Plowing The Depths of the Designated Hitting Market

When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work.  You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon.  As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues.  Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:

Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB

However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.

ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting.  It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.

However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math.  There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October.  Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned.  Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain.  Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base.  Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked.  John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.

The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson.  That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season.  The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.

If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings.  Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball.  It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.

I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players.  Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.

This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings.  Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.

I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:

Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH

Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).

Toronto Blue Jays:

Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco.  Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced.  Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs.  But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.

The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities.  Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs.  And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.

The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that.  Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career).  Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly).  The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B.  Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.

None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos.  He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll.  One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).

Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.

Minnesota Twins:

The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round.  The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder."  Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:

Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)

Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.

Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders.  Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

...Oh, here's where all the sluggers are hiding. (Hot Stove Preview)

As promised, a peak at the most mouthwatering Hot Stove trade targets...

1. Justin Upton - OF - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Everybody & Nobody

Perhaps the greatest indication yet of Upton's superlative talent is the extent to which all other Hot Stove storylines - Cliff Lee's free agency, Derek Jeter's squabble with the Yankees, the Dan Uggla trade, etc. - have been put on the backburner since Kevin Towers announced his willingness to listen to offers for the D-Backs 23-year-old outfielder.  Towers, in his first year as Arizona's GM, is probably just trying to raise awareness for his organization and facilitate conversations with his fellow execs.

It's true that he may also see a very real opportunity for the D-Backs in the immediate future, even though they share a division with the reigning World Champs.  There's certainly good cause to believe the Giants were a bit fortunate this year and they've got a lot of rebuilding to do on offense this winter.  I would go so far as to say the Padres weren't only fortunate, but fluky, and are likely to get worse before they get better.  The Dodgers have quite a bit of stockpiled talent, but the McCourt divorce has been keeping them hamstrung.  The Rockies are the only franchise in the NL West that is truly primed to contend in 2011 and beyond, regardless of what happens this offseason.

With that picture in mind, I can understand how Towers might believe that with a few cagey maneuvers he could get the D-Backs in the postseason as soon as next year.  However, I don't see why that plan wouldn't include one of the game's most promising young players.  If, in 2011, Upton develops into the superstar we all assume he will eventually become, he's almost certain to be worth more than anything he could yield in a trade right now, following a disappointing season in which he was slowed by injuries.  The D-Backs have Upton wrapped up for five more seasons, the next three of which come at an extremely reasonable price.  They also have already made a significant time investment.  They promoted him quickly and allowed him to mature at the major-league level under the assumption it would expedite his development as both a player and a leader.  Even though Towers wasn't in charge when those decisions were made, I think he'd be remiss to squander that time and energy for anything short of an absolute fleecing (we're talking a Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, & Matt Joyce type of fleecing). None of the organizations who have the depth of talent Towers would be interested are going to fall for his ruse, not for a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since he reached the majors.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

2. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres

Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers

A year ago this time pretty much everybody was convinced Gonzo would be in Boston in time for the 2010 pennant race.  However, the Padres surprised everybody (including themselves?) by staying the hunt for the NL West title all the way to the season's final day.  It may have been a curse disguised as a blessing.  In the end, San Diego didn't get to play in October, and now Gonzalez is less than a year from free agency and his trade value is diminishing with each passing day.  If they Padres deal him, they'll still probably get at least two solid prospects in return, but they'll be essentially throwing in the towel for 2011.  It's a hard admission to make to their fan base.

Gonzo is likely destined for a Mark Teixeira-sized contract, which is why San Diego can't hope to retain him.  It could also limit his trade market.  Many teams will be interested, but few will be willing to offer top prospects merely for a one-year rental.  Typical free-spenders like the Yankees and Phillies will sit this one out because they've already got long-term commitments at first base.

If and when Gonzo is made available, I expect Boston will make every effort to acquire him, but their farm system will have a hard time competing with those of Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Baltimore, if those teams do get involved.  San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, no doubt knows this, so he'll wait until later in the offseason to make a deal, hoping to identify more desperate franchises, and fueling a few more ticket sales as an added bonus.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, & Josh Reddick

3. Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals

Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona D-Backs, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds

I think there's real fuel for this Hot Stove fire.  While I don't agree with their diagnosis, Kansas City's front office clearly believes the Royals are just a few years away from contention.  Unfortunately for them, their Cy Young-winning Ace is just two years from free agency.  Frankly, for everybody involved, a trade makes sense.  Greinke gets to spend his prime years pitching for a team that has a chance and in return the Royals save some money and get a couple of players whose ETA is in line with their 2013 target.

