Notes on the Noughties

During the last few weeks the baseball media has been dominated by discussions of All-Decade rankings for players and teams. These discussions are, of course, founded upon an arbitrary window, which means they can lead to some odd conclusions. For instance, it has been generally accepted that Player of the Decade consideration comes down to A-Rod and Pujols, both of whom are certainly legitimate choices. However, imagine if we were including Barry Bonds' final two campaigns in the late '90s, or even had he been allowed to continue playing for two more seasons in his mid-forties (seasons which Bud Selig robbed from fans, a sin for which the commissioner should never be forgiven).

Bonds would, of course, lead Pujols and A-Rod in the vast majority of ratios and advanced metrics (OBP, SLG, OPS, WAR, Win Shares, etc.) and would be near the top in several counting categories as well (HR, BB, R, etc.). At the very least, it would have to be considered a three-horse race. A similar assumption can be made about Greg Maddux, who, despite retiring prior to the 2009 season, is still among the top ten starting pitchers of the decade in wins, starts, and innings, among other things.

However, despite the fact that All-Decade debates are purely academic, they operate as a mode for appreciating the recent history of the sport we love and, as such, are an enjoyable aspect of this Hot Stove season. As my contribution, I would like to levy praise upon a few people who have been under-represented in the All-Decade articles I've read so far. Most of these guys aren't worthy of being considered in the greatest players of the decade discussions at any position. In some cases, far from it. But their contributions nonetheless made an impact on the game and its fans, and in many cases, helped to define the way baseball was evolving in the decade of the 2000s.

Innings-Eater of the Decade: Livan Hernandez

The defining rotations of the 1990s were composed of three- and four-headed monsters: Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in Atlanta; Nagy, Hershiser, & Martinez in Cleveland; and the revolving door of free agent Aces who joined with Andy Pettitte in the Bronx (Clemens, Cone, Wells, Gooden, Rogers, & El Duque). I'm not sure that the "innings-eating" #3 starter was purely an invention of the Noughties, but teams certainly valued such pitchers more than ever before. Jeff Suppan and Carlos Silva netted nearly $50 Million apiece on the promise of fulfilling that role. Jamie Moyer appears prepared to pitch into his fifties in that capacity. But for me, the quintessential innings-eater is Livan Hernandez.

Too often this decade, organizations like the Giants and Expos asked him to be their Ace and that was not his calling, but Livan Hernandez gobbles up innings at a rate unprecedented in the contemporary era. From 2000 until 2006, he never pitched less than 216 innings in a season, topping out at 255 in 2004. Three times he led the league in innings, twice in complete games, and four times in hits allowed. This decade he threw a total of 2201 innings, 38 more than his closest competitor (Javier Vazquez). In the process he went 129-124 and maintained essentially a league-average ERA (4.46). Only Roy Halladay accumulated more complete games.

Best Season: Expos 2003 (15-10, 3.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 178 K, 233 IP, 8 CG, 3.12 K/BB)

LOOGY of the Decade: Steve Kline & Ray King

The "left-handed one-out guy" got a fair amount of play in Michael Lewis's Moneyball and can safely be counted among the major innovations of the contemporary era, the credit going usually to Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. And whether they discovered the LOOGY or not, they certainly possessed the most effective implementation of it, when, in 2004, on their way to 105 wins and the NL Championship with the Cardinals, they employed two LOOGYs, Steve Kline and Ray King, who combined for 153 appearances and 112 innings. King and Kline completely shut down opposing left-handed sluggers, allowing one lonely homer during the entire season and an opponent's OPS under 450.

Both King and Kline had relatively prolonged careers in this capacity. From 2001 to 2007 King made at least 67 appearances every year and maintained a 3.52 ERA. From 2000 to 2007 Kline made at least 66 appearances every year and maintained a 3.32 ERA. They rank #9 and #11 in relief appearances over the course of the decade, combining for 1173 appearances and 889 innings. But 2004 was the best for each.

