Plowing The Depths of the Designated Hitting Market

When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work.  You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon.  As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues.  Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:

Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB

However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.

ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting.  It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.

However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math.  There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October.  Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned.  Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain.  Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base.  Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked.  John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.

The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson.  That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season.  The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.

If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings.  Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball.  It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.

I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players.  Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.

This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings.  Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.

I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:

Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH

Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).

Toronto Blue Jays:

Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco.  Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced.  Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs.  But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.

The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities.  Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs.  And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.

The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that.  Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career).  Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly).  The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B.  Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.

None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos.  He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll.  One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).

Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.

Minnesota Twins:

The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round.  The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder."  Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:

Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)

Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.

Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders.  Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Fantastic Thoughts: Everybody's Underrated in Canada

Since the mid-nineties, few save diehards like myself, have felt it necessary to follow that friendly fourth-place team from north of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Canadian baseball fans have dwindled, robbed of one franchise and forced to watch another languish in baseball's toughest division.  You probably don't realize that over the last six seasons the Jays are actually twenty games over .500, having never won fewer than 75 games.  If they were in any other division, they would routinely be playing meaningful games in August and September and would likely have brought home at least one or two division titles during that span.

In fantasy baseball, as the 2010 season proved once again, it doesn't pay to ignore the Jays.  Toronto hit 46 more homers than any other team in baseball last year.  That's right.  Even if they hadn't had the MLB leader in homers, Jose Bautista, they would've been second in the majors in long balls.  (Note: On the other side of things, the Jays finished dead last in the AL in steals, with 58.  That's right, the entire team managed fewer steals than Juan Pierre.)

As such a dramatic team-wide power surge suggests, some of the year's best deals came out of Toronto.  Most notably, Bautista, generally ignored in all by the deepest leagues, compiled the biggest home run total by any player since 2007 and was also among the league leaders in runs, RBI, walks, and OPS.  Vernon Wells, the once-promising centerfielder who many had left for dead after a string of rather dismal campaigns, had his first 30+ HR season since 2006 (and didn't kill your batting average either).  You probably could've had him for $1 add the tail end of your mixed-league auction.

John Buck, a infinitely forgettable 30-year-old catcher who wasn't even guaranteed a starting job when the season began, posted career highs in nearly every relevant offensive category (I kid you not: runs, hits, doubles, homers, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG).  Alex Gonzalez, a veteran shortstop generally favored only for his defense, who hadn't hit more than 16 homers in a season since 2004, hit 17 in half a season in Toronto, before being traded to the Braves.  He also finished the season with career highs in 2B, HR, and RBI.

One might assume, with balls flying out of the Skydome at such an alarming rate and from such unexpected sources, that Blue Jays pitchers were not quite as promising investments.  But that wasn't exactly the case.  When Spring Training began, many fantasy analysts didn't have a clue who was going to be in the Toronto rotation.  Doc Halladay was gone and the only other pitchers with significant track records - Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Dustin McGowan - were all coming off major injuries with uncertain timetables for recovery.  There was a three-headed competition for the closer's job, with no clear favorite.  Basically, you could've had any Blue Jays pitcher for a song.  And several were worth well more than that.

It took him until a week or so into the season, but Kevin Gregg eventually won the closer's job and compiled a nice total of saves (37), though with somewhat suspect rate numbers (3.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).  Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum became the team's co-Aces, and though their numbers were unspectacular, they were a solid addition to the backend of any fantasy staff.  Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow emerged as good in-season pickups.  Cecil didn't start the season in the majors, but ended up leading the team in wins, with 15.  His second-half was particularly strong (for a 24-year-old), as he went 8-2 with a 4.08 ERA.  Morrow spend the whole year in the rotation (save a brief stint on the DL), but he wasn't exactly drawing many suitors when his ERA sat a 6.80 on May 25th.  Thereafter, the converted reliever became one of the best strikeout artists in the American League, going 7-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 119 K in 101 innings.

But all that was last year, right?

Buck, Gonzalez, Gregg, and Marcum have all moved on to other teams, most of which don't offer quite as promising environs (Marcum is the exception).  Nobody's going to be sleeping on Bautista coming off his breakout year.  Wells is a notoriously risky investment who had tricked people before.  Do the 2011 Jays promise to have any sleepers?

