"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Texas Rangers

If it hasn't been apparent in my treatments of the Twins and the Yankees, let me be clear, Narrative Likability Factor does not portend to statistical objectivity.  If you've been following this blog throughout the season, than you're probably already aware, I'm not impartial at all when it comes to the 2010 Rangers. I've never been a Texas fan before, and I may never be again, but this particular combination of players, coaches, and front office administrators won me over instantaneously, and they will hold my rooting interest for as long as they can stay alive this October.  This is my attempt to convince you that you, too, should throw in your lot with the most soulful team in baseball:

• Performance Impairing Drugs:  Just weeks before the season began, the Rangers had to deal with reports that their manager, Ron Washington, had tested positive for cocaine the previous year.  Washington volunteered to resign, but Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the rest of the Ranger brass stood behind their skipper and appeared thoroughly nonplussed when asked to comment on the reports.  The underlying message was clear: so long as it didn't affect his ability to do his job, what Ron Washington does on his own time is his business.  This team has improved its record every year since Washington took the reigns and are now headed for their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
• The Painted Man:  Washington is, of course, not the only Ranger to have a very public struggle with drug abuse.  Josh Hamilton nearly lost his career to his addiction.  The '99 #1 pick washed out of professional baseball from 2003 until 2006.  He struggled to make his way back, his every supposed relapse the subject of national speculation, and, with a body ravaged by years of systematic poisoning, he's struggled to stay on the field.  When healthy, however, he has proven himself to be among the superlative talents in the game.  And for somebody with such gifts to have been humbled as Hamilton has, makes him all that much easier to root for.  The Hamilton story may be somewhat old news now, as the climax may still be his performance at the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium, but we can be certain that will change if he can lead the Rangers to their first ever World Series.
• They Could Really Use Those Postseason Gates:  The Rangers entered into this season on the verge of bankruptcy and, after a prolonged court battle, were finally put up for auction just over a month ago.  The good news has been that Nolan Ryan, the team president since 2008 and now minority owner, has been a consistent presence throughout, but it seems safe to say that the Rangers would be the first MLB franchise to go bust and life a trophy in the same season.
• Big Daddy:  Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players of his generation and is almost certainly headed for the Hall of Fame.  But like recent Hall of Fame inductee, Andre Dawson, Vlad has spent much of his thirties hampered by knee and back injuries which likely result from years of playing on the rockhard Astroturf in Montreal.  Vladdy was the driving force in the Angels lineup from '04-'07, winning an MVP, leading his team to the playoffs three times, and hitting .327 with an average of 33 HR and 119 RBI every season.  But, in '08 and '09, his production fell off slightly as he was limited by injuries and often forced into the DH role.  The Angels allowed Vlad to walk away this past offseason, to their divisional rival no less, for less money than they gave Hideki Matsui, about half the money they gave Bobby Abreu, and less than a third of what they're paying Torii Hunter.  Guerrero responded by once again hitting like an MVP candidate, with a .301 average, 28 HR, and 111 RBI.  He's headed to the playoffs, his former team is staying home.
• AAAA: Nelson Cruz was traded three times before his 25th birthday.  When he still hadn't become a major-league regular at age 28, many scouts believed he was one of those "AAAA players," able to dominate throughout the minors, but unable to hack it in the Show.  Over the last two seasons, however, Cruz has turned into one of the most awesome power-hitters in the American League.  He has struggled to remain healthy, but when he's in the Rangers lineup he's been good for a .544 SLG, while also hitting at a solid clip (.282) and stealing bases (36 in 44 attempts).
• The Maddux-Ryan Effect: For most of the last decade, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been considered one of the most homer-friendly environs in the major leagues and, as a result, the Rangers have struggled to attract free agent pitchers and have consistently compiled some of the worst team ERAs in professional baseball history.  That is, until recently.  Since Nolan Ryan joined the front office and Mike Maddux became the Rangers pitching coach, the Rangers have, like the Rockies before them, refused to see their ballpark as a crutch.  Much has been made of the Ryan's very public statements about starting pitcher endurance, but that has been only one minor aspect of the Texas pitching revolution.  Yes, this season the Rangers have three pitchers with 190+ innings for the first time since 1998.  They are also throwing more strikes and inducing more groundballs, thus leading to more quality innings.  The biggest piece of the Maddux-Ryan plan, however, may be conditioning pitchers who are without ego.  The new Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is one of the most unflappable, workaday superstars in the game, in part because the game humbled him in spectacular fashion back in 2007, when, after averaging 15 wins and 200 innings for three straight seasons, he found himself mired in such a slump that the Indians optioned him back to the minor leagues and then left him off their postseason roster.  Colby Lewis is a former first-round pick who struggled so mightily in the majors that he spent the last two years pitching in the Japan League.  These are pitchers who've faced adversity before, and they don't flinch when a flyball that would be caught just about anywhere else lands in the sixteenth row of the Arlington bleachers.
• They're Due:  There are thirty MLB franchises.  Only three of them have never been to the World Series, and of those three - Seattle, Texas, & Washington - the Rangers are the oldest, having joined the league in 1961.  Worse yet, the Rangers are the only MLB franchise that has never even advanced as far as their League Championship Series.  They were eliminated in the ALDS in all three postseason appearances ('96, '98, '99).  Sure, teams like the Cubs and Indians have waited longer than the Rangers for a championship, but at least they've got a few dingy old depression-era banners to hang in their rafters.  Texas got nothing.  Nada.  So they're due.  

