A few potential All-Stars who might surprise you...

There are certain to be a few first-time All-Stars this season.  Ubaldo Jimenez, who has to be the current favorite to start the game for the NL, will certainly get his first selection thanks to a couple of history-making months.  Rookie outfielder, Jason Heyward, is currently among the leading vote-getters in the NL outfield, and should be destined for selection even if he isn't voted in by the fans.  Also much-lauded is the AL co-leader in homeruns, Jose Bautista.

There are, naturally, also a few superb performers who have been largely overlooked by the media.  I offer a handful of unsung heroes who certainly won't be starters and in some cases would be borderline selections, but who definitely deserved consideration and increased publicity based on what they're doing in 2010.

Jose Valverde - RP - Detroit Tigers

Several balked at the size of the contract he received during the offseason, but thusfar he has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius, saving 16 games in 17 opportunities, and compiling a ridiculously low 0.59 ERA through his first thirty appearances.  Those supposedly much tougher AL lineups have managed to hit just .105 off Valverde, who had spent his previous seven seasons in the National League.    He got roughed up in his second appearance of the season, but has allowed one lonely run since.  Despite being one of the best closers in baseball during the last four season, Valverde has just one previous All-Star selection, in 2007, when he led the NL in saves with 47.

Aubry Huff - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants


Many fantasy owners gave up on Huff after a shabby April.  Since then, he has been among the top hitters in the National League, batting .342 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, and 1052 OPS in his last forty-some games.  Considering how bad the rest of the Giants have been offensively, Huff has to be given a great deal of the credit for keeping them in the thick of the NL West race.  He move to the outfield certainly helps his chance of selection, as there is a logjam at first base.


Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

I know, I know...I've beat this horse to death, but Ian Kennedy has been damn good this season, especially in the last two months.  His record is merely 3-5, largely because of very modest run support.  Kennedy's shot at selection increases because of his team.  The D-Back's top two players, Justin Upton and Dan Haren, are both having sup-par first halves, and other relatively big-name candidates, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, haven't been spectacular either.  Kennedy's major competition as Arizona's rep comes from resurgent hitters, Kelly Johnson and Chris Young.  His disadvantage is that so many NL starting pitchers are having strong seasons that his avenue to selection may be much more difficult than that of his position-playing teammates.

Marlon Byrd - CF - Chicago Cubs

The Cubs stink.  They stink in no small part because their biggest salaried players - Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, etc. - are all simultaneously having career-worst seasons.  Marlon Byrd, however, the 32-year-old outfielder who was supposed to regress following a breakout season in Texas, has actually gotten better...way better.  All that stands between him an his first All-Star appearance is the equally inexplicable Carlos Silva.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers

Furcal is very quietly having the season many expected him to have last year.  He has again missed some time, but in 167 at-bats is hiting .305 with a .354 OBP, 9 SB, and, of course, stellar defense.  He has been the Dodgers catalyst at the top of the lineup.  With Troy Tulowitzki and Jimmy Rollins lost to the NL with injuries, there's a good chance Furcal could get the nod as Han-Ram's back-up.

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

Only eight major-leaguers have double-digit steals and double-digit homers at this juncture in the season.  The group includes superstars like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, and  David Wright.  It also includes Chris Young, who after two horrible seasons of regression is finally fulfilling the promise of his rookie year.  He's currently on pace for 28 HR and 28 SB, so the 30/30 potential once heralded is still very much a possibility.  Crucially, Young has cut down on his strikeout rate and raised his average.  He's on base more often and is running far more frequently than he did in the past.  He's also been especially good in RBI situations (906 OPS with men in scoring position).

Fantastic Thoughts: "Fat closers make happy owners." (Closer Preview)

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers)
5. Joe Nathan (Twins)

If you want one of these guys, you'll have to pay, either with one of your first five picks, or $25-$30 (if not more) in an auction.

