Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher

It's almost upon us.  The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week.  In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason.  There are still a few outstanding free agents.  Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs.  Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons.  Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts.  If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues.  For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes.  Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:

Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

I've already commended the Greinke trade.  The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar.  Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA.  It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support.  Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds.  The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating.  Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200.  He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now.  You'll have to pay for that production.

Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins

Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media.  He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins.  With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous.  He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league.  It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams.  The Marlins have a solid offense.  And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting.  I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.

Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals

Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds.  Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.

Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee.  Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier.  In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay.  He went 12-2 against everybody else.  At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.

Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs

I like Garza.  I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011.  I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East.  I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm.  However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate.  I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers.  And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball.  Garza should contribute a boatload of innings.  His ERA and WHIP should be very solid.  And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound.  I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins.  Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.

Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres

It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07.  Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons.  In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park.  He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells.  Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State.  It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.

J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%).  Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one.  In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA.  Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K).  For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.

Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:

Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals

Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010.  He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward.  Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland.  Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels.  Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation.  All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.

Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies

Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential.  According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies.  I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season.  However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant.  Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production.  Only twice has he topped 14 wins.  He's never had more than 185 strikeouts.  And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone.  All that said, I like Lee.  I just don't like the price.

Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage.  His walk rate went way up.  His K/BB rate  went way down.  He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate.  And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005.  Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor.  As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way.  This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball.  Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing.  He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him.  Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.

Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox

From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks.  Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success.  A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox.  Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace.  But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant.  Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06.  Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent.  In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.

Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh.  Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL.  Not a favorable combination.

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The New York Yankees

A Yankee win this evening would bring their playoff magic number to 1.  With both Tampa Bay and Minnesota neck-and-neck in terms of overall record, the Bombers still need a good week to assure themselves home-field advantage, but it seems a foregone conclusion, at least, that they'll once again be part of the drama of October baseball.

Earlier this week I discussed the invention of Narrative Likability Factor, a metric for baseball humanists.  NLF definitely gives priority to players and teams which have overcome obstacles and adversity, have suffered from perpetual underdog syndrome, have long-suffering fan-bases, and are replete with soulful, underrated players and coaches.

It probably goes without saying that the franchise which won last year's World Series, owns more championships than any team in professional sports history, consistently boasts the largest payrolls and revenues in the league, and caters primarily to the most affluent citizens of the nation's largest city does not score particularly high on the Narrative Likability scale.  In truth, the Evil Empire acts something like an inverse curvebreaker.  Their presence in the playoffs helps to raise everybody else's score.  Even the Phillies, two-time reigning NL Champs boasting multiple MVP winners and Cy Young candidates, seem like pesky underdogs compared to the team that ousted them just under a year ago.

Still, it seems necessary to set this bar, no matter how low.  The following narratives will probably only be appealing to that unfortunately preponderant sociopathic strain in American culture known as Yankee fandom, but here goes:

