The Sporting Hippeaux: Fantastic Thoughts: "Fat closers make happy owners." (Closer Preview)

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Fantastic Thoughts: "Fat closers make happy owners." (Closer Preview)

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers)
5. Joe Nathan (Twins)

If you want one of these guys, you'll have to pay, either with one of your first five picks, or $25-$30 (if not more) in an auction.

6. Jose Valverde (Tigers)
7. Francisco Cordero (Reds)
8. Bobby Jenks (White Sox)
9. Trevor Hoffman (Brewers)

I really believe that this is where the value is. Every year, the pundits become convince that these guys are just waiting to self-destruct. Too fat. Too old. Too wild. Too cocky. But last year they combined for 130 saves. In 2008, it was 138. 173 in '07. 136 in '06. Many will bet against them in 2010 and maybe they'll finally be right, but me, I'll grab one of the fat boys in the middle rounds and odds are I'll be just fine.

10. Joakim Soria (Royals)
11. Brian Wilson (Giants)
12. Andrew Bailey (Athletics)
13. Huston Street (Rockies)
14. Carlos Marmol (Cubs)

The young guns. A couple of these guys may jump into the top tier by the end of the year. Soria would have been there already if injuries hadn't cut into his '09 campaign, thus causing potential owners some anxiety. The price of youth is inconsistency, so buyer beware, but you'll be entertained watching them pitch.

15. Heath Bell (Padres)
16. Frank Francisco (Rangers)
17. David Aardsma (Mariners)

This trio pitched well in their first year captaining a bullpen and there's no obvious reason why they wouldn't do so again. However, you should be slightly wary. Literally hundreds of relievers have posted a 30-save season, but only a few dozen have done it more than once. The sophomore season is when the wheat gets separated from the chaff when it comes to closing ballgames.

18. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
19. Brian Fuentes (Angels)
20. Billy Wagner (Braves)
21. Mike Gonzalez (Orioles)
22. Rafael Soriano (Rays)
23. Kerry Wood (Indians)
24. Octavio Dotel (Pirates)

These players have all done this job for several years and done it well, but there are a few reasons to be skeptical of them in 2010, to an extent you may not have been in the past. Brad Lidge was a much-publicized mess last season. There is no way Charlie Manuel will give him as long a leash if he again struggles out of the gate. Brian Fuentes led the league in saves, but got bombed down the stretch and in the postseason, something Angels fans won't soon forget. Wagner is old. Wood is brittle. You get the picture.

25. Leo Nunez (Marlins)
26. Ryan Franklin (Cardinals)
27. Matt Capps (Nationals)

This trio managed to win and hold down the closer's role for most or all of 2009, but they did so without dominating results. They will be pressed from the start in 2010 and may not even survive Spring Training.

28. Juan Gutierrez (D-Backs)
29. Chad Qualls (D-Backs)
30. Jason Frasor (Blue Jays)
31. Brandon Lyon (Astros)
32. Matt Lindstrom (Astros)
33. Scott Downs (Blue Jays)
34. Kevin Gregg (Blue Jays)

The closer role is still TBD in Toronto, Houston, and Arizona. These guys are likely to be battling it out all through the spring and possibly even into April, so you're unlikely to know for sure that you're even drafting a closer. Nonetheless, it's worth speculating in the late rounds or with a few dollars, because it wouldn't surprise me at all if every guy on this list ends up with at least 8-10 saves.

35. Fernando Rodney (Angels)
36. J. P. Howell (Rays)
37. Ryan Madsen (Phillies)
38. Jim Johnson (Orioles)
39. J. J. Putz (White Sox)
40. George Sherrill (Dodgers)
41. Mike MacDougal (Marlins)

If you take one of these guys at the end of your draft, expect to be about as popular as a stock-shorter on the floor of the exchange. By choosing a player from this tier or the one below it, you're essentially saying you have no faith in that team's current closer, either because you think they are going to be ineffective or injured. The above group features players who have closing experience and have even had moderate success in the venture, and therefore are pretty much guaranteed the first shot at the job if the current closer does falter.

42. Neftali Feliz (Rangers)
43. Daniel Bard (Red Sox)
44. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
45. Angel Guzman (Cubs)
46. Drew Storen (Nationals)
47. Chris Perez (Indians)
48. Jason Motte (Cardinals)
49. Jose Ceda (Marlins)
50. Mike Adams (Padres)
51. Matt Thorton (White Sox)
52. Manny Corpas (Rockies)

These are "big" young arms who project as potential future closers. It wouldn't take a miracle for them to end up doing the job as some point this season. The first three on the list are especially interesting. All three have the potential to contribute even as set-up men, because they'll feature good ERAs and WHIPs alongside a ton of strikeouts. Moreover, as all three should move into either a closer or starter roles at some point in the next year or two, so they've got long-term consequences in keeper leagues.

