It was "The Year of the Pitcher" after all, so it should come as no surprise that this was easily the most difficult ballot to construct. Not so much at the top, since each league featured a pitcher who was at least a notch or two above the rest of the competition, but the rest of the ballot was a real struggle. In both leagues, there were at least a dozen players who I thought well worthy of consideration, but eventually, this is what I came up with.
American League:
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)
5. Jered Weaver (Angels)
For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar. He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate. He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop. Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."
4. David Price (Rays)
By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot. And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified. The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one. What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9). Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers. Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates. However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1). He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws. At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.
2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)
This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run. Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay. I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record. For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering). Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay. Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."
1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August. Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award. But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game. He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver. It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.
National League:
Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)
5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide. However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August. That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1). Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.
3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot. The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:
Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP
Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there." I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc. If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently. For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them. No easy feat.
Showing posts with label Roy Halladay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roy Halladay. Show all posts
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Thursday, October 14, 2010
The Best Pitcher's Duel You've Ever Seen?
It is quite possible that, from a purely aesthetic perspective, the Saturday night showdown between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum in the opening game of the NLCS will be the apex of the 2010 season. Certainly, the postseason drama, as always, will continue to escalate as the series moves forward. And, regardless of the outcome of Game 1, both teams will still be very much alive. However, you are unlikely to see a high-stakes matchup of better pitchers, in this, or any, postseason. It's hard to imagine a better showcase for the craft of pitching.
For starters, it is not unreasonable to call Halladay and Lincecum the two best pitchers in baseball at this particular moment. Perhaps, I take this too much for granted, as a longtime initiate to the "Cult of Halladay," but Doc was ubiquitously called "the best pitcher in baseball" throughout last offseason and since then all he's done is pitch a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, lead the NL in wins and innings (among other things), and (probably) win his second Cy Young.
The argument for Lincecum is less clear, as Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and C. C. Sabathia all have reasonably good cases for being called #2, but Lincecum's argument is as strong as anybody's and perhaps he gains a small advantage because a.) he's younger than all but Hernandez and b.) he's yet to show any real sign of weakness, having won Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons and likely finishing very high in the voting again this year.
Over the last three seasons, this is how Halladay and Lincecum rank in a number of key pitching categories (among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings during that span).
Wins: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
ERA: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
WHIP: Halladay #1, Lincecum #10
Strikeouts: Lincecum #1, Halladay #5
Innings: Halladay #1, Lincecum #7
ERA+: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
QS%: Lincecum #2, Halladay #4
Shutouts: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Complete Games: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
K/9: Lincecum #1, Halladay #34
BB/9: Halladay #1, Lincecum #67
HR/9: Lincecum #3, Halladay #26
K/BB: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
OPS Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #7
OPS+ Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #4
Wins Above Replacement: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Average Game Score: Halladay & Lincecum tied for #1
Whether you favor the Freak over Lee, King Felix, and the Big Sleep is really inconsequential. Pitchers of this caliber just don't get together very often. In the entirety of the 2010 season, there was only one occasion when two of the five pitchers mentioned above took the mound against one another. Sabathia and Halladay squared off in an interleague game in June (Sabathia got the victory, in case you were wondering).
One might expect it to happen more frequently in the playoffs, as teams are more likely to have time to set their rotations and there is a greater preponderance of Aces. However, that isn't necessarily the case. For one thing, the preeminent pitchers in the league aren't always around to participate. We're all aware of Halladay's long suffering. This is Lincecum's first trip to the playoffs as well. Cliff Lee didn't make it until last season and Hernandez still hasn't been. Cy Young and Walter Johnson each got only two shots at championships. Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Warren Spahn just three. Roger Clemens didn't start making annual appearances in October until his mid-thirties, by which point, though still great, he wasn't really at the height of his powers. In recent memory there are only a few duels which rival the one we're anticipating on Saturday.
In the 1998 NLCS, Kevin Brown got the call against Tom Glavine in Game 2. Glavine and Brown would finish 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting that year (with reliever Trevor Hoffman separating them) and both were dead in the center of their primes (it's easy to forget how good Kevin Brown was from '96 to '00). The title "best pitcher in baseball," however, was still a toss up between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, so it isn't quite the same. It was a great game though. Brown tossed a shutout and struck out 11 Braves. Glavine gave up only one run in six innings, but took the loss.
Sadly, Maddux and Martinez never faced each other in the postseason. Maddux did, however, get a shot at Randy Johnson in Game 1 of the 2001 NLCS. Johnson had just earned the third of his four straight NL Cy Youngs and was getting the ball rolling on what would be a notoriously great run of postseason starts. Though Maddux was probably not the same pitcher he was when he won four consecutive Cys, his powers were not dramatically diminished and it would be another four years before he won less than 15 games in a season. This was another game that lived up to its billing. Johnson delivered a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts, while Maddux went seven strong and lost 2-0.
Probably the most famous showdown of this variety came in 1963, when on two occasions Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, both of whom had led their respective leagues in victories that season, shared the mound for games one and four of the World Series. In the opener, Koufax's infamous 15-K outing, the Dodgers roughed up Ford early and he only lasted five innings. But the finale (it was a Dodgers sweep) saw both pitchers allow just a single earned run. Ford allowed only two hits in seven innings, but a crucial error by Joe Pepitone (who let a throw get away from him on a routine groundout) set up a sacrifice fly, which was all Koufax needed to polish off the '63 Yankees for good.
(Yes, I am implicitly comparing Roy Halladay to Sandy Koufax. No, I don't think it's an exaggeration.)
As was the case for Maddux v. Johnson and, to a lesser extent, for Koufax v. Ford, what makes Lincecum v. Halladay even more exciting is the fact that these two pitchers, though both at the pinnacle of their profession, have dramatically different personalities and pitching styles. Halladay is, of course, famously unflappable. Ever calm and workmanlike, Doc's dedication to routine sometimes makes him seem robotic. In interviews following the no-hitter he threw last week, in his first postseason start, he still spoke in an unwavering monotone. After the final out was recorded, his feet never left the ground, there wasn't so much as a fist pump (the kind of thing which we see from many pitchers at the end of a routine inning). He stood and smiled while Carlos Ruiz and his teammates celebrated his accomplishment giddily, looking all the while a little claustrophobic and uncertain whether it really warranted all the fuss.
Lincecum, on the other hand, is unabashedly emotive. He can't restrain himself from cursing on live television. In the last week he's looked like a kid in the midst of a prolonged sugar rush and the adrenaline even effected his ability to locate his pitches in the first inning of his NLDS start (he got over it quickly, obviously).
As a closer reading of the stats listed above reveals, though both are extremely effective, they go about their business in very different ways. Lincecum is the epitome of the power pitcher. Although he can occasionally finish a game, as he did during the NLDS, he relies heavily on the strikeout and is thus prone to higher pitchcounts and occasional wildness. Halladay is certainly no slouch when it comes to getting a necessary strikeout, but he relies much more heavily on the defense behind him, almost never allows free passes, and takes great pride in finishing games. As a result, of course, he gives up more hits and more homers. Hitters come to the plate knowing he is going to have to throw strikes, so they are prepared to hack. For Halladay, who has extraordinary movement on all his pitches, this often works to his advantage.
Adding even a little more excitement is the fact that Halladay and Lincecum are both streaking right now. Obviously, the are both coming off outings which were among the best in playoff history. You've probably heard all about it. But, it goes back even further than that. Halladay threw a two-hit shutout in his previous outing, to clinch the Phillies division title. He has won each of his last six starts, and from July on is 13-3 with a 2.34 ERA. Lincecum suffered probably the worst month of his young career in August, but rebounded in a major way in September. In his last seven starts he is 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K in 51 innings. Clearly, neither is in the mood to lose.
There is, of course, always the possibility that one or both of these dominant Aces won't respond well to the prolonged rest, the hype, or, for whatever reason, won't have their best stuff. We could end up seeing a 10-8 slugfest on Saturday...but I doubt it. This is an extraordinarily rare opportunity to see two superlative players, at the height of their abilities, pitching against each other on the biggest stage.
Or you could watch college football. Jackasses.
For starters, it is not unreasonable to call Halladay and Lincecum the two best pitchers in baseball at this particular moment. Perhaps, I take this too much for granted, as a longtime initiate to the "Cult of Halladay," but Doc was ubiquitously called "the best pitcher in baseball" throughout last offseason and since then all he's done is pitch a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, lead the NL in wins and innings (among other things), and (probably) win his second Cy Young.
The argument for Lincecum is less clear, as Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and C. C. Sabathia all have reasonably good cases for being called #2, but Lincecum's argument is as strong as anybody's and perhaps he gains a small advantage because a.) he's younger than all but Hernandez and b.) he's yet to show any real sign of weakness, having won Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons and likely finishing very high in the voting again this year.
Over the last three seasons, this is how Halladay and Lincecum rank in a number of key pitching categories (among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings during that span).
Wins: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
ERA: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
WHIP: Halladay #1, Lincecum #10
Strikeouts: Lincecum #1, Halladay #5
Innings: Halladay #1, Lincecum #7
ERA+: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
QS%: Lincecum #2, Halladay #4
Shutouts: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Complete Games: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
K/9: Lincecum #1, Halladay #34
BB/9: Halladay #1, Lincecum #67
HR/9: Lincecum #3, Halladay #26
K/BB: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
OPS Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #7
OPS+ Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #4
Wins Above Replacement: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Average Game Score: Halladay & Lincecum tied for #1
Whether you favor the Freak over Lee, King Felix, and the Big Sleep is really inconsequential. Pitchers of this caliber just don't get together very often. In the entirety of the 2010 season, there was only one occasion when two of the five pitchers mentioned above took the mound against one another. Sabathia and Halladay squared off in an interleague game in June (Sabathia got the victory, in case you were wondering).
One might expect it to happen more frequently in the playoffs, as teams are more likely to have time to set their rotations and there is a greater preponderance of Aces. However, that isn't necessarily the case. For one thing, the preeminent pitchers in the league aren't always around to participate. We're all aware of Halladay's long suffering. This is Lincecum's first trip to the playoffs as well. Cliff Lee didn't make it until last season and Hernandez still hasn't been. Cy Young and Walter Johnson each got only two shots at championships. Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Warren Spahn just three. Roger Clemens didn't start making annual appearances in October until his mid-thirties, by which point, though still great, he wasn't really at the height of his powers. In recent memory there are only a few duels which rival the one we're anticipating on Saturday.
In the 1998 NLCS, Kevin Brown got the call against Tom Glavine in Game 2. Glavine and Brown would finish 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting that year (with reliever Trevor Hoffman separating them) and both were dead in the center of their primes (it's easy to forget how good Kevin Brown was from '96 to '00). The title "best pitcher in baseball," however, was still a toss up between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, so it isn't quite the same. It was a great game though. Brown tossed a shutout and struck out 11 Braves. Glavine gave up only one run in six innings, but took the loss.
