Offseason Prospectus #25: The Texas Rangers

In 2009 the Rangers had their best finish of the decade, despite the fact that they scored fewer runs than they had in any season since 1995.  The key, of course, was that they also allowed fewer runs than they had in any season since '95, thanks to dramatic improvements in pitching and defense.  While Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, and Jack Zduriencik have been given, appropriately, a great deal of credit for spearheading the recent movement away from evaluation based primarily on offense, equal billing should go to the Rangers administration led by Nolan Ryan, Jon Daniels, and Ron Washington.  Under their leadership, Texas has shifted the focus away from the homer-happy atmosphere that dominated most of the decade in Arlington, and the results thusfar have been very encouraging.

Texas's team ERA in 2009 was 4.38, good for 8th in the American League, which doesn't seem that great until you consider that Texas finished dead last the previous season and has not finished with an ERA below 4.50 since 1993, which was, coincidently, Ryan's last season as a player, and the season before the opening of The Smallpark at Arlington.  The Rangers pitchers were actually at their best during the midsummer months which usually coincide with a spike in long balls, as the staff went 17-8 with a 3.59 ERA in July.

There are many reasons to be excited about the Rangers prospects in 2010, as nobody on the staff is over thirty except for Frank Francisco (30) and Darren Oliver (39).  The Rangers were admirably cautious with their youngsters in '09, not allowing any of them to throw much over 150 innings.  Nevertheless, I would urge Rangers fans to temper their expectations.  It's a team I'll be watching with extraordinary interest and anticipation next season, but teams build on young players are notoriously inconsistent.  The 2010 Rangers are in some ways reminiscent of the 2008 Rays, who rode their young core all the way to the World Series.  Unfortunately, they are equally reminiscent of the 2008 D-Backs, a young team that backtracked considerably after a surprisingly strong showing in '07.