I wrapped up my last "real" draft of the season this afternoon, but I won't simply be twiddling my thumbs until Opening Day. Below is a comprehensive list of players who ended up on several Hippeaux teams this March. This doesn't necessarily mean this are my "favorite" players at any position, merely that they are players who I clearly have ranked at least a notch or two higher than most of my competitors. If a player winds up on two of my eight teams it might be merely coincidence, but three or more seems to suggest a pattern...
Catcher:
Russell Martin (3)
- $8 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $7 in 10-team Standard Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- 12th Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
Concerns about Trane's groin injury coupled with his poor performance in 2009 drove his price down drastically this March. For the first time since 2007 he was not treated as a top five fantasy catcher. I will point out that even I didn't rank him ahead of players like Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero, but I do think he belongs well inside the top ten. It's becoming increasingly clear the Martin is on track to start on Opening Day, so his stock will likely go up a little in the coming week.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .280, 75 R, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 12 SB
Jeff Clement (3)
- $2 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $1 in 10-team NL-only 8X8 Auction
- $1 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
Catcher eligibility made Clement one of my favorite "flyers." He is expected to start the season as the Pirates everyday first-baseman. I don't necessarily expect him to hold onto that job for very long, but regular at-bats early in the year make him a good insurance plan for backstops like Martin and Yadier Molina who may be limited by injuries in the early weeks of the season.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .245, 45 R, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB
First Base:
Albert Pujols (3)
- $42 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
-1st Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
-1st Rd. in 10-team Mixed Points Draft
There's no analysis here. In leagues that you're lucky enough to get the #1 pick, you take Prince Albert, without hesitation.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .330, 120 R, 50 HR, 125 RBI, 8 SB
Miguel Cabrera (3)
- $38 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $38 in 10-team AL-only H2H 8X8 Auction
- $34 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
I didn't begin the draft season targeting Miggy, but it became clear to me early on that the perennial MVP candidate was being slightly underrated in most auctions compared to other elite players. Miggy frequently went for less money than Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard, all of whom I think he compares favorably to (although I would rate Fielder slightly ahead of him). The only rationale I have for this trend is his much-publicized "bender" before Game 163 last October (everybody should be reminded that he ended up going 2-for-5 with a double, home run, and a pair of RBI in that game). Miggy came into camp in great shape and promising to behave himself. Not that it matters. Over the last six seasons he has been utterly consistent, despite his lifestyle, averaging .315-98-33-115-4. It doesn't hurt that he turns 27-years-old next month.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .320, 100 R, 35 HR, 115 RBI, 8 SB
Derrek Lee (3)
- $23 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft (x2)
- $15 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
D-Lee had the second-best season of his career in '09, at the age of 33. I think it would be unwise to expect him to repeat those numbers. However, it is proof that he still has something left in the tank and his 35 HR are proof that the wrist he broke in 2006 is finally fully healed. A full season from Aramis Ramirez will provide Lee with a little more lineup protection.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .295 AVG, 90 R, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 3 SB
Second Base:
Howie Kendrick (3)
- $15 in 10-team AL-only H2H 8X8 Auction
- $13 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $10 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
I'm not one of those who's expecting Howie Kendrick to develop into a batting champ and 30/30 threat, but this is clearly the season for the post-hype backlash. Kendrick will provied double-digit steals and homers, as well as excellent batting average, at a fairly thin position. And, at 26, there's still upside. He had a great second-half in '09 (948 OPS). I don't expect him to bat .358 over the course of a full season, but .320 is very possible. When drafting Kendrick, it is important to have a back-up plan, he's never gotten more than 400 plate appearances.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .310 AVG, 80 R, 12 HR, 75 RBI, 12 SB
Third Base:
Kevin Youkilis (4)
- $25 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $23 in 10-team AL-only H2H 8X8 Auction
- $21 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- 3rd Rd. in 10-team Mixed Points Draft