Well, I think Morrow, Cecil, and Romero will all remain under value.  All are in their mid-twenties.  An additional step forward in the development process would be enough to make them borderline elite pitchers.  There's no guarantee that happens this year, but it could.  And you certainly won't have to pay for it.  In many leagues, because they play in Toronto, these pitchers will go completely unrecognized, even though their numbers are just as promising (if not moreso) than youngsters like Phil Hughes, Wade Davis, and Brian Matusz who will get much more attention.

Also, if you were paying attention at the beginning of last year, you'll recall that nobody was expecting Bautista and Wells to be the workhorses in the middle of the Jays lineup.  That duty was supposed to fall to Adam Lind and Aaron Hill.  These were guys who had even gotten some MVP consideration in 2009.  Both were coming off seasons of 35+ HR and 100+ RBI.  Both sputtered big time in 2010.  Although they still hit some homers (23 for Lind, 26 for Hill), neither managed to get his OBP above .300 or his average above .240, and all their other numbers suffered accordingly.  While it's probably true that neither should be expected to return to their '09 levels, both also suffered from some tremendously bad luck.  Steep dropoffs in BABIP (Hill had by far the lowest BABIP of any player in the majors) suggest they have a strong chance of getting back to somewhere between their '09 and '10 production.  If that means 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI with averages in the .270 range, you should be getting good value.

Toronto is a good place for players with power.  Last week, I included J. P. Arencibia among my top five fantasy rookies for exactly that reason.  Travis Snider and Edwin Encarnacion, though not rookies, are also potential beneficiaries.  Encarnacion hit five homers in the last four games of 2010.  Obviously, that's a small sample size, but he's a former top prospect who had been struggling with injuries.  Fully healthy and limited primarily to DH duties, the 28-year-old could be primed for a breakout year.  The Jays rushed Snider to the bigs (he played his first MLB game at age 20).  As a result, even though he's now just 23, many fantasy players will have forgotten about him.  Remember last winter how everybody had decided that 24-year-old Delmon Young was a flop?  Snider could follow that pattern.

Finally, one word about Jose Bautista.  There will be no shortage of leagues in which Jose Bautista, coming off his 54 HR season, will actually be underrated.  How could this be?  Well, of course, many cagey skeptics will conclude that he can't possible repeat that production.  Beware taking that rational too far.  The baseball season is long.  It's hard to stay consistent throughout, especially if you're a player who's playing above his abilities.  Evidence of "flukishness" will show up over the course of a season.  Weaknesses will be found and exploited.  Here's the thing though, Bautista's BABIP was actually substantially lower than his career average, so it's hard to argue he was getting lucky.  And here are his monthly totals:

April: 4 HR, 741 OPS
May: 12 HR, 1188 OPS
June: 4 HR, 692 OPS
July: 11 HR, 1183 OPS
August: 12 HR, 1173 OPS
September: 11 HR, 935 OPS

To me, this doesn't look like a guy who's suffering from overexposure as the season progresses.  As yet, there's no indication that the league has figured him out.  Could it happen in 2011?  Sure.  But I think it is equally likely that Bautista is once again at 45+ HR and 110+ RBI hitter who has multiple position eligibility.  Bautista's power surge was accompanied by sizable increases in his walk rate and a sizable decrease in his strikeout rate.  Those are talents which, once learned, generally don't just disappear.

ADDENDUM:  The Jays recently made official deals with Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel.  So it would appear, just like last year, Spring Training will probably feature a three-way competition for closing duties between Rauch, Dotel, and Jason Frasor.  Frasor actually won that competition last year, but was replaced in early April by Kevin Gregg, who held down the spot for most of the remaining season.  I don't think one of these guys is dramatically better than the others, but all have previous closing experience (with some modicum of success) and because of the uncertainty, they will all come on the cheap.  As somebody who always endorses prospecting for saves as late in your draft or auction as possible, you could do a lot worse than any (or all) of these guys, especially in deep leagues.

An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

The Baby Rays...er...Jays

The anchors at ESPN and sportswriters around the league have been quick to highlight the exploits of this season's most surprising franchises, namely the Padres, Reds, and Athletics.  But one team, which has been more or less the equal to all of them, has gone largely unappreciated: the Toronto Blue Jays.

As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League.  They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring.  Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum.  Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).

For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay.  I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.

