This found its way into by inbox yesterday:
"Last year Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt helped to carry teams into the postseason after being traded at midseason. Which potential aces could be on the market at this year's deadline?" - Jerry
Thanks, Jerry. It's an interesting question.
Yes, last year Roy Oswalt was traded from Houston to Philadelphia and his dominance during a stretch of a dozen starts (7-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was a significant factor in the Phillies late-season push.
Ruben Amaro made a very similar move for Cliff Lee in 2009 and Lee famously went 11-4 for his new franchise, including four wins in the postseason. Last year, however, Lee's story was slightly different. He actually struggled (by his standards) in his fifteen regular season starts for the Rangers (4-6, 3.98 ERA), but did manage to make Jon Daniels look pretty good in October.
In 2008, it was C. C. Sabathia who was the mercenary former Indian. He absolutely carried his new team, the Brewers, into the playoffs with a 17 start run in which he was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7(!) complete games.
In the very same year, Rich Harden moved from Oakland to Chicago and went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts, helping to guide the Cubs to their best season since the Roosevelt administration.
The upshot of all this is that, like Jerry, we've come to treat the trading of a "mercenary Ace" as a necessary part of the baseball narrative, when, in fact, history shows that the examples cited above are very much outliers. Could it be that this is a new trend in the 21st-century game that will continue indefinitely? Perhaps. But it's also very possible that we see little or no movement of premier starters at the 2011 deadline.
One thing that leads me to this conclusion is that the class of free agent starting pitchers next offseason doesn't feature a marquis name like Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia. Mark Buehrle is probably the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent to 2012.
Buehrle is certainly capable of having an Oswalt-esque stretch of dominance. However, the other factor that makes this question hard to answer is that the availability of a Buehrle or a Chris Carpenter is largely dependent on whether their current franchises are still in the playoff mix. Kenny Williams has certainly managed his offseason like a man who expects to be playing for the AL Central crown in August and September. If that's the case, the face of the franchise, Mark Buehrle, ain't goin' nowhere.
If there's going to be a "mercenary Ace" in 2011, Carpenter is probably the odds-on favorite. Carp's current contract features a $15 Million option for 2012. As good as Carpenter is when he's on the mound, that's a big number for what will be a 37-year-old pitcher with a long injury history. St. Louis, as you may have heard, has some other very expensive priorities, so it may be sensible for John Mozeliak to leave the tough decision about Carpenter's option to somebody else.
On the other hand, Carpenter is very, very popular in St. Louis. He's owes a great deal to Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa. And he has "no-trade" protection. If he believes St. Louis has a chance of getting themselves back in the playoff picture in the next couple years, he may simple decline to move.
It's not always impending free agents who are involved in these deals. Lee (in '09) and Oswalt both had additional years when they were traded. There are certainly scenarios in which one could see Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, or Tim Hudson being shopped, but all of their teams are entering the season with sincere playoff aspirations. Even if they were to go on the market, each would command a relatively massive package in return and could end up, like Roy Halladay in 2009, being beyond the reach of interested clubs.
The other possibility is that their is a "once and future Ace" who is on the verge of having a Renaissance season. Candidates for that mantle would include Jake Peavy, James Shields, and Scott Kazmir. If they were to return to their former levels of production AND their current franchise fell out of the playoff picture by midseason, you could definitely see them being traded at a price which wasn't wholly insurmountable.
Finally, this gives me opportunity to tout one of the favorite sleeper candidates for 2011. Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros will be a free agent in 2012. Certainly, at this moment, nobody thinks of him as analogous to Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia, but just two years ago Wandy put up Ace numbers (14-12, 3.02 ERA, 206 IP, 193 K). His overall performance in 2010 was disappointing (11-12, 3.60 ERA), but don't make the mistake of overlooking his second half. From June 24th on, a stretch of 18 starts, Way-Rod went 8-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 126 K in 120 IP. One can imagine how much more press he would've gotten had he been pitching like that for a contender. The Astros are in rebuilding mode, and at 32, Wandy isn't exactly the kind of guy you build around. He'll be in motion by the deadline and if he begins 2011 in the fashion he ended 2012, there could be a bidding war.
Showing posts with label Cliff Lee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cliff Lee. Show all posts
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher
It's almost upon us. The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week. In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason. There are still a few outstanding free agents. Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs. Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons. Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts. If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues. For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes. Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:
Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.
Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins
Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.
Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.
Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs
I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.
Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres
It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.
J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.
Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:
Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.
Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.
Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox
From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.
Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.
Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
I've already commended the Greinke trade. The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar. Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA. It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support. Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds. The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating. Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200. He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now. You'll have to pay for that production.
Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins
Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media. He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins. With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous. He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league. It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams. The Marlins have a solid offense. And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.
Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds. Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.
Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee. Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier. In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. He went 12-2 against everybody else. At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs
I like Garza. I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011. I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East. I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm. However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate. I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers. And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball. Garza should contribute a boatload of innings. His ERA and WHIP should be very solid. And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound. I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins. Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.
Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres
It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07. Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons. In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park. He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells. Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State. It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.
J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%). Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one. In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA. Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K). For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.
Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:
Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals
Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010. He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward. Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland. Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels. Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation. All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.
Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies
Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential. According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies. I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season. However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant. Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production. Only twice has he topped 14 wins. He's never had more than 185 strikeouts. And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone. All that said, I like Lee. I just don't like the price.
Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers
What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage. His walk rate went way up. His K/BB rate went way down. He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate. And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005. Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor. As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way. This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball. Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing. He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him. Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.
Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox
From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks. Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success. A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox. Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace. But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant. Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06. Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent. In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.
Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs
Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh. Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL. Not a favorable combination.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Where have all the sluggers gone? (Hot Stove Preview)
I'm going to assume that early reports that Hiroki Kuroda has signed a one-year, $12 Million contract to stay with the Dodgers are true. If so, I think it's safe to say he gave them a home-town discount. Kuroda was arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the market this winter. With the exception of missing some time in 2009, Koruda has been extremely steady in the Dodger rotation over the last three seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. FanGraphs estimated his worth this past season at around $17 Million. Even though he is 35, he probably could've sought at least two or three years at $8-$10 Million per, considering his recent performance and the relative sparsity of free agent pitchers this offseason. Consider, as a comparable, that Randy Wolf got three years, $30 Million last season from Milwaukee.
Wrapping up Koruda for less money than he made the last two seasons represents a minor coup for Ned Colletti, who will likely be cash-strapped again this winter, as the McCourt divorce doesn't seem anywhere near resolution. The Dodgers are coming off a very disappointing season, but at least they have some stability in the rotation with Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw. Colletti can concentrate solely on finding a middle-of-the-order presence to pair with Andre Ethier. Considering his financial limitations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he looks long and hard at potential trade targets like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Dan Uggla. Los Angeles possesses a notoriously deep farm system, though Colletti is unlikely to mortgage his top talents unless he believes it will bring the kind of bat (like Fielder) who makes the Dodgers immediate favorites in the NL West.
Here's my first look at some of the other names you're likely to hear a lot in the next month...
1. Cliff Lee (Starting Pitcher)
Top Suitors: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers
In the last fifteen months, Cliff Lee has sure made up for all those years he spent being underrated in Cleveland. Some went so far as to call him the best postseason pitcher in history after two straight impressive Octobers with the Phillies and Rangers. Now he's primed to chase his friend and former teammate's mark for the largest average annual value in a multiyear contract for a starting pitcher. Since he's already in his thirties, teams may be reluctant to give Lee more than five years, but they may very well offer close to $25 Million per season. Also, although Lee is a talent any team would be interested in, several of the deepest pocketbooks this winter - Boston, Seattle, Detroit, etc. - aren't likely to chase pitching, which means it could come down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers.