Sadly, Maddux and Martinez never faced each other in the postseason. Maddux did, however, get a shot at Randy Johnson in Game 1 of the 2001 NLCS. Johnson had just earned the third of his four straight NL Cy Youngs and was getting the ball rolling on what would be a notoriously great run of postseason starts. Though Maddux was probably not the same pitcher he was when he won four consecutive Cys, his powers were not dramatically diminished and it would be another four years before he won less than 15 games in a season. This was another game that lived up to its billing. Johnson delivered a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts, while Maddux went seven strong and lost 2-0.
Probably the most famous showdown of this variety came in 1963, when on two occasions Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, both of whom had led their respective leagues in victories that season, shared the mound for games one and four of the World Series. In the opener, Koufax's infamous 15-K outing, the Dodgers roughed up Ford early and he only lasted five innings. But the finale (it was a Dodgers sweep) saw both pitchers allow just a single earned run. Ford allowed only two hits in seven innings, but a crucial error by Joe Pepitone (who let a throw get away from him on a routine groundout) set up a sacrifice fly, which was all Koufax needed to polish off the '63 Yankees for good.
(Yes, I am implicitly comparing Roy Halladay to Sandy Koufax. No, I don't think it's an exaggeration.)
As was the case for Maddux v. Johnson and, to a lesser extent, for Koufax v. Ford, what makes Lincecum v. Halladay even more exciting is the fact that these two pitchers, though both at the pinnacle of their profession, have dramatically different personalities and pitching styles. Halladay is, of course, famously unflappable. Ever calm and workmanlike, Doc's dedication to routine sometimes makes him seem robotic. In interviews following the no-hitter he threw last week, in his first postseason start, he still spoke in an unwavering monotone. After the final out was recorded, his feet never left the ground, there wasn't so much as a fist pump (the kind of thing which we see from many pitchers at the end of a routine inning). He stood and smiled while Carlos Ruiz and his teammates celebrated his accomplishment giddily, looking all the while a little claustrophobic and uncertain whether it really warranted all the fuss.
Lincecum, on the other hand, is unabashedly emotive. He can't restrain himself from cursing on live television. In the last week he's looked like a kid in the midst of a prolonged sugar rush and the adrenaline even effected his ability to locate his pitches in the first inning of his NLDS start (he got over it quickly, obviously).
As a closer reading of the stats listed above reveals, though both are extremely effective, they go about their business in very different ways. Lincecum is the epitome of the power pitcher. Although he can occasionally finish a game, as he did during the NLDS, he relies heavily on the strikeout and is thus prone to higher pitchcounts and occasional wildness. Halladay is certainly no slouch when it comes to getting a necessary strikeout, but he relies much more heavily on the defense behind him, almost never allows free passes, and takes great pride in finishing games. As a result, of course, he gives up more hits and more homers. Hitters come to the plate knowing he is going to have to throw strikes, so they are prepared to hack. For Halladay, who has extraordinary movement on all his pitches, this often works to his advantage.
Adding even a little more excitement is the fact that Halladay and Lincecum are both streaking right now. Obviously, the are both coming off outings which were among the best in playoff history. You've probably heard all about it. But, it goes back even further than that. Halladay threw a two-hit shutout in his previous outing, to clinch the Phillies division title. He has won each of his last six starts, and from July on is 13-3 with a 2.34 ERA. Lincecum suffered probably the worst month of his young career in August, but rebounded in a major way in September. In his last seven starts he is 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K in 51 innings. Clearly, neither is in the mood to lose.
There is, of course, always the possibility that one or both of these dominant Aces won't respond well to the prolonged rest, the hype, or, for whatever reason, won't have their best stuff. We could end up seeing a 10-8 slugfest on Saturday...but I doubt it. This is an extraordinarily rare opportunity to see two superlative players, at the height of their abilities, pitching against each other on the biggest stage.
Or you could watch college football. Jackasses.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Narrative Likability Factor & The Philadelphia Phillies
As I write, the Phillies and Roy Halladay have taken a commanding lead over the Nationals and are now about a dozen outs from clinching their fourth consecutive NL East title. The Phillies were clearly the NL favorites heading into the 2010 season and, sporting the best record in the league following another scorching September, there seems little cause for that to change. The Phillies have won the last two NL pennants, as well as the World Series in 2008. The lineup featuring Rollins, Utley, Howard, Werth, and Victorino is as familiar to fans across the nation as those in Boston and New York. So, it's probably time for somebody else to get a chance, right? "Likable narratives" don't generally feature dynasties like this. However, there are still a few reasons to get behind the Phightin' Phils:
- A Little Piece of History: If the Phillies represent the NL for the third consecutive season, they will be the first three-peat NL Champs since 1944 (Cardinals). It's kind of an odd little piece of trivia, but the National League has not featured many true "dynasty"-type ballclubs, with the ability to go the distance year after year after year. Even the Big Red Machine of the '70s couldn't manage three in a row, nor could the Bob Gibson's Cardinals or the We Are Family Pirates. No NL team in the integration era has done it, so it would be a pretty major accomplishment.
- Injury Sminjury: Most of the time, when a team that is expected to contend fails to do so, the explanation is a rash of ill-timed injuries. In just this season, that excuse has been pervasively applied to the Red Sox, Rockies, Cubs, and Mets. But arguably no team was more flea-bitten this year than the Phils. Only two players in their starting lineup, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, will manage to make over 150 starts, while their All-Star middle infielders, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, have each been severely limited (less than 120 games apiece). Through it all, the Phillies have not allowed themselves to play like an accursed team and they are going to end up posting their best record since 1993.
- Polly, Ribby, & The Wizard of Oz: Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez, and Roy Oswalt are all long-time major-league veterans who have played in several postseasons and at least one World Series, but haven't yet taken home the ultimate hardware. The big draw of Philadelphia, for each of them, was the realistic opportunity to chase rings. These are, by all accounts, gentlemen, each with underdog qualities - Polanco is a scrappy, undersized utility-man, Ibanez was a late-bloomer, Oswalt is short - and they are difficult to root against.
- Doc Halladay: Now, let me give you your monthly dose of Halladay hysteria. He's definitely the best active pitcher who has never participated in a postseason game. He's one of the greatest of all time. He came to Philadelphia last winter confronted with the utmost of expectations. With the vaunted Philadelphia offense, he was expected to win 20+ games. Without the designated hitter, he was expected to throw 250+ innings and have an ERA under 2.50. And, with his long history of playing in the AL East, he was expected to be Philadelphia's best weapon against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays in the World Series. Well, he just threw a complete-game shutout to clinch the NL East. In the process, he picked up his 21st win, his 251st inning, and brought his ERA to 2.43. In the 64 years since baseball was integrated, there have been only 47 seasons of that quality. So, those were some pretty high expectations. Now, he's going after the biggest of all.
Much as I love Doc, I don't think I can root for a reigning champ; that is, unless they come up against the other reigning champ, which is obviously where the Vegas money is being laid. So, the Phils get a little boost for being the most likely dragonslayer.
Narrative Likability Factor: C+
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Notes on Halladay's Perfecto
- As is usually the case with no-hitters, the fates conspired. For one thing, home plate umpire Mike Dimuro got seduced by the occasion. He called one of the largest strike-zones I've seen all season, and it got wider as the game progressed. He did call it both ways, as Josh Johnson and Leo Nunez used it to their benefit as well, but when a pitcher like Halladay is given several additional inches of plate, he's not likely to make many mistakes.
- I also found myself wondering, when the Phillies had men on base in the sixth and seventh, whether a rally would prevent our seeing history. More than any pitcher I've ever watched, Doc changes his pitching style when he has a three or four run lead. Both the zone and the depth of his arsenal are intentionally diminished, at least until his opponent proves they can put men on base. Doc is also, clearly, a slave to his own routine. I had a hard time believing he would change this strategy (one which is an essential part of his ability to pitch deep into games) even in the pursuit of history. The Phillies hitting slump became something of a boon for fans eager to see Halladay go for pefection.
- To that effect, although Halladay dramatically changed the team's momentum, something which is expected from a true Ace, the Phillies are still mired in an uncharacteristically meager period of offensive production. The only run against Josh Johnson and the Marlins came via a Cameron Maybin error, so the Phillies have now failed to score an earned run in five of their last seven games. The last time Philadelphia scored more than five runs was May 17 against the Pirates.
- The Phillies defense was never really tested. Juan Castro and Wilkin Valdez had to make some long, strong throws to retire speedy Marlins, but there were no diving plays, no leaping catchs, no jump-throws. All 27 outs were more or less routine.
- How did Halladay's perfecto stack up against the nineteen which preceded it? Halladay is only the sixth pitcher to throw a perfect game with eleven or more strikeouts. The others are Randy Johnson, David Wells, Len Barker, Catfish Hunter, and Sandy Koufax. A pretty elite company.
- Halladay is only the fourth pitcher to require as many as 115 pitches to complete his masterpiece. The others were Johnson, Wells, and Mark Buehrle.
- Halladay is the first right-handed pitcher to throw a perfect game since David Cone accomplished the fete in July of 1999.
- Halladay is the first pitcher to hurl a perfect game with only a one-run advantage since Tom Browning in September 1988. Koufax, Mike Witt, Addie Joss, and Lee Richmond also won their perfectos 1-0.
- It is probably mere coincidence, but the number of no-hitters and perfect games over the last two seasons may be read as part of the transition into an era of pitching. There have not been two perfect games thrown in the same month since June of 1880 and there has never been three perfect games thrown in as close proximity as those by Halladay, Braden, and Buehrle (311 days). The closest prior to it was a span of just under four years from '64 to '68 that featured perfectos by Koufax, Hunter, and Jim Bunning. That was, coincidently, an era of pitching dominance which inspired the lowering of the mound.
- If we expand our consideration to include no-hitters, there have now been three in the span of 43 days. That hasn't happened since 1991, when Dennis Martinez, Wilson Alvarez, and Bret Saberhagen each threw one in just under a month. '91 was also the last time we had more than three no-hitters in a single season (there were seven!). There have been ten no-hitters in the last four seasons ('07-'10), compared to only four in the previous four seasons ('03-'06).
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
The Baby Rays...er...Jays
The anchors at ESPN and sportswriters around the league have been quick to highlight the exploits of this season's most surprising franchises, namely the Padres, Reds, and Athletics. But one team, which has been more or less the equal to all of them, has gone largely unappreciated: the Toronto Blue Jays.
As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League. They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring. Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum. Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).
For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay. I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.
So far, that hasn't been the case. Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop. In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity. Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin). Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind. Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.
As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent. Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.
On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs. Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.
There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable. Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace. And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also. But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold. They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks. The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.
The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play). They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate. All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.
I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto. Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team. They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.
Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied. Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457). Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536). That pretty much tells the story. If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade. As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.
Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year. Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model. The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future. Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).
The fairy-tale ending is this. In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract. He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency. If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.
There are still some familiar faces. Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16). But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development. Wallace provides legit power from first base. The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field. J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop. The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.
If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture. Is is realistic? Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago. During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs. The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon. They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost. They'll need the Yankees to show some age. They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected. And they'll need a little luck. But, hey, don't we all.