Foremost because of that final point, the Rangers are loaded with underdog credentials.  They have the lowest payroll of any of the AL playoff teams and the only NL contender that's beneath them is the Padres.  They will probably have the weakest record of any of the AL playoff teams and they're coming out of arguably the weakest division, so they have been largely an afterthought in most of the mainstream media discussions of potential ALCS matchups.  Washington is the only one of the playoff-bound managers in the AL who has no previous postseason experience (Bud Black is the only such manager in the NL).  With the exception of Lee (and Rich Harden, in the unlikely event he makes the roster), the Rangers don't have a single starting pitcher who's experienced the postseason, and Darren Oliver is the only such player in their bullpen.  All this, combined with nagging injuries, especially to Hamilton, Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, could combine to make the Texas squad a bit tight and easy pickings for one of the AL East juggernauts (probably the Rays).  Or, they could be a team of destiny and the first first-time champions since the Angels in 2002.  

Narrative Likability: A+   

An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

Fantastic Questions: "Will the real Nelson Cruz please stand up?"

We've survived the Ides of March and, although your draft and auction season is probably just beginning, mine is already wrapping up.  Most blogger and fantasy analyst leagues and mocks happen well in advance of the season, so that there is a chance for commentary.  As such, I've already done 8 drafts/auction in a variety of different formats and I'm beginning to feel like I've got a pretty good sense of the trends this March and some of the questions you need to ask yourself during your draft prep, like...

How much are you willing to pay for Nelson Cruz?

RotoProfessor provides a pretty solid answer to this question and I concur.  I will err on the side of caution with Cruz this year, rather than expecting him to build upon his 33 HR performance in 2009.  Don't get me wrong, I think the power - so evidently on display during the Home Run Derby - is real.  I expect Cruz will once again be good or 20-30 HR, thanks in part to the friendly confines of the Ballpark at Arlington, and 15-20 SB, with an unremarkable average (.260 in '09).  I'd be willing to pay the going rate for such a player, which is probably $15-$18 in most leagues.  However, in my experience, there has been somebody in every league willing to pay considerably more than that, operating with the expectation that Cruz might actually have 30/30, 35/25, or even 40/30 potential.  However, I don't think that's a reasonable expectation.

What worries me most is his plate discipline and a rather alarming strikeout rate.  In the minor league he struck out 724 time in 725 games.  Last year he struck out 118 time in 128 games.  His strikout rate actually climbed over the course of the season, as the league adjusted to him, so that he had more strikeouts than games played in the second half, which is a 1/1 ratio I never like to see.

There are, of course, players who can perform quite well, even with all those whiffs.  Adam Dunn being the most obvious example.  The difference between Cruz and Dunn, however, comes down to OBP.  Adam Dunn has been averaging 115 walks a season since 2002.  Cruz picked up just 49 free passes in 2009.  He didn't just swing and miss a lot.  He swung and missed on a lot of pitches he had no chance of hitting squarely.  Until he proves himself capable of laying off pitches that are nowhere near the zone, big-league pitchers are going to find it easier and easier to get him out.  Ask Alfonso Soriano.

The good news for Cruz's fans is that Vladimir Guerrero could be quite helpful in this department.  A fellow Dominican, Guerrero is famous for his nose to toes approach, but those who have watched Guerrero consistently over the past couple years realize that he has adjusted a bit with age.  He still hates the free pass, but he realizes he can no longer go yard on pitches that bounce before they hit the plate.  If he can help to teach Cruz a modicum of plate discipline, his 2010 owners might get what they paid for.