So far, that hasn't been the case.  Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop.  In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity.  Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin).  Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind.  Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.

As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent.  Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.

On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs.  Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.

There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable.  Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace.  And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also.  But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold.  They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks.  The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.

The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate.  All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.

I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto.  Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team.  They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.

Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied.  Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457).  Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536).  That pretty much tells the story.  If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade.  As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.

Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year.  Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model.  The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future.  Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).

The fairy-tale ending is this.  In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract.  He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency.  If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.

There are still some familiar faces.  Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract.  Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16).  But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development.  Wallace provides legit power from first base.  The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field.  J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop.  The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.

If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture.  Is is realistic?  Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago.  During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs.  The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon.  They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost.  They'll need the Yankees to show some age.  They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected.  And they'll need a little luck.  But, hey, don't we all.  

The Albatrosses

It has become habit for me to refer to "contractual albatrosses," especially during these months, when teams are weighing their investment options. I was asked last week what exactly I meant by applying this term to several players on the Giants and what exactly qualifies. While I haven't fashioned anything more than a fast and loose definition, I can say that the albatross metaphor comes from the famous Samuel Coleridge poem, "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner," in which the narrator kills the bird, cursing himself and his crew, and is forced to wear the bird's corpse around his neck. As such, the albatross metaphor refers to a weighty burden or punishment of incredible duration. Attempting this explanation, of course, makes the baseball application seem a little ridiculous, but what I'm implying is that large, lengthy contracts given to players whose production wanes soon after signing can leave a franchise "wandering" for many years, economically crippled by overpriced commitments and shrinking revenues.

Here are what I see as the fifteen worst contracts in the major leagues going into the 2010 season. Some of these contracts haven't yet become irredeemable, but are on the verge of being.

15. Brad Lidge - RP - Philadelphia Phillies
3 yrs./$37.5 Mil. thru 2011 ($12.5 Mil. Opt./$1.5 Mil. Buyout)

He's one of the highest-paid closers in the game, yet he blew more saves than anybody in history in '09. There's still a very real chance he bounces back next year, but Phillies fans have to very nervous. Before Lidge's contract expires, Philadelphia will have to negotiate contracts with Jayson Werth, Cliff Lee, and Shane Victorino. If Lidge's contract prevents them from locking up any one of those guys, he had better be back to shutting the door with much greater frequency than he did in '09.

14. Michael Young - 3B - Texas Rangers
5 yrs./$80 Mil. thru 2013 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

Again, this shouldn't imply that Michael Young isn't a fine player. Perhaps he will earn every dollar of this deal, but coming out of '09 it raises some red flags. First of all, the Rangers proved that they are a borderline contender this season, but their ownership spiraled into bankruptcy and the team in unlikely to have much payroll flexibility this offseason or next. They have been forced to part ways with useful players like Marlon Byrd and Kevin Millwood. It was especially odd that the Rangers handed him this mega-deal than immediately admitted that they didn't know how he best fit into their long-term plans. They wisely moved him from shortstop in order to clear the way for Elvis Andrus, but now he may be blocking their ability to advance Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, and get the most out of Mike Lowell. It would appear to me, at least at this juncture, that although Young is a very good player, Texas paid marquee money, probably higher than his market value, which could've been used to fill more glaring needs on the pitching staff and at catcher.

13. Juan Pierre - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
5 yrs./$44 Mil. thru 2011 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

Juan Pierre has behaved like a saint in Los Angeles so far. First Andruw Jones, then Manny Ramirez pushed him into a reserve role (making him the most expensive pinch-runner in the National League). He, like Orlando Hudson, did not fuel any media controversy by criticizing his manager or demanding a trade, but you can tell he is itching to get back in a starting lineup. During Manny's suspension Pierre batted .318 with 32 R, 21 SB, and a .381 OBP, making a strong case that he could be helping any number of teams who are looking for a quality leadoff hitter. The problem is that he's still owned $18.5 Million over the next two seasons. He makes more money than Jimmy Rollins or Carl Crawford, meaning the Dodgers would have to eat some of it just to get rid of him. That could mean a lot more biding his time, stewing on the bench for Pierre.

