 OPS v. LHP) to the bench, while minimizing the damage done by Todd Helton (741 OPS v. LHP).
If Happ does remain in the rotation, then Manuel's big bullpen decision will be who to carry as his second left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo or Sergio Escalona? Both are rookies, and neither are particularly promising options. If he puts Happ in the bullpen, Manuel can turn to a more established reliever like Tyler Walker or Kyle Kendrick.
St. Louis Cardinals
Tony LaRussa announced today that the Cardinals would retain Troy Glaus and Joe Thurston as bench players in the first round. Glaus obviously provides excellent right-handed power off the bench and Thurston is probably just a defensive insurance policy and a pinch-runner (most likely for Glaus). If the Cardinals advance to the World Series, Glaus and Rick Ankiel will make a strong DH platoon.
So, the Cards main decision is how to comprise the backend of their bullpen. Presumably, both Kyle Lohse and John Smoltz will be on the roster, even though only one of them will make the rotation. LaRussa will definitely keep Blake Hawksworth and Ryan McClellan from the right side, as well as Trevor Miller and Dennys Reyes from the left. That leave him with two spots open for the group of Mitchell Boggs, Jason Motte, Brad Thompson, and Todd Wellemeyer, all righties. After losing their spots in the rotation, Wellemeyer (3.24 ERA in 8 IP) and Thompson (3.89 ERA in 37 IP) pitched fairly well out of the bullpen. Motte and Boggs are both rookies and struggled as such over the course of the season. However, Motte made nine appearances in September without allowing a run, striking out 12 in 8 1/3 innings. His fastball is hard to ignore. Boggs also came into his own in September, with a 3.38 ERA in 13 innings. Meanwhile, LaRussa used Wellemeyer and Thompson less, only seven innings apiece. One wonders whether LaRussa was resting his veterans, or testing his younsters, or both. My personal impression is that Motte and Boggs, despite their inexperience, have excellent stuff (10+ K/9 for both), while Wellemeyer and Thompson have been around long enough that I know better than to trust them in critical situations.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Who beats the Yankees?
What looked a month ago like a stale pennant race turned into something more like a best-case scenario, as one playoff position is still undecided going into the final day of the season, leaving the possibility of a one-game playoff in the Metrodome on Tuesday (which looks likely with both the Tigers and Twins jumping into early leads this afternoon). While the one-game playoff is hardly a fair and accurate way of determining the best team - the point being, of course, that the fair and accurate way, the 162-game season, yielded a draw - it is, short of the seventh game of a playoff series, the most exciting thing baseball has to offer. The Padres and Rockies showdown in 2007 featured what was perhaps that postseason's most memorable moment: Matt Holliday diving headlong into homeplate, risking life, limb, and hundreds of millions of free agent dollars, to seal a come-from-behind victory for a come-from-behind team, against the sport's greatest closer (or, at least, the one with the most saves).
Perhaps we can't hope for such drama every time, but the four-game series between the Twins and Tigers earlier this week offered a stellar preview and, again, displayed how evenly matched these two rivals are. After a series split that included a beanball war tensions will undoubtedly be running even higher.
The only unfortunate outcome in all of this is that while the Twins are clearly playing great baseball this September, better than the Tigers, they do not match up nearly so well with the Evil Empire. Due to their amazing comeback, Jim Leyland was forced to trot Justin Verlander out to the mound this afternoon, thus robbing us of a potential marquee matchup between Verlander and C. C. Sabathia in Game 1 of the Division Series. Verlander out-dueling The Big Sleep seemed the most realistic way for the Tigers to upset the balance of power and perhaps give themselves an opportunity to advance.
Having very little other bias in the Twins/Tigers rivalry, I am rooting for the team that has the best chance of ousting the hated Yanks. Given the priority role that pitching and defense play in the postseason, that team is clearly the Tigers. Consider the likely postseason pitching matchups for both potential AL Central champs:
If there is a one-game playoff on Tuesday, the Twins will likely throw their Ace, Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36), on regular rest against the Tigers rookie stud, Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04), who will actually have extra rest (he last pitched on Tuesday afternoon).
If the Twins win and advance, they will have to face the Yankees on Wednesday (assuming the Yankees elect the series which would give their pitchers extra rest, a probability regardless of who they are playing). None of the Twins presumed top three (Baker, Blackburn, and Pavano) will be fully rested by Wednesday, so they will likely turn to the rookie left-hander, Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.69), who has been pretty good in his late-season audition, but was noticeably uncomfortable in a big start against Detroit earlier this week (5 ER in 4 2/3 IP) and is probably not quite ready for a postseason spotlight...in the Bronx.
The Tigers, on the other hand, could hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (13-9, 3.62), who has had some late-season struggles, but has recent postseason experience (2.08 ERA as a reliever with the Rays in '08) and managed a 1.39 ERA in two starts against the Bronx Bombers this season, including seven excellent innings at Yankee Stadium. One has to give Sabathia the advantage in either matchup, especially considering his 3.17 ERA at home, but Jackson is clearly a MUCH, MUCH better option. And remember, since its invention, the Game 1 winner of the NLDS is 40-16 in the series, advancing to the League Championship Series 71.4% of the time.
In the second game, on Friday, the Tigers would be able to turn to Verlander (18-9, 3.45), who posted a 1.29 ERA against them in two starts this season, whereas the Twins would probably elect Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03) over Carl Pavano (13-12, 5.07), in only because Pavano twisted history in the Bronx might be cause for additional jitters. Blackburn pitched O.K. (4 ER in 7 2/3 IP) in one start in New York earlier this season, but has a career 5.89 ERA vs. the Yanks. Whether Girardi goes with A. J. Burnett (12-9, 4.10) or Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), the pitching matchup would strongly favor the Tigers, but not the Twins.
On Sunday, when the AL Central Champions return home, either team would be able to roll out their starter from the one-game playoff, either Porcello or Baker, to face either Pettitte or Burnett, for both teams this is probably more or less a draw, which is probably more advantageous to the Twins than the Tigers, because they have a greater home-field advantage in the Metrodome and feature a slightly more potent lineup.
On Monday (if necessary), however, as Sabathia makes his second turn, while the Tigers could go with Jackson agains, who was 7-3 at home this season, the Twins would probably turn to Pavano. Pavano has yet to win a game at the Metrodome this season, in four starts, but he hasn't pitched awfully (4.15 ERA) and, clearly, he has something to prove against his former squad (2.70 ERA in two starts, neither resulting in a decision). Much more importantly, however, Sabathia is one of the few pitchers in baseball who is not looking forward to the Dome's demolition. He is 9-5 there on his career, with a 3.48 ERA, and in recent years has been even more dominant. Since 2005 he is 6-2, 2.37 ERA. Since 2006 he is 4-1, 1.66 ERA. You get the picture. Whereas in Detroit, Sabathia has gone 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in the last four seasons.
If there were a deciding game, back in the Bronx, on Wednesday, the Tigers would clearly go back to Verlander, while the Twins would turn their season over to Blackburn. While Verlander, a perennial Cy Young contender, is clearly the preferable matchup, Blackburn is not a worst-case scenario. His numbers were inflated by very poor stretch in August when he lost five straight decisions and posted a 8.22 ERA over eight starts. Prior to that, Blackburn had been outstanding (8-4, 3.06) and since then he has had only one bad outing (3-2, 3.07) and his team has won five of his last seven starts. Most recently he dominated the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals (1.29 ERA in 21 IP) in games which were all "must wins" for his team.
As far as Girardi's choice between Burnett and Pettitte...it should be easy. The expected lineups of both the Twins and Tigers hit somewhat better against lefties than rightes. Moreover, Burnett pitched pretty well against both the Tigers and the Twins this season (13 IP/4 ER in two starts vs. Twins, 6 IP/3 ER in one start against the Tigers), while Pettitte never faced the Tigers and got hit pretty hard (.387 BAA and 4 ER in 6 2/3 IP) in his only start against the Twins. However, Giradi may take into consideration Pettitte's long postseason resume (whereas Burnett has never pitched in October before) and has logged more inning, therefore perhaps benefiting from some extra rest heading into multiple starts in the potential ALCS and World Series.
Perhaps we can't hope for such drama every time, but the four-game series between the Twins and Tigers earlier this week offered a stellar preview and, again, displayed how evenly matched these two rivals are. After a series split that included a beanball war tensions will undoubtedly be running even higher.
The only unfortunate outcome in all of this is that while the Twins are clearly playing great baseball this September, better than the Tigers, they do not match up nearly so well with the Evil Empire. Due to their amazing comeback, Jim Leyland was forced to trot Justin Verlander out to the mound this afternoon, thus robbing us of a potential marquee matchup between Verlander and C. C. Sabathia in Game 1 of the Division Series. Verlander out-dueling The Big Sleep seemed the most realistic way for the Tigers to upset the balance of power and perhaps give themselves an opportunity to advance.
Having very little other bias in the Twins/Tigers rivalry, I am rooting for the team that has the best chance of ousting the hated Yanks. Given the priority role that pitching and defense play in the postseason, that team is clearly the Tigers. Consider the likely postseason pitching matchups for both potential AL Central champs:
If there is a one-game playoff on Tuesday, the Twins will likely throw their Ace, Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36), on regular rest against the Tigers rookie stud, Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04), who will actually have extra rest (he last pitched on Tuesday afternoon).
If the Twins win and advance, they will have to face the Yankees on Wednesday (assuming the Yankees elect the series which would give their pitchers extra rest, a probability regardless of who they are playing). None of the Twins presumed top three (Baker, Blackburn, and Pavano) will be fully rested by Wednesday, so they will likely turn to the rookie left-hander, Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.69), who has been pretty good in his late-season audition, but was noticeably uncomfortable in a big start against Detroit earlier this week (5 ER in 4 2/3 IP) and is probably not quite ready for a postseason spotlight...in the Bronx.
The Tigers, on the other hand, could hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (13-9, 3.62), who has had some late-season struggles, but has recent postseason experience (2.08 ERA as a reliever with the Rays in '08) and managed a 1.39 ERA in two starts against the Bronx Bombers this season, including seven excellent innings at Yankee Stadium. One has to give Sabathia the advantage in either matchup, especially considering his 3.17 ERA at home, but Jackson is clearly a MUCH, MUCH better option. And remember, since its invention, the Game 1 winner of the NLDS is 40-16 in the series, advancing to the League Championship Series 71.4% of the time.
In the second game, on Friday, the Tigers would be able to turn to Verlander (18-9, 3.45), who posted a 1.29 ERA against them in two starts this season, whereas the Twins would probably elect Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03) over Carl Pavano (13-12, 5.07), in only because Pavano twisted history in the Bronx might be cause for additional jitters. Blackburn pitched O.K. (4 ER in 7 2/3 IP) in one start in New York earlier this season, but has a career 5.89 ERA vs. the Yanks. Whether Girardi goes with A. J. Burnett (12-9, 4.10) or Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), the pitching matchup would strongly favor the Tigers, but not the Twins.
On Sunday, when the AL Central Champions return home, either team would be able to roll out their starter from the one-game playoff, either Porcello or Baker, to face either Pettitte or Burnett, for both teams this is probably more or less a draw, which is probably more advantageous to the Twins than the Tigers, because they have a greater home-field advantage in the Metrodome and feature a slightly more potent lineup.
On Monday (if necessary), however, as Sabathia makes his second turn, while the Tigers could go with Jackson agains, who was 7-3 at home this season, the Twins would probably turn to Pavano. Pavano has yet to win a game at the Metrodome this season, in four starts, but he hasn't pitched awfully (4.15 ERA) and, clearly, he has something to prove against his former squad (2.70 ERA in two starts, neither resulting in a decision). Much more importantly, however, Sabathia is one of the few pitchers in baseball who is not looking forward to the Dome's demolition. He is 9-5 there on his career, with a 3.48 ERA, and in recent years has been even more dominant. Since 2005 he is 6-2, 2.37 ERA. Since 2006 he is 4-1, 1.66 ERA. You get the picture. Whereas in Detroit, Sabathia has gone 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in the last four seasons.
If there were a deciding game, back in the Bronx, on Wednesday, the Tigers would clearly go back to Verlander, while the Twins would turn their season over to Blackburn. While Verlander, a perennial Cy Young contender, is clearly the preferable matchup, Blackburn is not a worst-case scenario. His numbers were inflated by very poor stretch in August when he lost five straight decisions and posted a 8.22 ERA over eight starts. Prior to that, Blackburn had been outstanding (8-4, 3.06) and since then he has had only one bad outing (3-2, 3.07) and his team has won five of his last seven starts. Most recently he dominated the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals (1.29 ERA in 21 IP) in games which were all "must wins" for his team.
As far as Girardi's choice between Burnett and Pettitte...it should be easy. The expected lineups of both the Twins and Tigers hit somewhat better against lefties than rightes. Moreover, Burnett pitched pretty well against both the Tigers and the Twins this season (13 IP/4 ER in two starts vs. Twins, 6 IP/3 ER in one start against the Tigers), while Pettitte never faced the Tigers and got hit pretty hard (.387 BAA and 4 ER in 6 2/3 IP) in his only start against the Twins. However, Giradi may take into consideration Pettitte's long postseason resume (whereas Burnett has never pitched in October before) and has logged more inning, therefore perhaps benefiting from some extra rest heading into multiple starts in the potential ALCS and World Series.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Wake Me Up When September Ends...(Part 1)
For those who love pennant races, this has not been your year. About a week ago the San Francisco Giants had men on second and third and nobody out in the bottom of the ninth against the Wild Card-leading Rockies. Had they driven those men in (all they needed was a couple of well placed grounders or deep fly balls) it would've capped off a series sweep and put them within a game and a half...but they didn't, and so the Rockies lead jumped to three and half, and has remained that or better ever since. Minnesota has taken advantage of a Detroit slump such that the four-game series between the two teams starting Monday still has significant consequence. However, barring a sweep by the Twins, it remains almost certain that the eight teams who entered the month leading their divisions and the Wild Card races will end up being the eight teams playing in October. As I said before, that's unfortunate for those who love pennant races.
However, for those of us that love playoff baseball above all else, this is actually great news. There isn't going to be anybody backing into the postseason. No 82, 83, or 84 game winners this year. Even Detroit has already hit the magic 81 and will likely need at least four or five more in the coming week and a half. Every other playoff contender seems destined to win at least 90, if they haven't already. There haven't been 7 or more 90 win teams in the playoffs since 2004.
Every one of the teams we're going to be watching in October has been realistically considering their postseason rosters since at least the end of July. That's why the Dodgers went out and got Jim Thome. It's why the Rockies acquired Jason Giambi. It's why the Tigers got Aubrey Huff. It's why the Phillies wanted to land Ben Francisco as well as Cliff Lee in their deal with Cleveland. This is the first year in a long while that no National League team is going to be caught with their pants down if they reach the World Series and have to play four games with a DH. The Phillies have Francisco and Greg Dobbs. The Cardinals have Rick Ankiel and possibly Troy Glaus. The Dodgers have Thome and the Rockies have the Giambino, who, by the way, have combined for 261 HR from the DH position, 32 HR against the Yankees, and 70 HR against the Red Sox.
I expect this to be a highly competitive postseason as every team comes with considerable strengths. Detroit may be slumping in September, but they've got superior defense up the middle with Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Placido Polanco, and Curtis Granderson, and a serious two-headed monster at the top of the rotation with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. And has anybody noticed that since the All-Star Break, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez are all in the top 12 in the AL in OPS?