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Hippeaux's Greatest Hits

"Some visitors have been slightly confused by the broadness of content at SPH, which I fully understand. When this blog started, it was purely for my own amusement. Then it became an avenue for sharing thoughts with baseball-obsessed friends. Only recently have I become comfortable writing for public consumption. As per request, for new readers I have put together a list of the most popular (and some of my personal favorite) posts from the last four seasons. My sincere appreciation goes out to all readers. Keep the comments and the emails coming." - Hippeaux

Musings Archive (2009 Regular Season)

9/24/09 - ESPN is clearly endorsing Chris Coghlan as the NL Rookie of the Year. Don't jump on that bandwagon too quickly. Andrew McCutchen leads Coghlan in RBI, HR, XBH, SLG, and SB, despite have 20% less plate appearances and hitting in a far lesser lineup. He also plays great defense at a prime position, which Coghlan is something of a butcher in LF. Casey McGehee leads Coghlan in RBI, HR, SLG, and OPS with even fewer plate appearances, while also playing tougher positions (although neither particularly well). Meanwhile, the award really belongs to J. A. Happ (10-4, 2.77) or Tommy Hanson (10-4, 2.85)
9/24/09 - Since the All-Star Break Bronson Arroyo is 6-5 with an ERA of 2.10 and a K/BB rate of clost to 3/1. Despite a poor start he is going to end up having another solid season in Cincinnati, probably his best since '06, and remains an excellent late-round selection in deep leagues in '10. He has at least 14 wins in four of the last five years, as well as 200+ innings for the fifth year in a row. In points leagues especially, that adds up to a very solid contribution.
8/28/09 - So much for the Home Run Derby jinx. Prince Fielder has fourteen dingers since winning the derby, that's one every 11.2 AB, fifth best in the majors.
8/13/09 - Everth Cabrera, the 22-year-old Rule 5 draftee who's spent the season playing shortstop for the Padres, is becoming a legitimate deep league player. Since July 25th he is hitting .352 with a .436 OBP and .618 SLG. He now has very respectable numbers for the season, especially his 15 SB in 17 attempts. He looks to be an everyday player for the next several years at a relatively thin position and should be a great sleeper candidate for 2010.
5/30/09 - Chris Davis, after going 0-for-7 with 6 K in Saturday's double-header, is on pace for 40 HR (hooray) and 260 K (boo), the latter number potentially obliterating Mark Reynolds record (204) set just last season. Davis' homerun pace is excellent, but the rest of his numbers (689 OPS) are downright atrocious. He's only 23, so don't be surprised if Texas decides he needs another six weeks at AAA. Andrew Jones and Hank Blalock have both been hitting well and Justin Smoak is tearing up AA (.325, 947 OPS), so the Rangers have no shortage of options.
5/30/09 - Matt Lindstrom continues to get lit up, which has finally resulted in a save opportunity for Leo Nunez, who has been pretty good (3.51 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). No official move has been made, but at this point Lindstrom (6.10 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) has to be nearing the end of his leash. Nunez is young, hard-throwing and has been a succesful reliever for two seasons now. There is no reason to believe he can't hold down a closer's job.
5/18/09 - After walking four times on Monday evening, Prince Fielder now has 34 BB and a .429 OBP. He's always been a fairly patient hitter, but he's on pace for about 140 walks, that's 50 more than his career high. Let us not forget that Prince is still only 25-years-old, very much on the upward slope of his career. His improved plate discipline could be the sign that he is ready to move from Adam Dunn (nothing wrong with it) to Miguel Cabrera territory.
5/18/09 - It's a shame about Rickie Weeks, finally having the breakout year we've all been waiting for. Now he's got a wrist injury that not only ruins his season, but could jeopordize his power when he returns (i.e. Derrek Lee, Big Papi). For those of you looking for replacements, check out the Rays, Akinori Iwamura (10 steals) and Ben Zobrist (7 HR, 3 SB). It should also be noted that top prospect, Mat Gamel, got his first start the day Weeks injury was announced. While he can't play second base, he is probably the best offensive option the Brewers have and Bill Hall has proven over the years that he can play just about anywhere.
