The Payoff Part Deux (Milwaukee Brewers)

In case it hasn't already become clear, you can expect to see a lot of Brewers coverage this season.  The Crew, who have been among my favorite franchises ever since Doug Melvin took over as GM, have an especially high Narrative Likability Factor in 2011.  As I discussed this offseason, with the free agency of Prince Fielder imminent, the Brewers are "going for it," as was clearly evidenced by the mortgaging of the farm system for the short-term services of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

One of the reasons to root for Milwaukee in 2011 is that, led by Melvin, the Brewers are among the franchises who have been "doing it right" according to the conventional wisdom regarding success in smaller markets.  The core of the team is homegrown.  With the exception of the ill-timed signing of Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee has avoided buying up free agents at a premium, instead extending young players from their own system at discount rates (Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, etc.) and handing out low-risk deals to veteran role players (Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Nyjer Morgan, etc.).

As a result, the Brewers not only have an impressive cast of talent, but they have an identity, as most of the core players have been together since they were minor-leaguers.  That identity isn't only good for clubhouse camaraderie, but is also appealing to the fan base, which has quietly become one of the most supportive in the National League.  Since Melvin took over in 2003, Brewers attendance has gone from 50% of capacity to over 80% of capacity, an increase of nearly 15,000 fans per game. 

As was revealed by the Opening Day payroll numbers released earlier this week, Melvin's strategy for building a contender in Milwaukee has emphasized commitments from ownership, as well as deft drafting and player development, timely acquisitions, and improved marketing.  The 2011 Brewers represent the largest percentage increase in payroll of any team in baseball since 2004, which happens to be Melvin's second year on the job.  Unlike ownership in many other markets, the Brewers owners met improved support from the community with a deeper investment in the long term competitiveness in the team.  Milwaukee's $85.5 Million Opening Day payroll puts them in the middle of the pack (#17) among all MLB franchises, but it represents a 211% increase since '04.  Melvin grew this payroll gradually (in step with attendance) until he reached the plateau he's maintained pretty consistently since 2008.

Pundits like myself can commend Melvin all we want for his personnel decisions and his deft economizing, but the fact remains, he is nearing the point where he will be judged by his results.  As fun as this collection of Brewers players are to watch, they've got only two winning seasons and one playoff appearance during Melvin's tenure.  With the face of the franchise in his final season, it's imperative the Brewers improve upon that record.  During the Opening Weekend against the reigning NL Central champs, the Cincinnati Reds, you could see that the pressure was on.  The Brewers hit just .223 against the Reds, with an abysmal 26/5 K/BB ratio.  Their bullpen got roughed up, including a painful three-run walkoff homer against closer John Axford on Opening Day.

But the Brewers bounced back in a major way this week, taking three in a row from Atlanta, another presumed NL powerhouse.  Gallardo asserted his Ace status by stopping the losing streak with a dominant complete-game two-hitter and Axford netted saves in back-to-back appearances.  The Brewers need to carry this momentum forward, as their performance in the season's first two months will say a lot about this team.  They will have to face Atlanta and Cincinnati again, as well as Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Los Angeles before Greinke's anticipated return.  If they can stay above .500 during this opening stretch, Greinke's comeback could provide them with a little confidence going into interleague play.

(Greinke is due back sometime around the middle of May.  Considering his injury is similar to that which delayed the start of Cliff Lee's season in 2010, I don't worry too much about his ability to stay on the field and pitch well once he returns.  Lee, after all, was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball last year, despite his late start.)

The biggest challenge for the Brewers comes in June, when they open a 15-game tussle with some of the best teams in the American League.  The schedule-makers did not do Milwaukee any favors.  They will face the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road, as well as the Rays at home, and their "interleague rival," the AL Central Champion Twins, home and away.  Four AL teams, all of which won 85 or more games in 2010 and all of whom are expected to perform at close to that level, if not better, in 2011.  Compare that to Cincinnati, who gets the Yankees at home, skips the Red Sox entirely, and gets to play their rivalry series against the lowly Indians.  Or the Cardinals, who somehow manage to avoid both New York and Boston, plus get six games against arguably the worst team in all of baseball, the Royals.  It would be a substantial accomplishment for the Brewers to get near .500 against their AL opponents, while their primary rivals will have a significantly easier time of it.

