HippeauxNotes: Will the Brewers ever win again?

It looked like it might finally happen on Thursday evening.  They had the lead as late as the seventh inning.  Then, in the ninth, down by two, Ryan Braun stole second with nobody out.  Unfortunately, he got duped by Andy LaRoche, who pretended as though the ball had gotten away.  Braun busted for third and was immediately tagged out, much to the delight of Octavio Dotel, who struck out Prince Fielder and retired Casey McGehee on a soft liner to right, thus picking up his ninth save.

The Brewers, my pick for NL Central champion, finally ended the losing streak on Friday night.  They now sit seven and a half games back of the division-leading Cardinals.  They have been atrocious at home (4-14), but the obvious problem is, as usual, pitching.  The Brewers are second in the NL in scoring runs, but second worst at allowing them.

Some of this was frankly unforeseeable.  The Brewers hired two veteran relievers with long track records coming off dominant seasons, LaTroy Hawkins and Trevor Hoffman, and the pair have combined for six losses, seven blown saves, and an ERA upwards of 11.00.  It's hard to balance that kind of squalor at the backend of your bullpen.

However, Ken Macha and Doug Melvin are hardly above reproach.  Manny Parra and Chris Narveson were excellent during the preseason, yet Milwaukee exiled them both to the bullpen and wasted nine starts on Jeff Suppan (5.91 ERA) and an apparently unhealthy Doug Davis (7.56 ERA).  Since Narveson entered the rotation, he's 3-1 with a respectable ERA (4.24) and a strong K/BB ratio (28/10).  Parra joins him this week.  Hopefully, if Brewers starters can start eating up more innings, the team's primary weakness won't be as dramatically overexposed.

The fact remains, however, if the Brewers are to have any hope of salvaging the season, they need to dramatically overhaul their bullpen.  That process has begun.  Carlos Villanueva (2.91 ERA, 11.22 K/9) has officially taken over as closer, while John Axford and Marco Estrada were promoted from AAA.  I remain convinced that given the weaknesses of the Cardinals, Reds, and Cubs, the Brewers are not yet out of contention, but they are probably only a handful of blown leads away.

Offseason Prospectus #4: The Milwaukee Brewers

Not too long ago I posted about the "I-94 swap" of J. J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. At the time I presumed that Gomez would have another year prior to arbitration, but as it turned out, he squeaked into that magical "super two" class by the hair on his chinny-chin-chin. Of the 210 players up for arbitration this winter, only Mike Fontenot and Dustin Nippert have less service time than Gomez. The center-fielder won't get a massive award, but his salary will at least double, to somewhere in the vicinity of a million dollars, which makes him slightly less of a steal. Hardy, of course, will likely make at least five or six times that, so Milwaukee is still getting the "payroll flexibility" they claim to be coveting.

Free Agents:

Mike Cameron (37) CF

Craig Counsell (39) INF

Jason Kendall (36) C

Braden Looper (35) RHSP

Felipe Lopez (30) 2B

Claudio Vargas (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Dave Bush (30) RHSP

Todd Coffey (29) RHRP

Jody Gerut (32) OF

Carlos Gomez (24) CF

Corey Hart (28) RF

Seth McClung (29) RHRP

Mike Rivera (33) C

Carlos Villanueva (26) RHSP

Rickie Weeks (27) 2B

ETA 2010?:

Chris Cody (26) LHSP

Tim Dillard (26) RHP

Alcides Escobar (23) SS

Matt Gamel (24) 3B

Jonathan Lucroy (23) C

Chris Narveson (28) LHSP

Angel Salome (23) C

In the last five years, Milwaukee has become quite possibly the finest small-market franchise in the country. So far, they only have one playoff appearance to show for it, in 2008, largely because they face stiff divisional competition from the Cubs (#3 payroll in '09), Cardinals (#13), and Astros (#9), but the Brewers continually draft well, develop well, and make wise, low-risk acquisitions (Jeff Suppan aside). They have exactly one player signed beyond 2010 and his name is Ryan Braun, one of the safest long term investments in all of baseball, who they've wrapped up all the way to 2015.

GM Doug Melvin made a point of resigning legendary closer Trevor Hoffman before he had a chance to test the free agent market. $8 Million is a significant investment for Milwaukee (who had a total payroll of about $80 Million in '09), but Hoffman was excellent at the back-end of games in his first season with the Brewers and provides veteran leadership in the very young clubhouse (which is likely to lose other popular veterans Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron) and a stabilizing presence in the volatile bullpen.