Here's my breakdown of how the elite eight stack up in four categories critical to postseason success: top-o-the rotation starters, up-the-middle defense, middle-o-the order bats, and back-o-the bullpen relievers
Top o' The Rotation Starters:
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter (16-4, 2.34), Adam Wainwright (18-8, 2.59), Joel Pineiro (15-11, 3.24)
2. Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.44), Edwin Jackson (13-7, 3.25), Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Cliff Lee (14-11, 2.99), Cole Hamels (10-9, 4.11), Joe Blanton (11-7, 3.82) or J. A. Happ (10-4, 2.77) or Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32)
4. Boston Red Sox: Jon Lester (14-7, 3.33), Josh Beckett (16-6, 3.78), Clay Buchholz (6-3, 3.49) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-0, 2.38 since coming off the DL)
5. New York Yankees: C. C. Sabathia (18-7, 3.31), A. J. Burnett (12-9, 4.19), Andy Pettitte (13-7, 4.15)
6. Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez (14-11, 3.47), Jorge De La Rosa (15-9, 4.42), Jason Marquis (15-12, 3.98) or Aaron Cook (10-6, 4.47)
7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Randy Wolf (11-6, 3.24), Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.85), Chad Billingsley (12-10, 4.07) or Hiroki Kuroda (8-6, 3.65)
8. Los Angeles Angels: John Lackey (11-8, 3.56), Jered Weaver (15-7, 3.87), Joe Saunders (14-7, 4.63)
Up The Middle Defense:
1. Detroit Tigers: Gerald Laird (42.9% CS), Placido Polanco (9.4 UZR), Adam Everett (6.6 UZR), Curtis Granderson (0.6 UZR)
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Carlos Ruiz (28.4%), Chase Utley (8.9), Jimmy Rollins (4.2), Shane Victorino (-3.9)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: Russell Martin (31.0%), Orlando Hudson (-3.9), Rafael Furcal (7.2), Matt Kemp (5.3)
4. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Napoli (21.7%), Maicer Izturis (8.2) or Howie Kendrick (5.9), Erick Aybar (5.1), Torii Hunter (-5.2)
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Yadier Molina (40.4%), Skip Schumaker (-7.0), Brendan Ryan (13.5) or Julio Lugo (-36.5), Colby Rasmus (10.7)
6. Colorado Rockies: Yorbit Torrealba (14.6%), Clint Barmes (4.5), Troy Tulowitzki (0.7), Carlos Gonzalez (6.4) or Dexter Fowler (-14.1)
7. New York Yankees: Jorge Posada (29.4%), Robinson Cano (-5.8), Derek Jeter (5.9), Melky Cabrera (3.1)
8. Boston Red Sox: Jason Varitek (13.0%) or Victor Martinez (14.3%), Dustin Pedroia (10.9), Jed Lowrie (22.2) or Nick Green (4.8), Jacoby Ellsbury (-11.0)
Middle o' the Order Bats:
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols (1123 OPS), Matt Holliday (911), Ryan Ludwick (783)
2. New York Yankees: Mark Texeira (950), Alex Rodriguez (921), Hideki Matsui (896)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Chase Utley (941), Ryan Howard (917), Raul Ibanez (912)
4. Boston Red Sox: Victor Martinez (850), Kevin Youkilis (953), Jason Bay (936)
5. Los Angeles Angels: Bobby Abreu (817), Vladimir Guerrero (811), Torii Hunter (892), Kendry Morales (909)
6. Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton (889), Troy Tulowitzki (908), Brad Hawpe (892)
7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Manny Ramirez (973), Andre Ethier (890), Matt Kemp (860)
8. Detroit Tigers: Magglio Ordonez (765), Miguel Cabrera (958), Carlos Guillen (769) or Marcus Thames (770)
Back o' the Bullpen Arms:
1. New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera (42 SV, 1.88 ERA), Phil Hughes (3 SV, 17 HLD, 1.30 ERA), Alfredo Aceves (10-1, 1 SV, 6 HLD, 3.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonathan Broxton (7-1, 35 SV, 2.39 ERA, 13.69 K/9), George Sherrill (21 SV, 10 HLD, 1.81 ERA), Ronald Belisario (12 HLD, 1.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
3. Boston Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon (37 SV, 1.94 ERA), Hideki Okajima (6-0, 24 HLD, 3.30 ERA), Daniel Bard (12 HLD, 1 SV, 3.72 ERA, 11.93 K/9)
4. St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Franklin (37 SV, 1.98 ERA), Dennys Reyes (18 HLD, 3.29 ERA), Trever Miller (13 HLD, 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
5. Colorado Rockies: Huston Street (33 SV, 2.93 ERA), Rafael Betancourt (2 SV, 18 HLD, 2.82 ERA), Franklin Morales (7 SV, 6 HLD, 2.97 ERA, 9.20 K/9)
6. Detroit Tigers: Fernando Rodney (34 SV, 3.76 ERA), Bobby Seay (6-3, 28 HLD, 3.70), Brandon Lyon (6-4, 3 SV, 14 HLD, 2.94 ERA, 70 IP)
7. Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Lidge (31 SV, 7.48 ERA), Ryan Madson (8 SV, 26 HLD, 3.33 ERA), Chan Ho Park (13 HLD, 2.52 ERA, 9.36 K/9)
8. Los Angeles Angels: Brian Fuentes (44 SV, 4.21 ERA), Kevin Jepsen (6-3, 16 HLD, 4.26 ERA), Darren Oliver (5-1, 16 HLD, 2.53 ERA)
However, for those of us that love playoff baseball above all else, this is actually great news. There isn't going to be anybody backing into the postseason. No 82, 83, or 84 game winners this year. Even Detroit has already hit the magic 81 and will likely need at least four or five more in the coming week and a half. Every other playoff contender seems destined to win at least 90, if they haven't already. There haven't been 7 or more 90 win teams in the playoffs since 2004.
Every one of the teams we're going to be watching in October has been realistically considering their postseason rosters since at least the end of July. That's why the Dodgers went out and got Jim Thome. It's why the Rockies acquired Jason Giambi. It's why the Tigers got Aubrey Huff. It's why the Phillies wanted to land Ben Francisco as well as Cliff Lee in their deal with Cleveland. This is the first year in a long while that no National League team is going to be caught with their pants down if they reach the World Series and have to play four games with a DH. The Phillies have Francisco and Greg Dobbs. The Cardinals have Rick Ankiel and possibly Troy Glaus. The Dodgers have Thome and the Rockies have the Giambino, who, by the way, have combined for 261 HR from the DH position, 32 HR against the Yankees, and 70 HR against the Red Sox.
I expect this to be a highly competitive postseason as every team comes with considerable strengths. Detroit may be slumping in September, but they've got superior defense up the middle with Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Placido Polanco, and Curtis Granderson, and a serious two-headed monster at the top of the rotation with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. And has anybody noticed that since the All-Star Break, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez are all in the top 12 in the AL in OPS?
Here's my breakdown of how the elite eight stack up in four categories critical to postseason success: top-o-the rotation starters, up-the-middle defense, middle-o-the order bats, and back-o-the bullpen relievers
Top o' The Rotation Starters:
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Chris Carpenter (16-4, 2.34), Adam Wainwright (18-8, 2.59), Joel Pineiro (15-11, 3.24)
2. Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander (16-9, 3.44), Edwin Jackson (13-7, 3.25), Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Cliff Lee (14-11, 2.99), Cole Hamels (10-9, 4.11), Joe Blanton (11-7, 3.82) or J. A. Happ (10-4, 2.77) or Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.32)
4. Boston Red Sox: Jon Lester (14-7, 3.33), Josh Beckett (16-6, 3.78), Clay Buchholz (6-3, 3.49) or Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-0, 2.38 since coming off the DL)
5. New York Yankees: C. C. Sabathia (18-7, 3.31), A. J. Burnett (12-9, 4.19), Andy Pettitte (13-7, 4.15)
6. Colorado Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez (14-11, 3.47), Jorge De La Rosa (15-9, 4.42), Jason Marquis (15-12, 3.98) or Aaron Cook (10-6, 4.47)
7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Randy Wolf (11-6, 3.24), Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.85), Chad Billingsley (12-10, 4.07) or Hiroki Kuroda (8-6, 3.65)
8. Los Angeles Angels: John Lackey (11-8, 3.56), Jered Weaver (15-7, 3.87), Joe Saunders (14-7, 4.63)
Up The Middle Defense:
1. Detroit Tigers: Gerald Laird (42.9% CS), Placido Polanco (9.4 UZR), Adam Everett (6.6 UZR), Curtis Granderson (0.6 UZR)
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Carlos Ruiz (28.4%), Chase Utley (8.9), Jimmy Rollins (4.2), Shane Victorino (-3.9)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: Russell Martin (31.0%), Orlando Hudson (-3.9), Rafael Furcal (7.2), Matt Kemp (5.3)
4. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Napoli (21.7%), Maicer Izturis (8.2) or Howie Kendrick (5.9), Erick Aybar (5.1), Torii Hunter (-5.2)
5. St. Louis Cardinals: Yadier Molina (40.4%), Skip Schumaker (-7.0), Brendan Ryan (13.5) or Julio Lugo (-36.5), Colby Rasmus (10.7)
6. Colorado Rockies: Yorbit Torrealba (14.6%), Clint Barmes (4.5), Troy Tulowitzki (0.7), Carlos Gonzalez (6.4) or Dexter Fowler (-14.1)
7. New York Yankees: Jorge Posada (29.4%), Robinson Cano (-5.8), Derek Jeter (5.9), Melky Cabrera (3.1)
8. Boston Red Sox: Jason Varitek (13.0%) or Victor Martinez (14.3%), Dustin Pedroia (10.9), Jed Lowrie (22.2) or Nick Green (4.8), Jacoby Ellsbury (-11.0)
Middle o' the Order Bats:
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols (1123 OPS), Matt Holliday (911), Ryan Ludwick (783)
2. New York Yankees: Mark Texeira (950), Alex Rodriguez (921), Hideki Matsui (896)
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Chase Utley (941), Ryan Howard (917), Raul Ibanez (912)
4. Boston Red Sox: Victor Martinez (850), Kevin Youkilis (953), Jason Bay (936)
5. Los Angeles Angels: Bobby Abreu (817), Vladimir Guerrero (811), Torii Hunter (892), Kendry Morales (909)
6. Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton (889), Troy Tulowitzki (908), Brad Hawpe (892)
7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Manny Ramirez (973), Andre Ethier (890), Matt Kemp (860)
8. Detroit Tigers: Magglio Ordonez (765), Miguel Cabrera (958), Carlos Guillen (769) or Marcus Thames (770)
Back o' the Bullpen Arms:
1. New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera (42 SV, 1.88 ERA), Phil Hughes (3 SV, 17 HLD, 1.30 ERA), Alfredo Aceves (10-1, 1 SV, 6 HLD, 3.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonathan Broxton (7-1, 35 SV, 2.39 ERA, 13.69 K/9), George Sherrill (21 SV, 10 HLD, 1.81 ERA), Ronald Belisario (12 HLD, 1.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
3. Boston Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon (37 SV, 1.94 ERA), Hideki Okajima (6-0, 24 HLD, 3.30 ERA), Daniel Bard (12 HLD, 1 SV, 3.72 ERA, 11.93 K/9)
4. St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Franklin (37 SV, 1.98 ERA), Dennys Reyes (18 HLD, 3.29 ERA), Trever Miller (13 HLD, 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)
5. Colorado Rockies: Huston Street (33 SV, 2.93 ERA), Rafael Betancourt (2 SV, 18 HLD, 2.82 ERA), Franklin Morales (7 SV, 6 HLD, 2.97 ERA, 9.20 K/9)
6. Detroit Tigers: Fernando Rodney (34 SV, 3.76 ERA), Bobby Seay (6-3, 28 HLD, 3.70), Brandon Lyon (6-4, 3 SV, 14 HLD, 2.94 ERA, 70 IP)
7. Philadelphia Phillies: Brad Lidge (31 SV, 7.48 ERA), Ryan Madson (8 SV, 26 HLD, 3.33 ERA), Chan Ho Park (13 HLD, 2.52 ERA, 9.36 K/9)
8. Los Angeles Angels: Brian Fuentes (44 SV, 4.21 ERA), Kevin Jepsen (6-3, 16 HLD, 4.26 ERA), Darren Oliver (5-1, 16 HLD, 2.53 ERA)
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
What to do about the Giants?
I spent the last week in the Bay Area, during which I spoke at length with several friends about the prospects of their hometown team, the Giants, often while watching said team lose in tragic fashion to the rival Rockies. The humiliation of the Giants in Colorado may have effected the tenor of these conversations, however, in general I was deeply surprised at how cynical San Francisco fans (not generally know for their hang-dog, sourpuss attitudes) were about a team which is still right in the thick of the Wild Card race.
I had high hopes for the Giants going into the season. While many pundits predicted they might challenge San Diego for last place in the NL West, I chose to optimistically conclude that their incredibly talented rotation might make them dangerous, perhaps even a darkhorse contender. Last winter I offered encouragement to these same Giants fans, who were skeptical of the signings of Edgar Renteria and Randy Johnson, predicting that Sabean still had an Ace up his sleeve. Or, more accurately, a Slugger. I fully expected that in March he might announce the signing of an Adam Dunn or a Bobby Abreu, or perhaps their would be a midseason trade for Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, or Prince Fielder. Much to my surprise, while the Giants did succeed in becoming a borderline contender, so such addition was made. Instead, Sabean chose to bolster his offense with two more bit players, Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. This had to be, and was, something of a disappointment for San Francisco fans. And so, with this column, I attempt to ask what is the true state of baseball in the Bay. Should one plead, as I have throughout the week, that they have every reason to keep the faith?
Our story begins with Brian Sabean. Giants fans have grown leery of their longtime general manager, whose contract expires at the end of this season, but who has an option that seems likely to get picked up.
Sabean has a pretty impressive resume overall. During his twelve-year tenure (not counting 2009), the Giants have made four postseason appearances and had eight winning seasons. He was at the helm when the Giants came within eight outs of a World Championship in 2002.
Early in his time with the Giants, Sabean developed a reputation for trades that were more like heists. During his first season he traded the popular, though aging Matt Williams for a package that included future MVP Jeff Kent, as well as Julian Tavarez and Jose Vizcaino, both of whom became useful major leaguers. In 2001, he acquired Jason Schmidt just before he emerged as a Cy Young candidate for the sum total of Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong. And in 2003 he picked up Kenny Lofton, a key figure in the Giants stretch run and postseason, for two pitchers who never made it to the major leagues.
In recent years, however, Sabean's reputation has been marred by some questionable trades (most famously his relinquishment of Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for one year of A. J. Pierzynski) and even more questionable free agent signings. The seven-year, $126 Million contract awarded to Barry Zito may prove to be his albatross, but of course $60 Million for five years of Aaron Rowand, $25 Million for three years of Randy Winn, and $20 Million for two years of an elderly Edgar Renteria are signing which haven't helped his cause.
And, of course, as more fissures have been exposed in the government's legal case (which was quite clearly fueled by the grandstanding of a single federal agent) and more conspicuous evidence of collusion surfaces everyday (despite Bud Selig's "he doth protest too much" protests) many Giants fans are wondering how much better the 2009 lineup would be if Barry Bonds was in it. After all, although he wouldn't be able to play everyday and might be limited on defense, Bonds did express willingness to play for the league minimum. It seems safe to imagine that the all-time home run leader at $500,000 salary, regardless of his age and limitations, would probably have earned his keep. And several time a week he would undoubtedly be a better clean-up hitter than Bengie Molina or Nate Schierholtz.
In this instance Sabean found himself between a rock and a hard place of his own making. Bonds, despite his reputation elsewhere, remains a hero in San Francisco. He was the Giants meal ticket for over a decade, almost single-handedly justifying the privately-funded AT&T Park. The thought of him playing elsewhere or fading into oblivion is difficult for some Giants fans to bear (not to mention some baseball fans, myself included).
However, during the early part of this decade, Sabean oversaw the building of a team that was among the most "grizzled" ever assembled. In Bonds final season, 2007, the Giants featured no less than seven "everyday" players aged 35 or older. Faced with three consecutive losing seasons, it was inevitable that the Giants would feel the need to get younger, even if that meant parting ways with the two primary faces of the franchise, Bonds and Omar Vizquel.
Sabean has been faced over the last two years with the challenge of replacing baseball's main attraction without exposing himself as the architect of entertaining, but inevitably flawed, one-dimensional franchises. Certainly, he could probably have used his stockpile of young pitching to acquire another premier left-handed slugger. Perhaps a Prince Fielder or a Ryan Howard. Instead, perhaps inspired by crosstown rival, Billy Beane, he has held on tight to his pitching prospects and relied on offensive stopgaps, while attempting to groom his own titans in the form of Sandoval, Angel Villalona, and Buster Posey.
The Giants pitching staff currently leads MLB in strikeouts, complete games, and ERA, while their offense is 26th in runs, 29th in homers, and 28th in OPS. Bengie Molina, who hits in the heart of the order, sports an embarrassing 641 OPS over his last 300 plate appearances. The Giants have surrendered 44.5% of their total at-bats to the sextet of Molina, Renteria, Randy Winn, Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, and Emmanuel Burriss, none of whom has posted an OPS within twenty points of the league average.