Hippeaux's Prediction: New York Yankees (6 Yrs./$140 Million)
2. Carl Crawford (Left Field)
Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox
Crawford is in the pleasant position of being clearly the best hitter among a relatively thin class in the offseason following a severe league-wide offensive backslide. Crawford is the perfect player for team preparing to compete in a "pitcher's era." Not only is he a .300 hitter with decent power, but he is also an excellent baserunner and basestealer who is probably the best defender in the sport at his position. He's not yet thirty, but Crawford has already played nine full seasons, and only once did he fail to top 140 games. And, as if that weren't enough, he's reputed for his intangibles as well: a clubhouse leader in Tampa with a tireless work ethic and the charisma to illicit the same from his teammates. The bidding will be steep.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Boston Red Sox (7 Yrs./$130 Million)
3. Jayson Werth (Right Field)
Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals
Crawford may be "The Perfect Storm," but Werth is hardly short on tools. He's got power, speed, discipline, range, and an excellent throwing arm. He's also coming off easily the best year of his career and will be 32 in May of next year. There is reason to be cautious. We may have just witnessed his peak. That isn't to say that he won't be fairly productive for several more years, but the team that chooses to give him a nine-figure contract could soon find themselves with an Soriano-sized albatross. And who, besides the Cubs, has a penchant for such signings?
Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (6 Yrs./$100 Million)
4. Adrian Beltre (Third Base)
Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians
Beltre has his best season since 2004 and was a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP, which made Theo Epstein look like a bit a genius for signing him to a one-year, $9 Million deal. However, it may have served to make him even more of an enigma. Was his relatively modest production during his five years in Seattle really just a product of the ballpark? Is it possible he's one of those players who only steps it up during contract years? Was he inspired by playing for a contender (just as he did in '04)? There's no easy answer to these questions, which makes it hard to ante up for the 2010 Beltre (worth over $28 Million according to FanGraphs), when you may end up with the 2009 Beltre (worth less than $12 Million). Somebody will gamble, but not for more than three years.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$45 Million)
5. Adam Dunn (First Base/DH)
Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
Never has a player with five consecutive forty-homer season garnered so little interest as Adam Dunn did in 2009. His pathetic outfield defense and his massive strikeout totals scared all the contenders away, forcing Dunn to accept a two-year, $20 Million deal with the Nationals, even though he was a 29-year-old slugger. I would say, the hate was too great. Dunn has since moved to first base and, in all likelihood, is headed to DH at some point in the near future. All the while he's continued to hit moonshots. 76 of them during his two years in Washington. Only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had more. With power numbers falling around in the league, teams might have a little more patience for Dunn's limitations this offseason. The Big Donkey is not without his charms. He's basically unbreakable, having never missed more than ten games, since 2003. And he has a career OBP of .381, which is better than Mark Teixeira ($181 Million) or Ryan Howard ($125 Million), among others.
As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame. Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation. However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%). He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002). He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware. And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice). For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game. But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member). That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.
As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame. Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation. However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%). He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002). He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware. And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice). For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game. But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member). That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Texas Rangers (3 Yrs./$36 Million)
6. Victor Martinez (Catcher/First Base)
Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets
Matt Klaasen of Beyond the Box Score (among other things) recently released his Catcher Defense Rankings for the 2010 season. To nobody's great surprise, V-Mart ranked near the bottom (#114 of 120, to be exact). Being "better than Jorge Posada" may not be enough for Martinez's next employer, but V-Mart's value on the free agent market is much higher when tied to his ability to produce well above the standards for backstops. To be fair, there are some things that Klassen's rankings cannot account for. By all reports, V-Mart is a great field general, clubhouse leader, and game-caller. Those things were certainly enough to keep marquee hitters like Posada, Jason Varitek, and Gary Carter behind the plate long after they stopped excelling at blocking balls and controlling the running game. That said, I think it's in the best interests of V-Mart's next team to have a contingency plan, so I expect he won't be headed anywhere that has a long-range commitment at 1B and/or DH.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Detroit Tigers (4 Yrs./$50 Million)
7. Aubrey Huff (First Base/Outfield)
Top Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves
I'm a serious Huff fan. I even went so far as to make his case for NL MVP this year. But even I have to be a little wary of a 34-year-old with a history of back and knee injuries coming off a career year. Huff looked fantastic in 2010. He came to camp in great shape and showed no ill effects following his derailed '09 campaign. He even played better than average defense at multiple positions and stole seven bases, the second highest total of his career. Huff, who, to be honest, has been perennially underpaid, will cite these accomplishments and his playoff heroics while lobbying for the biggest contract of his career. (His 3 Yr./$20 Million contract with Baltimore wasn't exactly a megadeal.) So long as the buyer doesn't go much beyond that, I can't fault them. The potential reward well outweighs the risk.
Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (3 Yrs./$25 Million)
8. Paul Konerko (First Base)
Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
Um...ditto?
Like Huff, Konerko is coming off the best year in his long, very solid career, the last dozen seasons of which have been spent in Chicago. He's a year older than Huff and has made about $50 Million more over the course of his career so far. I see little reason for him to look for a change of scenery and the White Sox don't exactly have a stable of young sluggers waiting in the wings. Konerko may even give the ChiSox a moderate hometown discount, especially if they're willing to work in some incentives and/or mutual option years.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$30 Million + mutual option)
9. Carl Pavano (Starting Pitcher)
Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position. I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call. All have substantial risk with moderate upside. Four things are working against all these guys. 1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters. 2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.). 3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations. 4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.
Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.
Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)
Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position. I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call. All have substantial risk with moderate upside. Four things are working against all these guys. 1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters. 2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.). 3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations. 4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.
Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.
Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)
10. Jorge de la Rosa (Starting Pitcher)
Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners
Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter. It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him. His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady. Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field. One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.
On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time. He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09. He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season. Maybe he never will. If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September. If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011. In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.
Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...
Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners
Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter. It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him. His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady. Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field. One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.
On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time. He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09. He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season. Maybe he never will. If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September. If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011. In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.
Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.
Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...
Saturday, October 23, 2010
BBA Ballot: Walter Johnson Award
It was "The Year of the Pitcher" after all, so it should come as no surprise that this was easily the most difficult ballot to construct. Not so much at the top, since each league featured a pitcher who was at least a notch or two above the rest of the competition, but the rest of the ballot was a real struggle. In both leagues, there were at least a dozen players who I thought well worthy of consideration, but eventually, this is what I came up with.
American League:
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)
5. Jered Weaver (Angels)
For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar. He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate. He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop. Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."
4. David Price (Rays)
By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot. And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified. The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one. What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9). Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers. Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates. However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1). He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws. At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.
2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)
This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run. Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay. I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record. For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering). Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay. Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."
1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August. Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award. But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game. He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver. It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.
National League:
Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)
5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide. However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August. That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1). Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.
3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot. The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:
Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP
Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there." I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc. If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently. For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them. No easy feat.
American League:
Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)
5. Jered Weaver (Angels)
For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar. He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate. He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop. Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."
4. David Price (Rays)
By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot. And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified. The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one. What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9). Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers. Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates. However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1). He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws. At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.
2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)
This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run. Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay. I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record. For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering). Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay. Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."
1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August. Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award. But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game. He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver. It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.
National League:
Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)
5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide. However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August. That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1). Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.
3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot. The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:
Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP
Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there." I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.
1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc. If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently. For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them. No easy feat.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Hey, New York, Who's Your Daddy?