It's important to note that, even when the Brewers lose Fielder to free agency this coming offseason, they will not be going back to the drawing board.  Somewhat ingeniously, Melvin has gotten Braun, Weeks, and Gallardo under team control through 2015.  Greinke, Marcum, and Corey Hart remain under contract through at least 2012.  As such, it would be a mistake to argue that if they miss the playoffs in 2011 their window will absolutely be closed.  However, their is no reason to believe the Reds will be getting any worse, while 2012 will bring the Cubs some much-needed salary relief, they could be major players in the free agent market this coming winter.  While the NL Central is already a rather deep, competitive division, it could get even tougher in coming years.  Yet another reason Milwaukee's management clearly feels their time is now.

The Payoff (2011 Milwaukee Brewers)

A couples weeks back, Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, stunned the mainstream sportswriting world by landing the top pitcher in this year's trade market, Zack Greinke (I can't help but point out that I predicted this move a month ago, because it just made so much sense).  The Greinke acquisition, combined with an underrated trade for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, represents what Melvin hopes will be among the crowning moves of a Championship strategy eight years in the making.

When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history.  That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot).  The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending.  Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.

Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05.  Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons.  Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender.  Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.

At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience.  Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years.  Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self.  He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll.  Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05.  He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto.  Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.

While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come.  In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card.  It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.

The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies.  Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch.   Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.

In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar.  While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond.  Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency.  What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it.  Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit.  With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match.  Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.

Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew.  Foremost, their division.  In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup.  There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011.  The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter.  To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise.  The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins.  Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable.  Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East).  The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.

What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength.  The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson.  However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons.  The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock.  We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.

More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure.  The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005.  I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system.  40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt.  Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera.  Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base.  This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010.  He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months.  As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7.  That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.  

Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee.  25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate.  He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed.  The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason.  Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.

Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher.  Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628.  Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge.  If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.

On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order.  If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing.  As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend.  At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are.  Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline.  I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.    

Offseason Prospectus #4: The Milwaukee Brewers

Not too long ago I posted about the "I-94 swap" of J. J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. At the time I presumed that Gomez would have another year prior to arbitration, but as it turned out, he squeaked into that magical "super two" class by the hair on his chinny-chin-chin. Of the 210 players up for arbitration this winter, only Mike Fontenot and Dustin Nippert have less service time than Gomez. The center-fielder won't get a massive award, but his salary will at least double, to somewhere in the vicinity of a million dollars, which makes him slightly less of a steal. Hardy, of course, will likely make at least five or six times that, so Milwaukee is still getting the "payroll flexibility" they claim to be coveting.

Free Agents:

Mike Cameron (37) CF

Craig Counsell (39) INF

Jason Kendall (36) C

Braden Looper (35) RHSP

Felipe Lopez (30) 2B

Claudio Vargas (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Dave Bush (30) RHSP

Todd Coffey (29) RHRP

Jody Gerut (32) OF

Carlos Gomez (24) CF

Corey Hart (28) RF

Seth McClung (29) RHRP

Mike Rivera (33) C

Carlos Villanueva (26) RHSP

Rickie Weeks (27) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Chris Cody (26) LHSP

Tim Dillard (26) RHP

Alcides Escobar (23) SS

Matt Gamel (24) 3B

Jonathan Lucroy (23) C

Chris Narveson (28) LHSP

Angel Salome (23) C

In the last five years, Milwaukee has become quite possibly the finest small-market franchise in the country. So far, they only have one playoff appearance to show for it, in 2008, largely because they face stiff divisional competition from the Cubs (#3 payroll in '09), Cardinals (#13), and Astros (#9), but the Brewers continually draft well, develop well, and make wise, low-risk acquisitions (Jeff Suppan aside). They have exactly one player signed beyond 2010 and his name is Ryan Braun, one of the safest long term investments in all of baseball, who they've wrapped up all the way to 2015.

