Offseason Prospectus #10: The Seattle Mariners

I was listening to the Baseball Today coverage of the Winter Meetings this week. On Tuesday, Peter Pascarelli reported something which surprised me, bur probably shouldn't have. Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik has told all player representatives that he wants to be "in on" all negotiations. In other words, he wants to be given the opportunity to bid on every player, even if that player isn't an obvious match with the Mariners. This is great news for Seattle's fans, suggesting that Zduriencik has both the financial resources and the creativity to turn the Mariners from a pleasant surprise (which their 85-win '09 campaign certainly was) to a true contender.

He began by poaching the sparkplug from the division rival Angels. The Mariners signed Chone Figgins to a four-year, $36 Million contract. To me, that looks like a steal. Figgins is 32-years-old and coming off of arguably the best season of his career. He gets on bases, reeks havoc on the basepaths, battles for every at-bat, and is an excellent defender at third base. He also possesses a defensive versatility which is helpful for Zduriencik and his "open door policy." Figgins could spend some time at second base and in the outfield before this contract is up. I personally expected Figgins would get a deal for at least $10-12 Million per season, so the fact the Zduriencik brought him in for 2/3 that cost this early in the Hot Stove season is especially impressive. Now, the question is, when you have arguably the two best leadoff hitters in the game, who bats first?

Free Agents:

Miguel Batista (39) RHRP
Erik Bedard (31) LHSP
Adrian Beltre (31) 3B
Russell Branyan (34) 1B
Endy Chavez (32) OF
Mike Sweeney (36) DH

Arbitration-Eligible:

David Aardsma (28) RHCL
Franklin Gutierrez (27) CF
Felix Hernandez (24) RHSP
Ryan Langerhans (30) OF
Mark Lowe (27) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Mike Carp (24) 1B
Doug Fister (26) RHSP
Bryan Lahair (27) OF
Adam Moore (26) C
Michael Saunders (23) OF
Matt Tuiasosopo (24) 3B

The arrival of Figgins is, I hope, an indication that the Mariners want Ichiro to move into the middle of the order. Seattle hasn't had a consistent .300 hitter, other than Ichiro, since Edgar Martinez retired. (Martinez will be eligible for the Hall of Fame this coming year.) As great as Ichiro is leading off an inning (.331 lifetime average), he's even better with runners in scoring position (.340). His presence in the three hole will help take the pressure off Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez, and Ken Griffey Jr., none of which are legitimate middle-of-the-order presences at this stage of their careers.

The Mariners are still without a cleanup hitter. Power is a problem in Seattle, and not just because Safeco is a relatively spacious park. The Mariners had only two guys with 20+ HR in '09 and the team leader in that category, Russell Branyan, is a free agent. Seattle finished 13th in the AL in slugging percentage in '09. Only Oakland was worse. Obviously, in the post-"Juiced Ball" era teams can win without a gaggle of sluggers, but it still helps to have at least one.

The Mariners have to decide whether they believe that Mike Carp or Michael Saunders can develop into that kind of threat very quickly. Both are high upside hitters, but both are very young. While blocking either of them with a blockbuster signing like Jason Bay (rumors have abounded about Seattle's interest) might be a mistake, a stopgap measure who can join Saunders, Carp, and Griffey in the 1B/DH/LF mix could be in the team's best interest. Such players are bountifully available this offseason. Good fits could include Hideki Matsui, Aubrey Huff, Hank Blalock, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, or even a resigning of Branyan.

The Mariners could also be in the market for a starting pitcher. King Felix is clearly the Ace and the Mariners have a nice selection of good young arms, but Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith have had a hard time staying healthy, Doug Fister and Jason Vargas are still adapting to pitching in the bigs, and Ian Snell was very inconsistent during his tenure in Pittsburgh. Last year's rotation benefitted a great deal from the stabilizing veteran presence of Jarrod Washburn. An innings-eater like Washburn, Jon Garland, or Doug Davis could be very useful over the short term, but Zduriencik will vigilantly avoid signing such a pitcher for anything more than two years. The inflated contracts of Washburn (4 yrs./$37.5 Mil.) and Carlos Silva (4 yrs./$48 Mil.) contributed a great deal to the undoing of his predecessor, Bill Bavasi.

Baseball fans in Seattle can look forward to 2010. During the late '90s and early '00s the Mariners were among the game's most successful franchises. Zduriencik and Wakamatsu appear to have their team headed back in that direction. The farm system is solid. Silva's is the only ugly contract still on the books. Zduriencik has made some excellent trades (for Franklin Gutierrez, Ian Snell, David Aardsma, Daniel Cortes) and very cagey short-term investments (Russell Branyan, Jack Wilson, Mike Sweeney, Griffey) during his first year as GM. And Wakamatsu got the most out of a team with little depth and limited offensive potential.

One can't criticize the commitment of Seattle's ownership. They've been willing to spend, averaging almost $108 Million in payroll over the last three seasons. So far the Mariners have only $56 Million in contractual obligations for 2010, so there is money in the coffers, and, more importantly, there are wise men deciding how to spend it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Zduriencik made only a couple small plays over the next months and set aside assets so he could resign Felix Hernandez and pursue a couple of big-name free agents in 2011.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Lineup (Revised 2/6):

3B Chone Figgins (S)
CF Franklin Gutierrez (R)
RF Ichiro Suzuki (L)

DH Milton Bradley (S)
2B Jose Lopez (R)

LF Ken Griffey Jr. (L)
1B Casey Kotchman (L)
SS Jack Wilson (R)
C Rob Johnson (R)

SP Felix Hernandez (R)

SP Cliff Lee (L)
SP Ryan Rowland-Smith (L)
SP Ian Snell (R)
SP Doug Fister (R)

CL David Aardsma (R)
SU Mark Lowe (R)
SU Sean White (R)
LOOGY Jason Vargas (L)
MR Chad Cordero (R)
SWING Yusmeiro Petit (R)
MOP Brandon League (R)

C Josh Bard (R)
1B Ryan Garko (R)

OF Michael Saunders (L)
OF Eric Byrnes (R)

Detroit Trades Entire Motown Catalogue; Receives Rights to Oak Ridge Boys, Jennifer Love Hewitt

I'll admit from the start, I'm having a hard time looking at this trade objectively. For the second year in a row, there is some serious coal in my stocking. Last December, C. C. Sabathia, the big, black Buddha known for his spine-shattering clubhouse embraces as much as his incredible pitching repertoire, signed a monster contract to become just another Storm Trooper on the flight deck of the Deathstar. Coming off a performance in Milwaukee that was so soulful (and so dominant) that it conjured up thoughts of "Pops" Stargell and the late '70s Pirates, it was very painful to see "Command & Control" Sabathia grinning while holding up XXL pinstripes.

Now, exactly a year later, another handsome, charismatic brother is headed to the Bronx. Since entering the majors, Curtis Granderson has been one of my favorite players. He inspires immense joy every time he chases a liner in the gap, turns a double into a triple, smacks a ankle-high fastball into the cheap seats, or melts a sideline reporter's heart with his radiant smile. But, as with Sabathia, my enjoyment of his exploits will be seriously diminished by the fact that they will henceforth assist in spreading evil across the land. I can't help but wonder whether Brian Cashman's main objective every holiday season is pissing in my egg nog.

That said, this is a very interesting trade for all the teams involved:

Detroit

IN: RHSP Max Scherzer (25), CF Austin Jackson (23), LHRP Daniel Schlereth (24), LHRP Phil Coke (27)

OUT: CF Curtis Granderson (29), RHSP Edwin Jackson (26)

Unfortunately, the guiding factor in this trade, from the Tigers perspective, is monetary. They signed Granderson to a back-loaded contract just prior to the '08 season. The last two years he cost them only $4.5 Million. Over the next four seasons he'll cost $36.75 Million. For the Yankees, that probably looks like a relative steal. For the Tigers, who desperately need payroll flexibility, Granderson's was a contract they could actually move. Although it is a self-inflicted wound, it's hard not to feel sorry for Tigers fans who are going to spend next year watching a whole flock of albatrosses. Here are some of the commitments Detroit has in 2010.

Jeremy Bonderman [$12.5 M]

Dontrelle Willis [$12 M]

Nate Robertson [$10 M]

Carlos Guillen [$13]

Magglio Ordonez [$18 M]

Brandon Inge [$6.6 M]

That's more than $70 Million going to half a dozen players, all of whom have shown dramatic decreases in production over the last two years and present serious injury risks. There's a strong possibility half of these players hardly see the field in '10. It's hard to fault Dave Dombrowski for trying to keep together and build from the core of players who helped the Tigers go to a World Series in 2006. But right now, that seems like a long time ago.

In exchange for Granderson and Jackson (who will probably earn at least $5 Million in arbitration), the Tigers get four players who will make the league minimum for at least another year, in some cases more. Every one of these players should fit into Detroit's immediate plans. Max Scherzer is one of the most promising power pitchers in the game. He struck out 174 batter in 170 innings in '09 and posted a very respectable 4.12 ERA for Arizona. His main problem was the long ball (20 HR), which may have been exacerbated by the intimate confines of his home ballpark. Detroit is a much better place for flyball pitchers. Combined with Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, the Tiger have the makings of an excellent rotation.

Austin Jackson is never going to have the extra-base power that Granderson offers, but other aspects of his game may be comparable. He hit .300 at AAA in '09 and features very good speed and defense. He isn't going to intimidate the way Granderson could when he was streaking, but Jackson could turn into a competent leadoff hitter.

Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are solid first steps towards fixing the bullpen depth issues which were a major Achilles Heel for the Tigers last season. With the two most talented relievers from '09, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, hitting the free agent market, Detroit still has a long way to go, but Coke and Schlereth are very suitable for the middle innings and could develop into more. Schlereth had a miserly 1.13 ERA in the minors and struck out a whopping 13.6 batters per nine innings.

