My Stars

For the first time in recent memory, the fans may actually get it right. At least for the most part. There are a few races which are going down to the wire, but very few candidates who would be an absolute embarrassment if they took the field to begin the 2007 All-Star Game in San Francisco. No Boston 2B with a .738 OPS (a.k.a. Mark Loretta '06). No New York 1B batting .239 (a.k.a. Jason Giambi '04). No New York C with 3 HR (a.k.a. Paul Lo Duca '06). We can argue whether Prince Fielder deserves to beat out Prince Albert and Derrek Lee, but the fact is he leads the league in HR and is a completely valid choice, even if he doesn't yet scare you every AB the way those other two do. We can argue whether a place should've been found in the AL outfield for Gary Sheffield, or in the NL outfield for Matt Holliday. But for the most part, we'd be parsing hairs. All these players deserve notoriety, but there are only nine positions on each side, so not everybody gets to start. The good news is, Robinson Cano isn't going to start just because he plays for the Yankees, Jeff Kent isn't going to start just because he plays for the Dodgers, and Paul Lo Duca isn't going to start just because he plays for the Mets. Here though are a few hairs I'd like to parse, just for the fun of it.

First and foremost, this is the closest thing there is to a true slight this year, there is no way that Victor Martinez should be 5th in the voting for AL Catcher. Posada is having a renaissance of a season. I-Rod and Varitek are respected leaders on excellent teams. And Mauer is the reigning AL batting champ. But V-Mart should be at the top. He leads them all in HR (14), RBI (62), and Runs (40). He's behind only Posada in AVG (.313) and OPS (903). It looks like I-Rod is going to be the fan's choice, but hopefully V-Mart will join him and Jorge in San Francisco.

Now, here's a real hair-parser. It's hard to argue with David Wright. As of May 6 (30 G) he had a 691 OPS with 2 HR and 3 SB. In the 43 games since he has a 978 OPS with 10 HR and 13 SB, as well as 29 RBI and 25 R. However, as right as Wright is, there is clearly a better option. Miguel Cabrera hasn't stolen a base (perhaps because of his much-discussed "weight issues"), but he has accumulated a 998 OPS with 91 H, 17 HR, 46 R, and 54 RBI, easily best amongst NL Third Baseman. Get Miggy with it, NL voters!

Career Years

Some of them are famous: Zollo Versalles (1965), Terry Pendleton (1991), Steve Stone (1980). Others, infamous: Brady Anderson (1996), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Adrian Beltre (2004). But, while they rarely result in MVPs and Cy Youngs - like the former trio - there are instances every year, a solidly mediocre major league veteran turns in a performance well above his career averages, in most cases, never again to be duplicated. They're almost impossible to predict, especially prior to the start of a season. And, even a few weeks in, there's no reason to believe that the fast starters won't revert back to their normal selves by midseason. Nonetheless, here's a few candidates to be this year's version of Mark DeRosa (2006) or Aaron Small (2005).

Jason Marquis - SP - Chicago Cubs

This winter I got a call from an old friend in St. Louis, a diehard Cards fan, who just wanted to let me know that he had been a little worried about all the Cubs' offseason acquisitions, until they signed Jason Marquis. He said, "You know, the guy that didn't even make the Cardinals postseason roster." Six weeks into the season, I haven't heard from him. The Cardinals pitching staff is depending on continued brilliance from Braden Looper, while Marquis is 5-1 with the third best ERA (1.70) in all of baseball. While it is too early to call Marquis a Cy Young candidate, it is worth noting that his league worst ERA in 2006 was largely due to a few truly putrid starts in which he gave up 10 or more runs. He did manage to win 14 games nonetheless, and he won in the teens for St. Louis three years in a row. There is an important rub to take into consideration: in his seven year career, Marquis is 38-22 in April, May, and June, but 23-31 in July, August, and September.

Kyle Lohse - SP - Cincinnati Reds

His record is 1-3, but it's got nothing to do with him. His 3.21 ERA is more 1 1/2 runs below his career mark. His 32-9 K/BB ratio is among the best in baseball, and he's only given up 4 HR, despite making most of his starts so far at some of the league's best launching pads (Cincinnati, Houston, & Chicago). Lohse has been a durable back-of-the-rotation starter throughout his carreer (mostly in Minnesota), making 30 starts in four consecutive seasons before last year (he was only prevented from it in 2006 by a prolonged demotion to the bullpen before being traded to the Reds), but he has never flashed the wicked bite on his breaking pitch and the movement on his fastball that has him looking like an elite pitcher in his first seven starts. The Reds will start scoring some runs for him eventually, so if he keeps throwing like he has been, he'll still have an outside chance at fifteen wins. There is reason to believe he might keep this up, considering Lohse generally gets better as the season progresses.

Tim Wakefield - SP - Boston Red Sox

Just a few things to throw out there. When Charlie Hough was 40, he won 15 games, pitched 252 innings, and had a 3.32 ERA. When Tom Candiotti was 40, he won 11 games, pitched 201 innings, and had a 4.84 ERA. When Phil Niekro was 40, he won 21 games, pitched 352 innings, and had a 3.39 ERA. When Joe Niekro was 40, he won 11 games, pitched 225 innings, and had a 3.83 ERA. In all honesty, who can predict what a knuckleball is going to do?

Little Mysteries

Every manager makes mistakes. But Grady Little is the only manager I know of who's been fired for one bad move. Little's decision to leave Pedro in just a bit too long in the 2003 ALCS has gone down in history as the epitome of boneheaded mishandling of a pitching staff. But, at the time, I remember thinking that it would've been very difficult for me to take tht ball from one of the games greatest pitchers and hand it to "Wandering" Mike Timlin or B. Y. "Word Series Meltdown" Kim. Boston's firing of Little for that one mistake seemed even more unjust to me when he became manager of the Dodgers last season and I had the opportunity to become very familiar with Little's managing style. Little handles matchups very effectively. He's not afraid to bench veterans when the situation dictates. He gets great performances from mediocre players like Marlon Anderson, Ramon Martinez, and Wilson Valdez by finding situations for them to suceed, much like Tony LaRussa. He seems to get more than the average number of clutch performances, both at the plate and on the mound. Like last night, when he pinch-hit Olmedo Saenz for Luiz Gonzalez and Saenz knocked a game-winning single with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. But Little has one strange, and very glaring weakness, which also showed itself in last night's game. When he makes a mistake, it's a doozy, one that has an effect (like the Pedro fiasco) that goes well beyond a single game. In the 6th inning, with the Dodgers up 1-0, Little pinch-hit Nomar Garciaparra for starting pitcher Brad Penny, with 1 out and men on 1st and 2nd. Penny had thrown only 95 pitches, allowing only three hits and, obviously, zero runs. He certainly had enough for at least one more inning. The choice would seem like something of a toss up were in not for a few other considerations. The Dodgers were only two games removed from a 17-inning extravaganza with the Padres which had obviously reaked havoc on the bullpen, such that both Derek Lowe and Brett Tomko had been on call for the D-Backs series. Getting a long, strong outing from on of their top starters was of paramount importance, and every indication was that Penny was ready to give it to them. Additionally, the pinch-hitter, seemingly an obvious choice since Garciaparra is one of the Dodgers best, was sitting out for a reason. He was 0-for-his career against D-Backs' starter, Livan Hernandez. Little had wisely chosen this game to rest his (supposedly brittle) star first baseman. Garciaparra (only 19 career pinch-hitting appearances) was clearly uncomfortable in his AB, but Hernandez, struggling with his control, managed to walk him anyway. Nonetheless, the Dodgers couldn't squeak a run out of the bases loaded opportunity, as Furcal and Pierre both popped up. Sure enough, the D-Backs tied it up the next inning and it looked as though the Dodgers could be headed into another extra-innings marathon with an already depleted bullpen. Thankfully, pinch-hitter extraordinaire, Olmedo Seanz, saved his manager from a mistake which could've put the Dodgers at a disadvantage for weeks to come. Still, one has to wonder, in a situation like this, what is Little thinking?