Obviously, I could go on demonstrating the Giants offensive insufficiencies for pages and pages, but I think it is simple enough to conclude that Sabean's "good pitch, no hit" philosophy is not going to bring a championship or even probably a playoff berth in 2008. But, after four straight losing seasons, 85+ wins (they are currently on pace for 87) would represent a significant step in the right direction. To achieve a winning record with so poor an offensive performance suggests that San Francisco is not too far removed from fielding a contender...if they play their cards right.
Which brings us to the good news. After years of relying on players on the verge of retirement, the Giants have gotten younger very quickly. Bengie Molina and Randy Winn, both of whom have expiring contracts, are the only regulars over 35, and they are both just 35. Perhaps more importantly, the three players which are the keys to the Giants future success - Pablo Sandoval, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain - are all 25 or younger. They have been joined this season by some promising role players also in their twenties, guys like Brian Wilson, Jonathan Sanchez, Eugenio Velez, and Nate Schierholtz. All of these guys are signed through at least 2011 and some well beyond that (Sandoval won't be eligible for free agency until 2015).
When they parted ways with Bonds (as well as Pedro Feliz) after 2007, the Giants had gaping holes in left field, center field, first base, second base, and third base, with shortstop destined to become an issue as well after Vizquel's impending departure.
They have successfully filled at least three of those positions for years to come. Rowand, though overpaid and unspectacular, is a satisfactory center-fielder and a valuable hitter so long as he isn't expected to bat in the middle of the lineup. Freddy Sanchez is a solid-average defensive second baseman who brings excellent bat control to the top of the lineup and, if he enjoys his time in San Francisco, will probably come cheap in free agency after 2010, because he has neither impressive power nor impressive speed. Sandoval is a potential megastar, though the Giants must decide whether to accept his mediocre defense at third base or transfer him to first, a decision not unlike what the Tigers faced with Miguel Cabrera in early 2008.
And, they have more help coming. Eugenio Velez has hit .300 since his promotion in late July. He promises into a legitimate everyday player, potentially in a Mark DeRosa-esque utility role, although he is currently a butcher pretty much wherever he plays. Buster Posey is the Giants future catcher. He has raced through the minors over the last two seasons and is currently posting a 923 OPS at AAA. Expect his arrival very, very soon. Angel Villalona and Conor Gillaspie remain a long way off.
There is also no reason the expect that the rotation won't continue to be dominant. Zito is having his best year since joining the team. Lincecum and Cain are the most lethal 1-2 in all of baseball. Jonathan Sanchez is still a work in progress, but may have the best stuff of any #4 starter in baseball. And next spring, the Giants will have the luxury of auditioning half a dozen promising prospects for the #5 slot. At the moment, one would assume Madison Bumgarner has the inside track, but Henry Sosa and Kevin Pucetas have also dominated the minor leagues.
So, if the Giants want to be serious contenders in 2010 all they really need is a corner infielder and a corner outfielder. It would be a serious bonus if each of them could be counted on for at least 20 HR. Conveniently, San Francisco will presumably have $27 Million coming off the books this winter when they part ways with Molina, Winn, Aurilia, Uribe, and Randy Johnson.
Before my San Francisco friends got too excited about signing a Mark Teixeira-like savior, I had to caution them, the 2010 class is not especially deep. The highlights are Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. In both cases, there is a very hight chance they will re-sign with their current teams.
I had high hopes for the Giants going into the season. While many pundits predicted they might challenge San Diego for last place in the NL West, I chose to optimistically conclude that their incredibly talented rotation might make them dangerous, perhaps even a darkhorse contender. Last winter I offered encouragement to these same Giants fans, who were skeptical of the signings of Edgar Renteria and Randy Johnson, predicting that Sabean still had an Ace up his sleeve. Or, more accurately, a Slugger. I fully expected that in March he might announce the signing of an Adam Dunn or a Bobby Abreu, or perhaps their would be a midseason trade for Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, or Prince Fielder. Much to my surprise, while the Giants did succeed in becoming a borderline contender, so such addition was made. Instead, Sabean chose to bolster his offense with two more bit players, Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko. This had to be, and was, something of a disappointment for San Francisco fans. And so, with this column, I attempt to ask what is the true state of baseball in the Bay. Should one plead, as I have throughout the week, that they have every reason to keep the faith?
Our story begins with Brian Sabean. Giants fans have grown leery of their longtime general manager, whose contract expires at the end of this season, but who has an option that seems likely to get picked up.
Sabean has a pretty impressive resume overall. During his twelve-year tenure (not counting 2009), the Giants have made four postseason appearances and had eight winning seasons. He was at the helm when the Giants came within eight outs of a World Championship in 2002.
Early in his time with the Giants, Sabean developed a reputation for trades that were more like heists. During his first season he traded the popular, though aging Matt Williams for a package that included future MVP Jeff Kent, as well as Julian Tavarez and Jose Vizcaino, both of whom became useful major leaguers. In 2001, he acquired Jason Schmidt just before he emerged as a Cy Young candidate for the sum total of Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong. And in 2003 he picked up Kenny Lofton, a key figure in the Giants stretch run and postseason, for two pitchers who never made it to the major leagues.
In recent years, however, Sabean's reputation has been marred by some questionable trades (most famously his relinquishment of Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for one year of A. J. Pierzynski) and even more questionable free agent signings. The seven-year, $126 Million contract awarded to Barry Zito may prove to be his albatross, but of course $60 Million for five years of Aaron Rowand, $25 Million for three years of Randy Winn, and $20 Million for two years of an elderly Edgar Renteria are signing which haven't helped his cause.
And, of course, as more fissures have been exposed in the government's legal case (which was quite clearly fueled by the grandstanding of a single federal agent) and more conspicuous evidence of collusion surfaces everyday (despite Bud Selig's "he doth protest too much" protests) many Giants fans are wondering how much better the 2009 lineup would be if Barry Bonds was in it. After all, although he wouldn't be able to play everyday and might be limited on defense, Bonds did express willingness to play for the league minimum. It seems safe to imagine that the all-time home run leader at $500,000 salary, regardless of his age and limitations, would probably have earned his keep. And several time a week he would undoubtedly be a better clean-up hitter than Bengie Molina or Nate Schierholtz.
In this instance Sabean found himself between a rock and a hard place of his own making. Bonds, despite his reputation elsewhere, remains a hero in San Francisco. He was the Giants meal ticket for over a decade, almost single-handedly justifying the privately-funded AT&T Park. The thought of him playing elsewhere or fading into oblivion is difficult for some Giants fans to bear (not to mention some baseball fans, myself included).
However, during the early part of this decade, Sabean oversaw the building of a team that was among the most "grizzled" ever assembled. In Bonds final season, 2007, the Giants featured no less than seven "everyday" players aged 35 or older. Faced with three consecutive losing seasons, it was inevitable that the Giants would feel the need to get younger, even if that meant parting ways with the two primary faces of the franchise, Bonds and Omar Vizquel.
Sabean has been faced over the last two years with the challenge of replacing baseball's main attraction without exposing himself as the architect of entertaining, but inevitably flawed, one-dimensional franchises. Certainly, he could probably have used his stockpile of young pitching to acquire another premier left-handed slugger. Perhaps a Prince Fielder or a Ryan Howard. Instead, perhaps inspired by crosstown rival, Billy Beane, he has held on tight to his pitching prospects and relied on offensive stopgaps, while attempting to groom his own titans in the form of Sandoval, Angel Villalona, and Buster Posey.
The Giants pitching staff currently leads MLB in strikeouts, complete games, and ERA, while their offense is 26th in runs, 29th in homers, and 28th in OPS. Bengie Molina, who hits in the heart of the order, sports an embarrassing 641 OPS over his last 300 plate appearances. The Giants have surrendered 44.5% of their total at-bats to the sextet of Molina, Renteria, Randy Winn, Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, and Emmanuel Burriss, none of whom has posted an OPS within twenty points of the league average.
Obviously, I could go on demonstrating the Giants offensive insufficiencies for pages and pages, but I think it is simple enough to conclude that Sabean's "good pitch, no hit" philosophy is not going to bring a championship or even probably a playoff berth in 2008. But, after four straight losing seasons, 85+ wins (they are currently on pace for 87) would represent a significant step in the right direction. To achieve a winning record with so poor an offensive performance suggests that San Francisco is not too far removed from fielding a contender...if they play their cards right.
Which brings us to the good news. After years of relying on players on the verge of retirement, the Giants have gotten younger very quickly. Bengie Molina and Randy Winn, both of whom have expiring contracts, are the only regulars over 35, and they are both just 35. Perhaps more importantly, the three players which are the keys to the Giants future success - Pablo Sandoval, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Cain - are all 25 or younger. They have been joined this season by some promising role players also in their twenties, guys like Brian Wilson, Jonathan Sanchez, Eugenio Velez, and Nate Schierholtz. All of these guys are signed through at least 2011 and some well beyond that (Sandoval won't be eligible for free agency until 2015).
When they parted ways with Bonds (as well as Pedro Feliz) after 2007, the Giants had gaping holes in left field, center field, first base, second base, and third base, with shortstop destined to become an issue as well after Vizquel's impending departure.
They have successfully filled at least three of those positions for years to come. Rowand, though overpaid and unspectacular, is a satisfactory center-fielder and a valuable hitter so long as he isn't expected to bat in the middle of the lineup. Freddy Sanchez is a solid-average defensive second baseman who brings excellent bat control to the top of the lineup and, if he enjoys his time in San Francisco, will probably come cheap in free agency after 2010, because he has neither impressive power nor impressive speed. Sandoval is a potential megastar, though the Giants must decide whether to accept his mediocre defense at third base or transfer him to first, a decision not unlike what the Tigers faced with Miguel Cabrera in early 2008.
And, they have more help coming. Eugenio Velez has hit .300 since his promotion in late July. He promises into a legitimate everyday player, potentially in a Mark DeRosa-esque utility role, although he is currently a butcher pretty much wherever he plays. Buster Posey is the Giants future catcher. He has raced through the minors over the last two seasons and is currently posting a 923 OPS at AAA. Expect his arrival very, very soon. Angel Villalona and Conor Gillaspie remain a long way off.
There is also no reason the expect that the rotation won't continue to be dominant. Zito is having his best year since joining the team. Lincecum and Cain are the most lethal 1-2 in all of baseball. Jonathan Sanchez is still a work in progress, but may have the best stuff of any #4 starter in baseball. And next spring, the Giants will have the luxury of auditioning half a dozen promising prospects for the #5 slot. At the moment, one would assume Madison Bumgarner has the inside track, but Henry Sosa and Kevin Pucetas have also dominated the minor leagues.
So, if the Giants want to be serious contenders in 2010 all they really need is a corner infielder and a corner outfielder. It would be a serious bonus if each of them could be counted on for at least 20 HR. Conveniently, San Francisco will presumably have $27 Million coming off the books this winter when they part ways with Molina, Winn, Aurilia, Uribe, and Randy Johnson.
Before my San Francisco friends got too excited about signing a Mark Teixeira-like savior, I had to caution them, the 2010 class is not especially deep. The highlights are Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. In both cases, there is a very hight chance they will re-sign with their current teams.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Run, River, Run
The St. Louis Cardinals are 15-6 (.714) since the acquisition of Matt Holliday, who, by the way, is hitting .453 with 22 RBI and a 1257 OPS in the National League. You know who else has been pretty good? Julio Lugo. Manny Ramirez's former sidekick is hitting .354 with a 987 OPS. He's made one error in his first ten games. And Mark DeRosa. He's hit eight homers and driven in fifteen runs since the All-Star Break. The team has won every one of Joel Pineiro last eight starts, during which time he has a 2.91 ERA.
What do all these players have in common? They were all acquired via trade by the Cardinal's relatively new GM, John Mozeliak.
Sure, the Cards also still have some guys from that Championship team in 2006: the Ace, Chris Carpenter, his protege, Adam Wainwright, the immovable backstop, Yadier Molina, and, of course, the Machine, Mr. Pujols. You get the picture. Mozeliak didn't exactly start with an empty canvas. But he has, with the rather extraordinary help of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, turned what was likely a borderline playoff team into a legitimate contender.
For the past two seasons he, LaRuss, Duncan, and Marty Mason have assembled a piecemeal bullpen from career minor leaguers and other team's castoffs. Currently, the St. Louis 'pen is home to seven guys who make less than six million dollars combined. Or, to put that in perspective, they make $2.5 Million less than K-Rod does by himself. That 36-year-old desperation closer, Ryan Franklin, who Mozeliak signed to an inexpensive three-year contract before last season, has saved 29 games, blown just one, and has a ridiculous 1.17 ERA. The bullpen has a respectable 3.96 ERA on the season and has been even better since the All-Star break.
Sure, Mozeliak has had a few clunkers - Khalil Greene and Troy Glaus come to mind - but he has been aggressive, his mistakes have been relatively rare and, more importantly, cheap, and he has regained the trust of St. Louis fans who felt burned by the firing of Walt Jocketty, the organizations disputes with LaRussa, and the departure of popular veterans like Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Isringhausen. I would argue that, with the possible exception of Rolen, who left in a trade for Glaus, Mozeliak made a difficult but nonetheless wise baseball decisions. Isringhausen's aging arm has not felt any better in Tampa Bay. Rolen has had a resurgent season, but his back has kept him out of the lineup regularly and sapped his power. Edmonds was perhaps preemptively retired, having proved a useful platoon player for the Cubs in 2008, but he no longer had the legs to be an everyday centerfielder.
The Cardinals, with quite a bit of help from a milktoast Cubs team, could run away with the NL Central if this current hot streak persists through their West Coast roadtrip. When they return home, the will have fifteen straight games against teams with records under .500. There is a lot to be said for the Phillies and Dodgers, and even for the Giants and Rockies, but in a playoff series against any of those teams, the Cardinals will have the two best hitters on the diamond. Also, both of the starters at the front of their rotation have World Series rings, something none of those teams can boast. And their manager has more wins than anybody in the integrated era, which may or may not give him the edge on Joe Torre.
What do all these players have in common? They were all acquired via trade by the Cardinal's relatively new GM, John Mozeliak.
Sure, the Cards also still have some guys from that Championship team in 2006: the Ace, Chris Carpenter, his protege, Adam Wainwright, the immovable backstop, Yadier Molina, and, of course, the Machine, Mr. Pujols. You get the picture. Mozeliak didn't exactly start with an empty canvas. But he has, with the rather extraordinary help of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, turned what was likely a borderline playoff team into a legitimate contender.
For the past two seasons he, LaRuss, Duncan, and Marty Mason have assembled a piecemeal bullpen from career minor leaguers and other team's castoffs. Currently, the St. Louis 'pen is home to seven guys who make less than six million dollars combined. Or, to put that in perspective, they make $2.5 Million less than K-Rod does by himself. That 36-year-old desperation closer, Ryan Franklin, who Mozeliak signed to an inexpensive three-year contract before last season, has saved 29 games, blown just one, and has a ridiculous 1.17 ERA. The bullpen has a respectable 3.96 ERA on the season and has been even better since the All-Star break.
Sure, Mozeliak has had a few clunkers - Khalil Greene and Troy Glaus come to mind - but he has been aggressive, his mistakes have been relatively rare and, more importantly, cheap, and he has regained the trust of St. Louis fans who felt burned by the firing of Walt Jocketty, the organizations disputes with LaRussa, and the departure of popular veterans like Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Isringhausen. I would argue that, with the possible exception of Rolen, who left in a trade for Glaus, Mozeliak made a difficult but nonetheless wise baseball decisions. Isringhausen's aging arm has not felt any better in Tampa Bay. Rolen has had a resurgent season, but his back has kept him out of the lineup regularly and sapped his power. Edmonds was perhaps preemptively retired, having proved a useful platoon player for the Cubs in 2008, but he no longer had the legs to be an everyday centerfielder.
The Cardinals, with quite a bit of help from a milktoast Cubs team, could run away with the NL Central if this current hot streak persists through their West Coast roadtrip. When they return home, the will have fifteen straight games against teams with records under .500. There is a lot to be said for the Phillies and Dodgers, and even for the Giants and Rockies, but in a playoff series against any of those teams, the Cardinals will have the two best hitters on the diamond. Also, both of the starters at the front of their rotation have World Series rings, something none of those teams can boast. And their manager has more wins than anybody in the integrated era, which may or may not give him the edge on Joe Torre.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Fantastic Thoughts (September Call-Ups)
As we near September and roster expansion, here are a few players to keep on your watchlist. Not only is it necessary to be vigilant for players who could be sleepers in next season's draft, but productivity for unheralded prospects can help you down the stretch, especially in head-to-head leagues. You won't find any discussion of Jason Heyward, Justin Smoak, or Stephen Strasburg here. I assume you already know they are must-have prospects in keeper leagues and middle-round draft picks next spring. I more concerned here with guys your leaguemates are likely to be completely ignorant of and who represent late-round steals.
