A few potential All-Stars who might surprise you...

There are certain to be a few first-time All-Stars this season.  Ubaldo Jimenez, who has to be the current favorite to start the game for the NL, will certainly get his first selection thanks to a couple of history-making months.  Rookie outfielder, Jason Heyward, is currently among the leading vote-getters in the NL outfield, and should be destined for selection even if he isn't voted in by the fans.  Also much-lauded is the AL co-leader in homeruns, Jose Bautista.

There are, naturally, also a few superb performers who have been largely overlooked by the media.  I offer a handful of unsung heroes who certainly won't be starters and in some cases would be borderline selections, but who definitely deserved consideration and increased publicity based on what they're doing in 2010.

Jose Valverde - RP - Detroit Tigers

Several balked at the size of the contract he received during the offseason, but thusfar he has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius, saving 16 games in 17 opportunities, and compiling a ridiculously low 0.59 ERA through his first thirty appearances.  Those supposedly much tougher AL lineups have managed to hit just .105 off Valverde, who had spent his previous seven seasons in the National League.    He got roughed up in his second appearance of the season, but has allowed one lonely run since.  Despite being one of the best closers in baseball during the last four season, Valverde has just one previous All-Star selection, in 2007, when he led the NL in saves with 47.

Aubry Huff - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants


Many fantasy owners gave up on Huff after a shabby April.  Since then, he has been among the top hitters in the National League, batting .342 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, and 1052 OPS in his last forty-some games.  Considering how bad the rest of the Giants have been offensively, Huff has to be given a great deal of the credit for keeping them in the thick of the NL West race.  He move to the outfield certainly helps his chance of selection, as there is a logjam at first base.


Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

I know, I know...I've beat this horse to death, but Ian Kennedy has been damn good this season, especially in the last two months.  His record is merely 3-5, largely because of very modest run support.  Kennedy's shot at selection increases because of his team.  The D-Back's top two players, Justin Upton and Dan Haren, are both having sup-par first halves, and other relatively big-name candidates, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, haven't been spectacular either.  Kennedy's major competition as Arizona's rep comes from resurgent hitters, Kelly Johnson and Chris Young.  His disadvantage is that so many NL starting pitchers are having strong seasons that his avenue to selection may be much more difficult than that of his position-playing teammates.

Marlon Byrd - CF - Chicago Cubs

The Cubs stink.  They stink in no small part because their biggest salaried players - Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, etc. - are all simultaneously having career-worst seasons.  Marlon Byrd, however, the 32-year-old outfielder who was supposed to regress following a breakout season in Texas, has actually gotten better...way better.  All that stands between him an his first All-Star appearance is the equally inexplicable Carlos Silva.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers

Furcal is very quietly having the season many expected him to have last year.  He has again missed some time, but in 167 at-bats is hiting .305 with a .354 OBP, 9 SB, and, of course, stellar defense.  He has been the Dodgers catalyst at the top of the lineup.  With Troy Tulowitzki and Jimmy Rollins lost to the NL with injuries, there's a good chance Furcal could get the nod as Han-Ram's back-up.

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

Only eight major-leaguers have double-digit steals and double-digit homers at this juncture in the season.  The group includes superstars like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, and  David Wright.  It also includes Chris Young, who after two horrible seasons of regression is finally fulfilling the promise of his rookie year.  He's currently on pace for 28 HR and 28 SB, so the 30/30 potential once heralded is still very much a possibility.  Crucially, Young has cut down on his strikeout rate and raised his average.  He's on base more often and is running far more frequently than he did in the past.  He's also been especially good in RBI situations (906 OPS with men in scoring position).

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.

Quartet One

First of all, welcome a brand-new incarnation of the Hippeaux blog, updated to incorporate a wider variety of Americana. Baseball fans, however, can rest assured that my allegiance to that sport above all others remains undeterred. So, I will bare my 'seauxl' for the first time on the topic of the 2009 free agent class. Here are, in my opinion, the top twelve available players this offseason and a subjective view of which teams might make the best fit.

1. C. C. Sabathia - SP

Although he didn't win another Cy Young, Sabathia was even more dominant this time around then he was in Cleveland a year ago. He became to first pitcher to record 10 complete games and 5 shutouts since Randy Johnson did it ten years ago (interestingly, '98 was the season the Big Unit was traded from the AL to the NL midseason). At only 28, Sabathia has already played in eight full big-league seasons and has never pitched less than 180 innings or tallied less than eleven wins. While I would find it hard to argue that he is a more valuable pitcher than Johan Santana, I think it is now safe to say that they are the only two pitchers in the discussion. The extremes ends of the Sabathia contract have already been delineated. The Brewers offering 5 yrs./$100 Million and the Yankees countering with 6 yrs./$140 Million. However, if money were the only issue, I think it is safe to say we'd already have picture of the big guy holding up pinstripes. Sabathia has thrived the past two seasons as the recognized leader of young, successful teams. Besides the much-discussed factors of wanting to remain in the NL and wanting to be closer to his home on the west coast, I think C. C. is reluctant to play third or fourth or fifth or sixth fiddle to long-time Yankees like Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte. It is clear that he thrives as the workhorse and clubhouse chairperson of an underdog franchise. I'm not saying that Sabathia is a egomaniac who needs to be constantly in the limelight - if her were, obviously, New York would be the place for him - merely that he might prefer a franchise where he has more opportunity to lead.