As I sat, familiarly flabbergasted, amidst a bar full of equally frustrated strangers, and watched the Yankees deliver a barrage of singles, piling up runs at a tortuously slow pace, as Ron Washington tried pitcher after pitcher in an effort to tourniquet the ridiculous trickle of scoring, I recognized that, despite the fact that C. J. Wilson had absolutely stymied the most infamous lineup in baseball for seven innings and the Rangers had chased New York's only dominant pitcher in four innings, the series might well be over by the end of Game One. Even if you attempt to adhere to that Curt Schilling credo, that Mystique and Aura are just dancers at a nightclub, you cannot deny that the Yankees have a habit of getting in their opponents heads. For ages, of course, it was that way with the Red Sox (if you haven't already, hurry over to iTunes and watch ESPN's Four Days In October documentary). More recently, it's been that way with the Twins. And, now, I feared, they had the Rangers on their heels, ever waiting for New York to again assert their superiority by doing something truly improbable (like scoring five runs in an inning, off one of the best bullpens in baseball, without hitting an homer, indeed, with the help of only one extra-base hit). If the Yankees had successfully quelled the Rangers aggressive, can-do spirit, this series would be over in five.
But that didn't happen.
Instead, Texas walked away from the game with the kind of impression which would make any sabermetrician proud: "They got lucky." In baseball, no matter how good you are, the stringing together of seven consecutive baserunners is, to a significant degree, a matter of luck. Brett Gardner reached on a grounder which would be an out, even with his speed, at least 80% of the time. Jeter and A-Rod both hit the ball hard, but again, on the ground, and found that narrow, dangerous gap just inside the third base line. Thames hit was a broken-bat dying quail. If that bat stays whole, it's probably a line drive right at the left-fielder. Certainly, there's nothing wrong with these kinds of hits and the Yankees made their luck possible by working counts and, in most cases, making fairly solid contact, but even they would tell you, they got some fortuitous breaks. That night, when their inclination must've been to throw in the towel and, in the words of Pedro Martinez, call the Yankees their Daddy, Ron Washington and the Rangers instead observed that if they played hundred more games in which they entered the eighth with a five run lead, they'd probably win 95 of them.
On the bright side, they had hammered the Yankees only top-flight starting pitcher, C. C. Sabathia, and the Yankees had struggled against their second-best southpaw, C. J. Wilson. When Colby Lewis went to work on the Yankees the next afternoon and his teammates again battered the New York starter, this time Phil Hughes, you could see several Rangers (most noticeably, Elvis Andrus) smirking in the seventh and eighth innings, as if to say, "If you're so good, why don't do it again?" Facing several of the same pitchers they had chased less than 24 hours earlier, New York managed just one hit off the Rangers bullpen Sunday. On Monday night, they got another taste of Rangers best southpaw, Cliff Lee, who, in the last two postseasons, has thusfar struck out 26 Yankees while allowing only 19 baserunners, making it clear that the only solution New York has for former Cleveland Indians lefties is to pay them $150 Million.
Certainly, the ALCS is far from over, but thankfully, the Rangers were immune to the massive momentum shift that could've followed their heartbreaking loss in Game One. At this point, based on the pitching performances of the first three games and the fact that, setting aside that incredible eighth, the Yankees have scored only three runs to the Rangers twenty, one cannot see how the Yankees are favored in any of the next four games. Tommy Hunter v. A. J. Burnett has the potential to be the first slugfest of the 2010 playoffs, which could go either way. Sabathia will likely bounce back in Game Five, on normal rest, but there's no reason to believe New York's lineup will have any better answer for C. J. Wilson. Same can be said for Colby Lewis in Game Six. Most importantly, perhaps, Texas needs only one of the next three to assure that Cliff Lee gets back to the mound for Game Seven.
If anybody has gotten inside anybody else's head this postseason, it's Cliff Lee. In fact, he's been inside the Yankees heads since last October. In the clubhouse and on New York talk radio, Cliff Lee is discussed in hushed tones, like a marauding gunslinger. That's why Brian Cashman pursued him with such fervor at the trade deadline, as much to keep him off another playoff team as to put him on theirs. As he hung golden sombreros on Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames Monday night (and added a pair apiece for Posada, Granderson, and Teixeira), you could see by their expressions that this was a recurring nightmare come true.
If the ALCS goes to Game Seven, Rangers fans have every right to chant "Who's Your Daddy?" throughout the top half of every inning.
But that didn't happen.
Instead, Texas walked away from the game with the kind of impression which would make any sabermetrician proud: "They got lucky." In baseball, no matter how good you are, the stringing together of seven consecutive baserunners is, to a significant degree, a matter of luck. Brett Gardner reached on a grounder which would be an out, even with his speed, at least 80% of the time. Jeter and A-Rod both hit the ball hard, but again, on the ground, and found that narrow, dangerous gap just inside the third base line. Thames hit was a broken-bat dying quail. If that bat stays whole, it's probably a line drive right at the left-fielder. Certainly, there's nothing wrong with these kinds of hits and the Yankees made their luck possible by working counts and, in most cases, making fairly solid contact, but even they would tell you, they got some fortuitous breaks. That night, when their inclination must've been to throw in the towel and, in the words of Pedro Martinez, call the Yankees their Daddy, Ron Washington and the Rangers instead observed that if they played hundred more games in which they entered the eighth with a five run lead, they'd probably win 95 of them.
On the bright side, they had hammered the Yankees only top-flight starting pitcher, C. C. Sabathia, and the Yankees had struggled against their second-best southpaw, C. J. Wilson. When Colby Lewis went to work on the Yankees the next afternoon and his teammates again battered the New York starter, this time Phil Hughes, you could see several Rangers (most noticeably, Elvis Andrus) smirking in the seventh and eighth innings, as if to say, "If you're so good, why don't do it again?" Facing several of the same pitchers they had chased less than 24 hours earlier, New York managed just one hit off the Rangers bullpen Sunday. On Monday night, they got another taste of Rangers best southpaw, Cliff Lee, who, in the last two postseasons, has thusfar struck out 26 Yankees while allowing only 19 baserunners, making it clear that the only solution New York has for former Cleveland Indians lefties is to pay them $150 Million.
Certainly, the ALCS is far from over, but thankfully, the Rangers were immune to the massive momentum shift that could've followed their heartbreaking loss in Game One. At this point, based on the pitching performances of the first three games and the fact that, setting aside that incredible eighth, the Yankees have scored only three runs to the Rangers twenty, one cannot see how the Yankees are favored in any of the next four games. Tommy Hunter v. A. J. Burnett has the potential to be the first slugfest of the 2010 playoffs, which could go either way. Sabathia will likely bounce back in Game Five, on normal rest, but there's no reason to believe New York's lineup will have any better answer for C. J. Wilson. Same can be said for Colby Lewis in Game Six. Most importantly, perhaps, Texas needs only one of the next three to assure that Cliff Lee gets back to the mound for Game Seven.
If anybody has gotten inside anybody else's head this postseason, it's Cliff Lee. In fact, he's been inside the Yankees heads since last October. In the clubhouse and on New York talk radio, Cliff Lee is discussed in hushed tones, like a marauding gunslinger. That's why Brian Cashman pursued him with such fervor at the trade deadline, as much to keep him off another playoff team as to put him on theirs. As he hung golden sombreros on Derek Jeter and Marcus Thames Monday night (and added a pair apiece for Posada, Granderson, and Teixeira), you could see by their expressions that this was a recurring nightmare come true.
If the ALCS goes to Game Seven, Rangers fans have every right to chant "Who's Your Daddy?" throughout the top half of every inning.
Friday, October 15, 2010
A-Roid Bankrupted The Rangers, Now Is The Time For Vengeance (ALCS Preview)
Expanding upon the superlative "Narrative Likability" grade I gave the Rangers prior to the ALDS, let's look at three reasons why the Rangers deserve to beat the Yankees:
3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+." He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays. The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.
2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers. New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams. In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season. The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million. A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.
1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year. That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004! You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar. We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.
Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:
3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason. In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team. They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average. The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR). I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS. The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average. In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks. If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.
2.) In the post-PED era, speed kills. In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season. The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%). You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.
1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts. For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games. If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape. Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA. And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff. C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia. Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:
Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP
Was Sabathia really a better pitcher? If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series. So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.
3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+." He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays. The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.
2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers. New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams. In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season. The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million. A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.
1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year. That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004! You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar. We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.
Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:
3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason. In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team. They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average. The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR). I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS. The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average. In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks. If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.
2.) In the post-PED era, speed kills. In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season. The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%). You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.
1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts. For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games. If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape. Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA. And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff. C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia. Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:
Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP
Was Sabathia really a better pitcher? If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series. So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.
Monday, October 04, 2010
My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Rangers v. Rays Is Better Than You Think ('10 Division Series Preview)
On the one hand, I will miss the drama of the play-in game. Such games have provided arguably the finest competition of the season in each of the past two Octobers. However, wins from the Braves and Giants on Sunday eliminated the cinderella Padres, and in so doing, assured the best possible matchups in the NLDS.
Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team. With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in. So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...
I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen. Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...
ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League. As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.
Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge. For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:
As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best. Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half. Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night. What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework. Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October. If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.
On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring. However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road. Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.
Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B. All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start. However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7. As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL. This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control. Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.
The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.
I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games. Both teams possess balanced attacks. They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power. In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.
Texas in 5.
ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means. Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.
This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October. The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter). They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York. And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.
Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009. They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346). They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen. They have an atrocious infield defense. They have struggled to hit southpaws. In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad. Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.
An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs. The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.
In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory. Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time. Last year they went 4-for-4. In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces. If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.
Twins in 4.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL. They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year). There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September. The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby. And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October. They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.
With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath. That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00. I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite. They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park. It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday. Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.
Phillies in 3.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants
On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams. They've got nearly identical records. They both clinched on the last day of the season. They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs. Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups. They both played significantly better at home.
Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched. These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions. The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs. Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season. In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record. Their pitching also faltered. While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.
The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September. Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell. And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.
By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts. The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings. Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings. Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.
Giants in 4.
Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team. With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in. So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...
I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen. Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...
ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays
By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League. As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.
Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge. For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:
| Texas: | Tampa: | ||
| Cliff Lee | 7.0 | David Price | 4.3 |
| C. J. Wilson | 4.4 | Matt Garza | 2.0 |
| Colby Lewis | 4.4 | Wade Davis | 0.9 |
| Tommy Hunter | 0.7 | James Shields | 2.2 |
As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best. Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half. Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night. What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework. Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October. If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.
On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring. However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road. Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.
Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B. All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start. However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7. As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL. This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control. Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB. This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.
The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.
I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games. Both teams possess balanced attacks. They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power. In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.
Texas in 5.
ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means. Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.
This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October. The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter). They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York. And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.
Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009. They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346). They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen. They have an atrocious infield defense. They have struggled to hit southpaws. In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad. Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.
An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs. The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.
In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory. Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time. Last year they went 4-for-4. In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces. If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.
Twins in 4.
NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL. They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year). There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September. The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested. They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby. And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October. They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.
With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath. That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00. I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite. They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park. It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday. Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.
Phillies in 3.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants
On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams. They've got nearly identical records. They both clinched on the last day of the season. They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs. Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups. They both played significantly better at home.
Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched. These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions. The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs. Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season. In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record. Their pitching also faltered. While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.
The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September. Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell. And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.
By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts. The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings. Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings. Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.
Giants in 4.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Texas Rangers
If it hasn't been apparent in my treatments of the Twins and the Yankees, let me be clear, Narrative Likability Factor does not portend to statistical objectivity. If you've been following this blog throughout the season, than you're probably already aware, I'm not impartial at all when it comes to the 2010 Rangers. I've never been a Texas fan before, and I may never be again, but this particular combination of players, coaches, and front office administrators won me over instantaneously, and they will hold my rooting interest for as long as they can stay alive this October. This is my attempt to convince you that you, too, should throw in your lot with the most soulful team in baseball:
- Performance Impairing Drugs: Just weeks before the season began, the Rangers had to deal with reports that their manager, Ron Washington, had tested positive for cocaine the previous year. Washington volunteered to resign, but Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the rest of the Ranger brass stood behind their skipper and appeared thoroughly nonplussed when asked to comment on the reports. The underlying message was clear: so long as it didn't affect his ability to do his job, what Ron Washington does on his own time is his business. This team has improved its record every year since Washington took the reigns and are now headed for their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
- The Painted Man: Washington is, of course, not the only Ranger to have a very public struggle with drug abuse. Josh Hamilton nearly lost his career to his addiction. The '99 #1 pick washed out of professional baseball from 2003 until 2006. He struggled to make his way back, his every supposed relapse the subject of national speculation, and, with a body ravaged by years of systematic poisoning, he's struggled to stay on the field. When healthy, however, he has proven himself to be among the superlative talents in the game. And for somebody with such gifts to have been humbled as Hamilton has, makes him all that much easier to root for. The Hamilton story may be somewhat old news now, as the climax may still be his performance at the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium, but we can be certain that will change if he can lead the Rangers to their first ever World Series.
- They Could Really Use Those Postseason Gates: The Rangers entered into this season on the verge of bankruptcy and, after a prolonged court battle, were finally put up for auction just over a month ago. The good news has been that Nolan Ryan, the team president since 2008 and now minority owner, has been a consistent presence throughout, but it seems safe to say that the Rangers would be the first MLB franchise to go bust and life a trophy in the same season.
- Big Daddy: Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players of his generation and is almost certainly headed for the Hall of Fame. But like recent Hall of Fame inductee, Andre Dawson, Vlad has spent much of his thirties hampered by knee and back injuries which likely result from years of playing on the rockhard Astroturf in Montreal. Vladdy was the driving force in the Angels lineup from '04-'07, winning an MVP, leading his team to the playoffs three times, and hitting .327 with an average of 33 HR and 119 RBI every season. But, in '08 and '09, his production fell off slightly as he was limited by injuries and often forced into the DH role. The Angels allowed Vlad to walk away this past offseason, to their divisional rival no less, for less money than they gave Hideki Matsui, about half the money they gave Bobby Abreu, and less than a third of what they're paying Torii Hunter. Guerrero responded by once again hitting like an MVP candidate, with a .301 average, 28 HR, and 111 RBI. He's headed to the playoffs, his former team is staying home.
- AAAA: Nelson Cruz was traded three times before his 25th birthday. When he still hadn't become a major-league regular at age 28, many scouts believed he was one of those "AAAA players," able to dominate throughout the minors, but unable to hack it in the Show. Over the last two seasons, however, Cruz has turned into one of the most awesome power-hitters in the American League. He has struggled to remain healthy, but when he's in the Rangers lineup he's been good for a .544 SLG, while also hitting at a solid clip (.282) and stealing bases (36 in 44 attempts).
- The Maddux-Ryan Effect: For most of the last decade, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been considered one of the most homer-friendly environs in the major leagues and, as a result, the Rangers have struggled to attract free agent pitchers and have consistently compiled some of the worst team ERAs in professional baseball history. That is, until recently. Since Nolan Ryan joined the front office and Mike Maddux became the Rangers pitching coach, the Rangers have, like the Rockies before them, refused to see their ballpark as a crutch. Much has been made of the Ryan's very public statements about starting pitcher endurance, but that has been only one minor aspect of the Texas pitching revolution. Yes, this season the Rangers have three pitchers with 190+ innings for the first time since 1998. They are also throwing more strikes and inducing more groundballs, thus leading to more quality innings. The biggest piece of the Maddux-Ryan plan, however, may be conditioning pitchers who are without ego. The new Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is one of the most unflappable, workaday superstars in the game, in part because the game humbled him in spectacular fashion back in 2007, when, after averaging 15 wins and 200 innings for three straight seasons, he found himself mired in such a slump that the Indians optioned him back to the minor leagues and then left him off their postseason roster. Colby Lewis is a former first-round pick who struggled so mightily in the majors that he spent the last two years pitching in the Japan League. These are pitchers who've faced adversity before, and they don't flinch when a flyball that would be caught just about anywhere else lands in the sixteenth row of the Arlington bleachers.