Obviously, there's no shortage of teams in the market for a young, dominant starter.  And, because he's got two full years remaining under contract, his suitors won't necessarily be limited to teams with a chance of signing him to an extension.  I do think, however, Greinke's history of anxiety and depression will play a role, perhaps limiting the interest from franchises in large and/or unfriendly media markets.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie, Carlos Gomez, & D'Vontrey Richardson

4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers

I think we can say with relative certainty that Fielder is going to test the market next offseason.  For starters, his agent is Scott Boras.  We all know how much Boras likes to set precedents and Fielder is a potential precedent-setting player.  There's a strong chance Fielder will hit his 200th homer before his 27th birthday.  In five full seasons in the majors he's averaged 38 homers and 105 RBI.  He's dramatically improved his plate discipline (led the NL in walks in 2010) and his defense (it's still not great, but its better).  He's kept his weight in check.  He's shown great leadership.  And, perhaps most importantly, he's missed a grand total of 13 games...in five seasons!

He's got a long and impressive track record, especially for a player his age, and you can be certain Boras will make somebody pay for it.  He will surely get a contract larger than any in the history of his position...so far (there's a good chance Pujols is going to set a new record before Fielder hits the market).  So, while Fielder is a middle-of-the-order presence rivaled by only a handful of players in the entire game, few GMs will be willing to mortgage the farm knowing that either a.) they'll lose him in 2012 or b.) they'll have to pay him something near $200 Million.

Milwaukee will certainly shop him all winter long, but if they can solve their pitching woes some other way (enter Greinke), I expect they'll stick with Prince until the end and settle for a couple of compensation picks a year from now.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

5. Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants,

Imagine this: You're a major-league GM (pretty good start, right?).  For the last week, you've been contemplating whether you're ready to commit a couple of your hard-won prospects to a trade for Justin Upton.  At last, you're ready to pull the trigger.  You're still anxious, but you figure, risks like this are a necessary part of doing business.  So you punch up Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers, and you lay out your offer in no uncertain terms...

...and then he tries the ole bait-and-switch!  "I don't know if I ready to part with Justin," he says, "but have you considered Mark Reynolds?"

Pros: Nobody can deny Mark Reynolds has legitimate 40 HR power.  When healthy, he's also got surprising speed and he's made dramatic progress on defense, posting his first positive UZR (2.2) in 2010.  He's got four years of major-league experience, but he just turned 27, so there's a high likelihood his best years are still in front of him.  He's under contract for three more seasons at a fairly reasonable price (roughly $8 Mil./yr.).

Cons: He's led the National Leage in strikeouts for three years running.  In 2010, he became the first National League player in three decades get enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but finish below the Mendoza line (.198). (By the way, trivia answer is Ivan de Jesus, Cubs, 1981.)  He's spent his entire career so far playing in a launching pad (his career SLG% is 46 points higher at home).  He missed some games last season with hamstring problems and his stolen base totals suffered dramatically.  And, last but not least, he's not Justin Upton.

Towers "shopping" of Upton may actually diminish the market for Reynolds.  But the main thing diminishing the market for Reynolds is that he's coming off the worst year of his young career.  Perhaps this is an ideal opportunity to "buy low"?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Bell & Brandon Wood

Here's some quick hits to round out the Top Ten...

6. Carlos Beltran - CF/RF - New York Mets

Beltran and Mets both looking for a fresh start.  It's a contract year for the 34-year-old outfielder, so he's motivated.  Is he healthy?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Kansas City Royals for Chris Getz, Juan Cruz, & cash

7. Heath Bell - CL - San Diego Padres

Padres have a boatload of relievers ready to move into the 9th.  Bell's market will never be better than it is right now.  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Atlanta Braves for Kyle Rose & Zeke Spruill

8. Josh Willingham - OF - Washington Nationals

Wills quietly had a couple of very strong seasons with the Nats and has been much better than you realize over the course of his career.  He's got one more year before free agency.  This could be a low-risk, high-reward rental.  Hey, Brian Sabean, THIS ONE'S FOR YOU!!!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Detroit Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez & Scott Sizemore

9. Mike Napoli - C - Los Angeles Angels

He's never gotten on well with Scioscia, because of his defensive limitations, but there's no denying the kid can hit, and he's still young.  Could make a great C/DH combo for teams looking to add power.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Toronto Blue Jays for Fred Lewis & Casey Janssen

10. Jason Bartlett - SS - Tampa Bay Rays

Reid Brignac & Tim Beckham are demanding playing time and Bartlett is coming off the worst year of his career.  He can be had for a song.  The question is, even then, is he worth it?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to San Francisco Giants for Dan Runzler