The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays. Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib thinks this is a move that makes the Cubs serious contenders again in the NL Central. I caution all Cubs fans against such enthusiasm.
Here's the good news. Garza is a pitcher in his prime. He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players. Garza is a premium talent. He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches. In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP. He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons. He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007. Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental. And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central. That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board. Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.
It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty. A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage. And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come. However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011. Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke. And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.
Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story. From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA. Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September. Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League. More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss. My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace. That could be true. Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern. His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9). He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12). According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average). There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.
Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term. In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza. He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation. Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average. Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall. Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood. Is that really a solution? Maybe, maybe not. On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage. Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings. In fact, it probably exacerbates them.
Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09. Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward. Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth. The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman. The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.
I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.
UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels. MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.
Showing posts with label Ted Lilly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ted Lilly. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Friday, December 03, 2010
GM Hot Seat: Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers
Clearly, Colletti's job is safe, so long as McCourt Divorcegate continues, which will likely be deep into the 2011 season, if not beyond. But, at some point down the line, either Frank, Jamie, or a new owner is going to be looking to put this extremely unfortunate chapter in the Dodgers history in the rearview mirror and, at that point, everybody in the current administration will be put under the microscope.
Sure, Colletti's got a few things to hang his hat on. The Dodgers have been to the playoffs three times in his five years as GM, and advanced all the way to the NLCS on two of those occasions. He masterminded the acquisition of Manny Ramirez, which was wildly successful...until it wasn't, but he hardly could've foreseen Manny's suspension and rapid decline. He brought in Joe Torre, who was the most popular Dodger manager since Tommy Lasorda. And, he's proved himself an aggressive wheeler and dealer, trading for helpful players like Casey Blake, Ron Belliard, Jim Thome, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, etc. at times when they were needed to fill key roles and he never gave up a whole lot in return.
Of course, underlying the solid track record of success on the field is the open secret among the Dodger faithful; most of the talent responsible for the deep runs in 2008 and 2009 came from the tenures of Coletti's predecessors, Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jonathan Broxton were all drafted (or signed) prior to Colletti's arrival in 2006. It's probably too early to fairly evaluate Colletti's drafting and development record, but his only pick to pan out thusfar is Clayton Kershaw.
As for Colletti's record in free agency, that's very easy to address, and the results aren't good. He's got four major busts - Manny, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones - who together cost the organization well over $150 Million. And, while Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda, and Rafael Furcal have all earned their money, they haven't exactly been bargains.
Colletti isn't going to survive close scrutiny by the "new" administration, whomever that is, unless he can demonstrate that 2010 was just a blip on the radar. He needs to get competitive again, right away. The flurry of activity in Los Angeles early in the Hot Stove season suggests Colletti's well aware of that fact. It took him less than a month to shore up his 2011 rotation behind young power arms Billingsley and Kershaw.
First, he resigned midseason acquisition Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33 Million deal that will take the junkballing control specialist into his late 30s. Lilly's prolonged durability (he's averaged 30 starts a season over the last eight years) and his soft-tossing style suggest he can continue to have success at that late age, much like Jamie Moyer has, so the length of the deal is defensible. In fact, considering how thin the pitching ranks are this winter, there's a strong likelihood Lilly could've gotten more had he tested the market.
Same goes for Hiroki Kuroda, who Colletti resigned for one year at $12 Million. Kuroda, coming of a season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, probably would've been viewed as the second or third best starter available, behind Cliff Lee, and certainly could've gotten a multiyear deal. However, Kuroda is comfortably in L.A. and seems to want to leave himself the option of returning to Japan in 2012, so he gave Colletti a hometown discount.
Finally, this past week Colletti finished an inexpensive deal for Jon Garland, coming off one of the best years of his career. Again, it seems likely Garland could've gotten more money or more years had he waited for the pitching market to develop, but he wanted to stay near his home in SoCal, so he took a $5 Million deal with an $8 Million option. The option kicks in automatically if Garland reaches 190 innings. Dodgers fans should be warned, he's reached that target every season since 2002, so this should be presumed to be a two-year, $13 Million deal.
All things considered, assuming Billingsley and Kershaw continue to progress towards being tandem Aces, this is a solid corps of starters. Garland and Lilly can definitely be termed "innings-eaters," as they've proved themselves extremely durable, which should help the Dodger bullpen, which has had a heavy workload the last couple seasons.
Colletti followed his rotational renovations with a somewhat controversial contract offer to veteran utilityman, Juan Uribe, who is coming off a resurgent tenure with the Dodgers archrival. Uribe helped the Giants by playing solid defense at several infield positions and providing some power as well, but he's definitely a risky investment at three years, $21 Million, which more than doubles what he was making in 2010. Uribe will probably start as the Dodgers everyday second-baseman, but could move to short or third in 2012, after Blake and Furcal are scheduled to become free agents. Uribe has a little thunder in his bat. He's a good bet for around 20 HR. But his career .300 OBP could make him a bit of a liability, especially in a lineup that is already short on patient hitters.
Most recently, Colletti elected to non-tender longtime catcher, Russell Martin, and middle reliever, George Sherrill, rather than offer them arbitration that could've cost as much as $15 Million. He replaced Sherrill with Blake Hawksworth, acquired in a trade with the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot. And, rumor has it, will soon replace Martin with Rod Barajas, probably for something like $2 Million in 2011. While Martin certainly has the talent to make the Dodgers regret this move, in the short-term it gives Colletti some flexibility. Even after the signing outlined above and potentially expensive arbitration hearings with Billingsley, Loney, and Kuo, the Dodgers should still be $3-5 Million under their payroll from 2010.
As noted above, I believe Colletti is feeling the pressure to win in 2011, but, considering the Dodgers current investments (including around $20 Million still due to Ramirez, Jones, and Pierre next year) and the McCourt "situation" there is little chance they can get into the bidding on Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or even Paul Konerko. This leaves Colletti with a difficult decision. The 2010 roster that finished in fourth place in the NL West was not that different from the one that went to the NLCS in each of the previous seasons. Unfortunately, much of the young talent regressed substantially last year, especially Kemp, Loney, and Broxton. One could very easily speculate that they will return to form in 2011, which could be enough to get the Dodgers right back in the thick of it. However, it also could be that Ethier, Kemp, and Loney are not ready to carry the offense by themselves and need a veteran slugger (like Manny) to take some of the pressure off.
Colletti could probably go get such a player via trade, but it might mean mortgaging the future. Prince Fielder would certainly fit the bill, but would definitely cost the team Loney and a couple of top prospects and he would almost certainly be unsignable a year from now. But if the Dodgers go to the playoffs, thereby protecting Colletti's job, wouldn't it be worth it? To Colletti at least?
On the other hand, Colletti could look to some of the riskier trade candidates like Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham. Such players could probably be had without decimating the farm system, but there is a much higher likelihood they could be busts, either due to injuries or ineffectiveness.
The fact is, time is running short for this incarnation of the Dodgers. Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Loney, Billingsley, and Kuo will all be free agents by the end of the 2012 season. Considering how much success this cast of players had very early in their careers, anything short of a World Series appearance would have to be considered a failure. If they don't get within striking distance of that goal in 2011, I expect the blame game to begin. First-year manager Don Mattingly will probably get a pass. Colletti will not. It's time for him to prove that he's not just another example of Frank McCourt's incompetence.
Sure, Colletti's got a few things to hang his hat on. The Dodgers have been to the playoffs three times in his five years as GM, and advanced all the way to the NLCS on two of those occasions. He masterminded the acquisition of Manny Ramirez, which was wildly successful...until it wasn't, but he hardly could've foreseen Manny's suspension and rapid decline. He brought in Joe Torre, who was the most popular Dodger manager since Tommy Lasorda. And, he's proved himself an aggressive wheeler and dealer, trading for helpful players like Casey Blake, Ron Belliard, Jim Thome, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, etc. at times when they were needed to fill key roles and he never gave up a whole lot in return.
