Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:


"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."


That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010.  Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer).  Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki).  And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck).  Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing.  Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.  


The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.  


1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL


Nothing's changed.  These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers.  I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.  


4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE


I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump.  Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star.  I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth.  The reason?  Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season?  It wasn't Posey.  It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann.  It was Geovany Soto.  He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI.  Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.


7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX


Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise.  I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).


11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA


These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates.  Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him.  If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter.  The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas.  The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues.  Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.  


14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS


You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable.  All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories.  You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.


19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL


This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates.  They're all fairly young.  They've all got some upside.  And they all seem in line for full-time jobs.  That could certainly change.  Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before.  They've always bombed.  But this could be the year, right?


23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB 


When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it.  Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG.  If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop.  Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone?  I bet you could.  Will you?


The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter.  He's still just 26.  The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.


30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS


These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects.  Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011.  Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim.  The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010.  Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada.  However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity.  Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.  


34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS


Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

Offseason Prospectus #15: The Washington Nationals

Bud Selig was so sure about moving the Expos out of Montreal. He was so sure that he forcefully promoted the relocation and even contraction for years, despite protests from fans and the players union, dissent from other teams and MLB executives, and even massive lawsuits, some which charged him with racketeering. In an unprecedented and ethically dubious arrangement, MLB actually owned and operated the Expos for three seasons from 2002 until 2004, after which they became the Washington Nationals. In Washington, where there would soon be a new stadium (opened in 2008), Selig assured us that the franchise would become popular, competitive, and profitable.

2009, the fifth full season of Washington Nationals baseball, was the worst yet. Not only did the Nats post their worst winning percentage (.364) since moving to D.C., it was the franchises worst performance since 1976. And the putrid on-field performance paled in comparison to the shenanigans of the front office. Before the season even began a scandal with there South American scouting led to a host of firings and the resignation of the General Manager. At midseason, the Nats also fired their field manager, Manny Acta, who has since signed on to manage the Cleveland Indians. Frustration with the direction of the team caused an alarming rate of fan attrition, as attendance dropped to its lowest rate ever. Only 1.8 million fans paid for Nats tickets in 2009, that's over a million less than in their first season of existence. On one particularly sad day in early June, Randy Johnson picked up his 300th win in front of a crowd so small that the Nationals refused to release the attendance figures. This, my friends, is not a franchise headed in the right direction.

Free Agents:

Livan Hernandez (35) RHSP

Mike MacDougal (33) RHRP

Austin Kearns (30) RF

Saul Rivera (32) RHRP

Ron Villone (40) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jason Bergmann (28) RHSP

Sean Burnett (27) RHRP

Jesus Flores (25) C

Wil Nieves (32) C

Scott Olsen (26) LHSP

Josh Willingham (31) LF

ETA 2010?:

Ian Desmond (24) SS

Justin Maxwell (26) OF

Stephen Strasburg (21) RHSP

Drew Storen (22) RHRP

Aaron Thompson (23) LHSP

Despite having one of the worst overall seasons in the franchise's history, there was one bright spot in 2009. Washington had earned the #1 pick in the June draft. With it, they selected what many believe to be the best pitching prospect of all time, the triple-digit phenom from San Diego State, Stephen Strasburg. Most scouts believe Strasburg is ready to pitch in the majors immediately. The fan base could use the thrill of seeing a massive talent every fifth game, but the Nats may choose to be cautious and slow his movement towards free agency by keeping him in the minors for a least a couple months (as the Rays did with Evan Longoria in '08 and Orioles did with Matt Wieters last season).

For much of the Nationals existence they have had to field a rotation of cast-offs and also-rans, relying heavily on guys like Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, and Tim Redding, pitchers who epitomize the AAAA player. Thankfully, after a number of high draft picks, the Nationals are ready to field a rotation with a lot of talent, though not a lot of experience. Strasburg (21) heads a group of freshman and sophomores which also includes Jordan Zimmerman (24), Ross Detwiler (24), Shairon Martis (23), Craig Stammen (25), and Aaron Thompson (23). All of these pitchers have the talent to become quality starters. It may not happen in 2010, but at least the potential is there and Nats fans can indulge a little hope every time out.

