Fantastic Thoughts: "Bill Hall is Jose Oquendo with power." (Fantasy Baseball Second Base Preview)

Although the depth at second has improved dramatically in the last few years, it is still a relatively sparse fantasy position.  Shortstop is shallower.  Catcher is by a slim margin.  And third base is close to neck-and-neck.  The sparsity of the infield "skills" positions leads fantasy owners to overpay for the guys at or near the top of the pile.  We'll routinely treat Hanley Ramirez as fantasy royalty, even though he has only one season of 30+ HR, only one season of 100+ RBI, and only two seasons batting above .301.

I, personally, rarely pay premiums at scarce positions.  So, in the middle infield I generally look for "sleepers" and value plays...as well as flexibility.

Especially in deeper leagues, when you take a moderate risk by making Aaron Hill or Neil Walker your primary second-baseman, with similar players at SS and/or 3B, you want to back them up with some low-risk options off the bench, preferably guys who play several positions.  Here's a quick look at some interesting "eligibility" guys for this coming season

Bill Hall - Houston Astros - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Depending on what your league regulations are, Hall may have as many as four position eligibilities.  He actually played seven different positions for the Red Sox last season, including one appearance at pitcher.  More importantly, he currently looks like an everyday player for his new team.  While he's not going to do your team average any good, he should be good for 20+ homers and double-digit steals over a full season and shouldn't cost much more than $1 bid or a late round flyer.

Sean Rodriguez - Tampa Bay Rays - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Again, you league's eligibility requirements will determine what he gets (5+ games at all the positions listed above), but he'll definitely qualify at 2B and OF.  Rodriguez is only 25-years-old, slated for pretty much full-time at-bats in a loaded lineup, and had a AAA slugging percentage of .620 in 750 plate appearances.  He's got premium power, decent speed (13 SB in '10), and shouldn't decimate your average (.298 at AAA).  Unlike Hall, he won't come free, especially in deep leagues, but might be worth chasing nonetheless.

Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - 1B, 2B, SS

It wasn't that long ago that the Red Sox considered Lowrie their top prospect, ahead of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and even Jon Lester.  In 2010, he finally showed a flicker of that promise at the major-league level.  From July 26 to the end of the season he got relatively regular playing time and hit .294 with a 936 OPS.  He closed off the year by hitting a pair of homers against the Yankees, pushing them into second place (and the Wild Card) behind the Rays.  It was a small victory, but one that surely didn't go unnoticed in Red Sox nation.  There's no clear place for Lowrie in Boston, but Marco Scutaro may be on a short leash and, of course, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia don't haven't the greatest track records for staying healthy (nor does Lowrie).  He's worth stashing in deep leagues and worth following in shallower ones.  I expect him to be a starter by August.  

Now, on to the rankings...

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Chase Utley, PHI
3. Rickie Weeks, MIL
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Dan Uggla, ATL
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN
7. Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It's actually a pretty crowded field at the top of the second-base rankings.  Following an MVP-caliber 2010 season, which coincided with injury-plagued campaigns from Utley and Pedroia, Cano is the clear #1 option at the position, but don't fret if you miss out.  Utley had a excellent stretch run at the end of last year and should be primed to bounce back in 2011, at a slightly reduced price.  There's also little reason to believe Pedroia and Kinsler aren't capable of returning to form, but be aware, in terms of 5X5 fantasy production, Brandon Phillips is very nearly their equal and comes without the injury risk, having played 140+ games in each of the last five seasons.

8. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
9. Ben Zobrist, TBR
10. Aaron Hill, TOR
11. Martin Prado, ATL
12. Neil Walker, PIT

This group can be summarized by the phrase "one good year."  For Johnson, Prado, and Walker it was 2010.  For Zobrist and Hill, 2009.  All of the players from this group have surprisingly power potential, especially for the middle-infield, but otherwise their strengths vary.  Zobrist and Johnson can get you stolen bases.  Prado hits for a high average.  Walker is young enough that there may still be room for development.  Unfortunately, there's not a lot of safety here and it will probably be at least another year before we can confidently say which of them was a fluke.

13. Brian Roberts, BAL
14. Chone Figgins, SEA

Speedsters a renowned for their expeditious declines.  Roberts and Figgins, both 33-years-old, are coming off disappointing seasons which could signal that descent has begun.  On the other hand, in limited opportunity following his return from the D.L., Roberts still showed good speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts), though absent his usual power (.405 SLG).  Figgins managed to pile up the steals (42), even though his season was in nearly every other capacity the worst of his career.  Advantage goes to Roberts primarily because he'll be hitting atop a revitalized lineup, whereas Figgins plays in the offensive wasteland of Seattle.  Both are heavy in the risk department, but they should come much cheaper than they have in the past and therefore might be worth the gamble.

