The Baby Rays...er...Jays

The anchors at ESPN and sportswriters around the league have been quick to highlight the exploits of this season's most surprising franchises, namely the Padres, Reds, and Athletics.  But one team, which has been more or less the equal to all of them, has gone largely unappreciated: the Toronto Blue Jays.

As we enter the season's seventh week, the Jays have the fourth best record in the American League.  They are also fourth in run differential and tied for third in scoring.  Yet they are faced with a familiar conundrum.  Against the behemoths in their own division - the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox - they have gone 2-7 (.222), against everybody else they are 21-10 (.677).

For the past four seasons, I've tuned in to Toronto's games on a weekly basis, because they were home to my favorite player, Roy Halladay.  I figured in 2010, however, as my Doc fix would be fulfilled by Phillies broadcasts, and the Jays were beginning what could be a prolonged rebuilding process with their new GM, I would find myself looking at that mouthwash green Skydome turf far less frequently.

So far, that hasn't been the case.  Certainly, they are no substitute for Halladay, but Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero are both on the list of young, high-upside pitchers who I enjoy watching develop.  In truth, all five members of the Toronto rotation pique my curiosity.  Toronto leads the American League in strikeouts (by a rather sizable margin).  Brandon Morrow has the best strikeout rate (11.85 K/9) among AL starters, and Romero (9.43 K/9) isn't terribly far behind.  Kevin Gregg has gone 11-for-12 in save opportunities and Scott Downs leads the league in holds.

As Cecil showed last week when he got shelled by the Rangers, these young arms are going to have their ups and downs, but the Blue Jays are developing a pretty stellar collection of pitching talent.  Waiting in the wings are Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan, and Marc Rzepczynski, among others, so there is quantity as well as quality.

On offense, the Jays have been even more impressive, as they are one of the six teams in baseball who have already scored upwards of 200 runs.  Behind surprising power surges from Jose Bautista, Alex Gonzalez, and Vernon Wellls, they lead the league in homers and total bases, and trail only Philadephia in overall slugging.

There aren't many signs that this pace is unsustainable.  Certainly, Gonzalez, who in a dozen seasons has hit 20+ HR only once (in 2004), probably won't maintain his 40 HR pace.  And we could see less significant regressions from Wells and Bautista also.  But while those players started hot, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill started cold.  They will undoubtedly improve significantly on their sub-700 combined OPS from the first six weeks.  The Jays could also get offensive infusions from Edwin Encarnacion, who'll be activated from the D.L. today, and Brett Wallace, the top prospect who's already blasted 11 HR at AAA.

The Jays are near the bottom of the AL in batting average and OBP, despite their run-scoring, but they are also second-to-last in the AL in BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  They are near the middle of the pack in walk rate.  All these factors combine to suggest that while the Jays may not be able to keep pace with the Rays and Red Sox (as they have so far), they will easily stay in the top half of the league in total offense.

I'm utterly against it, but for those who would make the case for some kind of radical realignment, their argument would have to start in Toronto.  Over the past five seasons, the Jays have been near the middle of the pack in total expenditures and, the Wells and Alex Rios megadeals aside (everybody makes mistakes), they've spent the money wisely enough to be a very respectable team.  They've scored more runs than they've allowed in every season since 2005 and are 17 games over .500 during that span.

Yet the truth of their unfortunate geographical situation cannot be denied.  Against the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox they have gone 128-152 (.457).  Against everybody else they've gone 306-265 (.536).  That pretty much tells the story.  If they'd played in any other division, they'd probably have managed at least one or two playoff appearances during the last decade.  As it stands, they haven't made the postseason since they won back-to-back World Series in '92 and '93.

Of course, Tampa Bay faces the same competition and has an even smaller budget, yet found their way to the World Series as recently as 2008 and look primed to make a deep run again this year.  Alex Anthopoulos is no doubt using the Rays as his model.  The Jays are stocking the system with prospects, are buying up the arbitration years of their top young players, and probably won't be signing any more $100 Million contracts for the foreseeable future.  Although 2012 is probably the soonest Jays fans can expect to see a potential contender, there is reason to get excited about the product they're putting on the field currently, and there will be even more reason once the Jays start turning the page on their few remaining mediocre veterans (I'm looking at you, Lyle Overbay).

The fairy-tale ending is this.  In 2014, fresh off collecting a handful of rings with Philadelphia, a 37-year-old future Hall of Famer, Roy Halladay, returns to Toronto on a relatively short and cheap contract.  He's no longer "the best pitcher in baseball," but with his deep repertoire, excellent control, and implacable demeanor he continues to provide quality innings at the back end of the rotation and is a Maddux-esque tutor for the likes of Drabek, Romero, and Cecil, now in their late-twenties and on the cusp of free agency.  If they get to the playoffs, there will be a frightening combination of power and experience on the hill.

There are still some familiar faces.  Vernon Wells, now the left-fielder, is in the final year of his contract.  Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are also nearing the end of their option years (Hill's final Toronto option is '14, Lind's is '16).  But the lineup and defense have also been buoyed by several years of good drafting and development.  Wallace provides legit power from first base.  The speedy Kenny Wilson is batting leadoff and roving center field.  J. P. Arencibia has developed into a premium backstop.  The Jays are a team to be respected and feared, even by the powerhouses in their division.