The Brewers lineup is loaded. The Brewers pitching staff is not. Yovani Gallardo proved himself ready to be an Ace after the departure of C. C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, but absolutely nobody stepped up to fill out the rest of the rotation. Manny Parra, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva still possess promising arms, but none of them posted an ERA below 6.00 as starters in '09. Not an encouraging sign. Suppan continued his precipitous early 30s decline. In each of his three years since joining the Brewers, his ERA, WHIP, and BB have gone up, while his wins, innings, and strikeouts have gone down. I defy even the most obstinate sabermetrician to find a positive indicator among his peripherals.

While the Brewers remain stocked with talented hitters in the high levels of the minor leagues, they are not replete with quality arms. Jeremy Jeffress is at least a year or two away. Tim Dillard and Chris Cody regressed at AAA, although there is still time for them to develop into fair back-end starters. Chris Capuano is still recovering from his Tommy John and, Chris Narveson, who pitched very well both at AAA and in a big-league cup of coffee in 2009 is nonetheless a 28-year-old rookie with a minor-league record of 52-66.

If the Brewers could find one top-flight starter to pair with Gallardo, they might be able to cobble together at least an average rotation, which would make them very dangerous, considering their loaded offense. John Lackey is not a good fit. He is too risky and too expensive for a club with significant financial constraints, although he might display Sabathia/Cliff Lee type dominance over the short term with a move to the National League. The Brewers might explore a Ben Sheets renaissance, if he were willing to take an incentive-laden one-year deal to re-establish his value after missing all of '09. It could be a good thing for both parties. Sheets gets to pitch in a stadium, division, and league that he is familiar with while he tries to shake off the rust, and he has a lethal Brewers lineup to take a little pressure off.

In a perfect world, the Brewers would make a run on Roy Halladay. They are among the few teams who have enough prospects to tempt the Blue Jays without completely decimating their team for many years to come. Certainly, it is nice to have a wave of fresh talent every season, as Milwaukee has had in each of the last half dozen years, but at some point they are going to have to be willing to mortgage a bit of the future in order to go for a World Series. That is, unfortunately, a fact of life for teams in the middle and lower payroll tiers. Halladay, paired with Gallardo, Braun, and Fielder, would make the Brewers one of the most feared teams in all of baseball, but he would probably cost Milwaukee at least three of their top five prospects.

Few teams have the excess of talent which makes relatively inexpensive and quality hitters like Hardy, Cameron, and Felipe Lopez expendable, but Milwaukee does. Even after a minor house-cleaning, Ken Macha will be challenged to find regular big-league at-bats for Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Mat Gamel. The Brewers will also have to decide whether they can afford to hand over full-time catching chores to Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy, both rookies. They may decided it is necessary to bring back Kendall in a more limited role. Or, they may look for a cheaper option, somebody who has more experience as a back-up, like Jose Molina, Gregg Zaun, or Ramon Castro.

Braun and Fielder have replaced Manny and Papi as the most consistent and dangerous tandem in baseball, but if the Brewers are going to make a run, the rest of the lineup will need step up. Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks both have tons of talent, but were limited by injuries in '09. They need to step up and become the Brewer's versions of Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth. Escobar and Gomez will give Milwaukee superior defense up the middle, with the potential to become solid bottom-of-the-lineup producers. Escobar hit over .300 in his 38 game audition in '09, but with no power (.368 SLG). He's still just 23, so there is lots of room for development. The real depth of the Brewers attack may ride on the question of whether Casey McGehee can duplicate his rookie performance. His '09 OPS was significantly higher than any he posted in the minors. If he regresses, then Mat Gamel will need to live up to his hype. His 2008 production was one of the reasons Milwaukee was comfortable parting ways with Matt LaPorta. He took a small step back at AAA, but still showed excellent power and fair plate discipline. If he becomes a legitimate five or six hole slugger, the Brewers lineup may supplant Philadelphia as the best in the NL.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

2B Rickie Weeks (R)

3B Casey McGehee (R)

LF Ryan Braun (R)

1B Prince Fielder (L)

RF Corey Hart (R)

SS Alcides Escobar (R)