Of course, underlying the solid track record of success on the field is the open secret among the Dodger faithful; most of the talent responsible for the deep runs in 2008 and 2009 came from the tenures of Coletti's predecessors, Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jonathan Broxton were all drafted (or signed) prior to Colletti's arrival in 2006. It's probably too early to fairly evaluate Colletti's drafting and development record, but his only pick to pan out thusfar is Clayton Kershaw.
As for Colletti's record in free agency, that's very easy to address, and the results aren't good. He's got four major busts - Manny, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones - who together cost the organization well over $150 Million. And, while Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda, and Rafael Furcal have all earned their money, they haven't exactly been bargains.
Colletti isn't going to survive close scrutiny by the "new" administration, whomever that is, unless he can demonstrate that 2010 was just a blip on the radar. He needs to get competitive again, right away. The flurry of activity in Los Angeles early in the Hot Stove season suggests Colletti's well aware of that fact. It took him less than a month to shore up his 2011 rotation behind young power arms Billingsley and Kershaw.
First, he resigned midseason acquisition Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33 Million deal that will take the junkballing control specialist into his late 30s. Lilly's prolonged durability (he's averaged 30 starts a season over the last eight years) and his soft-tossing style suggest he can continue to have success at that late age, much like Jamie Moyer has, so the length of the deal is defensible. In fact, considering how thin the pitching ranks are this winter, there's a strong likelihood Lilly could've gotten more had he tested the market.
Same goes for Hiroki Kuroda, who Colletti resigned for one year at $12 Million. Kuroda, coming of a season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, probably would've been viewed as the second or third best starter available, behind Cliff Lee, and certainly could've gotten a multiyear deal. However, Kuroda is comfortably in L.A. and seems to want to leave himself the option of returning to Japan in 2012, so he gave Colletti a hometown discount.
Finally, this past week Colletti finished an inexpensive deal for Jon Garland, coming off one of the best years of his career. Again, it seems likely Garland could've gotten more money or more years had he waited for the pitching market to develop, but he wanted to stay near his home in SoCal, so he took a $5 Million deal with an $8 Million option. The option kicks in automatically if Garland reaches 190 innings. Dodgers fans should be warned, he's reached that target every season since 2002, so this should be presumed to be a two-year, $13 Million deal.
All things considered, assuming Billingsley and Kershaw continue to progress towards being tandem Aces, this is a solid corps of starters. Garland and Lilly can definitely be termed "innings-eaters," as they've proved themselves extremely durable, which should help the Dodger bullpen, which has had a heavy workload the last couple seasons.
Colletti followed his rotational renovations with a somewhat controversial contract offer to veteran utilityman, Juan Uribe, who is coming off a resurgent tenure with the Dodgers archrival. Uribe helped the Giants by playing solid defense at several infield positions and providing some power as well, but he's definitely a risky investment at three years, $21 Million, which more than doubles what he was making in 2010. Uribe will probably start as the Dodgers everyday second-baseman, but could move to short or third in 2012, after Blake and Furcal are scheduled to become free agents. Uribe has a little thunder in his bat. He's a good bet for around 20 HR. But his career .300 OBP could make him a bit of a liability, especially in a lineup that is already short on patient hitters.
Most recently, Colletti elected to non-tender longtime catcher, Russell Martin, and middle reliever, George Sherrill, rather than offer them arbitration that could've cost as much as $15 Million. He replaced Sherrill with Blake Hawksworth, acquired in a trade with the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot. And, rumor has it, will soon replace Martin with Rod Barajas, probably for something like $2 Million in 2011. While Martin certainly has the talent to make the Dodgers regret this move, in the short-term it gives Colletti some flexibility. Even after the signing outlined above and potentially expensive arbitration hearings with Billingsley, Loney, and Kuo, the Dodgers should still be $3-5 Million under their payroll from 2010.
As noted above, I believe Colletti is feeling the pressure to win in 2011, but, considering the Dodgers current investments (including around $20 Million still due to Ramirez, Jones, and Pierre next year) and the McCourt "situation" there is little chance they can get into the bidding on Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or even Paul Konerko. This leaves Colletti with a difficult decision. The 2010 roster that finished in fourth place in the NL West was not that different from the one that went to the NLCS in each of the previous seasons. Unfortunately, much of the young talent regressed substantially last year, especially Kemp, Loney, and Broxton. One could very easily speculate that they will return to form in 2011, which could be enough to get the Dodgers right back in the thick of it. However, it also could be that Ethier, Kemp, and Loney are not ready to carry the offense by themselves and need a veteran slugger (like Manny) to take some of the pressure off.
Colletti could probably go get such a player via trade, but it might mean mortgaging the future. Prince Fielder would certainly fit the bill, but would definitely cost the team Loney and a couple of top prospects and he would almost certainly be unsignable a year from now. But if the Dodgers go to the playoffs, thereby protecting Colletti's job, wouldn't it be worth it? To Colletti at least?
On the other hand, Colletti could look to some of the riskier trade candidates like Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham. Such players could probably be had without decimating the farm system, but there is a much higher likelihood they could be busts, either due to injuries or ineffectiveness.
The fact is, time is running short for this incarnation of the Dodgers. Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Loney, Billingsley, and Kuo will all be free agents by the end of the 2012 season. Considering how much success this cast of players had very early in their careers, anything short of a World Series appearance would have to be considered a failure. If they don't get within striking distance of that goal in 2011, I expect the blame game to begin. First-year manager Don Mattingly will probably get a pass. Colletti will not. It's time for him to prove that he's not just another example of Frank McCourt's incompetence.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
The SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (a.k.a. More Bad News For Mets Fans)
Due to my hectic summer, I haven't made an S.S.S. update for several months, but with one of the game's most prominent pitchers, Johan Santana, going under the knife, I thought it was probably an appropriate time to renew our discussion. (To track how this all began, you can go here.)
I'm going to start with the good news.
The 2010 poster-child for shoulder rehabilitation has to be Ted Lilly. Lilly was back on a major-league mound approximately seven months after having his "frayed labrum" repaired and before long he was again among the most dependent, durable, and underrated pitchers in the National League. His record for 2010 is just 8-11, due in large part to playing on a pair of teams (Cubs & Dodgers) which seem to be coming apart at the seems. Lilly's overall numbers are solid (3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 141 K, 172 IP) and very similar to what he posted immediately preceding the operation (3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 151 K, 177 IP). Lilly may be showing a little fatigue. He began his tenure with the Dodgers by winning his first five starts, but is 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last four. One could speculate that this is a result of a diminished strength-building routine following the surgery last offseason, but it could also merely be the result of natural tendency towards indifference bred of being a veteran on a team that no longer has a shot at the postseason. This rough stretch aside, however, Lilly has done plenty to prove that the injury should not effect his bargaining position when he hits the free agent market this winter.
There have also been positive developments from Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman missed well over a year following his surgery, in part because he re-injured the shoulder trying to make too quick a return. A note of caution to Santana and the Mets: Bonderman's injury was not unlike that which Johan recently suffered and, in general, there is a tendency toward re-injury following these surgeries. Bonderman struggled getting back into sync following his long layoff, posting a 6.97 ERA in April, but has steadily improved over the course of the season. Since May 1, he's 7-8 with a 4.75 ERA. That's still a far cry from the pitcher who helped the Tigers get to the World Series a few years back, but there have been glimpses of that former glory. Last week he shut down the White Sox for eight innings, allowing only three hits and striking out eight. Perhaps this is a flash of what we can expect from a fully recovered Bonderman in 2011? If not, he has still proven himself to be capable of being a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Freddy Garcia played a similar role for the White Sox this season, his first full year since having his labrum repaired way back in 2007. Garcia posted a strong record, 11-6, for the ChiSox, but with modest overall numbers (4.88 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 83 K, 144 IP) before being shut down earlier this month due to an unrelated back injury. It's apparent that, at 36, Garcia will never be the Ace he was earlier in his career, but he did manage sixteen quality starts (62%) in 2010. You might be surprised to find that's more than All-Stars like Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes.
