Irrational Derek Jeter Love/Hate vs. Scott Rolen

The Yankee Captain's underwhelming 2010 season has made the controversy surrounding his impending free agency all the more stressful for Yankee fans...and entertaining for the rest of us.

Already the negotiations have begun in the media, with the House of Steinbrenner vowing not to pay for milestones and sentimentality, and Jeter's agent, Casey Close, reminding them that the Captain's "impact cannot be overstated."  In my view, the more rounds of shenanigans the better.  But there's really only one possible outcome, right?  Who else could be interested in a 37-year-old, defensively-challenged shortstop coming off the worst season of his career and demanding at least an eight-figure salary?  Not my team (I hope).

I am, of course, an avowed Jeter-hater.  My spite correlates more or less exactly in its excess to the hyperbolic man-love that originates from the Bronx and is spews almost daily from the mouths of self-righteous Jeter-ites like Joe Morgan and Joe Buck.  If there weren't such a willful ignorance on the part of the pro-Jeter camp, denying even his most glaring flaws and suggesting he ranks not only among the elite of his era, but is somehow among the best ever, I wouldn't feel obligated to write snarling anti-Jeter rants each and every year.

Can't we be reasonable?  I, at least, am willing to try.  What I want to know is, personal preferences aside, what is Derek Jeter's actual value on the open market?  In order to establish that, we'll need to start by looking at some similar players who've tested the free agent market in the decade since Jeter signed his last contract.

For starters, there's Miguel Tejada.  He's almost exactly the same age as Jeter.  He's been reluctant to accept the fact he's no longer a "Gold Glove" shortstop.  As recently as 2009 he had a year in which he was among the league leaders in hitting (.313) as well as several other categories.  But, in 2010, his production dropped off the table, as he posted a 692 OPS, the worst since his rookie season.  Sounds familiar, right?  Like Jeter, Tejada is a free agent and you can bet, whatever suitors he has (if any), they aren't going to be discussing anything bigger than the $6 Million, one-year deal he had in 2010.

Even I will grant, however, that Derek Jeter is worth more than Miguel Tejada, and not just because of his "intangibles."  Like Tejada, Jeter possesses great bat control, the ability to hit to all fields, sporadic power, and a great knack for situational hitting.  Unlike Tejada, he also has decent speed and a more selective approach, which will help him continue to be an acceptable top-of-the-order hitter, even as some other aspect of his game deteriorate.  Also, although the difference is probably minimal, and not supported by the limited sample size from this season, Jeter is still a noticeably better shortstop than Tejada, at least a more sure-handed one.  And Jeter's athletic skills, especially his speed and his instinct for tracking flyballs, suggest that when he's ready to accept a change of position, the Yankees will have options and Jeter have a better chance of adapting.  While I don't think the comparison is as unfair as Yankee fans would like to believe, Jeter has an apparent edge over Miggy on both sides of the ball.

With few other players playing shortstop at such a late stage in their career, it is necessary to look at other positions for comparable players.  It is at this point when we come to Scott Rolen.  I have to admit, this caught me completely off guard.  On the surface, it's kind of strange comparison.  The natural assumption is that these guys are opposites.  Jeter hits for average, Rolen for power.  Jeter steals bases, Rolen drives in runs.  Jeter is an ironman, Rolen is brittle.  Jeter is gregarious, Rolen is shy.  Jeter plays a mediocre shortstop (if we're being kind), Rolen plays an exceptional third base.  Jeter is a lifelong Yankee, Rolen's already got four franchises on his resume.  

However, when you look closer, you see they've been running more or less parallel as players for nearly two decades.  Jeter is nine months older than Rolen.  Both broke in at age 21, and both won the Rookie of the Year award (Jeter in the AL in '96.  Rolen in the NL in '97.).  They've both been frequent All-Stars (Jeter 11, Rolen 6).  They've both won Gold Gloves (Jeter 4, Rolen 7).  They've both come close to the MVP, but never won it.  They both played their prime seasons with the powerhouse franchise in their league.  And, although you may not have realized it, they are both amongst the premier players of their generation.

