"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Cincinnati Reds

I'm continuing my ongoing assessment of playoff-bound franchise based upon their dramatic appeal with a look at the Cincinnati Reds.  Here's what's to like:

• The Cleveland of Southern Ohio: We generally make a big deal out of cities with tortured fan-bases, but for some reason, Cincinnati rarely makes that list, even though the city went a decade (from '95-'05) without even sniffing the playoffs in either football or baseball.  The last time they celebrated a championship was 1990.  Certainly, their drought is miniature in comparison with some of the other teams in the league, but of all the remaining contenders, the Reds are the franchise that has waited the longest for the opportunity to play baseball in October.
• A Big Middle Finger To Billy DeWitt, Jr.:  The Cardinals aren't exactly the "Evil Empire," but they are the most successful franchise in the history of the N.L. and they were heavily favored to runaway with the Central division again when the season began.  But former St. Louis GM, Walt Jocketty, has run roughshod over his former club.  To considerable astonishment, Cardinal's owner, Bill DeWitt, fired Jocketty only a year after the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series, despite the fact that he'd taken the Redbirds to the postseason eight times in the previous twelve seasons.  The Reds jumped at the opportunity to land Jocketty, immediately hiring him as a consultant and inserting him as GM less than a year later.  One of his first orders of business was the acquisition of another disgruntled former Cardinal, Scott Rolen, who has had a resurgent season at the center of the Reds lineup.  Rumors swirled last offseason that Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan might soon follow.  Getting back to the promised land before DeWitt would by the capstone of Jocketty's calculated revenge.
• Baker's Curse: Dusty Baker is, by all accounts, one of the most likable managers in the sport.  He's adored by his players, convivial with the media, and never squabbles with his front office.  He has also been very successful.  This will be his fourth division title, with his third different team.  He's been named Manager of the Year three times, and could make it four with this year's performance.  He also took the Wild Card Giants to within eight outs of a Championship in 2002 and the lowly Cubs to within five outs of the World Series in 2003.  His 1400+ victories rank him 25th all-time and within a couple years he will have moved well inside the top 20.  Of the 24 managers currently in front of him, sixteen are in the Hall of Fame, and Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, Ton LaRussa, and Jim Leyland are almost certainly headed there sooner or later.  However, all those who gained induction as managers had won at least one World Series.  Baker has never gotten his team to the podium and, at 62, he may be running out of chances.  We can be certain, if the Reds have a lead in the late innings of a deciding game, Baker's gonna be sucking on that toothpick like it was his last cigarette before storming the beach at Normandy in 1944. 
• The Lucky Charm: Orlando Cabrera is no longer the player he was in the prime of his career, when he was a Gold Glove middle infielder and top-of-the-order hitter, who could surprise you with his power.  However, O.C. has been to the postseason six times in the last seven years and with six different franchises.  Last year, the Charm hit a crucial homer in Game 163 to lift the Twins into the playoffs, but other than that, he's struggled in October, with just a 609 OPS.

The primary appeal of the Reds is that they are a team which very few fans outside of Cincinnati will have any familiarity with.  They have an MVP candidate, Joey Votto, who was best know, prior to this season, for having missed time due to anxiety.  Cabrera, Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo have considerable postseason experience, but few other Reds do.  Those who haven't had the opportunity to watch them play are going to be wildly surprised by how players like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and   Edinson Volquez are.  They will be even more of an underdog in perception than they are in reality just because they have so few household names.  That's exactly the kind of thing that pumps up your NLF.

Narrative Likability Factor: A

Look out for falling prices...

When I previewed free agency in mid-November there were 83 featured players.  As of this morning, 48 of them had either signed, accepted arbitration, or retired, including all of the players who I expected to dictate the market: Holliday, Bay, Lackey, Chapman, Figgins, and Valverde.  At this point, with the beginning of Spring Training only a month away, those who remained unsigned are starting to get anxious.  Many teams have already declared themselves "spent" this offseason.  So, with demand shrinking, we are also looking at an inevitable drop in prices, particularly at those positions which still feature a fair supply of options.  During the waning months of the last offseason, several players signed cheap, short contracts and proceeded to produce well above their pay grade, including Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Orlando Hudson.  If you believe, as Eric Karabell says, that "there is no such thing as a risky one-year deal," than this is a great time for general managers to play with the house's money.

Orlando Hudson & Orlando Cabrera

This is the second time the Orlandos have found themselves in this unsavory position in the last twelve months.  Last winter both players signed one-year deals for under $4 Million.  Frankly, I don't understand it.  Both players are Gold Glove-winning middle infielders who are solid, sometimes superlative, offensive catalysts, and are also widely recognized as good teammates and energizing clubhouse presences.