Yankees

IN: C. Granderson

OUT: A. Jackson, P. Coke, RHSP Ian Kennedy (25)

Although I obviously appreciate the quality of Granderson as much as anybody, this looks like a very strange decision to me from New York's perspective. First and foremost, the only thing the Yankees really had an excess of this offseason were promising young centerfielders. The one thing that seemed certain about the Yankees 2010 outfield, was that it would feature at least one of the trio of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Austin Jackson. All three of these youngsters, like Granderson, are excellent defenders, so their value is tied somewhat to their position. Cabrera and Gardner, though respectable hitters, don't offer the kind of power one would expect from Yankee corner outfielders.

My greatest fear is that this "blockbuster" is just Cashman's prequel to a deal that will net the Yankees Roy Halladay (or another big-name starting pitcher). Such a deal would undoubtedly feature Gardner, Cabrera, or both. Cabrera is younger, more experienced, has more upside, and a more complete skillset than Gardner, who is pretty much a pure slap-hitter, so Melky should be the more coveted player. However, Cabrera's switch-hitting and particularly his ability to hit left-handed pitching make him a more natural fit in the Yankees outfield/DH rotation. Granderson stuggles mightily against lefties (484 OPS in '09), so it would be nice for the Yanks to have a solid right-handed centerfielder available.

D-Backs

IN: E. Jackson, I. Kennedy

OUT: M. Scherzer, D. Schlereth

This move will draw a fair amount of criticism from scouts and fans who believe Scherzer is on the verge of becoming an legitimate Ace. The D-Backs front office, however, is clearly concerned with the violence of his delivery, and are opting instead for the reliability of Jackson, who has made 30+ starts in every season since he became a full-time starter.

The overlooked piece in the analysis of this deal is Ian Kennedy. It is easy to forget that only a couple years ago the Yankees saw Kennedy as the equal, perhaps even the better, of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, a centerpiece of their staff for years to come. Although it didn't work out that way in '08, when he posted an 8.17 ERA in nine starts and ended up having Tommy John surgery, Kennedy's potential, when healthy, remains as high as anybody involved in this trade. The Yankees have chosen to give up on him. For a team that has continually struggled to develop and maintain starting pitchers over the last decade, that may prove to be very unwise. During his minor league career, Kennedy made 43 starts and posted a miniscule 1.95 ERA with 273 K in 249 IP and a 0.99 WHIP. If Kennedy retains all his skills and Jackson merely maintains his status quo, Arizona could be the big winner in this deal.

Offseason Prospectus #9: The Toronto Blue Jays

It wasn't that long ago that Blue Jays fans had a lot to get excited about. In the Spring of 2007 they were coming off a year in which they had finally unsettled the balance of power in the AL East. Since the Jays last playoff appearance, a World Series win in 1993, the Yankees and Red Sox have had a stranglehold on their division. But in early 2007, it looked like things were about to change. J. P. Riccardi, the Sandy Alderson disciple and Billy Beane bosom-buddy of Moneyball fame, had assembled a team that was making Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein uncomfortable.

For starters, there were Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, two Gold Glove caliber outfielders (Wells has won the award three times) in their mid-twenties who could hit a little as well. In 2006, Wells had finished fourth in the AL in extra-base hits, and Rios wasn't that far back, tied with Derek Jeter at 35th. Wells had already agreed to a fat extension which would assure he was a Blue Jay until 2014. Riccardi would negotiate a similar (though not quite as large) contract with Rios a year later.

The Jays offense did not begin and end with their young outfielders. They also had veteran slugger Troy Glaus, coming of a 38 HR, 104 RBI campaign. They had sweet-swinging first-baseman Lyle Overbay, who hit .312 in '06 and finished 4th in the AL in doubles. And, Riccardi had just signed the Big Hurt, Frank Thomas, coming of a resurgent MVP-caliber season with the Athletics. With young talents like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind also on the club, the '07 Jays had the makings of a team that could light up even the best pitching staffs in the league.

They also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league, led by the fearsome tandem of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. The back-end of the rotation was buoyed by a stable of impressive prospects, including Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, Gustavo Chacin, and Casey Janssen, all 25 and younger. And, they had a solid closer, B. J. Ryan, coming of a season in which he had saved 38 games and maintained a ridiculous 1.37 ERA.

For Blue Jays fans it must seem like such a long time ago. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, who looked like such "sure things," have become two of the game's worst contractual albatrosses, having suffered terrifyingly steep drops in production of the last three years. As has Lyle Overbay. Every one of the five pitching prospects listed above suffered a major arm injury in '07, '08, or '09. Same goes for B. J. Ryan, who had to be released last spring. Frank Thomas had a solid, but injury-plagued '07. So did Glaus, who was dealt to the Cardinals after the season. And, as any Toronto fan will tell you, the list goes on and on.

Now, the Riccardi era is over. The Blue Jays gave Alex Rios away, and probably would've done the same with Vernon Wells, had anybody been willing to take him. Hill and Lind, who looked a couple of years ago like great complementary pieces, are now the core of the Toronto lineup. New GM, Alex Anthopoulos, must decide whether to trade Halladay, one of the most popular (and best) players in the history of the franchise, or risk seeing him walk away after the 2010 season. It's a ballclub in shambles, and the road ahead doesn't look particularly bright.

Free Agents:

Rod Barajas (34) C

Kevin Millar (38) 1B/DH

Marco Scutaro (34) SS

Arbitration-Eligible:

Jeremy Accardo (28) RHRP

Jose Bautista (29) 3B/LF

Shawn Camp (34) RHRP

Raul Chavez (37) C

Jason Frasor (32) RHRP

Casey Janssen (28) RHRP

Brandon League (27) RHRP

Shawn Marcum (27) RHSP

Dustin McGowan (27) RHSP

Brian Tallet (32) LHSP

ETA 2010?:

J. P. Arencibia (24) C

Brett Cecil (23) LHSP

Brian Dopirak (26) 1B/DH

Brad Mills (25) LHSP

Travis Snider (22) LF/RF

The first line of business for the Jays front office this winter is dealing Roy Halladay. Doc has made it clear that although he loves playing in Toronto, he wants the opportunity to pitch in the postseason while he's still at the top of his game (Halladay will turn 33 in May). It seems hard to imagine the Blue Jays looking like an imminent contender by the end of next season; so, in order to get the most in return for one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball and to prevent the distraction which troubled the Jays for much of 2009 (the probable cause for Riccardi's dismissal), Anthopoulos will almost certainly deal Doc in the next couple months, perhaps as soon as next week's winter meetings.

Several teams will be rumored in the mix, but the Jays eventual partner will undoubtedly be a team with deep pockets and probably a deep farm system as well, making the Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees among the obvious frontrunners. Darkhorses could include the Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Brewers, and Mets, although in each case there are potential issues with coming up with either enough quality prospects to make the deal or enough payroll to sign Halladay long-term.

Most of the rumors which has circulated thusfar, have the Jays coveting young pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, or Trevor Bell. While there may be some truth to that, I expect any deal for Halladay will prioritize position players. The only places where the Blue Jays are committed beyond 2011 are second base (Hill), center field (Wells), right field (Travis Snider), and designated hitter (Lind). J. P. Arencibia's offensive production stalled a bit at AAA, but he'll still get a shot at taking over catching duties this spring. Edwin Encarnacion, who the Jays acquired for Scott Rolen, has two more years before free agency. He never lived up to expectations in Cincinnati, but he's still pretty young (27), so there's a good chance he will benefit from the change of scenery.

Alex Gonzalez and Jose Bautista are nothing more than place-holders and Lyle Overbay's contract expires at the end of 2010, so the most pressing needs for the Jays are long-range solutions at first and short. That's good news for the Red Sox and the Rangers, both of whom have quality and depth in their organizations at first base. There aren't really any franchises with a bevy of five-tool shortstops, so it's likely a question of whether the Cubs, Red Sox, or Mets would be willing to part with players who are currently a big part of their long-term plans.

(If I were making the odds for a Roy Halladay trade, I would say the Boston could put an end to it this weekend if they were willing to offer Lars Anderson, Jed Lowrie, either Buchholz or Bowden, and a low-end prospect at OF or P. That's a lot to put on the table, but having a rotation of Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, and the remaining youngster might be worth it.)

The reason I don't expect Toronto to build a trade around pitching is that one thing J.P. Riccardi did very well was draft pitchers. The Blue Jays have a stockpile of relatively young, high-upside hurlers which is already the envy of most of their peers. What the franchise had trouble doing in recent years was keeping those pitchers healthy. This spring will see the return of Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, and Jesse Litsch. Neither Marcum nor McGowan threw a single pitch in '09. And Litsch managed only two starts. However, in '08 that trio combined to pitch over 400 innings, won 29 games, and had a combined ERA of 3.71. None was older than 26 at that time. If each can bounce back and continue to mature, the Blue Jays could have the makings of a very formidable rotation as soon as 2011.

Also in their stable, they have Brett Cecil, 23, who had an up-and-down rookie campaign, when the injuries mentioned above pressed him into big-league action earlier than the franchise probably would've liked. But, during one five start stretch in July and August, he went 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 26 K in 30 IP. The young lefty has a vicious breaking ball, a lively fastball, and displayed good control in the minors. He is easily the equal of any of the more infamous young fireballers for New York and Boston.