Nagging injuries were a prevalent issue for our survey participants, perhaps no surprise considering the long period spent away from the game following their operations. Not only could it effect their endurance, but also potentially their mechanics. Reports out of Colorado this preseason suggested that Jeff Francis was having to completely relearn his delivery. Francis continued to feel "tightness" in his pitching shoulder even after his return in mid-May, which forced him back to the D.L. after about half a season of work. In his 17 starts he has been, much like Bonderman and Garcia, respectable but unspectacular (4-5, 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 96 IP). He's mixed in a couple of gems (for instance, seven innings of three-hit ball against Florida in July), but also failed to get past the third inning on two occasions. The Rockies are expecting him to take over Aaron Cook's spot in the rotation for the next two weeks. We'll see whether he can rise to the occasion following a month of rest.
Sadly, considering how modest these results are, that's the end of the "good" news. Of the eight players we began tracking at the beginning of the season, only these four managed to make it back to the mound in 2010. The Mariners were cautiously optimistic that Erik Bedard would be ready by the All-Star Break, but he also fell victim to the urgency of his rehab and ended up having a "setback" which resulted in yet another surgery, this time to remove a bone spur. As yet, there's still no timetable for his return. The same can be said of Brandon Webb and Chien-Ming Wang, two other former All-Stars who may never fully recover from their injuries. Webb is tentatively hoping to make a couple of relief appearances before the end of the season, but the D-Backs have been slow to confirm that report. Having now missed almost two full seasons, it is impossible to predict what the former Cy Young winner will look like if he is indeed ready for Opening Day in 2011. The future of Wang, the former Yankee Ace, is even more uncertain. Same for Dustin McGowan, the promising young Blue Jays starter, who also had an additional surgery in June and is unlikely to be ready in time for Opening Day 2011.
All told, that's a pretty dismal picture of Johan's prospects. Of these eight pitchers, seven of them missed a season or more rehabbing after surgery. Of the four who have made it back to the mound, only one has come anywhere near his previous level of effectiveness. While Santana isn't dealing with major labrum or rotator cuff repairs, the "torn capsule" is the same thing which Bonderman and Wang were treated for, and both missed well over a season. It would be wise, based on this track record, if the Mets reconsidered their intentions of trying to have him ready in the first half of 2011. That seems fairly far-fetched. And, as we saw with several of these cases, the urgency to return can actually prolong and exacerbate the injury, even to the point to requiring additional surgery. I would not expect Santana to be ready before August of next year. Even then it is unlikely he will immediately pitch like an Ace. Unfortunately, he may never again look like the perennial Cy Young candidate we've come to expect.
I'm going to start with the good news.
The 2010 poster-child for shoulder rehabilitation has to be Ted Lilly. Lilly was back on a major-league mound approximately seven months after having his "frayed labrum" repaired and before long he was again among the most dependent, durable, and underrated pitchers in the National League. His record for 2010 is just 8-11, due in large part to playing on a pair of teams (Cubs & Dodgers) which seem to be coming apart at the seems. Lilly's overall numbers are solid (3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 141 K, 172 IP) and very similar to what he posted immediately preceding the operation (3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 151 K, 177 IP). Lilly may be showing a little fatigue. He began his tenure with the Dodgers by winning his first five starts, but is 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last four. One could speculate that this is a result of a diminished strength-building routine following the surgery last offseason, but it could also merely be the result of natural tendency towards indifference bred of being a veteran on a team that no longer has a shot at the postseason. This rough stretch aside, however, Lilly has done plenty to prove that the injury should not effect his bargaining position when he hits the free agent market this winter.
There have also been positive developments from Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman missed well over a year following his surgery, in part because he re-injured the shoulder trying to make too quick a return. A note of caution to Santana and the Mets: Bonderman's injury was not unlike that which Johan recently suffered and, in general, there is a tendency toward re-injury following these surgeries. Bonderman struggled getting back into sync following his long layoff, posting a 6.97 ERA in April, but has steadily improved over the course of the season. Since May 1, he's 7-8 with a 4.75 ERA. That's still a far cry from the pitcher who helped the Tigers get to the World Series a few years back, but there have been glimpses of that former glory. Last week he shut down the White Sox for eight innings, allowing only three hits and striking out eight. Perhaps this is a flash of what we can expect from a fully recovered Bonderman in 2011? If not, he has still proven himself to be capable of being a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Freddy Garcia played a similar role for the White Sox this season, his first full year since having his labrum repaired way back in 2007. Garcia posted a strong record, 11-6, for the ChiSox, but with modest overall numbers (4.88 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 83 K, 144 IP) before being shut down earlier this month due to an unrelated back injury. It's apparent that, at 36, Garcia will never be the Ace he was earlier in his career, but he did manage sixteen quality starts (62%) in 2010. You might be surprised to find that's more than All-Stars like Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes.
Nagging injuries were a prevalent issue for our survey participants, perhaps no surprise considering the long period spent away from the game following their operations. Not only could it effect their endurance, but also potentially their mechanics. Reports out of Colorado this preseason suggested that Jeff Francis was having to completely relearn his delivery. Francis continued to feel "tightness" in his pitching shoulder even after his return in mid-May, which forced him back to the D.L. after about half a season of work. In his 17 starts he has been, much like Bonderman and Garcia, respectable but unspectacular (4-5, 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 96 IP). He's mixed in a couple of gems (for instance, seven innings of three-hit ball against Florida in July), but also failed to get past the third inning on two occasions. The Rockies are expecting him to take over Aaron Cook's spot in the rotation for the next two weeks. We'll see whether he can rise to the occasion following a month of rest.
Sadly, considering how modest these results are, that's the end of the "good" news. Of the eight players we began tracking at the beginning of the season, only these four managed to make it back to the mound in 2010. The Mariners were cautiously optimistic that Erik Bedard would be ready by the All-Star Break, but he also fell victim to the urgency of his rehab and ended up having a "setback" which resulted in yet another surgery, this time to remove a bone spur. As yet, there's still no timetable for his return. The same can be said of Brandon Webb and Chien-Ming Wang, two other former All-Stars who may never fully recover from their injuries. Webb is tentatively hoping to make a couple of relief appearances before the end of the season, but the D-Backs have been slow to confirm that report. Having now missed almost two full seasons, it is impossible to predict what the former Cy Young winner will look like if he is indeed ready for Opening Day in 2011. The future of Wang, the former Yankee Ace, is even more uncertain. Same for Dustin McGowan, the promising young Blue Jays starter, who also had an additional surgery in June and is unlikely to be ready in time for Opening Day 2011.
All told, that's a pretty dismal picture of Johan's prospects. Of these eight pitchers, seven of them missed a season or more rehabbing after surgery. Of the four who have made it back to the mound, only one has come anywhere near his previous level of effectiveness. While Santana isn't dealing with major labrum or rotator cuff repairs, the "torn capsule" is the same thing which Bonderman and Wang were treated for, and both missed well over a season. It would be wise, based on this track record, if the Mets reconsidered their intentions of trying to have him ready in the first half of 2011. That seems fairly far-fetched. And, as we saw with several of these cases, the urgency to return can actually prolong and exacerbate the injury, even to the point to requiring additional surgery. I would not expect Santana to be ready before August of next year. Even then it is unlikely he will immediately pitch like an Ace. Unfortunately, he may never again look like the perennial Cy Young candidate we've come to expect.
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Second & Final Cubs Post of the 2010 Season
Cubs fandom is the best modern analogy for the Greek conception of eternal suffering. Like Prometheus, I am forever bound to them, with the knowledge that whether in April or October, every year a giant bird, strongly resembling Steve Stone, is going to voraciously feast upon my liver, cackling with delight. Cubs fans are possessed of a Sisyphean fortitude (what Einstein would call madness) as every year we tremble in anticipation of a result different from the hundred and one which came before. Cubs fans have been so perverted by their own masochistic experience of fandom that they cannot imagine rooting for a team like the Yankees or the Braves. Our entire conception of sport is rooted in misery. We prefer the Clippers, the Bills, Andy Roddick, and the French military.
