How much rest does a 37-year-old need?

This World Series has become, among other things, Exhibit A in the argument about pitcher's rest. There are several vocal proponents (most notably, Nolan Ryan) of the four-man rotation, a conception founded on the assumption pitchers only need three days between starts. While that is certainly the case for some pitchers (C. C. Sabathia for one, probably Ryan himself), A. J. Burnett reminded us last night that it isn't universal.

This November Charlie Manuel and Joe Girardi have elected to take opposite paths with their rotations. Manuel went with a conventional four-man rotation, meaning that his obvious Ace, Cliff Lee, will get the ball only twice (both of the game the Phillies have won) and the pivotal Game 7, if it comes to that, will fall into the hands of either Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, or J. A. Happ, none of whom inspired a great deal of confidence in October. Girardi, on the other hand, asks his three horses - Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettitte - to each go on short rest for their final start of the long season, with Sabathia slated to do it twice in a row, assuming we see a Game 7.

The Yankees are certainly still in the driver's seat with a three games to two advantage, but there was a significant momentum swing in yesterday's game when Burnett couldn't get through three innings in his second start, while a fully-rested Lee worked his way into the eighth. Now Yankee fans are faced with the recognition that Andy Pettitte didn't exactly dominate on full rest in Game 3, allowing two homers and four earned runs in six innings. And this time out, instead of getting a slumping, spiteful Cole Hamels, they get a fully rested Pedro Martinez, who pitched well enough at Yankee Stadium in Game 2 to quiet the "Who's your daddy?" douchebags (at least as much as any douchebag can be quieted). Somewhat surprisingly, the two 37-year-old potential Hall of Famers, who spent much of their careers pitching for American League rivals, have never matched up against each other in a postseason start. They've matched up six times during the regular season, with each picking up a win on three occasions. This will be a hell of a tiebreaker.

Andy Pettitte, of course, has an excellent reputation as a playoff pitcher, but his legend is as much about quantity as quality (17-9, 3.88 ERA, 161 K, 243 IP). Pettitte has started four playoff games on three days rest. Two went very well (8+ IP, 0 ER), one went very badly (3 IP, 5 ER), and one was modest, but inconclusive (6 IP, 4 ER). In the regularly season, on three days rest, he is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA, significantly worse than his career averages. Perhaps most important, however, is that fact that he hasn't started a single game on three days rest since 2006 (with the Astros) and hasn't started a playoff game on three days rest since 2003. I think we would all concur that he's put a lot of mileage on his arm since then.

The same is true of Pedro, who, like Pettitte, is 37-years-old. But he has the benefit of his regular rest going into Game 6 and also hasn't put as much stress on his body over the course of 2009, since he didn't make his first start until August. His postseason record is about quality, not quantity (6-3, 3.22 ERA, 91 K, 92 IP). He has never gone less than six innings in a postseason start. Sure, he may still have some demons from Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, but he has never been the losing pitcher in the deciding game of a postseason series and the meltdown in the eighth inning of that game (which prompted the firing the Grady Little) overshadows the fact that Pedro owned the Yankees for the first seven innings.

Manuel's rotation would appear to have the advantage in Game 6, but one certainly has to give Sabathia the advantage in Game 7, right?

Yes, I do think that's right, but I am concerned about the build-up of innings C. C. is facing. Girardi did a great job of keeping The Big Sleep fresh in August and September, since the Yankees ran away with their division, but with a long postseason (in which he's pitched exceptionally well) he's now up to 267 innings on the season, a massive total no matter how durable the pitcher. When Sabathia melted down in the 2008 NLDS, it was after 253 innings (and four straight starts on three days rest). In the 2007 ALCS, his meltdown came after 248 innings. Anybody who has watched him over the years knows that when he doesn't have it, he profoundly doesn't have it (see 13.50 ERA in his first four starts of 2008 or 10.45 ERA in 2007 ALCS). I hate to root for an implosion from one of my very favorite pitchers, but if it gets to a Game 7 that's exactly what I'll be doing.