- They're Due: There are thirty MLB franchises. Only three of them have never been to the World Series, and of those three - Seattle, Texas, & Washington - the Rangers are the oldest, having joined the league in 1961. Worse yet, the Rangers are the only MLB franchise that has never even advanced as far as their League Championship Series. They were eliminated in the ALDS in all three postseason appearances ('96, '98, '99). Sure, teams like the Cubs and Indians have waited longer than the Rangers for a championship, but at least they've got a few dingy old depression-era banners to hang in their rafters. Texas got nothing. Nada. So they're due.
Foremost because of that final point, the Rangers are loaded with underdog credentials. They have the lowest payroll of any of the AL playoff teams and the only NL contender that's beneath them is the Padres. They will probably have the weakest record of any of the AL playoff teams and they're coming out of arguably the weakest division, so they have been largely an afterthought in most of the mainstream media discussions of potential ALCS matchups. Washington is the only one of the playoff-bound managers in the AL who has no previous postseason experience (Bud Black is the only such manager in the NL). With the exception of Lee (and Rich Harden, in the unlikely event he makes the roster), the Rangers don't have a single starting pitcher who's experienced the postseason, and Darren Oliver is the only such player in their bullpen. All this, combined with nagging injuries, especially to Hamilton, Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, could combine to make the Texas squad a bit tight and easy pickings for one of the AL East juggernauts (probably the Rays). Or, they could be a team of destiny and the first first-time champions since the Angels in 2002.
Narrative Likability: A+
Monday, July 26, 2010
A Karmic Swindle
It's been a busy summer for me, so posting has been infrequent, and it will probably continue to be sporadic through the next couple months. I did, however, want to weigh in on some of the deadline drama.
Most recently, Dan Haren joined the Angels in what will undoubtedly be the most flabbergasting trade of the season. The D-Backs interim GM traded away Haren for a handful of borderline talents. Joe Saunders is a proven major-league pitcher of the back-of-the-rotation variety who is poorly suited to Arizona's home ballpark. Rafael Rodriguez is a young, fairly potent middle reliever with a low strikeout rate, who probably won't every have closer potential. Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs are both longshots, teenagers who haven't advanced past A-ball. Skaggs was a late first-round pick in 2009, so he's a premium talent, but you don't build blockbusters around pitchers straight out of high school, a notoriously unpredictable commodity. This is a truly forgettable package to receive for one the top ten pitchers in baseball, who shill has three seasons left on his contract.
For starters, let's compare the trade to a similar one that happened just a few weeks ago, when the rival Rangers acquired Cliff Lee from Seattle. In return, they got the Rangers top prospect (heading into 2010), Justin Smoak, and a former first-rounder, Blake Beavan, who is currently pitching quite well in AA (11-6, 2.98 ERA).
I will agree that Lee is a better pitcher than Haren, but the difference is nominal. Here are their numbers over the last three seasons ('08-'10):
Dan Haren: 37-26, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 5.33 K/BB, 1.1 HR/9, 6.75 IP/GS
Cliff Lee: 45-20, 2.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 5.38 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9, 7.22 IP/GS
Like I said, Lee is clearly the better pitcher, but the difference is not huge, especially when you take into consideration that Haren pitches at Chase Field, one of the most homer-happy ballparks in the league, while Lee has spent most of the last three seasons in pitchers havens (Cleveland & Seattle). And, moreover, Haren's value is increased by the fact that he's two years younger than Lee and has three additional years left on his contract at below market value. Haren will make $12.75 Million in each of '11 and '12, then has a club option at $15.5 Million in 2013. With guys like John Lackey, A. J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe all making $15 Million or more per season in recent contracts, it's easy to assume that Haren could get well upwards of his current salary were he a free agent. When Lee goes on the market this offseason, he will almost certainly gross over $100 Million.
Yet, somehow the Mariners got more in return for three months of Lee than the D-Backs got for three years of Haren. That's just bad business. But perhaps it's what the Arizona ownership deserves for firing Josh Byrnes.
Although the D-Backs have had a rough go of it in 2010, largely due to a disastrous bullpen and an underperforming rotation, Byrnes still brought together a very solid foundation of talent. The lineup ranks 7th in the NL in scoring, despite down seasons from Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, and an injury which cost Miguel Montero most of the first half. With solid young pitchers like Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Ian Kennedy in the rotation and a fairly well stocked farm system, Arizona appeared only a year or two of development and a few deft moves away from serious contention. Instead, ownership chose to scrap the best-laid plans because they did pay immediate dividends.
Now, they've traded away their most marketable commodity for pieces which don't make them better now or in the near future. C'est la vie.
Most recently, Dan Haren joined the Angels in what will undoubtedly be the most flabbergasting trade of the season. The D-Backs interim GM traded away Haren for a handful of borderline talents. Joe Saunders is a proven major-league pitcher of the back-of-the-rotation variety who is poorly suited to Arizona's home ballpark. Rafael Rodriguez is a young, fairly potent middle reliever with a low strikeout rate, who probably won't every have closer potential. Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs are both longshots, teenagers who haven't advanced past A-ball. Skaggs was a late first-round pick in 2009, so he's a premium talent, but you don't build blockbusters around pitchers straight out of high school, a notoriously unpredictable commodity. This is a truly forgettable package to receive for one the top ten pitchers in baseball, who shill has three seasons left on his contract.
For starters, let's compare the trade to a similar one that happened just a few weeks ago, when the rival Rangers acquired Cliff Lee from Seattle. In return, they got the Rangers top prospect (heading into 2010), Justin Smoak, and a former first-rounder, Blake Beavan, who is currently pitching quite well in AA (11-6, 2.98 ERA).
I will agree that Lee is a better pitcher than Haren, but the difference is nominal. Here are their numbers over the last three seasons ('08-'10):
Dan Haren: 37-26, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 5.33 K/BB, 1.1 HR/9, 6.75 IP/GS
Cliff Lee: 45-20, 2.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 5.38 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9, 7.22 IP/GS
Like I said, Lee is clearly the better pitcher, but the difference is not huge, especially when you take into consideration that Haren pitches at Chase Field, one of the most homer-happy ballparks in the league, while Lee has spent most of the last three seasons in pitchers havens (Cleveland & Seattle). And, moreover, Haren's value is increased by the fact that he's two years younger than Lee and has three additional years left on his contract at below market value. Haren will make $12.75 Million in each of '11 and '12, then has a club option at $15.5 Million in 2013. With guys like John Lackey, A. J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe all making $15 Million or more per season in recent contracts, it's easy to assume that Haren could get well upwards of his current salary were he a free agent. When Lee goes on the market this offseason, he will almost certainly gross over $100 Million.
Yet, somehow the Mariners got more in return for three months of Lee than the D-Backs got for three years of Haren. That's just bad business. But perhaps it's what the Arizona ownership deserves for firing Josh Byrnes.
Although the D-Backs have had a rough go of it in 2010, largely due to a disastrous bullpen and an underperforming rotation, Byrnes still brought together a very solid foundation of talent. The lineup ranks 7th in the NL in scoring, despite down seasons from Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, and an injury which cost Miguel Montero most of the first half. With solid young pitchers like Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Ian Kennedy in the rotation and a fairly well stocked farm system, Arizona appeared only a year or two of development and a few deft moves away from serious contention. Instead, ownership chose to scrap the best-laid plans because they did pay immediate dividends.
Now, they've traded away their most marketable commodity for pieces which don't make them better now or in the near future. C'est la vie.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
21st-Century Cy
Not every year does a relatively unheralded pitcher come, as though from out of nowhere, to win his profession's most prestigious award. It has happened, however, in each of the last two seasons, and seven times in the last decade (during which, of course, twenty Cy Youngs have been awarded.)
Way back in 2002, a 24-year-old Barry Zito won 23 games in what has proved to be the best season of his career. The season prior to it he had been very good (17-8, 3.49 ERA), but certainly not superlative, and going into '02 he was still considered the #3 starter on his own team.