If you're a Jays fan, or merely somebody who's sick of the Yankees and Red Sox, it's a pretty picture.  Is is realistic?  Well, look at where the Rays were four years ago.  During Joe Maddon's first season, 2006, Tampa Bay lost 101 games and were outscored by nearly 200 runs.  The Jays have a much better basic foundation to build upon.  They'll need Anthopoulos to prove himself capable of good decision-making, first and foremost.  They'll need the Yankees to show some age.  They'll need the Rays rebuilding process (which likely begins either this offseason or next) to be a little slower than expected.  And they'll need a little luck.  But, hey, don't we all.  

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Yankees Eat It!

Wishful thinking, right?  The Yankees, of course, when they're clicking, are the best team in the game, as they proved by posting the best record in baseball during the 2009 regular season, then winning the World Series.  The thing about the '09 Yanks though...they were really, really lucky.  I know, I know, there's no such thing as a "lucky" two-hundred-million-dollar team.  The Steinbrenners paid handsomely for every one of those 114 wins and every one of those pretty rings which now adorn the private showrooms of their exclusive cast of aspiring billionaires.  Fair enough.

What I'd like to point out, however, is that of none of the Yankees starting nine in '09 missed a significant stretch of time.  Sure, A-Rod had the whole flexible hip thing (remember that?) which cost him April, but he still got 535 plate appearances and his annual 30 HR and 100 RBI.  Jorge Posada missed a couple weeks midsummer, but he still got into more than twice as many games as he did in 2008.  And the remainder of the starting seven all played at least 142 games.  Even more importantly, four Yankee pitchers made 30+ starts.  So, I'd like you to guess, how many franchises had eight players get 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers make 30+ starts in '09?

That's right, one and only one: the New York Yankees.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, got basically nothing from Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Smoltz, both of whom were supposed to be big contributors to their rotation, and Tim Wakefield missed most of the second half.  The lost their starting shortstop, Jed Lowrie, for basically the whole season and got a significantly reduced effort from their starting third-baseman, Mike Lowell, whose hip injury limited him to a hobbled 434 at-bats.  J.D. Drew, predictably, and Kevin Youkilis, unpredictably, also missed a few weeks apiece.  And the Red Sox still managed to win 95 games.

So, imagine for a moment that New York had some similarly bad luck.  Say, they lost A. J. Burnett for the season and Joba Chamberlain for half the season, as well as Melky Cabrera, and A-Rod didn't make it back until June, and even at that point, he was only half-strength.  Would they have managed 95 wins?  90?

Are you willing to bet that they can repeat their clean bill of health?

The Halladay Deal

Although the major media outlets have been treating it in much the same way they dealt with the three-team Granderson/Jackson /Scherzer trade last week, the Halladay/Lee/"Bonus Babies" deal is actually three completely independent trades:

#1 - RHSP Roy Halladay (33) goes from Toronto to Philadelphia for RHSP Kyle Drabek (22), OF Michael Taylor (24), & C Travis d'Arnaud (21)

#2 - LHSP Cliff Lee (31) goes from Philadelphia to Seattle for RHRP Phillippe Aumont (21), OF Tyson Gillies (21), & RHSP Juan Ramirez (21)

#3 - OF Michael Taylor (24) goes from Toronto to Oakland for 3B Brett Wallace (23)

The Aces:

On the surface it may be unclear why Philadelphia would want to part ways with Cliff Lee after he was so invaluable to their 2009 World Series run. The difference between Lee and Halladay isn't that huge, especially in the couple seasons. Both are still in their early 30s. Both have Cy Youngs. And both should probably be regarded as among the top half dozen starting pitchers in all of baseball.

Here are their basic lines from 2004-2009:

Lee: 87-48 (.644), 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.80 K/BB, 1134 IP, 13 CG, 21.9 WAR

Halladay: 89-45 (.664), 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.17 K/BB, 1205 IP, 35 CG, 33.8 WAR

Clearly Halladay has been better, but the difference is not extraordinary, especially when you take out the one awful year Lee had (5-8, 6.29) in 2007. The major difference between them at this point in their careers is not their current production or how much they are going to be worth for the next two or three seasons, but rather what they've made thusfar in their careers.

Halladay's first full big-league season was 1999, when he was just 22-years-old, and his first big contract was signed prior to the 2004 season, the year after he won the Cy Young. All told, not including the contract extension Philadelphia is negotiating presently, Doc Halladay has already made over $90,000,000 as a professional baseball player.

Cliff Lee, on the other hand, didn't pitch he first full season in the bigs until he was 25 (in 2004). In 2006 he signed an extension which covered his arbitration years plus a club option for 2010. In total, by the time he hits the free agent market next November, Cliff Lee, despite being only two years younger than Halladay, will have made only $20,000,000, less than a quarter of the good doctor's rake. Lee has, in fact, been one of the best deals in all of baseball over the last five years, so he's going to be looking to make up some of the difference next winter, probably by signing a contract for at least five years and $100,000,000.