6. Jose Valverde (Tigers)
7. Francisco Cordero (Reds)
8. Bobby Jenks (White Sox)
9. Trevor Hoffman (Brewers)

I really believe that this is where the value is.  Every year, the pundits become convince that these guys are just waiting to self-destruct.  Too fat.  Too old.  Too wild.  Too cocky.  But last year they combined for 130 saves.  In 2008, it was 138.  173 in '07.  136 in '06.  Many will bet against them in 2010 and maybe they'll finally be right, but me, I'll grab one of the fat boys in the middle rounds and odds are I'll be just fine.

10. Joakim Soria (Royals)
11. Brian Wilson (Giants)
12. Andrew Bailey (Athletics)
13. Huston Street (Rockies)
14. Carlos Marmol (Cubs)

The young guns.  A couple of these guys may jump into the top tier by the end of the year.  Soria would have been there already if injuries hadn't cut into his '09 campaign, thus causing potential owners some anxiety.  The price of youth is inconsistency, so buyer beware, but you'll be entertained watching them pitch.

15. Heath Bell (Padres)
16. Frank Francisco (Rangers)
17. David Aardsma (Mariners)

This trio pitched well in their first year captaining a bullpen and there's no obvious reason why they wouldn't do so again.  However, you should be slightly wary.  Literally hundreds of relievers have posted a 30-save season, but only a few dozen have done it more than once.  The sophomore season is when the wheat gets separated from the chaff when it comes to closing ballgames.

18. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
19. Brian Fuentes (Angels)
20. Billy Wagner (Braves)
21. Mike Gonzalez (Orioles)
22. Rafael Soriano (Rays)
23. Kerry Wood (Indians)
24. Octavio Dotel (Pirates)

These players have all done this job for several years and done it well, but there are a few reasons to be skeptical of them in 2010, to an extent you may not have been in the past.  Brad Lidge was a much-publicized mess last season.  There is no way Charlie Manuel will give him as long a leash if he again struggles out of the gate.  Brian Fuentes led the league in saves, but got bombed down the stretch and in the postseason, something Angels fans won't soon forget.  Wagner is old.  Wood is brittle.  You get the picture.

25. Leo Nunez (Marlins)
26. Ryan Franklin (Cardinals)
27. Matt Capps (Nationals)

This trio managed to win and hold down the closer's role for most or all of 2009, but they did so without dominating results.  They will be pressed from the start in 2010 and may not even survive Spring Training.

28. Juan Gutierrez (D-Backs)
29. Chad Qualls (D-Backs)
30. Jason Frasor (Blue Jays)
31. Brandon Lyon (Astros)
32. Matt Lindstrom (Astros)
33. Scott Downs (Blue Jays)
34. Kevin Gregg (Blue Jays)

The closer role is still TBD in Toronto, Houston, and Arizona.  These guys are likely to be battling it out all through the spring and possibly even into April, so you're unlikely to know for sure that you're even drafting a closer.  Nonetheless, it's worth speculating in the late rounds or with a few dollars, because it wouldn't surprise me at all if every guy on this list ends up with at least 8-10 saves.

35. Fernando Rodney (Angels)
36. J. P. Howell (Rays)
37. Ryan Madsen (Phillies)
38. Jim Johnson (Orioles)
39. J. J. Putz (White Sox)
40. George Sherrill (Dodgers)
41. Mike MacDougal (Marlins)

If you take one of these guys at the end of your draft, expect to be about as popular as a stock-shorter on the floor of the exchange.  By choosing a player from this tier or the one below it, you're essentially saying you have no faith in that team's current closer, either because you think they are going to be ineffective or injured.  The above group features players who have closing experience and have even had moderate success in the venture, and therefore are pretty much guaranteed the first shot at the job if the current closer does falter.

42. Neftali Feliz (Rangers)
43. Daniel Bard (Red Sox)
44. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
45. Angel Guzman (Cubs)
46. Drew Storen (Nationals)
47. Chris Perez (Indians)
48. Jason Motte (Cardinals)
49. Jose Ceda (Marlins)
50. Mike Adams (Padres)
51. Matt Thorton (White Sox)
52. Manny Corpas (Rockies)

These are "big" young arms who project as potential future closers.  It wouldn't take a miracle for them to end up doing the job as some point this season.  The first three on the list are especially interesting.  All three have the potential to contribute even as set-up men, because they'll feature good ERAs and WHIPs alongside a ton of strikeouts.  Moreover, as all three should move into either a closer or starter roles at some point in the next year or two, so they've got long-term consequences in keeper leagues.