From '97 (Rolen's rookie season, Jeter's sophomore season) to the recently completed campaign, they rank #5 and #6 in Wins Above Replacement.  Those in front of them are of impressive ilk:

1. Alex Rodriguez 93.2 (6.7 per season)

2. Barry Bonds 86.5 (7.9)

3. Albert Pujols 83.8 (8.4)

4. Chipper Jones 71.5 (5.1)

5. Derek Jeter 67.9 (4.9)

6. Scott Rolen 66.6 (4.8)

Here's how the pair stack up in some other popular metrics:

                      AVG  OPS  OPS+ WPA

Derek Jeter    .314    837    119    31.6

Scott Rolen    .284    867    124    31.1

That's a pretty remarkable similarity.  And, it should also be noted, it's a pretty remarkable accomplishment to be rated in this class.  Some of the guys who fall just behind them are notable: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guererro, Jim Thome, etc.  You may not have realized that Rolen belonged in such company.  (And I was reluctant to admit that Jeter did.)  One might be tempted to suggest that Rolen has been more valuable than Jeter over the course of his career because he's gotten to nearly the same WAR, but with less playing time (mainly due to injuries).  Jeter's WAR per 162 game is 5.18, Rolen's is 5.85.  That's a specious argument, of course, considering Rolen's shortened seasons (particularly '05 and '07) came at a severe cost to the Cardinals.

But Rolen's fragility has been somewhat exaggerated.  He's only had one season with fewer than 100 games started and he's averaged over 550 plate appearances per season during his 14-year career.  Whatever lingering damage there is to his shoulder and back, it has only cost him a few weeks over the last two seasons and certainly hasn't kept him from being productive when he's in the lineup.

In 2010, Rolen was the cleanup hitter on a team that led the National League in almost every offensive category.  He was the protection for MVP-candidate, Joey Votto, making his role an especially crucial one for the Reds.  He was a clubhouse leader and again played exceptional defense at third base (his 10.6 UZR ranked third in the NL).  He made just over $11 Million, but, according to FanGraphs, was worth over $20 Million.  Perhaps, as Matt Klaassen has said of Jeter's 2009, this was the "Last Great Season from a great player."  If so, the Reds may live to regret the $13 Million extension they gave Rolen prior to his 2010 campaign.  But, at $6.5 Million per season, Walt Jocketty has left plenty of room to get his money's worth, even assuming a relatively rapid late-30s decline.

Jeter was, again, according to FanGraphs, worth less than $10 Million in 2010 (but more than $6.5).  But, I can already hear pinstriped protestations, "The things Jeter does cannot be quantified."  Okay, let's talk about some things which can't be quantified.  

1.) Jeter is, of course, Captain Intangible, but Rolen isn't exactly a clubhouse cancer.  Walt Jocketty surprised almost everybody in 2009 when he went to great lengths to acquire the aging cornerman and then extended him only a few months later.  Jocketty and Dusty Baker clearly wanted Rolen to be the veteran presence on their young team and thusfar that gamble has paid off handsomely, with the Reds first trip to the postseason in nearly two decades.  Also, Jocketty's avid pursuit of Rolen makes a big statement about who was at fault during the falling out between the third baseman and Tony La Russa when all were with St. Louis.  Jeter and Rolen are both clearly good "chemistry" guys.

2.) Rolen still plays third base at well above par.  There is no reason to believe he'll have to change positions anytime in the near future and probably will retire still at the hot corner.  He provides exactly what you expect from his position - some power, run production, and decent average.  On the other hand, the Yankees must know Jeter is going to stop being an everyday shortstop soon, probably should've happened already.  Not only is there an awkward "Cal Ripken situation" brewing in the Bronx, but even if Jeter eventually accepts a move, it could start a chain reaction of difficult decisions.  Where will he go?  Who else will need to be moved to accommodate the switch?  How will this effect morale?  How will it effect the Yankee defense?  Will he provide enough offense to be a corner infielder, corner outfielder, or DH?  If not, how with the Yankees compensate and how much will they have to spend on that compensation?  Resigning Jeter has potential costs well beyond just the value of the contract.

3.) Although it's quite clear based on the above WAR standings that Rolen has had an extremely impressive career, he's not developed the HOF-caliber cache of Jeter (or anybody else on that list).  Nobody come to the Great American Ballpark with the hopes of catching one last glimpse of Scott Rolen.  They don't ask for their money back when Baker gives Rolen a day off.  Nobody is going to be scalping tickets in order to profit from Rolen's pursuit of 2000 hits or 500 doubles.  When Rolen can no longer produce better than the Reds other options at third base, he will no longer be their third baseman.  At that point, he will either be forced to accept a reduced role or retire.  Can the same things be said of Jeter?  If Joe Girardi decides the Captain is best suited to a super-utility role which gives him three or four starts a week, will Jeter accept it?  Will New York fans?