5/16/09 - 22-year-old Colby Rasmus homered for the second night in a row before the Brewers/Cardinals game was postponed yesterday. He's got a respectable 816 OPS in May and will play everyday with Ankiel and Ludwick on the D.L. There's a good chance he's ready to hold down centerfield permanently. Like other really young players - Justin Upton, Delmon Young, etc. - you'll have to be patient, because he'll be streaky, but get him on your roster in all leagues that you still can.
5/16/09 - Take the Upton brothers, eliminate speed, power, and handsomeness, what do you get? The Brothers LaRoche. They suck. So does Brandon Moss. And so goes the Pirates. It's time for Andrew McCutcheon (.293/.356/.496 @ AAA), Steve Pearce (.275/.360/.475 @ AAA), and Pedro Alvarez (7 HR @ A+). Quit stalling, Neal. Pittsburg deserves better. They deserve a little hope.
5/2/09 - I'm pretty sure I wrote about him earlier this spring, but here's a reminder to pounce on Blue Jays prospect Brett Cecil. He was just promoted and will pitch twice this coming week. Although it could be short-lived with Jesse Litsch and Ricky Romero expected back by the end of the month, and David Purcey likely to regains some control at AAA, I would bet on Cecil being a more permanent fixture in the rotation than Robert Ray or Brian Tallet.
4/14/09 - Noticed a couple things while watching the Cardinals and the D-Backs this afternoon, besides Chris Carpenter leaving the game after injuring himself while hitting (cross fingers). Yadier Molina had a tremendous at-bat against Max Scherzer which ended in a two RBI double. After falling down 0-2, Yadier fouled off pitches and worked the count full, making the youngster work, eventually getting a hanging changeup. Yadier will probably never hit 10 HR, but he is becoming a very smart, very patient contact hitter who is almost impossible to strike out. You could do a lot worse for your catcher in deeper formats. Also, note that Rick Ankiel has taken four walks already this year. If he continues to improve his commitment to patience and forces pitchers to throw in his wheelhouse, he could be a 40 HR threat.
4/9/09 - Just hours after pitching well in his first start of the season, Nick Adenhart was killed in a hit-and-run crash in Fullerton. What a tragedy. Sadly, this also further decimates the Angels rotation which is already without John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar.
3/18/09 - In an interview on "30 in 30" (the best show on the spring calender) Billy Beane sounded like he was seriously considering starting the season with some of his Bonus Babies in the rotation. Gio Gonzalez, Sean Gallagher, Brett Anderson, Vin Mazzaro, and Trevor Cahill are all likely to be impact players at some point, maybe even this year. They will come cheap and definitely provide their share of strikeouts and a decent number of wins, but may be a hazard to your ERA and WHIP. Only Anderson seems to have developed good control to this point.
3/16/09 - Dice-K pounded the zone against an excellent, patient Cuban team and shut them down for six innings (on only 85 pitches) with no walks and 8 K! Could this be the indication of a new pitching philosophy that the Gyroball artist will take with him to Boston? If so, he could be headed toward a Cy Young.
3/7/09 - Before you go rushing to make Captain Jeter the fourth shortstop off the board, remind yourself: minus his "intangibles," Jeter is just a high-average singles hitter who plays poor defense. You can't expect better than .300-85-10-70-10 from him. He's Placido Polanco!
3/3/09 - Don't overspend on Cole Hamels. He's going ahead of guys like Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay in far too many expert and average drafts. Remember, Hamels struggle with injuries in the minors, is only 25, and has thrown 132, 190, and 262 innings in the last three seasons. Such an escalating workload can be very hard on a young pitcher. Remember Jaret Wright? Probably not. How about Justin Verlander...
3/3/09 - Mark Buehrle just turned 30 and is entering his tenth major-league season. He's pitched 200+ innings in the last nine of them and averaged 13 wins a year with a 3.80 ERA, yet he continues to slip in drafts. His mediocre 2006 was an aberration. Get him back on your roster.