Look out for falling prices...

When I previewed free agency in mid-November there were 83 featured players.  As of this morning, 48 of them had either signed, accepted arbitration, or retired, including all of the players who I expected to dictate the market: Holliday, Bay, Lackey, Chapman, Figgins, and Valverde.  At this point, with the beginning of Spring Training only a month away, those who remained unsigned are starting to get anxious.  Many teams have already declared themselves "spent" this offseason.  So, with demand shrinking, we are also looking at an inevitable drop in prices, particularly at those positions which still feature a fair supply of options.  During the waning months of the last offseason, several players signed cheap, short contracts and proceeded to produce well above their pay grade, including Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Orlando Hudson.  If you believe, as Eric Karabell says, that "there is no such thing as a risky one-year deal," than this is a great time for general managers to play with the house's money.

Orlando Hudson & Orlando Cabrera

This is the second time the Orlandos have found themselves in this unsavory position in the last twelve months.  Last winter both players signed one-year deals for under $4 Million.  Frankly, I don't understand it.  Both players are Gold Glove-winning middle infielders who are solid, sometimes superlative, offensive catalysts, and are also widely recognized as good teammates and energizing clubhouse presences.

Hudson is suffering in part because of his mysterious benching by Joe Torre late in last season.  Torre elected to turn to Ron Belliard (who's also still available) more and more in September and October, even though Hudson was an '09 All-Star and really only had one poor month (June).  In fact, his OPS+ (109) was the highest of his career.  Nevertheless, though O-Dog very well may have had legitimate beef with Torre's decision, he never voiced any displeasure and he embraced his newfound role, even coming up with a pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Cabrera's season had a slightly different arch, as he slumped with Oakland through the first four months of the season, but when he came to the Twins, he immediately became a favored member of the club, lauded by fans and management, who inspired his teammates and came up with several big hits (none bigger than the homer he hit in Game 163 against Detroit).

To me, these seem like players who you want on your club, but for the second year in a row the bulk of general managers have disagreed.

Potential Suitors (for Hudson): Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Nationals
Potential Suitors (for Cabrera): Astros, Reds, Twins

Miguel Tejada

The former AL MVP has the opposite problem from Hudson and Cabrera, whose perceived weaknesses are clearly as hitters.  Tejada proved in '09 that he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, by leading the NL in doubles and batting .313.  Even though he's a free swinger (only 19 BB in '09), there are very few teams that would welcome his addition to their lineup.  The problem is that many believe that Tejada's defensive skills have eroded to the point that he is no longer a satisfactory option at the game's premier defensive position, shortstop.  As such, Tejada's marketability in the coming months depends largely on his willingness to make a switch, probably to third base or designated hitter.  If he can swallow his pride and commit to such a conversion, just as Michael Young did prior to last season, he will see a dramatic increase in suitors and a corresponding increase in salary.

Potential Suitors: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics

Erik Bedard & Ben Sheets

One of the new business of baseball catchphrases is "reestablish his market."  It refers to players who need to take a short-term contract, not only because current demand necessitates it, but because it will be better for them in the long run.  Assuming they prove their health and effectiveness, Bedard and Sheets could be in line for much, much larger paydays a year from now.  Both have the potential to be frontline starters.  Sheets is a four-time All-Star (he started the game for the NL as recently as 2008) who is still in his early thirties.  Bedard is also just 31-years-old and looked on his way to becoming an Ace before injuries limited him to only thirty starts in two seasons with Seattle.  Even so, in those thirty starts, Bedard went 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 162 K in 164 IP, which gives you a sense of what he might've been capable of if he was fully healthy.

This is where Karabell's maxim really comes under fire.  If your teams signs one of these pitchers, you expect them to produce, at the very least, like a #2 (just ask those Cubs fans who assumed Rich Harden would be a Cy Young contender in '09 after he looked so dominant during the second half of '08).  Unfortunately, the odds are that at least one of these guys not only will fail to fulfill that expectation, but will probably miss most of the season, potentially crushing a whole city's dreams in the process.