12. Alex Rios - OF - Chicago White Sox
7 yrs./$70 Mil. thru 2014 ($13.5 Mil. Opt/$1 Mil. Buyout in '15, Limited No-Trade Clause)

Alex Rios is quite possibly the single most talented player on this list. He has all five tools and some of them in spades, but his offensive production has mysteriously dropped off a cliff since he signed this monster deal prior to the 2008 season in Toronto. Over the last three seasons his OPS+ has dropped from 122 to 111 to 80 (100 is average), despite the fact that at 28 years old, he is smack in the center of his so-called "prime." By picking him up off waivers in August, the White Sox gambled that Rios would find his stroke again in a new environment, while shoring up centerfield, which has been a festering sore on the South Side since Aaron Rowand left in '06. Rios defiantly failed in this task, batting .199 over his remaining 41 games. He has over $60 Million left on his contract, which is now exclusively the Chicago White Sox problem.

11. Oliver Perez - SP - New York Mets
3 yrs./$36 Mil. thru 2011

He made more money this season than Matt Cain, Dan Haren, and Cliff Lee combined. They each won fourteen games (and each would've won more, had they not suffered from poor run support), while Perez made fourteen starts and won three games. More to the point, the division rival Braves signed an almost identical contract (3 yrs./$34.5 Mil.) with Cy Young-contender Javier Vazquez. The rumors about the Wilpon's investments in the Madoff scandal suggest that the Mets won't be buying their way out of mistakes like these as they might've done in the past (or as their crosstown rival so often does). They enter next season with question marks at every position but third base and closer, as the health of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Johan Santana continue to be of concern. In the end, this may be the deal that defines Omar Minaya's legacy.

10. Jeff Suppan - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
4 yrs./$42 Mil. thru 2010 ($12.75 Mil. Opt./$2 Mil. Buyout in '11, Limited No-Trade Clause)

On a team filled with off-the-charts talent, Jeff Suppan is the highest-paid player. The Brewers may have a limited window of time in which to use their spectacular core (Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, Hart, Weeks, Parra, etc.) of homegrown players to make a serious run at a championship. They are one or two pitchers away from being as dangerous as the Phillies, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs. One wonders if it hadn't been for Suppan's contract whether they might've made a more serious run at resigning Sabathia, or maybe could be making a serious run at Halladay. By the end of next season, it may be too late for the "Baby Brewers"?

9. Jake Westbrook - SP - Cleveland Indians
3 yrs./$33 Mil. thru 2010

The Indians get a lot of press for being a well-run franchise. And it's true, this past season aside, they are routinely competitive despite coming from a small market. One wonders, however, what they might be like if they hadn't handed out their three biggest contracts to Jake Westbrook, Travis Hafner, and Kerry Wood. Westbrook has made only five starts since signing this deal. Next season he will attempt to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. Then he will become somebody else's problem...or, with his value suppressed, he'll sign elsewhere for cheap and be comeback player of the year in 2011. Either way, it's not a pretty picture for the Tribe.

8. Aaron Rowand - CF - San Francisco Giants
5 yrs./$60 Mil. thru 2012 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

Along with the Indians, they are the only team with multiple Albatrosses (and Edgar Renteria wasn't far from making this list), which makes it peculiar that Peter MacGowan was so eager to resign Brian Sabean. Rowand's tenure with the Giants hasn't been a total waste. He has kept himself in the lineup and plays solid defense. But when you consider what he gets paid, a 743 OPS over the past two seasons is a little discouraging. When the Giants handed him this deal, they were eager to make a splash after the ends of the Bonds era in the Bay Area, but they would be in such a better position had they held onto that money for a couple of years, dedicating it to going after a Texeira, a Holliday, or a Fielder, or to locking up Cain and Lincecum.

7. Travis Hafner - DH - Cleveland Indians
4 yrs./$57 Mil. thru 2012 ($13 Mil. Opt./$2.75 Mil. Buyout in '13, Limited No-Trade Clause)

Hafner is only 32, but thoses back-to-back 1000+ OPS seasons in '05 and '06 seem like a long time ago. Injuries have been the main problem, but one has to be concerned that repeated shoulder surgeries could sap Pronk's power permanently, much as they did Scott Rolen's. It rarely pays to make a full-time DH your keystone, but that's what the Indians chose to do. Since then, they've waved goodbye to C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, and Franklin Gutierrez. Coincidence?