• The Boss Is Lost:  He is one of the great antiheroes of baseball history, but that doesn't necessarily make George Steinbrenner's career any less compelling.  We engorge ourselves on baseball villains as ravenously as on baseball's virtuous paragons.  In the event that - God Forbid! - the Yankees hoist another banner in 2010, there will undoubtedly be an entertaining postmodern perversity to the posthumous treatment of the curmudgeonly demagogue with "win-one-for-the-gipper" sentimentality.  His psychotic hellspawn - Hank and Hal - accept the trophy in his honor and blubber, through forced blood-tears, about their early years, hiding for weeks in tight, dark corners of the Steinbrenner mansion, quivering in response to the Boss' tendency towards filial cannibalism.  "We didn't know it then," Hank whinnies, "but he was just preparing us for the reality of the business world.  I will think of him most fondly every time we negotiate a new competitive-bargaining agreement."
• El Capitan:  Derek Jeter has been so uncharacteristically bad this year, posting by far the lowest OPS (707) of his fifteen-year career, that even his most rabid apologists have questioned the wisdom of resigning him to the kind of outlandish contract ($15-$20 Million/year) that seemed a foregone conclusion when the season began.  Several New York columnists, finding it more and more difficult to defend Jeter's performance, which has gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, have already resorted to commending him on rising to the occasion in October.  Captain Clutch, we all assume, will be right back to his old exploits (980 career OPS in ALDS) when the playoffs begin.  If this premonition proves accurate, prepare yourself for a even greater chokeload of Jeter love from Joe Buck and the rest mainstream media in the ALCS and World Series.  Jeter's postseason prowess is the well-placed dimple which provokes a father to call his plain-jane daughter "beautiful."
• Flipping the Script:  The Yankees biggest offseason acquisition, Javier Vazquez (10-9, 5.07 ERA) and Curtis Granderson (779 OPS), have had rather mediocre seasons, prompting the typical backlash from the coven of New York sportswriters who worship exclusively at the church of the trinity - Jeter, Rivera, Posada.  New guys suck, basically.  Granderson, who's been dogged by injuries much of the year, has quietly been very hot over the last month, with 8 HR, 22 RBI, and a 912 OPS.  Vazquez has continued to struggle, fueling the pervasive "can't hack it in New York" rants which began as soon as he was re-acquired.  Expect the tune to change if either or both of them step it up in October.  
• Spend, Baby, Spend:  In the wake of the MLB Confidential leaks at Deadspin, which suggest that teams like the Marlins may be making nearly as much in pure profit as the Yankees by merely pocketing their revenue-sharing dollars (many of which come directly out of the Yankee coffers), the "buying championships" argument is thinner than ever.  If there was ever a reason to root for the Yankees, this is it.  They're annually asked to subsidize their rivals, but then have to listen all year long to bitching about their $250 Million payroll while slimy owners like Jeffrey Loria trade away their best talents the moment they become eligible for arbitration.  At least the Yankees profit-model, as ugly as it may be, especially in the era of Yankee Stadium III, involves putting a competitive product on the field.  You'll need a sizable trust fund if you want to catch an obstructed view of that field, but you'll never have to worry about them starting Emilio Bonafacio is center-field in September.

At the end of last season, after the Yankees made relatively easy work of Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, I was able to take solace in the fact that if the Yankees didn't win at least one championship every decade, we might lose our sense of evil in the world.  The offseason will be even darker this year if they manage to repeat.  

Narrative Likability Factor: F (uck the Yankees!)

HippeauxNotes: On the verge of a Yankee implosion?

On Monday, the Yankees blew a five-run lead and needed two homers in the bottom of the ninth in order to walkoff against the Red Sox.  The following day they did the same thing, except this time it was their closer who gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth.  On Wednesday, they got stomped by Wade Davis and the Rays, yielding double-digit runs for the first time all season.  And yesterday Andy Pettitte had by far his worst outing of the season and the Rays once again piled it on, with four homeruns.

There is now more distance between the Yankees and the first-place Rays (5 games) than between the Yankees and the fourth-place Red Sox (3.5 games), and the Bombers have dropped eight out of twelve.  They are still on pace for 99 wins, so isn't necessarily time for desperate measures, but there are several causes for concern in the Bronx.

In the preseason, I got a lot of mileage out of the observation that the Yankees were the only team in 2009 who had eight regulars with 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers who made 30+ starts.  My point was that New York was likely to face more injuries this season and, unlike the Rays and Red Sox, I wasn't sure the Yankee roster was equipped to deal with such turmoil.

Already the Yanks have had to send Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Chan Ho Park, and Alfredo Aceves to the disabled list for extended stretches, while several other players, most notably Mariano Rivera, have dealt with minor injuries that have made them unavailable for a few games at a time.  As a result, Marcus Thames, Francisco Cervelli, Sergio Mitre, Randy Winn, Ramiro Pena, and Juan Miranda have all seen increased playing time.  The damage has been minimized by the fact that Thames (1001 OPS), Cervelli (904 OPS), and Mitre (3.32 ERA) have played exceptionally well, but the odds are certainly against them maintaining those numbers through prolonged exposure.