With that in mind, recent rumors that the Giants are preparing an offer somewhere between what is on the table from Milwaukee and New York seem compelling. On the one hand, the Giants already possess a formidable rotation and would seem best served by committing their free agent dollars to the pursuit of more offense. But, you can never have too much quality starting pitching and Sabathia would be the likable, long-term replacement for Barry Bonds in a way which Barry Zito clearly failed to be and big-ticket bats like Manny Ramirez and Mark Texeira might have trouble duplicating. With Sabathia in the fold, the Giants would also have the option of trading Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for that middle of the order thunder. Or, they could try to be the San Diego Padres - a hyperbolic emphasis on pitching and defense at the expense of offense - a formula which had a considerable history of success prior to this season.

2. Manny Ramirez - LF/DH

There may be only one place in the country where it is safe to say that Manny won't end up. Obviously, low-budget bottom-feeders like Pittsburgh and Kansas City would be unwise to pursue one player at the expense of filling a multitude of holes, but I could see a wide variety of GMs convincing themselves and their ownership that Manny Ramirez represents the quickest avenue to contention. They need look no further than their recent memories. He carried the Dodgers to the NLCS by batting nearly .400 with a Bonds-like OPS (1232) during the last 2+ months of the regular season, then hit over .500 in October. Only a year prior to that he carried the Red Sox to the World Series by driving in 16 runs during the ALDS and ALCS. Postseason runs are scarce, yet during his 43 playoff games with the Red Sox, Manny accumulated 38 RBI. There is really no case against such a hitter. There are logical openings for him in Seattle, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Texas, Washington, and Baltimore, where he could provide a boost for the fan base and make playoff aspirations seem legitimate. In places like Detroit, Tampa Bay, and all teams in New York, Chicago, and L.A., Manny could be the piece that turns perennial contention into championship fulfillment.

I think it will be a team from the latter group which finally pulls the trigger, becomes willing to offer four years rather than three. And, although I will not rule out of possibility of seeing Manny heading home to NYC, the best fit seem to be the Dodgers, where his eccentric personality was immediately embraced by the franchise and the community, and especially the young, talented players, many of whom probably owned a Ramirez jersey in high school. The front office will defer to Torre, who has plenty of experience dealing with prima donnas.

3. Mark Texeira - 1B

The last two seasons, Texeira has been like a freelance bodyguard. While he put up great numbers of his own after joining Atlanta in '07 and the Angels this season, he was brought on to provide protection for a superstar, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, respectively. I expect this pattern to continue. The Angels, obviously, would like to retain his services, as Torii Hunter is the closest thing they have to a cleanup hitter. Boston would like to fill that gaping hole behind Big Papi, because, although Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, and Drew are all great hitters, none of them profiles with Texeira's (or Ramirez') power. The Yankees will be parting ways with Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, while the health of Posada and Matsui remains in question, so they appear to have gaping holes on either side of A-Rod in the lineup. I expect this to devolve into a New York vs. Boston bidding war, such that Texeira may get the biggest payday this offseason even though he might not be the most valuable player. If Boston wins, New York will redouble their pursuit of Ramirez or, perhaps, try to sign Adam Dunn to play first base. If New York wins, I expect Theo Epstein to look for creative trade possibilities. With Jon Lest, Dice-K, and Beckett ingrained in the rotation, he may be willing to move Clay Buchholz and/or Justin Masterson.

4. Rafael Furcal - SS

Others may disagree, but it is my contention that an excellent defensive shortstop, who can hit near .300 batting leadoff, steal bases, and walk as often as he strikes out is more valuable than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher like A. J. Burnett or Derek Lowe. I need look no further than Billy Beane's aggressive pursuit of Furcal to know there's some truth to this. Beane is not known for his interest in expensive free agents.

Sure, we can't expect Furcal to hit like he did in April and May (before he got injured) over the course of a full season, but even while shaking off the rust during the playoffs he looked like a solid igniter. Oakland won't be the only team interested and as the price goes up, I expect Beane's eagerness to subside. Joe Torre repeatedly applauded Furcal, even while he was going through his prolonged rehabilitation, so I think it's reasonable to think he might resign with L.A.