Best Season: 2004 Cardinals (Kline: 1.79 ERA, King: 2.61 ERA)

TTO of the Decade: Adam Dunn

The "Three True Outcomes" hitter was another topic of discussion in Moneyball, referring to players who ended the vast majority of their at-bats with either a strikeout, a walk, or a home run. In the "Juiced Ball" era, such players were valuable, despite the high number of "unproductive outs" they were prone to make.

49.1% of all of Adam Dunn's plate appearances ended in one of those outcomes. Compare that to a more traditional RBI man like Mark Texeira, whose TTO rate is 33.9% or a more extreme opposing example like Albert Pujols, whose TTO is just 28.7%, despite the fact that he has similar homer and walk rates.

Dunn led the league in strikeouts on three occasions in the Noughties. He led in walks once. Most importantly, he had a truly impressive run of five straight 40 HR seasons, which ended last year, when he hit "merely" 38.

Best Season: 2004 Reds (46 HR, 108 BB, 195 K, 102 RBI, 105 R, 956 OPS, 51.2% TTO)

WAR-rior of the Decade: Franklin Gutierrez

The Wins Above Replacement statistic has become a favored metric of sabermetricians in recent years. It, like Bill James' Win Shares, attempts to balance offensive production with defensive efficiency and positional scarcity. The names at the top of the list usually aren't too surprising - Pujols, Mauer, Utley, etc. - but the performance of Franklin Gutierrez has continued to defy projections.

Over the last three seasons, the performance of the Mariners 26-year-old centerfielder went from 1.8 wins above replacement t0 5.9, ranking him twelfth among all hitters in 2009. Base on FanGraphs tabulations, that means Gutierrez is worth somewhere in the vicinity of $20 Million a year, even though in 2009, he made the league minimum.

Obviously, Gutierrez's performance is based largely on his off-the-charts defensive ratings. His only comparable is Andruw Jones in his prime. This coming arbitration season will be interesting on many accounts (Tim Lincecum, anybody?), not the least of which is whether Gutierrez's agent can make a case for a large award based on the new evolutions in defensive analytics.

Best Season: 2009 Mariners (.283 AVG, 18 HR, 85 RBI, 764 OPS, 27.1 UZR, 5.9 WAR)

Most Underrated Pitcher: Mark Buehrle

I was listening to a Baseball Today podcast earlier this week as they discussed their All-Decade selections and Eric Karabell and Peter Pascarelli scoffed when a listener suggested that Mark Buehrle might be part of the All-Decade rotation. I will admit, he's probably borderline, but if you don't think he's in the running, you haven't been paying attention. Only Livan Hernandez and Javier Vazquez threw more innings during the 2000s, despite the fact that Buehrle was just 20 when the decade began. Among pitcher who pitched in every season of the 2000s, he ranks eighth in ERA at 3.80. He's won 135 games during that span, also good for eighth. And has been the picture of consistency.

From 2001 to 2009 Mark Buehrle never made less than 30 starts. He has five seasons of 15+ wins and has netted double-digit wins in every year. He ERA has risen above the league average only once, in his rough 2006 campaign (12-13, 4.99), and on many occasions he has been among the league leaders (as low as 3.12 in 2005). He has a World Series ring, a Gold Glove, four All-Star nods, and, of course, a no-hitter and a perfect game.

Best Season: 2005 White Sox (16-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 149 K, 237 IP, 3.73 K/BB)

Most Underrated Hitter: Bobby Abreu

His performance in this year's ALDS went a long way towards raising people's awareness, but Abreu's extraordinary performance this decade was often overshadowed by his teammates in Philadelphia and the Bronx. Abreu got to the plate more times than anybody in baseball during the 2000s and he finished in the top ten in hits (#8), runs (#5), RBI (#10), stolen bases (#6), walks (#2), and OBP (#8). He was a 30/30 man twice and a 20/20 man in every season except '06 (15/30), '07 (16/25), and '09 (15/30).

Best Season: 2004 Phillies (.301 AVG, 118 R, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 40 SB, 971 OPS)

Most Underrated Fielder: Pedro Feliz

I'm certainly open to debating whether a man who has never posted an OPS of 800+ is worthy of being a major-league starter at the hot corner, as Feliz has been for most of the decade. I will strongly contend, however, that Feliz is one of the smoothest and most impressive glovemen to ever play that position. He fields the barehanded dribbler better than anybody I've ever seen, ranges well in all directions, and has a canon for an arm. Thankfully, the stats back me up. Over the course of the decade he compiled a UZR of 76.4 and a UZR/150 of 15.5. Here's how that compares to other third basemen from the top ten in games played during this decade.