CF Carlos Gomez (R)

C Angel Salome (R)

SP Yovani Gallardo (R)

SP Randy Wolf (L)

SP Manny Parra (L)

SP Dave Bush (R)

SP Jeff Suppan (R)

CL Trevor Hoffman (R)

SU LaTroy Hawkins (R)

SU Todd Coffey (R)

LOOGY Mitch Stetter (L)

MR David Riske (R)

SWING Carlos Villanueva (R)

MOP Claudio Vargas (R)

MOP Chris Narveson (L)

C Gregg Zaun (S)

IF Mat Gamel (L)

IF Craig Counsell (L)

OF Jody Gerut (L)

Vote For Kung Fu Panda

As I mentioned when I wrote up my preview last week, I don't envy Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel. There are far more deserving candidates this season than there are roster spots for the All-Star game, even when you include the expanded pitching staff and the vote-in guys. The job is made even more difficult by the fact that the fans voted in Dustin Pedroia (whose 761 OPS ranks him as 8th out of the eleven AL second-basemen with 225 or more plate appearances) and Josh Hamilton (who has spent almost the entire first half on the D.L. and didn't play particularly well when he wasn't there).  And the players added a few likable veterans who are having decent seasons, but probably aren't the best choices.  I'm thinking of Michael Young, Orlando Hudson, and Ryan Zimmerman.  

One bit of good news. Charlie Manuel will essentially get two more chances to do right, since Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez, both deserving candidates, are unlikely to be healthy enough to participate.

Top 5 Snubs:

1.) Pablo Sandoval - 3B/1B/C - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda isn't just blossoming into a fan-favorite in the bay area, he is undeniably one of the ten or twelve best hitters in the N.L. this season.  He is fourth in the league in batting average (.332) and ninth in OPS (958).  And, among N.L. third-basemen (his primary position this season), he is the cream of the crop.  Here are his stats compared to David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman:

Sandoval - .332/.386/.564, 37 R, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 59.3 RC

Wright - .326/.414/.470, 51 R, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 59.7 RC

Zimmerman - .293/.361/.479, 55 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 53.1 RC

There are two things, however, which make Sandoval a more deserving candidate, beyond his impressive statistics.  First of all, he's been asked to play three different positions (and he hits regardless of where he plays).  Wouldn't that versatility (and that catcher eligibility) be valuable on a roster than is currently carrying four first-baseman and only two catchers?  And, most importantly in my mind, while Zimmerman's surge may have much to do with the addition of Adam Dunn (more on that later) and Wright has, despite the Mets rash of injuries, been surrounded by guys like Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield, and Jose Reyes for most of the year, Sandoval really is an island.  The Giants team OPS is 704, 15th in the N.L., compared to 740 for the Mets (6th) and 743 for the Nationals (5th).  Sandoval leads his team in AVG., OPS,  
OBP., SLG., H, 2B, HR, TB, RBI, and BB.  His lineup protection is Bengie Molina (706 OPS) and a carousel of guys like Travis Ishikawa, Andres Torres, and Nate Schierholtz.  The Giants, even with their spectacular pitching, simply would not be contenders if it wasn't for his monster season thusfar.  To me, that screams All-Star.

2.) Jered Weaver - SP - Los Angeles Angels

I'm as happy as anybody to see Tim Wakefield making his first All-Star appearance, but, really, it comes at Weaver's expense. He is by far the best pitcher left off the AL roster. The numbers are good (9-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 95 K, 114 IP), but the other part of the story, as with Sandoval, is that the Angels would be nowhere near first place without him. When the Angels rotation (and roster, generally) was decimated by injuries early in the season, Weaver rose to the occasion and demonstrated the maturity of an Ace, something that many of us have been expected from him for the last couple years. He consistently went deep into games and ended losing streaks.  In seventeen starts Weaver has failed to go six inning only four times (never less than five) and has gone seven or more inning ten times, including three complete games (which ties him for 2nd most in MLB).  He deserves this accolade more than several of the pitchers who were chosen.