Julio Borbon - OF - Texas Rangers
With Nelson Cruz on the D.L., Borbon has entered into the Rangers outfield and DH timeshare with Daniel Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Andruw Jones. Borbon is having a huge series against Boston, going 6-for-8 with 4 SB in two games. His speed and defense could keep him in the mix as a defensive replacement and occasional starter for Ron Washington even after Cruz returns. Obviously, Cruz, Byrd, and Josh Hamilton are all likely to need regular rest.
In the long run, Julio Borbon's talents will probably land him somewhere between Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre. His primary weapon is, clearly, his incredible speed. This season in AAA he stole 25 bases in 32 attempts and in 2008 he stole 53 bases in 71 tries. Borbon has also shown good contact ability throughout his minor-league career, with a .310 average over three seasons. If he can hit .300 or even .290 in the majors he will find a job someplace. The test will be his plate discipline. Much like Pierre, he profiles as somebody who will be difficult to strike out, but equally difficult to walk. Despite hitting .307 at AAA this season, he OBP was a modest .367. He walked only 33 times and struck out 40 in 400+ AB.
Fantasy players recognize that players such like this, while sometimes frustrating if they're playing for your hometown team, are rotisserie gold, because they will bring useful numbers in the batting average and runs categories, and can single-handedly turn a team into one of the dominant forces in the stolen bases category. Even as a part-time player, given between 300 and 400 AB, Borbon is capable of providing 20-30 SB.
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals
If this season has proven anything, it's that the Royals are the most poorly run franchise in either league. Sure, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Mets have had their share of bumbles, but they've also demonstrated that they have solid plans for the future and their fans have legitimate reasons for optimism. Not so in Kansas City. The Royals seemed primed to make a run at .500 going into this season, but nearly all of their hitters have underachieved and inexplicably they continue to give regular at-bats to Jose Guillen (688 OPS), Willie Bloomquist (657 OPS), Mike Jacobs (728 OPS), and, most distressingly, Yuniesky Betancourt (599 OPS), who they traded for mid-season!!! Considering the apparent ineptitude of GM Dayton Moore, it is almost impossible to predict what the Royals will do this September and during the offseason. But there is no doubt in my mind that Kila Ka'aihue should be given an opportunity to play everyday at the major-league level.
After hitting 37 HR and 100 RBI between AA and AAA in 2008 and performing well in a brief call-up in September, it seemed like the 25-year-old was destined to begin the season on the major-league roster. However, the addition of Mike Jacobs kept Ka'aihue at AAA (inexplicably considering how Jacobs has played). Ka'aihue has not replicated his power numbers from '08, but he still has 17 HR, an 858 OPS, and, most impressively, for the second consecutive season he has more walks (88) than strikeouts (79). There are only eleven players in the majors with a better BB/K ratio above 1.00. They include Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. My point being that BB/K rate is a pretty stellar indicator. Ka'aihue may not develop above-average power, especially for a first basemen, but his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior and suggests that he could develop into a .300 hitter or better.
Jonny Gomes & Wladimir Balentien - OF - Cincinnati Reds
Gomes is 28 and has never been allowed 500 PA in a season. He has hit 20+ HR twice and, after hitting three in one game last week, is on pace to do so again in '09. Since June 7 Gomes is hitting .270 with 14 HR and a 956 OPS. He still averages around a stikeout a game and will no doubt continue to be streaky, but the power is very real. And, after the Chris Dickerson experiment failed, Jay Bruce broke his wrist, and Willy Taveras turned in the worst OPS in all of baseball, Gomes is likely to get everyday at-bats for the rest of the year. If he continues to perform, he could have an inside track for left field in 2010. Gomes is probably a .250 or .260 hitter at best, but given a full season of opportunities, especially in the Great American Smallpark, he will hit 30-40 HR. That's certainly worth a late-round flier in roto leagues.
For some reason the Mariners gave up on Balentien before they even gave him a fighting chance and the Reds got a 24-year-old who showed great power and a fair amount of speed and plate discipline in the high minors. Like Gomes, he is perfectly suited for the friendly confines of Cincinnati and, unlike Gomes, he is still very young and can play centerfield if absolutely necessary. Thusfar Balentien is making the Mariners look silly. In the seven starts he's made for the Reds, he's had a hit in every game and is batting .417 with a 1101 OPS. The NL will no doubt adjust to him, probably exploiting his tendency to overswing and chase pitches early in the count, but it is way to early to suggest that these are problems which can't be fixed.
Gio Gonzalez - SP - Oakland Athletics
The primary piece of the Nick Swisher deal with the White Sox which now looks like a Billy Beane heist, Gonzalez fell behind guys like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro in the stockpile of young Athletics pitchers going into the season, largely because of his continued control problems. However, at a dozen starts at AAA he went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .194 BAA, and 71 K in 61 IP, prompting Beane to find a place for him in the major-league rotation. His overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but if you disregard a start against the Twins in which he allowed eleven earned runs in three innings, Gonzalez has a respectable ERA of 3.65 in eight starts and 47 K in 44 IP. Gonzalez will continue to walk people in bunches, but he is also on his way to becoming one of the leagues premier strikeout artists. He will be at the back-end of the A's rotation from the start next year and, of course, benefits from Oakland's very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Adding him in the late rounds will endanger your WHIP a little, but he could bring with him close to 200 K, a respectable ERA, and 10+ victories.
Aaron Poreda - SP - San Diego Padres
Poreda is also a product of White Sox scouting and development, but came to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal. He has yet to make a major league start, but allowed just three earned runs in eleven innings of relief for the White Sox, striking out a dozen in the process. The Padres have sent him back to AAA to stretch him out. The adjustment hasn't been quick. He has a 9.64 ERA in three starts. However, in a dozen minor-league starts before he was promoted by the White Sox he had a 2.54 ERA and 78 K in 74 IP. Like Gonzalez, Poreda is only 22 and his still developing his control, but he is also likely to get a long look in the Padres rotation and the spacious confines of Petco Park. In the NL he might be able to keep his ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30, while giving you strikeouts in bunches.
Julio Borbon - OF - Texas Rangers
With Nelson Cruz on the D.L., Borbon has entered into the Rangers outfield and DH timeshare with Daniel Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Andruw Jones. Borbon is having a huge series against Boston, going 6-for-8 with 4 SB in two games. His speed and defense could keep him in the mix as a defensive replacement and occasional starter for Ron Washington even after Cruz returns. Obviously, Cruz, Byrd, and Josh Hamilton are all likely to need regular rest.
In the long run, Julio Borbon's talents will probably land him somewhere between Willy Taveras and Juan Pierre. His primary weapon is, clearly, his incredible speed. This season in AAA he stole 25 bases in 32 attempts and in 2008 he stole 53 bases in 71 tries. Borbon has also shown good contact ability throughout his minor-league career, with a .310 average over three seasons. If he can hit .300 or even .290 in the majors he will find a job someplace. The test will be his plate discipline. Much like Pierre, he profiles as somebody who will be difficult to strike out, but equally difficult to walk. Despite hitting .307 at AAA this season, he OBP was a modest .367. He walked only 33 times and struck out 40 in 400+ AB.
Fantasy players recognize that players such like this, while sometimes frustrating if they're playing for your hometown team, are rotisserie gold, because they will bring useful numbers in the batting average and runs categories, and can single-handedly turn a team into one of the dominant forces in the stolen bases category. Even as a part-time player, given between 300 and 400 AB, Borbon is capable of providing 20-30 SB.
Kila Ka'aihue - 1B/DH - Kansas City Royals
If this season has proven anything, it's that the Royals are the most poorly run franchise in either league. Sure, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, and the Mets have had their share of bumbles, but they've also demonstrated that they have solid plans for the future and their fans have legitimate reasons for optimism. Not so in Kansas City. The Royals seemed primed to make a run at .500 going into this season, but nearly all of their hitters have underachieved and inexplicably they continue to give regular at-bats to Jose Guillen (688 OPS), Willie Bloomquist (657 OPS), Mike Jacobs (728 OPS), and, most distressingly, Yuniesky Betancourt (599 OPS), who they traded for mid-season!!! Considering the apparent ineptitude of GM Dayton Moore, it is almost impossible to predict what the Royals will do this September and during the offseason. But there is no doubt in my mind that Kila Ka'aihue should be given an opportunity to play everyday at the major-league level.
After hitting 37 HR and 100 RBI between AA and AAA in 2008 and performing well in a brief call-up in September, it seemed like the 25-year-old was destined to begin the season on the major-league roster. However, the addition of Mike Jacobs kept Ka'aihue at AAA (inexplicably considering how Jacobs has played). Ka'aihue has not replicated his power numbers from '08, but he still has 17 HR, an 858 OPS, and, most impressively, for the second consecutive season he has more walks (88) than strikeouts (79). There are only eleven players in the majors with a better BB/K ratio above 1.00. They include Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer. My point being that BB/K rate is a pretty stellar indicator. Ka'aihue may not develop above-average power, especially for a first basemen, but his plate discipline and pitch recognition is superior and suggests that he could develop into a .300 hitter or better.
Jonny Gomes & Wladimir Balentien - OF - Cincinnati Reds
Gomes is 28 and has never been allowed 500 PA in a season. He has hit 20+ HR twice and, after hitting three in one game last week, is on pace to do so again in '09. Since June 7 Gomes is hitting .270 with 14 HR and a 956 OPS. He still averages around a stikeout a game and will no doubt continue to be streaky, but the power is very real. And, after the Chris Dickerson experiment failed, Jay Bruce broke his wrist, and Willy Taveras turned in the worst OPS in all of baseball, Gomes is likely to get everyday at-bats for the rest of the year. If he continues to perform, he could have an inside track for left field in 2010. Gomes is probably a .250 or .260 hitter at best, but given a full season of opportunities, especially in the Great American Smallpark, he will hit 30-40 HR. That's certainly worth a late-round flier in roto leagues.
For some reason the Mariners gave up on Balentien before they even gave him a fighting chance and the Reds got a 24-year-old who showed great power and a fair amount of speed and plate discipline in the high minors. Like Gomes, he is perfectly suited for the friendly confines of Cincinnati and, unlike Gomes, he is still very young and can play centerfield if absolutely necessary. Thusfar Balentien is making the Mariners look silly. In the seven starts he's made for the Reds, he's had a hit in every game and is batting .417 with a 1101 OPS. The NL will no doubt adjust to him, probably exploiting his tendency to overswing and chase pitches early in the count, but it is way to early to suggest that these are problems which can't be fixed.
Gio Gonzalez - SP - Oakland Athletics
The primary piece of the Nick Swisher deal with the White Sox which now looks like a Billy Beane heist, Gonzalez fell behind guys like Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro in the stockpile of young Athletics pitchers going into the season, largely because of his continued control problems. However, at a dozen starts at AAA he went 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .194 BAA, and 71 K in 61 IP, prompting Beane to find a place for him in the major-league rotation. His overall numbers are pretty mediocre, but if you disregard a start against the Twins in which he allowed eleven earned runs in three innings, Gonzalez has a respectable ERA of 3.65 in eight starts and 47 K in 44 IP. Gonzalez will continue to walk people in bunches, but he is also on his way to becoming one of the leagues premier strikeout artists. He will be at the back-end of the A's rotation from the start next year and, of course, benefits from Oakland's very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Adding him in the late rounds will endanger your WHIP a little, but he could bring with him close to 200 K, a respectable ERA, and 10+ victories.
Aaron Poreda - SP - San Diego Padres
Poreda is also a product of White Sox scouting and development, but came to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal. He has yet to make a major league start, but allowed just three earned runs in eleven innings of relief for the White Sox, striking out a dozen in the process. The Padres have sent him back to AAA to stretch him out. The adjustment hasn't been quick. He has a 9.64 ERA in three starts. However, in a dozen minor-league starts before he was promoted by the White Sox he had a 2.54 ERA and 78 K in 74 IP. Like Gonzalez, Poreda is only 22 and his still developing his control, but he is also likely to get a long look in the Padres rotation and the spacious confines of Petco Park. In the NL he might be able to keep his ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30, while giving you strikeouts in bunches.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Bronx Tales
I'd like to admit from the very start that the Yankees are quite clearly the best team in baseball right now. They're playing confident, consistent baseball at home and on the road. They've got great depth in the lineup, decent depth on the pitching staff, and a solid defense (currently, they're 5th in the AL in fielding percentage). However, as is almost always the case when the Yankees are running hot, there are some audacious claims being made by the Yankee faithful which I'd like to address here.
1.) Derek Jeter is once again the best shortstop in the AL, both offensively and defensively.
There is no doubt that Jeter has made strides to improve his defense since declarations regarding his weakness in that facet of the game became something of a fad among sabermetricians. However, rumors of his resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. Jeter does have a positive Ultimate Zone Rating for the first time since the stat began being recorded in 2001 (quite possible for the first time in his career). However, he is still dead last among AL shortstop in range. His improvement is also assisted by the fact that his double-play partner, Robinson Cano, is also having a career year defensively. Jeter is still clearly inferior to Elvis Andrus and Marco Scutaro, and while his numbers are comparable, I would be reluctant to choose him over younger, quicker, better armed guys like Alexei Ramirez and Erick Aybar.
At the plate, Jeter is on pace for 20 HR for the first time since 2004. He's got his best OPS since he challenged for the MVP in 2006 and he's already got 20 SB, also his most since 2006. Again, notions of his resurgence should be tempered. Like most Yankees, he has been assisted dramatically by the friendly confines of their new ballpark. Jeter's OPS on the road (797) is only 20 points higher than his OPS for 2008. Only 3 of his 14 HR and 18 of his 50 RBI have come away from Yankee Stadium. Jeter remains, as he has been for the last couple years, an excellent contact hitter (.318 at home and on the road) with decent plate discipline and above average baserunning ability. Partially because the AL does not boast anybody on par with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jimmy Rollins, Jeter is among the cream of the crop. However, Jeter fans should note that he trails Jason Bartlett of the Rays in almost ever offensive category (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, SB, SB%, 2B, 3B). His numbers are almost identical to Marco Scutaro's, who doesn't benefit from his home ballpark.
Jeter dedication to improving his defense may mean that he will be able to remain a reasonable starter at shortstop for a couple more seasons, which will save the Yankees from a tough decision, but Jeter is still clearly in the twilight of his career and no longer among the elite at his or really any position.
2.) Mark Texeira is obviously the AL MVP.
Tex is having a great season, especially considering how poor it started and the general pressure of joining the Yankees as a mega-free agent and "future of the franchise" type player. However, let's diffuse the hyperbolic nature of this claim quickly by comparing his numbers to fellow AL first-baseman, Justin Morneau.
Texeira: .288/.385/.565, 71 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, -0.4 UZR
Morneau: .300/.388/.562, 79 R, 28 HR, 94 RBI, -0.9 UZR
I think it's apparent from these lines that Texeira is not running away from the field, and that's not even considering the fact that Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera belong in the conversation as well. When one looks closer at the comparison with Morneau, Texeira picks up another disadvantage. While Morneau has very comparable numbers home and away (988 OPS/13 HR @ Home, 905 OPS/15 HR on Road), Texeira is an entirely different player away from the infamous right-field pavilion at Yankee Stadium (1031 OPS/19 HR @ Home, 867 OPS/11 HR on Road). There's nothing wrong with an 867 OPS. However, if you're going to win an MVP with that number, you better be a Gold Glove winning middle infielder (a.k.a. Pedroia in '08, Tejada in '02).
Tex is an impressive MVP candidate, but it isn't quite time to start clearing room on the shelf.
3.) The starting rotation is the best in baseball.
Yankees starters are 13th in ML in ERA, 12th in innings pitched, and tied for 7th in wins, so clearly this isn't the best rotation statistically. However, clearly what Yankees fans are excited about is the potential postseason rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and (occasionally) Chamberlain. Sabathia is very quietly turning in another excellent season. His ERA (3.64) is higher than it's been since 2005, but he's on pace for 18 wins and 186 K, which are damn fine numbers. He's also currently on pace for nearly 240 IP. He's gone seven innings or more in 16 of his 25 starts. That's great news during the regular season. However, Sabathia also threw 240+ innings in '07 and '08. His heavy load may be one explanation why his postseason ERA is 7.92. New York would be well served to rest their Ace as much as possible down the stretch, a luxury it looks like they will have, so that Sabathia can enter the playoffs refreshed.