Hudson is suffering in part because of his mysterious benching by Joe Torre late in last season.  Torre elected to turn to Ron Belliard (who's also still available) more and more in September and October, even though Hudson was an '09 All-Star and really only had one poor month (June).  In fact, his OPS+ (109) was the highest of his career.  Nevertheless, though O-Dog very well may have had legitimate beef with Torre's decision, he never voiced any displeasure and he embraced his newfound role, even coming up with a pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Cabrera's season had a slightly different arch, as he slumped with Oakland through the first four months of the season, but when he came to the Twins, he immediately became a favored member of the club, lauded by fans and management, who inspired his teammates and came up with several big hits (none bigger than the homer he hit in Game 163 against Detroit).

To me, these seem like players who you want on your club, but for the second year in a row the bulk of general managers have disagreed.

Potential Suitors (for Hudson): Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Nationals
Potential Suitors (for Cabrera): Astros, Reds, Twins

Miguel Tejada

The former AL MVP has the opposite problem from Hudson and Cabrera, whose perceived weaknesses are clearly as hitters.  Tejada proved in '09 that he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, by leading the NL in doubles and batting .313.  Even though he's a free swinger (only 19 BB in '09), there are very few teams that would welcome his addition to their lineup.  The problem is that many believe that Tejada's defensive skills have eroded to the point that he is no longer a satisfactory option at the game's premier defensive position, shortstop.  As such, Tejada's marketability in the coming months depends largely on his willingness to make a switch, probably to third base or designated hitter.  If he can swallow his pride and commit to such a conversion, just as Michael Young did prior to last season, he will see a dramatic increase in suitors and a corresponding increase in salary.

Potential Suitors: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics

Erik Bedard & Ben Sheets

One of the new business of baseball catchphrases is "reestablish his market."  It refers to players who need to take a short-term contract, not only because current demand necessitates it, but because it will be better for them in the long run.  Assuming they prove their health and effectiveness, Bedard and Sheets could be in line for much, much larger paydays a year from now.  Both have the potential to be frontline starters.  Sheets is a four-time All-Star (he started the game for the NL as recently as 2008) who is still in his early thirties.  Bedard is also just 31-years-old and looked on his way to becoming an Ace before injuries limited him to only thirty starts in two seasons with Seattle.  Even so, in those thirty starts, Bedard went 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 162 K in 164 IP, which gives you a sense of what he might've been capable of if he was fully healthy.

This is where Karabell's maxim really comes under fire.  If your teams signs one of these pitchers, you expect them to produce, at the very least, like a #2 (just ask those Cubs fans who assumed Rich Harden would be a Cy Young contender in '09 after he looked so dominant during the second half of '08).  Unfortunately, the odds are that at least one of these guys not only will fail to fulfill that expectation, but will probably miss most of the season, potentially crushing a whole city's dreams in the process.

Potential Suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Brewers

Offseason Prospectus #8: The Minnesota Twins

I didn't watch many Twins games until late in the season, but in September and October I discovered that Minnesota had fielded a very compelling, likable team, albeit one that was obviously flawed. That the Twinkies were able to make it as far as they did, despite carrying one of baseball's worst rotations and several automatic outs at the back-end of their lineup, is a testament to Ron Gardenhire's leadership and also to the superior quality of the Twins bullpen and the top half of their lineup. It became clear, especially in the ALDS, that if you looked at only the best half dozen or so players on each team, the Twins were as good as the Yankees, or any other team in league for that matter. It was their lack of depth which proved to be their undoing. Minnesota's front office will be looking to improve at several positions before they open Target Field in 2010, but the Twins, never exactly a free-spending franchise, may be even more cash-strapped this winter as they protect the reserves necessary to sign Joe Mauer to the nine-figure deal which seems an inevitability.

During the last seven seasons the Twins have consistently maintained a payroll between $55 and $65 Million. Mauer's next contract will almost certainly earn him nearly $20 Million a season, as much as a third of Minnesota's limited resources. Add to that the $14 Million a year that Justin Morneau will be making through the 2013 season and it's utterly apparent that unless Minnesota commits to a considerable budget increase, they are going to have no financial flexibility. The signing of Mauer completely eliminates any possibility of retaining guys like Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan, and J. J. Hardy, all of whom will be eligible for free agency in the next two years, and it precludes Minnesota's ability to compete for the top tiers of free agents for the next four or five seasons at least. Can Minnesota bring home division titles, much less championships, when two players eat up 60% of the payroll?