As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League. They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring. Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum. Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).
For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay. I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.
So far, that hasn't been the case. Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop. In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity. Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin). Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind. Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.
As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent. Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.
On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs. Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.
There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable. Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace. And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also. But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold. They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks. The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.
The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play). They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate. All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.
I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto. Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team. They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.
Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied. Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457). Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536). That pretty much tells the story. If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade. As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.
Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year. Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model. The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future. Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).
The fairy-tale ending is this. In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract. He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency. If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.
There are still some familiar faces. Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16). But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development. Wallace provides legit power from first base. The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field. J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop. The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.
If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture. Is is realistic? Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago. During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs. The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon. They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost. They'll need the Yankees to show some age. They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected. And they'll need a little luck. But, hey, don't we all.
Thursday, May 06, 2010
A Phillies Statement?
I won't argue that a four-game series at the beginning of May has any bearing on October, but the Phillies certainly entered their home series with the Cardinals this week as though they had something to prove. The Phillies and Cardinals both came into the season as presumptive favorites in the NL and, no offense to the Giants and Padres, they've lived up to that billing, leading their respective divisions.
The Phillies manhandled the Cardinals this week, however, winning three out of four, despite being at a seeming disadvantage coming into the series. The Cardinals entered the game having won eight of their last nine and sporting a healthy roster, with only utilityman, Felipe Lopez, on the D.L. The Phillies, on the other hand, sent their closer, Ryan Madsen, and a starter, J. A. Happ, to the D.L. just prior to the series, and are still playing without their captain, Jimmy Rollins. They were just in 4-6 in their ten games prior to St. Louis' arrival and, since placing Rollins on the D.L. following their 7-1 start, Philadelphia had a losing record (7-9). One might have said, prior to the series, that the Cardinals were catching Philadelphia at the right time.
The Phillies manhandled the Cardinals this week, however, winning three out of four, despite being at a seeming disadvantage coming into the series. The Cardinals entered the game having won eight of their last nine and sporting a healthy roster, with only utilityman, Felipe Lopez, on the D.L. The Phillies, on the other hand, sent their closer, Ryan Madsen, and a starter, J. A. Happ, to the D.L. just prior to the series, and are still playing without their captain, Jimmy Rollins. They were just in 4-6 in their ten games prior to St. Louis' arrival and, since placing Rollins on the D.L. following their 7-1 start, Philadelphia had a losing record (7-9). One might have said, prior to the series, that the Cardinals were catching Philadelphia at the right time.
The Phils did get a little lucky in that they managed to miss Chris Carpenter (4-0, 2.84 ERA). Even so, they didn't have a favorable pitching matchup until today, when Doc Halladay took the mound against the Cardinals worst starter, Kyle Lohse. On Monday, in his first start back from the D.L., Joe Blanton performed admirably against a tough opponent, matching up with Jaime Garcia (3-1, 1.13 ERA), who has been among the most dominant starters in baseball early in 2010. Then, Cole Hamels battled Carpenter's co-Ace, Adam Wainwright (4-1, 1.96 ERA), to a standstill on Tuesday, in a game the Phillies eventually won in extra innings. Philadelphia handed a loss to Brad Penny on Wednesday. He had entered the game with a 1.56 ERA. Kyle Kendrick got his first win of the year, following seven shutout innings. He had entered the game with a 7.61 ERA.
The key to beating good pitchers in this series was making them work in every inning. Nine different Phillies drove in runs in the series. On Tuesday, Raul Ibanez made Wainwright throw 18 pitches over the course of three plate appearances prior to hitting the triple that led to the Phillies only run against him. On Thursday, Wilson Valdez didn't aid in the production of any runs, but saw 19 pitches in four at-bats, and doubled in his final opportunity.
Thursday's game featured only the second meeting between this generation's best hitter, Albert Pujols, and their best pitcher, Roy Halladay. The first time, back in 2005, Halladay threw a complete game and Prince Albert went 0-for-4 with three groundouts. This time out, Halladay pitched around some sloppy defense, managed seven strong innings, and King Albert went 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI. In the fifth, with man on second and third, Pujols took a very close pitch in a 3-2 count and was blessed with a free pass. The pitch would likely have been called a strike against almost any other hitter. Doc proceeded to strike out Matt Holliday with the bases loaded. No damage done. In the seventh Pujols again came up with men on base. This time he laced an RBI single through the left side.
Like I said before, I'm not ready to make any assumptions about these potential NLCS opponents based on this series, but it was clearly a matchup of two very high quality ballclubs, each of whom wanted to assert themselves as the class of the National League. Anybody who believed the Phillies rough stretch sans J-Roll was an indication of weakness should take note: the Phillies remain a powerhouse, having won five out of seven against the Cardinals and the divisional rival Mets. I look forward to seeing these teams square off again, and I won't half to wait until the playoffs. Philadelphia travels to St. Louis for a four-game set in the middle of July.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter
In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season. My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
The Cult of Halladay
I gave myself over to him completely on April 13, 2007. In the fourth inning of a game against the Tigers, I realized that short of sex and drugs, there's nothing more pleasurable than watching Roy Halladay pitch. The Tigers of '07, you may recall, were coming off an AL Pennant, and had a monster offense which would go on to finish second in the AL in runs scored. In the fourth, Halladay was facing the meat of it for the second time: Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen. A trio of professional hitters who would proceed to drive in 316 runs that season.
The inning got off to an auspicious start when Sheffield, clearly aware that whatever Halladay offered him was going to be in the zone, grounded a single through the right side on the first pitch of the at-bat, bringing Ordonez, who had already homered off Halladay in the second, to the plate with a man on. Magglio won the batting title and finished second in the AL MVP voting that year. He was clearly one of the most feared hitters in the league, but the moment he stepped into the box, Halladay ran a cut fastball across the inside half of the plate, right in his power zone, and Ordonez didn't even flinch. The next pitch was a sinker diving toward the outside corner and Ordonez slapped it weakly to John McDonald who turned an easy 6-4-3 double play. One pitch later, after Guillen bounced a cutter off the front side of the plate, allowing Greg Zaun to throw him out a first, Halladay was walking off the mound having retired one of the most lethal threesomes in the sport on a grand total of four pitches. He would proceed to win the game by throwing a ten-inning complete-game which featured just two strikeouts and required only 107 pitches.
I can't say I really discovered the joy of Halladay until 2005, which was the year he joined my fantasy team in the longest-running keeper league I participate in. He'd already won his Cy Young by that point, so of course I was aware of him, but I hadn't ever made any sort of effort to watch him pitch. After all, he played for the profoundly mediocre Blue Jays. By May, however, Halladay's starts had become a part of my weekly rountine. Doc was cruising and in July he was named the AL starter for the All-Star game, two days before a Kevin Mench line drive broke his leg. Halladay almost certainly would've won his second Cy Young that season, considering that the eventual field of candidates was rather weak (Bartolo Colon won with a 21-8 record and a 3.48 ERA) and at the All-Start break Doc had a 2.41 ERA and was on pace for 21 wins and 254 innings.
Since '05 I've missed only a handful of Halladay's starts and count myself among the growing number of baseball fans who are mesmerized by every pitch. The Cult of Halladay is going to be adding many new members in 2010. He graced the cover of Sports Illustrated last week (check out the excellent article about Halladay's career and vaunted work ethic) and when he takes the mound for the Phillies on Opening Day he will be introduced to one of the sport's larger media markets.
The inning got off to an auspicious start when Sheffield, clearly aware that whatever Halladay offered him was going to be in the zone, grounded a single through the right side on the first pitch of the at-bat, bringing Ordonez, who had already homered off Halladay in the second, to the plate with a man on. Magglio won the batting title and finished second in the AL MVP voting that year. He was clearly one of the most feared hitters in the league, but the moment he stepped into the box, Halladay ran a cut fastball across the inside half of the plate, right in his power zone, and Ordonez didn't even flinch. The next pitch was a sinker diving toward the outside corner and Ordonez slapped it weakly to John McDonald who turned an easy 6-4-3 double play. One pitch later, after Guillen bounced a cutter off the front side of the plate, allowing Greg Zaun to throw him out a first, Halladay was walking off the mound having retired one of the most lethal threesomes in the sport on a grand total of four pitches. He would proceed to win the game by throwing a ten-inning complete-game which featured just two strikeouts and required only 107 pitches.
I can't say I really discovered the joy of Halladay until 2005, which was the year he joined my fantasy team in the longest-running keeper league I participate in. He'd already won his Cy Young by that point, so of course I was aware of him, but I hadn't ever made any sort of effort to watch him pitch. After all, he played for the profoundly mediocre Blue Jays. By May, however, Halladay's starts had become a part of my weekly rountine. Doc was cruising and in July he was named the AL starter for the All-Star game, two days before a Kevin Mench line drive broke his leg. Halladay almost certainly would've won his second Cy Young that season, considering that the eventual field of candidates was rather weak (Bartolo Colon won with a 21-8 record and a 3.48 ERA) and at the All-Start break Doc had a 2.41 ERA and was on pace for 21 wins and 254 innings.
Since '05 I've missed only a handful of Halladay's starts and count myself among the growing number of baseball fans who are mesmerized by every pitch. The Cult of Halladay is going to be adding many new members in 2010. He graced the cover of Sports Illustrated last week (check out the excellent article about Halladay's career and vaunted work ethic) and when he takes the mound for the Phillies on Opening Day he will be introduced to one of the sport's larger media markets.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Roy Halladay Is Gonna Love the National League (NL East Preview)
It's almost too obvious predicting that Roy Halladay will become the fourth pitcher in baseball history to win a Cy Young in both leagues (following in the footsteps of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Roger Clemens). Last year he had a 0.90 ERA in interleague play. For his career he's 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA against NL teams, 8-4 against clubs in the NL East. As good as he was against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in '09 (6-7, 2.97 ERA), he was even better against everybody else (11-3, 2.62 ERA). He's a pitcher perfectly primed for a career year. He's at the tail end of his prime (33), widely considered among the smartest pitchers in the game, facing a league that's unfamiliar with him, pitching in front of a very good defense for a team that scores a ton of runs, and is determined to go to his first postseason ever. It would seem, certainly, that the stars are aligned.
Halladay's run at history aside, the Phillies look to me like the only truly easy pick in baseball. This can certainly be a jinx. Last year the Cubs looked like runaway favorites in the NL Central. A couple years ago pretty much everybody thought the Tigers would storm their way through a weak AL Central. The Phillies will half to fight off complacency following two straight pennants, and Halladay's determination to pitch in October should help a great deal.