It should also be noted that their #2, A. J. Burnett, has never thrown a postseason pitch, which makes him a bit of a wild card. The Yankees top three is solid, but it isn't noticably better than the trios in San Francisco, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.
1.) Derek Jeter is once again the best shortstop in the AL, both offensively and defensively.
There is no doubt that Jeter has made strides to improve his defense since declarations regarding his weakness in that facet of the game became something of a fad among sabermetricians. However, rumors of his resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. Jeter does have a positive Ultimate Zone Rating for the first time since the stat began being recorded in 2001 (quite possible for the first time in his career). However, he is still dead last among AL shortstop in range. His improvement is also assisted by the fact that his double-play partner, Robinson Cano, is also having a career year defensively. Jeter is still clearly inferior to Elvis Andrus and Marco Scutaro, and while his numbers are comparable, I would be reluctant to choose him over younger, quicker, better armed guys like Alexei Ramirez and Erick Aybar.
At the plate, Jeter is on pace for 20 HR for the first time since 2004. He's got his best OPS since he challenged for the MVP in 2006 and he's already got 20 SB, also his most since 2006. Again, notions of his resurgence should be tempered. Like most Yankees, he has been assisted dramatically by the friendly confines of their new ballpark. Jeter's OPS on the road (797) is only 20 points higher than his OPS for 2008. Only 3 of his 14 HR and 18 of his 50 RBI have come away from Yankee Stadium. Jeter remains, as he has been for the last couple years, an excellent contact hitter (.318 at home and on the road) with decent plate discipline and above average baserunning ability. Partially because the AL does not boast anybody on par with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jimmy Rollins, Jeter is among the cream of the crop. However, Jeter fans should note that he trails Jason Bartlett of the Rays in almost ever offensive category (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, SB, SB%, 2B, 3B). His numbers are almost identical to Marco Scutaro's, who doesn't benefit from his home ballpark.
Jeter dedication to improving his defense may mean that he will be able to remain a reasonable starter at shortstop for a couple more seasons, which will save the Yankees from a tough decision, but Jeter is still clearly in the twilight of his career and no longer among the elite at his or really any position.
2.) Mark Texeira is obviously the AL MVP.
Tex is having a great season, especially considering how poor it started and the general pressure of joining the Yankees as a mega-free agent and "future of the franchise" type player. However, let's diffuse the hyperbolic nature of this claim quickly by comparing his numbers to fellow AL first-baseman, Justin Morneau.
Texeira: .288/.385/.565, 71 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, -0.4 UZR
Morneau: .300/.388/.562, 79 R, 28 HR, 94 RBI, -0.9 UZR
I think it's apparent from these lines that Texeira is not running away from the field, and that's not even considering the fact that Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera belong in the conversation as well. When one looks closer at the comparison with Morneau, Texeira picks up another disadvantage. While Morneau has very comparable numbers home and away (988 OPS/13 HR @ Home, 905 OPS/15 HR on Road), Texeira is an entirely different player away from the infamous right-field pavilion at Yankee Stadium (1031 OPS/19 HR @ Home, 867 OPS/11 HR on Road). There's nothing wrong with an 867 OPS. However, if you're going to win an MVP with that number, you better be a Gold Glove winning middle infielder (a.k.a. Pedroia in '08, Tejada in '02).
Tex is an impressive MVP candidate, but it isn't quite time to start clearing room on the shelf.
3.) The starting rotation is the best in baseball.
Yankees starters are 13th in ML in ERA, 12th in innings pitched, and tied for 7th in wins, so clearly this isn't the best rotation statistically. However, clearly what Yankees fans are excited about is the potential postseason rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and (occasionally) Chamberlain. Sabathia is very quietly turning in another excellent season. His ERA (3.64) is higher than it's been since 2005, but he's on pace for 18 wins and 186 K, which are damn fine numbers. He's also currently on pace for nearly 240 IP. He's gone seven innings or more in 16 of his 25 starts. That's great news during the regular season. However, Sabathia also threw 240+ innings in '07 and '08. His heavy load may be one explanation why his postseason ERA is 7.92. New York would be well served to rest their Ace as much as possible down the stretch, a luxury it looks like they will have, so that Sabathia can enter the playoffs refreshed.
It should also be noted that their #2, A. J. Burnett, has never thrown a postseason pitch, which makes him a bit of a wild card. The Yankees top three is solid, but it isn't noticably better than the trios in San Francisco, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
The Red Sox Special @ V-Mart
The BoSox may have made the most surprising acquisition of this trade deadline when they landed Victor Martinez for the package of Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. Much has been made of the fact that the deal makes Terry Francona the operator of an unconventional merry-go-round of five proud veterans at six positions. That quintet of Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Jason Varitek has combined for a somewhat astonishing 17 All-Star appearances, seven times have finished in the top five in MVP voting, and three of them own Gold Gloves (and Youkilis will probably make it four at some point in his young career). They'll make a cool $41.5 million this season.
To Francona falls the delicate task of telling one of these men each day that their name won't be on the lineup card. It's not all bad news. After all, with the exception of Youkilis, all are 30-years-or-older, so they could probably use a little rest. The BoSox manager will also be blessed with a great deal of variety as the quintet is comprise of one lefty, two righties, and two switch-hitters. Here are their platoon splits:
Mike Lowell (R) - vRHP: .294/.320/.450, vLHP: .315/.384/.584
Victor Martinez (S) - vRHP: .307/.373/.471, vLHP: .259/.363/.466
David Ortiz (L) - vRHP: .222/.320/.407, vLHP: .230/.294/.451
Jason Varitek (S) - vRHP: .223/.332/.406, vLHP: .250/.370/.539
Kevin Youkilis (L) - vRHP: .307/.408/.568, vLHP: .330/.464/.614
As you can see, only Varitek and Lowell show significant variations, and, as they are also the most senior citizens of Red Sox Nation, they will probably be getting the most days off. In truth, whether it happen now, in October, or at the beginning of next season, this trade probably means that, as John Kruk has suggested, Captain 'Tek is headed for a back-up role. Maybe he'll finally learn to catch Tim Wakefield. There are a few reasons for this. First, and foremost is, of course, that Victor Martinez is a legit middle-of-the-order hitter. Varitek wasn't V-Mart's offensive equal at any point in his career, but, while he's improved dramatically over his 2008 campaign, Varitek's current skill-set makes him undoubtedly the easiest out in the Red Sox lineup (bye-bye Julio Lugo and Nick Green), especially against right-handed pitching.
The faithful will say that 'Tek makes up for his offensive woes by being one of the game's greatest behind the plate. And this assertion, often followed by superlatives about "game-calling," is backed up of a 3.73 Catcher's ERA, best in the American League. His defense, however, does have one glaring flaw. While Varitek was never mistaken for a long-lost Molina brother, he threw out a respectable 24.7% of basestealers over his first eleven season. This year he's "gunned" down a mere 14%. This decline is contemporaneous with an much-noted increase in stolen base attempts around the league. As a result Varitek (and the Boston pitching staff, to be fair) is on pace to give up 120+ free bases in 2009. To put those numbers in perspective: Yadier Molina has a CS% of 41.0% and will fall victim to only around 30 successful attempts this season, despite playing in 15-25 more games.
It is no longer acceptable to ignore a catcher's throwing ability. It has been a growing trend since Mike Piazza tempted managers with the thought that they could get 30 HR and 100 RBI a season from their backstop. But Piazza never had to deal with those runnin' Rays. From 1993 to 2005, roughly the length of Piazza's catching career, only 27 players stole 50 or more bases and nobody stole more than 75. Moreover, only two teams, the '93 Expos and the '96 Rockies, stole more than 200 bases. The '96 Rockies were the only team to accomplish that feat from 1994 to 2006. Assuming the Rays maintain their current pace, both the '09 Rays and the '07 Mets will have joined the 200 SB club in the last three seasons. A dozen players have produced 50+ SB seasons in that time, assuming that the five new members from '09 maintain their current pace.
In the two game series between the Rays and Red Sox this week, the Rays nabbed six bases off Varitek in seven attempts. The only man he threw out was the not so fleet-footed Carlos Pena, which only further proves that Tampa Bay felt as though they could take extra bases with impunity.
Victor Martinez doesn't have the best arm in baseball, but in 2008 he threw out 37.1% and 32% in 2007. Though his legend may not be as thoroughly ingrained in the minds of the BoSox faithful, Martinez also has the reputation of a great "game-caller," and his career Catcher's ERA is 4.41 (Varitek's is 4.21), despite having managed some pretty poorly pitching staffs.
Martinez will be an improvement over Varitek both offensively and defensively, but Varitek will no doubt continue to catch two or three games a week (at which time V-Mart will often play first or DH) and this should help keep both of them fresher.
There is also one consideration which should not go unmentioned. Varitek has a player option for 2010. Considering the current market for veterans, it is unlikely he would find a job (or, at least, a million-dollar job) as a free agent with another team. That, and it seems unlikely he would want to leave Boston this late in his career. However, the Red Sox built his contract is such a way that if they were disappointed in his 2009 performance, his base salary would fall from $5 Million to $3 Million with bonuses based on games played ($400,000 for every ten starts past 80). It is very unlikely that the Red Sox will pay more than one of the bonuses in 2010. After all, Martinez has a club option for $7 Million, a steal for somebody of his talent.
We are nearing the end of a BoSox decade, and, fittingly, Varitek, Martinez, Ortiz, Lowell, and Josh Beckett all have contracts that expire at the end of 2010 (by which time J.D. Drew may become the longest tenured Red Sox). At that point, neither Varitek nor Martinez will probably be in Boston's plans, at least at catcher, especially if the trends toward speed and defense in the post-steroid era continue. And, on that note, you should check out the profile of Yadier Molina in this week's ESPN: The Magazine.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Welcome to the show, Meat.
2007 was "the year of the rookie." In the NL, Ryan Braun just best Troy Tulowitzki for the Rookie of the Year award by hitting .324 with 34 HR, 97 RBI, and 15 SB in only 451 AB. Dustin Pedroia won the AL version of the award as he hit .317 and scored 86 runs for the World Series champions. 2007 also introduced us to future All-Stars Tim Lincecum, Josh Hamilton, Justin Upton, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hunter Pence, and Joakim Soria. Delmon Young and Chris Young both had solid campaigns, though they have yet to live up to their considerable potential.
In all honesty, 2006 may have been an even better year for rookies. There wasn't anybody to equal the production of Braun, but that season introduced us to such future luminaries as Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Russell Martin, Josh Johnson, Andre Ethier, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Kinsler, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Broxton, Adam Wainwright, Jered Weaver, Dan Uggla, Corey Hart, and Francisco Liriano. In four seasons, that group has accumulated no less that 23 All-Star appearances.
Last year gave us several more impressive rookies, including Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Joba Chamberlain, Joey Votto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jay Bruce, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Davis, and Alexei Ramirez. There were six rookies from 2008 who hit at least 20 HR. Four drove in at least 75 runs. And five pitchers notched double-digit wins.
This season has been a much different story. Highly-touted rookies like Matt Wieters and David Price have floundered a bit. There are currently no rookie hitters on pace for 20 HR or 75 RBI. Gerardo Parra leads all rookies with 38 RBI. Colby Rasmus leads with just 11 HR. There is no rookie hitter with 250+ plate appearances who sports an OPS above 738.
The pitching side has been a little stronger. In all likelihood Jeff Niemann, Ricky Romero, Rick Porcello, and Matt Palmer will all notch double-digit wins, though Porcello and Palmer have not pitcher particularly well, especially recently. J.A. Happ and Randy Wells could get there as well, currently they each have 7 W and ERAs under 3.00. However, Happ could finish the season in the bullpen after the additions of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez.
Several of the seasons best rookies did not arrive until late June or early July. Andrew McCutchen got Pittsburgh some much-needed positive publicity last night by hitting three homers in a game. McCutchen has hit .294 since his promotion, with 25 extra-base hits. He's also yet to be caught stealing in nine attempts. Gordon Beckham of the White Sox has also been making a splash. This afternoon he picked up his 36th RBI in only 52 games. Tommy Hanson has made ten starts for the Braves, going 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
Hanson, McCutchen, and Beckham are each only 22-years-old. They are representative of the increasing temptation for teams to turn to prospects early, which may be one reason why rookies stats are a little more modest. Only a few years ago teams resisted promoting any but the most superior prospects - guys like Braun, Longoria, and Upton - before they were at least 23 or 24. Here is the list of players this season 22 or younger who are holding down (or held down) regular positions in the major leagues:
Brett Anderson - SP - OAK (6-8 - 4.33 ERA - 1.31 WHIP - 85 K)
Elvis Andrus - SS - TEX (.261 - 4 HR - 19 RBI - 686 OPS)
Gordon Beckham - 3B - CWS (.311 - 5 HR - 36 RBI - 858 OPS)
Kyle Blanks - 1B - SDP (.227 - 5 HR - 13 RBI - 813 OPS)
Jay Bruce - RF - CIN (.207 - 18 HR - 41 RBI - 725 OPS)
Everth Cabrera - SS - SDP (.258 - 1 HR - 14 RBI - 733 OPS)
Trevor Cahill - SP - OAK (6-10 - 5.01 ERA - 1.52 WHIP - 58 K)
Tommy Hanson - SP - ATL (5-2 - 3.25 ERA - 1.33 WHIP - 41 K)
Derek Holland - SP - TEX (4-6 - 5.56 ERA - 1.48 WHIP - 64 K)
Clayton Kershaw - SP - LAD (8-5 - 2.76 ERA - 1.23 WHIP - 117 K)
Mat Latos - SP - SDP (2-1 - 2.70 ERA - 0.78 WHIP - 13 K)
Fernando Martinez - OF - NYM (.176 - 1 HR - 8 RBI - 517 OPS)
Shairon Martis - SP - WAS (5-2 - 5.25 ERA - 1.42 WHIP - 34 K)
Cameron Maybin - CF - FLA (.202 - 1 HR - 3 RBI - 589 OPS)
Vin Mazzaro - SP - OAK (2-7 - 5.16 ERA - 1.61 WHIP - 43 K)
Andrew McCutcheon - CF - PIT (.292 - 6 HR - 31 RBI - 834 OPS)
Jonathon Niese - SP - NYM (1-1 - 4.50 ERA - 1.42 WHIP - 16 K)
Sean O'Sullivan - SP - LAA (3-0 - 3.72 ERA - 1.38 WHIP - 16 K)
Gerardo Parra - OF - ARZ (.274 - 5 HR - 38 RBI - 732 OPS)
Ryan Perry - RP - DET (5 HLD - 3.63 ERA - 1.47 WHIP - 32 K)
Rick Porcello - SP - DET (9-7 - 4.36 ERA - 1.41 WHIP - 55 K)
Aaron Poreda - SP - CWS (1-0 - 2.45 ERA - 1.55 WHIP - 12 K)
Colby Rasmus - CF - STL (.252 - 11 HR - 35 RBI - 730 OPS)
Josh Reddick - OF - BOS (.444 - 1 HR - 2 RBI - 1500 OPS)
Pablo Sandoval - 3B - SF (.324 - 16 HR - 63 RBI - 924 OPS)
Michael Saunders - LF - SEA (.160 - 0 HR - 1 RBI - 320 OPS)
Jordan Schafer - CF - ATL (.204 - 2 HR - 8 RBI - 600 OPS)
Travis Snider - LF - TOR (.242 - 3 HR - 12 RBI - 686 OPS)
Chris Tillman - SP - BAL (0-0 - 5.79 ERA - 1.71 WHIP - 2 K)
Justin Upton - RF - ARZ (.302 - 20 HR - 65 RBI - 926 OPS)
Chris Volstad - SP - FLA (8-9 - 4.35 ERA - 1.25 WHIP - 91 K)
That's 31 players! A few, like Martinez, Niese, Blanks, and Cabrera, were forced into action by injuries, trades, or unexpected roster situations, but most of these guys are with the big club by design and one has to wonder whether they are in the best possible situation for their progress. Derek Holland looked great last week, taking a shutout into the 9th inning, but his overall numbers leave a lot to be desired. Rick Porcello has had flashes of brilliance as well and sports solid overall numbers, but since the beginning of June he's 3-4 with a 5.20 ERA. Trevor Cahill and Vin Mazzaro has been given very long leashes in Oakland because Billy Beane believes they can mature into Aces at the major-league level. He had great luck with Hudson, Mulder, and Zito in a similar situation, but that isn't always the case. Detroit tried the same thing with Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, and Nate Cornejo. That didn't go so well.