Usually I wait until at least August to declare the season kaputt. This year, it was over almost before it began. The worse part of it is that Jim Hendry might actually keep his job. I berated him throughout the offseason and I stand by my fury, but the half-season results of his recent acquisitions are pretty damn stellar. Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley looks like a heist. Marlon Byrd has been the Cubs best player. It might be nice to have Jake Fox right now, considering the Cubs lack of pop, but he didn't exactly play gangbusters in Oakland, and has since been shipped to Baltimore, while Matt Spencer has played fairly well in AA.
Hendry certainly can't be blamed for the unforeseeable decline of Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, the utter breakdown of Carlos Zambrano, or the fact that the Cubs had a pretty tough interleague draw. Hopefully, the Cubs new ownership will able to see past Hendry's recent good fortune. He ignored a problem of morale and leadership which had existed before the arrival of Milton Bradley, and has only gotten worse since his departure. He annually over-invested in players with sever and obvious limitations, especially in terms of age, platoon splits, and defensive acumen. With one of the best revenue streams in all of professional sport, including a budget at the very top of his league, he has managed just three playoff appearances in nine seasons, has an overall record of 688-686, and, most importantly, he hasn't broken the curse.
It's not just Hendry, either. Anybody with the slightest hint of objectivity can see that it's time to blow the whole thing up. Thanks for the memories and all, but good riddance. Pinella has lost the clubhouse and maybe his edge. D-Lee, even if he repeats his second-half surge from a season ago, is now just one of those aging first-basemen who are among the most plentiful free agent commodities every offseason (see Huff, Aubrey; Glaus, Troy; etc.). Big Z needs a fresh start, although it will probably mean eating some salary and getting very little in return. Fukudome should be given away, maybe even released. Anybody who's over 30 and can be traded, should be traded. Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee could both fetch a decent return from pennant contenders, even though they will only be two-month rentals. If not, the Cubs can hold them and take the draft picks when they hit free agency.
The good news is, when the smoke clears and the dust settles, whether it is later this season or next spring, the Cubs actually have a decent young core to build on. They clearly rushed Starlin Castro, but his potential is evident, and he could do next year what Elvis Andrus is doing for Texas this year, which is being a very, very good defender and leadoff hitter. Andrew Cashner has looked promising coming out of the bullpen and might get a few starts in the second half. Combined with Silva, Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster, the Cubs have the makings of a rag-tag rotation. Tyler Colvin has been better than anybody expected. Geovany Soto is among the best backstops in the National League. Carlos Marmol is one of the best closers in the game. Josh Vitters is probably two years away, but Brett Jackson could get a cup of coffee in September, based on his 959 OPS split between A and AA, and might take over as a regular by the middle of 2011.
Even if they have to eat a sizable chunk of the money due to Zambrano and Fukudome, the Cubs should could still enter this offseason with more flexibility than they've had for several seasons. Lee and Lilly alone are making $25 Million, Pinella another $10 Million. The Cubs can use some of that money to fill in the gaps, but should probably plan on treating 2011 as a rebuilding season, which will take a little of the pressure off first-time manager, Ryne Sandberg. Then, when Ramirez, Fukudome, and Silva open up another $40 Million the following year, they'll be primed to compete for a stellar class of free agents in 2012, one that could include Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Corey Hart, Carlos Beltran, and many more.
And a man with a striking resemblance to Ron Santo begins pushing his red, white, and blue boulder back up the hill.
Usually I wait until at least August to declare the season kaputt. This year, it was over almost before it began. The worse part of it is that Jim Hendry might actually keep his job. I berated him throughout the offseason and I stand by my fury, but the half-season results of his recent acquisitions are pretty damn stellar. Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley looks like a heist. Marlon Byrd has been the Cubs best player. It might be nice to have Jake Fox right now, considering the Cubs lack of pop, but he didn't exactly play gangbusters in Oakland, and has since been shipped to Baltimore, while Matt Spencer has played fairly well in AA.
Hendry certainly can't be blamed for the unforeseeable decline of Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, the utter breakdown of Carlos Zambrano, or the fact that the Cubs had a pretty tough interleague draw. Hopefully, the Cubs new ownership will able to see past Hendry's recent good fortune. He ignored a problem of morale and leadership which had existed before the arrival of Milton Bradley, and has only gotten worse since his departure. He annually over-invested in players with sever and obvious limitations, especially in terms of age, platoon splits, and defensive acumen. With one of the best revenue streams in all of professional sport, including a budget at the very top of his league, he has managed just three playoff appearances in nine seasons, has an overall record of 688-686, and, most importantly, he hasn't broken the curse.
It's not just Hendry, either. Anybody with the slightest hint of objectivity can see that it's time to blow the whole thing up. Thanks for the memories and all, but good riddance. Pinella has lost the clubhouse and maybe his edge. D-Lee, even if he repeats his second-half surge from a season ago, is now just one of those aging first-basemen who are among the most plentiful free agent commodities every offseason (see Huff, Aubrey; Glaus, Troy; etc.). Big Z needs a fresh start, although it will probably mean eating some salary and getting very little in return. Fukudome should be given away, maybe even released. Anybody who's over 30 and can be traded, should be traded. Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee could both fetch a decent return from pennant contenders, even though they will only be two-month rentals. If not, the Cubs can hold them and take the draft picks when they hit free agency.
The good news is, when the smoke clears and the dust settles, whether it is later this season or next spring, the Cubs actually have a decent young core to build on. They clearly rushed Starlin Castro, but his potential is evident, and he could do next year what Elvis Andrus is doing for Texas this year, which is being a very, very good defender and leadoff hitter. Andrew Cashner has looked promising coming out of the bullpen and might get a few starts in the second half. Combined with Silva, Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster, the Cubs have the makings of a rag-tag rotation. Tyler Colvin has been better than anybody expected. Geovany Soto is among the best backstops in the National League. Carlos Marmol is one of the best closers in the game. Josh Vitters is probably two years away, but Brett Jackson could get a cup of coffee in September, based on his 959 OPS split between A and AA, and might take over as a regular by the middle of 2011.
Even if they have to eat a sizable chunk of the money due to Zambrano and Fukudome, the Cubs should could still enter this offseason with more flexibility than they've had for several seasons. Lee and Lilly alone are making $25 Million, Pinella another $10 Million. The Cubs can use some of that money to fill in the gaps, but should probably plan on treating 2011 as a rebuilding season, which will take a little of the pressure off first-time manager, Ryne Sandberg. Then, when Ramirez, Fukudome, and Silva open up another $40 Million the following year, they'll be primed to compete for a stellar class of free agents in 2012, one that could include Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Corey Hart, Carlos Beltran, and many more.
And a man with a striking resemblance to Ron Santo begins pushing his red, white, and blue boulder back up the hill.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (May)
In honor of Jeff Francis's return to the mound, I'm providing the fourth installment in my 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey. The cast of active participants increased by one this afternoon, as Francis squared off with the Nationals. It was Francis' first start since September of 2008.
Much like Brandon Webb, Francis entered Spring Training with the intent of being ready for Opening Day. Unfortunately, his progress stalled and was complicated by an unrelated injury to his back, thus delaying him by about six weeks. The Rockies were cautious with his rehab, so he arrived in Colorado prepared to throw around 100 pitches.
Although it's been twenty months since his last appearance, in this start it looked like he'd never left. He allowed a couple hits, a walk, and a run in the first inning, but Francis, like many soft-tossing lefties, has always tended to struggle in the opening frame (6.37 career ERA, his highest for any inning). Thereafter, he settled in and allowed only five hits, a walk, and no runs over the next six. He also struck out six. Francis mixed in all four of his pitches (fastball, changeup, sligder, curve) and touched 91 MPH, although he was more consistently in the 88-89 range. In the seventh, possibly tiring, Francis gave up two singles to start the inning, but was able to strand them by getting a pair of strikeouts and a pop-up. He induced nine groundballs, including a key double-play to end the sixth.
The Rockies need Francis to pitch like he did today, as they are still without their #2 starter, Jorge De La Rosa and haven't gotten much from either Aaron Cook (1-3, 5.80 ERA) or Jason Hammel (1-2, 7.71 ERA). If Francis can eat some innings, it will help take the pressure of Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, and the bullpen, which has been among the best in the NL (117 IP, 3.08 ERA).