Toronto's pitching corps don't end there. The Jays have a number of mid-twenties starters bouncing around the system. If Roy Halladay is traded, there will likely be at least one more quality pitching prospect in the mix. Not all of these guys will develop into starters who Toronto want in their big-league rotation, but there's a great chance four or five of them will, and the Jays will spend much of 2010 figuring out who that's going to be. Here's my early rankings:

1. Jesse Litsch (25) 13-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 99 K, 176 IP in '08

2. Dustin McGowan (27) 12-10, 4.08, 1.22, 144 K, 170 IP in '07

3. Brett Cecil (23) 7-4, 5.30, 1.65, 69 K, 93 IP in '09

4. Shaun Marcum (28) 9-7, 3.39, 1.16, 123 K, 151 IP in '08

5. Marc Rzepcznski (24) 2-4, 3.67, 1.32, 60 K, 61 IP in '09 / 9-5, 2.66, 1.17, 104 K, 88 IP @ AA/AAA

6. Reidier Gonzalez (24) 4-6, 2.90, 1.15, 67 K, 93 IP @ AA in '09

7. Brad Mills (25) 13-5, 1.95, 1.17, 159 K, 147 IP @ A/AA in '08

8. David Purcey (28) 8-6, 2.69, 1.12, 121 K, 117 IP @ AAA in '08

9. Ricky Romero (25) 13-9, 4.30, 1.52, 141 K, 178 IP in '09

10. Robert Ray (26) 13-9, 3.61, 1.34, 132 K, 167 IP @ A/AA in '08

11. Luis Perez (25) 9-11, 3.55, 1.31, 112 K, 162 IP @ AA in '09

12. Scott Richmond (30) 8-11, 5.52, 1.49, 117 K, 139 IP in '09

Each of these guys, with the exception of Richmond, have flirted with dominance at some stage in their careers thusfar. Given some good luck, the Jays have the makings of an incredible young staff. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to assemble a lineup potent enough to make them competitive with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Sadly, at this point I'd have to say 2012 at the earliest.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

RF Jose Bautista (R)

2B Aaron Hill (R)

DH Adam Lind (L)

CF Vernon Wells (R)

3B Edwin Encarnacion (R)

1B Lyle Overbay (L)

LF Travis Snider (L)

SS Alex Gonzalez (R)

C J. P. Arencibia (R)

SP Jesse Litsch (R)

SP Dustin McGowan (R)

SP Shaun Marcum (R)

SP Brett Cecil (L)

SP Ricky Romero (L)

CL Jason Frasor (R)

SU Scott Downs (L)

SU Shawn Camp (R)

MR Jeremy Accardo (R)

SWING Brandon Morrow (R)

SWING David Purcey (L)

MOP Casey Janssen (R)

C John Buck (R)

IF John McDonald (R)

IF Brian Dopirak (R)

OF Reed Johnson (R) FA

Billy Beane's Latest Swindle

It's days like these which make it hard to be a Cubs fan. Sure, it stings a little when Ryan Dempster gives up a three-run bomb to Manny Ramirez in the NLDS or when Alex Gonzalez boots a routine double-play ball in eight-inning of Game 6 of the NLCS, but it's those moments which make us who we are. Admit it, Cubs fans, the sting of defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, painful though it may be, has buried deep within it the promise of delayed gratification. Cubs fans are masochists, ascetics, and Puritans. We have dedicated ourselves to a glory which is always on the horizon. But when it is finally reached, if it is ever reached, our euphoria will be unprecedented. Yankees fans will never experience joy like that. White Sox and Red Sox fans, sympathetic as they may be, will never experience joy like that. To be a lifelong Cubs fan is to maintain the dream of a heavenly reward on earth.

But, Oh!, there will be suffering and there will be trials, and there will be days like these. In his rookie year, Jake Fox hit eleven homers and drove in 44 runs, unspectacular numbers, except when you consider he started only 62 games and got only 241 plate appearances. Extrapolate his numbers over a full season and he would've been one of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year in the National League. Which should be no surprise. Between AA and AAA in 2008, Fox had 31 HR and 105 RBI. In just 45 games at AAA in '09 he had 17 HR and 53 RBI, maintaining a .409 AVG and a 1336 OPS. This kid can rake!

Unfortunately, in Chicago he was a man without a position. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are entrenched at the corners and Fox isn't well-suited to the outfield. So, what Jim Hendry had this offseason was a player who had proved he was ready and able to be a productive hitter at the major-league level AND who wouldn't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season. This is one of the best bargaining chips a general manager can have: a player who isn't essential to his own plans, but who offers considerable value to many of his competitors. Jake Fox, I had unwisely presumed, would be one of the lynchpins in a trade for serious major-league talent. Sure, he's got defensive issues and he strikes out a lot, but combined with another prospect or two, Fox could've helped the Cubs land Dan Uggla or Curtis Granderson, both of whom currently play for teams which have places for Fox to play (1B/DH) and covet the financial alleviation he would offer.

Instead, for the second year in a row, Jim Hendry essentially gave away the best tradable commodity he had in his arsenal. Last winter it was Mark DeRosa who he handed to the Indians for a couple of minor-league relievers, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub, and a very young starting pitcher, Chris Archer, who, to be fair, pitched fairly well at the A-level in '09 (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 119 K/66 BB, 109 IP). While all three of these pitchers may end up giving the Cubs some quality innings, with Archer having an outside shot at becoming a member of the rotation down the road, DeRosa would've been real handy to have last season when Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker, Aaron Miles, and others were combining to give us 7 HR and a 666 OPS from the second base position. Instead, DeRosa ended up playing for the team the Cubs were chasing down the stretch, as the Indians proved how much he was actually worth on the open market. For two months of Mark DeRosa, St. Louis gave Cleveland their two of their best major-league ready relief-pitching prospects, Chris Perez and Jess Todd.

The Jake Fox deal is even more egregious. The two prospects in the deal, Ronny Moria and Matt Spencer, are nothing more than "organizational depth." Moria is a 23-year-old who hasn't advanced past the low-A level, where he has pitched poorly. Spencer, also 23, has hit decently as high as AA, where he posted an 808 OPS in 409 plate appearances last season. Nonetheless, the high-end of his potential probably makes him at best a fourth outfielder in the majors. He's Micah Hoffpauir...lite.

So, the "impact" piece in the Fox deal is Jeff Gray, another middle reliever, who posted a 3.76 ERA for the A's in 26 innings last season. He doesn't have closer-type stuff and has a pedestrian 3.57 ERA in 163 AAA innings. In other words, what Jim Hendry got for Jake Fox was a single middle reliever who looks a hell of a lot like the abundance of middle relievers, including Stevens and Gaub, who the Cubs already have in the organization!

Meanwhile, in addition to giving up a premier prospect for absolutely nothing that they don't already have in abundance, they will pay approximately half of Aaron Miles contract while he's playing for Oakland. Sure, Miles was unimpressive in '09. Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot offer the same skill-set with more upside for less money, but Miles is nonetheless a proven major-league back-up infielder, whose position flexibility and ability to hit for average (.282 career) give him minimal value. I think it is safe to say he's worth almost as much as Jeff Gray, who isn't much better than a replacement-level reliever. It is very, very possible that when this trade is evaluated a year or two from now, the Cubs will have given Billy Beane the two most valuable players in the deal and $1,000,000. That's adding insult to injury.

Offseason Prospectus #8: The Minnesota Twins

I didn't watch many Twins games until late in the season, but in September and October I discovered that Minnesota had fielded a very compelling, likable team, albeit one that was obviously flawed. That the Twinkies were able to make it as far as they did, despite carrying one of baseball's worst rotations and several automatic outs at the back-end of their lineup, is a testament to Ron Gardenhire's leadership and also to the superior quality of the Twins bullpen and the top half of their lineup. It became clear, especially in the ALDS, that if you looked at only the best half dozen or so players on each team, the Twins were as good as the Yankees, or any other team in league for that matter. It was their lack of depth which proved to be their undoing. Minnesota's front office will be looking to improve at several positions before they open Target Field in 2010, but the Twins, never exactly a free-spending franchise, may be even more cash-strapped this winter as they protect the reserves necessary to sign Joe Mauer to the nine-figure deal which seems an inevitability.

During the last seven seasons the Twins have consistently maintained a payroll between $55 and $65 Million. Mauer's next contract will almost certainly earn him nearly $20 Million a season, as much as a third of Minnesota's limited resources. Add to that the $14 Million a year that Justin Morneau will be making through the 2013 season and it's utterly apparent that unless Minnesota commits to a considerable budget increase, they are going to have no financial flexibility. The signing of Mauer completely eliminates any possibility of retaining guys like Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan, and J. J. Hardy, all of whom will be eligible for free agency in the next two years, and it precludes Minnesota's ability to compete for the top tiers of free agents for the next four or five seasons at least. Can Minnesota bring home division titles, much less championships, when two players eat up 60% of the payroll?

On the other hand, letting Mauer walk is publicity suicide. He is the definition of a franchise player, a guy who not only dominates on the field, but has cultivated a personal connection with the community. Albert Pujols is probably the only analogous baseball player in today's game. In all honesty, probably the best place to look for a situation which resembles Mauer's is Cleveland, where the impending free agency of Lebron James is also haunting a city. Players like these are worth almost any amount of money. You not only build teams around them, but stadiums and brands, the material benefits of which will last even beyond the player's career. Ask the Chicago Bulls, or the Baltimore Orioles.

Free Agents:

Orlando Cabrera (35) SS

Joe Crede (32) 3B

Ron Mahay (39) RHRP

Carl Pavano (34) RHSP

Mike Redmond (39) C

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser (28) RHSP

Jesse Crain (28) RHRP

Matt Guerrier (31) RHRP

J. J. Hardy (27) SS

Brendan Harris (29) SS/3B

Francisco Liriano (26) LHRP

Pat Neshek (29) RHRP

Delmon Young (24) LF

ETA 2010?:

Justin Huber (27) 1B/DH

Jeff Manship (25) RHSP

Jason Pridie (26) CF

Anthony Swarzak (24) RHSP

The Twins ability to duplicate their 2009 success will be predicated primarily upon the health and effectiveness of their starting rotation. Three of Minnesota's best young pitchers - Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, and Pat Neshek - missed all or most of 2009 with injuries. Two others, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, struggled to regain the command and control they had displayed in previous seasons. If you had told Ron Gardenhire in April that Brian Duensing would be a key member of his September rotation, he probably would've assumed the Twins had long since lost any hope of contention. If at least a couple of their young guns can rebound, taking the pressure off Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, than the Twins will have a formidable rotation. Also, prospects Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship have both showed enough promise to offer Twins fans some solace in the event of another rash of injuries.

In addition to Mauer, who doesn't actually qualify for free agency until next year, the Twins have three major contractual decisions this winter. The most pressing is clearly Orlando Cabrera. OC was the sparkplug during the stretch run last fall, after being acquired from the A's, and provided some postseason heroics to boot. Gardenhire publicly applauded his veteran presence. The acquistion of J. J. Hardy, however, leaves Cabrera without a position. The Twins have suggested they would be willing to negotiate with him if he would consider moving to second base, but the former Gold Glove winner has understandable reservations. Cabrera and his agent gained considerable leverage this week when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration, which means negotiations with other teams will not be hampered by his A designation and dramatically reduces the chances of his resigning with Minnesota.