The veteran leadership will be provided by John Lannan (only 25), Scott Olsen (only 26), and recent, somewhat inexplicable free agent signing, Jason Marquis (31). What Marquis possesses is a rubber arm. He hardly every misses a start and he'll keep his team within striking distance for six innings a start. When the rest of the staff, including the bullpen, is young, such durability and consistency is valuable, even if the quality is, at best, league average. Lannan, on the other hand, is among the most unsung pitchers in the game. In two full seasons he has made 64 starts and posted a 3.89 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, very quality production for a player who just turned 25 and plays for a decrepit franchise. His upside is Mark Buehrle-esque.

The Nationals bullpen became a running joke during the first half of 2009, and it was one of the main reasons Manny Acta got himself fired. The Nats converted only 57% of their save opportunities in 'o9 (worst in MLB), and that number was even lower before they acquired Mike MacDougal, who went 20 for 21 from June 17 to the end of the season. They were also last in the majors in bullpen ERA (5.09). So, it makes sense that they performed a full overhaul, trading, releasing, or not re-signing eight players who pitched 25 or more relief innings in '09, including MacDougal. The question now is, who's going to eat those innings.

The Nats signed Matt Capps, presumably to close, but though he is younger and has more upside than MacDougal, he is also more expensive and was among the least efficient closers in all of baseball for Pittsburgh last year. Washington also added Doug Slaten and Brian Bruney to fill out the bullpen corps (and will have a look a Eddie Guardado during Spring Training), but will probably rely most heavily on the development of Tyler Clippard (2.69 ERA, 67 K in 60 IP in '09), Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, and their "other" 2009 first-rounder, Drew Storen.

Washington actually outscored traditional powerhouses like the Mets, Cubs, and Astros in '09, finishing in the middle of the pack in the NL. Adam Dunn did what he was paid to do, crushing 38 HR and driving in 105 runs. Ryan Zimmerman benefitted greatly from the improved protection, and at 24 posted his biggest season to date (.292, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 110 R, 888 OPS). Additionally, the Nats had to be pleasantly surprised by the production of Josh Willingham (24 HR, 863 OPS) and Nyjer Morgan (.369 OBP, 42 SB). If the Nats are to take a step forward offensively in '10, they will need those four to hold steady, and they will need improved production from Elijah Dukes and whoever is playing second base. It is unclear whether Washington has any more money to spend, but if they do, they could be bidders on the remaining middle-infielders, guys like Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, and Kelly Johnson. Or, more likely, they could go after a utilityman, perhaps Chad Tracy, Jerry Hairston, or Adam Kennedy.

The signing of Marquis and Capps surprised pundits this winter, but the biggest surprise was the signing of 38-year-old legendary backstop, Pudge Rodriguez, to a two-year, $6 Million contract. Pudge's numbers have been in consistent decline since 2006, which isn't surprising, considering his age and the toll of his position. In '09 he managed just a 663 OPS, but he still manages the running game (35% CS in '09) and handles the pitching staff. The logic of this signing will come down to how the Nats use him. If he is primarily Jesus Flores' backup, tutoring a youngster who is, at 25, one of the better young catching prospects in the game (he posted an 877 OPS in limited action in '09), than the signing makes a lot of sense. If Pudge cuts into Flores' development by demanding the bulk of the playing time, than his presence is counterproductive.

I think that the Washington faithful can look forward to small step in the right direction in 2010, but the Nats are a long way from flowering the way that Tampa Bay has in recent years. They have accumulated a nice selection of pitching prospects, but they need to promote their offense as well. Next offseason will be critical, as Adam Dunn and Christian Guzman will enter free agency, freeing up a lot of cash. What the front office does with it may determine whether the Nats head towards becoming the Rays or the Royals.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Nyjer Morgan (L)

SS Christian Guzman (S)

3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

1B Adam Dunn (L)

LF Josh Willingham (R)

RF Elijah Dukes (R)

C Jesus Flores (R)

2B Willie Harris (R)

SP John Lannan (L)

SP Scott Olsen (L)

SP Jason Marquis (R)

SP Stephen Strasburg (R)

SP Jordan Zimmerman (R)

CL Matt Capps (R)

SU Tyler Clippard (R)

SU Drew Storen (R)

MR Brian Bruney (R)

MR Sean Burnett (L)

LOOGY Doug Slaten (L)

MOP Jason Bergmann (R)

C Ivan Rodriguez (R)

2B/SS Alberto Gonzalez (R)

2B/3B Adam Kennedy (L) FA

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)

OF Justin Maxwell (R)