HippeauxNotes: On the verge of a Yankee implosion?

On Monday, the Yankees blew a five-run lead and needed two homers in the bottom of the ninth in order to walkoff against the Red Sox.  The following day they did the same thing, except this time it was their closer who gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth.  On Wednesday, they got stomped by Wade Davis and the Rays, yielding double-digit runs for the first time all season.  And yesterday Andy Pettitte had by far his worst outing of the season and the Rays once again piled it on, with four homeruns.

There is now more distance between the Yankees and the first-place Rays (5 games) than between the Yankees and the fourth-place Red Sox (3.5 games), and the Bombers have dropped eight out of twelve.  They are still on pace for 99 wins, so isn't necessarily time for desperate measures, but there are several causes for concern in the Bronx.

In the preseason, I got a lot of mileage out of the observation that the Yankees were the only team in 2009 who had eight regulars with 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers who made 30+ starts.  My point was that New York was likely to face more injuries this season and, unlike the Rays and Red Sox, I wasn't sure the Yankee roster was equipped to deal with such turmoil.

Already the Yanks have had to send Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Chan Ho Park, and Alfredo Aceves to the disabled list for extended stretches, while several other players, most notably Mariano Rivera, have dealt with minor injuries that have made them unavailable for a few games at a time.  As a result, Marcus Thames, Francisco Cervelli, Sergio Mitre, Randy Winn, Ramiro Pena, and Juan Miranda have all seen increased playing time.  The damage has been minimized by the fact that Thames (1001 OPS), Cervelli (904 OPS), and Mitre (3.32 ERA) have played exceptionally well, but the odds are certainly against them maintaining those numbers through prolonged exposure.

Injuries aren't the only cause of concern.  Prior to having three hits on Thursday, Derek Jeter had endured one of the rougher slumps of his career (.190 AVG over 18 games).  He has only four extra-base hits in May and his strikeout rate is way up, while his walk rate is way down.  It's probably just a slump, but with Granderson and Johnson out of the lineup, it's unfortunate timing.

Javier Vazquez has been a notorious disaster.  His 8.01 ERA leading to him being skipped on a couple occasions in recent weeks.  In his last start he managed seven strong innings against the Tigers, easily his longest outing of the season, evidence perhaps that he's on the mend, but the New York media has been quick to scapegoat him and his dreadful second half in 2004 remains an open wound for many Yankee fans.

A. J. Burnett was dominant in April and had a 1.99 ERA after six starts, but in his last three outings he's allowed sixteen earned runs in seventeen innings of work and walked as many batters as he's struck out. Burnett has always been prone to hot and cold streaks, so this is probably nothing more than that, but again, with Vazquez struggling, Pettitte nursing a minor injury, and even Sabathia turning in a couple of poor mid-May starts, the timing has been unfortunate.

Clearly, New York has some breathing room due to their hot start, but with Boston getting healthy and Detroit surging as well, they can't continue to lose two out of every three games for too much longer.  After a challenging road trip to Minnesota, the Yankees will play thirteen of their next sixteen games against Baltimore, Houston, and Cleveland, three of the four worst teams in baseball so far in 2010.  They'll have a chance to get healthy and pad their record a little before heading into a relatively challenging interleague schedule (v. Phillies, v. Mets, @ D-Backs, @ Dodgers).

The next six weeks could see New York and Tampa Bay distancing themselves from everybody else in the American League on the road to becoming the first duo of team to win 100+ games in the same division since the Mariners and Athletics did it in 2001.  Or, we could see the AL East's Wild Card dominance threatened.  Only one time in the last seven seasons (Detroit, '06) has the AL Wild Card come from another division.

New York, New York

Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com this morning feature a discussion of the early returns from Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. Granted, we shouldn't be quick to judge a park on two weeks in April, but 17 HR and 49 R in three games is enough to make even the most disciplined statistician whistle through his gap teeth. It's even more remarkable when you consider that one of those games started as a pitcher's duel between C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee that was locked in a 1-1 tie through six innings.

Sure part of the Indians 22-run explosion on Saturday can be attributed to the struggles of Chien-Ming Wang (6 IP, 34.50 ERA), who's looked like a batting practice pitcher in each of his last three starts. He got equally pummeled in Tampa Bay, which isn't exactly a hitter's haven, and Baltimore last week.

In the long run, if Yankee Stadium continues to play like Coor's Field (or worse!?!), it will have major fantasy repercussions. The stock of Yankee's hitters - already pretty high - goes up, while the stock of Yankee's pitchers goes down. Besides Wang, who shouldn't be starting in any leagues until he proves himself capable of getting past the second inning, I am particularly worried about A. J. Burnett. While Sabathia's flyball rate has been consistently declining in recent years, from 41.0% in 2004 to 31.7% last season, Burnett's is headed in the other direction, from an exceptional 22.3% in 2005 to 32.0% in '08, which may be why he averaged 21 HR allowed in his last two seasons with the Blue Jays. The good news for the Yankees is that both Sabathia and Burnett, as well as Joba Chamberlain, have exceptional strikeout rates, something which should be immune to park factors.

The immediate impact for fantasy owners is that you should consider benching mid-tier starters when they visit the Yankees, something you might have been tempted to do regardless. And while most of the Yankee regulars are already owned in most leagues, you may consider picking up a guy like Melky Cabrera, or trading for guys like Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and Derek Jeter, all of whom may be on the verge of an unexpected power spike. Also, visiting players could be good waiver wire acquisitions. For instance, Asdrubel Cabrera, probably unowned in most shallow leagues, went 5-for-8 in two games in New York this week, with a homer, four runs, and five RBI.

Across town, the early observers of Citi Field are predicting it to be considerably advantageous to pitchers. Things may change as the weather warms up, but that could be great news for Oliver Perez. Perez has surrendered 20+ HR in every season since 2003, which is part of the reason we remain skeptical about him in spite of his obvious talent. A subtle decrease in his homer rate could make a big difference in his ERA and win totals. To a lesser extent, the same may be said of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine.

While the dimensions of their ballpark will have little to no impact on the value of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, none of whom rely heavily on the homer, it may be the right time to unload Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church. They are both off to hot starts, but Citi may be particularly hard on left-handed power hitters both offer other risks as well. Delgado is, of course, aging, though showing no major indications of decline yet, at 37. Church is an injury risk and in danger of losing at-bats to Gary Sheffield, who is determined to make the Tigers pay for releasing him and is, more importantly, a right-handed power threat, something that the Mets are missing (outside of David Wright). Sheff will almost certainly start against lefties so long as he is healthy and effective, and if he proves he's still the same player he was two years ago, it is only a matter of time before he "demands" full-time player status. In deep leagues, I recommend picking him up RIGHT NOW.

As I said earlier, we should be cautious in making too much of a week's worth of games. However, fantasy leagues are won by being aware of factors that others may not pay attention to.

Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High

It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team.  As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long.  However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible.  Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.

Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI).  What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries.  Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP).  Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time.  Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power.  Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego).  If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.

A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start.  After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs).  If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y

ear.  Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far.  Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.

Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half.  Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467.  Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters.  But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic.  In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB).  Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers.  It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.

Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs

This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues.  Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio.  He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion.  Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems.  The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA).  I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him.  However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season.  If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.

Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11.  Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.

Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels

It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers.  Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade.  Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.  

Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four.  He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support.  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.