Potential Suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Brewers

Offseason Prospectus #18: The Houston Astros

Houston's general manager, Ed Wade, made perhaps his biggest splash of the winter this weekend by signing free agent right-hander, Brett Myers, for $5 Million.  Although Wade has been busy throughout the Hot Stove season, Myers is the most reputable addition he's made.  Wade chose, instead of chasing John Lackey, Chone Figgins, or any of the other big-ticket free agents who would've been good fits in Houston, to pursue a handful of less notable complimentary players.  He renovated the bullpen by signing Brandon Lyon (3 yrs./$15 Mil.) and trading for Matt Lindstrom.  He improved his infield defense by adding Pedro Feliz (1 yr./$4.5 Mil.) and allowing Miguel Tejada to walk, so that he could cede shortstop to some combination of Jeff Keppinger and prospects.  Finally, he signed Myers, who despite struggling to stay out of trouble and on the field in Philadelphia, pitched quite well as both a starter and a late-inning reliever.  The Astros would like him to join the rotation, which was their Achillies heel in 2009.

Free Agents:

Brandon Backe (32) RHSP

Doug Brocail (43) RHRP

Chris Coste (37) C [Signed w/ Mets]

Darin Erstad (36) 1B/OF

Geoff Geary (33) RHRP

Mike Hampton (37) LHSP

Latroy Hawkins (37) RHRP [Signed w/ Brewers]

Miguel Tejada (36) SS

Jose Valverde (30) RHCL  

Arbitration Eligible:

Michael Bourn (27) CF

Tim Byrdak (36) LHRP

Jeff Keppinger (30) UT

Hunter Pence (27) RF

Humberto Quintero (30) C

Wandy Rodriguez (31) LHSP

Chris Sampson (32) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Chris Johnson (25) 3B

Tommy Manzella (27) SS

Wladimir Sutil (25) SS

Polin Trinidad (25) LHSP

Unfortunately for the Astros and their fans, Houston posted one of its worst seasons of the decade in 2009, despite having the franchise's largest ever payroll ($103 Million).  Astros County expects Houston will try to roll back that payroll slightly in 2010, to somewhere between $90-95 Million.  The 'Stros do have a fair number of veterans coming off their books, but they still have enormous commitments to Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee, as well as sizable arbitration awards coming for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn.  Astros County thoughtfully argues that the Houston fan base can't expect the franchise to make another commitment this offseason of anything more than $3 Million.  That means even if Ed Wade uses that remaining cash very efficiently, the 2010 Astros are still going to have some gaping holes, especially for a team that hopes to compete with at least three divisional contenders: the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs.


I'll start with some good news.  The Astros rotation will be better than it was in '09.  Granted, it couldn't be much worse.  The '09 'Stros finished with a rotational ERA of 4.79, 14th in the NL.  But there's cause for hope going forward.  Roy Oswalt had the worst season of his career (8-6, 4.12 ERA).  At only 32, he's almost sure to bounce back.  Wandy Rodriguez (14-12, 3.02) continued to trend in the right direction, developing into a solid #2 starter.  He has improved his ERA, WHIP, and K/BB rate in each of the last three seasons, but continues to struggle on the road (4.05 ERA, compared to 2.08 at Minute Maid), which means there's still room for improvement.  Rodriguez remains a somewhat unheralded pitcher and could be a breakout player in '10.


Myers will likely slot into the rotation at #3, followed by Bud Norris.  Norris made ten starts as a rookie, going 6-3 with a 4.53 ERA.  He finished especially strong by going 3-0 in four September starts witha 1.57 ERA, 24 K, and only 6 BB in 23 innings.  Compare that to an August in which he walked 18 batters in 30 innings, causing his ERA to skyrocket (6.98).  If he has indeed solved those control issues, he could be a very solid back-end starter this coming season and a future star.