UZR/150:

Pedro Feliz 15.5

Scott Rolen 15.5

Adrian Beltre 13.9

Brandon Inge 6.9

Mike Lowell -0.2

Aramis Ramirez -1.5

Alex Rodriguez -2.2

Melvin Mora -2.8

Chipper Jones -3.3

Troy Glaus -5.4

As you can see, Feliz deserves to be ranked on equal footing with Rolen and Beltre as the best defenders of the decade at their position, leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the field. That Feliz did not win a Gold Glove, while David Wright and Mike Lowell did, is among this decade's significant injustices.

Best Season: 2007 Giants (20 HR, 72 RBI, 708 OPS, 22.3 UZR, 2.8 WAR)

The Sporting Hippeaux's All-Decade Team:

C - Joe Mauer

1B - Albert Pujols

2B - Chase Utley

3B - Alex Rodriguez

SS - Miguel Tejada (This isn't just because I hate Jeter, stats back me up.)

LF - Barry Bonds

CF - Carlos Beltran

RF - Ichiro Suzuki

DH - David Ortiz

SP - Roy Halladay

SP - Randy Johnson

SP - Johan Santana

SP - Pedro Martinez

SP - C. C. Sabathia

RP - Mariano Rivera

RP - Billy Wagner

RP - Trevor Hoffman

RP - Francisco Rodriguez

RP - Joe Nathan

Honorable Mentions:

C - Victor Martinez

1B/3B - Carlos Delgado

2B/SS - Derek Jeter

OF - Vladimir Guerrero

OF - Andruw Jones

The Gold Gloves are Meaningless, Laughable (Part 2)

As I discussed yesterday, it is often very difficult to distinguish between the top tier of defenders. That's why I'm not going to bicker with a choice like Jimmy Rollins or Michael Bourn, because while I might prefer Mike Cameron or Rafael Furcal, there is no denying that Bourn and Rollins are in the upper echelon of NL defenders at their respective positions. In other cases, unfortunately, bickering is not only possible, but relatively easy. Here are the five most unfortunate aspects of this week's Gold Glove announcements:

5. The Gold Gloves are not without material consequences.

Yesterday I argued that the Gold Glove voters are uniquely unqualified to make the evaluations the award asks of them. Sad as this may be, one could easily argue that the individual awards presented every November should be regarded generally as meaningless, as players should be focused on team achievements anyway. Before making that argument, however, consider that many of the veterans who routinely win Gold Gloves, despite mediocre production, cost their teams money in the process. Torii Hunter will make an extra $100,000 for each Gold Glove he earns as an Angel. If he brings one home in every year of his contract, and the voters seem prone to making his award routine, than the Angels will pay out half a million dollars, more than the league minimum for rookie players, to subsidize Hunter's trophy case, despite the fact that one could easily argue that they are actually paying for the defense the Hunter played during his years in Minnesota (Hunter hasn't posted a positive UZR since 2005 and hasn't been among the league leaders at his position since 2003).

4. Do we really need to exaggerate the quality of Derek Jeter?

For years, Derek Jeter has been at the center of controversies regarding fielding statistics. Baseball Prospectus led the way in demonstrating that not only was Jeter not worthy of his Gold Gloves, but was, in fact, from 2004 until 2007 (during which time he won three Gold Gloves), the worst everyday shortstop in all of baseball. Eventually, this incredible discovery made its way into the mainstream media and even to the proud ears of Jeter himself. Many started speculating that a position change would be demanded, and soon. Even the Gold Glove voters denied him the award in '07 and '08, although at least one of their choices, Michael Young in '08, was arguably even worse.