In 2004, Johan Santana "arrived." Although his arm had been gaining him notoriety for a couple years, he had spent most of his career prior to '04 in the bullpen. That year, however, he made 34 starts, won 20 of them, and led the league in strikeouts (265) and ERA (2.61).
The very next year, a 30-year-old Chris Carpenter, after seven seasons floundering with the Blue Jays and struggling with injuries and control, suddenly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his second year under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in St. Louis.
There was another first-time Cy Young vote-getter in 2006, when Brandon Webb won the award with his 16 wins and 3.10 ERA.
And, most recently, as you will remember, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke finished their somewhat unlikely ascents to the top of the American League, and Tim Lincecum won the NL version of the award in his first full season in the majors in '08.
So, who's going to be the next unexpected Cy? Here are some criteria for making the prediction. With the exception of Cliff Lee, none of the pitchers discussed above had placed in the Cy Young voting prior to the year they won it, but all were coming off pretty solid seasons, in which they won at least 12 games and had an ERA lower than 3.80 (Lincecum didn't get enough starts to meet this criteria in his rookie year, but in all likelihood he would've easily matched it).
Although Lee had a notoriously bad run in '06 and '07, he had previously logged three seasons with 14 or more wins and finished as high as fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005. So, what I'm looking for primarily, is a player who won 12-15 games in '09 and posted an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with some positive trends in his other numbers.
I'm also looking for somebody in their mid-twenties who was, at one point or another, even if it was five or six years ago, considered a top prospect. Four of my seven Cys were first-round picks and Santana certainly would have been (he signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela). Five won the award for the first time between the ages of 24 and 27, while Lee won it at 29 and Carpenter was 30. With those factors in mind, here are the top candidates:
Way back in 2002, a 24-year-old Barry Zito won 23 games in what has proved to be the best season of his career. The season prior to it he had been very good (17-8, 3.49 ERA), but certainly not superlative, and going into '02 he was still considered the #3 starter on his own team.
In 2004, Johan Santana "arrived." Although his arm had been gaining him notoriety for a couple years, he had spent most of his career prior to '04 in the bullpen. That year, however, he made 34 starts, won 20 of them, and led the league in strikeouts (265) and ERA (2.61).
The very next year, a 30-year-old Chris Carpenter, after seven seasons floundering with the Blue Jays and struggling with injuries and control, suddenly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his second year under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in St. Louis.
There was another first-time Cy Young vote-getter in 2006, when Brandon Webb won the award with his 16 wins and 3.10 ERA.
And, most recently, as you will remember, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke finished their somewhat unlikely ascents to the top of the American League, and Tim Lincecum won the NL version of the award in his first full season in the majors in '08.
So, who's going to be the next unexpected Cy? Here are some criteria for making the prediction. With the exception of Cliff Lee, none of the pitchers discussed above had placed in the Cy Young voting prior to the year they won it, but all were coming off pretty solid seasons, in which they won at least 12 games and had an ERA lower than 3.80 (Lincecum didn't get enough starts to meet this criteria in his rookie year, but in all likelihood he would've easily matched it).
Although Lee had a notoriously bad run in '06 and '07, he had previously logged three seasons with 14 or more wins and finished as high as fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005. So, what I'm looking for primarily, is a player who won 12-15 games in '09 and posted an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with some positive trends in his other numbers.
I'm also looking for somebody in their mid-twenties who was, at one point or another, even if it was five or six years ago, considered a top prospect. Four of my seven Cys were first-round picks and Santana certainly would have been (he signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela). Five won the award for the first time between the ages of 24 and 27, while Lee won it at 29 and Carpenter was 30. With those factors in mind, here are the top candidates:
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Offseason Prospectus #29: The Philadelphia Phillies
They've won two straight NL pennants. They have easily the most lethal lineup in the National League and among the best in all of baseball. Unwilling to rest on their laurels after losing to the Yankees in the '09 World Series, management traded for and signed the game's best starting pitcher and another All-Star caliber infielder. You would think that Phillies fans wouldn't have much to complain about.
But, of course, the most notoriously surly fan base in all of sports has found something to harp on this winter: Cliff Lee. And, honestly, as envious as I am of the team they do have, I can't blame them. After Philadelphia acquired Roy Halladay this offseason, they immediately sent Lee to Seattle for a trio of decent prospects. Their GM, Ruben Amaro, cited the need to restock the farm system, so that the team would remain competitive throughout the coming decade. However, the Philly faithful had grown quite attached to Lee as he was their workhorse throughout the last three months of the season, including the playoffs, and they had to ask: Why not mortgage the future, if it gives us a better chance at bringing home a couple more rings? With Lee and Halladay at the top, the Phillies would be balancing the NL's best lineup with the NL's best rotation, and have a tandem of former AL Cy Youngs which could intimidate even the megaliths in New York and Boston in a short series.
One of the dangers of the "Moneyball era," in which teams are increasingly obsessed with youth and making wise long-term investments, is that teams are afraid to cash in all their chips and "go for it," as such, they may miss out on dynastic opportunities. The Phillies have a team that's built to win now, with a core signed through at least the 2011 season. It is very rare in this era to put together a team which can reach baseball's pinnacle several years running. 2009 was the first time in eight seasons that a team repeated as its league's champion. The Yankees are the only team in the Wild Card era to make it three or more, and only two franchises - New York and Oakland - have accomplished that feat in the integration era (since '47). Returning to and especially winning another World Series in 2010 would be legacy-making moment for Philadelphia, and you can understand why fans might want that to take precedent over the future exploits of Phillippe Aumont.
But, of course, the most notoriously surly fan base in all of sports has found something to harp on this winter: Cliff Lee. And, honestly, as envious as I am of the team they do have, I can't blame them. After Philadelphia acquired Roy Halladay this offseason, they immediately sent Lee to Seattle for a trio of decent prospects. Their GM, Ruben Amaro, cited the need to restock the farm system, so that the team would remain competitive throughout the coming decade. However, the Philly faithful had grown quite attached to Lee as he was their workhorse throughout the last three months of the season, including the playoffs, and they had to ask: Why not mortgage the future, if it gives us a better chance at bringing home a couple more rings? With Lee and Halladay at the top, the Phillies would be balancing the NL's best lineup with the NL's best rotation, and have a tandem of former AL Cy Youngs which could intimidate even the megaliths in New York and Boston in a short series.
One of the dangers of the "Moneyball era," in which teams are increasingly obsessed with youth and making wise long-term investments, is that teams are afraid to cash in all their chips and "go for it," as such, they may miss out on dynastic opportunities. The Phillies have a team that's built to win now, with a core signed through at least the 2011 season. It is very rare in this era to put together a team which can reach baseball's pinnacle several years running. 2009 was the first time in eight seasons that a team repeated as its league's champion. The Yankees are the only team in the Wild Card era to make it three or more, and only two franchises - New York and Oakland - have accomplished that feat in the integration era (since '47). Returning to and especially winning another World Series in 2010 would be legacy-making moment for Philadelphia, and you can understand why fans might want that to take precedent over the future exploits of Phillippe Aumont.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Zduriencik Makes a Midseason Move...in February
The Seattle Mariners have already been the toast of the 2009-2010 offseason. Perhaps no two trades have been more unanimously lauded than GM Jack Zduriencik's acquisitions of Cliff Lee from Philadelphia (for three minor leaguers, none of which were big-name prospects) and Milton Bradley from the Cubs (for 250 pounds of eminently releasable pitcher, known as Carlos Silva). Zduriencik also made a big splash by signing one of this year's most desirable free agents, Chone Figgins, to a four-year deal.
Those moves, all involving noteworthy players and all accomplished before Christmas, already had many anticipating Seattle making a serious run at the AL West crown. It should be noted, however, that Zduriencik has not been resting on his laurels in the last six weeks, and it may be his recent thrifty additions to the Mariners depth chart which make the eventual difference in what seems sure to be a hard-fought race with both the Angels and Rangers.