Halladay's run at history aside, the Phillies look to me like the only truly easy pick in baseball. This can certainly be a jinx. Last year the Cubs looked like runaway favorites in the NL Central. A couple years ago pretty much everybody thought the Tigers would storm their way through a weak AL Central. The Phillies will half to fight off complacency following two straight pennants, and Halladay's determination to pitch in October should help a great deal.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "Mark Buehrle may not be much to look at, but he's got a great personality." (Starting Pitcher Preview)
Rather than ranking hundreds of pitchers in a fashion which can be frustrating to manage during your draft or auction, I suggest grouping pitchers according to types. This can be done in a number of ways, not necessarily exclusively those that I've outlined below, but I like to aim for getting at least one pitcher from each of my tiers (with the exception of #7, where I've put a number of guys who I will be flat-out ignoring). You can still take a second or third guy from any one of the categories, if it fits your strategy or they are being undervalued, but this method will protect you somewhat from ending up with too many injury risks, too many unproven youngsters, too many low-strikeout veterans, or overspending on pitching in the early rounds. It's not a perfect system, but I can boast that in the keeper league I invented it for I have now led the league in pitching staff scoring for three consecutive seasons, even though I only spend about 25% of my money on pitching.
Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft. Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group. However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11). You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.
#1: Bonafide Aces
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows. Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft. There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities. Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.
You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top. I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin. If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class. Same goes for Carpenter and Lee. Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.
#2: Aces?
1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)
I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher. All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace. Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.
It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season. Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball. There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers. We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.
#3: Rubber Arms
1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated. In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list. But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart. The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.
I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins. His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts. He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009. It's a fine situation.
Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft. Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group. However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11). You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.
#1: Bonafide Aces
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows. Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft. There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities. Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.
You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top. I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin. If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class. Same goes for Carpenter and Lee. Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.
#2: Aces?
1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)
I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher. All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace. Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.
It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season. Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball. There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers. We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.
#3: Rubber Arms
1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)
Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated. In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list. But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart. The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.
I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins. His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts. He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009. It's a fine situation.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #29: The Philadelphia Phillies
They've won two straight NL pennants. They have easily the most lethal lineup in the National League and among the best in all of baseball. Unwilling to rest on their laurels after losing to the Yankees in the '09 World Series, management traded for and signed the game's best starting pitcher and another All-Star caliber infielder. You would think that Phillies fans wouldn't have much to complain about.
But, of course, the most notoriously surly fan base in all of sports has found something to harp on this winter: Cliff Lee. And, honestly, as envious as I am of the team they do have, I can't blame them. After Philadelphia acquired Roy Halladay this offseason, they immediately sent Lee to Seattle for a trio of decent prospects. Their GM, Ruben Amaro, cited the need to restock the farm system, so that the team would remain competitive throughout the coming decade. However, the Philly faithful had grown quite attached to Lee as he was their workhorse throughout the last three months of the season, including the playoffs, and they had to ask: Why not mortgage the future, if it gives us a better chance at bringing home a couple more rings? With Lee and Halladay at the top, the Phillies would be balancing the NL's best lineup with the NL's best rotation, and have a tandem of former AL Cy Youngs which could intimidate even the megaliths in New York and Boston in a short series.
One of the dangers of the "Moneyball era," in which teams are increasingly obsessed with youth and making wise long-term investments, is that teams are afraid to cash in all their chips and "go for it," as such, they may miss out on dynastic opportunities. The Phillies have a team that's built to win now, with a core signed through at least the 2011 season. It is very rare in this era to put together a team which can reach baseball's pinnacle several years running. 2009 was the first time in eight seasons that a team repeated as its league's champion. The Yankees are the only team in the Wild Card era to make it three or more, and only two franchises - New York and Oakland - have accomplished that feat in the integration era (since '47). Returning to and especially winning another World Series in 2010 would be legacy-making moment for Philadelphia, and you can understand why fans might want that to take precedent over the future exploits of Phillippe Aumont.
But, of course, the most notoriously surly fan base in all of sports has found something to harp on this winter: Cliff Lee. And, honestly, as envious as I am of the team they do have, I can't blame them. After Philadelphia acquired Roy Halladay this offseason, they immediately sent Lee to Seattle for a trio of decent prospects. Their GM, Ruben Amaro, cited the need to restock the farm system, so that the team would remain competitive throughout the coming decade. However, the Philly faithful had grown quite attached to Lee as he was their workhorse throughout the last three months of the season, including the playoffs, and they had to ask: Why not mortgage the future, if it gives us a better chance at bringing home a couple more rings? With Lee and Halladay at the top, the Phillies would be balancing the NL's best lineup with the NL's best rotation, and have a tandem of former AL Cy Youngs which could intimidate even the megaliths in New York and Boston in a short series.
One of the dangers of the "Moneyball era," in which teams are increasingly obsessed with youth and making wise long-term investments, is that teams are afraid to cash in all their chips and "go for it," as such, they may miss out on dynastic opportunities. The Phillies have a team that's built to win now, with a core signed through at least the 2011 season. It is very rare in this era to put together a team which can reach baseball's pinnacle several years running. 2009 was the first time in eight seasons that a team repeated as its league's champion. The Yankees are the only team in the Wild Card era to make it three or more, and only two franchises - New York and Oakland - have accomplished that feat in the integration era (since '47). Returning to and especially winning another World Series in 2010 would be legacy-making moment for Philadelphia, and you can understand why fans might want that to take precedent over the future exploits of Phillippe Aumont.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Halladay Deal
Although the major media outlets have been treating it in much the same way they dealt with the three-team Granderson/Jackson /Scherzer trade last week, the Halladay/Lee/"Bonus Babies" deal is actually three completely independent trades:
#1 - RHSP Roy Halladay (33) goes from Toronto to Philadelphia for RHSP Kyle Drabek (22), OF Michael Taylor (24), & C Travis d'Arnaud (21)
#2 - LHSP Cliff Lee (31) goes from Philadelphia to Seattle for RHRP Phillippe Aumont (21), OF Tyson Gillies (21), & RHSP Juan Ramirez (21)
#3 - OF Michael Taylor (24) goes from Toronto to Oakland for 3B Brett Wallace (23)
The Aces:
On the surface it may be unclear why Philadelphia would want to part ways with Cliff Lee after he was so invaluable to their 2009 World Series run. The difference between Lee and Halladay isn't that huge, especially in the couple seasons. Both are still in their early 30s. Both have Cy Youngs. And both should probably be regarded as among the top half dozen starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Here are their basic lines from 2004-2009:
Lee: 87-48 (.644), 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.80 K/BB, 1134 IP, 13 CG, 21.9 WAR
Halladay: 89-45 (.664), 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.17 K/BB, 1205 IP, 35 CG, 33.8 WAR
Clearly Halladay has been better, but the difference is not extraordinary, especially when you take out the one awful year Lee had (5-8, 6.29) in 2007. The major difference between them at this point in their careers is not their current production or how much they are going to be worth for the next two or three seasons, but rather what they've made thusfar in their careers.
Halladay's first full big-league season was 1999, when he was just 22-years-old, and his first big contract was signed prior to the 2004 season, the year after he won the Cy Young. All told, not including the contract extension Philadelphia is negotiating presently, Doc Halladay has already made over $90,000,000 as a professional baseball player.
Cliff Lee, on the other hand, didn't pitch he first full season in the bigs until he was 25 (in 2004). In 2006 he signed an extension which covered his arbitration years plus a club option for 2010. In total, by the time he hits the free agent market next November, Cliff Lee, despite being only two years younger than Halladay, will have made only $20,000,000, less than a quarter of the good doctor's rake. Lee has, in fact, been one of the best deals in all of baseball over the last five years, so he's going to be looking to make up some of the difference next winter, probably by signing a contract for at least five years and $100,000,000.
Having already made his fortune, Halladay seems most concerned with getting himself hooked to a franchise that has a high likelihood of playing playoff baseball consistently through what remains of his prime. The Phillies are, most certainly, that kind of franchise. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Raul Ibanez, and Placido Polanco are all under Philadelphia's control through at least the 2011 season, so the core of the reigning two-time NL Champs will have at least two more shots at the championship. According to the reports so far, Halladay is preparing to sign a deal for three years and around $60,000,000, with potential options or incentives for more. Although it is still, clearly, a ton of money, it gives the Phillies slightly more flexibility down the road than they would've had if they resigned Lee, especially since next winter they will also be negotiating with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton, and after 2011 there will be pressure to resign Howard and Hamels.
As I discussed in last week's offseason prospectus, the Mariners have as much financial flexibility as any team at the present moment. While the Phillies have over $120,000,000 in payroll obligations for 2010, the Mariners have only about $60,000,000, despite the fact that Mariners have generally spent $10-15 Million more per season than the Phillies in the recent past. So, if they choose, the Mariners can probably afford to make a very competitive offer for Lee either during the course of 2010 or even after he becomes a free agent next winter, and still have money left over to resign Felix Hernandez and go after a middle-of-the-order hitter.
The Young Arms:
Philadelphia will sending its best pitching prospect to Toronto, but will receive two of Seattle's best, although neither is really on the level with Kyle Drabek. At 21 years of age, Drabek pitched 158 minor league innings in '09 and compiled a 12-3 record, a 3.19 ERA, and 150 strikeouts. Although he may not start 2010 in the Blue Jays rotation, he will almost certainly be there by the end of the year. Phillippe Aumont is a year younger than Drabek and has yet to advance past high A. He's pitched well (3.29 ERA, 9.2 K/9 in 107 IP), but clearly not as well as Drabek. More importantly, he's a reliever. And although he is quite possibly good enough to be groomed as Brad Lidge's successor, relievers, even good ones, aren't nearly as valuable as starters. Juan Ramirez, also just 21-years-old, is currently a starter, but probably not for long. Thusfar he hasn't been very good. At high A in '09 he managed just a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. There is still, clearly, time for him to mature, but at the moment, he seems destined to be coverted to a bullpen role.
The Outfielders:
From the Phillies perspective, they are essentially exchanging Michael Taylor for Tyson Gillies. But besides being outfielders and patient hitters, these are not very similar players. For starters, Taylor is older and has already proved his ability to hit in the high minors. In '09, between AA and AAA, he hit .320 with 20 HR, 84 RBI, and a 944 OPS. He's got power, clearly, and some speed as well, swiping 21 bases in 26 attempts, but is corner outfielder. In Oakland, especially now that the Athletics have parted ways with Jack Cust, Taylor could be competing for a starting spot this spring.
Gillies, on the other hand, is probably a year or two away, which is fine for the Phillies, who have Victorino, Werth, and Ibanez for at least next season. Gillies looks like a prototypical centerfielder/leadoff hitter. He stole 44 bags at high A in 2009 and got on base at an exceptional .430 clip. He also had 18 outfield assists and 14 triples. However, so far he doesn't look to have Taylor's power stroke. Gillies hit 9 HR in '09 and had a respectable .486 SLG%, but at the same level, Taylor slugged .560 and hit 9 HR in half as many games. Whereas Taylor probably would've been a potential replacement for Werth or Ibanez, the acquisition of Gillies means that it's Victorino who is more likely to walk next winter.