15. Gordon Beckham, CWS
16. Howie Kendrick, LAA
17. Mike Aviles, KCR
18. Sean Rodriguez, TBR
19. Eric Young Jr., COL
20. Danny Espinosa, WAS
21. Ryan Raburn, DET

The next class of potential breakout second-baseman is led by two highly-touted prospects who, as yet, haven't put it all together at the major-league level.  Beckham got off to a horrid start in 2010, but had two strong months in July and August (.332 AVG, 941 OPS) before his season was cut short by injury.  Rodriguez and Young won't get as much attention, because they don't offer a divers toolset, but Young has premium speed and Rodriguez premium power, so you could do worse in deep leagues.  The diamond in the rough here is Mike Aviles, who could be this year's version of Martin Prado.  In most leagues he'll be eligible at three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) and has the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 HR and 20+ steals, if he can hold down an everyday job.  Wilson Betemit and Mike Moustakas are waiting in the wings, so Aviles needs to get off to a hot start.

22. Orlando Hudson, SDP
23. Freddy Sanchez, SFG
24. Omar Infante, FLA
25. Juan Uribe, LAD
26. Ty Wigginton, COL
27. Bill Hall, HOU
28. Mark Ellis, OAK
29. Carlos Guillen, DET

In most league you won't want anything to do with these guys, but in deep leagues, one has to plow the depths of the middle-infield ranks.  Infante had a "breakout" season in 2010 which prompted his selection to the All-Star game, but his excellent average (.321) didn't bring much along with it (65 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB) and I have serious doubts there is any upside at age 29.  Wigginton, who has legit power, could benefit from his move to Colorado, except that there is no clear place for him to play.  If a Colorado infielder suffers an injury, he could jump up the list.

30. Dustin Ackley, SEA
31. Daniel Murphy, NYM
32. Luis Valbuena, CLE
33. Alexi Casilla, MIN
34. Jeff Baker, CHC

This is the deep sleeper contingent.  Seattle seems prepared to hand a full-time gig to their top prospect following his dynamite Arizona Fall League performance, but his full season totals from AA and AAA were less than thrilling (775 OPS).  I'm not convinced he's ready, but if you can get him on the cheap there is obviously tons of upside.  The Mets Daniel Murphy experiment is probably destined for failure.  It is the Mets after all.  But if Murphy does prove himself able to handle the position switch, he has the offensive talent to be a top 15 fantasy second-baseman.

Fantastic Thoughts: Is Pujols still King?

I was doing a little Black Friday browsing, looking at various summation in the wake of the 2010 fantasy baseball season and I was surprised to see several early rankings for 2011 that had unfamiliar names at the top.

Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN started his Top 50 with Hanley Ramirez.   The guys at Bleacher GM were split between Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto.  I even saw a few cautious arguments for Carlos Gonzalez (how far we've come in one year).

I don't buy it.

For a couple years now there has been arguments for Han-Ram based exclusively on his positional eligibility.  There are several stat-hogging first-baseman around, but no shortstop comes within striking distance of Ramirez.  Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins have been dogged by injuries two years running.  In case you haven't heard, Derek Jeter is in decline.  Michael Young switched positions.  Troy Tulowitzki's been consistently inconsistent.

But, while Han-Ram still has a huge edge over the rest of the shortstop class and is very much in his prime at the age of 27, he's also coming off his worst season since 2006.  Even taking into account three-year averages, he's just not in the same weight class as Albert Pujols in the typical 5 X 5 categories:

Pujols: .331 AVG, 113 R, 42 HR, 123 RBI, 12 SB
Ramirez: .314 AVG, 106 R, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 31 SB

It's an old adage, but positional scarcity just isn't relevant in the first round.  You need to select a stat-hoarder with the #1 pick and Pujols is the premier stat-hoarder...and has been for a decade.

That, of course, is what's fueling the case for guys like CarGo and Votto.  Whereas Pujols is now in his thirties, and has suffered moderate declines in AVG, OBP, and OPS in each of the last two seasons, Gonzalez and Votto are coming off MVP-level campaigns and are still in their mid-twenties.  However,  youth cuts both ways.  CarGo won me several leagues this past season, but even I can recognize that his home/road splits are a bit disturbing and his BABIP was unsustainable.  I expect Gonzalez will continue to improve some aspects of his game, including his aggression on the basepaths and perhaps even his power, but there's potential for regression also.

I would also observe that, as good as Votto was, he did most of his damage in the midsummer months, got progressively less productive down the stretch, and had only one lonely hit in the playoffs.  Is that evidence that opponents had developed some kind of moderately effective scouting report?  Maybe, maybe not.  But I don't want to expend the #1 pick in the draft on a guy who could very easily revert back to his admirable, but not spectacular '08/'09 rates (.309-76-25-84-6).

Yes, both CarGo and Votto have advantages over Pujols in terms of more hitter-friendly ballparks, deeper lineups, and younger legs, but what they proved capable of doing for the first time in 2010, Pujols has done for a decade.  Coming off another year in which he led the NL in HR and RBI, he's given us absolutely no reason to think he's ready to stop.

Which brings us to Miguel Cabrera...