3.) Yovani Gallardo & Trevor Hoffman - SP & RP - Milwaukee Brewers

Yes, the Brewers are already represented by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but the fact is, nobody thought the Brewers would be anywhere near contenders this season, not because they didn't believe Prince and the Hebrew Hammer would be doing exactly what they're doing, but because they lost their three most valuable pitchers from last year's Wild Card winner: C. C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Salomon Torres.  Gallardo (8-5, 2.75 ERA, 114 K, 1.15 WHIP) and Hoffman (18/19 SV, 1.93 ERA) have at least slightly ameliorated the sting of those losses and the Brew Crew is currently one game out of first place.  I know the math wouldn't allow for both of them to make the team.  But, I'll put it this way: Fuck Jason Marquis.

4.) Adam Dunn - OF - Washington Nationals

The Nats are the worst team in baseball, so, there wasn't much chance of them getting two representatives.  So, when Zimmerman was voted in by the players, Dunn was plum out of luck.  Although, somehow, Charlie Manuel decided that Christian Guzman deserved a place on the Final Vote ballot more than Dunn.  Dunn is very quietly having a career year, making many franchises who passed on him over the winter look a little silly.  He's currently on pace for 44 HR and 119 RBI, right in line with his usual totals, but he's also hitting 20 points above his career average.  Zimmerman has already nearly equaled his total output from 2008 and much of his production has to do with the fact that Dunn is hitting behind him.  

5.) Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers

Kinsler just missed being elected by the fans, as a Boston bias prompted him to get passed in the final week, and he still has a chance to get in on the Final Vote. And, I would agree that if Maddon could only afford one more second-baseman (besides Pedroia), Aaron Hill was the right choice (Hill was added to the roster by his fellow players). Nonetheless, Kinsler is quite worthy among AL 2B, with 19 HR (2nd), 59 R (2nd), and 51 RBI (2nd) in the first half, as well as 16 SB (2nd) and an 825 OPS (2nd). Adding to his well-known offensive attributes is that fact that he's made significant strides on defense, leading the AL in Range Factor and second to Placido Polanco in Ultimate Zone Rating.

Honorable Mentions: Jermaine Dye - RF - Chicago White Sox, Scott Rolen - 3B - Toronto Blue Jays, Adam Lind - DH - Toronto Blue Jays, Zack Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates, Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

Top 5 Duds:

1.) Jason Marquis & Tim Wakefield - SP - Colorado Rockies & Boston Red Sox

I pair these two, not because they are anything alike as players or individuals (i.e. I like Wakefield), but because both were added based largely on gaudy win totals which were accumulated due to a significant amount of good fortune.  Both have been solid pitchers, but not All-Star caliber.  Wakefield's 4.30 ERA is good for only 27th in the A.L. (among starting pitchers) and Marquis' 3.61 is 21st in the N.L.  Add to that their abyssmal K/BB rates and their outstanding run support (8.85 R/9 for Wakefield [1st among pitchers in the A.L. with 100 IP], 6.67 R/9 for Marquis [6th in N.L.]) and we get a much more accurate sense of their seasons.   

2.) Hunter Pence - RF - Houston Astros

I don't know what to make of the fact that he was selected by his fellow players.  It is possible that they have seen something that I haven't.  Here's a point of contention:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .295/.344/.464 - 34 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB

C .270/.402/.526 - 43 R, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB

Player A is Hunter Pence.  Player B is Carlos Lee.  And Player C is Lance Berkman.  All three are having very similar seasons, but Lee and Berkman have much more star power and much longer track records of success.  What makes Pence a better choice to represent the Astros? Here's another comparison:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .266/.425/.546 - 38 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 0 SB

C .305/.369/.474 - 43 R, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 19 SB

D .263/.364/.491 - 56 R, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 11 SB

Again, A is Pence.  B is Dunn, C is Matt Kemp, and D is Jayson Werth.  It would appear to me that B, C, and D are all at least equal to A, probably superior, especially when you factor in that Kemp and Werth are better defenders.  Dunn is definitely the biggest star in the group, while Werth and Kemp both play for more successful franchises.  I just can't figure out what Pence is doing which commands so much support from his peers.  Perhaps his awkwardness just makes him more memorable.

3.) Michael Young - 3B - Texas Rangers

To begin with, one could argue that there are three guys on his own team - Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Kevin Millwood - who are more deserving. Mort importantly, there are at least two guys at his position who are obviously better choices. It isn't that Young is having a bad year, offensively, it's just that Brandon Inge and Scott Rolen are have demonstrably better seasons both at the plate and in the field, where Young has been especially putrid (-11.3 UZR, last in MLB).