Soulful Seasons (Week 4)

Jimmy Rollins - SS - Philadelphia Phillies

Rollins hit a couple more bombs this week and continued to be among the few bright spots on the Phillies. He talked the talk in the offseason, now he's walking the walk. Unfortunately, he can't do it alone. Rollins still leads the NL in home runs, making John Kruk's suggestion that Philadelphia move him into the cleanup spot seem progressively more deft. It certainly makes as much sense to me as putting Brett Myers in the bullpen.

B. J. Upton - 2B - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

He made the team largely because of Jorge Cantu's bad attitude and stayed around largely because of Akinori Iwamuru's injury, but B. J. Upton is quietly on pace for a 30/30 season. He's hit 3 HR and driven in 9 in the past week, and is now batting .365 on the year, good for third in the AL behind Vladimir Guerrero and Joe Mauer. He's 4th in OPS and tied for 8th in extra-base hits. He's only drawn six walks so far, while striking out 27 times, which suggests that teams will soon start making him chase, but Upton did show the ability to be selective in the minors, so he will probably adjust quicker than most rookies. Along with his teammate, Elijah Dukes, Upton looks to challenge Dice-K for Rookie of the Year honors.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

He's headed back to Triple-A with Cliff Lee returning to the Indians rotation. But the 23-year-old Carmona, who was brutalized during a brief run as Cleveland's closer last season, looked very comfortable as a major league starter. He averaged 7 1/3 innings in his last three starts, never allowing more than two earned runs, and netting a pair of Ws. Even with his rough first outing, he finished his cup of coffee with a 3.76 ERA. I've applauded Cleveland's depth in the past and Carmona is further proof that the Indians will be able to stay afloat in the extremely competitive A. L. Central even if they suffer a few key injuries. I imagine Carmona could will be back in the rotation before the end of the season, perhaps as a permanent replacement for Paul Byrd.

Dan Haren - SP - Oakland Athletics

The talk about Oakland's rotation always centers around Rich Harden - who, granted, is an Ace when he actually takes the mound - but Oakland's pitching succes this year, like last year, depends upon the durability and reliability of Dan Haren. He's won three straight starts since Harden hit the DL again, going 7+ innings every time, and has a nasty 1.60 ERA for the season. If Oakland hangs around in the AL West it will be largely because of their real Ace, Dan Haren.

The Most Soulful Shot of the Season?

Gary Sheffield has been off to a slow start, like many of his Tigers teammates, but they've somehow managed to remain well above .500 and within a couple games of the division-leading Indians. If you want to see the picture-perfect way to break out of a slump and pick up your team, head over to ESPN or mlb.com, or whatever your favorite baseball video archive, and check out Sheffield's game-winning blast on Monday night. Sheffield was pegged by Daniel Cabrera for the second time in as many games earlier in the evening, clearly as a response to Bonderman throwing at Miguel Tejada. The benches cleared, but there were no fisticuffs and no ejections. Sheffield quietly headed down to first after his beaning. Then, in the fifth, with a man on, and the game tied at three, Sheffield murdered a Cabrera fastball. Sheffield's swing is always violent and his batspeed is infamous, but he put a little something extra into this one, as though he wanted something to admire as he walked leisurely towards first base. After the game he quoted Dave Parker, "When you hit one like that, you deserve a look."

The Usual Suspects

The "Rebel Rays" :

B. J. Upton - 2B
Delmon Young - RF
Elijah Dukes - CF

A year ago, the news out of Raliegh-Durham was that B. J. Upton was a drunk driver, Delmon Young was an aggressive bat-tossing hothead, and Elijah Dukes was a pothead thug. Put them together with tweeker Josh Hamilton, another first-rounder coming to terms with the Cougar Mellencamp credo - "I fight authority, but authority always wins." - and the Devil Rays seemed to have accumulated a quartet of future middle of the order hitters in the North Carolina Prison League. Many assumed by the end of last season that Dukes and Hamilton were already out of baseball for good, while Upton and Young were likely to be delayed in their big league appearances by the infamous "makeup" issues.

Turns out, on opening day 2007, all four were major-league starters. Josh Hamilton's emergence as Rule 5 draftee turned 3-hole hitter in Cincinnati has been among the most followed stories of the young season, but the dominance of the trio of young Rays - none of them older than 22 - has gone largely overlooked. The Devil Rays have a better record than the Yankees after Carl Crawford's grand slam lifted them over New York last night, and they've beat some of the league's best pitchers in the early going, including Johan Santana, thanks to the high-octane offense which has been bolstered by Dukes, Young, and Upton. The trio is batting .277 with 7 HR, 34 R, 11 2B, and 29 RBIs. Granted, A-Rod's been worth about as much as the three of them, but for the Devil Rays to be getting this type of production from players not named Carl Crawford is an indication of great things to come. If Tampa can keep them happy, healthy, and honest into their mid-20s, they will remind us of controversial young threesomes turned superstars like Bonds, Bonilla, and Bell in Pittsburgh; Belle, Baerga, and Ramirez in Cleveland; and Jones, Jones, and Jordan in Atlanta.

Soulful Seasons (Week 3)

Russell Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

After outpeforming monsters like Joe Mauer and Brian McCann in the first two weeks, including 8 RBI, 9 R, and 4 SB during his 9-game hitting streak, Martin began to see a steady diet of breaking balls in week 3, inducing a modest 10 AB slump. Of course, there's possibly no better way to get the monkey off your back like a 10th inning walk-off grand salami. Just ask A-Rod.

Josh Hamilton - CF - Cincinnati Reds

Hamilton responded to winning a starting job in Cincinnati by hitting 3 HR in 4 games, driving in 6, and scoring 6.

Mike Lowell - 3B - Boston Red Sox

He hit a pair of bombs in the Sunday night game against the Yankees, batted .417 with 5 R and 5 RBI for the series, extended his hit streak to 9 games, and continued to grey his own beard with a litany of game-changing web gems. Because the league is so deep with superb talent at 3B, Lowell's solid play since joining Boston in 2006 as nothing more than a contract dump in the Josh Beckett deal has gone largely unnoticed. Last year he finished tied with Gold Glove winner, Eric Chavez, in fielding percentage, while finishing with a better Range Factor and Zone Rating in over 100 more innings and over 70 more chances. He made only 6 errors all year. He also finished in the top 10 among three baggers in OPS, slugging, average, hits, and doubles. He's already got 14 RBIs in 2007. And, perhaps especially important for somebody who bats behind on-base machines Big Papi, Manny, and J. D. Drew, Lowell has struck out only two times in 70 plate appearances.