This is all part of the trend towards youth which has gotten a lot of publicity lately, but teams seem to be misunderstanding the value to young players. Sure, Upton, Sandoval, Kershaw, and Hanson proved they had nothing left to prove at AAA and could outperform the guys in front of them on the MLB roster. However, when you promote a guy like Holland, Andrus, or Suanders to early, it not only endangers their confidence, but it decreases their value, because the clock starts ticking on them before they start producing for the franchise. Texas will have to pay arbitration on Andrus and Holland in 2011. Cahill, Anderson, and Mazzaro will qualify for free agency a year earlier, perhaps giving Oakland one less shot at contention.
In all honesty, 2006 may have been an even better year for rookies. There wasn't anybody to equal the production of Braun, but that season introduced us to such future luminaries as Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Russell Martin, Josh Johnson, Andre Ethier, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Kinsler, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Broxton, Adam Wainwright, Jered Weaver, Dan Uggla, Corey Hart, and Francisco Liriano. In four seasons, that group has accumulated no less that 23 All-Star appearances.
Last year gave us several more impressive rookies, including Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Joba Chamberlain, Joey Votto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jay Bruce, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Davis, and Alexei Ramirez. There were six rookies from 2008 who hit at least 20 HR. Four drove in at least 75 runs. And five pitchers notched double-digit wins.
This season has been a much different story. Highly-touted rookies like Matt Wieters and David Price have floundered a bit. There are currently no rookie hitters on pace for 20 HR or 75 RBI. Gerardo Parra leads all rookies with 38 RBI. Colby Rasmus leads with just 11 HR. There is no rookie hitter with 250+ plate appearances who sports an OPS above 738.
The pitching side has been a little stronger. In all likelihood Jeff Niemann, Ricky Romero, Rick Porcello, and Matt Palmer will all notch double-digit wins, though Porcello and Palmer have not pitcher particularly well, especially recently. J.A. Happ and Randy Wells could get there as well, currently they each have 7 W and ERAs under 3.00. However, Happ could finish the season in the bullpen after the additions of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez.
Several of the seasons best rookies did not arrive until late June or early July. Andrew McCutchen got Pittsburgh some much-needed positive publicity last night by hitting three homers in a game. McCutchen has hit .294 since his promotion, with 25 extra-base hits. He's also yet to be caught stealing in nine attempts. Gordon Beckham of the White Sox has also been making a splash. This afternoon he picked up his 36th RBI in only 52 games. Tommy Hanson has made ten starts for the Braves, going 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
Hanson, McCutchen, and Beckham are each only 22-years-old. They are representative of the increasing temptation for teams to turn to prospects early, which may be one reason why rookies stats are a little more modest. Only a few years ago teams resisted promoting any but the most superior prospects - guys like Braun, Longoria, and Upton - before they were at least 23 or 24. Here is the list of players this season 22 or younger who are holding down (or held down) regular positions in the major leagues:
Brett Anderson - SP - OAK (6-8 - 4.33 ERA - 1.31 WHIP - 85 K)
Elvis Andrus - SS - TEX (.261 - 4 HR - 19 RBI - 686 OPS)
Gordon Beckham - 3B - CWS (.311 - 5 HR - 36 RBI - 858 OPS)
Kyle Blanks - 1B - SDP (.227 - 5 HR - 13 RBI - 813 OPS)
Jay Bruce - RF - CIN (.207 - 18 HR - 41 RBI - 725 OPS)
Everth Cabrera - SS - SDP (.258 - 1 HR - 14 RBI - 733 OPS)
Trevor Cahill - SP - OAK (6-10 - 5.01 ERA - 1.52 WHIP - 58 K)
Tommy Hanson - SP - ATL (5-2 - 3.25 ERA - 1.33 WHIP - 41 K)
Derek Holland - SP - TEX (4-6 - 5.56 ERA - 1.48 WHIP - 64 K)
Clayton Kershaw - SP - LAD (8-5 - 2.76 ERA - 1.23 WHIP - 117 K)
Mat Latos - SP - SDP (2-1 - 2.70 ERA - 0.78 WHIP - 13 K)
Fernando Martinez - OF - NYM (.176 - 1 HR - 8 RBI - 517 OPS)
Shairon Martis - SP - WAS (5-2 - 5.25 ERA - 1.42 WHIP - 34 K)
Cameron Maybin - CF - FLA (.202 - 1 HR - 3 RBI - 589 OPS)
Vin Mazzaro - SP - OAK (2-7 - 5.16 ERA - 1.61 WHIP - 43 K)
Andrew McCutcheon - CF - PIT (.292 - 6 HR - 31 RBI - 834 OPS)
Jonathon Niese - SP - NYM (1-1 - 4.50 ERA - 1.42 WHIP - 16 K)
Sean O'Sullivan - SP - LAA (3-0 - 3.72 ERA - 1.38 WHIP - 16 K)
Gerardo Parra - OF - ARZ (.274 - 5 HR - 38 RBI - 732 OPS)
Ryan Perry - RP - DET (5 HLD - 3.63 ERA - 1.47 WHIP - 32 K)
Rick Porcello - SP - DET (9-7 - 4.36 ERA - 1.41 WHIP - 55 K)
Aaron Poreda - SP - CWS (1-0 - 2.45 ERA - 1.55 WHIP - 12 K)
Colby Rasmus - CF - STL (.252 - 11 HR - 35 RBI - 730 OPS)
Josh Reddick - OF - BOS (.444 - 1 HR - 2 RBI - 1500 OPS)
Pablo Sandoval - 3B - SF (.324 - 16 HR - 63 RBI - 924 OPS)
Michael Saunders - LF - SEA (.160 - 0 HR - 1 RBI - 320 OPS)
Jordan Schafer - CF - ATL (.204 - 2 HR - 8 RBI - 600 OPS)
Travis Snider - LF - TOR (.242 - 3 HR - 12 RBI - 686 OPS)
Chris Tillman - SP - BAL (0-0 - 5.79 ERA - 1.71 WHIP - 2 K)
Justin Upton - RF - ARZ (.302 - 20 HR - 65 RBI - 926 OPS)
Chris Volstad - SP - FLA (8-9 - 4.35 ERA - 1.25 WHIP - 91 K)
That's 31 players! A few, like Martinez, Niese, Blanks, and Cabrera, were forced into action by injuries, trades, or unexpected roster situations, but most of these guys are with the big club by design and one has to wonder whether they are in the best possible situation for their progress. Derek Holland looked great last week, taking a shutout into the 9th inning, but his overall numbers leave a lot to be desired. Rick Porcello has had flashes of brilliance as well and sports solid overall numbers, but since the beginning of June he's 3-4 with a 5.20 ERA. Trevor Cahill and Vin Mazzaro has been given very long leashes in Oakland because Billy Beane believes they can mature into Aces at the major-league level. He had great luck with Hudson, Mulder, and Zito in a similar situation, but that isn't always the case. Detroit tried the same thing with Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, and Nate Cornejo. That didn't go so well.
This is all part of the trend towards youth which has gotten a lot of publicity lately, but teams seem to be misunderstanding the value to young players. Sure, Upton, Sandoval, Kershaw, and Hanson proved they had nothing left to prove at AAA and could outperform the guys in front of them on the MLB roster. However, when you promote a guy like Holland, Andrus, or Suanders to early, it not only endangers their confidence, but it decreases their value, because the clock starts ticking on them before they start producing for the franchise. Texas will have to pay arbitration on Andrus and Holland in 2011. Cahill, Anderson, and Mazzaro will qualify for free agency a year earlier, perhaps giving Oakland one less shot at contention.
Friday, July 31, 2009
As of this evening, seventeen teams could fairly consider themselves contenders. And that's not counting Seattle or the Mets, each of which are within six and a half games of the Wild Card. However, each of them more or less announced this week that their seasons were over. The Mariners traded their second-best starting pitcher, Jarrod Washburn, to the Tigers and the Mets decided not to pursue reinforcements for the injury-devastated roster which has fallen a full ten games back of the rival Phillies in the NL East.
For the remaining eighteen, the first two weeks of August will be a bit of a gauntlet and by the middle of the month the field will probably be pared down to a dozen or less. Among them certainly will be, to nobody's great surprise, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. Most prognosticators considered this the most promising trio in baseball when the season began and, although each team suffered slumps which had some pundits doubting their own predictions, as August begins, they are each right where they were expected to be. Likewise for the reigning champs, the Phillies, who can pick up their 20th win of July this evening if they win the first start by newly-acquired Ace, Cliff Lee. The Dodgers, while appearing quite vulnerable in their four-game set against the revitalized Cardinals, still have the best record in all of baseball and have basically sewn up the NL West. The Cardinals and Cubs, now locked atop the NL Central, will almost certainly take their rivalry into the season's final weeks as both teams appear to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Those are the usual suspects. Here are the eleven franchises which are still trying to prove they are for real:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
The reigning AL champs have been pretty damn good again this season. The only reason I don't assume they will continue to hang around at least into September is they are going to have to leapfrog either the Yankees or Red Sox. The Rays lineup has been outstanding, but they need to get improved effort from James Shields, Scott Kazmir, and Matt Garza. They'll have a chance to gain a little momentum in the next two weeks, with seven games against the anemic offenses of Kansas City and Seattle, and only five games against contenders. They'll get to face the Angels prior to the return of Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero. If they are going to keep pace with the "dynasty" teams down the stretch, they need to be striking distance by the beginning of September, during which they have 13 games against Boston and New York.
2. San Francisco Giants
The Giants are currently atop the NL Wild Card standings and have been for most of the last month or so. There is no doubting their pitching, as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are probably the top two candidates for the league's Cy Young thus far. Their offense is improving. Pablo Sandoval has become a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter; the first in San Francisco since collusion drove Barry Bonds out of baseball. Brian Sabean is hoping that Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko will be enough to bolster a lineup which usually doesn't need to produce more than four or five runs to win. San Francisco has yet to reveal it's biggest midseason addition, as they consider if and when it is time to promote blue chip prospects Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, and Kevin Pucetas. If the team is still in a tight race for the Wild Card we may see all three getting major roles in September.
3. Detroit Tigers
They've been in first place since the middle of May, but they haven't been able to get any distance on the field, currently leading the White Sox and Twins by two games. The addition of Jarrod Washburn should solidify the back-end of the rotation, taking some pressure off of the young trio of Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, and Armando Galarraga. More important, however, is that Detroit gets second-half hot streaks from Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez. Hard to believe that prior to 2008 many, myself included, believed Detroit has one of the most potent lineup ever assembled (and they did score 821 runs in 2008), now they are 10th in the AL in scoring, behind mediocre teams like Toronto and Baltimore.
4. Texas Rangers
Most of the April and May surprises fizzled in the summer heat. Long forgotten are the first-place Blue Jays and Mariners and the double-digit winning streak of the San Diego Padres. The Ranger, however, have hung around. Currently they're just three back of the Angels and what's most impressive about it is that the Rangers haven't hit their stride offensively. Josh Hamilton, clearly still recovering from his various injuries, has only seven homers. Ian Kinser is hitting just .242 with an OPS under 800. Chris Davis had to be demoted so that he didn't demolish the major-league record for strikeouts. And the highly-touted catching duo of Saltalamacchia (665 OPS) and Teagarden (532 OPS) has been absolutely brutal. It's hard to believe, but the Rangers are sticking around with their starting pitching. Four members of the rotation (Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, and Hunter) have winning records, and rookie Derrek Holland (4-6) has had moments of brilliance as well. One has to believe that Texas will have better offense during the dog days. If so, they may make a run at the Angels. In the next two weeks they'll make an important west coast swing, facing Seattle, Oakland, and then Anaheim.
5. Colorado Rockies
August is a make or break month for the Rockies. Twenty of their twenty-eight games come against contenders, including seven against the division rival Giants who are sitting right in front of them in the Wild Card standings. Like the Rangers, the Rockies are getting unusually strong production from their starting rotation. Their starter's ERA (4.04) is 6th best in the NL, despite having the toughest home park for pitchers. Unlike the Rangers, the Rockies are also getting it done with the bats, trailing only the Phillies in scoring. They will need to get continued production from their "Ace," Jason Marquis, who's famous for his late-season fades (4.86 career ERA after All-Star Break), if they're going to survive the month. If they do, they can look forward to 19 of 22 games against bottom-feeders, the Mets, D-Backs, Reds, and Padres, at the beginning of September.
6. Chicago White Sox
Nobody can accuse Kenny Williams of being trigger shy. He dealt his two best pitching prospects, both major-league ready, for a guy on the disabled list who may not be ready to pitch until September. What Kenny knows, however, is that after this weekend's series with the Yankees and then another home series against the Angels, the Sox get to face Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. If they can't keep pace through that stretch, they don't stand a chance regardless of the Peavy's health. What he needs is for Peavy to be ready to pitch when they hit a stretch of fifteen straight against the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, and Cubs. The Sox are a "lite" version of the 2005 team which won the World Series. They've got consistent starting pitching, strong defense, and several guys who can hit the long ball. Much will depend, however, on health. Not only Peavy, but also Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, who are the only youthful energizers in the Chicago lineup.
7. Minnesota Twins
By sweeping the White Sox earlier this week, the Twins moved themselves into a tie for second place. This is not a typical Twins team. They've only got two starting pitchers with ERAs under 4.00 (Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak). But, what they do have is four hitters with 17 or more homers and 50+ RBI. The middle of the Twins order - Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer - is becoming one of the more imposing in the American League, and all those players, as well as leadoff man Denard Span, are homegrown. Unfortunately, their other homegrown quartet, pitchers Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker, expected to be one of the best young rotations in the league this season, has been truly putrid. Those four have combined for a 30-25 record with a 4.72 ERA. Slowey is now out for the season and Liriano may soon follow him. Baker is showing signs of life, allowing only four earned runs in his last three starts, but if the Twins can't bolster their rotation somehow, the only interesting race in September will be Joe Mauer fighting Ichiro for his third batting title.
8. Florida Marlins
The Marlins won the World Series in 1997. They won it again in 2003. So, they're on the six-year plan, right? So...
If they're going to win again in 2009, they'll need to have a good second half. Which may be possible, as they've won eight of their last ten, including four of six against the Dodgers and Braves. In the next three weeks they'll need to do similarly well against the Cubs, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros. If the Marlins are still hanging around at that point, I'll start to be afraid. Until then, they look to me like pretenders.
9. Milwaukee Brewers
I will say this much: I don't want any part of Milwaukee if I'm another NL manager. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are probably the most intimidating duo in baseball, combining already for 46 HR and 159 RBI. They can put a game almost out of reach by the third inning. The rest of the team, however, leaves much to be desired. Corey Hart and J. J. Hardy have been disappointments after breaking out in 2008. Manny Parra (5-8, 6.50) has not lived up to his potential either. Yovani Gallardo (10-7, 3.13) has been great, but the rest of Brewers starters have a 24-30 record. There just isn't enough pitching for the organization to make their second consecutive appearance in October.
10. Atlanta Braves
You can't say they didn't try. After their first losing season in almost two decades, the Braves management went out this offseason and acquired Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Jairr Jurrjens. That trio has combined for 27-21 record and a 3.29 ERA. They also signed Kensin Kawakami, who's been respectable at 5-8, 4.37. When they couldn't find a veteran to take over the #5 spot, they turned to rookie Tommy Hanson, who's been exceptional (5-1, 3.25). Then, when the team proved to be offensively challenged, they added Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, and Ryan Church. None of them are huge names, but all are improvements over the players they replaced. This rotation would be a nightmare in October, but I don't think they're going to get there. This team just doesn't appear to have enough offense, especially when Chipper Jones takes his obligatory trips to the D.L. Chipper leads the team with only 13 HR. They don't have anybody on pace for 100 RBI.