The Twins may pursue alternatives like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, but more likely will choose to either role the dice again on Alexi Casilla, who had a tough year in '09 but is still very young, or hand the position to the defensively spectacular, but offensively-challenged Nick Punto.

One could argue that Minnesota's needs at third base are even more pressing. In 2009, the Twins got next to nothing from the hot corner. Joe Crede's back kept him out of the lineup most of the year and hampered him when he was in it. His replacements - Punto, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris - were considerably worse, none of them achieving an OPS above 675 (league average = 763). There are an abundance of affordable third basemen available. The Twins could gamble on a power bat coming off an injury, like Crede, Aubrey Huff, or Troy Glaus. They could go a more defensively-minded direction with Pedro Feliz. Or for a little more money they could woo a more well-rounded veteran like Adrian Beltre or Miguel Tejada. My guess is that they'll go cheap and risky.

The final and probably least critical decision for Twins management is whether or not to retain Carl Pavano. Pavano made a dozen starts for the Twinks after arriving via a trade with the Indians last summer. He was hardly dominant (4.64 ERA), but he looked like a prototypical innings-eater, going six or more in ten of his twelve starts. On a staff that has tons of talent, but no pitcher older than 28, Pavano could be an inexpensive stabilizing presence.

Recent history has been pretty good to teams opening new ballparks. In 2006 the Cardinal christened the new Busch Stadium with a championship and last year the Yankees did the same in inauguration of their latest launching pad. Twins fans must hope that Target Field resembles these precedents rather than those of Citi Field (2009) and Nationals Park (2008).

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Denard Span (L)

SS J. J. Hardy (R)

C Joe Mauer (L)

1B Justin Morneau (L)

RF Michael Cuddyer (R)

DH Jason Kubel (L)

3B Troy Glaus (R) FA

LF Delmon Young (R)

2B Nick Punto (S)

SP Scott Baker (R)

SP Kevin Slowey (R)

SP Carl Pavano (R)

SP Nick Blackburn (R)

SP Francisco Liriano (L)

CL Joe Nathan (R)

SU Jon Rauch (R)

SU Matt Guerrier (R)

LOOGY Jose Mijares (L)

MR Pat Neshek (R)

MR Jesse Crain (R)

SWING Brian Duensing (L)

C Jose Morales (S)

IF Brendan Harris (R)

IF Matt Tolbert (S)

OF Jason Pridie (L)

Offseason Prospectus #7: The San Francisco Giants

The Giants had not achieved more than 75 wins since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time Barry Bonds won the MVP. So, despite a third-place finish, notching 88 wins has to be considered a major step forward for the franchise, and, whether you like it or not, it probably means both Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy will be around at least until their contracts expire at the end of the 2011 season. I've voiced me skepticism about Sabean in the past (here and here, most notably) and there is no denying he handed out three of the worst contracts in the game (to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria), but San Francisco's drafting and development have improved by leaps and bounds in the last couple seasons, so there is reason to be positive about his administration as well.

The question about the 2010 Giants is whether they can make the small step forward which would probably result in a playoff bid, or whether they will suffer the backslide which so often follows a surprising sixteen-win swing like this one (see '07 Tigers, '08 Rockies, '09 Rays, etc., etc.). Although it would undoubtedly stick in the craw of Giants fans to see their team stand pat again this offseason, when there offensive liabilities are so evident, I will argue that is exactly the right course of action for the long term viability of the franchise. They cannot afford to be saddled by another contractual albatross, and the impact free agents this offseason (Holliday, Bay, Lackey, etc.) have the potential to become exactly that. If Sabean and Peter Magowan are preparing to make another nine-figure investment, it would be better to wait until next winter and commit that money to Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, or Roy Halladay. Or, they could try to get Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval under contract for many years to come. Or, they might consider testing the availability of guys like Crawford, Halladay, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder come June or July. The fact of the matter is, the Giants have several decisions to make before they can even accurately assess their most dire needs.

Free Agents:

Bobby Howry (36) RHRP

Randy Johnson (46) LHSP

Bengie Molina (35) C

Brad Penny (32) RHSP

Juan Uribe (30) IF

Randy Winn (36) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Ryan Garko (29) 1B

Tim Lincecum (26) RHSP

Brandon Medders (30) RHRP

Jonathan Sanchez (27) LHSP

Brian Wilson (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Madison Bumgarner (20) LHSP

Matt Downs (26) 2B/3B/OF

Jesus Guzman (26) 1B/3B

Waldis Joaquin (23) RHRP

Brett Pill (25) 1B

Buster Posey (23) C

Kevin Pucetas (25) RHSP

Ryan Rohlinger (26) 3B

Dan Runzler (25) LHRP

Henry Sosa (24) RHSP

Obviously, the Giants will again lean heavily on their pitching staff, led by Lincecum and Cain. Atlanta and St. Louis also had excellent rotations in 2009, but San Francisco led the NL in strikeouts, WHIP, complete games, opponent's average and OPS. There is no reason to believe the Giants will be any worse in 2010. Barry Zito (32) is the only member of the rotation older than 27 and Jeremy Affeldt (31) is the only pitcher in bullpen over thirty. Moreover, and this is where Sabean deserves a great deal of commendation, there is more homegrown talent on the way. Madison Bumgarner, though only twenty, will almost certainly join the rotation this spring. He has very little to prove in the minors after his most recent campaign:

Bumgarner (A/AA) 12-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 92/34 K/BB, 131 IP

Kevin Pucetas took a step backward at AAA in '09, but he and Henry Sosa are also top prospects who could join the rotation later this season, if necessary. Their presence make Randy Johnson and Brad Penny expendable, although Sabean may disagree. Similarly, the Giants should be able to quickly compensate for the loss of Bobby Howry by promoting Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler, and giving more innings to Sergio Romo and Joe Martinez. Both in the rotation and the bullpen, the Giants staff is not only dominant, but deep as well.

Unfortunately, quite the opposite is true of the everyday lineup. If we took San Francisco's current starting eight down Highway 1 and gave them to Joe Torre and the Dodgers, Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez would be the only guys with starting positions. And, again, unlike the pitching staff, there aren't many reinforcements on the way. The Giants best positions prospects, guys like Angel Villalona, Conor Gillaspie, and Darren Ford, won't be ready for the big leagues until 2012 at the earliest. What they have an abundance of in the high minors are players who look destined for AAAA or limited major-league roles; outfielders like Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, Joe Borchard, Andres Torres, and Fred Lewis; and infielders like Emmanuel Burriss, Kevin Frandsen, Ryan Garko, and Travis Ishikawa.

The same may also be true of Brett Pill, Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Jesus Guzman, rookies who will all fight for at-bats at third, first, and probably in the outfield as well, during Spring Training and the early months of 2010. This is one of the reasons I urge the Giants to be cautious on the free agent market this offseason. While none of these players appear to possess the talent to provide serious protection for Sandoval, a couple of them (the best bets are probably Guzman, Downs, and Eugenio Velez) could develop into legitimate starters. Bochy is going to have a major challenge finding enough opportunities for all his youngsters to show what they are capable of, but until he does so, it will be difficult for the Giants front office to identify their most pressing need. Certainly, they need a power-hitter to plug in behind Sandoval in the middle of lineup, but whether it would be better for that slugger to play first base, third base, or outfield, remains to be seen.

To that effect, San Francisco needs to decide relatively soon whether they are going to continue to use Kung Fu Panda at the hot corner, or give in to the fact that his weight makes him more logically suited for first base. I can understand their reluctance. Sandoval has been passable on defense thusfar (-2.3 UZR) and it is easier to find a free agent slugger at first than at third, but in '09 he hit .320 with a 921 OPS when playing third and .385 with a 1071 OPS in his more limited appearances at first, suggesting that the Panda's production might benefit slightly from an alleviation of defensive anxiety. Clearly, fans pay to see Sandoval hit, so maybe it's best to let him concentrate on that. I expect he will continue to bounce back and forth in '10 as Bochy finds at-bats opposite him for Guzman, Downs, Ishikawa, Frandsen, Garko, etc., but by '11 he should be settled at a permanent position, to which he can give his full attention (as an analogy, Albert Pujols benefitted both offensively and defensively when the Cardinals finally settled him at first base after several seasons of bouncing between first, third, and left field).

Sabean faces another difficult decision this offseason with his backstops. Bengie Molina became one of the most popular players in San Francisco during the last three seasons, and one can argue that he has been a significant part of the pitching staff's success. However, he has also become a serious offensive liability, netting an atrocious .285 OBP (!) in '09. One could argue that he might improve if he were able to hit lower in the order, in less pressure situations, but regardless of batting position, he doesn't have nearly the upside of Buster Posey, the 2008 first-rounder who pounded his way through the minor leagues in just over a year. So, there are, in fact, two catching questions:

1.) Can a 23-year-old, regardless of his reported maturity, handle catching the nastiest pitching staff in the game on a nightly basis?

2.) Can Bengie Molina handle a backup role, or even a 50/50 timeshare, after three seasons of starting 120+ games?

If the Giants decide the answer to the first question is yes, but the answer to the second question is no (and those, I believe, are the right answers), than they will be in the market for a veteran backstop who had adjusted to limited playing time, but who has wisdom to impart to the rookie. Jose Molina would be the obvious choice, but he will likely return to the Bronx and may be reluctant to follow in his brother's footsteps. Other decent options could be Jason Kendall, Miguel Olivo, Gregg Zaun, Brad Ausmus, or Ivan Rodriguez.

Finally, the Giants need to decide what they expect out of Aaron Rowand. He got off to a solid start last season, but faded fast, from July 5th forward he managed only a 594 OPS. The Giants again bounced him around the order, even experimenting, relatively successfully, with using him as a leadoff hitter. Rowand's offensive woes aren't the only problem. His range in center appears to be declining as well. For a team which depends heavily on its outfield defense in the spacious confines of AT&T Park, it may be wise to consider moving Rowand to right field, although as a corner outfielder, his poor hitting becomes even more auspicious.

The Giants should again exhibit many reasons for optimism in 2010, but San Francisco may need to be patient for yet another year before they can anticipate a serious contender.