In the last month, Zduriencik has made a flurry of interesting speculative signings, many of which seem designed to increase the potential options at the positions which remain somewhat in flux, namely first base, left field, and designated hitter. Granted, the Mariners may have been fine sticking with Bradley, Ken Griffey Jr., and two of their top prospects, Michael Saunders and Mike Carp, but with the injury history of the two veterans and, of course, the general inconsistency of rookies, it seems wise to have a Plan B. Zduriencik has given his manager, Don Wakamatsu, plans C and D as well.
Those moves, all involving noteworthy players and all accomplished before Christmas, already had many anticipating Seattle making a serious run at the AL West crown. It should be noted, however, that Zduriencik has not been resting on his laurels in the last six weeks, and it may be his recent thrifty additions to the Mariners depth chart which make the eventual difference in what seems sure to be a hard-fought race with both the Angels and Rangers.
In the last month, Zduriencik has made a flurry of interesting speculative signings, many of which seem designed to increase the potential options at the positions which remain somewhat in flux, namely first base, left field, and designated hitter. Granted, the Mariners may have been fine sticking with Bradley, Ken Griffey Jr., and two of their top prospects, Michael Saunders and Mike Carp, but with the injury history of the two veterans and, of course, the general inconsistency of rookies, it seems wise to have a Plan B. Zduriencik has given his manager, Don Wakamatsu, plans C and D as well.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
The Halladay Deal
Although the major media outlets have been treating it in much the same way they dealt with the three-team Granderson/Jackson /Scherzer trade last week, the Halladay/Lee/"Bonus Babies" deal is actually three completely independent trades:
#1 - RHSP Roy Halladay (33) goes from Toronto to Philadelphia for RHSP Kyle Drabek (22), OF Michael Taylor (24), & C Travis d'Arnaud (21)
#2 - LHSP Cliff Lee (31) goes from Philadelphia to Seattle for RHRP Phillippe Aumont (21), OF Tyson Gillies (21), & RHSP Juan Ramirez (21)
#3 - OF Michael Taylor (24) goes from Toronto to Oakland for 3B Brett Wallace (23)
The Aces:
On the surface it may be unclear why Philadelphia would want to part ways with Cliff Lee after he was so invaluable to their 2009 World Series run. The difference between Lee and Halladay isn't that huge, especially in the couple seasons. Both are still in their early 30s. Both have Cy Youngs. And both should probably be regarded as among the top half dozen starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Here are their basic lines from 2004-2009:
Lee: 87-48 (.644), 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.80 K/BB, 1134 IP, 13 CG, 21.9 WAR
Halladay: 89-45 (.664), 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.17 K/BB, 1205 IP, 35 CG, 33.8 WAR
Clearly Halladay has been better, but the difference is not extraordinary, especially when you take out the one awful year Lee had (5-8, 6.29) in 2007. The major difference between them at this point in their careers is not their current production or how much they are going to be worth for the next two or three seasons, but rather what they've made thusfar in their careers.
Halladay's first full big-league season was 1999, when he was just 22-years-old, and his first big contract was signed prior to the 2004 season, the year after he won the Cy Young. All told, not including the contract extension Philadelphia is negotiating presently, Doc Halladay has already made over $90,000,000 as a professional baseball player.
Cliff Lee, on the other hand, didn't pitch he first full season in the bigs until he was 25 (in 2004). In 2006 he signed an extension which covered his arbitration years plus a club option for 2010. In total, by the time he hits the free agent market next November, Cliff Lee, despite being only two years younger than Halladay, will have made only $20,000,000, less than a quarter of the good doctor's rake. Lee has, in fact, been one of the best deals in all of baseball over the last five years, so he's going to be looking to make up some of the difference next winter, probably by signing a contract for at least five years and $100,000,000.
Having already made his fortune, Halladay seems most concerned with getting himself hooked to a franchise that has a high likelihood of playing playoff baseball consistently through what remains of his prime. The Phillies are, most certainly, that kind of franchise. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Raul Ibanez, and Placido Polanco are all under Philadelphia's control through at least the 2011 season, so the core of the reigning two-time NL Champs will have at least two more shots at the championship. According to the reports so far, Halladay is preparing to sign a deal for three years and around $60,000,000, with potential options or incentives for more. Although it is still, clearly, a ton of money, it gives the Phillies slightly more flexibility down the road than they would've had if they resigned Lee, especially since next winter they will also be negotiating with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton, and after 2011 there will be pressure to resign Howard and Hamels.
As I discussed in last week's offseason prospectus, the Mariners have as much financial flexibility as any team at the present moment. While the Phillies have over $120,000,000 in payroll obligations for 2010, the Mariners have only about $60,000,000, despite the fact that Mariners have generally spent $10-15 Million more per season than the Phillies in the recent past. So, if they choose, the Mariners can probably afford to make a very competitive offer for Lee either during the course of 2010 or even after he becomes a free agent next winter, and still have money left over to resign Felix Hernandez and go after a middle-of-the-order hitter.
The Young Arms:
Philadelphia will sending its best pitching prospect to Toronto, but will receive two of Seattle's best, although neither is really on the level with Kyle Drabek. At 21 years of age, Drabek pitched 158 minor league innings in '09 and compiled a 12-3 record, a 3.19 ERA, and 150 strikeouts. Although he may not start 2010 in the Blue Jays rotation, he will almost certainly be there by the end of the year. Phillippe Aumont is a year younger than Drabek and has yet to advance past high A. He's pitched well (3.29 ERA, 9.2 K/9 in 107 IP), but clearly not as well as Drabek. More importantly, he's a reliever. And although he is quite possibly good enough to be groomed as Brad Lidge's successor, relievers, even good ones, aren't nearly as valuable as starters. Juan Ramirez, also just 21-years-old, is currently a starter, but probably not for long. Thusfar he hasn't been very good. At high A in '09 he managed just a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. There is still, clearly, time for him to mature, but at the moment, he seems destined to be coverted to a bullpen role.
The Outfielders:
From the Phillies perspective, they are essentially exchanging Michael Taylor for Tyson Gillies. But besides being outfielders and patient hitters, these are not very similar players. For starters, Taylor is older and has already proved his ability to hit in the high minors. In '09, between AA and AAA, he hit .320 with 20 HR, 84 RBI, and a 944 OPS. He's got power, clearly, and some speed as well, swiping 21 bases in 26 attempts, but is corner outfielder. In Oakland, especially now that the Athletics have parted ways with Jack Cust, Taylor could be competing for a starting spot this spring.
Gillies, on the other hand, is probably a year or two away, which is fine for the Phillies, who have Victorino, Werth, and Ibanez for at least next season. Gillies looks like a prototypical centerfielder/leadoff hitter. He stole 44 bags at high A in 2009 and got on base at an exceptional .430 clip. He also had 18 outfield assists and 14 triples. However, so far he doesn't look to have Taylor's power stroke. Gillies hit 9 HR in '09 and had a respectable .486 SLG%, but at the same level, Taylor slugged .560 and hit 9 HR in half as many games. Whereas Taylor probably would've been a potential replacement for Werth or Ibanez, the acquisition of Gillies means that it's Victorino who is more likely to walk next winter.
The Rest:
Brett Wallace hasn't had a big-league at-bat yet, but this is the second time this year he's been involved in a high-profile trade. In July he was the key component of the deal that brought Matt Holliday to St. Louis. Wallace is a power-hitting third baseman (20 HR in '09) with decent plate discipline (.384 OBP in minors), but a pretty long left-handed stroke (116 K in '09). The Jays have clearly been coveting him for awhile. They drafted him in 2005, when he was coming out of high school, but he chose instead to go to Arizona State, where he was twice the Pac-10 Player of the Year. As a star player in college who has now had a full season of minor-league experience, Wallace is probably ready to make the jump to the show, which makes the deal a little odd for Toronto, since they just added Edwin Encarnacion this summer. This may mean that Encarnacion will be dealt or that Adam Lind is going to be testing himself in the outfield next year so that Wallace or Encarnacion can get at-bats at DH.