The Rest:
Brett Wallace hasn't had a big-league at-bat yet, but this is the second time this year he's been involved in a high-profile trade. In July he was the key component of the deal that brought Matt Holliday to St. Louis. Wallace is a power-hitting third baseman (20 HR in '09) with decent plate discipline (.384 OBP in minors), but a pretty long left-handed stroke (116 K in '09). The Jays have clearly been coveting him for awhile. They drafted him in 2005, when he was coming out of high school, but he chose instead to go to Arizona State, where he was twice the Pac-10 Player of the Year. As a star player in college who has now had a full season of minor-league experience, Wallace is probably ready to make the jump to the show, which makes the deal a little odd for Toronto, since they just added Edwin Encarnacion this summer. This may mean that Encarnacion will be dealt or that Adam Lind is going to be testing himself in the outfield next year so that Wallace or Encarnacion can get at-bats at DH.
The Jays have accumulated quite a collection of catchers in recent weeks. A few days ago they signed John Buck after he was non-tendered by the Royals. Just prior to that they signed free agent journeymen backstops Ramon Castro (most famous for catching Mark Buerhle's perfect game in his first start with the White Sox) and Raul Chavez. The Jays already had a top catching prospect at AAA in J. P. Arencibia and now they've also added Travis d'Arnaud, who's not likely to break into the bigs before 2012. He's got a little pop (13 HR @ A), but there's not a whole lot else to say about him at this point.
Sunday, December 06, 2009
Offseason Prospectus #9: The Toronto Blue Jays
It wasn't that long ago that Blue Jays fans had a lot to get excited about. In the Spring of 2007 they were coming off a year in which they had finally unsettled the balance of power in the AL East. Since the Jays last playoff appearance, a World Series win in 1993, the Yankees and Red Sox have had a stranglehold on their division. But in early 2007, it looked like things were about to change. J. P. Riccardi, the Sandy Alderson disciple and Billy Beane bosom-buddy of Moneyball fame, had assembled a team that was making Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein uncomfortable.
For starters, there were Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, two Gold Glove caliber outfielders (Wells has won the award three times) in their mid-twenties who could hit a little as well. In 2006, Wells had finished fourth in the AL in extra-base hits, and Rios wasn't that far back, tied with Derek Jeter at 35th. Wells had already agreed to a fat extension which would assure he was a Blue Jay until 2014. Riccardi would negotiate a similar (though not quite as large) contract with Rios a year later.
The Jays offense did not begin and end with their young outfielders. They also had veteran slugger Troy Glaus, coming of a 38 HR, 104 RBI campaign. They had sweet-swinging first-baseman Lyle Overbay, who hit .312 in '06 and finished 4th in the AL in doubles. And, Riccardi had just signed the Big Hurt, Frank Thomas, coming of a resurgent MVP-caliber season with the Athletics. With young talents like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind also on the club, the '07 Jays had the makings of a team that could light up even the best pitching staffs in the league.
They also had one of the best pitching staffs in the league, led by the fearsome tandem of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. The back-end of the rotation was buoyed by a stable of impressive prospects, including Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch, Gustavo Chacin, and Casey Janssen, all 25 and younger. And, they had a solid closer, B. J. Ryan, coming of a season in which he had saved 38 games and maintained a ridiculous 1.37 ERA.
For Blue Jays fans it must seem like such a long time ago. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, who looked like such "sure things," have become two of the game's worst contractual albatrosses, having suffered terrifyingly steep drops in production of the last three years. As has Lyle Overbay. Every one of the five pitching prospects listed above suffered a major arm injury in '07, '08, or '09. Same goes for B. J. Ryan, who had to be released last spring. Frank Thomas had a solid, but injury-plagued '07. So did Glaus, who was dealt to the Cardinals after the season. And, as any Toronto fan will tell you, the list goes on and on.
Now, the Riccardi era is over. The Blue Jays gave Alex Rios away, and probably would've done the same with Vernon Wells, had anybody been willing to take him. Hill and Lind, who looked a couple of years ago like great complementary pieces, are now the core of the Toronto lineup. New GM, Alex Anthopoulos, must decide whether to trade Halladay, one of the most popular (and best) players in the history of the franchise, or risk seeing him walk away after the 2010 season. It's a ballclub in shambles, and the road ahead doesn't look particularly bright.
Free Agents:
Rod Barajas (34) C
Kevin Millar (38) 1B/DH
Marco Scutaro (34) SS
Arbitration-Eligible:
Jeremy Accardo (28) RHRP
Jose Bautista (29) 3B/LF
Shawn Camp (34) RHRP
Raul Chavez (37) C
Jason Frasor (32) RHRP
Casey Janssen (28) RHRP
Brandon League (27) RHRP
Shawn Marcum (27) RHSP
Dustin McGowan (27) RHSP
Brian Tallet (32) LHSP
ETA 2010?:
J. P. Arencibia (24) C
Brett Cecil (23) LHSP
Brian Dopirak (26) 1B/DH
Brad Mills (25) LHSP
Travis Snider (22) LF/RF
The first line of business for the Jays front office this winter is dealing Roy Halladay. Doc has made it clear that although he loves playing in Toronto, he wants the opportunity to pitch in the postseason while he's still at the top of his game (Halladay will turn 33 in May). It seems hard to imagine the Blue Jays looking like an imminent contender by the end of next season; so, in order to get the most in return for one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball and to prevent the distraction which troubled the Jays for much of 2009 (the probable cause for Riccardi's dismissal), Anthopoulos will almost certainly deal Doc in the next couple months, perhaps as soon as next week's winter meetings.
Several teams will be rumored in the mix, but the Jays eventual partner will undoubtedly be a team with deep pockets and probably a deep farm system as well, making the Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees among the obvious frontrunners. Darkhorses could include the Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, Brewers, and Mets, although in each case there are potential issues with coming up with either enough quality prospects to make the deal or enough payroll to sign Halladay long-term.
Most of the rumors which has circulated thusfar, have the Jays coveting young pitchers like Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, or Trevor Bell. While there may be some truth to that, I expect any deal for Halladay will prioritize position players. The only places where the Blue Jays are committed beyond 2011 are second base (Hill), center field (Wells), right field (Travis Snider), and designated hitter (Lind). J. P. Arencibia's offensive production stalled a bit at AAA, but he'll still get a shot at taking over catching duties this spring. Edwin Encarnacion, who the Jays acquired for Scott Rolen, has two more years before free agency. He never lived up to expectations in Cincinnati, but he's still pretty young (27), so there's a good chance he will benefit from the change of scenery.
Alex Gonzalez and Jose Bautista are nothing more than place-holders and Lyle Overbay's contract expires at the end of 2010, so the most pressing needs for the Jays are long-range solutions at first and short. That's good news for the Red Sox and the Rangers, both of whom have quality and depth in their organizations at first base. There aren't really any franchises with a bevy of five-tool shortstops, so it's likely a question of whether the Cubs, Red Sox, or Mets would be willing to part with players who are currently a big part of their long-term plans.
(If I were making the odds for a Roy Halladay trade, I would say the Boston could put an end to it this weekend if they were willing to offer Lars Anderson, Jed Lowrie, either Buchholz or Bowden, and a low-end prospect at OF or P. That's a lot to put on the table, but having a rotation of Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, and the remaining youngster might be worth it.)
The reason I don't expect Toronto to build a trade around pitching is that one thing J.P. Riccardi did very well was draft pitchers. The Blue Jays have a stockpile of relatively young, high-upside hurlers which is already the envy of most of their peers. What the franchise had trouble doing in recent years was keeping those pitchers healthy. This spring will see the return of Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, and Jesse Litsch. Neither Marcum nor McGowan threw a single pitch in '09. And Litsch managed only two starts. However, in '08 that trio combined to pitch over 400 innings, won 29 games, and had a combined ERA of 3.71. None was older than 26 at that time. If each can bounce back and continue to mature, the Blue Jays could have the makings of a very formidable rotation as soon as 2011.
Also in their stable, they have Brett Cecil, 23, who had an up-and-down rookie campaign, when the injuries mentioned above pressed him into big-league action earlier than the franchise probably would've liked. But, during one five start stretch in July and August, he went 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 26 K in 30 IP. The young lefty has a vicious breaking ball, a lively fastball, and displayed good control in the minors. He is easily the equal of any of the more infamous young fireballers for New York and Boston.
Toronto's pitching corps don't end there. The Jays have a number of mid-twenties starters bouncing around the system. If Roy Halladay is traded, there will likely be at least one more quality pitching prospect in the mix. Not all of these guys will develop into starters who Toronto want in their big-league rotation, but there's a great chance four or five of them will, and the Jays will spend much of 2010 figuring out who that's going to be. Here's my early rankings:
1. Jesse Litsch (25) 13-9, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 99 K, 176 IP in '08
2. Dustin McGowan (27) 12-10, 4.08, 1.22, 144 K, 170 IP in '07
3. Brett Cecil (23) 7-4, 5.30, 1.65, 69 K, 93 IP in '09
4. Shaun Marcum (28) 9-7, 3.39, 1.16, 123 K, 151 IP in '08
5. Marc Rzepcznski (24) 2-4, 3.67, 1.32, 60 K, 61 IP in '09 / 9-5, 2.66, 1.17, 104 K, 88 IP @ AA/AAA
6. Reidier Gonzalez (24) 4-6, 2.90, 1.15, 67 K, 93 IP @ AA in '09
7. Brad Mills (25) 13-5, 1.95, 1.17, 159 K, 147 IP @ A/AA in '08
8. David Purcey (28) 8-6, 2.69, 1.12, 121 K, 117 IP @ AAA in '08
9. Ricky Romero (25) 13-9, 4.30, 1.52, 141 K, 178 IP in '09
10. Robert Ray (26) 13-9, 3.61, 1.34, 132 K, 167 IP @ A/AA in '08
11. Luis Perez (25) 9-11, 3.55, 1.31, 112 K, 162 IP @ AA in '09
12. Scott Richmond (30) 8-11, 5.52, 1.49, 117 K, 139 IP in '09
Each of these guys, with the exception of Richmond, have flirted with dominance at some stage in their careers thusfar. Given some good luck, the Jays have the makings of an incredible young staff. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to assemble a lineup potent enough to make them competitive with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Sadly, at this point I'd have to say 2012 at the earliest.
Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):
RF Jose Bautista (R)
2B Aaron Hill (R)
DH Adam Lind (L)
CF Vernon Wells (R)
3B Edwin Encarnacion (R)
1B Lyle Overbay (L)
LF Travis Snider (L)
SS Alex Gonzalez (R)
C J. P. Arencibia (R)
SP Jesse Litsch (R)
SP Dustin McGowan (R)
SP Shaun Marcum (R)
SP Brett Cecil (L)
SP Ricky Romero (L)
CL Jason Frasor (R)
SU Scott Downs (L)
SU Shawn Camp (R)
MR Jeremy Accardo (R)
SWING Brandon Morrow (R)
SWING David Purcey (L)
MOP Casey Janssen (R)
C John Buck (R)
IF John McDonald (R)
IF Brian Dopirak (R)
OF Reed Johnson (R) FA
Friday, October 16, 2009
BBA Awards Ballot: Cy Young (AL)
Much to my surprise and glee, the BBA Rookie of the Year in the NL went to Andrew McCutchen. Check it out. The BBA voters weren't at all swayed by Chris Coghlan's high batting average or the gaudy ERA of J.A. Happ, resoundingly supporting McCutchen, who garnered twelve of the twenty first-place votes and 65 total points. Tommy Hanson finished second with 50 points and Happ third with 27 points. Let's hope the BBWAA is as thoughtful in their selections. On the AL side, the BBA went with Andrew Bailey (48 pts.), followed by Rick Porcello (36) and Elvis Andrus (28).