This afternoon also featured the fourth start of the season from Ted Lilly, another member of the S.S.S. roster. Lilly managed seven strong innings, allowing six hits, three walks, and three earned runs. Like Francis, he took a no-decision, but his team did end up with the win. It clearly took Lilly a couple outings to shake off the rust, but he's been building up his pitch counts and has quality starts in each of his last two games. There's little reason to believe that he isn't prepared to be the same dependable top-of-the-rotation starter he has been for the Cubs since they signed him.
A very similar scenario is developing across town, as Freddy Garcia has started to really round into form. He's 2-0 in May with a 2.77 ERA, after going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in April. He'll be tested a little this coming week, as he'll take the mound against the division rival Tigers and the Florida Marlins, who have some thunder and are on a bit of a hot streak (swept the Mets in a four-game series, won six of their last seven). Ozzie Guillen has been a little conservative with Garcia, who has only thrown 100+ pitches once so far, but he's still be able to go at least six innings in five of six outings, which speaks well for his efficiency.
Jeremy Bonderman has also shown a dramatic improvement since the calender turned. He's had bad luck in terms of decisions (0-1), but has posted a 2.08 ERA in his last fourteen innings and has clearly regained his control, giving up just one free pass over that span. The Tigers are no doubt a bit concerned with his velocity. His average fastball speed so far this season is 89.5 MPH, significantly lower than his career mark of 92.5 MPH. In his last start, an excellent seven-inning outing against the Yankees, Bonderman topped out a 93 MPH and pitched consistently in the 89-90 range. This, coming from a guy who at one time could occasionally reach the upper nineties. Certainly, Bonderman has enough movement, control, and variety in his pitches to be effective even with lowered velocity, but the Tigers have pushed back his next start, perhaps partly to see if his arm will be at all rejuvenated by a full week of rest.
Of the eight members of our survey, those are the only four who have pitched in the majors thusfar in 2010. Of the guys remaining on the D.L., Erik Bedard is probably the closest to joining a rotation. He has progressed much faster than expected and the Mariners expect him to start throwing off the mound within a week, which still puts his return date somewhere around a month away. Brandon Webb is throwing from flat ground, but as yet there's no timetable for rehabbing him into pitching shape, so an All-Star Break return seems optimistic. The Nationals have set a tentative date for Chien-Ming Wang debut at July 1st. Finally, Dustin McGowan, the Blue Jays youngster, who had perhaps the most serious injury of any of our participants, is still working primarily on a strengthening program. No timetable has been set, and with many young Jays pitchers performing well, there seems no reason to rush him. It seems to me only about 50/50 that McGowan pitches this season.
Much like Brandon Webb, Francis entered Spring Training with the intent of being ready for Opening Day. Unfortunately, his progress stalled and was complicated by an unrelated injury to his back, thus delaying him by about six weeks. The Rockies were cautious with his rehab, so he arrived in Colorado prepared to throw around 100 pitches.
Although it's been twenty months since his last appearance, in this start it looked like he'd never left. He allowed a couple hits, a walk, and a run in the first inning, but Francis, like many soft-tossing lefties, has always tended to struggle in the opening frame (6.37 career ERA, his highest for any inning). Thereafter, he settled in and allowed only five hits, a walk, and no runs over the next six. He also struck out six. Francis mixed in all four of his pitches (fastball, changeup, sligder, curve) and touched 91 MPH, although he was more consistently in the 88-89 range. In the seventh, possibly tiring, Francis gave up two singles to start the inning, but was able to strand them by getting a pair of strikeouts and a pop-up. He induced nine groundballs, including a key double-play to end the sixth.
The Rockies need Francis to pitch like he did today, as they are still without their #2 starter, Jorge De La Rosa and haven't gotten much from either Aaron Cook (1-3, 5.80 ERA) or Jason Hammel (1-2, 7.71 ERA). If Francis can eat some innings, it will help take the pressure of Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, and the bullpen, which has been among the best in the NL (117 IP, 3.08 ERA).
This afternoon also featured the fourth start of the season from Ted Lilly, another member of the S.S.S. roster. Lilly managed seven strong innings, allowing six hits, three walks, and three earned runs. Like Francis, he took a no-decision, but his team did end up with the win. It clearly took Lilly a couple outings to shake off the rust, but he's been building up his pitch counts and has quality starts in each of his last two games. There's little reason to believe that he isn't prepared to be the same dependable top-of-the-rotation starter he has been for the Cubs since they signed him.
A very similar scenario is developing across town, as Freddy Garcia has started to really round into form. He's 2-0 in May with a 2.77 ERA, after going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in April. He'll be tested a little this coming week, as he'll take the mound against the division rival Tigers and the Florida Marlins, who have some thunder and are on a bit of a hot streak (swept the Mets in a four-game series, won six of their last seven). Ozzie Guillen has been a little conservative with Garcia, who has only thrown 100+ pitches once so far, but he's still be able to go at least six innings in five of six outings, which speaks well for his efficiency.
Jeremy Bonderman has also shown a dramatic improvement since the calender turned. He's had bad luck in terms of decisions (0-1), but has posted a 2.08 ERA in his last fourteen innings and has clearly regained his control, giving up just one free pass over that span. The Tigers are no doubt a bit concerned with his velocity. His average fastball speed so far this season is 89.5 MPH, significantly lower than his career mark of 92.5 MPH. In his last start, an excellent seven-inning outing against the Yankees, Bonderman topped out a 93 MPH and pitched consistently in the 89-90 range. This, coming from a guy who at one time could occasionally reach the upper nineties. Certainly, Bonderman has enough movement, control, and variety in his pitches to be effective even with lowered velocity, but the Tigers have pushed back his next start, perhaps partly to see if his arm will be at all rejuvenated by a full week of rest.
Of the eight members of our survey, those are the only four who have pitched in the majors thusfar in 2010. Of the guys remaining on the D.L., Erik Bedard is probably the closest to joining a rotation. He has progressed much faster than expected and the Mariners expect him to start throwing off the mound within a week, which still puts his return date somewhere around a month away. Brandon Webb is throwing from flat ground, but as yet there's no timetable for rehabbing him into pitching shape, so an All-Star Break return seems optimistic. The Nationals have set a tentative date for Chien-Ming Wang debut at July 1st. Finally, Dustin McGowan, the Blue Jays youngster, who had perhaps the most serious injury of any of our participants, is still working primarily on a strengthening program. No timetable has been set, and with many young Jays pitchers performing well, there seems no reason to rush him. It seems to me only about 50/50 that McGowan pitches this season.
Monday, March 22, 2010
SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (March)
About a month ago I outlined my intentions to follow the trials and tribulations of eight starting pitchers attempting to return from shoulder surgeries in 2010. We have gotten off to an auspicious start. When Spring Training began, at least six of our eight participants were aiming to make the Opening Day roster. Now, with the regular season about two weeks away, that number is falling fast.
Brandon Webb, the most notable pitcher in the group, complained in early March that he felt "stagnant." Unable to build upon his early progress, he has resigned himself to opening the season on the D.L. and is aiming for a late April return, at the earliest.
Chien-Ming Wang, another former Ace, trying to make a comeback with the Nationals, threw his first bullpen session on Wednesday. While reports were very positive regarding Wang's control and the movement on his sinker, two concerns following his disastrous '09 season, the timetable for his return has been tentatively set for early May. With Stephen Strasburg headed to the minors and Wang joining Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman on the D.L., the Nats are forced to audition guys like Garrett Mock and J. D. Martin for the rotation.
Ted Lilly, whose surgery this offseason was supposed to be "routine," suffered a couple early setbacks and has yet to appear in a preseason game. He threw off the mound for the first time this week and is optimistic he could be ready by the middle of April. The Cubs don't need a fifth starter until April 19th.