GM Doug Melvin made a point of resigning legendary closer Trevor Hoffman before he had a chance to test the free agent market. $8 Million is a significant investment for Milwaukee (who had a total payroll of about $80 Million in '09), but Hoffman was excellent at the back-end of games in his first season with the Brewers and provides veteran leadership in the very young clubhouse (which is likely to lose other popular veterans Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron) and a stabilizing presence in the volatile bullpen.

The Brewers lineup is loaded. The Brewers pitching staff is not. Yovani Gallardo proved himself ready to be an Ace after the departure of C. C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but absolutely nobody stepped up to fill out the rest of the rotation. Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva still possess promising arms, but none of them posted an ERA below 6.00 as starters in '09. Not an encouraging sign. Suppan continued his precipitous early 30s decline. In each of his three years since joining the Brewers, his ERA, WHIP, and BB have gone up, while his wins, innings, and strikeouts have gone down. I defy even the most obstinate sabermetrician to find a positive indicator among his peripherals.

While the Brewers remain stocked with talented hitters in the high levels of the minor leagues, they are not replete with quality arms. Jeremy Jeffress is at least a year or two away. Tim Dillard and Chris Cody regressed at AAA, although there is still time for them to develop into fair back-end starters. Chris Capuano is still recovering from his Tommy John and, Chris Narveson, who pitched very well both at AAA and in a big-league cup of coffee in 2009 is nonetheless a 28-year-old rookie with a minor-league record of 52-66.

If the Brewers could find one top-flight starter to pair with Gallardo, they might be able to cobble together at least an average rotation, which would make them very dangerous, considering their loaded offense. John Lackey is not a good fit. He is too risky and too expensive for a club with significant financial constraints, although he might display Sabathia/Cliff Lee type dominance over the short term with a move to the National League. The Brewers might explore a Ben Sheets renaissance, if he were willing to take an incentive-laden one-year deal to re-establish his value after missing all of '09. It could be a good thing for both parties. Sheets gets to pitch in a stadium, division, and league that he is familiar with while he tries to shake off the rust, and he has a lethal Brewers lineup to take a little pressure off.

In a perfect world, the Brewers would make a run on Roy Halladay. They are among the few teams who have enough prospects to tempt the Blue Jays without completely decimating their team for many years to come. Certainly, it is nice to have a wave of fresh talent every season, as Milwaukee has had in each of the last half dozen years, but at some point they are going to have to be willing to mortgage a bit of the future in order to go for a World Series. That is, unfortunately, a fact of life for teams in the middle and lower payroll tiers. Halladay, paired with Gallardo, Braun, and Fielder, would make the Brewers one of the most feared teams in all of baseball, but he would probably cost Milwaukee at least three of their top five prospects.

Few teams have the excess of talent which makes relatively inexpensive and quality hitters like Hardy, Cameron, and Felipe Lopez expendable, but Milwaukee does. Even after a minor house-cleaning, Ken Macha will be challenged to find regular big-league at-bats for Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Mat Gamel. The Brewers will also have to decide whether they can afford to hand over full-time catching chores to Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy, both rookies. They may decided it is necessary to bring back Kendall in a more limited role. Or, they may look for a cheaper option, somebody who has more experience as a back-up, like Jose Molina, Gregg Zaun, or Ramon Castro.