Here is my projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Aaron Rowand (R)

2B Freddy Sanchez (R)

1B Pablo Sandoval (S)

3B Mark DeRosa (R)

LF Eugenio Velez (S)

C Buster Posey (R)

RF Andres Torres (S)

SS Edgar Renteria (R)

P Tim Lincecum (R)

SP Matt Cain (R)

SP Barry Zito (L)

SP Jonathan Sanchez (L)

SP Madison Bumgarner (L)

CL Brian Wilson (R)

SU Brandon Medders (R)

SU Jeremy Affeldt (L)

MI Sergio Romo (R)

MI Waldis Joaquin (R)

MI Dan Runzler (L)

MU Joe Martinez (R)

C Miguel Olivo (R) FA

IF Matt Downs (R)

IF Juan Uribe (R)

IF Kevin Frandsen (R)

OF Fred Lewis (L)

What are you up to, Kenny Williams?

The Hot Stove seasons has barely gotten off the ground for the vast majority of teams, but White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, has quietly renovated his franchise this November, with a trade and three veteran free agent signings. Based on the content of these acquisitions, however, White Sox fans have to be wondering: what is he up to?

This past week, in the span of 48 hours, Williams signed two players who have combined for 21 Gold Gloves, easily the most of any active duo. However, both Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel are in the twilight of their careers, as demonstrated by the fact that both spent to majority of 2009 on the Rangers bench. They weren't exactly massively productive in their limited capacity, either. Vizquel managed just a 660 OPS in his 195 plate appearances. Jones had a strong showing during the season's first four months (891 OPS, 17 HR), but he really struggled down the stretch (488 OPS, 0 HR in August and September).

The fact which should not be ignored it that the Rangers had a resurgent season in 2009. Vizquel and Jones were a major part of an improved culture in Texas as apparently popular clubhouse presences. Like Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Ken Griffey Jr., they proved that future Hall of Famers (or borderline Hall of Famers, depending on your perspective) bring more to a franchise than just what they do on the field. Omar not only contributed over 400 innings of errorless defense at shortstop, second, and third base, but served as mentor for Elvis Andrus and, to a lesser extent, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler, helping to solidify a previously porous infield. The White Sox, in Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham, have a pair of middle infielders who, like Andrus and Kinsler, have incredible defensive tools, but are still a little rough around the edges. Vizquel will be asked to pass along his considerable wisdom.

Similarly, although Jones acted primarily as a DH in '09, and will probably spend much of his time in that role again in '10, he is one of the greatest defensive outfielders of all time. The White Sox outfield defense has been atrocious the past couple years. Any influence he exerts on Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and whomever the White Sox bring in complete their outfield, could only bring improvement.

It would have appeared, based on the decision to part ways with Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Dewayne Wise, and Jose Contreras, that Williams was committed to making the White Sox younger in 2010. The acquisition of Vizquel (43) and Jones (33), along with the retention of Mark Kotsay (34) and the trading of Chris Getz (26) and Josh Fields (27), pushes defiantly in the other direction. So, what is the upside?

First of all, cost. Even if Jones reaches all the incentives in his contract, he, Kotsay, and Vizquel will not cost Chicago any more than $4.5 Million in 2010. According to FanGraphs, the trio posted about $6.6 Million worth of production in 2009, so this is likely a pretty safe investment. Even safer when you consider that none is signed past next season.

The White Sox have every incentive to go for it in 2010. They have an aging core and 2011 will bring with it a series of free agent decisions which will likely lead to a complete and total overhaul of the club. After next season Paul Konerko, A. J. Pierzynski, Freddy Garcia, and Mark Teahen will become free agents. The following year they will be joined on the open market by Mark Buehrle, Bobby Jenks, and Alexei Ramirez. While in 2009, Chicago still retained eight players who had won rings with them in 2005, by 2012, the White Sox may bear zero resemblance to that hyper-popular team.

By solidifying his bench early in the offseason, Williams allows himself to concentrate exclusively on the White Sox major needs for the remainder of the winter, namely outfield and designated hitter. He knows exactly what kind of flexibility he has on the remainder of the roster and the payroll and won't have to do any desperate maneuvering late in the spring.

By the time the arbitration period ends, the White Sox will probably have about $85 Million committed to 21 or 22 players on their major-league roster. Over the last four seasons they have maintained a payroll of $100-110 Million. They have plenty of options moving up through the system to provide depth on the pitching staff, so if the White Sox ownership, led by Jerry Reinsdorf, is willing to back him, Williams may be able to commit as much as $25 Million to improving the lineup. If that's the case, then the White Sox could still make a serious run at the cream of the free agent crop (Jason Bay makes some sense for them, as would Chone Figgins) or could continue to covet other team's albatrosses, as they did with Jake Peavy and Alex Rios. Williams has plenty of flexibility, because Konerko, Teahen, or Quentin could easily be moved to DH if the White Sox added a better defensive option at first, third, or in left. Williams also has the luxury of considering whether to go after one BIG fish (Bay, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, etc.) or two smaller ones, as Jones and Kotsay could act as a decent DH/1B/OF platoon if they were hitting low in the lineup.

Although Willaims approach thusfar certainly betrays a considerably amount of risk, it also suggests that he has a concerted plan and aims to put a very competitive team on the field in the AL Central. Minnesota is struggling to re-sign Joe Mauer and patchwork its decimated rotation. The Tigers are considering blowing up the expensive, underperforming squad which has broken Detroit's heart in each of the past two seasons. The Indians are probably at least a year away from seeing the fruits of the rebuilding campaign which shipped away C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Victor Martinez. And, Kansas City, well...the Royals are acting like the most mismanaged franchise in baseball, as usual. Which means the White Sox look to me like the team with the best laid plans for taking their division in 2010.

Offseason Prospectus #6: The Chicago Cubs

When the 2009 season began, it seemed like almost a forgone conclusion that the Cubs were going to win another NL Central crown. They had retained every significant player, other than Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood, from their 2008 squad, which paced the NL. They had added Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg, which seemed like more than enough to maintain the status quo. Moreover, the 2008 runner-up, Milwaukee, had lost their top two starting pitchers and the Cubs other top rivals, the Cardinals and Astros, hadn't made a peep all offseason, much to the dismay of their fans. It looked, during last winter, like the NL Central GMs, via inactivity and apathy, had conspired to hand another title to the Cubs. Maybe they recognized, as every Cubs fan should've recognized, that put in the position of overwhelming favorites, the Cubs would do what they have always done in such situations: choke.

In 2008, three Cubs starters - Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster - won fourteen or more games. In 2009, none of them got more than 12 wins. In 2008, the Cubs had five hitters with 20+ HR and 75+ RBI. Only Derrek Lee reached those numbers in 2009. Milton Bradley's OPS dropped by over 200 points. Alfonso Soriano had a batting average (.241) which was the worst in the NL among qualifying hitters, 25 points lower than his previous worst season. Over the previous two seasons, Kevin Gregg had posted a 3.48 ERA for the Marlins. For the Cubs, his ERA climbed all the way to 4.72. Aramis Ramirez played quite well, but missed half the season. Geovany Soto, Rich Harden, and Carlos Zambrano also missed significant time. Only Ryan Dempster made 30+ starts.

Nonetheless, despite disappointments and misfortune, somehow, at the trade deadline, the Cubs were half a game up on the Cardinals. But, while the Cardinals GM, John Mozeliak, acquired Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo, and John Smoltz, to bolster his team for the stretch run, the Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, decided (or was instructed) to stand pat, perhaps assuming that the ship was about to right itself. Quite the opposite turned out to be the case, as August was Chicago's worst month (and St. Louis's best), and by the end of it, the Cubs were 10 games back.

Over the course of this summer, what had been perhaps somewhat unfounded optimism this spring turned into profound, even excessive cynicism. Several Cubs fans and commentators called for the complete explosion of the current team. Fire Jim Hendry. Fire Lou Pinella. Release Bradley. Trade Zambrano. Bench Soriano. Play Jake Fox at second base. We heard it all. Nobody seemed to notice, however, that despite falling painfully short of their third consecutive division title, the Cubs still had a winning season. It was the first time the Cubs put together three straight winning seasons since 1972. So, it's not like we're talking about the Royals here.

Assuming most of the team comes back healthy in 2010 and returns at least to their career norms, the Cubs will once again have one of the more loaded teams in the NL. There is work to be done, certainly, but with the sale of the team finally nearing completion and Pinella entering the last year of his contract (and perhaps the last year of his managing career) the front office has extra incentive to make waves. If the Cubs don't make the 2010 playoffs, Hendry will undoubtedly fall on the axe.

Free Agents:

Kevin Gregg (32) RHRP

Rich Harden (28) RHSP

Reed Johnson (33) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Jeff Baker (29) 2B/3B

Neal Cotts (30) LHRP

Mike Fontenot (30) 2B

Tom Gorzelanny (27) LHSP

Angel Guzman (28) RHRP

Koyie Hill (31) C

Carlos Marmol (27) RHRP

Sean Marshall (27) LHRP

Ryan Theriot (30) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Esmailin Caridad (26) RHSP

Andrew Cashner (23) RHSP

Tyler Colvin (24) OF

Scott Maine (25) LHRP

The Cubs have begun the Hot Stove season with a little housecleaning. Hendry fired their hitting coach and hired Rudy Jaramillo, who is rumored to have had a big part in invigorating many careers in Texas, including Milton Bradley's in 2008. He also quickly resigned left-handed reliever, John Grabow, and dealt right-handed reliever, Aaron Heilman, to Arizona for a couple of middling prospects. At least one of the pieces in the Heilman deal, Scott Maine, is likely to spend a little time in the Cubs bullpen next season.

Next up for Hendry are decisions about Bradley and Rich Harden. Bradley was not only unproductive this past season, but also became something of a sideshow at Wrigley and in the clubhouse, resulting in his suspension for the season's final weeks. Many believe he will be traded for next to nothing this offseason, with the Cubs eating a big portion of his salary. However, the signing of Jaramillo suggests the Cubs might be resistant to the idea of dealing a high-upside player at the absolute nadir of his rocky career. There is nothing about Bradley's history that suggests he can't bounce back and be a valuable commodity in 2010. As a Cubs fan, I'm also sick of Hendry paying big money to corner outfielders who underperform for one season and are then given up on (i.e. Jeremy Burnitz, Jacque Jones, & Kosuke Fukudome). Better to have Bradley fail again in '10 than to pay him to play for another team while the Cubs make an additional $30,000,000 mistake (i. e. Johnny Damon).