If you happen to be in a league that counts categories like OBP, OPS, or BB, Youkilis' value spikes dramatically, but even in standard leagues I think he provides excellent bang for you buck. He belongs among the premium players with third-base eligibility, but he routinely falls $5-$10 lower or 2-3 rounds later than Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, and David Wright. This may be the last year he holds onto that valuable 3B eligibility, so take advantage. Youk's appeal has been slightly depressed by his brief DL stint in 2009, but he's been fairly dependable throughout his career. More importantly, he has raised his OPS in every single season in the big leagues, peaking at 961 last year. I don't know if you can expect that trend to continue, but I certainly don't see a significant drop-off coming at the age of 31.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .310 AVG, 105 R, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 4 SB
Shortstop:
Jimmy Rollins (5)
- $28 in NL-only H2H 8X8 Auction
- $26 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft (x2)
- $18 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- 2nd Rd. in 10-team Mixed Points Draft
It is safe to say that J-Roll will be at least $10 cheaper than Hanley Ramirez and at least $5 cheaper than Troy Tulowitzki. In many league he will also fall behind Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter. Like Big Papi, this is the result of a much-publicized '09 slump. But Rollins overall numbers, especially for roto leagues, were not even that bad (.250-100-21-77-31) and there's many reasons to believe that his 801 OPS in the second half is closer to what we should expect than the 642 OPS in the first half. Shortstop is a fairly deep position this year, so I'd hardly blame you for passing on all the relatively risky elite options, but if you want a top-five player at this position, Rollins will give you the best value.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .275, 110 R, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 40 SB
J. J. Hardy (3)
- $8 in 10-team AL-only H2H 8X8 Auction
- $1 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $1 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
There is an interesting class of third-tier shortstop options this season, including guys like Alcides Escobar, Yunel Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Everth Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Hardy, all of which will probably be just outside (or just inside) the top ten at their position and thus, especially in shallow leagues, a few of them will be available near the end of your draft for almost nothing. Yet all of these players have the potential to be very useful in at least a couple categories; solid plays at your middle-infield slot, if not at the primary position. Although I picked up all of then in one league or another, Hardy seemed to be available in the "flyer" stages even more often than the rest. He had a rough year in '09, but he's only 27 and has proven 25 HR power, a rarity at this position.
Standard 5X5 Projections: .270, 75 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB
Outfield:
B.J. Upton (4)
- $16 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $16 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- $15 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $15 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
I think I made a pretty strong case for B. J. last week, but you will note that although there were several leagues that Upton went for well over $20, I never chased him into that range. And, all of the leagues I took him in are heavily weighted towards the stolen base (all 5X5 leagues should be characterized as such and in the points leagues listed above the SB is worth either four or five points, which makes it as valuable as an RBI double). Upton was able to net 40 SB last year, even though he was having a rough time of it at the plate. If he rebounds even slightly at the plate in 2010, I expect that number could go above fifty.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .285 AVG, 92 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 50 SB
Chris Young (4)
- $4 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $2 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $1 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- 14th Rd. in 10-team Mixed Points Draft
Chris Young was somebody I targeted late. We know he has 30/30 upside based on his 32/27 rookie season and it looked to me like he had figured some things out following his AAA demotion in '09. After returning he posted an 859 OPS with 8 HR in 31 games. He's a backup in every league I've got him in, which means I'll be either spot-starting him in favorable matchups or waiting to see how he looks in the early weeks before moving him to the active roster. I'll be especially cautious in leagues where I expect my team average to be fragile.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .250 AVG, 75 R, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB
Carlos Gonzalez (3)
- $12 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $2 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft (x2)
I paid special attention to Gonzalez in my BLOGZKRIEG! diary, so I'll try not to repeat myself, except to say that he's basically my biggest man-crush of 2010.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .300, 105 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 25 SB
Curtis Granderson (3)
- $25 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $19 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- 5th Rd. 10-team Mixed Points Draft