Yorman Bazardo, Felipe Paulino, Brian Moehler, and Polin Trinidad will also be fighting for starts, and with the exception of Moehler there is reason to believe that all of them have fairly bright futures.  Paulino was very inconsisten in '09, but is still only 26 and showed a solid strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and was even dominant for brief stretches.  Bazardo and Trinidad are youngsters who have proven themselves in the minors and will look for the opportunity to reach the bigs for good in 2010.


The Astros lineup reminds me a great deal of the '09 Twins.  At the top, their is some serious thunder.  Michael Bourn has developed into solid archetypal center-fielder/leadoff-hitter, whose speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, an in '09 he raised his OBP by 70 points, to a respectable .354.  Behind him are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Hunter Pence, a commendable trio of sluggers who have combined for 75+ HR in each of the last three seasons.  However, as in Minnesota, the bottom of the Astros lineup is a barren wasteland.  Kaz Matsui's OPS dropped to 659 in '09.  Pedro Feliz was only slightly better, at 694, and that was when he was hitting in that mechanism of pitcher fatigue, the lineup of the Philadelphia Phillies.  Behind them there will be J. R. Towles (609 OPS in 234 MLB AB) and either Keppinger (707 OPS in '09) or one of the defensively-minded prospects, Tommy Manzella (756 OPS at AAA in '09) or Wladimir Sutil (673 OPS at AA in '09).  Followed by a pitcher, that means there are five "easy outs" in a row, which will also make it easier for pitchers to avoid Berkman and Lee or attack Bourn and Pence as necessary.  If the Astros are going to have a chance this season, they need one of those "easy outs" to exceed expectations.  The most likely candidates are Matsui, who had a 781 OPS as recently as '08, and Towles, who posted strong OBP numbers throughout the minor leagues.  


The other possibility is that Ed Wade will be able to secure an additional cheap bat from among the disappointed free agents who are still looking for work come Spring Training.  I'm guessing he's keenly following negotiations with Orlando Cabrera and Rod Barajas. 


While the Astros did add two solid relievers this offseason (Lyon and Lindstrom), they also lost one of baseball's best closers (Jose Valverde) and their top set-up man (LaTroy Hawkins).  It will be a major challenge for Lyon and Lindstrom to replace that pair, who combined in '09 for 117 innings, 36 saves, 20 holds, and a 2.21 ERA.  The Astros bullpen was hardly lights out even with Valverde and Hawkins (4.13 ERA in '09), so Houston needs somebody to make a BIG step forward and protect leads for their improved rotation.  Jeff Fulchino (3.40 ERA in 82 IP) and Tim Byrdak (3.23 ERA in 61 IP) will need to build on their solid '09 performances and somebody from the group of young, promising arms will need to become a late-inning guys, either Wesley Wright, Alberto Arias, or one of the three prospects listed above who aren't in the rotation.


I'm guessing a lot of casual fans will look at the Astros this spring and think they are serious contenders in the NL Central. The middle of their lineup and their front four starters match up fairly well with many of their rivals.  However, those who follow this blog know that I consider roster depth among the most important aspects of building a competitive team for the six-month haul.  Frankly, the Astros are just plain thin, and their several weaknesses are going to be exposes over and over again by the middle of summer, especially if they suffer even one injury among that core group.  It would only take a small amount of bad luck for the Astros to actually sink below the Pirates and finish in last place for the first time since 1991.


Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:


CF Michael Bourn (L)
2B Kaz Matsui (S)
1B Lance Berkman (S)
LF Carlos Lee (R)
RF Hunter Pence (R)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C J. R. Towles (R)
SS Jeff Keppinger (R)
SP Roy Oswalt (R)


SP Wandy Rodriguez (L)
SP Brett Myers (R)
SP Bud Norris (R)
SP Yorman Bazardo (R)


CL Brandon Lyon (R)
SU Matt Lindstrom (R)
SU Jeff Fulchino (R)
MR Tim Byrdak (L)
MR Alberto Arias (R)
LOOGY Wesley Wright (L)
SWING Felipe Paulino (R)


C Humberto Quintero (R)
1B/3B Geoff Blum (S)
SS Tommy Manzella (R)
OF Jason Michaels (R)
OF Jason Bourgeois (R)