Barry & Barry - San Francisco Giants
The much-maligned Barry "Baked" Zito had some hard luck in his first two starts of the year, fueling the inevitable $100 million dollar man publicity backlash. This week he (and the other Barry) headlined a 7-1 run by the Giants to get back above .500 for the season, after many pundits had them drawing dead after their poor start. Zito went 2-0 over 13 1/3 IP, allowing only 7 hits and no runs. Bonds had a hit in every game this week, including 3 HR, one of which provided the only scoring in Zito's 1-0 win over the D-Backs. For those who spurned Bonds' resigning in the offseason and predicted that he would struggle to pass Aaron this year, I would like to draw your attention to his 1270 OPS, second only to A-Rod, and his 6 HR, tied for 4th in the league. Now if only the Giants could trade Pedro Feliz for, say, Ryan Howard.

Bad Case of Feliz

Dear Brian Sabean -

I am writing on behalf of a dear friend. He is a lifelong fan of the Giants and a good-natured soft-hearted prototypical San Franciscan who wishes nothing but the best for his fellow man and, indeed, all living things. Unfortunately, recently he has been poorly. He is weak and does not leave the house. I cannot tell if he is sick or whether he despairs. If he is ill, I do not know the cause. All I can tell you is that the last time I saw him well we were watching the Giants. We were enjoying the wonderful experience of baseball and the light-hearted exchange of observations which so often accompanies it. Such observations, perhaps, should never be taken wholly seriously. For, after all, even grizzled managers and sagacious general managers like yourself, who have dedicated their whole lives to understanding the game, are challenged daily to interpret its intricacies. I regret, I made a passing comment. It was not intended to hurt. But it was made with the sophomoric boldness and carelessness of an amateur armchair quarterback. I claimed, offhandedly, that there was no worse everyday player in all of major league baseball than Giants third baseman Pedro Feliz. At first, my gentle friend took it as it was intended, as a facetious hyperbole. Morover, mainly for sport, he set about attempting to prove its outrageous inaccuracy. But as he fell deeper and deeper into his research he became solemn, and belligerent. He called me cruel, callous, and coy. Possessing nothing but the fondest feeling towards all who wear the sacred Giants uniform, he had never even considered that the team taking the field might be composed of anything less than the very best possible combination of players available to the organization. The Giants, he felt assured, would not stand for it. Certainly, they would not always win, but they would always field the best talent that was available to them.

As it turned out, however, it was difficult to believe that Pedro Feliz was anybody's best option. Superficial indications suggested that Feliz was a moderate defensive third baseman, with decent power (22 HR), and the ability to drive in runs (98 RBI). But a closer evaluation of his statistics revealed a frightening picture. In 2006, of the 160 players qualifying for the batting title, Feliz finished 155th. But, of course, many solid run-producers, like Adam Dunn, Eric Chavez, and Troy Glaus, also finished with very low batting averages. Any semi-knowledgeable 21st Century fan knew the there were many better indicators of a players worth. Unfortunately, such statistics did not provide any better evidence of Feliz' value. In OBP, he finished 157th, only surpassing three light-hitting shortstops, none of whom still had starting jobs in 2007. In OPS, he finished 147th, and what was worst, dead last among starting thrid basemen in both categories. It was a depressing picture, but my friend, ever the optimist, insisted that 2006 must have been an unusually bad year. As it turned out, however, in 2005 Feliz finished 146th out of 148 qualifying players in OBP, and 123rd in OPS. In 2004, 154/161 and 92/161. My friend began to wonder, for all of those times he could remember Feliz driving home a run, how many times had his heroes - Bonds, Vizquel, Alou, and Durham - been stranded on the basepathes or mowed down as part of a double-play, the only category in which Feliz had finished in the top 25 in the MLB in each of the last three seasons. What was going on? How could a player who had performed so badly for so long, and was now well into his thirties, with not the slightest hope of sudden drastic improvement, still be the Giants best option at a position which was generally expected to produce offensively? Forlorn and exhausted, he conceded. Feliz was the worst everyday player in baseball. It was true. And, worse yet, he found that Feliz was being paid over $5 million in 2007, as much as Chad Tracy, David Wright, Garrett Atkins, and Ryan Zimmerman - far superior third basemen all - combined. He shut off the television broadcast. He laid his head in his hands. He asked me to leave.

Since then, he has not left his home. I cannot conclude with certainty that his current condition is directly related to Pedro Feliz, but I cannot help but think that he may feel some relief, show some signs of recovery, if only you can provide an explanation as to why Feliz remains in the Giants lineup on a daily basis. I know, being ever faithful, that he believes that there must be a logical beyond what we can conceive of, and if you could find it in your heart to articulate it to a layman and save my dear friend, Mr. Sabean, I would be forever in your debt.

Sincerely,

Dr. Hippeaux C. Bold

The Wrigley Void

In honor of the first major league appearance of Chicago Cubs Blue Chipper, Felix Pie, riddle me this: When was the last time the Cubs had a starting center fielder who finished the year with an OBP over .335?

That would be 1996, when Brian McRae posted a .360 OBP and scored 111 times from the leadoff spot.

I'm as excited as anybody about Pie's display today. A clutch RBI double and a beautiful outfield assist to home plate - not a bad way to start a career. But, hmmmm...highly anticipated center field prospect with blazing speed and incredible defensive ability, but lingering plate discipline and contact issues, that doesn't sound at all like Corey Patterson...or Gary Matthews Jr...or Jerome Walton.

Soulful Seasons (Jackie Robinson Edition)

I'm hesitant to say it, but Bud Selig has solidified a pretty impressive legacy. The Wild Card has been wildly successful. Interleague play still has some kinks, but it has created some exciting midseason dramas. The competition has rarely been more balanced. Money is rolling in. A repeat of the '94 strike has been avoided. And, now, perhaps his greatest achievement, an institutional enshrining of Jackie Robinson, whose number (#42) Selig retired a decade ago. Jackie Robinson Day - it's officially my favorite holiday. This year, the holiday's inauguration was marked by a lavish ceremony preceding the Sunday night game at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles, as well as the opportunity for any player in the league to wear #42, which for most has not been available during their careers. Several games were postponed due to the Atlantic noreaster, but these are Sunday's most soulful performances featuring #42. And, by the way, Selig made it possible for anybody to choose to wear #42, so anybody who chose not to, well...that's just abominable, criminal even. For today at least, they haven't even the potential for soulfulness.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Clevland Indians

It was Sabathia who early this season called the declining number of African American ballplayers a "crisis," blamed the MLB for pourly scouting in urban neighborhoods, and commentated that his Oakland-based primarily black high school team could've beat his first minor league club. Sabathia backed up bold words with a fast start. And on Jackie Robinson Day he threw 8 innings against a potent White Sox lineup, fanning 10 and giving up only 5 hits and one run, which was driven in by another #42, Jermaine Dye.

Rich Harden - SP - Oakland Athletics

Harden was one of very few caucasian players who chose to wear #42 (other than those on teams which wore it unanimously), and what better way to celebrate Jackie Robinson than throwing six dominant innings against the evil, evil Yankees. His bullpen might've found a way to lose the game nonetheless were it not for the heroics of Marcus "Pee Wee" Scuturo.