The other big question with Nelson Cruz is for how long and how often will he continue to run.  He swiped 20 bags in 24 attempts in '09, but he only had 20+ steals in once (in 2008) in seven seasons in the minors, and he never ran with that high a success rate.  Perhaps, with the help of Ron Washington and the Texas coaches, he has become a better basestealer.  Or, perhaps, he was just particularly fortunate last year.  Not only will he slow down if he starts getting caught more often, he will slow down in a hurry if he continues to be hampered by injuries.  The Rangers definitely need him at the plate more than on the bases, so he could earn himself a red light with another spate of injuries.

Nelson Cruz isn't the worst high-risk/high-reward play for 2010, but I would much prefer one of the following players, who are younger, hit for a higher average, and also offer both power and speed, but at a lower price.

Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
Adam Jones (Orioles)
Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
Alex Rios (White Sox)
Chris Young (D-Backs)  

The Costas Confessional & Other January Musings

• The most important quote to take from McGwire's much-publicized statement on Monday is this one: "I had good years when I didn't take any, and I had bad years when I didn't take any.  I had good years when I took steroids, and I had bad years when I took steroids."  Although it doesn't necessarily excuse his actions, it is important to recognize that steroids do not create the superhuman baseball players.  Perhaps they kept him on the field more often or prolonged his career, but I honestly believe that McGwire's power was, as he puts it, a "gift."  That doesn't mean that his massive homer totals weren't somewhat pharmaceutically-assisted.  Certainly, keeping a player of his caliber healthy makes a big difference (see Ken Griffey Jr., Milton Bradley, etc.).  However, let's also remind ourselves that hulking muscles are not the only, nor even the most critical ingredient for baseball power.  Alfonso Soriano hits more homers than Kevin Youkilis.  Rail-thin guys like Alexei Ramirez and Khalil Greene have awesome power strokes.  The stigma associated with steroids is a by-product of its illegality, which is mainly a by-product of the dangerous abuse of early versions of such drugs by weightlifters, swimmers, football players, etc. in the 1970s and 1980s.  It is not far-fetched to believe that within the next decade or so, athletes in many sports will use a new generation of "safe" pharmaceuticals for exactly the purposes McGwire describes...and nobody will care.  After all, it is in the best interest of the league and the fans to have healthy, productive stars.  At that point, the backwards geezers who currently dominate the BBWAA will be too senile or too dead to continue their crusade against "cheating," and all our favorite "juicers" will be rightfully enshrined.  We will also probably discover that the pharmaceuticals they used during the first decade of the 20th century were mostly "safe" as well.  I'm not claiming that "makes it alright," but those partisans who have been demanding confessions from McGwire, A-Rod, Bonds, and Clemens need to get on the honesty train as well and admit that the "Juiced Ball" era did not destroy the game, quite to the contrary, the game is healthier than ever, and, despite the crusade about steroid-related health risks, so are the "juicers."
• McGwire's confession dominated Monday's Hot Stove session, overshadowing
  the Giants signing of Aubrey Huff.  It strikes me as a somewhat odd signing in that San Francisco is already replete with players whose best positions are first and third (Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Jesus Guzman, Matt Downs, etc.).  However, it is hard to find a bad one-year deal, especially for a player who certainly has the potential to be the much-needed middle-of-the-order presence that the Giants sorely need.  Huff is coming off the worst year of his career, but at 33, there is the strong possibility that was just a fluke.  Two years ago, in Baltimore, he was one of the AL's premier power-hitters, leading the league in extra-base hits (82) and finishing fifth in OPS (912), sixth in RBI (108), and eighth in homers (32).  If he can return to near that form, it could be enough to put the Giants over the top in the NL West.  After all, they managed 88 wins in 2009 with a truly paltry offense, and neither the Dodgers nor the Rockies have made any splashes over the offseason.  Huff and DeRosa (who will presumably play left field) should inspire at least a modest offensive improvement.  The key, of course, is for the San Francisco rotation to repeat it's dominating '09 performance and for Sandoval to prove that he is the kind of hitter you can build a lineup around (something which I firmly believe).
• I haven't yet posted my Offseason Prospectus for the Texas Rangers, who added Vladimir Guerrero over the weekend, but I will tell you that the Rangers are one of the franchises I'm most excited about heading into 2010.  I'm a big fan of Ron Washington and I was impressed by the Rangers performance in '09, especially considering they actually back-tracked offensively.  The health of Guerrero and Josh Hamilton will, of course, by crucial.  As will the development of young pitches like Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland.  With Millwood gone, the Rangers rotation is without a veteran presence (no, Rich Harden doesn't count), which could be ingenious or disastrous.  Either way, I'm looking forward to watching.  The Rangers are expecting a return to form from Vladdy, whose lifetime numbers at Arlington are pretty encouraging.  In fifty games in the Rangers home ballpark, Guerrero has 14 HR, 33 RBI, a .394 average, and 1175 OPS.  As far as the Rangers see it, even if Vlad is a disappointment, at least he won't be destroying them every time they play the rival Angels.  The only downside of the Guerrero signing is that it could impede the playing time of three breakout players from the 2009 squad.  In all likelihood, injuries will solve this problem, but there are currently two outfield spots available for Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, and Julio Borbon.  Cruz was one of the big stories of the first half, earning himself an All-Star selection, and finished with 33 HR, 20 SB, and an 856 OPS.  Murphy started slow, but from June on, he managed an 814 OPS with 15 HR.  The 23-year-old Borbon didn't join the team until August, but in the final two months he hit .316 with 29 runs scored, 19 stolen bases, and a 802 OPS.  I imagine Borbon will leadoff and play centerfield on Opening Day, with Hamilton and Cruz on either side and Guerrero at DH.  Murphy will spell Cruz against especially tough right-handers and bide his time waiting for one of the veterans to come up lame. 
  