I've had a hard time deciding in which league to cast my Cy Young ballot. In the end, laziness got the better of me. I, like most people, believe Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, and Adam Wainwright belong on the NL ballot, but deciding upon their order was going to require a parsing of hairs which frankly exceeded my patience this weekend. Instead, let's check on the AL, where things are slightly more cut and dry:
3. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 240 IP, 269 K/63 BB, 8.2 WAR
I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Felix Hernandez or C. C. Sabathia in this spot, but Verlander sold me on his candidacy with three excellent starts to finish the season, when the Tigers needed him most. I'm also partial to pitchers who go deep into games (see Halladay, Roy). Verlander was certainly that. He led the league in innings (and also strikeouts). Fourteen times Verlander pitched in the eighth or beyond. He threw three hundred more pitches (3931) than anybody in baseball, the highest total for a pitcher since 2005. It's worth noting that Verlander has been willing to take this kind of "abuse" despite the fact that he has yet to sign his first big deal. The Tigers Ace is still two years away from free agency. Hopefully, Jim Leyland won't destroy his arm before he gets a crack at a Sabathia-sized payday.
2. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 239 IP, 208 K/35 BB, 7.3 WAR
It will surprise exactly nobody that I'm placing Halladay higher than the average voter. He's been my favorite pitcher and one of my favorite players for years. However, this isn't exactly favoritism to the detriment of rationale. Halladay did lead all of baseball, again, in complete games (9) and shutouts (4). His K/BB ratio (5.94) also led both leagues and his pitches per plate appearance (3.52) was tied for lowest in the AL (with Nick Blackburn). He was third in the AL in ERA, second in innings pitched, tied for fourth in wins, and fifth in strikouts.
In my mind, what really separates Halladay from the other excellent American League pitchers of 2009 is the quality of his competition. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays finished 1, 3, and 5 in the AL in scoring this season. Roy Halladay had to make 15(!) of his 32 starts against those three teams. He went 6-7 (2.97 ERA) against them. He went 11-3 (2.62 ERA) against everybody else. The strength of his competition pushes him ahead of bigger winners like Sabathia, Verlander, and Hernandez. If he had, say, two more starts against the Royals and the A's instead of New York and Boston, he'd likely be sneaking up towards #1 on most ballots.
1. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals
16-8, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 229 1/3 IP, 242 K/51 BB, 9.4 WAR
Greinke probably punched his ticket with the BBWAA when he won his sixteenth game. (Fernando Velenzuela remains the only starting pitcher to take home a Cy Young with less than sixteen wins, something Tim Lincecum fans would probably rather not hear.) In truth, Greinke should win it regardless. He had a downright dominating season, posting the best ERA in the AL since Pedro's legend-making 1999 season (18-6, 1.74). And, of course, his win total was probably considerably suppressed by playing for the Royals. Six times Greinke went seven or more innings allowing one earned run or less and didn't get a win. A dozen times he registered a quality start and ended up with a loss or no decision.
It's great to see this kind of comeback story as well. As recently as 2006 Greinke was suffering from such severe depression and social anxiety that he had to take some time off from the game and seek professional help. In an interview with the Kansas City Star he described an amazing form of psychological transference where he believed his unhappiness was the result of being a hitter trapped in a pitcher's body:
"I thought that was why I hated baseball. I thought it was because I wanted to hit...At least once a month I'd be crying to myself while I'm going to bed with a bat in my hand, just swinging it...I was waiting for a bad season. I was even hoping I'd have a bad season so I could be a hitter or be done with baseball period...As soon as I started taking the medication, I started feeling better and I really didn't have any desire to go back to being a hitter anymore."
(Kansas City Star, 2/22/07)
Talk about a ringing endorsement. Pharmaceutical companies are salivating. A baseball player hasn't sold this many pills since Rafael Palmeiro hawked Viagra (oh yes, that did happen). Seriously though, one has to applaud the Royals for their patience and support, and for having the wisdom to sign Greinke to a four year, $38 Million contract right before his breakout season.
Honorable Mentions: Felix Hernandez (SEA), C. C. Sabathia (NYY), Jon Lester (BOS)
I've had a hard time deciding in which league to cast my Cy Young ballot. In the end, laziness got the better of me. I, like most people, believe Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, and Adam Wainwright belong on the NL ballot, but deciding upon their order was going to require a parsing of hairs which frankly exceeded my patience this weekend. Instead, let's check on the AL, where things are slightly more cut and dry:
3. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 240 IP, 269 K/63 BB, 8.2 WAR
I wouldn't have a terrible problem with Felix Hernandez or C. C. Sabathia in this spot, but Verlander sold me on his candidacy with three excellent starts to finish the season, when the Tigers needed him most. I'm also partial to pitchers who go deep into games (see Halladay, Roy). Verlander was certainly that. He led the league in innings (and also strikeouts). Fourteen times Verlander pitched in the eighth or beyond. He threw three hundred more pitches (3931) than anybody in baseball, the highest total for a pitcher since 2005. It's worth noting that Verlander has been willing to take this kind of "abuse" despite the fact that he has yet to sign his first big deal. The Tigers Ace is still two years away from free agency. Hopefully, Jim Leyland won't destroy his arm before he gets a crack at a Sabathia-sized payday.
2. Roy Halladay - Toronto Blue Jays
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 239 IP, 208 K/35 BB, 7.3 WAR
It will surprise exactly nobody that I'm placing Halladay higher than the average voter. He's been my favorite pitcher and one of my favorite players for years. However, this isn't exactly favoritism to the detriment of rationale. Halladay did lead all of baseball, again, in complete games (9) and shutouts (4). His K/BB ratio (5.94) also led both leagues and his pitches per plate appearance (3.52) was tied for lowest in the AL (with Nick Blackburn). He was third in the AL in ERA, second in innings pitched, tied for fourth in wins, and fifth in strikouts.
In my mind, what really separates Halladay from the other excellent American League pitchers of 2009 is the quality of his competition. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays finished 1, 3, and 5 in the AL in scoring this season. Roy Halladay had to make 15(!) of his 32 starts against those three teams. He went 6-7 (2.97 ERA) against them. He went 11-3 (2.62 ERA) against everybody else. The strength of his competition pushes him ahead of bigger winners like Sabathia, Verlander, and Hernandez. If he had, say, two more starts against the Royals and the A's instead of New York and Boston, he'd likely be sneaking up towards #1 on most ballots.
1. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals16-8, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 229 1/3 IP, 242 K/51 BB, 9.4 WAR
Greinke probably punched his ticket with the BBWAA when he won his sixteenth game. (Fernando Velenzuela remains the only starting pitcher to take home a Cy Young with less than sixteen wins, something Tim Lincecum fans would probably rather not hear.) In truth, Greinke should win it regardless. He had a downright dominating season, posting the best ERA in the AL since Pedro's legend-making 1999 season (18-6, 1.74). And, of course, his win total was probably considerably suppressed by playing for the Royals. Six times Greinke went seven or more innings allowing one earned run or less and didn't get a win. A dozen times he registered a quality start and ended up with a loss or no decision.
It's great to see this kind of comeback story as well. As recently as 2006 Greinke was suffering from such severe depression and social anxiety that he had to take some time off from the game and seek professional help. In an interview with the Kansas City Star he described an amazing form of psychological transference where he believed his unhappiness was the result of being a hitter trapped in a pitcher's body:
"I thought that was why I hated baseball. I thought it was because I wanted to hit...At least once a month I'd be crying to myself while I'm going to bed with a bat in my hand, just swinging it...I was waiting for a bad season. I was even hoping I'd have a bad season so I could be a hitter or be done with baseball period...As soon as I started taking the medication, I started feeling better and I really didn't have any desire to go back to being a hitter anymore."
(Kansas City Star, 2/22/07)
Talk about a ringing endorsement. Pharmaceutical companies are salivating. A baseball player hasn't sold this many pills since Rafael Palmeiro hawked Viagra (oh yes, that did happen). Seriously though, one has to applaud the Royals for their patience and support, and for having the wisdom to sign Greinke to a four year, $38 Million contract right before his breakout season.
Honorable Mentions: Felix Hernandez (SEA), C. C. Sabathia (NYY), Jon Lester (BOS)
Thursday, July 30, 2009
At least 7 teams with regrets...
Toronto's General Manager, J. P. Riccardi, has already come under fire, at home and in the national media, for his Roy Halladay publicity tour. Halladay "rumors" dominated the headlines for most of July, but the Blue Jays failed to find a trading partner in the end. It remains to be seen whether Riccardi will wish he had accepted the reported offer from the Phillies which included either J.A. Happ or Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor. If Toronto ends up trading Halladay this offseason for a package that doesn't include two players the equal of what Philadelphia had on the table, Riccardi will look like a bit of a schmuck, overplaying his hand just as the Twins did a couple years ago with Johan Santana.
However, regardless of where Halladay is pitching next spring, there will be at least seven general managers spending the winter asking themselves "What if...?" One team will take home a World Series trophy and that lucky GM will tell his fan base, "See, we really didn't need Roy Halladay?" But whether he admits it or not, even he will have images of the Doc's gravity-defying repertoire flitting through his mind's eye right up to the final out of the season. And the seven playoff competitors who fall short...well, they'll be having trade deadline nightmares for years to come, particularly when several of the vaunted prospects who they refused to consider parting with never reach their potential, as is inevitably the case with the majority of top prospects.
I'm going to assume that Riccardi was especially reluctant to turn Doc over to another American League team (particularly the Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees), where he could make a triumphant return to Toronto half-a-dozen times in the coming two seasons, so I'll focus my comments on National League contenders.
If the reigning champions, the Phillies, don't win the World Series again this year or next, they will probably be the team kicking themselves the hardest, because if they had been willing to part with any three of their top four prospects, they probably could've guaranteed themselves a dynasty. However, by adding Cliff Lee, they may have found a way have their dynasty and their "future stars" too. Lee is somewhere between 80% and 90% of the pitcher Halladay is, but he cost not a single of Philadelphia prized prospects. The distressing question for Phillies fans is whether having a rotation full of left-handers (Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Moyer) could haunt them in the playoffs when they come up against righty-heavy lineups like Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Chicago. Joe Blanton is the only right-handed pitcher in the Phillies rotation, although they do have some kid named Pedro rehabbing for an August return.
