OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter

In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season.  My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.


(Note: "Worst" seasons and "lows" do not included instances when the player missed more than 20% of the season with an injury.)

Russell Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

Opinions were largely split about 'Trane heading into 2010.  Many, like myself, believed his putrid 2009 was a fluke, brought on by overuse and perhaps a nagging injury.  Other contended that Martin's offensive contributions in '07 and '08 were the outliers and that he was likely headed toward a Jason Kendall-esque career from this point forward.  OOTP definitely leaned toward the rebound.  In nine of the 25 iterations, Russell returned to All-Star status.  While the overall numbers suggested a slight dip in average from his '07 and '08 seasons, they were modestly optimistic.

Best: .290 AVG, 109 R, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 15 SB
Highs: .302 AVG, 109 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 15 SB

Average: .270 AVG, 81 R, 12 HR, 65 RBI, 9 SB

Worst: .264 AVG, 54 R, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 11 SB
Lows: .232 AVG, 54 R, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 5 SB

Injured: 4%
All-Star: 36%
Gold Glove: 16%

Miguel Cabrera - 1B - Detroit Tigers

Miggy is the lynchpin of my BLOGZKRIEG! team and I invested heavily in him in other leagues as well, with the hopes that his improved work ethic/sobriety might move him towards the MVP-level effort that seems inevitable, considering his talent.  OOTP did see the MVP as a real possibility, as he nabbed it on three occasions.  Miggy was consistently near the top of the league in all the triple-crown categories.

Best: .308 AVG, 112 R, 44 HR, 127 RBI, 2 SB
Highs: .354 AVG, 112 R, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 5 SB

Average: .294 AVG, 94 R, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB

Worst: .266 AVG, 72 R, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 0 SB
Lows: .252 AVG, 72 R, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

Injured: 12%
MVP: 12%
All-Star: 52%

Howie Kendrick - 2B - Los Angeles Angels

I wasn't intentionally targeting him, but I must have rated Kendrick higher than average going into the season because he ended up on a lot of my teams.  I certainly don't operate under the illusion that Kendrick is a batting champion in the making, but I do think he could provide solid speed and power at what remains a relatively thin position.  I'd be quite satisfied with OOTP average projection.

Best: .322 AVG, 104 R, 12 HR, 93 RBI, 24 SB
Highs: .322 AVG, 104 R, 20 HR, 101 RBI, 24 SB

Average: .272 AVG, 76 R, 12 HR, 71 RBI, 14 SB

Worst: .250 AVG, 76 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 16 SB
Lows: .250 AVG, 67 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB

Injured: 16%

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda performas extremely well in OOTP.  His counting stats are still severely effected by the poor lineup around him, but he is a consistent candidate for the NL batting title and even has about a 25% chance at 30 HR power.

Best: .361 AVG, 113 R, 39 HR, 129 RBI, 2 SB
Highs: .365 AVG, 113 R, 39 HR, 129 RBI, 10 SB

Average: .330 AVG, 85 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 4 SB

Worst: .279 AVG, 91 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 1 SB
Lows: .279 AVG, 72 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 1 SB

Injured: 24%
MVP: 8%
All-Star: 44%

Carlos Gonzalez - OF - Colorado Rockies

Car-Go was my single biggest man-crush heading into 2010 and he's off to a hot start, despite missing about a week with hamstring issues.  OOTP backs up my love in a major way, as Gonzalez even pulled down an MVP in one iteration.  They see Carlos as having an essentially 50/50 shot at 20/20 and even a slim chance of 30/30.

Best: .333 AVG, 109 R, 32 HR, 131 RBI, 26 SB
Highs: .333 AVG, 109 R, 32 HR, 131 RBI, 32 SB

Average: .289 AVG, 85 R, 21 HR, 91 RBI, 21 SB

Worst: .275 AVG, 68 R, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 17 SB
Lows: .248 AVG, 66 R, 15 HR, 71 RBI, 15 SB

Injured: 12%
MVP: 4%
All-Star: 20%
Gold Glove: 20%

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

Having Chris Young was a serious boon during the first two weeks of the season, but he's now mired in a prolonged oh-fer reminiscent of what he's done for most of the last two seasons.  OOTP sees exactly zero chance of Young becoming the 30/30 threat many imagined following his excellent rookie campaign, and only about a 40% chance of him keeping a full-time job throughout the 2010 season.

Best: .239 AVG, 100 R, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 12 SB
Highs: .260 AVG, 100 R, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 12 SB

Average: .237 AVG, 59 R, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 5 SB

Worst: .236 AVG, 39 R, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB
Lows: .217 AVG, 29 R, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Injured: 24%

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

A very popular sleeper this season, Bruce is off to a slow start overall, but does already have 3 HR.  OOTP believes there is about a 50% chance this is the breakout campaign we've been waiting for, with high HR and RBI totals more likely than high average and run totals, naturally.

Best: .293 AVG, 109 R, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 3 SB
Highs: .319 AVG, 109 R, 41 HR, 123 RBI, 12 SB

Average: .278 AVG, 86 R, 30 HR, 96 RBI, 6 SB

Worst: .238 AVG, 79 R, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 6 SB
Lows: .238 AVG, 66 R, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB

Injured: 28%
All-Star: 24%

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

I will continue to be a Big Papi apologist until he loses his everyday job.  Unfortunately, OOTP is certain that will happen this year, as Ortiz failed to get 500 AB in any of the 25 iterations.  OOTP is so certain to Papi's eminent decline that he failed even to match his modest '09 numbers (even in terms of pace) on any occasion.