The Jays have accumulated quite a collection of catchers in recent weeks. A few days ago they signed John Buck after he was non-tendered by the Royals. Just prior to that they signed free agent journeymen backstops Ramon Castro (most famous for catching Mark Buerhle's perfect game in his first start with the White Sox) and Raul Chavez. The Jays already had a top catching prospect at AAA in J. P. Arencibia and now they've also added Travis d'Arnaud, who's not likely to break into the bigs before 2012. He's got a little pop (13 HR @ A), but there's not a whole lot else to say about him at this point.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Bad Umpires vs. Good Players?
I set out this morning to write an homage to Cliff Lee, but in all honesty, words fail me. There was nothing I could say which was tantamount to the apathetic look on his face when he caught Johnny Damon's pop-up in the sixth inning or the sense of inevitability which followed his nonchalant tag of Jorge Posada in the following frame. As he patted Posada on the ass, almost as though it was a second thought (which actually secured the out), he seemed to be saying, "I'm sorry. I know I've made y'all look silly on baseball's biggest stage this evening. I can't help it. You'll get 'em next time, Tiger."
There were a couple moments in the ninth when it appeared that he used the gesture of blowing on his cold hands to disguise a yawn. He was just "getting his work in," playing catch, completely immune to the anxiety-provoking aura of the World Series and the cutthroat mentality of a sold-out Yankee Stadium crowd. In the bottom of the seventh, when it was still a very close game, many Yankees fans, each of whom endured the rain and cold, and must have paid hundreds, if not thousands of dollars, for their seats, had already departed, recognizing that a two run deficit against this guy was frankly insurmountable.
Instead, I'd like to direct your attention to a column by Bill Baer at Baseball Daily Digest, responding to some fascinating excerpts published by Deadspin yesterday, from Tim Donaghy's unpublished prison confessional (Donaghy, the former NBA ref and degenerate gambler, it must be said, is not a source which inspires confidence). Baer makes the excellent point, one which has implications upon the rash of bad calls which have sparked debate this postseason (including some suggestions that the umpires have displayed big-market biases): MLB umpires do not have nearly as much power over their game as NBA referees.
Last night, when it appeared at times that Gerry Davis's strike zone for Cliff Lee was shrinking, while that for the Yankees, especially in the eighth and ninth, was expanding, it was completely without consequence. Throughout the playoffs, there have been an unusual number of "suspicious" calls, yet in almost every case they have had little or no impact on the outcome of the game and the series. And in many games their have been bad calls going in both directions. Let's face it, if Bud Selig's office was (like David Stern's according to Donaghy) endorsing certain teams in playoff series based on a quest for higher ratings (and I wouldn't put it past them), than they would've wanted Boston to beat the Angels in the ALDS and the Dodgers to beat the Phillies in the NLCS, neither of which came close to happening. No amount of favorable umpiring could've overcome the dominance displayed by Los Angeles and Philadelphia in those series. And no amount of New York favoritism could've overcome the dominance of Cliff Lee last night. In a game which resists cheating (short of Black Sox-style conspiracy), it seems unlikely that Selig, the umpires, or anybody else would risk their reputations for a desired outcome which would still be very much in question.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Mis-Lee-ding
Yesterday I heard Peter Pascarelli proclaim that Derrek Lee was "finally" heating up after he hit four homers in three games over the weekend, as the Cubs swept the Indians. The fact is, D-Lee has been hot for six weeks. He had a terrible April, but since May 1 he has been gangbusters, hitting .341 with a 1037 OPS and 10 HR in 35 games. He looks a lot like he did in 2005, when he hit .335 with 46 HR and looked like he was about to become a superstar. Maybe he would've too, if he hadn't broken his wrist in April 2006, an injury which has seemingly sapped his power ever since. Despite his slow start, Lee is on pace for 27 dingers, which would be his most since '05.
Derrek is not the only Lee who has been the victim of misconceptions about his play so far this season. If would be easy to look at Cliff Lee's record (4-6) and assume that the surprise 2008 Cy Young winner has fallen back to earth. But, actually, that's hardly the case. His 2.94 ERA is good for 7th in the American League. If you take away two particularly bad starts at the beginning of the season, the story is even better. Since April 16, Lee's ERA is 2.20, which matches Zack Greinke for the best in baseball over that span. On four occasions he's gone eight innings, allowing two earned runs or less, and still ended up with a loss or a no-decision. On Friday he left the game leading 7-3 after seven innings, but his bullpen yielded four runs in two innings (including one of those D-Lee homers) to cost him a win. Hard to fault him for such performances. He's allowed four earned runs (or more) only once in his last thirteen starts. Lee remains a legit Ace, he's just getting the "Matt Cain treatment" from the Indians offense this season.
Speaking of poor run support, I'd like to draw your attention to Ryan Dempster. Like Lee, he went from barely making the rotation to Cy Young contender in 2008, spurring talk that he might be something of a fluke. And, like both Lees, he had relatively slow start, posting a 5.40 ERA in April. However, since the beginning of May Dempster has a 3.09 ERA in ten starts, but only three victories. The Cubs have scored three runs or less in each of his last four starts. That makes it hard on a pitcher.
My point here is that too often we presume that a cold start spells doom for a season and we stop paying attention to a player's progress, especially if that player is playing for a team that is underachieving. Big Papi's resurgence is getting a lot of play or Sportscenter, but not so for the Lees, Dempster, Brandon Phillips, or the Upton brothers. Don't put too much faith in the impressions of commentators (the other night Indians broadcasters were laying into Lee who was in the midst of a 19-game hitting streak, but applauding Alfonso Soriano, who has a 471 OPS in the last month of games) who seem to suffer from severe amnesia in the weeks just before the All-Star break.
Derrek is not the only Lee who has been the victim of misconceptions about his play so far this season. If would be easy to look at Cliff Lee's record (4-6) and assume that the surprise 2008 Cy Young winner has fallen back to earth. But, actually, that's hardly the case. His 2.94 ERA is good for 7th in the American League. If you take away two particularly bad starts at the beginning of the season, the story is even better. Since April 16, Lee's ERA is 2.20, which matches Zack Greinke for the best in baseball over that span. On four occasions he's gone eight innings, allowing two earned runs or less, and still ended up with a loss or a no-decision. On Friday he left the game leading 7-3 after seven innings, but his bullpen yielded four runs in two innings (including one of those D-Lee homers) to cost him a win. Hard to fault him for such performances. He's allowed four earned runs (or more) only once in his last thirteen starts. Lee remains a legit Ace, he's just getting the "Matt Cain treatment" from the Indians offense this season.
Speaking of poor run support, I'd like to draw your attention to Ryan Dempster. Like Lee, he went from barely making the rotation to Cy Young contender in 2008, spurring talk that he might be something of a fluke. And, like both Lees, he had relatively slow start, posting a 5.40 ERA in April. However, since the beginning of May Dempster has a 3.09 ERA in ten starts, but only three victories. The Cubs have scored three runs or less in each of his last four starts. That makes it hard on a pitcher.
My point here is that too often we presume that a cold start spells doom for a season and we stop paying attention to a player's progress, especially if that player is playing for a team that is underachieving. Big Papi's resurgence is getting a lot of play or Sportscenter, but not so for the Lees, Dempster, Brandon Phillips, or the Upton brothers. Don't put too much faith in the impressions of commentators (the other night Indians broadcasters were laying into Lee who was in the midst of a 19-game hitting streak, but applauding Alfonso Soriano, who has a 471 OPS in the last month of games) who seem to suffer from severe amnesia in the weeks just before the All-Star break.
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