Tony Clark - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks

The big, soft-spoken Clark provides one of the few veteran presences on the Baby Backs, but he rarely starts anymore, since the emergence of Conor Jackson. But on Jackie Robinson Day, manager Bob Melvin had a good feeling about the gentle giant. Clark blasted a pair of home runs, driving in three, and lifting the D-Backs past the Rockies, who were shamefully lacking in #42's.

Tony LaRussa - Manager - St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis game against the Brewers was the only which featured all 50 players, plus coaching staffs, dawning Jackie's numbers, which is probably how it should have gone down everywhere. If you think LaRussa, one of the great students of baseball history, didn't have anything to do with the decision, you're denser than Tim McCarver. Milwaukee manager Ned Yost is something of a LaRussa mentee, who I'm sure wouldn't have hesitated to comply with Tony's soft Sicilian suggestions. Tony felt it was important to honor Robinson, and when Tony thinks something is especially important, Prince Albert likes to hit two home runs.

Dueling Cy Candidates

Today Roy Halladay pitched a 10-inning complete game at home against the Tigers. It took him only 107 pitches. Through 9 innings he was matched pitch for pitch by Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman, who needed only 96 pitches for what would have normally been a dominant complete game victory. Bonderman gave up a homer to Alex Rios on his first pitch. Halladay allowed one to Magglio Ordonez in the 2nd. From the 3rd to the bottom half of the 10th, when Fernando Rodney relieved Bonderman, only four runners made it as far as second base. Each pitcher allowed six hits, and zero walks.

The key here is that Bonderman seemed to be feeding off of the elder Halladay, who demonstrates as much mound poise as any pitcher in baseball. Between them they only struck out six hitters (2 for Halladay, 4 for Bonderman). In 2006 Bonderman averaged 8.5 K/9IP, which most pundits will tell you is a great sign of his effectiveness. But Halladay won more games and pitched more innings with an ERA almost a run lower than Bonderman's, despite averaging only 5.4 K/9IP. Both Halladay and Bonderman display excellent control, rarely giving up free passes, but while Halladay lets his defense do most of the work, one of Bonderman's only weaknesses has been that he is often apparently seeking the K. This can lead to tiring innings, even when no damage is done, and explains why Halladay pitched the 7th in 24/32 (75%) starts, while Bonderman made it that far only 18/34 (53%) times. If Bonderman was truly emulating Halladay, and continues to do so, this will be the season that he pitches like the top-flight ace he has long been predicted to become.

Although the Cy Young discussion in the American League must start with Johan Santana, these two have to be considered among the frontrunners in the second tier (yes, Santana has the first tier to himself, at least for now). Halladay finished 3rd last season (as well as winning a Cy in 2003), and is pitching in front of the best lineup of his career. Bonderman is a very experienced 24-year-old, with 127 career starts and a World Series appearance already, also pitching in front of one of the leagues strongest offenses (and a stellar defense).

Bold Observations (Young Guns - Tier Deux)

Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Matt Cain are going to get plenty of attention, as well they should. But I'd like to draw your attention to three young arms that for whatever reason might be coming in under the radar early in the 2007 season.

Jeremy Sowers (24) - SP - Cleveland Indians

Sowers rarely raises the radar gun above 90 mph, but he's quietly gotten off to a stellar start, going 13 innings while only allowing 3 earned runs against two relatively strong offensive teams, the Angels and the White Sox. This after going 7-4 with a 3.57 in the very tough AL Central during 14 rookie starts in 2006. Sowers is never going to overpower a team the way Hernandez and Cain did in their dominant outings this week, but he has a nasty slider, movement on all his pitches, and he's not afraid to throw inside. The thing I like most about him is that when he gets into a difficult situation he maintains his poise better than the overpowering peers, like a pitcher with much more experience. He doesn't have the stuff to be a young Greg Maddux, but he could be an old Greg Maddux at a young age, and 14-16 wins a season year after year after year isn't unrealistic starting this season on a strong Indians team.

Mike Maroth (29) - SP - Detroit Tigers

True, he's not exactly young anymore, but he's just coming into his prime without the spotlight that following fellow 20 game loser Jeremy Bonderman. Before his injury last season he was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and six quality starts and now's he's off to a 2-0 start (although he's had some nice run support to help him on his way). In the very tight AL Central, many pundits were prepared to write off the Tigers when they lost Kenny Rogers. Maroth will more than make up for Rogers absence and Detroit has plenty of young arms to slide into the fifth slot.

Clay Hensley (26) - SP - San Diego Padres

Everywhere I turned this spring people were talking about the depth of the Padres rotation. "Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, David Wells..." They would always trail off, as if they couldn't remember who the fifth starter was, or didn't think it mattered. Nobody seems to remember that Hensley threw quality starts in seven of his last nine outings in 2006. He lowered his ERA from 4.19 to 3.71 over that span. He has had a couple rough outings to begin this season, but the same thing happened to him early last year and it is a common problem for sinker ballers. Wang and Lowe both struggled in their first two outings last season. Hensley is entering his first full season as a starter in a park that's more or less designed for him, with improved infield defense working behind him, and probably slightly better offense supporting him. He's primed.

Soulful Seasons (Week 1)

Elijah Dukes - CF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Six months ago, nobody, including Dukes, was willing to bet that he had any future in professional ball. Now he's hit homers in each of his first two games, drawn a few walks, and looks to solidify is slot in the Devil Rays lineup as well as among the Rookie of the Year frontrunners.


Vladimir Guerrero - RF - Los Angeles Angels

Vlad the Destroyer (.440 - 3 HR - 10 RBI) quickly despelled any rumors that he was hiding a knee injury by co-winning the season's first AL Player of the Week Award. Especially soulful was the display against Texas on Tuesday. He was facing Vicente Padilla who plunked him last season to start one of the 2006's most heated brawls. Padilla continued to throw up and in to the Destroyer. He responded by going 4-for-4 with a HR, 3 RBI, and more than a few withering stares.

Alex Rodriguez - 3B - New York Yankees

A-Rod's dominant opening week would be much more soulful if it wasn't so inevitable. The New York press corps will find several moderately clever ways of pointing out that it's April.

Russell Coltrane Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

Trane batted better than .300 with a double, a dinger, a pair of RBIs, and 4 runs scored. He has been a hit machine for the Dodgers, batting second while Rafeal Furcal recovers from a hamstring injury. Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra have had typically slow starts, so Martin's presence atop the lineup has been especially helpful in for Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez, both of whom also had strong opening weeks. Perhaps most importantly, Martin has looked spectacular on defense. The Brewers and Giants both tested Martin's arm, which helped Russell to a major league-leading 4 men caught-stealing (as opposed to 2 successful) through 7 games.

Dontrelle Willis & Jake Peavy - SP - Florida Marlins & San Diego Padres

Taking a page out of the David Wells playbook, these pitchers drew attention away from their off-the-field issues.

Willis : 12 IP, 12 K, 4 ER, 2 W
Peavy : 13 IP, 9 K, 1 ER, 1 W

Pretty good numbers for drunk drivers.

Bold Observations

Bonds stole a base after singling in his first at bat of the season.

• I spent some time in New York in the week leading up to the season, and although I will generally refrain from discussing the oft-chartered waters of the Hudson River between Queens and the Bronx, I will say this much. For all those who believed that Mussina's new contract, the reaquisition of Andy Pettitte, and the signing of Kei Igawa marked the end of the starting pitching inconsistencies that have been the Yankees major - perhaps only - weakness for the past three seasons, need look no further than the Bombers opening day starter to see that they've been had. Don't get me wrong, Carl Pavano may turn in a fine season if he's finally happy and healthy, but he's not exactly Curt Schilling...or Dice-K...or Josh Beckett. You get the picture.