Harden is, likewise, a high-risk/high-reward commodity. There isn't a single pitcher on the free agent market this winter (John Lackey included) with the potential for dominance of the type that Harden displayed in the latter stages of 2008 (5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 89 K in 71 IP after joining the Cubs for a dozen starts) and the middle portion of 2009 (3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 60 K in 50 IP during an eight start stretch in July and August). At only 28, it is still very likely that he will put together a healthy campaign at some point which earns him serious Cy Young consideration. His high-end potential drives up his price, but his injury history (only once has he made 30+ starts) means that few teams will be willing to offer him a long-term deal. The Cubs may simply have to outbid everybody else for a one or two year extension.

I am hoping that Hendry chooses to keep both Harden and Bradley, if for no other reason than it will then be easier for him to address the remaining holes on the Cubs roster. If he has to spend time and money looking for another starter and corner outfielder, than the best-case scenario for the offseason is merely piecing together a team which looks as good as the one that managed just 83 wins this season. However, if Hendry retains Harden and Bradley, he should still have opportunity and funds to address at least one of the following positions: centerfield, second base, bullpen.

My personal preference would be for the Cubs to pursue a top-flight defensive centerfielder, either Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp. This would give Chicago a four-man outfield rotation. Kosuke Fukudome would become primarily a platoon player, given his 667 OPS against lefties over the last two seasons, and defensive replacement. Soriano could get days off against especially tough right-handers. Bradley would get frequent opportunities to fight off his nagging leg injuries. Most importantly, Crisp or Cameron would help close the outfield gaps considerably (particularly when Fukodome was also in right), providing a great deal more comfort for the Cubs pitchers.

Mike Fontenot struggled mightily as an everyday player in 2009, so Hendry may be tempted to pursue a free agent second-baseman like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, perhaps even Chone Figgins. Personally, I would be willing to give the Fontenot/Jeff Baker platoon another chance, if it meant applying that free agent money to more pressing needs (i.e. Harden, Crisp). Both Fontenot and Baker are scrappy players, who have shown the capability for giving good at-bats and playing solid, though not spectacular, defense. Perhaps one could step up and take the job permanently. Bounce-back performances from the rest of the lineup would do a great deal to take the pressure off them and I think we could expect at least a 725 OPS out of the #8 spot. That would be acceptable.

Many will argue that the bullpen needs work. It was conspicuously bad for key stretches of the '09 season, especially during Gregg's meltdown right around the All-Star Break, but their overall ERA (4.11) was almost exactly what it was in '08 (4.10) and things stabilized considerably after Marmol took over closing and Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, and John Grabow assumed the primary set-up roles. Relievers are, by nature, risky. I would rather take my chances with the relatively inexpensive ones the Cubs have in the system than attempt to bring in somebody like Brandon Lyon, who would cost around $5 Million and could easily turn into the second-coming Kevin Gregg (as recently as 2008, Lyon posted a 4.70 ERA as the closer for Arizona).

Finally, as I said, Hendry has every reason to play for this season and this season only. Pinella in entering his swan song. New ownership will be breathing down everybody's neck. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez (player option), and Ted Lilly could all be free agents a year from now. I expect Chicago to be aggressive this offseason, both on free agency and trades. Hendry has some expendable pieces from which to construct a major deal. In Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir, he possesses players with major-league power, but they are 1B/DH types, for whom there is no room in the Cubs lineup. There are also a number of pitchers and position players in the minor leagues which other teams would covet (Starlin Castro is the only one who's off-limits, I'm guessing). The Cubs probably don't have enough to acquire Roy Halladay or Adrian Gonzalez, but that's not what they need either. They could go after somebody like Curtis Granderson or Dan Uggla. Hendry has never been reluctant to barter for big-name players. His trades for Kenny Lofton, Ramirez, and Harden keyed pennant runs. But, he also gambled less successfully on Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre. The worst thing Hendry could do, for himself and for the franchise, is become trigger-shy now. The Cubs remain positioned to make that long-awaited run deep into the playoffs. The same probably won't be true a year from now. Roll the dice. Mortgage the farm. (Insert your favorite non risk-adverse cliche here)

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/31):

SS Ryan Theriot (R)

RF Kosuke Fukudome (L)

1B Derrek Lee (R)

3B Aramis Ramirez (R)

LF Alfonso Soriano (R)

CF Marlon Byrd (R)

C Geovany Soto (R)

2B Mike Fontenot (L)

SP Carlos Zambrano (R)

SP Ted Lilly (L)

SP Ryan Dempster (R)

SP Randy Wells (R)

SP Tom Gorzelanny (L)

CL Carlos Marmol (R)

SU Angel Guzman (R)

SU Sean Marshall (L)

LOOGY John Grabow (L)

MR Jeff Samardzija (R)

MR Jeff Gray (R)

MOP Neal Cotts (L)

C Koyie Hill (S)

1B/3B Chad Tracy (L)
IF/OF Jeff Baker (R)
1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir (L)

OF Xavier Nady (R)

Offseason Prospectus #5: The Oakland Athletics

Last season, Billy Beane, Moneyball icon and godfather of the modern GM, uncharacteristically chased a straight. He attempted to make a run at the postseason by virtue of a strategy completely contrary to that which made him famous. He traded a blue-chip prospect (Carlos Gonzalez) for one season from an impending free agent slugger (Matt Holliday). He signed a quartet of aging injury-prone veterans - Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, Nomar Garciaparra, and Adam Kennedy. He planted his top four pitching prospects - Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, and Gio Gonzalez - in the starting rotation, even though it meant jump-starting their progress towards arbitration. He handed outfield spots to two players with low on-base percentages - Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney. Basically, he was the exact opposite of what Michael Lewis advertised way back in 2003.

Except, really he wasn't. This was Moneyball at it's core. The approach was different, but the strategy's essence was the same. Beane was playing against the market. With the economy plummeting, most GMs were reluctant to be aggressive, especially with veterans, so Cabrera, Giambi, and Garciaparra were available for relatively cheap, one-year deals. There was significant statistical evidence that the "Juiced Ball Era" was over, so speed and defense were reaching a new premium. Enter Davis, Kennedy, and Sweeney.

Other teams were becoming more and more reluctant to rush big-ticket prospects to the majors, especially pitchers, because of the cost of arbitration, but that also meant they didn't always field a team of the best possible players, and left them susceptible to AA and AAA injuries. (Nothing is worse than sending a bonus baby to have Tommy John before he's ever pitched an inning for the big-league club.) In the wake of the "Joba rules," the "Liriano rules," the Zumaya project, and the arrival of Tim Lincecum, dominant from the moment he stepped on the mound right across the Bay, Beane had to be wondering if maybe a bunch of 21 and 22-year-olds could own the AL West, especially pitching in a spacious park like the Coliseum.

He decided, while his competitors (except for the Yankees), were acting cautiously, he would go for the gold. The rationale was sound. The results were abominable. Holliday had the worst start of his career. Same for Cabrera. Giambi was even worse, to the point of being released around midseason. Garciaparra, predictably, spent most of the season on the DL, as did Oakland's two best incumbent players, Eric Chavez and Justin Duchscherer. The A's scuffled to their third consecutive losing season with the second worst winning percentage of the Beane era, despite having the second highest payroll of any team he's ever fielded.

As I said, although the chips didn't fall the way he would've liked, it's hard to fault him for trying, but I think it's safe to say, he won't play his hand that way again in 2010.

Free Agents:

Bobby Crosby (30) SS/3B
Justin Duchscherer (32) RHSP
Nomar Garciaparra (36) DL
Adam Kennedy (34) 2B

Arbitration Eligible:

Santiago Casilla (30) RHRP
Jack Cust (31) OF/DH
Rajai Davis (29) CF
Joey Devine (26) RHRP
Scott Hairston (30) OF
Michael Wuertz (31) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Chris Carter (23) 1B
Adrian Cardenas (22) 2B/SS
Tommy Everidge (27) 1B/3B
Clayton Mortensoen (25) RHSP
Eric Patterson (27) 2B/OF
Landon Powell (28) C
Brett Wallace (23) 3B

The good news is that last winter's spending spree certainly wasn't a complete waste. Beane dealt Holliday at the deadline and got back at least two quality prospects from the Cardinals, Brett Wallace and Clayton Mortenson, both of whom are likely to join the big-league club at some point next season. He sent Cabrera to the Twins for their 2nd round pick from 2008, Tyler Ladendorf, who's probably at least a couple years away from contributing.

The silver lining for the A's was that seven pitchers made nine or more starts for them in '09, none of them older than 25, and they still finished third in the league in ERA (helped a great deal by their bullpen, which finished #1). Brett Anderson made a serious case for Rookie of the Year (which was won by his teammate, closer Andrew Bailey) when he went 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA in the season's second half. Trevor Cahill threw 179 innings and finished with ten wins and a league-average ERA (4.63), despite being only 21-years-old. Gio Gonzalez struggled with control, but struck out 109 batters in 99 innings. Josh Outman, who was part of the Joe Blanton trade in '08, joined the rotation late in the year and went 4-1 with a 3.58 ERA in a dozen starts. Dallas Braden was solid (8-9, 3.89) and Vin Mazzaro showed flashes of brilliance (2.95 ERA in six June starts). It is not unreasonable to expect all of these pitchers to improve in 2010 and Beane still has Mortensen, Dana Eveland, and Edgar Gonzalez waiting for opportunities. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic when I predict that two or three years from now Anderson, Cahill, and Gio Gonzalez will have made Oakland fans forget about Hudson, Mulder, and Zito.