The Yankee captain should be commended, however, because instead of becoming angry and belittling the evidence, as players are prone to do, he set about making himself better. He hired personal trainers and dedicated his offseason to improving his agility, quickness, and range. In 2008 he was an average AL shortstop defensively, which, of course, combined with his superior offensive talents, made him a very valuable commodity. And in 2009, he was even better. His 6.6 UZR* was the best of his career, as was his .986 fielding percentage. We should all note this as persuasive evidence that Derek Jeter is, in fact, deserving of his "Captain Intangibles" legacy. What it doesn't make him, however, is the best defensive shortstop in the AL. As the answer to that question, I would have accepted Elvis Andrus (10.7 UZR, .968 F%), Cesar Izturis (10.8 UZR, .985 F%), Adam Everett (8.9 UZR, .969 F%), or Erick Aybar (7.8 UZR, .983 F%). Unlike Jeter, each of these guys gets paid primarily for his glovework. It would be nice to see their dedication to that facet of the game get acknowledgement. After all, Derek Jeter takes home plenty of other hardware (see, in 2009 alone, Roberto Clemente Award, Hank Aaron Award, World Series ring, and probable Silver Slugger).

3. If you thought Mark Texeira was good this year, wait until you see what he's actually capable of.

Remember when Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove at first base even though he'd spent the entire season at Designated Hitter. It wasn't quite that egregious, but it was a little odd that Texeira's fielding reputation grew to new proportions in the spotlight of New York, even though it appeared to anybody that had been paying attention to his career throughout his tenure with Texas, Atlanta, and Anaheim that Texeira was struggling (I guess this is what happens when you follow Jason Giambi). He posted career lows in assists, range factor, and UZR. Perhaps nursing some nagging injuries, he was reluctant to throw the ball or move away from the bag. His numbers actually and embarrassingly resembled those of well-known stick-in-the-muds and DH-types, Billy Butler and Russell Branyan. He recorded less assists as a first baseman (49) than Kevin Youkilis (52), despite the fact that Youk played less than half as many innings at the position. Albert Pujols played a similar number of innings and recorded 185 assists.

Texeira will probably get better and likely will earn some Gold Gloves over the course of his career. Too bad he stole one this season from Miguel Cabrera, Kendry Morales, or Lyle Overbay.

2. Why do NL managers hate Albert Pujols and Chase Utley?

One of the grand ironies of this year's Gold Gloves is that while Jeter, Texeira, Joe Mauer, and Shane Victorino earned Gold Gloves largely based on their offensive contributions, two MVP-caliber sluggers who were actually dominant on both sides of the ball missed out, yet again. Chase Utley has now led NL 2B in UZR (by a significant margin) for five consecutive seasons. Here are his stats compared with 2009 winner Orlando Hudson and 2008 winner Brandon Phillips (who also has a case for being gypped this season):

Utley - 1357 INN, .985 F%, 408 A, 86 DP, 10.8 UZR

Phillips - 1332 INN, .988 F%, 409 A, 95 DP, 6.9 UZR

Hudson - 1272 INN, .988 F%, 359 A, 68 DP, -3.3 UZR

Hudson, certainly not a bad defender, was probably at best the fifth or sixth best second-baseman in the NL this season. Utley was the best and Phillips has been his only near competition for a long time now. For anybody else to win is frankly atrocious.

The Pujols case isn't quite as bad. Adrian Gonzalez is a very solid defender, but Pujols has in some ways changed how first base is played. He has led the league in range by a long shot in each of the last two seasons, mainly because he continues to play deeper and further from the bag than anybody else, without giving up a greater number of hits down the line. He changes the whole infield dynamic by giving converted outfielder Skip Schumaker some leeway to protect up the middle. He also gives himself the opportunity to range deep into foul territory to catch pop-ups, thus allowing Ryan Ludwick to play deeper and further off the line. Pujols dominance shows up in range factor (10.4 when the next best guy is at 9.7), assists (185 when the next best guy is at 136), double plays (140 when the next best guy is at 135), and putouts (1473 when the next best guy is 1387), as well as the more substantial and complicated metrics. It's a wonder the NL voters haven't noticed.