The Dodgers put away the AL West sometime in May, so they weren't pressed to make a splash at the deadline. But one has to wonder whether this team can succeed in October when their top two starters are 21- and 25-years-old. Both Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are on pace to pitch WAY more innings than they ever have before. Billingsley is already showing some wear and tear, having allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts. The Dodgers do have a veteran in Randy Wolf, who has pitched much better than his record indicates (5-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 99 K, 134 IP) and they have Hiroki Kuroda recently returned from the D.L. Kuroda hasn't been great so far, but he did have a 1.46 ERA in two postseason starts in 2008. Roy Halladay would've looked really good in Dodger Blue, but the fact is, the Dodgers don't have the prospects to make an offer equal to that which Philly put on the table, so they would've had to part with productive pieces of their current major-league roster - probably Kershaw, Billingsley, or Matt Kemp - which may have created as many problems as Halladay solved.
St. Louis may be the most improved team this trade season. The additions of Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo (as well as the resurgence of Ryan Ludwick) filled out the lineup around King Albert and gave Tony LaRussa the depth off the bench which he so covets. The rotation for St. Louis has been very good (3.60 ERA, 2nd to San Francisco in the NL), so the Cardinals certainly addressed their more pressing problem. They also made it readily apparent that they planned to "go for it" this season. They unloaded their top two pitching prospects (Chris Perez and Jess Todd) to get DeRosa and their top hitting prospect to get Holliday, essentially decimating the farm system. Nonetheless, they probably could've cobbled together a package including Colby Rasmus and Daryl Jones which might've been enough the nab Halladay as well. If you're going to "go for it," then sell the whole damn store! The 1-2 combo of Doc and Chris Carpenter would've given them the formula for playoff domination.
Of all the contending teams who were relatively quiet at the deadline, the Cubs are somehow the most perplexing and it probably has more to do with their impending sale than any apathy on Jim Hendry's part. The Cubs have no other reason to be conservative. They are a veteran team trying to redeeem themselves after two straight early exits from the postseason. Much of their core is either declining or on the verge of free agency, and they don't look like they have much future beyond Lou Pinella's contract (which runs through 2010). They probably could've made a run at Halladay by giving up some combination of Jake Fox, Randy Wells, Josh Vitters, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ceda, and Micah Hoffpauir. However, Chicago was one of the few contending teams that didn't even get mentioned in the daily Halladay updates, suggesting that Hendry's hands were truly tied.
However, regardless of where Halladay is pitching next spring, there will be at least seven general managers spending the winter asking themselves "What if...?" One team will take home a World Series trophy and that lucky GM will tell his fan base, "See, we really didn't need Roy Halladay?" But whether he admits it or not, even he will have images of the Doc's gravity-defying repertoire flitting through his mind's eye right up to the final out of the season. And the seven playoff competitors who fall short...well, they'll be having trade deadline nightmares for years to come, particularly when several of the vaunted prospects who they refused to consider parting with never reach their potential, as is inevitably the case with the majority of top prospects.
I'm going to assume that Riccardi was especially reluctant to turn Doc over to another American League team (particularly the Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees), where he could make a triumphant return to Toronto half-a-dozen times in the coming two seasons, so I'll focus my comments on National League contenders.
If the reigning champions, the Phillies, don't win the World Series again this year or next, they will probably be the team kicking themselves the hardest, because if they had been willing to part with any three of their top four prospects, they probably could've guaranteed themselves a dynasty. However, by adding Cliff Lee, they may have found a way have their dynasty and their "future stars" too. Lee is somewhere between 80% and 90% of the pitcher Halladay is, but he cost not a single of Philadelphia prized prospects. The distressing question for Phillies fans is whether having a rotation full of left-handers (Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Moyer) could haunt them in the playoffs when they come up against righty-heavy lineups like Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Chicago. Joe Blanton is the only right-handed pitcher in the Phillies rotation, although they do have some kid named Pedro rehabbing for an August return.
The Dodgers put away the AL West sometime in May, so they weren't pressed to make a splash at the deadline. But one has to wonder whether this team can succeed in October when their top two starters are 21- and 25-years-old. Both Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are on pace to pitch WAY more innings than they ever have before. Billingsley is already showing some wear and tear, having allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts. The Dodgers do have a veteran in Randy Wolf, who has pitched much better than his record indicates (5-5, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 99 K, 134 IP) and they have Hiroki Kuroda recently returned from the D.L. Kuroda hasn't been great so far, but he did have a 1.46 ERA in two postseason starts in 2008. Roy Halladay would've looked really good in Dodger Blue, but the fact is, the Dodgers don't have the prospects to make an offer equal to that which Philly put on the table, so they would've had to part with productive pieces of their current major-league roster - probably Kershaw, Billingsley, or Matt Kemp - which may have created as many problems as Halladay solved.
St. Louis may be the most improved team this trade season. The additions of Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo (as well as the resurgence of Ryan Ludwick) filled out the lineup around King Albert and gave Tony LaRussa the depth off the bench which he so covets. The rotation for St. Louis has been very good (3.60 ERA, 2nd to San Francisco in the NL), so the Cardinals certainly addressed their more pressing problem. They also made it readily apparent that they planned to "go for it" this season. They unloaded their top two pitching prospects (Chris Perez and Jess Todd) to get DeRosa and their top hitting prospect to get Holliday, essentially decimating the farm system. Nonetheless, they probably could've cobbled together a package including Colby Rasmus and Daryl Jones which might've been enough the nab Halladay as well. If you're going to "go for it," then sell the whole damn store! The 1-2 combo of Doc and Chris Carpenter would've given them the formula for playoff domination.
Of all the contending teams who were relatively quiet at the deadline, the Cubs are somehow the most perplexing and it probably has more to do with their impending sale than any apathy on Jim Hendry's part. The Cubs have no other reason to be conservative. They are a veteran team trying to redeeem themselves after two straight early exits from the postseason. Much of their core is either declining or on the verge of free agency, and they don't look like they have much future beyond Lou Pinella's contract (which runs through 2010). They probably could've made a run at Halladay by giving up some combination of Jake Fox, Randy Wells, Josh Vitters, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Ceda, and Micah Hoffpauir. However, Chicago was one of the few contending teams that didn't even get mentioned in the daily Halladay updates, suggesting that Hendry's hands were truly tied.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
The End of an Era
Buster Olney makes the argument over at ESPN.com that the Blue Jays "must" trade Roy Halladay now or they risk ending up with a lukewarm package of prospects like the one the Twins got from the Mets for Johan Santana a couple years ago. He reports that the Rogers Centre was full of salivating scouts this afternoon as Halladay dominated an excellent Red Sox lineup and won another duel against the Ace of a divisional rival (this time it was Jon Lester). I had to wonder, as Halladay polished off yet another complete game by eliminating Big Papi, Jason Bay, and Jacoby Ellsbury in order, whether he was saying farewell to Toronto and the team he's made 273 starts for over the last decade. The ovation which last throughout the 9th suggested that loyal Toronto fans sense they might be saying goodbye to the face of the franchise.
The complete game victory has become Hallday's trademark. The 44 he's hurled since 1999 is easily the most by any pitcher during that span. Saturday's masterpiece was vintage Halladay as he managed to defeat one of the most patient teams in baseball using only 105 pitches. He controls his viciously biting arsenal to a degree which is almost unfair (his K/BB rate this season is 113 to 17). Pitches are liable to bite in any direction, on any count, regardless of the hitter he's facing (Ellsbury, who has the 8th lowest strikeout rate in the AL, was utterly fooled by Halladay's last cutter, which started belt-high on the outside edge and dove toward his shoelaces).
It wasn't until today that I became convinced that Doc was actually going to be trade,d not because of Olney's column or any "necessity" from the perspective of the Jays, but because, clearly, Doc is tired of waiting for his chance at a ring. He's always been good, but he's never been better than he is right now, and perhaps never will be. Other than Albert Pujols, one could easily argue that he is the single most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is why it is so difficult to imagine the Blue Jays getting a fair deal. If he were to move to the NL, I would be surprised if Halladay didn't duplicate or even improve upon C. C. Sabathia's run of dominance in the second half of 2008.
So, of course, the question everybody is asking, where will he end up? The Jays will be reluctant to trade Doc where he might haunt them for years to come, in other words, the AL East. The Dodgers might be a nice fit, but all of L.A.'s major-league ready talent is currently contributing to the major-league roster, which means the pieces for a deal probably aren't there. The same is probably true of the White Sox and Tigers. Which leaves...
1.) Philadelphia Phillies
Let's get something straight. Pitchers like Halladay are not intimidated by ballparks. The opposing pitcher, after all, has to deal with the same conditions. What Halladay sees when he looks at the Phillies is not only a proven World Series pedigree, but also the two qualities which he obviously covets. Halladay is at his best when he can relax, work quickly, and pitch to contact. The Phillies have a potent offense, which means he will grow much more accustomed to pitching with a lead, which is obviously when he is most dominant (this afternoon Halladay allowed five of his six baserunners in the first three innings). The Phillies also have terrific defenders around the diamond, including probably the best infield in baseball with Jimmy Rollins (#1 SS according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible), Chase Utley (#1 2B according to Dewan), Pedro Feliz (#2 3B according to Dewarn), and an improved Ryan Howard (besides slimming down, Howard has improved his Ultimate Zone Rating in each of the last three seasons).
The Phillies organizational depth is ranked #12 by Baseball America, which means they have a fair amount of top prospects which Toronto might covet. The prizes are starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (107 K in 108 IP at AAA, but only 4.97 ERA), outfielder Michael Taylor (.333, 15 HR, 18 SB, 977 OPS at AAA), outfielder Dominic Brown (.307, 9 HR, 14 SB, 916 OPS at A), and starting pitcher Kyle Drabek (9-2, 2.83 ERA at A & AA). It will likely take two of them, along with somebody like J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, or Sergio Escalano to lure Halladay away from the Jays.
2.) Milwaukee Brewers
Last year Doug Melvin turned Matt LaPorta into half a season of C. C. Sabathia. This year he could probably turne Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel into a season and a half of Roy Halladay. However, those two players are currently on track to take over everyday positions for the Brewers in 2010. Will Melvin be willing to endure several more years of Bill Hall, Craig Counsel, etc. in the starting lineup in order to bring in an Ace. I argue that he should. Halladay would take the pressure off of Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, as well as make Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush more or less expendable in the postseason. Escobar and Gamel are good prospects, but Doc Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. The Brewers aren't going to be able to keep their core of young players together permanently. It would be good for Milwaukee if they made a serious run now.
3.) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a bit of a darkhorse as far as the rumor mill has been concerned so far, but they make as much sense as anybody. Time is running short for this Cubs team as Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Bradly, and Lilly are all obviously entering the backstretch of their careers. Pinella is only signed through 2010 (same for Lee, Lilly, and Bradley), which means if the Cubs don't bring home a pennant this year or next, they are probably going to have to re-shuffle to deck before they make another serious run. By acquiring Halladay they would lessen the anxiety that accompanies every start by Rich Harden (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Zambrano). It would also allow Sean Marshall to stay in the bullpen (his ERA as a reliever is 1.47, compared to 4.87 as a starter). And, perhaps most importantly, they would keep Halladay away from divisional rivals Milwaukee and St. Louis.