11. Houston Astros
The Astros are a mirage. One which will be forgotten by the end of next week. They've already lost six of their last seven. Their next eighteen games come against other NL contenders. Their rotation includes Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36 ERA), Brian Moehler (7-6, 4.99), and, until recently, Russ Ortiz (3-6, 5.57). Their current lineup includes Chris Coste (700 OPS), Ivan Rodriguez (679 OPS), Kaz Matsui (656 OPS), and Geoff Blum (714 OPS). Miguel Tejada is quietly having an excellent season, much to the surprise of many after his rough offseason, but most of the rest of Houston's success is smoke and mirrors.
For the remaining eighteen, the first two weeks of August will be a bit of a gauntlet and by the middle of the month the field will probably be pared down to a dozen or less. Among them certainly will be, to nobody's great surprise, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. Most prognosticators considered this the most promising trio in baseball when the season began and, although each team suffered slumps which had some pundits doubting their own predictions, as August begins, they are each right where they were expected to be. Likewise for the reigning champs, the Phillies, who can pick up their 20th win of July this evening if they win the first start by newly-acquired Ace, Cliff Lee. The Dodgers, while appearing quite vulnerable in their four-game set against the revitalized Cardinals, still have the best record in all of baseball and have basically sewn up the NL West. The Cardinals and Cubs, now locked atop the NL Central, will almost certainly take their rivalry into the season's final weeks as both teams appear to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Those are the usual suspects. Here are the eleven franchises which are still trying to prove they are for real:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
The reigning AL champs have been pretty damn good again this season. The only reason I don't assume they will continue to hang around at least into September is they are going to have to leapfrog either the Yankees or Red Sox. The Rays lineup has been outstanding, but they need to get improved effort from James Shields, Scott Kazmir, and Matt Garza. They'll have a chance to gain a little momentum in the next two weeks, with seven games against the anemic offenses of Kansas City and Seattle, and only five games against contenders. They'll get to face the Angels prior to the return of Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero. If they are going to keep pace with the "dynasty" teams down the stretch, they need to be striking distance by the beginning of September, during which they have 13 games against Boston and New York.
2. San Francisco Giants
The Giants are currently atop the NL Wild Card standings and have been for most of the last month or so. There is no doubting their pitching, as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are probably the top two candidates for the league's Cy Young thus far. Their offense is improving. Pablo Sandoval has become a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter; the first in San Francisco since collusion drove Barry Bonds out of baseball. Brian Sabean is hoping that Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko will be enough to bolster a lineup which usually doesn't need to produce more than four or five runs to win. San Francisco has yet to reveal it's biggest midseason addition, as they consider if and when it is time to promote blue chip prospects Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, and Kevin Pucetas. If the team is still in a tight race for the Wild Card we may see all three getting major roles in September.
3. Detroit Tigers
They've been in first place since the middle of May, but they haven't been able to get any distance on the field, currently leading the White Sox and Twins by two games. The addition of Jarrod Washburn should solidify the back-end of the rotation, taking some pressure off of the young trio of Rick Porcello, Edwin Jackson, and Armando Galarraga. More important, however, is that Detroit gets second-half hot streaks from Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez. Hard to believe that prior to 2008 many, myself included, believed Detroit has one of the most potent lineup ever assembled (and they did score 821 runs in 2008), now they are 10th in the AL in scoring, behind mediocre teams like Toronto and Baltimore.
4. Texas Rangers
Most of the April and May surprises fizzled in the summer heat. Long forgotten are the first-place Blue Jays and Mariners and the double-digit winning streak of the San Diego Padres. The Ranger, however, have hung around. Currently they're just three back of the Angels and what's most impressive about it is that the Rangers haven't hit their stride offensively. Josh Hamilton, clearly still recovering from his various injuries, has only seven homers. Ian Kinser is hitting just .242 with an OPS under 800. Chris Davis had to be demoted so that he didn't demolish the major-league record for strikeouts. And the highly-touted catching duo of Saltalamacchia (665 OPS) and Teagarden (532 OPS) has been absolutely brutal. It's hard to believe, but the Rangers are sticking around with their starting pitching. Four members of the rotation (Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, and Hunter) have winning records, and rookie Derrek Holland (4-6) has had moments of brilliance as well. One has to believe that Texas will have better offense during the dog days. If so, they may make a run at the Angels. In the next two weeks they'll make an important west coast swing, facing Seattle, Oakland, and then Anaheim.
5. Colorado Rockies
August is a make or break month for the Rockies. Twenty of their twenty-eight games come against contenders, including seven against the division rival Giants who are sitting right in front of them in the Wild Card standings. Like the Rangers, the Rockies are getting unusually strong production from their starting rotation. Their starter's ERA (4.04) is 6th best in the NL, despite having the toughest home park for pitchers. Unlike the Rangers, the Rockies are also getting it done with the bats, trailing only the Phillies in scoring. They will need to get continued production from their "Ace," Jason Marquis, who's famous for his late-season fades (4.86 career ERA after All-Star Break), if they're going to survive the month. If they do, they can look forward to 19 of 22 games against bottom-feeders, the Mets, D-Backs, Reds, and Padres, at the beginning of September.
6. Chicago White Sox
Nobody can accuse Kenny Williams of being trigger shy. He dealt his two best pitching prospects, both major-league ready, for a guy on the disabled list who may not be ready to pitch until September. What Kenny knows, however, is that after this weekend's series with the Yankees and then another home series against the Angels, the Sox get to face Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, Kansas City, and Baltimore. If they can't keep pace through that stretch, they don't stand a chance regardless of the Peavy's health. What he needs is for Peavy to be ready to pitch when they hit a stretch of fifteen straight against the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, and Cubs. The Sox are a "lite" version of the 2005 team which won the World Series. They've got consistent starting pitching, strong defense, and several guys who can hit the long ball. Much will depend, however, on health. Not only Peavy, but also Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, who are the only youthful energizers in the Chicago lineup.
7. Minnesota Twins
By sweeping the White Sox earlier this week, the Twins moved themselves into a tie for second place. This is not a typical Twins team. They've only got two starting pitchers with ERAs under 4.00 (Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak). But, what they do have is four hitters with 17 or more homers and 50+ RBI. The middle of the Twins order - Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Cuddyer - is becoming one of the more imposing in the American League, and all those players, as well as leadoff man Denard Span, are homegrown. Unfortunately, their other homegrown quartet, pitchers Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker, expected to be one of the best young rotations in the league this season, has been truly putrid. Those four have combined for a 30-25 record with a 4.72 ERA. Slowey is now out for the season and Liriano may soon follow him. Baker is showing signs of life, allowing only four earned runs in his last three starts, but if the Twins can't bolster their rotation somehow, the only interesting race in September will be Joe Mauer fighting Ichiro for his third batting title.
8. Florida Marlins
The Marlins won the World Series in 1997. They won it again in 2003. So, they're on the six-year plan, right? So...
If they're going to win again in 2009, they'll need to have a good second half. Which may be possible, as they've won eight of their last ten, including four of six against the Dodgers and Braves. In the next three weeks they'll need to do similarly well against the Cubs, Phillies, Rockies, and Astros. If the Marlins are still hanging around at that point, I'll start to be afraid. Until then, they look to me like pretenders.
9. Milwaukee Brewers
I will say this much: I don't want any part of Milwaukee if I'm another NL manager. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are probably the most intimidating duo in baseball, combining already for 46 HR and 159 RBI. They can put a game almost out of reach by the third inning. The rest of the team, however, leaves much to be desired. Corey Hart and J. J. Hardy have been disappointments after breaking out in 2008. Manny Parra (5-8, 6.50) has not lived up to his potential either. Yovani Gallardo (10-7, 3.13) has been great, but the rest of Brewers starters have a 24-30 record. There just isn't enough pitching for the organization to make their second consecutive appearance in October.
10. Atlanta Braves
You can't say they didn't try. After their first losing season in almost two decades, the Braves management went out this offseason and acquired Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Jairr Jurrjens. That trio has combined for 27-21 record and a 3.29 ERA. They also signed Kensin Kawakami, who's been respectable at 5-8, 4.37. When they couldn't find a veteran to take over the #5 spot, they turned to rookie Tommy Hanson, who's been exceptional (5-1, 3.25). Then, when the team proved to be offensively challenged, they added Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, and Ryan Church. None of them are huge names, but all are improvements over the players they replaced. This rotation would be a nightmare in October, but I don't think they're going to get there. This team just doesn't appear to have enough offense, especially when Chipper Jones takes his obligatory trips to the D.L. Chipper leads the team with only 13 HR. They don't have anybody on pace for 100 RBI.
11. Houston Astros
The Astros are a mirage. One which will be forgotten by the end of next week. They've already lost six of their last seven. Their next eighteen games come against other NL contenders. Their rotation includes Mike Hampton (6-8, 5.36 ERA), Brian Moehler (7-6, 4.99), and, until recently, Russ Ortiz (3-6, 5.57). Their current lineup includes Chris Coste (700 OPS), Ivan Rodriguez (679 OPS), Kaz Matsui (656 OPS), and Geoff Blum (714 OPS). Miguel Tejada is quietly having an excellent season, much to the surprise of many after his rough offseason, but most of the rest of Houston's success is smoke and mirrors.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
At least 7 teams with regrets...
Toronto's General Manager, J. P. Riccardi, has already come under fire, at home and in the national media, for his Roy Halladay publicity tour. Halladay "rumors" dominated the headlines for most of July, but the Blue Jays failed to find a trading partner in the end. It remains to be seen whether Riccardi will wish he had accepted the reported offer from the Phillies which included either J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor. If Toronto ends up trading Halladay this offseason for a package that doesn't include two players the equal of what Philadelphia had on the table, Riccardi will look like a bit of a schmuck, overplaying his hand just as the Twins did a couple years ago with Johan Santana.
However, regardless of where Halladay is pitching next spring, there will be at least seven general managers spending the winter asking themselves "What if...?" One team will take home a World Series trophy and that lucky GM will tell his fan base, "See, we really didn't need Roy Halladay?" But whether he admits it or not, even he will have images of the Doc's gravity-defying repertoire flitting through his mind's eye right up to the final out of the season. And the seven playoff competitors who fall short...well, they'll be having trade deadline nightmares for years to come, particularly when several of the vaunted prospects who they refused to consider parting with never reach their potential, as is inevitably the case with the majority of top prospects.
I'm going to assume that Riccardi was especially reluctant to turn Doc over to another American League team (particularly the Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees), where he could make a triumphant return to Toronto half-a-dozen times in the coming two seasons, so I'll focus my comments on National League contenders.
If the reigning champions, the Phillies, don't win the World Series again this year or next, they will probably be the team kicking themselves the hardest, because if they had been willing to part with any three of their top four prospects, they probably could've guaranteed themselves a dynasty. However, by adding Cliff Lee, they may have found a way have their dynasty and their "future stars" too. Lee is somewhere between 80% and 90% of the pitcher Halladay is, but he cost not a single of Philadelphia prized prospects. The distressing question for Phillies fans is whether having a rotation full of left-handers (Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Moyer) could haunt them in the playoffs when they come up against righty-heavy lineups like Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Chicago. Joe Blanton is the only right-handed pitcher in the Phillies rotation, although they do have some kid named Pedro rehabbing for an August return.
The Dodgers put away the AL West sometime in May, so they weren't pressed to make a splash at the deadline. But one has to wonder whether this team can succeed in October when their top two starters are 21- and 25-years-old. Both Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are on pace to pitch WAY more innings than they ever have before. Billingsley is already showing some wear and tear, having allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts. The Dodgers do have a veteran in Randy Wolf, who has pitched much better than his record indicates (5-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 99 K, 134 IP) and they have Hiroki Kuroda recently returned from the D.L. Kuroda hasn't been great so far, but he did have a 1.46 ERA in two postseason starts in 2008. Roy Halladay would've looked really good in Dodger Blue, but the fact is, the Dodgers don't have the prospects to make an offer equal to that which Philly put on the table, so they would've had to part with productive pieces of their current major-league roster - probably Kershaw, Billingsley, or Matt Kemp - which may have created as many problems as Halladay solved.
St. Louis may be the most improved team this trade season. The additions of Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo (as well as the resurgence of Ryan Ludwick) filled out the lineup around King Albert and gave Tony LaRussa the depth off the bench which he so covets. The rotation for St. Louis has been very good (3.60 ERA, 2nd to San Francisco in the NL), so the Cardinals certainly addressed their more pressing problem. They also made it readily apparent that they planned to "go for it" this season. They unloaded their top two pitching prospects (Chris Perez and Jess Todd) to get DeRosa and their top hitting prospect to get Holliday, essentially decimating the farm system. Nonetheless, they probably could've cobbled together a package including Colby Rasmus and Daryl Jones which might've been enough the nab Halladay as well. If you're going to "go for it," then sell the whole damn store! The 1-2 combo of Doc and Chris Carpenter would've given them the formula for playoff domination.
Of all the contending teams who were relatively quiet at the deadline, the Cubs are somehow the most perplexing and it probably has more to do with their impending sale than any apathy on Jim Hendry's part. The Cubs have no other reason to be conservative. They are a veteran team trying to redeeem themselves after two straight early exits from the postseason. Much of their core is either declining or on the verge of free agency, and they don't look like they have much future beyond Lou Pinella's contract (which runs through 2010). They probably could've made a run at Halladay by giving up some combination of Jake Fox, Randy Wells, Josh Vitters, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ceda, and Micah Hoffpauir. However, Chicago was one of the few contending teams that didn't even get mentioned in the daily Halladay updates, suggesting that Hendry's hands were truly tied.
However, regardless of where Halladay is pitching next spring, there will be at least seven general managers spending the winter asking themselves "What if...?" One team will take home a World Series trophy and that lucky GM will tell his fan base, "See, we really didn't need Roy Halladay?" But whether he admits it or not, even he will have images of the Doc's gravity-defying repertoire flitting through his mind's eye right up to the final out of the season. And the seven playoff competitors who fall short...well, they'll be having trade deadline nightmares for years to come, particularly when several of the vaunted prospects who they refused to consider parting with never reach their potential, as is inevitably the case with the majority of top prospects.
I'm going to assume that Riccardi was especially reluctant to turn Doc over to another American League team (particularly the Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees), where he could make a triumphant return to Toronto half-a-dozen times in the coming two seasons, so I'll focus my comments on National League contenders.
If the reigning champions, the Phillies, don't win the World Series again this year or next, they will probably be the team kicking themselves the hardest, because if they had been willing to part with any three of their top four prospects, they probably could've guaranteed themselves a dynasty. However, by adding Cliff Lee, they may have found a way have their dynasty and their "future stars" too. Lee is somewhere between 80% and 90% of the pitcher Halladay is, but he cost not a single of Philadelphia prized prospects. The distressing question for Phillies fans is whether having a rotation full of left-handers (Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Moyer) could haunt them in the playoffs when they come up against righty-heavy lineups like Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Chicago. Joe Blanton is the only right-handed pitcher in the Phillies rotation, although they do have some kid named Pedro rehabbing for an August return.
The Dodgers put away the AL West sometime in May, so they weren't pressed to make a splash at the deadline. But one has to wonder whether this team can succeed in October when their top two starters are 21- and 25-years-old. Both Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are on pace to pitch WAY more innings than they ever have before. Billingsley is already showing some wear and tear, having allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts. The Dodgers do have a veteran in Randy Wolf, who has pitched much better than his record indicates (5-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 99 K, 134 IP) and they have Hiroki Kuroda recently returned from the D.L. Kuroda hasn't been great so far, but he did have a 1.46 ERA in two postseason starts in 2008. Roy Halladay would've looked really good in Dodger Blue, but the fact is, the Dodgers don't have the prospects to make an offer equal to that which Philly put on the table, so they would've had to part with productive pieces of their current major-league roster - probably Kershaw, Billingsley, or Matt Kemp - which may have created as many problems as Halladay solved.
St. Louis may be the most improved team this trade season. The additions of Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo (as well as the resurgence of Ryan Ludwick) filled out the lineup around King Albert and gave Tony LaRussa the depth off the bench which he so covets. The rotation for St. Louis has been very good (3.60 ERA, 2nd to San Francisco in the NL), so the Cardinals certainly addressed their more pressing problem. They also made it readily apparent that they planned to "go for it" this season. They unloaded their top two pitching prospects (Chris Perez and Jess Todd) to get DeRosa and their top hitting prospect to get Holliday, essentially decimating the farm system. Nonetheless, they probably could've cobbled together a package including Colby Rasmus and Daryl Jones which might've been enough the nab Halladay as well. If you're going to "go for it," then sell the whole damn store! The 1-2 combo of Doc and Chris Carpenter would've given them the formula for playoff domination.