1. There was no acknowledgement for the single most valuable defender in all of baseball, Franklin Gutierrez.

This is a true tragedy. My qualm is not some much with the fact the AL voters recognized Torii Hunter, Ichiro, and Adam Jones, all of whom are fine defenders, but that they failed to noticed Gutierrez is an absolute travesty. In his first year as a full-time centerfielder, Gutierrez posted a ridiculous 29.1 UZR, the best by any player since Andruw Jones posted a 30.0 in 2005. Like Jones, Gutierrez has deceptive speed, gliding effortlessly to balls which many, seemingly faster players have to dive for, and via extraordinary route choices expands his range to cover almost two thirds of the outfield. Unlike Jones, he will never hit 50 HR, and therefore may never catch the eye of Gold Glove voters.

Here are my Gold Glove choices:

NL:

C - Yadier Molina

1B - Albert Pujols

2B - Chase Utley

3B - Ryan Zimmerman

SS - Rafael Furcal

LF - Matt Kemp

CF - Mike Cameron

RF - Randy Winn

P - Adam Wainwright

AL:

C - Gerald Laird

1B - Miguel Cabrera

2B - Placido Polanco

3B - Evan Longoria

SS - Elvis Andrus

LF - Carl Crawford

CF - Franklin Gutierrez

RF - David DeJesus

P - Mark Buehrle

*Ultimate Zone Rating is a defensive metric from FanGraphs which combines for infielders analytical metrics for range, double play efficiency, and general efficiency (errors, etc.) and for outfielders arm strength, range, and general efficiency.

The best deal in baseball?

Last December the Indians, Mariners, and Mets combined for a massive trade that distributed eleven players among the three teams. It wasn't treated as a blockbuster because the biggest name involved was the Mariner's incumbent closer, J. J. Putz, who was headed to New York, presumably as a very expensive set-up man for K-Rod, solidifying the Mets bullpen, which had been HORRIBLE in 2008. Although there were several valuable role players and a couple of B+ prospects among the rest, nobody would've expected any of the player involved to finish anywhere near the top 20 in Wins Above Replacement/Runs Above Replacement, the hottest new multi-factor metric born in the sabermetric community and intended to evaluate pitchers and position players on the same scale, with attention to offense, defense, ballpark and league adjustments, durability, and position scarcity.

Don't ask me to explain the formula. I can't.

What I can do is observe it that it yields some convincing results. Pujols does very well. As does A-Rod. Same for C.C. Sabathia and Tim Lincecum. No surprises there. But WAR/RAR rated Chase Utley as the #2 most valuable player in 2008, combining excellent hitting with superior defense at a premium position. All things considered, the top 12 from 2008 probably won't surprise anybody:

#1 Albert Pujols 8.9 WAR
#2 Chase Utley 8.1
#3 Chipper Jones 7.67
#4 Hanley Ramirez 7.57
#5 C. C. Sabathia 7.5
#6 Tim Lincecum 7.5
#7 David Wright 7.43
#8 Roy Halladay 7.4
#9 Cliff Lee 7.2
#10 Lance Berkman 6.8
#11 Mark Texeira 6.77
#12 Carlos Beltran 6.72

The 2009 results, on the other hand, might blow your mind a little:

#1 Zack Greinke 9.4
#2 Ben Zobrist 8.5
#3 Albert Pujols 8.4
#4 Joe Mauer 8.2
#5 Justin Verlander 8.2
#6 Tim Lincecum 8.2
#7 Chase Utley 7.7
#8 Derek Jeter 7.4
#9 Hanley Ramirez 7.32
#10 Roy Halladay 7.3
#11 Evan Longoria 7.26
#12 Ryan Zimmerman 7.1
#13 Felix Hernandez 6.9
#14 Prince Fielder 6.7
#15 Cliff Lee 6.6
#16 Javier Vazquez 6.6
#17 Adrian Gonzalez 6.4
#18 Jon Lester 6.2
#19 Dan Haren 6.1
#20 C. C. Sabathia 6.0
#21 Chone Figgins 5.9
#22 Franklin Gutierrez 5.8
#23 Adam Wainwright 5.7
#24 Ubaldo Jimenez 5.7
#25 Matt Holliday 5.6

You will note a couple of things even about the players whose inclusion in the top 25 isn't much of a surprise. Guady homer, RBI, or win totals don't overwhelm this metric. Sabathia (19-8) and Wainwright (19-8) finish in back of guys like Lee (14-13) and Haren (14-10). Prince Fielder's 141 RBI well behind Utley and Ramirez. Miguel Cabrera (5.5), Mark Texeira (5.2), Ryan Howard (4.9), Chris Carpenter (5.6), and Josh Beckett (5.3) all finish just outside the top 25.