Braun and Fielder have replaced Manny and Papi as the most consistent and dangerous tandem in baseball, but if the Brewers are going to make a run, the rest of the lineup will need step up. Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks both have tons of talent, but were limited by injuries in '09. They need to step up and become the Brewer's versions of Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Escobar and Gomez will give Milwaukee superior defense up the middle, with the potential to become solid bottom-of-the-lineup producers. Escobar hit over .300 in his 38 game audition in '09, but with no power (.368 SLG). He's still just 23, so there is lots of room for development. The real depth of the Brewers attack may ride on the question of whether Casey McGehee can duplicate his rookie performance. His '09 OPS was significantly higher than any he posted in the minors. If he regresses, then Mat Gamel will need to live up to his hype. His 2008 production was one of the reasons Milwaukee was comfortable parting ways with Matt LaPorta. He took a small step back at AAA, but still showed excellent power and fair plate discipline. If he becomes a legitimate five or six hole slugger, the Brewers lineup may supplant Philadelphia as the best in the NL.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

2B Rickie Weeks (R)

3B Casey McGehee (R)

LF Ryan Braun (R)

1B Prince Fielder (L)

RF Corey Hart (R)

SS Alcides Escobar (R)

CF Carlos Gomez (R)

C Angel Salome (R)

SP Yovani Gallardo (R)

SP Randy Wolf (L)

SP Manny Parra (L)

SP Dave Bush (R)

SP Jeff Suppan (R)

CL Trevor Hoffman (R)

SU LaTroy Hawkins (R)

SU Todd Coffey (R)

LOOGY Mitch Stetter (L)

MR David Riske (R)

SWING Carlos Villanueva (R)

MOP Claudio Vargas (R)

MOP Chris Narveson (L)

C Gregg Zaun (S)

IF Mat Gamel (L)

IF Craig Counsell (L)

OF Jody Gerut (L)

The Season For Suits: NL Central

It wasn't that long ago that the offseason work of baseball's General Managers was confined to about an eight-week stretch, running from the Winter Meetings sometime around the beginning of December to the end of January. But in recent years, it seems, their work begins even before the playoffs are over (Atlanta has apparently resigned Tim Hudson, both Houston and Cleveland have announced new managers) and extends deep into Spring Training (at the beginning of 2009, you may recall, several key players - Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, etc. - didn't sign until after pitchers and catchers had reported). In a series of "Season For Suits" articles, I hope to preview what you can expect over the next five months from your favorite well-dressed men who act as baseball's middle management. I begin, for no particular reason, in the NL Central:

THE CONTENDERS:

St. Louis Cardinals (John Mozeliak)

Mozeliak inherited the GM role from the very popular Walt Jocketty and, as such, was faced with some early criticism from those who expected he would never be able to fill Jocketty's shoes. The Cardinals success in 2009 should quiet his critics, if only for a time. Mozeliak greatly improved his squad over the course of the season, acquiring Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, John Smoltz, and Julio Lugo, seemingly perfectly positioning the Cards for a run deep into the postseason. Although it didn't work out that way, Cards fans have to be very proud of the team their organization fielded for them.

Unfortunately, Mozeliak won't have any time to rest on his laurels. He already accomplished his first order of business, wrapping up Tony LaRussa for another year, putting to rest rumors that the legendary manager was feuding with the organization and considering a move. Now, there is the question of personnel, starting with those guys he signed in July and August. Holliday, DeRosa, and Smoltz are all headed to free agency, as are Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, and Joel Pineiro, leaving St. Louis with more unanswered questions than either of their primary rivals, the Cubs and the Brewers. At the very least, between now and April they will need to designate a left-fielder, a third-baseman, and two starting pitchers. They have promised to actively pursue resigning Holliday. If they could accomplish that, they could probably get away with an in-house solution at third, as David Freese tore up Triple-A and looked good in his September audition. But if Holliday, who will likely have two suitors in New York and one in Boston, proves too expensive, Mozeliak's winter could be very challenging.

As usual, the Cardinals will look for inexpensive reclamation projects to send to Dave Duncan's school for thirty-something castaways. Smoltz may be interested in attending a second semester and Braden Looper looks like he could use a refresher course after a significantly down performance in Milwaukee. Other good matches include Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Justin Duchscherer, and Carl Pavano.