Having already made his fortune, Halladay seems most concerned with getting himself hooked to a franchise that has a high likelihood of playing playoff baseball consistently through what remains of his prime. The Phillies are, most certainly, that kind of franchise. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Raul Ibanez, and Placido Polanco are all under Philadelphia's control through at least the 2011 season, so the core of the reigning two-time NL Champs will have at least two more shots at the championship. According to the reports so far, Halladay is preparing to sign a deal for three years and around $60,000,000, with potential options or incentives for more. Although it is still, clearly, a ton of money, it gives the Phillies slightly more flexibility down the road than they would've had if they resigned Lee, especially since next winter they will also be negotiating with Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton, and after 2011 there will be pressure to resign Howard and Hamels.

As I discussed in last week's offseason prospectus, the Mariners have as much financial flexibility as any team at the present moment. While the Phillies have over $120,000,000 in payroll obligations for 2010, the Mariners have only about $60,000,000, despite the fact that Mariners have generally spent $10-15 Million more per season than the Phillies in the recent past. So, if they choose, the Mariners can probably afford to make a very competitive offer for Lee either during the course of 2010 or even after he becomes a free agent next winter, and still have money left over to resign Felix Hernandez and go after a middle-of-the-order hitter.

The Young Arms:

Philadelphia will sending its best pitching prospect to Toronto, but will receive two of Seattle's best, although neither is really on the level with Kyle Drabek. At 21 years of age, Drabek pitched 158 minor league innings in '09 and compiled a 12-3 record, a 3.19 ERA, and 150 strikeouts. Although he may not start 2010 in the Blue Jays rotation, he will almost certainly be there by the end of the year. Phillippe Aumont is a year younger than Drabek and has yet to advance past high A. He's pitched well (3.29 ERA, 9.2 K/9 in 107 IP), but clearly not as well as Drabek. More importantly, he's a reliever. And although he is quite possibly good enough to be groomed as Brad Lidge's successor, relievers, even good ones, aren't nearly as valuable as starters. Juan Ramirez, also just 21-years-old, is currently a starter, but probably not for long. Thusfar he hasn't been very good. At high A in '09 he managed just a 5.12 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. There is still, clearly, time for him to mature, but at the moment, he seems destined to be coverted to a bullpen role.

The Outfielders:

From the Phillies perspective, they are essentially exchanging Michael Taylor for Tyson Gillies. But besides being outfielders and patient hitters, these are not very similar players. For starters, Taylor is older and has already proved his ability to hit in the high minors. In '09, between AA and AAA, he hit .320 with 20 HR, 84 RBI, and a 944 OPS. He's got power, clearly, and some speed as well, swiping 21 bases in 26 attempts, but is corner outfielder. In Oakland, especially now that the Athletics have parted ways with Jack Cust, Taylor could be competing for a starting spot this spring.

Gillies, on the other hand, is probably a year or two away, which is fine for the Phillies, who have Victorino, Werth, and Ibanez for at least next season. Gillies looks like a prototypical centerfielder/leadoff hitter. He stole 44 bags at high A in 2009 and got on base at an exceptional .430 clip. He also had 18 outfield assists and 14 triples. However, so far he doesn't look to have Taylor's power stroke. Gillies hit 9 HR in '09 and had a respectable .486 SLG%, but at the same level, Taylor slugged .560 and hit 9 HR in half as many games. Whereas Taylor probably would've been a potential replacement for Werth or Ibanez, the acquisition of Gillies means that it's Victorino who is more likely to walk next winter.

The Rest:

Brett Wallace hasn't had a big-league at-bat yet, but this is the second time this year he's been involved in a high-profile trade. In July he was the key component of the deal that brought Matt Holliday to St. Louis. Wallace is a power-hitting third baseman (20 HR in '09) with decent plate discipline (.384 OBP in minors), but a pretty long left-handed stroke (116 K in '09). The Jays have clearly been coveting him for awhile. They drafted him in 2005, when he was coming out of high school, but he chose instead to go to Arizona State, where he was twice the Pac-10 Player of the Year. As a star player in college who has now had a full season of minor-league experience, Wallace is probably ready to make the jump to the show, which makes the deal a little odd for Toronto, since they just added Edwin Encarnacion this summer. This may mean that Encarnacion will be dealt or that Adam Lind is going to be testing himself in the outfield next year so that Wallace or Encarnacion can get at-bats at DH.

The Jays have accumulated quite a collection of catchers in recent weeks. A few days ago they signed John Buck after he was non-tendered by the Royals. Just prior to that they signed free agent journeymen backstops Ramon Castro (most famous for catching Mark Buerhle's perfect game in his first start with the White Sox) and Raul Chavez. The Jays already had a top catching prospect at AAA in J. P. Arencibia and now they've also added Travis d'Arnaud, who's not likely to break into the bigs before 2012. He's got a little pop (13 HR @ A), but there's not a whole lot else to say about him at this point.