Musings Archive

5/15 - The Man With The Golden Arm is understandably peeved. The Blue Jays series with the Phillies, scheduled for June 25-27 in Toronto has been moved to Philadelphia to better accommodate risks associated with the G20 Summit. Not only is this a strange acknowledgement of their security limitations, which would make me very uncomfortable if I was a citizen in Toronto, but it cost the Jays what would have undoubtedly been three of the best-attended games of the season (featuring the reigning NL Champs, led by former Jay, Roy Halladay). It also means the Phillies are getting three additional home games, which can't make the other teams in the NL East very happy.
5/8 - Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in. I began the season without any optimism, for the first time in a decade, but somehow - thanks to an unsustainable April from Carlos Silva, a typical Soriano hot streak, a couple of moonshots from Marlon Byrd, and now Starlin Castro's 6 RBI debut - I find myself daring to dream anew. The Cubs sure know how to twist the knife.
4/20 - Some Gestapo fashionista at MLB has banned Joe Maddon from wearing his Rays hoody in the dugout. Seriously, there's growing frustration with the draft and the fishy regulations regarding international free agents, rumors of collusive behavior and improper use of revenue-sharing money, and one third of MLB franchises are drawing less than 25,000 fans per game in the early going of 2010, but Bud Selig and his fascist goons are worried about the price point on the official MLB merchandise the Rays manager is rocking during the twelve televised seconds he spends visiting the mound each game. C'mon, guys. C'mon.
4/15 - Canandian blogger, Navin Vaswani, details his two-month sojourn into Americana, as he visits all 29 U.S. ballparks.
4/7 - Just in time for the 2010 season, Bill Simmons endorses SABR. Check out his excellent "sabermetrics for dummies" column.
4/5 - If Milton Bradley is "baseball's Kanye West," who is baseball's Taylor Swift?
3/15 - Ron Washington asks an important question, "What is the definition of 'enhancing'?"
3/10 - "He gave me thirty million dollars. God bless Jim Hendry and his family." - Milton Bradley, Seattle Mariners (What more is there to say?)
3/5 - The Giants finally got some retribution for the Brewers' "exploding" walk-off celebration last September when Barry Zito plunked Prince Fielder in their first Spring Training game. One does have to wonder, however, whether hitting a 300-lb. man in the buttocks with an 83 mph fastball can really be termed "retribution." Does he even have a bruise?
2/25 - Do you think the D-Backs have "Hyper-Athletic Celebration Insurance"? It would seem wise to protect their $79 Million worth of outfield investments against hip, chest, and shoulder bumps. I imagine Josh Byrnes standing in right-center during Spring Training warm-ups saying, "Chris, Justin, let me tell you about the classic white-guy high five."
2/20 - Lou Pinella is, like, super-psyched about how skinny Carlos Zambrano is this spring, proving once again, there's nothing worse that a fat fatist.
2/17 - "Johnny who?" - Yankees Fan on May 15th, when Granderson has a dozen homers
2/11 - The Brewers will unveil a statue of Commissioner Selig outside their ballpark this August. They have not revealed which of his talents will be on permanent display, but early odds are on denial, collusion, or stubborn defiance. Perhaps the statue could be integrated with other Milwaukee legends. He could be locking out Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, or apologizing to Hank Aaron. Usually, however, these statues highlight a sacrosanct image of player in question - Clemente throwing, Musial's follow-through, Ty Cobb sliding with his cleets in the air - so, naturally, Bud Selig should be kneeling in the center of an ownership circle jerk, arms outstretched, mouth open.
2/10 - The Society for American Baseball Research has announced that they will allow the term "sabermetrics," a homonymic tribute to their organization invented by Bill James, to "enter the public domain," a permanent addition to the American vocabulary. And the nation breathed a sigh of relief.
2/5 - Tribune Classifieds: Are you over 30? Have you had a major surgery in the last twelve months? Have age and injury limited your mobility? Do you feel like your best years are definitely behind you? If you answered "Yes!" to any one of these questions, we'd like to pay you handsomely for your services. It's our policy. Please contact Chicago Cubs, ATTN: Jim Hendry, 1060 W. Addison St., Chicago, IL 60613
2/3 - You've got to love the understated Prince Fielder, who, in response to a silly question - whether he was "worried" about going on the free agent market the same year as Pujols, Howard, and A-Gonz - replied simply, "I'm pretty good."
1/30 - Does anybody else find it odd that Jim Edmonds, a renowned douchebag who hasn't played baseball in over a year and hasn't had a healthy season since 2005, is able to find a job (making more than the league minimum!), while Barry Bonds remained unsigned? Okay, so maybe there's a stigma attached to Bonds (yeah, it's called collusion). But, what about Kenny Lofton, who hit .296 with 23 SB at the age of 40? Why wouldn't anybody give him another shot? Frank Thomas? Reggie Sanders? Gary Sheffield? Too many legendary black players have been forcefully retired in the last few years.
1/27 - Finally, there is a definition for "Old School" (and, for that matter, "New School"), provided by Jason Rosenberg.
1/26 - I'm fairly certain Jim Hendry's offseason strategy was born of an ouija board, three obsidian arrowheads, and homemade tarot cards crafted from his 2003 Upper Deck complete set.