6. Gary Matthews Jr. - OF - Los Angeles Angels
5 yrs./$50 Mil. thru 2011 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

In November of 2006, G-Matt was coming off easily the best season of his career, playing in the bandbox ballpark in Arlington. The Angels gambled that he was a late-bloomer. It turned out that 2006 was an abnormality and that Matthews Jr. was actually the journeyman fourth outfielder he appeared to be while playing for the Cubs, Padres, Pirates, Mets, and Orioles. Somehow the Angels missed that memo, so now they pay him $10,000,000 a year to play late-inning defense.

5. Alfonso Soriano - LF - Chicago Cubs
8 yrs./$136 Mil. thru 2014 (No-Trade Clause)

The Fonz moved up this list in a hurry in '09. Was this his "jumping the shark" moment? A repeat performance in 2010 could catapult him to the very top. But there is also the chance that this was a fluke, that he's still a legitimate $100 Million-Dollar Man. Cubs fans would probably tell you, however, that they aren't holding their breath.

4. Barry Zito - SP - San Francisco Giants
7 yrs./$126 Mil. thru 2013 (Vesting $18 Mil. Option for 2014 based on IP, No-Trade Clause)

This is probably the most famous albatross, largely because it was so clearly a mistake from the very moment the contract was signed. For the rest of his life Brian Sabean will wake up sweating with the cackling of horned versions of Scott Boras and Billy Beane still ringing in his ears. There is no way to look past the idiocy of this signing. All the signs were there. Everybody saw it, except for Sabean. But, at least Zito is going to make 30+ starts and pitching 180+ innings every year. He is the most overpaid innings-eater of all time. But those teams who signed similarly massive deals with Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Denny Neagle, and Chan Ho Park will tell you: be thankful for your innings, your double digit wins, and your league-average ERA. It could be a lot worse. You could've signed Carlos Silva...

3. Carlos Silva - SP - Seattle Mariners
4 yrs./$48 Mil. thru 2011 ($12 Mil. Opt./$2 Mil. Buyout in '12)

When Seattle signed Silva, they were under no illusion that he would be an Ace. What they though they were getting was exactly what Silva had given the Twins for the previous four seasons, an average of 31 starts, 12 wins, and 194 innings per season, with a thoroughly average ERA (4.42) and WHIP (1.36). One can certainly question whether even those numbers would've been worth $12 Million/year, but thusfar Seattle has received much less. In the first two years of his contract Silva has made only 34 starts, during which he has gone 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Mariners pay Silva $25.5 Million over the next two years not to pitch for them.

2. Eric Chavez - 3B - Oakland Athletics
6 yrs./$66 Mil. thru 2010 ($12.5 Mil. Opt./$3 Mil. Buyout for '11, Limited No-Trade Clause)

The good news for the A's is that it's almost over. The bad news is, Chavez's appearances have declined in every year since he signed his deal, culminating in a mere eight games and thirty at-bats in '09. He hasn't gotten to 350 AB since '06, the last time the A's were above .500. This is Billy Beane's nightmare. He had to choose one player to be the face of the franchise, the investment which would provide some stability on a roster subject to continual turnover. He could've had Miguel Tejada or Tim Hudson or Jermaine Dye or Barry Zito or Rich Harden or Nick Swisher. But he chose Eric Chavez. It could've been worst. He could've gone with Mark Mulder (remember him?).

1. Vernon Wells - CF - Toronto Blue Jays
7 yrs./$126 Mil. thru 2014 (No-Trade Clause)

When wells signed this extension in December of 2006, he was coming off a four season stretch in which he had maintained a very solid 853 OPS and averaged 29 HR and 97 RBI per year. He had also won three consecutive Gold Gloves. He had just turned 28. There was no reason for the Blue Jays to believe he wouldn't be their franchise player for many years to come. Unfortunately, that's not how it has worked out so far. Over the last three seasons Wells has managed only a 743 OPS, 16 HR, and 75 RBI. Worse yet, the contract was severely backloaded, so that Toronto will be forced to pay Wells $21-23 Million in each of the next four seasons, by the end of which, considering the steepness of his recent decline, there is a fairly high likelihood he won't even be a starter. Some have even suggested that the Blue Jays would be best served by simply eating much of his remaining salary either in a lopsided trade or by simply non-tendering him. Sadly, Vernon Wells may go down in history as the quintessential albatross, the most prohibitive contract ever signed.