• As I've already ranted about on several occasions, in the age of "competitive balance," bet on depth. I love the Dodgers depth. Had they signed Luis Gonzalez to regularly spell and mentor their trough of young outfielders - Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko, etc. - I would've applauded it. Instead they're using him as the everday left fielder and platooning Ethier and Kemp. Already, today, I saw a looping gapper that would've be comfortably caught by either of the speedy, strong-armed, athletic, young alternatives, drop in front of Gonzalez running at a dead sprint and roll to wall for a double (Estrada eventually scored) and Bill Hall turned a long single into a double because he had no fear of Gonzalez' arm. It's important to note, the Dodgers went on to lose by one run. These are scenes that I will surely get used to and won't sting as much if Gonzalez starts hitting, but so far...well, he's 0-7 with 4 men left on base.

• Remember Russell Coltrane Martin from my Soulful Sleepers post. He was blanked by Ben Sheets yesterday, along with about everybody else. Today, he went 3-for-5 with a single, a double, a home run, two RBI, two runs scored, and an excellent run-saving, plate-blocking tag to foil a double steal.

• A week ago I predicted that Detroit would not be so lucky as to get 30 starts from four or more pitchers this season. A few days later Kenny Rogers went on the DL. Somewhat surprisingly, Jim Leyland chose 29-year-old journeyman Chad Durbin, who only pitched 6 innings in the majors last year, all out of the bullpen, and has gone 13-26 with a 6.15 ERA over his career as a starter. Durbin is not the only or - it would appear from our perspective - the best option, but clearly Leyland sees something he likes. If Durbin struggles in his first couple starts look for Zach Minor or Wil Ledezma to see action. If Rogers doesn't appear to be close to coming back, or another starter goes down, freeing up a rotation slot for the long haul, we'll likely see the emergence of Andrew Miller, who could be this year's version of Jared Weaver, Jeremy Sowers, or Rich Hill.

• My newest Soulful Sleeper is Elijah Dukes. For those of you who don't know about Dukes, he's the most controversial angry black baller since Gary Sheffield. His father is a murderer. He was arrested for assault for the first time when he was 13. He served three lengthy suspensions as a Devil Rays minor leaguer. He was arrested for possession of marijuana a year ago. But, he most resembles Sheffield in his tremendous bat speed and selective batter's eye, well better than the norm for a 22-year-old with tremendous talent, who could've coasted on his tools. Unlike fellow angry black Devil Rays, B. J. Upton and Delmon Young, Dukes is a very mature product on the field. Besides walking nearly as often as he strikes out, he plays excellent center field defense, steals bases at a better than 2-to-1 clip, and hits to all fields. He's prepared to make an impact immediately, as evidenced by his home run on opening day against the Yankees.
  

Bold Predictions - Opening Day

It's the cure for what ails you. Whether it's a long winter of depression, the stress of tax season, or recent heartbreak, baseball is the cure. And opening day baseball, especially. If I got chills after every Vladimir Guerrero RBI double, I'd be spending all summer under a blanket. But I get 'em on opening day.

There's a lot to look forward to this season. Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield are all within striking distance of 500 HRs. Sammy Sosa's looking for 600. And Barry Bonds, well, he may not get to 800 this season, but I bet there'll still be some fanfare following him. Randy Johnson needs 20 wins for 300. Tom Glavine needs 10. Craig Biggio needs 70 hits for 3000. Bonds need 159 (he hasn't had that many in a season since 1998).

Besides the statistical milestones, we could be opening one of the most competitive seasons since the invention of the wild card. Revenue sharing, unparalled revenue streams, and increasingly innovative general managers have contributed to creating that exciting culture of "competitive balance" that Bud Selig fantasized about while his Milwaukee Brewers were suffering a dozen straight losing seasons at the end of his tenure as owner. This year the Brewers are among the popular choices to win the NL Central, but then, so are the Cardinals, the Cubs, the Astros, and the Reds. And, I would argue at least, making an argument for the youthful Pirates is not much harder. Over at ESPN, 22 of 30 MLB teams got at least one sucker to pick them for a postseason berth from their panel of 18 experts. At USAToday even the Rockies and the Devil Rays got some support. Every division has to be considered at least a three horse race, and I expect to see some which will have four or more teams neck and neck into the stretch. It makes predictions difficult, but I'll make some anyway.

NL East:
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Marlins
4. Braves
5. Nationals

NL Central:
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
3. Cardinals
4. Pirates
5. Reds
6. Astros

NL West:

1. Dodgers
2. Giants (WC)
3. Padres
4. Diamondbacks
5. Rockies

AL East:
1. Red Sox
2. Blue Jays
3. Yankees
4. Devil Rays
5. Orioles

AL Central:
1. Tigers
2. Indians (WC)
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals

AL West:

1. Angels
2. Athletics
3. Mariners
4. Rangers

Division Series:
Dodgers over Mets
Giants over Cubs

Tigers over Angels
Red Sox over Indians

Championship Series:
Dodgers over Giants
Tigers over Red Sox

World Series:
Tigers over Dodgers

NL MVP - Derrek Lee
NL Cy Young - Barry Zito
NL ROY - Ryan Braun
NL Manager - Bruce Bochy

AL MVP - David Ortiz
AL Cy Young - C. C. Sabathia
AL ROY - Elijah Dukes
AL Manager - Jim Leyland

Who's Brent Clevlen?

He's the reason the Detroit Tigers are the best team in baseball.


Let me explain.


Sometime around the beginning of February The Sporting News publishes the first of dozens of baseball preview magazines. While every one is slightly different - which is why I must own them all - they all provide a variety of preseason predictions and projections. And, for the hopelessly Emersonian among us who cannot believe in any conclusions we do not come to ourselves, they provide the likely opening day starting lineups and rotations for each of the thirty franchises. It's easy to see by looking at the murderers row that is the Yankees starting nine that they're the best team in the league, right? They very well may prove to be. But, last year's projected starters for the Yankees included Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui, Shawn Chacon, and Aaron Small. Sheffield & Matsui totaled less than 350 ABs between them and only 40 of the Yankees' 1622 runs produced (Runs Produced = [R+RBI] - HR). Aaron Small made 3 starts, went 0-3 with an 8.46 ERA, and never made another appearance. Chacon made 11 starts, went 5-3 with a 7.00 ERA, and was dealt to the Pirates for Craig Wilson. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera produced 118 runs, Bernie Williams another 114, and Jaret Wright went 11-7 with a 4.49 ERA. True, the Yankees also compensated for their injury bug by trading money for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle. Had you not Cashman's financial resources, would you have hung a Sorry. sign in front of the stadium and given up on the season?