4.) Brian Fuentes - RP - Los Angeles Angels

Maybe it says somewhere in a little black book that the manager's receive that the league leader in saves must be selected. Because, with the exception of that tidbit, which is largely due to the propensity of chances in Anaheim (remember that record-breaking performance by K-Rod last season), Fuentes hasn't been all that great.  He's pitched the fewest inning of any closer who was selected and his ERA (3.38) is more than half-a-run higher than the next All-Star closer (Broxton, 2.72). Certainly not as good as guys like David Aardsma (17/18, 1.41), George Sherrill (18/21, 2.43), and Joakim Soria (13/15, 1.66). And that's just to name some relievers. One might also argue that Fuentes' spot could've been more appropriately used on, say, his teammate, Jered Weaver, who has a significantly better ERA, despite pitching quadruple the innings.

5.) Freddy Sanchez - 2B - Pittsburgh Pirates

Part of his selection was All-Star math.  The Pirates needed to be represented.  But, in my opinion, Zack Duke is having a hell of a season (8-7, 3.28), certainly better than Jason Marquis, probably better than Francisco Cordero as well.  Could've bumped one of them and made room for Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, or Brandon Phillips.  Again, it isn't that Sanchez has been bad, it is just that he offers very little besides a high average (.316).  He doesn't hit for power or drive in runs, he doesn't steal bases, and he doesn't play particularly strong defense (which is the one quality that Orlando Hudson has over him).  

Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Hamilton - CF - Texas Rangers, Dustin Pedroia - 2B - Boston Red Sox, Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals

Hall of Fame Questions

Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza have officially announced their retirements.  Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds have been forced into exile.  John Smoltz, Ken Griffey Jr., Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux have expiring contracts and have been dropping occasional hints.  The heroes of my early teens will soon become managers, pitching coaches, bad broadcasters, and semi-anonymous multi-millionaires, so it seems like a good time to discuss the inevitable questions of Hall of Fame credentials.  

First of all, in my opinion, it is a given that all of the players mentioned above are shoo-in first ballot players.  As should be Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro.  It may be "The Steroid Era," and some of these guys may have benefitted for performance-enhancing drugs, but most, if not all, of them would've been enshrined regardless and I don't think there is anything more shameful about this "era" than "The Segregation Era," "The Anti-Semetism Era," "The Spitball Era," and "The Collusion Era" (has it ended?).  Unlike Bud Selig and the MLB marketing department, I am not attracted to baseball history by any illusion of Disney World purity.  Any good historian knows, accuracy is almost always more entertaining than myth.  

I would like to consider the cases of a few borderline players who are entering the twilight of their careers.

Derek Jeter - SS - New York Yankees

I am a board-certified Jeter-hater, as most of you know, but I am not so prejudiced as to be incapable of looking at him rationally.  If he gets to 3,000 hits, which seems a foregone conclusion, he deserves to get into the Hall.  Jeter is great contact hitter, I have never disputed that.  He is a postseason God, there can be no doubt.  What makes me think that he's dramatically overrated is his putrid defense and the fact that the infamous captain doesn't seem to have all that much positive sway in a clubhouse which is constantly in turmoil.  I also think that the fawning of commentators over his potential run at 4,000 hits is ridiculous.  Jeter is 34.  He would need more than 7 seasons of 200+ hits to get to 4,000.  He has only gotten to 200 hits in six of his first twelve full seasons.  Jeter's power is dramatically declining (fewer homers in each of the last four seasons), as is his speed (only 16 for 24 in stolen bases the last two years).  He will, naturally, be less of an iron-man as he ages, as demonstrated by a trip to the D.L. already this season (the first since 2003).  Jeter's future is uncertain in many ways.  His massive contract will expire after 2010.  One would expect he will remain a Yankee, though at a significant discount, but his role will have to be determined.  I think even Yankee fans and management are near to the realization that he won't be a shortstop for much longer.  His range and fielding percentage have declined every season since 2005.  He was arguably the worst in the AL in 2007 (last in Range Factor, last in Zone Rating, 6th in Fielding Percentage).  However, he doesn't profile as the kind of hitter the Yankees expect for their corner outfield positions.  They just signed a pretty good player to be their third baseman for the next decade.  So, are the Yankees going to let excellent young players like Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera become free agents so that they can free up space for a declining singles-hitting captain who may not be particularly good at second or in center.  We'll have to wait and see.