A Surprising Abundance

As potential Comeback Player of the Year Oliver Perez battles Braves Ace, Tim Hudson, I am surprised to observe that the September Mets, once thought to have a glaring Achilles heal in the starting rotation, now seem to face some tough decisions due to an excess of strong, healthy arms heading into the playoffs. This, despite the face the Omar Minaya did not go out and acquire a starter at the trade deadline, as many suspected he might. While the Mets do not have anybody with numbers dominant enough to compare with Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb, or even Carlos Zambrano, they do have four pitchers who will record double digits in wins and almost undoubtedly finish significantly above .500. Willie Randolph may choose to build a playoff rotation which does not include his biggest winner, John Maine, who is 14-9 with a 3.80 ERA on the season, but only 4-5 with a 5.86 ERA since the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, over that same span, Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and the recently activated Pedro Martinez have gone a very impressive 17-3. Health issues may make Randolph's decision somewhat easier, as both Hernandez and Martinez have been strictly limited at times. But it will be difficult to exclude any of his trio of super-veterans considering those second half numbers which show no signs of fatigue and their postseason records. Pedro is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 11 playoff starts. Tom Glavine has made an amazing 35 playoff appearances, going a modest 14-16 with a 3.42 ERA, but that does include a World Series MVP. And, of course, the infamous El Duque will be going for a World Series thumb ring, having covered all his fingers, by going 9-3 with a 2.55 ERA in 14 postseason starts. Considering such a collection of gravitas, as well as the Mets deep bullpen and much-lauded offense, few teams, especially in the National League, seem likely to match up well with them in a short series. The Padres, their most likely first-round opponent at this point, can take some solace in the fact that they have taken four of six from the Mets this season in two very hard-fought second-half series.

300

While Tom Glavine chased down his magical 300th victory, we were subjected to a lot of commentary regarding the growing difficulty of achieving the milestone most associated with Hall of Fame pitchers. As the 500 HR club grows at a dramatically faster pace, it has been widely publicized that the 300 W plateau is becoming more and more difficult to achieve. The five-man rotation, smaller ballparks, the slider, steroids, etc. All are indicted as creating an atmosphere for pitchers which has allowed only three 300 game winners in the last sixteen years. In other words, as many as will likely join the 500 HR club this season.

The fact is, however, the 300 W club has always been this exclusive. Only three times in baseball history have there been three new members of the 300 W club in the span of five seasons. From 2003-2007 we have seen the addition of Glavine, Maddux, and Clemens. From 1982-1986, five pitchers - Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro, and Don Sutton - reached the mark. And the first five ballplayers to win 300 did so between 1888-1892: Pud Galvin, Tim Keefe, Mickey Welch, Charley Radbourn, and John Clarkson. So, you could say, there has been a glut of 300 game winners in recent seasons. Many of our contemporary commentators were probably spoiled by the richness of legendary pitchers in the '80s, which may be why it seems to them that winning 300 is getting harder. But, prior to 1982 there had been an even longer drought. Eighteen seasons came and went between Early Wynn's 300th win and Perry's. When Wynn won his 300th, Perry was still a relief pitcher with four career wins. And that isn't even the longest stretch without new members. Nineteen full seasons expired between 1941, when Lefty Grove won his 300th, and 1961, when Warren Spahn did. There has been speculation that we could be in for another, perhaps longer, drought, now that Glavine has reached the plateau. But I doubt it. Perhaps, due to his chronic back problems, Randy Johnson really will call it quits only 16 wins shy of 300. But I doubt it. The Big Unit proved this season that even in pain he could still be pretty dominant. He made seven quality starts in ten attempts for the Diamondbacks. Next season he is likely to start receiving the Roger Clemens treatment, thus giving him extra time to rest his back. And, he'll be pitching on a young team that is proving during the second half of this season that they can win a lot of games. Perhaps Mike Mussina, at age 38, cannot expect to win 50 more games. But I doubt it. He hasn't thrown less than 165 innings or won less than twelve games since his rookie season in 1991. He is a physically fit, control pitcher playing for a perennial contender. He is likely to follow in the footsteps of Glavine, Maddux, and Clemens, pitching well into his forties. Perhaps Pedro Martinez' surgery will leave him a shadow of his former self and prevent him from chasing the best winning percentage of any pitcher from the modern era (Spud Chandler - 71.7%; Pedro - 69.1%). But I doubt it. Pedro is only 35, but still needs 94 wins to reach 300. That's something of a long shot, I'll admit. But if Pedro does maintain the pace of his injury-free seasons, he'll only need five and a half more years.

Those are the only three who have already recorded upward of 200 victories who have a legitimate chance. Here are five more active pitchers who with another decade or so, have at least an outside chance of winning 300: Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, C. C. Sabathia, Mark Buehrle, and Johan Santana. Three factors figure heavily in these choices. Longevity: this includes both a track record of avoiding injury and a body-type likely to age gracefully (i.e. not David Wells or Bartolo Colon). Since Christy Mathewson (1912), only Maddux and Carlton have reached 300 prior to the age of 40. Stamina: the ability to consistently work deep into ballgames, the longer a pitcher stays around the more likely he is to get the W. The three most recent additions to the club averaged 6.77 inning per start over the entirety of their careers. Control: While there are some great strikeout artists in the club, the vast majority of the members pitched to contact and avoided the base on balls. Only Clemens (#14) and Ryan (#4) have 300 wins and also rank among the top 70 all-time in K/9 IP. Only four members (Wynn, Carlton, Glavine, and Niekro) averaged more than 3.00 BB/9 IP.