Yes, if you were the Cubs. On April 19 they were 9-5 when they lost Derreck Lee to a freak wrist injury much like Hideki Matsui's, in the following two months they replaced their top hitter (1080 OPS in 2005) primarily with a combination of Neifi Perez (609 OPS) and John Mabry (607 OPS). They went 19-41. Season over. Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, the Dodgers lost two of their best hitters, Nomar Garciaparra (867 OPS) and Jeff Kent (862 OPS), for extended periods. They went 24-16 without Garciaparra, 27-20 without Kent, and survived their downtime to make a late season run at a wildcard berth, primarily because their primary replacements were James Loney (901 OPS) and Willy Aybar (770 OPS). Because of the litany of injuries throughout the year, eighteen players got a hundred or more ABs for the Dodgers in 2006, as compared to 15 for the Cubs, and only one of them (Julio Lugo) finished with an OPS under 700.

So, getting back to Brent Clevlen. Brent Clevlen is, like James Loney and Willy Aybar, a top tier prospect, an outfielder in the Tigers organization. In a cup of coffee callup last season he hit 3 homers, accumulated 3 outfield assists, and had a 958 OPS in 39 ABs. Could he keep up that pace over the course of a season? Definitely not. Witness his 15 strikeouts. But could he give the Tigers a few dozen good ABs over the course of a couple of weeks? Quite certainly.

The sports cliche is that "you're only as good as the last player on your bench." In baseball, it extends all the way to the bottom of the 40 man roster. In extremely tight divisional races, like the ones we're likely to see this year in the NL West and the AL Central, the projected lineups and rotations published during the preseason aren't satisfactory evidence of a teams ability to compete over the 162 game stretch. Of the eight teams in the postseason last year, none had more than five position players who made it into 140 games. Only the Tigers and Twins were lucky enough to have five. And only the Tigers had four pitchers who made 30 starts. The Tigers know how lucky they were. And, this season, they bring superior depth. Brent Cleven isn't going to get a call if Gary Sheffield or Magglio Ordonez goes down. That call will go to Marcus Thames - he of the 26 home runs and 882 OPS in 2006. He may not even get the call if Gary Sheffield & Magglio Ordonez go down. Not with Chris Shelton (16 HR, 806 OPS in 373 AB) and Omar Infante (735 OPS in 224 ABs) already traveling with the team. On the pitching side Jim Leyland can call upon Zach Miner, Wil Ledezma, and Andrew Miller to give him quality starts, with Miner and Ledezma capable swingmen.

Putting talent aside - because all four contenders in the AL Central are rife with talent - this is why I believe the race for the divisional crown (and perhaps the wild card) will come down to the Tigers and Indians. While Minnesota and Chicago have struggled to fill out their rotations to begin the season, Cleveland and Detroit have no need to rush players dealing with injuries (Cliff Lee) or high end prospects (Andrew Miller). While there competitors make difficult choices between mediocre options (Rondell White or Lew Ford for LF in Minnesota; Darin Erstad or Brian Anderson for CF in Chicago), Cleveland has five outfielders spending significant time on the bench (David Dellucci, Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Michaels, Trot Nixon, and Casey Blake) any one of whom could be a everyday starter on many teams, including the Twins and the White Sox.

Meanwhile, much has been made of the Cubs offseason spending spree. Have they gotten deeper? I think so, but not deep enough. In the outfield they have nice rotating parts with Jacque Jones, Matt Murton, and Cliff Floyd vying for the cornes spots, as well as Mark DeRosa getting some time there and at second and third. Ryan Theriot also appears to be an extremely valuable utilityman, perhaps in the Chone Figgins/Ryan Freel mode. And it certainly feels less harrowing this spring to learn that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are both going to stay behind for a little extended spring training, because of the presence of Wade Miller, Angel Guzman, and Sean Marshall. It could be better. But, in their division, it may be enough.

Bold Predictions - NL West

Rafeal Furcal says, "Check this blog."

Unlike the divisions which feature bottom-feeders like the Royal, Orioles, Devil Rays, Nationals, and Pirates, the NL West is composed of five teams for which contention is a legitimate argument. Some critics will scoff at the elderly Giants, others at the pitching-poor Rockies, but even those teams have enough indisputable strengths that good luck (a.k.a. bad luck for their opponents) could provide enough momentum to jetison them into the playoffs. Last year the NL West sent two teams. Both of which got knocked out in the opening round. This year the Phillies and Mets seem like Wild Card favorites standing head and shoulders above the rest of the competition in the East, but it is not altogether unlikely that two teams could again slip in from the West.

There are no easy innings in the NL West. In a style more typical of the American League, this division is defined by its depth. Their are no elite 3-4-5 combinations (although Helton-Atkins-Holliday could become one), but unlike teams that have potent hitters in the middle of the order like Houston and St. Louis, no team in the NL West has a starting position player that is a glaring offensive liability. The Rockies may be an exception, depending upon the productivity they get from Kaz Matsui at 2B and Chris Iannetta at C, but both those players have upside and Colorado makes up for it with as much potency 1-6 as any team in the division.

It's a similar story with the rotations. The Dodgers have so much depth in starting pitching that they have had to convert top prospect Chad Billingsley into a reliever, even though he went 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA during the stretch run in 2006. The Diamondbacks have a quartet of perennial 200-inning horses, and five of the last eight Cy Young awards. The young, fast lineup behind them will have to prove that they are major leagure ready defenders, as none of these guys - even Randy Johnson - can depend heavily on the K. The Padres added David Wells and Greg Maddux as dependable, strike-throwing veterans behind the powerful young trio of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Clay Hensley. And the Giants bost a similarly diverse rotation with two of the greatest curveballers of the past decade - Barry Zito and Matt Morris - balanced by young power arms Matt Cain and Noah Lowry.

Division Champs - Los Angeles Dodgers

In a division as tight as this one (or similarly, the AL Central), unfortunately a lot hinges on luck. Or, to put a more positive spin on it, how one prepares for and recovers from bad luck. The Dodgers are in better shape than any team in their division (and maybe the league) to replace injured contributors with at least league-average capable backups. In some cases, Dodgers fans may be praying for injuries. I have a hard time believing that James Loney isn't already a better middle of the lineup option than Luis Gonzalez. Similarly, I would rather see a Chad Billingsley at the back end of my rotation than a Brett Tomko. Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Jonathan Broxton, and Hong-Chih Kuo are all young players ready to step up when the opportunity presents itself. And with injury-prone veterans like Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny slated for key roles, there should be plenty of opportunities.

Key Player : Russell Martin - C

Be prepared to here a lot about Russell Coltrane Martin in this blog as he catupulted to the top of my most soulful players list with his impressive rookie campaign and his tear-jerking backstory. But, personal preference aside, this is the one position the Dodgers can't afford to turn over to the next in line. There was a time when Mike Lieberthal was a solid choice as an everyday starter and he's still an enviable offensive backup backstop, but even in his prime he never provided the combination of power, speed, discipline, and defense that Martin brings to the ballpark on a daily basis.

Runner-Up - San Francisco Giants

This is an unpopular choice. Besides the constant outrage towards the original Bay Area Barry, the Giants are now taking flak for paying too much for Barry Z. and generally not getting younger. I won't aim to invalidate those criticisms. Soon, very soon, San Francisco needs to shed the model which has brought it great success for over a decade and move in a new direction so they can keep filling those seats in that beautiful ballpark while Bonds is racking up a hundred or so homers in the American League. But this was not the year. The Zito signing aside, rebuilding your roster with free agents in the winter that Jason Marquis gets Jason Schmidt money, and Jason Schmidt gets Jason Giambi money is not a viable solution. The free agent crop next year includes Andruw Jones, Mark Texeira, and, possibly, Alex Rodriguez. Start with one of them.