Chipper Jones - 3B - Atlanta Braves

The long-time face of the evil Braves isn't exactly my favorite player, but I have to agree with Rob Neyer's article arguing for Jones' inevitable enshrinement.  Like Jeter, Jones has led many of his teams to postseason appearances and performed well when there (13 HR and 870 OPS in 92 games).  Unlike Jeter, he hasn't exactly been indestructible.  He hasn't played upwards of 140 games since 2003.  However, when he's been in the lineup, there's been no sign of decline.  He doesn't steal bases anymore, but he hasn't since he turned 30 (he's 36 now), and he actually seems to be getting better as a hitter.  His OPS has improved every year since 2004.  So, it seems safe to say he will improve on numbers which are already pretty noteworthy.  Among third baseman, only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews have hit more home runs, and if he hits 25+ for four more years (not impossible), he might catch Matthews.  His career OPS is the best ever (for 3B).  He'll certainly reach 1500 RBI (moving him into the top 50 all-time) and has an outside shot at 3,000 hits.  Chipper won't get any assistance from his defense, but he shouldn't need it.  And, it goes without saying, this discussion isn't even necessary if he hits .400 this season.

Jason Varitek - C - Boston Red Sox

Varitek is a great example of the kind of player who might be overlooked in an era of offensive production.  However, he is the first Red Sox catcher to capture two World Championships since Pinch Thomas (1915 & 1916) and his newsworthy record of being behind the plate for four no-hitters might help him garner some voter attention.  Varitek's talent behind the plate has been underestimated because he's played most of his career in the shadow of Pudge Rodriguez.  His only Gold Glove came in 2005.  His offensive numbers are nothing to be ashamed of.  Among players who have spent 90% of their careers behind the plate, Varitek is 8th in OPS.  Of the seven players in front of him, only Chris Hoiles has no shot at the Hall (4 are already in, Rodriguez is a shoo-in, and, speaking of catchers with handfuls of rings, Jorge Posada is another borderline selection).  If he were eligible tomorrow, I don't think I'd vote for him, but that doesn't mean a couple more BoSox championships wouldn't persuade me otherwise.

Mike Mussina - SP - New York Yankees

Moose hasn't been very good for the last few years, I know.  He's never won 20 games in a season or a Cy Young and a run at 300 wins isn't looking likely.  But he's got more strikeouts than Tom Glavine and only two players (Mickey Lolich & Frank Tanana) with as many strikeouts as the Moose are not in the Hall (or headed there).  He's got more wins than Curt Schilling and a better winning percentage than Schilling, Glavine, Smoltz, and Greg Maddux (!), all players from the same era who played for good teams and seem certainly headed for Cooperstown.  However, only one player (Red Ruffing) with an ERA as high as Mussina on his career (3.71) is in the Hall.  Mussina could be in the position to change the standards.  Baseball pundits seem confident that the 300 win plateau is going to be unrealistic for this generation's pitchers.  The 3.50 career ERA might be a similarly high expectation, considering the AL average in the last decade has been well above 4.50.  I'd say no to Mussina, but I bet a significant number of baseball writers will feel otherwise.

Trevor Hoffman - RP - San Diego Padres

I know, the game's all-time leader in saves should be a sure thing, right?  Well, it didn't work out that way for Lee Smith and he had more wins, more strikeouts, more innings pitched, and more All-Star appearances than Hoffman, with a similarly good career ERA (3.03 compared to 2.76) and several downright dominating seasons.  Like Smith, Hoffman never won a World Series and he only got there once.  More importantly, when Smith became eligible in 2002, he was still the reigning saves king, which would've seemed to help his case.  By the time Hoffman's name gets on the ballot, he probably will have been surpassed by Mariano Rivera, whose credentials are, frankly, much, much more impressive.  He already leads Hoffman in wins, ERA, innings, and All-Star appearances, not to mention that ridiculous postseason line: 8-1, 34 SV, 0.77 ERA, 91 K, 16 BB, 117 IP.  There are only four full-time relievers in the Hall, none of them with upwards of 400 saves.  They will be setting a new precedent when they enshrine a career closer.  Something tells me that Mo Rivera is destined to be that precedent (though Hoffman may follow him).