The Cubs farm system isn't exactly deep, but they've got a couple of premier prospects: Josh Vitters (.302, 15 HR, 831 OPS at A) and Jeff Samardzija (5-3, 3.72 at AAA). They also have a nice selection of major-league guys like Jeff Baker, Chad Fox, and Micah Hoffpauir who are still relatively young (and cheap), but have proved they can be good, if not great, at the top level. Jim Hendry might be more prepared than any GM in baseball to lay all his cards on the table in order to find the final piece of the puzzle. The Cubs don't have much to lose at this point.
The complete game victory has become Hallday's trademark. The 44 he's hurled since 1999 is easily the most by any pitcher during that span. Saturday's masterpiece was vintage Halladay as he managed to defeat one of the most patient teams in baseball using only 105 pitches. He controls his viciously biting arsenal to a degree which is almost unfair (his K/BB rate this season is 113 to 17). Pitches are liable to bite in any direction, on any count, regardless of the hitter he's facing (Ellsbury, who has the 8th lowest strikeout rate in the AL, was utterly fooled by Halladay's last cutter, which started belt-high on the outside edge and dove toward his shoelaces).
It wasn't until today that I became convinced that Doc was actually going to be trade,d not because of Olney's column or any "necessity" from the perspective of the Jays, but because, clearly, Doc is tired of waiting for his chance at a ring. He's always been good, but he's never been better than he is right now, and perhaps never will be. Other than Albert Pujols, one could easily argue that he is the single most valuable commodity in all of baseball, which is why it is so difficult to imagine the Blue Jays getting a fair deal. If he were to move to the NL, I would be surprised if Halladay didn't duplicate or even improve upon C. C. Sabathia's run of dominance in the second half of 2008.
So, of course, the question everybody is asking, where will he end up? The Jays will be reluctant to trade Doc where he might haunt them for years to come, in other words, the AL East. The Dodgers might be a nice fit, but all of L.A.'s major-league ready talent is currently contributing to the major-league roster, which means the pieces for a deal probably aren't there. The same is probably true of the White Sox and Tigers. Which leaves...
1.) Philadelphia Phillies
Let's get something straight. Pitchers like Halladay are not intimidated by ballparks. The opposing pitcher, after all, has to deal with the same conditions. What Halladay sees when he looks at the Phillies is not only a proven World Series pedigree, but also the two qualities which he obviously covets. Halladay is at his best when he can relax, work quickly, and pitch to contact. The Phillies have a potent offense, which means he will grow much more accustomed to pitching with a lead, which is obviously when he is most dominant (this afternoon Halladay allowed five of his six baserunners in the first three innings). The Phillies also have terrific defenders around the diamond, including probably the best infield in baseball with Jimmy Rollins (#1 SS according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible), Chase Utley (#1 2B according to Dewan), Pedro Feliz (#2 3B according to Dewarn), and an improved Ryan Howard (besides slimming down, Howard has improved his Ultimate Zone Rating in each of the last three seasons).
The Phillies organizational depth is ranked #12 by Baseball America, which means they have a fair amount of top prospects which Toronto might covet. The prizes are starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (107 K in 108 IP at AAA, but only 4.97 ERA), outfielder Michael Taylor (.333, 15 HR, 18 SB, 977 OPS at AAA), outfielder Dominic Brown (.307, 9 HR, 14 SB, 916 OPS at A), and starting pitcher Kyle Drabek (9-2, 2.83 ERA at A & AA). It will likely take two of them, along with somebody like J.A. Happ, Lou Marson, or Sergio Escalano to lure Halladay away from the Jays.
2.) Milwaukee Brewers
Last year Doug Melvin turned Matt LaPorta into half a season of C. C. Sabathia. This year he could probably turne Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel into a season and a half of Roy Halladay. However, those two players are currently on track to take over everyday positions for the Brewers in 2010. Will Melvin be willing to endure several more years of Bill Hall, Craig Counsel, etc. in the starting lineup in order to bring in an Ace. I argue that he should. Halladay would take the pressure off of Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, as well as make Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush more or less expendable in the postseason. Escobar and Gamel are good prospects, but Doc Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. The Brewers aren't going to be able to keep their core of young players together permanently. It would be good for Milwaukee if they made a serious run now.
3.) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are a bit of a darkhorse as far as the rumor mill has been concerned so far, but they make as much sense as anybody. Time is running short for this Cubs team as Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Bradly, and Lilly are all obviously entering the backstretch of their careers. Pinella is only signed through 2010 (same for Lee, Lilly, and Bradley), which means if the Cubs don't bring home a pennant this year or next, they are probably going to have to re-shuffle to deck before they make another serious run. By acquiring Halladay they would lessen the anxiety that accompanies every start by Rich Harden (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Zambrano). It would also allow Sean Marshall to stay in the bullpen (his ERA as a reliever is 1.47, compared to 4.87 as a starter). And, perhaps most importantly, they would keep Halladay away from divisional rivals Milwaukee and St. Louis.
The Cubs farm system isn't exactly deep, but they've got a couple of premier prospects: Josh Vitters (.302, 15 HR, 831 OPS at A) and Jeff Samardzija (5-3, 3.72 at AAA). They also have a nice selection of major-league guys like Jeff Baker, Chad Fox, and Micah Hoffpauir who are still relatively young (and cheap), but have proved they can be good, if not great, at the top level. Jim Hendry might be more prepared than any GM in baseball to lay all his cards on the table in order to find the final piece of the puzzle. The Cubs don't have much to lose at this point.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Sunday Night Notes: All-Star Break
Hippeaux's Predictions For the Second Half:
- Ryan Howard will justify his All-Star selection and the inequity of Miguel Cabrera's snubbing will be exacerbated. Miggy's second half in 2008 was pretty explosive (.302, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 951 OPS) and this year he already has a pretty stellar first half to build on (.322, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 923 OPS). He faced tough competition on the A.L. ballot, but let's face it, he deserves to be there as much or more than Carlos Pena and Mark Texeira. Howard's selection prompted widespread accusations of nepotism, which are probably founded, considering it cost guys like Pablo Sandoval and Matt Kemp opportunities, but Charlie Manuel understands that Ryan Howard's game isn't suited to provoke All-Star selections. Every season he invokes the ire of Phillies fans with early season slumps, than reclaims their affections come summertime. These are his career OPS splits by month: 793 in April, 950 in May, 874 in June, 980 in July, 937 in August, and 1150 in September. His post-All-Star Break OPS (1050) is a full 175 points higher than in the first half.
- Roy Halladay isn't going anywhere. I could be wrong. Some contender may get eager enough to put together a package which the Blue Jays can't pass up. But it will have to include at least two premier prospects, and with the premium placed on youth in recent years, I'm not sure teams are prepared to "mortgage the farm" to that extent. I can't imagine J. P. Riccardi would trade the best pitcher in baseball within his division, considering those are the teams he'll be trying to catch in the coming years, so that rules out three of the most obvious buyers. The Brewers have already made pretty clear that they aren't willing to part with their top prospects, guys like Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, in an attempt to recreate their Sabathia trade from 2008. So that leaves the Cardinals, White Sox, and two teams out of Los Angeles. I'm not sure any of them have enough good talent (which isn't already essential to their success) to woo the Jays. Honestly, Halladay is almost too valuable. Their may not be any such thing as a fair trade.
- The Giants will go for it. If Cain's elbow injury is more than just a bruise, this could change. But the Giants rotation is undeniably the best in baseball. The starters are responsible for 38 of the team's 49 wins (despite being near the bottom in run support) and lead MLB in ERA (3.49), K (487), BAA (.236), and CG (8). They're second in WHIP (1.27) to Seattle. Although Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Sandoval give this team a lot to build on, it isn't exactly a group which has time to wait. Randy Johnson, Ben Molina, and Randy Winn are only signed through the end of the season and Barry Zito, Edgar Renteria , and Aaron Rowand aren't exactly on the upside of their career tracks. The Giants have extraordinary pitching depth, with minor leaguers like Ryan Sadowski (recently promoted), Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Pucetes, Henry Sosa, and Tim Alderson looking very near to major-league ready, but other than Buster Posey and Angel Villalone, both of whom are probably still at least a year away, the Giants position player prospects are pretty pathetic. In the last ten year the Giants have only groomed one position player who became a major-league regular (Pedro Feliz). Sandoval is going to be the next and maybe Travis Ishikawa will join him, but guys like Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholz, and Kevin Frandson look like busts. If the Giants want to go for the NL Wild Card this year, they are going to need to acquire a bat. Most of the early rumors have surrounded Matt Holiday and I'd bet Billy Beane would be thrilled to get one of the pitchers mentioned above, with a few well-chosen B-level guys thrown in. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Giants seriously considered Miguel Tejada, Carlos Lee, Alex Rios, and Freddy Sanchez, among others.
- The '09 Rays are not the '08 Rockies. Tampa Bay's +76 run differential (3rd in MLB) says a great deal about how good they are, despite being in third place in their division. They begin the second-half with a ten-game road trip against Kansas City, Chicago, and Toronto, against whom they will no doubt be favored, despite the fact that they are only 18-26 on the road so far. A strong start to the second half may be critical if they are going to surpass either the Yanks or the Red Sox (or both). (An interesting note: all three AL East contenders have great home records thusfar and the Yankees have the most home games remaining in the second half, 39 compared to 36 for both Boston and Tampa.) What bodes well for the Rays, in my opinion, is that Scott Kazmir appears to be close to becoming his dominant self again (despite a poor outing on Thursday), David Price recently outdueled Roy Halladay for his best start since being promoted, and James Shields' monthly ERA splits look like this: 3.74, 3.35, 3.15, 3.14. If the rotation (currently a 4.56 ERA) comes around, the Rays become the American League's best team...again.
- Prince Albert is "crowned" King Pujols. There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. Pujols will have to hold off Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Hanley Ramirez, but he's very much positioned to do the near unthinkable. He's ten homers up on Howard (who I guarantee will pass Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds by the end of July), nine RBI up on Fielder, and seventeen points back of Ramirez (who has spent much of the last two weeks nursing an injury). It would appear that average will be the greatest test, but while Pujols .332 is right in line with his career (.335), Ramirez is currently a dozen points above his best full season, 25 over his career, and nursing a hip flexor (see A-Rod, Mike Lowell), and Pujols nearest contention besides him is a rookie, Pablo Sandoval, and a Mets' outfielder, Carlos Beltran, who might be out for much of the rest of the season.
- Expect a regression to the mean. In other words, just as David Ortiz and Ricky Nolasco were not as "done" as many were prepared to declare them, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, and Magglio Ordonez are not as bad as they have thusfar demonstrated, nor are Ben Zobrist, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds likely to be as good as they have looked before the break. We all know, track records don't lie. Teamwise, that's probably good news for the Rays, Cubs, and Phillies, maybe not so good for the Marlins, Brewers, and Rangers.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.
Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams
My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.
Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams
I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.
Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams
I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.
Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams
Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.
Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams
Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.
Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams
The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.
Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams
Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.
J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams
The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.
Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams
My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.
Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams
I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.
Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams
I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.
Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams
Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.
Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams
Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.
Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams
The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.
Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams
Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.
J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams
The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.
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