The team they are putting on the field is mediocre at best on offense, but so was San Diego last year, and Oakland, and they both made the playoffs. The pitching staff, if the bullpen comes together, is potentially dominant. Cain & Zito are both Aces in 2007, mark my word. Zito will mow down unprepared NL hitters (and pitchers) in one of the hardest ballparks to hit home runs out of (unless you're you know who). Cain will make the next logical progressive step towards his inevitably strong-if-not-spectacular career and the Giants will get at least one unsuspected performance from either Noah Lowry, Brad Hennessy, or Jonathan Sanchez. There is too much talent there for none of them to step up. Granted, all this merely means getting a few games above .500, but in the NL, as St. Louis proved again last year, that may be enough.

Key Player : Matt Morris - SP

Obviously, the Barrys have to be the Barrys. But that goes without saying. If Bonds, Zito, or Cain goes down, that's the ballgame. See you next year. Morris is the key, because if Morris steps up the Giants posses among the best rotations in the league, that alone makes them a contender. I don't have any delusions of Morris becoming the pitcher that was in 2001 & 2002 for St. Louis. But how about the one he was in 2004 & 2005. If he can stabalize the back end of the rotation with another 200 innings and an ERA below 4.50, he has a legitimate shot at 15+ wins, and there are still some days when that 12:30 curveball is nearly unhittable (even last year he threw two complete games). He does that and it takes a hellavu lot of pressure off the newbies.

3rd Place - San Diego Padres

Yes, it's a good rotation. Yes, it could be a great rotation. But on the other side of the ball: Could it be a great lineup? No. Every starter would have to hit his ceiling for San Diego's offensive production, particularly at Petco Park, to look anything better than league average. Of course, they haven't even been that good and they've advanced to the playoffs two years in a row on the backs of their pitchers. The competition is stiffer this time around. Don't look for it to be a three-peat.

Key Player : Adrian Gonzalez - 1B

Other than Gonzalez, the sources of power in San Diego's lineup are swift-footed doubles hitters like Mike Cameron, Khalil Greene, and Brian Giles, none of which are likely to surpass 20 dingers (again, especially at Petco). Adrian Gonzalez bested all of them with 24 HR in 2006. There is no more Mike Piazza, so Gonzalez is going to have to step up and prove that he can be the big bopper position in San Diego's lineup.

4th Place - Arizona Diamondbacks

They have those four horsemen: Brandon Webb (2006 Cy Young), Randy Johnson (5 Cys, 3 Runner-Up, 280 W), Doug Davis (630 IP with Milwaukee '04-'06), and Livan Hernandez (7 straight seasons of 216+ IP). Every one of them was an opening day starter in 2006. They compiled a 57-43 record. Not bad. Take away Webb, it falls to 41-35. Still fine. Of course, Johson was pitching in front of one of the most potent lineups in baseball history, but...O. K. I digress. The problem here is not the pitching. The pitching will be reliable, possibly excellent. This is last year's Florida Marlins, but they won't get as much credit because they aren't exactly doing it on the cheap. I expect at least two or three players from the Diamondbacks to be in the running for Rookie of the Year honors, with center-fielder Chris Young the obvious favorite. It will be a fun team to watch. Besides the horsemen and the rookies, they have Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson, two potent young corner infielders coming into their prime. But, the D-Backs are still at least a year away from returning to the postseason.

Key Player : Eric Byrnes - LF

As the most veteran presence in the everyday lineup (at the ripe old age of 31), Byrnes will have to build off his own breakout year - in which, as a guest commentator during the playoffs, he coined the term "tickler" in reference to a peculiarly long soul patch - and keep his twenty-something teammates heads up during the inevitable dry stretches. We know the Big Unit isn't going to do it, but Byrnes is a suitable candidate, so long as he doesn't suffer through his own prolonged slump.

5th Place - Colorado Rockies

Last year, the pitching improved, drastically. Their 5.01 R/G was the best since their inception in 1993, by almost half a run! And, for the first time they were not among the two worst in the league. They continued to score runs even as their longtime centerpiece, Todd Helton, struggled with various ailments and offensive inconsistencies. If he returns to a moderate .320-25-90 plateau (moderate for him), the middle of the lineup will begin to rate among the best in the league, up with New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston. The pieces are falling into place in Colorado, especially if the swap of Jason Jenning to Houston for Willy Tavarez, Jason Hirsh, and Taylor Bucholz turns out to be the bonanza it appears to be. If the pitching makes another significant step forward, Colorado could be this year's Detroit Tigers.

Key Player(s) : Aaron Cook & Jason Hirsh - SP

Nobody believes that Colorado can put together a strong starting rotation, but they continue to try. The traded the winningest pitcher in franchise history for some additional pieces. Hirsh is apparently ready now and will be inserted the #4 slot, behind emerging Ace, Jeff Francis, journeyman, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Cook. Lopez and whoever the #5 is, Josh Fogg or B. Y. Kim, will undoubtedly have difficulty keeping their ERAs around 5.00. Cook and Hirsh must do considerably better than that.

Soul Sleepers

It's spring. The season is a week away. Countless fantasy baseball drafts are taking place everyday. The preparation for those drafts takes many forms, but among the most exciting aspects of it is the prediction of "sleeper" candidates. Players who can be had in the middle or late rounds of the draft, but have the potential to outperform many of the players taken ahead of them. It's easy to highlight players who are coming off of injuries or who struggled last year, there are an abundance of them. Experts dig into their statbooks to find reasons why Jose Vidro will hit for more power in AL West or Ian Snell will win 15 games in Pittsburgh. Casual players usually rely more on their instincts. They pick up sleeper candidates because they play for their favorite team or because they once saw them hit a pair of homers in a Triple-A game. Experience shows that both methods have about the same chance of succeeding. Only a handful of the sleeper candidates talked about incessantly during spring training will have a sizable impact on the season. But that impact can be dramatic. Last year Justin Morneau (AL MVP), Francisco Liriano, and Michael Cuddyer took the Twins to the playoffs and fantasy teams to the top. Today, rather than telling you which sleepers I'm drafting, I'm going to take a look at the most soulful players on my sleeper radar. Players who, were they to succeed, would provide this season with outstanding storylines.

Josh Hamilton - OF - Cincinnati Reds

Anybody who knows anybody who's struggled with addiction, particularly that especially abominable variety brought about by crystal meth, can appreciate what an unbelievable fete it would be for Hamilton to recover from years on the tweak to become an productive professional athlete. Hamilton is a former bonus-baby #1 draft pick whose biggest claim to fame so far is being the subject of an HBO documentary about drug abuse. Despite the aggressive deterioration of the body (and passion for mediocre tattoos) which accompanies meth addiction, he still makes even the most hyper-homophobic sports commentators use phrases like "perfectly sculpted baseball body." He's batting .440 in 50 spring training ABs, playing great defense, and as a Rule 5 pick he must spend the entire season in the majors or be returned to his former team, so he seems destined to be the Reds fifth oufielder. Cincinnati's current starting outfield features Ken Griffey Jr. (43% of games since 2000 spent on DL), Ryan Freel (27% of games in last two seasons spent on DL), and the uber-healthy, but defensively-challenged Adam Dunn. With Dunn likely to share some time with Scott Hatteberg at 1B, it's fairly safe to say Hamilton should get 300-400 ABs and, depending on what he does with them, maybe considerably more. He will have to compete with another talented young Reds outfielder, Chris Denorfia, which could impede his opportunities. But in the age of performance-enhancing drugs, Josh Hamilton has the potential to bring good old-fashioned performance-impairing substances back into the limelight where they belong.