Dustin McGowan made a Spring Training start on Friday, but as he surgery was more invasive than Lilly's his rehabilitation process is dramatically longer. Since Toronto is in rebuilding mode and have a number of starting pitchers who they'd like to have a long look at in 2010, they will not rush McGowan, who is certainly one of the most talented in the group. He was capable of throwing in the high 90s prior to the injury, but hadn't thrown a pitch for about eighteen months. He will build up his arm strength during an extended Spring Training, likely followed by a long rehab assignment working his way up through the Jays minor-league system. If all goes well, I'd bet on a June return to Toronto.
Erik Bedard, who the Mariners re-signed with the full knowledge that he was unlikely to return prior to June, has been cleared to throw his first bullpen session this week. Seattle GM, Jack Zduriencik, even speculates that Bedard may be a little ahead of schedule. However, I wouldn't put much stock in any diagnosis when Bedard has yet to throw off a mound. The Marines signed him hoping to get half a season. Hopefully, they'll stick with that timetable for his return.
While most of our roster won't make an active roster this April, there is some good news as well.
The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman has made four Spring Training appearances and is likely to make the Opening Day rotation. His overall numbers are skewed by a very rough outing in early March, but in his last two outing he's thrown a total of six innings, allowing eight hits and three earned runs, while walking two and striking out four. Bonderman is struggling to regain his control after missing most of the last two season, which is to be expected, but he's throwing the ball in the mid-nineties, an encouraging sign that he will could eventually regain the velocity he featured prior to surgery. The Tigers rotation hasn't been set, but Bonderman would probably make his first start against Cleveland in the Tigers first home series, April 9th through 11th.
Jeff Francis of the Rockies is also on schedule for an early April return. He's thrown nine innings so far this spring and is one schedule to throw 85-95 pitches in his first regular season start, which will likely be the Rockies home opener against San Diego on April 9th.
Finally, Freddy Garcia is on track to make his first start on the 11th against Minnesota. Garcia was able to make nine starts at the end of 2009 and is now more than two year removed from his surgery, so the White Sox haven't been treating the veteran with any kid gloves this spring, never questioning that he would be their #5 starter.
With the possible exception of Garcia, who the White Sox believe will be capable of pitching deep into games, as he did during his tenure with them from 2004 to 2006, most of these pitchers will be on strick pitch counts during the opening months. For Francis and Lilly, who have always made their livings pitching to contact, that shouldn't be a terrible problem. For Bonderman and McGowan, that could be a major adjustment, as both are strikeout artists who tend towards high pitch counts even when they are throwing well.
Brandon Webb, the most notable pitcher in the group, complained in early March that he felt "stagnant." Unable to build upon his early progress, he has resigned himself to opening the season on the D.L. and is aiming for a late April return, at the earliest.
Chien-Ming Wang, another former Ace, trying to make a comeback with the Nationals, threw his first bullpen session on Wednesday. While reports were very positive regarding Wang's control and the movement on his sinker, two concerns following his disastrous '09 season, the timetable for his return has been tentatively set for early May. With Stephen Strasburg headed to the minors and Wang joining Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman on the D.L., the Nats are forced to audition guys like Garrett Mock and J. D. Martin for the rotation.
Ted Lilly, whose surgery this offseason was supposed to be "routine," suffered a couple early setbacks and has yet to appear in a preseason game. He threw off the mound for the first time this week and is optimistic he could be ready by the middle of April. The Cubs don't need a fifth starter until April 19th.
Dustin McGowan made a Spring Training start on Friday, but as he surgery was more invasive than Lilly's his rehabilitation process is dramatically longer. Since Toronto is in rebuilding mode and have a number of starting pitchers who they'd like to have a long look at in 2010, they will not rush McGowan, who is certainly one of the most talented in the group. He was capable of throwing in the high 90s prior to the injury, but hadn't thrown a pitch for about eighteen months. He will build up his arm strength during an extended Spring Training, likely followed by a long rehab assignment working his way up through the Jays minor-league system. If all goes well, I'd bet on a June return to Toronto.
Erik Bedard, who the Mariners re-signed with the full knowledge that he was unlikely to return prior to June, has been cleared to throw his first bullpen session this week. Seattle GM, Jack Zduriencik, even speculates that Bedard may be a little ahead of schedule. However, I wouldn't put much stock in any diagnosis when Bedard has yet to throw off a mound. The Marines signed him hoping to get half a season. Hopefully, they'll stick with that timetable for his return.
While most of our roster won't make an active roster this April, there is some good news as well.
The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman has made four Spring Training appearances and is likely to make the Opening Day rotation. His overall numbers are skewed by a very rough outing in early March, but in his last two outing he's thrown a total of six innings, allowing eight hits and three earned runs, while walking two and striking out four. Bonderman is struggling to regain his control after missing most of the last two season, which is to be expected, but he's throwing the ball in the mid-nineties, an encouraging sign that he will could eventually regain the velocity he featured prior to surgery. The Tigers rotation hasn't been set, but Bonderman would probably make his first start against Cleveland in the Tigers first home series, April 9th through 11th.
Jeff Francis of the Rockies is also on schedule for an early April return. He's thrown nine innings so far this spring and is one schedule to throw 85-95 pitches in his first regular season start, which will likely be the Rockies home opener against San Diego on April 9th.
Finally, Freddy Garcia is on track to make his first start on the 11th against Minnesota. Garcia was able to make nine starts at the end of 2009 and is now more than two year removed from his surgery, so the White Sox haven't been treating the veteran with any kid gloves this spring, never questioning that he would be their #5 starter.
With the possible exception of Garcia, who the White Sox believe will be capable of pitching deep into games, as he did during his tenure with them from 2004 to 2006, most of these pitchers will be on strick pitch counts during the opening months. For Francis and Lilly, who have always made their livings pitching to contact, that shouldn't be a terrible problem. For Bonderman and McGowan, that could be a major adjustment, as both are strikeout artists who tend towards high pitch counts even when they are throwing well.
Friday, February 26, 2010
The Sporting Hippeaux's 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey
I've recently been participating in some preseason roundtables over at Inside Pulse Sports. Our discussion of the Arizona Diamondbacks, specifically Brandon Webb, prompted a little debate about the effectivity of shoulder surgeries. The conversations got me thinking, 2010 is going to be an important season for surgeons. Webb is just one of several notable pitchers who are returning to work after a major reconstructive surgery cost them the better part of the 2009 season.
In recent years, even the casual baseball fan has become familiar with "Tommy John surgery," the elbow operation which hundreds of major-leaguers have undergone. The procedure has become so effective that are even cases of pitchers increasing their velocity upon returning. Tim Hudson, Jake Westbrook, and Shaun Marcum are among the Tommy John recoverers who should be ready at the beginning of 2010.
Major shoulder injuries, on the other hand, are viewed as the death knell for pitchers. Randy Johnson's discovery that his rotator cuff was going to require surgery may well have been what prompted his decision to retire. Mark Prior had a shoulder replacement in 2007 and still hasn't made his way back to a big-league mound. Mark Mulder has been trying to make his way back from a 2007 operation, but has managed only a dozen innings (and not good ones, either). Shoulder injuries which required surgery also cut short the relatively promising careers of Matt Clement and Kris Benson. The list is goes on.
There have, however, been a few instances of full recovery. Pedro Martinez had to have his rotator cuff repaired in 2007 and while he struggled in 2008, his return to the mound last season with the Phillies was very successful. Chris Carpenter had his labrum repaired in 2002 and has since been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, winning a Cy Young in 2005. Al Leiter had both Tommy John and shoulder surgery in 1989, at the age of 23, and proceeded to have an excellent career. This experience helps lend a little credence to Leiter's prediction, as an MLB Network analyst, that Webb would be able to make a full recovery because he relies mainly on a sinker and has never needed an overpowering fastball (Leiter had a similar arsenal).
A 2008 study of orthopedic surgeons found that only about a third of professional players were able to achieve their pre-injury level of production following a major shoulder surgery. More than a third not only were unable to regain their former glory, but were forced into retirement. Elbow surgeries faired much better, with slightly more than half of the players returning to full strength or even improving. Sadly, it was still true that 30-40% of players were permanently effected to an extent that they were unable to continue to play. More recent surveys have the specific ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, known as "Tommy John," succeeding at a much higher rate, perhaps as high as 80-90%, though not every player gets a full recovery and the rehabilitation and strengthening process can be very lengthy.