4.) Steinbrennerdom might say they aren't interested in "milestones," but you can be damn sure they're interested in the millions of dollars in revenue Jeter's pursuit of 3,000 hits and beyond will inevitably generate.  Those "milestones" mean ticket sales, memorabilia sales, television ratings, advertising sales, etc., etc.  Jeter deserves to be compensated accordingly.  I may not understand why he's so popular, but I don't dispute that he is, and popular players are profitable players.  However, the profit motive in this case does not necessarily correlate with the Yankees oft-stated top priority: winning.  Moreover, if the Yankees have proved anything during the last two decades, it's that winning is profitable.  In fact, putting the best team on the field, even if it doesn't include Jeter, might be the quickest and most efficient way to profit.

Jeter's contractual negotiations bring a lot of factors to the table which Rolen's frankly did not.  Even if you are compelled to believe, as I do, that they are comparable offensive players and that Rolen is the superior defensive player, you still have to give Jeter a bonus for his durability and his "brand."  I believe, that if the baseball market were truly perfect, in the Milton Friedman sense, Jeter would get paid  20-25% more than Rolen, at most.  Of course, it isn't perfect, and based on this year's performance, there's a strong likelihood that Rolen is actually underpaid, as he has been for much of his career.

If Rolen had waited until now to negotiate his extension with the Reds, he could've reasonably ended up making about what he made each of the last four seasons ($11 Million/Yr.), probably for the next two, with some incentives and some sort of option for a third.  I think this makes Buster Olney's prediction of 3 yrs./$45 Million for Jeter seem pretty reasonable, perhaps even generous...if this were a perfect market situation.    

But, as one last comparison and point of curiosity, I'd like to know how much each player has made per Win Above Replacement up to this point:

Jeter: $2,930,528 / WAR
Rolen: $1,549,450 / WAR

I think that satisfactorily dispels any notion of a perfect baseball market.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Pitching and defense may win championships in reality, but fantasy baseball pennants are all about the O." (Shortstop Preview)

In my first "Fantastic Thoughts" column of 2010, I encouraged readers to think about the way the recent trend toward defense might effect playing time and therefore change how they rate players, especially at the most challenging positions, shortstop being first among them.  That said, getting the ABs in just half the battle.  You still need to employ a player who has a prayer at the plate.  Ask anybody who has made the mistake of owning Jason Kendall or Adam Everett just how much it sucks to have 600 plate appearances from a guy that hits .240.  In what follows, because of lack of depth at the position, I will consistently endorse shortstops based on potential rather than production (except for the elite class).  Basically, I'd rather have a 22-year-old hitting .240 than a 35-year-old hitting .240.  The result may end up the same, but, as Elvis Andrus and Everth Cabrera proved in 2009, young players can make significant strides over the course of a six month season.  That .240 in April may be .280 in September, which still isn't great, but at this position, you're looking for little victories.

1. Hanley Ramirez (Marlins)
2. Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)
3. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
4. Jose Reyes (Mets)

For more that a decade now, the early rounds of fantasy drafts have been governed largely by the dispersal of the "Big Three," a rotating trio of shortstops capable of producing like iron-gloved first-baseman.  The separation between the "Big Three" and the rest of the shortstop is perhaps the largest gap at any position, thus increasing the boon of selecting one of them.  The cast over the years has included a number of recognizable hypenations: A-Rod, Han-Ram, J-Roll, No-Mar, etc.

This year, the trio becomes a quartet, as Troy Tulowitzki joins incumbents Rollins, Reyes, and Ramirez.  While Hanley obviously belongs at the top (he's likely the #2 pick in most drafts), we could bicker at length about how to rank the other three.  Tulo hasn't put up back-to-back elite performances yet.  Reyes is coming off a major injury.  Rollins had a horrific first half in '09.  I wouldn't fault you for backing any one of these guys over the others, but I will point out that J-Roll, in his "off year," still managed 100 R (#4 among SS), 77 RBI (#5), 21 HR (#3), and 31 SB (#2).  There wasn't a single shortstop who came close to matching him in all four categories and only one player in all of baseball eclipsed his production across the board (Ian Kinsler).  Assuming J-Roll's 2010 is more like his second half (801 OPS) than his first half (642 OPS), we can expect him to once again warrant selection in the top two or three rounds.

5. Derek Jeter (Yankees)
6. Miguel Tejada (Orioles) [will become eligible at 3B in most leagues]
7. Jason Bartlett (Rays)
8. Alexei Ramirez (White Sox)

Ramirez was a very popular sleeper selection prior to 2009, but he failed to build on his solid rookie season.  I'm among those who would be willing to lay double or nothing that that 25/25 season that many people were expecting is still on the way, but I can't base that prediction on much more than a gut feeling.