1/25 - For some odd reason, ESPN is under the impression that the McGwire story is revelatory, so they're single-handedly keeping it alive. Most recently, they've got an interview with former steroid "purveyor," Curtis Wenzlaff, who, they imply, has some sort of expertise with which to dispute McGwire's claim that he used steroids only to reduce his risk of injury. Wenzlaff, who, if I'm not mistaken, is a construction worker, claims that McGwire's regimen not only boosts strength and speed, but somehow enhances hand-eye coordination as well, not unlike Popeye's spinach. Needless to say, the basis for his claim is, well, non-existent, and strikes me as representative of his former profession: "Sure, bro, this shit'll make baseballs look like ruby red grapefruits. You'll can hit a chickpea into the bleachers, using just your flaccid cock. No side effects, either, and it's 100% pure."
1/24 - "The fruit of the Milton Bradley deal, Carlos Silva, has been released from the active roster of his Venezuelan Winter League team, Bravos de Margarita, after posting an 8.00 ERA in four appearances. To put this into perspective, 40-year-old El Duque (Orlando Hernandez), who retired after the '07 season, has a 3.27 ERA pitching for the same franchise. Some other notables who Silva failed to out-pitch include Victor Zambrano, Antonio Alfonseca, and Kyle Farnsworth's 35-year-old brother, Jeff."
1/18/10 - ESPN intends to re-brand itself CAUCA or Channel for the Appreciation of Unparalleled Caucasian Athletes. Henceforth, all programming will be dedicated to the heroic exploits of Brett Favre, Joe Mauer, Roger Federer, Steve Nash, and Derek Jeter (for definition of "caucasian" see the Concise Gary Sheffield Dictionary). So, basically, nothing will change except the name.
1/15/10 - Does dating Rihanna increase or decrease Matt Kemp's fantasy value? As I recall, Madonna cast a not so pleasant spell over Canseco and A-Rod.
12/28 - The Giants appear close to signing Mark DeRosa. Brian Sabean's clearly feels he needs to have plenty of options to hit sixth. Cleanup? Leadoff? Fifth? Obviously, the Giants front office believes that will just work itself out naturally.
12/15 - With all the swirling rumors about Halladay, Lee, Lackey, Matsui, and Cameron, many of which appear to be founded in truth, it would be easy to overlook what appears to be the only certifiable transaction of the last 24 hours, the White Sox acquisition of Juan Pierre. Kenny Williams intelligence as a GM was once again on display as he picked up a guy who is tailored perfectly to the Sox needs and will cost them only a couple of "players to be named." The Dodgers will even pick up a portion of Pierre's remaining salary. Pierre provides much-needed speed atop the ChiSox lineup and although he's not a Gold Glover, the White Sox outfield is much better with him in center than Scott Podsednik.
12/6 - Gregg Zaun's signing assures that the Jason Kendall era is over in Milwaukee. Zaun will fill a role similar to what he had with the Orioles in '09, easing the transition of catching chores to the Brewers young tandem, Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy.
12/3 - Jim Hendry reasserted himself as the contemporary master of the "something for nothing" trade. A year after shipping Mark DeRosa to the Indians for a pair of bleacher seats and a carton of smokes, Hendry closed his eyes as Billy Beane took his young power-hitter, Jake Fox, in exchange for a middle reliever and a pair of middling prospects, neither of which will ever play a game in Chicago (mark my word!). Jake Fox, meanwhile, will see some time at first, third, and DH in Oakland, and is probably a leading candidate to hold down one of those positions full-time.
11/20 - I'm going to have more to say about Bud Selig's ludicrous revenue claims in the coming days, but for now check out Jayson Stark's thougtful column at ESPN.
11/2 - Not to discount a very heads-up play by Johnny Damon, but there has been the suggestion amongst NYC bloggers this morning that the Yankees were the first to concieve of the shift-induced double steal. Not true. I'm not sure whether this is the only or original incident, but Brandon Phillips nabbed two without so much as a hesitation in 2007 against the Nationals.
10/26 - The Cardinals, still in process of coming to terms with Tony LaRussa, have signed Mark McGwire to be their new hitting coach. For McGwire it is a foray into public life after seven years of seclusion. This possibility began gestating last winter, when McGwire began privately tutoring major-leaguers, including current Cardinals Matt Holliday and Skip Schumaker. LaRussa has long been McGwire's biggest supporter. He also has a strong relationship with his former teammate, Albert Pujols, of whom McGwire recently commented, "God gives us greatness a few times in our lifetime. Please, let's all enjoy it."
10/23 - As you watch this weekend, no matter what happens, take some time to appreciate the beautiful composition of the current Angels team. It is highly unlikely that you will get another chance. This winter Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, John Lackey, and Darren Oliver will all be free agents. All have served as "faces of the franchise" and all are quite popular both in the clubhouse and with the fans. There is very little hope, however, that the Angels will be able to keep all of them.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Fantastic Thoughts: "Fat closers make happy owners." (Closer Preview)

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