The real question for the Athletics is offense. Beane has had a lot of success in the past filling out his roster with useful role players. Guys who possessed one particular excellent skill set. He's still doing that. Rajai Davis is a solid center-field, leadoff type, who could easily lead the league in steals with a full season. Jack Cust is the classic low-average, high-strikeout slugger, who will belt 30 bombs and draw a ton of walks. Kurt Suzuki is a very good defensive backstop, who isn't an automatic out on offense. However, all of the really successful A's teams had at least one or two superlative hitters in the middle of the lineup, guys like Chavez, Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, and Frank Thomas. The current A's do not possess such a player, and haven't since they let Thomas walk after his last great season in 2006. Carlos Gonzalez had the tools to become such a player, but was traded to Colorado for Holliday.

Perhaps Beane is convinced that Chris Carter and Brett Wallace have that kind of high-end potential. If so, they will probably get a chance to show flickers of it this coming year. The clock is now ticking on Beane's young arms. If he wants to have a run with them like the one he put together early in this decade with the first "Big Three," he will need to bring all the pieces together in time for 2011. Even though Oakland has very little money committed going into 2010, I expect Beane will be inactive this offseason. He will give many at-bats next year to Wallace, Carter, Daric Barton, Eric Patterson, Landon Powell, and whoever else he believes could develop into an everyday player. It wouldn't surprise me if he uses valuable pieces like Cust and Mark Ellis to increase his stockpile of young talent at midseason, so that next year he will have both the money and tradable resources to acquire whatever he still needs to become a competitor for the next three or four seasons.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

RF Rajai Davis (R)

2B Mark Ellis (R)

3B Eric Chavez (L)

DH Jake Fox (R)

1B Daric Barton (L)

C Kurt Suzuki (R)

LF Eric Patterson (L)

CF Coco Crisp (S)

SS Cliff Pennington (S)

SP Justin Duchscherer (R)

SP Brett Anderson (L)

SP Trevor Cahill (R)

SP Dallas Braden (L)

SP Vin Mazzaro (R)

CL Andrew Bailey (R)

SU Brad Ziegler (R)

SU Michael Wuertz (R)

LOOGY Dana Eveland (L)

MR Joey Devine (R)

SWING Gio Gonzalez (L)

SWING Josh Outman (L)

C Landon Powell (S)

1B Chris Carter (R)

IF Aaron Miles (S)

OF Ryan Sweeney (L)

Problems with Baseball Writers

Jerry Crasnick 11/18/09

"This year the Mets' Daniel Murphy, a converted outfielder, tied for first among big league first basemen with a "plus-minus" ranking of +14. The Yankees' Mark Teixeira, who appears to set the standard for the position, ranked 17th in the same system."

Right in the middle of a column on the comparable advantages of statistics and scouting when it comes to defensive evaluations, Crasnick betrays a seeming ignorance of both sides of the argument. The metric he's referring to is John Dewan's "Fielding Bible" rankings, from Baseball Info Solutions. Crasnick misunderstands something which Dewan never fails to acknowledge in his own writing (as do other sabermetricians like James, Neyer, etc.), that there are always going to be outliers in any quantitative system, but in the interest of objective analysis, you have to report them. Those who utilize the date have to be capable to recognizing the outliers and choose either to ignore them or give them credence.

In the case of Murphy, there is of course the problem which most commonly creates statistical outliers; that is, small sample size. Murphy played only 849 innings of first base in '09, approximately 500 innings less than a full-time first-baseman like Texeira. Even the most obstinate statistician, like Dewan, would be the first to admit that anything less than a full season's worth of stats is likely to be unreliable. Which is why most of Dewan's qualitative analysis relies on three seasons worth of data. I would expect those who are comparing Jason Bay and Matt Holliday as defenders, a comparison which Crasnick features in his article, are also relying on several seasons worth of statistics, thus alleviating to some extent things like park factors, the centerfielder's range, etc.

Crasnick's statement makes the assumption that a player moving to a new position must therefore be bad at that position, at least at first. That's a generality, but not a universality. Moreover, he ignores completely the fact that although Murphy has played mostly outfield with the Mets, he was drafted as a third baseman and played several infield positions in the minor leagues. In light of that fact, he's probably more comfortable on the infield than in the outfield, which he didn't play with any regularity until he got to the big leagues. I will be the first to admit I didn't watch a lot of Mets games this season, but based on his history and the fact that he's younger and quicker than a fair number of full-time first baseman, I'm not surprised that he was above average at least at some aspects of the position.

On several occasions I've dealt with the fact that despite the euphoric laudations of many observers, who somehow had managed to miss Texeira's excellent glovework for the Angels, Braves, and Rangers, Texeira had an off-year defensively in 2009. In particular, he range declined, as did the quality of his throwing. This can be explained in a few ways. Perhaps it was sample size; maybe fewer balls were hit his way, or hit his way in throwing situations, than would be normal over the course of a season. More likely it seems to me, based on my observations, he was playing closer to the line and was more reluctant to throw than he had been in the past. This could be a result of the Yankees defensive strategy or it could be because Texeira had a minor physical problem which effected him more on defense than on offense. Regardless, he continued to be quite good at footwork around the bag, reaching for errant throws, and consistently turned the balls he did field into outs.

The problem I have with the Texeira portion of Crasnick's quote is the phrase "appears to set the standard for the position." In the midst of a column which is supposedly about various forms of evidence, Crasnick makes a declaration of superiority completely unfounded by evidence: statistical, scouting, anecdotal, or otherwise. There is a great deal of multi-year evidence to support the fact that Texeira is a very good fielder, but not a lot which would support his being head and shoulders above the rest of the field.

While I am willing to believe that many (not all, but many) organizations are finding a balance between statistics and scouting, usually probably by getting the two measures to correlate, that does not lead me to give any more credence to the unsubstantiated opinions of sportswriters (nor does it give any more distinction to the Gold Gloves, voted on by managers and coaches). Though I happen to agree with his conclusion, that evidence gained exclusively be stats or exclusively by scouting is more error-prone than the combination of the two, Crasnick's article is fraught with presumptions, logical fallacies, and evasions which do a disservice to his argument.

Offseason Prospectus #4: The Milwaukee Brewers

Not too long ago I posted about the "I-94 swap" of J. J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. At the time I presumed that Gomez would have another year prior to arbitration, but as it turned out, he squeaked into that magical "super two" class by the hair on his chinny-chin-chin. Of the 210 players up for arbitration this winter, only Mike Fontenot and Dustin Nippert have less service time than Gomez. The center-fielder won't get a massive award, but his salary will at least double, to somewhere in the vicinity of a million dollars, which makes him slightly less of a steal. Hardy, of course, will likely make at least five or six times that, so Milwaukee is still getting the "payroll flexibility" they claim to be coveting.

Free Agents:

Mike Cameron (37) CF

Craig Counsell (39) INF

Jason Kendall (36) C

Braden Looper (35) RHSP

Felipe Lopez (30) 2B

Claudio Vargas (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Dave Bush (30) RHSP

Todd Coffey (29) RHRP

Jody Gerut (32) OF

Carlos Gomez (24) CF

Corey Hart (28) RF

Seth McClung (29) RHRP

Mike Rivera (33) C

Carlos Villanueva (26) RHSP

Rickie Weeks (27) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Chris Cody (26) LHSP

Tim Dillard (26) RHP

Alcides Escobar (23) SS

Matt Gamel (24) 3B

Jonathan Lucroy (23) C

Chris Narveson (28) LHSP

Angel Salome (23) C

In the last five years, Milwaukee has become quite possibly the finest small-market franchise in the country. So far, they only have one playoff appearance to show for it, in 2008, largely because they face stiff divisional competition from the Cubs (#3 payroll in '09), Cardinals (#13), and Astros (#9), but the Brewers continually draft well, develop well, and make wise, low-risk acquisitions (Jeff Suppan aside). They have exactly one player signed beyond 2010 and his name is Ryan Braun, one of the safest long term investments in all of baseball, who they've wrapped up all the way to 2015.

GM Doug Melvin made a point of resigning legendary closer Trevor Hoffman before he had a chance to test the free agent market. $8 Million is a significant investment for Milwaukee (who had a total payroll of about $80 Million in '09), but Hoffman was excellent at the back-end of games in his first season with the Brewers and provides veteran leadership in the very young clubhouse (which is likely to lose other popular veterans Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron) and a stabilizing presence in the volatile bullpen.

The Brewers lineup is loaded. The Brewers pitching staff is not. Yovani Gallardo proved himself ready to be an Ace after the departure of C. C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but absolutely nobody stepped up to fill out the rest of the rotation. Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva still possess promising arms, but none of them posted an ERA below 6.00 as starters in '09. Not an encouraging sign. Suppan continued his precipitous early 30s decline. In each of his three years since joining the Brewers, his ERA, WHIP, and BB have gone up, while his wins, innings, and strikeouts have gone down. I defy even the most obstinate sabermetrician to find a positive indicator among his peripherals.

While the Brewers remain stocked with talented hitters in the high levels of the minor leagues, they are not replete with quality arms. Jeremy Jeffress is at least a year or two away. Tim Dillard and Chris Cody regressed at AAA, although there is still time for them to develop into fair back-end starters. Chris Capuano is still recovering from his Tommy John and, Chris Narveson, who pitched very well both at AAA and in a big-league cup of coffee in 2009 is nonetheless a 28-year-old rookie with a minor-league record of 52-66.

If the Brewers could find one top-flight starter to pair with Gallardo, they might be able to cobble together at least an average rotation, which would make them very dangerous, considering their loaded offense. John Lackey is not a good fit. He is too risky and too expensive for a club with significant financial constraints, although he might display Sabathia/Cliff Lee type dominance over the short term with a move to the National League. The Brewers might explore a Ben Sheets renaissance, if he were willing to take an incentive-laden one-year deal to re-establish his value after missing all of '09. It could be a good thing for both parties. Sheets gets to pitch in a stadium, division, and league that he is familiar with while he tries to shake off the rust, and he has a lethal Brewers lineup to take a little pressure off.

In a perfect world, the Brewers would make a run on Roy Halladay. They are among the few teams who have enough prospects to tempt the Blue Jays without completely decimating their team for many years to come. Certainly, it is nice to have a wave of fresh talent every season, as Milwaukee has had in each of the last half dozen years, but at some point they are going to have to be willing to mortgage a bit of the future in order to go for a World Series. That is, unfortunately, a fact of life for teams in the middle and lower payroll tiers. Halladay, paired with Gallardo, Braun, and Fielder, would make the Brewers one of the most feared teams in all of baseball, but he would probably cost Milwaukee at least three of their top five prospects.