Two years is a long time in terms of 21st-Century medical technology, so perhaps it's time for another look. Eight noteworthy pitchers with be returning from shoulder operations early in 2010. Throughout the season I'll be closely monitoring their progress and providing updates and analysis in hopes of understanding a little more about the long-term effects of this difficult and unpredictable procedure.
Here's our roster:
In recent years, even the casual baseball fan has become familiar with "Tommy John surgery," the elbow operation which hundreds of major-leaguers have undergone. The procedure has become so effective that are even cases of pitchers increasing their velocity upon returning. Tim Hudson, Jake Westbrook, and Shaun Marcum are among the Tommy John recoverers who should be ready at the beginning of 2010.
Major shoulder injuries, on the other hand, are viewed as the death knell for pitchers. Randy Johnson's discovery that his rotator cuff was going to require surgery may well have been what prompted his decision to retire. Mark Prior had a shoulder replacement in 2007 and still hasn't made his way back to a big-league mound. Mark Mulder has been trying to make his way back from a 2007 operation, but has managed only a dozen innings (and not good ones, either). Shoulder injuries which required surgery also cut short the relatively promising careers of Matt Clement and Kris Benson. The list is goes on.
There have, however, been a few instances of full recovery. Pedro Martinez had to have his rotator cuff repaired in 2007 and while he struggled in 2008, his return to the mound last season with the Phillies was very successful. Chris Carpenter had his labrum repaired in 2002 and has since been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, winning a Cy Young in 2005. Al Leiter had both Tommy John and shoulder surgery in 1989, at the age of 23, and proceeded to have an excellent career. This experience helps lend a little credence to Leiter's prediction, as an MLB Network analyst, that Webb would be able to make a full recovery because he relies mainly on a sinker and has never needed an overpowering fastball (Leiter had a similar arsenal).
A 2008 study of orthopedic surgeons found that only about a third of professional players were able to achieve their pre-injury level of production following a major shoulder surgery. More than a third not only were unable to regain their former glory, but were forced into retirement. Elbow surgeries faired much better, with slightly more than half of the players returning to full strength or even improving. Sadly, it was still true that 30-40% of players were permanently effected to an extent that they were unable to continue to play. More recent surveys have the specific ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, known as "Tommy John," succeeding at a much higher rate, perhaps as high as 80-90%, though not every player gets a full recovery and the rehabilitation and strengthening process can be very lengthy.
Two years is a long time in terms of 21st-Century medical technology, so perhaps it's time for another look. Eight noteworthy pitchers with be returning from shoulder operations early in 2010. Throughout the season I'll be closely monitoring their progress and providing updates and analysis in hopes of understanding a little more about the long-term effects of this difficult and unpredictable procedure.
Here's our roster:
Monday, August 27, 2007
Four Quartets
Cliff Floyd has come back from bereavement swinging a hot bat. Daryle Ward is healthy again, and proving to be a very hard out. And Jim Hendry performed some late-season general managing magic by procuring Craig Monroe, a powerful right-handed bat with pretty good defensive tools, to spell the popular slugger. Monroe hit five dingers in 50 postseason at-bats in 2006. Hopefully, he will murder left-handed pitching. While all of these are great developments for the Cubs as they face the home stretch, their fate lies squarely in the hands of fifteen key players. They don't have a Yankee-sized lineup or a Red Sox rotation, but in the NL Central, they have enough. If these four quartets gel, they could go deep into the postseason.
The Tenors: Jacque Jones - CF, Derrek Lee - 1B, Aramis Ramirez - 3B, Alfonso Soriano - LF
The Cubs middle-of-the-order sluggers averaged 30 HR apiece last year, even though Derrek Lee missed most of the season with a broken wrist. In 2005, they averaged 34 HR apiece. So far this season, none of them has hit more than 18 and with only 4 from Jones, they are on pace to average only 17 apiece. All of them have spent time on the DL in 2007. But regardless of lost time, there can't be any disputing that it is a troubling power outage. Nonetheless, the Cubs have remained in the pennant chase in the thoroughly mediocre NL Central. If these four get healthy and hot in the season's final month, they could catch a lot of teams by surprise. Jones seems to have already figured out what was ailing him during his awful first half. Since July 1, Jones is hitting .362 with a 962 OPS. (Literally, as I write this, Jones bashes a two-run blast into the wind to put the Cubs ahead of the Cardinals 2-1.) Lee found his power stroke in the second half. He's hit seven of his thirteen homers since the All-Star Break. However, his average has only been .260, thanks primarily to a .174 stretch during his last dozen games. Pitchers have been pounding the outside corner and for some reason D-Lee has been reluctant to go the other way. Lee is not likely to suffer a prolonged slump, but he and Ramirez need to be productive until Soriano returns in September. This quartet is not Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod, and Matsui. It isn't Granderson, Sheffield, Magglio, and Guillen. It isn't Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado. But it is the best foursome in competition for the NL Central title. The Brewers have Braun and Fielder. The Cardinals have Pujols and Rolen. But, neither team can string together four hitters as intimidating as the Cubs quartet. They need one good month.
Scrappy Strings: Ryan Theriot - SS, Mike Fontenot - 2B, Mark DeRosa - UT, Jason Kendall - C
This crew of sub-six-foot crackers has done as much to keep the Cubs afloat as the underperforming powerhouses above. Theriot is batting .321 with 15 runs in 18 games since Soriano went on the disabled list. Kendall is batting .304 with an 810 OPS since joining Chicago in mid-July. DeRosa is batting over .300 in each of the last three months and .386 on the season with two outs and runners in scoring position. He has provided all this offense while playing 10 games or more at four different positions. Fontenot hasn't found as many at-bats in the last month, but is still hitting .320 with men on base and has an 891 OPS at Wrigley Field, the "friendly confines" which has not been so friendly for many of the Cubs this season. This quartet is more than just spare parts. They keep innings alive. They play critical defensive positions. And they get better in the later innings of close games.
The Barbershop: Ryan Dempster, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood
The back end of the Cubs bullpen averages more than a strikeout per inning, led by the dynamic Carlos Marmol and his microscopic 1.58 ERA. All of these guys can bring it, quite clearly. The key down the stretch will be keeping Wood and Dempster healthy and not overusing the young Marmol. This is a bullpen that can shorten the game, but it improves considerably if Lou Pinella can come to trust Scott Eyre, Micheal Wuertz, Will Ohman, or Sean Gallagher in the middle innings of games which are still on the line.
Big Z & Trio: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall
You can't argue with the year Ted Lilly is having. However, Cubs fans should keep in mind that he was signed to fill the role of third or fourth starter, not #2. In his four full seasons, Lilly has never had an ERA under 4.06, a WHIP under 1.32, or more than 15 W. Generally, he hovers right around the league average for full-time starters. This year he has 13 W, a 3.85 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP in 27 starts. A mediocre September could have him finishing with numbers right in line with his career norms. I wouldn't bet against it. Like I said, Lilly at #3 is fine. Which means Rich Hill needs to step up and be what he was expected to be after his dynamite second half in 2006 (6-3, 2.92 ERA), a left-handed complement to the dominant Zambrano. Hill's only picked up two wins since the All-Star break in 2007, but there is room for encouragement. His ERA is 3.40 in his last 8 starts, including a seven inning, ten strikeout performance in his last outing. Marshall also needs to pick it up, seeing as it's about time Pinella took a page out of his good friend Tony LaRussa's book and left Jason Marquis out of the postseason rotation.