On the other hand, letting Mauer walk is publicity suicide. He is the definition of a franchise player, a guy who not only dominates on the field, but has cultivated a personal connection with the community. Albert Pujols is probably the only analogous baseball player in today's game. In all honesty, probably the best place to look for a situation which resembles Mauer's is Cleveland, where the impending free agency of Lebron James is also haunting a city. Players like these are worth almost any amount of money. You not only build teams around them, but stadiums and brands, the material benefits of which will last even beyond the player's career. Ask the Chicago Bulls, or the Baltimore Orioles.

Free Agents:

Orlando Cabrera (35) SS

Joe Crede (32) 3B

Ron Mahay (39) RHRP

Carl Pavano (34) RHSP

Mike Redmond (39) C

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser (28) RHSP

Jesse Crain (28) RHRP

Matt Guerrier (31) RHRP

J. J. Hardy (27) SS

Brendan Harris (29) SS/3B

Francisco Liriano (26) LHRP

Pat Neshek (29) RHRP

Delmon Young (24) LF

ETA 2010?:

Justin Huber (27) 1B/DH

Jeff Manship (25) RHSP

Jason Pridie (26) CF

Anthony Swarzak (24) RHSP

The Twins ability to duplicate their 2009 success will be predicated primarily upon the health and effectiveness of their starting rotation. Three of Minnesota's best young pitchers - Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, and Pat Neshek - missed all or most of 2009 with injuries. Two others, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, struggled to regain the command and control they had displayed in previous seasons. If you had told Ron Gardenhire in April that Brian Duensing would be a key member of his September rotation, he probably would've assumed the Twins had long since lost any hope of contention. If at least a couple of their young guns can rebound, taking the pressure off Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, than the Twins will have a formidable rotation. Also, prospects Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship have both showed enough promise to offer Twins fans some solace in the event of another rash of injuries.

In addition to Mauer, who doesn't actually qualify for free agency until next year, the Twins have three major contractual decisions this winter. The most pressing is clearly Orlando Cabrera. OC was the sparkplug during the stretch run last fall, after being acquired from the A's, and provided some postseason heroics to boot. Gardenhire publicly applauded his veteran presence. The acquistion of J. J. Hardy, however, leaves Cabrera without a position. The Twins have suggested they would be willing to negotiate with him if he would consider moving to second base, but the former Gold Glove winner has understandable reservations. Cabrera and his agent gained considerable leverage this week when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration, which means negotiations with other teams will not be hampered by his A designation and dramatically reduces the chances of his resigning with Minnesota.

The Twins may pursue alternatives like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, but more likely will choose to either role the dice again on Alexi Casilla, who had a tough year in '09 but is still very young, or hand the position to the defensively spectacular, but offensively-challenged Nick Punto.

One could argue that Minnesota's needs at third base are even more pressing. In 2009, the Twins got next to nothing from the hot corner. Joe Crede's back kept him out of the lineup most of the year and hampered him when he was in it. His replacements - Punto, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris - were considerably worse, none of them achieving an OPS above 675 (league average = 763). There are an abundance of affordable third basemen available. The Twins could gamble on a power bat coming off an injury, like Crede, Aubrey Huff, or Troy Glaus. They could go a more defensively-minded direction with Pedro Feliz. Or for a little more money they could woo a more well-rounded veteran like Adrian Beltre or Miguel Tejada. My guess is that they'll go cheap and risky.

The final and probably least critical decision for Twins management is whether or not to retain Carl Pavano. Pavano made a dozen starts for the Twinks after arriving via a trade with the Indians last summer. He was hardly dominant (4.64 ERA), but he looked like a prototypical innings-eater, going six or more in ten of his twelve starts. On a staff that has tons of talent, but no pitcher older than 28, Pavano could be an inexpensive stabilizing presence.

Recent history has been pretty good to teams opening new ballparks. In 2006 the Cardinal christened the new Busch Stadium with a championship and last year the Yankees did the same in inauguration of their latest launching pad. Twins fans must hope that Target Field resembles these precedents rather than those of Citi Field (2009) and Nationals Park (2008).

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Denard Span (L)

SS J. J. Hardy (R)

C Joe Mauer (L)

1B Justin Morneau (L)

RF Michael Cuddyer (R)

DH Jason Kubel (L)

3B Troy Glaus (R) FA

LF Delmon Young (R)

2B Nick Punto (S)

SP Scott Baker (R)

SP Kevin Slowey (R)

SP Carl Pavano (R)

SP Nick Blackburn (R)

SP Francisco Liriano (L)

CL Joe Nathan (R)

SU Jon Rauch (R)

SU Matt Guerrier (R)

LOOGY Jose Mijares (L)

MR Pat Neshek (R)

MR Jesse Crain (R)

SWING Brian Duensing (L)

C Jose Morales (S)

IF Brendan Harris (R)

IF Matt Tolbert (S)

OF Jason Pridie (L)