Of all the contending teams who were relatively quiet at the deadline, the Cubs are somehow the most perplexing and it probably has more to do with their impending sale than any apathy on Jim Hendry's part. The Cubs have no other reason to be conservative. They are a veteran team trying to redeeem themselves after two straight early exits from the postseason. Much of their core is either declining or on the verge of free agency, and they don't look like they have much future beyond Lou Pinella's contract (which runs through 2010). They probably could've made a run at Halladay by giving up some combination of Jake Fox, Randy Wells, Josh Vitters, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ceda, and Micah Hoffpauir. However, Chicago was one of the few contending teams that didn't even get mentioned in the daily Halladay updates, suggesting that Hendry's hands were truly tied.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
The End of an Era
Buster Olney makes the argument over at ESPN.com that the Blue Jays "must" trade Roy Halladay now or they risk ending up with a lukewarm package of prospects like the one the Twins got from the Mets for Johan Santana a couple years ago. He reports that the Rogers Centre was full of salivating scouts this afternoon as Halladay dominated an excellent Red Sox lineup and won another duel against the Ace of a divisional rival (this time it was Jon Lester). I had to wonder, as Halladay polished off yet another complete game by eliminating Big Papi, Jason Bay, and Jacoby Ellsbury in order, whether he was saying farewell to Toronto and the team he's made 273 starts for over the last decade. The ovation which last throughout the 9th suggested that loyal Toronto fans sense they might be saying goodbye to the face of the franchise.
The complete game victory has become Hallday's trademark. The 44 he's hurled since 1999 is easily the most by any pitcher during that span. Saturday's masterpiece was vintage Halladay as he managed to defeat one of the most patient teams in baseball using only 105 pitches. He controls his viciously biting arsenal to a degree which is almost unfair (his K/BB rate this season is 113 to 17). Pitches are liable to bite in any direction, on any count, regardless of the hitter he's facing (Ellsbury, who has the 8th lowest strikeout rate in the AL, was utterly fooled by Halladay's last cutter, which started belt-high on the outside edge and dove toward his shoelaces).
It wasn't until today that I became convinced that Doc was actually going to be trade,d not because of Olney's column or any "necessity" from the perspective of the Jays, but because, clearly, Doc is tired of waiting for his chance at a ring. He's always been good, but he's never been better than he is right now, and perhaps never will be. Other than Albert Pujols, one could easily argue that he is the single most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is why it is so difficult to imagine the Blue Jays getting a fair deal. If he were to move to the NL, I would be surprised if Halladay didn't duplicate or even improve upon C. C. Sabathia's run of dominance in the second half of 2008.
So, of course, the question everybody is asking, where will he end up? The Jays will be reluctant to trade Doc where he might haunt them for years to come, in other words, the AL East. The Dodgers might be a nice fit, but all of L.A.'s major-league ready talent is currently contributing to the major-league roster, which means the pieces for a deal probably aren't there. The same is probably true of the White Sox and Tigers. Which leaves...
1.) Philadelphia Phillies
Let's get something straight. Pitchers like Halladay are not intimidated by ballparks. The opposing pitcher, after all, has to deal with the same conditions. What Halladay sees when he looks at the Phillies is not only a proven World Series pedigree, but also the two qualities which he obviously covets. Halladay is at his best when he can relax, work quickly, and pitch to contact. The Phillies have a potent offense, which means he will grow much more accustomed to pitching with a lead, which is obviously when he is most dominant (this afternoon Halladay allowed five of his six baserunners in the first three innings). The Phillies also have terrific defenders around the diamond, including probably the best infield in baseball with Jimmy Rollins (#1 SS according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible), Chase Utley (#1 2B according to Dewan), Pedro Feliz (#2 3B according to Dewarn), and an improved Ryan Howard (besides slimming down, Howard has improved his Ultimate Zone Rating in each of the last three seasons).
The Phillies organizational depth is ranked #12 by Baseball America, which means they have a fair amount of top prospects which Toronto might covet. The prizes are starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (107 K in 108 IP at AAA, but only 4.97 ERA), outfielder Michael Taylor (.333, 15 HR, 18 SB, 977 OPS at AAA), outfielder Dominic Brown (.307, 9 HR, 14 SB, 916 OPS at A), and starting pitcher Kyle Drabek (9-2, 2.83 ERA at A & AA). It will likely take two of them, along with somebody like J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, or Sergio Escalano to lure Halladay away from the Jays.
2.) Milwaukee Brewers
Last year Doug Melvin turned Matt LaPorta into half a season of C. C. Sabathia. This year he could probably turne Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel into a season and a half of Roy Halladay. However, those two players are currently on track to take over everyday positions for the Brewers in 2010. Will Melvin be willing to endure several more years of Bill Hall, Craig Counsel, etc. in the starting lineup in order to bring in an Ace. I argue that he should. Halladay would take the pressure off of Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, as well as make Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush more or less expendable in the postseason. Escobar and Gamel are good prospects, but Doc Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. The Brewers aren't going to be able to keep their core of young players together permanently. It would be good for Milwaukee if they made a serious run now.
3.) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a bit of a darkhorse as far as the rumor mill has been concerned so far, but they make as much sense as anybody. Time is running short for this Cubs team as Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Bradly, and Lilly are all obviously entering the backstretch of their careers. Pinella is only signed through 2010 (same for Lee, Lilly, and Bradley), which means if the Cubs don't bring home a pennant this year or next, they are probably going to have to re-shuffle to deck before they make another serious run. By acquiring Halladay they would lessen the anxiety that accompanies every start by Rich Harden (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Zambrano). It would also allow Sean Marshall to stay in the bullpen (his ERA as a reliever is 1.47, compared to 4.87 as a starter). And, perhaps most importantly, they would keep Halladay away from divisional rivals Milwaukee and St. Louis.
The Cubs farm system isn't exactly deep, but they've got a couple of premier prospects: Josh Vitters (.302, 15 HR, 831 OPS at A) and Jeff Samardzija (5-3, 3.72 at AAA). They also have a nice selection of major-league guys like Jeff Baker, Chad Fox, and Micah Hoffpauir who are still relatively young (and cheap), but have proved they can be good, if not great, at the top level. Jim Hendry might be more prepared than any GM in baseball to lay all his cards on the table in order to find the final piece of the puzzle. The Cubs don't have much to lose at this point.
The complete game victory has become Hallday's trademark. The 44 he's hurled since 1999 is easily the most by any pitcher during that span. Saturday's masterpiece was vintage Halladay as he managed to defeat one of the most patient teams in baseball using only 105 pitches. He controls his viciously biting arsenal to a degree which is almost unfair (his K/BB rate this season is 113 to 17). Pitches are liable to bite in any direction, on any count, regardless of the hitter he's facing (Ellsbury, who has the 8th lowest strikeout rate in the AL, was utterly fooled by Halladay's last cutter, which started belt-high on the outside edge and dove toward his shoelaces).
It wasn't until today that I became convinced that Doc was actually going to be trade,d not because of Olney's column or any "necessity" from the perspective of the Jays, but because, clearly, Doc is tired of waiting for his chance at a ring. He's always been good, but he's never been better than he is right now, and perhaps never will be. Other than Albert Pujols, one could easily argue that he is the single most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is why it is so difficult to imagine the Blue Jays getting a fair deal. If he were to move to the NL, I would be surprised if Halladay didn't duplicate or even improve upon C. C. Sabathia's run of dominance in the second half of 2008.
So, of course, the question everybody is asking, where will he end up? The Jays will be reluctant to trade Doc where he might haunt them for years to come, in other words, the AL East. The Dodgers might be a nice fit, but all of L.A.'s major-league ready talent is currently contributing to the major-league roster, which means the pieces for a deal probably aren't there. The same is probably true of the White Sox and Tigers. Which leaves...
1.) Philadelphia Phillies
Let's get something straight. Pitchers like Halladay are not intimidated by ballparks. The opposing pitcher, after all, has to deal with the same conditions. What Halladay sees when he looks at the Phillies is not only a proven World Series pedigree, but also the two qualities which he obviously covets. Halladay is at his best when he can relax, work quickly, and pitch to contact. The Phillies have a potent offense, which means he will grow much more accustomed to pitching with a lead, which is obviously when he is most dominant (this afternoon Halladay allowed five of his six baserunners in the first three innings). The Phillies also have terrific defenders around the diamond, including probably the best infield in baseball with Jimmy Rollins (#1 SS according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible), Chase Utley (#1 2B according to Dewan), Pedro Feliz (#2 3B according to Dewarn), and an improved Ryan Howard (besides slimming down, Howard has improved his Ultimate Zone Rating in each of the last three seasons).
The Phillies organizational depth is ranked #12 by Baseball America, which means they have a fair amount of top prospects which Toronto might covet. The prizes are starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (107 K in 108 IP at AAA, but only 4.97 ERA), outfielder Michael Taylor (.333, 15 HR, 18 SB, 977 OPS at AAA), outfielder Dominic Brown (.307, 9 HR, 14 SB, 916 OPS at A), and starting pitcher Kyle Drabek (9-2, 2.83 ERA at A & AA). It will likely take two of them, along with somebody like J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, or Sergio Escalano to lure Halladay away from the Jays.
2.) Milwaukee Brewers
Last year Doug Melvin turned Matt LaPorta into half a season of C. C. Sabathia. This year he could probably turne Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel into a season and a half of Roy Halladay. However, those two players are currently on track to take over everyday positions for the Brewers in 2010. Will Melvin be willing to endure several more years of Bill Hall, Craig Counsel, etc. in the starting lineup in order to bring in an Ace. I argue that he should. Halladay would take the pressure off of Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, as well as make Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush more or less expendable in the postseason. Escobar and Gamel are good prospects, but Doc Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. The Brewers aren't going to be able to keep their core of young players together permanently. It would be good for Milwaukee if they made a serious run now.
3.) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a bit of a darkhorse as far as the rumor mill has been concerned so far, but they make as much sense as anybody. Time is running short for this Cubs team as Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Bradly, and Lilly are all obviously entering the backstretch of their careers. Pinella is only signed through 2010 (same for Lee, Lilly, and Bradley), which means if the Cubs don't bring home a pennant this year or next, they are probably going to have to re-shuffle to deck before they make another serious run. By acquiring Halladay they would lessen the anxiety that accompanies every start by Rich Harden (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Zambrano). It would also allow Sean Marshall to stay in the bullpen (his ERA as a reliever is 1.47, compared to 4.87 as a starter). And, perhaps most importantly, they would keep Halladay away from divisional rivals Milwaukee and St. Louis.
The Cubs farm system isn't exactly deep, but they've got a couple of premier prospects: Josh Vitters (.302, 15 HR, 831 OPS at A) and Jeff Samardzija (5-3, 3.72 at AAA). They also have a nice selection of major-league guys like Jeff Baker, Chad Fox, and Micah Hoffpauir who are still relatively young (and cheap), but have proved they can be good, if not great, at the top level. Jim Hendry might be more prepared than any GM in baseball to lay all his cards on the table in order to find the final piece of the puzzle. The Cubs don't have much to lose at this point.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Sunday Night Notes: All-Star Break
Hippeaux's Predictions For the Second Half:
- Ryan Howard will justify his All-Star selection and the inequity of Miguel Cabrera's snubbing will be exacerbated. Miggy's second half in 2008 was pretty explosive (.302, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 951 OPS) and this year he already has a pretty stellar first half to build on (.322, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 923 OPS). He faced tough competition on the A.L. ballot, but let's face it, he deserves to be there as much or more than Carlos Pena and Mark Texeira. Howard's selection prompted widespread accusations of nepotism, which are probably founded, considering it cost guys like Pablo Sandoval and Matt Kemp opportunities, but Charlie Manuel understands that Ryan Howard's game isn't suited to provoke All-Star selections. Every season he invokes the ire of Phillies fans with early season slumps, than reclaims their affections come summertime. These are his career OPS splits by month: 793 in April, 950 in May, 874 in June, 980 in July, 937 in August, and 1150 in September. His post-All-Star Break OPS (1050) is a full 175 points higher than in the first half.
- Roy Halladay isn't going anywhere. I could be wrong. Some contender may get eager enough to put together a package which the Blue Jays can't pass up. But it will have to include at least two premier prospects, and with the premium placed on youth in recent years, I'm not sure teams are prepared to "mortgage the farm" to that extent. I can't imagine J. P. Riccardi would trade the best pitcher in baseball within his division, considering those are the teams he'll be trying to catch in the coming years, so that rules out three of the most obvious buyers. The Brewers have already made pretty clear that they aren't willing to part with their top prospects, guys like Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, in an attempt to recreate their Sabathia trade from 2008. So that leaves the Cardinals, White Sox, and two teams out of Los Angeles. I'm not sure any of them have enough good talent (which isn't already essential to their success) to woo the Jays. Honestly, Halladay is almost too valuable. Their may not be any such thing as a fair trade.
- The Giants will go for it. If Cain's elbow injury is more than just a bruise, this could change. But the Giants rotation is undeniably the best in baseball. The starters are responsible for 38 of the team's 49 wins (despite being near the bottom in run support) and lead MLB in ERA (3.49), K (487), BAA (.236), and CG (8). They're second in WHIP (1.27) to Seattle. Although Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Sandoval give this team a lot to build on, it isn't exactly a group which has time to wait. Randy Johnson, Ben Molina, and Randy Winn are only signed through the end of the season and Barry Zito, Edgar Renteria , and Aaron Rowand aren't exactly on the upside of their career tracks. The Giants have extraordinary pitching depth, with minor leaguers like Ryan Sadowski (recently promoted), Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Pucetes, Henry Sosa, and Tim Alderson looking very near to major-league ready, but other than Buster Posey and Angel Villalone, both of whom are probably still at least a year away, the Giants position player prospects are pretty pathetic. In the last ten year the Giants have only groomed one position player who became a major-league regular (Pedro Feliz). Sandoval is going to be the next and maybe Travis Ishikawa will join him, but guys like Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholz, and Kevin Frandson look like busts. If the Giants want to go for the NL Wild Card this year, they are going to need to acquire a bat. Most of the early rumors have surrounded Matt Holiday and I'd bet Billy Beane would be thrilled to get one of the pitchers mentioned above, with a few well-chosen B-level guys thrown in. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Giants seriously considered Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, Alex Rios, and Freddy Sanchez, among others.
- The '09 Rays are not the '08 Rockies. Tampa Bay's +76 run differential (3rd in MLB) says a great deal about how good they are, despite being in third place in their division. They begin the second-half with a ten-game road trip against Kansas City, Chicago, and Toronto, against whom they will no doubt be favored, despite the fact that they are only 18-26 on the road so far. A strong start to the second half may be critical if they are going to surpass either the Yanks or the Red Sox (or both). (An interesting note: all three AL East contenders have great home records thusfar and the Yankees have the most home games remaining in the second half, 39 compared to 36 for both Boston and Tampa.) What bodes well for the Rays, in my opinion, is that Scott Kazmir appears to be close to becoming his dominant self again (despite a poor outing on Thursday), David Price recently outdueled Roy Halladay for his best start since being promoted, and James Shields' monthly ERA splits look like this: 3.74, 3.35, 3.15, 3.14. If the rotation (currently a 4.56 ERA) comes around, the Rays become the American League's best team...again.
- Prince Albert is "crowned" King Pujols. There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. Pujols will have to hold off Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Hanley Ramirez, but he's very much positioned to do the near unthinkable. He's ten homers up on Howard (who I guarantee will pass Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds by the end of July), nine RBI up on Fielder, and seventeen points back of Ramirez (who has spent much of the last two weeks nursing an injury). It would appear that average will be the greatest test, but while Pujols .332 is right in line with his career (.335), Ramirez is currently a dozen points above his best full season, 25 over his career, and nursing a hip flexor (see A-Rod, Mike Lowell), and Pujols nearest contention besides him is a rookie, Pablo Sandoval, and a Mets' outfielder, Carlos Beltran, who might be out for much of the rest of the season.
- Expect a regression to the mean. In other words, just as David Ortiz and Ricky Nolasco were not as "done" as many were prepared to declare them, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, and Magglio Ordonez are not as bad as they have thusfar demonstrated, nor are Ben Zobrist, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds likely to be as good as they have looked before the break. We all know, track records don't lie. Teamwise, that's probably good news for the Rays, Cubs, and Phillies, maybe not so good for the Marlins, Brewers, and Rangers.
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