This is the argument I find most compelling.  If it weren't for the existence of Pujols, we'd be talking a whole lot more about what Miggy has done through the first seven full seasons of his career.  Let's put them side by side with the previous standard for consistency in first-base sluggers:

Lou Gehrig ('25-'31): 1053 G, 929 R, 232 HR, 981 RBI, .341/.443/.642
Miguel Cabrera ('04-'10): 1103 G, 702 R, 235 HR, 817 RBI, .317/.392/.558
Albert Pujols ('01-'07): 1091 G, 847 R, 282 HR, 861 RBI, .332/.420/.620

As you can see, Cabrera's only a nose behind the legends, despite the fact that he's played on far inferior teams.  With consistency and production on par with Pujols, especially in recent years, Cabrera's supporters can actually argue three distinct advantages.  1.) Cabrera is three years younger and coming off the best year of his career thusfar.  The bulk of his prime may still be in front of him.  Scary.  2.) He plays in the AL, where he has the luxury of taking an occasional game at DH, so his bat stays in the lineup (in an of itself, this explains why Cabrera has gotten a dozen more games than Pujols in the first seven years of his career).  3.) Miggy doesn't have any lingering injuries.  Obviously, Pujols has never missed significant time either, but he's had a pair of reconstructive surgeries on his right elbow, prompting ongoing speculation that he might eventually need Tommy John, which would undoubtedly send him to the D.L.

On this basis, I wouldn't fault somebody for taking Cabrera first.  I wouldn't do it myself, but I appreciate the rationale.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Pitching and defense may win championships in reality, but fantasy baseball pennants are all about the O." (Shortstop Preview)

In my first "Fantastic Thoughts" column of 2010, I encouraged readers to think about the way the recent trend toward defense might effect playing time and therefore change how they rate players, especially at the most challenging positions, shortstop being first among them.  That said, getting the ABs in just half the battle.  You still need to employ a player who has a prayer at the plate.  Ask anybody who has made the mistake of owning Jason Kendall or Adam Everett just how much it sucks to have 600 plate appearances from a guy that hits .240.  In what follows, because of lack of depth at the position, I will consistently endorse shortstops based on potential rather than production (except for the elite class).  Basically, I'd rather have a 22-year-old hitting .240 than a 35-year-old hitting .240.  The result may end up the same, but, as Elvis Andrus and Everth Cabrera proved in 2009, young players can make significant strides over the course of a six month season.  That .240 in April may be .280 in September, which still isn't great, but at this position, you're looking for little victories.

1. Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
2. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
3. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
4. Jose Reyes (Mets)

For more that a decade now, the early rounds of fantasy drafts have been governed largely by the dispersal of the "Big Three," a rotating trio of shortstops capable of producing like iron-gloved first-baseman.  The separation between the "Big Three" and the rest of the shortstop is perhaps the largest gap at any position, thus increasing the boon of selecting one of them.  The cast over the years has included a number of recognizable hypenations: A-Rod, Han-Ram, J-Roll, No-Mar, etc.

This year, the trio becomes a quartet, as Troy Tulowitzki joins incumbents Rollins, Reyes, and Ramirez.  While Hanley obviously belongs at the top (he's likely the #2 pick in most drafts), we could bicker at length about how to rank the other three.  Tulo hasn't put up back-to-back elite performances yet.  Reyes is coming off a major injury.  Rollins had a horrific first half in '09.  I wouldn't fault you for backing any one of these guys over the others, but I will point out that J-Roll, in his "off year," still managed 100 R (#4 among SS), 77 RBI (#5), 21 HR (#3), and 31 SB (#2).  There wasn't a single shortstop who came close to matching him in all four categories and only one player in all of baseball eclipsed his production across the board (Ian Kinsler).  Assuming J-Roll's 2010 is more like his second half (801 OPS) than his first half (642 OPS), we can expect him to once again warrant selection in the top two or three rounds.

5. Derek Jeter (Yankees)
6. Miguel Tejada (Orioles) [will become eligible at 3B in most leagues]
7. Jason Bartlett (Rays)
8. Alexei Ramirez (White Sox)

Ramirez was a very popular sleeper selection prior to 2009, but he failed to build on his solid rookie season.  I'm among those who would be willing to lay double or nothing that that 25/25 season that many people were expecting is still on the way, but I can't base that prediction on much more than a gut feeling.

Jason Bartlett is the opposite case.  Nobody expected his breakout in '09, as he hit more homers (14) than he had in his previous four seasons combined (11) and only Jeter and Hanley hit for a higher average (.320).  Bartlett is 30-years-old.  Is he a late bloomer, or was '09 a fluke?

Tejada's excellent showing in '09 continues to be overlooked.  He's no longer the power threat he was in his prime, but he still led the league in doubles, his a sparkling .313, and provided great run production for the position (83 R, 86 RBI).  It's hard to see how the move to Baltimore hurts him in any way.

9. J. J. Hardy (Twins)
10. Yunel Escobar (Braves)
11. Asdrubel Cabrera (Indians)
12. Stephen Drew (D-Backs)

As with Ramirez, you'd be drafting these guys for their upside as much as for any proven production, although they do all have at least one solid season in the rearview mirror.  Hardy and Drew have 20 HR power, but they're also strikeout machines.  Cabrera and Escobar don't excel at any particular aspect of the fantasy game, but each is quite likely to put up a .285-80-10-75-15 line, which is nothing to sneeze at from this position.