Few teams have the excess of talent which makes relatively inexpensive and quality hitters like Hardy, Cameron, and Felipe Lopez expendable, but Milwaukee does. Even after a minor house-cleaning, Ken Macha will be challenged to find regular big-league at-bats for Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Mat Gamel. The Brewers will also have to decide whether they can afford to hand over full-time catching chores to Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy, both rookies. They may decided it is necessary to bring back Kendall in a more limited role. Or, they may look for a cheaper option, somebody who has more experience as a back-up, like Jose Molina, Gregg Zaun, or Ramon Castro.

Braun and Fielder have replaced Manny and Papi as the most consistent and dangerous tandem in baseball, but if the Brewers are going to make a run, the rest of the lineup will need step up. Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks both have tons of talent, but were limited by injuries in '09. They need to step up and become the Brewer's versions of Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Escobar and Gomez will give Milwaukee superior defense up the middle, with the potential to become solid bottom-of-the-lineup producers. Escobar hit over .300 in his 38 game audition in '09, but with no power (.368 SLG). He's still just 23, so there is lots of room for development. The real depth of the Brewers attack may ride on the question of whether Casey McGehee can duplicate his rookie performance. His '09 OPS was significantly higher than any he posted in the minors. If he regresses, then Mat Gamel will need to live up to his hype. His 2008 production was one of the reasons Milwaukee was comfortable parting ways with Matt LaPorta. He took a small step back at AAA, but still showed excellent power and fair plate discipline. If he becomes a legitimate five or six hole slugger, the Brewers lineup may supplant Philadelphia as the best in the NL.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

2B Rickie Weeks (R)

3B Casey McGehee (R)

LF Ryan Braun (R)

1B Prince Fielder (L)

RF Corey Hart (R)

SS Alcides Escobar (R)

CF Carlos Gomez (R)

C Angel Salome (R)

SP Yovani Gallardo (R)

SP Randy Wolf (L)

SP Manny Parra (L)

SP Dave Bush (R)

SP Jeff Suppan (R)

CL Trevor Hoffman (R)

SU LaTroy Hawkins (R)

SU Todd Coffey (R)

LOOGY Mitch Stetter (L)

MR David Riske (R)

SWING Carlos Villanueva (R)

MOP Claudio Vargas (R)

MOP Chris Narveson (L)

C Gregg Zaun (S)

IF Mat Gamel (L)

IF Craig Counsell (L)

OF Jody Gerut (L)

Offseason Prospectus #3: The Chicago White Sox

Kenny Williams, as usual, wasted no time getting his offseason started. Within a week of the end of the World Series he had already made a trade (netting Mark Teahen from Kansas City for Josh Fields and Chris Getz), resigned a veteran (Mark Kotsay), and declined the team option on another (Jermaine Dye). The trade, which surprised a few people, since it included a guy (Fields) who hit 23 HR for the White Sox at the age of 24 in 2007, seems designed to give the White Sox flexibility (Teahen can play 3B, 1B, OF, and even a little 2B) and unload a couple fading prospects who will be promised many more "developmental" at-bats with the Royals than they would've gotten with the Sox. Getz and Fields proved in '09 that they weren't really ready to be everyday players, at least not on a contending team, and the White Sox are, most definitely, one of the dozen or so franchises who enters every season with the intention to win it all.

Free Agents:

Ramon Castro (34) C

Bartolo Colon (37) RHSP

Octavio Dotel (36) RHRP

Jermaine Dye (36) RF

Scott Podsednik (34) OF

Arbitration-Eligible:

D. J. Carrasco (33) RHRP

John Danks (25) RHSP

Bobby Jenks (29) RHRP

Tony Pena (28) RHRP

Carlos Quentin (27) LF/DH

Mark Teahen (28) 3B/UT

ETA 2010?:

Tyler Flowers (24) C

Lucas Harrell (25) RHSP

Dan Hudson (23) RHSP

Brent Lillibridge (26) INF

Jhonny Nunez (24) RHRP

Clevelan Santeliz (23) RHRP

Dayan Viciedo (21) 3B

In 2009 the White Sox finished below .500 (just barely, .488) for only the second time in the last decade. Thanks mostly to their long-awaited World Series victory in 2005, the popular tandem of manager, Ozzie Guillen, and GM, Kenny Williams, will likely be steering the Pale Stockings for the foreseeable future. And, despite Ozzie's quirky, occasionally offensive personality, there is a lot to like about this South Side administration. Williams is not risk-adverse. He is willing to gamble. Sometimes those gambles pay off, as in his acquisition of Carlos Quentin prior to the 2008 season. Other times, as in the waiver claim on Sixty Million Dollar Man, Alex Rios, and the trade for Jake Peavy this fall, they don't...at least not immediately.

What Williams and Guillen clearly recognized this past season, however, was that the core which won the '05 championship and took them back to the playoffs in '08, has aged considerably, past the point of viability in many cases. The 2010 team will be considerably younger. Gone are Jim Thome (39), Jermaine Dye (36), Jose Contreras (38), and, probably, free agents Octavio Dotel (36) and Scott Podsednik (34). The new White Sox will be built around Gordon Beckham (23), Alexei Ramirez (28), Quentin (27), Rios (29), Peavy (29), John Danks (25), and Gavin Floyd (27); and led, of course, by the longtime "faces of the franchise," Mark Buehrle (31) and Paul Konerko (34). Clearly, this is a team which can easily compete in the tightly-packed AL Central. With rebounds from Peavy, Quentin, and Rios, and a couple smart moves this winter, they could match-up pretty well with the big boys of the American League.

Williams still has a few questions to answer. Center-field has been a black hole since Aaron Rowand was traded prior to the 2006 season. The good defenders (Brian Anderson, Dewayne Wise, etc.) were automatic outs, and the decent hitters (Scott Podsednik, Nick Swisher, etc.) left serious gaps in the alleys, which is a major problem when your top three starting pitchers (Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd) are all in the top 25 in the AL in fly-ball rate.

Alex Rios was brought in to help solidify the defense, while, hopefully, providing significantly better than the 530 OPS he posted after joining the team in '09. The departures of Thome and Dye give Williams flexibility. He could move the oft-injured and defensively mediocre Quentin to DH or continue to play him in left. He could go after a true centerfielder like Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp, who combined with Rios in right would dramatically help Chicago's rotation. If the brass are willing to spend, the White Sox could even make an offer on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Or, they could go back to a relatively inexpensive Thome-esque veteran, somebody like Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, or Gary Sheffield. Chicago definitely needs two OF/DH additions before the season begins, because with Fields in KC, they have no potential replacements within the system. That shouldn't necessarily be poor reflection on the White Sox system. OF/DH types are the most readily available players on the free agent market most years.

The Sox have used prospects as trade bait in recent years to an extent most teams in this era are reluctant to do, which is how they've been able to acquire major-league talent like Peavy, Thome, and Tony Pena. Somewhat surprisingly, there are still some very useful players coming up the pipeline. Teahen will hold down the third base job only until Dayan Viciedo proves himself ready. Even at the outset of 2010, he could get some competition from Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix. Williams likely sees Teahen as Mark DeRosa-lite, a guy who is a fair starter at several positions, but most useful as insurance against injuries and fatigue, a guy who's best served getting three or four starts a week.

The White Sox catcher of the future is Tyler Flowers. He could start sharing time with A. J. Pierzynski this coming season, depending largely on how the volatile Pierzynski responds. A. J. probably knows his memorable tenure in Chicago will be over when his contract expires next winter. A. J., know affectionately on the South Side as "Ass, Jack" could respond in one of two ways, either by treating Flowers as promising protege or potential saboteur. Want to make a bet?

The White Sox best youngsters are pitchers. They can safely part ways with Dotel and perhaps even consider trading Bobby Jenks (who is getting a bit expensive) knowing that D. J. Carrasco, Matt Thorton, and Tony Pena all have closer potential, and prospects Jhonny Nunez, Clevelan Santeliz, and Jon Link are ready to step into the middle innings. The White Sox Opening Day rotation is set, barring injury - Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Freddy Garcia - a very formidable staff, but if somebody struggles or falls ill, as almost inevitably happens, they have not only Clayton Richard, who posted a very admirable 9-5 record and 4.42 ERA as a starter in '09, but also Lucas Harrell and Dan Hudson. The Old Dominion alum, Hudson, drafted in '08, surged through the minors, seemingly getting better as he went, then made two decent starts (11 IP, 3 ER) with the big club in September. He will probably get the first crack at a rotation spot.

Finally, Williams and Guillen will have to figure out what to do at the top of the order. Assuming Quentin and Rios return to form, they will offer a lot of pop, alongside Konerko and Ramirez, in the middle of the lineup, but Chicago will need to put people on base in front of them. Gordon Beckham will likely hit second. He sees a fair number of pitches and doesn't strike out a lot, but he doesn't offer incredible speed or OBP. As such, the White Sox could help shape the market for this year's premier leadoff men, namely Chone Figgins and Johnny Damon, or they may got the cheap route and take a chance by trading for Juan Pierre or Wily Taveras.

Despite a somewhat disappointing finish in '09, it's not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Juan Pierre (L)

2B Gordon Beckham (R)

LF Carlos Quentin (R)

1B Paul Konerko (R)

DH Vladimir Guerrero (R) FA

RF Alex Rios (R)

C A. J. Pierzynski (L)

3B Mark Teahen (L)

SS Alexei Ramirez (R)

SP Mark Buehrle (L)

SP Jake Peavy (R)

SP John Danks (L)

SP Gavin Floyd (R)

SP Freddy Garcia (R)

CL Bobby Jenks (R)

SU J. J. Putz (R)

SU Tony Pena Jr. (R)

SU Scott Linebrink (R)

LOOGY Matt Thorton (L)

SWING Dan Hudson (R)

MOP Jhonny Nunez (R)

C Tyler Flowers (R)

IF Omar Vizquel (S)

IF/OF Mark Kotsay (L)

OF Andruw Jones (R)