The Tenors: Jacque Jones - CF, Derrek Lee - 1B, Aramis Ramirez - 3B, Alfonso Soriano - LF
The Cubs middle-of-the-order sluggers averaged 30 HR apiece last year, even though Derrek Lee missed most of the season with a broken wrist. In 2005, they averaged 34 HR apiece. So far this season, none of them has hit more than 18 and with only 4 from Jones, they are on pace to average only 17 apiece. All of them have spent time on the DL in 2007. But regardless of lost time, there can't be any disputing that it is a troubling power outage. Nonetheless, the Cubs have remained in the pennant chase in the thoroughly mediocre NL Central. If these four get healthy and hot in the season's final month, they could catch a lot of teams by surprise. Jones seems to have already figured out what was ailing him during his awful first half. Since July 1, Jones is hitting .362 with a 962 OPS. (Literally, as I write this, Jones bashes a two-run blast into the wind to put the Cubs ahead of the Cardinals 2-1.) Lee found his power stroke in the second half. He's hit seven of his thirteen homers since the All-Star Break. However, his average has only been .260, thanks primarily to a .174 stretch during his last dozen games. Pitchers have been pounding the outside corner and for some reason D-Lee has been reluctant to go the other way. Lee is not likely to suffer a prolonged slump, but he and Ramirez need to be productive until Soriano returns in September. This quartet is not Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod, and Matsui. It isn't Granderson, Sheffield, Magglio, and Guillen. It isn't Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado. But it is the best foursome in competition for the NL Central title. The Brewers have Braun and Fielder. The Cardinals have Pujols and Rolen. But, neither team can string together four hitters as intimidating as the Cubs quartet. They need one good month.
Scrappy Strings: Ryan Theriot - SS, Mike Fontenot - 2B, Mark DeRosa - UT, Jason Kendall - C
This crew of sub-six-foot crackers has done as much to keep the Cubs afloat as the underperforming powerhouses above. Theriot is batting .321 with 15 runs in 18 games since Soriano went on the disabled list. Kendall is batting .304 with an 810 OPS since joining Chicago in mid-July. DeRosa is batting over .300 in each of the last three months and .386 on the season with two outs and runners in scoring position. He has provided all this offense while playing 10 games or more at four different positions. Fontenot hasn't found as many at-bats in the last month, but is still hitting .320 with men on base and has an 891 OPS at Wrigley Field, the "friendly confines" which has not been so friendly for many of the Cubs this season. This quartet is more than just spare parts. They keep innings alive. They play critical defensive positions. And they get better in the later innings of close games.
The Barbershop: Ryan Dempster, Carlos Marmol, Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood
The back end of the Cubs bullpen averages more than a strikeout per inning, led by the dynamic Carlos Marmol and his microscopic 1.58 ERA. All of these guys can bring it, quite clearly. The key down the stretch will be keeping Wood and Dempster healthy and not overusing the young Marmol. This is a bullpen that can shorten the game, but it improves considerably if Lou Pinella can come to trust Scott Eyre, Micheal Wuertz, Will Ohman, or Sean Gallagher in the middle innings of games which are still on the line.
Big Z & Trio: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall
You can't argue with the year Ted Lilly is having. However, Cubs fans should keep in mind that he was signed to fill the role of third or fourth starter, not #2. In his four full seasons, Lilly has never had an ERA under 4.06, a WHIP under 1.32, or more than 15 W. Generally, he hovers right around the league average for full-time starters. This year he has 13 W, a 3.85 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP in 27 starts. A mediocre September could have him finishing with numbers right in line with his career norms. I wouldn't bet against it. Like I said, Lilly at #3 is fine. Which means Rich Hill needs to step up and be what he was expected to be after his dynamite second half in 2006 (6-3, 2.92 ERA), a left-handed complement to the dominant Zambrano. Hill's only picked up two wins since the All-Star break in 2007, but there is room for encouragement. His ERA is 3.40 in his last 8 starts, including a seven inning, ten strikeout performance in his last outing. Marshall also needs to pick it up, seeing as it's about time Pinella took a page out of his good friend Tony LaRussa's book and left Jason Marquis out of the postseason rotation.
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Darn That Dream
I don't consider myself a gullible person, but year after year I fall for the same stunt. Ever August I swear to myself that I will not dare to dream of a Cubs contender. I watch as my favorite team fields everyday players like Ronny Cedeno, Neifi Perez, and Steve Buechele, and I swear never, ever to be fooled again. I say, "There is nothing that could happen this offseason that could make me a believer again."
But then I hear about a hot-shot five-tool centerfielder they're going to be bringing up from AAA. I hear that Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are striking out spring hitters by the dozens. I hear that they've signed a bonafide superstar, resigned a bonafide superstar, and drafted a bonafide futurestar. Somehow I can't help myself. I love Dusty Baker! I love Don Baylor! I love Don Zimmer! I am a Lefebvre Belebvre! And I forget that the Cubs haven't had the same centerfielder for three years running since Brian McRae ('94-'96). I forget that they haven't had three consecutive winning seasons since the early '70s. They haven't won 95 games since 1984. How easily I forget!?!
This year was more of the same and by the beginning of June I was cursing myself again for being such a dupe. There was in-fighting, ridiculous baserunning mistakes, and embarrassing fielding miscues. And then something happened. Lou Pinella put a charge into his dirt-stomped cap that would've made Beckham proud, got ejected and suspended, and somehow ignited a 36-20 run which has the Cubs neck and neck with the Brewers headed into the season's final third. They've got the best run differential in the National League. They're hitting with men on base. They're hitting close and late. They're holding leads. They're catching the ball. They're stealing bases and breaking up double plays. Some days it's hard to believe these are the Cubs, even now that Kerry Wood has rejoined the team. Everybody has gotten hot at once. Derrek Lee has as many homers in 17 games since the All-Star break as he did in 84 games leading up to it. Jacque Jones has raised his average 25 pts. since the beginning of July. Carlos Zambrano is 9-2 since he beat the crap out of Michael Barrett, with 82 K's in 81 IP. Ted Lilly is 8-1 over that same span. And, the phenomenal young arm, Carlos Marmol, has a 1.71 ERA with more than twice as many strikeouts (58) as hits allowed (26).
Simultaneously, the Brewers have suffered some significant setbacks. Their ace went on the DL, along with their centerfielder. Their starting second baseman was demoted to AAA. Their closer, unhittable during the first half, has an ERA above 4.00 since the All-Star break. Their primary set-up man has an ERA over 6.00 during that same span. Even MVP candidate Prince Fielder suffered a two-week slump. In July and early August, the Brewers are 13-19.
The Cubs and Brewers play almost identical schedules during the season's final two months. Chicago plays 38 of their final 52 games against teams with losing records. Milwaukee has 33 such pairings. This would appear to benefit the Cubs, the team at full strength and playing well, but their is a saying in Wrigleyville, "Fear the mediocre." Especially the mediocre represented by NL Central rivals. The Cubs have 35 games remaining against NL Central teams. And they have lost more than they have won against the divisions supposed doormats, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
Neither team went crazy at the trade deadline. Milwaukee securing Scott Linebrink to solidify the bullpen and the Cubs grabbing the infinitely acquirable Jason Kendall as Michael Barrett's replacement. A move which inspired this gem,
"They got a proven big-league hitter. Kendall didn't come cheap. But you know what, neither does winning." - Rick Sutcliffe
Only a member of the '84 goats would be able to employ such cubby-bear optimism. After all, Kendall is dead last among everyday MLB catchers in HR, RBI, AVG., OBP., and SLG., keeping in mind that his competition includes such offensive forces as Brian Schneider and Miguel Olivo. But Kendall does handle pitchers well, as evidenced by his league-leading Catcher's ERA of 3.46, he sees a lot of pitches, doesn't strike out much, and is a career .300 hitter against the NL Central.
The question Cubs fans continue to ask themselves, cannot help but ask themselves, is when is the other shoe going to drop. HBO has begun running its sadistic documentary, "Wait 'Til Next Year," regularly, just so that anybody who isn't aware of the Cubs inevitable failures can have an opportunity to experience the tragedies of '69, '84, and '03. It's a good way to get hyper-macho Chicagoans to unapologetically bawl. Those of us who have lived through a few especially spectacular failures cannot help but look over our shoulders for goats, black cats, Lou Brock, cork, or Steve Bartman. We know it's coming. Sometime before the middle of October.
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