Open Letter To The Rangers

Dear Nolan & Ron -

Congrats. I love what you've done with the place. You're threatening to post a team ERA under 4.60 for the first time since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time the Rangers had a winning record. You've still got no shortage of power, but also improved speed and infield defense with the promotion of Elvis Andrus and the conversion of Micheal Young. As of today, you've got the best damn record in the American League. I'm proud of you guys. We all are.

That said, there's a few issues I'd like to address. Don't get me wrong, I admire your skills and trust your judgment. Kudos on the Josh Hamilton trade and the Mark Texeira deal (which netted Andrus [.289, 21 R, leading MLB shortstops in Range Factor, leading AL shortstops in Ultimate Zone Rating], Matt Harrison [3-2, 3.82 ERA, 5.00 K/BB in May], Jarrod Saltalamacchia [respectable platoon catcher], and Neftali Feliz [2-2, 3.93 ERA, 36 K, 34 IP in AAA at age 21]). Letting Milton Bradley walk, it was a tough decision, but the right decision. Ian Kinsler (17th Round, 2003) was a stellar draft pick and getting Nelson Cruz thrown into the Carlos Lee rental was pure genius. Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones have been outstanding inexpensive veteran free agent acquisition.

There's a lot to hang your hats on, but it's only June and there's a lot of baseball left. The Angels managed to stay above .500 even without Lackey, Guerrero, and Santana. They're only five games back. It's time to plug the holes.

First, you're getting a 687 OPS from your first basemen, primarily Chris Davis. That's 200 points below the AL average and 27th in baseball. He's got a lot of pop and a lot of potential, clearly another great draft pick (5th round, 2006), but he needs to re-build his confidence and you can't afford to carry that kind of OPS at a premier position. You've got other options.

Secondly, you need to find a way to keep Josh Hamilton in the lineup. I know, I know, you're off to this great start even though he's missed 15 games and been mediocre when he's been available, but in the long run, he carries the big stick that opposing pitchers fear. Down the stretch, you're going to want visions of Home Run Derby in Yankee Stadium dancing in their heads. Josh is a monstrous talent, but obviously he's a little injury prone. That's what happens when you abuse your body the way he has. Help him out. Don't allow him opportunities to pull his groin diving into the wall in center field. Put him in right. Or at DH. Sure, Blalock is injury-prone too, but he plays a less active position (1B) and is infinitely more replaceable (with Chris Davis, Max Ramirez, and Justin Smoak waiting in the wings).

Tangentially, when did Andruw Jones become a DH? As I recall this is a man who for a long time was spoken of as potentially the greatest center-fielder of all time. I know he's more portly than he used to be, but as recently as 2007 he trailed only Coco Crisp in Ultimate Zone Rating at 22.4. Last season Hamilton was at -17.7. I have a hard time believing that Andruw's decline has been that steep. With a ballpark like Arlington, where every flyball gives your pitcher a coronary, it seems like the graceful glide of Andruw Jones would be a welcome sight, especially if it also helps to protect one of the best hitters in the AL.

Finally, teams do not win pennants with Kevin Millwood as their Ace. Just ask the Braves. As a #2, sure, but not as an Ace. You've got the prospects. You're going to need to be aggressive...but wise!!! Jake Peavy is a flyball pitcher, not right for you. The same goes for Dan Haren. Guys who do make sense for you, who may (or may not) be available include Roy Halladay (53.7 GB% in '08), Aaron Cook (55.9%), Roy Oswalt (50.3%), and Cliff Lee (45.9%). Go get one of them. It'll take the pressure of Millwood and the kids (McCarthy, Harrison, Holland, and Feliz).

Anyway, keep up the good work.

Best of luck,

Hippeaux