Hey, New York, Who's Your Daddy?

As I sat, familiarly flabbergasted, amidst a bar full of equally frustrated strangers, and watched the Yankees deliver a barrage of singles, piling up runs at a tortuously slow pace, as Ron Washington tried pitcher after pitcher in an effort to tourniquet the ridiculous trickle of scoring, I recognized that, despite the fact that C. J. Wilson had absolutely stymied the most infamous lineup in baseball for seven innings and the Rangers had chased New York's only dominant pitcher in four innings, the series might well be over by the end of Game One.  Even if you attempt to adhere to that Curt Schilling credo, that Mystique and Aura are just dancers at a nightclub, you cannot deny that the Yankees have a habit of getting in their opponents heads.  For ages, of course, it was that way with the Red Sox (if you haven't already, hurry over to iTunes and watch ESPN's Four Days In October documentary).  More recently, it's been that way with the Twins.  And, now, I feared, they had the Rangers on their heels, ever waiting for New York to again assert their superiority by doing something truly improbable (like scoring five runs in an inning, off one of the best bullpens in baseball, without hitting an homer, indeed, with the help of only one extra-base hit).  If the Yankees had successfully quelled the Rangers aggressive, can-do spirit, this series would be over in five.

But that didn't happen.

Instead, Texas walked away from the game with the kind of impression which would make any sabermetrician proud: "They got lucky."  In baseball, no matter how good you are, the stringing together of seven consecutive baserunners is, to a significant degree, a matter of luck.  Brett Gardner reached on a grounder which would be an out, even with his speed, at least 80% of the time.  Jeter and A-Rod both hit the ball hard, but again, on the ground, and found that narrow, dangerous gap just inside the third base line.  Thames hit was a broken-bat dying quail.  If that bat stays whole, it's probably a line drive right at the left-fielder.  Certainly, there's nothing wrong with these kinds of hits and the Yankees made their luck possible by working counts and, in most cases, making fairly solid contact, but even they would tell you, they got some fortuitous breaks.  That night, when their inclination must've been to throw in the towel and, in the words of Pedro Martinez, call the Yankees their Daddy, Ron Washington and the Rangers instead observed that if they played hundred more games in which they entered the eighth with a five run lead, they'd probably win 95 of them.

On the bright side, they had hammered the Yankees only top-flight starting pitcher, C. C. Sabathia, and the Yankees had struggled against their second-best southpaw, C. J. Wilson.  When Colby Lewis went to work on the Yankees the next afternoon and his teammates again battered the New York starter, this time Phil Hughes, you could see several Rangers (most noticeably, Elvis Andrus) smirking in the seventh and eighth innings, as if to say, "If you're so good, why don't do it again?"  Facing several of the same pitchers they had chased less than 24 hours earlier, New York managed just one hit off the Rangers bullpen Sunday.  On Monday night, they got another taste of Rangers best southpaw, Cliff Lee, who, in the last two postseasons, has thusfar struck out 26 Yankees while allowing only 19 baserunners, making it clear that the only solution New York has for former Cleveland Indians lefties is to pay them $150 Million.

Certainly, the ALCS is far from over, but thankfully, the Rangers were immune to the massive momentum shift that could've followed their heartbreaking loss in Game One.  At this point, based on the pitching performances of the first three games and the fact that, setting aside that incredible eighth, the Yankees have scored only three runs to the Rangers twenty, one cannot see how the Yankees are favored in any of the next four games.  Tommy Hunter v. A. J. Burnett has the potential to be the first slugfest of the 2010 playoffs, which could go either way.  Sabathia will likely bounce back in Game Five, on normal rest, but there's no reason to believe New York's lineup will have any better answer for C. J. Wilson.  Same can be said for Colby Lewis in Game Six.  Most importantly, perhaps, Texas needs only one of the next three to assure that Cliff Lee gets back to the mound for Game Seven.

If anybody has gotten inside anybody else's head this postseason, it's Cliff Lee.  In fact, he's been inside the Yankees heads since last October.  In the clubhouse and on New York talk radio, Cliff Lee is discussed in hushed tones, like a marauding gunslinger.  That's why Brian Cashman pursued him with such fervor at the trade deadline, as much to keep him off another playoff team as to put him on theirs.  As he hung golden sombreros on Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames Monday night (and added a pair apiece for Posada, Granderson, and Teixeira), you could see by their expressions that this was a recurring nightmare come true.

If the ALCS goes to Game Seven, Rangers fans have every right to chant "Who's Your Daddy?" throughout the top half of every inning.  

A-Roid Bankrupted The Rangers, Now Is The Time For Vengeance (ALCS Preview)

Expanding upon the superlative "Narrative Likability" grade I gave the Rangers prior to the ALDS, let's look at three reasons why the Rangers deserve to beat the Yankees:

3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+."  He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays.  The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.

2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers.  New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams.  In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season.  The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million.  A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.

1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year.  That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004!  You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar.  We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.

Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:

3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason.  In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team.  They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average.  The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR).  I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS.  The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average.  In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks.  If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.

2.)  In the post-PED era, speed kills.  In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season.  The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%).  You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.

1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts.  For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games.  If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape.  Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA.  And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff.  C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia.  Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:

Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP

Was Sabathia really a better pitcher?  If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series.  So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Six)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Four)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the players in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the owners fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.