Need I remind you that Johnny Damon hit 17 HR in 272 AB at Yankee Stadium last season. Johnny Damon, for his career, hits a homer once every 40.6 AB. Granderson averages a homer every 25.3 AB. You can see where I'm going. I will, like the Yankees, probably look to bench Grandy against the premier left-handed pitchers in the AL, particularly when he's on the road. That said, I think he 484 OPS against southpaws last year was extreme. I expect him to get back to about his career norm prior to '09, which was around 650.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .275 AVG, 110 R, 35 HR, 85 RBI, 18 SB
Andrew McCutchen (3)
- $9 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- $1 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- 6th Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
McCutchen is similar to C-Gonz, but I think he's not quite as mature a hitter. Still, with excellent speed and power, he's got a shot at 20/20 this year and maybe 30/30 in the future, just be prepared for a little decline in average from his .286 mark as a rookie. McCutchen was just a .291 hitter at AAA and he'll have to make the dreaded second tour through the league at the beginning of 2010. Some holes will be exposed. However, I think McCutchen will make adjustments. If you don't draft him, I think he'd be a great mid-season trade target.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .268 AVG, 95 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 35 SB
Designated Hitter:
David Ortiz (5)
- $19 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $19 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $17 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $12 in 10-team AL-only 8X8 Auction
- $7 in 10-team Standard Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
Obviously, I'm a Big Papi apologist. However, those who listened to me at this moment in 2009 got 27 HR and 81 RBI in just over four months. I'm not saying the Ortiz isn't in decline, but I think his prolonged and widely publicized slump at the beginning of last year great exaggerated the slope of his descent in most people's minds. I don't expect a .300 average or 40 HR, but for under $20 (sometimes way under) Ortiz is a relatively cheap source of power.
Standard 5X5 Projection: .270, 85 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 1 SB
Starting Pitcher:
Ubaldo Jimenez (5)
- $17 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $10 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft (x2)
- $8 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- 5th Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
I've been touting Jimenez for a couple of seasons and now consider him my second favorite pitcher to watch, following only Roy Halladay. This spring my man-crush started to be a little more expensive and by a year from now I expect Ubaldo will only be affordable on my keeper teams. For the time being, I'll enjoy one more season of great value.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 16 W, 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 212 K, 225 IP
Ian Kennedy (5)
- $13 in 10-team NL-only 8X8 Auction
- $7 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $4 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $1 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft (x2)
I'm targeting Kennedy this season in much the same way I was targeting Jimenez a couple years ago. You need to have reasonable expectations, as Kennedy missed most of 2009 following surgery for a brain aneurysm. The good news is that he didn't have to go through a taxing rehab process, as he would've for Tommy John or shoulder surgery. The bad news is that he only threw 23 innings, so the D-Back will need to fight the temptation to overextend him if he pitches well. What I like most is that in 249 minor-league innings, Ian Kennedy has a 1.95 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and 273 strikeouts. I think Kennedy will be this season's version of Tommy Hanson.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 12 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 150 K, 145 IP
Yovani Gallardo (3)
- $28 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $20 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $11 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
For more on me going ga-ga over Gallardo, check out the BLOGZKRIEG! diary. I'm hardly the only one. Roto Professor has him ranked as the #11 starting pitcher in baseball and is projecting 190 innings with a 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 200 K. I think that's conservative.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 16 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 212 K, 205 IP
Roy Halladay (3)
- $36 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $31 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $29 in 10-team Mixed H2H Points Auction
Most of the reasons for loving Doc have been widely publicized in the last year, since he was finally anointed "the best pitcher in baseball" in the media frenzy which began at the trade deadline in '09. You can see more in my NL East preview. So much is working in his favor this season that the expectations are getting a little ridiculous. During the Baseball Tonight Fantasy Draft Special a couple nights ago Matthew Berry took the over on 22 wins. With the Phillies offense and the luxury of pitching to opposing pitchers, that may not be far-fetched.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 20 W, 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 235 K, 242 IP
Chris Carpenter (3)