Jason Bartlett is the opposite case.  Nobody expected his breakout in '09, as he hit more homers (14) than he had in his previous four seasons combined (11) and only Jeter and Hanley hit for a higher average (.320).  Bartlett is 30-years-old.  Is he a late bloomer, or was '09 a fluke?

Tejada's excellent showing in '09 continues to be overlooked.  He's no longer the power threat he was in his prime, but he still led the league in doubles, his a sparkling .313, and provided great run production for the position (83 R, 86 RBI).  It's hard to see how the move to Baltimore hurts him in any way.

9. J. J. Hardy (Twins)
10. Yunel Escobar (Braves)
11. Asdrubel Cabrera (Indians)
12. Stephen Drew (D-Backs)

As with Ramirez, you'd be drafting these guys for their upside as much as for any proven production, although they do all have at least one solid season in the rearview mirror.  Hardy and Drew have 20 HR power, but they're also strikeout machines.  Cabrera and Escobar don't excel at any particular aspect of the fantasy game, but each is quite likely to put up a .285-80-10-75-15 line, which is nothing to sneeze at from this position.

Offseason Prospectus #24: The Baltimore Orioles

In the last decade, the Baltimore Orioles pretty much disappeared from the national consciousness.  They were a force to be reckoned with in the mid-nineties, but the Orioles haven't even managed a winning season since 1997 and, of course, they are buried in the toughest division in baseball.

For too long, Peter Angelos and his revolving door of general managers attempted to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox by going after big-ticket free agents like Miguel Tejada, Rafael Palmeiro, Javy Lopez, and Albert Belle.  Not only did they make some unwise and unlucky choices, but Angelos, though he craved the big names, was never quite prepared to spend the big money, so the Orioles ended up with very limited depth, especially on the pitching staff, a weakness that was routinely exploited by the thunderous AL lineups they squared up against throughout the regular season.

In 2007, Angelos brought Andy MacPhail on board and there was a decisive change in priorities.  Veteran players like Tejada, Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Erik Bedard, and, most recently, Melvin Mora were allowed to walk or, in some cases, were shown the door.  In the process, MacPhail began rebuilding the farm system.  Now the Orioles have a very different look, loaded with young, exciting talents on both sides of the ball.  The question remains, however, will the results be any different?

Tejada's Dilemma

I mentioned in my free agent bargains post from earlier in the week that Miguel Tejada's negotiating position in the waning weeks of the offseason could be greatly improve if he is willing to consider becoming something other than a shortstop.  I want to point out, however, that there is more at stake than mere pride.  Tejada has been quietly climbing into the conversation of best hitting shortstops in the history of baseball.  His trails only Cal Ripken Jr. and A-Rod in homers hit as a shortstop during the integration era (I put very little stock in the numbers associated with a time during which a large cross-section of talent was not eligible to compete).  With another year at the position, Tejada would likely climb above 300 HR, at which point it would be hard to ignore him as part of the Hall of Fame debate.

Of course, mentions in the Mitchell Report will work against him, at least for the immediate future, but there is no denying Tejada's statistical credentials.  Sure, he's not quite in the league with Ripken, Rodriguez, and Ernie Banks, and he's never been great with the glove, but consider him in comparison to some of the other great shortstops who were most famous for their offensive contributions:

Miguel Tejada:
1871 G, 2114 H, 1116 R, 285 HR, 1185 RBI, 78 SB, .289 AVG, .341 OBP, .469 SLG
Robin Yount:
2856 G, 3142 H, 1632 R, 251 HR, 1406 RBI, 271 SB, .285 AVG, .342 OBP, .430 SLG
Pee Wee Reese:
2166 G, 2170 H, 1338 R, 126 HR, 885 RBI, 232 SB, .269 AVG, .366 OBP, .377 SLG
Alan Trammell:
2293 G, 2365 H, 1231 R, 185 HR, 1003 RBI, 236 SB, .285 AVG, .352 OBP, .415 SLG
Barry Larkin:
2180 G, 2340 H, 1329 R, 198 HR, 960 RBI, 379 SB, .295 AVG, .371 OBP, .444 SLG

All four of the above players were better than Tejada defensively, some by a wide margin, perhaps because they were all quicker, which also shows up in the steals department, but Tejada makes up for that weakness somewhat with his sizable power advantage.  With another couple years of merely mediocre production, he will eclipse all but Yount in most of the major counting categories, and Yount played a lot more total games (having entered the league when he was still a teenager) and played a lot fewer games at shortstop (his career was split almost perfectly down the middle between shortstop and centerfield).