Injuries aren't the only cause of concern.  Prior to having three hits on Thursday, Derek Jeter had endured one of the rougher slumps of his career (.190 AVG over 18 games).  He has only four extra-base hits in May and his strikeout rate is way up, while his walk rate is way down.  It's probably just a slump, but with Granderson and Johnson out of the lineup, it's unfortunate timing.

Javier Vazquez has been a notorious disaster.  His 8.01 ERA leading to him being skipped on a couple occasions in recent weeks.  In his last start he managed seven strong innings against the Tigers, easily his longest outing of the season, evidence perhaps that he's on the mend, but the New York media has been quick to scapegoat him and his dreadful second half in 2004 remains an open wound for many Yankee fans.

A. J. Burnett was dominant in April and had a 1.99 ERA after six starts, but in his last three outings he's allowed sixteen earned runs in seventeen innings of work and walked as many batters as he's struck out. Burnett has always been prone to hot and cold streaks, so this is probably nothing more than that, but again, with Vazquez struggling, Pettitte nursing a minor injury, and even Sabathia turning in a couple of poor mid-May starts, the timing has been unfortunate.

Clearly, New York has some breathing room due to their hot start, but with Boston getting healthy and Detroit surging as well, they can't continue to lose two out of every three games for too much longer.  After a challenging road trip to Minnesota, the Yankees will play thirteen of their next sixteen games against Baltimore, Houston, and Cleveland, three of the four worst teams in baseball so far in 2010.  They'll have a chance to get healthy and pad their record a little before heading into a relatively challenging interleague schedule (v. Phillies, v. Mets, @ D-Backs, @ Dodgers).

The next six weeks could see New York and Tampa Bay distancing themselves from everybody else in the American League on the road to becoming the first duo of team to win 100+ games in the same division since the Mariners and Athletics did it in 2001.  Or, we could see the AL East's Wild Card dominance threatened.  Only one time in the last seven seasons (Detroit, '06) has the AL Wild Card come from another division.

Offseason Prospectus #26: The Atlanta Braves

I've got very little love for the Atlanta Braves.  I'll never be able to get past the abusive relationship they had with the early-'90s Pirates.  They are a team from the Deep South who didn't have the good sense not to employ an unabashedly racist reliever (John Rocker).  And, let's face it, the face of their franchise, Chipper Jones, falls somewhere between REO Speedwagon and offal on the likability scale.

That said, if this is in fact Bobby Cox's final season at the helm, I wouldn't be totally disappointed if the Braves made a somewhat unexpected playoff run on his behalf, with the caveat that it must end with the opposition beating them with a walkoff single by a backup infielder in Game 7 of the NLCS.

The Braves have positioned themselves to contend, if not for the AL East title, at least for the Wild Card.  It's hard to believe, but it's actually been four years since Atlanta finished even as higher than third place.  Granted, this stretch was preceded by fourteen consecutive division titles, so I don't feel terribly sorry for them, but it would befit Cox to go out on a high note.

Atlanta has a deep rotation, a solid retrofitted bullpen, and, assuming Jones and Troy Glaus stay healthy, just enough offense to be dangerous.

Ancient Spirits of Evil Trade Mumm-Ra to Decepticons for Skywarp & Dreadwind; Rumors that Former ThunderCat May Sign Blood-Pact With Boston Red Sox

I'm always thrilled when my least favorite NL team makes a trade with my least favorite AL team which has the potential to make both teams better. It's not hard for me to hate the Yankees or the Braves, the two most dominant franchises of my lifetime, but it's hard to find fault with a trade like this. Brian Cashman and Frank Wren both deserve the gratitude of their fans - their evil, evil fans - this holiday seasons.