Chicago Cubs (Jim Hendry)

High expectations going into the season overshadowed the fact that the Cubs accomplished something they had not done since 1972, securing at least three consecutive winning seasons. Last winter, Hendry made two major acquisitions, Kevin Gregg and Milton Bradley. Both were unmitigated disasters in 2009, while the very popular Mark DeRosa, sent to Cleveland for prospects, ended the season on the Division Champion Cardinals.

There weren't many bright spots for the Cubs this season. Derrek Lee had his best season since 2005. Randy Wells contended for Rookie of the Year. Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster all pitched fairly well, but all missed time with injuries, and none won more than twelve games.

The good news is, the Cubs have a lot of talent signed for next year. It's expensive talent and, this season at least, it was underperforming talent. But the odds would suggest that they will be better in 2010, even if they just stand pat. The only significant free agent they stand to lose is Rich Harden. Assuming the new ownership has pockets as deep as what Hendry has grown accustomed to, he will have some serious flexibility for pursuing his needs. He will have to decide whether to prioritize center field, second base, the back-end of the rotation, or middle-inning relief. In each and every case, the Cubs have modest in-house options (Kosuke Fukudome, Mike Fontenot, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Samardzija, etc.), so Hendry shouldn't be pressured if ideal candidates don't present themselves. He needs to resist the temptation to add more big, bad contracts to the collection the Cubs have already stockpiled.

As a Cubs fan, I can say I would really like to see them reel in a true center-fielder, but there aren't many on the market. Mike Cameron might make a good fit, if they could sign him to a one-year deal (with an option). A relatively cheap, defense-oriented guy like Coco Crisp might also be tempting.

Late in the season everybody assumed that the Cubs would dump the unpopular Bradley prior to next season, but the signing of hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo may indicate that they are considering giving the highly-talented switch-hitter a second chance. Certainly, his value on the trade market has never been lower.

Milwaukee Brewers (Doug Melvin)

The Brewers have been, over the last five years, one of the best run franchises in the league, and they enter 2010 with many solid pieces in place. However, Melvin's window for chasing a championship with the current core of players won't be open for a whole lot longer. The Brewers best player, Prince Fielder, will be a free agent after 2011, as will Rickie Weeks, J. J. Hardy, and Dave Bush, followed by Corey Hart in 2012.

From my perspective, it looks like the time is now. The only hole in the Brewers lineup going into 2010 is center-field, where Mike Cameron is becoming a free agent. Cameron loves Milwaukee and is a popular clubhouse presence, so re-upping is hardly out of the question. They may also consider promoting somebody like Lorenzo Cain or Chris Duffy.

The point is, Melvin needs to focus his attention this offseason on pitching. Things are not as bad as they seem. Although the Brewers were last in the National League in rotational ERA this season, they will enter 2010 with a healthy David Bush and (hopefully) Chris Capuano. Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, and Carlo Villanueva will all have an additional year under their belts. Several prospects, most notably Jeremy Jeffress, are rising rapidly through the ranks. And, for what it's worth, they still have Jeff Suppan.

What the Brewers really need (as C. C. Sabathia proved in 2008) is a veteran workhorse to insert into the front of their rotation, taking the pressure off Gallardo, especially, and everybody on down. Easier said than done, right? There aren't a whole lot of those pitcher in the game and John Lackey is the only one on the free agent market this season. As a Boras client, he's probably out of their price range.

However, what Milwaukee does have is a plethora of young talent, both major-league ready and in the lower rungs of the system. As it stands, Weeks, Hardy, Casey McGehee, Alcides Escobar, and Mat Gamel will be fighting for three starting positions on the infield. Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy may be ready to share major-league catching duties as soon as next spring. Scouts around baseball are fawning over the raw skills of Jeffress, Brett Lawrie, and Cutter Dykstra. Melvin could part with two or three top prospects (and other couple middle-tier guys) without totally gutting the system, and that might be all it takes to land Roy Halladay.