- $17 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
- $8 (Keeper) in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- 4th Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
Carpenter came cheap last year because he'd missed nearly all of '07 and '08 following Tommy John surgery. He cashed in with a season which had him neck-and-neck with Tim Lincecum as the best pitcher in the National League. Somewhat surprisingly, Carpenter's risk/reward ratio remains very favorable this season as many owners are fearful of his injury track record (which, to be fair, did limit him to 28 starts in '09). Despite having three top-three Cy Young finishes (including one win), Carpenter ranks outside the top ten among pitchers on many people's draft boards.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 17 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 162 K, 201 IP
Bronson Arroyo (3)
- $8 in 10-team NL-only 8X8 Auction
- $5 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- 9th Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
You need to have a "rubber arm" on your staff, especially in leagues that put a premium on innings. Arroyo is among my favorites. He doesn't benefit from pitching at the Great American Smallpark, but Bronson has five straight 200 inning seasons and during his four years in Cincinnati has averaged 13 wins, 158 K, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 4.00 ERA. In other words, his ratios won't kill you and he can bring premium production in the counting categories for very little money. I'm even a little higher than usual on Arroyo this year because he finished so strong in '09, going 7-5 with a 2.07 ERA in his last 16 starts.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 15 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 145 K, 225 IP
Mark Buehrle (3)
- $11 in 10-team AL-only 8X8 Auction
- $9 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $6 in 10-team Mixed H2H 5X5 Auction
Buehrle, despite two no-hitters, remains the most underrated pitcher in baseball and especially in fantasy, where owners get scared away by his low strikeout totals. I'll point you to the NINE consecutive seasons of 200+ innings and double-digit wins. 2006 was the only year his ERA was prohibitive (and that was probably because he threw 260 inning during the White Sox championship run in '05).
Standard 5X5 Projections: 14 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 115 K, 215 IP
Daisuke Matsuzaka (3)
- $11 in 10-team AL-only 8X8 Auction
- $7 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $3 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
Nobody can explain to me how and why Jake Peavy consistently goes for around $20 while Dice-K consistently goes for under $10. Sure, Peavy is probably the better pitcher, but they are very similar: high strikeout former Cy Young candidates coming off of mostly lost seasons. Dice-K has the better lineup, the better defense, and the better ballpark. And, like Peavy, he proved at the end of last season that he was on the road to a full recovery, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in four September starts. Fans need to be reminded that Dice-K is only 29-years-old and his line in 2008 was 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 154 K. Repeating or even improving that is not at all far-fetched. I'm telling you right now that Dice-K will at some point put together a Cy Young season; probably as soon as he realizes his stuff is so nasty he doesn't have to nibble as much as he did in his first two seasons. Will it be this year? Maybe.
Standard 5X5 Projections: 15 W, 3.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 175 IP
John Lannan (3)
- $3 in 12-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Salary Cap Draft
- $1 in 12-team Deep Mixed 5X5 Auction
- $1 in 10-team NL-only 8X8 Auction
My affection for Lannan came mainly from the "21st-Century Cy" post I did early in March which became very influential on my starting pitching strategy in several drafts, especially in the late stages. I frequently picked up Lannan, Kennedy, Edwin Jackson, and John Danks for $5 or less. Lannan is probably my least favorite of anybody on that list, but he definitely qualifies in the "rubber arm" department, so his stock rises in points leagues and leagues that include categories like innings, batting average against, or quality starts.
Standard 5X5 Projection: 12 W, 3.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 110 K, 210 IP
Relief Pitcher:
Brad Lidge (3)
- $14 in 10-team NL-only H2H 8X8 Auction
- $3 in 13-team Standard Mixed 5X5 Auction
- 14th Rd. in 16-team Deep Mixed H2H Points Draft
I don't ever target closers, so the fact that Lidge appears here is due purely to the fact that he was consistently hanging around deep into the draft or auction. Basically, after last season's historically bad performance, nobody wants anything to do with Brad Lidge. Which I do believe is a little unjust. I'm certainly not expecting him to go back to being the pitcher he was in '08, but he was clearly struggling with an injury throughout last season and I don't think the Phillies will run him out there again unless he's fully rehabilitated. I would prefer he weren't my #1 closer (which he is in the NL-only league), but you know he's going to get a ton of save chances once he gets back on the mound.
Standard 5X5 Projections: 34 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 77 K, 60 IP
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