Tejada also fairs pretty well in Bill James's "ink tests."  He won an MVP (in 2002) and received votes in eight different seasons (his highest finish outside of '02 was 5th)  He also earned two Silver Sluggers and made half a dozen All-Star appearances, including one in which he was awarded the All-Star MVP (in 2005).  He led the league in doubles twice and RBIs once, and has the fifth longest consecutive games streak in MLB history (1152 G).  Only Ripken and Steve Garvey have had longer ones since Gehrig.

Look out for falling prices...

When I previewed free agency in mid-November there were 83 featured players.  As of this morning, 48 of them had either signed, accepted arbitration, or retired, including all of the players who I expected to dictate the market: Holliday, Bay, Lackey, Chapman, Figgins, and Valverde.  At this point, with the beginning of Spring Training only a month away, those who remained unsigned are starting to get anxious.  Many teams have already declared themselves "spent" this offseason.  So, with demand shrinking, we are also looking at an inevitable drop in prices, particularly at those positions which still feature a fair supply of options.  During the waning months of the last offseason, several players signed cheap, short contracts and proceeded to produce well above their pay grade, including Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Orlando Hudson.  If you believe, as Eric Karabell says, that "there is no such thing as a risky one-year deal," than this is a great time for general managers to play with the house's money.

Orlando Hudson & Orlando Cabrera

This is the second time the Orlandos have found themselves in this unsavory position in the last twelve months.  Last winter both players signed one-year deals for under $4 Million.  Frankly, I don't understand it.  Both players are Gold Glove-winning middle infielders who are solid, sometimes superlative, offensive catalysts, and are also widely recognized as good teammates and energizing clubhouse presences.

Hudson is suffering in part because of his mysterious benching by Joe Torre late in last season.  Torre elected to turn to Ron Belliard (who's also still available) more and more in September and October, even though Hudson was an '09 All-Star and really only had one poor month (June).  In fact, his OPS+ (109) was the highest of his career.  Nevertheless, though O-Dog very well may have had legitimate beef with Torre's decision, he never voiced any displeasure and he embraced his newfound role, even coming up with a pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Cabrera's season had a slightly different arch, as he slumped with Oakland through the first four months of the season, but when he came to the Twins, he immediately became a favored member of the club, lauded by fans and management, who inspired his teammates and came up with several big hits (none bigger than the homer he hit in Game 163 against Detroit).

To me, these seem like players who you want on your club, but for the second year in a row the bulk of general managers have disagreed.

Potential Suitors (for Hudson): Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Nationals
Potential Suitors (for Cabrera): Astros, Reds, Twins

Miguel Tejada

The former AL MVP has the opposite problem from Hudson and Cabrera, whose perceived weaknesses are clearly as hitters.  Tejada proved in '09 that he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, by leading the NL in doubles and batting .313.  Even though he's a free swinger (only 19 BB in '09), there are very few teams that would welcome his addition to their lineup.  The problem is that many believe that Tejada's defensive skills have eroded to the point that he is no longer a satisfactory option at the game's premier defensive position, shortstop.  As such, Tejada's marketability in the coming months depends largely on his willingness to make a switch, probably to third base or designated hitter.  If he can swallow his pride and commit to such a conversion, just as Michael Young did prior to last season, he will see a dramatic increase in suitors and a corresponding increase in salary.

Potential Suitors: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics

Erik Bedard & Ben Sheets

One of the new business of baseball catchphrases is "reestablish his market."  It refers to players who need to take a short-term contract, not only because current demand necessitates it, but because it will be better for them in the long run.  Assuming they prove their health and effectiveness, Bedard and Sheets could be in line for much, much larger paydays a year from now.  Both have the potential to be frontline starters.  Sheets is a four-time All-Star (he started the game for the NL as recently as 2008) who is still in his early thirties.  Bedard is also just 31-years-old and looked on his way to becoming an Ace before injuries limited him to only thirty starts in two seasons with Seattle.  Even so, in those thirty starts, Bedard went 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 162 K in 164 IP, which gives you a sense of what he might've been capable of if he was fully healthy.

This is where Karabell's maxim really comes under fire.  If your teams signs one of these pitchers, you expect them to produce, at the very least, like a #2 (just ask those Cubs fans who assumed Rich Harden would be a Cy Young contender in '09 after he looked so dominant during the second half of '08).  Unfortunately, the odds are that at least one of these guys not only will fail to fulfill that expectation, but will probably miss most of the season, potentially crushing a whole city's dreams in the process.

Potential Suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Brewers