Best: .274 AVG, 66 R, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB
Highs: .284 AVG, 66 R, 27 HR, 82 RBI, 1 SB

Average: .239 AVG, 50 R, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 0 SB

Worst: .215 AVG, 37 R, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 0 SB
Lows: .192 AVG, 37 R, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB

Injured: 8%

Roy Halladay - SP - Philadelphia Phillies

Probably the most exciting aspect of preseason prognostication for 2010 is imagining what kind of video-game numbers Roy Halladay can post moving from the AL East to the NL East.  In four starts, he's already raised exceedingly high bard, going 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA and a pair of complete games.  OOTP suggests we modify our expectations somewhat, but they do clearly see the historic possibilities.

Best: 267 IP, 23 W (4 L), 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 223 K
Highs: 267 IP, 24 W, 1.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 223 K

Average: 231 IP, 17 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 185 K

Worst: 250 IP, 13 W (14 L), 3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 204 K
Lows: 224 IP, 13 W, 3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 180 K

Injured: 20%
Cy Young: 24%
All-Star: 52%
Gold Glove: 4%
No-Hitter: 4%

Ubaldo Jimenez - SP - Colorado Rockies

Well, OOTP impressed me mightily following Ubaldo's no-hitter.  I ran these simulations several weeks ago and was surprised to find that Ubaldo had a very high (20%) likelihood of hurling a no-no this season, according to OOTP.  Damn.  Overall, the projections for Jimenez are more modest.  In many iterations he was a Cy Young contender, but in others he backtracked significantly from his '09 numbers.

Best: 216 IP, 16 W (7 L), 2.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 K
Highs: 230 IP, 20 W, 2.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 205 K

Average: 198 IP, 14 W, 3.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 171 K

Worst: 185 IP, 11 W (12 L), 4.86 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 153 K
Lows: 185 IP, 7 W, 4.86 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 149 K

Injured: 12%
All-Star: 20%
No-Hitter: 20%

Yovani Gallardo - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

Although OOTP doesn't share my hope that Gallardo could blossom into a Cy Young contender in 2010, they do think he is a mortal lock for 200 K, assuming he's healthy.

Best: 222 IP, 17 W (9 L), 3.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 231 K
Highs: 222 IP, 17 W, 3.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 255 K

Average: 189 IP, 11 W, 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 201 K

Worst: 200 IP, 6 W (13 L), 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 224 K
Lows: 186 IP, 6 W, 4.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 200 K

Injured: 24%
All-Star: 8%
Gold Glove: 4%

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

OOTP does not share in my Ian Kennedy love.  In the vast majority of iterations, Kennedy was either demoted or injured early in the season.  On the rare occasions he did survive in the rotation he didn't pitch particularly well.  His strikeout rates were consistently good, but not his WHIP.

Best: 173 IP, 8 W (12 L), 4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 148 K
Highs: 173 IP, 8 W, 3.94 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 148 K

Average: 49 IP, 2 W, 5.12 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 41 K

Worst: 57 IP, 1 W (7 L), 8.48 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 55 K
Lows: 22 IP, 1 W, 8.48 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 14 K

Injured: 24%

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Liriano was among the most talked about players entering 2010, as many wondered whether strong winter and spring performances were evidence that the Cy Young contender from '07 was back at full strength following Tommy John surgery and a disastrous '09 campaign.  His April numbers are excellent, but OOTP hedged their bets.  Liriano put together a few very good seasons and a number of average ones, but with some real stinkers mixed in as well.

Best: 207 IP, 15 W (7 L), 3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 187 K
Highs: 214 IP, 18 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 187 K

Average: 183 IP, 12 W, 4.75 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 145 K

Worst: 123 IP, 7 W (8 L), 6.66 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 105 K
Lows: 123 IP, 7 W, 6.66 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 105 K

Injured: 4%
All-Star: 4%

Brad Lidge - RP - Philadelphia Phillies

OOTP is steadfast in the belief that the real Lidge was the dreadful pitcher we say last season, not the unhittable one from 2008.  In the vast majority of cases, Lidge did not even win back the closer job from Ryan Madsen.

Best: 62 IP, 31 SV, 3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 59 K
Highs: 84 IP, 31 SV, 2.62 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 102 K

Average: 68 IP, 5 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 79 K

Worst: 68 IP, 2 SV, 6.45 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 96 K
Lows: 56 IP, 0 SV, 6.45 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 59 K

Injured: 8%

Carlos Marmol - RP - Chicago Cubs

Although there were few occasions when Marmol's walk rate blew up in his face, far more often the first full year as closer went very, very well.

Best: 76 IP, 36 SV, 1.67 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 100 K
Highs: 82 IP, 38 SV, 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 113 K

Average: 66 IP, 31 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 82 K

Worst: 69 IP, 25 SV, 5.45 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 88 K
Lows: 58 IP, 25 SV, 5.45 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 71 K

Injured: 12%
All-Star: 40%