There are a couple things going on here. WAR/RAR, with pitchers especially, gives us a good sense of the "luck" factors (ballparks, opponents, run support, etc.). The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays finished 1, 3, and 5 in the AL in scoring this season. Roy Halladay had to make 15(!) of his 32 starts against those three teams. He went 6-7 (2.97 ERA) against them. He went 11-3 (2.62 ERA) against everybody else. The strength of his competition pushes him ahead of bigger winners like Sabathia and Hernandez, and better ERAs, like Carpenter and Wainwright.

As far as position players, defense figures heavily...as it should! The posterboy in this case is Franklin Gutierrez. Which brings me full circle. Gutierrez was one of those players the Mariners landed last December. You see, the Indians, Franklin's former franchise, were loaded with outfielders. They had Grady Sizemore entrenched in center, Gutierrez's natural position. They had Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo fighting for at-bats from the corner spots and Matt LaPorta, the prize of the recent C. C. Sabathia deal, slugging his way towards the big leagues as well. So, Gutierrez was expendable. Or was he?

It isn't so much that Sizemore, Choo, and LaPorta aren't good players, as is Francisco, who is now with the Phillies, but Gutierrez proved this season in Seattle that he is something very special. His hitting has been steadily improving over the past couple of seasons. His OBP jumped thirty points in 2009 to a respecable .339. He's provides a moderate speed/power combination. This year he hit 18 HR and stole 16 bases. Next year, at the magical age of 27, he may be a 20/20 threat. Still, as a hitter, Gutierrez's upside is probably akin to Mike Cameron. There's nothing wrong with that. Cameron has been a very likable everyday starter for well over a decade, but as good as he is in center field, Gutierrez is even better. Gutierrez's Ultimate Zone Rating (28.5) was 10 points higher than any player at any position this season, 16 higher than the next best centerfielder (B. J. Upton, 12.7). It was the best UZR by an outfielder since Andruw Jones netted a 30.0 in 2005. Now Franklin benefited from maximum playing time. Only Matt Kemp, Curtis Granderson, and Vernon Wells played more innings in center, and none by much, but his UZR/150 was still significantly higher than the his best competition. He was at 19.2, Upton at 10.8, and another Mariner, the shortstop, Jack Wilson, was at 15.3.

In a roundabout way I am trying to highlight the impressive job Jack Zduriencik has done in his short tenure with the Mariners. He dealt an expensive, replaceable closer (in other words, a closer) and got arguably a top 25 player in return. The Mariners paid Gutierrez just $450,000 this season. He won't be a free agent for three more seasons. And, because so much of his value is wrapped up in defense, he probably won't get as much in arbitration as he deserves. Moreover, that's not all Zduriencik landed!?! He got a couple of low-end prospects, Ezequiel Carrera and Maikel Cleto; a solid fifth outfielder in Endy Chavez; a young, cheap potential back-of-the-rotation starter in Jason Vargas; a 23-year-old first basemen name Mike Carp, who hit .315 in his cup of coffee this September; and a journeyman reliever, Aaron Heilman, who he turned around and sent to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson, both young and cheap, the former of whom he used to go get Jack Wilson.

Prior to becoming the Mariners GM, Zduriencik was most famous for being the Scouting Director for the Brewers from '99-'06 who drafted Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, J. J. Hardy, Manny Parra, Andrew Bailey, Dana Eveland, Mat Gamel, and Ben Sheets. It represents a rare stretch of extremely successful drafting. Mariners fans are hoping Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin represent the beginning of a similar era in Seattle. The Mariners haven't had a first-round stud since Jason Varitek in 1994 (they did get Adam Jones as a compensation pick in 2003, as well as J. J. Putz and Rich Harden in later rounds in 1999).