Russell Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

He's the only African American starting catcher in the major leagues. His father is a Canadian street saxophonist. His middle name is Coltrane! What more can you possibly ask for? Oh, yeah, he's a pretty damn good player too. Last year, at age 23, he became only the third rookie catcher in MLB history to get to double digits in home runs and stolen bases. One of them, John Roseboro, perhaps most famous for being the object of a brutal beating by Juan Marichal, never did it again, but was a four-time all-star. The other, Benito Santiago, went on to be a five-time all-star and one of the best catchers of his era, offensively and defensively.

Sammy Sosa - DH - Texas Rangers

His .429 spring batting average, with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs, has put Sosa into the position to start the season as the Rangers everyday DH. Still, it's been three seasons since he put wood - corked or otherwise - on a breaking pitch, and the fastballs he's been pounding haven't exactly been of the John Lackey, Rich Harden, Felix Hernandez variety. But, were Slammin' Sammy, the man born to be a bobblehead, to rediscover the stroke that netted him six consecutive years of 40+ homers for the Cubs, he could really do some damage at Ameriquest Field, a ballpark that has made such luminaries as Rusty Greer, Lee Stevens, Herb Perry, and Gary Matthews Jr. into perennial 20-homer candidates. And, of course, if he joins fellow beefy-headed alleged 'roid-ragers Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield in climbing the all-time leaderboard, Bud Selig will have even more historic moments to avoid.

Kerry Wood & Mark Prior - P - Chicago Cubs

There is a tradition in Arizona every March. Bushy-tailed beat reporters gather around a dirt mound and wait for one of the Cubs highly talented homegrown pitchers to emerge from the dugout. The long and short of it is, when he sees his shadow, he promptly fall and dislocates his right shoulder and the Cubs are in for eight more months of winter. It's been winter in Chicago for three straight years and - guess what? - just announced this week, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are going to start 2007 on the disabled list. Just for a few weeks though, Lou Pinella says, just to be safe. It's a familiar song and dance. Will Rich Hill be next? Or Jeff Szmrajx#@r*za, their $8,000,000 bonus-baby from Notre Dame? If I were a successful amateur pitcher, a guaranteed 100% surefire future all-star, one thing is for certain, no amount of Tribune money could get me to sign in Chicago. You might as well lay your arm down in the middle of Michigan Ave., year after year after year.

So what's the story here? Well, it's pretty simple. If Wood becomes a dominant back-of-the-bullpen arm, joining Dempster, Howry, Eyre, and Cotts, and Prior sands the rust off his golden arm and slides into the middle of the rotation, than the Cubs cannot help but be a contender. They have too much offense not to be. In the weakest division in the weaker league, they have the opportunity to perhaps put an end to the last century-old baseball jinx. If that doesn't happen - and, of course, it never does - they might still make the playoffs, but lets put it this way. The St. Louis Cardinals, last year's World Champs, when they put together their postseason roster, they took Aaron Miles (671 OPS, 2 HR), they took Randy Flores (5.62 ERA), they took Tyler Johson (4.95 ERA), and the took Jeff Weaver (8-14, 5.76 ERA), but they left off the Cubs current #4 starter, Jason Marquis. Why? Because he had a 6.02 ERA, nearly as many walks as strikeouts, and led the league in one crucial category: Home Runs Allowed. The only thing about him that's changed: now he gets to face Albert Pujols about a dozen times. I'll take Mark Prior at 80%, Lou. How 'bout you?

Barry Bonds - LF - San Francisco Giants

Despite everything, it is difficult to make a case for the greatest player in the history of the game as a "sleeper." But, in the various drafts I've participated in and read about, Bonds has not once been picked before the 10th round. Considering his second half tear a year ago and his 5 home runs in just 30 spring ABs, that's too low. Not to mention: He's Barry-Fucking-Bonds! If you're not rooting for him to break the record and win another MVP, you're a racist. You hate baseball and America. You know why he's going to hit 30 homers and draw 150 walks? Because he feels like it. I don't care how old he is. His agent, Jeff Moorad, predicted this offseason that Barry wasn't just going to pass Hank Aaron, he was going to hit 1000 homers. I buy it. Remember Michael Jordan. Remember Miles Davis. Remember Frederick Douglass. Barry's that class of pimp. Draft his sweet ass (in the middle rounds). You won't be sorry.

Sure, despite looking sprier this spring than he has since his second divorce, Barry might only play 75% of the Giants games. And they haven't exactly built a powerhouse lineup around him (He's batting between Rich Aurilia and Ray Durham!?!), but San Francisco has the potential to surprise. They've got a solid starting rotation. They've got no shortage of "veteran presence." They've got solid defence up the middle. And it's a wide open division. If the Giants are still in the playoff hunt in August...well, check out Barry's August and September splits from 2002, and last year for that matter. You all remember that home run he hit off Troy Percival in the first game of the World Series. P. I. M. P.

Dr. Bold Protects America's Pastimes

This is my first foray into the blogosphere. It's a foray I've been hesitant to make. But, alas, it seems that this is the future of writing, so I may as well make the best of it. Like most blogs, there will be musings here. Probably musings on a variety of topics. But, for now at least, it is, at heart, a baseball blog. It is not a fantasy baseball blog. But neither isn't it a fantasy baseball blog. The two are not irreconcible. Fantasy baseball is, in certain circles, a perversion; an offense against the sport. Like online poker, Golden Tee, or "professional" wrestling. There are fantasy baseball "experts" who go the whole season without going to a game, or even so much as watching one on TV. For them, fantasy baseball is a grand equation. And, perhaps, for the right-brained among us, there is a savant beauty even in that. As I see it though, fantasy baseball has had a dramatic impact in creating an informed, passionate fan base. Rarely do I see fantasy loyalties affecting team loyalties, but inevitably fantasy players understand more about baseball as a whole: the league, the sport, and the industry. To be a great fantasy GM, one must consider many of the same nuances that concern a real GM, because even if they don't effect your fantasy team directly, anything that effects the game effects its players. Baseball remains "the thinking man's game," as it has often been called, partially because of the popularity of fantasy.

When it comes down to it though, my passion is not baseball business, but baseball aesthetics. Baseball is an analogy for everything I love - and hate - about America. Gerald Early says that America has made three great contributions: the Constitution, Jazz, and Baseball. And baseball history, like Jazz history, is inextricably linked with the triumphs and tragedies of our history. The game is filled with characters, heroic and otherwise. And the great baseball stories inevitably bring tears to my eyes. The tragedy of Roberto Clemente. The comedy of Pete Rose. The epic of Barry Bonds. The villians of baseball - Ty Cobb, Reggie Jackson, Gary Sheffield, Elijah Dukes - like the villians of America - John Brown, Robert E. Lee, Richard Nixon - are inevitably as compelling as the heroes. Much of the time, hopefully, this blog will be an inking of those anecdotes from the game that mean well more than the accumulation of wins and statistics. And sometimes, wins and statistics will be more than enough.