To Braves: CF Melky Cabrera (25), LHRP Michael Dunn (25), RHSP Arodys Vizcaino (19)

To Yankees: RHSP Javier Vazquez (33), LHRP Boone Logan (25)

In the words of Mr. Rosenberg at It's About The Money, well, it's all about the money. Javier Vazquez was a Cy Young contender in 2009 (he finished 4th), but he also possessed the Braves third largest salary (behind Chipper Jones and Derek Lowe). Considering Javy's age and extensive track record, it's pretty unlikely that he'll ever be more valuable than he is right now, so it made great sense for Wren to deal him this offseason, gaining the Braves both greater financial flexibility and some solid young players in return. As added incentive, Atlanta has the rare good fortune of sitting on a stockpile of quality starting pitchers, with Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens all under contract through at least 2012.

To nobody's great surprise, the New York media has been a bit nonplused by the re-acquisition of Vazquez, who pitched for the Yankees in 2004, going 14-10 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 198 innings. Personally, I don't see a whole lot to complain about, even though the ERA was a little high. The real story, however, was Vazquez's fluky late-season slide, perhaps the result of an unreported injury. In his first 18 starts he went 10-5 with a 3.56 ERA and 7.2 K/9. But in his last fourteen he was 4-5 with a 6.92 ERA and 6.2 K/9. This was completely uncharacteristic of Vazquez, who over the course of his career has actually been a slightly better pitcher after the All-Star Break (Pre: 4.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.0 K/9; Post: 4.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.3 K/9). One cannot expect Javy to post anything resembling his '09 line (2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.8 K/9) pitching in the AL East and making half his starts at homer-happy Yankee Stadium, but with the New York lineup behind him, he's as safe a bet as anybody to again notch 15+ wins.

Clearly, the player most likely to have an immediate impact is Vazquez, but Melky Cabrera is an often overlooked and underrated player who at only 25 years of age has already played in nearly 600 major league games, including three postseasons and a World Series. He's a switch-hitter with modest power (13 HR in '09) and modest speed (10 SB in '09), who plays excellent defense, handles the bat well (only 59 K in 540 PA in '09), and still has plenty of room for development. In '09 he posted career highs in 2B, HR, SLG, and OPS, suggesting that his power, at the very least, is still trending upward. Melky's addition allows Atlanta to move Nate McLouth to left field, improving the outfield defense at two positions, and Matt Diaz to the bench, where he 921 career OPS against left-handers makes him an excellent pinch-hitter and platoon man (McLouth posted a measly 688 OPS against southpaws in '09).

At first glance, the exchange of Boone Logan and Michael Dunn seems a bit strange. They are both 25-year-old left-handed relief pitchers. Both have great strikeout rates, but problematic walk rates. Most scouts would probably tell you that their abilities are almost indistinguishable. But once again, it's all about the money. Boone Logan already has three full seasons and 164 major-league appearances under his belt with the Braves and White Sox. He'll become a millionaire through arbitration this spring. Mike Dunn, on the other hand, having been buried in an organization that rarely rushes young relievers, has logged only four innings at the major-league level, all this past September, so he won't be eligible for arbitration until 2013. Thus, the Braves are getting a pitcher who has essentially the same skills and upside as Logan, but for a much better price. The Yankees get a pitcher who has more professional experience and thus may be slightly better prepared for the pressure of pitching in the Bronx.

Finally, a full analysis of this trade won't be possible for many years to come, because the most talented player in the deal may be 19-year-old Dominican starting pitcher, Arodys Vizcaino. In the New York-Pennsylvania League last summer Vizcaino made a serious impression in ten starts. At just 18, he posted a 2.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9 rate. Clearly, Vizcaino won't be ready to join the Braves rotation until at least 2012, but he could turn into a frontline starter. Or...like so many young stud pitchers, he may fizzle out as innings wear him down. We'll just have to wait and see.